UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-Q
Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the Quarterly Period Ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018
   
Commission File No. 1-13653 

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Incorporated under the Laws of Ohio IRS Employer I.D. No. 31-1544320
301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202
(513) 579-2121
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes þ No ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months. Yes þ No ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
Large accelerated filer  þ                        Accelerated filer  ¨                        Non-accelerated filer  ¨
Smaller reporting company  ¨                        Emerging growth company  ¨
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ¨ No þ
As of AugustNovember 1, 2018, there were 89,087,66389,253,183 shares of the Registrant’s Common Stock outstanding, excluding 14.9 million shares owned by subsidiaries.



Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

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Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

PART I
ITEM I — FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET (UNAUDITED)
(Dollars in Millions)
June 30,
2018
 December 31,
2017
September 30,
2018
 December 31,
2017
Assets:      
Cash and cash equivalents$1,810
 $2,338
$2,009
 $2,338
Investments:      
Fixed maturities, available for sale at fair value (amortized cost — $39,244 and $37,038)39,648
 38,379
Fixed maturities, available for sale at fair value (amortized cost — $40,053 and $37,038)40,244
 38,379
Fixed maturities, trading at fair value137
 348
103
 348
Equity securities, at fair value1,777
 1,662
1,827
 1,662
Investments accounted for using the equity method1,194
 999
1,289
 999
Mortgage loans1,147
 1,125
1,152
 1,125
Policy loans179
 184
176
 184
Equity index call options615
 701
759
 701
Real estate and other investments272
 312
282
 312
Total cash and investments46,779
 46,048
47,841
 46,048
Recoverables from reinsurers3,073
 3,369
3,352
 3,369
Prepaid reinsurance premiums645
 600
717
 600
Agents’ balances and premiums receivable1,266
 1,146
1,299
 1,146
Deferred policy acquisition costs1,582
 1,216
1,669
 1,216
Assets of managed investment entities5,032
 4,902
4,998
 4,902
Other receivables1,048
 1,030
1,633
 1,030
Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)636
 644
650
 644
Other assets1,574
 1,504
1,832
 1,504
Goodwill199
 199
199
 199
Total assets$61,834
 $60,658
$64,190
 $60,658
      
Liabilities and Equity:      
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses$9,093
 $9,678
$9,670
 $9,678
Unearned premiums2,539
 2,410
2,740
 2,410
Annuity benefits accumulated34,886
 33,316
35,958
 33,316
Life, accident and health reserves647
 658
643
 658
Payable to reinsurers721
 743
932
 743
Liabilities of managed investment entities4,840
 4,687
4,807
 4,687
Long-term debt1,301
 1,301
1,302
 1,301
Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)636
 644
650
 644
Other liabilities2,087
 1,887
2,324
 1,887
Total liabilities56,750
 55,324
59,026
 55,324
      
Redeemable noncontrolling interests
 3

 3
      
Shareholders’ equity:      
Common Stock, no par value
— 200,000,000 shares authorized
— 89,072,114 and 88,275,460 shares outstanding
89
 88
Common Stock, no par value
— 200,000,000 shares authorized
— 89,188,708 and 88,275,460 shares outstanding
89
 88
Capital surplus1,220
 1,181
1,231
 1,181
Retained earnings3,628
 3,248
3,800
 3,248
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax147
 813
44
 813
Total shareholders’ equity5,084
 5,330
5,164
 5,330
Noncontrolling interests
 1

 1
Total equity5,084
 5,331
5,164
 5,331
Total liabilities and equity$61,834
 $60,658
$64,190
 $60,658

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF EARNINGS (UNAUDITED)
(In Millions, Except Per Share Data)
Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017
Revenues:              
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums$1,161
 $1,065
 $2,268
 $2,087
$1,327
 $1,267
 $3,595
 $3,354
Life, accident and health net earned premiums6
 5
 12
 11
6
 6
 18
 17
Net investment income530
 460
 1,025
 895
527
 471
 1,552
 1,366
Realized gains (losses) on securities (*)31
 8
 (62) 11
34
 (12) (28) (1)
Income (loss) of managed investment entities:              
Investment income64
 50
 122
 101
65
 54
 187
 155
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities(2) 11
 (5) 11
(5) 1
 (10) 12
Other income43
 47
 92
 106
54
 48
 146
 154
Total revenues1,833
 1,646
 3,452
 3,222
2,008
 1,835
 5,460
 5,057
              
Costs and Expenses:              
Property and casualty insurance:              
Losses and loss adjustment expenses693
 635
 1,334
 1,244
872
 995
 2,206
 2,239
Commissions and other underwriting expenses400
 366
 781
 705
424
 357
 1,205
 1,062
Annuity benefits260
 224
 442
 420
222
 215
 664
 635
Life, accident and health benefits11
 6
 22
 15
10
 6
 32
 21
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses50
 48
 132
 101
71
 55
 203
 156
Interest charges on borrowed money16
 23
 31
 44
15
 21
 46
 65
Expenses of managed investment entities54
 51
 102
 92
52
 45
 154
 137
Other expenses89
 88
 174
 173
98
 112
 272
 285
Total costs and expenses1,573
 1,441
 3,018
 2,794
1,764
 1,806
 4,782
 4,600
Earnings before income taxes260
 205
 434
 428
244
 29
 678
 457
Provision for income taxes52
 60
 85
 128
41
 18
 126
 146
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests208
 145
 349
 300
203
 11
 552
 311
Less: Net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests(2) 
 (6) 2
(1) 
 (7) 2
Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders$210
 $145
 $355
 $298
$204
 $11
 $559
 $309
              
Earnings Attributable to Shareholders per Common Share:              
Basic$2.36
 $1.64
 $3.99
 $3.40
$2.30
 $0.13
 $6.29
 $3.52
Diluted$2.31
 $1.61
 $3.92
 $3.32
$2.26
 $0.13
 $6.17
 $3.44
Average number of Common Shares:              
Basic89.0
 87.8
 88.8
 87.5
89.1
 88.1
 88.9
 87.7
Diluted90.7
 89.8
 90.5
 89.6
90.7
 90.0
 90.6
 89.7
              
Cash dividends per Common Share$1.85
 $1.8125
 $2.20
 $2.125
$0.35
 $0.3125
 $2.55
 $2.4375
________________________________________              
(*) Consists of the following:              
Realized gains (losses) before impairments$31
 $17
 $(61) $26
$36
 $26
 $(25) $52
              
Losses on securities with impairment
 (10) (1) (16)(2) (38) (3) (54)
Non-credit portion recognized in other comprehensive income (loss)
 1
 
 1

 
 
 1
Impairment charges recognized in earnings
 (9) (1) (15)(2) (38) (3) (53)
Total realized gains (losses) on securities$31
 $8
 $(62) $11
$34
 $(12) $(28) $(1)

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (UNAUDITED)
(In Millions)
 
Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests$208
 $145
 $349
 $300
$203
 $11
 $552
 $311
Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax:              
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:              
Unrealized holding gains (losses) on securities arising during the period(148) 115
 (427) 240
(96) 59
 (523) 299
Reclassification adjustment for realized gains included in net earnings(3) (5) (1) (5)
Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings(2) 8
 (3) 3
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities(151) 110
 (428) 235
(98) 67
 (526) 302
Net unrealized gains (losses) on cash flow hedges(3) 2
 (14) 1
(5) 
 (19) 1
Foreign currency translation adjustments(4) 4
 (3) 4

 7
 (3) 11
Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax(158) 116
 (445) 240
(103) 74
 (548) 314
Total comprehensive income (loss), net of tax50
 261
 (96) 540
Total comprehensive income, net of tax100
 85
 4
 625
Less: Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests(2) 
 (6) 2
(1) 
 (7) 2
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to shareholders$52
 $261
 $(90) $538
Comprehensive income attributable to shareholders$101
 $85
 $11
 $623


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY (UNAUDITED)
(Dollars in Millions)
 
   Shareholders’ Equity     Redeemable   Shareholders’ Equity     Redeemable
Common
Shares
  
Common Stock
and Capital
Surplus
 
Retained
Earnings
 
Accumulated
Other Comp.
Income (Loss)
 Total 
Noncon-
trolling
Interests
 
Total
Equity
 Noncon-
trolling
Interests
Common
Shares
  
Common Stock
and Capital
Surplus
 
Retained
Earnings
 
Accumulated
Other Comp.
Income (Loss)
 Total 
Noncon-
trolling
Interests
 
Total
Equity
 Noncon-
trolling
Interests
Balance at December 31, 201788,275,460
  $1,269
 $3,248
 $813
 $5,330
 $1
 $5,331
 $3
88,275,460
  $1,269
 $3,248
 $813
 $5,330
 $1
 $5,331
 $3
Cumulative effect of accounting change
  
 225
 (221) 4
 
 4
 

  
 225
 (221) 4
 
 4
 
Net earnings (losses)
  
 355
 
 355
 (1) 354
 (5)
  
 559
 
 559
 (1) 558
 (6)
Other comprehensive loss
  
 
 (445) (445) 
 (445) 

  
 
 (548) (548) 
 (548) 
Dividends on Common Stock
  
 (196) 
 (196) 
 (196) 

  
 (227) 
 (227) 
 (227) 
Shares issued:                                
Exercise of stock options531,726
  19
 
 
 19
 
 19
 
635,364
  23
 
 
 23
 
 23
 
Restricted stock awards200,625
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
200,625
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other benefit plans73,676
  8
 
 
 8
 
 8
 
86,229
  10
 
 
 10
 
 10
 
Dividend reinvestment plan18,006
  2
 
 
 2
 
 2
 
21,072
  2
 
 
 2
 
 2
 
Stock-based compensation expense
  11
 
 
 11
 
 11
 

  17
 
 
 17
 
 17
 
Shares exchanged — benefit plans(24,310)  
 (2) 
 (2) 
 (2) 
(26,520)  (1) (2) 
 (3) 
 (3) 
Forfeitures of restricted stock(3,069)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
(3,522)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other
  
 (2) 
 (2) 
 (2) 2

  
 (3) 
 (3) 
 (3) 3
Balance at June 30, 201889,072,114
  $1,309
 $3,628
 $147
 $5,084
 $
 $5,084
 $
Balance at September 30, 201889,188,708
  $1,320
 $3,800
 $44
 $5,164
 $
 $5,164
 $
                                
Balance at December 31, 201686,924,399
  $1,198
 $3,343
 $375
 $4,916
 $3
 $4,919
 $
86,924,399
  $1,198
 $3,343
 $375
 $4,916
 $3
 $4,919
 $
Net earnings
  
 298
 
 298
 2
 300
 

  
 309
 
 309
 2
 311
 
Other comprehensive income
  
 
 240
 240
 
 240
 

  
 
 314
 314
 
 314
 
Dividends on Common Stock
  
 (187) 
 (187) 
 (187) 

  
 (214) 
 (214) 
 (214) 
Shares issued:         
   
           
   
  
Exercise of stock options792,288
  26
 
 
 26
 
 26
 
870,022
  29
 
 
 29
 
 29
 
Restricted stock awards232,250
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
232,250
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other benefit plans75,381
  7
 
 
 7
 
 7
 
85,190
  8
 
 
 8
 
 8
 
Dividend reinvestment plan19,516
  2
 
 
 2
 
 2
 
22,243
  2
 
 
 2
 
 2
 
Stock-based compensation expense
  13
 
 
 13
 
 13
 

  18
 
 
 18
 
 18
 
Shares exchanged — benefit plans(32,509)  
 (3) 
 (3) 
 (3) 
(34,922)  
 (3) 
 (3) 
 (3) 
Forfeitures of restricted stock(4,073)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
(6,388)  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other
  
 
 
 
 (5) (5) 

  
 
 
 
 (5) (5) 
Balance at June 30, 201788,007,252
  $1,246
 $3,451
 $615
 $5,312
 $
 $5,312
 $
Balance at September 30, 201788,092,794
  $1,255
 $3,435
 $689
 $5,379
 $
 $5,379
 $

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (UNAUDITED)
(In Millions)
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Operating Activities:      
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests$349
 $300
$552
 $311
Adjustments:      
Depreciation and amortization106
 69
163
 105
Annuity benefits442
 420
664
 635
Realized (gains) losses on investing activities64
 (28)28
 (18)
Net sales of trading securities83
 31
116
 5
Deferred annuity and life policy acquisition costs(127) (133)(192) (177)
Change in:      
Reinsurance and other receivables72
 (291)(868) (1,467)
Other assets(16) (8)(257) (59)
Insurance claims and reserves(268) 275
507
 1,372
Payable to reinsurers(22) 47
189
 272
Other liabilities55
 (32)346
 
Managed investment entities’ assets/liabilities138
 (72)104
 14
Other operating activities, net(53) (4)(75) 
Net cash provided by operating activities823
 574
1,277
 993
      
Investing Activities:      
Purchases of:      
Fixed maturities(4,549) (5,387)(6,700) (7,163)
Equity securities(248) (44)(342) (73)
Mortgage loans(90) (146)(112) (149)
Equity index options and other investments(446) (360)(695) (594)
Real estate, property and equipment(44) (30)(60) (46)
Proceeds from:      
Maturities and redemptions of fixed maturities2,283
 3,285
3,516
 4,690
Repayments of mortgage loans68
 110
87
 191
Sales of fixed maturities203
 150
275
 179
Sales of equity securities106
 50
150
 97
Sales and settlements of equity index options and other investments446
 360
688
 565
Sales of real estate, property and equipment1
 53
3
 54
Managed investment entities:      
Purchases of investments(1,261) (1,780)(1,674) (2,330)
Proceeds from sales and redemptions of investments1,035
 1,738
1,485
 2,343
Other investing activities, net11
 7
4
 6
Net cash used in investing activities(2,485) (1,994)(3,375) (2,230)
      
Financing Activities:      
Annuity receipts2,547
 2,556
3,925
 3,432
Annuity surrenders, benefits and withdrawals(1,372) (1,161)(2,101) (1,725)
Net transfers from variable annuity assets21
 30
35
 43
Additional long-term borrowings
 345

 345
Reductions of long-term debt
 (230)
 (355)
Issuances of managed investment entities’ liabilities1,572
 977
1,572
 1,926
Retirements of managed investment entities’ liabilities(1,461) (835)(1,463) (1,998)
Issuances of Common Stock21
 27
26
 30
Cash dividends paid on Common Stock(194) (185)(225) (212)
Other financing activities, net
 (4)
 (7)
Net cash provided by financing activities1,134
 1,520
1,769
 1,479
Net Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents(528) 100
(329) 242
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period2,338
 2,107
2,338
 2,107
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period$1,810
 $2,207
$2,009
 $2,349

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 


INDEX TO NOTES
      
A.Accounting Policies H.Goodwill and Other Intangibles 
B.Segments of Operations I.Long-Term Debt 
C.Fair Value Measurements J.Redeemable Noncontrolling Interests 
D.Investments K.Shareholders’ Equity 
E.Derivatives L.Income Taxes 
F.Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs M.Contingencies 
G.Managed Investment Entities N.Insurance 
      

A.     Accounting Policies

Basis of Presentation   The accompanying consolidated financial statements for American Financial Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries (“AFG”) are unaudited; however, management believes that all adjustments (consisting only of normal recurring accruals unless otherwise disclosed herein) necessary for fair presentation have been made. The results of operations for interim periods are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for the year. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the instructions to Form 10-Q and, therefore, do not include all information and footnotes necessary to be in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).
 
Certain reclassifications have been made to prior periods to conform to the current year’s presentation. All significant intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated. The results of operations of companies since their formation or acquisition are included in the consolidated financial statements. Events or transactions occurring subsequent to JuneSeptember 30, 2018, and prior to the filing of this Form 10-Q, have been evaluated for potential recognition or disclosure herein.
 
The preparation of the financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Changes in circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimates.

Fair Value Measurements   Accounting standards define fair value as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability (an exit price) in an orderly transaction between market participants on the measurement date. The standards establish a hierarchy of valuation techniques based on whether the assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability (“inputs”) are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect AFG’s assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability. AFG did not have any significant nonrecurring fair value measurements in the first sixnine months of 2018.

Investments On January 1, 2018, AFG adopted Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) 2016-01, which requires all equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method to be reported at fair value with holding gains and losses recognized in net earnings. At December 31, 2017, AFG had $1.60 billion in equity securities classified as “available for sale” under the prior guidance with holding gains and losses included in accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”) instead of net earnings. At the date of adoption, the $221 million net unrealized gain on equity securities included in AOCI was reclassified to retained earnings as the cumulative effect of an accounting change. The cumulative effect of the accounting change also includes the net unrealized gain on AFG’s small number of limited partnerships and similar investments carried at cost under the prior guidance that are carried at fair value through net earnings under the new guidance ($4 million net of tax at the date of adoption).

Holding gains and losses on equity securities carried at fair value under ASU 2016-01 are generally recorded in realized gains (losses) on securities. However, prior to the adoption of the new guidance, AFG classified a small portion of its equity securities as “trading” and reported those investments at fair value with holding gains and losses recognized in net investment income. These investments consisted primarily of equity securities held to offset the impact of changes in the stock market on employee benefit plans that are impacted by stock market performance and totaled $62 million at December 31, 2017. Following the adoption of the new guidance, AFG continues to record holding gains and losses on these securities, as well as its small portfolio of limited partnerships and similar investments carried at fair value under the new guidance and certain other securities classified at purchase as “fair value through net investment income” in net investment income.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Under the new guidance, AFG recorded holding losses of $57$35 million on equity securities in net earnings during the first sixnine months of 2018 on securities that were still owned at JuneSeptember 30, 2018. Under the prior guidance, these holding losses would have been recorded in AOCI (with the exception of any impairment charge that may have been recorded). Because almost all of the equity securities impacted by the new guidance were carried at fair value through AOCI under the prior guidance, the adoption of the new guidance did not have a material impact on AFG’s financial position.

Fixed maturity securities classified as “available for sale” are reported at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Fixed maturity securities classified as “trading” are reported at fair value with changes in unrealized holding gains or losses during the period included in net investment income. Mortgage and policy loans are carried primarily at the aggregate unpaid balance.

Premiums and discounts on fixed maturity securities are amortized using the effective interest method. Mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) are amortized over a period based on estimated future principal payments, including prepayments. Prepayment assumptions are reviewed periodically and adjusted to reflect actual prepayments and changes in expectations.

Limited partnerships and similar investments are generally accounted for using the equity method of accounting. Under the equity method, AFG records its share of the earnings or losses of the investee based on when they are reported by the investee in its financial statements rather than in the period in which the investee declares a dividend. AFG’s share of the earnings or losses from equity method investments is generally recorded on a quarter lag due to the timing of the receipt of the investee’s financial statements. AFG’s equity in the earnings (losses) of limited partnerships and similar investments is included in net investment income.

Gains or losses on fixed maturity securities are determined on the specific identification basis. When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be other-than-temporary at the balance sheet date, a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (included in realized gains (losses) on securities) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced. If management can assert that it does not intend to sell an impaired fixed maturity security and it is not more likely than not that it will have to sell the security before recovery of its amortized cost basis, then the other-than-temporary impairment is separated into two components: (i) the amount related to credit losses (recorded in earnings) and (ii) the amount related to all other factors (recorded in other comprehensive income). The credit-related portion of an other-than-temporary impairment is measured by comparing a security’s amortized cost to the present value of its current expected cash flows discounted at its effective yield prior to the impairment charge. Both components are shown in the statement of earnings. If management intends to sell an impaired security, or it is more likely than not that it will be required to sell the security before recovery, an impairment charge to earnings is recorded to reduce the amortized cost of that security to fair value.

Derivatives   Derivatives included in AFG’s Balance Sheet are recorded at fair value. Changes in fair value of derivatives are included in earnings, unless the derivatives are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges. Derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting under GAAP consist primarily of (i) components of certain fixed maturity securities (primarily interest-only MBS) and (ii) the equity-based component of certain annuity products (included in annuity benefits accumulated) and related equity index options designed to be consistent with the characteristics of the liabilities and used to mitigate the risk embedded in those annuity products.

To qualify for hedge accounting, at the inception of a derivative contract, AFG formally documents the relationship between the terms of the hedge and the hedged items and its risk management objective. This documentation includes defining how hedge effectiveness and ineffectiveness will be measured on a retrospective and prospective basis.

Changes in the fair value of derivatives that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges are recorded in AOCI and are reclassified into earnings when the variability of the cash flows from the hedged items impacts earnings. Any hedge ineffectiveness is immediately recorded in current period earnings. When the change in the fair value of a qualifying cash flow hedge is included in earnings, it is included in the same line item in the statement of earnings as the cash flows from the hedged item. AFG uses interest rate swaps that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges to mitigate interest rate risk related to certain floating-rate securities included in AFG’s portfolio of fixed maturity securities.

For derivatives that are designated and qualify as highly effective fair value hedges, changes in the fair value of the derivative, along with changes in the fair value of the hedged item attributable to the hedged risk, are recognized in current period earnings.


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Goodwill   Goodwill represents the excess of cost of subsidiaries over AFG’s equity in their underlying net assets. Goodwill is not amortized, but is subject to an impairment test at least annually. An entity is not required to complete the quantitative annual goodwill impairment test on a reporting unit if the entity elects to perform a qualitative analysis and determines that it is more likely than not that the reporting unit’s fair value exceeds its carrying amount.
 
Reinsurance   Amounts recoverable from reinsurers are estimated in a manner consistent with the claim liability associated with the reinsured policies. AFG’s property and casualty insurance subsidiaries report as assets (i) the estimated reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses, including an estimate for losses incurred but not reported, and (ii) amounts paid or due to reinsurers applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. Payable to reinsurers includes ceded premiums due to reinsurers, as well as ceded premiums retained by AFG’s property and casualty insurance subsidiaries under contracts to fund ceded losses as they become due. AFG’s insurance subsidiaries also assume reinsurance from other companies. Earnings on reinsurance assumed is recognized based on information received from ceding companies.
 
An AFG subsidiary cedes life insurance policies to a third party on a funds withheld basis whereby the subsidiary retains the assets (securities) associated with the reinsurance contract. Interest is credited to the reinsurer based on the actual investment performance of the retained assets. This reinsurance contract is considered to contain an embedded derivative (that must be adjusted to fair value) because the yield on the payable is based on a specific block of the ceding company’s assets, rather than the overall creditworthiness of the ceding company. AFG determined that changes in the fair value of the underlying portfolio of fixed maturity securities is an appropriate measure of the value of the embedded derivative. The securities related to this contract are classified as “trading.” The adjustment to fair value on the embedded derivative offsets the investment income recorded on the adjustment to fair value of the related trading portfolio.
 
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs (“DPAC”)   Policy acquisition costs (principally commissions, premium taxes and certain underwriting and policy issuance costs) directly related to the successful acquisition or renewal of an insurance contract are deferred. DPAC also includes capitalized costs associated with sales inducements offered to fixed annuity policyholders such as enhanced interest rates and premium and persistency bonuses.
 
For the property and casualty companies, DPAC is limited based upon recoverability without any consideration for anticipated investment income and is charged against income ratably over the terms of the related policies. A premium deficiency is recognized if the sum of expected claims costs, claims adjustment expenses and unamortized acquisition costs exceed the related unearned premiums. A premium deficiency is first recognized by charging any unamortized acquisition costs to expense to the extent required to eliminate the deficiency. If the premium deficiency is greater than unamortized acquisition costs, a liability is accrued for the excess deficiency and reported with unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses.

DPAC related to annuities is deferred to the extent deemed recoverable and amortized, with interest, in relation to the present value of actual and expected gross profits on the policies. Expected gross profits consist principally of estimated future investment margin (estimated future net investment income less interest credited on policyholder funds) and surrender, mortality, and other life and annuity policy charges, less death, annuitization and guaranteed withdrawal benefits in excess of account balances and estimated future policy administration expenses. To the extent that realized gains and losses result in adjustments to the amortization of DPAC related to annuities, such adjustments are reflected as components of realized gains (losses) on securities.

DPAC related to traditional life and health insurance is amortized over the expected premium paying period of the related policies, in proportion to the ratio of annual premium revenues to total anticipated premium revenues. See Life, Accident and Health Reserves below for details on the impact of loss recognition on the accounting for traditional life and health insurance contracts.

DPAC includes the present value of future profits on business in force of annuity and life, accident and health insurance companies acquired (“PVFP”). PVFP represents the portion of the costs to acquire companies that is allocated to the value of the right to receive future cash flows from insurance contracts existing at the date of acquisition. PVFP is amortized with interest in relation to expected gross profits of the acquired policies for annuities and universal life products and in relation to the premium paying period for traditional life and health insurance products.

DPAC and certain other balance sheet amounts related to annuity and life businesses are also adjusted, net of tax, for the change in expense that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. These adjustments are included in unrealized gains (losses) on marketable securities, a component of AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet.


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Managed Investment Entities   A company is considered the primary beneficiary of, and therefore must consolidate, a variable interest entity (“VIE”) based primarily on its ability to direct the activities of the VIE that most significantly impact that entity’s economic performance and the obligation to absorb losses of, or receive benefits from, the entity that could potentially be significant to the VIE.
 
AFG manages, and has investments in, collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”) that are VIEs (see Note G — “Managed Investment Entities). AFG has determined that it is the primary beneficiary of the CLOs because (i) its role as asset manager gives it the power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of the CLOs and (ii) through its investment in the CLO debt tranches, it has exposure to CLO losses (limited to the amount AFG invested) and the right to receive CLO benefits that could potentially be significant to the CLOs.

Because AFG has no right to use the CLO assets and no obligation to pay the CLO liabilities, the assets and liabilities of the CLOs are shown separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. AFG has elected the fair value option for reporting on the CLO assets and liabilities to improve the transparency of financial reporting related to the CLOs. The net gain or loss from accounting for the CLO assets and liabilities at fair value is presented separately in AFG’s Statement of Earnings.

The fair values of a CLO’s assets may differ from the separately measured fair values of its liabilities even though the CLO liabilities only have recourse to the CLO assets. AFG has set the carrying value of the CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at a separately measured fair value. CLO earnings attributable to AFG’s shareholders are measured by the change in the fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs and management fees earned.

Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses   The net liabilities stated for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims represent management’s best estimate and are based upon (i) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting period on direct business written; (ii) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (iii) estimates of unreported losses (including possible development on known claims) based on past experience; (iv) estimates based on experience of expenses for investigating and adjusting claims; and (v) the current state of the law and coverage litigation. Establishing reserves for asbestos, environmental and other mass tort claims involves considerably more judgment than other types of claims due to, among other things, inconsistent court decisions, an increase in bankruptcy filings as a result of asbestos-related liabilities, novel theories of coverage, and judicial interpretations that often expand theories of recovery and broaden the scope of coverage.
 
Loss reserve liabilities are subject to the impact of changes in claim amounts and frequency and other factors. Changes in estimates of the liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses are reflected in the statement of earnings in the period in which determined. Despite the variability inherent in such estimates, management believes that the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate.
 
Annuity Benefits Accumulated   Annuity receipts and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in annuity benefits accumulated rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited are charged to annuity benefits expense and decreases for annuity policy charges are recorded in other income. For traditional fixed annuities, the liability for annuity benefits accumulated represents the account value that has accrued to the benefit of the policyholder as of the balance sheet date. For fixed-indexed annuities, the liability or annuity benefits accumulated includes an embedded derivative that represents the estimated fair value of the index participation with the remaining component representing the discounted value of the guaranteed minimum contract benefits.
 
For certain products, annuity benefits accumulated also includes reserves for accrued persistency and premium bonuses, guaranteed withdrawals and excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations (“EDAR”). The liabilities for EDAR and guaranteed withdrawals are accrued for and modified using assumptions consistent with those used in determining DPAC and DPAC amortization, except that amounts are determined in relation to the present value of total expected assessments. Total expected assessments consist principally of estimated future investment margin, surrender, mortality, and other life and annuity policy charges, and unearned revenues once they are recognized as income.
 
Annuity benefits accumulated also includes amounts advanced from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati.
 
Unearned Revenue   Certain upfront policy charges on annuities are deferred as unearned revenue (included in other liabilities) and recognized in net earnings (included in other income) using the same assumptions and estimated gross profits used to amortize DPAC.

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Life, Accident and Health Reserves   Liabilities for future policy benefits under traditional life, accident and health policies are computed using the net level premium method. Computations are based on the original projections of investment yields, mortality, morbidity and surrenders and include provisions for unfavorable deviations unless a loss recognition event (premium

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deficiency) occurs. Claim reserves and liabilities established for accident and health claims are modified as necessary to reflect actual experience and developing trends.

For long-duration contracts (such as traditional life and long-term care policies), loss recognition occurs when, based on current expectations as of the measurement date, existing contract liabilities plus the present value of future premiums (including reasonably expected rate increases) are not expected to cover the present value of future claims payments and related settlement and maintenance costs (excluding overhead) as well as unamortized acquisition costs. If a block of business is determined to be in loss recognition, a charge is recorded in earnings in an amount equal to the excess of the present value of expected future claims costs and unamortized acquisition costs over existing reserves plus the present value of expected future premiums (with no provision for adverse deviation). The charge is recorded first to reduce unamortized acquisition costs and then as an additional reserve (if unamortized acquisition costs have been reduced to zero).

In addition, reserves for traditional life and long-term care policies are subject to adjustment for loss recognition charges that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. This adjustment is included in unrealized gains (losses) on marketable securities, a component of AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet.

Debt Issuance Costs   Debt issuance costs related to AFG’s outstanding debt are presented in its Balance Sheet as a direct reduction in the carrying value of long-term debt and are amortized over the life of the related debt using the effective interest method as a component of interest expense. Debt issuance costs related to AFG’s revolving credit facilities are included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet.

Variable Annuity Assets and Liabilities   Separate accounts related to variable annuities represent the fair value of deposits invested in underlying investment funds on which AFG earns a fee. Investment funds are selected and may be changed only by the policyholder, who retains all investment risk.

AFG’s variable annuity contracts contain a guaranteed minimum death benefit (“GMDB”) to be paid if the policyholder dies before the annuity payout period commences. In periods of declining equity markets, the GMDB may exceed the value of the policyholder’s account. A GMDB liability is established for future excess death benefits using assumptions together with a range of reasonably possible scenarios for investment fund performance that are consistent with DPAC capitalization and amortization assumptions.

Premium Recognition   Property and casualty premiums are earned generally over the terms of the policies on a pro rata basis. Unearned premiums represent that portion of premiums written, which is applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. On reinsurance assumed from other insurance companies or written through various underwriting organizations, unearned premiums are based on information received from such companies and organizations. For traditional life, accident and health products, premiums are recognized as revenue when legally collectible from policyholders. For interest-sensitive life and universal life products, premiums are recorded in a policyholder account, which is reflected as a liability. Revenue is recognized as amounts are assessed against the policyholder account for mortality coverage and contract expenses.

Noncontrolling Interests   For balance sheet purposes, noncontrolling interests represent the interests of shareholders other than AFG in consolidated entities. In the statement of earnings, net earnings and losses attributable to noncontrolling interests represents such shareholders’ interest in the earnings and losses of those entities. Noncontrolling interests that are redeemable at the option of the holder are presented separately in the mezzanine section of the balance sheet (between liabilities and equity).

Income Taxes   Deferred income taxes are calculated using the liability method. Under this method, deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined based on differences between financial reporting and tax bases and are measured using enacted tax rates. A valuation allowance is established to reduce total deferred tax assets to an amount that will more likely than not be realized. The effect of a change in tax rates on deferred tax assets and liabilities is recorded in net earnings in the period that includes the enactment date.

AFG recognizes the tax benefits of uncertain tax positions only when the position is more likely than not to be sustained under examination by the appropriate taxing authority. Interest and penalties on AFG’s reserve for uncertain tax positions are recognized as a component of tax expense.

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Stock-Based Compensation   All share-based grants are recognized as compensation expense on a straight-line basis over their vesting periods based on their calculated fair value at the date of grant. AFG uses the Black Scholes pricing model to measure the fair value of employee stock options. See Note K — “Shareholders’ Equity for further information.

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AFG records excess tax benefits or deficiencies for share-based payments through income tax expense in the statement of earnings. In addition, AFG accounts for forfeitures of awards when they occur.

Benefit Plans   AFG provides retirement benefits to qualified employees of participating companies through the AFG 401(k) Retirement and Savings Plan, a defined contribution plan. AFG makes all contributions to the retirement fund portion of the plan and matches a percentage of employee contributions to the savings fund. Company contributions are expensed in the year for which they are declared. AFG and many of its subsidiaries provide health care and life insurance benefits to eligible retirees. AFG also provides postemployment benefits to former or inactive employees (primarily those on disability) who were not deemed retired under other company plans. The projected future cost of providing these benefits is expensed over the period employees earn such benefits.

Earnings Per Share   Although basic earnings per share only considers shares of common stock outstanding during the period, the calculation of diluted earnings per share includes the following adjustments to weighted average common shares related to stock-based compensation plans: secondthird quarter of 2018 and 2017 — 1.6 million and 1.9 million; first nine months of 2018 and 2017 — 1.7 million and 2.0 million; first six months of 2018 and 2017 — 1.7 million and 2.1 million, respectively.
 
There were no anti-dilutive potential common shares in the secondthird quarter or first sixnine months of 2018 or 2017.
 
Statement of Cash Flows   For cash flow purposes, “investing activities” are defined as making and collecting loans and acquiring and disposing of debt or equity instruments and property and equipment. “Financing activities” include obtaining resources from owners and providing them with a return on their investments, borrowing money and repaying amounts borrowed. Annuity receipts, surrenders, benefits and withdrawals are also reflected as financing activities. All other activities are considered “operating.” Short-term investments having original maturities of three months or less when purchased are considered to be cash equivalents for purposes of the financial statements.

Revenue Recognition Guidance Effective in 2018 On January 1, 2018, AFG adopted ASU 2014-09, which provides guidance on recognizing revenue when (or as) performance obligations under the contract are satisfied. The new guidance also updates the accounting for certain costs associated with obtaining and fulfilling contracts with customers and requires certain new disclosures. Because revenue recognition for insurance contracts and financial instruments (AFG’s primary sources of revenue) were excluded from the scope of the new guidance, the adoption of ASU 2014-09 did not have a material impact on AFG’s results of operations or financial position.

B.    Segments of Operations

AFG manages its business as three segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance, (ii) Annuity and (iii) Other, which includes holding company costs, revenues and costs of AFG’s limited insurance operations outside of property and casualty insurance and annuities, and operations attributable to the noncontrolling interests of the managed investment entities.

AFG reports its property and casualty insurance business in the following Specialty sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, which includes physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks and recreational vehicles, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products and other property coverages, (ii) Specialty casualty, which includes primarily excess and surplus, general liability, executive liability, professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, specialty coverage in targeted markets, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers’ compensation insurance, and (iii) Specialty financial, which includes risk management insurance programs for leasing and financing institutions (including equipment leasing and collateral and lender-placed mortgage property insurance), surety and fidelity products and trade credit insurance. Premiums and underwriting profit included under Other specialty represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments and amortization of deferred gains on retroactive reinsurance transactions related to the sales of businesses in prior years. AFG’s annuity business markets traditional fixed, fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions, registered investment advisor and education markets. AFG’s reportable segments and their components were determined based primarily upon similar economic characteristics, products and services. Effective January 1, 2018, the results of AFG’s run-off long-term care and life

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businesses are included in the “Other” segment instead of as a separate reportable segment based on the immaterial size of the remaining operations. Prior period amounts were reclassified for consistent presentation.


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The following tables (in millions) show AFG’s revenues and earnings before income taxes by segment and sub-segment.
Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017
Revenues              
Property and casualty insurance:              
Premiums earned:              
Specialty              
Property and transportation$374
 $357
 $724
 $699
$526
 $527
 $1,250
 $1,226
Specialty casualty595
 537
 1,174
 1,045
616
 568
 1,790
 1,613
Specialty financial159
 146
 308
 293
149
 142
 457
 435
Other specialty33
 25
 62
 50
36
 30
 98
 80
Total premiums earned1,161
 1,065
 2,268
 2,087
1,327
 1,267
 3,595
 3,354
Net investment income115
 96
 215
 182
108
 94
 323
 276
Other income (a)2
 4
 4
 20
4
 1
 8
 21
Total property and casualty insurance1,278
 1,165
 2,487
 2,289
1,439
 1,362
 3,926
 3,651
Annuity:              
Net investment income412
 360
 806
 707
413
 375
 1,219
 1,082
Other income27
 26
 53
 53
27
 26
 80
 79
Total annuity439
 386
 859
 760
440
 401
 1,299
 1,161
Other85
 87
 168
 162
95
 84
 263
 246
Total revenues before realized gains (losses)1,802
 1,638
 3,514
 3,211
1,974
 1,847
 5,488
 5,058
Realized gains (losses) on securities31
 8
 (62) 11
34
 (12) (28) (1)
Total revenues$1,833
 $1,646
 $3,452
 $3,222
$2,008
 $1,835
 $5,460
 $5,057
Earnings Before Income Taxes              
Property and casualty insurance:              
Underwriting:              
Specialty              
Property and transportation$23
 $21
 $56
 $64
$
 $6
 $56
 $70
Specialty casualty29
 29
 70
 44
49
 2
 119
 46
Specialty financial22
 23
 37
 45
9
 (3) 46
 42
Other specialty(1) 
 2
 (1)(3) 4
 (1) 3
Other lines(b)(1) (1) (2) (2)(17) (90) (19) (92)
Total underwriting72
 72
 163
 150
38
 (81) 201
 69
Investment and other income, net (a)106
 91
 199
 184
101
 87
 300
 271
Total property and casualty insurance178
 163
 362
 334
139
 6
 501
 340
Annuity99
 85
 224
 181
117
 102
 341
 283
Other (b)(c)(48) (51) (90) (98)(46) (67) (136) (165)
Total earnings before realized gains (losses) and income taxes229
 197
 496
 417
210
 41
 706
 458
Realized gains (losses) on securities31
 8
 (62) 11
34
 (12) (28) (1)
Total earnings before income taxes$260
 $205
 $434
 $428
$244
 $29
 $678
 $457
(a)Includes income of $13 million (before noncontrolling interest) from the sale of a hotel in the first quarter of 2017.
(b)Includes special charges of $18 million and $89 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, to increase asbestos and environmental (“A&E”) reserves.
(c)Includes holding company interest and expenses, including a $7 million losslosses on retirement of debt of $4 million in the third quarter of 2017 and $7 million in the second quarter of 2017.2017, and special charges of $9 million and $24 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, to increase A&E reserves related to AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations.

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C.    Fair Value Measurements

Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows:
 
Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities, highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities.

Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include separate account assets, corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, asset-backed securities (“ABS”), mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), non-affiliated common stocks, equity index call options and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2.

Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available at the valuation date. AFG’s Level 3 is comprised of financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information.

As discussed in Note A — Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities,” AFG has set the carrying value of its CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. As a result, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments.

AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 25 analysts whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, the Company communicates directly with the pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities.

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Assets and liabilities measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): 
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 TotalLevel 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total
June 30, 2018       
September 30, 2018       
Assets:              
Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities:              
U.S. Government and government agencies$140
 $92
 $8
 $240
$142
 $84
 $8
 $234
States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 6,852
 61
 6,913

 6,715
 60
 6,775
Foreign government
 129
 
 129

 139
 
 139
Residential MBS
 2,739
 147
 2,886

 2,564
 145
 2,709
Commercial MBS
 878
 56
 934

 866
 57
 923
Asset-backed securities
 7,931
 1,004
 8,935

 8,316
 991
 9,307
Corporate and other29
 18,174
 1,408
 19,611
29
 18,482
 1,646
 20,157
Total AFS fixed maturities169
 36,795
 2,684
 39,648
171
 37,166
 2,907
 40,244
Trading fixed maturities38
 99
 
 137
9
 94
 
 103
Equity securities1,471
 76
 230
 1,777
1,462
 76
 289
 1,827
Equity index call options
 615
 
 615

 759
 
 759
Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”)229
 4,780
 23
 5,032
258
 4,718
 22
 4,998
Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*)
 636
 
 636

 650
 
 650
Total assets accounted for at fair value$1,907
 $43,001
 $2,937
 $47,845
$1,900
 $43,463
 $3,218
 $48,581
Liabilities:              
Liabilities of managed investment entities$220
 $4,598
 $22
 $4,840
$248
 $4,537
 $22
 $4,807
Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated
 
 2,776
 2,776

 
 3,105
 3,105
Other liabilities — derivatives
 72
 
 72

 83
 
 83
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value$220
 $4,670
 $2,798
 $7,688
$248
 $4,620
 $3,127
 $7,995
              
December 31, 2017              
Assets:              
Available for sale fixed maturities:              
U.S. Government and government agencies$122
 $112
 $8
 $242
$122
 $112
 $8
 $242
States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 6,975
 148
 7,123

 6,975
 148
 7,123
Foreign government
 127
 
 127

 127
 
 127
Residential MBS
 3,105
 122
 3,227

 3,105
 122
 3,227
Commercial MBS
 926
 36
 962

 926
 36
 962
Asset-backed securities
 7,218
 744
 7,962

 7,218
 744
 7,962
Corporate and other30
 17,662
 1,044
 18,736
30
 17,662
 1,044
 18,736
Total AFS fixed maturities152
 36,125
 2,102
 38,379
152
 36,125
 2,102
 38,379
Trading fixed maturities44
 304
 
 348
44
 304
 
 348
Equity securities1,411
 86
 165
 1,662
1,411
 86
 165
 1,662
Equity index call options
 701
 
 701

 701
 
 701
Assets of managed investment entities307
 4,572
 23
 4,902
307
 4,572
 23
 4,902
Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*)
 644
 
 644

 644
 
 644
Total assets accounted for at fair value$1,914
 $42,432
 $2,290
 $46,636
$1,914
 $42,432
 $2,290
 $46,636
Liabilities:              
Liabilities of managed investment entities$293
 $4,372
 $22
 $4,687
$293
 $4,372
 $22
 $4,687
Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated
 
 2,542
 2,542

 
 2,542
 2,542
Other liabilities — derivatives
 35
 
 35

 35
 
 35
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value$293
 $4,407
 $2,564
 $7,264
$293
 $4,407
 $2,564
 $7,264
(*)Variable annuity liabilities equal the fair value of variable annuity assets.


15

Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Transfers between Level 1 and Level 2 for all periods presented were a result of increases or decreases in observable trade activity.

During the secondthird quarter there were no transfers between Level 1 and Level 2. During the first sixnine months of 2018, there were two preferred stocks with an aggregate fair value of $6 million that transferred from Level 1 to Level 2. During the secondthird quarter andof 2017, there was one preferred stock with an aggregate fair value of $1 million that transferred from Level 2 to Level 1. During the first sixnine months of 2017, there were twothree preferred stocks with an aggregate fair value of $16$17 million that transferred from Level 2 to Level 1.

Approximately 6%7% of the total assets carried at fair value at JuneSeptember 30, 2018, were Level 3 assets. Approximately 73%68% ($2.142.18 billion) of the Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG. Since internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent approximately 14%18% of AFG’s Shareholders’ Equity, any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine internally developed fair values would not be expected to have a material impact on AFG’s financial position.

The only significant Level 3 assets or liabilities carried at fair value in the financial statements that were not measured using broker quotes are the derivatives embedded in AFG’s fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity liabilities, which are measured using a discounted cash flow approach and had a fair value of $2.783.11 billion at JuneSeptember 30, 2018. The following table presents information about the unobservable inputs used by management in determining fair value of these embedded derivatives. See Note E — “Derivatives.”

 Unobservable Input Range 
 Adjustment for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk 0.4% – 1.7%1.6% over the risk free rate 
 Risk margin for uncertainty in cash flows 0.70% reduction in the discount rate 
 Surrenders 3% – 23% of indexed account value 
 Partial surrenders 2% – 9% of indexed account value 
 Annuitizations 0.1% – 1% of indexed account value 
 Deaths 1.6% – 8.0% of indexed account value 
 Budgeted option costs 2.5%2.4%3.5%3.6% of indexed account value 

The range of adjustments for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk reflects credit spread variations across the yield curve. The range of projected surrender rates reflects the specific surrender charges and other features of AFG’s individual fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity products with an expected range of 7% to 11% in the majority of future calendar years (3% to 23% over all periods). Increasing the budgeted option cost or risk margin for uncertainty in cash flow assumptions in the table above would increase the fair value of the fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity embedded derivatives, while increasing any of the other unobservable inputs in the table above would decrease the fair value of the embedded derivatives.


16

Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the secondthird quarter and first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs and $29 million of equity securities transferred into Level 3 in the first quarter of 2018 related to a small number of limited partnerships and similar investments carried at cost under the prior guidance that are carried at fair value through net earnings under new guidance adopted on January 1, 2018, as discussed in Note A — Accounting Policies — Investments.” All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period.
  
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
            
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
          
Balance at March 31, 2018 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at June 30, 2018Balance at June 30, 2018 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at September 30, 2018
AFS fixed maturities:                              
U.S. government agency$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
State and municipal62
 
 (1) 
 
 
 
 61
61
 
 
 
 (1) 
 
 60
Residential MBS115
 (3) 
 
 (5) 50
 (10) 147
147
 (2) (2) 
 (6) 13
 (5) 145
Commercial MBS47
 
 
 9
 
 
 
 56
56
 2
 
 (1) 
 
 
 57
Asset-backed securities912
 
 (6) 136
 (20) 
 (18) 1,004
1,004
 
 (3) 13
 (23) 
 
 991
Corporate and other1,238
 1
 (4) 234
 (48) 
 (13) 1,408
1,408
 
 (3) 312
 (59) 
 (12) 1,646
Total AFS fixed maturities2,382
 (2) (11) 379
 (73) 50
 (41) 2,684
2,684
 
 (8) 324
 (89) 13
 (17) 2,907
Equity securities194
 19
 
 16
 
 1
 
 230
230
 (5) 
 81
 
 
 (17) 289
Assets of MIE24
 (3) 
 2
 
 
 
 23
23
 (1) 
 
 
 
 
 22
Total Level 3 assets$2,600
 $14
 $(11) $397
 $(73) $51
 $(41) $2,937
$2,937
 $(6) $(8) $405
 $(89) $13
 $(34) $3,218
                              
Embedded derivatives (a)$(2,549) $(126) $
 $(141) $40
 $
 $
 $(2,776)$(2,776) $(223) $
 $(151) $45
 $
 $
 $(3,105)
Total Level 3 liabilities (b)$(2,549) $(126) $
 $(141) $40
 $
 $
 $(2,776)
Total Level 3 liabilities (*)$(2,776) $(223) $
 $(151) $45
 $
 $
 $(3,105)


  
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
            
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
          
Balance at March 31, 2017 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at June 30, 2017Balance at June 30, 2017 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at September 30, 2017
AFS fixed maturities:                              
U.S. government agency$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
State and municipal143
 
 1
 
 (1) 
 
 143
143
 
 
 
 (1) 10
 
 152
Residential MBS175
 (3) 2
 
 (23) 13
 (11) 153
153
 2
 1
 
 (6) 15
 (21) 144
Commercial MBS29
 1
 
 15
 
 
 
 45
45
 1
 
 
 (10) 
 
 36
Asset-backed securities594
 
 2
 
 (25) 19
 (92) 498
498
 (2) 1
 13
 (26) 163
 (111) 536
Corporate and other828
 4
 4
 168
 (27) 
 (24) 953
953
 (9) 
 172
 (59) 
 (7) 1,050
Total AFS fixed maturities1,777
 2
 9
 183
 (76) 32
 (127) 1,800
1,800
 (8) 2
 185
 (102) 188
 (139) 1,926
Equity securities173
 (10) 6
 8
 (3) 
 (6) 168
168
 (3) (4) 2
 
 
 
 163
Assets of MIE26
 (5) 
 2
 
 
 
 23
23
 (4) 
 2
 
 
 
 21
Total Level 3 assets$1,976
 $(13) $15
 $193
 $(79) $32
 $(133) $1,991
$1,991
 $(15) $(2) $189
 $(102) $188
 $(139) $2,110
                              
Embedded derivatives$(1,963) $(112) $
 $(80) $26
 $
 $
 $(2,129)$(2,129) $(127) $
 $(65) $28
 $
 $
 $(2,293)
Total Level 3 liabilities (b)$(1,963) $(112) $
 $(80) $26
 $
 $
 $(2,129)
Total Level 3 liabilities (*)$(2,129) $(127) $
 $(65) $28
 $
 $
 $(2,293)

(a)Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in net earnings for the embedded derivatives reflects losses related to the unlocking of actuarial assumptions of $44 million in the second quarter of 2018.
(b)(*)As previously discussed, these tables exclude the portion of MIE liabilities allocated to Level 3, which are derived from the fair value of the MIE assets.

17

Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


  
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
            
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
          
Balance at December 31, 2017 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at June 30, 2018Balance at December 31, 2017 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at September 30, 2018
AFS fixed maturities:                              
U.S. government agency$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
State and municipal148
 
 (2) 
 (1) 
 (84) 61
148
 
 (2) 
 (2) 
 (84) 60
Residential MBS122
 (7) 
 
 (11) 57
 (14) 147
122
 (9) (2) 
 (17) 70
 (19) 145
Commercial MBS36
 (1) 
 21
 
 
 
 56
36
 1
 
 20
 
 
 
 57
Asset-backed securities744
 (2) (3) 340
 (57) 
 (18) 1,004
744
 (2) (6) 353
 (80) 
 (18) 991
Corporate and other1,044
 2
 (18) 472
 (79) 
 (13) 1,408
1,044
 2
 (21) 784
 (138) 
 (25) 1,646
Total AFS fixed maturities2,102
 (8) (23) 833
 (148) 57
 (129) 2,684
2,102
 (8) (31) 1,157
 (237) 70
 (146) 2,907
Equity securities165
 14
 
 25
 (4) 30
 
 230
165
 9
 
 106
 (4) 30
 (17) 289
Assets of MIE23
 (5) 
 5
 
 
 
 23
23
 (6) 
 5
 
 
 
 22
Total Level 3 assets$2,290
 $1
 $(23) $863
 $(152) $87
 $(129) $2,937
$2,290
 $(5) $(31) $1,268
 $(241) $100
 $(163) $3,218
                              
Embedded derivatives (a)$(2,542) $(63) $
 $(244) $73
 $
 $
 $(2,776)$(2,542) $(286) $
 $(395) $118
 $
 $
 $(3,105)
Total Level 3 liabilities (b)$(2,542) $(63) $
 $(244) $73
 $
 $
 $(2,776)$(2,542) $(286) $
 $(395) $118
 $
 $
 $(3,105)


  
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
            
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
          
Balance at December 31, 2016 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at June 30, 2017Balance at December 31, 2016 Net
earnings
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 Balance at September 30, 2017
AFS fixed maturities:                              
U.S. government agency$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
$8
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $
 $8
State and municipal140
 
 4
 
 (1) 
 
 143
140
 
 4
 
 (2) 10
 
 152
Residential MBS190
 (2) 2
 1
 (31) 20
 (27) 153
190
 
 3
 1
 (37) 35
 (48) 144
Commercial MBS25
 1
 
 15
 
 4
 
 45
25
 2
 
 15
 (10) 4
 
 36
Asset-backed securities484
 
 2
 104
 (36) 36
 (92) 498
484
 (2) 3
 117
 (62) 199
 (203) 536
Corporate and other712
 5
 8
 288
 (65) 29
 (24) 953
712
 (4) 8
 460
 (124) 29
 (31) 1,050
Total AFS fixed maturities1,559
 4
 16
 408
 (133) 89
 (143) 1,800
1,559
 (4) 18
 593
 (235) 277
 (282) 1,926
Equity securities174
 (16) 13
 20
 (3) 
 (20) 168
174
 (19) 9
 22
 (3) 
 (20) 163
Assets of MIE29
 (6) 
 4
 
 
 (4) 23
29
 (10) 
 6
 
 
 (4) 21
Total Level 3 assets$1,762
 $(18) $29
 $432
 $(136) $89
 $(167) $1,991
$1,762
 $(33) $27
 $621
 $(238) $277
 $(306) $2,110
                              
Embedded derivatives$(1,759) $(259) $
 $(159) $48
 $
 $
 $(2,129)$(1,759) $(386) $
 $(224) $76
 $
 $
 $(2,293)
Total Level 3 liabilities (b)$(1,759) $(259) $
 $(159) $48
 $
 $
 $(2,129)$(1,759) $(386) $
 $(224) $76
 $
 $
 $(2,293)
(a)Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in net earnings for the embedded derivatives reflects losses related to the unlocking of actuarial assumptions of $44 million in the first sixnine months of 2018.
(b)As previously discussed, these tables exclude the portion of MIE liabilities allocated to Level 3, which are derived from the fair value of the MIE assets.


18

Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Fair Value of Financial Instruments   The carrying value and fair value of financial instruments that are not carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): 
Carrying Fair ValueCarrying Fair Value
Value Total Level 1 Level 2 Level 3Value Total Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
June 30, 2018         
September 30, 2018         
Financial assets:                  
Cash and cash equivalents$1,810
 $1,810
 $1,810
 $
 $
$2,009
 $2,009
 $2,009
 $
 $
Mortgage loans1,147
 1,136
 
 
 1,136
1,152
 1,130
 
 
 1,130
Policy loans179
 179
 
 
 179
176
 176
 
 
 176
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value$3,136
 $3,125
 $1,810
 $
 $1,315
$3,337
 $3,315
 $2,009
 $
 $1,306
Financial liabilities:                  
Annuity benefits accumulated (*)$34,673
 $33,204
 $
 $
 $33,204
$35,729
 $33,923
 $
 $
 $33,923
Long-term debt1,301
 1,265
 
 1,262
 3
1,302
 1,260
 
 1,257
 3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value$35,974
 $34,469
 $
 $1,262
 $33,207
$37,031
 $35,183
 $
 $1,257
 $33,926
                  
December 31, 2017                  
Financial assets:                  
Cash and cash equivalents$2,338
 $2,338
 $2,338
 $
 $
$2,338
 $2,338
 $2,338
 $
 $
Mortgage loans1,125
 1,119
 
 
 1,119
1,125
 1,119
 
 
 1,119
Policy loans184
 184
 
 
 184
184
 184
 
 
 184
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value$3,647
 $3,641
 $2,338
 $
 $1,303
$3,647
 $3,641
 $2,338
 $
 $1,303
Financial liabilities:                  
Annuity benefits accumulated (*)$33,110
 $32,461
 $
 $
 $32,461
$33,110
 $32,461
 $
 $
 $32,461
Long-term debt1,301
 1,354
 
 1,351
 3
1,301
 1,354
 
 1,351
 3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value$34,411
 $33,815
 $
 $1,351
 $32,464
$34,411
 $33,815
 $
 $1,351
 $32,464

(*)Excludes $213$229 million and $206 million of life contingent annuities in the payout phase at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017, respectively.

The carrying amount of cash and cash equivalents approximates fair value. Fair values for mortgage loans are estimated by discounting the future contractual cash flows using the current rates at which similar loans would be made to borrowers with similar credit ratings. The fair value of policy loans is estimated to approximate carrying value; policy loans have no defined maturity dates and are inseparable from insurance contracts. The fair value of annuity benefits was estimated based on expected cash flows discounted using forward interest rates adjusted for the Company’s credit risk and includes the impact of maintenance expenses and capital costs. Fair values of long-term debt are based primarily on quoted market prices.


19

Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


D.    Investments

Available for sale fixed maturities at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017, consisted of the following (in millions):
June 30, 2018 December 31, 2017September 30, 2018 December 31, 2017
Amortized
Cost
 Gross Unrealized 
Net
Unrealized
 
Fair
Value
 
Amortized
Cost
 Gross Unrealized 
Net
Unrealized
 
Fair
Value
Amortized
Cost
 Gross Unrealized 
Net
Unrealized
 
Fair
Value
 
Amortized
Cost
 Gross Unrealized 
Net
Unrealized
 
Fair
Value
Gains Losses Gains LossesGains Losses Gains Losses
Fixed maturities:                                      
U.S. Government and government agencies$243
 $1
 $(4) $(3) $240
 $244
 $1
 $(3) $(2) $242
$238
 $
 $(4) $(4) $234
 $244
 $1
 $(3) $(2) $242
States, municipalities and political subdivisions6,804
 162
 (53) 109
 6,913
 6,887
 254
 (18) 236
 7,123
6,756
 117
 (98) 19
 6,775
 6,887
 254
 (18) 236
 7,123
Foreign government127
 2
 
 2
 129
 124
 3
 
 3
 127
137
 2
 
 2
 139
 124
 3
 
 3
 127
Residential MBS2,564
 329
 (7) 322
 2,886
 2,884
 349
 (6) 343
 3,227
2,408
 310
 (9) 301
 2,709
 2,884
 349
 (6) 343
 3,227
Commercial MBS920
 18
 (4) 14
 934
 927
 36
 (1) 35
 962
913
 14
 (4) 10
 923
 927
 36
 (1) 35
 962
Asset-backed securities8,849
 132
 (46) 86
 8,935
 7,836
 142
 (16) 126
 7,962
9,249
 122
 (64) 58
 9,307
 7,836
 142
 (16) 126
 7,962
Corporate and other19,737
 198
 (324) (126) 19,611
 18,136
 638
 (38) 600
 18,736
20,352
 169
 (364) (195) 20,157
 18,136
 638
 (38) 600
 18,736
Total fixed maturities$39,244
 $842
 $(438) $404
 $39,648
 $37,038
 $1,423
 $(82) $1,341
 $38,379
$40,053
 $734
 $(543) $191
 $40,244
 $37,038
 $1,423
 $(82) $1,341
 $38,379
                                      

The non-credit related portion of other-than-temporary impairment charges is included in other comprehensive income. Cumulative non-credit charges taken for securities still owned at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 were $149$144 million and $158 million, respectively. Gross unrealized gains on such securities at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 were $135$130 million and $137 million, respectively. Gross unrealized losses on such securities at both JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 were $4 million. These amounts represent the non-credit other-than-temporary impairment charges recorded in AOCI adjusted for subsequent changes in fair values and relate primarily to residential MBS.

As discussed in Note A — Accounting Policies — Investments,” beginning on January 1, 2018, AFG implemented new accounting guidance, which required all equity securities previously classified as “available for sale” to be reported at fair value, with holding gains and losses recognized in net earnings. Equity securities reported at fair value consisted of the following at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 (in millions):
    Fair Value in    Fair Value in
Actual Cost Fair Value excess of CostActual Cost Fair Value excess of Cost
Common stocks$1,066
 $1,180
 $114
$1,040
 $1,151
 $111
Perpetual preferred stocks603
 597
 (6)683
 676
 (7)
Total equity securities carried at fair value$1,669
 $1,777
 $108
$1,723
 $1,827
 $104


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


The following tables show gross unrealized losses (dollars in millions) on available for sale fixed maturities and equity securities by investment category and length of time that individual securities have been in a continuous unrealized loss position at the following balance sheet dates. 
Less Than Twelve Months Twelve Months or MoreLess Than Twelve Months Twelve Months or More
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
 
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
 
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
June 30, 2018           
September 30, 2018           
Fixed maturities:                      
U.S. Government and government agencies$(1) $102
 99% $(3) $99
 97%$(1) $113
 99% $(3) $100
 97%
States, municipalities and political subdivisions(36) 1,957
 98% (17) 451
 96%(63) 2,729
 98% (35) 721
 95%
Foreign government
 26
 100% 
 
 %
 105
 100% 
 
 %
Residential MBS(2) 157
 99% (5) 110
 96%(3) 200
 99% (6) 132
 96%
Commercial MBS(4) 215
 98% 
 
 %(3) 178
 98% (1) 51
 98%
Asset-backed securities(36) 3,738
 99% (10) 256
 96%(47) 4,775
 99% (17) 353
 95%
Corporate and other(281) 10,673
 97% (43) 651
 94%(283) 10,984
 97% (81) 1,346
 94%
Total fixed maturities$(360) $16,868
 98% $(78) $1,567
 95%$(400) $19,084
 98% $(143) $2,703
 95%
                      
December 31, 2017                      
Fixed maturities:                      
U.S. Government and government agencies$
 $55
 100% $(3) $123
 98%$
 $55
 100% $(3) $123
 98%
States, municipalities and political subdivisions(8) 825
 99% (10) 431
 98%(8) 825
 99% (10) 431
 98%
Foreign government
 4
 100% 
 
 %
 4
 100% 
 
 %
Residential MBS(1) 118
 99% (5) 118
 96%(1) 118
 99% (5) 118
 96%
Commercial MBS(1) 67
 99% 
 
 %(1) 67
 99% 
 
 %
Asset-backed securities(7) 1,195
 99% (9) 299
 97%(7) 1,195
 99% (9) 299
 97%
Corporate and other(20) 2,031
 99% (18) 603
 97%(20) 2,031
 99% (18) 603
 97%
Total fixed maturities$(37) $4,295
 99% $(45) $1,574
 97%$(37) $4,295
 99% $(45) $1,574
 97%
                      
Equity securities:                      
Common stocks$(22) $117
 84% $
 $
 %$(22) $117
 84% $
 $
 %
Perpetual preferred stocks
 41
 100% (1) 13
 93%
 41
 100% (1) 13
 93%
Total equity securities$(22) $158
 88% $(1) $13
 93%$(22) $158
 88% $(1) $13
 93%

At JuneSeptember 30, 2018, the gross unrealized losses on fixed maturities of $438543 million relate to 2,0432,392 securities. Investment grade securities (as determined by nationally recognized rating agencies) represented approximately 93%95% of the gross unrealized loss and 96% of the fair value.

AFG analyzes its MBS securities for other-than-temporary impairment each quarter based upon expected future cash flows. Management estimates expected future cash flows based upon its knowledge of the MBS market, cash flow projections (which reflect loan to collateral values, subordination, vintage and geographic concentration) received from independent sources, implied cash flows inherent in security ratings and analysis of historical payment data. In the first sixnine months of 2018, AFG recorded less than $1 million in other-than-temporary impairment charges related to its residential MBS.

In the first sixnine months of 2018, AFG recorded less than $1$2 million in other-than-temporary impairment charges related to corporate bonds and other fixed maturities.

Management believes AFG will recover its cost basis in the securities with unrealized losses and that AFG has the ability to hold the securities until they recover in value and had no intent to sell them at JuneSeptember 30, 2018. As discussed in Note A — “Accounting PoliciesInvestments,” effective January 1, 2018, all equity securities previously classified as “available for sale” are required to be carried at fair value through net earnings instead of accumulated other comprehensive income and therefore are no longer evaluated for other-than-temporary impairment.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


A progression of the credit portion of other-than-temporary impairments on fixed maturity securities for which the non-credit portion of an impairment has been recognized in other comprehensive income is shown below (in millions):

2018 20172018 2017
Balance at March 31$144
 $146
Balance at June 30$144
 $145
Additional credit impairments on:      
Previously impaired securities
 1

 
Securities without prior impairments1
 

 3
Reductions due to sales or redemptions(1) (2)(1) (1)
Balance at June 30$144
 $145
Balance at September 30$143
 $147
      
Balance at January 1$145
 $153
$145
 $153
Additional credit impairments on:      
Previously impaired securities
 1

 1
Securities without prior impairments1
 
1
 3
Reductions due to sales or redemptions(2) (9)(3) (10)
Balance at June 30$144
 $145
Balance at September 30$143
 $147

The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of available for sale fixed maturities as of JuneSeptember 30, 2018 (dollars in millions). Securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers.
Amortized Fair ValueAmortized Fair Value
Cost Amount %Cost Amount %
Maturity          
One year or less$994
 $1,003
 3%$1,212
 $1,223
 3%
After one year through five years7,703
 7,764
 20%8,150
 8,184
 20%
After five years through ten years13,386
 13,285
 33%13,372
 13,211
 33%
After ten years4,828
 4,841
 12%4,749
 4,687
 12%
26,911
 26,893
 68%27,483
 27,305
 68%
ABS (average life of approximately 4-1/2 years)8,849
 8,935
 22%9,249
 9,307
 23%
MBS (average life of approximately 4-1/2 years)3,484
 3,820
 10%3,321
 3,632
 9%
Total$39,244
 $39,648
 100%$40,053
 $40,244
 100%

Certain risks are inherent in fixed maturity securities, including loss upon default, price volatility in reaction to changes in interest rates, and general market factors and risks associated with reinvestment of proceeds due to prepayments or redemptions in a period of declining interest rates.
There were no investments in individual issuers that exceeded 10% of shareholders’ equity at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 or December 31, 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Net Unrealized Gain on Marketable Securities   In addition to adjusting fixed maturity securities and equity securities classified as “available for sale” to fair value, GAAP requires that deferred policy acquisition costs and certain other balance sheet amounts related to annuity, long-term care and life businesses be adjusted to the extent that unrealized gains and losses from securities would result in adjustments to those balances had the unrealized gains or losses actually been realized. The following table shows (in millions) the components of the net unrealized gain on securities that is included in AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet.
Pretax Deferred Tax NetPretax Deferred Tax Net
June 30, 2018     
September 30, 2018     
Net unrealized gain on:          
Fixed maturities — annuity segment (a)$310
 $(65) $245
$143
 $(30) $113
Fixed maturities — all other94
 (20) 74
48
 (10) 38
Total fixed maturities404
 (85) 319
191
 (40) 151
Deferred policy acquisition costs — annuity segment(124) 26
 (98)(56) 12
 (44)
Annuity benefits accumulated(41) 9
 (32)(18) 3
 (15)
Unearned revenue3
 (1) 2
1
 
 1
Total net unrealized gain on marketable securities$242
 $(51) $191
$118
 $(25) $93
          
December 31, 2017          
Net unrealized gain on:          
Fixed maturities — annuity segment (a)$1,082
 $(227) $855
$1,082
 $(227) $855
Fixed maturities — all other259
 (55) 204
259
 (55) 204
Total fixed maturities1,341
 (282) 1,059
1,341
 (282) 1,059
Equity securities (b)279
 (58) 221
279
 (58) 221
Total investments1,620
 (340) 1,280
1,620
 (340) 1,280
Deferred policy acquisition costs — annuity segment(433) 91
 (342)(433) 91
 (342)
Annuity benefits accumulated(137) 29
 (108)(137) 29
 (108)
Unearned revenue13
 (3) 10
13
 (3) 10
Total net unrealized gain on marketable securities$1,063
 $(223) $840
$1,063
 $(223) $840

(a)Net unrealized gains on fixed maturity investments supporting AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated.
(b)
As discussed in Note A — “Accounting PoliciesInvestments,” effective January 1, 2018, all equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method are carried at fair value through net earnings.

Net Investment Income   The following table shows (in millions) investment income earned and investment expenses incurred.
Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017
Investment income:              
Fixed maturities$431
 $397
 $843
 $786
$440
 $405
 $1,283
 $1,191
Equity securities:              
Dividends20
 17
 40
 36
19
 17
 59
 53
Change in fair value (*)15
 2
 14
 4
2
 
 16
 4
Equity in earnings of partnerships and similar investments41
 21
 87
 31
41
 20
 128
 51
Other28
 27
 51
 47
31
 33
 82
 80
Gross investment income535
 464
 1,035
 904
533
 475
 1,568
 1,379
Investment expenses(5) (4) (10) (9)(6) (4) (16) (13)
Net investment income$530
 $460
 $1,025
 $895
$527
 $471
 $1,552
 $1,366
(*)
As discussed in Note A — “Accounting PoliciesInvestments,” AFG adopted guidance in January 2018 that requires all equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method to be reported at fair value with holding gains and losses recognized in net earnings. Although the change in the fair value of the majority of AFG’s equity securities is recorded in realized gains (losses) on securities, AFG records holding gains and losses in net investment income on equity

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


securities classified as “trading” under the previous guidance and on a small portfolio of limited partnership and similar investments that do not qualify for the equity method of accounting.
Realized gains (losses) and changes in unrealized appreciation (depreciation) related to fixed maturity and equity security investments are summarized as follows (in millions): 
Three months ended June 30, 2018 Three months ended June 30, 2017Three months ended September 30, 2018 Three months ended September 30, 2017
Realized gains (losses)   Realized gains (losses)  Realized gains (losses)   Realized gains (losses)  
Before Impairments Impairments Total Change in Unrealized Before Impairments Impairments Total Change in UnrealizedBefore Impairments Impairments Total Change in Unrealized Before Impairments Impairments Total Change in Unrealized
Fixed maturities$4
 $
 $4
 $(338) $11
 $(1) $10
 $262
$
 $(2) $(2) $(213) $9
 $(15) $(6) $133
Equity securities23
 
 23
 
 8
 (11) (3) 20
33
 
 33
 
 19
 (29) (10) 24
Mortgage loans and other investments
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other (*)4
 
 4
 147
 (2) 3
 1
 (112)3
 
 3
 89
 (2) 6
 4
 (53)
Total pretax31



31

(191)
17

(9)
8

170
36

(2)
34

(124)
26

(38)
(12)
104
Tax effects(6) 
 (6) 40
 (6) 3
 (3) (60)(8) 1
 (7) 26
 (9) 13
 4
 (37)
Net of tax$25

$

$25

$(151)
$11

$(6)
$5

$110
$28

$(1)
$27

$(98)
$17

$(25)
$(8)
$67
                              
                              
Six months ended June 30, 2018 Six months ended June 30, 2017Nine months ended September 30, 2018 Nine months ended September 30, 2017
Realized gains (losses)   Realized gains (losses)  Realized gains (losses)   Realized gains (losses)  
Before Impairments Impairments Total Change in Unrealized Before Impairments Impairments Total Change in UnrealizedBefore Impairments Impairments Total Change in Unrealized Before Impairments Impairments Total Change in Unrealized
Fixed maturities$3
 $(1) $2
 $(937) $16
 $(1) $15
 $464
$3
 $(3) $
 $(1,150) $25
 $(16) $9
 $597
Equity securities(72) 
 (72) 
 10
 (20) (10) 92
(39) 
 (39) 
 29
 (49) (20) 116
Mortgage loans and other investments
 
 
 
 3
 
 3
 

 
 
 
 3
 
 3
 
Other (*)8
 
 8
 395
 (3) 6
 3
 (195)11
 
 11
 484
 (5) 12
 7
 (248)
Total pretax(61) (1) (62) (542) 26
 (15) 11
 361
(25) (3) (28) (666) 52
 (53) (1) 465
Tax effects13
 
 13
 114
 (9) 5
 (4) (126)5
 1
 6
 140
 (18) 18
 
 (163)
Net of tax$(48) $(1) $(49) $(428) $17
 $(10) $7
 $235
$(20) $(2) $(22) $(526) $34
 $(35) $(1) $302
(*)Primarily adjustments to deferred policy acquisition costs and reserves related to the annuity business.

As discussed in Note A — “Accounting PoliciesInvestments,” effective January 1, 2018, all equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method are carried at fair value through net earnings. AFG recorded net holding gains (losses) on equity securities during the secondthird quarter and first sixnine months of 2018 on securities that were still owned at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 as follows (in millions):
Three months ended Six months endedThree months ended Nine months ended
June 30, 2018 June 30, 2018September 30, 2018 September 30, 2018
Included in realized gains (losses)$16
 $(71)$25
 $(51)
Included in net investment income15
 14
2
 16
$31
 $(57)$27
 $(35)

Gross realized gains and losses (excluding impairment write-downs and mark-to-market of derivatives) on available for sale fixed maturity investment transactions consisted of the following (in millions): 
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Fixed maturities:      
Gross gains$16
 $21
$19
 $32
Gross losses(8) (2)(8) (4)

In the first sixnine months of 2017, AFG recorded gross gains of $15$36 million and gross losses of $5$6 million on available for sale equity securities.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED



E.    Derivatives

As discussed under Derivatives in Note A — “Accounting Policies,” AFG uses derivatives in certain areas of its operations.

Derivatives That Do Not Qualify for Hedge Accounting   The following derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting under GAAP are included in AFG’s Balance Sheet at fair value (in millions):
   June 30, 2018 December 31, 2017   September 30, 2018 December 31, 2017
Derivative Balance Sheet Line Asset Liability Asset Liability Balance Sheet Line Asset Liability Asset Liability
MBS with embedded derivatives Fixed maturities $115
 $
 $105
 $
 Fixed maturities $110
 $
 $105
 $
Public company warrants Equity securities 3
 
 4
 
 Equity securities 3
 
 4
 
Fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities (embedded derivative) Annuity benefits accumulated 
 2,776
 
 2,542
 Annuity benefits accumulated 
 3,105
 
 2,542
Equity index call options Equity index call options 615
 
 701
 
 Equity index call options 759
 
 701
 
Equity index put options Other liabilities 
 
 
 
 Other liabilities 
 
 
 
Reinsurance contracts (embedded derivative) Other liabilities 
 2
 
 4
 Other liabilities 
 2
 
 4
 $733
 $2,778
 $810
 $2,546
 $872
 $3,107
 $810
 $2,546

The MBS with embedded derivatives consist primarily of interest-only MBS with interest rates that float inversely with short-term rates.and principal-only MBS. AFG records the entire change in the fair value of these securities in earnings. These investments are part of AFG’s overall investment strategy and represent a small component of AFG’s overall investment portfolio.

Warrants to purchase shares of publicly traded companies, which represent a small component of AFG’s overall investment portfolio, are considered to be derivatives that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings.

AFG’s fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities provide policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market or other financial index. AFG attempts to mitigate the risk in the index-based component of these products through the purchase and sale of call and put options on the appropriate index. AFG receives collateral from certain counterparties to support its purchased call option assets (net of collateral required under put option contracts with the same counterparties). This collateral ($353545 million at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and $389 million at December 31, 2017) is included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet with an offsetting liability to return the collateral, which is included in other liabilities. AFG’s strategy is designed so that the change in the fair value of the call and put options will generally offset the economic change in the liabilities from the index participation. Both the index-based component of the annuities and the related call and put options are considered derivatives. Fluctuations in interest rates and the stock market, among other factors, can cause volatility in the periodic measurement of fair value of the embedded derivative that management believes can be inconsistent with the long-term economics of these products.

As discussed under “Reinsurance” in Note A, AFG has a reinsurance contract that is considered to contain an embedded derivative.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


The following table summarizes the gains (losses) included in AFG’s Statement of Earnings for changes in the fair value of derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting for the secondthird quarter and first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017 (in millions): 
 Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30, Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
Derivative Statement of Earnings Line 2018 2017 2018 2017 Statement of Earnings Line 2018 2017 2018 2017
MBS with embedded derivatives Realized gains (losses) on securities $(1) $(3) $(5) $(3) Realized gains (losses) on securities $(3) $
 $(8) $(3)
Public company warrants Realized gains (losses) on securities 
 
 (1) 
 Realized gains (losses) on securities 1
 (1) 
 (1)
Fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities (embedded derivative) (*) Annuity benefits (126) (112) (63) (259) Annuity benefits (223) (127) (286) (386)
Equity index call options Annuity benefits 90
 81
 52
 222
 Annuity benefits 219
 116
 271
 338
Equity index put options Annuity benefits 
 
 
 
 Annuity benefits 
 
 
 
Reinsurance contract (embedded derivative) Net investment income 1
 (1) 2
 (2) Net investment income 
 
 2
 (2)
 $(36) $(35) $(15) $(42) $(6) $(12) $(21) $(54)

(*)The change in fair value of the embedded derivative for the nine months ended September 30, 2018 includes lossesa $44 million charge in the second quarter of 2018 related to the unlocking of actuarial assumptions of $44 million in both the second quarter and first six months of 2018.assumptions.

Derivatives Designated and Qualifying as Cash Flow Hedges   As of JuneSeptember 30, 2018, AFG has entered into elevenfourteen interest rate swaps that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges to mitigate interest rate risk related to certain floating-rate securities included in AFG’s portfolio of fixed maturity securities. The purpose of each of these swaps is to effectively convert a portion of AFG’s floating-rate fixed maturity securities to fixed rates by offsetting the variability in cash flows attributable to changes in short-term LIBOR.

Under the terms of the swaps, AFG receives fixed-rate interest payments in exchange for variable interest payments based on short-term LIBOR. The notional amounts of the interest rate swaps generally decline over each swap’s respective life (the swaps expire between August 2019 and June 2030) in anticipation of the expected decline in AFG’s portfolio of fixed maturity securities with floating interest rates based on short-term LIBOR. The total outstanding notional amount of AFG’s interest rate swaps was $1.64$2.17 billion at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 compared to $1.58 billion at December 31, 2017, reflecting afour new swapswaps with an aggregate notional amount at issuance of $130$697 million entered into in the first quarternine months of 2018, partially offset by the scheduled amortization discussed above. The fair value of the effective portion of the interest rate swaps in an asset position and included in other assets was zero at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and less than $1 million at December 31, 2017. The fair value of the effective portion of the interest rate swaps in a liability position and included in other liabilities was $70$81 million at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and $31 million at December 31, 2017. The net unrealized gain or loss on cash flow hedges is included in AOCI, net of DPAC and deferred taxes. Amounts reclassified from AOCI (before DPAC and taxes) to net investment income were losses of $2$1 million and $1$2 million during the secondthird quarter and first sixnine months of 2018 as compared to income of $1 million and $3$4 million in the secondthird quarter and first sixnine months of 2017, respectively. There was no ineffectiveness recorded in net earnings during these periods. A collateral receivable supporting these swaps of $116$126 million at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and $70 million at December 31, 2017 is included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet.


26

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


F.    Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs

A progression of deferred policy acquisition costs is presented below (in millions):
P&C  Annuity and Other   P&C  Annuity and Other   
Deferred  Deferred Sales          ConsolidatedDeferred  Deferred Sales          Consolidated
Costs  Costs Inducements PVFP Subtotal Unrealized (*) Total  TotalCosts  Costs Inducements PVFP Subtotal Unrealized (*) Total  Total
Balance at March 31, 2018$279
  $1,208
 $97
 $47
 $1,352
 $(214) $1,138
  $1,417
Additions181
  70
 1
 
 71
 
 71
  252
Amortization:                 
Periodic amortization(160)  (66) (5) (2) (73) 
 (73)  (233)
Annuity unlocking
  28
 1
 
 29
 
 29
  29
Included in realized gains
  3
 
 
 3
 
 3
  3
Foreign currency translation(2)  
 
 
 
 
 
  (2)
Change in unrealized
  
 
 
 
 116
 116
  116
Balance at June 30, 2018$298
  $1,243
 $94
 $45
 $1,382
 $(98) $1,284
  $1,582
$298
  $1,243
 $94
 $45
 $1,382
 $(98) $1,284
  $1,582
                 
Balance at March 31, 2017$243
  $1,137
 $105
 $44
 $1,286
 $(324) $962
  $1,205
Additions151
  66
 1
 
 67
 
 67
  218
181
  65
 1
 
 66
 
 66
  247
Amortization:             

                    
Periodic amortization(136)  (36) (4) (2) (42) 
 (42)  (178)(171)  (58) (5) (2) (65) 
 (65)  (236)
Included in realized gains
  
 1
 
 1
 
 1
  1

  3
 
 
 3
 
 3
  3
Foreign currency translation
  
 
 
 
 
 
  

  
 
 
 
 
 
  
Change in unrealized
  
 
 
 
 (90) (90)  (90)
  
 
 
 
 73
 73
  73
Balance at September 30, 2018$308
  $1,253
 $90
 $43
 $1,386
 $(25) $1,361
  $1,669
                 
Balance at June 30, 2017$258
  $1,167
 $103
 $42
 $1,312
 $(414) $898
  $1,156
$258
  $1,167
 $103
 $42
 $1,312
 $(414) $898
  $1,156
Additions149
  44
 1
 
 45
 
 45
  194
Amortization:             

   
Periodic amortization(142)  (44) (4) (2) (50) 
 (50)  (192)
Included in realized gains
  4
 
 
 4
 
 4
  4
Foreign currency translation1
  
 
 
 
 
 
  1
Change in unrealized
  
 
 
 
 (44) (44)  (44)
Balance at September 30, 2017$266
  $1,171
 $100
 $40
 $1,311
 $(458) $853
  $1,119
                                  
Balance at December 31, 2017$270
  $1,217
 $102
 $49
 $1,368
 $(422) $946
  $1,216
$270
  $1,217
 $102
 $49
 $1,368
 $(422) $946
  $1,216
Additions343
  127
 1
 
 128
 
 128
  471
524
  192
 2
 
 194
 
 194
  718
Amortization:                                  
Periodic amortization(314)  (135) (10) (4) (149) 
 (149)  (463)(485)  (193) (15) (6) (214) 
 (214)  (699)
Annuity unlocking
  28
 1
 
 29
 
 29
  29

  28
 1
 
 29
 
 29
  29
Included in realized gains
  6
 
 
 6
 
 6
  6

  9
 
 
 9
 
 9
  9
Foreign currency translation(1)  
 
 
 
 
 
  (1)(1)  
 
 
 
 
 
  (1)
Change in unrealized
  
 
 
 
 324
 324
  324

  
 
 
 
 397
 397
  397
Balance at June 30, 2018$298
  $1,243
 $94
 $45
 $1,382
 $(98) $1,284
  $1,582
Balance at September 30, 2018$308
  $1,253
 $90
 $43
 $1,386
 $(25) $1,361
  $1,669
                                  
Balance at December 31, 2016$238
  $1,110
 $110
 $46
 $1,266
 $(265) $1,001
  $1,239
$238
  $1,110
 $110
 $46
 $1,266
 $(265) $1,001
  $1,239
Additions290
  133
 2
 
 135
 
 135
  425
439
  177
 3
 
 180
 
 180
  619
Amortization:                                  
Periodic amortization(271)  (78) (10) (4) (92) 
 (92)  (363)(413)  (122) (14) (6) (142) 
 (142)  (555)
Included in realized gains
  2
 1
 
 3
 
 3
  3

  6
 1
 
 7
 
 7
  7
Foreign currency translation1
  
 
 
 
 
 
  1
2
  
 
 
 
 
 
  2
Change in unrealized
  
 
 
 
 (149) (149)  (149)
  
 
 
 
 (193) (193)  (193)
Balance at June 30, 2017$258
  $1,167
 $103
 $42
 $1,312
 $(414) $898
  $1,156
Balance at September 30, 2017$266
  $1,171
 $100
 $40
 $1,311
 $(458) $853
  $1,119

(*)Unrealized adjustments to DPAC includes net unrealized gains/losses on securities and net unrealized gains/losses on cash flow hedges.

The present value of future profits (“PVFP”) amounts in the table above are net of $145147 million and $141 million of accumulated amortization at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017, respectively.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


G.    Managed Investment Entities

AFG is the investment manager and its subsidiaries have investments ranging from 15.0% to 60.9% of the most subordinate debt tranche of sixteenfifteen collateralized loan obligation entities or “CLOs,” which are considered variable interest entities. AFG’s subsidiaries also own portions of the senior debt tranches of certain of these CLOs. Upon formation between 2004 and 2018, these entities issued securities in various senior and subordinate classes and invested the proceeds primarily in secured bank loans, which serve as collateral for the debt securities issued by each particular CLO. None of the collateral was purchased from AFG. AFG’s investments in the subordinate debt tranches of these entities receive residual income from the CLOs only after the CLOs pay expenses (including management fees to AFG) and interest on and returns of capital to senior levels of debt securities. There are no contractual requirements for AFG to provide additional funding for these entities. AFG has not provided and does not intend to provide any financial support to these entities.

AFG’s maximum exposure to economic loss on its CLOs is limited to its investment in the CLOs, which had an aggregate fair value of $192191 million (including $134$133 million invested in the most subordinate tranches) at JuneSeptember 30, 2018, and $215 million at December 31, 2017.

In March 2018 and March 2017, AFG formed new CLOs, which issued $463 million and $408 million face amount of liabilities, respectively (including $31 million and $24 million face amount purchased by subsidiaries of AFG). During the first sixnine months of 2017, AFG subsidiaries also purchased $29$58 million face amount of senior debt and subordinate tranches of existing CLOs for $29$58 million. During the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017, AFG subsidiaries received $45 million and $64$86 million, respectively, in sale and redemption proceeds from its CLO investments. During both the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017, one and two AFG CLO wasCLOs, respectively, were substantially liquidated, as permitted by the CLO indentures.

The revenues and expenses of the CLOs are separately identified in AFG’s Statement of Earnings, after the elimination of management fees and earnings attributable to shareholders of AFG as measured by the change in the fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs. Selected financial information related to the CLOs is shown below (in millions): 
Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017
Investment in CLO tranches at end of period$192
 $188
 $192
 $188
$191
 $261
 $191
 $261
Gains (losses) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities (a):              
Assets(29) (9) (15) (4)20
 (8) 5
 (12)
Liabilities27
 20
 10
 15
(25) 9
 (15) 24
Management fees paid to AFG4
 5
 8
 9
4
 5
 12
 14
CLO earnings (losses) attributable to AFG shareholders (b)4
 5
 7
 11
4
 5
 11
 16

(a)Included in revenues in AFG’s Statement of Earnings.
(b)Included in earnings before income taxes in AFG’s Statement of Earnings.
The aggregate unpaid principal balance of the CLOs’ fixed maturity investments exceeded the fair value of the investments by $6245 million and $55 million at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017, respectively. The aggregate unpaid principal balance of the CLOs’ debt exceeded its carrying value by $167160 million and $118 million at those dates. The CLO assets include loans with an aggregate fair value of $1 million at both JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017, for which the CLOs are not accruing interest because the loans are in default (aggregate unpaid principal balance of $8 million at both those dates).

H.    Goodwill and Other Intangibles

There were no changes in the goodwill balance of $199 million during the first sixnine months of 2018. Included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet is $3431 million at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and $26 million at December 31, 2017 in amortizable intangible assets related to property and casualty insurance acquisitions. These amounts are net of accumulated amortization of $34$37 million and $30 million, respectively. Amortization of intangibles was $3 million and $2 million in both the second quartersthird quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, and $4$7 million and $6 million in both the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


I.    Long-Term Debt

Long-term debt consisted of the following (in millions):
June 30, 2018 December 31, 2017September 30, 2018 December 31, 2017
Principal Discount and Issue Costs Carrying Value Principal Discount and Issue Costs Carrying ValuePrincipal Discount and Issue Costs Carrying Value Principal Discount and Issue Costs Carrying Value
Direct Senior Obligations of AFG:                      
4.50% Senior Notes due June 2047$590
 $(2) $588
 $590
 $(2) $588
$590
 $(2) $588
 $590
 $(2) $588
3.50% Senior Notes due August 2026425
 (5) 420
 425
 (5) 420
425
 (4) 421
 425
 (5) 420
Other3
 
 3
 3
 
 3
3
 
 3
 3
 
 3
1,018
 (7) 1,011
 1,018
 (7) 1,011
1,018
 (6) 1,012
 1,018
 (7) 1,011
                      
Direct Subordinated Obligations of AFG:                      
6-1/4% Subordinated Debentures due September 2054150
 (5) 145
 150
 (5) 145
150
 (5) 145
 150
 (5) 145
6% Subordinated Debentures due November 2055150
 (5) 145
 150
 (5) 145
150
 (5) 145
 150
 (5) 145
300
 (10) 290
 300
 (10) 290
300
 (10) 290
 300
 (10) 290
$1,318
 $(17) $1,301
 $1,318
 $(17) $1,301
$1,318
 $(16) $1,302
 $1,318
 $(17) $1,301

AFG has no scheduled principal payments on its long-term debt for the balance of 2018 or in the subsequent five years.

AFG can borrow up to $500 million under its revolving credit facility, which expires in June 2021. Amounts borrowed under this agreement bear interest at rates ranging from 1.00% to 1.875% (currently 1.375%) over LIBOR based on AFG’s credit rating. No amounts were borrowed under this facility at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 or December 31, 2017.

J.     Redeemable Noncontrolling Interests

Neon Lloyd’s Business   On December 29, 2017, AFG completed the sale of an indirect noncontrolling interest in Neon, its United Kingdom-based Lloyd’s insurer, to certain Neon executives for cash equal to the fair value of the interest sold as determined by a third-party valuation firm. This noncontrolling interest is redeemable at the option of the holder and is presented separately in the mezzanine section of the balance sheet, as discussed in Note A — Accounting Policies — Noncontrolling Interests.”

K.    Shareholders’ Equity

AFG is authorized to issue 12.5 million shares of Voting Preferred Stock and 12.5 million shares of Nonvoting Preferred Stock, each without par value.

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income, Net of Tax (“AOCI”)   Comprehensive income is defined as all changes in shareholders’ equity except those arising from transactions with shareholders. Comprehensive income includes net earnings and other comprehensive income, which consists primarily of changes in net unrealized gains or losses on available for sale securities.


29

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


The progression of the components of accumulated other comprehensive income follows (in millions): 
  Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)      Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)    
AOCI
Beginning
Balance
 Pretax Tax 
Net
of
tax
 
Attributable to
noncontrolling
interests
 
Attributable to
shareholders
 Other (c) 
AOCI
Ending
Balance
AOCI
Beginning
Balance
 Pretax Tax 
Net
of
tax
 
Attributable to
noncontrolling
interests
 
Attributable to
shareholders
 Other (c) 
AOCI
Ending
Balance
Quarter ended June 30, 2018               
Quarter ended September 30, 2018               
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:                              
Unrealized holding losses on securities arising during the period  $(187) $39
 $(148) $
 $(148)   

  $(122) $26
 $(96) $
 $(96)   

Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)  (4) 1
 (3) 
 (3)   

  (2) 
 (2) 
 (2)   

Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities (b)$342
 (191) 40
 (151) 
 (151) $
 $191
$191
 (124) 26
 (98) 
 (98) $
 $93
Net unrealized losses on cash flow hedges(24) (4) 1
 (3) 
 (3) 
 (27)(27) (6) 1
 (5) 
 (5) 
 (32)
Foreign currency translation adjustments(5) (4) 
 (4) 
 (4) 
 (9)(9) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (9)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments(8) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (8)(8) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (8)
Total$305
 $(199) $41
 $(158) $
 $(158) $
 $147
$147
 $(130) $27
 $(103) $
 $(103) $
 $44
                              
Quarter ended June 30, 2017               
Quarter ended September 30, 2017               
Net unrealized gains on securities:                              
Unrealized holding gains on securities arising during the period  $178
 $(63) $115
 $
 $115
      $92
 $(33) $59
 $
 $59
    
Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)  (8) 3
 (5) 
 (5)      12
 (4) 8
 
 8
    
Total net unrealized gains on securities$529
 170
 (60) 110
 
 110
 $
 $639
$639
 104
 (37) 67
 
 67
 $
 $706
Net unrealized gains (losses) on cash flow hedges(8) 4
 (2) 2
 
 2
 
 (6)
Net unrealized losses on cash flow hedges(6) (1) 1
 
 
 
 
 (6)
Foreign currency translation adjustments(15) 3
 1
 4
 
 4
 
 (11)(11) 5
 2
 7
 
 7
 
 (4)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments(7) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (7)(7) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (7)
Total$499
 $177
 $(61) $116
 $
 $116
 $
 $615
$615
 $108
 $(34) $74
 $
 $74
 $
 $689
                              
Six months ended June 30, 2018               
Nine months ended September 30, 2018               
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:                              
Unrealized holding losses on securities arising during the period  $(540) $113
 $(427) $
 $(427)   

  $(662) $139
 $(523) $
 $(523)   

Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)  (2) 1
 (1) 
 (1)   

  (4) 1
 (3) 
 (3)   

Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities (b)$840
 (542) 114
 (428) 
 (428) $(221) $191
$840
 (666) 140
 (526) 
 (526) $(221) $93
Net unrealized losses on cash flow hedges(13) (18) 4
 (14) 
 (14) 
 (27)(13) (24) 5
 (19) 
 (19) 
 (32)
Foreign currency translation adjustments(6) (2) (1) (3) 
 (3) 
 (9)(6) (2) (1) (3) 
 (3) 
 (9)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments(8) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (8)(8) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (8)
Total$813
 $(562) $117
 $(445) $
 $(445) $(221) $147
$813
 $(692) $144
 $(548) $
 $(548) $(221) $44
                              
Six months ended June 30, 2017               
Nine months ended September 30, 2017               
Net unrealized gains on securities:                              
Unrealized holding gains on securities arising during the period  $369
 $(129) $240
 $
 $240
      $461
 $(162) $299
 $
 $299
    
Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)  (8) 3
 (5) 
 (5)      4
 (1) 3
 
 3
    
Total net unrealized gains on securities$404
 361
 (126) 235
 
 235
 $
 $639
$404
 465
 (163) 302
 
 302
 $
 $706
Net unrealized gains (losses) on cash flow hedges(7) 2
 (1) 1
 
 1
 
 (6)(7) 1
 
 1
 
 1
 
 (6)
Foreign currency translation adjustments(15) 3
 1
 4
 
 4
 
 (11)(15) 8
 3
 11
 
 11
 
 (4)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments(7) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (7)(7) 
 
 
 
 
 
 (7)
Total$375
 $366
 $(126) $240
 $
 $240
 $
 $615
$375
 $474
 $(160) $314
 $
 $314
 $
 $689


30

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


(a)The reclassification adjustment out of net unrealized gains (losses) on securities affected the following lines in AFG’s Statement of Earnings:
 OCI component Affected line in the statement of earnings 
 Pretax Realized gains (losses) on securities 
 Tax Provision for income taxes 
(b)Includes net unrealized gains of $64 million at September 30, 2018 compared to $67 million at June 30, 2018 and $68 million at both March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017 related to securities for which only the credit portion of an other-than-temporary impairment has been recorded in earnings.
(c)On January 1, 2018, AFG adopted new guidance that requires all equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method to be reported at fair value with holding gains and losses recognized in net earnings. At the date of adoption, the $221 million net unrealized gain on equity securities classified as available for sale (with unrealized holding gains and losses reported in AOCI) under the prior guidance was reclassified from AOCI to retained earnings as the cumulative effect of an accounting change.

Stock Incentive Plans   Under AFG’s stock incentive plans, employees of AFG and its subsidiaries are eligible to receive equity awards in the form of stock options, stock appreciation rights, restricted stock awards, restricted stock units and stock awards. In the first sixnine months of 2018, AFG issued 200,625 shares of restricted Common Stock (fair value of $112.86 per share) under the Stock Incentive Plan. In addition, AFG issued 45,804 shares of Common Stock (fair value of $115.49 per share) in the first quarter of 2018 under the Equity Bonus Plan. AFG did not grant any stock options in the first sixnine months of 2018.

Total compensation expense related to stock incentive plans of AFG and its subsidiaries was $6 million and $7 million in both the secondthird quarters of 2018 and 2017 and $11$17 million and $17$24 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017, respectively.

L.    Income Taxes

The following is a reconciliation of income taxes at the statutory rate (21% in 2018 and 35% in 2017) to the provision for income taxes as shown in AFG’s Statement of Earnings (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017
Amount % of EBT Amount % of EBT Amount % of EBT Amount % of EBTAmount % of EBT Amount % of EBT Amount % of EBT Amount % of EBT
Earnings before income taxes (“EBT”)$260
   $205
   $434
   $428
  $244
   $29
   $678
   $457
  
                              
Income taxes at statutory rate$54
 21% $72
 35% $91
 21% $150
 35%$51
 21% $10
 35% $142
 21% $160
 35%
Effect of:                              
Stock-based compensation(2) (1%) (7) (3%) (7) (2%) (13) (3%)
Adjustment to prior year taxes(9) (4%) (2) (7%) (9) (1%) (2) (1%)
Tax exempt interest(4) (2%) (6) (3%) (7) (2%) (12) (3%)(3) (1%) (5) (17%) (10) (1%) (17) (4%)
Dividends received deduction(1) % (2) (1%) (2) % (4) (1%)(1) % (2) (7%) (3) % (6) (1%)
Employee Stock Ownership Plan dividends paid deduction(1) % (2) (1%) (1) % (2) %(1) % 
 % (2) % (2) %
Stock-based compensation
 % (1) (3%) (7) (1%) (14) (3%)
Foreign operations
 % 
 % 3
 1% 6
 1%
 % 1
 3% 3
 % 7
 2%
Nondeductible expenses2
 1% 1
 % 4
 1% 3
 1%1
 % 2
 7% 5
 1% 5
 1%
Change in valuation allowance2
 1% 2
 1% 2
 % 
 %1
 % 16
 55% 3
 % 16
 4%
Other2
 % 2
 1% 2
 1% 
 %2
 1% (1) (4%) 4
 % (1) (1%)
Provision for income taxes as shown in the statement of earnings$52
 20% $60
 29% $85
 20% $128
 30%$41
 17% $18
 62% $126
 19% $146
 32%

AFG’s effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2017 reflects the impact of catastrophe losses in the Neon Lloyd’s insurance business for which no tax benefit is recognized. AFG maintains a full valuation allowance against the deferred tax benefits associated with losses related to Neon. Excluding the $53 million in catastrophe losses at Neon, AFG’s effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2017 was 22%, which reflects the impact of a typical level of tax-favored investment income on lower earnings before income taxes.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


The favorable impact of stock-based compensation on AFG’s effective tax rate in the first nine months of 2018 and 2017 reflects the high volume of employee stock option exercises during that period and the increase in the market price of AFG Common Stock.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (“TCJA”), which was enacted on December 22, 2017, lowered the U.S corporate tax rate to 21% and made other widespread changes to the U.S. tax code effective in 2018. Because the TCJA was enacted in December 2017, AFG recorded the $83 million decrease in its net deferred tax asset resulting from the changes in the tax code (primarily the lower corporate tax rate applicable to 2018 and future years) in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The TCJA is subject to further clarification and interpretation by the U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service. For example, the TCJA changes the way that companies calculate their insurance claims and reserves for tax purposes,

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


including revaluing those tax basis liabilities as of January 1, 2018, based on a methodology and discount factors that have not been published. The resulting transitional deferred tax liability (taxes payable over eight years under the TCJA) and offsetting increase in AFG’s insurance claims and reserves deferred tax assets, were recorded at December 31, 2017 using reasonable estimates based on available information and should be considered provisional in accordance with Securities and Exchange Commission Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 118 (“SAB 118”). Because the established transition liability was completely offset by an increase in related deferred tax assets, any adjustment to the provisional amount will not impact AFG’s effective tax rate. In accordance with SAB 118, the insurance claims and reserves transitional deferred tax liability (and offsetting adjustment to the related deferred tax assets) and any other changes in deferred taxes resulting from clarification and interpretation of the TCJA provided during 2018 (none through June 30, 2018) will be recorded in the period in which the guidance is published.
The favorable impact of stock-based compensation on AFG’s effective tax rate in the second quarters and first six months of 2018 and 2017 reflects the high volume of employee stock option exercises during that period and the increase in the market price of AFG Common Stock.published (none through September 30, 2018).

Approximately $19 million of AFG’s net operating loss carryforwards (“NOL”) subject to separate return limitation year (“SRLY”) tax rules will expire unutilized at December 31, 2018. Since AFG maintains a full valuation allowance against its SRLY NOLs, the expiration of these loss carryforwards will be offset by a corresponding reduction in the valuation allowance and will have no overall impact on AFG’s income tax expense or results of operations.

M.     Contingencies

There have been no significant changes to the matters discussed and referred to in Note M — “Contingencies” of AFG’s 2017 Form 10-K, which covers property and casualty insurance reserves for claims related to environmental exposures, asbestos and other mass tort claims and environmental and occupational injury and disease claims of former subsidiary railroad and manufacturing operations, as well as contingencies related to the sale of substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


N.    Insurance

Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves The following table provides an analysis of changes in the liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses during the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017 (in millions):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Balance at beginning of year$9,678
 $8,563
$9,678
 $8,563
Less reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance2,957
 2,302
2,957
 2,302
Net liability at beginning of year6,721
 6,261
6,721
 6,261
Provision for losses and LAE occurring in the current period1,434
 1,294
2,337
 2,237
Net increase (decrease) in the provision for claims of prior years(100) (50)
Net increase (decrease) in the provision for claims of prior years:   
Special A&E charges18
 89
Other(149) (87)
Total losses and LAE incurred1,334
 1,244
2,206
 2,239
Payments for losses and LAE of:      
Current year(294) (253)(569) (530)
Prior years(975) (953)(1,313) (1,272)
Total payments(1,269) (1,206)(1,882) (1,802)
Reserves of business disposed (*)(319) 
(319) 
Foreign currency translation and other(4) 24
(4) 32
Net liability at end of period6,463
 6,323
6,722
 6,730
Add back reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance2,630
 2,407
2,948
 2,833
Gross unpaid losses and LAE included in the balance sheet at end of period$9,093
 $8,730
$9,670
 $9,563

(*)Reflects the reinsurance to close transaction at Neon discussed below.

The net decrease in the provision for claims of prior years during the first sixnine months of 2018 reflects (i) lower than expected losses in the crop business and lower than expected claim severity in the transportation businesses (all withinclaims at National Interstate (within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) lower than anticipated claim frequency and severity in the workers’ compensation and executive liability businesses

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


(within (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment), and (iii) lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business and lower than expected claim severity in the fidelity business (all within(within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) the $18 million special charge to increase asbestos and environmental reserves and (ii) higher than expected claim severity in the Singapore branch and aviation operations (within the Property and transportation sub-segment).

The net decreaseincrease in the provision for claims of prior years during the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects (i) the $89 million special charge to increase asbestos and environmental reserves, (ii) higher than expected claim severity in the ocean marine business (within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (iii) higher than anticipated claim severity in the targeted markets and general liability businesses (all within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iv) an adjustment to the deferred gain on the retroactive reinsurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998 (included in Other specialty sub-segment). This adverse development was partially offset by (i) lower than expected losses in the crop and equine operationsbusinesses and lower than expected claim severity in the property and inland marine businessand transportation businesses (all within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses and at Neon (all within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iii) lower than anticipated claim severity in the fidelity business and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business (all(both within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) higher than expected claim severity in the ocean marine business (within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) higher than anticipated claim severity in the targeted markets and general liability business (all within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iii) an adjustment to the deferred gain on the retroactive reinsurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998 (included in Other specialty sub-segment).

In December 2017, the Neon Lloyd’s syndicate entered into a reinsurance to close transaction for the 2015 and prior years of account with StarStone Underwriting Limited, a subsidiary of Enstar Group Limited, which was effective as of December 31, 2017 (the transaction settled in early 2018). In the Lloyd’s market, a reinsurance to close transaction transfers the responsibility for discharging all of the liabilities that attach to the transferred year of account plus the right to any income due to the closing year of account in return for a premium. This transaction provided Neon with finality on its legacy business.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
ITEM 2
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

INDEX TO MD&A
Page PagePage Page
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “expects”, “projects”, “estimates”, “intends”, “plans”, “seeks”, “could”, “may”, “should”, “will” or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings, investment activities, and the amount and timing of share repurchases; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate changes; and improved loss experience.

Actual results and/or financial condition could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons including but not limited to:
changes in financial, political and economic conditions, including changes in interest and inflation rates, currency fluctuations and extended economic recessions or expansions in the U.S. and/or abroad;
performance of securities markets, including the cost of equity index call options used in the fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity business;options;
new legislation or declines in credit quality or credit ratings that could have a material impact on the valuation of securities in AFG’s investment portfolio;
the availability of capital;
regulatory actions (includingchanges in insurance law or regulation, including changes in statutory accounting rules);rules and changes in regulation of the Lloyd’s market, including modifications to the establishment of capital requirements for and approval of business plans for syndicate participation;
changes in the legal environment affecting AFG or its customers;
tax law and accounting changes, including the impact of recent changes in U.S. corporate tax law;
levels of natural catastrophes and severe weather, terrorist activities (including any nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events), incidents of war or losses resulting from civil unrest and other major losses;
disruption caused by cyber-attacks or other technology breaches or failures by AFG or its business partners and service providers, which could negatively impact AFG’s business and/or expose AFG to litigation;
development of insurance loss reserves and establishment of other reserves, particularly with respect to amounts associated with asbestos and environmental claims;
availability of reinsurance and ability of reinsurers to pay their obligations;
trends in persistency and mortality;
competitive pressures;
the ability to obtain adequate rates and policy terms;
changes in AFG’s credit ratings or the financial strength ratings assigned by major ratings agencies to AFG’s operating subsidiaries; and
the impact of the conditions in the international financial markets and the global economy (including those associated with the United Kingdom’s expected withdrawal from the European Union, or “Brexit”) relating to AFG’s international operations.
The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

OVERVIEW

Financial Condition

AFG is organized as a holding company with almost all of its operations being conducted by subsidiaries. AFG, however, has continuing cash needs for administrative expenses, the payment of principal and interest on borrowings, shareholder dividends, and taxes. Therefore, certain analyses are most meaningfully presented on a parent only basis while others are best done on a total enterprise basis. In addition, because most of its businesses are financial in nature, AFG does not prepare its consolidated financial statements using a current-noncurrent format. Consequently, certain traditional ratios and financial analysis tests are not meaningful.

Results of Operations

Through the operations of its subsidiaries, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses, and in the sale of traditional fixed, fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions, broker-dealer, registered investment advisor and education markets.

Net earnings attributable to AFG’s shareholders for the secondthird quarter and first sixnine months of 2018 were $210$204 million ($2.312.26 per share, diluted) and $355$559 million ($3.926.17 per share, diluted), respectively, compared to $145$11 million ($1.610.13 per share, diluted) and $298$309 million ($3.323.44 per share, diluted) reported in the same periods of 2017, reflecting:
higher earnings in the annuity segment,
higher underwriting profit in the property and casualty insurance segment due primarily to lower catastrophe losses and lower special charges to increase asbestos and environmental reserves,
higher net investment income in the property and casualty insurance segment,
higher underwriting profit in the property and casualty insurance segment in the first six months of 2018 compared to the first six months of 2017,
lower interest charges on borrowed money,
a lower corporate income tax rate,
realized gains on securities in the third quarter of 2018 compared to realized losses in the third quarter of 2017 and higher realized losses on securities in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to realized gains in the first sixnine months of 2017 and higher realized gains on securities in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter of 2017. Both periods in 2018 reflect the change in the fair value of equity securities that are required to be carried at fair value through net earnings under new accounting guidance adopted on January 1, 2018, and
lower income from the sale of real estate in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, and
a loss on the retirement of debt in the third quarter and first nine months of 2017.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Significant accounting policies are summarized in Note A — “Accounting Policiesto the financial statements. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) requires management to make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts reported in the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions change and, thus, impact amounts reported in the future. The areas where management believes the degree of judgment required to determine amounts recorded in the financial statements is most significant are as follows:
the establishment of insurance reserves, especially asbestos and environmental-related reserves,
the recoverability of reinsurance,
the recoverability of deferred acquisition costs,
the establishment of asbestos and environmental reserves of former railroad and manufacturing operations, and
the valuation of investments, including the determination of other-than-temporary impairments.

For a discussion of these policies, see Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Critical Accounting Policies” in AFG’s 2017 Form 10-K.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Ratios   AFG’s debt to total capital ratio on a consolidated basis is shown below (dollars in millions):
 June 30,
2018
 December 31, September 30,
2018
 December 31,
2017 20162017 2016
Principal amount of long-term debt $1,318
 $1,318
 $1,308
 $1,318
 $1,318
 $1,308
Total capital 6,211
 6,033
 5,921
 6,389
 6,033
 5,921
Ratio of debt to total capital:            
Including subordinated debt 21.2% 21.8% 22.1% 20.6% 21.8% 22.1%
Excluding subordinated debt 16.4% 16.9% 17.0% 15.9% 16.9% 17.0%

The ratio of debt to total capital is a non-GAAP measure that management believes is useful for investors, analysts and independent ratings agencies to evaluate AFG’s financial strength and liquidity and to provide insight into how AFG finances its operations. In addition, maintaining a ratio of debt, excluding subordinated debt and debt secured by real estate (if any), to total capital of 35% or lower is a financial covenant in AFG’s bank credit facility. The ratio is calculated by dividing the principal amount of AFG’s long-term debt by its total capital, which includes long-term debt, noncontrolling interests and shareholders’ equity (excluding unrealized gains (losses) on fixed maturity investments).

AFG’s ratio of earnings to fixed charges, including annuity benefits as a fixed charge, was 1.821.86 for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 1.72 for the year ended December 31, 2017. Excluding annuity benefits, this ratio was 10.4010.87 and 7.67, respectively. Although the ratio excluding annuity benefits is not required or encouraged to be disclosed under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, it is presented because interest credited to annuity policyholder accounts is not always considered a borrowing cost for an insurance company.

Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows   AFG’s principal sources of cash include insurance premiums, income from its investment portfolio and proceeds from the maturities, redemptions and sales of investments. Insurance premiums in excess of acquisition expenses and operating costs are invested until they are needed to meet policyholder obligations or made available to the parent company through dividends to cover debt obligations and corporate expenses, and to provide returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities as detailed in AFG’s Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows are shown below (in millions):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Net cash provided by operating activities$823
 $574
$1,277
 $993
Net cash used in investing activities(2,485) (1,994)(3,375) (2,230)
Net cash provided by financing activities1,134
 1,520
1,769
 1,479
Net change in cash and cash equivalents$(528) $100
$(329) $242

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities   AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations typically produce positive net operating cash flows as premiums collected and investment income exceed policy acquisition costs, claims payments and operating expenses. AFG’s net cash provided by operating activities is impacted by the level and timing of property and casualty premiums, claim and expense payments and recoveries from reinsurers. AFG’s annuity operations typically produce positive net operating cash flows as investment income exceeds acquisition costs and operating expenses. Interest credited on annuity policyholder funds is a non-cash increase in AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated liability and annuity premiums, benefits and withdrawals are considered financing activities due to the deposit-type nature of annuities. Cash flows provided by operating activities also include the activity of AFG’s managed investment entities (collateralized loan obligations) other than those activities included in investing or financing activities. The changes in the assets and liabilities of the managed investment entities included in operating activities increased cash flows from operating activities by $138$104 million during the first sixnine months of 2018 and reduced cash flows from operating activities by $72$14 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, accounting for a $210$90 million increase in cash flows from operating activities in the 2018 period compared to the 2017 period. As discussed in Note A — “Accounting PoliciesManaged Investment Entities to the financial statements, AFG has no right to use the CLO assets and no obligation to pay the CLO liabilities and such assets and liabilities are shown separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Excluding the impact of the managed investment entities, net cash provided by operating activities was $685 million$1.17 billion in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $646$979 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $39$194 million.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Net Cash Used in Investing Activities   AFG’s investing activities consist primarily of the investment of funds provided by its property and casualty and annuity businesses. Net cash used in investing activities was $2.493.38 billion for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $1.992.23 billion in the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $491 million1.15 billion. While the $229 million decrease inAs discussed below (under net cash provided by financing activities), AFG’s annuity group had net cash flows from annuity policyholders of $1.86 billion in the first sixnine months of 2018 as compared to the 2017 period (discussed below under net cash provided by financing activities) reduced the amount of cash available for investmentand $1.75 billion in the first sixnine months of 2017, which is the primary source of AFG’s cash used in investing activities. During the first nine months of 2018, compared to the same 2017 period, this reduction was more than offset by the investmentAFG also invested a portion of AFG’sits overall cash held at December 31, 2017 during the first six months of 2018.2017. In addition to the investment of funds provided by the insurance operations, investing activities also include the purchase and disposal of managed investment entity investments, which are presented separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Net investment activity in the managed investment entities was a $226189 million use of cash in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to a $4213 million usesource of cash in the 2017 period, accounting for a $184$202 million increase in net cash used in investing activities in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the same 2017 period. See Note A — “Accounting PoliciesManaged Investment Entities and Note G — “Managed Investment Entities to the financial statements.

Net Cash Provided by Financing Activities   AFG’s financing activities consist primarily of transactions with annuity policyholders, issuances and retirements of long-term debt, repurchases of common stock and dividend payments. Net cash provided by financing activities was $1.131.77 billion for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $1.521.48 billion in the first sixnine months of 2017, a decreasean increase of $386290 million. Annuity receipts exceeded annuity surrenders, benefits, withdrawals and transfers by $1.20$1.86 billion in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $1.43$1.75 billion in the first sixnine months of 2017, accounting for a $229$109 million decreaseincrease in net cash provided by financing activities in the 2018 period compared to the 2017 period. In June 2017, AFG issued $350 million of 4.50% Senior Notes due 2047, the net proceeds of which contributed $345 million to net cash provided by financing activities in the first sixnine months of 2017. Redemptions of long-term debt were a $230$355 million use of cash in the first sixnine months of 2017. Financing activities also include issuances and retirements of managed investment entity liabilities, which are nonrecourse to AFG and presented separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Issuances of managed investment entity liabilities exceeded retirements by $111109 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to retirements of managed investment liabilities exceeding issuances by $14272 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, accounting for a $31181 million decreaseincrease in net cash provided by financing activities in the 2018 period compared to the 2017 period. See Note A — “Accounting PoliciesManaged Investment Entities and Note G — “Managed Investment Entities to the financial statements.

Parent and Subsidiary Liquidity

Parent Holding Company Liquidity   Management believes AFG has sufficient resources to meet its liquidity requirements. If funds generated from operations, including dividends, tax payments and borrowings from subsidiaries, are insufficient to meet fixed charges in any period, AFG would be required to utilize parent company cash and marketable securities or to generate cash through borrowings, sales of other assets, or similar transactions.

AFG can borrow up to $500 million under its revolving credit facility which expires in June 2021. Amounts borrowed under this agreement bear interest at rates ranging from 1.00% to 1.875% (currently 1.375%) over LIBOR based on AFG’s credit rating. There were no borrowings under this agreement, or under any other parent company short-term borrowing arrangements, during 2017 or the first sixnine months of 2018.

In November 2018, AFG declared a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share of AFG Common Stock. The dividend is payable on November 26, 2018 to shareholders of record on November 16, 2018. The aggregate amount of this special dividend will be approximately $134 million. In May 2018, AFG paid a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share of AFG Common Stock totaling $134 million. In 2017, AFG paid special cash dividends of $3.50 per share of AFG Common Stock ($1.50 per share in May and $2.00 per share in November) totaling approximately $308 million.

In June 2017, AFG issued $350 million of 4.50% Senior Notes due June 2047. Net proceeds from the offering were used to redeem AFG’s $230 million outstanding principal amount of 6-3/8% Senior Notes due June 2042, at par value in June 2017 and AFG’s $125 million outstanding principal amount of 5-3/4% Senior Notes due August 2042 at par value in August 2017.

In November 2017, AFG issued an additional $240 million of 4.50% Senior Notes due in 2047 and $125 million of 3.50% Senior Notes due in 2026. The net proceeds of the offering were used to redeem AFG’s $350 million outstanding principal amount of 9-7/8% Senior Notes due in June 2019 for $388 million (including a make-whole premium of $38 million) in December 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Under a tax allocation agreement with AFG, its 80%-owned U.S. subsidiaries generally pay taxes to (or recover taxes from) AFG based on each subsidiary’s contribution to amounts due under AFG’s consolidated tax return.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Subsidiary Liquidity   Great American Life Insurance Company (“GALIC”), a wholly-owned annuity subsidiary, is a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati (“FHLB”). The FHLB makes advances and provides other banking services to member institutions, which provides the annuity operations with an additional source of liquidity. At JuneSeptember 30, 2018, GALIC had $871 million in outstanding advances from the FHLB (included in annuity benefits accumulated), bearing interest at rates ranging from 0.03% to 0.22%0.21% over LIBOR (average rate of 2.25%2.33% at JuneSeptember 30, 2018). While these advances must be repaid between 2018 and 2021 ($40 million in 2018, $345 million in 2019 $150 million in 2020 and $336$486 million in 2021), GALIC has the option to prepay all or a portion of the advances. GALIC has invested the proceeds from the advances in fixed maturity securities with similar expected lives as the advances for the purpose of earning a spread over the interest payments due to the FHLB. At JuneSeptember 30, 2018, GALIC estimated that it had additional borrowing capacity of approximately $300 million from the FHLB.

The liquidity requirements of AFG’s insurance subsidiaries relate primarily to the liabilities associated with their products as well as operating costs and expenses, payments of dividends and taxes to AFG and contributions of capital to their subsidiaries. Historically, cash flows from premiums and investment income have generally provided more than sufficient funds to meet these requirements. Funds received in excess of cash requirements are generally invested in additional marketable securities. In addition, the insurance subsidiaries generally hold a significant amount of highly liquid, short-term investments.

The excess cash flow of AFG’s property and casualty group allows it to extend the duration of its investment portfolio somewhat beyond that of its claim reserves.

In the annuity business, where profitability is largely dependent on earning a spread between invested assets and annuity liabilities, the duration of investments is generally maintained close to that of liabilities. In a rising interest rate environment, significant protection from withdrawals exists in the form of temporary and permanent surrender charges on AFG’s annuity products. With declining rates, AFG receives some protection (from spread compression) due to the ability to lower crediting rates, subject to contractually guaranteed minimum interest rates (“GMIRs”). AFG began selling policies with GMIRs below 2% in 2003; almost all new business since late 2010 has been issued with a 1% GMIR. At JuneSeptember 30, 2018, AFG could reduce the average crediting rate on approximately $27 billion of traditional fixed annuities and fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities without guaranteed withdrawal benefits by approximately 109116 basis points (on a weighted average basis). Annuity policies are subject to GMIRs at policy issuance. The table below shows the breakdown of annuity reserves by GMIR. The current interest crediting rates on substantially all of AFG’s annuities with a GMIR of 3% or higher are at their minimum.
     % of Reserves 
     June 30, December 31, 
 GMIR   2018 2017 2016 
 1 — 1.99%   78% 76% 72% 
 2 — 2.99%   4%   5%   6% 
 3 — 3.99%   9% 10% 12% 
 4.00% and above   9%   9% 10% 
           
 Annuity benefits accumulated (in millions) $34,886 $33,316 $29,907 
     % of Reserves 
     September 30, December 31, 
 GMIR   2018 2017 2016 
 1 — 1.99%   78% 76% 72% 
 2 — 2.99%     4%   5%   6% 
 3 — 3.99%     9% 10% 12% 
 4.00% and above     9%   9% 10% 
           
 Annuity benefits accumulated (in millions) $35,958 $33,316 $29,907 

AFG believes its insurance subsidiaries maintain sufficient liquidity to pay claims and benefits and operating expenses. In addition, these subsidiaries have sufficient capital to meet commitments in the event of unforeseen events such as reserve deficiencies, inadequate premium rates or reinsurer insolvencies. Nonetheless, changes in statutory accounting rules, significant declines in the fair value of the insurance subsidiaries’ investment portfolios or significant ratings downgrades on these investments, could create a need for additional capital.

Investments   AFG’s investment portfolio at JuneSeptember 30, 2018, includes $39.6540.24 billion in fixed maturity securities classified as available for sale and carried at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in a separate component of shareholders’ equity on an after-tax basis and $137103 million in fixed maturities classified as trading with changes in unrealized holding gains or losses included in net investment income. In addition, AFG’s investment portfolio includes $1.62$1.65 billion in equity securities carried at fair value with holding gains and losses included in realized gains (losses) on securities and $160$176 million in equity securities carried at fair value with unrealized holding gains and losses included in net investment income.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Fair values for AFG’s portfolio are determined by AFG’s internal investment professionals using data from nationally recognized pricing services as well as non-binding broker quotes. Fair values of equity securities are generally based on

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


published closing prices. For mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), which comprise approximately 10%9% of AFG’s fixed maturities, prices for each security are generally obtained from both pricing services and broker quotes. For the remainder of AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio, approximately 73%72% are priced using pricing services and the balance is priced primarily by using non-binding broker quotes. When prices obtained for the same security vary, AFG’s internal investment professionals select the price they believe is most indicative of an exit price.

The pricing services use a variety of observable inputs to estimate fair value of fixed maturities that do not trade on a daily basis. Based upon information provided by the pricing services, these inputs include, but are not limited to, recent reported trades, benchmark yields, issuer spreads, bids or offers, reference data, and measures of volatility. Included in the pricing of MBS are estimates of the rate of future prepayments and defaults of principal over the remaining life of the underlying collateral. Due to the lack of transparency in the process that brokers use to develop prices, valuations that are based on brokers’ prices are classified as Level 3 in the GAAP hierarchy unless the price can be corroborated, for example, by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs.

Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, AFG communicates directly with pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the services to value specific securities.

In general, the fair value of AFG’s fixed maturity investments is inversely correlated to changes in interest rates. The following table demonstrates the sensitivity of such fair values to reasonably likely changes in interest rates by illustrating the estimated effect on AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio and accumulated other comprehensive income that an immediate increase of 100 basis points in the interest rate yield curve would have at JuneSeptember 30, 2018 (dollars in millions). Effects of increases or decreases from the 100 basis points illustrated would be approximately proportional.

Fair value of fixed maturity portfolio$39,785
$40,347
Percentage impact on fair value of 100 bps increase in interest rates(4.5%)(4.5%)
Pretax impact on fair value of fixed maturity portfolio$(1,790)$(1,816)
Offsetting adjustments to deferred policy acquisition costs and other balance sheet amounts750
750
Estimated pretax impact on accumulated other comprehensive income(1,040)(1,066)
Deferred income tax218
224
Estimated after-tax impact on accumulated other comprehensive income$(822)$(842)

Approximately 90% of the fixed maturities held by AFG at JuneSeptember 30, 2018, were rated “investment grade” (credit rating of AAA to BBB) by nationally recognized rating agencies. Investment grade securities generally bear lower yields and lower degrees of risk than those that are unrated and non-investment grade. Management believes that the high quality investment portfolio should generate a stable and predictable investment return.

MBS are subject to significant prepayment risk due to the fact that, in periods of declining interest rates, mortgages may be repaid more rapidly than scheduled as borrowers refinance higher rate mortgages to take advantage of lower rates. Although interest rates have been low in recent years, tighter lending standards have resulted in fewer buyers being able to refinance the mortgages underlying much of AFG’s non-agency residential MBS portfolio.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Summarized information for AFG’s MBS (including those classified as trading) at JuneSeptember 30, 2018, is shown in the table below (dollars in millions). Agency-backed securities are those issued by a U.S. government-backed agency; Alt-A mortgages are those with risk profiles between prime and subprime. The average life of the residential and commercial MBS is approximately 4-1/2 years and 5 years, respectively.
 
Amortized
Cost
 Fair Value 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
 
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
 
% Rated
Investment
Grade
 
Amortized
Cost
 Fair Value 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
 
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
 
% Rated
Investment
Grade
Collateral type                    
Residential:                    
Agency-backed $189
 $185
 98% $(4) 100% $177
 $173
 98% $(4) 100%
Non-agency prime 1,076
 1,231
 114% 155
 28% 1,009
 1,154
 114% 145
 27%
Alt-A 891
 1,015
 114% 124
 14% 837
 953
 114% 116
 15%
Subprime 410
 457
 111% 47
 28% 387
 431
 111% 44
 28%
Commercial 920
 934
 102% 14
 94% 913
 923
 101% 10
 94%
 $3,486
 $3,822
 110% $336
 44% $3,323
 $3,634
 109% $311
 44%

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) assigns creditworthiness designations on a scale of 1 to 6 with 1 being the highest quality and 6 being the lowest quality. The NAIC retains third-party investment management firms to assist in the determination of appropriate NAIC designations for MBS based not only on the probability of loss (which is the primary basis of ratings by the major ratings firms), but also on the severity of loss and statutory carrying value. At JuneSeptember 30, 2018, 97% (based on statutory carrying value of $3.44$3.28 billion) of AFG’s MBS had an NAIC designation of 1.

Municipal bonds represented approximately 17% of AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio at JuneSeptember 30, 2018. AFG’s municipal bond portfolio is high quality, with 99% of the securities rated investment grade at that date. The portfolio is well diversified across the states of issuance and individual issuers. At JuneSeptember 30, 2018, approximately 77% of the municipal bond portfolio was held in revenue bonds, with the remaining 23% held in general obligation bonds. AFG does not own general obligation bonds issued by Puerto Rico.

Summarized information for the unrealized gains and losses recorded in AFG’s Balance Sheet at JuneSeptember 30, 2018, is shown in the following table (dollars in millions). Approximately $607563 million of available for sale fixed maturity securities had no unrealized gains or losses at JuneSeptember 30, 2018. 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Gains
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Losses
Securities
With
Unrealized
Gains
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Losses
Available for Sale Fixed Maturities      
Fair value of securities$20,606
 $18,435
$17,894
 $21,787
Amortized cost of securities$19,764
 $18,873
$17,160
 $22,330
Gross unrealized gain (loss)$842
 $(438)$734
 $(543)
Fair value as % of amortized cost104% 98%104% 98%
Number of security positions3,212
 2,043
2,876
 2,392
Number individually exceeding $2 million gain or loss53
 6
50
 10
Concentration of gains (losses) by type or industry (exceeding 5% of unrealized):      
Mortgage-backed securities$347
 $(11)$324
 $(13)
Asset-backed securities122
 (64)
States and municipalities162
 (53)117
 (98)
Asset-backed securities132
 (46)
Banks, savings and credit institutions43
 (87)32
 (100)
Manufacturing32
 (53)29
 (57)
Insurance companies20
 (40)15
 (47)
Percentage rated investment grade86% 96%84% 96%


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of AFG’s available for sale fixed maturity securities at JuneSeptember 30, 2018, based on their fair values. Securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers. 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Gains
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Losses
Securities
With
Unrealized
Gains
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Losses
Maturity      
One year or less4% 1%5% 1%
After one year through five years22% 17%25% 17%
After five years through ten years24% 45%24% 41%
After ten years12% 13%9% 14%
62% 76%63% 73%
Asset-backed securities (average life of approximately 4-1/2 years)22% 22%21% 24%
Mortgage-backed securities (average life of approximately 4-1/2 years)16% 2%16% 3%
100% 100%100% 100%

The table below (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturity securities by dollar amount:
  
Aggregate
Fair
Value
 
Aggregate
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
 
Fair
Value as
% of Cost
Fixed Maturities at June 30, 2018      
Securities with unrealized gains:      
Exceeding $500,000 (457 securities) $5,797
 $534
 110%
$500,000 or less (2,755 securities) 14,809
 308
 102%
  $20,606
 $842
 104%
Securities with unrealized losses:      
Exceeding $500,000 (235 securities) $4,529
 $(213) 96%
$500,000 or less (1,808 securities) 13,906
 (225) 98%
  $18,435
 $(438) 98%
  
Aggregate
Fair
Value
 
Aggregate
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
 
Fair
Value as
% of Cost
Fixed Maturities at September 30, 2018      
Securities with unrealized gains:      
Exceeding $500,000 (376 securities) $4,334
 $460
 112%
$500,000 or less (2,500 securities) 13,560
 274
 102%
  $17,894
 $734
 104%
Securities with unrealized losses:      
Exceeding $500,000 (307 securities) $6,001
 $(275) 96%
$500,000 or less (2,085 securities) 15,786
 (268) 98%
  $21,787
 $(543) 98%

The following table (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized losses for all securities with unrealized losses by issuer quality and the length of time those securities have been in an unrealized loss position: 
  
Aggregate
Fair
Value
 
Aggregate
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value as
% of Cost
Securities with Unrealized Losses at June 30, 2018      
Investment grade fixed maturities with losses for:      
Less than one year (1,649 securities) $16,260
 $(344) 98%
One year or longer (249 securities) 1,353
 (63) 96%
  $17,613
 $(407) 98%
Non-investment grade fixed maturities with losses for:      
Less than one year (95 securities) $608
 $(16) 97%
One year or longer (50 securities) 214
 (15) 93%
  $822
 $(31) 96%
  
Aggregate
Fair
Value
 
Aggregate
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value as
% of Cost
Securities with Unrealized Losses at September 30, 2018      
Investment grade fixed maturities with losses for:      
Less than one year (1,865 securities) $18,458
 $(388) 98%
One year or longer (392 securities) 2,427
 (125) 95%
  $20,885
 $(513) 98%
Non-investment grade fixed maturities with losses for:      
Less than one year (81 securities) $626
 $(12) 98%
One year or longer (54 securities) 276
 (18) 94%
  $902
 $(30) 97%

When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be other-than-temporary, a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (accounted for as a realized loss) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced by the amount of the charge. The determination of whether unrealized losses are other-than-temporary requires judgment based on subjective as well as objective factors as detailed in AFG’s 2017 Form 10-K under Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Investments.”


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Based on its analysis, management believes AFG will recover its cost basis in the fixed maturity securities with unrealized losses and that AFG has the ability to hold the securities until they recover in value and had no intent to sell them at JuneSeptember 30, 2018. Although AFG has the ability to continue holding its fixed maturity investments with unrealized losses, its intent to hold them may change due to deterioration in the issuers’ creditworthiness, decisions to lessen exposure to a particular issuer or industry, asset/liability management decisions, market movements, changes in views about appropriate asset allocation or the desire to offset taxable realized gains. Should AFG’s ability or intent change with regard to a particular security, a charge for impairment would likely be required. While it is not possible to accurately predict if or when a specific security will become impaired, charges for other-than-temporary impairment could be material to results of operations in future periods. Significant declines in the fair value of AFG’s investment portfolio could have a significant adverse effect on AFG’s liquidity. For information on AFG’s realized gains (losses) on securities, including charges for other-than-temporary impairment, see “Results of Operations — Consolidated Realized Gains (Losses) on Securities.”

Uncertainties   Management believes that the areas posing the greatest risk of material loss are the adequacy of its insurance reserves and contingencies arising out of its former railroad and manufacturing operations. See “Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges” under “Results of Operations — Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Net prior year reserve development” for the quarters ended September 30, 2018 and 2017 and Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Uncertainties — Asbestos and Environmental-related (“A&E”) Insurance Reserves” in AFG’s 2017 Form 10-K. In addition to its ongoing internal monitoring of asbestos and environmental exposures, AFG has periodically conducted comprehensive external studies of its asbestos and environmental reserves relating to the run-off operations of its property and casualty insurance segment and exposures related to its former railroad and manufacturing operations with the aid of specialty actuarial, engineering and consulting firms and outside counsel, generally every two years, with an in-depth internal review during the intervening years. AFG has scheduled its 2018 internal review of these liabilities to be completed in the third quarter of 2018.

MANAGED INVESTMENT ENTITIES

Accounting standards require AFG to consolidate its investments in collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”) entities that it manages and owns an interest in (in the form of debt). See Note AAccounting Policies Managed Investment Entities and Note G — “Managed Investment Entities to the financial statements. The effect of consolidating these entities is shown in the tables below (in millions). The “Before CLO Consolidation” columns include AFG’s investment and earnings in the CLOs on an unconsolidated basis.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING BALANCE SHEET
Before CLO
Consolidation
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
Consolidated
As Reported
Before CLO
Consolidation
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
Consolidated
As Reported
June 30, 2018       
September 30, 2018       
Assets:              
Cash and investments$46,970
 $
 $(191) (a) $46,779
$48,031
 $
 $(190) (a) $47,841
Assets of managed investment entities
 5,032
 
 5,032

 4,998
 
 4,998
Other assets10,024
 
 (1) (a) 10,023
11,352
 
 (1) (a) 11,351
Total assets$56,994
 $5,032
 $(192) $61,834
$59,383
 $4,998
 $(191) $64,190
Liabilities:              
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums$11,632
 $
 $
 $11,632
$12,410
 $
 $
 $12,410
Annuity, life, accident and health benefits and reserves35,533
 
 
 35,533
36,601
 
 
 36,601
Liabilities of managed investment entities
 5,032
 (192) (a) 4,840

 4,998
 (191) (a) 4,807
Long-term debt and other liabilities4,745
 
 
 4,745
5,208
 
 
 5,208
Total liabilities51,910
 5,032
 (192) 56,750
54,219
 4,998
 (191) 59,026
              
Redeemable noncontrolling interests
 
 
 

 
 
 
              
Shareholders’ equity:              
Common Stock and Capital surplus1,309
 
 
 1,309
1,320
 
 
 1,320
Retained earnings3,628
 
 
 3,628
3,800
 
 
 3,800
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax147
 
 
 147
44
 
 
 44
Total shareholders’ equity5,084
 
 
 5,084
5,164
 
 
 5,164
Noncontrolling interests
 
 
 

 
 
 
Total equity5,084
 
 
 5,084
5,164
 
 
 5,164
Total liabilities and equity$56,994
 $5,032
 $(192) $61,834
$59,383
 $4,998
 $(191) $64,190
              
December 31, 2017              
Assets:              
Cash and investments$46,262
 $
 $(214) (a) $46,048
$46,262
 $
 $(214) (a) $46,048
Assets of managed investment entities
 4,902
 
 4,902

 4,902
 
 4,902
Other assets9,709
 
 (1) (a) 9,708
9,709
 
 (1) (a) 9,708
Total assets$55,971
 $4,902
 $(215) $60,658
$55,971
 $4,902
 $(215) $60,658
Liabilities:              
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums$12,088
 $
 $
 $12,088
$12,088
 $
 $
 $12,088
Annuity, life, accident and health benefits and reserves33,974
 
 
 33,974
33,974
 
 
 33,974
Liabilities of managed investment entities
 4,902
 (215) (a) 4,687

 4,902
 (215) (a) 4,687
Long-term debt and other liabilities4,575
 
 
 4,575
4,575
 
 
 4,575
Total liabilities50,637
 4,902
 (215) 55,324
50,637
 4,902
 (215) 55,324
              
Redeemable noncontrolling interests3
 
 
 3
3
 
 
 3
              
Shareholders’ equity:              
Common Stock and Capital surplus1,269
 
 
 1,269
1,269
 
 
 1,269
Retained earnings3,248
 
 
 3,248
3,248
 
 
 3,248
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax813
 
 
 813
813
 
 
 813
Total shareholders’ equity5,330
 
 
 5,330
5,330
 
 
 5,330
Noncontrolling interests1
 
 
 1
1
 
 
 1
Total equity5,331
 
 
 5,331
5,331
 
 
 5,331
Total liabilities and equity$55,971
 $4,902
 $(215) $60,658
$55,971
 $4,902
 $(215) $60,658

(a)Elimination of the fair value of AFG’s investment in CLOs and related accrued interest.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF EARNINGS
Before CLO
Consolidation (a)
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
Consolidated
As Reported
Before CLO
Consolidation (a)
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
Consolidated
As Reported
Three months ended June 30, 2018       
Three months ended September 30, 2018       
Revenues:              
Insurance net earned premiums$1,167
 $
 $
 $1,167
$1,333
 $
 $
 $1,333
Net investment income534
 
 (4) (b) 530
531
 
 (4) (b) 527
Realized gains on securities31
 
 
 31
34
 
 
 34
Income (loss) of managed investment entities:              
Investment income
 64
 
 64

 65
 
 65
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 
 (2) (b) (2)
 (5) 
 (b) (5)
Other income47
 
 (4) (c) 43
58
 
 (4) (c) 54
Total revenues1,779
 64
 (10) 1,833
1,956
 60
 (8) 2,008
Costs and Expenses:              
Insurance benefits and expenses1,414
 
 
 1,414
1,599
 
 
 1,599
Expenses of managed investment entities
 64
 (10) (b)(c)  54

 60
 (8) (b)(c)  52
Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses105
 
 
 105
113
 
 
 113
Total costs and expenses1,519
 64
 (10) 1,573
1,712
 60
 (8) 1,764
Earnings before income taxes260
 
 
 260
244
 
 
 244
Provision for income taxes52
 
 
 52
41
 
 
 41
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests208
 
 
 208
203
 
 
 203
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests(2) 
 
 (2)(1) 
 
 (1)
Net earnings attributable to shareholders$210
 $
 $
 $210
$204
 $
 $
 $204
              
Three months ended June 30, 2017       
Three months ended September 30, 2017       
Revenues:              
Insurance net earned premiums$1,070
 $
 $
 $1,070
$1,273
 $
 $
 $1,273
Net investment income465
 
 (5) (b) 460
476
 
 (5) (b) 471
Realized gains on securities8
 
 
 8
Realized losses on securities(12) 
 
 (12)
Income (loss) of managed investment entities:              
Investment income
 50
 
 50

 54
 
 54
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 21
 (10) (b) 11

 1
 
 (b) 1
Other income52
 
 (5) (c) 47
53
 
 (5) (c) 48
Total revenues1,595
 71
 (20) 1,646
1,790
 55
 (10) 1,835
Costs and Expenses:              
Insurance benefits and expenses1,279
 
 
 1,279
1,628
 
 
 1,628
Expenses of managed investment entities
 71
 (20) (b)(c)  51

 55
 (10) (b)(c)  45
Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses111
 
 
 111
133
 
 
 133
Total costs and expenses1,390
 71
 (20) 1,441
1,761
 55
 (10) 1,806
Earnings before income taxes205
 
 
 205
29
 
 
 29
Provision for income taxes60
 
 
 60
18
 
 
 18
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests145
 
 
 145
11
 
 
 11
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests
 
 
 

 
 
 
Net earnings attributable to shareholders$145
 $
 $
 $145
$11
 $
 $
 $11

(a)Includes income of $4 million and $5 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, representing the change in fair value of AFG’s CLO investments plus $4 million and $5 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, in CLO management fees earned.
(b)Elimination of the change in fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs, including $6$4 million and $15$5 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, in distributions recorded as interest expense by the CLOs.
(c)Elimination of management fees earned by AFG.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF EARNINGS
Before CLO
Consolidation (a)
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
Consolidated
As Reported
Before CLO
Consolidation (a)
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
Consolidated
As Reported
Six months ended June 30, 2018       
Nine months ended September 30, 2018       
Revenues:              
Insurance net earned premiums$2,280
 $
 $
 $2,280
$3,613
 $
 $
 $3,613
Net investment income1,032
 
 (7) (b) 1,025
1,563
 
 (11) (b) 1,552
Realized losses on securities(62) 
 
 (62)(28) 
 
 (28)
Income (loss) of managed investment entities:              
Investment income
 122
 
 122

 187
 
 187
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 (1) (4) (b) (5)
 (6) (4) (b) (10)
Other income100
 
 (8) (c) 92
158
 
 (12) (c) 146
Total revenues3,350
 121
 (19) 3,452
5,306
 181
 (27) 5,460
Costs and Expenses:              
Insurance benefits and expenses2,711
 
 
 2,711
4,310
 
 
 4,310
Expenses of managed investment entities
 121
 (19) (b)(c) 102

 181
 (27) (b)(c) 154
Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses205
 
 
 205
318
 
 
 318
Total costs and expenses2,916
 121
 (19) 3,018
4,628
 181
 (27) 4,782
Earnings before income taxes434
 
 
 434
678
 
 
 678
Provision for income taxes85
 
 
 85
126
 
 
 126
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests349
 
 
 349
552
 
 
 552
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests(6) 
 
 (6)(7) 
 
 (7)
Net earnings attributable to shareholders$355
 $
 $
 $355
$559
 $
 $
 $559
              
Six months ended June 30, 2017       
Nine months ended September 30, 2017       
Revenues:              
Insurance net earned premiums$2,098
 $
 $
 $2,098
$3,371
 $
 $
 $3,371
Net investment income906
 
 (11) (b) 895
1,382
 
 (16) (b) 1,366
Realized gains on securities11
 
 
 11
Realized losses on securities(1) 
 
 (1)
Income (loss) of managed investment entities:              
Investment income
 101
 
 101

 155
 
 155
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 21
 (10) (b) 11

 22
 (10) (b) 12
Other income115
 
 (9) (c) 106
168
 
 (14) (c) 154
Total revenues3,130
 122
 (30) 3,222
4,920
 177
 (40) 5,057
Costs and Expenses:              
Insurance benefits and expenses2,485
 
 
 2,485
4,113
 
 
 4,113
Expenses of managed investment entities
 122
 (30) (b)(c) 92

 177
 (40) (b)(c) 137
Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses217
 
 
 217
350
 
 
 350
Total costs and expenses2,702
 122
 (30) 2,794
4,463
 177
 (40) 4,600
Earnings before income taxes428
 
 
 428
457
 
 
 457
Provision for income taxes128
 
 
 128
146
 
 
 146
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests300
 
 
 300
311
 
 
 311
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests2
 
 
 2
2
 
 
 2
Net earnings attributable to shareholders$298
 $
 $
 $298
$309
 $
 $
 $309

(a)Includes income of $7$11 million and $11$16 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017, respectively, representing the change in fair value of AFG’s CLO investments plus $8$12 million and $9$14 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017, respectively, in CLO management fees earned.
(b)Elimination of the change in fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs, including $11$15 million and $21$26 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017, respectively, in distributions recorded as interest expense by the CLOs.
(c)Elimination of management fees earned by AFG.



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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

General   AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. For example, core net operating earnings excludes realized gains (losses) on securities because such gains and losses are influenced significantly by financial markets, interest rates and the timing of sales. Similarly, significant gains and losses from the sale of real estate are excluded from core earnings as they are influenced by the timing of sales and realized gains (losses) on subsidiaries are excluded because such gains and losses are largely the result of the changing business strategy and market opportunities. In addition, special charges related to coverage that AFG no longer writes for asbestos and environmental exposures are excluded from core earnings. The following table (in millions, except per share amounts) identifies non-core items and reconciles net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure. AFG believes core net operating earnings is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends and for management to evaluate financial performance against historical results because it believes this provides a more comparable measure of its continuing business.
Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017
Components of net earnings attributable to shareholders:              
Core operating earnings before income taxes$229
 $204
 $496
 $424
$237
 $158
 $733
 $582
Pretax non-core items:              
Realized gains (losses) on securities31
 8
 (62) 11
34
 (12) (28) (1)
Special A&E charges(27) (113) (27) (113)
Loss on retirement of debt
 (7) 
 (7)
 (4) 
 (11)
Earnings before income taxes260
 205
 434
 428
244
 29
 678
 457
Provision (credit) for income taxes:              
Core operating earnings46
 59
 98
 126
40
 63
 138
 189
Non-core items6
 1
 (13) 2
1
 (45) (12) (43)
Total provision for income taxes52
 60
 85
 128
41
 18
 126
 146
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests208
 145
 349
 300
203
 11
 552
 311
Less net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests:              
Core operating earnings (losses)(2) 
 (6) 2
(1) 
 (7) 2
Non-core items
 
 
 

 
 
 
Total net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests(2) 
 (6) 2
(1) 
 (7) 2
Net earnings attributable to shareholders$210
 $145
 $355
 $298
$204
 $11
 $559
 $309
              
Net earnings:              
Core net operating earnings$185
 $145
 $404
 $296
$198
 $95
 $602
 $391
Non-core items25
 
 (49) 2
6
 (84) (43) (82)
Net earnings attributable to shareholders$210
 $145
 $355
 $298
$204
 $11
 $559
 $309
              
Diluted per share amounts:              
Core net operating earnings$2.04
 $1.61
 $4.46
 $3.29
$2.19
 $1.06
 $6.65
 $4.35
Realized gains (losses) on securities0.27
 0.05
 (0.54) 0.08
0.31
 (0.08) (0.24) (0.01)
Special A&E charges(0.24) (0.82) (0.24) (0.82)
Loss on retirement of debt
 (0.05) 
 (0.05)
 (0.03) 
 (0.08)
Net earnings attributable to shareholders$2.31
 $1.61
 $3.92
 $3.32
$2.26
 $0.13
 $6.17
 $3.44

Net earnings attributable to shareholders increased $65$193 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 due to higher core net operating earnings, higherlower special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017, net realized gains on securities in the 2018 period compared to the net realized losses on securities in the 2017 period and a loss on retirement of debt in the secondthird quarter of 2017. Core net operating earnings increased $40$103 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017, reflecting higher earnings in the annuity segment, higher underwriting profit in the property and casualty segment due primarily to lower catastrophe losses, higher net investment income in the property and casualty insurance segment, lower interest charges on borrowed money and a lower corporate

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


income tax rate. Realized gains on securities in the secondthird quarter of 2018 includes the increase in fair value of equity securities that are required to be carried at fair value through net earnings under new accounting guidance adopted on January 1, 2018.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Net earnings attributable to shareholders increased $57$250 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 due primarily to higher core net operating earnings, lower special A&E charges in the 2018 period compared to the 2017 period and a loss on retirement of debt in the 2017 period, partially offset by higher net realized losses on securities in the 2018 period compared to net realized gains on securities in the 2017 period. Core net operating earnings increased $108$211 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017, reflecting higher earnings in the annuity segment, higher underwriting profit in the property and casualty insurance segment due primarily to lower catastrophe losses and higher favorable prior year reserve development, higher net investment income in the property and casualty insurance segment, lower interest charges on borrowed money, and a lower corporate income tax rate.rate and a loss on retirement of debt in the 2017 period. Realized losses on securities in the first sixnine months of 2018 includes the decline in fair value of equity securities that are required to be carried at fair value through net earnings under new accounting guidance adopted on January 1, 2018.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS — QUARTERS ENDED JUNESEPTEMBER 30, 2018 AND 2017

Segmented Statement of Earnings   AFG reports its business as three segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance (“P&C”), (ii) Annuity and (iii) Other, which includes run-off long-term care and life, holding company costs and income and expenses related to the managed investment entities (“MIEs”).

Effective January 1, 2018, the results of AFG’s run-off long-term care and life businesses are included in the “Other” segment instead of as a separate reportable segment based on the immaterial size of the remaining operations. Prior periods amounts were reclassified for consistent presentation.

AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. The following tables for the three months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 identify such items by segment and reconcile net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure that AFG believes is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends (in millions):
    Other          Other      
P&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP TotalP&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP Total
Three months ended June 30, 2018             
Three months ended September 30, 2018             
Revenues:                          
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums$1,161
 $
 $
 $
 $1,161
 $
 $1,161
$1,327
 $
 $
 $
 $1,327
 $
 $1,327
Life, accident and health net earned premiums
 
 
 6
 6
 
 6

 
 
 6
 6
 
 6
Net investment income115
 412
 (4) 7
 530
 
 530
108
 413
 (4) 10
 527
 
 527
Realized gains on securities
 
 
 
 
 31
 31

 
 
 
 
 34
 34
Income (loss) of MIEs:                          
Investment income
 
 64
 
 64
 
 64

 
 65
 
 65
 
 65
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 
 (2) 
 (2) 
 (2)
 
 (5) 
 (5) 
 (5)
Other income2
 27
 (4) 18
 43
 
 43
4
 27
 (4) 27
 54
 
 54
Total revenues1,278
 439
 54
 31
 1,802
 31
 1,833
1,439
 440
 52
 43
 1,974
 34
 2,008
                          
Costs and Expenses:                          
Property and casualty insurance:                          
Losses and loss adjustment expenses693
 
 
 
 693
 
 693
854
 
 
 
 854
 18
 872
Commissions and other underwriting expenses396
 
 
 4
 400
 
 400
417
 
 
 7
 424
 
 424
Annuity benefits
 260
 
 
 260
 
 260

 222
 
 
 222
 
 222
Life, accident and health benefits
 
 
 11
 11
 
 11

 
 
 10
 10
 
 10
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
 49
 
 1
 50
 
 50

 69
 
 2
 71
 
 71
Interest charges on borrowed money
 
 
 16
 16
 
 16

 
 
 15
 15
 
 15
Expenses of MIEs
 
 54
 
 54
 
 54

 
 52
 
 52
 
 52
Other expenses11
 31
 
 47
 89
 
 89
11
 32
 
 46
 89
 9
 98
Total costs and expenses1,100
 340
 54
 79
 1,573
 
 1,573
1,282
 323
 52
 80
 1,737
 27
 1,764
Earnings before income taxes178
 99
 
 (48) 229
 31
 260
157
 117
 
 (37) 237
 7
 244
Provision for income taxes37
 21
 
 (12) 46
 6
 52
26
 19
 
 (5) 40
 1
 41
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests141
 78
 
 (36) 183
 25
 208
131
 98
 
 (32) 197
 6
 203
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests(2) 
 
 
 (2) 
 (2)
Less: Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests(1) 
 
 
 (1) 
 (1)
Core Net Operating Earnings143
 78
 
 (36) 185
    132
 98
 
 (32) 198
    
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):                          
Realized gains on securities, net of tax
 
 
 25
 25
 (25) 

 
 
 27
 27
 (27) 
Special A&E charges, net of tax(14) 
 
 (7) (21) 21
 
Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders$143
 $78
 $
 $(11) $210
 $
 $210
$118
 $98
 $
 $(12) $204
 $
 $204

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


 Other       Other      
P&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP TotalP&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP Total
Three months ended June 30, 2017             
Three months ended September 30, 2017             
Revenues:                          
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums$1,065
 $
 $
 $
 $1,065
 $
 $1,065
$1,267
 $
 $
 $
 $1,267
 $
 $1,267
Life, accident and health net earned premiums
 
 
 5
 5
 
 5

 
 
 6
 6
 
 6
Net investment income96
 360
 (5) 9
 460
 
 460
94
 375
 (5) 7
 471
 
 471
Realized gains on securities
 
 
 
 
 8
 8
Realized losses on securities
 
 
 
 
 (12) (12)
Income (loss) of MIEs:                          
Investment income
 
 50
 
 50
 
 50

 
 54
 
 54
 
 54
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 
 11
 
 11
 
 11

 
 1
 
 1
 
 1
Other income4
 26
 (5) 22
 47
 
 47
1
 26
 (5) 26
 48
 
 48
Total revenues1,165
 386
 51
 36
 1,638
 8
 1,646
1,362
 401
 45
 39
 1,847
 (12) 1,835
                          
Costs and Expenses:                          
Property and casualty insurance:                          
Losses and loss adjustment expenses635
 
 
 
 635
 
 635
906
 
 
 
 906
 89
 995
Commissions and other underwriting expenses358
 
 
 8
 366
 
 366
353
 
 
 4
 357
 
 357
Annuity benefits
 224
 
 
 224
 
 224

 215
 
 
 215
 
 215
Life, accident and health benefits
 
 
 6
 6
 
 6

 
 
 6
 6
 
 6
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
 47
 
 1
 48
 
 48

 54
 
 1
 55
 
 55
Interest charges on borrowed money
 
 
 23
 23
 
 23

 
 
 21
 21
 
 21
Expenses of MIEs
 
 51
 
 51
 
 51

 
 45
 
 45
 
 45
Other expenses9
 30
 
 42
 81
 7
 88
8
 30
 
 46
 84
 28
 112
Total costs and expenses1,002
 301
 51
 80
 1,434
 7
 1,441
1,267
 299
 45
 78
 1,689
 117
 1,806
Earnings before income taxes163
 85
 
 (44) 204
 1
 205
95
 102
 
 (39) 158
 (129) 29
Provision for income taxes52
 30
 
 (23) 59
 1
 60
43
 34
 
 (14) 63
 (45) 18
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests111
 55
 
 (21) 145
 
 145
52
 68
 
 (25) 95
 (84) 11
Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Core Net Operating Earnings111
 55
 
 (21) 145
    52
 68
 
 (25) 95
    
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):                          
Realized gains on securities, net of tax
 
 
 5
 5
 (5) 
Realized losses on securities, net of tax
 
 
 (8) (8) 8
 
Special A&E charges, net of tax(58) 
 
 (16) (74) 74
 
Loss on retirement of debt, net of tax
 
 
 (5) (5) 5
 

 
 
 (2) (2) 2
 
Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders$111
 $55
 $
 $(21) $145
 $
 $145
$(6) $68
 $
 $(51) $11
 $
 $11

(a)
See the reconciliation of core earnings to GAAP net earnings under “Results of Operations — General” for details on the tax and noncontrolling interest impacts of these reconciling items.

Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Results of Operations   Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the company’s performance. Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio, which is a sum of the ratios of losses and loss adjustment expenses, and commissions and other underwriting expenses to premiums. A combined ratio under 100% indicates an underwriting profit. The combined ratio does not reflect net investment income, other income, other expenses or federal income taxes.

AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations contributed $178$139 million in GAAP pretax earnings in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $163$6 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $15$133 million (9%(2,217%). Property and casualty core pretax earnings were $157 million in the third quarter of 2018 compared to $95 million in the third quarter of 2017, an increase of $62 million (65%). The increase in GAAP and core pretax earnings reflects higher net investment incomeunderwriting profit due primarily to lower catastrophe losses in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017 and higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments. These high returns should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods.net investment income


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


reflecting higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments. The high returns from limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods. The increase in GAAP pretax earnings also reflects lower special A&E charges in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017.

The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its property and casualty insurance operations for the three months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Gross written premiums$1,665
 $1,503
 11%$2,104
 $2,104
 %
Reinsurance premiums ceded(408) (373) 9%(648) (671) (3%)
Net written premiums1,257
 1,130
 11%1,456
 1,433
 2%
Change in unearned premiums(96) (65) 48%(129) (166) (22%)
Net earned premiums1,161
 1,065
 9%1,327
 1,267
 5%
Loss and loss adjustment expenses693
 635
 9%
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (*)854
 906
 (6%)
Commissions and other underwriting expenses396
 358
 11%417
 353
 18%
Underwriting gain72
 72
 %
Core underwriting gain56
 8
 600%
    

    

Net investment income115
 96
 20%108
 94
 15%
Other income and expenses, net(9) (5) 80%(7) (7) %
Earnings before income taxes$178
 $163
 9%
Core earnings before income taxes157
 95
 65%
Pretax non-core special A&E charges(18) (89) (80%)
GAAP earnings before income taxes$139
 $6
 2,217%
     
(*) Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $18 million and $89 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively.(*) Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $18 million and $89 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively.
     
          
Combined Ratios:          
Specialty lines    Change    Change
Loss and LAE ratio59.7% 59.5% 0.2%64.3% 71.4% (7.1%)
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.7% 0.3%31.4% 27.9% 3.5%
Combined ratio93.7% 93.2% 0.5%95.7% 99.3% (3.6%)
          
Aggregate — including exited lines          
Loss and LAE ratio59.7% 59.7% %65.8% 78.5% (12.7%)
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.7% 0.3%31.4% 27.9% 3.5%
Combined ratio93.7% 93.4% 0.3%97.2% 106.4% (9.2%)

AFG reports the underwriting performance of its Specialty property and casualty insurance business in the following sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, (ii) Specialty casualty and (iii) Specialty financial.

To understand the overall profitability of particular lines, the timing of claims payments and the related impact of investment income must be considered. Certain “short-tail” lines of business (primarily property coverages) generally have quick loss payouts, which reduce the time funds are held, thereby limiting investment income earned thereon. In contrast, “long-tail” lines of business (primarily liability coverages and workers’ compensation) generally have payouts that are either structured over many years or take many years to settle, thereby significantly increasing investment income earned on related premiums received.

Gross Written Premiums
Gross written premiums (“GWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $1.67 billion for the second quarter of 2018 compared to $1.50 billion for the second quarter of 2017, an increase of $162 million (11%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty gross written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 Three months ended June 30,  
 2018 2017  
 GWP % GWP % % Change
Property and transportation$615
 37% $573
 38% 7%
Specialty casualty858
 52% 756
 50% 13%
Specialty financial192
 11% 174
 12% 10%
 $1,665
 100% $1,503
 100% 11%


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Gross Written Premiums
Gross written premiums (“GWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $2.10 billion for both the third quarter of 2018 and the third quarter of 2017. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty gross written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 Three months ended September 30,  
 2018 2017  
 GWP % GWP % % Change
Property and transportation$953
 45% $1,073
 51% (11%)
Specialty casualty956
 46% 850
 40% 12%
Specialty financial195
 9% 181
 9% 8%
 $2,104
 100% $2,104
 100% %

Reinsurance Premiums Ceded
Reinsurance premiums ceded (“Ceded”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were 25%31% of gross written premiums for both the secondthird quarter of 2018 andcompared to 32% of gross written premiums for the secondthird quarter of 2017.2017, a decrease of 1 percentage point. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty reinsurance premiums ceded is shown below (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 Change in2018 2017 Change in
Ceded % of GWP Ceded % of GWP % of GWPCeded % of GWP Ceded % of GWP % of GWP
Property and transportation$(193) 31% $(180) 31% %$(393) 41% $(449) 42% (1%)
Specialty casualty(219) 26% (195) 26% %(261) 27% (226) 27% %
Specialty financial(33) 17% (25) 14% 3%(42) 22% (31) 17% 5%
Other specialty37
   27
    48
   35
    
$(408) 25% $(373) 25% %$(648) 31% $(671) 32% (1%)

Net Written Premiums
Net written premiums (“NWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $1.261.46 billion for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $1.131.43 billion for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $12723 million (11%2%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 Three months ended June 30,  
 2018 2017  
 NWP % NWP % % Change
Property and transportation$422
 33% $393
 35% 7%
Specialty casualty639
 51% 561
 50% 14%
Specialty financial159
 13% 149
 13% 7%
Other specialty37
 3% 27
 2% 37%
 $1,257
 100% $1,130
 100% 11%

Net Earned Premiums
Net earned premiums (“NEP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $1.16 billion for the second quarter of 2018 compared to $1.07 billion for the second quarter of 2017, an increase of $96 million (9%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net earned premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 Three months ended June 30,  
 2018 2017  
 NEP % NEP % % Change
Property and transportation$374
 32% $357
 34% 5%
Specialty casualty595
 51% 537
 50% 11%
Specialty financial159
 14% 146
 14% 9%
Other specialty33
 3% 25
 2% 32%
 $1,161
 100% $1,065
 100% 9%

The $162 million (11%) increase in gross written premiums for the second quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter of 2017 reflects growth in each of the Specialty property and casualty insurance sub-segments. Overall average renewal rates increased approximately 1% in the second quarter of 2018. Excluding the workers’ compensation business, renewal pricing increased approximately 3%.

Property and transportation Gross written premiums increased $42 million (7%) in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter of 2017. This increase was the result of new business opportunities in the property and inland marine business and higher premiums in the transportation businesses, which included a 5% average renewal rate increase in National Interstate’s business. Average renewal rates increased approximately 4% for this group in the second quarter of 2018. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums are comparable between periods.
 Three months ended September 30,  
 2018 2017  
 NWP % NWP % % Change
Property and transportation$560
 38% $624
 44% (10%)
Specialty casualty695
 48% 624
 44% 11%
Specialty financial153
 11% 150
 10% 2%
Other specialty48
 3% 35
 2% 37%
 $1,456
 100% $1,433
 100% 2%


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Net Earned Premiums
Net earned premiums (“NEP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $1.33 billion for the third quarter of 2018 compared to $1.27 billion for the third quarter of 2017, an increase of $60 million (5%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net earned premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 Three months ended September 30,  
 2018 2017  
 NEP % NEP % % Change
Property and transportation$526
 40% $527
 42% %
Specialty casualty616
 46% 568
 45% 8%
Specialty financial149
 11% 142
 11% 5%
Other specialty36
 3% 30
 2% 20%
 $1,327
 100% $1,267
 100% 5%

Gross written premiums were flat for the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017 reflecting growth in the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial sub-segments, offset by lower gross written premiums in the Property and transportation sub-segment. Overall average renewal rates increased approximately 2% in the third quarter of 2018. Excluding the workers’ compensation business, renewal pricing increased approximately 3%.

Property and transportation Gross written premiums decreased $120 million (11%) in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017. This decrease was largely the result of a change in the timing of two large policy renewals in one of the transportation businesses from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, as well as lower year-over-year premiums in the crop insurance business. Gross written premiums in the other businesses in this group grew by 6% in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017. Average renewal rates increased approximately 3% for this group in the third quarter of 2018. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums decreased 1 percentage point for the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017.

Specialty casualty Gross written premiums increased $102106 million (13%12%) in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017 due primarily to growth at Neon. Higher gross written premiums in the general liability, executive liabilityworkers’ compensation and excess and surplus lines businesses also contributed to the year-over-year growth, partially offset by lower gross written premiums in the workers’ compensation businesses.growth. Average renewal rates were flatincreased approximately 1% for this group in the secondthird quarter of 2018. Excluding rate decreases in the workers’ compensation businesses, renewal rates for this group increased approximately 3%2%. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums reflectwere comparable in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter of 2017 reflecting higher cessions to AFG’s internal reinsurance program, which is included in Other specialty and higher cessions in the workers’ compensation businesses, offset by lower cessions at Neon.reinstatement premiums resulting from reinsured hurricane losses in the 2018 period compared to the 2017 period.

Specialty financial Gross written premiums increased $1814 million (10%8%) in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017 due primarily to higher premiums in the financial institutions business. Average renewal rates for this group increased approximately 5%6% in the secondthird quarter of 2018. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums increased 35 percentage points for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017, reflecting higher cessions in the financial institutions and equipment leasing businesses.businesses and the impact of reinstatement premiums in the third quarter of 2018 resulting from a reinsured loss in the fidelity business.

Other specialty The amounts shown as reinsurance premiums ceded represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty property and casualty insurance sub-segments. Reinsurance premiums assumed increased $10$13 million (37%) in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017, reflecting an increase in premiums retained, primarily from businesses in the Specialty casualty sub-segment.

Combined Ratio
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of the combined ratio for AFG’s property and casualty segment:
 Three months ended June 30,   Three months ended June 30,
 2018 2017 Change 2018 2017
Property and transportation         
Loss and LAE ratio63.8% 64.9% (1.1%)    
Underwriting expense ratio30.1% 29.3% 0.8%    
Combined ratio93.9% 94.2% (0.3%)    
Underwriting profit      $23
 $21
          
Specialty casualty         
Loss and LAE ratio63.4% 63.1% 0.3%    
Underwriting expense ratio31.7% 31.6% 0.1%    
Combined ratio95.1% 94.7% 0.4%    
Underwriting profit      $29
 $29
          
Specialty financial         
Loss and LAE ratio33.9% 33.1% 0.8%    
Underwriting expense ratio51.7% 51.3% 0.4%    
Combined ratio85.6% 84.4% 1.2%    
Underwriting profit      $22
 $23
          
Total Specialty         
Loss and LAE ratio59.7% 59.5% 0.2%    
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.7% 0.3%    
Combined ratio93.7% 93.2% 0.5%    
Underwriting profit      $73
 $73
          
Aggregate — including exited lines         
Loss and LAE ratio59.7% 59.7% %    
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.7% 0.3%    
Combined ratio93.7% 93.4% 0.3%    
Underwriting profit      $72
 $72


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Combined Ratio
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of the combined ratio for AFG’s property and casualty segment:
 Three months ended September 30,   Three months ended September 30,
 2018 2017 Change 2018 2017
Property and transportation         
Loss and LAE ratio77.1% 77.3% (0.2%)    
Underwriting expense ratio22.9% 21.6% 1.3%    
Combined ratio100.0% 98.9% 1.1%    
Underwriting profit (loss)      $
 $6
          
Specialty casualty         
Loss and LAE ratio59.2% 70.7% (11.5%)    
Underwriting expense ratio32.9% 28.8% 4.1%    
Combined ratio92.1% 99.5% (7.4%)    
Underwriting profit      $49
 $2
          
Specialty financial         
Loss and LAE ratio40.1% 56.0% (15.9%)    
Underwriting expense ratio54.3% 46.2% 8.1%    
Combined ratio94.4% 102.2% (7.8%)    
Underwriting profit (loss)      $9
 $(3)
          
Total Specialty         
Loss and LAE ratio64.3% 71.4% (7.1%)    
Underwriting expense ratio31.4% 27.9% 3.5%    
Combined ratio95.7% 99.3% (3.6%)    
Underwriting profit      $55
 $9
          
Aggregate — including exited lines         
Loss and LAE ratio65.8% 78.5% (12.7%)    
Underwriting expense ratio31.4% 27.9% 3.5%    
Combined ratio97.2% 106.4% (9.2%)    
Underwriting profit (loss)      $38
 $(81)

The Specialty property and casualty insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $7355 million in both the secondthird quarter of 2018 andcompared to $9 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, reflecting strong results in both periods. Higheran increase of $46 million (511%). The higher underwriting profit in the Property and transportation sub-segment was offset by lowerthird quarter of 2018 reflects higher underwriting profits in the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial sub-segment.sub-segments due primarily to significantly lower catastrophe losses. Overall catastrophe losses were $35 million (2.6 points on the combined ratio) for the third quarter of 2018 compared to $107 million (8.4 points) for the third quarter of 2017. In connection with catastrophe losses incurred in the third quarter of 2018, AFG paid $3 million in net reinstatement premiums, resulting in a total pretax loss from catastrophes of $38 million for the quarter. In connection with catastrophe losses incurred in the third quarter of 2017, AFG reduced profit-based commissions payable to agents by $8 million in the Specialty financial sub-segment and paid $6 million in net reinstatement premiums, resulting in a total pretax loss from catastrophes of $105 million for the quarter.

Property and transportation Underwriting profit for thisThis group was $23reported an underwriting loss of less than $1 million for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $21an underwriting profit of $6 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increasea decrease of $2$6 million (10%(100%). These results include higher year-over-yearImproved underwriting profits in the transportation businesses and improved results in the ocean marine operations and higher underwriting profit at National Interstate were offset by lower underwriting profitability in several other businesses in this group. Catastrophe losses were $12 million (2.3 points on the propertycombined ratio) and inland marinereinstatement premiums paid were $1 million for the third quarter of 2018 compared to catastrophe losses of $23 million (4.4 points) and equine businesses.related reinstatement premiums of $2 million for the third quarter of 2017.

Specialty casualty Underwriting profit for this group was $2949 million for both the secondthird quarter of 2018 andcompared to $2 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017. Higher underwriting2017, an increase of $47 million (2,350%), reflecting lower catastrophe losses at Neon and higher profitability in the targeted markets businesses was offset by lower profitability inexecutive liability business. Catastrophe losses were $11 million (1.7 points on the excesscombined ratio) and surplus lines businesses.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


reinstatement premiums paid were $1 million for the third quarter of 2018 compared to catastrophe losses of $54 million (9.5 points) and related reinstatement premiums of $2 million for the third quarter of 2017.

Specialty financial UnderwritingThis group reported an underwriting profit for this group wasof $229 million for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $23an underwriting loss of $3 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, a decreasean improvement of $1$12 million (4%(400%). Lower underwriting profitsyear-over-year catastrophe losses in the fidelity and surety businesses were offset by higher underwriting profits inlender-placed mortgage property book within the financial institutions business.business and higher underwriting profit in the surety business contributed to these improved results. Catastrophe losses were $12 million (8.0 points on the combined ratio) for the third quarter of 2018 compared to $29 million (20.4 points) for the third quarter of 2017. In connection with catastrophe losses incurred in the third quarter of 2018, the Specialty financial sub-segment paid $1 million in reinstatement premiums compared to a reduction of profit-based commissions payable to agents of $8 million and reinstatement premiums of $2 million in the third quarter of 2017.

Other specialty This group reported an underwriting loss of $1$3 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to an underwriting profit of less than $1$4 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017. This decrease is due primarily to losses in the third quarter of 2018 in the business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments compared to earnings in the third quarter of 2017.

Aggregate As discussed below in more detail under “Net prior year reserve development,” AFG recorded special charges to increase property and casualty A&E reserves by $18 million in the third quarter of 2018 and $89 million in the third quarter of 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
AFG’s overall loss and LAE ratio was 59.7%65.8% for both the secondthird quarter of 2018 andcompared to 78.5% for the secondthird quarter of 2017., a decrease of 12.7 percentage points. The components of AFG’s property and casualty losses and LAE amounts and ratio are detailed below (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
Amount Ratio Change inAmount Ratio Change in
2018 2017 2018 2017 Ratio2018 2017 2018 2017 Ratio
Property and transportation                  
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$250
 $232
 66.7% 65.0% 1.7%$398
 $392
 75.6% 74.4% 1.2%
Prior accident years development(21) (11) (5.6%) (3.1%) (2.5%)(4) (8) (0.8%) (1.5%) 0.7%
Current year catastrophe losses10
 11
 2.7% 3.0% (0.3%)12
 23
 2.3% 4.4% (2.1%)
Property and transportation losses and LAE and ratio$239
 $232
 63.8% 64.9% (1.1%)$406
 $407
 77.1% 77.3% (0.2%)
                  
Specialty casualty                  
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$392
 $342
 65.8% 63.6% 2.2%$390
 $371
 63.5% 65.2% (1.7%)
Prior accident years development(15) (5) (2.5%) (0.9%) (1.6%)(37) (23) (6.0%) (4.0%) (2.0%)
Current year catastrophe losses1
 2
 0.1% 0.4% (0.3%)11
 54
 1.7% 9.5% (7.8%)
Specialty casualty losses and LAE and ratio$378
 $339
 63.4% 63.1% 0.3%$364
 $402
 59.2% 70.7% (11.5%)
                  
Specialty financial                  
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$59
 $52
 37.3% 35.2% 2.1%$56
 $55
 37.2% 38.7% (1.5%)
Prior accident years development(8) (8) (5.4%) (5.4%) %(8) (5) (5.1%) (3.1%) (2.0%)
Current year catastrophe losses3
 5
 2.0% 3.3% (1.3%)12
 29
 8.0% 20.4% (12.4%)
Specialty financial losses and LAE and ratio$54
 $49
 33.9% 33.1% 0.8%$60
 $79
 40.1% 56.0% (15.9%)
                  
Total Specialty                  
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$721
 $639
 62.2% 60.0% 2.2%$869
 $836
 65.4% 65.9% (0.5%)
Prior accident years development(45) (23) (3.9%) (2.2%) (1.7%)(49) (38) (3.7%) (2.9%) (0.8%)
Current year catastrophe losses16
 18
 1.4% 1.7% (0.3%)35
 107
 2.6% 8.4% (5.8%)
Total Specialty losses and LAE and ratio$692
 $634
 59.7% 59.5% 0.2%$855
 $905
 64.3% 71.4% (7.1%)
                  
Aggregate — including exited lines                  
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$721
 $639
 62.2% 60.0% 2.2%$868
 $836
 65.4% 65.9% (0.5%)
Prior accident years development(44) (22) (3.9%) (2.0%) (1.9%)(31) 52
 (2.2%) 4.2% (6.4%)
Current year catastrophe losses16
 18
 1.4% 1.7% (0.3%)35
 107
 2.6% 8.4% (5.8%)
Aggregate losses and LAE and ratio$693
 $635
 59.7% 59.7% %$872
 $995
 65.8% 78.5% (12.7%)

Current accident year losses and LAE, excluding catastrophe losses
The current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophe losses for AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations was 62.2%65.4% for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to 60.0%65.9% for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increasea decrease of 2.20.5 percentage points.

Property and transportation   The 1.71.2 percentage point increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects an increase in the loss and LAE ratio in the propertyequine and inland marineaviation businesses and equine businesses for the secondSingapore branch in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017.

Specialty casualty   The 2.21.7 percentage point increasedecrease in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects a decrease in the loss and LAE ratio in the executive liability business and at Neon, partially offset by an increase in the loss and LAE ratio in the excess and surplus, workers’ compensation and targeted markets businesses.business.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Specialty financial The 2.11.5 percentage point increasedecrease in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects an increasea decrease in the loss and LAE ratio of the financial institutions and trade credit businesses.business.

Net prior year reserve development
AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations recorded net favorable reserve development related to prior accident years of $4549 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $23$38 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $22$11 million (96%(29%).

Property and transportation Net favorable reserve development of $214 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 reflects lower than expected claims severity at National Interstate, lower than expected losses in the crop business and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the transportation businesses.property and inland marine business, partially offset by higher than expected losses in the Singapore branch and aviation operations. Net favorable reserve development of $11$8 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the transportation businesses and lower than expected losses in the crop and equine businesses and lower than expected claim severity in the property and inland marine businesses, partially offset by higher than expected claim severity in the ocean marine business.businesses.

Specialty casualty Net favorable reserve development of $15$37 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 includesreflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses, and to a lesser extent, lower than expected claim severity in the targeted markets and executive liability businesses. This was partially offset by higher than expected claim frequency and severity in workers’ compensation business.the excess and surplus lines. Net favorable reserve development of $5$23 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses and at Neon, partially offset by higher than anticipated claim severity in the targeted markets and general liability businesses.business.

Specialty financial Net favorable reserve development of $8 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 reflects lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business and lower than anticipated claim severity in the financial institutionsfidelity business. Net favorable reserve development of $8$5 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the fidelity business and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business.trade credit businesses.

Other specialty In addition to the development discussed above, total Specialty prior year reserve development includes net favorable reserve development of $1$2 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and net adverse reserve development of $1 million in the second quarter of 2017, reflecting amortization of the deferred gains on the retroactive reinsurance transactions entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998 and 2001 and2001. In addition, the third quarter of 2018 includes $2 million of adverse reserve development associated with AFG’s internal reinsurance program.

Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges During the third quarter of 2018, AFG completed an in-depth internal review of its asbestos and environmental exposures relating to the run-off operations of its property and casualty insurance segment and its exposures related to former railroad and manufacturing operations and sites. In addition to its ongoing internal monitoring of asbestos and environmental exposures, AFG has periodically conducted comprehensive external studies of its asbestos and environmental reserves with the aid of specialty actuarial, engineering and consulting firms and outside counsel, every two years in recent periods, with an in-depth internal review during the intervening years. AFG is currently evaluating the frequency of future external studies.
As a result of the 2018 internal review, AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment recorded an $18 million pretax special charge to increase its asbestos reserves by $6 million (net of reinsurance) and its environmental reserves by $12 million (net of reinsurance). Over the past few years, the focus of AFG’s asbestos claims litigation has shifted to smaller companies and companies with ancillary exposures. AFG’s insureds with these exposures have been the driver of the property and casualty segment’s asbestos reserve increases in recent years. AFG is seeing modestly increasing estimates for indemnity and defense compared to prior studies on certain specific open claims.

The increase in property and casualty environmental reserves was primarily associated with updated estimates of site investigation and remedial costs with respect to existing sites and newly identified sites. AFG has updated its view of legal defense costs on open environmental claims as well as a number of claims and sites where the estimated investigation and remediation costs have increased. As in past years, there were no new or emerging broad industry trends that were identified in this review.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


At September 30, 2018, the property and casualty insurance segment’s insurance reserves include A&E reserves of $398 million, net of reinsurance recoverables. At September 30, 2018, the property and casualty insurance segment’s three-year survival ratios compare favorably with industry survival ratios published by S&P Global Market Intelligence (as of December 31, 2017) as detailed in the following table:
 Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves
 Three-Year Survival Ratio (% Times Paid Losses)
 Asbestos Environmental Total A&E
AFG (9/30/2018)19.0
 11.4
 15.0
Industry (12/31/2017)6.7
 6.7
 6.7

In addition, the 2018 internal review encompassed reserves for asbestos and environmental exposures of AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations. For a discussion of the $9 million pretax special charge recorded for those operations, see “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated,” for the quarters ended September 30, 2018 and 2017.

A comprehensive external study of AFG’s A&E reserves was completed in the third quarter of 2017 with the aid of specialty actuarial, engineering and consulting firms and outside council. As a result of the study, AFG recorded an $89 million (net of reinsurance) pretax special charge to increase its property and casualty insurance segment’s A&E reserves and a $24 million special charge to increase the reserves of its former railroad and manufacturing operations. See Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Uncertainties — Asbestos and Environmental-related (“A&E”) Insurance Reserves” and Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated” in AFG’s 2017 Form 10-K.

Aggregate Aggregate net prior accident years reserve development for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment includes the special A&E charges mentioned above and net adverse reserve development of $1 million in both the second quartersthird quarter of 2018 and 2017 related to business outside of the Specialty insurance group that AFG no longer writes.

Catastrophe losses
AFG generally seeks to reduce its exposure to catastrophes through individual risk selection, including minimizing coastal and known fault-line exposures, and the purchase of reinsurance. Based on data available at December 31, 2017, AFG’s exposure to a catastrophic earthquake or windstorm that industry models indicate should statistically occur once in every 100, 250 or 500 years as a percentage of AFG’s Shareholders’ Equity is shown below:
   Impact of modeled loss on AFG’s 
 Industry Model Shareholders’ Equity 
 100-year event Less than 1% 
 250-year event Less than 2% 
 500-year event Less than 4% 

AFG maintains comprehensive catastrophe reinsurance coverage, including a $15 million per occurrence net retention for its U.S.-based property and casualty insurance operations for losses up to $100 million and a separate $15 million per occurrence retention for Neon for losses up to $200 million ($225 million for U.S. catastrophe events). AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations further maintain supplemental fully collateralized reinsurance coverage up to 95% of $200 million for catastrophe losses in excess of $100$104 million of traditional catastrophe reinsurance through a catastrophe bond.

Catastrophe losses of $16$35 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 resulted primarily from storms and flooding in several regions of the United States.Hurricane Florence. Catastrophe losses of $18$107 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017 resulted primarily from stormsHurricanes Harvey, Irma and tornadoesMaria and two earthquakes in several regions of the United States.Mexico.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Commissions and Other Underwriting Expenses
AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses (“U/W Exp”) were $396$417 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $358$353 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $3864 million (11%(18%). AFG’s underwriting expense ratio, calculated as commissions and other underwriting expenses divided by net premiums earned, was 34.0%31.4% for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to 33.7%27.9% for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of 0.33.5 percentage points. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses and underwriting expense ratios is shown below (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 Change in2018 2017 Change in
U/W Exp % of NEP U/W Exp % of NEP % of NEPU/W Exp % of NEP U/W Exp % of NEP % of NEP
Property and transportation$112
 30.1% $104
 29.3% 0.8%$120
 22.9% $114
 21.6% 1.3%
Specialty casualty188
 31.7% 169
 31.6% 0.1%203
 32.9% 164
 28.8% 4.1%
Specialty financial83
 51.7% 74
 51.3% 0.4%80
 54.3% 66
 46.2% 8.1%
Other specialty13
 36.8% 11
 36.3% 0.5%14
 37.5% 9
 32.5% 5.0%
$396
 34.0% $358
 33.7% 0.3%$417
 31.4% $353
 27.9% 3.5%

Property and transportation   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 0.81.3 percentage points in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017, reflecting a changelower premiums in the mix of business.crop business, which has a lower expense ratio than AFG’s overall Property and transportation group and an increase in the expense ratio in the transportation businesses.

Specialty casualty   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 0.14.1 percentage points in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017, reflecting growth at Neon, which has a higher expense ratio than AFG’s overall Specialty casualty group.group, higher dividends paid to policyholders in the workers’ compensation businesses and higher commissions in the targeted markets businesses.

Specialty financial   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 0.48.1 percentage points in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017, reflecting higher ceding commissions and higher profitability-based commissions paid to agents in the financial institutions business.business compared to the third quarter of 2017, which included an $8 million commission expense reduction due to hurricane losses in the period.

Property and Casualty Net Investment Income
Net investment income in AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations was $115$108 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $9694 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $1914 million (20%15%). The average invested assets and overall yield earned on investments held by AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations are provided below (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,    Three months ended September 30,    
2018 2017 Change % Change2018 2017 Change % Change
Net investment income$115
 $96
 $19
 20%$108
 $94
 $14
 15%
    

      

  
Average invested assets (at amortized cost)$10,346
 $9,947
 $399
 4%$10,388
 $9,851
 $537
 5%
    

      

  
Yield (net investment income as a % of average invested assets)4.45% 3.86% 0.59% 

4.16% 3.82% 0.34% 

              
Tax equivalent yield (*)4.62% 4.32% 0.30%  4.34% 4.26% 0.08%  
(*)   Adjusts the yield on equity securities and tax-exempt bonds to the fully taxable equivalent yield.

The property and casualty insurance segment’s increase in net investment income for the secondthird quarter of 2018 as compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017 reflects growth in the property and casualty insurance segment and very strong earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments. The property and casualty insurance segment’s overall yield on investments (net investment income as a percentage of average invested assets) was 4.45%4.16% for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to 3.86%3.82% for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of 0.590.34 percentage points, due primarily to the higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments. The high returns from limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Property and Casualty Other Income and Expenses, Net
Other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations was a net expense of $9$7 million for both the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $5 million inand the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $4 million (80%).2017. The table below details the items included in other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations (in millions):
Three months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Other income      
Income from the sale of real estate$
 $3
$
 $
Other2
 1
4
 1
Total other income2
 4
4
 1
Other expenses      
Amortization of intangibles2
 2
3
 2
Other9
 7
8
 6
Total other expenses11
 9
11
 8
Other income and expenses, net$(9) $(5)$(7) $(7)


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Annuity Segment — Results of Operations
AFG’s annuity operations contributed $99$117 million in pretax earnings in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $85$102 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $14$15 million (16%(15%). AFG’s annuity segment results for the secondthird quarter of 2018 as compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017 reflect a 10% increase in average annuity investments (at amortized cost), and higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments, and the favorable impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (“FIAs”), partially offset by an unlocking charge in the second quarter of 2018 and the impact of lower investment yields due to the run-off of higher yielding investments. The high returns on limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods. The fair valueWhile both periods reflect the positive impact of derivatives related to FIAs was favorably impacted by higher than anticipated interest rates in the second quarter of 2018 compared tostrong stock market performance and the negative impact of lower than anticipated interest rates on the fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (“FIAs”), strong stock market performance in the secondthird quarter of 2018 had a significantly higher favorable impact than the stock market increase in the 2017 period and the decrease in interest rates in the third quarter of 2017 partially offsethad a significantly larger unfavorable impact in the 2017 period compared to the lower than anticipated interest rates on the 2018 periodperiod. The favorable impact of interest rates between periods was partially offset by the negative impactsimpact of higher interest on the embedded derivative (from growth in the FIA business and higher interest rates) and higher than expected option costs. AFG monitors the major actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations throughout the year and conducts detailed reviews (“unlocking”) of its assumptions in the fourth quarter of each year. If changes in2018 period compared to the economic environment of actual experience would cause material revisions to future estimates, these assumptions are updated (unlocked) in an interim quarter. Due to continued higher FIA option costs (resulting primarily from higher than expected risk-free rates), AFG unlocked its assumptions for option costs and interest rates in the second quarter of 2018, resulting in a net charge to earnings of $27 million.2017 period.

The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its annuity operations for the three months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Revenues:          
Net investment income$412
 $360
 14%$413
 $375
 10%
Other income:          
Guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees16
 14
 14%16
 15
 7%
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income11
 12
 (8%)11
 11
 %
Total revenues439
 386
 14%440
 401
 10%
          
Costs and Expenses:          
Annuity benefits (*)260
 224
 16%222
 215
 3%
Acquisition expenses49
 47
 4%69
 54
 28%
Other expenses31
 30
 3%32
 30
 7%
Total costs and expenses340
 301
 13%323
 299
 8%
Earnings before income taxes$99
 $85
 16%$117
 $102
 15%
Detail of annuity earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Earnings before income taxes — before the impact of unlocking and derivatives related to FIAs$123
 $101
 22%
Unlocking(27) 
 %
Earnings before income taxes — before the impact of derivatives related to FIAs$119
 $106
 12%
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs3
 (16) (119%)(2) (4) (50%)
Earnings before income taxes$99
 $85
 16%$117
 $102
 15%

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


(*)Annuity benefits consisted of the following (dollars in millions):
 Three months ended June 30,  
 2018 2017 % Change
Interest credited — fixed$173
 $157
 10%
Interest credited — fixed component of variable annuities2
 2
 %
Other annuity benefits:     
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve4
 4
 %
Amortization of sales inducements5
 4
 25%
Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve19
 17
 12%
Change in other benefit reserves11
 9
 22%
Total other annuity benefits39
 34
 15%
Total before impact of derivatives related to FIAs and unlocking214
 193
 11%
Derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:     
Embedded derivative mark-to-market82
 112
 (27%)
Equity option mark-to-market(90) (81) 11%
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs(8) 31
 (126%)
Unlocking54
 
 %
Total annuity benefits$260
 $224
 16%

See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity benefit expense in the second quarter of 2018.
 Three months ended September 30,  
 2018 2017 % Change
Interest credited — fixed$179
 $160
 12%
Interest credited — fixed component of variable annuities1
 1
 %
Other annuity benefits:     
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve5
 5
 %
Amortization of sales inducements5
 4
 25%
Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve18
 18
 %
Change in other benefit reserves10
 16
 (38%)
Total other annuity benefits38
 43
 (12%)
Total before impact of derivatives related to FIAs218
 204
 7%
Derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:     
Embedded derivative mark-to-market223
 127
 76%
Equity option mark-to-market(219) (116) 89%
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs4
 11
 (64%)
Total annuity benefits$222
 $215
 3%

The profitability of a fixed annuity business is largely dependent on the ability of a company to earn income on the assets supporting the business in excess of the amounts credited to policyholder accounts plus expenses incurred (earning a “spread”). Performance measures such as net interest spread and net spread earned are often presented by annuity businesses to help users of their financial statements better understand the company’s performance.

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities (excludes variable annuity earnings)
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of these spreads for AFG’s fixed annuity operations (including fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost)$33,935
 $30,988
 10%$34,955
 $31,713
 10%
Average fixed annuity benefits accumulated34,165
 31,212
 9%35,226
 32,029
 10%
          
As % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (except as noted):

 

  

 

  
Net investment income (as % of fixed annuity investments)4.83% 4.62%  4.70% 4.70%  
Interest credited — fixed(2.02%) (2.01%)  (2.03%) (2.01%)  
Net interest spread2.81% 2.61%  2.67% 2.69%  
          
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income0.10% 0.12%  0.09% 0.10%  
Other annuity benefit expenses, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees(0.27%) (0.27%)  (0.24%) (0.33%)  
Acquisition expenses(0.89%) (0.58%)  (0.76%) (0.65%)  
Other expenses(0.35%) (0.38%)  (0.36%) (0.36%)  
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities0.10% (0.39%)  (0.05%) (0.14%)  
Unlocking(0.32%) %  
Net spread earned on fixed annuities1.18% 1.11%  1.35% 1.31%  


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s net spread earned on fixed annuities:
Three months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Net spread earned on fixed annuities — before the impact of unlocking and derivatives related to FIAs1.46% 1.32%
Unlocking(0.32%) %
Net spread earned on fixed annuities — before the impact of derivatives related to FIAs1.37% 1.36%
Impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:      
Change in fair value of derivatives0.10% (0.39%)(0.05%) (0.14%)
Related impact on amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs (*)(0.06%) 0.18%0.03% 0.09%
Related impact on amortization of deferred sales inducements (*)% %% %
Net spread earned on fixed annuities1.18% 1.11%1.35% 1.31%
(*)An estimate of the related acceleration/deceleration of the amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and deferred sales inducements.

Annuity Net Investment Income
Net investment income for the secondthird quarter of 2018 was $412$413 million compared to $360$375 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $52$38 million (14%(10%). This increase reflects the growth in AFG’s annuity business and higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments, partially offset by the impact of lower investment yields. The overall yield earned on investments in AFG’s fixed annuity operations, calculated as net investment income divided by average investment balances (at amortized cost), increased by 0.21 percentage points to 4.83% from 4.62%was 4.70% in both the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared toand the secondthird quarter of 2017. This increase inThe net investment yield between periods reflects higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments, partially offset by (i) the investment of new premium dollars at lower yields as compared to the existing investment portfolio and (ii) the impact of the reinvestment of proceeds from maturity and redemption of higher yielding investments at the lower yields available in the financial markets. DuringThe high returns from limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods. For the period from July 1, 2017, $4.9through September 30, 2018, $4.4 billion in annuity segment investments with an average yield of 5.14%5.01% were redeemed or sold while the investments purchased during 2017that period (with new premium dollars and the redemption/sale proceeds) had an average yield at purchase of 3.94%4.26%.

Annuity Interest Credited — Fixed
Interest credited — fixed for the secondthird quarter of 2018 was $173179 million compared to $157160 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $1619 million (10%12%). This increase reflects the impact of growth in the annuity business. The average interest rate credited to policyholders, calculated as interest credited divided by average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, increased 0.010.02 percentage points to 2.02%2.03% in the secondthird quarter of 2018 from 2.01% in the secondthird quarter of 2017.2017 due to higher crediting rates on new business.

Annuity Net Interest Spread
AFG’s net interest spread increaseddecreased 0.200.02 percentage points to 2.81%2.67% from 2.61%2.69% in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 due primarily to higher crediting rates on new business and lower investment yields, partially offset by higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments, partially offset by lower investment yields.investments. Features included in current annuity product offerings allow AFG to achieve its desired profitability at a lower net interest spread than historical product offerings. As a result, AFG expects its net interest spread to narrow in the future.

Annuity Policy Charges and Other Miscellaneous Income
Annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income, which consist primarily of surrender charges, amortization of deferred upfront policy charges (unearned revenue) and income from sales of real estate were $11 million for the second quarter of 2018 compared to $12 million for the second quarter of 2017, a decrease of $1 million (8%). Excluding the impact of a $1 million unlocking charge related to unearned revenue in the second quarter of 2018, annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income were $12 million for both the secondthird quarter of 2018 and the secondthird quarter of 2017. Excluding the impact of unlocking charges related to unearned revenue, annuityAnnuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, decreased 0.020.01 percentage points to 0.10%0.09% from 0.12%0.10% in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017.

See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Other Annuity Benefits, Net of Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefit Fees
Other annuity benefits, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees, (excluding the impact of unlocking), for the secondthird quarter of 2018 were $23$22 million compared to $20$28 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increasea decrease of $3$6 million (15%(21%). As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these net expenses were 0.27%decreased 0.09 percentage points to 0.24% from 0.33% in both the secondthird quarter of 2018 andcompared to the secondthird quarter of 2017. In addition to interest credited to policyholders’ accounts and the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, annuity benefits expense also includes the following expenses (in millions, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees):
Three months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve$4
 $4
$5
 $5
Amortization of sales inducements5
 4
5
 4
Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve19
 17
18
 18
Change in other benefit reserves11
 9
10
 16
Other annuity benefits39
 34
38
 43
Offset guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees(16) (14)(16) (15)
Other annuity benefits, net$23
 $20
$22
 $28

As discussed under “Annuity Benefits Accumulated” in Note A — “Accounting Policiesto the financial statements, guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserves are accrued for and modified using assumptions similar to those used in establishing and amortizing deferred policy acquisition costs. The guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve related to FIAs can be inversely impacted by the calculated FIA embedded derivative reserve as the value to policyholders of the guaranteed withdrawal benefits decreases when the benefit of stock market participation increases.

See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity benefits expense in the second quarter of 2018.

Annuity Acquisition Expenses
Annuity acquisition expenses for the secondthird quarter of 2018 were $49$69 million compared to $47$54 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $2$15 million (4%(28%). Excluding the $28 million favorable impact on amortization of DPAC from the unlocking recorded, reflecting growth in the second quarter of 2018, annuity acquisition expenses were $77 million for the second quarter of 2018, an increase of $30 million (64%) compared to the second quarter of 2017, reflectingbusiness and the acceleration/deceleration of DPAC amortization related toof deferred policy acquisition costs (“DPAC”) as a result of changes in the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs and growth in the business. Excluding the impact of the 2018 unlocking charge,FIAs. AFG’s amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs (“DPAC”)DPAC and commission expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated was 0.89%0.76% for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to 0.58%0.65% for the secondthird quarter of 2017 and has generally ranged between 0.75% and 0.85%. Variances from the general range relate primarily to the impact of (i) material changes in interest rates or the stock market on AFG’s fixed-indexed annuity business, and (ii) differences in actual experience from actuarially projected estimates and assumptions. For example, the positivefavorable impact of higher than anticipated interest ratesstrong stock market performance during the secondthird quarter of 2018 on the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs (discussed below) resulted in a partially offsetting acceleration of the amortization of DPAC. In contrast, the negative impact of lower than anticipated interest rates during the second quarter of 2017 on the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs resulted in a partially offsetting decelerationacceleration of the amortization of DPAC.

The table below illustrates the estimated impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on annuity acquisition expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated (excluding the impact of unlocking):
Three months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Before the impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs on the amortization of DPAC0.83% 0.76%0.79% 0.74%
Impact of changes in fair value of derivatives related to FIAs on amortization of DPAC (*)0.06% (0.18%)(0.03%) (0.09%)
Annuity acquisition expenses as a % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated0.89% 0.58%0.76% 0.65%
(*)An estimate of the acceleration/deceleration of the amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs resulting from fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses in the second quarter of 2018. Unanticipated spread compression, decreases in the stock market, adverse mortality experience, and higher than expected lapse rates could lead to future write-offs of DPAC or the present value of future profits on business in force of companies acquired (“PVFP”).

Annuity Other Expenses
Annuity other expenses were $31$32 million for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $30 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $1$2 million (3%(7%). Annuity other expenses represent primarily general and administrative expenses, as well as selling and issuance expenses that are not deferred. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these expenses were 0.35%0.36% for both the secondthird quarter of 2018 and 0.38% for the secondthird quarter of 2017. This decrease in annuity other expenses as a percentage

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Table of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated is due primarily to growth in the business.Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Change in Fair Value of Derivatives Related to Fixed-Indexed (Including Variable-Indexed) Annuities
AFG’s fixed-indexed (including variable-indexed) annuities provide policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market or other financial index. AFG attempts to mitigate the risk in the index-based component of these products through the purchase and sale of call and put options on the appropriate index. AFG’s strategy is designed so that the net change in the fair value of the call option assets and put option liabilities will generally offset the economic change in the net liability from the index participation. Both the index-based component of the annuities (an embedded derivative) and the related call and put options are considered derivatives that must be adjusted for changes in fair value through earnings each period. The change in the fair value of the embedded derivative includes an ongoing expense for interest accreted on the embedded derivative. The interest accreted in any period is generally based on the size of the embedded derivative and current interest rates. The fair values of these derivatives are impacted by actual and expected stock market performance and interest rates as well as other factors. For a list of other factors impacting the fair value of the index-basedembedded derivative component (embedded derivative) of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated, see Note C — “Fair Value Measurementsto the financial statements.

Excluding the impact of the 2018 unlocking charge, theThe net change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities decreasedincreased annuity benefits by $84 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and increased annuity benefits by $31compared to $11 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017. During the second quarter of 2018, the positive impact of higher than expected interest rates and strong market performance onThe change in the fair value of these derivatives was partially offset byincludes $18 million in the negativethird quarter of 2018 and $8 million in the third quarter of 2017 in interest accreted on the embedded derivative (before DPAC amortization), an increase of $10 million (125%). AFG expects both the size of the embedded derivative and interest rates to rise, resulting in continued increases in interest on the embedded derivative. During the third quarter of 2018, the impact of higher than expected option costs. Duringinterest on the second quarter of 2017,embedded derivative was offset by the positive impact of strong stock market performance on the fair value of these derivatives was more than offset bythe derivatives. During the third quarter of 2017, the negative impact of lower than expectedanticipated interest rates.rates on the fair value of these derivatives was partially offset by the positive impact of strong stock market performance. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, this net expense improved 0.49decreased 0.09 percentage points to a net expense reduction of 0.10%0.05% in the secondthird quarter of 2018 from a net expense of 0.39%0.14% in the secondthird quarter of 2017.

Fluctuations in interest rates and the stock market, among other factors, can cause volatility in the periodic measurement of fair value of the embedded derivative that management believes can be inconsistent with the long-term economics of these products. The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Earnings before income taxes — before unlocking and change in fair value of derivatives related to FIAs$123
 $101
 22%
Unlocking(27) 
 %
Earnings before income taxes — before change in fair value of derivatives related to FIAs$119
 $106
 12%
Impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:          
Change in fair value of derivatives related to FIAs8
 (31) (126%)(4) (11) (64%)
Related impact on amortization of DPAC (*)(5) 15
 (133%)2
 7
 (71%)
Earnings before income taxes$99
 $85
 16%$117
 $102
 15%

(*)An estimate of the related acceleration/deceleration of the amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

As illustrated in the table above, the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, including the related impact on amortization of DPAC, increaseddecreased the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes by $3$2 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and decreased the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes by $16$4 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The following table provides analysis of the primary factors impacting the change in the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs. Each factor is presented net of the estimated related impact on amortization of DPAC (dollars in millions).
 Three months ended June 30,  
 2018 2017 % Change
Interest on the embedded derivative liability$(8) $(4) 100%
Changes in interest rates higher (lower) than expected12
 (17) (171%)
Change in the stock market, including volatility6
 5
 20%
Renewal option costs lower (higher) than expected(3) 1
 (400%)
Other, including the impact of actual versus expected lapses(4) (1) 300%
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs$3
 $(16) (119%)

See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on the change in the fair value of the embedded derivative liability in the second quarter of 2018.
 Three months ended September 30,  
 2018 2017 % Change
Interest on the embedded derivative liability$(10) $(4) 150%
Changes in interest rates higher (lower) than expected(2) (10) (80%)
Change in the stock market, including volatility12
 6
 100%
Renewal option costs lower (higher) than expected
 1
 (100%)
Other, including the impact of actual versus expected lapses(2) 3
 (167%)
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs$(2) $(4) (50%)

Annuity Net Spread Earned on Fixed Annuities
AFG’s net spread earned on fixed annuities increased 0.070.04 percentage points to 1.18%1.35% from 1.11%1.31% in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 due primarily to the net impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives and related DPAC amortization offset discussed above, andpartially offset by the 0.200.02 percentage points increasedecrease in AFG’s net interest spread, partially offset by the unlocking of actuarial assumptions discussed below.spread.

Annuity Benefits Accumulated
Annuity premiums received and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in annuity benefits accumulated rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited and other benefits are charged to expense and decreases for surrender and other policy charges are credited to other income.

For certain products, annuity benefits accumulated also includes reserves for accrued persistency and premium bonuses, excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations (“EDAR”) and guaranteed withdrawal benefits. Annuity benefits accumulated also includes amounts advanced from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati. The following table is a progression of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated liability for the three months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (in millions):
Three months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Beginning fixed annuity reserves$33,652
 $30,719
$34,678
 $31,704
Fixed annuity premiums (receipts)1,393
 1,258
1,372
 869
Surrenders, benefits and other withdrawals(706) (571)(707) (540)
Interest and other annuity benefit expenses:      
Interest credited173
 157
179
 160
Embedded derivative mark-to-market82
 112
223
 127
Change in other benefit reserves29
 29
29
 34
Unlocking55
 
Ending fixed annuity reserves$34,678
 $31,704
$35,774
 $32,354
      
Reconciliation to annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet:      
Ending fixed annuity reserves (from above)$34,678
 $31,704
$35,774
 $32,354
Impact of unrealized investment related gains32
 128
8
 138
Fixed component of variable annuities176
 182
176
 179
Annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet$34,886
 $32,014
$35,958
 $32,671


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Statutory Annuity Premiums
AFG’s annuity operations generated statutory premiums of $1.40$1.38 billion in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $1.27 billion$876 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $133$502 million (11%(57%). The following table summarizes AFG’s annuity sales (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Financial institutions single premium annuities — indexed$448
 $500
 (10%)$460
 $360
 28%
Financial institutions single premium annuities — fixed131
 215
 (39%)114
 82
 39%
Retail single premium annuities — indexed378
 265
 43%354
 219
 62%
Retail single premium annuities — fixed23
 19
 21%17
 18
 (6%)
Broker dealer single premium annuities — indexed355
 209
 70%322
 148
 118%
Broker dealer single premium annuities — fixed4
 3
 33%3
 1
 200%
Pension risk transfer56
 
 %
Education market — fixed and indexed annuities54
 47
 15%46
 41
 12%
Total fixed annuity premiums1,393
 1,258
 11%1,372
 869
 58%
Variable annuities6
 8
 (25%)6
 7
 (14%)
Total annuity premiums$1,399
 $1,266
 11%$1,378
 $876
 57%

Management attributes the 11%57% increase in annuity premiums in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017 to the introduction of new products, efforts to expand in the retail and broker dealer markets and an improving interest rate environment induring the first halfnine months of 2018.

On June 21, 2018, the United States Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals (“Fifth Circuit”) issued a mandate of its decision vacating the Department of Labor (“DOL”) Fiduciary Rule in its entirety. The Fifth Circuit’s order to vacate the DOL Fiduciary Rule applies nationwide. The law regarding fiduciary status is once again the law in effect prior to the DOL Fiduciary Rule.

On April 18, 2018, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a package of regulatory proposals to enhance standards of conduct, including a proposal to enhance the standard of conduct owed by broker-dealers to their clients known as Regulation Best Interest. If adopted as proposed, the Regulation Best Interest would heighten the standard that registered representatives need to meet when making a recommendation by requiring them to act in the best interest of the retail customer at the time of the recommendation. Regulation Best Interest further proposes that satisfying this duty would require (i) disclosing to the customer the key facts about the relationship, (ii) exercising reasonable diligence, care, skill and prudence in recommending a product that is in the client’s best interest, and (iii) disclosing, mitigating or eliminating conflicts of interests arising from financial incentives and disclosing other conflicts.

Although approximately 70-75% of AFG’s premiums come through registered representatives associated with broker-dealers, neither traditional fixed annuities nor fixed-indexed annuities are securities. Based on AFG’s initial assessment, if the proposals are adopted as is, the new requirements would not be expected to have a material impact on AFG’s premiums.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Annuity Unlocking
AFG monitors the major actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations throughout the year and conducts detailed reviews (“unlocking”) of its assumptions in the fourth quarter of each year. If changes in the economic environment or actual experience would cause material revisions to future estimates, these assumptions are updated (unlocked) in an interim quarter. Due to continued higher FIA option costs (resulting primarily from higher than expected risk-free interest rates), AFG unlocked its assumptions for option costs, interest rates and policyholder lapse behavior in the second quarter of 2018. AFG will continue its practice of conducting detailed reviews of its assumptions (including option costs and interest rates) in the fourth quarter each year, including 2018.

The unlocking of the major actuarial assumptions underlying AFG’s annuity operations in the second quarter of 2018 resulted in a net charge related to its annuity business of $27 million, which impacted AFG’s financial statements as follows (in millions):
  Three months ended June 30,
  2018 2017
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income:    
Unearned revenue $(1) $
Total revenues (1) 
Annuity benefits:    
Fixed-indexed annuity embedded derivative 44
 
Sales inducements (1) 
Other reserves 11
 
Total annuity benefits 54
 
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses:    
Deferred policy acquisition costs (28) 
Total costs and expenses 26
 
Net charge $(27) $

The net charge from unlocking annuity assumptions in the second quarter of 2018 is due primarily to the unfavorable impact of higher projected option costs, partially offset by the favorable impact of an increase in projected net interest spreads on in-force business (due primarily to higher than previously anticipated reinvestment rates). Reinvestment rate assumptions are based primarily on 7-year and 10-year corporate bond yields. For the 2018 unlocking, AFG assumed a net reinvestment rate (net of default and expense assumptions) of 4.44% in the second half of 2018, grading up ratably to an ultimate net reinvestment rate of 5.55% in 2022 and beyond.

The table below compares the reinvestment rate assumed on assets purchased to directly support “fixed annuity benefits accumulated” in AFG’s fourth quarter unlockings for the next calendar year to the actual reinvestment rate achieved in that period (both net of investment expenses):
  First    
Unlocking Investment Reinvestment Rate
Year Period Assumed (a) Achieved
2014 2015 3.75% 4.27%
2015 2016 4.05% 4.27%
2016 2017 4.42% 3.95%
2017      2018 (b) 4.17% 4.43%
2018 July 2018 4.62% n/a
(a)Assumed reinvestment rates exclude default rates of 0.18% in each period.
(b)Reinvestment rate achieved is for the six months ended June 30, 2018.

Management believes that these results over the last several years demonstrate that AFG’s investment rate assumptions are reasonable and prudent. During 2017, long-term interest rates were lower than anticipated and credit spreads narrowed, resulting in a lower achieved reinvestment rate than assumed in the 2016 unlocking. In addition to the reinvestment rates above, actual default rates in the first six months of 2018 and in 2017, 2016 and 2015 were lower than the long-term default rates of 0.18% assumed in the unlocking in each of the periods above.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Annuity Earnings before Income Taxes Reconciliation
The following table reconciles the net spread earned on AFG’s fixed annuities to overall annuity pretax earnings for the three months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (in millions):
Three months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Earnings on fixed annuity benefits accumulated$101
 $87
$119
 $105
Earnings impact of investments in excess of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (*)(3) (3)(3) (4)
Variable annuity earnings1
 1
1
 1
Earnings before income taxes$99
 $85
$117
 $102

(*)
Net investment income (as a % of investments) of 4.83% and 4.62%4.70% for both the three months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017, respectively, multiplied by the difference between average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost) and average fixed annuity benefits accumulated in each period.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Holding Company, Other and Unallocated — Results of Operations   AFG’s net GAAP pretax loss outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations (excluding realized gains and losses) totaled $48$46 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $51$67 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, a decrease of $3$21 million (6%(31%). AFG’s net core pretax loss outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations (excluding realized gains and losses) totaled $48$37 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $44$39 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increasea decrease of $4$2 million (9%(5%).

The following table details AFG’s GAAP and core loss before income taxes from operations outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations for the three months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (dollars in millions):
Three months ended June 30,  Three months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Revenues:          
Life, accident and health net earned premiums$6
 $5
 20%$6
 $6
 %
Net investment income7
 9
 (22%)10
 7
 43%
Other income — P&C fees15
 15
 %18
 17
 6%
Other income3
 7
 (57%)9
 9
 %
Total revenues31
 36
 (14%)43
 39
 10%
          
Costs and Expenses, excluding interest charges on borrowed money          
Property and casualty insurance — commissions and other underwriting expenses4
 8
 (50%)7
 4
 75%
Life, accident and health benefits11
 6
 83%10
 6
 67%
Life, accident and health acquisition expenses1
 1
 %2
 1
 100%
Other expense — expenses associated with P&C fees11
 7
 57%11
 13
 (15%)
Other expenses (*)36
 35
 3%35
 33
 6%
Costs and expenses, excluding interest charges on borrowed money63
 57
 11%65
 57
 14%
Core loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses and interest charges on borrowed money(32) (21) 52%(22) (18) 22%
Interest charges on borrowed money16
 23
 (30%)15
 21
 (29%)
Core loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses(48) (44) 9%(37) (39) (5%)
Pretax non-core special A&E charges(9) (24) (63%)
Pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt
 (7) (100%)
 (4) (100%)
GAAP loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses$(48) $(51) (6%)$(46) $(67) (31%)

(*)
Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $9 million and $24 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, and a pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt of $7$4 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017.

Holding Company and Other — Life, Accident and Health Premiums, Benefits and Acquisition Expenses
AFG’s run-off long-term care and life insurance operations recorded net earned premiums of $6 million and related benefits and acquisition expenses of $12 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to net earned premiums of $5$6 million and related benefits and acquisition expenses of $7 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017. The $5$4 million (83%(67%) increase in life, accident and health benefits reflects higher claims in both the run-off long-term care and run-off life business.insurance businesses.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Holding Company and Other — Net Investment Income
AFG recorded net investment income on investments held outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations of $7$10 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $9$7 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, a decreasean increase of $2$3 million (22%(43%). The parent company holds a small portfolio of securities that are carried at fair value through net investment income. These securities decreasedincreased in value by $1$3 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to an increase in value byof less than $1 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017.

Holding Company and Other — P&C Fees and Related Expenses
Summit, a workers’ compensation insurance subsidiary, collects fees from a small group of unaffiliated insurers for providing underwriting, policy administration and claims services. In addition, certain of AFG’s property and casualty insurance businesses collect fees from customers for ancillary services such as workplace safety programs and premium financing. In both the secondthird quarter of 2018, and 2017, AFG collected $15$18 million in fees for these services.services compared to $17 million in the third quarter of 2017. Management views this fee income, net of the $11 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and $7$13 million in the secondthird quarter of

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


2017, in expenses incurred to generate such fees, as a reduction in the cost of underwriting its property and casualty insurance policies. Consistent with internal management reporting, these fees and the related expenses are netted and recorded as a reduction of commissions and other underwriting expenses in AFG’s segmented results.

Holding Company and Other — Other Income
Other income in the table above includes $4 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 and $5 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, in management fees paid to AFG by the AFG-managed CLOs (AFG’s consolidated managed investment entities). The management fees are eliminated in consolidation — see the other income line in the Consolidate MIEs column under “Results of Operations — Segmented Statement of Earnings.” AFG recorded a $2 million loss on the disposal of equipment in the second quarter of 2018. Excluding amounts eliminated in consolidation, and the loss on the disposal of equipment, AFG recorded other income outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations of $1$5 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $2$4 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017.

Holding Company and Other — Other Expenses
Excluding the non-core special A&E charges and the non-core loss on retirement of debt discussed below, AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations recorded other expenses of $36$35 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $35$33 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increase of $1$2 million (3%(6%). The second quarter of 2018 reflects lower holding company expenses related to employee benefit plans that are tied to stock market performance, offset by a $5 million charge to increase liabilities related to the environmental exposures of AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations.

Holding Company and Other — Interest Charges on Borrowed Money
AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations recorded interest expense of $1615 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $23$21 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, a decrease of $7$6 million (30%(29%) due primarily to a lower weighted average interest rate on AFG’s outstanding debt. The following table details the principal amount of AFG’s long-term debt balances as of AprilJuly 1, 2018 compared to AprilJuly 1, 2017 (dollars in millions):
 April 1,
2018
 April 1,
2017
Direct obligations of AFG:   
4.50% Senior Notes due June 2047$590
 $
3.50% Senior Notes due August 2026425
 300
9-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2019
 350
6-3/8% Senior Notes due June 2042
 230
5-3/4% Senior Notes due August 2042
 125
6-1/4% Subordinated Debentures due September 2054150
 150
6% Subordinated Debentures due November 2055150
 150
Other3
 3
Total principal amount of Holding Company Debt$1,318
 $1,308
    
Weighted Average Interest Rate4.6% 6.5%


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued

 July 1,
2018
 July 1,
2017
Direct obligations of AFG:   
4.50% Senior Notes due June 2047$590
 $350
3.50% Senior Notes due August 2026425
 300
9-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2019
 350
5-3/4% Senior Notes due August 2042
 125
6-1/4% Subordinated Debentures due September 2054150
 150
6% Subordinated Debentures due November 2055150
 150
Other3
 3
Total principal amount of Holding Company Debt$1,318
 $1,428
    
Weighted Average Interest Rate4.6% 6.1%

The decrease in the weighted average interest rate for the secondthird quarter of 2018 as compared to the secondthird quarter of 2017 reflects the following financing transactions completed by AFG between AprilJuly 1, 2017 and December 31, 2017:
Issued $350 million of 4.50% Senior Notes on June 2, 2017
Redeemed $230 million of 6-3/8% Senior Notes on June 26, 2017
Redeemed $125 million of 5-3/4% Senior Notes on August 25, 2017
Issued an additional $125 million of 3.50% Senior Notes on November 9, 2017
Issued an additional $240 million of 4.50% Senior Notes on November 9, 2017
Redeemed $350 million of 9-7/8% Senior Notes on December 11, 2017

Holding Company and Other — Special A&E Charges
As a result of the 2018 in-depth internal review and the 2017 comprehensive external study of A&E exposures discussed under Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges under “Results of Operations — Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Net prior year reserve development,” AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its insurance operations recorded pretax special charges of $9 million in the third quarter of 2018 and $24 million in the third quarter of 2017 to increase liabilities related to the A&E exposures of AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations. The charges in both periods were due primarily to relatively small movements across several sites that primarily reflect changes in the scope and costs of investigation. In addition, AFG has seen a small increase in claims arising from exposure to deleterious substances other than asbestos, which caused it to increase its estimated future liability in the 2017 quarter.

Holding Company and Other — Loss on Retirement of Debt
AFG wrote off unamortized debt issuance costs of $7$4 million related to the redemption of its $230$125 million outstanding 6-3/8%5-3/4% Senior Notes due 2042 at par value in JuneAugust 2017.

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Consolidated Realized Gains (Losses) on Securities   AFG’s consolidated realized gains (losses) on securities, which are not allocated to segments, were a net gain of $31$34 million in the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $8losses of $12 million in the secondthird quarter of 2017, an increaseimprovement of $23$46 million (288%(383%). Realized gains (losses) on securities consisted of the following (in millions):
Three months ended June 30,Three months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Realized gains (losses) before impairments:      
Disposals$5
 $22
$2
 $29
Change in the fair value of equity securities (*)23
 
33
 
Change in the fair value of derivatives(1) (3)(2) (1)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items4
 (2)3
 (2)
31
 17
36
 26
Impairment charges:      
Securities
 (12)(2) (44)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items
 3

 6

 (9)(2) (38)
Realized gains on securities$31
 $8
Realized gains (losses) on securities$34
 $(12)
(*)
As discussed in Note A — “Accounting PoliciesInvestments,” beginning in January 2018, all equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method are carried at fair value through net earnings. This amount includes a $16$25 million net gain on securities that were still held at JuneSeptember 30, 2018.

The $23$33 million net realized gain from the change in the fair value of equity securities in the secondthird quarter of 2018 includes gains of $11 million on investments in technology companies, $10 million on real estate investment trusts,from investments in communications companies and $8 million on health care-related investments and losses of $7 million from investments in banks and financing companies.investments. AFG’s $12$44 million in impairment charges for the secondthird quarter of 2017 consisted of $29 million on equity securities and $15 million on fixed maturities. Approximately $14 million in impairment charges in the third quarter of 2017 related to investments in pharmaceutical companies, $10 million related to an investment in a media company and the remainder related primarily to equity security investments in a pharmaceutical company and an energy-related business.various industrial entities.

Consolidated Income Taxes   AFG’s consolidated provision for income taxes was $52$41 million for the secondthird quarter of 2018 compared to $60$18 million for the secondthird quarter of 2017, a decreasean increase of $8$23 million (13%(128%). See Note L — “Income Taxesto the financial statements for an analysis of items affecting AFG’s effective tax rate.

Consolidated Noncontrolling Interests   AFG’s consolidated net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests was a net loss of $2$1 million for the secondthird quarter of 2018 related to losses at Neon, AFG’s United Kingdom-based Lloyd’s insurer.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS — SIXNINE MONTHS ENDED JUNESEPTEMBER 30, 2018 AND 2017

Segmented Statement of Earnings   AFG reports its business as three segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance (“P&C”), (ii) Annuity and (iii) Other, which includes run-off long-term care and life, holding company costs and income and expenses related to the managed investment entities (“MIEs”).

Effective January 1, 2018, the results of AFG’s run-off long-term care and life businesses are included in the “Other” segment instead of as a separate reportable segment based on the immaterial size of the remaining operations. Prior periods amounts were reclassified for consistent presentation.

AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. The following tables for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 identify such items by segment and reconcile net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure that AFG believes is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends (in millions):
    Other          Other      
P&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP TotalP&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP Total
Six months ended June 30, 2018             
Nine months ended September 30, 2018             
Revenues:                          
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums$2,268
 $
 $
 $
 $2,268
 $
 $2,268
$3,595
 $
 $
 $
 $3,595
 $
 $3,595
Life, accident and health net earned premiums
 
 
 12
 12
 
 12

 
 
 18
 18
 
 18
Net investment income215
 806
 (7) 11
 1,025
 
 1,025
323
 1,219
 (11) 21
 1,552
 
 1,552
Realized losses on securities
 
 
 
 
 (62) (62)
 
 
 
 
 (28) (28)
Income (loss) of MIEs:                          
Investment income
 
 122
 
 122
 
 122

 
 187
 
 187
 
 187
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 
 (5) 
 (5) 
 (5)
 
 (10) 
 (10) 
 (10)
Other income4
 53
 (8) 43
 92
 
 92
8
 80
 (12) 70
 146
 
 146
Total revenues2,487
 859
 102
 66
 3,514
 (62) 3,452
3,926
 1,299
 154
 109
 5,488
 (28) 5,460
                          
Costs and Expenses:                          
Property and casualty insurance:                          
Losses and loss adjustment expenses1,334
 
 
 
 1,334
 
 1,334
2,188
 
 
 
 2,188
 18
 2,206
Commissions and other underwriting expenses771
 
 
 10
 781
 
 781
1,188
 
 
 17
 1,205
 
 1,205
Annuity benefits
 442
 
 
 442
 
 442

 664
 
 
 664
 
 664
Life, accident and health benefits
 
 
 22
 22
 
 22

 
 
 32
 32
 
 32
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
 130
 
 2
 132
 
 132

 199
 
 4
 203
 
 203
Interest charges on borrowed money
 
 
 31
 31
 
 31

 
 
 46
 46
 
 46
Expenses of MIEs
 
 102
 
 102
 
 102

 
 154
 
 154
 
 154
Other expenses20
 63
 
 91
 174
 
 174
31
 95
 
 137
 263
 9
 272
Total costs and expenses2,125
 635
 102
 156
 3,018
 
 3,018
3,407
 958
 154
 236
 4,755
 27
 4,782
Earnings before income taxes362
 224
 
 (90) 496
 (62) 434
519
 341
 
 (127) 733
 (55) 678
Provision for income taxes74
 46
 
 (22) 98
 (13) 85
100
 65
 
 (27) 138
 (12) 126
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests288
 178
 
 (68) 398
 (49) 349
419
 276
 
 (100) 595
 (43) 552
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests(6) 
 
 
 (6) 
 (6)
Less: Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests(7) 
 
 
 (7) 
 (7)
Core Net Operating Earnings294
 178
 
 (68) 404
    426
 276
 
 (100) 602
    
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):                          
Realized losses on securities, net of tax
 
 
 (49) (49) 49
 

 
 
 (22) (22) 22
 
Special A&E charges, net of tax(14) 
 
 (7) (21) 21
 
Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders$294
 $178
 $
 $(117) $355
 $
 $355
$412
 $276
 $
 $(129) $559
 $
 $559

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


    Other          Other      
P&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP TotalP&C Annuity Consol. MIEs Holding Co., other and unallocated Total Non-core reclass GAAP Total
Six months ended June 30, 2017             
Nine months ended September 30, 2017             
Revenues:                          
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums$2,087
 $
 $
 $
 $2,087
 $
 $2,087
$3,354
 $
 $
 $
 $3,354
 $
 $3,354
Life, accident and health net earned premiums
 
 
 11
 11
 
 11

 
 
 17
 17
 
 17
Net investment income182
 707
 (11) 17
 895
 
 895
276
 1,082
 (16) 24
 1,366
 
 1,366
Realized gains on securities
 
 
 
 
 11
 11
Realized losses on securities
 
 
 
 
 (1) (1)
Income of MIEs:                          
Investment income
 
 101
 
 101
 
 101

 
 155
 
 155
 
 155
Gain on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
 
 11
 
 11
 
 11

 
 12
 
 12
 
 12
Other income20
 53
 (9) 42
 106
 
 106
21
 79
 (14) 68
 154
 
 154
Total revenues2,289
 760
 92
 70
 3,211
 11
 3,222
3,651
 1,161
 137
 109
 5,058
 (1) 5,057
                          
Costs and Expenses:                          
Property and casualty insurance:                          
Losses and loss adjustment expenses1,244
 
 
 
 1,244
 
 1,244
2,150
 
 
 
 2,150
 89
 2,239
Commissions and other underwriting expenses693
 
 
 12
 705
 
 705
1,046
 
 
 16
 1,062
 
 1,062
Annuity benefits
 420
 
 
 420
 
 420

 635
 
 
 635
 
 635
Life, accident and health benefits
 
 
 15
 15
 
 15

 
 
 21
 21
 
 21
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
 99
 
 2
 101
 
 101

 153
 
 3
 156
 
 156
Interest charges on borrowed money
 
 
 44
 44
 
 44

 
 
 65
 65
 
 65
Expenses of MIEs
 
 92
 
 92
 
 92

 
 137
 
 137
 
 137
Other expenses18
 60
 
 88
 166
 7
 173
26
 90
 
 134
 250
 35
 285
Total costs and expenses1,955
 579
 92
 161
 2,787
 7
 2,794
3,222
 878
 137
 239
 4,476
 124
 4,600
Earnings before income taxes334
 181
 
 (91) 424
 4
 428
429
 283
 
 (130) 582
 (125) 457
Provision for income taxes107
 62
 
 (43) 126
 2
 128
150
 96
 
 (57) 189
 (43) 146
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests227
 119
 
 (48) 298
 2
 300
279
 187
 
 (73) 393
 (82) 311
Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests2
 
 
 
 2
 
 2
2
 
 
 
 2
 
 2
Core Net Operating Earnings225
 119
 
 (48) 296
    277
 187
 
 (73) 391
    
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):                          
Realized gains on securities, net of tax
 
 
 7
 7
 (7) 
Realized losses on securities, net of tax
 
 
 (1) (1) 1
 
Special A&E charges, net of tax(58) 
 
 (16) (74) 74
 
Loss on retirement of debt, net of tax
 
 
 (5) (5) 5
 

 
 
 (7) (7) 7
 
Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders$225
 $119
 $
 $(46) $298
 $
 $298
$219
 $187
 $
 $(97) $309
 $
 $309

(a)
See the reconciliation of core earnings to GAAP net earnings under “Results of Operations — General” for details on the tax and noncontrolling interest impacts of these reconciling items.

Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Results of Operations   AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations contributed $362$501 million in GAAP pretax earnings in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $334340 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $28161 million (8%(47%). Property and casualty core pretax earnings were $519 million in the first nine months of 2018 compared to $429 million in the first nine months of 2017, an increase of $90 million (21%). The increase in pretaxGAAP and core operating earnings reflects higher underwriting profitprofits in the Specialty casualty insurance sub-segmentfirst nine months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 due primarily to lower catastrophe losses and higher favorable prior year reserve development as well as higher net investment income, due primarily to higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments and growth in the business, partially offset by lower underwriting profits in the Property and transportation and Specialty financial insurance sub-segments and lower income from the sale of real estate in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017. The high returns on limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods. The increase in GAAP pretax earnings also reflects lower special A&E charges in the first nine months of 2018 compared to the first nine months of 2017.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its property and casualty insurance operations for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (dollars in millions):

Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Gross written premiums$3,123
 $2,827
 10%$5,227
 $4,931
 6%
Reinsurance premiums ceded(764) (670) 14%(1,412) (1,341) 5%
Net written premiums2,359
 2,157
 9%3,815
 3,590
 6%
Change in unearned premiums(91) (70) 30%(220) (236) (7%)
Net earned premiums2,268
 2,087
 9%3,595
 3,354
 7%
Loss and loss adjustment expenses1,334
 1,244
 7%
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (*)2,188
 2,150
 2%
Commissions and other underwriting expenses771
 693
 11%1,188
 1,046
 14%
Underwriting gain163
 150
 9%
Core underwriting gain219
 158
 39%
          
Net investment income215
 182
 18%323
 276
 17%
Other income and expenses, net(16) 2
 (900%)(23) (5) 360%
Earnings before income taxes$362
 $334
 8%
Core earnings before income taxes519
 429
 21%
Pretax non-core special A&E charges(18) (89) (80%)
GAAP earnings before income taxes$501
 $340
 47%
     
(*) Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $18 million and $89 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively.(*) Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $18 million and $89 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively.
     
          
Combined Ratios:          
Specialty lines    Change    Change
Loss and LAE ratio58.8% 59.5% (0.7%)60.8% 64.0% (3.2%)
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.2% 0.8%33.0% 31.2% 1.8%
Combined ratio92.8% 92.7% 0.1%93.8% 95.2% (1.4%)
          
Aggregate — including exited lines          
Loss and LAE ratio58.8% 59.6% (0.8%)61.4% 66.7% (5.3%)
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.2% 0.8%33.0% 31.2% 1.8%
Combined ratio92.8% 92.8% %94.4% 97.9% (3.5%)

AFG reports the underwriting performance of its Specialty property and casualty insurance business in the following sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, (ii) Specialty casualty and (iii) Specialty financial.

Gross Written Premiums
Gross written premiums (“GWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $3.125.23 billion for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $2.834.93 billion for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $296 million (10%6%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty gross written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017  2018 2017  
GWP % GWP % % ChangeGWP % GWP % % Change
Property and transportation$1,041
 33% $989
 35% 5%$1,994
 38% $2,062
 42% (3%)
Specialty casualty1,711
 55% 1,500
 53% 14%2,667
 51% 2,350
 48% 13%
Specialty financial371
 12% 338
 12% 10%566
 11% 519
 10% 9%
$3,123
 100% $2,827
 100% 10%$5,227
 100% $4,931
 100% 6%


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Reinsurance Premiums Ceded
Reinsurance premiums ceded (“Ceded”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were 24%27% of gross written premiums for both the first sixnine months of 2018 and the first sixnine months of 2017. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty reinsurance premiums ceded is shown below (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 Change in2018 2017 Change in
Ceded % of GWP Ceded % of GWP % of GWPCeded % of GWP Ceded % of GWP % of GWP
Property and transportation$(295) 28% $(272) 28% %$(688) 35% $(721) 35% %
Specialty casualty(478) 28% (399) 27% 1%(739) 28% (625) 27% 1%
Specialty financial(64) 17% (48) 14% 3%(106) 19% (79) 15% 4%
Other specialty73
   49
    121
   84
    
$(764) 24% $(670) 24% %$(1,412) 27% $(1,341) 27% %

Net Written Premiums
Net written premiums (“NWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $2.36$3.82 billion for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $2.163.59 billion for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $202225 million (9%6%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017  2018 2017  
NWP % NWP % % ChangeNWP % NWP % % Change
Property and transportation$746
 32% $717
 33% 4%$1,306
 34% $1,341
 37% (3%)
Specialty casualty1,233
 52% 1,101
 51% 12%1,928
 51% 1,725
 48% 12%
Specialty financial307
 13% 290
 13% 6%460
 12% 440
 12% 5%
Other specialty73
 3% 49
 3% 49%121
 3% 84
 3% 44%
$2,359
 100% $2,157
 100% 9%$3,815
 100% $3,590
 100% 6%

Net Earned Premiums
Net earned premiums (“NEP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $2.273.60 billion for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $2.09$3.35 billion for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $181241 million (9%7%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net earned premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017  2018 2017  
NEP % NEP % % ChangeNEP % NEP % % Change
Property and transportation$724
 32% $699
 33% 4%$1,250
 35% $1,226
 37% 2%
Specialty casualty1,174
 52% 1,045
 50% 12%1,790
 50% 1,613
 48% 11%
Specialty financial308
 13% 293
 14% 5%457
 12% 435
 13% 5%
Other specialty62
 3% 50
 3% 24%98
 3% 80
 2% 23%
$2,268
 100% $2,087
 100% 9%$3,595
 100% $3,354
 100% 7%

The $296 million (10%(6%) increase in gross written premiums for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects growth in each of the Specialty propertycasualty and casualty insurance sub-segments.Specialty financial sub-segments, partially offset by lower gross written premiums in the Property and transportation sub-segment. Overall average renewal rates increased approximately 1% in the first sixnine months of 2018. Excluding the workers’ compensation business, renewal pricing increased approximately 3%.

Property and transportation Gross written premiums increaseddecreased $5268 million (5%3%) in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017. This increasedecrease was largely the result of new business opportunities in the property and inland marine businesses and higherlower year-over-year premiums in the crop insurance business, as well as a change in the timing of two large policy renewals in one of the transportation businesses which included a 5% average renewal rate increasefrom the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Gross written premiums in National Interstate’s business.the other businesses in this group grew by 6% in the first nine months of 2018 compared to the first nine months of 2017. Average renewal rates increased approximately 4% for this group in the first sixnine months of 2018. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums arewere comparable between periods.in the first nine months of 2018 and the first nine months of 2017.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Specialty casualty Gross written premiums increased $211317 million (14%13%) in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017 due primarily to growth at Neon. Higher gross written premiums in the general liability, executive liability and excess and surplus lines businesses also contributed to the year-over-year growth. Average renewal rates decreased

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


approximately less than 1% for this group in the first sixnine months of 2018. Excluding rate decreases in the workers’ compensation businesses, renewal rates for this group increased approximately 2%. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums increased 1 percentage point for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, reflecting higher cessions to AFG’s internal reinsurance program, which is included in Other specialty.specialty and higher cessions in the workers’ compensation businesses.

Specialty financial Gross written premiums increased $33$47 million (10%(9%) in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017 due primarily to higher premiums in the financial institutions and equipment leasing businesses.business. Average renewal rates for this group increased approximately 4%5% in the first sixnine months of 2018. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums increased 34 percentage points for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, reflecting higher cessions in the financial institutions and equipment leasing businesses.businesses and the impact of a reinstatement premium in the third quarter of 2018 resulting from a reinsured loss in the fidelity business.

Other specialty The amounts shown as reinsurance premiums ceded represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty property and casualty insurance sub-segments. Reinsurance premiums assumed increased $24$37 million (49%(44%) in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, reflecting an increase in premiums retained, primarily from businesses in the Specialty casualty sub-segment.

Combined Ratio
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of the combined ratio for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment:
Six months ended June 30,   Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,   Nine months ended September 30,
2018 2017 Change 2018 20172018 2017 Change 2018 2017
Property and transportation                  
Loss and LAE ratio63.4% 62.8% 0.6%    69.2% 69.1% 0.1%    
Underwriting expense ratio28.8% 27.9% 0.9%    26.3% 25.2% 1.1%    
Combined ratio92.2% 90.7% 1.5%    95.5% 94.3% 1.2%    
Underwriting profit      $56
 $64
      $56
 $70
                  
Specialty casualty                  
Loss and LAE ratio61.5% 64.1% (2.6%)    60.7% 66.4% (5.7%)    
Underwriting expense ratio32.5% 31.7% 0.8%    32.6% 30.7% 1.9%    
Combined ratio94.0% 95.8% (1.8%)    93.3% 97.1% (3.8%)    
Underwriting profit      $70
 $44
      $119
 $46
                  
Specialty financial                  
Loss and LAE ratio37.0% 34.4% 2.6%    38.0% 41.4% (3.4%)    
Underwriting expense ratio50.9% 50.4% 0.5%    52.0% 49.0% 3.0%    
Combined ratio87.9% 84.8% 3.1%    90.0% 90.4% (0.4%)    
Underwriting profit      $37
 $45
      $46
 $42
                  
Total Specialty                  
Loss and LAE ratio58.8% 59.5% (0.7%)    60.8% 64.0% (3.2%)    
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.2% 0.8%    33.0% 31.2% 1.8%    
Combined ratio92.8% 92.7% 0.1%    93.8% 95.2% (1.4%)    
Underwriting profit      $165
 $152
      $220
 $161
                  
Aggregate — including exited lines                  
Loss and LAE ratio58.8% 59.6% (0.8%)    61.4% 66.7% (5.3%)    
Underwriting expense ratio34.0% 33.2% 0.8%    33.0% 31.2% 1.8%    
Combined ratio92.8% 92.8% %    94.4% 97.9% (3.5%)    
Underwriting profit      $163
 $150
      $201
 $69

The Specialty property and casualty insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $165 million for the first six months of 2018 compared to $152 million for the first six months of 2017, an increase of $13 million (9%). Higher underwriting profit in the Specialty casualty insurance sub-segment was partially offset by lower underwriting profits in the Property and transportation and Specialty financial insurance sub-segments.

Property and transportation Underwriting profit for this group was $56 million for the first six months of 2018 compared to $64 million for the first six months of 2017, a decrease of $8 million (13%). Higher underwriting profit in the crop business and

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


improved results in the ocean marine operations were more than offset by lower underwriting profits in the property and inland marine and equine businesses.

Specialty casualty Underwriting profit for this group was $70 million for the first six months of 2018 compared to $44 million for the first six months of 2017, an increase of $26 million (59%). Higher underwriting profits in the workers’ compensation businesses due primarily to higher favorable prior year reserve development and improved results in the targeted markets businesses were partially offset by higher underwriting losses at Neon.

Specialty financial Underwriting profit for this group was $37 million for the first six months of 2018 compared to $45 million for the first six months of 2017, a decrease of $8 million (18%) due primarily to lower underwriting profitability in the fidelity and surety businesses.

Other specialty This group reported an underwriting profit of $2 million for the first six months of 2018 compared to an underwriting loss of $1 million in the first six months of 2017, a change of $3 million (300%). This improvement is due primarily to a $6 million charge recorded in 2017 to adjust the deferred gain on the retroactive reinsurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998, partially offset by adverse prior year reserve development in the business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments in the first six months of 2018 compared to favorable reserve development in the first six months of 2017.

Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
AFG’s overall loss and LAE ratio was 58.8% for the first six months of 2018 compared to 59.6% for the first six months of 2017, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The components of AFG’s property and casualty losses and LAE amounts and ratio are detailed below (dollars in millions):
 Six months ended June 30,  
 Amount Ratio Change in
 2018 2017 2018 2017 Ratio
Property and transportation         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$483
 $452
 66.7% 64.6% 2.1%
Prior accident years development(39) (28) (5.4%) (4.0%) (1.4%)
Current year catastrophe losses15
 16
 2.1% 2.2% (0.1%)
Property and transportation losses and LAE and ratio$459
 $440
 63.4% 62.8% 0.6%
          
Specialty casualty         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$767
 $678
 65.2% 64.8% 0.4%
Prior accident years development(50) (11) (4.2%) (1.0%) (3.2%)
Current year catastrophe losses6
 3
 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Specialty casualty losses and LAE and ratio$723
 $670
 61.5% 64.1% (2.6%)
          
Specialty financial         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$119
 $112
 38.7% 38.2% 0.5%
Prior accident years development(11) (17) (3.6%) (5.8%) 2.2%
Current year catastrophe losses6
 6
 1.9% 2.0% (0.1%)
Specialty financial losses and LAE and ratio$114
 $101
 37.0% 34.4% 2.6%
          
Total Specialty         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$1,405
 $1,269
 62.0% 60.8% 1.2%
Prior accident years development(102) (52) (4.5%) (2.5%) (2.0%)
Current year catastrophe losses29
 25
 1.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Total Specialty losses and LAE and ratio$1,332
 $1,242
 58.8% 59.5% (0.7%)
          
Aggregate — including exited lines         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$1,405
 $1,269
 62.0% 60.8% 1.2%
Prior accident years development(100) (50) (4.5%) (2.4%) (2.1%)
Current year catastrophe losses29
 25
 1.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Aggregate losses and LAE and ratio$1,334
 $1,244
 58.8% 59.6% (0.8%)

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The Specialty property and casualty insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $220 million for the first nine months of 2018 compared to $161 million for the first nine months of 2017, an increase of $59 million (37%) with the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial sub-segments reporting higher year-over-year underwriting profit, due primarily to significantly lower catastrophe losses and higher favorable prior year reserve development in the Specialty casualty sub-segment. Overall catastrophe losses were $64 million (1.8 points on the combined ratio) for the first nine months of 2018 compared to $132 million (3.9 points) for the first nine months of 2017. In connection with catastrophe losses incurred in the first nine months of 2018, AFG paid $3 million in net reinstatement premiums, resulting in a total pretax loss from catastrophes of $67 million. In connection with catastrophe losses incurred in the first nine months of 2017, AFG reduced profit-based commissions payable to agents by $8 million in the Specialty financial sub-segment and paid $6 million in net reinstatement premiums, resulting in a total pretax loss from catastrophes of $130 million.

Property and transportation Underwriting profit for this group was $56 million for the first nine months of 2018 compared to $70 million for the first nine months of 2017, a decrease of $14 million (20%). Higher underwriting profit in the crop business and at National Interstate, and improved results in the ocean marine operations were more than offset by lower underwriting profits in the property and inland marine, aviation, trucking and equine businesses. Catastrophe losses were $27 million (2.2 points on the combined ratio) and reinstatement premiums paid were $1 million for the first nine months of 2018 compared to catastrophe losses of $39 million (3.2 points) and related reinstatement premiums of $2 million for the first nine months of 2017.

Specialty casualty Underwriting profit for this group was $119 million for the first nine months of 2018 compared to $46 million for the first nine months of 2017, an increase of $73 million (159%). These results reflect lower catastrophe losses at Neon, higher underwriting profits in the workers’ compensation businesses, due primarily to higher favorable prior year reserve development, and improved results in the executive liability business. Catastrophe losses were $17 million (0.9 points on the combined ratio) and reinstatement premiums paid were $1 million for the first nine months of 2018 compared to catastrophe losses of $57 million (3.5 points) and related reinstatement premiums of $2 million for the first nine months of 2017.

Specialty financial Underwriting profit for this group was $46 million for the first nine months of 2018 compared to $42 million for the first nine months of 2017, an increase of $4 million (10%) due primarily to lower catastrophe losses in the lender-placed mortgage property book within the financial institutions business. Catastrophe losses were $18 million (3.9 points on the combined ratio) for the first nine months of 2018 compared to $35 million (8.0 points) for the first nine months of 2017. In connection with catastrophe losses incurred in the third quarter of 2018, the Specialty financial sub-segment paid $1 million in reinstatement premiums compared to a reduction of profit-based commissions payable to agents of $8 million and reinstatement premiums of $2 million in the first nine months of 2017.

Other specialty This group reported an underwriting loss of $1 million for the first nine months of 2018 compared to an underwriting profit of $3 million in the first nine months of 2017, a decrease of $4 million (133%). This decrease is due primarily to losses in the business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments in the first nine months of 2018 compared to earnings in the first nine months of 2017, partially offset by the impact of a $6 million charge recorded in 2017 to adjust the deferred gain on the retroactive reinsurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998.

Aggregate See Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges under “Results of Operations — Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Net prior year reserve development” for the quarters ended September 30, 2018 and 2017 for a discussion of the $18 million and $89 million pretax non-core special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively.

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
AFG’s overall loss and LAE ratio was 61.4% for the first nine months of 2018 compared to 66.7% for the first nine months of 2017, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points. The components of AFG’s property and casualty losses and LAE amounts and ratio are detailed below (dollars in millions):
 Nine months ended September 30,  
 Amount Ratio Change in
 2018 2017 2018 2017 Ratio
Property and transportation         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$881
 $844
 70.5% 68.9% 1.6%
Prior accident years development(43) (36) (3.5%) (3.0%) (0.5%)
Current year catastrophe losses27
 39
 2.2% 3.2% (1.0%)
Property and transportation losses and LAE and ratio$865
 $847
 69.2% 69.1% 0.1%
          
Specialty casualty         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$1,157
 $1,049
 64.6% 65.0% (0.4%)
Prior accident years development(87) (34) (4.8%) (2.1%) (2.7%)
Current year catastrophe losses17
 57
 0.9% 3.5% (2.6%)
Specialty casualty losses and LAE and ratio$1,087
 $1,072
 60.7% 66.4% (5.7%)
          
Specialty financial         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$175
 $167
 38.2% 38.4% (0.2%)
Prior accident years development(19) (22) (4.1%) (5.0%) 0.9%
Current year catastrophe losses18
 35
 3.9% 8.0% (4.1%)
Specialty financial losses and LAE and ratio$174
 $180
 38.0% 41.4% (3.4%)
          
Total Specialty         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$2,274
 $2,105
 63.3% 62.7% 0.6%
Prior accident years development(151) (90) (4.3%) (2.6%) (1.7%)
Current year catastrophe losses64
 132
 1.8% 3.9% (2.1%)
Total Specialty losses and LAE and ratio$2,187
 $2,147
 60.8% 64.0% (3.2%)
          
Aggregate — including exited lines         
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses$2,273
 $2,105
 63.3% 62.7% 0.6%
Prior accident years development(131) 2
 (3.7%) 0.1% (3.8%)
Current year catastrophe losses64
 132
 1.8% 3.9% (2.1%)
Aggregate losses and LAE and ratio$2,206
 $2,239
 61.4% 66.7% (5.3%)
Current accident year losses and LAE, excluding catastrophe losses
The current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophe losses for AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations was 62.0%63.3% for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to 60.8%62.7% for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of 1.20.6 percentage points.

Property and transportation   The 2.11.6 percentage point increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects an increase in the loss and LAE ratio of the aviation, property and inland marine and equine businesses in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017.

Specialty casualty   The 0.4 percentage point increasedecrease in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects a decrease in the loss and LAE ratio at Neon, due primarily to a change in the mix of business, partially offset by an increase in the loss and LAE ratio ofin the targeted markets businesses.

Specialty financial   The 0.5 percentage point increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects an increase in the loss and LAE ratio of the trade credit business.is comparable between periods.

Net prior year reserve development
AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations recorded net favorable reserve development related to prior accident years of $102151 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $52$90 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $50$61 million (96%(68%).

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Property and transportation Net favorable reserve development of $3943 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 reflects lower than expected losses in the crop business and lower than expected claim severity at National Interstate, partially offset by higher than expected claim severity in the transportation businesses.Singapore branch and aviation operations. Net favorable reserve development of $28$36 million in the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects lower than expected losses in the crop and equine businesses and lower than expected claim severity in the property and inland marine business,and transportation businesses, partially offset by higher than expected claim severity in the ocean marine business.

Specialty casualty Net favorable reserve development of $50$87 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses, and to a lesser extent, lower than expected claim severity in the executive liability business. This was partially offset by higher than expected claim frequency and severity in the workers’ compensation businesses.excess and surplus lines. Net favorable reserve development of $11$34 million in the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects lower than expectedanticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses and at Neon, partially offset by higher than expectedanticipated claim severity in the targeted markets and general liability businesses.

Specialty financial Net favorable reserve development of $11$19 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 reflects lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business and lower than expected claim severity in the fidelity business. Net favorable reserve development of $17$22 million in the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the fidelity business and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business.

Other specialty In addition to the development discussed above, total Specialty prior year reserve development includes net favorable reserve development of $2 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and net adverse reserve development of $4$2 million in the first sixnine months of 2017. The favorable development in the first sixnine months of 2018 reflects amortization of the deferred gains on the retroactive reinsurance transactions entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998 and 2001, partially offset by adverse reserve development associated with AFG’s internal reinsurance program. The adverse reserve development in the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects a $6 million charge to adjust the deferred gain on the retroactive reinsurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998, partially offset by the amortization of deferred gains on retroactive reinsurance and favorable reserve development associated with AFG’s internal reinsurance program.

Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges See Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges under “Results of Operations — Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Net prior year reserve development” for the quarters ended September 30, 2018 and 2017 for a discussion of the $18 million and $89 million special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively.

Aggregate Aggregate net prior accident years reserve development for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment includes the special A&E charges mentioned above and net adverse reserve development of $2 million in both the first sixnine months of 2018 and $3 million in the first sixnine months of 2017 related to business outside the Specialty group that AFG no longer writes.

Catastrophe losses
Catastrophe losses of $29$64 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 resulted primarily from Hurricane Florence, storms and flooding in several regions of the United States and mudslides in California. Catastrophe losses of $25$132 million in the first sixnine months of 2017 resulted primarily from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, two earthquakes in Mexico and storms and tornadoes in several regions of the United States.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Commissions and Other Underwriting Expenses
AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses (“U/W Exp”) were $771 million$1.19 billion in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $693 million$1.05 billion for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $78$142 million (11%(14%). AFG’s underwriting expense ratio was 34.0%33.0% for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to 33.2%31.2% for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of 0.81.8 percentage points. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses and underwriting expense ratios is shown below (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 Change in2018 2017 Change in
U/W Exp % of NEP U/W Exp % of NEP % of NEPU/W Exp % of NEP U/W Exp % of NEP % of NEP
Property and transportation$209
 28.8% $195
 27.9% 0.9%$329
 26.3% $309
 25.2% 1.1%
Specialty casualty381
 32.5% 331
 31.7% 0.8%584
 32.6% 495
 30.7% 1.9%
Specialty financial157
 50.9% 147
 50.4% 0.5%237
 52.0% 213
 49.0% 3.0%
Other specialty24
 38.0% 20
 37.1% 0.9%38
 37.8% 29
 35.4% 2.4%
Total Specialty$771
 34.0% $693
 33.2% 0.8%$1,188
 33.0% $1,046
 31.2% 1.8%

Property and transportation   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 0.91.1 percentage points in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, reflecting a change in the mix of business, partially offset by higher profitability-based commissions received from reinsurerslower premiums in the crop business.business, which has a lower expense ratio than AFG’s overall Property and transportation group and an increase in the expense ratio in the transportation businesses.

Specialty casualty   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 0.81.9 percentage points in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, reflecting growth at Neon, which has a higher expense ratio than AFG’s overall Specialty casualty group.group and higher dividends paid to policyholders in the workers’ compensation businesses.

Specialty financial   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 0.53.0 percentage points in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, reflecting higher ceding commissions and higher profitability-based commissions paid to agents in the financial institutions business.business compared to the first nine months of 2017, which included an $8 million commission expense reduction due to hurricane losses in the period.

Property and Casualty Net Investment Income
Net investment income in AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations was $215323 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $182276 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $33$47 million (18%(17%). The average invested assets and overall yield earned on investments held by AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations are provided below (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,    Nine months ended September 30,    
2018 2017 Change % Change2018 2017 Change % Change
Net investment income$215
 $182
 $33
 18%$323
 $276
 $47
 17%
              
Average invested assets (at amortized cost)$10,395
 $9,872
 $523
 5%$10,405
 $9,853
 $552
 6%
              
Yield (net investment income as a % of average invested assets)4.14% 3.69% 0.45% 

4.14% 3.73% 0.41% 

              
Tax equivalent yield (*)4.32% 4.16% 0.16% 

4.32% 4.20% 0.12% 


(*)
Adjusts the yield on equity securities and tax-exempt bonds to the fully taxable equivalent yield.

The property and casualty insurance segment’s increase in net investment income for the first sixnine months of 2018 as compared to the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects growth in the property and casualty insurance segment and very strong earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments. The property and casualty insurance segment’s overall yield on investments (net investment income as a percentage of average invested assets) was 4.14% for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to 3.69%3.73% for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of 0.450.41 percentage points due primarily to the higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments. The high returns from limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Property and Casualty Other Income and Expenses, Net
Other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations was a net expense of $16$23 million for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to net earnings of $2$5 million for the first sixnine months of 2017, a changean increase of $18 million (900%(360%). The table below details the items included in other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations (in millions):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Other income      
Income from the sale of real estate$
 $16
$
 $16
Other4
 4
8
 5
Total other income4
 20
8
 21
Other expenses      
Amortization of intangibles4
 4
7
 6
Other16
 14
24
 20
Total other expense20
 18
31
 26
Other income and expenses, net$(16) $2
$(23) $(5)
Income from the sale of real estate includes $13 million related to the sale of a hotel property in 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Annuity Segment — Results of Operations
AFG’s annuity operations contributed $224341 million in pretax earnings in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $181283 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $4358 million (24%20%). AFG’s annuity segment results for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017 reflect a 10% increase in average annuity investments (at amortized cost), higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments and the favorable impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (“FIAs”), partially offset by an unlocking charge in the first sixnine months of 2018 and the impact of lower investment yields due to the run-off of higher yielding investments. The high returns on limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods.

The fair value of derivatives related to FIAs was favorably impacted by higher than anticipated interest rates in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the negative impact of lower than anticipated interest rates in the first sixnine months of 2017,2017. The favorable impact of interest rates between periods was partially offset in the 2018 period by the negative impactsimpact of higher interest on the embedded derivative (from growth in the FIA business and higher interest rates) and higher than expected option costs.costs in the 2018 period. AFG monitors the major actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations throughout the year and conducts detailed reviews (“unlocking”) of its assumptions in the fourth quarter of each year. If changes in the economic environment of actual experience would cause material revisions to future estimates, these assumptions are updated (unlocked) in an interim quarter. Due to continued higher FIA option costs (resulting primarily from higher than expected risk-free rates), AFG unlocked its assumptions for option costs and interest rates in the second quarter of 2018, resulting in a net charge to earnings of $27 million.

The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its annuity operations for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (dollars in millions).
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Revenues:          
Net investment income$806
 $707
 14%$1,219
 $1,082
 13%
Other income:          
Guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees32
 28
 14%48
 43
 12%
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income21
 25
 (16%)32
 36
 (11%)
Total revenues859
 760
 13%1,299
 1,161
 12%
          
Costs and Expenses:          
Annuity benefits (*)442
 420
 5%664
 635
 5%
Acquisition expenses130
 99
 31%199
 153
 30%
Other expenses63
 60
 5%95
 90
 6%
Total costs and expenses635
 579
 10%958
 878
 9%
Earnings before income taxes$224
 $181
 24%$341
 $283
 20%
Detail of annuity earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Earnings before income taxes — before the impact of unlocking and derivatives related to FIAs$235
 $199
 18%$354
 $305
 16%
Unlocking(27) 
 %(27) 
 %
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs16
 (18) (189%)14
 (22) (164%)
Earnings before income taxes$224
 $181
 24%$341
 $283
 20%

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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


(*)Annuity benefits consisted of the following (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Interest credited — fixed$339
 $309
 10%$518
 $469
 10%
Interest credited — fixed component of variable annuities3
 3
 %4
 4
 %
Other annuity benefits:          
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve8
 8
 %13
 13
 %
Amortization of sales inducements10
 10
 %15
 14
 7%
Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve42
 33
 27%60
 51
 18%
Change in other benefit reserves19
 20
 (5%)29
 36
 (19%)
Total other annuity benefits79
 71
 11%117
 114
 3%
Total before impact of derivatives related to FIAs and unlocking421
 383
 10%639
 587
 9%
Derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:          
Embedded derivative mark-to-market19
 259
 (93%)242
 386
 (37%)
Equity option mark-to-market(52) (222) (77%)(271) (338) (20%)
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs(33) 37
 (189%)(29) 48
 (160%)
Unlocking54
 
 %54
 
 %
Total annuity benefits$442
 $420
 5%$664
 $635
 5%

See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity benefit expense in 2018.

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities (excludes variable annuity earnings)
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of the spreads for AFG’s fixed annuity operations (including fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuities):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost)$33,469
 $30,522
 10%$33,964
 $30,919
 10%
Average fixed annuity benefits accumulated33,747
 30,698
 10%34,240
 31,141
 10%
          
As % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (except as noted):          
Net investment income (as % of fixed annuity investments)4.79% 4.60%  4.76% 4.64%  
Interest credited — fixed(2.01%) (2.01%)  (2.02%) (2.01%)  
Net interest spread2.78% 2.59%  2.74% 2.63%  
          
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income0.10% 0.13%  0.10% 0.12%  
Other annuity benefit expenses, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees(0.28%) (0.29%)  (0.26%) (0.31%)  
Acquisition expenses(0.91%) (0.62%)  (0.86%) (0.63%)  
Other expenses(0.36%) (0.38%)  (0.37%) (0.38%)  
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities0.19% (0.24%)  0.11% (0.20%)  
Unlocking(0.16%) %  (0.11%) %  
Net spread earned on fixed annuities1.36% 1.19%  1.35% 1.23%  


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s net spread earned on fixed annuities:
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Net spread earned on fixed annuities — before the impact of unlocking and derivatives related to FIAs1.43% 1.31%1.41% 1.32%
Unlocking(0.16%) %(0.11%) %
Impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:      
Change in fair value of derivatives0.19% (0.24%)0.11% (0.20%)
Related impact on amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs (*)(0.10%) 0.12%(0.06%) 0.11%
Related impact on amortization of deferred sales inducements (*)% %% %
Net spread earned on fixed annuities1.36% 1.19%1.35% 1.23%
(*)An estimate of the related acceleration/deceleration of the amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and deferred sales inducements.

Annuity Net Investment Income
Net investment income for the first sixnine months of 2018 was $806 million1.22 billion compared to $707 million1.08 billion for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $99137 million (14%13%). This increase reflects the growth in AFG’s annuity business and higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments, partially offset by the impact of lower investment yields. The overall yield earned on investments in AFG’s fixed annuity operations, calculated as net investment income divided by average investment balances (at amortized cost), increased by 0.190.12 percentage points to 4.79%4.76% from 4.60%4.64% for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017. This increase in net investment yield reflects higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments, partially offset by (i) the investment of new premium dollars at lower yields as compared to the existing investment portfolio and (ii) the impact of the reinvestment of proceeds from maturity and redemption of higher yielding investments at the lower yields available in the financial markets. DuringThe high returns from limited partnerships and similar investments should not necessarily be expected to repeat in future periods. For the period from July 1, 2017, $4.9through September 30, 2018, $4.4 billion in annuity segment investments with an average yield of 5.14%5.01% were redeemed or sold while the investments purchased during 2017that period (with new premium dollars and the redemption/sale proceeds) had an average yield at purchase of 3.94%4.26%.

Annuity Interest Credited — Fixed
Interest credited — fixed for the first sixnine months of 2018 was $339$518 million compared to $309$469 million for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $30$49 million (10%). This increase reflects the impact of growth in the annuity business. The average interest rate credited to policyholders, calculated as interest credited divided by average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, wasincreased 0.01% percentage points to 2.02% from 2.01% in both the first sixnine months of 2018 andcompared to the first sixnine months of 2017.2017 due to higher crediting rates on new business.

Annuity Net Interest Spread
AFG’s net interest spread increased 0.190.11 percentage points to 2.78%2.74% from 2.59%2.63% in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 due primarily to higher earnings from limited partnerships and similar investments, partially offset by lower investment yields. Features included in current annuity offerings allow AFG to achieve its desired profitability at a lower net interest spread than historical product offerings. As a result, AFG expects its net interest spread to narrow in the future.

Annuity Policy Charges and Other Miscellaneous Income
Annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income, which consist primarily of surrender charges, amortization of deferred upfront policy charges (unearned revenue) and income from sales of real estate, were $21$32 million for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $25$36 million for the first sixnine months of 2017, a decrease of $4 million (16%(11%). Excluding the impact of a $1 million unlocking charge related to unearned revenue in the second quarter of 2018, annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income were $22$33 million in 2018 compared to $25$36 million in 2017, a decrease of $3 million (12%(8%). The first sixnine months of 2017 includes $1 million from the sale of real estate. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, excluding the impact of unlocking charges related to unearned revenue, annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income decreased 0.030.02 percentage points to 0.10% from 0.13%0.12% in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income in 2018.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Other Annuity Benefits, Net of Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefit Fees
Other annuity benefits, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees (excluding the impact of unlocking), for the first sixnine months of 2018 were $4769 million compared to $4371 million for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increasea decrease of $42 million (9%3%). As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these net expenses decreased 0.010.05 percentage points to 0.28%0.26% from 0.29%0.31% in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017. In addition to interest credited to policyholders’ accounts and the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, annuity benefits expense also includes the following expenses (in millions, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve$8
 $8
$13
 $13
Amortization of sales inducements10
 10
15
 14
Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve42
 33
60
 51
Change in other benefit reserves19
 20
29
 36
Other annuity benefits79
 71
117
 114
Offset guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees(32) (28)(48) (43)
Other annuity benefits, net$47
 $43
$69
 $71

As discussed under “Annuity Benefits Accumulated” in Note A — “Accounting Policies to the financial statements, guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserves are accrued for and modified using assumptions similar to those used in establishing and amortizing deferred policy acquisition costs. The guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve related to FIAs can be inversely impacted by the calculated FIA embedded derivative reserve as the value to policyholders of the guaranteed withdrawal benefits decreases when the benefit of stock market participation increases.

See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity benefit expense in 2018.

Annuity Acquisition Expenses
Annuity acquisition expenses for the first sixnine months of 2018 were $130$199 million compared to $99$153 million for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $31$46 million (31%(30%). Excluding the $28 million favorable impact on amortization of DPAC from the unlocking recorded in the second quarter of 2018, annuity acquisition expenses were $158$227 million for the first sixnine months of 2018, an increase of $59$74 million (60%(48%) compared to the first sixnine months of 2017, reflecting growth in the acceleration/business and the acceleration (in 2018) and deceleration (in 2017) of DPAC amortization related to changes in the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs and growth in the business.FIAs. Excluding the impact of the 2018 unlocking charge, AFG’s amortization of DPAC and commission expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated was 0.91%0.86% for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to 0.62%0.63% for the first sixnine months of 2017 and has generally ranged between 0.75% and 0.85%. Variances from the general range relate primarily to the impact of (i) material changes in interest rates or the stock market on AFG’s fixed-indexed annuity business, and (ii) differences in actual experience from actuarially projected estimates and assumptions. For example, the positive impact of higher than anticipated interest rates during the first sixnine months of 2018 on the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs (discussed below) resulted in a partially offsetting acceleration of the amortization of DPAC. In contrast, the negative impact of lower than anticipated interest rates during the first sixnine months of 2017 on the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs resulted in a partially offsetting deceleration of the amortization of DPAC.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The table below illustrates the estimated impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on annuity acquisition expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated (excluding the impact of unlocking):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Before the impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs on the amortization of DPAC0.81% 0.74%0.80% 0.74%
Impact of changes in fair value of derivatives related to FIAs on amortization of DPAC (*)0.10% (0.12%)0.06% (0.11%)
Annuity acquisition expenses as a % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated0.91% 0.62%0.86% 0.63%
(*)An estimate of the acceleration/deceleration of the amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs resulting from fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses in 2018. Unanticipated spread compression, decreases in the stock market, adverse mortality experience, and higher than expected lapse rates could lead to write-offs of DPAC or PVFP in the future.

Annuity Other Expenses
Annuity other expenses were $63$95 million for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $6090 million for the first sixnine months of 2017, an increase of $35 million (5%6%). Annuity other expenses represent primarily general and administrative expenses, as well as selling and issuance expenses that are not deferred. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these expenses were 0.36%decreased 0.01 percentage points to 0.37% from 0.38% for the first sixnine months of 2018 and 0.38% forcompared to the first sixnine months of 2017. ThisThe decrease in annuity other expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated is due primarily to growth in the business.

Change in Fair Value of Derivatives Related to Fixed-Indexed (Including Variable-Indexed) Annuities
AFG’s fixed-indexed (including variable indexed)variable-indexed) annuities provide policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market or other financial index. AFG attempts to mitigate the risk in the index-based component of these products through the purchase and sale of call and put options on the appropriate index. AFG’s strategy is designed so that the net change in the fair value of the call option assets and put option liabilities will generally offset the economic change in the net liability from the index participation. Both the index-based component of the annuities (an embedded derivative) and the related call and put options are considered derivatives that must be adjusted for changes in fair value through earnings each period. The change in the fair value of the embedded derivative includes an ongoing expense for interest accreted on the embedded derivative. The interest accreted in any period is generally based on the size of the embedded derivative and current interest rates. The fair values of these derivatives are impacted by actual and expected stock market performance and interest rates as well as other factors. For a list of other factors impacting the fair value of the index-basedembedded derivative component (embedded derivative) of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated, see Note C — “Fair Value Measurements to the financial statements.

Excluding the impact of the 2018 unlocking charge, the net change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities decreased annuity benefits by $33$29 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and increased annuity benefits by $37$48 million in the first sixnine months of 2017. The change in the fair value of these derivatives includes $47 million in the first nine months of 2018 and $19 million in the first nine months of 2017 in interest accreted on the embedded derivative (before DPAC amortization), an increase of $28 million (147%). AFG expects both the size of the embedded derivative and interest rates to rise, resulting in continued increases in interest on the embedded derivative. During the first sixnine months of 2018, the positive impact of higher than expected interest rates and strong stock market performance on the fair value of these derivatives was partially offset by the higher interest on the embedded derivative and the negative impact of higher than expected option costs. During the first nine months of 2017, the negative impact of lower than expected interest rates on the fair value of these derivatives was partially offset by the negative impact of higher than expected option costs. During the first six months of 2017, the positive impact of strong stock market performance on the fair value of these derivatives was more than offset by the negative impact of lower than anticipated interest rates.performance. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, this net expense improved 0.430.31 percentage points to a net expense reduction of 0.19%0.11% in the first sixnine months of 2018 from a net expense of 0.24%0.20% in the first sixnine months of 2017.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Fluctuations in interest rates and the stock market, among other factors, can cause volatility in the periodic measurement of fair value of the embedded derivative that management believes can be inconsistent with the long-term economics of these products. The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Earnings before income taxes — before unlocking and change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities$235
 $199
 18%$354
 $305
 16%
Unlocking(27) 
 %(27) 
 %
Impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:          
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities33
 (37) (189%)29
 (48) (160%)
Related impact on amortization of DPAC (*)(17) 19
 (189%)(15) 26
 (158%)
Earnings before income taxes$224
 $181
 24%$341
 $283
 20%
(*)An estimate of the related acceleration/deceleration of amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


As illustrated in the table above, the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, including the related impact on amortization of DPAC increased the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes by $16$14 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and decreased the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes by $18$22 million in the first sixnine months of 2017. The following table provides analysis of the primary factors impacting the change in the fair value of derivatives related to FIAs. Each factor is presented net of the estimated related impact on amortization of DPAC (dollars in millions).
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Interest on the embedded derivative liability$(15) $(7) 114%$(25) $(11) 127%
Changes in interest rates higher (lower) than expected39
 (28) (239%)37
 (38) (197%)
Change in the stock market, including volatility4
 14
 (71%)16
 20
 (20%)
Renewal option costs lower (higher) than expected(7) 3
 (333%)(7) 4
 (275%)
Other, including the impact of actual versus expected lapses(5) 
 %(7) 3
 (333%)
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs$16
 $(18) (189%)$14
 $(22) (164%)

See Annuity Unlocking below for a discussion of the impact that the unlocking of actuarial assumptions had on the change in the fair value of the embedded derivative liability in 2018.

Annuity Net Spread Earned on Fixed Annuities
AFG’s net spread earned on fixed annuities increased 0.170.12 percentage points to 1.36%1.35% from 1.19%1.23% in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 due primarily to the net impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives and related DPAC amortization offset discussed above and the 0.190.11 percentage points increase in AFG’s net interest spread, partially offset by the impact of the unlocking of actuarial assumptions discussed below.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Annuity Benefits Accumulated
Annuity premiums received and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in annuity benefits accumulated rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited and other benefits are charged to expense and decreases for surrender and other policy charges are credited to other income.

For certain products, annuity benefits accumulated also includes reserves for accrued persistency and premium bonuses, excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations (“EDAR”) and guaranteed withdrawal benefits. Annuity benefits accumulated also includes amounts advanced from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati. The following table is a progression of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated liability for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (in millions):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Beginning fixed annuity reserves$33,005
 $29,647
$33,005
 $29,647
Fixed annuity premiums (receipts)2,534
 2,541
3,906
 3,410
Surrenders, benefits and other withdrawals(1,333) (1,110)(2,040) (1,650)
Interest and other annuity benefit expenses:      
Interest credited339
 309
518
 469
Embedded derivative mark-to-market19
 259
242
 386
Change in other benefit reserves59
 58
88
 92
Unlocking55
 
55
 
Ending fixed annuity reserves$34,678
 $31,704
$35,774
 $32,354
      
Reconciliation to annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet: ��    
Ending fixed annuity reserves (from above)$34,678
 $31,704
$35,774
 $32,354
Impact of unrealized investment gains32
 128
8
 138
Fixed component of variable annuities176
 182
176
 179
Annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet$34,886
 $32,014
$35,958
 $32,671

Statutory Annuity Premiums
AFG’s annuity operations generated statutory premiums of $3.93 billion in the first nine months of 2018 compared to $3.43 billion in the first nine months of 2017, an increase of $493 million (14%). The following table summarizes AFG’s annuity sales (dollars in millions):
 Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change
Financial institutions single premium annuities — indexed$1,321
 $1,347
 (2%)
Financial institutions single premium annuities — fixed350
 559
 (37%)
Retail single premium annuities — indexed1,026
 751
 37%
Retail single premium annuities — fixed60
 55
 9%
Broker dealer single premium annuities — indexed936
 559
 67%
Broker dealer single premium annuities — fixed10
 6
 67%
Pension risk transfer57
 
 %
Education market — fixed and indexed annuities146
 133
 10%
Total fixed annuity premiums3,906
 3,410
 15%
Variable annuities19
 22
 (14%)
Total annuity premiums$3,925
 $3,432
 14%

Management attributes the 14% increase in annuity premiums in the first nine months of 2018 compared to the first nine months of 2017 to the introduction of new products, efforts to expand in the retail and broker dealer markets and an improving interest rate environment in 2018.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Statutory Annuity Premiums
AFG’s annuity operations generated statutory premiums of $2.55 billion in the first six months of 2018 compared to $2.56 billion in the first six months of 2017, a decrease of $9 million. The following table summarizes AFG’s annuity sales (dollars in millions):
 Six months ended June 30,  
2018 2017 % Change
Financial institutions single premium annuities — indexed$861
 $987
 (13%)
Financial institutions single premium annuities — fixed236
 477
 (51%)
Retail single premium annuities — indexed672
 532
 26%
Retail single premium annuities — fixed44
 37
 19%
Broker dealer single premium annuities — indexed614
 411
 49%
Broker dealer single premium annuities — fixed7
 5
 40%
Education market — fixed and indexed annuities100
 92
 9%
Total fixed annuity premiums2,534
 2,541
 %
Variable annuities13
 15
 (13%)
Total annuity premiums$2,547
 $2,556
 %

While annuity premiums were comparable in the first six months of 2018 and the first six months of 2017, annuity premiums in the second quarter of 2018 represent an increase of 22% compared to the first quarter of 2018, reflecting growth in all fixed annuity product lines and channels.

Annuity Unlocking
In the second quarter of 2018, AFG recorded a $27 million net charge related to its annuity business as a result of unlocking certain actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations, which impacted AFG’s financial statements as follows (in millions):
 Six months ended June 30, Nine months ended September 30,
 2018 2017 2018 2017
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income:        
Unearned revenue $(1) $
 $(1) $
Total revenues (1) 
 (1) 
Annuity benefits:        
Fixed-indexed annuities embedded derivative 44
 
 44
 
Sales inducements (1) 
 (1) 
Other reserves 11
 
 11
 
Total annuity benefits 54
 
 54
 
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses:        
Deferred policy acquisition costs (28) 
 (28) 
Total costs and expenses 26
 
 26
 
Net charge $(27) $
 $(27) $

See Annuity Unlocking under “Annuity Segment — Results of Operations” for the quarters ended June 30, 2018 and 2017 for a discussion of theThe net charge from the unlocking of actuarialannuity assumptions in the second quarter of 2018.2018 is due primarily to the unfavorable impact of higher projected option costs, partially offset by the favorable impact of an increase in projected net interest spreads on in-force business (due primarily to higher than previously anticipated reinvestment rates). Reinvestment rate assumptions are based primarily on 7-year and 10-year corporate bond yields. For the 2018 unlocking, AFG assumed a net reinvestment rate (net of default and expense assumptions) of 4.44% in the second half of 2018, grading up ratably to an ultimate net reinvestment rate of 5.55% in 2022 and beyond.

The table below compares the reinvestment rate assumed on assets purchased to directly support “fixed annuity benefits accumulated” in AFG’s fourth quarter unlockings for the next calendar year to the actual reinvestment rate achieved in that period (both net of investment expenses):
  First    
Unlocking Investment Reinvestment Rate
Year Period Assumed (a) Achieved
2014 2015 3.75% 4.27%
2015 2016 4.05% 4.27%
2016 2017 4.42% 3.95%
2017      2018 (b) 4.17% 4.48%
2018 July 2018 (c) 4.62% 4.57%
(a)Assumed reinvestment rates exclude default rates of 0.18% in each period.
(b)Reinvestment rate achieved is for the nine months ended September 30, 2018.
(c)Reinvestment rate achieved is for the three months ended September 30, 2018.

Management believes that these results over the last several years demonstrate that AFG’s investment rate assumptions are reasonable and prudent. During 2017, long-term interest rates were lower than anticipated and credit spreads narrowed, resulting in a lower achieved reinvestment rate than assumed in the 2016 unlocking. In addition to the reinvestment rates above, actual default rates in the first six months of 2018 and in 2017, 2016 and 2015 were lower than the long-term default rates of 0.18% assumed in the unlocking in each of the periods above.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Annuity Earnings before Income Taxes Reconciliation
The following table reconciles the net spread earned on AFG’s fixed annuities to overall annuity pretax earnings for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (in millions):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Earnings on fixed annuity benefits accumulated$229
 $183
$348
 $288
Earnings impact of investments in excess of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (*)(7) (4)(10) (8)
Variable annuity earnings2
 2
3
 3
Earnings before income taxes$224
 $181
$341
 $283

(*)
Net investment income (as a % of investments) of 4.79%4.76% and 4.60%4.64% for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017, respectively, multiplied by the difference between average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost) and average fixed annuity benefits accumulated in each period.

Holding Company, Other and Unallocated — Results of Operations   AFG’s net GAAP pretax loss outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations (excluding realized gains and losses) totaled $90$136 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $98$165 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, a decrease of $8$29 million (8%(18%). AFG’s net core pretax loss outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations (excluding realized gain and losses) totaled $90$127 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $91$130 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, a decrease of $1$3 million (1%(2%).

The following table details AFG’s GAAP and core loss before income taxes from operations outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations for the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018 and 2017 (dollars in millions):
Six months ended June 30,  Nine months ended September 30,  
2018 2017 % Change2018 2017 % Change
Revenues:          
Life, accident and health net earned premiums$12
 $11
 9%$18
 $17
 6%
Net investment income11
 17
 (35%)21
 24
 (13%)
Other income — P&C fees32
 29
 10%50
 46
 9%
Other income11
 13
 (15%)20
 22
 (9%)
Total revenues66
 70
 (6%)109
 109
 %
          
Costs and Expenses, excluding interest charges on borrowed money:          
Property and casualty insurance — commissions and other underwriting expenses10
 12
 (17%)17
 16
 6%
Life, accident and health benefits22
 15
 47%32
 21
 52%
Life, accident and health acquisition expenses2
 2
 %4
 3
 33%
Other expense — expenses associated with P&C fees22
 17
 29%33
 30
 10%
Other expenses (*)69
 71
 (3%)104
 104
 %
Costs and expenses, excluding interest charges on borrowed money125
 117
 7%190
 174
 9%
Core loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses and interest charges on borrowed money(59) (47) 26%(81) (65) 25%
Interest charges on borrowed money31
 44
 (30%)46
 65
 (29%)
Core loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses(90) (91) (1%)(127) (130) (2%)
Pretax non-core special A&E charges(9) (24) (63%)
Pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt
 (7) (100%)
 (11) (100%)
GAAP loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses$(90) $(98) (8%)$(136) $(165) (18%)

(*)Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $9 million and $24 million in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively, and a pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt of $7$11 million in the second quarter of 2017.2017 period.

Holding Company and Other — Life, Accident and Health Premiums, Benefits and Acquisition Expenses
AFG’s run-off long-term care and life insurance operations recorded net earned premiums of $12 million and related benefits and acquisition expenses of $24 million in the first six months of 2018 compared to net earned premiums of $11 million and related benefits and acquisition expenses of $17 million in the first six months of 2017. The $7 million (47%) increase in life, accident and health benefits reflects higher claims in the run-off life business.


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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Holding Company and Other — Life, Accident and Health Premiums, Benefits and Acquisition Expenses
AFG’s run-off long-term care and life insurance operations recorded net earned premiums of $18 million and related benefits and acquisition expenses of $36 million in the first nine months of 2018 compared to net earned premiums of $17 million and related benefits and acquisition expenses of $24 million in the first nine months of 2017. The $11 million (52%) increase in life, accident and health benefits reflects higher claims in both the run-off long-term care and run-off life insurance businesses.

Holding Company and Other — Net Investment Income
AFG recorded net investment income on investments held outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations of $11$21 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $1724 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, a decrease of $6$3 million (35%(13%). The parent company holds a small portfolio of securities that are carried at fair value through net investment income. These securities decreasedincreased in value by $2$1 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to an increase in value by $3$4 million in the first sixnine months of 2017.

Holding Company and Other — P&C Fees and Related Expenses
Summit, a workers’ compensation insurance subsidiary, collects fees from a small group of unaffiliated insurers for providing underwriting, policy administration and claims services. In addition, certain of AFG’s property and casualty insurance businesses collect fees from customers for ancillary services such as workplace safety programs and premium financing. In the first sixnine months of 2018, AFG collected $32$50 million in fees for these services compared to $29$46 million in the first sixnine months of 2017. Management views this fee income, net of the $22$33 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and $17$30 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, in expenses incurred to generate such fees, as a reduction in the cost of underwriting its property and casualty insurance policies. Consistent with internal management reporting, these fees and the related expenses are netted and recorded as a reduction of commissions and other underwriting expenses in AFG’s segmented results.

Holding Company and Other — Other Income
Other income in the table above includes $8$12 million and $9$14 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 and 2017, respectively, in management fees paid to AFG by the AFG-managed CLOs (AFG’s consolidated managed investment entities). The management fees are eliminated in consolidation — see the other income line in the Consolidate MIEs column under “Results of Operations — Segmented Statement of Earnings.” Excluding amounts eliminated in consolidation, AFG recorded other income outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations of $3$8 million in both the first sixnine months of 2018 and $4 million the first sixnine months of 2017.

Holding Company and Other — Other Expenses
Excluding the non-core special A&E charges and the non-core loss on retirement of debt discussed below, AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations recorded other expenses of $69$104 million in both the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $71 million inand the first sixnine months of 2017, a decrease of $2 million (3%). This decrease reflects the2017. The impact of lower holding company expenses related to certain incentive compensation plans and employee benefit plans that are tied to stock market performance in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to the first sixnine months of 2017 partiallywas offset by a $5 million charge to increase liabilities related to the environmental exposures of AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations in the first six monthssecond quarter of 2018.

Holding Company and Other — Interest Charges on Borrowed Money
AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its property and casualty insurance and annuity operations recorded interest expense of $3146 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $4465 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, a decrease of $1319 million (30%29%), due primarily to a lower weighted average interest rate on AFG’s outstanding debt.

The decrease in the weighted average interest rate for the first sixnine months of 2018 as compared to the first sixnine months of 2017 reflects the following financing transactions completed by AFG between April 1, 2017 and December 31, 2017:
Issued $350 million of 4.50% Senior Notes on June 2, 2017
Redeemed $230 million of 6-3/8% Senior Notes on June 26, 2017
Redeemed $125 million of 5-3/4% Senior Notes on August 25, 2017
Issued an additional $125 million of 3.50% Senior Notes on November 9, 2017
Issued an additional $240 million of 4.50% Senior Notes on November 9, 2017
Redeemed $350 million of 9-7/8% Senior Notes on December 11, 2017

Holding Company and Other — Special A&E Charges
See Holding Company and Other — Special A&E Charges under “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated” for the quarters ended September 30, 2018 and 2017 for a discussion of the $9 million and $24 million in non-core special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2018 and 2017, respectively.

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Holding Company and Other — Loss on Retirement of Debt
AFG wrote off unamortized debt issuance costs of $7 million related to the redemption of its $230 million outstanding 6-3/8% Senior Notes due 2042 at par value in June 2017.


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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued

its $125 million outstanding 5-3/4% Senior Notes due 2042 at par value in August 2017.

Consolidated Realized Gains (Losses) on Securities   AFG’s consolidated realized gains (losses) on securities, which are not allocated to segments, were a net losslosses of $6228 million in the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to a net gain of $111 million in the first sixnine months of 2017, a decreasean increase of $7327 million (664%2,700%). Realized gains (losses) on securities consisted of the following (in millions):
Six months ended June 30,Nine months ended September 30,
2018 20172018 2017
Realized gains (losses) before impairments:      
Disposals$9
 $32
$11
 $61
Change in the fair value of equity securities (*)(72) 
(39) 
Change in the fair value of derivatives(6) (3)(8) (4)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items8
 (3)11
 (5)
(61) 26
(25) 52
Impairment charges:      
Securities(1) (21)(3) (65)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items
 6

 12
(1) (15)(3) (53)
Realized gains (losses) on securities$(62) $11
$(28) $(1)
(*)
As discussed in Note A — “Accounting PoliciesInvestments,” beginning in January 2018, all equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method are carried at fair value through net earnings. This amount includes a $71$51 million net loss on securities that were still held at JuneSeptember 30, 2018.

The $72$39 million net realized loss from the change in the fair value of equity securities in the first sixnine months of 2018 includes losses of $15 million on investments in real estate investment trusts, $31$27 million related to banks and financing companies and $15$14 million on investments in media companies and gains of $18 million on investments in technology companies. AFG’s $21$65 million in impairment charges for the first sixnine months of 2017 consistconsists of $20$49 million on equity securities and $1$16 million on fixed maturities. Approximately $10$24 million in impairment charges in the first sixnine months of 2017 are relatedrelate to investments in pharmaceutical companies, $10 million relates to an investment in a media company and $5 million are on energy-related investments.the remainder relates primarily to investments in various industrial entities.

Consolidated Income Taxes   AFG’s consolidated provision for income taxes was $85$126 million for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to $128$146 million for the first sixnine months of 2017, a decrease of $43$20 million (34%(14%). See Note L — “Income Taxesto the financial statements for an analysis of items affecting AFG’s effective tax rate.

Consolidated Noncontrolling Interests   AFG’s consolidated net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests was a net loss of $6$7 million for the first sixnine months of 2018 compared to net earnings of $2 million for the first sixnine months of 2017. Losses attributable to noncontrolling interests for the first sixnine months of 2018 are related to losses at Neon, AFG’s United Kingdom-based Lloyd’s insurer. Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests in the first sixnine months of 2017 are related to the gain on the sale of a hotel property, which was owned by an 80%-owned subsidiary of Great American Insurance.

RECENTLY ADOPTED ACCOUNTING STANDARDS

Effective December 31, 2017, AFG adopted ASU 2018-02, which allowed the reclassification of amounts stranded in accumulated other comprehensive income from accounting for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 to retained earnings.

See Note A — “Accounting PoliciesInvestmentsto the financial statements for a discussion of accounting guidance adopted on January 1, 2018, which, among other things, requires equity investments that are not accounted for under the equity method of accounting to be measured at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net earnings, clarifies that the need for a

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


valuation allowance on a deferred tax asset related to available for sale securities should be evaluated with other deferred tax assets and modifies disclosure requirements for financial instruments.

ACCOUNTING STANDARDS TO BE ADOPTED

In February 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-02, Leases, which requires entities that lease assets for terms longer than one year to recognize the assets and liabilities for the rights and obligations created by those leases on the balance sheet based on the present value of cash flows. Qualitative and quantitative disclosures of the amount, timing and uncertainty of cash flows arising from leases will also be required. Although the guidance allows for early adoption, AFG expects to adopt the updated

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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


guidance effective January 1, 2019 (when it is required). Although the guidance will result in higher assets and higher liabilities from the recognition of assets and liabilities related to operating leases, it does not change the manner in which lease expense is recognized in the statement of earnings. Although management is currently evaluating the impact of this guidance, AFG does not expect itthe new guidance to have a material effect on its results of operations or financial position.

In June 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments – Credit Losses: Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments, which provides a new credit loss model for determining credit-related impairments for financial instruments measured at amortized cost (e.g. mortgage loans or reinsurance recoverables) and requires an entity to estimate the credit losses expected over the life of an exposure or pool of exposures. The estimate of expected credit losses considers historical information, current information, as well as reasonable and supportable forecasts, including estimates of prepayments. The expected credit losses, and subsequent increases or decreases in such losses, will be recorded immediately through realized gains (losses) as an allowance that is deducted from the amortized cost basis of the financial asset, with the net carrying value of the financial asset presented on the balance sheet at the amount expected to be collected. The updated guidance also amends the current other-than-temporary impairment model for available for sale debt securities by requiring the recognition of impairments relating to credit losses through an allowance account and limits the amount of credit loss to the difference between a security’s amortized cost basis and its fair value. Subsequent increases or decreases in expected credit losses will be recorded immediately in the income statement through realized gains (losses). AFG will be required to adopt this guidance effective January 1, 2020. AFG cannot estimate the impact that the updated guidance will have on its results of operations, financial position or liquidity until the updated guidance is adopted.

In August 2018, the FASB issued ASU 2018-12, Financial Services – Insurance: Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts, which changes the assumptions used to measure the liability for future policy benefits for traditional and limited pay contracts (e.g. life, accident and health benefits) from being locked in at inception to being updated at least annually and standardizes the liability discount rate to be used and updated each reporting period, requires the measurement of market risk benefits associated with deposit contracts (e.g. annuities) to be recorded at fair value, simplifies the amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs to a constant level basis over the expected life of the related contracts and requires enhanced disclosures. AFG will be required to adopt this guidance effective January 1, 2022. AFG cannot estimate the impact that the updated guidance will have on its results of operations, financial position or liquidity until the updated guidance is adopted.


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ITEM 3
Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk

As of JuneSeptember 30, 2018, there were no material changes to the information provided in Item 7A — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk of AFG’s 2017 Form 10-K.

ITEM 4
Controls and Procedures

AFG’s management, with participation of its Co-Chief Executive Officers and its Chief Financial Officer, has evaluated AFG’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Exchange Act Rule 13a-15) as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, AFG’s Co-CEOs and CFO concluded that the controls and procedures are effective. There have been no changes in AFG’s internal control over financial reporting during the secondthird fiscal quarter of 2018 that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, AFG’s internal control over financial reporting.

In the ordinary course of business, AFG and its subsidiaries routinely enhance their information systems by either upgrading current systems or implementing new systems. There has been no change in AFG’s business processes and procedures during the secondthird fiscal quarter of 2018 that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, AFG’s internal control over financial reporting.

PART II
OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 2
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities   AFG did not repurchase any shares of its Common Stock during the first sixnine months of 2018. There areAs of September 30, 2018, there were 4,132,838 remaining shares that may be repurchased under the Plans authorized by AFG’s Board of Directors in December 2014 and February 2016. Between October 1, 2018 and November 6, 2018, AFG repurchased 12,500 shares of its Common Stock at an average price of $99.48 per share.

AFG acquired 23,8822,210 shares of its Common Stock (at an average of $112.04$111.31 per share) in August 2018 and an additional 24,310 shares (at an average of $111.96 per share) in the first quartersix months of 2018, 32 shares (at $111.83 per share) in May 2018 and 396 shares (at $107.23 per share) in June 2018 in connection with its stock incentive plans.
ITEM 5
Other Information

Disclosure of Certain Activities Under Section 13(r) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934   Section 13(r) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Section 13(r)”), requires a registrant to disclose in its annual or quarterly reports whether it or an affiliate knowingly engaged in certain activities, transactions or dealings related to Iran during the period covered by the report. Many of the activities, transactions and dealings that are required to be reported under Section 13(r) were previously subject to U.S. sanctions or prohibited by applicable local law. On January 16, 2016, the United States and the European Union eased sanctions against Iran pursuant to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and many of the reportable activities, transactions and dealings under Section 13(r) are no longer subject to U.S. sanctions and no longer prohibited by applicable local law.

Certain of the Company’s subsidiaries located outside the United States subscribe to insurance policies that provide insurance coverage to vessels owned by international shipping and marine entities with vessels that travel worldwide. As a result, the insurance policies may be called upon to respond to claims involving or that have exposure to Iranian petroleum resources, refined petroleum, and petrochemical industries. For example, certain of the Company’s non-U.S. subsidiaries participate in global marine hull and war policies that provide coverage for damage to vessels navigating into and out of ports worldwide, which could include Iran.

For the sixnine months ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018, the Company is not aware of any additional premium with respect to underwriting insurance or reinsurance activities reportable under Section 13(r). Should any such risks have entered into the stream of

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stream of commerce covered by these insurance or reinsurance activities, the Company believes that the premiums associated with such business would be immaterial.

ITEM 6
Exhibits
 
Number Exhibit Description  
   
   
   
   
   
101 The following financial information from American Financial Group’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended JuneSeptember 30, 2018, formatted in XBRL (Extensible Business Reporting Language):  
         (i) Consolidated Balance Sheet  
        (ii) Consolidated Statement of Earnings  
       (iii) Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income  
       (iv) Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity  
        (v) Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows  
       (vi) Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements  
     
     
 


Signature
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.

 American Financial Group, Inc.
    
August 3,November 8, 2018By: /s/ Joseph E. (Jeff) Consolino
   Joseph E. (Jeff) Consolino
   Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

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