0001273813ago:FinancialGuaranteeVariableInterestEntitiesMemberus-gaap:MeasurementInputDefaultRateMembersrt:MaximumMemberus-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Memberus-gaap:IncomeApproachValuationTechniqueMember2023-01-012023-12-31
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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q
ýQUARTERLY REPORT UNDER SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the Quarterly Period Ended September 30, 2017March 31, 2024
Or
or
oTRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the transition Period from              to  
Commission File No. 001-32141
AG_300 - Logo.jpg
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) 
Bermuda98-0429991
Bermuda98-0429991
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(I.R.S. employer
of incorporation)identification no.)
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08,
Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)
(441) 279-5700
(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class:Trading Symbol(s)Name of exchange on which registered
Common Shares$0.01 par value per shareAGONew York Stock Exchange
Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. 6.125% Senior Notes due 2028 (and the related guarantee of Registrant)AGO/28New York Stock Exchange
Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. 3.150% Senior Notes due 2031 (and the related guarantee of Registrant)AGO/31New York Stock Exchange
Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. 3.600% Senior Notes due 2051 (and the related guarantee of Registrant)AGO/51New York Stock Exchange
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.   Yes x No o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files).   Yes x No o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See definition of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and "emerging“emerging growth company"company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
Large accelerated filerx
Accelerated filero
Non-accelerated filero
Smaller reporting companyo
(Do not check if a smaller reporting company)
Emerging growth companyo
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. o
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes No  
Yes o No x
The number of registrant’s Common Shares ($0.01 par value) outstanding as of November 1, 2017May 6, 2024 was 117,453,84954,442,902 (includes 50,22521,413 unvested restricted shares).



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ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

INDEX TO FORM 10-Q
Page
 



Table of Contents
PART I.    FINANCIAL INFORMATION
 
ITEM 1.FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

ITEM 1.    FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Assured Guaranty Ltd.


Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)(Unaudited)

(dollars in millions except per share and share amounts)data)

As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
Assets  
Investments:  
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value, net of allowance for credit loss of $67 and $77 (amortized cost of $6,553 and $6,746)$6,091 $6,307 
Fixed-maturity securities, trading, at fair value272 318 
Short-term investments, at fair value1,649 1,661 
Other invested assets (includes $4 and $3, at fair value)875 829 
Total investments8,887 9,115 
Cash115 97 
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable1,450 1,468 
Deferred acquisition costs164 161 
Salvage and subrogation recoverable295 298 
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets (includes $167 and $174, at fair value)167 328 
Assets of consolidated investment vehicles (includes $353 and $331, at fair value)377 366 
Other assets (includes $123 and $123, at fair value)713 706 
Total assets$12,168 $12,539 
Liabilities  
Unearned premium reserve$3,612 $3,658 
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve307 376 
Long-term debt1,695 1,694 
Credit derivative liabilities, at fair value43 53 
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities, at fair value (with recourse $389 and $543, without recourse $10 and $11)399 554 
Other liabilities430 439 
Total liabilities6,486 6,774 
Commitments and contingencies (Notes 3, 7 and 11)
Shareholders’ equity
Common shares ($0.01 par value, 500,000,000 shares authorized; 55,081,584 and 56,217,305 shares issued and outstanding)
Retained earnings6,014 6,070 
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax of $(72) and $(67)(387)(359)
Deferred equity compensation
Total shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.5,629 5,713 
Nonredeemable noncontrolling interests (Note 8)53 52 
Total shareholders’ equity5,682 5,765 
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity$12,168 $12,539 
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
Assets 
  
Investment portfolio: 
  
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value (amortized cost of $10,045 and $9,974)$10,546
 $10,233
Short-term investments, at fair value949
 590
Other invested assets96
 162
Total investment portfolio11,591
 10,985
Cash72
 118
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable922
 576
Ceded unearned premium reserve108
 206
Deferred acquisition costs105
 106
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses39
 80
Salvage and subrogation recoverable497
 365
Credit derivative assets3
 13
Deferred tax asset, net135
 497
Current income tax receivable72
 12
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets, at fair value707
 876
Other assets398
 317
Total assets$14,649
 $14,151
Liabilities and shareholders’ equity 
  
Unearned premium reserve$3,597
 $3,511
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve1,326
 1,127
Reinsurance balances payable, net45
 64
Long-term debt1,292
 1,306
Credit derivative liabilities305
 402
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities with recourse, at fair value657
 807
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities without recourse, at fair value111
 151
Other liabilities438
 279
Total liabilities7,771
 7,647
Commitments and contingencies (See Note 14)
 
Common stock ($0.01 par value, 500,000,000 shares authorized; 117,937,242 and 127,988,230 shares issued and outstanding)1
 1
Additional paid-in capital637
 1,060
Retained earnings5,913
 5,289
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax of $148 and $70326
 149
Deferred equity compensation1
 5
Total shareholders’ equity6,878
 6,504
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity$14,649
 $14,151


The accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.


Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)(Unaudited)
 
(dollars in millions except per share amounts)data)

Three Months Ended March 31,
 20242023
Revenues
Net earned premiums$119 $81 
Net investment income84 81 
Asset management fees— 26 
Net realized investment gains (losses)(2)
Fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives10 15 
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities(10)(16)
Fair value gains (losses) on financial guaranty variable interest entities(3)(5)
Fair value gains (losses) on consolidated investment vehicles22 58 
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement(12)20 
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities26 (2)
Other income (loss)27 
Total revenues245 283 
Expenses
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (benefit)(1)
Interest expense23 21 
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
Employee compensation and benefit expenses58 82 
Other operating expenses39 55 
Total expenses125 165 
Income (loss) before income taxes and equity in earnings (losses) of investees120 118 
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees24 
Income (loss) before income taxes144 120 
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes31 23 
Net income (loss)113 97 
Less: Noncontrolling interests16 
Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.$109 $81 
Earnings per share:
Basic$1.94 $1.37 
Diluted$1.89 $1.34 

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.
2
 Three Months Ended September 30, Nine Months Ended September 30,
 2017 2016 2017 2016
Revenues       
Net earned premiums$186
 $231
 $512
 $628
Net investment income99
 94
 322
 291
Net realized investment gains (losses):       
Other-than-temporary impairment losses(20) (4) (23) (32)
Less: portion of other-than-temporary impairment loss recognized in other comprehensive income(7) 1
 6
 (6)
Net impairment loss(13) (5) (29) (26)
Other net realized investment gains (losses)20
 3
 83
 21
Net realized investment gains (losses)7
 (2) 54
 (5)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:       
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements(1) 15
 19
 47
Net unrealized gains (losses)59
 6
 87
 (23)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives58
 21
 106
 24
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities(4) (23) (4) (50)
Fair value gains (losses) on financial guaranty variable interest entities3
 (11) 25
 11
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
 259
 58
 259
Other income (loss)274
 (3) 385
 49
Total revenues623
 566
 1,458
 1,207
Expenses       
Loss and loss adjustment expenses223
 (9) 354
 183
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs5
 4
 13
 13
Interest expense24
 26
 73
 77
Other operating expenses58
 65
 183
 188
Total expenses310
 86
 623
 461
Income (loss) before income taxes313
 480
 835
 746
Provision (benefit) for income taxes       
Current(148) 18
 (102) 80
Deferred253
 (17) 259
 (18)
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes105
 1
 157
 62
Net income (loss)$208
 $479
 $678
 $684
        
Earnings per share:       
Basic$1.75
 $3.63
 $5.56
 $5.10
Diluted$1.72
 $3.60
 $5.48
 $5.06
Dividends per share$0.1425
 $0.13
 $0.4275
 $0.39

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss) (Unaudited)
(in millions)
 Three Months Ended March 31,
 20242023
Net income (loss)$113 $97 
Change in net unrealized gains (losses) on:
Investments with no credit impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $(5) and $14(29)89 
Investments with credit impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $0 and $1
Change in net unrealized gains (losses) on investments(28)94 
Change in instrument-specific credit risk on financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities with recourse, net of tax provision (benefit)(1)(1)
Other, net of tax provision (benefit)
Other comprehensive income (loss)(28)95 
Comprehensive income (loss)85 192 
Less: Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests16 
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.$81 $176 
 
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.


Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (unaudited)Shareholders’ Equity (Unaudited)

(dollars in millions)millions, except share data)

For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2024
 Three Months Ended September 30, Nine Months Ended September 30,
 2017 2016 2017 2016
Net income (loss)$208
 $479
 $678
 $684
Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during the period on:       
Investments with no other-than-temporary impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $10, $(14), $63 and $4827
 (33) 133
 146
Investments with other-than-temporary impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $(7), $8, $44 and $(5)(15) 13
 81
 (10)
Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during the period, net of tax12
 (20) 214
 136
Less: reclassification adjustment for gains (losses) included in net income (loss), net of tax provision (benefit) of $3, $(1), $29 and $(1)4
 0
 52
 (1)
Change in net unrealized gains (losses) on investments8
 (20) 162
 137
Other, net of tax provision3
 (5) 15
 (16)
Other comprehensive income (loss)$11
 $(25) $177
 $121
Comprehensive income (loss)$219
 $454
 $855
 $805

Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.
 Common Shares OutstandingCommon 
Shares
Par Value
Retained EarningsAccumulated
Other
Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Deferred
Equity Compensation
TotalNonredeemable Noncontrolling Interests
Shareholders’ Equity
As of December 31, 202356,217,305 $1 $6,070 $(359)$1 $5,713 $52 $5,765 
Net income— — 109 — — 109 113 
Dividends ($0.31 per share)— — (19)— — (19)— (19)
Common shares repurchases(1,539,278)— (131)— — (131)— (131)
Share-based compensation403,557 — (15)— — (15)— (15)
Distributions— — — — — — (3)(3)
Other comprehensive loss— — — (28)— (28)— (28)
As of March 31, 202455,081,584 $1 $6,014 $(387)$1 $5,629 $53 $5,682 


For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2023

Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.
 Common Shares OutstandingCommon 
Shares
Par Value
Retained EarningsAccumulated
Other
Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Deferred
Equity Compensation
TotalNonredeemable Noncontrolling Interests
Shareholders’ Equity
As of December 31, 202259,013,040 $1 $5,577 $(515)$1 $5,064 $228 $5,292 
Net income— — 81 — — 81 16 97 
Dividends ($0.28 per share)— — (18)— — (18)— (18)
Contributions— — — — — — 
Common shares repurchases(36,369)— (2)— — (2)— (2)
Share-based compensation297,441 — — — — — — — 
Distributions— — — — — — (52)(52)
Other comprehensive income— — — 95 — 95 — 95 
As of March 31, 202359,274,112 $1 $5,638 $(420)$1 $5,220 $195 $5,415 



The accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.


Condensed Consolidated StatementStatements of Shareholders’ Equity (unaudited)Cash Flows (Unaudited)

(in millions)
 
For the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2017
 Three Months Ended March 31,
 20242023
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities$(74)$312 
Cash flows from investing activities:  
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale:  
Purchases(321)(225)
Sales359 455 
Maturities and paydowns165 129 
Short-term investments with original maturities of over three months:
Purchases— (12)
Sales— 
Maturities and paydowns15 
Net sales (purchases) of short-term investments with original maturities of less than three months(460)
Sales of fixed-maturity securities, trading72 — 
Paydowns of financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets
Purchases of and contributions to other invested assets(56)(10)
Sales of and return of capital from other invested assets17 
Other(1)(1)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities253 (94)
Cash flows from financing activities:  
Dividends paid(19)(18)
Repurchases of common shares(129)(2)
Net paydowns of financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities(148)(9)
Other(28)(15)
Cash flows from consolidated investment vehicles:
Repayment of warehouse financing debt— (152)
Borrowing (payment) under credit facilities— (30)
Distributions to noncontrolling interests from consolidated investment vehicles(3)(70)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities(327)(296)
Effect of foreign exchange rate changes(1)
Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash(149)(77)
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at beginning of period286 207 
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of period$137 $130 

(dollars in millions, except share data)continued on next page)




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 Common Shares Outstanding  
Common 
Stock
Par Value
 
Additional
Paid-in
Capital
 Retained Earnings 
Accumulated
Other
Comprehensive Income
 
Deferred
Equity Compensation
 
Total
Shareholders’ Equity
Balance at
December 31, 2016
127,988,230
  $1
 $1,060
 $5,289
 $149
 $5
 $6,504
Net income
  
 
 678
 
 
 678
Dividends ($0.4275 per share)
  
 
 (53) 
 
 (53)
Common stock repurchases(10,734,653)  0
 (431) 
 
 
 (431)
Share-based compensation and other683,665
  0
 8
 
 
 (4) 4
Other comprehensive income
  
 
 
 177
 
 177
Other
  
 
 (1) 
 
 (1)
Balance at
September 30, 2017
117,937,242
  $1
 $637
 $5,913
 $326
 $1
 $6,878
Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (Unaudited) - (Continued)

(in millions)
Three Months Ended March 31,
20242023
Supplemental cash flow information
Interest paid on long-term debt$22 $10 
Supplemental disclosure of non-cash activities:
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale, received as salvage$— $
Contributions from noncontrolling interests— 
Distributions to noncontrolling interests— 
Distributions from equity method investments— 
As of
March 31, 2024March 31, 2023
Reconciliation of cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash to the condensed consolidated balance sheets:
Cash$115 $118 
Cash and cash equivalents of consolidated investment vehicles (See Note 8)22 (13)
Cash (included in assets held for sale)— 25 
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at the end of period$137 $130 


The accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.


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Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (unaudited)
(in millions)
 Nine Months Ended September 30,
 2017 2016
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities$354
 $(189)
Investing activities 
  
Fixed-maturity securities: 
  
Purchases(1,615) (1,028)
Sales1,128
 877
Maturities689
 861
Net sales (purchases) of short-term investments(240) 80
Net proceeds from paydowns on financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets117
 590
Acquisition of MBIA UK, net of cash acquired (see Note 2)95
 
Acquisition of CIFG, net of cash acquired
 (435)
Other58
 (12)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities232
 933
Financing activities 
  
Dividends paid(53)
(52)
Repurchases of common stock(431)
(190)
Repurchases of common stock to pay withholding taxes(13) (2)
Net paydowns of financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities(124) (567)
Repayment/ extinguishment of long-term debt(29) (2)
Proceeds from option exercises5
 6
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities(645) (807)
Effect of foreign exchange rate changes4
 (4)
Increase (decrease) in cash and restricted cash(55) (67)
Cash and restricted cash at beginning of period (see Note 10)127
 166
Cash and restricted cash at end of period (see Note 10)$72
 $99
Supplemental cash flow information 
  
Cash paid (received) during the period for: 
  
Income taxes$3
 $2
Interest$53
 $55

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited)(Unaudited)

September 30, 2017

1.    Business and Basis of Presentation
1.Business and Basis of Presentation
 
Business
 
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL and, together with its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty or the Company) is a Bermuda-based holding company that provides, through its wholly owned operating subsidiaries, credit protection products to the United States (U.S.) and internationalnon-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. TheAssured Guaranty also participates in the asset management business.

Insurance

Through its insurance subsidiaries, the Company applies its credit underwriting judgment, risk management skills and capital markets experience primarily to offer financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. If an obligor defaults on a scheduled payment due on an obligation, including a scheduled principal or interest payment (debt(collectively, debt service), the Company is required under its unconditional and irrevocable financial guaranty to pay the amount of the shortfall to the holder of the obligation. The Company markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities as well as to investors in such obligations. The Company guarantees obligations issued principally in the U.S. and the United Kingdom (U.K.), and also guarantees obligations issued in other countries and regions, including Australia and Western Europe. The Company also provides other forms ofspecialty insurance that are in lineand reinsurance on transactions with its risk profile and benefit from its underwriting experience.

In the past, the Company sold credit protection by issuing policies that guaranteed payment obligations under credit derivatives, primarily credit default swaps (CDS). Contracts accounted for as credit derivatives are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s obligation to make loss payments areprofiles similar to those forof its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty insurance contracts.form.

Asset Management

Until July 1, 2023, the Company served as an investment advisor to primarily collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and opportunity funds, through Assured Investment Management LLC (AssuredIM LLC) and its investment management affiliates (together with AssuredIM LLC, AssuredIM). Beginning July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management, LP (Sound Point, LP) and certain of its investment management affiliates (together with Sound Point, LP, Sound Point), as described below.
On July 1, 2023, Assured Guaranty contributed to Sound Point, LP most of its asset management business, other than that conducted by Assured Healthcare Partners LLC (AHP) (AssuredIM Contributed Business), as contemplated by the transaction agreement entered into with Sound Point on April 5, 2023 (Transaction Agreement). Assured Guaranty received, subject to certain potential post-closing adjustments, approximately 30% of the common interests in Sound Point, LP, and certain other interests in Sound Point.

In addition, in accordance with the terms of a letter agreement (Letter Agreement), effective July 1, 2023 Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and Assured Guaranty Corp. (collectively, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries) (i) engaged Sound Point as their sole alternative credit manager and (ii) transitioned to Sound Point the management of certain existing alternative investments and related commitments. The Company’s credit derivativeLetter Agreement also provides that, within the first two years of Sound Point’s engagement, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries, including through their investment subsidiary AG Asset Strategies LLC (AGAS), would, subject to regulatory approval, cure terms and other terms of the Letter Agreement, make new investments in funds, other vehicles and separately managed accounts managed by Sound Point which, when aggregated with the alternative investments and commitments transitioned from AssuredIM and any reinvestments (collectively, Sound Point Investments), and investments made by other Assured Guaranty affiliates, will total $1 billion. The Letter Agreement contemplates a long-term investment partnership between Sound Point and Assured Guaranty, whereby the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries have agreed to reinvest all returns of capital from Sound Point Investments for a period of 15 years, until July 1, 2038. Similarly, the Letter Agreement provides for reinvestment by the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries of all gains and dividends from Sound Point Investments for the first two years of Sound Point’s engagement, and reinvestment of half of all such gains and dividends thereafter until July 1, 2033 (the transactions are governedcontemplated under the Transaction Agreement and the Letter Agreement, the Sound Point Transaction). On July 1, 2028, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries may choose to reduce the amounts invested or required to be reinvested in certain Sound Point Investments under the Letter Agreement, subject to adjustment in Assured Guaranty’s portion of its ownership interest in Sound Point. To the extent not required to be reinvested by International Swapsthe Letter Agreement, all proceeds from Sound Point Investments received in accordance with their operative investment documents can be distributed to the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries. See Note 7, Investments.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
In July 2023, Assured Guaranty sold all of its equity interests in AHP, which manages healthcare funds, to an entity owned and Derivative Association, Inc. (ISDA) documentation. controlled by the managing partner of AHP (AHP Transaction). In connection with the AHP Transaction, the Company agreed to remain a strategic investor in certain AHP managed funds, is retaining its portion of carried interest in certain AHP managed funds, and received other consideration.

Upon closing of the Sound Point Transaction and the AHP Transaction, the Company deconsolidated most of the corresponding AssuredIM entities (which had previously been classified as held for sale) and reported an investment in Sound Point that is accounted for under the equity method. In connection with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, the Company reevaluated its consolidation conclusion for each consolidated investment vehicle (CIV) and deconsolidated all but three CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. After the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, the Company continues to consolidate the general partner of a fund that Sound Point now manages and may report performance fees reported in “other income.”

Prior to the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, the Company received management fees, as well as performance fees, incentive allocations or carried interest (collectively referred to as performance fees) in exchange for AssuredIM providing investment advisory services to manage investment funds and CLOs. Prior to the Sound Point Transaction and the AHP Transaction, these fees were reported in “asset management fees” in the condensed consolidated financial statements.

Assets and Liabilities Held For Sale

The Company has not entered into any new CDS in order to sell credit protectiondesignated certain assets and liabilities supporting the Insurance segment as held for sale in the U.S. since the beginningfirst quarter of 2009, when regulatory guidelines2023. The held for sale assets and liabilities were issued that limited the terms under which such protection could be sold. The capital$28 million (reported in “other assets”) and margin requirements applicable under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act also contributed to the Company not entering into such new CDS$3 million (reported in the U.S. since 2009. The Company actively pursues opportunities to terminate existing CDS, which terminations have the effect“other liabilities”), respectively, as of reducing future fair value volatility in income and/or reducing rating agency capital charges.March 31, 2024.


Basis of Presentation
 
The unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) and, in the. In management’s opinion, of management, reflect all material adjustments that are of a normal recurring nature, necessary for a fair statement of the financial condition, results of operations and cash flows of the Company, andincluding its consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs) for, are reflected in the periods presented.presented and are of a normal, recurring nature. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities as of the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates.

These unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements are as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and cover the three-month period ended September 30, 2017 (Third Quarter 2017),March 31, 2024 (first quarter 2024) and the three-month period ended September 30, 2016 (Third Quarter 2016), the nine-month period ended September 30, 2017 (Nine Months 2017) and the nine-month period ended September 30, 2016 (Nine Months 2016)March 31, 2023 (first quarter 2023). Certain financial information that is normally included in annual financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP, but is not required for interim reporting purposes, has been condensed or omitted. The year-end condensed consolidated balance sheet data was derived from audited financial statements, except Note 18, Subsidiary Information, which reflects transfers of businesses between entities within the consolidated group that occurred inbut does not include all disclosures required by GAAP. Certain prior year balances have been reclassified to conform to the current reporting period consistently for all prior periods presented.period’s presentation.

    
The unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements include the accounts of AGL, its direct and indirect subsidiaries, and its consolidated VIEs.financial guaranty VIEs (FG VIEs) and CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. Intercompany accounts and transactions between and among all consolidated entities have been eliminated. Certain prior year balances have been reclassified to conform to the current year's presentation.All amounts are reported in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise specified.
 
These unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements included in AGL’sthe Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016,2023 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC)(SEC).


The Company'sCompany’s principal insurance company subsidiaries are:


Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM), domiciled in New York;
Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC), domiciled in New York;
Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC), domiciled in Maryland;
Assured Guaranty (Europe) plc (AGE)UK Limited (AGUK), organized in the U.K.; and
8

Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Assured Guaranty (Europe) SA (AGE), organized in France;
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re), domiciled in Bermuda; and
Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. (AGRO), domiciled in Bermuda.

The Company’s organizational structure includes variousU.S. Insurance Subsidiaries jointly own an investment subsidiary, AGAS, which invests in funds managed by Sound Point, AHP, and, prior to July 1, 2023, AssuredIM (Sound Point and AHP funds, some of which were formerly known as AssuredIM funds).

AGL directly or indirectly owns several holding companies, two of which - Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and AGMHAssured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) (collectively the U.S. Holding Companies) - have public debt outstanding. Please refer to Note 15, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities and Note 18, Subsidiary Information.


The Company is actively working to combine the operations of its European subsidiaries, AGE, Assured Guaranty (UK) plc (AGUK), Assured Guaranty (London) plc (AGLN) and CIFG Europe S.A. (CIFGE), through a multi-step transaction, which ultimately is expected to result in AGUK, AGLN and CIFGE transferring their insurance portfolios to and merging with and into AGE. As a preparatory step for the merger, AGE, AGUK and AGLN were re-registered as public limited companies on June 1, 2017. As a further preparatory step, AGUK, AGLN and CIFGE were sold by AGC to AGM and then contributed by AGM to AGE on June 26, 2017. While the Company and its European subsidiaries have received certain regulatory approvals, the combination is subject to further regulatory and court approvals. As a result, the Company cannot predict whether, or when, such combination will be completed.

AdoptedRecent Accounting Standards Not Yet Adopted


Statement of Cash Flows

In November 2016,2023, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-18, Statement of Cash Flows2023-07, Segment Reporting (Topic 230)280): Restricted Cash (a consensus of the Emerging Issues Task Force), which addresses the presentation of changes in restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents in the statement of cash flows with the objective of reducing the existing diversity in practice. Under the ASU, entities are required to show the changes in the total of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents in the statement of cash flows.  As a result, entities will no longer present transfers between cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents in the statement of cash flows.  When cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents are presented in more than one line item on the balance sheet, the ASU requires a reconciliation be presented either on the face of the statement of cash flows or in the notes to the financial statements showing the totals in the statement of cash flows to the related captions in the balance sheet. The ASU was adopted on January 1, 2017 and was applied retrospectively. The required reconciliation is shown in Note 10, Investments and Cash.

In August 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-15, Statement of Cash Flows (Topic 230): Classification of Certain Cash Receipts and Cash Payments (a consensus of the Emerging Issues Task Force), which addresses eight specific cash flow issues with the objective of reducing the existing diversity in practice. The ASU was adopted on January 1, 2017 and did not have an effect on the Company’s consolidated statements of cash flows for the periods presented.

Share-Based Payments

In March 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-09, Compensation - Stock Compensation (Topic 718) - Improvements to Employee Share-Based Payment, which simplifies several aspects of the accounting for employee share-based payment transactions, including the accounting for income taxes, forfeitures, and statutory tax withholding requirements, as well as classification in the statement of cash flows.  The new guidance requires all income tax effects of awards to be recognized in the income statement when the awards vest or are settled. It also allows an employer to repurchase more of an employee’s shares than it previously could for tax withholding purposes without triggering liability accounting and to make a policy election to account for forfeitures as they occur. The ASU was adopted January 1, 2017 with no material effect on the consolidated financial statements.


Future Application of Accounting Standards

Income Taxes

In October 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-16, Income Taxes (Topic 740) - Intra-Entity Transfers of Assets Other Than Inventory, which removes the current prohibition against immediate recognition of the current and deferred income tax effects of intra-entity transfers of assets other than inventory.  Under the ASU, the selling (transferring) entity is required to recognize a current income tax expense or benefit upon transfer of the asset.  Similarly, the purchasing (receiving) entity is required to recognize a deferred tax asset or deferred tax liability, as well as the related deferred tax benefit or expense, upon receipt of the asset.  The ASU is effective for annual periods beginning after December 15, 2017, including interim periods within those annual periods, and early adoption is permitted.  The ASU’s amendments are to be applied on a modified retrospective basis recognizing the effects in retained earnings as of the beginning of the year of adoption.  The Company does not expect this ASU to have a material effect on its consolidated financial statements.

Financial Instruments
In January 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-01, Financial Instruments - Overall (Subtopic 825-10) - Recognition and Measurement of Financial Assets and Financial LiabilitiesReportable Segment Disclosures. The amendments in this ASU are intended to make targeted improvements to GAAP by addressing certain aspects of recognition, measurement, presentation, andrequire disclosure of financial instruments.

Undersignificant segment expenses regularly provided to the ASU,chief operating decision maker (CODM), extend certain equity securities will needannual disclosures to interim periods, and permit more than one measure of segment profit or loss to be accounted for at fair value with changesreported under certain conditions. This ASU is effective in fair value recognized through net income instead of other comprehensive income (OCI).fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2023, and interim periods within fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2024. Early adoption is permitted. The Company does not expect thatwill adopt this ASU during the amendment relatedfourth quarter of 2024 and apply its amendments retrospectively to certain equity securities will have a material effect onall prior periods presented in its consolidated financial statements.


Another amendment pertainsIn December 2023, FASB issued ASU 2023-09, Income Taxes (Topic 740): Improvements to liabilities that an entity has elected to measure at fair value in accordance withIncome Tax Disclosures. The amendments require enhanced annual disclosures regarding the fair value option for financial instruments. For these liabilities, the portion of fair value change related to instrument specific credit risk will be separately presented in OCI as opposed to therate reconciliation and income statement. The Company elected the fair value option to account for its consolidated FG VIEs. The Company is evaluating the effect that the ASU will have on its consolidated FG VIEs. 
Thetaxes paid. This ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017, including interim2024. The Company will apply the amendments in this ASU prospectively to all annual periods within those fiscal years. Entities will be required to record a cumulative-effect adjustment to the statement of financial position as of the beginning of the fiscal year in which the guidance is adopted. 

Premium Amortization on Purchased Callable Debt Securities

In March 2017, the FASB issued ASU 2017-08, Receivables-Nonrefundable Fees and Other Costs (Topic 310-20) - Premium Amortization on Purchased Callable Debt Securities.  This ASU shortens the amortization period for the premium on certain purchased callable debt securities to the earliest call date.  This ASU has no effect on the accounting for purchased callable debt securities held at a discount.  ASU 2017-08 is to be applied using a modified retrospective approach through a cumulative-effect adjustment directly to retained earnings as of the beginning of the period of adoption.  The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years.  Early2024. The adoption is permitted.  The Company does not expect this ASU to have a material effect on its consolidated financial statements.

Leases
In February 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-02, Leases (Topic 842). This ASU requires lessees to present right-of-use assets and lease liabilities on the balance sheet. ASU 2016-02 is to be applied using a modified retrospective approach at the beginning of the earliest comparative period in the financial statements. The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years. Early adoption is permitted. The Company is evaluating the effect that this ASU will have on its consolidated financial statements.


Credit Losses on Financial Instruments

In June 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments.  The amendments in this ASU are intended to improve financial reporting by requiring timelier recording of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments held by financial institutions and other organizations. The ASU requires the measurement of all expected credit losses for financial assets held at the reporting date based on historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. Financial institutions will use forward-looking information to better inform their credit loss estimates as a resultaffect certain of the ASU. While manyCompany’s income tax disclosures.

2.    Segment Information

     The Company reports its results of operations in two segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The Company separately reports the loss estimation techniques applied today will still be permitted,results of its Corporate division and the inputs to those techniques will change to reflect the full amounteffects of expected credit losses. The ASU requires enhanced disclosures to help investorsconsolidating FG VIEs and other financial statement users to better understand significant estimates and judgments used in estimating credit losses, as well as credit quality and underwriting standards of an organization’s portfolio. 

In addition, the ASU amends the accounting for credit losses on available-for-sale securities and purchased financial assets with credit deterioration. The ASU also eliminates the concept of “other than temporary” from the impairment model for certain available-for-sale securities. Accordingly, the ASU states that an entity must use an allowance approach, must limit the allowance to an amount by which the security’s fair valueCIVs. This presentation is less than its amortized cost basis, may not consider the length of time fair value has been less than amortized cost, and may not consider recoveries in fair value after the balance sheet date when assessing whether a credit loss exists. For purchased financial assets with credit deterioration, the ASU requires an entity’s method for measuring credit losses to be consistent with its method for measuring expected losses for originated and purchased non-credit-deteriorated assets.

The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019, including interim periods within those fiscal years. For debt securities classified as available-for-sale, entities will be required to record a cumulative-effect adjustment to the statement of financial position as of the beginning of the first reporting periodmanner in which the guidance is adopted.  Company’s CODM reviews the business to assess performance and allocate resources.

The changesInsurance segment primarily consists of: (i) the Company’s insurance subsidiaries; and (ii) AGAS. Prior to July 1, 2023, the impairment model for available-for-sale securitiesAsset Management segment consisted of AssuredIM, which provided asset management services to third-party investors, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries and changes to purchased financial assets with credit deterioration are to be applied prospectively.  TheAGAS. Beginning in July 2023, the Company is evaluating the effect that this ASU will have on its consolidated financial statements.

2.Acquisitions

MBIA UK Insurance Limited

On January 10, 2017 (the MBIA UK Acquisition Date), AGC completed its acquisition of MBIA UK Insurance Limited (MBIA UK), the U.K. operating subsidiary of MBIA Insurance Corporation (MBIA) (the MBIA UK Acquisition). As consideration for the outstanding shares of MBIA UK plus $23 million in cash, AGC exchanged all its holdings of notes issuedparticipates in the Zohar II 2005-1 transaction (Zohar II Notes), which were insured by MBIA. AGC’s Zohar II Notes had total outstanding principal of approximately $347 million and fair value of $334 millionasset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point as of the MBIA UK Acquisition Date. The MBIA UK Acquisition added approximately $12 billion of net par insured on January 10, 2017.

MBIA UK was renamed Assured Guaranty (London) Ltd. and on June 1, 2017, was re-registered as a public limited company (plc). Further, AGLN was sold by AGC to AGM and then contributed by AGM to AGE on June 26, 2017. Please refer todescribed in Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation for additional informationPresentation. Beginning in the third quarter of 2023, the Asset Management segment primarily includes the results of the Company’s equity method investment in Sound Point.

    The Corporate division primarily consists of: (i) interest expense and any losses on the Company's European subsidiaries combination.extinguishment of the U.S. Holding Companies’ debt; and (ii) other corporate operating expenses of AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies.

    The Other category primarily includes the effect of consolidating FG VIEs, CIVs, intersegment eliminations and, prior to July 1, 2023, the reclassification of reimbursable fund expenses. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

    The segment results differ from the consolidated financial statements in certain respects. The Insurance segment includes: (i) premiums and losses from the financial guaranty insurance policies issued by the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries that guarantee the FG VIEs’ debt; and (ii) the insurance segment’s share of earnings from investments in funds managed by Sound Point (prior to July 1, 2023, AssuredIM) and AHP funds in “equity in earnings (losses) of investees.” Under GAAP, (i) FG VIEs are consolidated by the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries and the premiums and losses/recoveries associated with the financial guaranty policies associated with the FG VIEs’ debt are eliminated (the reconciliation tables below present the FG VIEs and related eliminations in “other”); and (ii) CIVs are consolidated by either AGUS or AGAS (in the reconciliation tables below, the CIVs and related eliminations of the Insurance segment’s “equity in earnings (losses) of investees” associated with AGAS’ ownership interest in CIVs are presented in “other”). Until July 1, 2023, under GAAP, reimbursable fund expenses were shown
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Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
as a component of asset management fees and included in total revenues, whereas in the Asset Management segment in the tables below these expenses were netted in “segment expenses.”

The MBIA UK Acquisition was accountedCompany analyzes the operating performance of each segment using “segment adjusted operating income (loss).” Results for undereach segment include specifically identifiable expenses as well as intersegment expense allocations, as applicable, based on time studies and other cost allocation methodologies based on headcount or other metrics. Segment adjusted operating income is defined as “net income (loss) attributable to AGL,” adjusted for the acquisition methodfollowing items, which primarily affect the Insurance segment and Corporate division:
Elimination of accountingrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading.
Elimination of non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which requires thatis the assets and liabilities acquired be recorded atamount of unrealized fair value. The Company exercised significant judgment to determinevalue gains (losses) in excess of the fairpresent value of the assets it acquiredexpected estimated economic credit losses, and liabilities it assumed in the MBIA UK Acquisition. The most significantnon-economic payments.
Elimination of these determinations related to the valuation of MBIA UK's financial guaranty insurance contracts. On an aggregate basis, MBIA UK's contractual premiums for financial guaranty insurance contracts were less than the premiums a market participant of similar credit quality would demand to acquire those contractsfair value gains (losses) on the MBIA UK Acquisition Date, particularly for below-investment-grade (BIG) transactions, resultingCompany’s committed capital securities (CCS) that are recognized in a significant amountnet income.
Elimination of the purchase price being allocated to these contracts. For informationforeign exchange gains (losses) on the methodology used to measure the fair valueremeasurement of assets acquired and liabilities assumed in the MBIA UK Acquisition, please refer to Note 7, Fair Value Measurement.

The fair value of the Company's stand-ready obligation on the MBIA UK Acquisition Date is recorded in unearnednet premium reserve. After the MBIA UK Acquisition Date, loss reservesreceivables and loss and loss adjustment expensesexpense (LAE) will be recorded whenreserves that are recognized in net income.
The tax effects related to the expected losses forabove adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each contract exceeds the remaining unearned premium reserve, in accordance with the

Company's accounting policy described in the Annual Report on Form 10-K. The expected losses acquired by the Company as part of the MBIA UK Acquisition are included in Note 5, Expected Losses to be Paid.jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.


The excess ofCompany does not report assets by reportable segment as the fair value of net assets acquired over the consideration transferred was recorded as a bargain purchase gain in "bargain purchase gainCODM does not assess performance and settlement of pre-existing relationships" in net income. In addition, the Company and MBIA UK had pre-existing reinsurance relationships, which were also effectively settled at fair valueallocate resources based on the MBIA UK Acquisition Date. The gain on settlement of these pre-existing reinsurance relationships represents the net difference between the historical assumed balances that were recorded by the Company and the fair value of ceded balances acquired from MBIA UK. The Company believes the bargain purchase gain resulted from MBIA's strategy to address its insurance obligations with regards to the Zohar II Notes, the issuers of which MBIA did not expect would have sufficient funds to repay such notes in full on the scheduled maturity date of such notes in January 2017.assets.


The following table showspresents information for the net effectCompany’s operating segments. Intersegment revenues include transactions between and among the segments, the corporate division and other.

Segment Information
First Quarter
20242023
InsuranceAsset ManagementInsuranceAsset Management
(in millions)
Third-party revenues$227 $$188 $25 
Intersegment revenues— 16 
Segment revenues229 190 41 
Segment expenses85 — 79 42 
Segment equity in earnings (losses) of investees40 30 — 
Less: Segment provision (benefit) for income taxes35 24 — 
Segment adjusted operating income (loss)$149 $$117 $(1)

10

Table of the MBIA UK Acquisition, including the effectsContents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The tables below present a reconciliation of the settlementsignificant components of pre-existing relationships.

 Fair Value of Net Assets Acquired, before Settlement of Pre-existing Relationships Net effect of Settlement of Pre-existing Relationships 
Net Effect of
MBIA UK Acquisition
 (in millions)
Purchase price (1)$334
 $
 $334
      
Identifiable assets acquired:     
Investments459
 
 459
Cash72
 
 72
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable274
 (4) 270
Other assets16
 (6) 10
Total assets821
 (10) 811
  
    
Liabilities assumed:     
Unearned premium reserves389
 (6) 383
Current tax payable25
 
 25
Other liabilities4
 (5) (1)
Total liabilities418
 (11) 407
Net assets of MBIA UK403
 1
 404
Cash acquired from MBIA Holdings23
 
 23
Deferred tax liability(36) 
 (36)
Net asset effect of MBIA UK Acquisition390
 1
 391
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships resulting from MBIA UK Acquisition, after-tax56
 1
 57
Deferred tax
 1
 1
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships resulting from MBIA UK Acquisition, pre-tax$56
 $2
 $58
_____________________
(1)The purchase price of $334 million was allocated as follows: (1) $329 million for the purchase of net assets of $385 million, and (2) the settlement of pre-existing relationships between MBIA UK and Assured Guaranty at a fair value of $5 million.
Revenue and net income related to MBIA UK from the MBIA UK Acquisition Date through September 30, 2017 included in the consolidated statement of operations were approximately $176 million and $129 million, respectively, including the bargain purchase gain, settlement of pre-existing relationships, quarterly activity and realized gain on the disposition of AGC's Zohar II Notes. For Nine Months 2017, the Company recognized transaction expenses relatedsegment information to the MBIA UK Acquisitioncomparable consolidated amounts.

Reconciliation of $7 million comprising primarily legal and financial advisors fees.Segment Information to Consolidated Information

First Quarter 2024

Equity in Earnings (Losses) of InvesteesLess:Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL
 Revenues Expenses Provision (Benefit) for Income Taxes Noncontrolling Interests 
 (in millions)
Segments:
Insurance$229 $85 $40 $35 $— $149 
Asset Management— — 
Total segments230 85 41 36 — 150 
Corporate division47 — (5)— (37)
Other16 (5)(17)— — 
Subtotal251 127 24 31 113 
Reconciling items:
Realized gains (losses) on investments— — — — 
Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives(2)— — — 10 
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS(10)— — — — (10)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves(12)— — — — (12)
Tax effect— — — — — — 
Total consolidated$245 $125 $24 $31 $$109 
Unaudited Pro Forma Results

11

Table of OperationsContents

The following unaudited pro forma information presents the combined results of operations of Assured Guaranty and MBIA UK as if the acquisition had been completed on January 1, 2016, as required under GAAP. The pro forma accounts include the estimated historical resultsLtd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Reconciliation of the Company and MBIA UK and pro forma adjustments primarily comprising the earning of the unearned premium reserve and the expected losses that would be recognized in net income for each prior period presented, as well as the accounting for bargain purchase gain, settlement of pre-existing relationships, the realized gain on the disposition of the Zohar II Notes and MBIA UK acquisition related expenses, all net of tax at the applicable statutory rate.Segment Information to Consolidated Information

First Quarter 2023
The unaudited pro forma combined financial information is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not indicate the financial results of the combined company had the companies actually been combined as of January 1, 2016, nor is it indicative of the results of operations in future periods. The Company did not include any pro forma combined financial information for 2017 as substantially all of MBIA UK's results of operations for 2017 are included in Nine Months 2017 consolidated statements of operations.
Equity in Earnings (Losses) of InvesteesLess:Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL
 Revenues Expenses Provision (Benefit) for Income Taxes Noncontrolling Interests 
 (in millions)
Segments:
Insurance$190 $79 $30 $24 $— $117 
Asset Management41 42 — — — (1)
Total segments231 121 30 24 — 116 
Corporate division48 — (2)— (44)
Other35 (4)(28)(1)16 (4)
Subtotal268 165 21 16 68 
Reconciling items:
Realized gains (losses) on investments(2)— — — — (2)
Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives13 — — — — 13 
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS(16)— — — — (16)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves20 — — — — 20 
Tax effect— — — — (2)
Total consolidated$283 $165 $$23 $16 $81 


Unaudited Pro Forma Results of Operations

  Nine Months 2016
  (in millions, except per share amounts)
Pro forma revenues $1,358
Pro forma net income 796
Pro forma earnings per share (EPS):  
  Basic 5.93
  Diluted 5.89


CIFG Holding Inc.
On July 1, 2016, AGC acquired all of the issued and outstanding capital stock of CIFG Holding Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, CIFGH), the parent of financial guaranty insurer CIFG Assurance North America, Inc. (CIFGNA) (the CIFG Acquisition), for $450.6 million in cash.  AGUS previously owned 1.6% of the outstanding shares of CIFGH, for which it received $7.1 million in consideration from AGC, resulting in a net consolidated purchase price of $443 million. AGC merged CIFGNA with and into AGC, with AGC as the surviving company, on July 5, 2016. The CIFG Acquisition added $4.2 billion of net par insured on July 1, 2016.

Please refer to Note 2, Acquisitions, in Part II, Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” of AGL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 for additional information on the acquisition of CIFG Holding Inc., including the purchase price and the allocation of the purchase price to net assets acquired and the resulting bargain purchase gain and the loss on settlement of pre-existing relationships.

3.    RatingsOutstanding Exposure
 
The Company sells credit protection primarily in financial strength ratings (or similar ratings)guaranty insurance form. The Company may also sell credit protection by issuing policies that guarantee payment obligations under credit default swaps (CDS). The Company’s contracts accounted for as credit derivatives are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s insurance companies, along with the date of the most recent rating action (or confirmation) by the rating agency,obligation to make loss payments are shown in the table below. Ratings are subjectsimilar to continuous rating agency review and revision or withdrawal at any time. In addition, the Company periodically assesses the value of each rating assigned to each ofthose for its companies, and as a result of such assessment may request that a rating agency add or drop a rating from certain of its companies.


S&P Global Ratings, a division of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC
Kroll Bond Rating
Agency
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.
A.M. Best Company,
Inc.
AGMAA (stable) (6/26/17)AA+ (stable) (12/14/16)A2 (stable) (8/8/16)
AGCAA (stable) (6/26/17)AA (stable) (9/20/16)(1)
MACAA (stable) (6/26/17)AA+ (stable) (7/14/17)
AG ReAA (stable) (6/26/17)
AGROAA (stable) (6/26/17)A+ (stable) (6/15/17)
AGEAA (stable) (6/26/17)A2 (stable) (8/8/16)
AGUKAA (stable) (6/26/17)(1)
AGLNBB (positive) (1/12/17)(2)
CIFGE
____________________
(1)AGC requested that Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (Moody's) withdraw its financial strength ratings of AGC and AGUK in January 2017, but Moody's denied that request. Moody’s continues to rate AGC A3 (stable) and AGUK A3; Moody's put AGUK on review for upgrade on June 27, 2017, following its transfer to AGM.

(2)Assured Guaranty did not request that Moody's rate AGLN. Moody's continues to rate AGLN, and upgraded its rating to Baa2 (stable) on January 13, 2017, following its acquisition by AGC, and then to Baa1 on review for further upgrade on June 27, 2017, following its transfer to AGM.

There can be no assurance that any of the rating agencies will not take negative action on their financial strength ratings of AGL's insurance subsidiaries in the future.
For a discussion of the effects of rating actions on the Company, please refer to Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Insurance, and Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures.

4.Outstanding Exposure
The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in either insurance or credit derivative form, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts.

The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views asto be investment grade at inception, although on occasion it may underwrite new issuances that it views to be below-investment-grade (BIG), typically as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled credits,exposures. The Company also seeks to acquire portfolios of insurance from financial guarantors that are no longer writing new business by acquiring such companies, providing reinsurance on, or novating, a portfolio of insurance; in such instances, it evaluates the risk characteristics of the target portfolio, which may underwrite new issuances that it viewsinclude some BIG exposures, as BIG.a whole in the context of the proposed transaction. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across asset classessector and geography and, in the structured finance portfolio, generally requires rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements.collateral to protect it from loss. Reinsurance may be used in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions.


     Public finance obligations insured by the Company primarily consist primarily of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company also includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, health carehealthcare facilities and government office buildings. The Company also includes within public finance similarbuildings as well as obligations issued by territorialU.S. and non-U.S. sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers and governmental authorities.


Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 9, Consolidated8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities.Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and debt service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on these VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.

12

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued

The Company also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form.

Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review forof each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-.

The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective ofreflect an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company'sCompany’s internal credit ratings focus on future performance rather than lifetime performance.

The Company monitors its insured portfolio and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual creditsexposures in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’sexposure’s credit quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on creditsexposures in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’squarter, although the Company may also review a rating in response to developments impacting a credit when a ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such informationreview is not available, in which case,scheduled. For assumed exposures, the Company may use the ceding company’s credit ratings of the transactions are used.where it is impractical for it to assign its own rating.
 
CreditsExposures identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss. Please refer toSee Note 5,4, Expected Loss to be Paid for additional information.(Recovered). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to one of the appropriatethree BIG surveillance categorycategories described below based upon whether a future loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company uses the pre-tax book yield of the relevant subsidiary’s investment portfolio to calculate the present value of projected payments and recoveries and determine whether a future loss is expected in order to assign the appropriate BIG surveillance category to a transaction. For surveillancefinancial statement measurement purposes, the Company calculates present value using a discount rate of 4% or 5% depending on the insurance subsidiary. (Risk-freeuses risk-free rates, which are used for calculatingdetermined each quarter, to calculate the expected loss for financial statement measurement purposes.)loss.

    
More extensive monitoring and intervention isare employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. TheFor purposes of determining the appropriate surveillance category, the Company expects “future losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will in the future pay more claims on that transaction in the future than itthat will havenot be fully reimbursed. The three BIG surveillance categories are:
 
BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected.
BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims, which are claims that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid.
BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.


Components of OutstandingFinancial Guaranty Exposure


Unless otherwise noted, ratings disclosed herein on the Company's insured portfolio reflect its internal ratings. The Company classifies those portionsmeasures its financial guaranty exposure in terms of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as the higher of 'AA' or their current internal rating.(i) gross and net par outstanding and (ii) gross and net debt service.


The Company purchasestypically guarantees the payment of debt service when due. Since most of these payments are due in the future, the Company generally uses gross and net par outstanding as a proxy for its financial guaranty exposure. Gross par outstanding generally represents the principal amount of the insured obligation at a point in time. Net par outstanding equals gross par outstanding net of any reinsurance. The Company includes in its par outstanding calculation the impact of any consumer price index inflator to the reporting date as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion to the reporting date. Non-U.S. dollar denominated par outstanding is translated at the spot rate at the end of the reporting period.

    The Company has, from time to time, purchased securities that it has insured, and for which it hashad expected losses to be paid, in order to
mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (loss mitigation securities)(Loss Mitigation Securities). The Company excludes amounts
13

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
attributable to loss mitigation securities (unless otherwise indicated)Loss Mitigation Securities from par and debt service outstanding which amounts are includedand instead reports Loss Mitigation Securities in the investment portfolio, because itportfolio. The Company manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As of September 30, 2017both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016,2023, the Company excluded $2.0 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively, of net par relatedoutstanding of $1.2 billion attributable to loss mitigationLoss Mitigation Securities.

    Gross debt service outstanding represents the sum of all estimated future debt service payments on the insured obligations, on an undiscounted basis. Net debt service outstanding equals gross debt service outstanding net of any reinsurance. Future debt service payments include the estimated impact of any consumer price index inflator after the reporting date as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion after the reporting date.

    The Company calculates its debt service outstanding as follows:

for insured obligations that are not supported by homogeneous pools of assets (which category includes most of the Company’s public finance transactions), as the total estimated contractual future debt service due through maturity, regardless of whether the obligations may be called and regardless of whether, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, the Company believes the obligations will be repaid prior to contractual maturity; and

for insured obligations that are supported by homogeneous pools of assets that are contractually permitted to prepay principal (which category includes, for example, residential mortgage-backed securities (which(RMBS)), as the total estimated expected future debt service due on insured obligations through their respective expected terms, which includes the Company’s expectations as to whether the obligations may be called and, in the case of obligations where principal payments are mostly BIG),due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, when the Company expects principal payments to be made prior to contractual maturity.

    The calculation of debt service requires the use of estimates, which the Company updates periodically, including estimates and assumptions for the expected remaining term of insured obligations supported by homogeneous pools of assets, updated interest rates for floating and variable rate insured obligations, behavior of consumer price indices for obligations with consumer price index inflators, foreign exchange rates and other loss mitigation strategies. The following table presentsassumptions based on the grosscharacteristics of each insured obligation. Debt service is a measure of the estimated maximum potential exposure to insured obligations before considering the Company’s various legal rights to the underlying collateral and netother remedies available to it under its financial guaranty contract.

    Actual debt service for financial guaranty contracts.may differ from estimated debt service due to refundings, terminations, negotiated restructurings, prepayments, changes in interest rates on variable rate insured obligations, consumer price index behavior differing from that projected, changes in foreign exchange rates on non-U.S. dollar denominated insured obligations and other factors.



Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Debt Service and Par Outstanding

As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
 GrossNetGrossNet
 (in millions)
Debt Service
Public finance$383,723 $383,648 $386,494 $386,419 
Structured finance11,627 11,201 11,543 11,217 
Total financial guaranty$395,350 $394,849 $398,037 $397,636 
Par Outstanding
Public finance$238,188 $238,132 $239,352 $239,296 
Structured finance10,438 10,012 10,183 9,857 
Total financial guaranty$248,626 $248,144 $249,535 $249,153 
 
Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 September 30,
2017
 December 31,
2016
 September 30,
2017
 December 31,
2016
 (in millions)
Public finance$407,539
 $425,849
 $399,347
 $409,447
Structured finance17,464
 29,151
 17,377
 28,088
Total financial guaranty$425,003
 $455,000
 $416,724
 $437,535


In addition to amounts shown in the tablestable above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $43$829 million of public finance gross par and $1.8 billion of structured finance gross par as of the date of this filing. TheMarch 31, 2024. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in themthe guaranties and may expire unused or be
14

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts. Also, in connection with a potential transaction that would accelerate the run-off of the insured portfolio of Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (FGIC) pursuant to the First Amended Plan of Rehabilitation for FGIC, dated June 4, 2013 (the Proposed Transaction), the Company and FGIC are parties to a Novation Agreement dated as of February 8, 2024 (the Agreement) pursuant to which certain FGIC policies insuring approximately $353 million of public finance (including infrastructure) gross par and approximately $50 million of structured finance gross par as of December 31, 2023 may in the future be novated to the Company in accordance with the terms and conditions of the Agreement. The Proposed Transaction, including the novation of certain FGIC policies to the Company, is subject in all respects to review and approval by the New York State Department of Financial Services, the reopening of FGIC’s rehabilitation proceeding, and ultimate approval by the Supreme Court of the State of New York. In the event the Proposed Transaction does not occur on or prior to September 30, 2025, either the Company or FGIC has the right to terminate the Agreement in accordance with its terms.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024

 Public Finance
U.S.
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
Structured Finance
U.S
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
Total
Rating
Category
Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%
 (dollars in millions)
AAA$27 — %$2,058 4.3 %$762 8.8 %$454 33.2 %$3,301 1.3 %
AA17,872 9.5 3,336 6.9 5,591 64.7 84 6.1 26,883 10.8 
A103,551 54.5 12,740 26.4 816 9.5 738 53.9 117,845 47.5 
BBB65,326 34.4 28,998 60.1 505 5.8 93 6.8 94,922 38.3 
BIG3,119 1.6 1,105 2.3 969 11.2 — — 5,193 2.1 
Total net par outstanding$189,895 100.0 %$48,237 100.0 %$8,643 100.0 %$1,369 100.0 %$248,144 100.0 %
  
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 %
  (dollars in millions)
AAA $915
 0.4% $2,523
 5.9% $2,333
 17.8% $419
 25.0% $6,190
 2.2%
AA 33,614
 15.4
 301
 0.7
 4,853
 36.9
 76
 4.5
 38,844
 14.1
A 124,332
 57.0
 13,657
 32.0
 1,778
 13.5
 268
 15.9
 140,035
 50.8
BBB 52,021
 23.8
 23,965
 56.1
 724
 5.5
 762
 45.3
 77,472
 28.1
BIG 7,334
 3.4
 2,281
 5.3
 3,454
 26.3
 157
 9.3
 13,226
 4.8
Total net par outstanding (1) $218,216
 100.0%
$42,727

100.0%
$13,142

100.0%
$1,682

100.0%
$275,767

100.0%
_____________________
(1)The September 30, 2017 amounts include $13.0 billion of net par from the MBIA UK Acquisition. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for the effect of commutations on net par outstanding.



Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 20162023

 Public Finance
U.S.
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
Structured Finance
U.S
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
Total
Rating
Category
Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%
 (dollars in millions)
AAA$110 0.1 %$2,062 4.2 %$867 10.0 %$465 38.0 %$3,504 1.4 %
AA17,883 9.4 3,379 6.9 4,517 52.3 89 7.3 25,868 10.4 
A102,945 54.1 12,968 26.5 1,639 19.0 571 46.6 118,123 47.4 
BBB66,080 34.7 29,467 60.1 574 6.7 100 8.1 96,221 38.6 
BIG3,271 1.7 1,131 2.3 1,035 12.0 — — 5,437 2.2 
Total net par outstanding$190,289 100.0 %$49,007 100.0 %$8,632 100.0 %$1,225 100.0 %$249,153 100.0 %

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
  
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 %
  (dollars in millions)
AAA $2,066
 0.8% $2,221
 8.4% $9,757
 44.2% $1,447
 47.0% $15,491
 5.2%
AA 46,420
 19.0
 170
 0.6
 5,773
 26.2
 127
 4.1
 52,490
 17.7
A 133,829
 54.7
 6,270
 23.8
 1,589
 7.2
 456
 14.8
 142,144
 48.0
BBB 55,103
 22.5
 16,378
 62.1
 879
 4.0
 759
 24.6
 73,119
 24.7
BIG 7,380
 3.0
 1,342
 5.1
 4,059
 18.4
 293
 9.5
 13,074
 4.4
Total net par outstanding $244,798
 100.0% $26,381
 100.0% $22,057
 100.0% $3,082
 100.0% $296,318
 100.0%


Components of BIGFinancial Guaranty Portfolio

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024

 BIG Net Par OutstandingNet Par
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIGOutstanding
   (in millions)  
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$1,249 $926 $944 $3,119 189,895 
Non-U.S. public finance1,105 — — 1,105 48,237 
Public finance2,354 926 944 4,224 238,132 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS17 36 825 878 1,684 
Other structured finance— 25 66 91 8,328 
Structured finance17 61 891 969 10,012 
Total$2,371 $987 $1,835 $5,193 $248,144 

 BIG Net Par Outstanding Net Par
 BIG 1 BIG 2 BIG 3 Total BIG Outstanding
     (in millions)    
Public finance:         
U.S. public finance$2,563
 $662
 $4,109
 $7,334
 $218,216
Non-U.S. public finance2,007
 274
 
 2,281
 42,727
Public finance4,570
 936
 4,109
 9,615
 260,943
Structured finance:         
U.S. Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)177
 354
 2,338
 2,869
 5,064
Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
 85
 85
 2,058
Trust preferred securities (TruPS)239
 
 
 239
 1,455
Other structured finance186
 157
 75
 418
 6,247
Structured finance602
 511
 2,498
 3,611
 14,824
Total$5,172
 $1,447
 $6,607
 $13,226
 $275,767


Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 20162023

 BIG Net Par OutstandingNet Par
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIGOutstanding
   (in millions)  
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$1,257 $926 $1,088 $3,271 $190,289 
Non-U.S. public finance1,131 — — 1,131 49,007 
Public finance2,388 926 1,088 4,402 239,296 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS22 36 883 941 1,774 
Other structured finance— 27 67 94 8,083 
Structured finance22 63 950 1,035 9,857 
Total$2,410 $989 $2,038 $5,437 $249,153 

 BIG Net Par Outstanding Net Par
 BIG 1 BIG 2 BIG 3 Total BIG Outstanding
     (in millions)    
Public finance:         
U.S. public finance$2,402
 $3,123
 $1,855
 $7,380
 $244,798
Non-U.S. public finance1,288
 54
 
 1,342
 26,381
Public finance3,690
 3,177
 1,855
 8,722
 271,179
Structured finance:         
U.S. RMBS197
 493
 2,461
 3,151
 5,637
Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
 126
 126
 2,057
TruPS304
 126
 
 430
 1,892
Other structured finance304
 263
 78
 645
 15,553
Structured finance805
 882
 2,665
 4,352
 25,139
Total$4,495
 $4,059
 $4,520
 $13,074
 $296,318


Financial Guaranty Portfolio
BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024

 Net Par Outstanding
Number of Risks (2)
DescriptionFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
TotalFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
Total
 (dollars in millions)
BIG 1$2,356 $15 $2,371 91 93 
BIG 2977 10 987 12 14 
BIG 31,808 27 1,835 109 116 
Total BIG$5,141 $52 $5,193 212 11 223 

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
  Net Par Outstanding Number of Risks(2)
Description 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 Total 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 Total
  (dollars in millions)
BIG:  
  
  
  
  
  
Category 1 $4,628
 $544
 $5,172
 150
 9
 159
Category 2 1,382
 65
 1,447
 48
 4
 52
Category 3 6,520
 87
 6,607
 151
 8
 159
Total BIG $12,530
 $696
 $13,226
 349
 21
 370
Financial Guaranty Portfolio


BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 20162023

  Net Par Outstanding Number of Risks(2)
Description 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 Total 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 Total
  (dollars in millions)
BIG:  
  
  
  
  
  
Category 1 $3,861
 $634
 $4,495
 165
 10
 175
Category 2 3,857
 202
 4,059
 79
 6
 85
Category 3 4,383
 137
 4,520
 148
 9
 157
Total BIG $12,101
 $973
 $13,074
 392
 25
 417
 Net Par Outstanding
Number of Risks (2)
DescriptionFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
TotalFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
Total
 (dollars in millions)
BIG 1$2,394 $16 $2,410 95 97 
BIG 2979 10 989 13 15 
BIG 32,010 28 2,038 109 116 
Total BIG$5,383 $54 $5,437 217 11 228 
_____________________
(1)Includes net par outstandingFG VIEs.
(2)    A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for VIEs.purposes of making debt service payments.
(2)A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.   



Exposure to Puerto Rico
    
The Company has    All of the Company’s insured exposure to general obligation bondsvarious authorities and public corporations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico or the Commonwealth) and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.0 billion net par as of September 30, 2017, all of which areis rated BIG. This amount includes $389 million related toAs of March 31, 2024, the 2017 commutations of previously ceded business. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for more information. In recent years,Company’s only remaining outstanding insured Puerto Rico has experienced significant general fund budget deficits and a challenging economic environment. Beginning on January 1, 2016, a number of Puerto Rico credits have defaulted on bond payments, and the Company has now paid claims on most of its Puerto Rico credits as shown in the table "Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding" below.

On November 30, 2015 and December 8, 2015, Governor García Padilla of Puerto Rico (the Former Governor) issued executive orders (Clawback Orders) directing the Puerto Rico Department of Treasury and the Puerto Rico Tourism Company to "claw back" certain taxes pledged to secure the payment of bonds issued by the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA), Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA), and Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA). The Puerto Rico credits insured by the Companyexposure subject to clawback are shown ina payment default was the table “Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding” below.


On June 30, 2016, the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) was signed into law by the President of the United States. PROMESA establishes a seven-member federal financial oversight board (Oversight Board) with authority to require that balanced budgets and fiscal plans be adopted and implemented by Puerto Rico. PROMESA provides a legal framework under which the debt of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations may be voluntarily restructured, and grants the Oversight Board the sole authority to file restructuring petitions in a federal court to restructure the debt of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations if voluntary negotiations fail, provided that any such restructuring must be in accordance with an Oversight Board approved fiscal plan that respects the liens and priorities provided under Puerto Rico law.

On January 2, 2017, Ricardo Antonio Rosselló Nevares (the Governor) took office, replacing the Former Governor. On January 29, 2017, the Governor signed the Puerto Rico Emergency and Fiscal Responsibility Act (Emergency Act) that, among other things, defined an emergency period that has since been extended to December 31, 2017, continued diversion of collateral away from bonds the Company insures, and defined the powers and duties of the Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority (FAFAA).

In mid-March 2017, the Oversight Board certified Puerto Rico’s fiscal plan, dated March 13, 2017 (Fiscal Plan). The Fiscal Plan provides only approximately $7.9 billion for Commonwealth debt service over the next ten years, an amount less than scheduled debt service for such period. The Fiscal Plan itself acknowledges that there are a number of legal and contractual issues not addressed by the Fiscal Plan. On April 28, 2017, the Oversight Board approved fiscal plans for Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) and PRHTA, and directed Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) to amend its proposed plan in several ways. The Oversight Board approved the amended PRASA plan on June 30, 2017. The PRHTA plan assumes that PRHTA will not pay any debt service at least through 2026. The PRASA plan assumes it will pay only approximately 65% of its debt service through 2026. The Company does not believe the fiscal plans of PRHTA or PRASA in their current forms comply with certain mandatory requirements of PROMESA..

On May 3, 2017, the Oversight Board filed a petition with the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico for the Commonwealth under Title III of PROMESA. Title III of PROMESA provides for a process analogous to a voluntary bankruptcy process under chapter 9 of the United States Bankruptcy Code (Bankruptcy Code). On May 5, 2017, the Oversight Board certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA). On May 21, 2017, the Board filed a petition under Title III of PROMESA for PRHTA. On July 2, 2017, after the rejection by the Oversight Board and termination by PREPA of the Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) described below, the Oversight Board commenced proceedings for PREPA under Title III of PROMESA.
The Company believes that a number of the actions taken by the Commonwealth, the Oversight Board and others with respect to obligations the Company insures are illegal or unconstitutional or both, and has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to these matters. Please see “Puerto Rico Recovery Litigation” below.

Judge Laura Taylor Swain of the Southern District of New York was selected by Chief Justice John Roberts of the United States Supreme Court to preside over any proceedings under PROMESA. Judge Swain has selected a team of five federal judges to act as mediators for certain issues and disputes.

On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing loss of life and widespread devastation in the Commonwealth. Damage to the Commonwealth’s infrastructure, including the power grid, water system and transportation system, was extensive, with the entire island being without power in the aftermath of the storm. Officials continue to assess the extent of the damage, but rebuilding and economic recovery are expected to take years. While the federal government is expected to provide very substantial resources for relief and rebuilding -- which is expected to help economic activity and address the Commonwealth’s infrastructure needs in the intermediate and longer term -- economic activity in general and tourism in particular, as well as tax collections, are all expected to decline in the short term. Out migration to the mainland is also expected to increase, at least initially.

Litigation and mediation related to the Commonwealth’s debt have been delayed by Hurricane Maria. The final form and timing of responses to Puerto Rico’s financial distress and the devastation of Hurricane Maria eventually taken by the federal government or implemented under the auspices of PROMESA and the Oversight Board or otherwise, and the final impact, after resolution of legal challenges, of any such responses on obligations insured by the Company, are uncertain.


The Company groups its Puerto Rico exposure into three categories:

Constitutionally Guaranteed. The Company includes in this category public debt benefiting from Article VI of the Constitution of the Commonwealth, which expressly provides that interest and principal payments on the public debt are to be paid before other disbursements are made.

Public Corporations – Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations for which applicable law permits the Commonwealth to claw back, subject to certain conditions and for the payment of public debt, at least a portion of the revenues supporting the bonds the Company insures. As a constitutional condition to clawback, available Commonwealth revenues for any fiscal year must be insufficient to pay Commonwealth debt service before the payment of any appropriations for that year. The Company believes that this condition has not been satisfied to date, and accordingly that the Commonwealth has not to date been entitled to claw back revenues supporting debt insured by the Company. Prior to the enactment of PROMESA, the Company sued various Puerto Rico governmental officials in the United States District Court, District of Puerto Rico asserting that Puerto Rico's attempt to “claw back” pledged taxes is unconstitutional, and demanding declaratory and injunctive relief. Please see "Puerto Rico Recovery Litigation" below.

Other Public Corporations. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations that are supported by revenues it does not believe are subject to clawback.

Constitutionally Guaranteed

General Obligation. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $1,419 million insured net par outstanding of the general obligations of Puerto Rico, which are supported by the good faith, credit and taxing power of the Commonwealth. On July 1, 2016, despite the requirements of Article VI of its Constitution, the Commonwealth defaulted on most of the debt service payment due that day, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds, and has continued to make claim payments on these bonds. As noted above, the Oversight Board filed a petition under Title III of PROMESA with respect to the Commonwealth.

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA). As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $141 million insured net par outstanding of PBA bonds, which are supported by a pledge of the rents due under leases of government facilities to departments, agencies, instrumentalities and municipalities of the Commonwealth, and that benefit from a Commonwealth guaranty supported by a pledge of the Commonwealth’s good faith, credit and taxing power. On July 1, 2016, despite the requirements of Article VI of its Constitution, the PBA defaulted on most of the debt service payment due that day, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds, and has continued to make claim payments on these bonds.

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback

PRHTA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $882 million insured net par outstanding of PRHTA (transportation revenue) bonds and $495 million insured net par of PRHTA (highways revenue) bonds. The transportation revenue bonds are secured by a subordinate gross lien on gasoline and gas oil and diesel oil taxes, motor vehicle license fees and certain tolls, plus a first lien on up to $120 million annually of taxes on crude oil, unfinished oil and derivative products. The highways revenue bonds are secured by a gross lien on gasoline and gas oil and diesel oil taxes, motor vehicle license fees and certain tolls. The non-toll revenues consisting of excise taxes and fees collected by the Commonwealth on behalf of PRHTA and its bondholders that are statutorily allocated to PRHTA and its bondholders are potentially subject to clawback. Despite the presence of funds in relevant debt service accounts that the Company believes should have been employed to fund debt service, PRHTA defaulted on the full July 1, 2017 insured debt service payment, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds. As noted above, on April 28, 2017, the Oversight Board approved a fiscal plan for PRHTA that PRHTA will not pay any debt service at least through 2026. The Company does not believe the PRHTA fiscal plan in its current form complies with certain mandatory requirements of PROMESA.

PRCCDA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $152 million insured net par outstanding of PRCCDA bonds, which are secured by certain hotel tax revenues. These revenues are sensitive to the level of economic activity in the area and are potentially subject to clawback. There were sufficient funds in the PRCCDA bond accounts to make only partial payments on the July 1, 2017 PRCCDA bond payments guaranteed by the Company, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds.


PRIFA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $18 million insured net par outstanding of PRIFA bonds, which are secured primarily by the return to Puerto Rico of federal excise taxes paid on rum. These revenues are potentially subject to the clawback. The Company made its first claim payment on PRIFA bonds in January 2016, and has continued to make claim payments on PRIFA bonds.

Other Public Corporations

PREPA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $853 million insured net par outstanding of PREPA obligations, which are secured by a lien on the revenues of the electric system.

On December 24, 2015, AGM and AGC entered into an RSA with PREPA, an ad hoc group of uninsured bondholders and a group of fuel-line lenders that would, subject to certain conditions, result in, among other things, modernization of the utility and a restructuring of current debt. Upon finalization of the contemplated restructuring transaction, insured PREPA revenue bonds (with no reduction to par or stated interest rate) would be supported by securitization bonds issued by a special purpose corporation and secured by a transition charge assessed on ratepayers.

In March 2017, the Governor indicated a desire to modify certain aspects of the RSA. On April 6, 2017, the Governor announced that an agreement in principle had been reached to supplement the RSA. As supplemented, the RSA called for AGM and AGC to provide surety insurance policies aggregating approximately $113 million ($14 million for AGC and $99 million for AGM) to support the securitization bonds contemplated by the RSA, to extend the maturity of all of the relending financing provided in 2016, and to provide $120 million of principal payment deferrals in 2018 through 2023. In addition, the RSA as supplemented provided for a consensual restructuring under Title VI of PROMESA.
The Oversight Board did not certify the RSA under Title VI of PROMESA as the Company believes is required by PROMESA, but rather, on July 2, 2017, commenced proceedings for PREPA under Title III of PROMESA. PREPA defaulted on its July 1, 2017 debt service payments, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds to bondholders as a result of these defaults. The Company believes that a number of the actions taken by the Commonwealth, the Oversight Board and others with respect to the PREPA obligations it insures and the RSA are illegal or unconstitutional or both, and has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to these matters. Please see “Puerto Rico Recovery Litigation” below.

PRASA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $373 million of insured net par outstanding to PRASA bonds, which are secured by a lien on the gross revenues of the water and sewer system. On September 15, 2015, PRASA entered into a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that requires it to spend $1.6 billion to upgrade and improve its sewer system island-wide. The PRASA bond accounts contained sufficient funds to make the PRASA bond payments due through the date of this filing that were guaranteed by the Company, and those payments were made in full. As noted above, on April 28, 2017, the Oversight Board considered a fiscal plan for PRASA that assumes PRASA will pay only approximately 65% of its debt service through 2026, and approved the amended plan on June 30, 2017. Because PRASA has several categories of debt outstanding and the Company insures only PRASA debt with a senior lien on gross revenues of PRASA, it is unclear whether (or to what extent, if any) the payment of only 65% of debt service through 2026 would result in a reduction in PRASA payments of Company-insured debt. The Company does not believe the PRASA fiscal plan in its current form complies with certain mandatory requirements of PROMESA.
Municipal Finance Agency (MFA). As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $360 million net par outstanding of bonds issued by MFA secured by a lien on local property tax revenues. The MFA bond accounts contained sufficient funds to make the MFA bond payments due through the date of this filing that were guaranteed by the Company, and those payments were made in full.

COFINA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $272 million insured net par outstanding of junior COFINA bonds, which are secured primarily by a second lien on certain sales and use taxes. As noted above, the Oversight Board filed a petition on behalf of the Commonwealth under Title III of PROMESA. COFINA defaulted on its August 1, 2017 insured debt service payment, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds.
University of Puerto Rico (U of PR). As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $1 million insured net par outstanding of U of PR bonds, which are general obligations of the university and are secured by a subordinate lien on the proceeds, profits and other income of the University, subject to a senior pledge and lien for the benefit of outstanding university system revenue bonds. As of the date of this filing, all debt service payments on U of PR bonds insured by the Company have been made.



Puerto Rico Recovery LitigationPar and Debt Service Schedules

The Company believes that a number of the actions taken by the Commonwealth, the Oversight Board and others with respect to obligations it insures are illegal or unconstitutional or both, and has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to these matters.

On January 7, 2016, AGM, AGC and Ambac Assurance Corporation (Ambac) commenced an action for declaratory judgment and injunctive relief in the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico (Federal District Court in Puerto Rico) to invalidate the executive orders issued by the Former Governor on November 30, 2015 and December 8, 2015 directing that the Secretary of the Treasury of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Puerto Rico Tourism Company claw back certain taxes and revenues pledged to secure the payment of bonds issued by the PRHTA, the PRCCDA and the PRIFA. The Commonwealth defendants filed a motion to dismiss the action for lack of subject matter jurisdiction, which the Court denied on October 4, 2016. On October 14, 2016, the Commonwealth defendants filed a notice of PROMESA automatic stay. While the PROMESA automatic stay expired on May 1, 2017, on May 17, 2017, the Court stayed the action under Title III of PROMESA.

On May 3, 2017, AGM and AGC filed in the Federal District Court in Puerto Rico an adversary complaint seeking a judgment that the Commonwealth's Fiscal Plan violates various sections of PROMESA and the Contracts, Takings and Due Process Clauses of the U.S. Constitution, an injunction enjoining the Commonwealth and Oversight Board from presenting or proceeding with confirmation of any plan of adjustment based on the Fiscal Plan, and a stay on the confirmation of any plan of adjustment based on the Fiscal Plan pending development of a fiscal plan that complies with PROMESA and the U.S. Constitution. On October 6, 2017, AGC and AGM voluntarily withdrew without prejudice the complaint, based on their expectation that the Fiscal Plan would be modified as a result of Hurricane Maria.
On May 16, 2017, The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee for the bonds issued by COFINA, filed an adversary complaint for interpleader and declaratory relief with the Federal District Court in Puerto Rico to resolve competing and conflicting demands made by various groups of COFINA bondholders, insurers of certain COFINA Bonds and COFINA, regarding funds held by the trustee for certain COFINA bond debt service payments scheduled to occur on and after June 1, 2017. On May 19, 2017, an order to show cause was entered permitting AGC and AGM to intervene in this matter. While AGM has insured COFINA Bonds, AGC has not.

On June 3, 2017, AGC and AGM filed an adversary complaint in Federal District Court in Puerto Rico seeking (i) a judgment declaring that the application of pledged special revenues to the payment of the PRHTA Bonds is not subject to the PROMESA Title III automatic stay and that the Commonwealth has violated the special revenue protections provided to the PRHTA Bonds under the Bankruptcy Code; (ii) an injunction enjoining the Commonwealth from taking or causing to be taken any action that would further violate the special revenue protections provided to the PRHTA Bonds under the Bankruptcy Code; and (iii) an injunction ordering the Commonwealth to remit the pledged special revenues securing the PRHTA Bonds in accordance with the terms of the special revenue provisions set forth in the Bankruptcy Code.

On June 26, 2017, AGM and AGC filed a complaint in Federal District Court in Puerto Rico seeking (i) a declaratory judgment that the PREPA RSA is a “Preexisting Voluntary Agreement” under Section 104 of PROMESA and the Oversight Board’s failure to certify the PREPA RSA is an unlawful application of Section 601 of PROMESA; (ii) an injunction enjoining the Oversight Board from unlawfully applying Section 601 of PROMESA and ordering it to certify the PREPA RSA; and (iii) a writ of mandamus requiring the Oversight Board to comply with its duties under PROMESA and certify the PREPA RSA. On July 21, 2017, in light of its PREPA Title III petition on July 2, 2017, the Oversight Board filed a notice of stay under PROMESA.

On July 18, 2017, AGM and AGC filed a motion for relief from the automatic stay in the PREPA Title III bankruptcy proceeding and a form of complaint seeking the appointment of a receiver for PREPA. That motion was denied on September 14, 2017. AGM and AGC filed a notice of appeal on September 28, 2017.

On August 7, 2017, AGC and AGM filed an adversary complaint in Federal District Court in Puerto Rico seeking, among other things, judgment against defendants (i) declaring that the application of pledged special revenues to the payment of the PREPA Bonds is not subject to the PROMESA Title III automatic stay and that the Commonwealth has violated the special revenue protections provided to the PREPA Bonds under the Bankruptcy Code; (ii) declaring that capital expenditures and all other expenses that do not constitute current, reasonable and necessary operating expenses may not be paid from pledged special revenues prior to the payment of debt service on the PREPA Bonds, and (iii) enjoining defendants from taking or causing to be taken any action that would further violate the special revenue protections provided to the PREPA Bonds under

the Bankruptcy Code; and (iv) ordering defendants to remit the pledged special revenues securing the PREPA Bonds in accordance with the terms of the special revenue provisions set forth in the Bankruptcy Code. On October 13, 2017, AGC and AGM voluntarily withdrew without prejudice the complaint, in order to allow PREPA to focus on emergency efforts to restore electricity to the island's residents and businesses in the wake of Hurricane Maria.

All Puerto Rico exposures are internally rated BIG. The following tables show the Company’s insured exposure to general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.corporations of Puerto Rico.


Puerto Rico
Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding

Gross Par OutstandingGross Debt Service Outstanding
As ofAs of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Exposure to Puerto Rico$976 $1,120 $1,270 $1,526 

17

 Gross Par Outstanding Gross Debt Service Outstanding
 September 30,
2017
 December 31,
2016
 September 30,
2017
 December 31,
2016
 (in millions)
Exposure to Puerto Rico$5,186
 $5,435
 $8,516
 $9,038
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Puerto Rico
Net Par Outstanding (1)

As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures
PREPA$624 $624 
Total Defaulted624 624 
Resolved Puerto Rico Exposures (1)
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue)204 244 
PRHTA (Highway revenue)24 128 
Total Resolved228 372 
Non-Defaulting Puerto Rico Exposures (2)
Municipal Finance Agency (MFA)108 108 
Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) and University of Puerto Rico (U of PR)
Total Non-Defaulting109 109 
Total net exposure to Puerto Rico$961 $1,105 
____________________
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (in millions)
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed   
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (2) (3)$1,419
 $1,476
PBA (2)141
 169
Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback   
PRHTA (Transportation revenue) (2) (3)882
 918
PRHTA (Highways revenue) (2) (3)495
 350
PRCCDA (2)152
 152
PRIFA (2)18
 18
Other Public Corporations   
PREPA (2) (3)853
 724
PRASA373
 373
MFA360
 334
COFINA (2) (3)272
 271
U of PR1
 1
Total net exposure to Puerto Rico$4,966
 $4,786
____________________
(1)The September 30, 2017 amounts include $389 million (which comprises $36 million of General Obligation Bonds, $134 million of PREPA, $144 million of PRHTA (Highways revenue), and $75 million of MFA) related to 2017 commutations of previously ceded business. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for more information.

(1)    Resolved pursuant to the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions (as defined below). In January 2024, $144 million of the remaining PRHTA net par was paid down. All of the Toll Bonds (as defined below) received from the PRHTA under the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions for the insured PRHTA bonds have been sold or redeemed; therefore, the remaining amounts owed for such insured PRHTA bonds are payable in full by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the credit of the PRHTA. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.
(2)    As of the date of this filing, the Company has paid claimsAll debt service on these credits.insured exposures have been paid to date without any insurance claim being made on the Company.


(3)    As of the date of this filing, the Oversight Board has certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for these credits.



The following table shows the scheduled amortization of the insured general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its relatedthe Puerto Rico authorities and public corporations.corporations that the Company insures. The Company guarantees paymentspayment of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis.basis, although in certain circumstances it may elect to do so. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only be required to pay the shortfall between the principal and interestdebt service due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors.



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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Amortization Schedule of Puerto Rico
Net Par Outstanding
and Net Debt Service Outstanding
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024

Scheduled Net Par AmortizationScheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
(in millions)
2024 (April 1 - June 30)$— $
2024 (July 1 - September 30)110 131 
2024 (October 1 - December 31)— 
Subtotal 2024110 137 
202584 124 
2026140 177 
2027120 151 
202881 106 
2029-2033197 281 
2034-2038132 170 
2039-204197 106 
Total$961 $1,252 

 Scheduled Net Par Amortization Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
 (in millions)
2017 (October 1 - December 31)$0
 $3
2018 (January 1 - March 31)0
 123
2018 (April 1 - June 30)0
 3
2018 (July 1 - September 30)200
 322
2018 (October 1 - December 31)0
 3
Subtotal 2018200
 451
2019223
 464
2020285
 516
2021147
 364
2022-20261,045
 1,995
2027-2031981
 1,655
2032-20361,250
 1,669
2037-2041417
 588
2042-2047418
 492
Total$4,966
 $8,197
PREPA



Exposure toAs of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the U.S. Virgin Islands
The Company has $498 million insuredCompany’s net par outstanding toon insured PREPA obligations was $624 million. The Company believes that the U.S. Virgin Islands and its related authorities (USVI), of which it rates $224 million BIG. The $274 million USVI net par the Company rates investment grade is comprised primarily ofPREPA bonds are secured by a lien on matching fundthe revenues relatedof the electric system.

The default of PREPA’s obligations has been the subject of restructuring negotiations, mediation and litigation since 2014. On April 8, 2022, Judge Laura Taylor Swain of the United States District Court of the District of Puerto Rico (Federal District Court of Puerto Rico) issued an order appointing as members of a PREPA mediation team U.S. Bankruptcy Judges Shelley Chapman (lead mediator), Robert Drain and Brendan Shannon. Judge Swain also entered a separate order establishing the terms and conditions of mediation, including that the mediation would terminate on June 1, 2022. Judge Swain has since extended the term of such mediation several times, most recently on May 1, 2024 extending the term to excise taxesJuly 31, 2024. The Financial Oversight and Management Board (the FOMB) which was established under the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) filed an initial plan of adjustment and disclosure statement for PREPA with the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico on products producedDecember 16, 2022.

On March 22, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico held that the PREPA bondholders had perfected liens only in revenues that had been deposited in the USVIsinking fund established under the PREPA trust agreement and exportedrelated funds over which the bond trustee had control but did not have a lien on future revenues until deposited in those funds. The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico also held, however, that PREPA bondholders do have recourse under the PREPA trust agreement in the form of an unsecured net revenue claim. At that time, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico declined to value the unsecured net revenue claim or the method for its determination. The ultimate value of the claim, according to the U.S.Federal District Court of Puerto Rico, should be determined through a claim estimation proceeding.

On June 6-8, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico held a claim estimation proceeding and, on June 26, 2023, issued an opinion and order estimating the unsecured net revenue claim to be $2.4 billion as of July 3, 2017. This estimate included a determination that PREPA’s discounted cash flows, using the FOMB’s base-case incremental net revenues over a 100-year collection period and a discount rate of 7%, primarily rum.would be $3.0 billion, and should be reduced by an additional 20% for collection risk. PREPA bondholders had sought an unsecured net revenue claim of approximately $8.5 billion.

On November 17, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico approved the supplemental disclosure statement (Supplemental Disclosure Statement) supporting the PREPA plan of adjustment filed by the FOMB (as amended or modified from time to time). On February 16, 2024, FOMB filed with the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico its most recent plan of adjustment for PREPA, the Modified Fourth Amended Title III Plan of Adjustment (FOMB PREPA Plan). The $224Supplemental Disclosure Statement and the FOMB PREPA Plan are based on the last revised PREPA fiscal plan certified by the FOMB on June 23, 2023 (2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan).

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
On November 28, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico finally adjudicated all claims and counterclaims in the PREPA lien challenge adversary proceeding. On November 30, 2023, the Company filed a notice of appeal with the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit (First Circuit) for portions of the March 22, 2023 decision, including the lien scope ruling and the need for a claim estimation proceeding, as well as the June 26, 2023 claim estimation ruling. On January 29, 2024, the First Circuit heard oral arguments for the Company’s appeals.

The FOMB PREPA Plan would split bondholders into two groups: one that would settle litigation regarding whether creditor repayment is limited to existing accounts, and another group that would continue litigating whether bondholders are secured by PREPA’s current and future revenue collections. The FOMB PREPA Plan also would further split settling bondholders into two sub-groups: one consisting of certain original settling bondholders that would receive an enhanced recovery (compared to non-settling bondholders) plus other supporting creditor payments, while the second settling sub-group would receive only the enhanced recovery. The FOMB asserts that, other than for pension claims, PREPA’s debt capacity is $2.5 billion, of which approximately $1.4 billion is allocated to settling creditors. The remaining $1.1 billion is allocated to (i) non-settling bondholders, and (ii) general unsecured creditors. The most recent revised FOMB PREPA Plan provides for reduced payments to bondholders since lower projected PREPA revenues are included in the 2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan than had been previously anticipated. The FOMB PREPA Plan estimates that non-settling bondholders will receive a recovery of 12.5% of their allowed unsecured net revenue claim. The Company is opposed to the FOMB PREPA Plan and has joined with a group of non-settling bondholders that continue to litigate the lien scope and claim estimation rulings.

The confirmation hearing for the FOMB PREPA Plan occurred in March 2024. At the end of the hearing, Judge Swain stated that she was taking the confirmation of the FOMB PREPA Plan under advisement and gave no indication of timing for an opinion or order. On April 29, 2024, the Company and other non-settling bondholders filed a motion to reopen the record of the confirmation hearing for the FOMB PREPA Plan to include newly discovered updated forecasts of electricity usage.

Resolved Puerto Rico Exposures

In 2022, as a result of the resolution of the Company’s exposure to insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than PREPA (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions), the Company received cash, new general obligation bonds (New GO Bonds), new bonds backed by toll revenues (Toll Bonds, and together with New GO Bonds, New Recovery Bonds) and contingent value instruments (CVIs). The CVIs are intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries tied to the outperformance of the Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax receipts against May 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, subject to annual and lifetime caps. Cash, New Recovery Bonds and CVIs received pursuant to the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions are collectively referred to as Plan Consideration. As of March 31, 2024, all but $272 million BIG USVIin CVIs (at fair value) had been sold or redeemed. As of March 31, 2024, remaining CVIs are reported in fixed-maturity securities, trading. See Note 7, Investments. The Company may sell in the future any CVIs it continues to hold.

As of March 31, 2024, the Company had $228 million of insured net par comprises (a) Publicoutstanding of legacy PRHTA bonds. This net par outstanding primarily represents the Company’s exposure in respect of legacy insured PRHTA bondholders who elected to receive custody receipts that represent an interest in the legacy insurance policy plus Plan Consideration, as described below. The remaining amounts owed for insured PRHTA bonds are payable in full by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the credit of PRHTA. The Company consolidates the trusts in which the PRHTA obligations are reported. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Certain insured bondholders elected to receive custody receipts representing an interest in custodial trusts that hold the legacy insurance policy plus Plan Consideration that were reported in FG VIEs’ assets at the time of the receipt. The Company’s insurance policy continues to guarantee principal and interest coming due on the legacy insured bonds in accordance with the terms of such insurance policy on the originally scheduled legacy bond interest and principal payment dates.

Non-Defaulting Puerto Rico Exposures

As of March 31, 2024, and December 31, 2023, the Company had $109 million of remaining non-defaulting Puerto Rico net par outstanding related primarily to the Municipal Finance Authority bondsAgency (MFA). The MFA exposures are secured by a gross receiptslien on local tax revenues and the general obligation, full faith and credit pledgeremain current on debt service payments.

20

Table of the USVI and (b) bonds of the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority secured by a net revenue pledge of the electric system.Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Puerto Rico Litigation
 
Hurricane Irma caused significant damage in St. John    Currently, there are numerous legal actions relating to the default by the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and St. Thomas, while Hurricane Maria made landfallcertain of its instrumentalities on St. Croix as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing loss of life and substantial damage to St. Croix’s businesses and infrastructure, including the power grid. The USVI is benefiting from the federal response to this year’s hurricanes and has made its debt service payments, and related matters, and the Company is a party to date.

Exposurea number of them. The Company has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to the Selected European Countries

The European countries whereremaining Puerto Rico obligations it still insures. In addition, the Commonwealth, the FOMB and others have taken legal action naming the Company has exposureas party.

Certain legal actions involving the Company and believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Turkey (collectively, the Selected European Countries). The Company’s direct economic exposurerelating to the Selected European Countries, basedCommonwealth, Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority, Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority or PRHTA, were resolved on par, is shownMarch 15, 2022, and all remaining legal actions involving the Company and relating to PRHTA were resolved on December 6, 2022, in connection with the consummation of the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions. There remains one active proceeding related to PREPA, while there are a number of unresolved proceedings involving the Company and relating to the default by the Commonwealth or its instrumentalities that remain stayed pending the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico’s determination on the PREPA plan of adjustment.

The remaining active proceeding was initiated by the FOMB in the following table, netFederal District Court of ceded reinsurance.



Net Direct Economic ExposurePuerto Rico on July 1, 2019 against U.S. Bank National Association, as trustee for PREPA’s bonds, objecting to Selected European Countries(1)
Asand challenging the validity, enforceability, and extent of prepetition security interests securing those bonds and seeking other relief. On September 30, 20172022, the FOMB filed an amended complaint against the trustee (i) objecting to and challenging the validity, enforceability, and extent of prepetition security interests securing PREPA’s bonds and (ii) arguing that PREPA bondholders’ recourse was limited to certain deposit accounts held by the trustee. On October 7, 2022, the court approved a stipulation permitting AGM and AGC to intervene as defendants. Summary judgment motions were filed by plaintiffs and defendants on October 24, 2022. On March 22, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico granted in part and denied in part each party’s cross-motions for summary judgment. The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico found that the PREPA bondholders had perfected liens only in revenues that had been deposited in the sinking fund established under the PREPA trust agreement and related funds over which the bond trustee had control. The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico also held that the PREPA bondholders do have recourse under the trust agreement in the form of an unsecured net revenue claim. In a June 26, 2023 opinion, the court estimated the PREPA bondholders’ allowed unsecured net revenue claim to be $2.4 billion, which the court calculated by largely adopting the conclusions in the FOMB’s expert report. On May 3, 2023, the court denied PREPA bondholders’ request to certify their interlocutory appeal of the finding that the PREPA bondholders had perfected liens only in revenues that had been deposited in the sinking fund established under the PREPA trust agreement and related funds over which the bond trustee had control. On May 15, 2023, the FOMB filed its motion to dismiss the trustee’s and bondholders’ counterclaims, which was granted by the court on November 28, 2023. AGM and AGC filed a notice of appeal on November 30, 2023. On January 29, 2024, the First Circuit heard oral arguments for the Company’s appeals.


 Hungary Italy Portugal Spain Turkey Total
 (in millions)
Sub-sovereign exposure(2)$214
 $1,034
 $75
 $456
 $
 $1,779
Non-sovereign exposure(3)125
 449
 
 
 200
 774
Total$339
 $1,483
 $75
 $456
 $200
 $2,553
Total BIG (See Note 5)$262
 $
 $75
 $456
 $
 $793
____________________
(1)
While exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations are in various currencies, primarily euros.
(2)
Sub-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes transactions backed by receivables from, or supported by, sub-sovereigns, which are governmental or government-backed entities other than the ultimate governing body of the country.

(3)
Non-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes debt of regulated utilities, RMBS and diversified payment rights (DPR) securitizations.

WhenThe unresolved proceedings initiated in the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico involving the Company directly insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. The Company may also have direct exposuresand relating to the Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies, in which case the Company depends upon geographic information provideddefault by the primary insurer.Commonwealth or its instrumentalities that remain stayed pending the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico’s determination on the PREPA plan of adjustment are:


The Company's $200 million net insured par exposureAGM and AGC motion to compel the FOMB to certify the PREPA restructuring support agreement executed in Turkey isMay 2019 (PREPA RSA) for implementation under Title VI of PROMESA.

AGM and AGC motion to DPR securitizations sponsored by a major Turkish bank. These DPR securitizations were established outside of Turkey and involve payment ordersdismiss PREPA’s Title III Bankruptcy proceeding or, in U.S. dollars, pounds sterling and euros from persons outside of Turkeythe alternative, to beneficiaries in Turkey who are customers oflift the sponsoring bank. The sponsoring bank's correspondent banks have agreedPROMESA automatic stay to remit all such payments to a trustee-controlled account outside Turkey, where debt service paymentsallow for the DPR securitizationappointment of a receiver.

Adversary complaint by certain fuel line lenders of PREPA against AGM and AGC, among other parties, including various PREPA bondholders and bond insurers, seeking, among other things, declarations that there is no valid lien securing the PREPA bonds unless and until such lenders are given priority over paymentspaid in full, as well as orders subordinating the PREPA bondholders’ lien and claims to such lenders’ claims, and declaring the PREPA RSA null and void.

AGM and AGC motion to intervene in lawsuit by the retirement system for PREPA employees against, among others, the FOMB, PREPA, the Commonwealth, and the trustee for PREPA bondholders seeking, among other things, declarations that there is no valid lien securing the PREPA bonds other than on amounts in the sinking funds, and order subordinating the PREPA bondholders’ lien and claim to the sponsoring bank. PREPA employees’ claims.


21

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Specialty Business

The Company has excluded from the exposure tables abovealso guarantees specialty business with risk profiles similar to those of its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through policies it provides on pooled corporate and commercial receivables transactions. The Company calculates indirect exposure to a country by multiplying the par amount of a transaction insured by the Company times the percent of the relevant collateral pool reported as having a nexus to the country. On that basis, the Company has calculated exposure of $46 million to Selected European Countries in transactions with $0.7 billion of net par outstanding.

Non-Financial Guaranty Insurance

The Company provided capital relief triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance on approximately $540 million of exposure as of September 30, 2017 and $390 million as of December 31, 2016. The triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance exposure is expected to increase to approximately $1.2 billion prior to September 30, 2036.

In addition, the Company started providing reinsurance on aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) policies in the first quarter of 2017 and had net exposure of $116 million to such reinsurance as of September 30, 2017.

The capital relief triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance and aircraft residual value reinsurance are all rated investment grade internally. This non-financial guaranty exposure has a similar risk profile to the Company's other structured finance investment grade exposureexposures written in financial guaranty form.



Specialty Business
5.Expected Loss to be Paid
As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
Gross ExposureNet ExposureGross ExposureNet Exposure
(in millions)
Insurance securitizations (1)$1,398 $1,067 $1,370 $1,043 
Aircraft residual value insurance355 200 355 200 
Other guaranties2,001 2,001 2,057 2,057 
____________________
(1)    Insurance securitizations exposure is projected to reach $1.5 billion gross in 2025 and $1.2 billion net in 2026.

All exposures in the table above are rated investment-grade, except gross exposure of $144 million and net exposure of $84 million of aircraft residual value insurance as of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

Other guaranties in specialty business include an excess-of-loss guaranty of a minimum amount of billed rent on a diversified portfolio of real estate properties with an internal rating of AA that matures in 2042. The Company’s maximum potential exposure under this guaranty, which is accounted for in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees, was $1.5 billion as of March 31, 2024.

4.    Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
 
    Net expected loss to be paid (recovered) is equal to the present value of expected future cash outflows for loss and
LAE payments, net of: (i) inflows for expected salvage, subrogation and other recoveries; (ii) excess spread on underlying
collateral, as applicable; and (iii) amounts ceded to reinsurers. Cash flows are discounted at current risk-free rates. The Company updates the discount rates each quarter and reflects the effect of such changes in economic loss development.

Expected cash outflows and inflows are probability weighted cash flows that reflect management’s assumptions about the likelihood of all possible outcomes based on all information available to the Company. Those assumptions consider the relevant facts and circumstances and are consistent with the information tracked and monitored through the Company’s surveillance and risk management functions. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) is important in that it represents the present value of amounts that the Company expects to pay or recover in future periods for all contracts.

Insured obligations with expected losses that were purchased by the Company are referred to as Loss Estimation ProcessMitigation Securities and are recorded in the investment portfolio at fair value, excluding the value of the Company’s insurance. Concurrently, the Company reduces any related expected loss to be paid (recovered). For Loss Mitigation Securities, the difference between the purchase price of the insured obligation and the fair value excluding the value of the Company’s insurance (on the date of acquisition) is treated as a paid loss. See Note 7, Investments, and Note 9, Fair Value Measurement.


Similarly, in cases where issuers of insured obligations elected (or where an issuer and the Company negotiated) to deliver the underlying collateral, insured obligation, or a new security to the Company, expected loss to be paid (recovered) is adjusted accordingly and the asset received is prospectively accounted for under the applicable guidance for that instrument.

Economic loss development represents the change in net expected loss to be paid (recovered) attributable to the effects of changes in the economic performance of insured transactions, changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts.

In order to effectively evaluate and manage the economics and liquidity of the entire insured portfolio, management assigns ratings and calculates expected loss to be paid (recovered), on a contract-by-contract basis, in the same manner for all its exposures regardless of form or differing accounting models. The exposure reported in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, includes policies accounted for under various accounting models depending on the characteristics of the contract and the Company’s control rights. The three primary models are: (i) insurance, as described in Note 5, Contracts Accounted for as Insurance; (ii) derivatives, as described in Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, and Note 9, Fair Value Measurement; and (iii) FG VIE consolidation, as described in Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and
22

Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Consolidated Investment Vehicles. The Company has paid and expects to pay future losses and/or recover past losses on policies which fall under each of these accounting models. This note provides information regarding expected claim payments to be made and/or recovered under all contracts in the insured portfolio, regardless of the accounting model.portfolio.

Loss Estimation Process

    The Company’s loss reserve committees estimate expected loss to be paid (recovered) for all contracts by reviewing analyses that consider various scenarios with corresponding probabilities assigned to them. Depending upon the naturecharacteristics of the risk, the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, that analysis may be based upon individually developed cash flow models, internal credit rating assessments, and sector-driven loss severity assumptions and/or judgmental assessments. In the case of its assumed business, the Company may conduct its own analysis as just described or, depending on the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, the Company may use loss estimates provided by ceding insurers. The Company monitors the performance of its transactions with expected losses and eachEach quarter, the Company’s loss reserve committees review and refresh their loss projection assumptions, and scenarios and the probabilities they assign to those scenarios based on actual developments during the quarterperiod and their view of future performance.
The financial guaranties issued by the Company insure the credit performance of the guaranteed obligations over an extended period of time, in some cases over 30 years, and in most circumstances the Company has no right to cancel such financial guaranties. As a result, the Company'sCompany’s estimate of ultimate lossesloss on a policy is subject to significant uncertainty over the life of the insured transaction. Credit performance can be adversely affected by, among other things, economic, fiscal and financial market variabilityand political developments over the long life of most contracts.


    The Company does not use traditional actuarial approaches to determine its estimates of expected losses. The determination of expected loss to be paid (recovered) is an inherently subjective process involving numerous estimates, assumptions and judgments by management, using both internal and external data sources with regard to frequency, and severity of loss, economic projections, governmental actions, legal developments, negotiations, recovery rates, delinquency and prepayment rates, timing of cash flows and other factors that affect credit performance. These estimates, assumptions and judgments, and the factors on which they are based, may change materially over a reporting period, and have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements. Each quarter, the Company may revise its scenarios and update its assumptions, including the probability weightings of its scenarios, based on public as well as nonpublic information obtained through its surveillance and loss mitigation activities.

    Changes over a resultreporting period in the Company’s loss estimates for public finance obligations supported by specified revenue streams, such as revenue bonds issued by toll road authorities, municipal utilities or airport authorities, generally will be influenced by factors impacting their revenue levels, such as changes in demand; changing demographics; and other economic factors, especially if the obligations do not benefit from financial support from other tax revenues or governmental authorities. Changes over a reporting period in the Company’s loss estimates for its tax-supported and general obligation public finance transactions generally will be influenced by factors impacting the public issuer’s ability and willingness to pay, such as changes in the economy and population of the relevant area; changes in the issuer’s ability or willingness to raise taxes, decrease spending or receive federal assistance; new legislation; rating agency actions that affect the issuer’s ability to refinance maturing obligations or issue new debt at a reasonable cost; changes in the priority or amount of pensions and other obligations owed to workers; developments in restructuring or settlement negotiations; and other political and economic factors. Changes in loss estimates may change materiallyalso be affected by the Company’s loss mitigation efforts and other variables.

    Changes in the Company’s loss estimates for structured finance transactions generally will be influenced by factors impacting the performance of the assets supporting those transactions. For example, changes over that same period.a reporting period in the Company’s loss estimates for its RMBS transactions may be influenced by factors such as the level and timing of loan defaults experienced, changes in housing prices, results from the Company’s loss mitigation activities and other variables.


The Company does not use traditional actuarial approaches    Net economic loss development (benefit) over a reporting period may be attributable to determine its estimatesa number of expected losses.interrelated factors such as changes in discount rates, improvement or deterioration of transaction performance, changes in charge-offs, loss mitigation activity, changes to projected default curves, changes in severity rates and outcome of disputed issues. Actual losses will ultimately depend on future events, or transaction performance and may be influenced by many interrelatedor other factors that are difficult to predict. As a result, the Company'sCompany’s current projections of certain losses may be subject to considerable volatilityuncertainty and may not reflect the Company'sCompany’s ultimate claims paid. For information on

23

Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
In some instances, the Company's loss estimation process, please referterms of the Company’s policy or the terms of certain workout orders and resolutions give it the option to Note 5,pay principal losses that have been recognized in the transaction but which it is not yet required to pay, thereby reducing the amount of guaranteed interest due in the future. The Company has sometimes exercised this option, which results in an acceleration of cash outflows but reduces overall losses paid.

Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) and Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
by Accounting Model
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
As ofFirst Quarter
Accounting ModelMarch 31, 2024December 31, 202320242023
 (in millions)
Insurance (see Note 5)$191 $263 $(7)$
FG VIEs (see Note 8) (1)241 240 — 
Credit derivatives (see Note 6)— — 
Total$433 $505 $(7)$11 
____________________
(1)    The net expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs primarily relates to trusts established as part of Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data in AGL's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016.2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions (Puerto Rico Trusts) that were consolidated.



The following tables present a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for all contracts, whetherwhich are accounted for asunder one of the following accounting models: insurance, credit derivatives or financial guaranty (FG) VIEs, by sector, after the expected recoveries/ (payables) for breaches of representationsderivative and warranties (R&W) and other expected recoveries.FG VIE. The Company used risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations that ranged from 0.0%4.14% to 2.94%5.33% with a weighted average of 2.27%4.44% as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and 0.0%3.79% to 3.23%5.40% with a weighted average of 2.73%4.10% as of December 31, 2016.2023. Net expected losses to be paid for U.S. dollar denominated transactions represented approximately 95.5% and 96.1% of the total as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.


Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
Roll Forward

 First Quarter
20242023
 (in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period$505 $522 
Economic loss development (benefit) due to:
Accretion of discount
Changes in discount rates(3)10 
Changes in timing and assumptions(9)(4)
Total economic loss development (benefit)(7)11 
Net (paid) recovered losses(65)(16)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period$433 $517 
24

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid, beginning of period$1,297
 $1,326
 $1,198
 $1,391
Net expected loss to be paid on the MBIA UK portfolio as of January 10, 2017
 
 21
 
Net expected loss to be paid on the CIFG portfolio as of July 1, 2016
 22
 
 22
Economic loss development (benefit) due to:       
Accretion of discount8
 5
 24
 20
Changes in discount rates(6) (29) 28
 79
Changes in timing and assumptions202
 (20) 246
 (62)
Total economic loss development (benefit)204
 (44) 298
 37
Net (paid) recovered losses(209) (214) (225) (360)
Net expected loss to be paid, end of period$1,292
 $1,090
 $1,292
 $1,090
Table of Contents

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Expected LossNotes to be PaidCondensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Roll Forward by Sector
Third Quarter 2017
 Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
June 30, 2017
 
Economic Loss
Development / (Benefit)
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 Net Expected
Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of
September 30, 2017 (2)
 (in millions)
Public finance:       
U.S. public finance$1,044
 $229
 $(227) $1,046
Non-U.S. public finance42
 0
 5
 47
Public finance1,086
 229
 (222) 1,093
Structured finance:       
U.S. RMBS182
 (19) 13
 176
Triple-X life insurance transactions(4) (1) (2) (7)
Other structured finance33
 (5) 2
 30
Structured finance211
 (25) 13
 199
Total$1,297
 $204
 $(209) $1,292


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
Roll Forward by Sector
Third Quarter 2016

 Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
June 30, 2016
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) on CIFG as of
July 1, 2016
 Economic Loss
Development / (Benefit)
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
September 30, 2016
 (in millions)
Public finance:         
U.S. public finance$963
 $40
 $9
 $(196) $816
Non-U.S. public finance37
 2
 (1) 
 38
Public finance1,000
 42
 8
 (196) 854
Structured finance: 
    
  
  
U.S. RMBS192
 (22) (27) 5
 148
Triple-X life insurance transactions100
 
 (23) (23) 54
Other structured finance34
 2
 (2) 0
 34
Structured finance326
 (20) (52) (18) 236
Total$1,326
 $22
 $(44) $(214) $1,090



Net Expected Loss to be Paid
Roll Forward by Sector
Nine Months 2017
 Net Expected
Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of
December 31, 2016 (2)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid
on MBIA UK
as of
January 10, 2017
 Economic Loss
Development / (Benefit)
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 Net Expected
Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of
September 30, 2017 (2)
 (in millions)
Public finance:         
U.S. public finance$871
 $
 $431
 $(256) $1,046
Non-U.S. public finance33
 13
 (4) 5
 47
Public finance904
 13
 427
 (251) 1,093
Structured finance:         
U.S. RMBS206
 
 (70) 40
 176
Triple-X life insurance transactions54
 
 (56) (5) (7)
Other structured finance34
 8
 (3) (9) 30
Structured finance294
 8
 (129) 26
 199
Total$1,198
 $21
 $298
 $(225) $1,292


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
Roll Forward by Sector
Nine Months 2016

 Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
December 31, 2015
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) on CIFG as of
July 1, 2016
 Economic Loss
Development / (Benefit)
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
September 30, 2016
 (in millions)
Public finance:         
U.S. public finance$771
 $40
 $218
 $(213) $816
Non-U.S. public finance38
 2
 (2) 
 38
Public finance809
 42
 216
 (213) 854
Structured finance: 
    
  
  
U.S. RMBS409
 (22) (139) (100) 148
Triple-X life insurance transactions99
 
 (21) (24) 54
Other structured finance74
 2
 (19) (23) 34
Structured finance582
 (20) (179) (147) 236
Total$1,391
 $22
 $37
 $(360) $1,090
____________________
(1)
Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded in reinsurance recoverable on paid losses included in other assets. The Company paid $7 million and $3 million inLAE for Third Quarter 2017 and 2016, respectively and $16 million and $12 million in LAE for Nine Months 2017 and 2016, respectively.

(2)Includes expected LAE to be paid of $23 million as of September 30, 2017 and $12 million as of December 31, 2016.


The following table presents the present value of net expected loss to be paid and the net economic loss development for all contracts by accounting model.

Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) and
Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)Roll Forward by Sector
By Accounting Model
First Quarter 2024
SectorNet Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2023Net Economic Loss
Development (Benefit)
Net (Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2024
 (in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$398 $(3)$(17)$378 
Non-U.S. public finance20 — — 20 
Public finance418 (3)(17)398 
Structured finance:   
U.S. RMBS43 (3)(42)(2)
Other structured finance44 (1)(6)37 
Structured finance87 (4)(48)35 
Total$505 $(7)$(65)$433 



 Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
 As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016 Third Quarter 2017 Third Quarter 2016 Nine Months 2017 Nine Months 2016
 (in millions)
Financial guaranty insurance$1,205
 $1,083
 $207
 $(35) $328
 $66
FG VIEs (1) and other93
 105
 (2) (3) (6) (6)
Credit derivatives (2)(6) 10
 (1) (6) (24) (23)
Total$1,292
 $1,198
 $204
 $(44) $298
 $37
First Quarter 2023
SectorNet Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2022Net Economic Loss
Development (Benefit)
Net (Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$403 $$(24)$380 
Non-U.S. public finance— 13 
Public finance412 (24)393 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS66 11 82 
Other structured finance44 (3)42 
Structured finance110 124 
Total$522 $11 $(16)$517 
_______________________________________
(1)    Refer to Note 9, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded as reinsurance recoverable on paid losses in “other assets.”

(2)    Refer to Note 8, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives.


Selected U.S. Public Finance Transactions

The Company insures general obligation bondstables above include (i) net LAE paid of the Commonwealth$7 million and $3 million for first quarter 2024 and first quarter 2023, respectively, and (ii) net expected LAE to be paid of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.0 billion net par$16 million as of September 30, 2017, all of which are BIG. For additional information regarding the Company's exposure to general obligations of Commonwealth of Puerto RicoMarch 31, 2024 and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, please refer to "Exposure to Puerto Rico" in Note 4, Outstanding Exposure.

As of September 30, 2017, the Company has insured $346 million net par outstanding of general obligation bonds issued by the City of Hartford, Connecticut, which has recently experienced financial distress.  The Company rates $345 million net par of that BIG, with the remainder being a second-to-pay policy rated investment grade. The mayor of Hartford announced that the city would be unable to meet its financial obligations by early November 2017 if the State of Connecticut failed to enact a budget, and hired bankruptcy consultants.  On October 31, 2017, the State adopted a budget providing for substantial payments to the City, placing the City under State oversight and providing an avenue for the City to issue debt backed by the State.
The Company has approximately $19 million of net par exposure as of September 30, 2017 to bonds issued by Parkway East Public Improvement District (District), which is located in Madison County, Mississippi (the County). The bonds, which are rated BIG, are payable from special assessments on properties within the District, as well as amounts paid under a contribution agreement with the County in which the County covenants that it will provide funds in the event special assessments are not sufficient to make a debt service payment. The special assessments have not been sufficient to pay debt service in full. In earlier years, the County provided funding to cover the balance of the debt service requirement, but subsequently claimed the District’s failure to reimburse it within the two years stipulated in the contribution agreement means that the County is not required to provide funding until it is reimbursed.  On May 31, 2017, the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit reversed a district court ruling favorable to the Company in its declaratory judgment action disputing the County’s interpretation. See “Recovery Litigation” below.

On February 25, 2015, a plan of adjustment resolving the bankruptcy filing of the City of Stockton, California under chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code became effective. As of September 30, 2017, the Company’s net par subject to the plan consists of $113 million of pension obligation bonds. As part of the plan of adjustment, the City will repay any claims paid on the pension obligation bonds from certain fixed payments and certain variable payments contingent on the City’s revenue growth. 


The Company projects that its total net expected loss across its troubled U.S. public finance credits as of September 30, 2017 including those mentioned above, which incorporated the likelihood of the various outcomes, will be $1.0 billion, compared with a net expected loss of $871$22 million as of December 31, 2016. Economic loss development in Third Quarter 2017 was $229 million2023, respectively.

Public Finance

The largest component of the public finance net expected losses to be paid (recovered) and net economic loss development for Nine Months 2017 was $431 million, which was primarily attributable to(benefit) are U.S. exposures, including Puerto Rico exposures.

Selected Non - U.S. Public Finance Transactions

exposures, which are discussed in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure. The Company insures and reinsures credits with sub-sovereign exposure to various Spanish and Portuguese issuers where a Spanish and Portuguese sovereign default may cause the sub-sovereigns also to default. The Company's exposuretotal net of reinsurance to these Spanish and Portuguese credits is $456 million and $75 million, respectively. The Company rates all of these exposures BIG due to the financial condition of Spain and Portugal and their dependence on the sovereign. The Company's Hungary exposure is to infrastructure bonds dependent on payments from Hungarian governmental entities. The Company's exposure, net of reinsurance, to these Hungarian credits is $214 million, all of which is rated BIG.
As part of the MBIA UK Acquisition, the Company now also insures an obligation backed by the availability and toll revenues of a major arterial road into a city in the U.K. with $218 million of net par outstanding as of September 30, 2017. This transaction has been underperforming due to lower traffic volume and higher costs compared with expectations at underwriting.

These transactions, together with other non-U.S. public finance insured obligations, had expected loss to be paid for troubled U.S. public finance exposures is net of $47 million asa credit for estimated future recoveries of September 30, 2017, compared with $33 million asclaims already paid. As of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016.2023, that credit was $193 million. The MBIA UK Acquisition added $13 million ofCompany’s net expected loss aslosses to be paid (recovered) incorporate management’s probability weighted estimates of January 2017. There was little economic loss development during Third Quarter 2017. The economic benefitall possible scenarios.

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Table of approximately $4 million during Nine Months 2017 was due mainlyContents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to the improved internal outlook of certain European sovereigns and sub-sovereign entities.Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued

Approach to Projecting Losses in U.S. RMBS Loss Projections
 
The Company projects losses on its insured U.S. RMBS on a transaction-by-transaction basis by projecting the performance of the underlying pool of mortgages over time and then applying the structural features (i.e.(e.g., payment priorities and tranching) of the RMBS and any expected R&W recoveriesrepresentation and warranty recoveries/payables to the projected performance of the collateral over time. The resulting projected claim payments or reimbursements are then discounted using risk-free rates.

Third Quarter 2017 U.S.Each period the Company reviews the assumptions it uses to make RMBS Loss Projections

Basedloss projections with consideration of updates on its observation during the period of the performance of its insured transactions (including early-stage delinquencies, liquidation rateslate-stage delinquencies and loss severities)severity) as well as the residential property market and economy in general,general. To the Company choseextent it observes changes, it makes a judgment as to makewhether those changes are normal fluctuations or part of a more prolonged trend. The assumptions that the changes to the assumptions itCompany uses to project RMBS losses are shown in the tables of assumptions in the sections below.

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
U.S. RMBS
First Quarter
20242023
 (in millions)
First lien U.S. RMBS$(1)$— 
Second lien U.S. RMBS(2)

First Lien U.S. RMBS Loss Projections: Alt-A, First Lien,Prime, Option ARM Subprime and PrimeSubprime


     The majority of projected losses in first lien U.S. RMBS transactions are expected to come from non-performing mortgage loans (those that are or in the past twelve months have recently been two or more payments behind, have been modified, are in foreclosure, or have been foreclosed upon). Changes in the amount of non-performing loans from the amount projected in the previous period are one of the primary drivers of loss developmentprojections in this portfolio. Collateral losses are projected to be offset by recoveries on deferred principal balance. In order to determineproject the number of defaults resultingarising from these delinquent and foreclosed loans, the Company applies a liquidation rate assumption to loans in each of various non-performing categories. The Company arrived at its liquidation rates based on data purchased from a third partythird-party provider and assumptions about how delays in the foreclosure process and loan modifications may ultimately affect the rate at which loans are liquidated. Each quarter the Company reviews the most recent twelve months of this data and (if necessary) adjusts its liquidation rates based on its observations. The following table shows liquidation assumptions for various non-performing and re-performing categories.



First Lien U.S. RMBS Liquidation Rates

As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
Range (1)Range (1)
Current but recently delinquent20%20%
30 – 59 Days Delinquent30 %35%30 %35%
60 – 89 Days Delinquent40 %45%40 %45%
90+ Days Delinquent45 %60%45 %60%
Bankruptcy40 %50%40 %50%
Foreclosure55 %65%55 %65%
Real Estate Owned100%100%
____________________
 September 30, 2017 June 30, 2017 December 31, 2016
Delinquent/Modified in the Previous 12 Months     
Alt A and Prime20% 20% 25%
Option ARM20 20 25
Subprime20 20 25
30 – 59 Days Delinquent     
Alt A and Prime30 30 35
Option ARM35 35 35
Subprime40 40 40
60 – 89 Days Delinquent     
Alt A and Prime40 40 45
Option ARM45 45 50
Subprime50 45 50
90+ Days Delinquent     
Alt A and Prime50 50 55
Option ARM55 55 55
Subprime55 55 55
Bankruptcy     
Alt A and Prime45 45 45
Option ARM50 50 50
Subprime40 40 40
Foreclosure     
Alt A and Prime65 60 65
Option ARM65 65 65
Subprime65 65 65
Real Estate Owned     
All100 100 100
(1)    The ranges represent variation in calculated liquidation rates across RMBS sectors.


While the Company uses the liquidation rates as described above to project defaults of non-performing loans (including current loans that were recently modified or delinquent within the last 12 months)delinquent), it projects defaults on presently current loans by applying a conditional default rate (CDR) trend.curve. The start of that CDR trendcurve is based on the defaults the Company projects will emerge from currently nonperforming, recently nonperforming and modified loans. The total amount of expected defaults from the non-performing loans is translated into a constant CDR (i.e.(i.e., the CDR plateau), which, if applied for each of the next 36 months, would be sufficient to produce approximatelyresults in the amountprojection of the defaults that were calculatedare expected to emerge from the various delinquency categories. The CDR thus calculated individually on the delinquent collateral pool for each RMBS is then used as the starting point for the CDR curve used to project defaults of the presently performing loans.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
 
In the most heavily weighted scenario (the base case)scenario), after the initial 36-month36-month CDR plateau period, each transaction’s CDR is projected to improve over 12 months to an intermediate CDR (calculated as 20% of its CDR plateau); that intermediate CDR is held constant for 36 months and then trails off in steps to a final CDR of 5% of the CDR plateau. In the base case,scenario, the Company assumes the final CDR will be reached 5.75 yearsone year after the initial 36-month CDR plateau period. Under the Company’s methodology, defaults projected to occur in the first 36 months represent defaults that can be attributed to loans that were recently modified or delinquent, in the last 12 months or that are currently delinquent or in foreclosure, while the defaults projected to occur using the projected CDR trend after the first 36 month36-month period represent defaults attributable to borrowers that are currently performing or are projected to reperform.re-perform.


     Another important driver of loss projections is loss severity, which is the amount of loss the transaction incurs on a loan after the application of net proceeds from the disposal of the underlying property. LossThe Company assumes in the base scenario that recent (still historically elevated) loss severities experienced in first lien transactions have reached historically high levels,will improve after loans with accumulated delinquencies and theforeclosure cost are liquidated. The Company is assuming in the base casescenario that these highrecent severity levels

generally will continue for another 18 months. The Company determines its initial loss severity based on actual recent experience. Each quarter, the Company reviews available data and (if necessary) adjusts its severities based on its observations. The Company then assumes that loss severities begin returning to levels consistent with underwriting assumptions beginning after the initial 18 month18-month period, declining to 40% in the base casescenario over 2.5 years.

The Company incorporates a recovery assumption into its loss modeling to reflect observed trends in recoveries of deferred principal balances of modified first lien loans. For transactions where the Company has detailed loan information, the Company assumes, in the base scenario, that 30% of the deferred loan balances will eventually be recovered upon sale of the collateral or refinancing of the loans.
 
The following table shows the range as well as the average, weighted by outstanding net insured par, for key assumptions used in the calculation of expected loss to be paid (recovered) for individual transactions for direct vintage 2004 - 2008 first lien U.S. RMBS.


Key Assumptions in Base CaseScenario Expected Loss Estimates
First Lien RMBS(1)U.S. RMBS
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of June 30, 2017 As of
December 31, 2016
 Range Weighted Average Range Weighted Average Range Weighted Average
Alt A and Prime                 
Plateau CDR1.0%-11.0% 5.1% 1.1%-10.3% 5.1% 1.0%13.5% 5.7%
Final CDR0.0%-0.5% 0.3% 0.1%-0.5% 0.3% 0.0%0.7% 0.3%
Initial loss severity:             
2005 and prior60%   60%   60%  
200680%   80%   80%  
2007+70%   70%   70%  
Option ARM                 
Plateau CDR2.4%-6.6% 5.3% 3.7%-6.7% 5.4% 3.2%7.0% 5.6%
Final CDR0.1%-0.3% 0.3% 0.2%-0.3% 0.3% 0.2%0.3% 0.3%
Initial loss severity:             
2005 and prior60%   60%   60%  
200670%   70%   70%  
2007+75%   75%   75%  
Subprime                 
Plateau CDR3.6%-13.1% 7.9% 3.8%-13.1% 7.8% 2.8%14.1% 8.1%
Final CDR0.2%-0.7% 0.4% 0.2%-0.7% 0.4% 0.1%0.7% 0.4%
Initial loss severity:             
2005 and prior80%   80%   80%  
200690%   90%   90%  
2007+95%   95%   90%  
____________________
(1)Represents variables for the base case.

 As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
RangeWeighted AverageRangeWeighted Average
Plateau CDR0.0 %-11.8%4.1%0.0 %-10.0%4.2%
Final CDR0.0 %-0.6%0.2%0.0 %-0.5%0.2%
Initial loss severity50%50%
 
The rate at which the principal amount of loans is voluntarily prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected (since that amount is a function of the CDR, the loss severity and the loan balance over time) as well as the amount of excess spread (the amount by which the interest paid by the borrowers on the underlying loan exceeds the amount of interest owed on the insured obligations). The assumption for the voluntary conditional prepayment rate (CPR) follows a pattern similar pattern to that of the CDR. The current level of voluntary prepayments is assumed to continue for the plateau period before gradually increasing over 12 months to the final CPR, which is assumed to be 15% in the base case.scenario. For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used. These CPR assumptions are the same as those the Company used for June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016.2023.
 
In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted sensitivities for first lien U.S. RMBS transactions by varying its assumptions of how fast a recovery is expected to occur. One of the variables used to model sensitivities was how quickly the CDR returned to its modeled equilibrium, which was defined as 5% of the initial CDR.CDR plateau. The Company also

stressed CPR and the speed of recovery of loss severity rates. The Company probability weighted a total of five scenarios as of September 30, 2017. March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

Certain transactions benefit from excess spread when they are supported by large portions of fixed rate assets (either originally fixed or modified to be fixed) but have insured floating rate debt linked to the Secured Overnight Finance Rate (SOFR). An increase in projected SOFR decreases excess spread, while lower SOFR projections result in higher excess spread.

The Company used a similar approach to establish its pessimistic and optimistic scenarios as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 as it used as of June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016,2023, increasing and decreasing the periods and levels of stress from those used in the base case.
scenario. In the Company'sCompany’s most
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
stressful scenario where 10% of deferred principal balances are assumed to be recovered, loss severities were assumed to rise and then recover over nine years and the initial ramp-down of the CDR was assumed to occur over 1516 months, expected loss to be paid would increase from current projections by approximately $24$28 million for Alt-Aall first liens, $9 million for Option ARM, $41 million for subprime and $1 million for primelien U.S. RMBS transactions.

In the Company'sCompany’s least stressful scenario where 50% of deferred principal balances are assumed to be recovered, the CDR plateau was six months shorter (30 months, effectively assuming that liquidation rates would improve) and the CDR recovery was more pronounced (including an initial ramp-down of the CDR over nineeight months), expected loss to be paid would decrease from current projections by approximately $11$20 million for Alt-Aall first liens, $21 million for Option ARM, $22 million for subprime and $0.1 million for primelien U.S. RMBS transactions.


U.S. Second Lien U.S. RMBS Loss Projections
 
Second lien U.S. RMBS transactions include both home equity lines of credit (HELOC) and closed end second lien mortgages. The Company believes the primary variable affecting its expected losses in second lien U.S. RMBS transactions is the amount and timing of future losses or recoveries in the collateral pool supporting the transactions.transactions (including recoveries from previously charged-off loans). Expected losses are also a function of the structure of the transaction, the voluntary prepayment rate (typically also referred to as CPRspeeds of the collateral),collateral, the interest rate environment and assumptions about loss severity.
 
In second lien transactions the projection of near-term defaults from currently delinquent loans is relatively straightforward because loans in second lien transactions are generally “charged off” (treated as defaulted) by the securitization’s servicer once the loan is 180 days past due. The Company estimates the amount of loans that will default over the next six monthsseveral years by first calculating current representativeexpected liquidation rates. Arates for delinquent loans, and applying liquidation rate is the percent ofrates to currently delinquent loans in a given cohort (in this instance, delinquency category) that ultimately default. order to arrive at an expected dollar amount of defaults from currently delinquent collateral (plateau period defaults).

Similar to the methodology applied to first liens,lien U.S. RMBS transactions, the Company then calculates a CDR for six months, which isthat will cause the period over which the currently delinquent collateral is expectedtargeted amount of liquidations to be liquidated. That CDR is then used as the basis foroccur during the plateau CDR period that follows the embedded plateau losses.period.


For the base case scenario, the CDR (the plateau CDR) wasis held constant for six36 months. Once the plateau period has ended,ends, the CDR is assumed to gradually trend down in uniform increments for one year to its final long-term steady state CDR. (The long-term steady state CDR is calculated as the constant CDR that would have yielded the amount(5% of losses originally expected at underwriting.) In the base case scenario, the time over which the CDR trends down to its final CDR is 28 months. Therefore, the total stress period for second lien transactions is 34 months, comprising six months of delinquent data and 28 months of decrease to the steady state CDR, the same as of June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016.original plateau).


HELOC loans generally permit the borrower to pay only interest for an initial period (often ten years) and, after that period, require the borrower to make both the monthly interest payment and a monthly principal payment. This causes the borrower's total monthly payment to increase, sometimes substantially, at the end of the initial interest-only period. In the prior periods, as the HELOC loans underlying the Company's insured HELOC transactions reached their principal amortization period, the Company incorporated an assumption that a percentageA substantial number of loans reaching their principal amortization periods would default aroundin the time of the payment increase.

Most of the HELOC loans underlying the Company'sCompany’s insured HELOC transactions are now past their interest only reset date, although a significant number of HELOC loans werehad been modified to extend the interest onlyinterest-only period for another fiveto 15 years. As a result,The majority of the modified loans have reset to full amortization.

The Company has observed the performance of the modified loans that have finally reset to full amortization and noted low levels of delinquency, even with substantial increases in Third Quarter 2017,monthly payments. This observed performance lowers the Company eliminated the CDR increase that was applied when such loans reached their principal amortization period. In addition, based on the average performance history, starting in Third Quarter 2017, the Company applied a CDR floorlevel of 2.5% for the future steady state CDR on all its HELOC transactions and reduced the liquidation rate assumption for selected vintages.uncertainty regarding this modified cohort.


When a second lien loan defaults, there is generally a very low recovery. The Company assumed, as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, that it will generally recover only 2% of future defaulting collateral at the collateral defaulting in the future and decliningtime of charge-off, with additional amounts of post-default receiptspost charge-off recoveries projected to come in over time. A second lien on previously defaulted collateral. Thisthe borrower’s home may be retained in the Company’s second lien transactions after the loan is charged off and the sameloss applied to the transaction, particularly in cases where the holder of the first lien has not foreclosed. If the second lien is retained and the value of the home increases, the servicer may be able to use the second lien to increase recoveries, either by arranging for the borrower to resume payments or by realizing value upon the sale of the underlying real estate. The Company evaluates its assumptions quarterly based on actual recoveries of charged-off loans observed from period to period and reasonable expectations of future recoveries. In instances where the Company is able to obtain information on the lien status of charged-off loans, it assumes there will be a certain level of future recoveries of the balance of the charged-off loans where the second lien is still intact. The Company’s base scenario recovery assumption used as of June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016.for charged-off loans is 40%. Such recoveries are assumed to be received evenly over the next five years.
The rate at which the principal amount of loans is prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected as well as the amount of excess spread. In the base case,scenario, an average CPR (based on experience of the past year) is assumed to continue

until the end of the plateau before gradually increasing to the final CPR over the same period the CDR decreases. The final CPR is assumed to be 15% for second lien U.S. RMBS transactions (in the base case)scenario), which is lower than the historical average but reflects the Company’s continued uncertainty about the projected performance of the borrowers in these transactions. For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used. This pattern is generally consistent with how the Company modeled the CPR as of June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016.2023. To the extent that prepayments differ from projected levels, it could materially change the Company’s projected excess spread and losses.losses could materially change.
 
The Company uses a number
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Table of other variables in its second lien loss projections, including the spread between relevant interest rate indices. These variables have been relatively stable and have less impact on the projection results than the variables discussed above. However, in a number of HELOC transactions the servicers have been modifying poorly performing loans from floatingContents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to fixed rates, and, as a result, rising interest rates would negatively impact the excess spread available from these modified loans to support the transactions.  The Company incorporated these modifications in its assumptions.Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued

In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted five possiblescenarios, each with a different CDR curvescurve applicable to the period preceding the return to the long-term steady state CDR. The Company used five scenarios at September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016. The Company believes that the level of the elevated CDR and the length of time it will persist, the ultimate prepayment rate and the amount of additional defaults because of the expiry of the interest only periodrecoveries for charged-off loans are the primary drivers behindof the likely amount of losses the collateral will likely suffer. The Company continues to evaluate the assumptions affecting its modeling results.


The Company believes the most important driver of its projected second lien RMBS losses is the performance of its HELOC transactions. The following table shows the range as well as the average, weighted by outstanding net insured par outstanding, for key assumptions forused in the calculation of expected loss to be paid (recovered) for individual transactions for direct vintage 2004 - 2008 HELOCs.


Key Assumptions in Base CaseScenario Expected Loss Estimates
HELOCs (1)

As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
RangeWeighted AverageRangeWeighted Average
Plateau CDR0.0 %-6.3%2.6%0.0 %-9.3%2.6%
Final CDR0.0 %-0.3%0.1%0.0 %-0.5%0.1%
Liquidation rates:
Current but recently delinquent20%20%
30 – 59 Days Delinquent3030
60 – 89 Days Delinquent4040
90+ Days Delinquent6060
Bankruptcy5555
Foreclosure5555
Real Estate Owned100100
Loss severity on future defaults98%98%
Projected future recoveries on previously charged-off loans40%40%

 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of June 30, 2017 As of
December 31, 2016
 Range Weighted Average Range Weighted Average Range Weighted Average
Plateau CDR5.2%-22.0% 11.3% 3.2%-22.6% 13.3% 3.5%-24.8% 13.6%
Final CDR trended down to2.5%-3.2% 2.5% 0.5%-3.2% 1.3% 0.5%-3.2% 1.3%
Liquidation rates:                 
Delinquent/Modified in the Previous 12 Months20%   20%   25%  
30 – 59 Days Delinquent45   45   50  
60 – 89 Days Delinquent60   65   65  
90+ Days Delinquent75   80   80  
Bankruptcy55   55   55  
Foreclosure70   75   75  
Real Estate Owned100   100   100  
Loss severity98%   98%   98%  
____________________
(1)Represents variables for the base case.


The Company’s base case assumed a six month CDR plateau and a 28 month ramp-down (for a total stress period of 34 months). The Company alsocontinues to evaluate the assumptions affecting its modeling results. The Company believes the most important driver of its projected second lien U.S. RMBS losses is the performance of its HELOC transactions.

The Company modeled a scenarioscenarios with a longer period of elevated defaults and anotherothers with a shorter period of elevated defaults. Increasingdefaults as well as various levels of assumed recoveries. In the Company’s most stressful scenario, assuming 10% recoveries on charged-off loans, increasing the CDR plateau to eight42 months and increasing the ramp-down by threefour months to 3116 months (for a total stress period of 3958 months) would increasedecrease the expected lossrecovery by approximately $13$84 million for HELOC transactions. On the other hand, in the Company’s least stressful scenario, assuming 80% recoveries on charged-off loans, reducing the CDR plateau to four30 months and decreasing the length of the CDR ramp-down to 25eight months (for a total stress period of 2938 months), and lowering the ultimate prepayment rate to 10% would decreaseincrease the expected lossrecovery by approximately $14$114 million for HELOC transactions.


Breaches of Representations and Warranties

As of September 30, 2017, the Company had a net R&W payable of $3 million to R&W counterparties, compared to an R&W payable of $6 million as of December 31, 2016.

Triple-X Life Insurance Transactions
The Company had $2.1 billion of net par exposure to financial guaranty triple-X life insurance transactions as of September 30, 2017, of which two transactions with $85 million in net par are rated BIG. The triple-X life insurance transactions are based on discrete blocks of individual life insurance business. In older vintage triple-X life insurance transactions, which include the two BIG-rated transactions, the amounts raised by the sale of the notes insured by the Company were used to capitalize a special purpose vehicle that provides reinsurance to a life insurer or reinsurer. The amounts have been invested since inception in accounts managed by third-party investment managers. In the case of the two BIG-rated transactions, material amounts of their assets were invested in U.S. RMBS. Based on its analysis of the information available, including estimates of future investment performance, and projected credit impairments on the invested assets and performance of the blocks of life insurance business at September 30, 2017, the Company projected net expected recoveries of $7 million. The economic benefit during Third Quarter 2017 was approximately $1 million, which was due primarily to improved performance in some of the underlying assets in which the transactions have invested. The economic benefit during Nine Months 2017 was approximately $56 million, which was due primarily to a settlement with the former investment manager of the two BIG transactions.

Student Loan Transactions
The Company has insured or reinsured $1.4 billion net par of student loan securitizations issued by private issuers that are classified as structured finance. Of this amount, $116 million is rated BIG. The Company is projecting approximately $34 million of net expected loss to be paid on these transactions. In general, the losses are due to: (i) the poor credit performance of private student loan collateral and high loss severities, or (ii) high interest rates on auction rate securities with respect to which the auctions have failed. The economic development during Third Quarter 2017 was approximately $1 million, which was driven primarily by a lower probability of certain deals being commuted. The economic loss development during Nine Months 2017 was approximately $2 million, which was driven primarily by changes in the discount rates and a lower probability of certain deals being commuted.


Recovery Litigation and Dispute Resolution


In the ordinary course of their respective businesses, certain of the Company'sAGL’s subsidiaries assert claimsare involved in legal proceedings againstlitigation or other dispute resolution with third parties to recover insurance losses paid or return benefits received in prior periods or prevent or reduce losses in the future. The impact, if any, of these and other proceedings on the amount of recoveries the Company ultimately receives and losses it pays in the future is uncertain, and the impact of any one or more of these proceedings during any quarter or year could be material to the Company’s financial statements.

    
Public Finance Transactions

The Company has asserted claims in a number of legal proceedings in connection with its exposure to Puerto Rico. Please refer toSee Note 4,3, Outstanding Exposure, for a discussion of the Company'sCompany’s exposure to Puerto Rico and related recovery litigation being pursued by the Company.


On November 1, 2013, Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (Radian Asset) commenced a declaratory judgment action in the U.S. District Court
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
5.    Contracts Accounted for the Southern District of Mississippi against Madison County, Mississippi and the Parkway East Public Improvement District to establish its rights under a contribution agreement from the County supporting certain special assessment bonds issued by the District and insured by Radian Asset (now AGC). As of September 30, 2017, $19 million of such bonds were outstanding. The County maintained that its payment obligation is limited to two years of annual debt service, while AGC contended the County’s obligations under the contribution agreement continue so long as the bonds remain outstanding. On April 27, 2016, the Court granted AGC's motion for summary judgment, agreeing with AGC's interpretation of the County's obligations. The County appealed the District Court’s summary judgment ruling to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, and on May 31, 2017, the appellate court reversed the District Court’s ruling and remanded the matter to the District Court.Insurance


Triple-X Life Insurance Transactions
In December 2008 AGUK filed an action in the Supreme Court of the State of New York against J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. (JPMIM), the investment manager for a triple-X life insurance transaction, Orkney Re II plc (Orkney), involving securities guaranteed by AGUK. The action alleged that JPMIM engaged in breaches of fiduciary duty, gross negligence and breaches of contract based upon its handling of the Orkney investments. The trial commenced on March 13, 2017. During a court-ordered mediation session on March 25, 2017, the parties agreed to settle the litigation and subsequently filed a stipulation of discontinuance of the court proceedings with prejudice. The parties have agreed to keep the terms of the settlement confidential.

RMBS Transactions

On February 5, 2009, U.S. Bank National Association, as indenture trustee (U.S. Bank), CIFG Assurance North America Inc. (CIFGNA), as insurer of the Class Ac Notes, and Syncora Guarantee Inc. (Syncora), as insurer of the Class Ax Notes, filed a complaint in the Supreme Court of the State of New York against GreenPoint Mortgage Funding, Inc. (GreenPoint) alleging GreenPoint breached its R&W with respect to the underlying mortgage loans in the GreenPoint Mortgage Funding Trust 2006-HE1 transaction.  On March 3, 2010, the court dismissed CIFGNA's and Syncora’s causes of action on standing grounds. On December 16, 2013, GreenPoint moved to dismiss the remaining claims of U.S. Bank on the grounds that it too lacked standing. U.S. Bank cross-moved for partial summary judgment striking GreenPoint’s defense that U.S. Bank lacked standing to directly pursue claims against GreenPoint. On January 28, 2016, the court denied GreenPoint’s motion for summary judgment and granted U.S. Bank’s cross-motion for partial summary judgment, finding that as a matter of law U.S. Bank has standing to directly assert claims against GreenPoint. Oral argument on GreenPoint's appeal was heard by the New York Appellate Division, First Department, on May 2, 2017. CIFGNA originally had $500 million insured net par exposure to this transaction; $19 million insured net par remains outstanding at September 30, 2017.

On November 26, 2012, CIFGNA filed a complaint in the Supreme Court of the State of New York against JP Morgan Securities LLC (JP Morgan) for material misrepresentation in the inducement of insurance and common law fraud, alleging that JP Morgan fraudulently induced CIFGNA to insure $400 million of securities issued by ACA ABS CDO 2006-2 Ltd. and $325 million of securities issued by Libertas Preferred Funding II, Ltd. On June 26, 2015, the Court dismissed with prejudice CIFGNA’s material misrepresentation in the inducement of insurance claim and dismissed without prejudice CIFGNA’s common law fraud claim. On September 24, 2015, the Court denied CIFGNA’s motion to amend but allowed CIFGNA to re-plead a cause of action for common law fraud. On November 20, 2015, CIFGNA filed a motion for leave to amend its complaint to re-plead common law fraud. On April 29, 2016, CIFGNA filed an appeal to reverse the Court’s decision dismissing CIFGNA’s material misrepresentation in the inducement of insurance claim. On November 29, 2016, the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court of the State of New York ruled that the Court’s decision dismissing with prejudice CIFGNA’s material misrepresentation in the inducement of insurance claim should be modified to grant CIFGNA leave to re-plead such claim. On February 27, 2017, AGC (as successor to CIFGNA) filed an amended complaint which includes a claim for material misrepresentation in the inducement of insurance.

6.Contracts Accounted for as Insurance

Premiums


The portfolio of outstanding exposures discussed in Note 4,3, Outstanding Exposure, and Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), includes contracts that meet the definition of insurance contracts, contracts that meet the definition of a derivative, and contracts that are accounted for as insurance contracts, derivatives and consolidated FG VIEs. Amounts presented in this note relate only to contracts accounted for as insurance, contracts. Please refer tounless otherwise specified. See Note 8,6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for amounts that relaterelated to CDS and Note 9, Consolidated8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for amounts that relaterelated to consolidated FG VIEs.



Premiums

Net Earned Premiums
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Financial guaranty insurance:
Scheduled net earned premiums$71 $69 
Accelerations from refundings and terminations39 
Accretion of discount on net premiums receivable
Financial guaranty insurance net earned premiums117 80 
Specialty net earned premiums
  Net earned premiums$119 $81 

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Scheduled net earned premiums$96
 $101
 $296
 $285
Accelerations:       
Refundings84
 105
 189
 267
Terminations3
 21
 15
 65
Total Accelerations87
 126
 204
 332
Accretion of discount on net premiums receivable3
 4
 11
 11
  Financial guaranty insurance net earned premiums186
 231
 511
 628
Other0
 
 1
 0
  Net earned premiums (1)$186
 $231
 $512
 $628
 ___________________
(1)Excludes $3 million and $4 million for Third Quarter 2017 and 2016, respectively, and $11 million and $12 million for Nine Months 2017 and 2016, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs.


Components of Unearned Premium Reserve
 As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
 Gross Ceded Net(1) Gross Ceded Net(1)
 (in millions)
Deferred premium revenue(2)$3,647
 $107
 $3,540
 $3,548
 $206
 $3,342
Contra-paid (3)(50) 1
 (51) (37) 0
 (37)
Unearned premium reserve$3,597
 $108
 $3,489
 $3,511
 $206
 $3,305
 ____________________
(1)Excludes $79 million and $90 million of deferred premium revenue, and $18 million and $25 million of contra-paid related to FG VIEs as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively.

(2)Includes $7 million of non- financial guaranty as of September 30, 2017. As of December 31, 2016, non-financial guaranty deferred premium revenue was de minimis.

(3)See "Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses– Insurance Contracts' Loss Information" below for an explanation of "contra-paid".



Gross Premium Receivable,
Net of Commissions Payable on Assumed Business
Roll Forward
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Beginning of year$1,468 $1,298 
Less: Specialty insurance premium receivable
Financial guaranty insurance premiums receivable1,467 1,297 
Gross written premiums on new business, net of commissions63 79 
Gross premiums received, net of commissions(75)(64)
Adjustments:
Changes in the expected term and debt service assumptions(3)
Accretion of discount, net of commissions on assumed business
Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement(10)20 
Financial guaranty insurance premium receivable1,449 1,345 
Specialty insurance premium receivable
March 31,$1,450 $1,346 
 Nine Months
 2017 2016
 (in millions)
December 31,$576
 $693
FG activity   
Premiums receivable from acquisitions (see Note 2)270
 18
Gross written premiums on new business, net of commissions on assumed business225
 111
Gross premiums received, net of commissions on assumed business(216) (155)
Adjustments:   
Changes in the expected term0
 (39)
Accretion of discount, net of commissions on assumed business13
 5
Foreign exchange translation54
 (25)
Subtotal (1)922
 608
Other0
 0
September 30,$922

$608

____________________
(1)Excludes $10 million and $11 million as of September 30, 2017 and September 30, 2016, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs.

Foreign exchange translation relates to installmentApproximately 68% and 70% of gross premiums receivable, denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar . Approximately 71%, 50%net of commissions payable, at March 31, 2024 and 52% of installment premiums at September 30, 2017, December 31, 2016 and September 30, 2016,2023, respectively, are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, primarily the europound sterling and pound sterling.euro.
 
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The timing and cumulative amount of actual collections and net earned premiums may differ from those of expected collections and of expected net earned premiums in the tablestable below due to factors such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations, counterparty collectability issues, accelerations, commutations, andrestructurings, changes in the consumer price indices, changes in expected lives.lives and new business.

Expected Collections of
Financial Guaranty Insurance Gross Premiums Receivable,
Expected Future Premium Collections and Earnings
 As of March 31, 2024
Future Premiums
to be Collected (1)
Future Net Premiums
to be Earned (2)
 (in millions)
2024 (April 1 - June 30)$49 $71 
2024 (July 1 - September 30)45 71 
2024 (October 1 - December 31)23 70 
Subtotal 2024117 212 
2025124 266 
2026107 249 
2027103 234 
202896 222 
2029-2033406 913 
2034-2038276 603 
2039-2043200 378 
After 2043391 520 
Total$1,820 3,597 
Future accretion369 
Total future net earned premiums$3,966 
____________________
(1)    Net of Commissions on Assumed Businessassumed commissions payable.
(Undiscounted)(2)     Net of reinsurance.

 As of
September 30, 2017
 (in millions)
2017 (October 1 – December 31)$32
201895
201982
202080
202178
2022-2026306
2027-2031212
2032-2036120
After 2036120
Total(1)$1,125
 ____________________
(1)Excludes expected cash collections on FG VIEs of $13 million.


Scheduled Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Earned Premiums

 As of
September 30, 2017
 (in millions)
2017 (October 1 – December 31)$92
2018348
2019300
2020271
2021249
2022-2026963
2027-2031620
2032-2036373
After 2036317
Net deferred premium revenue(1)3,533
Future accretion197
Total future net earned premiums$3,730
 ____________________
(1)Excludes scheduled net earned premiums on consolidated FG VIEs of $79 million.



Selected Information for Financial Guaranty Insurance
Policies with Premiums Paid in Installments

As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (dollars in millions)
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable$1,449$1,467
Deferred premium revenue1,7571,768
Weighted-average risk-free rate used to discount premiums2.1%2.1%
Weighted-average period of premiums receivable (in years)12.412.5
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (dollars in millions)
Premiums receivable, net of commission payable$922
 $576
Gross deferred premium revenue1,241
 1,041
Weighted-average risk-free rate used to discount premiums2.4% 3.0%
Weighted-average period of premiums receivable (in years)9.3
 9.1
Losses and Recoveries


Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses

Insurance Contracts' Loss Information

The following table provides information on loss and LAE reserves and salvage and subrogation recoverable, net of reinsurance. The Company usedare discounted at risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated financial guaranty insurance obligations that ranged from 0.0%4.14% to 2.94%5.33% with a weighted average of 2.27%4.49% as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and 0.0%3.79% to 3.23%5.40% with a weighted average of 2.74%4.17% as of December 31, 2016.2023.


Loss
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The following tables provide information on net reserve (salvage), which includes loss and LAE Reservereserves and Salvagesalvage and Subrogation Recoverablesubrogation recoverable, both net of reinsurance.

Net of ReinsuranceReserve (Salvage) by Sector
Insurance Contracts
As of
SectorMarch 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$100 $119 
Non-U.S. public finance
Public finance101 120 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS(127)(87)
Other structured finance36 42 
Structured finance(91)(45)
Total$10 $75 

 As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
 
Loss and
LAE
Reserve, net
 
Salvage and
Subrogation
Recoverable, net 
 Net Reserve (Recoverable) 
Loss and
LAE
Reserve, net
 
Salvage and
Subrogation
Recoverable, net 
 Net Reserve (Recoverable)
 (in millions)
Public finance:           
U.S. public finance$984
 $196
 $788
 $711
 $86
 $625
Non-U.S. public finance21
 
 21
 21
 
 21
Public finance1,005
 196
 809
 732
 86
 646
Structured finance:           
U.S. RMBS269
 252
 17
 283
 262
 21
Triple-X life insurance transactions15
 28
 (13) 36
 
 36
Other structured finance52
 
 52
 60
 
 60
Structured finance336
 280
 56
 379
 262
 117
Subtotal1,341
 476
 865
 1,111
 348
 763
Other recoverable (payable)
 3
 (3) 
 (1) 1
Subtotal1,341
 479
 862
 1,111
 347
 764
Elimination of losses attributable to FG VIEs(54) 
 (54) (64) 
 (64)
Total (1)$1,287
 $479
 $808
 $1,047
 $347
 $700
____________________
(1)See “Components of Net Reserves (Salvage)” table for loss and LAE reserve and salvage and subrogation recoverable components.



Components of Net Reserves (Salvage)
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (in millions)
Loss and LAE reserve$1,326
 $1,127
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses(39) (80)
Loss and LAE reserve, net1,287
 1,047
Salvage and subrogation recoverable(497) (365)
Salvage and subrogation payable(1)21
 17
Other payable (recoverable)(3) 1
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net, and other recoverable(479) (347)
Net reserves (salvage)$808
 $700
____________________
(1)Recorded as a component of reinsurance balances payable.


The table below provides a reconciliation of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts to net expected loss to be expensed. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts differs from expected loss to be expensed due to: (i) the contra-paid, which representrepresents the claim payments made and recoveries received that have not yet been recognized in the statementstatements of operations,operations; (ii) salvage and subrogation recoverable for transactions that are in a net recovery position where the Company has not yet received recoveries on claims previously paid (having the effect of reducing net expected loss to be paid by the amount of the previously paid claim and the expected recovery), but will have no future income effect (because the previously paid claims and the corresponding recovery of those claims will offset(and therefore recognized in income in future periods),but not yet received); and (iii) loss reserves that have already been established (and therefore expensed but not yet paid).


Reconciliation of Net Expected Loss to be Paid and(Recovered)
to Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
 As of
September 30, 2017
 (in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid - financial guaranty insurance (1)$1,205
Contra-paid, net51
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net of reinsurance476
Loss and LAE reserve - financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance(1,286)
Other recoverable (payable)3
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value) (2)$449
____________________
As of March 31, 2024
(1)See "Net Expected Loss(in millions)
Net expected loss to be Paid (Recovered) by Accounting Model" table in Note 5, Expected paid (recovered) - financial guaranty insurance$188 
Contra-paid, net22 
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net294 
Loss and LAE reserve - financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance(301)
Net expected loss to be Paid.expensed (present value)$203 


(2)Excludes $55 million as of September 30, 2017, related to consolidated FG VIEs.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
    

The following table provides a schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed. The amount and timing of actual loss and LAE may differ from the estimates shown below due to factors such as accelerations, commutations, changes in expected lives and updates to loss estimates. This table excludes amounts related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.

Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts

 As of March 31, 2024
 (in millions)
2024 (April 1 - June 30)$
2024 (July 1 - September 30)
2024 (October 1 - December 31)
Subtotal 202410 
202512 
202615 
202716 
202814 
2029-203367 
2034-203847 
2039-204311 
After 204311 
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value)203 
Future accretion(18)
Total expected future loss and LAE$185 
 As of
September 30, 2017
 (in millions)
2017 (October 1 – December 31)$9
Subtotal 20179
201840
201937
202038
202134
2022-2026143
2027-203186
2032-203646
After 203616
Net expected loss to be expensed449
Future accretion205
Total expected future loss and LAE$654



The following table presents the loss and LAE recorded(benefit) reported in the condensed consolidated statements of operations by sector for insurance contracts. Amounts presented are net of reinsurance.


Loss and LAE
Reported on the
Consolidated Statements of Operations (Benefit) by Sector
  
 First Quarter
Sector20242023
(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$(2)$(4)
Non-U.S. public finance— — 
Public finance(2)(4)
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS$$
Other structured finance(1)
Structured finance
Loss and LAE (benefit)$(1)$

33

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Public finance:       
U.S. public finance$233
 $20
 $424
 $233
Non-U.S. public finance0
 
 (3) (1)
Public finance233
 20
 421
 232
Structured finance:       
U.S. RMBS(4) (2) (14) (3)
Triple-X life insurance transactions(2) (24) (48) (22)
Other structured finance(3) (3) 0
 (20)
Structured finance(9) (29) (62) (45)
Loss and LAE on insurance contracts before FG VIE consolidation224
 (9) 359
 187
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation(1) 0
 (5) (4)
Loss and LAE$223
 $(9) $354
 $183
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The following table providestables provide information on financial guaranty insurance contracts categorized as BIG.

Financial Guaranty Insurance
BIG Transaction Loss Summary
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024
 GrossNet Total BIG
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIG
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)91 12 109 212 212 
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)9.415.76.99.79.7
Outstanding exposure:    
Par$2,362 $977 $1,817 $5,156 $5,141 
Interest1,098 893 657 2,648 2,644 
Total (2)$3,460 $1,870 $2,474 $7,804 $7,785 
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$171 $187 $1,472 $1,830 $1,820 
Potential recoveries (3)(363)(77)(1,219)(1,659)(1,650)
Subtotal(192)110 253 171 170 
Discount53 (23)(12)18 18 
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)$(139)$87 $241 $189 $188 
Deferred premium revenue$96 $62 $136 $294 $294 
Reserves (salvage)$(175)$45 $137 $$
 
34

 BIG  Categories
 BIG 1 BIG 2 BIG 3 
Total
BIG, Net
 
Effect of
Consolidating
FG VIEs
 Total
 Gross Ceded Gross Ceded Gross Ceded   
 (dollars in millions)
Number of risks(1)150
 (22) 48
 (3) 151
 (44) 349
 
 349
Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)8.7
 7.1
 14.1
 2.9
 9.6
 9.3
 9.8
 
 9.8
Outstanding exposure: 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Principal$4,727
 $(99) $1,390
 $(8) $6,715
 $(195) $12,530
 $
 $12,530
Interest2,239
 (42) 1,051
 (1) 3,218
 (89) 6,376
 
 6,376
Total(2)$6,966
 $(141) $2,441
 $(9) $9,933
 $(284) $18,906
 $
 $18,906
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$192
 $(5) $418
 $(1) $3,174
 $(83) $3,695
 $(309) $3,386
Potential recoveries(3)(494) 20
 (80) 0
 (1,662) 46
 (2,170) 194
 (1,976)
Subtotal(302) 15
 338
 (1) 1,512
 (37) 1,525
 (115) 1,410
Discount62
 (4) (96) 0
 (192) 2
 (228) 23
 (205)
Present value of expected cash flows$(240) $11
 $242
 $(1) $1,320
 $(35) $1,297
 $(92) $1,205
Deferred premium revenue$116
 $(5) $135
 $0
 $573
 $(6) $813
 $(77) $736
Reserves (salvage)$(284) $12
 $188
 $0
 $975
 $(30) $861
 $(54) $807
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Financial Guaranty Insurance
BIG Transaction Loss Summary
As of December 31, 20162023
 GrossNet Total BIG
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIG
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)95 13 109 217 217 
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)9.615.97.59.910.0
Outstanding exposure: 
Par$2,400 $979 $2,019 $5,398 $5,383 
Interest1,126 896 818 2,840 2,836 
Total (2)$3,526 $1,875 $2,837 $8,238 $8,219 
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$176 $187 $1,585 $1,948 $1,938 
Potential recoveries (3)(376)(78)(1,214)(1,668)(1,659)
Subtotal(200)109 371 280 279 
Discount56 (22)(53)(19)(19)
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)$(144)$87 $318 $261 $260 
Deferred premium revenue$100 $63 $142 $305 $305 
Reserves (salvage)$(181)$45 $209 $73 $72 
____________________
(1)    A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.
(2)Includes amounts related to FG VIEs.
(3)Represents expected inflows from future payments by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment grade credits, related mainly to exposures that were previously BIG and for which claims have been paid in the past.

6.    Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives
Amounts presented in this note relate only to contracts accounted for as derivatives, which are primarily CDS, and also include interest rate swaps.
The Company’s credit derivatives are generally governed by International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. documentation and have certain characteristics that differ from financial guaranty insurance contracts. For example, the Company’s control rights with respect to a reference obligation under a CDS may be more limited than when the Company issues a financial guaranty insurance contract. In addition, there are more circumstances under which the Company may be obligated to make payments. Similar to a financial guaranty insurance contract, the Company would be obligated to pay if the obligor failed to make a scheduled payment of principal or interest in full. In certain credit derivative transactions, the Company also specifically agreed to pay if the obligor were to become bankrupt or if the reference obligation were restructured. Furthermore, in certain credit derivative transactions, the Company may be required to make a payment due to an event that is unrelated to the performance of the obligation referenced in the credit derivative. If events of default or termination events specified in the credit derivative documentation were to occur, the non-defaulting or the non-affected party, which may be either the Company or the counterparty, depending upon the circumstances, may decide to terminate a credit derivative prior to maturity. In that case, the Company may be required to make a termination payment to its swap counterparty upon such termination. Absent such an event of default or termination event, the Company may not unilaterally terminate a credit derivative contract; however, the Company on occasion has mutually agreed with various counterparties to terminate certain CDS transactions.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The components of the Company’s credit derivative net par outstanding by sector are presented in the table below. The estimated remaining weighted average life of credit derivatives was 10.9 years and 11.1 years as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

Credit Derivatives (1)
 As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
SectorNet Par
Outstanding
Net Fair Value Asset (Liability)Net Par
Outstanding
Net Fair Value Asset (Liability)
 (in millions)
U.S. public finance$1,077 $(14)$1,149 $(15)
Non-U.S. public finance1,507 (19)1,522 (20)
U.S. structured finance223 (5)322 (13)
Non-U.S. structured finance614 (1)615 (2)
Total$3,421 $(39)$3,608 $(50)
____________________
(1)    Expected loss to be paid was $1 million and $2 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

Fair Value Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements$(1)$
Net unrealized gains (losses)11 14 
Fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives$10 $15 
The impact of changes in credit spreads will vary based upon the volume, tenor, interest rates and other market conditions at the time these fair values are determined. In addition, since each transaction has unique collateral and structural terms, the change in fair value of each transaction may vary considerably. The fair value of credit derivative contracts generally also reflects the Company’s own credit cost based on the price to purchase credit protection on AGC. The Company determines its own credit risk primarily based on quoted CDS prices traded on AGC at each balance sheet date.
CDS Spread on AGC (in basis points)
 As of March 31,
2024
As of December 31, 2023As of March 31,
2023
As of December 31, 2022
Five-year CDS spread52668363
One-year CDS spread19233126

Fair Value of Credit Derivative Assets (Liabilities)
and Effect of AGC Credit Spread
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Fair value of credit derivatives before effect of AGC credit spread$(56)$(76)
Plus: Effect of AGC credit spread17 26 
Net fair value of credit derivatives$(39)$(50)

The fair value of CDS contracts as of March 31, 2024, before considering the benefit applicable to AGC’s credit spread, is a direct result of the relatively wider credit spreads under current market conditions compared to those at the time of underwriting for certain underlying credits with longer tenor.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
7.    Investments

The majority of the investment portfolio comprises investment grade fixed-maturity securities managed by three outside managers. The Company has established investment guidelines for these investment managers regarding credit quality, exposure to a particular sector and exposure to a particular obligor within a sector.

The remainder of the investment portfolio primarily consists of (i) Loss Mitigation Securities; (ii) CVIs received in connection with the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions; (iii) equity method investments; and (iv) short-term investments. Equity method investments primarily consist of the investment in Sound Point and fund investments across a variety of strategies.

Investment Portfolio
Carrying Value
As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale (1):
Externally managed$5,383 $5,372 
Loss Mitigation Securities464 459 
Other244 476 
Fixed-maturity securities, trading - Puerto Rico, CVIs (2)272 318 
Short-term investments1,649 1,661 
Other invested assets:
Equity method investments:
Sound Point417 429 
Alternative investments (3)451 394 
Other
Total (4)$8,887 $9,115 
____________________
(1)    9.5% and 9.2% of fixed-maturity securities, available for sale, were rated BIG or not rated as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. BIG rated securities consisted primarily of Loss Mitigation Securities.
(2)    These securities are not rated.
(3)     Excludes certain investments in funds that are consolidated and accounted for as CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.
(4)     The aggregate carrying value of the Company’s investments in Sound Point, and Sound Point managed funds was $636 million and $631 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
The Company has agreed to invest $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval. The fair value of alternative investments as of March 31, 2024 was $803 million. The Company had $743 million in unfunded commitments to alternative investments (of which $324 million is committed to specific funds). See Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation for a description of the Sound Point Transaction.

Of the $1.5 billion mentioned above, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment subsidiary, AGAS, are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $162 million for a total of $912 million as of March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to Sound Point and AHP funds were $772 million (of which $574 million was funded with a net asset value (NAV) of $632 million). This capital was committed to several funds, each dedicated to a single strategy, including CLOs, asset-based/special finance and healthcare structured capital. As of March 31, 2024, three of the eight funds in which AGAS invests are accounted for as CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Accrued investment income, which is reported in “other assets,” was $72 million as of March 31, 2024 and $71 million as of December 31, 2023.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Security Type
As of March 31, 2024
Security TypePercent
of
Total (1)
Amortized
Cost
Allowance for Credit LossesGross
Unrealized
Gains
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
Estimated
Fair
Value
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions37 %$2,418 $(14)$27 $(100)$2,331 
U.S. government and agencies60 — (6)55 
Corporate securities (2)35 2,307 (6)10 (210)2,101 
Mortgage-backed securities (3): 
RMBS490 (22)(69)402 
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)202 — — (6)196 
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs442 — (4)439 
Other535 (25)(28)483 
Non-U.S. government securities99 — — (15)84 
Total available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities100 %$6,553 $(67)$43 $(438)$6,091 

Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Security Type
As of December 31, 2023
Security TypePercent
of
Total (1)
Amortized
Cost
Allowance for Credit LossesGross
Unrealized
Gains
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
Estimated
Fair
Value
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions41 %$2,733 $(13)$33 $(92)$2,661 
U.S. government and agencies65 — (6)60 
Corporate securities (2)34 2,327 (6)17 (197)2,141 
Mortgage-backed securities (3):    
RMBS428 (21)(68)342 
CMBS157 — — (6)151 
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs456 — (7)450 
Other465 (37)— (26)402 
Non-U.S. government securities115 — — (15)100 
Total available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities100 %$6,746 $(77)$55 $(417)$6,307 
____________________
(1)Based on amortized cost.
(2)Includes securities issued by taxable universities and hospitals.
(3)U.S. government-agency obligations were approximately 56% and 42% of mortgage-backed securities as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, based on fair value.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities for Which a Credit Loss was Not Recorded
As of March 31, 2024
 Less than 12 months12 months or moreTotal
 Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$603 $(3)$1,250 $(96)$1,853 $(99)
U.S. government and agencies— 33 (6)40 (6)
Corporate securities164 (2)1,384 (168)1,548 (170)
Mortgage-backed securities: 
RMBS34 — 138 (11)172 (11)
CMBS— 127 (6)131 (6)
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs— 222 (2)231 (2)
Other— 26 (1)35 (1)
Non-U.S. government securities— — 79 (15)79 (15)
Total$830 $(5)$3,259 $(305)$4,089 $(310)
Number of securities (1) 319  1,311  1,609 
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities for Which a Credit Loss was Not Recorded
As of December 31, 2023
 Less than 12 months12 months or moreTotal
 Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$641 $(4)$931 $(87)$1,572 $(91)
U.S. government and agencies— — 33 (6)33 (6)
Corporate securities72 (1)1,426 (152)1,498 (153)
Mortgage-backed securities:    
RMBS27 (1)124 (8)151 (9)
CMBS— 148 (6)151 (6)
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs22 (1)379 (6)401 (7)
Other— 26 (1)27 (1)
Non-U.S. government securities— — 95 (15)95 (15)
Total$766 $(7)$3,162 $(281)$3,928 $(288)
Number of securities (1) 274  1,266  1,525 
___________________
(1)    The number of securities does not add across because lots consisting of the same securities have been purchased at different times and appear in both categories above (i.e., less than 12 months and 12 months or more). If a security appears in both categories, it is counted only once in the total column.

The Company considered the credit quality, cash flows, interest rate movements, ability to hold a security to recovery and intent to sell a security in determining whether a security had a credit loss. The Company has determined that the unrealized losses recorded as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 were primarily related to higher interest rates rather than credit quality. As of March 31, 2024, the Company did not intend to and was not required to sell investments in an unrealized loss position prior to expected recovery in value. As of March 31, 2024, of the securities in an unrealized loss position for which an allowance for credit loss was not recorded, 458 securities had unrealized losses in excess of 10% of their carrying value,
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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
whereas as of December 31, 2023, 409 securities had unrealized losses in excess of 10% of their carrying value. The total unrealized loss for these securities was $224 million as of March 31, 2024 and $200 million as of December 31, 2023.

The amortized cost and estimated fair value of available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities by contractual maturity as of March 31, 2024 are shown below. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.
Distribution of Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Contractual Maturity
As of March 31, 2024
 Amortized
Cost
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Due within one year$289 $283 
Due after one year through five years1,373 1,305 
Due after five years through 10 years1,605 1,527 
Due after 10 years2,594 2,378 
Mortgage-backed securities:  
RMBS490 402 
CMBS202 196 
Total$6,553 $6,091 

    Based on fair value, fixed-maturity securities, short-term investments and cash that are either held in trust for the benefit of third-party ceding insurers in accordance with statutory requirements, placed on deposit to fulfill state licensing requirements, or otherwise pledged or restricted, totaled $143 million as of March 31, 2024 and $234 million as of December 31, 2023. The investment portfolio also contains securities that are held in trust by certain AGL subsidiaries or are otherwise restricted for the benefit of other AGL subsidiaries in accordance with statutory and regulatory requirements with a fair value of $1,144 million and $1,154 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Income from Investments

The components of income derived from the investment portfolio are presented in the following tables.

Income from Investments
 First Quarter
 20242023
(in millions)
Investment income:
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale:
Externally managed$51 $52 
Loss Mitigation Securities
Puerto Rico, New Recovery Bonds— 
Other
Short-term investments23 13 
Investment income85 82 
Investment expenses(1)(1)
Net investment income$84 $81 
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities (1)$26 $(2)
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees:
Sound Point (2)$$— 
Funds (3)14 — 
Other
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees$24 $
____________________
(1)    Fair value gains on trading securities pertaining to securities still held as of March 31, 2024 were $22 million for first quarter 2024. Fair value losses on trading securities pertaining to securities still held as of March 31, 2023 were $2 million for first quarter 2023.
(2)    Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2023, equity in earnings (losses) includes the Company’s share of the earnings of Sound Point, which is reported on a one-quarter lag.
(3)     Sound Point and AHP funds, and, prior to July 1 2023, AssuredIM funds.

Realized Investment Gains (Losses)

    The table below presents the components of net realized investment gains (losses). Realized gains and losses on sales of investments are determined using the specific identification method.

Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Gross realized gains on sales of available-for-sale securities$$12 
Gross realized losses on sales of available-for-sale securities(3)(9)
Change in the allowance for credit losses and intent to sell (1)10 (5)
Net realized investment gains (losses)$$(2)
____________________
(1)    Change in allowance for credit losses for all periods was primarily related to Loss Mitigation Securities.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The following table presents the roll forward of allowance for the credit losses on available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities.

Roll Forward of Allowance for Credit Losses
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Balance, beginning of period$77 $65 
Additions (reductions) for securities for which credit losses were previously recognized(10)
Balance, end of period$67 $69 

The Company did not purchase any securities with credit deterioration during first quarter 2024 and first quarter 2023. Most of the Company’s allowance for credit losses relates to Loss Mitigation Securities.

8.    Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles

FG VIEs

Structured Finance and Other FG VIEs
The insurance subsidiaries provide financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs, but do not act as the servicer or collateral manager for any VIE obligations they guarantee. The transaction structure generally provides certain financial protections to the insurance subsidiaries. This financial protection can take several forms, the most common of which are overcollateralization, first loss protection (or subordination) and excess spread. In the case of overcollateralization (i.e., the principal amount of the securitized assets exceeds the principal amount of the structured finance obligations), the structure allows defaults of the securitized assets before a default is experienced on the structured finance obligation guaranteed by the insurance subsidiaries. In the case of first loss, the insurance subsidiaries’ financial guaranty insurance policy only covers a senior layer of losses experienced by multiple obligations issued by the VIEs. The first loss exposure with respect to the assets is either retained by the seller or sold off in the form of equity or mezzanine debt to other investors. In the case of excess spread, the financial assets contributed to VIEs generate interest income that is in excess of the interest payments on the debt issued by the VIE. Such excess spread is typically distributed through the transaction’s cash flow waterfall and may be used to create additional credit enhancement, applied to redeem debt issued by the VIE (thereby, creating additional overcollateralization), or distributed to equity or other investors in the transaction.

    The insurance subsidiaries are not primarily liable for the debt obligations issued by the structured finance and other FG VIEs (which excludes the Puerto Rico Trusts described below) they insure and would only be required to make payments on those insured debt obligations in the event that the issuer of such debt obligations defaults on any principal or interest due and only for the amount of the shortfall. AGL’s and its insurance subsidiaries’ creditors do not have any rights with regard to the collateral supporting the debt issued by the structured finance and other FG VIEs. Proceeds from sales, maturities, prepayments and interest from such underlying collateral may only be used to pay debt service on structured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities.

As part of the terms of its financial guaranty contracts, the insurance subsidiaries obtain certain protective rights with respect to the VIE that give them additional controls over a VIE. These protective rights are triggered by the occurrence of certain events, such as failure to be in compliance with a covenant due to poor deal performance or a deterioration in a servicer’s or collateral manager’s financial condition. At deal inception, the insurance subsidiaries typically are not deemed to control the VIE; however, once a trigger event occurs, the insurance subsidiaries’ control of the VIE typically increases. The Company continuously evaluates its power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of VIEs that have debt obligations insured by the insurance subsidiaries and, accordingly, where they are obligated to absorb VIE losses or receive benefits that could potentially be significant to the VIE. The insurance subsidiaries are deemed to be the control party for certain VIEs under GAAP, typically when their protective rights give them the power to both terminate and replace the transaction’s servicer or collateral manager, which are characteristics specific to the Company’s financial guaranty contracts. If the protective rights that could make the insurance subsidiaries the control party have not been triggered, then the VIE is not consolidated. If the insurance subsidiaries are deemed to no longer have those protective rights, the VIE is deconsolidated.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The structured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities that are guaranteed by the insurance subsidiaries are considered to be with recourse, because the insurance subsidiaries guarantee the payment of principal and interest regardless of the performance of the related FG VIEs’ assets. The structured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities that are not guaranteed by the insurance subsidiaries are considered to be without recourse, because the payment of principal and interest of these liabilities is wholly dependent on the performance of the FG VIEs’ assets.

The Company has elected the fair value option (FVO) for all assets and all liabilities of the structured finance and other FG VIEs. Upon initial adoption of the accounting guidance for VIEs in 2010, the Company elected to fair value its structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities as the carrying amount transition method was not practical. To allow for consistency in the accounting for the assets and liabilities of its consolidated FG VIEs other than the Puerto Rico Trusts, the Company elected the FVO. The change in fair value of all structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities is reported in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs” in the condensed consolidated statement of operations, except for the change in fair value attributable to change in instrument-specific credit risk (ISCR) on the structured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities, which is reported in other comprehensive income (OCI). The ISCR amount is determined by using expected cash flows at the original date of consolidation, discounted at the effective yield, less current expected cash flows discounted at that same original effective yield. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company consolidated 23 and 24 structured finance and other FG VIEs, respectively.

Puerto Rico Trusts

With respect to certain insured securities covered by the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions, insured bondholders were permitted to elect to receive custody receipts that represent an interest in the legacy insurance policy plus cash and investments. At least one separate custodial trust was set up for each legacy insured bond, and the trusts are deconsolidated when their liabilities are paid off. For those who made the election above, distributions of Plan Consideration are passed through to insured bondholders under the custody receipts to the extent of any cash or proceeds of new securities held in the custodial trust and are applied to make payments and/or prepayments of amounts due under the legacy insured bonds. The Company’s insurance policy continues to guarantee principal and interest coming due on the legacy insured bonds in accordance with the terms of such insurance policy on the originally scheduled legacy bond interest and principal payment dates to the extent that distributions of Plan Consideration are insufficient to pay or prepay such amounts after giving effect to the distributions described in the immediately preceding sentence. In the case of insured bondholders who elected to receive custody receipts, the Company retains the right to satisfy its obligations under the insurance policy with respect to the related legacy insured bonds at any time thereafter, with 30 days’ notice, by paying 100% of the then outstanding principal amount of insured bonds plus accrued interest.

By December 31, 2023, substantially all of the securities in the Puerto Rico Trusts had been called, and the assets in the Puerto Rico Trusts consisted primarily of cash. In January 2024, such cash proceeds were used to pay down a portion of the liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts. The remaining liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts will be paid by the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the credit of PRHTA. For the Puerto Rico Trust liabilities, the Company elected the FVO in order to simplify the accounting for these instruments. As of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 the Company consolidated 24 custodial trusts established as part of the Puerto Rico resolutions reached in 2022. See Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, Exposure to Puerto Rico.

Components of FG VIEs’ Assets and Liabilities

Net fair value gains and losses on FG VIEs are expected to reverse to zero by the maturity of the FG VIEs’ debt, except for net premiums received and net claims paid by the insurance subsidiaries under the financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company’s estimate of expected loss to be paid (recovered) for FG VIEs is included in Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered).

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The table below shows the carrying value of FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities segregated by type of collateral.

Consolidated FG VIEs by Type of Collateral
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
FG VIEs’ assets:
U.S. RMBS first lien$139 $145 
U.S. RMBS second lien26 28 
Puerto Rico Trusts’ assets (includes $2 and $1 at fair value) (1)155 
Total FG VIEs’ assets$167 $328 
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien$151 $156 
U.S. RMBS second lien20 21 
Puerto Rico Trusts’ liabilities218 366 
Total FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse$389 $543 
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien$10 $11 
Total FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse$10 $11 
____________________
(1)    Includes $154 million of cash as December 31, 2023.

The inception-to-date change in fair value of the FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse (all of which are measured at fair value under the FVO) attributable to the ISCR is calculated by holding all current period assumptions constant for each security and isolating the effect of the change in the insurance subsidiaries’ CDS spread from the most recent date of consolidation to the current period.

Selected Information for FG VIEs’ Assets and Liabilities
Measured under the FVO
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Excess of unpaid principal over fair value of:
FG VIEs’ assets$260 $259 
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse31 25 
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse16 16 
Unpaid principal balance for FG VIEs’ assets that were 90 days or more past due27 29 
Unpaid principal for FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse (1)
420 568 
____________________
(1)    FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse will mature at various dates ranging from 2024 through 2041.

CIVs

CIVs consist of certain Sound Point funds for which the Company is the primary beneficiary or has a controlling interest. The Company consolidates investment vehicles that are VIEs when it is deemed to be the primary beneficiary, based on its power to direct the most significant activities of each VIE and its level of economic interest in the entities.

The assets and liabilities of the Company’s CIVs are held within separate legal entities. The assets of the CIVs are not available to creditors of the Company, other than creditors of the applicable CIVs. In addition, creditors of the CIVs have no recourse against the assets of the Company, other than the assets of such applicable CIVs. Liquidity available at the Company’s CIVs is not available for corporate liquidity needs, except to the extent of the Company’s investment in the funds, subject to redemption provisions. Changes in the fair value of assets and liabilities of CIVs, interest income and expense, and gains and losses on consolidation and deconsolidation of CIVs are reported in “fair value gains (losses) on CIVs” in the condensed
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
consolidated statements of operations. As of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company consolidated three CIVs.

Assets and Liabilities of CIVs
As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents$22 $35 
Equity securities89 83 
Structured products264 248 
Other— 
Total assets (1)$377 $366 
Liabilities:
Other liabilities (2)$$
Total liabilities$$
____________________
(1)    Includes investments with affiliated entities of $309 million and $281 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
(2)    The balance is reported in “other liabilities” in the condensed consolidated balance sheets. Includes $3 million with affiliated entities as of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the CIVs included derivative contracts with average notional amounts of $38 million and $41 million, respectively. Derivative instruments, which include forward foreign currency contracts, serve as a component of the CIVs’ investment strategies. The fair value of derivative contracts is reported in the “assets of CIVs” or “other liabilities” in the condensed consolidated balance sheets.
Noncontrolling Interest in CIVs

Noncontrolling interest (NCI) represents the portion of the consolidated funds not owned by the Company and includes ownership interests of third parties and former employees. The NCI is non-redeemable and presented on the statement of shareholders’ equity.

Other Consolidated VIEs

    In certain instances where the Company consolidates a VIE that was established as part of a loss mitigation negotiated settlement that results in the termination of the obligations under the original financial guaranty insurance or insured credit derivative contract, the Company classifies the assets and liabilities of that VIE in the line items that most accurately reflect the nature of such assets and liabilities, as opposed to within FG VIEs’ assets and FG VIEs’ liabilities. The largest of these VIEs had assets of $92 million and liabilities of $7 million as of December 31, 2023, which were reported in “investments” and “credit derivative liabilities” on the condensed consolidated balance sheets. In first quarter 2024, the Company deconsolidated the largest of these VIEs and recognized a $5 million gain on deconsolidation, which is included in “fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives” in the condensed consolidated statements of operations.

Non-Consolidated VIEs

    As described in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, the Company monitors all policies in the insured portfolio. Of the approximately 15 thousand policies monitored as of March 31, 2024, approximately 14 thousand policies are not within the scope of FASB ASC 810 because these financial guaranties relate to the debt obligations of governmental organizations or financing entities established by a governmental organization. The majority of the remaining policies involve transactions where the Company is not deemed to currently have control over the FG VIEs’ most significant activities. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company identified 60 and 68 policies, respectively, that contain provisions and experienced events that may trigger consolidation.
    
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
 BIG Categories
 BIG 1 BIG 2 BIG 3 
Total
BIG, Net
 
Effect of
Consolidating
FG VIEs
 Total
 Gross Ceded Gross Ceded Gross Ceded 
 (dollars in millions)
Number of risks(1)165
 (35) 79
 (11) 148
 (49) 392
 
 392
Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)8.6
 7.0
 13.2
 10.5
 8.1
 6.0
 10.1
 
 10.1
Outstanding exposure: 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Principal$4,187
 $(326) $4,273
 $(416) $4,703
 $(320) $12,101
 $
 $12,101
Interest1,932
 (140) 2,926
 (219) 1,867
 (87) 6,279
 
 6,279
Total(2)$6,119
 $(466) $7,199
 $(635) $6,570
 $(407) $18,380
 $
 $18,380
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$172
 $(19) $1,404
 $(86) $1,435
 $(65) $2,841
 $(326) $2,515
Potential recoveries(3)(440) 23
 (146) 4
 (743) 45
 (1,257) 198
 (1,059)
Subtotal(268) 4
 1,258
 (82) 692
 (20) 1,584
 (128) 1,456
Discount61
 (4) (355) 19
 (114) (4) (397) 24
 (373)
Present value of expected cash flows$(207) $0
 $903
 $(63) $578
 $(24) $1,187
 $(104) $1,083
Deferred premium revenue$131
 $(5) $246
 $(6) $476
 $(30) $812
 $(86) $726
Reserves (salvage)$(255) $5
 $738
 $(58) $343
 $(10) $763
 $(64) $699
____________________
(1)A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments. The ceded number of risks represents the number of risks for which the Company ceded a portion of its exposure.

(2)Includes BIG amounts related to FG VIEs.

(3)Includes excess spread and R&W receivables and payables.


Ratings Impact on Financial Guaranty Business
A downgrade of one of AGL’s insurance subsidiaries may resultThe Company holds variable interests in increased claims under financial guaranties issued byVIEs which are not consolidated, as the Company if counterparties exercise contractual rights triggered byis not the downgrade against insured obligors, andprimary beneficiary. As of March 31, 2024, the insured obligors are unableCompany’s maximum exposure to pay. There have been no material changeslosses relating to the Company's potential claims under interest rate swaps, variable rate demand obligations or guaranteed investment contracts since the filing with the SEC of AGL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016.these VIEs was $395 million.


7.Fair Value Measurement
9.    Fair Value Measurement
 
The Company carries a significant portion of its assets and liabilities at fair value. Fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date (i.e., exit or transfer price). The price represents the price available in the principal market for the asset or liability. If there is no principal market, then the price is based on a hypothetical market that maximizes the value received for an asset or minimizes the amount paid for a liability (i.e., the most advantageous market).
 
Fair value is based on quoted market prices, where available. If listed prices or quotes are not available, fair value is based on either (i) internally developed models that primarily use, as inputs, market-based or independently sourced market parameters including(including, but not limited to, yield curves, interest rates, and debt pricesprices) or with the assistance of an independent third-party using a(ii) discounted cash flow approach and theflows using a third party’s proprietary pricing models. In addition to market information, when applicable, the models also incorporate transaction details, such as maturity of the instrumentinstrument’s maturity and contractual features designed tothat reduce the Company’s credit exposure such as(e.g., collateral rights as applicable.rights).


Valuation adjustments may be made to ensure that financial instruments are recorded at fair value. These adjustments include amounts to reflect counterparty credit quality, the Company’s creditworthiness and constraints on liquidity. As markets and products develop and the pricing transparency for certain products becomes more or less transparent,changes, the Company may refine its methodologies and assumptions. During Nine Months 2017,first quarter 2024, no changes were made to the Company’s valuation models that had or(or are expected to have,have) a material impact on the Company’s condensed consolidated balance sheets or statements of operations and comprehensive income.
 
The Company’s valuation methods for calculatingproduce fair value produce a fair valuevalues that may not be indicative of net realizable value or reflective of future fair values. The use of different methodologies or assumptions to determine fair value of certain financial instruments could result in a materially different estimate of fair value at the reporting date.
 
The categorization within the fair value hierarchy is determined based on whether the inputs to valuation techniques used to measure fair value are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect Company estimates of market assumptions. The fair value hierarchy prioritizes model inputs into three broad levels, as follows, with Level 1 being the highest and Level 3 the lowest. An asset'sThe categorization, of an asset or liability’s categorizationliability, within the hierarchy is based on the lowest level of significant input to its valuation.


Level 1—Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets. The Company generally defines an active market as a market in which trading occurs at significant volumes. Active markets generally are more liquid and have a lower bid-ask spread than an inactive market.
 
Level 2—Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and observable inputs other than quoted prices, such as interest rates or yield curves and other inputs derived from or corroborated by observable market inputs.
 
Level 3—Model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable. Financial instruments are considered Level 3 when their values are (i) determined using pricing models, discounted cash flow methodologies or similar techniques and (ii) at least one significant model assumption or input is unobservable. Level 3 financial instruments also include those for which the determination of fair value requires significant management judgment or estimation.

Transfers between Levels 1, 2 and 3 are recognized at the end of the period when the transfer occurs. The Company reviews the classification between Levels 1, 2 and 3 quarterly to determine whether a transfer is necessary. During the periods
presented, there were no transfers between Level 1 and Level 2. There were no transfers into Level 3 during Third Quarter 2017. There was a transfer of a fixed-maturity securitysecurities into Level 3 in the investment portfolio and in CIVs due to changes in observability of pricing inputs in first quarter 2024. There were no other transfers from Level 2or into Level 3 during Nine Month 2017 because starting in the second quarter of 2017 the price of the security includes a significant unobservable assumption. There were transfers of fixed-maturity securities from Level 2 into Level 3 during Third Quarter 2016 and Nine Months 2016 because of a lack of observability relating to the valuation inputs and collateral pricing.periods presented.
 
Measured and
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Carried at Fair Value
 
Fixed-Maturity Securities and Short-Term Investments

The fair value of bonds in the investment portfoliofixed-maturity securities is generally based on prices received from third partythird-party pricing services or alternative pricing sources withthat provide reasonable levels of price transparency. The pricing services prepare estimates of fair value measurements using their pricing models, which include available relevant market information,take into account: benchmark curves, benchmarking of likeyields, reported trades, broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two-sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers, reference data, industry and economic events and sector groupings. Additional valuation factors that can be taken into account are nominal spreads and liquidity adjustments. The pricing services evaluate each asset class based on relevant market and credit information, perceived market movements, and sector news. The market inputs used in the pricing evaluation include:

In many cases, benchmark yields reported trades, broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two-sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers, reference data and industry and economic events. Benchmark yields have in many cases taken priority overproven to be more reliable indicators of the market for a security, as compared to reported trades for infrequently traded securities that trade less frequently or those that areand distressed trades, and therefore may not be indicative of the market.transactions. The extent of the use of each input is dependent on the asset class and the market conditions. Given the asset class, the priority of the use of inputs may change or some market inputs may not be relevant. Additionally, theThe valuation of fixed-maturity investmentssecurities is more subjective when markets are less liquid due to the lack of market based inputs, which may increase the potential that the estimated fair value of an investment is not reflective of the price at which an actual transaction would occur.market-based inputs.
 

Short-term investments, that are traded in active markets, are classified within Level 1 in the fair value hierarchy and their value is based on quoted market prices. Securities such as discount notes are classified within Level 2 because these securities are typically not actively traded due to their approaching maturity and, as such, their cost approximates fair value.
Annually, the Company reviews each pricing service’s procedures, controls and models used in the valuations of the Company’s investment portfolio, as well as the competency of the pricing service’s key personnel. In addition, on a quarterly basis, the Company holds a meeting of the internal valuation committee (comprised of individuals within the Company with market, valuation, accounting, and/or finance experience) that reviews and approves prices and assumptions used by the pricing services.

For Level 1 and 2 securities, the Company, on a quarterly basis, reviews internally developed analytic packages that highlight, at a CUSIP level, price changes from the previous quarter to the current quarter. Where unexpected price movements are noted for a specific CUSIP, the Company formally challenges the price provided, and reviews all key inputs utilized in the third party’s pricing model, and compares such information to management’s own market information.

For Level 3 securities, the Company, on a quarterly basis:

reviews methodologies, any model updates and inputs and compares such information to management’s own market information and, where applicable, the internal models,

reviews internally developed analytic packages that highlight, at a CUSIP level, price changes from the previous quarter to the current quarter, and evaluates, documents, and resolves any significant pricing differences with the assistance of the third party pricing source, and

compares prices received from different third party pricing sources, and evaluates, documents the rationale for, and resolves any significant pricing differences.

As of September 30, 2017,March 31, 2024, the Company used models to price 91 fixed-maturity securities (primarily securities that were purchased or obtained for loss mitigation or other risk management purposes), which were 11% or $1,266 million of the Company’s fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments at fair value. Most186 securities. All Level 3 securities were priced with the assistance of an independent third-party.third parties. The pricing is based on a discounted cash flow approach using the third-party’sthird party’s proprietary pricing models. The models use inputs such as projected prepayment speeds; severity assumptions; recovery lag assumptions; estimated default rates (determined based on the basis of an analysis of collateral attributes, historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); home price appreciation/depreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecastsforecasts; and recent trading activity. The yield used to discount the projected cash flows is determined by reviewing various attributes of the bondsecurity including collateral type, weighted average life, sensitivity to losses, vintage, and convexity, in conjunction with market data on comparable securities. Significant changes to any of these inputs could have materially changechanged the expected timing of cash flows within these securities which is a significant factor in determiningcould have significantly affected the fair value of the securities.

Short-Term Investments
 
Other Invested Assets

As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, other invested assets includeShort-term investments carried and measured at fairthat are traded in active markets are classified as Level 1 as their value on a recurring basis of $50 million and $52 million, respectively, and include primarily an investment in the global property catastrophe risk market and an investment in a fund that invests primarily in senior loans and bonds. Fair values for the majority of these investments areis based on quoted market prices. Securities such as discount notes are classified as Level 2 because these securities are typically not actively traded due to their respective net asset value (NAV) per share or equivalent.approaching maturity and, as such, their cost approximates fair value.

Other AssetsFinancial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
As of March 31, 2024
(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered) - financial guaranty insurance$188 
Contra-paid, net22 
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net294 
Loss and LAE reserve - financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance(301)
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value)$203 

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
    The following table provides a schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed. The amount and timing of actual loss and LAE may differ from the estimates shown below due to factors such as accelerations, commutations, changes in expected lives and updates to loss estimates. This table excludes amounts related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.
Committed Capital Securities
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
 As of March 31, 2024
 (in millions)
2024 (April 1 - June 30)$
2024 (July 1 - September 30)
2024 (October 1 - December 31)
Subtotal 202410 
202512 
202615 
202716 
202814 
2029-203367 
2034-203847 
2039-204311 
After 204311 
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value)203 
Future accretion(18)
Total expected future loss and LAE$185 
 
The fair valuefollowing table presents the loss and LAE (benefit) reported in the condensed consolidated statements of committed capital securities (CCS)operations by sector for insurance contracts.

Loss and LAE (Benefit) by Sector
 First Quarter
Sector20242023
(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$(2)$(4)
Non-U.S. public finance— — 
Public finance(2)(4)
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS$$
Other structured finance(1)
Structured finance
Loss and LAE (benefit)$(1)$

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), which is recorded in "other assets"Continued
The following tables provide information on the consolidated balance sheets,financial guaranty insurance contracts categorized as BIG.

Financial Guaranty Insurance
BIG Transaction Loss Summary
As of March 31, 2024
 GrossNet Total BIG
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIG
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)91 12 109 212 212 
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)9.415.76.99.79.7
Outstanding exposure:    
Par$2,362 $977 $1,817 $5,156 $5,141 
Interest1,098 893 657 2,648 2,644 
Total (2)$3,460 $1,870 $2,474 $7,804 $7,785 
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$171 $187 $1,472 $1,830 $1,820 
Potential recoveries (3)(363)(77)(1,219)(1,659)(1,650)
Subtotal(192)110 253 171 170 
Discount53 (23)(12)18 18 
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)$(139)$87 $241 $189 $188 
Deferred premium revenue$96 $62 $136 $294 $294 
Reserves (salvage)$(175)$45 $137 $$
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Financial Guaranty Insurance
BIG Transaction Loss Summary
As of December 31, 2023
 GrossNet Total BIG
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIG
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)95 13 109 217 217 
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)9.615.97.59.910.0
Outstanding exposure: 
Par$2,400 $979 $2,019 $5,398 $5,383 
Interest1,126 896 818 2,840 2,836 
Total (2)$3,526 $1,875 $2,837 $8,238 $8,219 
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$176 $187 $1,585 $1,948 $1,938 
Potential recoveries (3)(376)(78)(1,214)(1,668)(1,659)
Subtotal(200)109 371 280 279 
Discount56 (22)(53)(19)(19)
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)$(144)$87 $318 $261 $260 
Deferred premium revenue$100 $63 $142 $305 $305 
Reserves (salvage)$(181)$45 $209 $73 $72 
____________________
(1)    A risk represents the difference betweenaggregate of the present valuefinancial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of remainingmaking debt service payments.
(2)Includes amounts related to FG VIEs.
(3)Represents expected put option premiuminflows from future payments under AGC’s CCS (the AGC CCS)by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and AGM’s Committed Preferred Trust Securities (the AGM CPS) agreements,other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment grade credits, related mainly to exposures that were previously BIG and the estimated present value that the Company would hypotheticallyfor which claims have to pay currently for a comparable security (please refer to Note 15, Long Term Debt and Credit Facilities). The AGC CCS and AGM CPS are carried at fair value with changes in fair value recordedbeen paid in the consolidated statement of operations. The estimated current cost of the Company’s CCS is based on several factors, including AGM and AGC CDS spreads, London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) curve projections, the Company's publicly traded debt and the term the securities are estimated to remain outstanding.past.



Supplemental Executive Retirement Plans

The Company classifies the fair value measurement of the assets of the Company's various supplemental executive retirement plans as either Level 1 or Level 2. The fair value of these assets is valued based on the observable published daily values of the underlying mutual fund included in the aforementioned plans (Level 1) or based upon the NAV of the funds if a published daily value is not available (Level 2). The NAV are based on observable information.
6.    Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives
 
The Company’s creditAmounts presented in this note relate only to contracts accounted for as derivatives, consistwhich are primarily of insured CDS, contracts, and also include interest rate swapsswaps.
The Company’s credit derivatives are generally governed by International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. documentation and have certain characteristics that falldiffer from financial guaranty insurance contracts. For example, the Company’s control rights with respect to a reference obligation under a CDS may be more limited than when the Company issues a financial guaranty insurance contract. In addition, there are more circumstances under which the Company may be obligated to make payments. Similar to a financial guaranty insurance contract, the Company would be obligated to pay if the obligor failed to make a scheduled payment of principal or interest in full. In certain credit derivative accounting standards requiring fair value accounting throughtransactions, the statement of operations. The followingCompany also specifically agreed to pay if the obligor were to become bankrupt or if the reference obligation were restructured. Furthermore, in certain credit derivative transactions, the Company may be required to make a payment due to an event that is a descriptionunrelated to the performance of the fair value methodology applied toobligation referenced in the Company's insured CDS that are accounted for as credit derivatives, which constitutederivative. If events of default or termination events specified in the vast majority of the net credit derivative liability indocumentation were to occur, the consolidated balance sheets. Thenon-defaulting or the non-affected party, which may be either the Company did not enter into CDS withor the intentcounterparty, depending upon the circumstances, may decide to trade these contracts andterminate a credit derivative prior to maturity. In that case, the Company may be required to make a termination payment to its swap counterparty upon such termination. Absent such an event of default or termination event, the Company may not unilaterally terminate a CDS contract absent an event of default or termination event that entitlescredit derivative contract; however, the Company to terminate such contracts; however, the Companyon occasion has mutually agreed with various counterparties to terminate certain CDS transactions. In transactions where

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The components of the counterparty does not haveCompany’s credit derivative net par outstanding by sector are presented in the righttable below. The estimated remaining weighted average life of credit derivatives was 10.9 years and 11.1 years as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

Credit Derivatives (1)
 As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
SectorNet Par
Outstanding
Net Fair Value Asset (Liability)Net Par
Outstanding
Net Fair Value Asset (Liability)
 (in millions)
U.S. public finance$1,077 $(14)$1,149 $(15)
Non-U.S. public finance1,507 (19)1,522 (20)
U.S. structured finance223 (5)322 (13)
Non-U.S. structured finance614 (1)615 (2)
Total$3,421 $(39)$3,608 $(50)
____________________
(1)    Expected loss to terminate, such transactions are generally terminated for an amount that approximates the present valuebe paid was $1 million and $2 million as of future premiums or for a negotiated amount, rather than at fair value.March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

Fair Value Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements$(1)$
Net unrealized gains (losses)11 14 
Fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives$10 $15 
    
The impact of changes in credit spreads will vary based upon the volume, tenor, interest rates and other market conditions at the time these fair values are determined. In addition, since each transaction has unique collateral and structural terms, the change in fair value of the Company’s CDS contracts differ from more standardizedeach transaction may vary considerably. The fair value of credit derivative contracts sold by companies outside the financial guaranty industry. The non-standard terms generally include the absence of collateral support agreements or immediate settlement provisions. In addition, the Company employs relatively high attachment points and does not exit derivatives it sells, except under specific circumstances such as mutual agreements with counterparties. Management considers the non-standard terms of its credit derivative contracts in determining the fair value of these contracts.
Due to the lack of quoted prices and other observable inputs for its instruments or for similar instruments, the Company determines the fair value of its credit derivative contracts primarily through internally developed, proprietary models that use both observable and unobservable market data inputs to derive an estimate of the fair value of the Company's contracts in its principal markets (see "Assumptions and Inputs"). There is no established market where financial guaranty insured credit derivatives are actively traded, therefore, management has determined that the exit market for the Company’s credit derivatives is a hypothetical one based on its entry market. Management has tracked the historical pricing of the Company’s transactions to establish historical price points in the hypothetical market that are used in the fair value calculation. These contracts are classified as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy since there is reliance on at least one unobservable input deemed significant to the valuation model, most importantly the Company’s estimate of the value of the non-standard terms and conditions of its credit derivative contracts and howalso reflects the Company’s own credit spread affectscost based on the pricingprice to purchase credit protection on AGC. The Company determines its own credit risk primarily based on quoted CDS prices traded on AGC at each balance sheet date.
CDS Spread on AGC (in basis points)
 As of March 31,
2024
As of December 31, 2023As of March 31,
2023
As of December 31, 2022
Five-year CDS spread52668363
One-year CDS spread19233126

Fair Value of its transactions.Credit Derivative Assets (Liabilities)

and Effect of AGC Credit Spread
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Fair value of credit derivatives before effect of AGC credit spread$(56)$(76)
Plus: Effect of AGC credit spread17 26 
Net fair value of credit derivatives$(39)$(50)
The Company’s models and the related assumptions are continuously reevaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based upon improvements in modeling techniques and availability of more timely and relevant market information.

The fair value of CDS contracts as of March 31, 2024, before considering the benefit applicable to AGC’s credit spread, is a direct result of the relatively wider credit spreads under current market conditions compared to those at the time of underwriting for certain underlying credits with longer tenor.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
7.    Investments

The majority of the investment portfolio comprises investment grade fixed-maturity securities managed by three outside managers. The Company has established investment guidelines for these investment managers regarding credit quality, exposure to a particular sector and exposure to a particular obligor within a sector.

The remainder of the investment portfolio primarily consists of (i) Loss Mitigation Securities; (ii) CVIs received in connection with the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions; (iii) equity method investments; and (iv) short-term investments. Equity method investments primarily consist of the investment in Sound Point and fund investments across a variety of strategies.

Investment Portfolio
Carrying Value
As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale (1):
Externally managed$5,383 $5,372 
Loss Mitigation Securities464 459 
Other244 476 
Fixed-maturity securities, trading - Puerto Rico, CVIs (2)272 318 
Short-term investments1,649 1,661 
Other invested assets:
Equity method investments:
Sound Point417 429 
Alternative investments (3)451 394 
Other
Total (4)$8,887 $9,115 
____________________
(1)    9.5% and 9.2% of fixed-maturity securities, available for sale, were rated BIG or not rated as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. BIG rated securities consisted primarily of Loss Mitigation Securities.
(2)    These securities are not rated.
(3)     Excludes certain investments in funds that are consolidated and accounted for as CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.
(4)     The aggregate carrying value of the Company’s credit derivative contracts represents the difference between the present valueinvestments in Sound Point, and Sound Point managed funds was $636 million and $631 million as of remaining premiums theMarch 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
The Company expectshas agreed to receive or pay and the estimated present value of premiums that a financial guarantor of comparable credit-worthiness would hypothetically charge or pay at the reporting date for the same protection.invest $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval. The fair value of alternative investments as of March 31, 2024 was $803 million. The Company had $743 million in unfunded commitments to alternative investments (of which $324 million is committed to specific funds). See Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation for a description of the Sound Point Transaction.

Of the $1.5 billion mentioned above, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment subsidiary, AGAS, are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $162 million for a total of $912 million as of March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to Sound Point and AHP funds were $772 million (of which $574 million was funded with a net asset value (NAV) of $632 million). This capital was committed to several funds, each dedicated to a single strategy, including CLOs, asset-based/special finance and healthcare structured capital. As of March 31, 2024, three of the eight funds in which AGAS invests are accounted for as CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Accrued investment income, which is reported in “other assets,” was $72 million as of March 31, 2024 and $71 million as of December 31, 2023.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Security Type
As of March 31, 2024
Security TypePercent
of
Total (1)
Amortized
Cost
Allowance for Credit LossesGross
Unrealized
Gains
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
Estimated
Fair
Value
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions37 %$2,418 $(14)$27 $(100)$2,331 
U.S. government and agencies60 — (6)55 
Corporate securities (2)35 2,307 (6)10 (210)2,101 
Mortgage-backed securities (3): 
RMBS490 (22)(69)402 
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)202 — — (6)196 
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs442 — (4)439 
Other535 (25)(28)483 
Non-U.S. government securities99 — — (15)84 
Total available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities100 %$6,553 $(67)$43 $(438)$6,091 

Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Security Type
As of December 31, 2023
Security TypePercent
of
Total (1)
Amortized
Cost
Allowance for Credit LossesGross
Unrealized
Gains
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
Estimated
Fair
Value
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions41 %$2,733 $(13)$33 $(92)$2,661 
U.S. government and agencies65 — (6)60 
Corporate securities (2)34 2,327 (6)17 (197)2,141 
Mortgage-backed securities (3):    
RMBS428 (21)(68)342 
CMBS157 — — (6)151 
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs456 — (7)450 
Other465 (37)— (26)402 
Non-U.S. government securities115 — — (15)100 
Total available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities100 %$6,746 $(77)$55 $(417)$6,307 
____________________
(1)Based on amortized cost.
(2)Includes securities issued by taxable universities and hospitals.
(3)U.S. government-agency obligations were approximately 56% and 42% of mortgage-backed securities as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, based on fair value.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities for Which a Credit Loss was Not Recorded
As of March 31, 2024
 Less than 12 months12 months or moreTotal
 Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$603 $(3)$1,250 $(96)$1,853 $(99)
U.S. government and agencies— 33 (6)40 (6)
Corporate securities164 (2)1,384 (168)1,548 (170)
Mortgage-backed securities: 
RMBS34 — 138 (11)172 (11)
CMBS— 127 (6)131 (6)
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs— 222 (2)231 (2)
Other— 26 (1)35 (1)
Non-U.S. government securities— — 79 (15)79 (15)
Total$830 $(5)$3,259 $(305)$4,089 $(310)
Number of securities (1) 319  1,311  1,609 
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities for Which a Credit Loss was Not Recorded
As of December 31, 2023
 Less than 12 months12 months or moreTotal
 Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$641 $(4)$931 $(87)$1,572 $(91)
U.S. government and agencies— — 33 (6)33 (6)
Corporate securities72 (1)1,426 (152)1,498 (153)
Mortgage-backed securities:    
RMBS27 (1)124 (8)151 (9)
CMBS— 148 (6)151 (6)
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs22 (1)379 (6)401 (7)
Other— 26 (1)27 (1)
Non-U.S. government securities— — 95 (15)95 (15)
Total$766 $(7)$3,162 $(281)$3,928 $(288)
Number of securities (1) 274  1,266  1,525 
___________________
(1)    The number of securities does not add across because lots consisting of the same securities have been purchased at different times and appear in both categories above (i.e., less than 12 months and 12 months or more). If a security appears in both categories, it is counted only once in the total column.

The Company considered the credit quality, cash flows, interest rate movements, ability to hold a security to recovery and intent to sell a security in determining whether a security had a credit loss. The Company has determined that the unrealized losses recorded as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 were primarily related to higher interest rates rather than credit quality. As of March 31, 2024, the Company did not intend to and was not required to sell investments in an unrealized loss position prior to expected recovery in value. As of March 31, 2024, of the securities in an unrealized loss position for which an allowance for credit loss was not recorded, 458 securities had unrealized losses in excess of 10% of their carrying value,
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
whereas as of December 31, 2023, 409 securities had unrealized losses in excess of 10% of their carrying value. The total unrealized loss for these securities was $224 million as of March 31, 2024 and $200 million as of December 31, 2023.

The amortized cost and estimated fair value of available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities by contractual maturity as of March 31, 2024 are shown below. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.
Distribution of Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Contractual Maturity
As of March 31, 2024
 Amortized
Cost
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Due within one year$289 $283 
Due after one year through five years1,373 1,305 
Due after five years through 10 years1,605 1,527 
Due after 10 years2,594 2,378 
Mortgage-backed securities:  
RMBS490 402 
CMBS202 196 
Total$6,553 $6,091 

    Based on fair value, fixed-maturity securities, short-term investments and cash that are either held in trust for the benefit of third-party ceding insurers in accordance with statutory requirements, placed on deposit to fulfill state licensing requirements, or otherwise pledged or restricted, totaled $143 million as of March 31, 2024 and $234 million as of December 31, 2023. The investment portfolio also contains securities that are held in trust by certain AGL subsidiaries or are otherwise restricted for the benefit of other AGL subsidiaries in accordance with statutory and regulatory requirements with a fair value of $1,144 million and $1,154 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Income from Investments

The components of income derived from the investment portfolio are presented in the following tables.

Income from Investments
 First Quarter
 20242023
(in millions)
Investment income:
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale:
Externally managed$51 $52 
Loss Mitigation Securities
Puerto Rico, New Recovery Bonds— 
Other
Short-term investments23 13 
Investment income85 82 
Investment expenses(1)(1)
Net investment income$84 $81 
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities (1)$26 $(2)
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees:
Sound Point (2)$$— 
Funds (3)14 — 
Other
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees$24 $
____________________
(1)    Fair value gains on trading securities pertaining to securities still held as of March 31, 2024 were $22 million for first quarter 2024. Fair value losses on trading securities pertaining to securities still held as of March 31, 2023 were $2 million for first quarter 2023.
(2)    Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2023, equity in earnings (losses) includes the Company’s credit derivatives dependsshare of the earnings of Sound Point, which is reported on a numberone-quarter lag.
(3)     Sound Point and AHP funds, and, prior to July 1 2023, AssuredIM funds.

Realized Investment Gains (Losses)

    The table below presents the components of factors,net realized investment gains (losses). Realized gains and losses on sales of investments are determined using the specific identification method.

Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Gross realized gains on sales of available-for-sale securities$$12 
Gross realized losses on sales of available-for-sale securities(3)(9)
Change in the allowance for credit losses and intent to sell (1)10 (5)
Net realized investment gains (losses)$$(2)
____________________
(1)    Change in allowance for credit losses for all periods was primarily related to Loss Mitigation Securities.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The following table presents the roll forward of allowance for the credit losses on available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities.

Roll Forward of Allowance for Credit Losses
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Balance, beginning of period$77 $65 
Additions (reductions) for securities for which credit losses were previously recognized(10)
Balance, end of period$67 $69 

The Company did not purchase any securities with credit deterioration during first quarter 2024 and first quarter 2023. Most of the Company’s allowance for credit losses relates to Loss Mitigation Securities.

8.    Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles

FG VIEs

Structured Finance and Other FG VIEs
The insurance subsidiaries provide financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including notionalVIEs, but do not act as the servicer or collateral manager for any VIE obligations they guarantee. The transaction structure generally provides certain financial protections to the insurance subsidiaries. This financial protection can take several forms, the most common of which are overcollateralization, first loss protection (or subordination) and excess spread. In the case of overcollateralization (i.e., the principal amount of the contract, expected term,securitized assets exceeds the principal amount of the structured finance obligations), the structure allows defaults of the securitized assets before a default is experienced on the structured finance obligation guaranteed by the insurance subsidiaries. In the case of first loss, the insurance subsidiaries’ financial guaranty insurance policy only covers a senior layer of losses experienced by multiple obligations issued by the VIEs. The first loss exposure with respect to the assets is either retained by the seller or sold off in the form of equity or mezzanine debt to other investors. In the case of excess spread, the financial assets contributed to VIEs generate interest income that is in excess of the interest payments on the debt issued by the VIE. Such excess spread is typically distributed through the transaction’s cash flow waterfall and may be used to create additional credit spreads, changesenhancement, applied to redeem debt issued by the VIE (thereby, creating additional overcollateralization), or distributed to equity or other investors in the transaction.

    The insurance subsidiaries are not primarily liable for the debt obligations issued by the structured finance and other FG VIEs (which excludes the Puerto Rico Trusts described below) they insure and would only be required to make payments on those insured debt obligations in the event that the issuer of such debt obligations defaults on any principal or interest rates,due and only for the credit ratingsamount of referenced entities,the shortfall. AGL’s and its insurance subsidiaries’ creditors do not have any rights with regard to the collateral supporting the debt issued by the structured finance and other FG VIEs. Proceeds from sales, maturities, prepayments and interest from such underlying collateral may only be used to pay debt service on structured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities.

As part of the terms of its financial guaranty contracts, the insurance subsidiaries obtain certain protective rights with respect to the VIE that give them additional controls over a VIE. These protective rights are triggered by the occurrence of certain events, such as failure to be in compliance with a covenant due to poor deal performance or a deterioration in a servicer’s or collateral manager’s financial condition. At deal inception, the insurance subsidiaries typically are not deemed to control the VIE; however, once a trigger event occurs, the insurance subsidiaries’ control of the VIE typically increases. The Company continuously evaluates its power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of VIEs that have debt obligations insured by the insurance subsidiaries and, accordingly, where they are obligated to absorb VIE losses or receive benefits that could potentially be significant to the VIE. The insurance subsidiaries are deemed to be the control party for certain VIEs under GAAP, typically when their protective rights give them the power to both terminate and replace the transaction’s servicer or collateral manager, which are characteristics specific to the Company’s own credit riskfinancial guaranty contracts. If the protective rights that could make the insurance subsidiaries the control party have not been triggered, then the VIE is not consolidated. If the insurance subsidiaries are deemed to no longer have those protective rights, the VIE is deconsolidated.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The structured finance and remaining contractual cash flows.other FG VIEs’ liabilities that are guaranteed by the insurance subsidiaries are considered to be with recourse, because the insurance subsidiaries guarantee the payment of principal and interest regardless of the performance of the related FG VIEs’ assets. The expected remaining contractual premium cash flowsstructured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities that are not guaranteed by the most readily observable inputs since theyinsurance subsidiaries are basedconsidered to be without recourse, because the payment of principal and interest of these liabilities is wholly dependent on the CDS contractual terms. Credit spreads capture the effect of recovery rates and performance of underlying assets of these contracts, among other factors. Consistent with previous years, market conditions at September 30, 2017 were such that market prices of the Company’s CDS contracts were not available.FG VIEs’ assets.

Management considers factors such as current prices charged for similar agreements, when available, performance of underlying assets, life of the instrument, and the nature and extent of activity in the financial guaranty credit derivative marketplace. The assumptions that management uses to determineCompany has elected the fair value mayoption (FVO) for all assets and all liabilities of the structured finance and other FG VIEs. Upon initial adoption of the accounting guidance for VIEs in 2010, the Company elected to fair value its structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities as the carrying amount transition method was not practical. To allow for consistency in the accounting for the assets and liabilities of its consolidated FG VIEs other than the Puerto Rico Trusts, the Company elected the FVO. The change in fair value of all structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities is reported in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs” in the future duecondensed consolidated statement of operations, except for the change in fair value attributable to market conditions. Duechange in instrument-specific credit risk (ISCR) on the structured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities, which is reported in other comprehensive income (OCI). The ISCR amount is determined by using expected cash flows at the original date of consolidation, discounted at the effective yield, less current expected cash flows discounted at that same original effective yield. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company consolidated 23 and 24 structured finance and other FG VIEs, respectively.

Puerto Rico Trusts

With respect to certain insured securities covered by the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions, insured bondholders were permitted to elect to receive custody receipts that represent an interest in the legacy insurance policy plus cash and investments. At least one separate custodial trust was set up for each legacy insured bond, and the trusts are deconsolidated when their liabilities are paid off. For those who made the election above, distributions of Plan Consideration are passed through to insured bondholders under the custody receipts to the inherent uncertaintiesextent of any cash or proceeds of new securities held in the custodial trust and are applied to make payments and/or prepayments of amounts due under the legacy insured bonds. The Company’s insurance policy continues to guarantee principal and interest coming due on the legacy insured bonds in accordance with the terms of such insurance policy on the originally scheduled legacy bond interest and principal payment dates to the extent that distributions of Plan Consideration are insufficient to pay or prepay such amounts after giving effect to the distributions described in the immediately preceding sentence. In the case of insured bondholders who elected to receive custody receipts, the Company retains the right to satisfy its obligations under the insurance policy with respect to the related legacy insured bonds at any time thereafter, with 30 days’ notice, by paying 100% of the assumptions usedthen outstanding principal amount of insured bonds plus accrued interest.

By December 31, 2023, substantially all of the securities in the valuation models, actual experience may differ fromPuerto Rico Trusts had been called, and the estimates reflectedassets in the Company’s consolidated financial statements and the differences may be material.


Assumptions and Inputs

The various inputs and assumptions that are keyPuerto Rico Trusts consisted primarily of cash. In January 2024, such cash proceeds were used to the establishmentpay down a portion of the Company’s fair valueliabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts. The remaining liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts will be paid by the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the credit of PRHTA. For the Puerto Rico Trust liabilities, the Company elected the FVO in order to simplify the accounting for CDS contracts are as follows:
Gross spread.

The allocationthese instruments. As of gross spread among:

the profit the originator, usually an investment bank, realizes for structuringboth March 31, 2024 and funding the transaction (bank profit);

premiums paid to the Company for the Company’s credit protection provided (net spread); and

the cost of CDS protection purchased by the originator to hedge its counterparty credit risk exposure to the Company (hedge cost).

The weighted average life which is based on debt service schedules.

The rates used to discount future expected premium cash flows ranged from 1.36% to 2.53% at September 30, 2017 and 1.00% to 2.55% at December 31, 2016.
The Company obtains gross spreads on its outstanding contracts from market data sources published by third parties (e.g., dealer spread tables for the collateral similar to assets within the Company’s transactions), as well as collateral-specific spreads provided by trustees or obtained from market sources. If observable market credit spreads are not available or reliable for the underlying reference obligations, then market indices are used that most closely resemble the underlying reference obligations, considering asset class, credit quality rating and maturity of the underlying reference obligations. These indices are adjusted to reflect the non-standard terms of the Company’s CDS contracts. Market sources determine credit spreads by reviewing new issuance pricing for specific asset classes and receiving price quotes from their trading desks for the specific asset in question. Management validates these quotes by cross-referencing quotes received from one market source against quotes received from another market source to ensure reasonableness. In addition,2023 the Company compares the relative change in price quotes received from one quarter to another with the relative change experienced by published market indices for a specific asset class. Collateral specific spreads obtained from third-party, independent market sources are un-published spread quotes from market participants or market traders who are not trustees. Management obtains this information as the result of direct communication with these sourcesconsolidated 24 custodial trusts established as part of the valuation process.Puerto Rico resolutions reached in 2022. See Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, Exposure to Puerto Rico.


With respect to CDS transactions for which there is an expected claim payment within the next twelve months, the allocationComponents of gross spread reflects a higher allocation to the cost of credit rather than the bank profit component. In the current market, it is assumed that a bank would be willing to accept a lower profit on distressed transactions in order to remove these transactions from its financial statements.
The following spread hierarchy is utilized in determining which source of gross spread to use, with the rule being to use CDS spreads where available. If not available, CDS spreads are either interpolated or extrapolated based on similar transactions or market indices.
Actual collateral specific credit spreads (if up-to-date and reliable market-based spreads are available).

Transactions priced or closed during a specific quarter within a specific asset class and specific rating. No transactions closed during the periods presented.

Credit spreads interpolated based upon market indices.

Credit spreads provided by the counterparty of the CDS.

Credit spreads extrapolated based upon transactions of similar asset classes, similar ratings, and similar time to maturity.

Information by Credit Spread Type (1)
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
Based on actual collateral specific spreads12% 7%
Based on market indices53% 77%
Provided by the CDS counterparty35% 16%
Total100% 100%
 ____________________
(1)    Based on par.
Over time the data inputs can change as new sources become available or existing sources are discontinued or are no longer considered to be the most appropriate. It is the Company’s objective to move to higher levels on the hierarchy whenever possible, but it is sometimes necessary to move to lower priority inputs because of discontinued data sources or management’s assessment that the higher priority inputs are no longer considered to be representative of market spreads for a given type of collateral. This can happen, for example, if transaction volume changes such that a previously used spread index is no longer viewed as being reflective of current market levels.
The Company interpolates a curve based on the historical relationship between the premium the Company receives when a credit derivative is closed to the daily closing price of the market index related to the specific asset class and rating of the transaction. This curve indicates expected credit spreads at each indicative level on the related market index. For transactions with unique terms or characteristics where no price quotes are available, management extrapolates credit spreads based on a similar transaction for which the Company has received a spread quote from one of the first three sources within the Company’s spread hierarchy. This alternative transaction will be within the same asset class, have similar underlying assets, similar credit ratings, and similar time to maturity. The Company then calculates the percentage of relative spread change quarter over quarter for the alternative transaction. This percentage change is then applied to the historical credit spread of the transaction for which no price quote was received in order to calculate the transaction's current spread. Counterparties determine credit spreads by reviewing new issuance pricing for specific asset classes and receiving price quotes from their trading desks for the specific asset in question. These quotes are validated by cross-referencing quotes received from one market source with those quotes received from another market source to ensure reasonableness.
The premium the Company receives is referred to as the “net spread.” The Company’s pricing model takes into account not only how credit spreads on risks that it assumes affect pricing, but also how the Company’s own credit spread affects the pricing of its transactions. The Company’s own credit risk is factored into the determination of net spread based on the impact of changes in the quoted market price for credit protection bought on the Company, as reflected by quoted market prices on CDS referencing AGC or AGM. For credit spreads on the Company’s name the Company obtains the quoted price of CDS contracts traded on AGC and AGM from market data sources published by third parties. The cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AGC or AGM affects the amount of spread on CDS transactions that the Company retains and, hence, their fair value. As the cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AGC or AGM increases, the amount of premium the Company retains on a transaction generally decreases. As the cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AGC or AGM decreases, the amount of premium the Company retains on a transaction generally increases. In the Company’s valuation model, the premium the Company captures is not permitted to go below the minimum rate that the Company would currently charge to assume similar risks. This assumption can have the effect of mitigating the amount of unrealized gains that are recognized on certain CDS contracts. Given the current market conditions and the Company’s own credit spreads, approximately 46%, 34% and 26% based on number of transactions, of the Company's CDS contracts are fair valued using this minimum premium as of September 30, 2017, June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively. The percentage of transactions that price using the minimum premiums fluctuates due to changes in AGM's and AGC's credit spreads. In general when AGM's and AGC's credit spreads narrow, the cost to hedge AGM's and AGC's name declines and more transactions price above previously established floor levels. Meanwhile, when AGM's and AGC's credit spreads widen, the cost to hedge AGM's and AGC's name increases causing more transactions to price at previously established floor levels. The Company corroborates the assumptions in its fair value model, including the portion of exposure to AGC and AGM hedged by its counterparties, with independent third parties each reporting period. The current level of AGC’s and AGM’s own credit spread has resulted in the bank or transaction originator hedging a significant portion of its exposure to AGC and AGM. This reduces the amount of contractual cash flows AGC and AGM can capture as premium for selling its protection.

The amount of premium a financial guaranty insurance market participant can demand is inversely related to the cost of credit protection on the insurance company as measured by market credit spreads assuming all other assumptions remain

constant. This is because the buyers of credit protection typically hedge a portion of their risk to the financial guarantor, due to the fact that the contractual terms of the Company's contracts typically do not require the posting of collateral by the guarantor. The extent of the hedge depends on the types of instruments insured and the current market conditions.
A fair value resulting in a credit derivative asset on protection sold is the result of contractual cash inflows on in-force transactions in excess of what a hypothetical financial guarantor could receive if it sold protection on the same risk as of the reporting date. If the Company were able to freely exchange these contracts (i.e., assuming its contracts did not contain proscriptions on transfer and there was a viable exchange market), it would be able to realize a gain representing the difference between the higher contractual premiums to which it is entitled and the current market premiums for a similar contract. The Company determines the fair value of its CDS contracts by applying the difference between the current net spread and the contractual net spread for the remaining duration of each contract to the notional value of its CDS contracts and taking the present value of such amounts discounted at the corresponding LIBOR over the weighted average remaining life of the contract.
Example
The following is an example of how changes in gross spreads, the Company’s own credit spread and the cost to buy protection on the Company affect the amount of premium the Company can demand for its credit protection. The assumptions used in these examples are hypothetical amounts. Scenario 1 represents the market conditions in effect on the transaction date and Scenario 2 represents market conditions at a subsequent reporting date.
 Scenario 1 Scenario 2
 bps % of Total bps % of Total
Original gross spread/cash bond price (in bps)185
  
 500
  
Bank profit (in bps)115
 62% 50
 10%
Hedge cost (in bps)30
 16% 440
 88%
The premium the Company receives per annum (in bps)40
 22% 10
 2%
In Scenario 1, the gross spread is 185 basis points. The bank or transaction originator captures 115 basis points of the original gross spread and hedges 10% of its exposure to AGC, when the CDS spread on AGC was 300 basis points (300 basis points × 10% = 30 basis points). Under this scenario the Company receives premium of 40 basis points, or 22% of the gross spread.
In Scenario 2, the gross spread is 500 basis points. The bank or transaction originator captures 50 basis points of the original gross spread and hedges 25% of its exposure to AGC, when the CDS spread on AGC was 1,760 basis points (1,760 basis points × 25% = 440 basis points). Under this scenario the Company would receive premium of 10 basis points, or 2% of the gross spread. Due to the increased cost to hedge AGC’s name, the amount of profit the bank would expect to receive, and the premium the Company would expect to receive decline significantly.
In this example, the contractual cash flows (the Company premium received per annum above) exceed the amount a market participant would require the Company to pay in today’s market to accept its obligations under the CDS contract, thus resulting in an asset.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Model
The Company’s credit derivative valuation model, like any financial model, has certain strengths and weaknesses.
The primary strengths of the Company’s CDS modeling techniques are:
The model takes into account the transaction structure and the key drivers of market value. The transaction structure includes par insured, weighted average life, level of subordination and composition of collateral.

The model maximizes the use of market-driven inputs whenever they are available. The key inputs to the model are market-based spreads for the collateral, and the credit rating of referenced entities. These are viewed by the Company to be the key parameters that affect fair value of the transaction.


The model is a consistent approach to valuing positions. The Company has developed a hierarchy for market-based spread inputs that helps mitigate the degree of subjectivity during periods of high illiquidity.
The primary weaknesses of the Company’s CDS modeling techniques are:
There is no exit market or any actual exit transactions. Therefore the Company’s exit market is a hypothetical one based on the Company’s entry market.

There is a very limited market in which to validate the reasonableness of the fair values developed by the Company’s model.

The markets for the inputs to the model are highly illiquid, which impacts their reliability.

Due to the non-standard terms under which the Company enters into derivative contracts, the fair value of its credit derivatives may not reflect the same prices observed in an actively traded market of credit derivatives that do not contain terms and conditions similar to those observed in the financial guaranty market.

These contracts were classified as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy because there is a reliance on at least one unobservable input deemed significant to the valuation model, most significantly the Company's estimate of the value of non-standard terms and conditions of its credit derivative contracts and amount of protection purchased on AGC or AGM's name.

Fair Value Option on FG VIEs’ Assets and Liabilities


Net fair value gains and losses on FG VIEs are expected to reverse to zero by the maturity of the FG VIEs’ debt, except for net premiums received and net claims paid by the insurance subsidiaries under the financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company’s estimate of expected loss to be paid (recovered) for FG VIEs is included in Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered).

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The Company electedtable below shows the faircarrying value option for all theof FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities segregated by type of collateral.

Consolidated FG VIEs by Type of Collateral
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
FG VIEs’ assets:
U.S. RMBS first lien$139 $145 
U.S. RMBS second lien26 28 
Puerto Rico Trusts’ assets (includes $2 and $1 at fair value) (1)155 
Total FG VIEs’ assets$167 $328 
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien$151 $156 
U.S. RMBS second lien20 21 
Puerto Rico Trusts’ liabilities218 366 
Total FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse$389 $543 
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien$10 $11 
Total FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse$10 $11 
____________________
(1)    Includes $154 million of cash as December 31, 2023.

The inception-to-date change in fair value of the FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse (all of which are measured at fair value under the FVO) attributable to the ISCR is calculated by holding all current period assumptions constant for each security and isolating the effect of the change in the insurance subsidiaries’ CDS spread from the most recent date of consolidation to the current period.

Selected Information for FG VIEs’ Assets and Liabilities
Measured under the FVO
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Excess of unpaid principal over fair value of:
FG VIEs’ assets$260 $259 
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse31 25 
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse16 16 
Unpaid principal balance for FG VIEs’ assets that were 90 days or more past due27 29 
Unpaid principal for FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse (1)
420 568 
____________________
(1)    FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse will mature at various dates ranging from 2024 through 2041.

CIVs

CIVs consist of certain Sound Point funds for which the Company is the primary beneficiary or has a controlling interest. The Company consolidates investment vehicles that are VIEs when it is deemed to be the primary beneficiary, based on its power to direct the most significant activities of each VIE and its level of economic interest in the entities.

The assets and liabilities of the Company’s CIVs are held within separate legal entities. The assets of the CIVs are not available to creditors of the Company, other than creditors of the applicable CIVs. In addition, creditors of the CIVs have no recourse against the assets of the Company, other than the assets of such applicable CIVs. Liquidity available at the Company’s CIVs is not available for corporate liquidity needs, except to the extent of the Company’s investment in the funds, subject to redemption provisions. Changes in the fair value of assets and liabilities of CIVs, interest income and expense, and gains and losses on consolidation and deconsolidation of CIVs are reported in “fair value gains (losses) on CIVs” in the condensed
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
consolidated statements of operations. As of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company consolidated three CIVs.

Assets and Liabilities of CIVs
As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents$22 $35 
Equity securities89 83 
Structured products264 248 
Other— 
Total assets (1)$377 $366 
Liabilities:
Other liabilities (2)$$
Total liabilities$$
____________________
(1)    Includes investments with affiliated entities of $309 million and $281 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
(2)    The balance is reported in “other liabilities” in the condensed consolidated balance sheets. Includes $3 million with affiliated entities as of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the CIVs included derivative contracts with average notional amounts of $38 million and $41 million, respectively. Derivative instruments, which include forward foreign currency contracts, serve as a component of the CIVs’ investment strategies. The fair value of derivative contracts is reported in the “assets of CIVs” or “other liabilities” in the condensed consolidated balance sheets.
Noncontrolling Interest in CIVs

Noncontrolling interest (NCI) represents the portion of the consolidated funds not owned by the Company and includes ownership interests of third parties and former employees. The NCI is non-redeemable and presented on the statement of shareholders’ equity.

Other Consolidated VIEs

    In certain instances where the Company consolidates a VIE that was established as part of a loss mitigation negotiated settlement that results in the termination of the obligations under the original financial guaranty insurance or insured credit derivative contract, the Company classifies the assets and liabilities of that VIE in the line items that most accurately reflect the nature of such assets and liabilities, as opposed to within FG VIEs’ assets and FG VIEs’ liabilities. Please referThe largest of these VIEs had assets of $92 million and liabilities of $7 million as of December 31, 2023, which were reported in “investments” and “credit derivative liabilities” on the condensed consolidated balance sheets. In first quarter 2024, the Company deconsolidated the largest of these VIEs and recognized a $5 million gain on deconsolidation, which is included in “fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives” in the condensed consolidated statements of operations.

Non-Consolidated VIEs

    As described in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, the Company monitors all policies in the insured portfolio. Of the approximately 15 thousand policies monitored as of March 31, 2024, approximately 14 thousand policies are not within the scope of FASB ASC 810 because these financial guaranties relate to Note 9,the debt obligations of governmental organizations or financing entities established by a governmental organization. The majority of the remaining policies involve transactions where the Company is not deemed to currently have control over the FG VIEs’ most significant activities. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company identified 60 and 68 policies, respectively, that contain provisions and experienced events that may trigger consolidation.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The Company holds variable interests in VIEs which are not consolidated, as the Company is not the primary beneficiary. As of March 31, 2024, the Company’s maximum exposure to losses relating to these VIEs was $395 million.

9.    Fair Value Measurement
 
The FG VIEs issued securities collateralized byCompany carries a significant portion of its assets and liabilities at fair value. Fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date (i.e., exit or transfer price). The price represents the price available in the principal market for the asset or liability. If there is no principal market, then the price is based on a hypothetical market that maximizes the value received for an asset or minimizes the amount paid for a liability (i.e., the most advantageous market).
Fair value is based on quoted market prices, where available. If listed prices or quotes are not available, fair value is based on either (i) internally developed models that primarily use, as inputs, market-based or independently sourced market parameters (including, but not limited to, yield curves, interest rates, and debt prices) or (ii) discounted cash flows using a third party’s proprietary pricing models. In addition to market information, when applicable, the models also incorporate transaction details, such as the instrument’s maturity and contractual features that reduce the Company’s credit exposure (e.g., collateral rights).

Valuation adjustments may be made to ensure that financial instruments are recorded at fair value. These adjustments include amounts to reflect counterparty credit quality, the Company’s creditworthiness and constraints on liquidity. As markets and products develop and the pricing transparency for certain products changes, the Company may refine its methodologies and assumptions. During first lienquarter 2024, no changes were made to the Company’s valuation models that had (or are expected to have) a material impact on the Company’s condensed consolidated balance sheets or statements of operations and second lien RMBS as well as loans and receivables. comprehensive income.
The lowest level inputCompany’s valuation methods produce fair values that is significantmay not be indicative of net realizable value or future fair values. The use of different methodologies or assumptions to determine fair value of certain financial instruments could result in a materially different estimate of fair value at the reporting date.
The categorization within the fair value measurementhierarchy is determined based on whether the inputs to valuation techniques used to measure fair value are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect Company estimates of these assetsmarket assumptions. The fair value hierarchy prioritizes model inputs into three broad levels, with Level 1 being the highest and liabilitiesLevel 3 the lowest. The categorization, of an asset or liability, within the hierarchy is based on the lowest level of significant input to its valuation.

Level 1—Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets. The Company generally defines an active market as a market in which trading occurs at significant volumes. Active markets generally are more liquid and have a lower bid-ask spread than an inactive market.
Level 2—Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and observable inputs other than quoted prices, such as interest rates or yield curves and other inputs derived from or corroborated by observable market inputs.
Level 3—Model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable. Financial instruments are considered Level 3 when their values are (i) determined using pricing models, discounted cash flow methodologies or similar techniques and (ii) at least one significant model assumption or input is unobservable. Level 3 financial instruments also include those for which the determination of fair value requires significant management judgment or estimation.

There was a Level 3 input (i.e., unobservable), therefore management classified them astransfer of securities into Level 3 in the investment portfolio and in CIVs due to changes in observability of pricing inputs in first quarter 2024. There were no other transfers from or into Level 3 during the periods presented.
46

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Carried at Fair Value
Fixed-Maturity Securities

The fair value hierarchy. Pricesof fixed-maturity securities is generally based on prices received from third-party pricing services or alternative pricing sources that provide reasonable levels of price transparency. The pricing services prepare estimates of fair value using their pricing models, which take into account: benchmark yields, reported trades, broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two-sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers, reference data, industry and economic events and sector groupings. Additional valuation factors that can be taken into account are generally determinednominal spreads and liquidity adjustments. The pricing services evaluate each asset class based on relevant market and credit information, perceived market movements, and sector news.

In many cases, benchmark yields have proven to be more reliable indicators of the market for a security, as compared to reported trades for infrequently traded securities and distressed transactions. The extent of the use of each input is dependent on the asset class and the market conditions. The valuation of fixed-maturity securities is more subjective when markets are less liquid due to the lack of market-based inputs.
    As of March 31, 2024, the Company used models to price 186 securities. All Level 3 securities were priced with the assistance of an independent third-party,third parties. The pricing is based on a discounted cash flow approach.

approach using the third party’s proprietary pricing models. The models to price the FG VIEs’ liabilities used, where appropriate,use inputs such as estimatedprojected prepayment speeds; market values of the assets that collateralize the securities;severity assumptions; recovery lag assumptions; estimated default rates (determined based on the basis of an analysis of collateral attributes, historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); yields implied by market prices for similar securities; househome price depreciation/appreciationappreciation/depreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecastsforecasts; and for those liabilities insured by the Company, the benefit from the Company’s insurance policy guaranteeing the timely payment of principal and interest, taking into account the Company’s own credit risk.recent trading activity. The third-party also utilizes an internal model to determine an appropriate yield at whichused to discount the projected cash flows is determined by reviewing various attributes of the security by factoringincluding collateral type, weighted average life, sensitivity to losses, vintage, and convexity, in collateral types, weighted-average lives, and other structural attributes specific to the security being priced. The expected yield is further calibrated by utilizing algorithms designed to aggregateconjunction with market color, received by the third-party,data on comparable bonds.

The fair value of the Company’s FG VIE assets is generally sensitive to changes related to estimated prepayment speeds; estimated default rates (determined on the basis of an analysis of collateral attributes such as: historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); yields implied by market prices for similar securities; and house price depreciation/appreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecasts. Significant changes to some of these inputs could materially change the market value of the FG VIE’s assets and the implied collateral losses within the transaction. In general, the fair value of the FG VIE asset is most sensitive to changes in the projected collateral losses, where an increase in collateral losses typically leads to a decrease in the fair value of FG VIE assets, while a decrease in collateral losses typically leads to an increase in the fair value of FG VIE assets.
The fair value of the Company’s FG VIE liabilities is generally sensitive to the various model inputs described above. In addition, the Company’s FG VIE liabilities with recourse are also sensitive to changes in the Company’s implied credit worthiness.securities. Significant changes to any of these inputs could have materially changechanged the expected timing of expected lossescash flows within the insured transactionthese securities which is a significant factor in determining the implied benefit from the Company’s insurance policy guaranteeing the timely payment of principal and interest for the tranches of debt issued by the FG VIE that is insured by the Company. In general, extending the timing of expected loss payments by the Company into the future typically leads to a decrease in the value of the Company’s insurance and a decrease incould have significantly affected the fair value of the Company’s FG VIE liabilities with recourse, while asecurities.


shortening of the timing of expected loss payments by the Company typically leads to an increase in the value of the Company’s insurance and an increase in the fair value of the Company’s FG VIE liabilities with recourse.Short-Term Investments
 
Not Carried at Fair ValueShort-term investments that are traded in active markets are classified as Level 1 as their value is based on quoted market prices. Securities such as discount notes are classified as Level 2 because these securities are typically not actively traded due to their approaching maturity and, as such, their cost approximates fair value.

Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
As of March 31, 2024
(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered) - financial guaranty insurance$188 
Contra-paid, net22 
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net294 
Loss and LAE reserve - financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance(301)
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value)$203 
For
32

Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
    The following table provides a schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed. The amount and timing of actual loss and LAE may differ from the estimates shown below due to factors such as accelerations, commutations, changes in expected lives and updates to loss estimates. This table excludes amounts related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.

Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
 As of March 31, 2024
 (in millions)
2024 (April 1 - June 30)$
2024 (July 1 - September 30)
2024 (October 1 - December 31)
Subtotal 202410 
202512 
202615 
202716 
202814 
2029-203367 
2034-203847 
2039-204311 
After 204311 
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value)203 
Future accretion(18)
Total expected future loss and LAE$185 
The following table presents the loss and LAE (benefit) reported in the condensed consolidated statements of operations by sector for insurance contracts.

Loss and LAE (Benefit) by Sector
 First Quarter
Sector20242023
(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$(2)$(4)
Non-U.S. public finance— — 
Public finance(2)(4)
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS$$
Other structured finance(1)
Structured finance
Loss and LAE (benefit)$(1)$

33

Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The following tables provide information on financial guaranty insurance contracts that are acquired in a business combination, the Company measures each contract at fair value on the datecategorized as BIG.

Financial Guaranty Insurance
BIG Transaction Loss Summary
As of acquisition, and then follows insurance accounting guidance on a recurring basis thereafter.  On a quarterly basis, the Company also discloses the fair value of its outstanding financial guaranty insurance contracts.  In both cases, fair value is based on management’s estimate of what a similarly rated financial guaranty insurance company would demand to acquire the Company’s in-force book of financial guaranty insurance business. It is based on a variety of factors that may include pricing assumptions management has observed for portfolio transfers, commutations, and acquisitions that have occurred in the financial guaranty market, as well as prices observed in the credit derivative market with an adjustment for illiquidity so that the terms would be similar to a financial guaranty insurance contract, and includes adjustments to the carrying value of unearned premium reserve for stressed losses, ceding commissions and return on capital. The significant inputs were not readily observable. The Company accordingly classified this fair value measurement as Level 3.March 31, 2024

Long-Term Debt
 GrossNet Total BIG
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIG
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)91 12 109 212 212 
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)9.415.76.99.79.7
Outstanding exposure:    
Par$2,362 $977 $1,817 $5,156 $5,141 
Interest1,098 893 657 2,648 2,644 
Total (2)$3,460 $1,870 $2,474 $7,804 $7,785 
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$171 $187 $1,472 $1,830 $1,820 
Potential recoveries (3)(363)(77)(1,219)(1,659)(1,650)
Subtotal(192)110 253 171 170 
Discount53 (23)(12)18 18 
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)$(139)$87 $241 $189 $188 
Deferred premium revenue$96 $62 $136 $294 $294 
Reserves (salvage)$(175)$45 $137 $$
 
The Company’s long-term debt, excluding notes payable, is valued by broker-dealers using third party independent pricing sources and standard market conventions. The market conventions utilize market quotations, market transactions for the Company’s comparable instruments, and
34

Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to a lesser extent, similar instruments in the broader insurance industry. The fair value measurement was classified as Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy.Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Financial Guaranty Insurance
The fair value of the notes payable was determined by calculating the present value of the expected cash flows. The fair value measurement was classified as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy.BIG Transaction Loss Summary

Other Invested Assets
As of December 31, 2016, other invested assets not carried at fair value consisted primarily of an investment in a guaranteed investment contract. The fair value2023
 GrossNet Total BIG
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIG
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)95 13 109 217 217 
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)9.615.97.59.910.0
Outstanding exposure: 
Par$2,400 $979 $2,019 $5,398 $5,383 
Interest1,126 896 818 2,840 2,836 
Total (2)$3,526 $1,875 $2,837 $8,238 $8,219 
Expected cash outflows (inflows)$176 $187 $1,585 $1,948 $1,938 
Potential recoveries (3)(376)(78)(1,214)(1,668)(1,659)
Subtotal(200)109 371 280 279 
Discount56 (22)(53)(19)(19)
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)$(144)$87 $318 $261 $260 
Deferred premium revenue$100 $63 $142 $305 $305 
Reserves (salvage)$(181)$45 $209 $73 $72 
____________________
(1)    A risk represents the aggregate of the guaranteedfinancial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.
(2)Includes amounts related to FG VIEs.
(3)Represents expected inflows from future payments by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment contract approximated its carrying value duegrade credits, related mainly to its short term natureexposures that were previously BIG and was classified as Level 2for which claims have been paid in the fair value hierarchy.past.

Other Assets and Other Liabilities
The Company’s other assets and other liabilities consist predominantly of accrued interest, receivables6.    Contracts Accounted for securities sold and payables for securities purchased, the carrying values of which approximate fair value.


Financial Instruments Carried at Fair Valueas Credit Derivatives
 
Amounts recorded at fair value in the Company’s financial statements are presented in the tables below.
Fair Value Hierarchy of Financial Instruments Carried at Fair Value
As of September 30, 2017
   Fair Value Hierarchy
 Fair Value Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
 (in millions)
Assets: 
  
  
  
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: 
  
  
  
Fixed-maturity securities 
  
  
  
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$5,705
 $
 $5,623
 $82
U.S. government and agencies270
 
 270
 
Corporate securities1,976
 
 1,910
 66
Mortgage-backed securities: 
      
RMBS881
 
 535
 346
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)562
 
 562
 
Asset-backed securities852
 
 80
 772
Foreign government securities300
 
 300
 
Total fixed-maturity securities10,546


 9,280
 1,266
Short-term investments949
 629
 320
 
Other invested assets (1)7
 
 0
 7
Credit derivative assets3
 
 
 3
FG VIEs’ assets, at fair value707
 
 
 707
Other assets117
 24
 35
 58
Total assets carried at fair value$12,329
 $653
 $9,635
 $2,041
Liabilities: 
      
Credit derivative liabilities$305
 $
 $
 $305
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse, at fair value657
 
 
 657
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse, at fair value111
 
 
 111
Total liabilities carried at fair value$1,073
 $
 $
 $1,073

Fair Value Hierarchy of Financial Instruments Carried at Fair Value
As of December 31, 2016
   Fair Value Hierarchy
 Fair Value Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
 (in millions)
Assets: 
  
  
  
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: 
  
  
  
Fixed-maturity securities 
  
  
  
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$5,432
 $
 $5,393
 $39
U.S. government and agencies440
 
 440
 
Corporate securities1,613
 
 1,553
 60
Mortgage-backed securities: 
  
  
  
RMBS987
 
 622
 365
CMBS583
 
 583
 
Asset-backed securities945
 
 140
 805
Foreign government securities233
 
 233
 
Total fixed-maturity securities10,233
 
 8,964
 1,269
Short-term investments590
 319
 271
 
Other invested assets (1)8
 
 0
 8
Credit derivative assets13
 
 
 13
FG VIEs’ assets, at fair value876
 
 
 876
Other assets114
 24
 28
 62
Total assets carried at fair value$11,834
 $343
 $9,263
 $2,228
Liabilities: 
  
  
  
Credit derivative liabilities$402
 $
 $
 $402
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse, at fair value807
 
 
 807
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse, at fair value151
 
 
 151
Total liabilities carried at fair value$1,360
 $
 $
 $1,360
____________________
(1)Excluded from the table above are investment funds of $47 million and $48 million as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively, measured using NAV per share. Includes Level 3 mortgage loans that are recorded at fair value on a non-recurring basis.


Changes in Level 3 Fair Value Measurements
The table below presents a roll forward of the Company’s Level 3 financial instruments carried at fair value on a recurring basis during Third Quarter 2017this note relate only to contracts accounted for as derivatives, which are primarily CDS, and 2016 and Nine Months 2017 and 2016. 

Fair Value Level 3 Rollforward
Recurring Basis
Third Quarter 2017

 Fixed-Maturity Securities           
 Obligations
of State and
Political
Subdivisions
 Corporate Securities RMBS Asset-
Backed
Securities
 FG VIEs’
Assets at
Fair
Value
 
Other
(7)
 Credit
Derivative
Asset
(Liability),
net (5)
 FG VIEs' Liabilities
with
Recourse,
at Fair Value
 FG VIEs’ Liabilities
without
Recourse,
at Fair
Value
 
 (in millions)
Fair value as of
June 30, 2017
$91
 $63
 $357
 $656
 
$757
 
$65
 
$(361) $(689) $(131) 
Total pretax realized and unrealized gains/(losses) recorded in: (1)        
  
  
  
  
  
Net income (loss)(8)(2)1
(2)5
(2)15
(2)4
(3)(4)(4)58
(6)(3)(3)(1)(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)(1) 2
 (1) 2
 

 
0
 

 

 

 
Purchases
 
 13
 106
 

 

 

 

 

 
Settlements
 
 (28) (7) (36) 
 
1
 
35
 
3
 
FV VIE
   deconsolidations

 
 
 
 (18) 
 
 0
 18
 
Transfers into Level 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair value as of
September 30, 2017
$82
 $66
 $346
 $772
 
$707
 
$61
 
$(302) $(657) $(111) 
Change in unrealized gains/(losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2017$(1) $2
 $0
 $2
 $10
(3)$(4)(4)$51
(6)$(3)(3)$(1)(3)



Fair Value Level 3 Rollforward
Recurring Basis
Third Quarter 2016
 Fixed-Maturity Securities           
 Obligations
of State and
Political
Subdivisions
 Corporate Securities RMBS Asset-
Backed
Securities
 FG VIEs’
Assets at
Fair
Value
 
Other
(7)
 Credit
Derivative
Asset
(Liability),
net (5)
 FG VIEs' Liabilities
with
Recourse,
at Fair
Value
 FG VIEs’ Liabilities
without
Recourse,
at Fair Value
 
 (in millions)
Fair value as of
June 30, 2016
$41
 $58
 $349
 $564
 $814
 
$38
 
$(396) $(790) $(115) 
CIFG Acquisition1
 
 20
 36
 
 
 (67) 
 
 
Total pretax realized and unrealized gains/(losses) recorded in: (1)          
  
  
  
  
Net income (loss)1
(2)0
(2)3
(2)9
(2)20
(3)(23)(4)21
(6)(21)(3)(18)(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)0
 0
 2
 47
 
 
0
 

 

 

 
Purchases
 
 24
 53
 
 

 

 

 

 
Settlements0
 
 (15) (40) (34) 
 
(39) 
33
 
3
 
FG VIE consolidations
 
 
 
 97
 
 
 (54) (43) 
FG VIE
  deconsolidations

 
 
 
 (20) 
 
 
 20
 
Transfers into Level 3
 
 
 22
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair value as of
September 30, 2016
$43
 $58
 $383
 $691
 $877
 $15
 $(481) $(832) $(153) 
Change in unrealized gains/(losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2016$0
 $0
 $1
 $47
 $29
(3)$(23)(4)$(5)(6)$(18)(3)$(17)(3)


Fair Value Level 3 Rollforward
Recurring Basis
Nine Months 2017

 Fixed-Maturity Securities           
 Obligations
of State and
Political
Subdivisions
 Corporate Securities RMBS Asset-
Backed
Securities
 FG VIEs’
Assets at
Fair
Value
 
Other
(7)
 Credit
Derivative
Asset
(Liability),
net (5)
 FG VIEs' Liabilities
with
Recourse,
at Fair
Value
 FG VIEs’ Liabilities
without
Recourse,
at Fair
Value
 
 (in millions)
Fair value as of
December 31, 2016
$39
 $60
 $365
 $805
 $876
 $65
 $(389) $(807) $(151) 
MBIA UK Acquisition
 
 
 7
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total pretax realized and unrealized gains/(losses) recorded in: (1)        
  
  
  
  
  
Net income (loss)(6)(2)4
(2)23
(2)100
(2)32
(3)(4)(4)106
(6)(14)(3)(4)(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)(4) 2
 25
 60
 

 
0
 

 

 

 
Purchases
 
 42
 162
 

 

 

 

 

 
Settlements(2) 
 (109) (362) (117) 
 
(19) 
113
 
11
 
FG VIE consolidations
 
 
 
 
21
 

 

 
0
 (21) 
FG VIE
  deconsolidations

 
 
 
 (105) 
 
 51
 54
 
Transfers into Level 355
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair value as of
September 30, 2017
$82
 $66
 $346
 $772
 
$707
 
$61
 
$(302) $(657) $(111) 
Change in unrealized gains/(losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2017$(4) $2
 $25
 $126
 $50
(3)$(4)(4)$63
(6)$(12)(3)$(4)(3)


Fair Value Level 3 Rollforward
Recurring Basis
Nine Months 2016

 Fixed-Maturity Securities             
 Obligations
of State and
Political
Subdivisions
 Corporate Securities RMBS Asset-
Backed
Securities
 Short-Term Investments FG VIEs’
Assets at
Fair
Value
 
Other
(7)
 Credit
Derivative
Asset
(Liability),
net (5)
 FG VIEs' Liabilities
with
Recourse,
at Fair
Value
 FG VIEs’ Liabilities
without
Recourse,
at Fair
Value
 
 (in millions)
Fair value as of
December 31, 2015
$8
 $71
 $348
 $657
 $60
 $1,261
 $65
 $(365) $(1,225) $(124) 
CIFG Acquisition1
 
 20
 36
 0
 
 
 (67) 
 
 
Total pretax realized and unrealized gains/(losses) recorded in: (1)            
  
  
  
  
Net income (loss)1
(2)4
(2)5
(2)20
(2)0
(2)129
(3)(50)(4)24
(6)(112)(3)(14)(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)1
 (17) 0
 37
 0
 
 
0
 

 

 

 
Purchases33
 
 64
 53
 
 
 

 

 

 

 
Settlements(1) 
 (54) (134) (60) (590) 
 
(73) 
559
 
8
 
FG VIE consolidations
 
 
 
 
 97
 
 
 (54) (43) 
FG VIE deconsolidations
 
 0
 
 
 (20) 
 
 
 20
 
Transfers into Level 3
 
 
 22
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair value as of
September 30, 2016
$43
 $58
 $383
 $691
 $0
 $877
 $15
 $(481) $(832) $(153) 
Change in unrealized gains/(losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2016$1
 $(17) $(1) $37
 $0
 $44
(3)$(50)(4)$(104)(6)$1
(3)$(14)(3)
 ____________________
(1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) from changes in values of Level 3 financial instruments represent gains (losses) from changes in values of those financial instruments only for the periods in which the instruments were classified as Level 3.

(2)Included in net realized investment gains (losses) and net investment income.

(3)Included in fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs.

(4)Recorded in fair value gains (losses) on CCS, net realized investment gains (losses), net investment income and other income.

(5)Represents net position of credit derivatives. The consolidated balance sheet presents gross assets and liabilities based on net counterparty exposure.

(6)Reported in net change in fair value of credit derivatives and other income.

(7)Includes CCS and other invested assets.



Level 3 Fair Value Disclosures
Quantitative Information About Level 3 Fair Value Inputs
At September 30, 2017

Financial Instrument Description (1) Fair Value at
September 30, 2017
(in millions)
 Significant Unobservable Inputs Range Weighted Average as a Percentage of Current Par Outstanding
Assets (2):  
      
Fixed-maturity securities:  
        
Obligations of state and political subdivisions $82
 Yield 4.3%-39.0% 15.9%
           
Corporate securities 66
 Yield 20.8%  
           
RMBS 346
 CPR 1.2%-17.4% 6.0%
  CDR 2.0%-8.5% 6.1%
  Loss severity 40.0%-100.0% 78.5%
  Yield 3.8%-9.0% 5.7%
Asset-backed securities:          
Triple-X life insurance transactions 609
 Yield 6.1%-6.4% 6.3%
           
Collateralized loan obligations (CLO) /TruPS 104
 Yield 2.5%-4.5% 3.3%
           
Others 59
 Yield 10.7%  
           
FG VIEs’ assets, at fair value 707
 CPR 3.5%-13.0% 9.3%
  CDR 1.6%-22.2% 4.3%
  Loss severity 55.0%-100.0% 78.4%
  Yield 3.6%-14.9% 6.5%
           
Other assets 58
 Implied Yield 4.8%-5.5% 5.1%
  Term (years) 10 years  
Liabilities:  
        
Credit derivative liabilities, net (302) Year 1 loss estimates 0.0%-59.0% 3.4%
  Hedge cost (in bps) 20.3
-142.5 54.0
  Bank profit (in bps) 3.8
-825.0 102.9
  Internal floor (in bps) 7.0
-100.0 24.9
  Internal credit rating AAA
-CCC AA-
           
FG VIEs’ liabilities, at fair value (768) CPR 3.5%-13.0% 9.3%
  CDR 1.6%-22.2% 4.3%
  Loss severity 55.0%-100.0% 78.4%
  Yield 3.1%-14.9% 4.9%
___________________
(1)Discounted cash flow is used as valuation technique for all financial instruments.

(2)Excludes several investments recorded in other invested assets with fair value of $7 million.

Quantitative Information About Level 3 Fair Value Inputs
At December 31, 2016

Financial Instrument Description (1) Fair Value at
December 31, 2016
(in millions)
 Significant Unobservable Inputs Range Weighted Average as a Percentage of Current Par Outstanding
Assets (2):  
        
Fixed-maturity securities:  
        
Obligations of state and political subdivisions $39
 Yield 4.3%-22.8% 11.1%
           
Corporate securities 60
 Yield 20.1%  
           
RMBS 365
 CPR 1.6%-17.0% 4.6%
  CDR 1.5%-10.1% 6.7%
  Loss severity 30.0%-100.0% 77.8%
  Yield 3.3%-9.7% 6.0%
Asset-backed securities:          
Triple-X life insurance transactions 425
 Yield 5.7%-6.0% 5.8%
           
Collateralized debt obligations (CDO) 332
 Yield 10.0%  
           
CLO/TruPS 19
 Yield 1.5%-4.8% 3.1%
           
Others 29
 Yield 7.2%  
           
FG VIEs’ assets, at fair value 876
 CPR 3.5%-12.0% 7.8%
  CDR 2.5%-21.6% 5.7%
  Loss severity 35.0%-100.0% 78.6%
  Yield 2.9%-20.0% 6.5%
           
Other assets 62
 Implied Yield 4.5%-5.1% 4.8%
  Term (years) 10 years  
Liabilities:  
        
Credit derivative liabilities, net (389) Year 1 loss estimates 0.0%-38.0% 1.3%
  Hedge cost (in bps) 7.2
-118.1 24.5
  Bank profit (in bps) 3.8
-825.0 61.8
  Internal floor (in bps) 7.0
-100.0 13.9
  Internal credit rating AAA
-CCC AA+
           
FG VIEs’ liabilities, at fair value (958) CPR 3.5%-12.0% 7.8%
  CDR 2.5%-21.6% 5.7%
  Loss severity 35.0%-100.0% 78.6%
  Yield 2.4%-20.0% 5.0%
____________________
(1)Discounted cash flow is used as valuation technique for all financial instruments.

(2)Excludes several investments recorded in other invested assets with fair value of $8 million.



The carrying amount and estimated fair value of the Company’s financial instruments are presented in the following table. 

Fair Value of Financial Instruments
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 
Carrying
Amount
 
Estimated
Fair Value
 
Carrying
Amount
 
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Assets: 
  
  
  
Fixed-maturity securities$10,546
 $10,546
 $10,233
 $10,233
Short-term investments949
 949
 590
 590
Other invested assets62
 64
 146
 147
Credit derivative assets3
 3
 13
 13
FG VIEs’ assets, at fair value707
 707
 876
 876
Other assets291
 291
 205
 205
Liabilities: 
  
  
  
Financial guaranty insurance contracts (1)3,402
 8,311
 3,483
 8,738
Long-term debt1,292
 1,636
 1,306
 1,546
Credit derivative liabilities305
 305
 402
 402
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse, at fair value657
 657
 807
 807
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse, at fair value111
 111
 151
 151
Other liabilities220
 220
 12
 12
____________________
(1)Carrying amount includes the assets and liabilities related to financial guaranty insurance contract premiums, losses, and salvage and subrogation and other recoverables net of reinsurance. 


8.Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives
The Company has a portfolio of financial guaranty contracts that meet the definition of a derivative in accordance with GAAP (primarily CDS). The credit derivative portfolio also includesinclude interest rate swaps.
 
Credit derivative transactionsThe Company’s credit derivatives are generally governed by ISDAInternational Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. documentation and have differentcertain characteristics that differ from financial guaranty insurance contracts. For example, the Company’s control rights with respect to a reference obligation under a credit derivativeCDS may be more limited than when the Company issues a financial guaranty insurance contract. In addition, there are more circumstances under which the Company may be obligated to make payments. Similar to a financial guaranty insurance contract, the Company would be obligated to pay if the obligor failed to make a scheduled payment of principal or interest in full. However,In certain credit derivative transactions, the Company may also be requiredspecifically agreed to pay if the obligor becomeswere to become bankrupt or if the reference obligation were restructured if, after negotiation, those credit events are specifiedrestructured. Furthermore, in the documentation for thecertain credit derivative transactions. Furthermore,transactions, the Company may be required to make a payment due to an event that is unrelated to the performance of the obligation referenced in the credit derivative. If events of default or termination events specified in the credit derivative documentation were to occur, the non-defaulting or the non-affected party, which may be either the Company or the counterparty, depending upon the circumstances, may decide to terminate a credit derivative prior to maturity. In that case, the Company may be required to make a termination payment to its swap counterparty upon such termination. Absent such an event of default or termination event, the Company may not unilaterally terminate a CDScredit derivative contract; however, the Company on occasion has mutually agreed with various counterparties to terminate certain CDS transactions.


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Credit Derivative Net Par OutstandingAssured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The components of the Company’s credit derivative net par outstanding by Sector
sector are presented in the table below. The estimated remaining weighted average life of credit derivatives was 10.210.9 years at September 30, 2017and 5.311.1 years atas of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016. The components of the Company’s credit derivative net par outstanding are presented below.2023, respectively.

Credit Derivatives (1)
  As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
Asset Type 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
Weighted
Average
Credit
Rating
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
Weighted
Average
Credit
Rating
  (dollars in millions)
Pooled corporate obligations:  
    
  
CLO/collateralized bond obligations $199
 AAA $2,022
 AAA
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate 547
 AAA 7,224
 AAA
TruPS CDOs 898
 A- 1,179
 BBB+
Total pooled corporate obligations 1,644
 AA 10,425
 AAA
U.S. RMBS 1,003
 AA 1,142
 AA-
Pooled infrastructure 1,553
 AAA 1,513
 AAA
Infrastructure finance 847
 BBB+ 1,021
 BBB+
Other(1) 2,488
 A- 2,896
 A
Total $7,535
 AA- $16,997
 AA+
 As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
SectorNet Par
Outstanding
Net Fair Value Asset (Liability)Net Par
Outstanding
Net Fair Value Asset (Liability)
 (in millions)
U.S. public finance$1,077 $(14)$1,149 $(15)
Non-U.S. public finance1,507 (19)1,522 (20)
U.S. structured finance223 (5)322 (13)
Non-U.S. structured finance614 (1)615 (2)
Total$3,421 $(39)$3,608 $(50)
____________________
(1)This comprises numerous transactions across various asset classes, such as commercial receivables, international RMBS, regulated utilities and consumer receivables.

(1)    Expected loss to be paid was $1 million and $2 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

Except for TruPS CDOs, the Company’s exposure to pooled corporate obligations is highly diversified in terms of obligors and industries. Most pooled corporate transactions are structured to limit exposure to any given obligor and industry. A large portion of the Company’s pooled corporate exposure consists of CLO or synthetic pooled corporate obligations. Most of these CLOs have an average obligor size of less than 1% of the total transaction and typically restrict the maximum exposure to any one industry to approximately 10%. The Company’s exposure also benefits from embedded credit enhancement in the transactions which allows a transaction to sustain a certain level of losses in the underlying collateral, further insulating the Company from industry specific concentrations of credit risk on these transactions.
The Company’s TruPS CDO asset pools are generally less diversified by obligors and industries than the typical CLO asset pool. Also, the underlying collateral in TruPS CDOs consists primarily of subordinated debt instruments such as TruPS issued by bank holding companies and similar instruments issued by insurance companies, real estate investment trusts and other real estate related issuers while CLOs typically contain primarily senior secured obligations. However, to mitigate these risks TruPS CDOs were typically structured with higher levels of embedded credit enhancement than typical CLOs.

Distribution of Credit Derivative Net Par Outstanding by Internal Rating
  As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
Ratings 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % of Total 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % of Total
  (dollars in millions)
AAA $2,956
 39.3% $10,967
 64.6%
AA 1,247
 16.5
 2,167
 12.7
A 1,628
 21.6
 1,499
 8.8
BBB 1,008
 13.4
 1,391
 8.2
BIG 696
 9.2
 973
 5.7
Credit derivative net par outstanding $7,535
 100.0% $16,997
 100.0%



Fair Value ofGains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
Net Change in Fair Value of Credit Derivative Gain (Loss)
First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements$(1)$
Net unrealized gains (losses)11 14 
Fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives$10 $15 
    
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Realized gains on credit derivatives$4
 $11
 $15
 $39
Net credit derivative losses (paid and payable) recovered and recoverable and other settlements(5) 4
 4
 8
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements(1) 15
 19
 47
Net unrealized gains (losses):       
Pooled corporate obligations35
 3
 41
 (37)
U.S. RMBS11
 (12) 24
 0
Pooled infrastructure(1) 4
 4
 10
Infrastructure finance0
 1
 2
 0
Other14
 10
 16
 4
Net unrealized gains (losses)59
 6
 87
 (23)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives$58
 $21
 $106
 $24

Terminations and Settlements
of Direct Credit Derivative Contracts

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Net par of terminated credit derivative contracts$40
 $1,071
 $273
 $3,507
Realized gains on credit derivatives0
 3
 0
 11
Net credit derivative losses (paid and payable) recovered and recoverable and other settlements(3) 
 (15) 
Net unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives8
 11
 24
 81

During Third Quarter 2017, unrealized fair value gains were generated primarily as a result of CDS terminations in the Other sector, run-off of net par outstanding, and tighter implied net spreads. The tighter implied net spreads were primarily a result of price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company’s CDS and the increased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection increased during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM, which management refers to as the CDS spread on AGC and AGM, increased, the implied net spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions decreased.

During Nine Months 2017, unrealized fair value gains were generated primarily as a result of CDS terminations, run-off of net par outstanding, and tighter implied net spreads. The tighter implied spreads were primarily a result of price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company’s CDS and the increased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection increased during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM increased, the implied net spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions decreased.

During Third Quarter 2016, unrealized fair value gains were generated primarily as a result of CDS terminations in the pooled corporate and other sectors and price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company’s CDS. This was the primary driver of the unrealized fair value gains in the pooled corporate CLO, and other sectors. The unrealized fair value gains were partially offset by unrealized losses resulting from wider implied net spreads across all sectors. The wider implied net

spreads were primarily a result of the decreased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name, particularly for the one year CDS spread, as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection decreased significantly during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM decreased, the implied spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions increased.

During Nine Months 2016, unrealized fair value losses were generated primarily in the trust preferred sector, due to wider implied net spreads. The wider implied net spreads were primarily a result of the decreased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name, particularly for the one year and five year CDS spread, as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection decreased during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM decreased, the implied spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions increased. The unrealized fair value losses were partially offset by unrealized fair value gains which resulted from the terminations of several CDS transactions during the period. The majority of the CDS transactions were terminated as a result of settlement agreements with the relevant CDS counterparties.

The impact of changes in credit spreads will vary based upon the volume, tenor, interest rates and other market conditions at the time these fair values are determined. In addition, since each transaction has unique collateral and structural terms, the underlying change in fair value of each transaction may vary considerably. The fair value of credit derivative contracts generally also reflects the change in the Company’s own credit cost based on the price to purchase credit protection on AGC and AGM.AGC. The Company determines its own credit risk primarily based on quoted CDS prices traded on the CompanyAGC at each balance sheet date.
 
CDS Spread on AGC and AGM
Quoted price of CDS contract (in basis points)
 As of March 31,
2024
As of December 31, 2023As of March 31,
2023
As of December 31, 2022
Five-year CDS spread52668363
One-year CDS spread19233126
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of June 30, 2017 As of
December 31, 2016
 As of September 30, 2016 As of
June 30, 2016
 As of
December 31, 2015
Five-year CDS spread:           
AGC190
 136
 158
 170
 265
 376
AGM190
 140
 158
 170
 265
 366
One-year CDS spread  

   

    
AGC81
 15
 35
 31
 45
 139
AGM81
 15
 29
 31
 47
 131



Fair Value of Credit DerivativesDerivative Assets (Liabilities)
and Effect of AGC and AGMCredit Spread
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Fair value of credit derivatives before effect of AGC credit spread$(56)$(76)
Plus: Effect of AGC credit spread17 26 
Net fair value of credit derivatives$(39)$(50)
Credit Spreads

 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (in millions)
Fair value of credit derivatives before effect of AGC and AGM credit spreads$(630) $(811)
Plus: Effect of AGC and AGM credit spreads328
 422
Net fair value of credit derivatives$(302) $(389)


The fair value of CDS contracts at September 30, 2017,as of March 31, 2024, before considering the implications ofbenefit applicable to AGC’s and AGM’s credit spreads,spread, is a direct result of continued widethe relatively wider credit spreads under current market conditions compared to those at the time of underwriting for certain underlying credits with longer tenor.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
7.    Investments

The majority of the investment portfolio comprises investment grade fixed-maturity securities managed by three outside managers. The Company has established investment guidelines for these investment managers regarding credit quality, exposure to a particular sector and exposure to a particular obligor within a sector.

The remainder of the investment portfolio primarily consists of (i) Loss Mitigation Securities; (ii) CVIs received in connection with the fixed income security markets2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions; (iii) equity method investments; and ratings downgrades. The asset classes that remain most affected are TruPS(iv) short-term investments. Equity method investments primarily consist of the investment in Sound Point and pooled corporatefund investments across a variety of strategies.

Investment Portfolio
Carrying Value
As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale (1):
Externally managed$5,383 $5,372 
Loss Mitigation Securities464 459 
Other244 476 
Fixed-maturity securities, trading - Puerto Rico, CVIs (2)272 318 
Short-term investments1,649 1,661 
Other invested assets:
Equity method investments:
Sound Point417 429 
Alternative investments (3)451 394 
Other
Total (4)$8,887 $9,115 
____________________
(1)    9.5% and 9.2% of fixed-maturity securities, available for sale, were rated BIG or not rated as well as 2005-2007 vintages of Alt-A, Option ARM and subprime RMBS transactions. The mark to market benefit between September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016, resulted2023, respectively. BIG rated securities consisted primarily fromof Loss Mitigation Securities.
(2)    These securities are not rated.
(3)     Excludes certain investments in funds that are consolidated and accounted for as CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.
(4)     The aggregate carrying value of the Company’s investments in Sound Point, and Sound Point managed funds was $636 million and $631 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
The Company has agreed to invest $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval. The fair value of alternative investments as of March 31, 2024 was $803 million. The Company had $743 million in unfunded commitments to alternative investments (of which $324 million is committed to specific funds). See Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation for a description of the Sound Point Transaction.

Of the $1.5 billion mentioned above, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment subsidiary, AGAS, are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $162 million for a total of $912 million as of March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to Sound Point and AHP funds were $772 million (of which $574 million was funded with a net asset value (NAV) of $632 million). This capital was committed to several CDS terminationsfunds, each dedicated to a single strategy, including CLOs, asset-based/special finance and healthcare structured capital. As of March 31, 2024, three of the eight funds in which AGAS invests are accounted for as CIVs. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Accrued investment income, which is reported in “other assets,” was $72 million as of March 31, 2024 and $71 million as of December 31, 2023.

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Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Security Type
As of March 31, 2024
Security TypePercent
of
Total (1)
Amortized
Cost
Allowance for Credit LossesGross
Unrealized
Gains
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
Estimated
Fair
Value
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions37 %$2,418 $(14)$27 $(100)$2,331 
U.S. government and agencies60 — (6)55 
Corporate securities (2)35 2,307 (6)10 (210)2,101 
Mortgage-backed securities (3): 
RMBS490 (22)(69)402 
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)202 — — (6)196 
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs442 — (4)439 
Other535 (25)(28)483 
Non-U.S. government securities99 — — (15)84 
Total available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities100 %$6,553 $(67)$43 $(438)$6,091 

Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Security Type
As of December 31, 2023
Security TypePercent
of
Total (1)
Amortized
Cost
Allowance for Credit LossesGross
Unrealized
Gains
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
Estimated
Fair
Value
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions41 %$2,733 $(13)$33 $(92)$2,661 
U.S. government and agencies65 — (6)60 
Corporate securities (2)34 2,327 (6)17 (197)2,141 
Mortgage-backed securities (3):    
RMBS428 (21)(68)342 
CMBS157 — — (6)151 
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs456 — (7)450 
Other465 (37)— (26)402 
Non-U.S. government securities115 — — (15)100 
Total available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities100 %$6,746 $(77)$55 $(417)$6,307 
____________________
(1)Based on amortized cost.
(2)Includes securities issued by taxable universities and hospitals.
(3)U.S. government-agency obligations were approximately 56% and 42% of mortgage-backed securities as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, based on fair value.

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Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities for Which a narrowingCredit Loss was Not Recorded
As of March 31, 2024
 Less than 12 months12 months or moreTotal
 Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$603 $(3)$1,250 $(96)$1,853 $(99)
U.S. government and agencies— 33 (6)40 (6)
Corporate securities164 (2)1,384 (168)1,548 (170)
Mortgage-backed securities: 
RMBS34 — 138 (11)172 (11)
CMBS— 127 (6)131 (6)
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs— 222 (2)231 (2)
Other— 26 (1)35 (1)
Non-U.S. government securities— — 79 (15)79 (15)
Total$830 $(5)$3,259 $(305)$4,089 $(310)
Number of securities (1) 319  1,311  1,609 
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities for Which a Credit Loss was Not Recorded
As of December 31, 2023
 Less than 12 months12 months or moreTotal
 Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
Fair
Value
Gross Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$641 $(4)$931 $(87)$1,572 $(91)
U.S. government and agencies— — 33 (6)33 (6)
Corporate securities72 (1)1,426 (152)1,498 (153)
Mortgage-backed securities:    
RMBS27 (1)124 (8)151 (9)
CMBS— 148 (6)151 (6)
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs22 (1)379 (6)401 (7)
Other— 26 (1)27 (1)
Non-U.S. government securities— — 95 (15)95 (15)
Total$766 $(7)$3,162 $(281)$3,928 $(288)
Number of securities (1) 274  1,266  1,525 
___________________
(1)    The number of securities does not add across because lots consisting of the same securities have been purchased at different times and appear in both categories above (i.e., less than 12 months and 12 months or more). If a security appears in both categories, it is counted only once in the total column.

The Company considered the credit spreadsquality, cash flows, interest rate movements, ability to hold a security to recovery and intent to sell a security in determining whether a security had a credit loss. The Company has determined that the unrealized losses recorded as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 were primarily related to higher interest rates rather than credit quality. As of March 31, 2024, the Company's TruPSCompany did not intend to and U.S. RMBS obligations.was not required to sell investments in an unrealized loss position prior to expected recovery in value. As of March 31, 2024, of the securities in an unrealized loss position for which an allowance for credit loss was not recorded, 458 securities had unrealized losses in excess of 10% of their carrying value,
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Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
whereas as of December 31, 2023, 409 securities had unrealized losses in excess of 10% of their carrying value. The total unrealized loss for these securities was $224 million as of March 31, 2024 and $200 million as of December 31, 2023.

The amortized cost and estimated fair value of available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities by contractual maturity as of March 31, 2024 are shown below. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.
 

Distribution of Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Contractual Maturity
Management believesAs of March 31, 2024
 Amortized
Cost
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Due within one year$289 $283 
Due after one year through five years1,373 1,305 
Due after five years through 10 years1,605 1,527 
Due after 10 years2,594 2,378 
Mortgage-backed securities:  
RMBS490 402 
CMBS202 196 
Total$6,553 $6,091 

    Based on fair value, fixed-maturity securities, short-term investments and cash that are either held in trust for the benefit of third-party ceding insurers in accordance with statutory requirements, placed on deposit to fulfill state licensing requirements, or otherwise pledged or restricted, totaled $143 million as of March 31, 2024 and $234 million as of December 31, 2023. The investment portfolio also contains securities that are held in trust by certain AGL subsidiaries or are otherwise restricted for the benefit of other AGL subsidiaries in accordance with statutory and regulatory requirements with a fair value of $1,144 million and $1,154 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

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Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Income from Investments

The components of income derived from the investment portfolio are presented in the following tables.

Income from Investments
 First Quarter
 20242023
(in millions)
Investment income:
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale:
Externally managed$51 $52 
Loss Mitigation Securities
Puerto Rico, New Recovery Bonds— 
Other
Short-term investments23 13 
Investment income85 82 
Investment expenses(1)(1)
Net investment income$84 $81 
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities (1)$26 $(2)
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees:
Sound Point (2)$$— 
Funds (3)14 — 
Other
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees$24 $
____________________
(1)    Fair value gains on trading levelsecurities pertaining to securities still held as of AGC’s and AGM’s credit spreads overMarch 31, 2024 were $22 million for first quarter 2024. Fair value losses on trading securities pertaining to securities still held as of March 31, 2023 were $2 million for first quarter 2023.
(2)    Beginning in the past several years has been due tofourth quarter of 2023, equity in earnings (losses) includes the correlation between AGC’s and AGM’s risk profile and the current risk profileCompany’s share of the broader financial markets. Offsettingearnings of Sound Point, which is reported on a one-quarter lag.
(3)     Sound Point and AHP funds, and, prior to July 1 2023, AssuredIM funds.

Realized Investment Gains (Losses)

    The table below presents the benefit attributablecomponents of net realized investment gains (losses). Realized gains and losses on sales of investments are determined using the specific identification method.

Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Gross realized gains on sales of available-for-sale securities$$12 
Gross realized losses on sales of available-for-sale securities(3)(9)
Change in the allowance for credit losses and intent to sell (1)10 (5)
Net realized investment gains (losses)$$(2)
____________________
(1)    Change in allowance for credit losses for all periods was primarily related to AGC’s and AGM’s credit spread were higher credit spreads in the fixed income security markets. The higher credit spreads in the fixed income security market are dueLoss Mitigation Securities.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to the lack of liquidity in the high yield CDO, TruPS CDO, and CLO markets as well as continuing market concerns over the 2005-2007 vintages of RMBS.Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The following table presents the fair valueroll forward of allowance for the credit losses on available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities.

Roll Forward of Allowance for Credit Losses
for Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Balance, beginning of period$77 $65 
Additions (reductions) for securities for which credit losses were previously recognized(10)
Balance, end of period$67 $69 

The Company did not purchase any securities with credit deterioration during first quarter 2024 and first quarter 2023. Most of the present value of expected claim payments or recoveries (i.e. net expected lossCompany’s allowance for credit losses relates to be paid as described in Note 5) for contracts accounted for as derivatives.Loss Mitigation Securities.

Net Fair Value
8.    Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Expected LossesConsolidated Investment Vehicles
of Credit Derivatives
FG VIEs

 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (in millions)
Fair value of credit derivative asset (liability), net$(302) $(389)
Expected loss to be (paid) recovered6
 (10)


Collateral Posting for Certain Credit Derivative ContractsStructured Finance and Other FG VIEs
    
The transaction documentation for $502 million of the CDS insured by AGC requires AGC to post collateral, in some cases subject to a cap, to secure its obligation to make payments under such contracts. Eligible collateral is generally cash or U.S. government or agency securities; eligible collateral other than cash is valued at a discount to the face amount. The table below summarizes AGC’s CDS collateral posting requirements as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016.

AGC Insured CDS Collateral Posting Requirements

  As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
  (in millions)
Gross par of CDS with collateral posting requirement $502
 $690
Maximum posting requirement 469
 674
Collateral posted 18
 116

The reduction in the collateral posting requirement is primarily attributable to the termination in February 2017 by the Company of its remaining CDS contracts with one of its counterparties as to which it had a posting requirement; the CDS contracts related to approximately $183 million in gross par and $73 million of collateral posted as of December 31, 2016.

Sensitivity to Changes in Credit Spread
The following table summarizes the estimated change in fair values on the net balance of the Company’s credit derivative positions assuming immediate parallel shifts in credit spreads on AGC and AGM and on the risks that they both assume.
Effect of Changes in Credit Spread
A of September 30, 2017

Credit Spreads(1) 
Estimated Net
Fair Value
(Pre-Tax)
 
Estimated Change
in Gain/(Loss)
(Pre-Tax)
  (in millions)
100% widening in spreads $(531) $(229)
50% widening in spreads (417) (115)
25% widening in spreads (359) (57)
10% widening in spreads (325) (23)
Base Scenario (302) 
10% narrowing in spreads (279) 23
25% narrowing in spreads (245) 57
50% narrowing in spreads (188) 114
 ____________________
(1)Includes the effects of spreads on both the underlying asset classes and the Company’s own credit spread.


9.Consolidated Variable Interest Entities

Consolidated FG VIEs

The Company providesinsurance subsidiaries provide financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs. Assured Guaranty doesVIEs, but do not act as the servicer or collateral manager for any VIE obligations insured by its companies.they guarantee. The transaction structure generally provides certain financial protections to the Company.insurance subsidiaries. This financial protection can take several forms, the most common of which are overcollateralization, first loss protection (or subordination) and excess spread. In the case of overcollateralization (i.e., the principal amount of the securitized assets exceeds the principal amount of the structured finance obligations guaranteed by the Company)obligations), the structure allows defaults of the securitized assets before a default is experienced on the structured finance obligation guaranteed by the Company.insurance subsidiaries. In the case of first loss, the insurance subsidiaries’ financial guaranty insurance policy only covers a senior layer of losses experienced by multiple obligations issued by special purpose entities, includingthe VIEs. The first loss exposure with respect to the assets is either retained by the seller or sold off in the form of equity or mezzanine debt to other investors. In the case of excess spread, the financial assets contributed to special purpose entities, including VIEs generate interest income that areis in excess of the interest payments on the debt issued by the special purpose entity.VIE. Such excess spread is typically distributed through the transaction’s cash flow waterfall and may be used to create additional credit enhancement, applied to redeem debt issued by the special purpose entities, including VIEsVIE (thereby, creating additional overcollateralization), or distributed to equity or other investors in the transaction.


Assured Guaranty is    The insurance subsidiaries are not primarily liable for the debt obligations issued by the structured finance and other FG VIEs it insures(which excludes the Puerto Rico Trusts described below) they insure and would only be required to make payments on those insured debt obligations in the event that the issuer of such debt obligations defaults on any principal or interest due and only for the amount of the shortfall. AGL’s and its Subsidiaries’insurance subsidiaries’ creditors do not have any rights with regard to the collateral supporting the debt issued by the structured finance and other FG VIEs. Proceeds from sales, maturities, prepayments and interest from such underlying collateral may only be used to pay debt service on VIEstructured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities. Net fair value gains and losses on FG VIEs are expected to reverse to zero at maturity of the VIE debt, except for net premiums received and net claims paid by Assured Guaranty under the financial guaranty insurance contract. The Company’s estimate of expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs is included in Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid.

As part of the terms of its financial guaranty contracts, the Company obtainsinsurance subsidiaries obtain certain protective rights with respect to the VIE that give them additional controls over a VIE. These protective rights are triggered by the occurrence of certain events, such as failure to be in compliance with a covenant due to poor deal performance or a deterioration in a servicerservicer’s or collateral manager'smanager’s financial condition. At deal inception, the Companyinsurance subsidiaries typically isare not deemed to control athe VIE; however, once a trigger event occurs, the Company'sinsurance subsidiaries’ control of the VIE typically

increases. The Company continuously evaluates its power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of VIEs that have debt obligations insured by the Companyinsurance subsidiaries and, accordingly, where the Company isthey are obligated to absorb VIE losses or receive benefits that could potentially be significant to the VIE. The Company obtains protective rights under its insurance contracts that give the Company additional controls over a VIE if there is either deterioration of deal performance or in the financial health of the deal servicer. The Company issubsidiaries are deemed to be the control party for certain VIEs under GAAP, typically when itstheir protective rights give itthem the power to both terminate and replace the dealtransaction’s servicer or collateral manager, which are characteristics specific to the Company'sCompany’s financial guaranty contracts. If the protective rights that could make the Companyinsurance subsidiaries the control party have not been triggered, then the VIE is not consolidated. If the Company isinsurance subsidiaries are deemed to no longer to have those protective rights, the transactionVIE is deconsolidated.
Number of FG VIEs Consolidated


42

 Nine Months
 2017 2016
  
Beginning of the period, December 3132
 34
Consolidated1
 1
Deconsolidated(2) (2)
Matured
 (1)
End of the period, September 3031
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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The total unpaid principal balance for thestructured finance and other FG VIEs’ assetsliabilities that were over 90 days or more past due was approximately $102 million at September 30, 2017are guaranteed by the insurance subsidiaries are considered to be with recourse, because the insurance subsidiaries guarantee the payment of principal and $137 million at December 31, 2016.interest regardless of the performance of the related FG VIEs’ assets. The aggregate unpaidstructured finance and other FG VIEs’ liabilities that are not guaranteed by the insurance subsidiaries are considered to be without recourse, because the payment of principal and interest of these liabilities is wholly dependent on the performance of the FG VIEs’ assets was approximately $369 million greater thanassets.

The Company has elected the aggregate fair value at September 30, 2017. The aggregate unpaid principaloption (FVO) for all assets and all liabilities of the structured finance and other FG VIEs. Upon initial adoption of the accounting guidance for VIEs in 2010, the Company elected to fair value its structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities as the carrying amount transition method was approximately $432 million greaternot practical. To allow for consistency in the accounting for the assets and liabilities of its consolidated FG VIEs other than the aggregate fair value at December 31, 2016.

Puerto Rico Trusts, the Company elected the FVO. The change in fair value of all structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities is reported in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs” in the condensed consolidated statement of operations, except for the change in fair value attributable to change in instrument-specific credit risk of(ISCR) on the structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets held as of September 30, 2017 that was recordedliabilities, which is reported in the consolidated statements of operations for Third Quarter 2017 and Nine Months 2017 were gains of $8 million and gains of $32 million, respectively.other comprehensive income (OCI). The change in the instrument-specific credit risk of the FG VIEs’ assets held as of September 30, 2016 that was recorded in the consolidated statements of operations for Third Quarter 2016 and Nine Months 2016 were gains of $1 million and gains of $36 million, respectively. To calculate the instrument specific credit risk, the changes in the fair value of the FG VIE assets are allocated between changes that are due to the instrument specific credit risk and changes due to other factors, including interest rates. The instrument specific credit riskISCR amount is determined by using expected contractual cash flows versusat the original date of consolidation, discounted at the effective yield, less current expected cash flows discounted at that same original contractual rate.effective yield. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Company consolidated 23 and 24 structured finance and other FG VIEs, respectively.

Puerto Rico Trusts

With respect to certain insured securities covered by the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions, insured bondholders were permitted to elect to receive custody receipts that represent an interest in the legacy insurance policy plus cash and investments. At least one separate custodial trust was set up for each legacy insured bond, and the trusts are deconsolidated when their liabilities are paid off. For those who made the election above, distributions of Plan Consideration are passed through to insured bondholders under the custody receipts to the extent of any cash or proceeds of new securities held in the custodial trust and are applied to make payments and/or prepayments of amounts due under the legacy insured bonds. The Company’s insurance policy continues to guarantee principal and interest coming due on the legacy insured bonds in accordance with the terms of such insurance policy on the originally scheduled legacy bond interest and principal payment dates to the extent that distributions of Plan Consideration are insufficient to pay or prepay such amounts after giving effect to the distributions described in the immediately preceding sentence. In the case of insured bondholders who elected to receive custody receipts, the Company retains the right to satisfy its obligations under the insurance policy with respect to the related legacy insured bonds at any time thereafter, with 30 days’ notice, by paying 100% of the then outstanding principal amount of insured bonds plus accrued interest.

By December 31, 2023, substantially all of the securities in the Puerto Rico Trusts had been called, and the assets in the Puerto Rico Trusts consisted primarily of cash. In January 2024, such cash proceeds were used to pay down a portion of the liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts. The remaining liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts will be paid by the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the credit of PRHTA. For the Puerto Rico Trust liabilities, the Company elected the FVO in order to simplify the accounting for these instruments. As of both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 the Company consolidated 24 custodial trusts established as part of the Puerto Rico resolutions reached in 2022. See Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, Exposure to Puerto Rico.

Components of FG VIEs’ Assets and Liabilities

Net fair value gains and losses on FG VIEs are expected to reverse to zero by the maturity of the FG VIEs’ debt, except for net presentpremiums received and net claims paid by the insurance subsidiaries under the financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company’s estimate of expected loss to be paid (recovered) for FG VIEs is included in Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered).

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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The table below shows the carrying value of FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities segregated by type of collateral.

Consolidated FG VIEs by Type of Collateral
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
FG VIEs’ assets:
U.S. RMBS first lien$139 $145 
U.S. RMBS second lien26 28 
Puerto Rico Trusts’ assets (includes $2 and $1 at fair value) (1)155 
Total FG VIEs’ assets$167 $328 
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien$151 $156 
U.S. RMBS second lien20 21 
Puerto Rico Trusts’ liabilities218 366 
Total FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse$389 $543 
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien$10 $11 
Total FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse$10 $11 
____________________
(1)    Includes $154 million of cash as December 31, 2023.

The inception-to-date change in fair value of the FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse (all of which are measured at fair value under the FVO) attributable to the ISCR is calculated by discountingholding all current period assumptions constant for each security and isolating the expected cash flowseffect of the underlying security, atchange in the relevant effective interest rate.insurance subsidiaries’ CDS spread from the most recent date of consolidation to the current period.

The unpaid principalSelected Information for FG VIE liabilities with recourse, which represent obligations insured by AGC or AGM, was $705 millionVIEs’ Assets and $871 million as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively.Liabilities
Measured under the FVO
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Excess of unpaid principal over fair value of:
FG VIEs’ assets$260 $259 
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse31 25 
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse16 16 
Unpaid principal balance for FG VIEs’ assets that were 90 days or more past due27 29 
Unpaid principal for FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse (1)
420 568 
____________________
(1)    FG VIEVIEs’ liabilities with recourse will mature at various dates ranging from 20252024 through 2041.

CIVs

CIVs consist of certain Sound Point funds for which the Company is the primary beneficiary or has a controlling interest. The Company consolidates investment vehicles that are VIEs when it is deemed to 2038. be the primary beneficiary, based on its power to direct the most significant activities of each VIE and its level of economic interest in the entities.

The aggregate unpaid principal balanceassets and liabilities of the FG VIE liabilities with and withoutCompany’s CIVs are held within separate legal entities. The assets of the CIVs are not available to creditors of the Company, other than creditors of the applicable CIVs. In addition, creditors of the CIVs have no recourse was approximately $75 million greateragainst the assets of the Company, other than the aggregateassets of such applicable CIVs. Liquidity available at the Company’s CIVs is not available for corporate liquidity needs, except to the extent of the Company’s investment in the funds, subject to redemption provisions. Changes in the fair value of the FG VIEs’ liabilities as of September 30, 2017. The aggregate unpaid principal balance was approximately $109 million greater than the aggregate fair value of the FG VIEs' liabilities as of December 31, 2016.

The table below shows the carrying value of the consolidated FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities in the consolidated financial statements, segregated by the types of assets that collateralize their respective debt obligations for FG VIE liabilities with recourse.

Consolidated FG VIEs
By Type of Collateral

 As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
 Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities
 (in millions)
With recourse: 
  
  
  
U.S. RMBS first lien$378
 $400
 $473
 $509
U.S. RMBS second lien150
 188
 178
 223
Manufactured housing68
 69
 74
 75
Total with recourse596
 657
 725
 807
Without recourse111
 111
 151
 151
Total$707
 $768
 $876
 $958


The consolidation of FG VIEs affects netCIVs, interest income and shareholders' equity due to (i) changesexpense, and gains and losses on consolidation and deconsolidation of CIVs are reported in fair“fair value gains (losses) on FG VIE assets and liabilities, (ii) the elimination of premiums and losses related to the AGC and AGM FG VIE liabilities with recourse and (iii) the elimination of investment balances related to the Company’s purchase of AGC and AGM insured FG VIE debt. Upon consolidation of a FG VIE, the related insurance and, if applicable, the related investment balances, are considered intercompany transactions and therefore eliminated. Such eliminations are includedCIVs” in the table belowcondensed
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Notes to present the full effectCondensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
consolidated statements of consolidating FG VIEs.

Effectoperations. As of Consolidating FG VIEs on Net Income (Loss),
Cash Flows From Operating Activitiesboth March 31, 2024 and Shareholders' Equity
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Net earned premiums$(3) $(4) $(11) $(12)
Net investment income(2) (1) (4) (8)
Net realized investment gains (losses)0
 0
 0
 1
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs3
 (11) 25
 11
Loss and LAE1
 (1) 5
 3
Effect on income before tax(1) (17) 15
 (5)
Less: tax provision (benefit)0
 (6) 5
 (2)
Effect on net income (loss)$(1) $(11) $10
 $(3)
        
Effect on cash flows from operating activities$6
 $11
 $16

$16
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (in millions)
Effect on shareholders' equity (decrease) increase$1
 $(9)



Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs represent the net change in fair value on the consolidated FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities. During Third Quarter 2017 and Nine Months 2017,December 31, 2023, the Company recorded pre-tax net fair value gains on consolidated FG VIEsthree CIVs.

Assets and Liabilities of CIVs
As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents$22 $35 
Equity securities89 83 
Structured products264 248 
Other— 
Total assets (1)$377 $366 
Liabilities:
Other liabilities (2)$$
Total liabilities$$
____________________
(1)    Includes investments with affiliated entities of $309 million and $281 million as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
(2)    The balance is reported in “other liabilities” in the condensed consolidated balance sheets. Includes $3 million with affiliated entities as of both March 31, 2024 and $25December 31, 2023.

As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the CIVs included derivative contracts with average notional amounts of $38 million and $41 million, respectively. During Third Quarter 2017, the primary driverDerivative instruments, which include forward foreign currency contracts, serve as a component of the gain was price depreciation on the FG VIE recourse liabilities during the quarter resulting from the Company's credit risk. During the Nine Months 2017, the primary driver of the gain is price appreciation on the FG VIE assets resulting from improvements in the underlying collateral.
During Third Quarter 2016, the Company recorded a pre-tax net fair value loss on consolidated FG VIEs of $11 million and during Nine Months 2016, the Company recorded a gain of $11 million.CIVs’ investment strategies. The primary drivers of the loss during Third Quarter 2016 were the net mark-to-market losses due to price depreciation on the FG VIE assets, resulting from declines in value in the underlying collateral, and the price appreciation on the FG VIE recourse liabilities during the quarter, resulting from the Company's credit risk. The primary driver of the Nine Months 2016 gain in fair value of FG VIEs assetsderivative contracts is reported in the “assets of CIVs” or “other liabilities” in the condensed consolidated balance sheets.
Noncontrolling Interest in CIVs

Noncontrolling interest (NCI) represents the portion of the consolidated funds not owned by the Company and liabilities was net mark-to-market gains due to price appreciationincludes ownership interests of third parties and former employees. The NCI is non-redeemable and presented on the FG VIE assets during the nine months period resulting from improvements in the underlying collateral.statement of shareholders’ equity.


Other Consolidated VIEs


In certain instances where the Company consolidates a VIE that was established as part of a loss mitigation negotiated settlement agreement that results in the termination of the obligations under the original insured financial guaranty insurance or insured credit derivative contract, the Company classifies the assets and liabilities of those VIEsthat VIE in the line items that most accurately reflect the nature of the items,such assets and liabilities, as opposed to within the FG VIEVIEs’ assets and FG VIEVIEs’ liabilities. The largest of these VIEs had assets of $92 million and liabilities of $7 million as of December 31, 2023, which were reported in “investments” and “credit derivative liabilities” on the condensed consolidated balance sheets. In first quarter 2024, the Company deconsolidated the largest of these VIEs and recognized a $5 million gain on deconsolidation, which is included in “fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives” in the condensed consolidated statements of operations.


Non-Consolidated VIEs

    As described in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, the Company monitors all policies in the insured portfolio. Of the approximately 15 thousand policies monitored as of March 31, 2024, approximately 14 thousand policies are not within the scope of FASB ASC 810 because these financial guaranties relate to the debt obligations of governmental organizations or financing entities established by a governmental organization. The majority of the remaining policies involve transactions where the Company is not deemed to currently have control over the FG VIEs’ most significant activities. As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016,2023, the Company had financial guaranty contracts outstanding for approximately 520identified 60 and 600 VIEs,68 policies, respectively, that it didcontain provisions and experienced events that may trigger consolidation.
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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The Company holds variable interests in VIEs which are not consolidate based onconsolidated, as the Company’s analyses which indicate that itCompany is not the primary beneficiarybeneficiary. As of any other VIEs. TheMarch 31, 2024, the Company’s maximum exposure provided through its financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities is included within net par outstanding in Note 4, Outstanding Exposure.losses relating to these VIEs was $395 million.


10.Investments and Cash
Net Investment Income and Realized Gains (Losses)

Net investment income is a function of the yield that the Company earns on invested assets and the size of the portfolio. The investment yield is a function of market interest rates at the time of investment as well as the type, credit quality and maturity of the invested assets. Accrued investment income, which is recorded in Other Assets, was $102 million and $91 million as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively.9.    Fair Value Measurement
 
Net Investment IncomeThe Company carries a significant portion of its assets and liabilities at fair value. Fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date (i.e., exit or transfer price). The price represents the price available in the principal market for the asset or liability. If there is no principal market, then the price is based on a hypothetical market that maximizes the value received for an asset or minimizes the amount paid for a liability (i.e., the most advantageous market).
Fair value is based on quoted market prices, where available. If listed prices or quotes are not available, fair value is based on either (i) internally developed models that primarily use, as inputs, market-based or independently sourced market parameters (including, but not limited to, yield curves, interest rates, and debt prices) or (ii) discounted cash flows using a third party’s proprietary pricing models. In addition to market information, when applicable, the models also incorporate transaction details, such as the instrument’s maturity and contractual features that reduce the Company’s credit exposure (e.g., collateral rights).

Valuation adjustments may be made to ensure that financial instruments are recorded at fair value. These adjustments include amounts to reflect counterparty credit quality, the Company’s creditworthiness and constraints on liquidity. As markets and products develop and the pricing transparency for certain products changes, the Company may refine its methodologies and assumptions. During first quarter 2024, no changes were made to the Company’s valuation models that had (or are expected to have) a material impact on the Company’s condensed consolidated balance sheets or statements of operations and comprehensive income.
The Company’s valuation methods produce fair values that may not be indicative of net realizable value or future fair values. The use of different methodologies or assumptions to determine fair value of certain financial instruments could result in a materially different estimate of fair value at the reporting date.
The categorization within the fair value hierarchy is determined based on whether the inputs to valuation techniques used to measure fair value are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect Company estimates of market assumptions. The fair value hierarchy prioritizes model inputs into three broad levels, with Level 1 being the highest and Level 3 the lowest. The categorization, of an asset or liability, within the hierarchy is based on the lowest level of significant input to its valuation.

Level 1—Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets. The Company generally defines an active market as a market in which trading occurs at significant volumes. Active markets generally are more liquid and have a lower bid-ask spread than an inactive market.
Level 2—Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and observable inputs other than quoted prices, such as interest rates or yield curves and other inputs derived from or corroborated by observable market inputs.
Level 3—Model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable. Financial instruments are considered Level 3 when their values are (i) determined using pricing models, discounted cash flow methodologies or similar techniques and (ii) at least one significant model assumption or input is unobservable. Level 3 financial instruments also include those for which the determination of fair value requires significant management judgment or estimation.

There was a transfer of securities into Level 3 in the investment portfolio and in CIVs due to changes in observability of pricing inputs in first quarter 2024. There were no other transfers from or into Level 3 during the periods presented.
 
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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Income from fixed-maturity securities managed by third parties$74
 $75
 $224
 $231
Income from internally managed securities:       
Fixed maturities (1)27
 19
 100
 58
Other1
 2
 5
 8
Gross investment income102
 96
 329
 297
Investment expenses(3) (2) (7) (6)
Net investment income$99
 $94
 $322
 $291
____________________
(1)    Nine Months 2017 includes accretion on Zohar II Notes.



Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Gross realized gains on available-for-sale securities (1)
$23
 $4
 $92
 $24
Gross realized losses on available-for-sale securities(3) (1) (9) (3)
Net realized gains (losses) on other invested assets0
 0
 0
 0
Other-than-temporary impairment(13) (5) (29) (26)
Net realized investment gains (losses)$7
 $(2) $54
 $(5)
____________________
(1)Nine Months 2017 includes a gain on Zohar II Notes used as consideration for the MBIA UK Acquisition. Please refer to Note 2, Acquisitions.


The following table presents the roll-forward of the credit losses of fixed-maturity securities for which the Company has recognized an other-than-temporary-impairment and where the portion of the fair value adjustment related to other factors was recognized in OCI.
Roll Forward of Credit Losses
in the Investment Portfolio

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Balance, beginning of period$145
 $108
 $134
 $108
Additions for credit losses on securities for which an other-than-temporary-impairment was not previously recognized3
 1
 6
 3
Reductions for securities sold and other settlements0
 
 (4) (4)
Additions for credit losses on securities for which an other-than-temporary-impairment was previously recognized5
 1
 17
 3
Balance, end of period$153
 $110
 $153
 $110



Investment Portfolio

Fixed-Maturity Securities and Short-Term Investments
by Security Type
As of September 30, 2017

Investment Category 
Percent
of
Total(1)
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Gross
Unrealized
Gains
 
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
 
Estimated
Fair
Value
 
AOCI(2)
Gain
(Loss) on
Securities
with
Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Weighted
Average
Credit
Rating
 (3)
  (dollars in millions)
Fixed-maturity securities:  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Obligations of state and political subdivisions 49% $5,445
 $277
 $(17) $5,705
 $21
  AA-
U.S. government and agencies 2
 256
 14
 0
 270
 0
  AA+
Corporate securities 18
 1,932
 62
 (18) 1,976
 (6)  A+
Mortgage-backed securities(4): 0
      
    
  
RMBS 8
 866
 27
 (12) 881
 2
  BBB+
CMBS 5
 551
 15
 (4) 562
 
  AAA
Asset-backed securities 6
 682
 170
 0
 852
 143
  B
Foreign government securities 3
 313
 6
 (19) 300
 
  AA
Total fixed-maturity securities 91
 10,045
 571
 (70) 10,546
 160
  A+
Short-term investments 9
 948
 1
 0
 949
 
  AAA
Total investment portfolio 100% $10,993
 $572
 $(70) $11,495
 $160
  A+



Fixed-Maturity Securities and Short-Term Investments
by Security Type
As of December 31, 2016

Investment Category 
Percent
of
Total(1)
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Gross
Unrealized
Gains
 
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
 
Estimated
Fair
Value
 
AOCI
Gain
(Loss) on
Securities
with
Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Weighted
Average
Credit
Rating
 (3)
  (dollars in millions)
Fixed-maturity securities:  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Obligations of state and political subdivisions 50% $5,269
 $202
 $(39) $5,432
 $13
��AA
U.S. government and agencies 4
 424
 17
 (1) 440
 
 AA+
Corporate securities 15
 1,612
 32
 (31) 1,613
 (8) A-
Mortgage-backed securities(4):  
  
  
  
  
  
  
RMBS 9
 998
 27
 (38) 987
 (21) A-
CMBS 5
 575
 13
 (5) 583
 
 AAA
Asset-backed securities 8
 835
 110
 0
 945
 33
 B
Foreign government securities 3
 261
 4
 (32) 233
 
 AA
Total fixed-maturity securities 94
 9,974
 405
 (146) 10,233
 17
 A+
Short-term investments 6
 590
 0
 0
 590
 
 AAA
Total investment portfolio 100% $10,564
 $405
 $(146) $10,823
 $17
 A+
____________________
(1)Based on amortized cost.
(2)Accumulated OCI (AOCI). See also Note 17, Shareholders' Equity for additional information as applicable.

(3)Ratings in the tables above represent the lower of the Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings, a division of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P) classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation or risk management strategies, which use internal ratings classifications. The Company’s portfolio consists primarily of high-quality, liquid instruments.
(4)Government-agency obligations were approximately 39% of mortgage backed securities as of September 30, 2017 and 42% as of December 31, 2016 based on fair value.

The Company’s investment portfolio in tax-exempt and taxable municipal securities includes issuances by a wide number of municipal authorities across the U.S. and its territories.

The following tables summarize, for all fixed-maturity securities in an unrealized loss position, the aggregate fair value and gross unrealized loss by length of time the amounts have continuously been in an unrealized loss position.Carried at Fair Value
 
Fixed-Maturity Securities
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length
The fair value of Timefixed-maturity securities is generally based on prices received from third-party pricing services or alternative pricing sources that provide reasonable levels of price transparency. The pricing services prepare estimates of fair value using their pricing models, which take into account: benchmark yields, reported trades, broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two-sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers, reference data, industry and economic events and sector groupings. Additional valuation factors that can be taken into account are nominal spreads and liquidity adjustments. The pricing services evaluate each asset class based on relevant market and credit information, perceived market movements, and sector news.
As
In many cases, benchmark yields have proven to be more reliable indicators of September 30, 2017the market for a security, as compared to reported trades for infrequently traded securities and distressed transactions. The extent of the use of each input is dependent on the asset class and the market conditions. The valuation of fixed-maturity securities is more subjective when markets are less liquid due to the lack of market-based inputs.
 
    As of March 31, 2024, the Company used models to price 186 securities. All Level 3 securities were priced with the assistance of independent third parties. The pricing is based on a discounted cash flow approach using the third party’s proprietary pricing models. The models use inputs such as projected prepayment speeds; severity assumptions; recovery lag assumptions; estimated default rates (determined based on an analysis of collateral attributes, historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); home price appreciation/depreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecasts; and recent trading activity. The yield used to discount the projected cash flows is determined by reviewing various attributes of the security including collateral type, weighted average life, sensitivity to losses, vintage, and convexity, in conjunction with market data on comparable securities. Significant changes to any of these inputs could have materially changed the expected timing of cash flows within these securities which could have significantly affected the fair value of the securities.
 Less than 12 months 12 months or more Total
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Loss
 Fair
Value
 Unrealized
Loss
 Fair
Value
 Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$445
 $(10) $253
 $(7) $698
 $(17)
U.S. government and agencies114
 0
 4
 0
 118
 0
Corporate securities136
 (1) 252
 (17) 388
 (18)
Mortgage-backed securities:       
 

 

RMBS107
 (1) 170
 (11) 277
 (12)
CMBS50
 0
 76
 (4) 126
 (4)
Asset-backed securities66
 0
 3
 0
 69
 0
Foreign government securities35
 (1) 147
 (18) 182
 (19)
Total$953
 $(13) $905
 $(57) $1,858
 $(70)
Number of securities (1) 
 292
  
 230
  
 513
Number of securities with other-than-temporary impairment 
 9
  
 14
  
 23

Short-Term Investments
 

Short-term investments that are traded in active markets are classified as Level 1 as their value is based on quoted market prices. Securities such as discount notes are classified as Level 2 because these securities are typically not actively traded due to their approaching maturity and, as such, their cost approximates fair value.
Fixed-Maturity Securities
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
As of December 31, 2016

 Less than 12 months 12 months or more Total
 Fair
Value
 Unrealized
Loss
 Fair
Value
 Unrealized
Loss
 Fair
Value
 Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$1,110
 $(38) $6
 $(1) $1,116
 $(39)
U.S. government and agencies87
 (1) 
 
 87
 (1)
Corporate securities492
 (11) 118
 (20) 610
 (31)
Mortgage-backed securities: 
  
  
  
 

 

RMBS391
 (23) 94
 (15) 485
 (38)
CMBS165
 (5) 
 
 165
 (5)
Asset-backed securities36
 0
 0
 0
 36
 0
Foreign government securities44
 (5) 114
 (27) 158
 (32)
Total$2,325
 $(83) $332
 $(63) $2,657
 $(146)
Number of securities (1) 
 622
  
 60
  
 676
Number of securities with other-than-temporary impairment 
 8
  
 9
  
 17
___________________
(1)
The number of securities does not add across because lots consisting of the same securities have been purchased at different times and appear in both categories above (i.e., less than 12 months and 12 months or more). If a security appears in both categories, it is counted only once in the total column.

Other Assets
 
OfCommitted Capital Securities

Each of AGC and AGM have entered into put agreements with four separate custodial trusts allowing each of AGC and AGM to issue an aggregate of $200 million of non-cumulative redeemable perpetual preferred securities to the securitiestrusts in an unrealized loss positionexchange for 12 monthscash. Each custodial trust was created for the primary purpose of issuing $50 million face amount of CCS, investing the proceeds in high-quality assets and entering into put options with AGC or moreAGM, as applicable.

The fair value of September 30, 2017, 28 securities had unrealized losses greater than 10% of book value. The total unrealized loss for these securities as of September 30, 2017 was $26 million. As of December 31, 2016,CCS, which is reported in other assets on the condensed consolidated balance sheets, represents the difference between the present value of the securitiesremaining expected put option premium payments under AGC CCS and AGM’s Committed Preferred Trust Securities (the AGM CPS) agreements, and the estimated present value of the amounts that the Company would hypothetically have to pay currently for a comparable security. The change in fair value of the AGC CCS and AGM CPS are reported in “fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities” in the condensed consolidated statements of operations. The estimated current cost of the Company’s CCS is based on several factors, including AGM and AGC CDS spreads, the Company’s publicly traded debt and an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more, 41 securities had unrealized losses greater than 10%estimation of book value with an unrealized loss of $59 million.the securities’ remaining term. The AGC CCS and AGM CPS are classified as Level 3.

Supplemental Executive Retirement Plans

    The Company classified assets included in the Company’s various supplemental executive retirement plans as either Level 1 or Level 2. The fair value of these assets is based on the observable published daily values of the underlying mutual funds included in the plans (Level 1) or based upon the NAV of the funds if a published daily value is not available (Level 2).
47

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
The NAVs are based on observable information. The change in fair value of these assets is reported in “other operating expenses” in the condensed consolidated statements of operations.
Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives
The Company’s credit derivatives, which primarily consist of insured CDS contracts, qualify as derivatives under GAAP that require fair value measurement, with changes in fair value reported in the condensed consolidated statements of operations. The Company does not enter into CDS contracts with the intent to trade these contracts and may not unilaterally terminate a CDS contract absent an event of default or termination event that entitles the Company to terminate such contract. The Company and its counterparties have negotiated the termination of certain contracts from time to time. Transactions are generally terminated for an amount that approximates the present value of future premiums or a negotiated amount, rather than fair value.

The terms of the Company’s CDS contracts differ from more standardized credit derivative contracts sold by companies outside the financial guaranty industry. The non-standard terms generally include the absence of collateral support agreements or immediate settlement provisions, and the Company’s insured exposure benefits from relatively high attachment points or other protections. Management considers the non-standard terms of the Company’s credit derivative contracts in determining the fair value of these contracts.

There is no established market where financial guaranty insured credit derivatives are actively traded; therefore, management has determined that the unrealized losses recorded asexit market for the Company’s credit derivatives is a hypothetical one based on its entry market. Due to the lack of September 30, 2017 were yield-relatedquoted prices and notother observable inputs for its instruments or for similar instruments, the result of other-than-temporary-impairment.
The amortized cost and estimatedCompany determines the fair value of available-for-sale fixed maturity securities by contractual maturityits credit derivative contracts primarily through internally developed, proprietary models that use both observable and unobservable market data inputs, and such contracts are therefore classified as of September 30, 2017 are shown below. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may haveLevel 3 in the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.
Distribution of Fixed-Maturity Securities
by Contractual Maturity
As of September 30, 2017
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Due within one year$249
 $250
Due after one year through five years1,518
 1,552
Due after five years through 10 years2,280
 2,365
Due after 10 years4,581
 4,936
Mortgage-backed securities: 
  
RMBS866
 881
CMBS551
 562
Total$10,045
 $10,546

Based on fair value investmentshierarchy. There are multiple unobservable inputs deemed significant to the valuation model, most importantly the Company’s estimate of the value of the non-standard terms and restricted cash that are either held in trust forconditions of its credit derivative contracts and how the benefitCompany’s own credit spread affects the pricing of third party ceding insurers in accordance with statutory requirements, placed on deposit to fulfill state licensing requirements, or otherwise restricted total $286 million and $285 million, as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively. The investment portfolio also contains securities that are held in trust by certain AGL subsidiaries for the benefit of other AGL subsidiaries in accordance with statutory and regulatory requirements in the amount of $1,676 million and $1,420 million, based on fair value as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively.its transactions.

The fair value of the Company’s pledged securitiescredit derivative contracts generally represents the difference between the present value of remaining premiums the Company expects to secure its obligations under itsreceive and the estimated present value of premiums that a financial guarantor of comparable credit-worthiness would hypothetically charge at the reporting date for the same protection. The fair value of the Company’s credit derivatives depends on a number of factors, including notional amount of the contract, expected term, credit spreads, changes in interest rates, the credit ratings of referenced entities, the Company’s own credit risk and remaining contractual cash flows. The expected remaining contractual premium cash flows are the most readily observable inputs since they are based on the CDS exposure totaled $18 millioncontractual terms. Credit spreads capture the effect of recovery rates and $116 millionperformance of underlying assets of these contracts, among other factors. Consistent with previous years, market conditions as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 were such that market prices of the Company’s CDS contracts were not available.

Assumptions and Inputs

The various inputs and assumptions that are key to the measurement of the Company’s fair value for CDS contracts are as follows: the gross spread, the allocation of gross spread among the bank profit, net spread and hedge cost and the weighted average life (which is based on debt service schedules).

The primary sources of information used to determine gross spread and the fair value for CDS contracts include actual collateral credit spreads (if up-to-date and reliable market-based spreads are available), transactions priced or closed during a specific quarter within a specific asset class and specific rating, and information provided by the counterparty of the CDS. Credit spreads may also be interpolated based upon market indices adjusted to reflect the non-standard terms of the Company’s CDS contracts, or extrapolated based upon transactions of similar asset classes, similar ratings, and similar time to maturity.
The Company’s pricing model considers not only how credit spreads on its insured risks affect pricing, but also how the Company’s own credit spread affects the pricing of its transactions. The amount of premium a financial guaranty insurance market participant can demand (or “current premium”) is inversely related to the cost of credit protection on the insurance company as measured by market credit spreads assuming all other assumptions remain constant. This is because the buyers of credit protection typically hedge a portion of their risk to the financial guarantor, because the contractual terms of the Company’s contracts typically do not require the posting of collateral by the guarantor. The extent of the hedge depends on the types of instruments insured and the current market conditions.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued

The Company’s own credit risk is factored into the determination of the current premium based on the quoted market price for credit protection bought on the Company, as reflected by quoted market prices on CDS contracts referencing AGC. AGM's CDS spreads do not significantly affect the fair value of derivatives because of the characteristics of the derivative contracts remaining in its portfolio. The Company obtains the quoted price of CDS contracts traded on AGC from market data sources published by third parties. As the cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AGC increases, the amount of premium the Company retains on a transaction generally decreases.

In the Company’s valuation model, the current premium is not permitted to go below the minimum rate that the Company would charge to assume similar risks in the reporting period. This assumption can have the effect of limiting the amount of unrealized gains that are recognized on certain CDS contracts. Approximately 14.2% and 11.5%, based on fair value, of the Company’s CDS contracts were fair valued using this minimum premium as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016,2023, respectively. Please refer to Note 8. Contracts Accounted for

A credit derivative liability on protection sold is the result of contractual cash inflows on in-force transactions that are lower than what a hypothetical financial guarantor could receive if it sold protection on the same risk as Credit Derivatives, for more information.
No material investments of the reporting date. If the Company were non-income producingable to freely exchange these contracts (i.e., assuming its contracts did not contain proscriptions on transfer and there was a viable exchange market), it would realize a loss representing the difference between the lower contractual premiums to which it is entitled and the current market premiums for Nine Months 2017a similar contract. The Company determines the fair value of its CDS contracts by applying the difference between the current premium and Nine Months 2016, respectively.the contractual premium for the remaining duration of each contract to the notional value of such contract and then discounting such amounts using the applicable discount rate corresponding to the weighted average remaining life of the contract. The rates used to discount future expected premium cash flows ranged from 3.44% to 5.42% as of March 31, 2024 and 3.26% to 4.81% as of December 31, 2023.

Externally Managed Portfolio


The majorityCompany’s credit derivative valuation model is a consistent approach that takes into account the transaction structure and the key drivers of market value and maximizes the use of market-driven inputs whenever they are available. However, because there is no exit market or any actual exit transactions, the Company’s exit market is a hypothetical one based on the Company’s entry market and there is a very limited and illiquid market in which to validate the reasonableness of the investment portfolio is managedfair values developed by five outside managers. The Company has established detailed guidelines regarding credit quality, exposure to a particular sector and exposure to a particular obligor within a sector. The Company's investment guidelines generally do not permit its outside managers to purchase securities rated lower than A- by S&P or A3 by Moody’s, excluding a 5% allocation to corporate securities not rated lower than BBB by S&P or Baa2 by Moody’s.the Company’s model.
 
Internally Managed PortfolioFG VIEs’ Assets and Liabilities


The investment portfolio tables shown aboveFG VIEs include both assets managed externallyPuerto Rico Trusts and internally. In the table below, more detailed information is provided for the componentstructured finance and other FG VIEs. As of the total investment portfolio that is internally managed (excluding short-term investments). The internally managed portfolio, as defined below, represents approximately 11% and 15% of the investment portfolio, on a fair value basis as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016, respectively.2023, assets in the Puerto Rico Trusts, consisted of one fixed-maturity debt security classified as Level 3. The internally managed portfolio consists primarilyCompany elected the FVO for the Puerto Rico Trusts’ liabilities and they are classified as Level 3. Structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities are carried at fair value under the FVO and are classified as Level 3.

The fair value of the Company's investmentsresidential mortgage loan FG VIEs’ assets is generally sensitive to changes in securitiesestimated prepayment speeds; estimated default rates (determined on the basis of an analysis of collateral attributes such as: historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); yields implied by market prices for (i) loss mitigation purposes, (ii)similar securities; and, as applicable, house price depreciation/appreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecasts. Significant changes to some of these inputs could have materially changed the fair value of the FG VIEs’ assets and the implied collateral losses within these transactions. In general, the fair value of the FG VIEs’ assets is most sensitive to changes in the projected collateral losses, where an increase in collateral losses typically leads to a potential decrease in the fair value of FG VIEs’ assets, while a decrease in collateral losses typically leads to an increase in the fair value of FG VIEs’ assets.

The prices of the assets and liabilities of the FG VIEs are generally determined with the assistance of an independent third party, based on a discounted cash flow approach. The third party pricing service utilizes an internal model to determine an appropriate yield at which to discount the cash flows of the security, by factoring in collateral types, weighted-average lives and other risk management purposes and (iii) wherestructural attributes specific to the security being priced. The expected yield is further calibrated by utilizing algorithms designed to aggregate market color, received by the independent third party, on comparable bonds.

The models used to price the FG VIEs’ liabilities (other than the liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts) generally apply the same inputs used in determining fair value of FG VIEs’ assets. For those liabilities insured by the Company, believes a particular security presents an attractive investment opportunity.
Onethe benefit of the Company's strategies for mitigating losses has beenCompany’s insurance policy guaranteeing the timely payment of debt service is also taken into account. The liabilities of
49

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to purchase securities it has insured that haveCondensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
the Puerto Rico Trusts are priced based on the value of the assets in the Puerto Rico Trusts including the value of the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries’ financial guaranty policies.

Significant changes to any of the inputs described above could materially change the timing of expected losses (loss mitigation securities), at discounted prices.within an insured transaction. This is a significant factor in determining the implied benefit of the Company’s insurance policy which guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest for the insured tranches of debt issued by the FG VIEs. In addition,general, extending the timing of expected loss payments by the Company holds other invested assets that were obtained or purchased as parttypically leads to a decrease in the value of negotiated settlementsthe Company’s insurance and a decrease in the fair value of the Company’s FG VIEs’ liabilities with insured counterparties or underrecourse, while a shortening of the termstiming of our financial guaranties (other risk management assets). During 2016,expected loss payments by the Company establishedtypically could lead to an alternative investments group to focus on deploying a portionincrease in the value of the Company's excess capital to pursue acquisitionsCompany’s insurance and develop new business opportunities that complementan increase in the Company's financial guaranty business, are in line with its risk profile and benefit from its core competencies. The alternative investments group has been investigating a number of such opportunities, including, among others, both controlling and non-controlling investments in investment managers.

Internally Managed Portfolio
Carrying Value

 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (in millions)
Assets purchased for loss mitigation and other risk management purposes:   
Fixed-maturity securities, at fair value$1,220
 $1,492
Other invested assets20
 107
Other76
 55
Total$1,316
 $1,654


Cash and Restricted Cash

The following table provides a reconciliationfair value of the cashCompany’s FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse.

The change in fair value of FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities is reported in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs” in the condensed consolidated statement of operations, except for the change in fair value attributable to change in ISCR on FG VIEs’ liabilities. Interest income and interest expense are derived from the trustee reports and also included in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs.”

Assets and Liabilities of CIVs

Investments held by CIVs which are quoted on a national securities exchange are valued at their last reported sale price on the date of determination. Investments held by CIVs which are traded over-the-counter reflect third-party data generally at the average of dealer offer and bid prices. The valuation methodology may include, but is not limited to: (i) performing price comparisons with similar investments; (ii) obtaining valuation-related information from issuers; (iii) calculating the present value of future cash flows; (iv) assessing other data related to the investment that is an indication of value; (v) obtaining information provided by third parties; and/or (vi) evaluating information provided by the investment manager. Inputs may include dealer price quotations, yield curves, credit curves, forward/CDS/index spreads, prepayments rates, strike and expiry dates, volatility statistics and other factors.

Significant changes to any of the inputs described above could have a material effect on the fair value of the consolidated balance sheetsassets and the cash and restricted cash reportedliabilities.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Amounts recorded at fair value in the Company’s financial statements of cash flows.are presented in the tables below. 


Cash and Restricted Cash

 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 
As of
September 30, 2016
 
As of
December 31, 2015
 (in millions)
Cash$72
 $118
 $98
 $166
Restricted cash (1)0
 9
 1
 0
Total cash and restricted cash$72
 $127
 $99
 $166
____________________
(1)Amounts relate to cash held in trust accounts and are reported in other assets in consolidated balance sheets. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for more information.


11.Insurance Company Regulatory Requirements
Dividend Restrictions and Capital Requirements

Under New York insurance law, AGM and MAC may only pay dividends out of "earned surplus," which is the portion of the company's surplus that represents the net earnings, gains or profits (after deduction of all losses) that have not been distributed to shareholders as dividends, transferred to stated capital or capital surplus, or applied to other purposes permitted by law, but does not include unrealized appreciation of assets. AGM and MAC may each pay dividends without the prior approval of the New York SuperintendentFair Value Hierarchy of Financial Services (New York Superintendent) that, together with all dividends declared or distributed by it during the preceding 12 months, do not exceed the lesserInstruments Carried at Fair Value
As of 10%March 31, 2024
 Fair Value Hierarchy
 Level 1Level 2Level 3Total
 (in millions)
Assets:   
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale   
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$— $2,325 $$2,331 
U.S. government and agencies— 55 — 55 
Corporate securities— 2,101 — 2,101 
Mortgage-backed securities:
RMBS— 249 153 402 
CMBS— 196 — 196 
Asset-backed securities— 101 821 922 
Non-U.S. government securities— 84 — 84 
Total fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale— 5,111 980 6,091 
Fixed-maturity securities, trading— 272 — 272 
Short-term investments1,649 — — 1,649 
Other invested assets (1)— — 
FG VIEs’ assets— — 167 167 
Assets of CIVs:
Equity securities— — 89 89 
Structured products— 44 220 264 
Total assets of CIVs— 44 309 353 
Other assets61 55 123 
Total assets carried at fair value$1,710 $5,482 $1,467 $8,659 
Liabilities:
Credit derivative liabilities$— $— $43 $43 
FG VIEs’ liabilities (2)— — 399 399 
Total liabilities carried at fair value$— $— $442 $442 

51

Table of its policyholders' surplus (asContents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Fair Value Hierarchy of its last annual or quarterly statement filed with the New York Superintendent) or 100% of its adjusted net investment income during that period.Financial Instruments Carried at Fair Value

The maximum amount available during 2017 for AGM to distribute as dividends without regulatory approval is estimated to be approximately $196 million. Of such $196 million, approximately $54 million is available for distribution in the fourth quarter of 2017. Through August 25, 2017, MAC paid $36 million in dividends based on dividend capacity at that point. After the $250 million share repurchase on September 25, 2017, as discussed below, MAC has no additional dividend capacity for the remainder of 2017.

Under Maryland's insurance law, AGC may, with prior notice to the Maryland Insurance Commissioner, pay an ordinary dividend that, together with all dividends paid in the prior 12 months, does not exceed the lesser of 10% of its policyholders' surplus (as of the prior December 31) or 100% of its adjusted net investment income during that period. The maximum amount available during 2017 for AGC to distribute as ordinary dividends is approximately $107 million. Of such $107 million, approximately $41 million is available for distribution in the fourth quarter of 2017.

For AG Re, any distribution (including repurchase of shares) of any share capital, contributed surplus or other statutory capital that would reduce its total statutory capital by 15% or more of its total statutory capital as set out in its previous year's financial statements requires the prior approval of the Bermuda Monetary Authority (Authority). Separately, dividends are paid out of an insurer's statutory surplus and cannot exceed that surplus. Further, annual dividends cannot exceed 25% of total statutory capital and surplus as set out in its previous year's financial statements, which is $314 million, without AG Re certifying to the Authority that it will continue to meet required margins. As of December 31, 2016,2023
 Fair Value Hierarchy
 Level 1Level 2Level 3Total
 (in millions)
Assets:   
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for sale   
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$— $2,655 $$2,661 
U.S. government and agencies— 60 — 60 
Corporate securities— 2,141 — 2,141 
Mortgage-backed securities:
RMBS— 188 154 342 
CMBS— 151 — 151 
Asset-backed securities— 49 803 852 
Non-U.S. government securities— 100 — 100 
Total fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale— 5,344 963 6,307 
Fixed-maturity securities, trading— 318 — 318 
Short-term investments1,657 — 1,661 
Other invested assets (1)— — 
FG VIEs’ assets— — 174 174 
Assets of CIVs:
Equity securities and warrants— 80 83 
Structured products— 59 189 248 
Total assets of CIVs— 62 269 331 
Other assets55 52 16 123 
Total assets carried at fair value$1,712 $5,780 $1,425 $8,917 
Liabilities:
Credit derivative liabilities$— $— $53 $53 
FG VIEs’ liabilities (2)— — 554 554 
Total liabilities carried at fair value$— $— $607 $607 
___________________
(1)    Includes Level 3 mortgage loans that are recorded at fair value on a non-recurring basis.
(2)    Includes FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse and FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Changes in Level 3 Fair Value Measurements
The tables below present a roll forward of the Authority now requires insurersCompany’s Level 3 financial instruments carried at fair value on a recurring basis during first quarter 2024 and first quarter 2023.

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Notes to prepare statutory financial statementsCondensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis
First Quarter 2024
Fixed-Maturity Securities, Available-for-SaleAssets of CIVs
 Obligations
of State and
Political
Subdivisions
 RMBS Asset-
Backed
Securities
 FG VIEs’
Assets
Equity SecuritiesStructured ProductsOther
(7)
 
 (in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2023$$154 $803 $174 $80 $189 $14 
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:  
Net income (loss)— (1)16 (1)(2)(2)(4)(4)(10)(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)—  — —  
Purchases— — 10  — — 29 —  
Sales— — — — (2)(12)— 
Settlements— (5)(30)(6)— — —  
Transfers into Level 3— — 20 — 10 — 
Fair value as of March 31, 2024$$153 $821 $167 $89 $220 $
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of March 31, 2024 included in:
Earnings$(3)(2)$(4)$(4)$(10)(3)
OCI$— $$$


Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis
First Quarter 2024
 Credit Derivative
Liability, net (5)
 FG VIEs’ Liabilities (8)
 (in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2023$(50)$(554)
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:  
Net income (loss)10 (6)(2)
Other comprehensive income (loss)—  (2) 
Settlements 148  
Fair value as of March 31, 2024$(39)$(399)
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of March 31, 2024 included in:
Earnings$(6)$(2)
OCI$(2)

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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis
First Quarter 2023
Fixed-Maturity Securities, Available-for-SaleAssets of CIVs
 Obligations
of State and
Political
Subdivisions
 RMBS Asset-
Backed
Securities
FG VIEs’
Assets
Equity Securities and WarrantsCorporate SecuritiesStructured ProductsOther
(7)
 (in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2022$47 $179 $794 $204 $297 $96 $46 $50 
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)— (1)(1)(2)33 (4)(2)(4)(4)(16)(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)(1)(3)— — — — — 
Purchases— — — — — 
Sales— — — — (5)(5)(31)— 
Settlements(1)(7)(4)(8)— — — — 
Fair value as of March 31, 2023$47 $174 $795 $197 $329 $93 $17 $34 
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of March 31, 2023 included in:
Earnings$— $32 (4)$(3)(4)$— $(16)(3)
OCI$$(1)$(3)$— 


Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis
First Quarter 2023
 Credit Derivative
Liability, net (5)
 FG VIEs’
Liabilities (8)
Liabilities of CIVs (9)
 (in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2022$(162)$(715)$(4,154)
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:  
Net income (loss)15 (6)(2)(62)(4)
Other comprehensive income (loss)— (1)(8)
Settlements(1)
Fair value as of March 31, 2023$(148)$(704)$(4,220)
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of March 31, 2023 included in:
Earnings$14 (6)$(2)(2)$(65)(4)
OCI$(1)$(8)
____________________
(1)Included in accordance with“net realized investment gains (losses)” and “net investment income.”
(2)Included in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs.”
(3)Reported in “fair value gains (losses) on CCS”, “net investment income” and “other income (loss).”
(4)Reported in “fair value gains (losses) on CIVs.”
(5)Represents the particular accounting principles adopted by the insurer (which,net position of credit derivatives. Credit derivative assets (reported in “other assets”) and credit derivative liabilities (presented as a separate line item) are shown as either assets or liabilities in the casecondensed consolidated balance sheets based on policy.
(6)Reported in “fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives.”
(7)Includes CCS and other invested assets.
(8)Includes FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse and FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse.
(9)Includes primarily various tranches of AG Re, are U.S. GAAP)CLO debt. The CLOs were collateralized financing entities that were consolidated until the Sound Point Transaction occurred on July 1, 2023.
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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), subject to certain adjustments. As a result of this new requirement, certain assets previously non-admitted by AG Re are now admitted, resulting in an increase to AG Re’s statutory capital and surplus limitation. Based on the foregoing limitations, in 2017 AG Re has the capacity to (i) make capital distributions in an aggregate amount up to $128 million without the prior approval of the Authority and (ii) declare and pay dividends in an aggregate amount up to approximately $314 million as of September 30, 2017. Such dividend capacity is further limited by the actual amount of AG Re’s unencumbered assets, which amount changes from time to time due in part to collateral posting requirements. Continued
Level 3 Fair Value Disclosures
Quantitative Information About Level 3 Fair Value Inputs
As of September 30, 2017, AG Re had unencumberedMarch 31, 2024
Financial Instrument DescriptionFair Value Assets (Liabilities)
(in millions)
Significant Unobservable InputsRangeWeighted Average (4)
Investments (2):  
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale (1):  
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$Yield7.0 %-22.5%7.8%
RMBS153 CPR0.9 %-15.0%3.2%
CDR1.5 %-18.8%5.7%
Loss severity50.0 %-125.0%81.6%
Yield7.6 %-11.4%9.0%
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs439 Discount margin1.0 %-9.6%2.5%
Others382 Yield6.6 %-10.1%7.8%
FG VIEs’ assets (1)167 CPR0.2 %-21.6%7.6%
CDR1.3 %-41.0%10.5%
Loss severity45.0 %-100.0%82.9%
Yield5.7 %-10.8%9.5%
Assets of CIVs (3):
Equity securities89 Discount rate16.5 %-23.5%20.5%
Market multiple-price to book1.05x
Market multiple-price to earnings5.25x
Terminal growth rate4.0%
Exit multiple-price to book1.10x
Exit multiple-price to earnings5.25x
Structured products220 Yield9.8 %-23.5%16.6%
Other assets (1)Implied Yield7.5 %-8.0%7.8%
Term (years)10 years
Credit derivative liabilities, net (1)(39)Hedge cost (in basis points) (bps)8.7-20.612.5
Bank profit (in bps)83.6-268.3139.4
Internal floor (in bps)10.0
Internal credit ratingAAA-CCCA
FG VIEs’ liabilities (1)(399)CPR0.2 %-21.6%7.6%
CDR1.3 %-41.0%10.5%
Loss severity45.0 %-100.0%82.9%
Yield4.8 %-10.8%5.9%
___________________
(1)    Discounted cash flow is used as the primary valuation technique.
(2)    Excludes several investments reported in “other invested assets” with a fair value of $4 million.
(3)    The primary valuation technique uses the income and/or market approach; the key inputs to the valuation are yield/discount rates and market multiples.
(4)    Weighted average is calculated as a percentage of current par outstanding for all categories except for assets of approximately $572CIVs, for which it is calculated as a percentage of fair value.

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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Quantitative Information About Level 3 Fair Value Inputs
As of December 31, 2023
Financial Instrument DescriptionFair Value Assets (Liabilities)
(in millions)
Significant Unobservable InputsRangeWeighted Average (4)
Investments (2):   
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale (1):  
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$Yield7.4 %-22.5%7.8%
RMBS154 CPR0.1 %-15.0%3.4%
CDR1.5 %-18.8%5.6%
Loss severity50.0 %-125.0%82.6%
Yield7.5 %-11.3%8.9%
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs450 Discount margin1.1 %-9.5%2.6%
Others353Yield6.2 %-11.7%7.8%
FG VIEs’ assets (1)174 CPR0.2 %-21.4%7.8%
CDR1.3 %-41.0%10.4%
Loss severity45.0 %-100.0%82.9%
Yield5.5 %-10.9%9.4%
Assets of CIVs (3):
Equity securities80 Discount rate20.9%
Market multiple-price to book1.10x
Market multiple-price to earnings5.50x
Terminal growth rate4.0%
Exit multiple-price to book1.10x
Exit multiple-price to earnings5.50x
Structured products189Yield14.7 %-21.4%18.0%
Other assets (1)
13 Year 1 loss estimates7.8 %-8.4%8.1%
Term (years)10 years
Credit derivative liabilities, net (1)(50)Hedge cost (in bps)10.2-26.515.8
Bank profit (in bps)105.6-302.6158.6
Internal floor (in bps)10.0
Internal credit ratingAAA-CCCA
FG VIEs’ liabilities (1)(554)CPR0.2 %-21.4%7.8%
CDR1.3 %-41.0%10.4%
Loss severity45.0 %-100.0%82.9%
Yield5.0 %-10.7%5.8%
____________________
(1)    Discounted cash flow is used as the primary valuation technique.
(2)    Excludes several investments reported in “other invested assets” with a fair value of $3 million.

(3)    The primary valuation technique uses the income and/or market approach, the key inputs to the valuation are yield/discount rates and market multiples.

(4)    Weighted average is calculated as a percentage of current par outstanding for all categories except for assets of CIVs, for which it is calculated as a percentage of fair value.
U.K. company law prohibits each
56

Table of AGE, AGLN and AGUK from declaring a dividendContents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to its shareholders unless it has “profits available for distribution.” The determination of whether a company has profits available for distributionCondensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Not Carried at Fair Value

Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts

Fair value is based on its accumulated realized profits less its accumulated realized losses. Whilemanagement’s estimate of what a similarly rated financial guaranty insurance company would demand to acquire the U.K.Company’s in-force book of financial guaranty insurance regulatory laws impose no statutory restrictionsbusiness. It is based on a general insurer's abilityvariety of factors that include pricing assumptions management has observed for portfolio transfers, commutations, and acquisitions that have occurred in the financial guaranty market, and also includes adjustments for stressed losses, ceding commissions and return on capital. The Company classified the fair value of financial guaranty insurance contracts as Level 3.
Long-Term Debt
Long-term debt issued by the U.S. Holding Companies is valued by broker-dealers using independent third-party pricing sources and standard market conventions and classified as Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy. The market conventions utilize market quotations, market transactions for the Company’s comparable instruments, and to declare a dividend,lesser extent, similar instruments in the Prudential Regulation Authority's capital requirements maybroader insurance industry.

Assets and Liabilities of CIVs

Cash equivalents are recorded at cost which approximates fair value. Due from/to brokers and counterparties primarily consists of cash, margin deposits, cash collateral with the clearing brokers and various counterparties and the net amounts receivable/payable for securities transactions that had not settled at the balance sheet date. Due from/to brokers and counterparties represents balances on a net-by counterparty basis on the condensed consolidated balance sheets where a contractual right of offset exists under an enforceable netting arrangement. The cash at brokers is partially related to derivative contracts; its use is therefore restricted until the derivative contracts are closed. The carrying value approximates fair value of these items and are considered Level 1 in practice act as a restriction on dividends. In addition, AGLN currently must confirm that the Prudential Regulation Authority doesfair value hierarchy.
The carrying amount and estimated fair value of the Company’s financial instruments not object tocarried at fair value are presented in the paymentfollowing table.

Fair Value of any dividend to its parent company before AGLN makes any dividend payment.Financial Instruments Not Carried at Fair Value

Dividends and Repayments
By Insurance Company Subsidiaries

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Dividends paid by AGC to AGUS$15
 $15
 $66
 $38
Dividends paid by AGM to AGMH63
 65
 142
 192
Dividends paid by AG Re to AGL45
 35
 125
 85
Dividends paid by MAC to MAC Holdings (1)12
 
 36
 
Repayment of surplus note by MAC to AGM
 
 
 100
Repayment of surplus note by MAC to MAC Holdings (1)
 
 
 300
Redemption of common stock by MAC to MAC Holdings (1)250
 
 250
 
 As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
 Carrying
Amount
Estimated
Fair Value
Carrying
Amount
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Assets (liabilities):    
Assets of CIVs$27 $27 $19 $19 
Other assets (including other invested assets)79 80 79 80 
Financial guaranty insurance contracts (1)(2,153)(1,635)(2,244)(1,811)
Long-term debt(1,695)(1,597)(1,694)(1,593)
Other liabilities(24)(24)(15)(15)
____________________
(1)MAC Holdings distributed nearly the entire amounts to AGM and AGC, in proportion to their ownership percentages.

(1)    Carrying amount includes the assets and liabilities related to financial guaranty insurance contract premiums, losses, and salvage and subrogation and other recoverables net of reinsurance.


Stock Redemption by MAC

10.    Income Taxes
On August 17, 2017, the New York Superintendent approved MAC's request to repurchase 64,322 of its shares of
common stock from its direct parent, MAC Holdings, for approximately $250 million. MAC implemented the stock
redemption plan on September 25, 2017, transferring approximately $104 million in cash and $146 million in marketable
securities to MAC Holdings, which then distributed such assets to its shareholders, AGM and AGC, in proportion to their
respective 61% and 39% ownership interests, such that AGM received approximately $152 million ($6 million in cash and
$146 million in securities) and AGC received approximately $98 million (all in cash). Each share repurchased by MAC was
retired and ceased to be an authorized share. Pursuant to MAC's Amended and Restated Charter, the par value of MAC's
remaining shares of common stock issued and outstanding increased automatically in order to maintain MAC's total paid-in
capital at $15 million.

12.Income Taxes


Overview
 
Under Bermuda law, there was no Bermuda income, corporate or profits tax or withholding tax, capital gains tax or capital transfer tax payable by AGL and its "Bermuda Subsidiaries," which consist ofor AG Re, AGRO and Cedar Personnel Ltd. (collectively, the Bermuda Subsidiaries) in 2023 and first quarter 2024. AGL’s U.S., are not subject to any income, withholding or capital gains taxes under current Bermuda law. The Company has received an assurance from the Minister of Finance in Bermuda that, in the event of any taxes being imposed, AGLU.K. and its Bermuda Subsidiaries will be exempt from taxation in Bermuda until March 31, 2035. AGL's U.S. and U.K.French subsidiaries are subject to income taxes imposed by U.S., U.K. and U.K.French authorities, respectively, and file applicable tax returns. In addition, AGRO, a Bermuda domiciled company, has elected under Section 953(d) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code (the Code)Section 953(d) to be taxed as a U.S. domestic corporation.


In November 2013,
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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
AGL becameis a tax resident in the U.K. although it remains a Bermuda-based company and its administrative and head office functions continue to be carried on in Bermuda. AGL is subject to U.K. corporation tax in respect of its worldwide profits (both income and capital gains), subject to any applicable exemptions. The main rate of corporation tax is 19% beginning April 1, 2017.


AGUS files a consolidated federal income tax return with all of its U.S. subsidiaries. AGE, the Company’s U.K. subsidiary, had previously elected under Section 953(d) of the Code to be taxed as a U.S. company. In January 2017, AGE filed

a request with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to revoke the election, which was approved in May 2017. As a result of the revocation of the Section 953(d) election, AGE will no longer be liable to pay future U.S. taxes beginning in 2017.

On January 10, 2017, AGC purchased MBIA UK, a U.K.-based insurance company. After the purchase, MBIA UK changed its name to AGLN and continues to file its tax returns in the U.K. as a separate entity. For additional information on the MBIA UK Acquisition, please refer to Note 2, Acquisitions. Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries, AGRO and AG Intermediary Inc., file their own consolidated federal income tax return.


In July of 2023, the U.K. government passed legislation to implement the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s (OECD) Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Pillar Two income inclusion rule. This includes a multinational top-up tax which will apply to large multinational corporations for accounting periods beginning on or after December 31, 2023. This will apply to AGL and its subsidiaries, requiring a minimum effective rate of 15% in all jurisdictions in which they operate.

In addition, on December 27, 2023 the Bermuda government enacted a corporate income tax at the rate of 15% which will apply for accounting periods starting on or after January 1, 2025. The enactment of the corporate income tax regime required the Company to recognize Bermuda deferred taxes for the first time and was recognized in the period that includes the date of enactment. An economic transition adjustment (ETA) equal to the difference between the fair market value and the carrying value of assets and liabilities of each of the Company’s Bermuda insurance subsidiaries as of September 30, 2023 resulted in the establishment of a deferred tax asset and corresponding benefit of $189 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2023 consolidated statement of operations. The ETA is expected to be utilized over 10 to 15 years, beginning in 2025.
Tax Assets (Liabilities)

Deferred and Current Tax Assets (Liabilities)
As of
March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
(in millions)
Net deferred tax assets (liabilities)$256 $250 
Net current tax assets (liabilities)(39)(9)

Valuation Allowance
The Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the deferred tax assets will be fully realized after weighing all positive and negative evidence available as required under GAAP. The positive evidence that was considered included the cumulative income the Company has earned over the last three years and the significant unearned premium income to be included in taxable income. The positive evidence outweighs any negative evidence that exists. As such, the Company believes that no valuation allowance is necessary in connection with the remaining deferred tax assets. The Company will continue to analyze the need for a valuation allowance on a quarterly basis.

Changes in market conditions during 2024 and 2023, including rising interest rates, resulted in the recording of deferred tax assets related to net unrealized tax capital losses. When assessing recoverability of these deferred tax assets, the Company considers the ability and intent to hold the underlying securities to recovery in value, if necessary, as well as other factors as noted above. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, based on all available evidence, including capital loss carryback capacity, the Company concluded that the deferred tax assets related to the unrealized tax capital losses on the available-for-sale securities portfolios are, more likely than not, expected to be realized.

Provision for Income Taxes


The Company'sCompany’s provision for income taxes for interim financial periods is not based on an estimated annual effective rate due, for example, to the variability in loss reserves, fair value of its credit derivatives and VIEs, and foreign exchange gains and losses which prevents the Company from projecting a reliable estimated annual effective tax rate and pretaxpre-tax income for the full year 2017.2024. A discrete calculation of the provision is calculated for each interim period.


    The Company’s overall effective tax rate fluctuates based on the distribution of income across jurisdictions. The effective tax rates reflect the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with

U.S. subsidiaries taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 35%21%,
the French subsidiary taxed at the French marginal corporate tax rate of 25%,
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Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Bermuda Subsidiaries taxed at the Bermuda marginal corporate tax rate of 0%, unless subject to U.S. tax by election, and
U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. blended marginal corporate tax rate of 19.25% unless taxed as a U.S. controlled foreign corporation, and no taxes25% for the Company’s Bermuda Subsidiaries unless subject to U.S. tax by election. For periods subsequent tostarting April 1, 2017,2023 and 19% for periods ending on or before March 31, 2023. Effective January 1, 2024, the U.K. corporationadopted a global minimum tax rate has been reduced to 19%. Forof 15% under the periods between April 1, 2015 and March 31, 2017, the U.K. corporation tax rate was 20%. The Company’s overall effective tax rate fluctuates based on the distribution of income across jurisdictions.OECD’s BEPS Pillar Two rules.
 
A reconciliation of the difference between the provision for income taxes and the expected tax provision at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions is presented below.


Effective Tax Rate Reconciliation
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Expected tax provision (benefit)$23 $20 
Tax-exempt interest(2)(3)
NCI(1)(3)
State taxes
Foreign taxes
Global minimum tax— 
Stock based compensation— 
Other(1)— 
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes$31 $23 
Effective tax rate21.4 %19.1 %
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017
2016
 (in millions)
Expected tax provision (benefit) at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions$116
 $150
 $245
 $234
Tax-exempt interest(12) (12) (36) (38)
Gain on bargain purchase
 (125) (20) (125)
State taxes1
 0
 7
 1
Change in liability for uncertain tax positions8
 8
 (27) 10
Effect of provision to tax return filing adjustments(8) (16) (8) (16)
Other0
 (4) (4) (4)
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes$105
 $1
 $157
 $62
Effective tax rate33.6% 0.3% 18.8% 8.3%


The change in liability for uncertain tax positions for Nine Months 2017 is driven by the closure of the 2009 – 2012 IRS Audit, see "Audits" below for further discussion.


The expected tax provision at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions(benefit) is calculated as the sum of pretaxpre-tax income in each jurisdiction multiplied by the statutory tax rate of the jurisdiction by which it will be taxed. Pretax income of the Company’s subsidiaries which are not U.S. or U.K. domiciled but are subject to U.S. or U.K. tax by election, establishment of tax residency or as controlled foreign corporations, are included at the U.S. or U.K. statutory tax rate. Where there is a pretaxpre-tax loss in one jurisdiction and pretaxpre-tax income in another, the total combined expected tax rate may be higher or lower than any of the individual statutory rates.



 The following table presents pretaxtables present pre-tax income and revenue by jurisdiction.
 
PretaxPre-tax Income (Loss) by Tax Jurisdiction

 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
U.S.$129 $108 
Bermuda30 25 
U.K.(11)(11)
France(4)(2)
Total$144 $120 
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
United States$337
 $432
 $713
 $681
Bermuda(18) 56
 143
 88
U.K.(6) (8) (21) (23)
Total$313
 $480
 $835
 $746



Revenue by Tax Jurisdiction

First Quarter
Third Quarter Nine Months 20242023
2017 2016 2017 2016 (in millions)
(in millions)
United States$566
 $499
 $1,305
 $1,041
U.S.
Bermuda61
 69
 165
 170
U.K.(4) (2) (12) (4)
France
Total$623
 $566
 $1,458
 $1,207
     
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PretaxAssured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
Pre-tax income by jurisdiction may be disproportionate to revenue by jurisdiction to the extent that insurance losses incurred are disproportionate.

Valuation Allowance
As part of the Radian Asset Acquisition, the Company acquired $19 million of foreign tax credits (FTC) which will expire in 2020. In addition, AGE had $1 million of FTC prior to revoking its election to be taxed as a U.S. company in 2017. After reviewing positive and negative evidence, the Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the FTC will not be utilized, and therefore recorded a valuation allowance with respect to this tax attribute.

The Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the remaining net deferred tax asset will be fully realized after weighing all positive and negative evidence available as required under GAAP. The positive evidence that was considered included the cumulative income the Company has earned over the last three years, and the significant unearned premium income to be included in taxable income. The positive evidence outweighs any negative evidence that exists. As such, the Company believes that no valuation allowance is necessary in connection with this deferred tax asset. The Company will continue to analyze the need for a valuation allowance on a quarterly basis.


Audits


As of September 30, 2017,March 31, 2024, AGUS had open tax years with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for 2018 forward and is currently under audit for the 2018 and 2019 tax years. As of March 31, 2024, Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. had open tax years with the IRS for 2013 to present.2020 forward and is not currently under audit with the IRS. In September 2022, His Majesty’s Revenue & Customs (HMRC) completed a business risk review of Assured Guaranty that commenced in July 2022 and assigned a low-risk rating for corporate taxes in the U.K. In December 2016,2023, HMRC issued an inquiry into the IRS issued a Revenue Agent Report (RAR) which did not identify any material adjustments that were not already accounted for inCompany’s 2021 U.K. tax returns. As of December 31, 2023, the prior periods. In April 2017, the Company received a final letter from the IRS to close the audit with no additional findings or changes, and as a result the Company released previously recorded uncertain tax position reserves and accrued interest of approximately $37 million in the second quarter of 2017. Assured Guaranty Oversees US Holdings Inc. hasCompany's U.K. subsidiaries had open tax years of 2014with HMRC for 2021 forward. The Company's U.K. subsidiaries are not currently under examination and have open tax years of 2015 forward. CIFGNA, which was acquired by AGC during 2016,Company’s French subsidiary is not currently under examination and has open tax years of 2014 to present. The Company's French subsidiary, CIFGE, is not currently under examination and has open years of 2014 to present.2020 forward.



Uncertain Tax Positions

The Company's policy is to recognize interest related to uncertain tax positions in income tax expense and has accrued $1.2 million for Nine Months 2017 and $2 million for the full year 2016. As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, the Company has accrued $2 million and $7 million of interest, respectively.

The total amount of reserves for unrecognized tax positions, including accrued interest, as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016 that would affect the effective tax rate, if recognized, was $30 million and $57 million, respectively. The reduction in reserves is driven by the closure of the 2009- 2012 IRS Audit.
13.Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures
The Company assumes exposure (Assumed Business) and may cede portions of exposure it has insured (Ceded Business) in exchange for premiums, net of ceding commissions. Substantially all of the Company’s Assumed Business and Ceded Business relates to financial guaranty insurance, except for a modest amount that relates to non-financial guaranty business assumed by AGRO. The Company historically entered into, and with respect to new business originated by AGRO continues to enter into, ceded reinsurance contracts in order to obtain greater business diversification and reduce the net potential loss from large risks.

 The following table presents the components of premiums and losses reported in the consolidated statements of operations and the contribution of the Company's Assumed and Ceded Businesses (both financial guaranty and non-financial guaranty).

Effect of Reinsurance on Statement of Operations

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Premiums Written:       
Direct$46
 $17
 $227
 $80
Assumed (1)(1) (1) 8
 (9)
Ceded (2)27
 0
 37
 (17)
Net$72
 $16
 $272
 $54
Premiums Earned:       
Direct$186
 $237
 $516
 $647
Assumed6
 6
 20
 19
Ceded(6) (12) (24) (38)
Net$186
 $231
 $512
 $628
Loss and LAE:       
Direct$231
 $7
 $377
 $217
Assumed(1) (1) (1) (4)
Ceded(7) (15) (22) (30)
Net$223
 $(9) $354
 $183
 ____________________
(1)Negative assumed premiums written were due to changes in expected debt service schedules.

(2)    Positive ceded premiums written were due to commutations and changes in expected debt service schedules.

In addition to the items presented in the table above, the Company records in the consolidated statements of operations, the effect of assumed and ceded credit derivative exposures. These amounts were losses of $0.2 million in Third Quarter 2017, $25 million in Third Quarter 2016, $0.8 million for Nine Months 2017 and $26 million for Nine Months 2016.


Amounts Due (To) From All Reinsurers
As of September 30, 2017 

 Assumed
Premium, net
of Commissions
 Ceded
Premium, net
of Commissions
 Assumed
Expected
Loss to be Paid
 Ceded
Expected
Loss to be Paid
 (in millions)
Reinsurers rated investment grade$5
 $
 $1
 $
Reinsurers rated BIG or not rated:       
American Overseas Reinsurance Company Limited
 (4) 
 36
Syncora13
 (18) 
 (11)
Ambac31
 
 1
 
MBIA0
 
 (3) 
Financial Guaranty Insurance Company and FGIC UK Limited3
 
 (16) 
Ambac Assurance Corp. Segregated Account6
 
 (46) 
Subtotal53
 (22) (64) 25
Other0
 (3) 
 
Total$58
 $(25) $(63) $25


Assumed and Ceded Financial Guaranty Business
The Company assumes financial guaranty business (Assumed Financial Guaranty Business) from third party insurers, primarily other monoline financial guaranty companies. Under these relationships, the Company assumes a portion of the ceding company’s insured risk in exchange for a portion of the ceding company's premium for the insured risk (typically, net of a ceding commission). The Company’s facultative and treaty agreements are generally subject to termination at the option of the ceding company:

if the Company fails to meet certain financial and regulatory criteria and to maintain a specified minimum financial strength rating, or

upon certain changes of control of the Company.
Upon termination under these conditions, the Company may be required (under some of its reinsurance agreements) to return to the ceding company unearned premiums (net of ceding commissions) and loss reserves calculated on a statutory basis of accounting, attributable to reinsurance assumed pursuant to such agreements after which the Company would be released from liability with respect to the Assumed Financial Guaranty Business.

Upon the occurrence of the conditions set forth in the first bullet above, whether or not an agreement is terminated, the Company may be required to obtain a letter of credit or alternative form of security to collateralize its obligation to perform under such agreement or it may be obligated to increase the level of ceding commission paid.
The downgrade of the financial strength ratings of AG Re or of AGC gives certain ceding companies the right to recapture business they had ceded to AG Re and AGC, which would lead to a reduction in the Company's unearned premium reserve and related earnings on such reserve. With respect to a significant portion of the Company's in-force Assumed Financial Guaranty Business, based on AG Re's and AGC's current ratings and subject to the terms of each reinsurance agreement, the third party ceding company may have the right to recapture business it had ceded to AG Re and/or AGC, and in connection therewith, to receive payment from AG Re or AGC of an amount equal to the statutory unearned premium (net of ceding commissions) and statutory loss reserves (if any) associated with that business, plus, in certain cases, an additional required payment. As of September 30, 2017, if each third party insurer ceding business to AG Re and/or AGC had a right to recapture such business, and chose to exercise such right, the aggregate amounts that AG Re and AGC could be required to pay to all such companies would be approximately $49 million and $16 million, respectively.

The Company has ceded financial guaranty business to non-affiliated companies to limit its exposure to risk. Under these relationships, the Company ceded a portion of its insured risk to the reinsurer in exchange for the reinsurer receiving a

share of the Company's premiums for the insured risk (typically, net of a ceding commission). The Company remains primarily liable for all risks it directly underwrites and is required to pay all gross claims. It then seeks reimbursement from the reinsurer for its proportionate share of claims. The Company may be exposed to risk for this exposure if it were required to pay the gross claims and not be able to collect ceded claims from an assuming company experiencing financial distress. A number of the financial guaranty insurers to which the Company has ceded par have experienced financial distress and been downgraded by the rating agencies as a result. In addition, state insurance regulators have intervened with respect to some of these insurers. The Company’s ceded contracts generally allow the Company to recapture ceded financial guaranty business after certain triggering events, such as reinsurer downgrades.

During the first quarter of 2017, the Company entered into a commutation agreement to reassume the entire portfolio previously ceded to one of its unaffiliated reinsurers, consisting predominantly (over 97%) of U.S. public finance and international public and project finance exposures. During Third Quarter 2017, the Company entered into two commutation agreements. In one case, it reassumed the entire portfolio previously ceded to one of its unaffiliated reinsurers under quota share reinsurance, consisting predominantly of U.S. public finance and international public and project finance exposures. In the other case, it reassumed a portion of the portfolio previously ceded to one of its other unaffiliated reinsurers. The table below summarizes the effect of commutations.

Commutations of Ceded Reinsurance Contracts

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Increase (decrease) in net unearned premium reserve$62
 $
 $80
 $
Increase (decrease) in net par outstanding3,455
 28
 4,628
 28
Commutation gains (losses)255
 8
 328
 8


Other Exposures to Monoline Financial Guaranty Insurers
In addition to the Company’s assumed and ceded reinsurance arrangements with other monoline financial guaranty insurers, the Company may also have exposure to such companies in other areas. Second-to-pay insured par outstanding represents transactions the Company has insured that were previously insured by such other monoline financial guaranty insurers. The Company underwrites such transactions based on the underlying insured obligation without regard to the primary insurer. Another area of exposure is in the investment portfolio where the Company holds fixed-maturity securities that are wrapped by monolines and whose value may change based on the rating of the monoline. As of September 30, 2017, based on fair value, the Company had fixed-maturity securities in its investment portfolio consisting of $98 million insured by National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (National), $69 million insured by Ambac and $8 million insured by other guarantors.

Reinsurance and Other Exposures to Monolines

  Par Outstanding
  As of September 30, 2017
Reinsurer 
Ceded Par
Outstanding (1)
 
Assumed Par
Outstanding
 
Second-to-
Pay Insured Par
Outstanding (2)
  (in millions)
Reinsurers rated investment grade:      
National $
 $3,245
 $2,730
Subtotal 
 3,245
 2,730
Reinsurers rated BIG or not rated:      
American Overseas Reinsurance Company Limited (3) 2,445
 
 
Syncora (3) 1,994
 674
 1,156
ACA Financial Guaranty Corp. 208
 
 10
Ambac and Ambac Assurance UK Limited 112
 4,902
 1,927
MBIA 
 137
 565
Financial Guaranty Insurance Company and FGIC UK Limited 
 275
 821
Ambac Assurance Corp. Segregated Account 
 567
 51
Subtotal 4,759
 6,555
 4,530
Other (3) 52
 111
 410
Total $4,811
 $9,911
 $7,670
____________________
(1)Of the total ceded par to reinsurers rated BIG or not rated, $305 million is rated BIG.  

(2)The par on second-to-pay exposure where the primary insurer and underlying transaction rating are both BIG, and/or not rated, is $774 million.

(3)
The total collateral posted by all non-affiliated reinsurers required to post, or that had agreed to post, collateral as of September 30, 2017 was approximately $123 million.


Assumed and Ceded Non-Financial Guaranty Business

As described in Note 4, Outstanding Exposure, Non-Financial Guaranty Insurance, the Company, through AGRO, assumes non-financial guaranty business from third party insurers (Assumed Non-Financial Guaranty Business). It also retrocedes some of this business to third party reinsurers. The downgrade of AGRO’s financial strength rating by S&P below “A” would require AGRO to post, as of September 30, 2017, an estimated $5 million of collateral in respect of certain of its Assumed Non-Financial Guaranty Business. A further downgrade of AGRO’s S&P rating below A- would give the company ceding such business the right to recapture the business for AGRO’s collateral amount, and, if also accompanied by a downgrade of AGRO's financial strength rating by A.M. Best Company, Inc. below A-, would also require AGRO to post, as of September 30, 2017, an estimated $5 million of collateral in respect of a different portion of AGRO’s Assumed Non-Financial Guaranty Business. AGRO’s ceded contracts generally have equivalent provisions requiring the assuming reinsurer to post collateral and/or allowing AGRO to recapture the ceded business upon certain triggering events, such as reinsurer rating downgrades.

Excess of Loss Reinsurance Facility

AGC, AGM and MAC entered into a $360 million aggregate excess of loss reinsurance facility with a number of reinsurers, effective as of January 1, 2016, that covers losses occurring either from January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2023, or January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2024, at the option of AGC, AGM and MAC. It terminates on January 1, 2018, unless AGC, AGM and MAC choose to extend it. The facility covers certain U.S. public finance credits insured or reinsured by AGC, AGM and MAC as of September 30, 2015, excluding credits that were rated non-investment grade as of December 31, 2015 by Moody’s or S&P or internally by AGC, AGM or MAC and is subject to certain per credit limits. Among the credits excluded are those associated with the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and its related authorities and public corporations. The

facility attaches when AGC’s, AGM’s and MAC’s net losses (net of AGC’s and AGM's reinsurance (including from affiliates) and net of recoveries) exceed $1.25 billion in the aggregate. The facility covers a portion of the next $400 million of losses, with the reinsurers assuming pro rata in the aggregate $360 million of the $400 million of losses and AGC, AGM and MAC jointly retaining the remaining $40 million. The reinsurers are required to be rated at least AA- or to post collateral sufficient to provide AGM, AGC and MAC with the same reinsurance credit as reinsurers rated AA-. AGM, AGC and MAC are obligated to pay the reinsurers their share of recoveries relating to losses during the coverage period in the covered portfolio. AGC, AGM and MAC paid approximately $9 million of premiums in 2016 for the term January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016 and approximately $9 million of premiums for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017.
14.11.    Commitments and Contingencies


Legal Proceedings


Lawsuits arise in the ordinary course of the Company’s business. It is the opinion of the Company’s management, based upon the information available, that the expected outcome of litigation against the Company, individually or in the aggregate, will not have a material adverse effect on the Company’s financial position, or liquidity, although an adverse resolution of litigation against the Company in a fiscal quarter or year could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s results of operations or liquidity in athat particular quarter or year.


In addition, in the ordinary course of their respective businesses, certain of the Company'sAGL’s insurance subsidiaries assert claimsare involved in legal proceedings againstlitigation with third parties to recover insurance losses paid in prior periods or prevent or reduce losses in the future. For example, the Company has commencedis involved in a number of legal actions in the U.S.Federal District Court for the District of Puerto Rico to enforce or defend its rights with respect to the obligations it insures of Puerto Rico and various of its related authorities and public corporations. See the "Exposure“Exposure to Puerto Rico"Rico” section of Note 4,3, Outstanding Exposure, for a description of such actions. See also the "Recovery Litigation" section of Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid, for a description of recovery litigation unrelated to Puerto Rico. The amounts,impact, if any, the Company will recover inof these and other proceedings to recoveron the amount of recoveries the Company receives and losses areit pays in the future is uncertain, and recoveries, or failure to obtain recoveries, inthe impact of any one or more of these proceedings during any quarter or year could be material to the Company'sCompany’s results of operations in that particular quarter or year. In first quarter 2023, the Company reduced its previously recorded accrual of $20 million to zero in connection with developments in litigation.


The Company also receives subpoenasduces tecum and interrogatories from regulators from time to time.

The Company establishes accruals for litigation and regulatory matters to the extent it is probable that a loss has been incurred and the amount of that loss can be reasonably estimated. For litigation and regulatory matters where a loss may be reasonably possible, but not probable, or is probable but not reasonably estimable, no accrual is established, but if the matter is material, it is disclosed, including matters discussed below. The Company reviews relevant information with respect to its litigation and regulatory matters on a quarterly basis and updates its accruals, disclosures and estimates of reasonably possible loss based on such reviews.


Litigation


On November 28, 2011, Lehman Brothers International (Europe) (in administration) (LBIE) sued AG Financial Products Inc. (AGFP), an affiliate of AGC, which, in the past, had provided credit protection to counterparties under CDS. AGC acts as the credit support provider of AGFP under these CDS. LBIE’s complaint, which was filed in the Supreme Court of the State of New York alleged that AGFP improperly terminated(the Court), asserted a claim for breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing based on AGFP's termination in December 2008 of nine credit derivative transactions between LBIE and AGFP and improperly calculatedasserted claims for breach of contract and breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing based on AGFP’s termination payment in connection with the terminationJuly 2009 of 28 other credit derivative transactions between LBIE and AGFP.AGFP and AGFP’s calculation of the termination payment in connection with those 28 other credit derivative transactions. Following defaults by LBIE, AGFP properlyhad terminated the transactions in question in compliance with the agreement between AGFP and LBIE, and calculated the termination payment properly. AGFPproperly calculated that LBIE owes AGFP approximately $29$4 million for the claims which were dismissed (as described below) and approximately $21 million in connection with the termination of the other credit derivative transactions, whereas LBIE asserted in the complaint that AGFP owes LBIE a termination payment of approximately $1.4 billion. On February 3, 2012, AGFP filed a motion to dismiss certain of the counts in the complaint, and on March 15, 2013, the courtCourt granted AGFP'sAGFP’s motion to dismiss in respect of the count relating to improper termination of the nine credit derivative transactions and denied AGFP's motion to dismiss the counts relatingnarrowed LBIE’s claim with respect to the remaining28 other credit derivative transactions. Following a bench trial, on March 8, 2023, the Court rendered its decision and found in favor of AGFP. On February 22, 2016,June 30, 2023, the clerk entered judgment in favor of AGFP filedin the amount of approximately $54 million plus post-judgment simple interest at an annual rate of 8%. On July 1, 2023, AGFP moved the Court to award it approximately $58 million for attorneys’ fees and expenses AGFP incurred through March 2023. The parties reached a confidential settlement with respect to this motion for summary judgmentattorneys’ fees, and AGFP withdrew the motion without prejudice on October 30, 2023. On September 22, 2023, LBIE appealed the remaining causesCourt’s post-trial decision to the New York Appellate Division’s First Judicial Department (Appellate Division). On March 14, 2024, the Appellate Division affirmed the Court’s judgment. On April 15,
60

Table of action asserted byContents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
2024, LBIE and on AGFP's counterclaims. Oral argument on AGFP's motion took place on July 21, 2016. LBIE's administrators disclosedmoved for leave to reargue its appeal before the Appellate Division or, alternatively, to appeal to the New York Court of Appeals. The Company did not accrue in an April 10, 2015 report to LBIE’s unsecured creditors that LBIE's valuation expert has calculated LBIE's claim for damages in aggregateits financial statements for the 28 transactions to range between a minimum of approximately $200 million and a maximum of approximately $500 million, depending on what adjustment, if any, is made for AGFP's credit risk and excluding any applicable interest.judgment it was awarded or the attorneys’ fees it sought.




12.    Shareholders’ Equity
Proceedings Resolved Since December 31, 2016

On December 22, 2014, Deutsche Bank National Trust Company, as indenture trustee for the AAA Trust 2007-2 Re-REMIC (the Trustee), filed a “trust instructional proceeding” petition in the State of California Superior Court (Probate Division, Orange County), seeking the court’s instruction as to how it should allocate the losses resulting from its December 2014 sale of four RMBS owned by the AAA Trust 2007-2 Re-REMIC. This sale of approximately $70 million principal balance of RMBS was made pursuant to AGC’s liquidation direction in November 2014, and resulted in approximately $27 million of gross proceeds to the Re-REMIC. On December 22, 2014, AGC directed the indenture trustee to allocate to the uninsured Class A-3 Notes the losses realized from the sale. On May 4, 2015, the Superior Court rejected AGC’s allocation direction, and ordered the Trustee to allocate to the Class A-3 noteholders a pro rata share of the $27 million of gross proceeds. On May 17, 2017, the California Court of Appeal upheld the Superior Court’s rejection of AGC’s allocation direction. On June 15, 2017, the California Court of Appeal denied AGC’s petition for a rehearing, pursuant to an order that modified its initial opinion and affirmed the Superior Court’s May 4, 2015 order.
On September 25, 2013, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., as trust administrator of the MASTR Adjustable Rate Mortgages Trust 2007-3 (Wells Fargo), filed an interpleader complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York seeking adjudication of a dispute between Wales LLC (Wales) and AGM as to whether AGM is entitled to reimbursement from certain cashflows for principal claims paid in respect of insured certificates. After the court issued an opinion on September 30, 2016, denying a motion for judgment on the pleadings filed by Wales, Wales sold its interests in the MASTR Adjustable Rate Mortgage Trust 2007-3 certificates, and on March 20, 2017, the court dismissed the case.
15.Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities
The principal and carrying values of the Company’s long-term debt are presented in the table below.
Principal and Carrying Amounts of Debt

 As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
 Principal
Carrying
Value

Principal
Carrying
Value
 (in millions)
AGUS: 

 

 

 
7% Senior Notes (1)$200
 $197

$200
 $197
5% Senior Notes (1)500

496
 500
 496
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures (2)150
 150

150
 150
Total AGUS850
 843

850
 843
AGMH(3): 
  

 
  
67/8% QUIBS (1)100
 70

100
 69
6.25% Notes (1)230
 142

230
 141
5.6% Notes (1)100
 56

100
 56
Junior Subordinated Debentures (2)300
 191

300
 187
Total AGMH730
 459

730
 453
AGM(3): 
  

 
  
AGM Notes Payable8
 8

9
 10
Total AGM8
 8
 9
 10
Purchased debt (4)(28) (18) 
 
Total$1,560
 $1,292

$1,589
 $1,306
 ____________________
(1)AGL fully and unconditionally guarantees these obligations
(2)Guaranteed by AGL on a junior subordinated basis.
(3)
Carrying amounts are different than principal amounts due primarily to fair value adjustments at the AGMH acquisition date, which are accreted or amortized into interest expense over the remaining terms of these obligations.
(4)In 2017, AGUS purchased $28 million principal amount of AGMH's outstanding Junior Subordinated Debentures.

Intercompany Credit Facility and Intercompany Debt

On October 25, 2013, AGL, as borrower, and AGUS, as lender, entered into a revolving credit facility pursuant to which AGL may, from time to time, borrow for general corporate purposes. Under the credit facility, AGUS committed to lend a principal amount not exceeding $225 million in the aggregate. Such commitment terminates on October 25, 2018 (the loan termination date). The unpaid principal amount of each loan will bear interest at a fixed rate equal to 100% of the then applicable Federal short-term or mid-term interest rate, as the case may be, as determined under Section 1274(d) of the Code, and interest on all loans will be computed for the actual number of days elapsed on the basis of a year consisting of 360 days. Accrued interest on all loans will be paid on the last day of each June and December, beginning on December 31, 2013, and at maturity.  AGL must repay the then unpaid principal amounts of the loans by the third anniversary of the loan termination date. No amounts are currently outstanding under the credit facility.

In addition, in 2012 AGUS borrowed $90 million from its affiliate AGRO to fund the acquisition of MAC. During 2016, AGUS repaid $20 million in outstanding principal as well as accrued and unpaid interest, and the parties agreed to extend the maturity date of the loan from May 2017 to November 2019. As of September 30, 2017, $70 million remained outstanding.

Committed Capital Securities
Each of AGC and AGM have entered into put agreements with four separate custodial trusts allowing AGC and AGM, respectively, to issue an aggregate of $200 million of non-cumulative redeemable perpetual preferred securities to the trusts in exchange for cash. The custodial trusts were created for the primary purpose of issuing $50 million face amount of CCS, investing the proceeds in high-quality assets and entering into put options with AGC or AGM, as applicable. The Company does not consider itself to be the primary beneficiary of the trusts and the trusts are not consolidated in Assured Guaranty's financial statements.

The trusts provide AGC and AGM access to new equity capital at their respective sole discretion through the exercise of the put options. Upon AGC's or AGM's exercise of its put option, the relevant trust will liquidate its portfolio of eligible assets and use the proceeds to purchase the AGC or AGM preferred stock, as applicable. AGC or AGM may use the proceeds from its sale of preferred stock to the trusts for any purpose, including the payment of claims. The put agreements have no scheduled termination date or maturity. However, each put agreement will terminate if (subject to certain grace periods) specified events occur. Both AGC and AGM continue to have the ability to exercise their respective put options and cause the related trusts to purchase their preferred stock.

Prior to 2008 or 2007, the amounts paid on the CCS were established through an auction process. All of those auctions failed in 2008 or 2007, and the rates paid on the CCS increased to their respective maximums. The annualized rate on the AGC CCS is one-month LIBOR plus 250 basis points, and the annualized rate on the AGM CPS is one-month LIBOR plus 200 basis points.

Please refer to Note 7, Fair Value Measurement, –Other Assets–Committed Capital Securities, for a fair value measurement discussion.


16.    Earnings Per Share
Computation of EPS

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Basic EPS:       
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL$208
 $479
 $678
 $684
Less: Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to nonvested shareholders0
 1
 1
 1
Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to common shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries, basic$208
 $478
 $677
 $683
Basic shares118.7
 131.9
 121.8
 134.0
Basic EPS$1.75
 $3.63
 $5.56
 $5.10
        
Diluted EPS:       
Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to common shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries, basic$208
 $478
 $677
 $683
Plus: Re-allocation of undistributed income (loss) available to nonvested shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries0
 0
 0
 0
Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to common shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries, diluted$208
 $478
 $677
 $683
        
Basic shares118.7
 131.9
 121.8
 134.0
Dilutive securities:       
Options and restricted stock awards2.0
 0.9
 1.7
 0.9
Diluted shares120.7
 132.8
 123.5
 134.9
Diluted EPS$1.72
 $3.60
 $5.48
 $5.06
Potentially dilutive securities excluded from computation of EPS because of antidilutive effect
 0.0
 0.1
 0.5



17.Shareholders' Equity


Other Comprehensive Income
 
The following tables present the changes in each component of AOCIaccumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) and the effect of reclassifications out of AOCI oninto the respective line itemslines in net income.the condensed consolidated statements of operations.


Changes in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) by Component
ThirdFirst Quarter 20172024

Net Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Investments with:ISCR on
 FG VIEs’ Liabilities with Recourse
Cumulative
Translation
Adjustment
Cash Flow 
Hedge
Total AOCI
 No Credit ImpairmentCredit Impairment
(in millions)
Balance, December 31, 2023$(202)$(104)$(20)$(38)$$(359)
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications(31)10 (2)— (22)
Less: Amounts reclassified from AOCI to:
Net realized investment gains (losses)(2)10 — — — 
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs— — (1)— — (1)
Total before tax(2)10 (1)— — 
Tax (provision) benefit— (1)— — — (1)
Total amount reclassified from AOCI, net of tax(2)(1)— — 
Other comprehensive income (loss)(29)(1)— (28)
Balance, March 31, 2024$(231)$(103)$(21)$(37)$$(387)


61

 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with no Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Cumulative
Translation
Adjustment
 
Cash Flow 
Hedge
 
Total 
Accumulated
Other
Comprehensive
Income
 (in millions)
Balance, June 30, 2017$228
 $107
 $(27) $7
 $315
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications27
 (15) 3
 
 15
Amounts reclassified from AOCI to:         
Net realized investment gains (losses)(24) 17
 
 
 (7)
Net investment income
 
 
 
 
Interest expense
 
 
 0
 0
Total before tax(24) 17
 
 0
 (7)
Tax (provision) benefit9
 (6) 
 0
 3
Total amount reclassified from AOCI, net of tax(15) 11
 
 0
 (4)
Net current period other comprehensive income (loss)12
 (4) 3
 0
 11
Balance, September 30, 2017$240
 $103
 $(24) $7
 $326
Table of Contents

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued


Changes in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) by Component
ThirdFirst Quarter 20162023

Net Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Investments with:ISCR on
 FG VIEs’ Liabilities with Recourse
Cumulative
Translation
Adjustment
Cash Flow 
Hedge
Total AOCI
 No Credit ImpairmentCredit Impairment
(in millions)
Balance, December 31, 2022$(343)$(110)$(23)$(45)$$(515)
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications91 (2)— 92 
Less: Amounts reclassified from AOCI to:
Net realized investment gains (losses)(5)— — — (2)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs— — (1)— — (1)
Total before tax(5)(1)— — (3)
Tax (provision) benefit(1)— — — — 
Total amount reclassified from AOCI, net of tax(4)(1)— — (3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)89 (1)— 95 
Balance, March 31, 2023$(254)$(105)$(24)$(43)$$(420)
 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with no Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Cumulative
Translation
Adjustment
 
Cash Flow 
Hedge
 
Total 
Accumulated
Other
Comprehensive
Income
 (in millions)
Balance, June 30, 2016$426
 $(24) $(26) $7
 $383
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications(33) 13
 (5) 
 (25)
Amounts reclassified from AOCI to:        

Net realized investment gains (losses)(3) 4
 
 
 1
Net investment income
 
 
 
 
Interest expense
 
 
 0
 0
Total before tax(3) 4
 
 0
 1
Tax (provision) benefit0
 (1) 
 0
 (1)
Total amount reclassified from AOCI, net of tax(3) 3
 
 0
 
Net current period other comprehensive income (loss)(36) 16
 (5) 0
 (25)
Balance, September 30, 2016$390
 $(8) $(31) $7
 $358


Changes in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income by Component
Nine Months 2017

 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with no Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Cumulative
Translation
Adjustment
 
Cash Flow 
Hedge
 
Total 
Accumulated
Other
Comprehensive
Income
 (in millions)
Balance, December 31, 2016$171
 $10
 $(39) $7
 $149
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications133
 81
 15
 
 229
Amounts reclassified from AOCI to:         
Net realized investment gains (losses)(71) 18
 
 
 (53)
Net investment income(28) 
 
 
 (28)
Interest expense
 
 
 0
 0
Total before tax(99) 18
 
 0
 (81)
Tax (provision) benefit35
 (6) 
 0
 29
Total amount reclassified from AOCI, net of tax(64) 12
 
 0
 (52)
Net current period other comprehensive income (loss)69
 93
 15
 0
 177
Balance, September 30, 2017$240
 $103
 $(24) $7
 $326



Changes in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income by Component
Nine Months 2016

 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with no Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Net Unrealized
Gains (Losses) on
Investments with Other-Than-Temporary Impairment
 
Cumulative
Translation
Adjustment
 
Cash Flow 
Hedge
 
Total 
Accumulated
Other
Comprehensive
Income
 (in millions)
Balance, December 31, 2015$260
 $(15) $(16) $8
 $237
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications146
 (10) (15) 
 121
Amounts reclassified from AOCI to:         
Net realized investment gains (losses)(20) 25
 
 
 5
Net investment income(3) 
 
 
 (3)
Interest expense
 
 
 (1) (1)
Total before tax(23) 25
 
 (1) 1
Tax (provision) benefit7
 (8) 
 0
 (1)
Total amount reclassified from AOCI, net of tax(16) 17
 
 (1) 0
Net current period other comprehensive income (loss)130
 7
 (15) (1) 121
Balance, September 30, 2016$390
 $(8) $(31) $7
 $358


Share Repurchase

The following table presents share repurchases since January 2016.


Share Repurchases

Period Number of Shares Repurchased 
Total Payments
(in millions)
 Average Price Paid Per Share
2016 (January 1 - March 31) 3,038,928
 $75
 $24.69
2016 (April 1 - June 30) 2,331,474
 60
 25.73
2016 (July 1 - September 30) 2,050,229
 55
 26.83
2016 (October 1 - December 31, 2016) 3,300,617
 116
 35.09
Total 2016 10,721,248
 306
 28.53
2017 (January 1 - March 31) 5,430,041
 216
 39.83
2017 (April 1 - June 30, 2017) 3,456,711
 135
 39.05
2017 (July 1 - September 30, 2017) 1,847,901
 $80
 43.29
2017 (October 1 - through November 2, 2017) 533,618
 $20
 37.48
Total 2017 11,268,271
 451
 40.05
Cumulative repurchases since the beginning of 2013 79,911,478
 2,166
 27.11


    
TheOn May 2, 2024, AGL’s Board of Directors (the Board) authorized on November 1, 2017,the repurchase of an additional $300 million of share repurchases. The total remaining capacity for share repurchases underits common shares. As of May 7, 2024, the BoardCompany was authorized to purchase $414 million of Directors authorizations was $398 million as of November 2, 2017.its common shares. The Company expects to repurchase shares from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The timing, form and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including funds available at the parent company, other potential uses for such funds, market conditions, the Company'sCompany’s capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board of Directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.



Share Repurchases
Deferred Compensation    
PeriodNumber of Shares RepurchasedTotal Payments (1)
(in millions)
Average Price Paid Per Share (1)
2023 (January 1 - March 31)36,369 $$62.23 
2023 (April 1 - June 30)453,942 24 53.08 
2023 (July 1- September 30)1,065,902 64 59.67 
2023 (October 1- December 31)1,659,680 109 65.83 
Total 20233,215,893 $199 $61.95 
2024 (January 1 - March 31)1,539,278 129 84.07 
2024 (April 1 - May 7)750,280 61 80.70 
Total 20242,289,558 $190 $82.96 
____________________
(1)    Excludes commissions and excise taxes.

62

Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited), Continued
13.    Earnings Per Share
 
The Company used a portionComputation of its share repurchase program to repurchase 297,131 common shares from its Chief Executive Officer and 23,062 common shares from its General Counsel on January 6, 2017. The shares were purchased at the closing priceEarnings Per Share
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions, except per share amounts)
Basic Earnings Per Share (EPS):
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL$109 $81 
Less: Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to nonvested shareholders— 
Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to common shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries, basic$108 $81 
Basic shares55.6 59.1 
Basic EPS$1.94 $1.37 
Diluted EPS:
Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to common shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries, basic$108 $81 
Plus: Re-allocation of undistributed income (loss) available to nonvested shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries— — 
Distributed and undistributed income (loss) available to common shareholders of AGL and subsidiaries, diluted$108 $81 
Basic shares55.6 59.1 
Dilutive securities:
Restricted stock awards1.5 1.3 
Diluted shares57.1 60.4 
Diluted EPS$1.89 $1.34 
Potentially dilutive securities excluded from computation of EPS because of antidilutive effect0.1 0.1 

63

Table of a common share of the Company on the New York Stock Exchange on January 6, 2017. Separately, these officers also received 297,131 and 23,062 common shares, respectively, on January 6, 2017 in settlement of 297,131 share units and 23,062 share units held by them in the employer stock fund of the Assured Guaranty Ltd. Supplemental Employee Retirement Plan (the AGL SERP). The distribution of shares occurred in January 2017 pursuant to the terms of an amendment adopted in 2011 to the AGL SERP. Such amendment was adopted to comply with requirements of Section 409A of the Code and Section 457A of the Code, which required all grandfathered amounts (within the meaning of Section 457A of the Code), including the units in the employer stock fund in the AGL SERP, to be included in the income of the applicable participant no later than 2017.Contents




18.Subsidiary Information
The following tables present the condensed consolidating financial information for AGUS and AGMH, 100%-owned subsidiaries of AGL, which have issued publicly traded debt securities (please refer to Note 15, Long Term Debt and Credit Facilities). The information for AGL, AGUS and AGMH presents its subsidiaries on the equity method of accounting. The following tables reflect transfers of businesses between entities within the consolidated group that occurred in the current reporting period consistently for all prior periods presented.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING BALANCE SHEET
AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2017
(in millions)

 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
ASSETS 
  
  
  
  
  
Total investment portfolio and cash$47
 $143
 $24
 $11,776
 $(327) $11,663
Investment in subsidiaries6,799
 6,257
 4,216
 208
 (17,480) 
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
 
 
 1,076
 (154) 922
Ceded unearned premium reserve
 
 
 1,009
 (901) 108
Deferred acquisition costs
 
 
 150
 (45) 105
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
 
 
 394
 (355) 39
Credit derivative assets
 
 
 50
 (47) 3
Deferred tax asset, net
 76
 
 153
 (94) 135
Intercompany receivable
 
 
 70
 (70) 
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets, at fair value
 
 
 707
 
 707
Dividend receivable from affiliate25
 
 
 
 (25) 
Other22
 28
 51
 1,100
 (234) 967
TOTAL ASSETS$6,893
 $6,504
 $4,291
 $16,693
 $(19,732) $14,649
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY 
  
  
  
  
  
Unearned premium reserves$
 $
 $
 $4,565
 $(968) $3,597
Loss and LAE reserve
 
 
 1,646
 (320) 1,326
Long-term debt
 843
 459
 8
 (18) 1,292
Intercompany payable
 70
 
 300
 (370) 
Credit derivative liabilities
 
 
 352
 (47) 305
Deferred tax liabilities, net
 
 87
 
 (87) 
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities, at fair value
 
 
 768
 
 768
Dividend payable to affiliate
 25
 
 
 (25) 
Other15
 19
 22
 815
 (388) 483
TOTAL LIABILITIES15
 957
 568
 8,454
 (2,223) 7,771
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY ATTRIBUTABLE TO ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.6,878
 5,547
 3,723
 8,031
 (17,301) 6,878
Noncontrolling interest
 
 
 208
 (208) 
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY6,878
 5,547
 3,723
 8,239
 (17,509) 6,878
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY$6,893
 $6,504
 $4,291
 $16,693
 $(19,732) $14,649

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING BALANCE SHEET
ASITEM 2.    MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF DECEMBER 31, 2016
(in millions)
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
ASSETS 
  
  
  
  
  
Total investment portfolio and cash$36
 $384
 $22
 $11,029
 $(368) $11,103
Investment in subsidiaries6,164
 5,696
 3,799
 296
 (15,955) 
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
 
 
 699
 (123) 576
Ceded unearned premium reserve
 
 
 1,099
 (893) 206
Deferred acquisition costs
 
 
 156
 (50) 106
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
 
 
 484
 (404) 80
Credit derivative assets
 
 
 69
 (56) 13
Deferred tax asset, net
 16
 
 597
 (116) 497
Intercompany receivable
 
 
 70
 (70) 
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets, at fair value
 
 
 876
 
 876
Dividend receivable from affiliate300






 (300) 
Other11
 78
 26
 801
 (222) 694
TOTAL ASSETS$6,511
 $6,174
 $3,847
 $16,176
 $(18,557) $14,151
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY 
  
  
  
  
  
Unearned premium reserves$
 $
 $
 $4,488
 $(977) $3,511
Loss and LAE reserve
 
 
 1,596
 (469) 1,127
Long-term debt
 843
 453
 10
 
 1,306
Intercompany payable
 70
 
 300
 (370) 
Credit derivative liabilities
 
 
 458
 (56) 402
Deferred tax liabilities, net
 
 88
 
 (88) 
Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities, at fair value
 
 
 958
 
 958
Dividend payable to affiliate
 300
 
 
 (300) 
Other7
 3
 14
 665
 (346) 343
TOTAL LIABILITIES7
 1,216
 555
 8,475
 (2,606) 7,647
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY ATTRIBUTABLE TO ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.6,504
 4,958
 3,292
 7,405
 (15,655) 6,504
Noncontrolling interest
 
 
 296
 (296) 
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY6,504
 4,958
 3,292
 7,701
 (15,951) 6,504
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY$6,511
 $6,174
 $3,847
 $16,176
 $(18,557) $14,151






CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENTFINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2017
(in millions)

 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
REVENUES 
  
  
  
  
  
Net earned premiums$
 $
 $
 $190
 $(4) $186
Net investment income0
 0
 0
 101
 (2) 99
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 0
 0
 (9) 16
 7
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:           
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
 
 (1) 0
 (1)
Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
 
 59
 
 59
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
 
 58
 0
 58
Other3
 
 
 302
 (32) 273
TOTAL REVENUES3
 0
 0
 642
 (22) 623
EXPENSES 
  
  
  
  
  
Loss and LAE
 
 
 250
 (27) 223
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
 
 8
 (3) 5
Interest expense
 12
 13
 3
 (4) 24
Other operating expenses10
 1
 0
 91
 (44) 58
TOTAL EXPENSES10
 13
 13
 352
 (78) 310
INCOME (LOSS) BEFORE INCOME TAXES AND EQUITY IN NET EARNINGS OF SUBSIDIARIES(7) (13) (13) 290
 56
 313
Total (provision) benefit for income taxes
 4
 4
 (94) (19) (105)
Equity in net earnings of subsidiaries215
 237
 178
 8
 (638) 
NET INCOME (LOSS)$208
 $228
 $169
 $204
 $(601) $208
Less: noncontrolling interest
 
 
 8
 (8) 
NET INCOME (LOSS) ATTRIBUTABLE TO ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.$208
 $228
 $169
 $196
 $(593) $208
            
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)$219
 $237
 $178
 $274
 $(689) $219


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
(in millions)

 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
REVENUES 
  
  
  
  
  
Net earned premiums$
 $
 $
 $239
 $(8) $231
Net investment income0
 0
 0
 95
 (1) 94
Net realized investment gains (losses)0
 3
 0
 (2) (3) (2)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:           
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
 
 15
 0
 15
Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
 
 6
 
 6
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
 
 21
 0
 21
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationship
 
 
 257
 2
 259
Other0
 
 
 (37) 
 (37)
TOTAL REVENUES0
 3
 0
 573
 (10) 566
EXPENSES 
  
  
  
  
  
Loss and LAE
 
 
 (15) 6
 (9)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
 
 9
 (5) 4
Interest expense
 13
 13
 3
 (3) 26
Other operating expenses7
 1
 1
 58
 (2) 65
TOTAL EXPENSES7
 14
 14
 55
 (4) 86
INCOME (LOSS) BEFORE INCOME TAXES AND EQUITY IN NET EARNINGS OF SUBSIDIARIES(7) (11) (14) 518
 (6) 480
Total (provision) benefit for income taxes
 4
 5
 (13) 3
 (1)
Equity in net earnings of subsidiaries486
 433
 82
 11
 (1,012) 
NET INCOME (LOSS)$479
 $426
 $73
 $516
 $(1,015) $479
Less: noncontrolling interest
 
 
 11
 (11) 
NET INCOME (LOSS) ATTRIBUTABLE TO ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.$479
 $426
 $73
 $505
 $(1,004) $479
            
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)$454
 $414
 $51
 $497
 $(962) $454



CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2017
(in millions)

 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
REVENUES 
  
  
  
  
  
Net earned premiums$
 $
 $
 $523
 $(11) $512
Net investment income0
 1
 0
 325
 (4) 322
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 0
 0
 53
 1
 54
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:           
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
 
 19
 0
 19
Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
 
 87
 
 87
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
 
 106
 0
 106
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
 
 
 58
 0
 58
Other8
 
 
 527
 (129) 406
TOTAL REVENUES8
 1
 0
 1,592
 (143) 1,458
EXPENSES 
  
  
  
  
  
Loss and LAE
 
 
 301
 53
 354
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
 
 19
 (6) 13
Interest expense
 36
 40
 8
 (11) 73
Other operating expenses30
 8
 1
 286
 (142) 183
TOTAL EXPENSES30
 44
 41
 614
 (106) 623
INCOME (LOSS) BEFORE INCOME TAXES AND EQUITY IN NET EARNINGS OF SUBSIDIARIES(22) (43) (41) 978
 (37) 835
Total (provision) benefit for income taxes
 13
 15
 (194) 9
 (157)
Equity in net earnings of subsidiaries700
 574
 422
 22
 (1,718) 
NET INCOME (LOSS)$678
 $544
 $396
 $806
 $(1,746) $678
Less: noncontrolling interest
 
 
 22
 (22) 
NET INCOME (LOSS) ATTRIBUTABLE TO ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.$678
 $544
 $396
 $784
 $(1,724) $678
            
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)$855
 $705
 $484
 $1,004
 $(2,193) $855

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
(in millions)

 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
REVENUES 
  
  
  
  
  
Net earned premiums$
 $
 $
 $653
 $(25) $628
Net investment income0
 0
 0
 293
 (2) 291
Net realized investment gains (losses)0
 3
 0
 (4) (4) (5)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:           
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
 
 47
 
 47
Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
 
 (23) 
 (23)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
 
 24
 
 24
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationship
 
 
 257
 2
 259
Other0
 0
 0
 10
 0
 10
TOTAL REVENUES0
 3
 0
 1,233
 (29) 1,207
EXPENSES 
  
  
  
  
  
Loss and LAE
 
 
 182
 1
 183
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
 
 23
 (10) 13
Interest expense
 39
 40
 8
 (10) 77
Other operating expenses23
 1
 2
 165
 (3) 188
TOTAL EXPENSES23
 40
 42
 378
 (22) 461
INCOME (LOSS) BEFORE INCOME TAXES AND EQUITY IN NET EARNINGS OF SUBSIDIARIES(23) (37) (42) 855
 (7) 746
Total (provision) benefit for income taxes
 13
 15
 (94) 4
 (62)
Equity in net earnings of subsidiaries707
 623
 272
 34
 (1,636) 
NET INCOME (LOSS)$684
 $599
 $245
 $795
 $(1,639) $684
Less: noncontrolling interest
 
 
 34
 (34) 
NET INCOME (LOSS) ATTRIBUTABLE TO ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.$684
 $599
 $245
 $761
 $(1,605) $684
            
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)$805
 $660
 $261
 $923
 $(1,844) $805


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2017
(in millions)
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities$503
 $175
 $105
 $469
 $(898) $354
Cash flows from investing activities 
  
  
  
  
  
Fixed-maturity securities: 
  
  
  
  
  
Purchases
 (75) (15) (1,552) 27
 (1,615)
Sales
 112
 12
 1,004
 
 1,128
Maturities
 7
 0
 682
 
 689
Sales (purchases) of short-term investments, net(11) 218
 3
 (450) 
 (240)
Net proceeds from financial guaranty variable entities’ assets
 
 
 117
 
 117
Investment in subsidiaries
 (28) 
 (69) 97
 
Proceeds from sale of subsidiaries
 
 
 139
 (139) 
Acquisition of MBIA UK, net of cash acquired
 
 
 95
 
 95
Other
 
 
 58
 
 58
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities(11) 234
 
 24
 (15) 232
Cash flows from financing activities 
  
  
  
  
  
Return of capital
 
 
 (70) 70
 
Capital contribution
 
 25
 3
 (28) 
Dividends paid(53) (390) (128) (380) 898
 (53)
Repurchases of common stock(431) 
 
 
 
 (431)
Repurchases of common stock to pay withholding taxes(13) 
 
 
 
 (13)
Net paydowns of financial guaranty variable entities’ liabilities
 
 
 (124) 
 (124)
Repayment/ extinguishment of long-term debt
 
 
 (2) (27) (29)
Proceeds from options exercises5
 
 
 
 
 5
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities(492) (390) (103) (573) 913
 (645)
Effect of exchange rate changes
 
 
 4
 
 4
Increase (decrease) in cash and restricted cash0
 19
 2
 (76) 
 (55)
Cash and restricted cash at beginning of period0
 1
 0
 126
 
 127
Cash and restricted cash at end of period$0
 $20
 $2
 $50
 $
 $72


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
(in millions)
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Parent)
 
AGUS
(Issuer)
 
AGMH
(Issuer)
 
Other
Entities
 
Consolidating
Adjustments
 
Assured
Guaranty Ltd.
(Consolidated)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities$288
 $171
 $159
 $3
 $(810) $(189)
Cash flows from investing activities 
  
  
  
  
  
Fixed-maturity securities: 
  
  
  
  
  
Purchases(4) (44) (10) (970) 
 (1,028)
Sales4
 
 12
 861
 
 877
Maturities
 23
 
 838
 
 861
Sales (purchases) of short-term investments, net(49) (3) (1) 133
 
 80
Net proceeds from financial guaranty variable entities’ assets
 
 
 590
 
 590
Investment in subsidiaries
 
 
 4
 (4) 
Acquisition of CIFG, net of cash acquired
 
 
 (442) 7
 (435)
Other
 7
 
 (12) (7) (12)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities(49) (17) 1
 1,002
 (4) 933
Cash flows from financing activities 
  
  
  
  
  
Return of capital
 
 
 (4) 4
 
Dividends paid(52) (223) (158) (429) 810
 (52)
Repurchases of common stock(190) 
 
 
 
 (190)
Share repurchases to pay withholding taxes

(2) 
 
 
 
 (2)
Net paydowns of financial guaranty variable entities’ liabilities
 
 
 (567) 
 (567)
Payment of long-term debt
 
 
 (2) 
 (2)
Proceeds from options exercises

6
 
 
 
 
 6
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities(238)
(223)
(158)
(1,002)
814

(807)
Effect of exchange rate changes
 
 
 (4) 
 (4)
Increase (decrease) in cash and restricted cash1
 (69) 2
 (1) 
 (67)
Cash and restricted cash at beginning of period0
 95
 8
 63
 
 166
Cash and restricted cash at end of period$1
 $26
 $10
 $62
 $
 $99




ITEM 2.MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Forward Looking Statements


This Form 10-Q contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future events of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL) and its subsidiaries (collectively with AGL, Assured Guaranty or the Company). These statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and relate to future operating or financial performance.
 
Any or all of Assured Guaranty’s forward looking statements herein are based on current expectations and the current economic environment and may turn out to be incorrect. Assured Guaranty’s actual results may vary materially.materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. Among factors that could cause actual results to differ adversely are:


significant changes in inflation, interest rates, the world’s credit markets or segments thereof, credit spreads, foreign exchange rates or general economic conditions, including the possibility of a recession or stagflation;
geopolitical risk, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and risk of intentional or accidental escalation between The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia, conflict in the Middle East, confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program, United States (U.S.) – China strategic competition and pursuit of technological independence;
global terrorism risk with threats increasing from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia, and the polarized political environment of the 2024 U.S. presidential election;
the impacts of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other technological advances, including potentially increasing the risks of malicious cyber attacks, dissemination of misinformation, and disruption of markets;
the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, payment defaults on the debt of the U.S. government or instruments issued, insured or guaranteed by related institutions, agencies or instrumentalities, and downgrades to their credit ratings;
public health crises, including pandemics and endemics, and the governmental and private actions taken in response to such events;
developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, including stresses in the financial condition of banking institutions in the U.S. and the possibility that increasing participation of unregulated financial institutions in these markets results in losses or lower valuations of assets, reduced liquidity and credit and/or contraction of these markets, that adversely affect repayment rates of insured obligors, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, or investments of Assured Guaranty;
reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty'sGuaranty’s insurance;
the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or liquidity claims on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures;
insured losses, including losses with respect to related legal proceedings, in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures, including as a result of the final resolution of Assured Guaranty’s Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority exposure or the amounts recovered on securities received in connection with the resolution of Puerto Rico exposures already resolved;
the impact of Assured Guaranty satisfying its obligations under insurance policies with respect to legacy insured Puerto Rico bonds;
increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry, nonpayment insurance and other forms of capital saving or risk syndication available to banks and insurers;
the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for its investment portfolio, including alternative investments, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to reduced liquidity at a time it requires liquidity, or to other negative or unanticipated consequences;
the impacts of Assured Guaranty’s transactions with Sound Point Capital Management, LP (Sound Point, LP) and certain of its investment management affiliates (together with Sound Point, LP, Sound Point) and/or Assured Healthcare Partners LLC (AHP) on Assured Guaranty and its relationships with its shareholders, regulators, rating agencies, employees and the obligors it insures and on the asset management business contributed to Sound Point, LP and on the business of AHP and their relationships with their respective clients and employees;
64

the possibility that strategic transactions made by Assured Guaranty, including the consummation of the transactions with Sound Point and/or AHP, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to negative consequences;
the inability to control the business, management or policies of entities in which Assured Guaranty holds a minority interest;
the impact of market volatility on the fair value of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, contracts accounted for as derivatives, its committed capital securities, its consolidated investment vehicles and certain consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs);
rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its insurance subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL'sAGL’s insurance subsidiaries have insured;
developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates, Assured Guaranty’s loss experience, or its exposure to refinancing risk in transactions (which could result in substantial liquidity claims on its guarantees);
the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures;
the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates;
increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry;
rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty’s investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty;
the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms;
changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions;
the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form;
changes in applicable accounting policies or practices;
changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions;
the impact of changes in the world’s economy and credit and currency markets and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the United Kingdom (U.K.) to exit the European Union (EU);
the possibility that acquisitions or alternative investments made by Assured Guaranty do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences;
deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty’s reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements;
difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy;

loss of key personnel;
the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures;
natural or man-made catastrophes;
the impact of climate change on Assured Guaranty’s business and regulatory actions taken related to such risk;
other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC)(SEC);
other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and
management’s response to these factors.

The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive, and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included in this Form 10-Q, as well as the risk factors included in AGL's 2016the Company’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law. Investors are advised, however, to consult any further disclosures the Company makes on related subjects in the Company’s reports filed with the SEC.
 
If one or more of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the Company’s underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from what the Company projected. Any forward looking statements in this Form 10-Q reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and are subject to these and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to its operations, results of operations, growth strategy and liquidity.
 
For these statements, the Company claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the Securities(Securities Act), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange(Exchange Act).


Available Information
 
The Company maintains an Internetinternet web site at www.assuredguaranty.com. The Company makes available, free of charge, on its web site (under assuredguaranty.com/www.assuredguaranty.com/sec-filings) the Company's annual reportCompany’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, quarterly reportsQuarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, current reportsCurrent Reports on Form 8-K, and amendments to those reports filed or furnished pursuant to Section 13 (a) or 15 (d) of the Exchange Act as soon as reasonably practicable after the Company files such material with, or furnishes it to, the SEC. The Company also makes available, free of charge, through its web site (under assuredguaranty.com/www.assuredguaranty.com/governance) links to the Company'sCompany’s Corporate Governance Guidelines, itsthe Company’s Global Code of Conduct, AGL'sEthics, AGL’s Bye-Laws and the charters for the committees of its Board committees.of Directors. In addition, the SEC maintains a web site (at www.sec.gov) that contains reports, proxy and information statements, and other information regarding issuers that file electronically with the SEC.


The Company routinely posts important information for investors on its web site (under assuredguaranty.com/www.assuredguaranty.com/company-statements and, more generally, under the Investor Information tab at www.assuredguaranty.com/investor-informationand Businesses pages)tab at www.assuredguaranty.com/businesses). The Company also maintains a social media account on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/company/assured-guaranty/). The Company uses thisits web site and may use its social media account as a means of disclosing material information and for complying with its disclosure obligations under SEC Regulation FD (Fair Disclosure). Accordingly, investors should monitor the Company Statements, Investor Information and Businesses portions of
65

the Company'sCompany’s web site as well as the Company’s social media account on LinkedIn, in addition to following the Company'sCompany’s press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, presentations and webcasts.


The information contained on, or that may be accessed through, the Company'sCompany’s web site or social media account is not incorporated by reference into, and is not a part of, this report.


Executive SummaryOverview

This executive summary
Business

The Company reports its results of management’s discussionoperations in two distinct segments, Insurance and analysis highlights selected informationAsset Management, consistent with the manner in which the Company’s chief operating decision maker reviews the business to assess performance and may not contain allallocate resources. The Company’s Corporate division and other activities (including financial guaranty VIEs (FG VIEs) and consolidated investment vehicles (CIVs)) are presented separately.

In the Insurance segment, the Company provides credit protection products to the U.S. and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. Until July 1, 2023, the Company served as investment advisor to collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and opportunity funds, through Assured Investment Management LLC (AssuredIM LLC) and its investment management affiliates (together with AssuredIM LLC, AssuredIM). Beginning July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation.

The Corporate division consists primarily of interest expense on the information that is important to readersdebt of this Quarterly Report. For a more detailed description of events, trendsAssured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and uncertainties,Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) (the U.S. Holding Companies), as well as other operating expenses attributed to holding company activities, including administrative services performed by certain subsidiaries for the capital, liquidity, credit, operationalholding companies. Other activities include the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and market risksCIVs (FG VIE and the critical accounting policies and estimates affecting the Company, this Quarterly Report should be read in its entirety and in addition to AGL's 2016 Annual Report on Form 10-K.CIV consolidation). See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 2, Segment Information.




Economic Environment

The Company believes reported statistics indicate that positive economic momentumReal gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.6% in the United States (U.S.) since the beginning of 2016 has continued through the three-month period ended September 30, 2017 (Third Quarter 2017)March 31, 2024 (first quarter 2024), compared to an increase of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the first quarter 2024 advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. At the end of March 2024, the U.S. unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, stood at 3.8%, near where it started the year at 3.7%. The Company believes a more robust economy makes it less likely that obligors whose obligations it guarantees will default.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS), for the months of July through September 2017, the U.S. economy added an estimated 274 thousand jobs. Additionally, the BLS estimated that the seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in September 2017, down from 4.4% at the end of the second quarter of 2017 and 4.5% at the end of the first quarter of 2017, and was lower than the May 2017 unemployment figure of 4.3%, which was already a 16-year low. The BLS’ analysis of the net effect of the hurricanes was to reduce the estimate of total non-farm payroll employment for September, while having no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017, more than double the annualizedinflation rate in the first quarter of 2017. This representsU.S. before seasonal adjustment for the thirteenth consecutive quarter of positive growth in real GDP.

U.S. home prices also continued to rise,12-month period ending March 2024, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National HomeConsumer Price Index whichfor All Urban Consumers, was 3.5%, as compared to 3.4% for the 12-month period ending December 2023. According to the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs was 3.8% for the 12 months to March 2024, down from 4.2% for the 12 months ended December 2023. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. increases reported net par outstanding for certain U.K exposures with approximately $22.7 billion of net par outstanding as of March 31, 2024, and also increases projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least a portion of the premium on an annual gain in Julyinstallment basis over the term of 5.9% while the 20-City Composite posted a 5.8% year-over-year gain.exposure.


At the September 20, 2017 meeting ofWith the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), acknowledging the need to combat inflation, in March 2022 the FOMC maintainedbegan again raising the target range for the federal funds rate between 1.00% and 1.25%, and reiterated its prior positionstated that additional rate hikes were very likely in 2018, with one also possible at the end of this year. The FOMC announced that in October 2017 it planned to begin the balance sheet normalization program that was outlined in June, reducingwould reduce its holdings in a gradualof treasury securities and predictable manner. Theagency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. From March 2022 through July 2023, the FOMC pointed again to sustained strength in the labor market, increased household spending, and expanded business investments as the primary drivers to increaseraised the federal funds rate going forward.from a range of 0% to 0.25% where it started 2022 to a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC has repeatedly declared that it seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. In its statement,determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the FOMC notedindicated that it will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic growthactivity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. Since its July 2023 meeting, the FOMC has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%, including through its most recent meeting held April 30-May 1, 2024, stating that it would continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.

66

The level and direction of interest rates and credit spreads impact the Company in numerous ways. On the one hand, higher interest rates may reduce the fair value of fixed-maturity securities currently held in the Third Quarter was held backCompany’s investment portfolio, dampen municipal bond issuance and negatively impact the finances of some of the obligors whose payments the Company insures. On the other hand, higher interest rates increase the base on which the Company charges premium in most U.S. municipal bond transactions. Higher interest rates also are often accompanied by wider spreads, which may also increase the severe economic disruptions caused by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma,level of premiums it can charge for those products.

The 30-year AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) rate is a measure of interest rates in the Company’s largest financial guaranty insurance market, U.S. public finance. The MMD rate averaged 3.57% for the quarter ended March 2024, lower than the 4.06% average for the quarter ended December 2023, but higher than the 3.37% average for the quarter ended March 2023. Meanwhile, the difference, or credit spread, between the 30-year BBB-rated general obligation relative to the 30-year AAA MMD averaged 92 basis points (bps) in the quarter ended March 2024, which is narrower than the 100 bps average for the quarter ended December 2023, and Maria, but noted that growth would likely bounce back as economic activity resumes and rebuilding begins. Please refer to Part I, Item I, Financial Statements, Note 4, Outstanding Exposure and Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid,narrower than the 101 bps average for information on the effects of these hurricanes on the Company's Puerto Rico and other Caribbean exposures.

quarter ended March 2023. The Company believes that, continued increases in stock prices during the quarter are also indicative of positive economic momentum in the U.S.. U.S. stocks reached record highs, as investors anticipate another strong earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nasdaq compositeover time, wider spreads could permit it to increase its premium rates on new business, and the S&P 500 Index all set records highs during the quarter, with the DJIA recently touching 23,000 for the first time, and corporate earnings for the S&P S&P 500 Index remaining strong for three quarters in a row.

Average municipalhigher interest rates remained relatively low by historical standards, but above the lows experienced in 2016, when 30-year AAA MMD rates were at times below 2%. Since July 2016, the 30-year AAA MMD rate increased from a low of 1.95% to as high as 3.06% on May 2, 2017, still low by historical standards. Since then, that MMD rate has declined to 2.84% as of September 29, 2017.


Financial Performance of Assured Guaranty

Financial Results
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Net income (loss)$208
 $479
 $678
 $684
Operating income (non-GAAP)(1)156
 497
 570
 756
Gain (loss) related to the effect of consolidating FG VIEs (FG VIE consolidation) included in operating income(1) (11) 9
 (4)
        
Net income (loss) per diluted share$1.72
 $3.60
 $5.48
 $5.06
Operating income per share (non-GAAP)(1)1.29
 3.74
 4.62
 5.61
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in operating income per share(0.01) (0.09) 0.08
 (0.03)
        
Diluted shares120.7
 132.8
 123.5
 134.9
        
Gross written premiums (GWP)$45
 $16
 $235
 $71
Present value of new business production (PVP)(1)43
 50
 212
 129
Gross par written3,417
 4,687
 13,248
 12,211
 As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
 Amount Per Share Amount Per Share
 (in millions, except per share amounts)
Shareholders' equity$6,878
 $58.32
 $6,504
 $50.82
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity(1)6,590
 55.87
 6,386
 49.89
Non-GAAP adjusted book value(1)8,820
 74.78
 8,506
 66.46
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity3
 0.01
 (7) (0.06)
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value(13) (0.11) (24) (0.18)
Common shares outstanding (2)117.9
   128.0
  
____________________
(1)Please refer to “—Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for a definition of the financial measures that were not determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, if available. Please note that the Company changed its definition of Operating Income (non-GAAP), Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders' Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value starting in fourth quarter 2016 in response to new non-GAAP guidance issued by the SEC in 2016. Please refer to “—Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for additional details.
(2)Please refer to "Key Business Strategies – Capital Management" below for information on common share repurchases.

Several primary drivers of volatility in net income or loss are not necessarily indicative of credit impairment or improvement, or ultimate economic gains or losses: changes in credit spreads of insured credit derivative obligations, changes in fair value of assets and liabilities of financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIEs) and committed capital securities (CCS), changes in the Company's own credit spreads, and changes in risk-free rates used to discount expected losses. Changes in credit spreads generally have the most significant effect on the fair value of credit derivatives and FG VIE assets and liabilities. In addition to non-economic factors, other factors such as: changes in expected losses,may also increase the amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity securities.

Additionally, the Company believes that higher interest rates are discouraging some homeowners from moving as many are locked into lower mortgage interest rates at the homes in which they reside, which, in turn, is restricting housing inventory and timingleading to an increase in home prices as demand outpaces supply. The increase in housing prices may benefit distressed residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) the Company insures. The National Association of refunding transactions and terminations, realized gains and losses onRealtors reported that year-over-year existing-home sales declined 3.7% from March 2023 to March 2024, while the investment portfolio (including other-than-temporary impairments), the effects of large settlements and transactions, acquisitions, and the effects of the Company's various loss mitigation strategies, among others, may also have a significant effect on reported net income or loss in a given reporting period. median existing-home sales price increased 4.8% from March 2023 ($375,300) to March 2024 ($393,500).



Third Quarter 2017
Net income for Third Quarter 2017 was $208 million compared with $479 million in the three-month period ended September 30, 2016 (Third Quarter 2016). Net income in both Third Quarter 2017 and Third Quarter 2016 included significant gains attributable to our strategic initiatives. Third Quarter 2017 includes pretax commutation gains of $255 million related to the reassumption of previously ceded contracts (recorded in other income). Third Quarter 2016 included a pretax gain of $259 million related to the acquisition of CIFG Holding Inc. (together with its subsidiaries CIFGH) (CIFG Acquisition). Excluding these gains, net income decreased due mainly to increased loss and adjustment expenses (LAE) attributable to U.S. public finance losses and lower net earned premiums from refundings and terminations.
The Company reported operating income (non-GAAP) of $156 million in Third Quarter 2017, compared with $497 million in Third Quarter 2016. The variances in operating income (non-GAAP) are attributable to the same items described for net income.
Nine Months 2017

Net income for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2017 (Nine Months 2017) was $678 million compared with $684 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2016 (Nine Months 2016). Net income in both Nine Months 2017 and Nine Months 2016 also included significant gains attributable to our strategic initiatives. Nine Months 2017 includes pretax commutation gains of $328 million and a pretax gain of $58 million on the acquisition of MBIA UK Insurance Limited (MBIA UK) (MBIA UK Acquisition). Nine Months 2016 includes pretax gains of $259 million on the CIFG Acquisition. Excluding these gains, net income decreased due mainly to increased loss and adjustment expenses (LAE) attributable to U.S. public finance losses and lower net earned premiums from refundings and terminations.

The Company reported operating income (non-GAAP) of $570 million in Nine Months 2017, compared with $756 million in Nine Months 2016. The variances in operating income (non-GAAP) are attributable to the same items described for net income.

Shareholders' equity increased since December 31, 2016 due primarily to positive net income (including the effect of MBIA UK Acquisition) and higher net unrealized gains on available for sale investment securities recorded in accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI), partially offset by share repurchases and dividends. Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity and non-GAAP adjusted book value also increased since December 31, 2016 due primarily to the MBIA UK Acquisition, new business production and commutations, offset in part by loss development, share repurchases and dividends. Shareholders' equity per share, non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity per share and non-GAAP adjusted book value per share benefited from the repurchase program that has been in place since the beginning of 2013.

Key Business Strategies

The Company continually evaluates its business strategies. Currently, the Companystrategies and is currently pursuing the followingkey business strategies each described in more detail below:three areas: (i) insurance; (ii) asset management and alternative investments; and (iii) capital management.


NewInsurance

The Company seeks to grow the insurance business through new business production, acquisitions of legacy financial guarantors or reinsurance of their insured portfolios, and to continue to mitigate losses in its current insured portfolio.
Capital management
Alternative strategiesGrowth of the Insured Portfolio

The Company seeks to create value, includinggrow its financial guaranty insurance portfolio through acquisitions, investmentsnew business production in each of its markets: public finance (including infrastructure) and commutations
Loss mitigation

New Business Production

structured finance. The Company believes high-profile defaults by municipal obligors, such as Puerto Rico, Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California as well as events such as the COVID-19 pandemic have led to increased awareness of the value of bond insurance and stimulated demand for the product. The Company believes there will be continued demand for its insurance in this market because, for those exposures that the Company guarantees, it undertakes the tasks of credit selection, analysis, negotiation of terms, surveillance and, if necessary, loss mitigation. The Company believes that its insurance:

(i) encourages retail investors, who typically have fewer resources than the Company for analyzing municipal bonds, to purchase such bonds;
(ii) enables institutional investors to operate more efficiently; and
(iii) allows smaller, less well-known issuers to gain market access on a more cost-effective basis.



On the other hand, the persistentlyThe low interest rate environment hasand tight U.S. municipal credit spreads from when the financial crisis began in 2008 through early 2020 dampened demand for bond insurance and, aftercompared to the levels before the financial crisis. After the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, credit spreads initially widened as a numberresult of years in whichmarket concerns about the Company was essentiallyimpact of the only financial guarantor, there is now one other financial guarantor active in one of its markets.

U.S. Municipal Market Data and Penetration Rates (1)
BasedCOVID-19 pandemic on Sale Date
 Nine Months 2017 Nine Months 2016 Year Ended December 31, 2016
 (dollars in billions, except number of issues and percent)
Par:     
New municipal bonds issued$271.6
 $323.3
 $423.7
Total insured$16.8
 $18.5
 $25.3
Insured by Assured Guaranty$9.8
 $10.1
 $14.2
Number of issues:     
New municipal bonds issued7,583
 9,489
 12,271
Total insured1,242
 1,404
 1,889
Insured by Assured Guaranty634
 672
 904
Market penetration based on:     
Par6.2% 5.7% 6.0%
Number of issues16.4% 14.8% 15.4%
Single A par sold26.9% 23.1% 22.6%
Single A transactions sold59.5% 55.1% 55.8%
$25 million and under par sold20.0% 17.1% 17.8%
$25 million and under transactions sold19.0% 16.9% 17.5%
____________________
(1)    Source: Thomson Reuters.


Gross Written Premiums and
New Business Production

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
GWP       
Public Finance—U.S.$37
 $24
 $132
 $72
Public Finance—non-U.S.8
 (9) 92
 6
Structured Finance—U.S.1
 1
 3
 (5)
Structured Finance—non-U.S.(1) 0
 8
 (2)
Total GWP$45
 $16
 $235
 $71
        
PVP (1):       
Public Finance—U.S.$39
 $25
 $137
 $89
Public Finance—non-U.S.4
 2
 58
 16
Structured Finance—U.S. (2)0
 23
 5
 24
Structured Finance—non-U.S. (3)
 
 12
 
Total PVP$43
 $50
 $212
 $129
Gross Par Written (1):       
Public Finance—U.S.$3,328
 $3,459
 $11,590
 $10,574
Public Finance—non-U.S.89
 164
 1,260
 570
Structured Finance—U.S. (2)
 1,064
 243
 1,067
Structured Finance—non-U.S. (3)
 
 155
 
Total gross par written$3,417
 $4,687
 $13,248
 $12,211
____________________
(1)PVP and Gross Par Written in the table above are based on "close date," when the transaction settles. See “– Non-GAAP Financial Measures – PVP or Present Value of New Business Production.”
(2)    Includes capital relief triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance transactions written in 2017 and 2016.

(3)    Relates to reinsurance of aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) policies.
GWP include amounts collected upfront on new business written, the present value of future premiums on newsome municipal credits, thereby improving demand for financial guaranty business written (discounted at risk free rates), as well as the effects of changesinsurance even in the estimated lives of transactionsa low interest rate environment, before narrowing again in the inforce book of financial guaranty business.2022. The Company believes that, over time, wider credit spreads may improve demand for bond insurance.

Third Quarter 2017


In Third Quarter 2017, U.S. publiccertain segments of the infrastructure and structured finance GWP increased to $37 million from $24 million in Third Quarter 2016, due primarily to increased PVP. The increase in non-U.S. public finance GWP was due to higher new business production in Third Quarter 2017 than Third Quarter 2016 and changes in estimated lives in Third Quarter 2016 resulting in negative GWP.

U.S. public finance PVP increased in Third Quarter 2017 compared withmarkets, the comparable prior-year period due to higher par written in the secondary market. Assured Guaranty's secondary market PVP increased by more than four times compared to with Third Quarter 2016. Assured Guaranty once again guaranteed the majority of insured par issued while maintaining an A- average rating on new business written.

Outside the U.S., the Company generated $4 million of public finance PVP in Third Quarter 2017. The two transactions written in Third Quarter 2017 were secondary market guaranties of regulated utilities.

The Company believes its financial guaranty product is competitive with other financing options inoptions. For example, certain segmentsinvestors may receive advantageous capital requirement treatment with the addition of the infrastructure market.  Future business activity will be influenced by the typically long lead times for these types of transactions.


Structured finance transactions tend to have long lead times and may vary from period to period. In general, the Company expects that structured finance opportunities will increase in the future as the global economy recovers, interest rates rise, more issuers return to the capital markets for financings and institutional investors again utilize financial guaranties.Company’s guaranty. The Company considers its involvement in both infrastructure and structured finance and international infrastructure transactions to be beneficial because such transactions diversify both the Company'sCompany’s business opportunities and its risk profile beyond U.S. public finance. U.S. structured finance PVP in Third Quarter 2016 primarily comprised a structured capital relief Triple-X excessThe timing of loss life reinsurance transaction.

Nine Months 2017
GWP increased in Nine Months 2017 compared to Nine Months 2016 due to increased new business production in global public finance. the infrastructure and structured finance sectors is influenced by typically long lead times and therefore may vary from period to period.
67


U.S. Municipal Market Data and Bond Insurance Penetration Rates (1)
Based on Sale Date
 First Quarter 2024First Quarter 2023Year Ended December 31, 2023
 (dollars in billions, except number of issues and percentages)
Par:
New municipal bonds issued$99.1 $74.1 $362.8 
Total insured$7.1 $5.7 $31.8 
Insured by Assured Guaranty$3.8 $3.4 $19.5 
Number of issues:
New municipal bonds issued1,613 1,385 7,268 
Total insured318 260 1,397 
Insured by Assured Guaranty152 124 645 
Bond insurance market penetration based on:
Par7.2 %7.7 %8.8 %
Number of issues19.7 %18.8 %19.2 %
Single A par sold26.6 %38.3 %31.1 %
Single A transactions sold62.5 %63.3 %61.6 %
$25 million and under par sold23.0 %24.2 %24.6 %
$25 million and under transactions sold24.1 %22.3 %23.6 %
____________________
(1)    Source: The amounts in the table are those reported by Thomson Reuters. The table excludes Corporate-CUSIP transactions insured by Assured Guaranty, certain of which the Company also considers to be public finance PVP increased in Nine Months 2017 compared with the comparable prior year period duebusiness.

The Company also considers opportunities to higher par written in both the primary and secondary market, while maintaining an A- average rating onacquire financial guaranty portfolios, whether by acquiring financial guarantors that are no longer actively writing new business written. Outside the U.S.,or their insured portfolios, generally through reinsurance or novations. These transactions enable the Company generated $58 millionto improve its future earnings and deploy excess capital.

Loss Mitigation
In an effort to avoid, reduce or recover losses and potential losses in its insurance portfolio, the Company employs a number of strategies.
In the public finance PVP, compared with $16 million in Nine Months 2016. PVP generated outsidearea, the U.S. in Nine Months 2017 was derived from three university housing transactions, one hospital transaction, a senior liquidity guarantee providedCompany believes its experience and the resources it is prepared to deploy, as well as its ability to provide bond insurance or other contributions as part of a European infrastructure refinancing, and several secondary market regulated utility transactions. For Nine Months 2016, non-U.S.solution, result in more favorable outcomes in distressed public finance PVP was primarily derived from secondary market financial guarantees written on utility bonds and additional future premiums related tosituations than would be the case without its participation. This has been illustrated by the Company’s role in negotiating various agreements in connection with the restructuring of an existingobligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, as well as Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California. The Company will also, where appropriate, pursue litigation to enforce its rights. For example, the Company initiated a number of legal actions to enforce its rights with respect to obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

In 2022, as a result of the resolution of the Company’s exposure to insured obligation.Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions), the Company received cash, new general obligation bonds (New GO Bonds), new bonds backed by toll revenues (Toll Bonds, and together with New GO Bonds, New Recovery Bonds) and contingent value instruments (CVIs). The non-U.S. structured finance PVP in Nine Months 2017 relatedCVIs are intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries tied to the reinsuranceoutperformance of aircraft RVI policies.the Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax receipts against May 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, subject to annual and lifetime caps. The Company may sell in the future any CVIs it continues to hold. The Company continues to work to resolve its remaining unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico exposure, PREPA. For more information about developments in Puerto Rico and related recovery litigation being pursued by the Company, see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and the Insured Portfolio section below.


The Company is, and for several years has been, working with the servicers of some of the RMBS transactions it insures to encourage the servicers to provide alternatives to distressed borrowers that will encourage them to continue making payments on their loans to help improve the performance of the related RMBS.
68


The Company may also purchase attractively priced obligations, including below-investment-grade (BIG) obligations, that it has insured and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The fair value of Loss Mitigation Securities as of March 31, 2024 (excluding the value of the Company’s insurance) was $464 million.    

In some instances, the terms of the Company’s policy or the terms of certain workout orders and resolutions give it the option to pay principal on an accelerated basis on an obligation on which it has paid a claim, thereby reducing the amount of guaranteed interest due in the future. The Company has at times exercised this option, which uses cash but reduces projected future losses. The Company may also facilitate the issuance of refunding bonds, by either providing insurance on the refunding bonds or purchasing refunding bonds, or both. Refunding bonds may provide the issuer with payment relief.

Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Until July 1, 2023, the Company pursued its asset management strategy through AssuredIM. With the consummation of the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, effective as of July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point, and no longer directly manages investments for third parties. The Company’s ownership interest in Sound Point furthers its strategy of participating in a fee-based earnings stream independent of the risk-based premiums generated by its financial guaranty business. The Sound Point business was strengthened by the addition of AssuredIM’s assets under management (AUM) (excluding AUM relating to AHP). See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation, for a description of the Sound Point Transaction.

The Company expects its relationship with Sound Point to also enhance its alternative investment opportunities. Upon closing of the Sound Point Transaction and the AHP Transaction in July, the Company has increased the aggregate amount it has agreed to invest in alternative investments to $1.5 billion, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval. Of the $1.5 billion, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment subsidiary, AG Asset Strategies LLC (AGAS), are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $162 million for a total of $912 million as of March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to funds managed by Sound Point and AHP (Sound Point and AHP funds) were $772 million.

Capital ManagementLoss Mitigation

In recent years,an effort to avoid, reduce or recover losses and potential losses in its insurance portfolio, the Company has developed strategies to manage capital withinemploys a number of strategies.
In the Assured Guaranty group more efficiently.

From 2013 through November 2, 2017,public finance area, the Company believes its experience and the resources it is prepared to deploy, as well as its ability to provide bond insurance or other contributions as part of a solution, result in more favorable outcomes in distressed public finance situations than would be the case without its participation. This has repurchased 79.9 million common shares for approximately $2,166 million, excluding commissions. The Boardbeen illustrated by the Company’s role in negotiating various agreements in connection with the restructuring of Directors authorized, on November 1, 2017, an additional $300 millionobligations of share repurchases. Asthe Commonwealth of November 2, 2017, $398 million remains available under the Company's share repurchase authorizations.Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, as well as Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California. The Company expectswill also, where appropriate, pursue litigation to enforce its rights. For example, the repurchasesCompany initiated a number of legal actions to be made from timeenforce its rights with respect to timeobligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

In 2022, as a result of the resolution of the Company’s exposure to insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions), the Company received cash, new general obligation bonds (New GO Bonds), new bonds backed by toll revenues (Toll Bonds, and together with New GO Bonds, New Recovery Bonds) and contingent value instruments (CVIs). The CVIs are intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries tied to the outperformance of the Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax receipts against May 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, subject to annual and lifetime caps. The Company may sell in the open market orfuture any CVIs it continues to hold. The Company continues to work to resolve its remaining unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico exposure, PREPA. For more information about developments in privately negotiated transactions. The timing, formPuerto Rico and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including free funds available at the parent company, market conditions, the Company's capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminatedrelated recovery litigation being pursued by the Board at any time. It does not have an expiration date. Please refer to Part I,Company, see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 17, Shareholders' Equity,3, Outstanding Exposure, and the Insured Portfolio section below.

The Company is, and for additional information aboutseveral years has been, working with the Company's repurchasesservicers of its common shares.

Summarysome of Share Repurchases

the RMBS transactions it insures to encourage the servicers to provide alternatives to distressed borrowers that will encourage them to continue making payments on their loans to help improve the performance of the related RMBS.
68

 Amount Number of Shares Average price per share
 (in millions, except per share data)
2013$264
 12.51
 $21.12
2014590
 24.41
 24.17
2015555
 21.00
 26.43
2016306
 10.72
 28.53
2017 (January 1 - March 31)216
 5.43
 39.83
2017 (April 1 - June 30)135
 3.46
 39.05
2017 (July 1 - September 30)80
 1.85
 43.29
2017 (through November 2)20
 0.53
 37.48
Cumulative repurchases since the beginning of 2013$2,166
 79.91
 $27.11


The Company may also purchase attractively priced obligations, including below-investment-grade (BIG) obligations, that it has insured and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The fair value of Loss Mitigation Securities as of March 31, 2024 (excluding the value of the Company’s insurance) was $464 million.    


Accretive Effect of Cumulative Repurchases (1)

 Third Quarter 2017 Nine Months 2017 As of
September 30, 2017
 (per share)
Net income$0.61
 $1.88
  
Operating income (non-GAAP)0.44
 1.56
  
Shareholders' equity    $12.46
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity    11.48
Non-GAAP adjusted book value    19.01
_________________
(1)Cumulative repurchases since the beginning of 2013.


In December 2016, Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) repurchased $300 millionsome instances, the terms of its common stock from its parent, Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH). Subsequently, AGMH distributed the proceeds as dividends to its immediate parent, Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS),Company’s policy or the terms of certain workout orders and in 2017, AGUS began using these proceedsresolutions give it the option to pay dividendsprincipal on an accelerated basis on an obligation on which it has paid a claim, thereby reducing the amount of guaranteed interest due in the future. The Company has at times exercised this option, which uses cash but reduces projected future losses. The Company may also facilitate the issuance of refunding bonds, by either providing insurance on the refunding bonds or purchasing refunding bonds, or both. Refunding bonds may provide the issuer with payment relief.

Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Until July 1, 2023, the Company pursued its asset management strategy through AssuredIM. With the consummation of the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, effective as of July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point, and no longer directly manages investments for third parties. The Company’s ownership interest in Sound Point furthers its strategy of participating in a fee-based earnings stream independent of the risk-based premiums generated by its financial guaranty business. The Sound Point business was strengthened by the addition of AssuredIM’s assets under management (AUM) (excluding AUM relating to AGL. AGL has used these funds predominantly to repurchase its publicly traded common shares. On September 25, 2017, Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC) redeemed 64,322 of its shares from Municipal Assurance Holdings Inc. (MAC Holdings), its direct parent, for approximately $104 million in cash and $146 million in marketable securities. MAC Holdings then distributed such assets to its shareholders, AGM and Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC), in proportion to their respective 61% and 39% ownership interests, such that AGM received approximately $152 million ($6 million in cash and $146 million in securities) and AGC received approximately $98 million (all in cash)AHP). Please refer to Part I,See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 11, Insurance Company Regulatory Requirements,1, Business and Basis of Presentation, for information about dividend capacitya description of the Company's insurance companies.Sound Point Transaction.


The Company expects its relationship with Sound Point to also considersenhance its alternative investment opportunities. Upon closing of the appropriate mix of debtSound Point Transaction and equitythe AHP Transaction in its capital structure, and may repurchase some of its debt from time to time. For example, in Nine Months 2017, AGUS purchased $28 million of AGMH's outstanding Junior Subordinated Debentures. The Company may choose to make additional purchases of this or other Company debt in the future.

In order to reduce leverage, and possibly rating agency capital charges,July, the Company has mutuallyincreased the aggregate amount it has agreed with beneficiaries to terminate selected financial guaranty insurance and credit derivative contracts. In particular, the Company has targeted investment grade securities for which claims are not expected but which carry a disproportionately large rating agency capital charge. The Company terminated investment grade financial guaranty and credit default swap (CDS) contracts with net par of $1.7invest in alternative investments to $1.5 billion, including $1 billion in Third Quarter 2016. There were noSound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval. Of the $1.5 billion, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment grade financial guaranty or CDS terminations in Third Quarter 2017. The Company terminated investment grade financial guaranty and CDS contracts with net parsubsidiary, AG Asset Strategies LLC (AGAS), are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $298$162 million and $5.8 billion in Nine Months 2017 and Nine Months 2016, respectively. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 6, Contract Accounted for as Insurance and Note 8, Contract Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for additional information on the effecta total of credit derivative terminations on the consolidated statements of operations.

Alternative Strategies

The Company considers alternative strategies in order to create long-term shareholder value. For example, the Company considers opportunities to acquire financial guaranty portfolios, whether by acquiring financial guarantors who are no longer actively writing new business or their insured portfolios, or by commuting business that it had previously ceded. These transactions enable the Company to improve its future earnings and deploy some of its excess capital. In 2016, the Company established an alternative investments group to focus on deploying a portion of the Company's excess capital to pursue acquisitions and develop new business opportunities that complement the Company's financial guaranty business, are in line with its risk profile and benefit from its core competencies.

MBIA UK Insurance Limited.On January 10, 2017 (the MBIA UK Acquisition Date), AGC completed its acquisition of MBIA UK. Please refer to Part I, Item I, Financial Statements, Note 2, Acquisitions, for additional information. In Nine Months 2017, the acquisition contributed net income of approximately $1.04 per share including the bargain purchase gain, gain on settlement of pre-existing relationships, realized gain on Zohar II Notes, and activity since the MBIA UK Acquisition Date. The effect on operating income was approximately $0.64 per share in Nine Months 2017. Shareholders' equity and non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity benefited by $0.65 per share and non-GAAP adjusted book value benefited by $2.52 per share$912 million as of the MBIA UK Acquisition Date.March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to funds managed by Sound Point and AHP (Sound Point and AHP funds) were $772 million.



    MBIA UK changed its name to Assured Guaranty (London) Ltd. and re-registered as a public limited company to become Assured Guaranty (London) plc (AGLN). Assured Guaranty currently maintains AGLN as a stand-alone entity, but is actively working to combine AGLN with its other affiliated European insurance companies. As an initial step, on June 26, 2017, AGM purchased from its affiliate AGC, all of the shares of AGC’s European subsidiaries, and then immediately contributed these European subsidiaries to AGM’s wholly owned subsidiary, Assured Guaranty (Europe) plc (AGE). While the Company and its European subsidiaries have received certain regulatory approvals, the combination is subject to further regulatory and court approvals. As a result, the Company cannot predict whether, or when, such combination will be completed.

CIFG Holding Inc. On July 1, 2016, AGC acquired all of the issued and outstanding capital stock of CIFGH, for $450.6 million in cash that contributed $2.23 per share to shareholders' equity, $2.23 per share to non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity and $3.85 per share to non-GAAP adjusted book value at the date of acquisition. Please refer to Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data", Note 2, Acquisitions, of the Company's 2016 Annual Report on Form 10-K, for additional information.

Alternative Investments. The alternative investments group has been investigating a number of new business opportunities that complement the Company's financial guaranty business, are in line with its risk profile and benefit from its core competencies, including, among others, both controlling and non-controlling investments in investment managers. In February 2017 the Company agreed to purchase up to $100 million of limited partnership interests in a fund that invests in the equity of private equity managers.

Separately, in September, 2017, the Company acquired a minority interest in Wasmer, Schroeder & Company LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in separately managed accounts (SMAs).

The Company continues to investigate additional opportunities.

Commutations. During the first quarter of 2017, the Company entered into a commutation agreement to reassume the entire portfolio previously ceded to one of its unaffiliated reinsurers, consisting predominantly (over 97%) of U.S. public finance and international public and project finance exposures. During Third Quarter 2017, the Company entered into two commutation agreements. In one case, it reassumed the entire portfolio previously ceded to one of its unaffiliated reinsurers under quota share reinsurance, consisting predominantly of U.S. public finance and international public and project finance exposures. In the other case it reassumed a portion of the portfolio previously ceded to one of its other unaffiliated reinsurers. These commutations resulted in gains of $255 million and $328 million (recorded in other income) for Third Quarter 2017 and Nine Months 2017, respectively, and additional net unearned premium reserve of $62 million and $80 million for such periods, respectively. The Company may in the future enter into new commutation agreements reassuming portions of its remaining ceded business.

Loss Mitigation
    
In an effort to avoid, reduce or reducerecover losses and potential losses in its insurance portfolios,portfolio, the Company employs a number of strategies.
    
In the public finance area, the Company believes that its experience and the resources it is prepared to deploy, as well as its ability to provide bond insurance or other contributions as part of a solution, have resultedresult in more favorable outcomes in distressed public finance situations than would have beenbe the case without its participation, asparticipation. This has been illustrated for example, by the Company'sCompany’s role in the Detroit, Michigan; Stockton, California; and Jefferson County, Alabama financial crises. Currently, for example, the Company is actively working to mitigate potential lossesnegotiating various agreements in connection with the restructuring of obligations it insures of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.corporations, as well as Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California. The Company will also, where appropriate, pursue litigation to enforce its rights, and it hasrights. For example, the Company initiated severala number of legal actions to enforce its rights with respect to obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

In 2022, as a result of the resolution of the Company’s exposure to insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions), the Company received cash, new general obligation bonds (New GO Bonds), new bonds backed by toll revenues (Toll Bonds, and together with New GO Bonds, New Recovery Bonds) and contingent value instruments (CVIs). The CVIs are intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries tied to the outperformance of the Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax receipts against May 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, subject to annual and lifetime caps. The Company may sell in the future any CVIs it continues to hold. The Company continues to work to resolve its remaining unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico.Rico exposure, PREPA. For more information about developments in Puerto Rico and related recovery litigation being pursued by the Company, please refer to Part I,see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 4,3, Outstanding Exposure.Exposure, and the Insured Portfolio section below.


The Company is, currentlyand for several years has been, working with the servicers of some of the RMBS transactions it insures to encourage the servicers to provide alternatives to distressed borrowers that will encourage them to continue making payments on their loans and soto help improve the performance of the related RMBS.

68


The Company may also continues to purchase attractively priced obligations, including below-investment-grade (BIG) obligations, that it has insured and for which it hashad expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (loss mitigation securities)(Loss Mitigation Securities). The fair value of assets purchased for loss mitigation purposesLoss Mitigation Securities as of September 30,

2017March 31, 2024 (excluding the value of the Company'sCompany’s insurance) was $1,042 million, with a par of $1,661 million (including bonds related to FG VIEs of $44 million in fair value and $229 million in par).$464 million.    


In some instances, the terms of the Company'sCompany’s policy givesor the terms of certain workout orders and resolutions give it the option to pay principal on an accelerated basis on an obligation on which it has paid a claim, thereby reducing the amount of guaranteed interest due in the future. The Company has at times exercised this option, which uses cash but reduces projected future losses. The Company may also facilitate the issuance of refunding bonds, by either providing insurance on the refunding bonds or purchasing refunding bonds, or both. Refunding bonds may provide the issuer with payment relief.


In an effort to recover lossesAsset Management and Alternative Investments
Until July 1, 2023, the Company experienced inpursued its insured U.S. RMBS portfolio,asset management strategy through AssuredIM. With the consummation of the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, effective as of July 1, 2023, the Company also continues to pursue providersparticipates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point, and no longer directly manages investments for third parties. The Company’s ownership interest in Sound Point furthers its strategy of representations and warranties (R&W)participating in a fee-based earnings stream independent of the risk-based premiums generated by enforcing R&W provisions in contracts, negotiating agreements with R&W providersits financial guaranty business. The Sound Point business was strengthened by the addition of AssuredIM’s assets under management (AUM) (excluding AUM relating to those provisionsAHP). See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and where appropriate, pursuing litigation against R&W providers.Basis of Presentation, for a description of the Sound Point Transaction.

Other Events


The Company continuesexpects its relationship with Sound Point to monitor developments relatedalso enhance its alternative investment opportunities. Upon closing of the Sound Point Transaction and the AHP Transaction in July, the Company has increased the aggregate amount it has agreed to invest in alternative investments to $1.5 billion, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval. Of the $1.5 billion, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment subsidiary, AG Asset Strategies LLC (AGAS), are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $162 million for a total of $912 million as of March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to funds managed by Sound Point and AHP (Sound Point and AHP funds) were $772 million.

Capital Management

The Company has developed strategies to efficiently manage capital within the Assured Guaranty group.
From 2013 through May 7, 2024, the Company has repurchased 146 million common shares for approximately $5.1 billion, representing approximately 75% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program in 2013. On May 2, 2024, the AGL Board of Directors (the Board) authorized the repurchase of an additional $300 million of the Company’s common shares. Under this and previous authorizations, as of May 7, 2024, the Company was authorized to purchase $414 million of its common shares. Shares may be repurchased from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The timing, form and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including funds available at the parent company, other potential uses for such funds, market conditions, the Company’s capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board at any time and it does not have an expiration date. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about the Company’s repurchases of its common shares.

Summary of Share Repurchases
Amount (1)Number of SharesAverage price
per share (1)
(in millions, except per share data)
2013 - 2023$4,860 144.09 $33.73 
2024 (first quarter)129 1.54 84.07 
2024 (through May 7)61 0.75 80.70 
Cumulative repurchases since the beginning of 2013$5,050 146.38 34.50 
____________________
(1)    Excludes commissions and excise taxes.

69

As of March 31, 2024, the estimated accretive effect of the cumulative repurchases of common shares since the beginning of 2013 was approximately: $49.49 per share in shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, $53.50 per share in adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and $89.47 per share in adjusted book value.

The Company considers the appropriate mix of debt and equity in its capital structure. In 2023, the Company issued $350 million in 6.125% Senior Notes due in 2028, and used the proceeds primarily to redeem $330 million of 5% Senior Notes due in 2024. Since the second quarter of 2017, AGUS has also purchased $154 million in principal of AGMH’s outstanding Junior Subordinated Debentures.

The Company may choose to redeem or make additional purchases of this or other Company debt in the future. See “— Liquidity and Capital Resources — AGL and its U.S. Holding Companies.”

Executive Summary
This executive summary of management’s discussion and analysis highlights selected information and may not contain all of the information that is important to readers of this Quarterly Report. For a more detailed description of events, trends and uncertainties, as well as the capital, liquidity, credit, operational and market risks and the critical accounting policies and estimates affecting the Company, this Quarterly Report should be read in its entirety and in addition to the referendum heldCompany’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

The primary drivers of volatility in the Company’s net income include: loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE), changes in fair value of credit derivatives, FG VIEs, CIVs, CVIs and committed capital securities (CCS), as well as foreign exchange gains (losses), the level of refundings of insured obligations, changes in the value of the Company’s alternative investments, the effects of any large transactions, settlements, commutations and loss mitigation strategies, among other factors. Changes in laws and regulations, among other factors, may also have a significant effect on reported net income or loss in a given reporting period. 

70

Financial Performance of Assured Guaranty

Financial Results
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions, except per share amounts)
GAAP
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL$109 $81 
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share$1.89 $1.34 
Weighted average diluted shares57.1 60.4 
Non-GAAP
Adjusted operating income (loss) (1)$113 $68 
Adjusted operating income per diluted share$1.96 $1.12 
Weighted average diluted shares57.1 60.4 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in adjusted operating income$— $(4)
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in adjusted operating income per share$— $(0.06)
Components of total adjusted operating income (loss)
Insurance segment$149 $117 
Asset Management segment(1)
Corporate division(37)(44)
Other (2)— (4)
Adjusted operating income (loss)$113 $68 
Insurance Segment
Gross written premiums (GWP)$61 $86 
Present value of new business production (PVP) (1)
63 112 
Gross par written3,743 5,363 

As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
AmountPer ShareAmountPer Share
(in millions, except per share amounts)
Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL$5,629 $102.19 $5,713 $101.63 
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity (1)5,932 107.69 5,990 106.54 
Adjusted book value (1)8,665 157.31 8,765 155.92 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in adjusted operating shareholders’ equity0.06 0.07 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in adjusted book value(3)(0.05)— — 
Common shares outstanding (3)55.1 56.2 
____________________
(1)    See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for a definition of the financial measures that were not determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP), a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, if available, and for additional details.
(2)    Relates to the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs.
(3)    See “— Overview — Key Business Strategies — Capital Management” above for information on common share repurchases.
71

Condensed Consolidated Results of Operations

Condensed Consolidated Results of Operations
 Three Months Ended March 31,
 20242023
 (in millions)
Revenues:
Net earned premiums$119 $81 
Net investment income84 81 
Asset management fees— 26 
Net realized investment gains (losses)(2)
Fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives10 15 
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS(10)(16)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs(3)(5)
Fair value gains (losses) on CIVs22 58 
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement(12)20 
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities26 (2)
Other income (loss)27 
Total revenues245 283 
Expenses:
Loss and LAE (benefit)(1)
Interest expense23 21 
Amortization of deferred acquisition cost (DAC)
Employee compensation, benefit and other operating expenses:
Asset management subsidiaries— 45 
Insurance and other subsidiaries97 92 
Total expenses125 165 
Income (loss) before income taxes and equity in earnings (losses) of investees120 118 
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees24 
Income (loss) before income taxes144 120 
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes31 23 
Net income (loss)113 97 
Less: Noncontrolling interests16 
Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.$109 $81 
Effective tax rate21.4 %19.1 %

First Quarter 2024 Compared with First Quarter 2023
Net income attributable to AGL for first quarter 2024 was higher compared with the three-month period ended March 31, 2023 (first quarter 2023) primarily due to:

higher net earned premiums in first quarter 2024 compared with first quarter 2023 primarily due to one large refunded transaction, and
fair value gains on trading securities in first quarter 2024 compared with losses in first quarter 2023.

These increases were offset in part by:

foreign exchange losses on remeasurement in first quarter 2024, compared with gains in first quarter 2023, and
lower other income due to the reversal of a previously recorded litigation accrual of $20 million in first quarter 2023.

72

The Company’s effective tax rate reflects the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with U.S. subsidiaries generally taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 21%, U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. marginal corporate tax rate of 19% prior to March 31, 2023 and 25% after April 1 2023, the French subsidiary taxed at the French marginal corporate tax rate of 25%, and Bermuda subsidiaries taxed at the Bermuda marginal corporate tax rate of 0%, unless subject to U.S. tax by election or as a U.S. controlled foreign corporation. Effective January 1, 2024, the U.K. adopted a global minimum tax rate of 15% under the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Pillar Two rules. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 10, Income Taxes.

Adjusted Operating Income

Adjusted operating income in first quarter 2024 was $113 million, compared with $68 million in first quarter 2023. The increase was primarily due to higher premiums earned from accelerations due to a large refunded transaction in first quarter 2024, and fair value gains on Puerto Rico CVIs classified as trading securities, offset in part by lower other income in first quarter 2024, compared with first quarter 2023, which included the reversal of a previously recorded litigation accrual. See “— Results of Operations — Reconciliation to GAAP” for the reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).    

Book Value and Adjusted Book Value

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL as of March 31, 2024 decreased compared with December 31, 2023, due to share repurchases, unrealized losses on investments and dividends, offset in part by net income. Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value also decreased primarily due to share repurchases of $129 million and dividends, partially offset by operating income of $113 million and in the case of adjusted book value, GWP of $61 million. See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below for the reconciliation of shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL to adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value.

On a per share basis, shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, and adjusted book value increased as of March 31, 2024 compared with December 31, 2023, due, in part, to the accretive effect of the share repurchase program. See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for the reconciliation of shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL to adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value.

Other Matters

Inflation

By some key measures, consumer price inflation in the U.S. and the U.K. was higher in recent years than it has been in decades, and interest rates generally increased. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. impacts the Company directly by increasing exposure for certain index-linked U.K. debt with par that accretes with increasing inflation, and also increasing projected future installment premiums on June 23, 2016,the portion of such exposure that pays at least some of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure. Consumer price inflation may also impact the Company indirectly to the extent it makes it more difficult for obligors to make their debt payments, and may be accompanied by higher interest rates.

Higher interest rates impact the Company in numerous other ways. For example, higher interest rates are often accompanied by wider credit spreads, which a majority votedmay make the Company’s credit enhancement products more attractive in the market and increase the level of premiums it can charge for that product. Despite the recent increases in interest rates since 2022, the pace of credit spread widening was more modest and market penetration of municipal bond insurance in the U.S. public finance market remained relatively flat compared to exit2021 when interest rates were lower. Over time, higher interest rates also increase the EU, known as "Brexit",amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity investment portfolio. However, higher interest rates may, in turn, reduce the fair value of its largely fixed-rate fixed-maturity investment portfolio, dampen municipal bond issuance and negatively impact the finances of some insured obligors.

See “ — Overview — Economic Environment.”

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the imposition of economic sanctions by many western countries against Russia and certain Russian individuals, dislocation in global energy markets, massive refugee movements, and payment default by certain Russian credits. The economic sanctions imposed by western governments, along with decisions by private companies regarding their presence in Russia, continue to reduce western economic ties to Russia and to reshape global
73

economic and political ties more generally, and the U.K.’s service of formal notice on March 29, 2017 to the European Council of its wish to withdraw under Article 50 of the Treaty on EU. The Company may take action in anticipation of or in reaction to Brexit-related developments, especially those related to financial services regulation. The Company cannot predict all of the direction Brexit-related developments will take norpotential effects of the impact of those developmentsconflict on the economiesworld or on the Company.

The Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, and have identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia. In fact, the Company’s direct insurance exposure to eastern Europe generally is limited to approximately $245 million in net par outstanding as of March 31, 2024, comprising $205 million net par exposure to the marketssovereign debt of Poland and $40 million net par exposure to a toll road in Hungary. The Company rates all such exposure investment grade.

Middle East Conflict

In light of recent events in the Middle East, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, for exposures to the Middle East. After review, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have identified no material direct exposure to such area. The Company’s direct insurance exposure to the Middle East is generally limited to approximately $58 million in net par outstanding as of March 31, 2024, comprised of funded commitments to subscription finance facilities; however, such exposure may increase to a total of approximately $93 million to the extent all unfunded commitments under the facilities are ultimately funded. The Company serves.rates all such insurance exposure investment grade.


Results of Operations

Estimates and Assumptions
Critical Accounting Estimates

The Company’s consolidatedpreparation of financial statements include amountsin accordance with GAAP requires the application of accounting policies that are determined using estimatesoften involve a significant degree of judgment and assumptions. The actual amounts realized could ultimately be materially different fromrequire the amounts currently provided for in the Company’s consolidated financial statements. Management believes the most significant items requiring inherently subjective and complex estimates are expected losses, fair value estimates, other-than-temporary impairment, deferred income taxes, and premium revenue recognition. The following discussion of the results of operations includes information regarding theCompany to make estimates and assumptions, used for these itemsbased on available information, that affect the amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and shouldexpenses reported in the financial statements. Estimates are inherently subject to change and actual results could differ from those estimates, and the differences may be read in conjunction with the notesmaterial to the Company’scondensed consolidated financial statements.

An understandingCritical estimates and assumptions are periodically evaluated based on historical developments, market conditions, industry trends and other information that is reasonable under the circumstances. There can be no assurance that actual results will conform to estimates and assumptions and that reported results of operations will not be materially different in the future due to changes in these estimates and assumptions.

Listed below are the accounting policies and estimates that the Company believes are most dependent on the application of judgment and assumptions.

Expected loss to be paid (recovered);
Fair value of certain assets and liabilities, primarily:
Investments
Assets and liabilities of CIVs
Assets and liabilities of FG VIEs
Credit derivatives;
Acquisition date fair value of the Company’s accounting policies isequity method investment in Sound Point;
Impairments of critical importance to understanding its consolidatedequity method investments and financial statements. instruments; and
Income tax assets and liabilities, including the recoverability of deferred tax assets (liabilities) including the Bermuda deferred tax asset reported in 2023.

See Part II, Item 8. “Financial8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data”Data, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation, of the Company's 2016Company’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, for a discussion of the Company’s significant accounting policies which includes a reference to the loss estimation process,applicable note where further details regarding the significant estimates and assumptions are provided, as well as Part II, Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, of the fair value methodologies.Company’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, for further details regarding the sensitivity analyses.


Results of Operations by Segment

The Company carries a significant amountanalyzes the operating performance of its assets and a portion of its liabilities at fair value, the majority of which are measured at fair value on a recurring basis.  Level 3 assets, consisting primarily of FG VIE assets, credit derivative assets and investments, represented approximately 16% and 19% of the total assets that are measured at fair value on a recurring basiseach segment using each segment’s adjusted operating income as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively. All of the Company's liabilities that are measured at fair value are Level 3. Please refer to Part I,described in Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 7, Fair Value Measurement, for additional information about assets and liabilities classified as Level 3.2, Segment Information.

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Insurance Segment Results

Insurance Segment Results
 First Quarter
20242023
 
Segment revenues
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues$122 $84 
Net investment income83 82 
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities26 (2)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement— 1��
Other income (loss)(2)25 
Total segment revenues229 190 
Segment expenses
Loss expense (benefit)
Amortization of DAC
Employee compensation and benefit expenses48 39 
Other operating expenses27 28 
Total segment expenses85 79 
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees40 30 
Segment adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes184 141 
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes35 24 
Segment adjusted operating income (loss)$149 $117 
    

Consolidated Results of Operations

Consolidated Results of Operations
 Three Months Ended September 30, Nine Months Ended September 30,
 2017 2016 2017
2016
 (in millions)
Revenues:       
Net earned premiums$186
 $231
 $512
 $628
Net investment income99
 94
 322
 291
Net realized investment gains (losses)7
 (2) 54
 (5)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:       
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements(1) 15
 19
 47
Net unrealized gains (losses)59
 6
 87
 (23)
     Net change in fair value of credit derivatives58
 21
 106
 24
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS(4) (23) (4) (50)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs3
 (11) 25
 11
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
 259
 58
 259
Other income (loss)274
 (3) 385
 49
Total revenues623
 566
 1,458
 1,207
Expenses:       
Loss and LAE223
 (9) 354
 183
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs5
 4
 13
 13
Interest expense24
 26
 73
 77
Other operating expenses58
 65
 183
 188
Total expenses310
 86
 623
 461
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes313
 480
 835
 746
Provision (benefit) for income taxes105
 1
 157
 62
Net income (loss)$208
 $479
 $678
 $684


Net Earned Premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues

    
Premiums are earned and recognized over the contractual lives, or in the case of insured obligations backed by homogeneous pools of insured obligations,assets, the remaining expected lives, of financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company periodically estimates remaining expected lives of its insured obligations backed by homogeneous pools of assets and makes prospective adjustments for such changes in expected lives. Scheduled net earned premiums are expected to decrease each year unless replaced by a higher amount of new business, reassumptions of previously ceded business or books of business acquired in a business combination. Please refer to Part I,combinations. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 6,5, Contracts Accounted for as Insurance, Financial Guaranty Insurance Premiums, for additional information and the expected timing of future premium earnings.information.

Net Earned Premiums
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017
2016
 (in millions)
Financial guaranty insurance:       
Public finance       
Scheduled net earned premiums and accretion$76
 $80
 $240
 $222
Accelerations:       
Refundings84
 105
 189
 267
Terminations
 21
 1
 21
Total accelerations84
 126
 190
 288
Total Public finance160
 206
 430
 510
Structured finance(1)       
Scheduled net earned premiums and accretion23
 25
 67
 74
Terminations3
 
 14
 44
Total structured finance26
 25
 81
 118
Other0
 
 1
 0
Total net earned premiums$186
 $231
 $512
 $628
____________________
(1)Excludes $3 million and $4 million for Third Quarter 2017 and 2016, respectively, and $11 million and $12 million for Nine Months 2017 and 2016, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs.

Net earned premiums decreased in Third Quarter 2017 compared with Third Quarter 2016 due primarily to lower accelerations. Net earned premiums decreased in Nine Months 2017 compared with Nine Months 2016 due primarily to lower accelerations, offset in part by higher scheduled net earned premiums related to recent acquisitions. At September 30, 2017, $3.5 billion of net deferred premium revenue remained to be earned over the life of the insurance contracts. The MBIA UK Acquisition increased deferred premium revenue by $383 million at the date of the acquisition. The CIFG Acquisition increased deferred premium revenue by $296 million.

The change in net earned premiums due to accelerations isare attributable to changes in the expected lives of insured obligations driven by (a)by: (i) refundings of insured obligationsobligations; or (b)(ii) terminations of insured obligations either through negotiated agreements or the exercise of ourthe Company’s contractual rights to make claim payments on an accelerated basis.
    
Refundings occur in the public finance market and have been at historically high levels in recent years due primarily to the low interest rate environment, which has allowed manywhen municipalities and other public finance issuers pay down insured obligations prior to their originally scheduled maturities. Refundings tend to increase when issuers can refinance their debt obligations at lower rates.rates than they are currently paying. The premiums associated with the insured obligations of municipalities and other public finance issuers are generally received upfront when the obligations are issued and insured. When such issuers pay down insured obligations, prior to their originally scheduled maturities, the Company is no longer on risk for payment defaults, and therefore accelerates the recognition of the remaining nonrefundable deferred premium revenue remaining.revenue. The amortization of the Company’s outstanding book of business along with the previously high levels of refunding activity, and the higher interest rates environment has led to a lower volume of refunding opportunities over the last several years.

    
Terminations are generally negotiated agreements with issuersbeneficiaries resulting in the extinguishment of the Company’s insurance obligation with respect to the insured obligations.obligation. Terminations arehave been more common in the structured finance asset

class, but may also occur in the public finance asset class. While each termination may have different terms, they all result in the expiration of the Company’s insurance risk, such that the Company acceleratesacceleration of the recognition of the associated unearned premiums.deferred premium revenue and the reduction of any remaining premiums receivable.

75

Insurance Segment
Net Investment IncomeEarned Premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Net earned premiums:
Financial guaranty insurance:
Public finance
Scheduled net earned premiums (1)$65 $62 
Refundings and terminations37 
Total public finance102 66 
Structured finance
Scheduled net earned premiums (1)14 15 
Accelerations— 
Total structured finance16 15 
Specialty insurance and reinsurance
Total net earned premiums120 82 
Credit derivative revenues
Total net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues$122 $84 
____________________
(1)    Includes accretion of discount.

Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues increased in first quarter 2024 compared with first quarter 2023 primarily due to a large refunded transaction in first quarter 2024. As of March 31, 2024, $3.6 billion of net deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty insurance remained to be earned over the life of the insurance contracts.
    
76

New Business Production

Gross Written Premiums and
New Business Production
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
GWP
Public finance—U.S.$44 $22 
Public finance—non-U.S.36 
Structured finance—U.S.13 28 
Structured finance—non-U.S.— 
Total GWP$61 $86 
PVP (1):
Public finance—U.S.$43 $22 
Public finance—non-U.S.30 
Structured finance—U.S.15 27 
Structured finance—non-U.S. (2)33 
Total PVP$63 $112 
Gross Par Written (1):
Public finance—U.S.$2,909 $2,907 
Public finance—non-U.S.— 360 
Structured finance—U.S.480 582 
Structured finance—non-U.S. (2)354 1,514 
Total gross par written$3,743 $5,363 
____________________
(1)    PVP and Gross Par Written in the table above are based on “close date,” when the transaction settles. See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures — PVP or Present Value of New Business Production.” PVP was discounted at 5.0% and 4.0% in 2024 and 2023, respectively.
(2)    First quarter 2023 PVP and gross par written include the present value of future gross revenues and exposure, respectively, associated with a financial guaranty written by the Company that, under GAAP, is accounted for under Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees.

U.S. public finance GWP and PVP in first quarter 2024 were higher than the comparable GWP and PVP in first quarter 2023, primarily due to several large transportation revenue transactions that closed in first quarter 2024. The Company’s direct par written represented 53% of the total U.S. municipal market insured issuance in first quarter 2024, compared with 60% in first quarter 2023, and the Company’s penetration of all municipal issuance was 3.8% in first quarter 2024 compared with 4.6% in first quarter 2023.

Structured finance GWP and PVP in first quarter 2024 were primarily attributable to insurance securitization and subscription finance transactions. Business activity in the non-U.S. public finance and structured finance sectors often has long lead times and therefore may vary from period to period.

77

Financial Strength Ratings
    Demand for the financial guaranties issued by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries may be impacted by changes in the credit ratings assigned to them by the rating agencies. The financial strength ratings (or similar ratings) assigned to AGL’s insurance subsidiaries, along with the date of the most recent rating action (or confirmation) by the rating agency assigning the rating, are shown in the table below.

S&P Global Ratings, a division of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P)Kroll Bond Rating
Agency
Moody’s Ratings (Moody’s)A.M. Best Company,
Inc.
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.(AGM)AA (stable) (7/13/23)AA+ (stable) (10/20/23)A1 (stable) (4/30/24)
Assured Guaranty Corp.(AGC)AA (stable) (7/13/23)AA+ (stable) (10/20/23)A1 (stable) (4/30/24)
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re)AA (stable) (7/13/23)
Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. (AGRO)AA (stable) (7/13/23)A+ (stable) (7/21/23)
Assured Guaranty UK Limited (AGUK)AA (stable) (7/13/23)AA+ (stable) (10/20/23)A1 (stable) (4/30/24)
Assured Guaranty (Europe) SA (AGE)AA (stable) (7/13/23)AA+ (stable) (10/20/23)

Ratings are subject to continuous rating agency review and revision or withdrawal at any time. In addition, the Company periodically assesses the value of each rating assigned to each of its companies, and as a result of such assessment may request that a rating agency add or drop a rating from certain of its companies. There can be no assurance that any of the rating agencies will not take negative action on the financial strength ratings (or similar ratings) of AGL’s insurance subsidiaries in the future or cease to rate one or more of AGL’s insurance subsidiaries, either voluntarily or at the request of that subsidiary.

Income from Investments

Net investment income is a function of the yield that the Company earns on invested assetsavailable-for-sale fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments and the size of thesuch portfolio. The investment yield on fixed-maturity securities is a function of market interest rates at the time of investment as well as the type, credit quality and maturity of the invested assets.securities in this portfolio.


Net Investment Income (1)CVIs issued by Puerto Rico and received as part of the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions are classified as trading with changes in fair value reported in “fair value gains (losses) on trading securities” in the condensed consolidated statements on operations. The fair value of such instruments as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 was $272 million and $318 million, respectively.


Equity method investments in the Insurance segment include investments that the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries make in certain alternative investments, primarily Sound Point and AHP funds. The income (loss) on such investments is reported in “equity in earnings (losses) of investees” and typically represents the Company’s share of earnings of its investees.

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 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Income from fixed-maturity securities managed by third parties$74
 $75
 $224
 $231
Income from internally managed securities:       
Fixed maturities27
 19
 100
 58
Other1
 2
 5
 8
Gross investment income102
 96
 329
 297
Investment expenses(3) (2) (7) (6)
Net investment income$99
 $94
 $322
 $291
Insurance Segment
____________________Income from Investments
(1)Net investment income excludes $2 million and $1 million for Third Quarter 2017 and 2016, respectively, and $4 million and $8 million for Nine Months 2017 and 2016, respectively, related to securities in the investment portfolio owned by AGC and AGM that were issued by consolidated FG VIEs.

 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Net investment income
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale:
Externally managed$52 $52 
Loss Mitigation Securities
Puerto Rico, New Recovery Bonds— 
Other
Short-term investments19 12 
Intercompany loans
Investment income84 83 
Investment expenses(1)(1)
Net investment income$83 $82 
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities$26 $(2)
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees
CLOs$20 $19 
Healthcare
Asset-based/specialty finance
Middle market direct lending— 
Other
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees$40 $30 


    
Net investment income for Third Quarter 2017 increased to $83 million in first quarter 2024 compared to Third Quarter 2016$82 million in first quarter 2023, primarily due primarily to higher income from internally managed securities. The higher income is due primarily to improved underlying cash flow and the early payoff of certain investments.

Net investment income for Nine Months 2017 increased compared to Nine Months 2016 due primarily to the accretionincrease in short-term rates and higher average short-term balances, partially offset by lower income on the Zohar II 2005-1 (the Zohar II Notes) (which was used as consideration for the purchase of MBIA UK) prior to the MBIA UK Acquisition Date and also due to improved underlying cash flow and the early payoff of certain investments.

Loss Mitigation Securities. The overall pre-tax book yield of available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments was 3.59%3.87% as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and 3.57%3.82% as of September 30, 2016, respectively. Excluding the internally managed portfolio, pre-tax book yield was 3.12% asMarch 31, 2023.

Equity in earnings (losses) of September 30, 2017investees increased to $40 million in first quarter 2024 compared with 3.32% as of September 30, 2016. The decline$30 million in yield for the externally managed portfolio was primarily a result of lower yielding assets relatedfirst quarter 2023 due to the MBIA UK investment portfolio.higher balances and changes in fair value in alternative investments.



Other Income (Loss)
Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)


The table below presents the components of net realized investment gains (losses).

Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Gross realized gains on available-for-sale securities$23
 $4
 $92
 $24
Gross realized losses on available-for-sale securities(3) (1) (9) (3)
Net realized gains (losses) on other invested assets0
 0
 0
 0
Other-than-temporary impairment(13) (5) (29) (26)
Net realized investment gains (losses)$7
 $(2) $54
 $(5)

Realized gainsdecrease in Third Quarter 2017 comprise primarily the gain on sale of investments from the internally managed portfolio. In addition, realized gains“other income (loss)” in Nine Months 2017 include the gain on sale of the Zohar II Notes exchanged in the MBIA UK Acquisition. Realized gains in Nine Months 2016 were due primarily to sales of securities in order to fund the CIFG Acquisition. Other-than-temporary-impairments in all periods presented werefirst quarter 2024 was primarily attributable to securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes.

Bargain Purchase Gain and Settlementthe reversal of Pre-existing Relationships 

In connection with the MBIA UK Acquisitiona previously recorded litigation accrual of $20 million in Nine Months 2017, the Company recognized a $56 million bargain purchase gain and a $2 million gain on settlement of pre-existing relationships. Please refer to Part I,first quarter 2023. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 2, Acquisitions,11, Commitments and Contingencies, for additional information.


On July 1, 2016, AGC acquired all of the issued and outstanding capital stock of CIFGH, the parent of financial guaranty insurer CIFG Assurance North America, Inc. (CIFGNA), and on July 5, 2016, merged CIFGNA with and into AGC, with AGC as the surviving company. In connection with the acquisition, in 2016, the Company recognized a $357 million bargain purchase gain and a $98 million loss on settlement of pre-existing relationships.

Other Income (Loss)
Other income (loss) comprises recurring items such as foreign exchange remeasurement gains and losses, ancillary fees on financial guaranty policies such as commitment and consent, and if applicable, other revenue items on financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance contracts such as commutation gains on re-assumptions of previously ceded business, loss mitigation recoveries and certain non-recurring items.
Other Income (Loss)

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement of premium receivable and loss reserves$3
 $(2) $17
 $(21)
Commutation gains255
 8
 328
 8
Loss on extinguishment of debt(2) 
 (9) 
Other18
 (9) 49
 62
Total other income (loss)$274
 $(3) $385
 $49


In Third Quarter 2017 and Nine Months 2017, other income comprises primarily commutation gains on reassumptions of previously ceded business. In Nine Months 2017, the loss on extinguishment of debt was related to AGUS' purchase of $28 million principal amount of AGMH's outstanding Junior Subordinated Debentures. The loss represents the difference between the amount paid to purchase AGMH's debt and the carrying value of the debt, which includes the remaining unamortized fair value adjustments that were recorded upon the Company's acquisition of AGMH in 2009. Foreign exchange gains in Nine Months 2017 and foreign exchange loss in Nine Months 2016 were due primarily to changes in the exchange rate of the British pound sterling. In Nine Months 2016, other income also included a benefit due to loss mitigation recoveries.

Economic Loss Development
 
The insured portfolio includes policies accounted for under three separateseveral different accounting models depending on the characteristics of the contract and the Company’s control rights. Please referFor a discussion of methodologies and significant estimates for expected loss to be paid (recovered), see Part I,II, Item 1,8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 5,4, Expected Loss to be Paid for a discussion(Recovered), of the assumptions and methodologies used in calculating the expected loss to be paidCompany’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K. The GAAP accounting policies for all contracts. For a discussion of the loss estimation process, approach to projecting losses and the measurement and recognition accounting policies under GAAP for each type of contract seeare described in the followingnotes listed below in Part II, Item 8, "FinancialFinancial Statements and Supplementary Data"Data, of the Company's 2016Company’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K:


Note 5 for expected loss to be paid,contracts accounted for as insurance;
Note 6 for contracts accounted for as insurance,credit derivatives;
Note 78 for FG VIEs; and
79

Note 9 for fair value methodologies for credit derivatives and FG VIEVIEs’ assets and liabilities,liabilities.
Note 8 for contracts accounted for as credit derivatives, and
Note 9 for consolidated FG VIEs.
The discussion of losses that follows encompasses losses on all contracts in the insured portfolio regardless of accounting model, unless otherwise specified.    In order to effectivelyefficiently evaluate and manage the economics of the entire insured portfolio, management compiles and analyzes expected loss information for all policies on a consistent basis. That is, management monitors and assigns ratings and calculatesThe discussion of losses that follows encompasses expected losses on all contracts in the same manner for all its exposures. Management also considers contract specific characteristics that affect the estimatesinsured portfolio regardless of expected loss.

The surveillance process for identifying transactions with expected losses is described in the notes to the consolidated financial statements. More extensive monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly.
accounting model, unless otherwise specified. Net expected loss to be paid consists primarily of(recovered) is equal to the present value of future: expected claimfuture cash outflows for loss and LAE payments, net of: (i) inflows for expected recoveries fromsalvage, subrogation and other recoveries; (ii) excess spread on underlying collateral, as applicable; and other collateral(iii) amounts ceded to reinsurers. Assumptions used in the transaction structures, cessionsdetermination of the net expected loss to reinsurers,be paid (recovered) such as delinquency, severity, discount rates and expected recoveries for breachestime frames to recovery are consistent by sector regardless of R&W and the effects of other loss mitigation strategies. accounting model used.
Current risk freerisk-free rates are used to discount expected losses at the end of each reporting period and thereforeperiod. Therefore, changes in such rates from period to period affect the expected loss estimates reported. Assumptions used in the determination of the net expected loss to be paid such as delinquency, severity, and discount rates and expected time frames to recovery in the mortgage market were consistent by sector regardless of the accounting model used. The primary drivers of economic loss development are discussed below. Changes in risk free rates used to discount losses affect economic loss development and loss and LAE; however,LAE. However, the effect of changes in discount rates areis not indicative of actual credit impairment or improvement in the period. The weighted average discount rates used to discount expected losses (recoveries) for U.S. denominated exposures were 4.44% and 4.10% as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.


The composition of economic loss development (benefit) by accounting model and by sector is presented in the tables that follow, and the drivers of economic loss development (benefit) are discussed below.

Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) and Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
by Accounting Model
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
As ofFirst Quarter
Accounting ModelMarch 31, 2024December 31, 202320242023
 (in millions)
Insurance$191 $263 $(7)$
FG VIEs (1)241 240 — 
Credit derivatives— — 
Total$433 $505 $(7)$11 
Net exposure rated BIG$5,277 $5,521 
____________________
(1)    The expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs primarily relates to trusts established as part of the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions (Puerto Rico Trusts). See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered).

Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
Roll Forward by Sector
First Quarter 2024
SectorNet Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2023
Net Economic Loss
Development (Benefit) (2)
Net (Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2024
 (in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$398 $(3)$(17)$378 
Non-U.S. public finance20 — — 20 
Public finance418 (3)(17)398 
Structured finance:   
U.S. RMBS43 (3)(42)(2)
Other structured finance44 (1)(6)37 
Structured finance87 (4)(48)35 
Total$505 $(7)$(65)$433 


80

First Quarter 2023
SectorNet Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2022
Net Economic Loss
Development (Benefit) (2)
Net (Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$403 $$(24)$380 
Non-U.S. public finance— 13 
Public finance412 (24)393 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS66 11 82 
Other structured finance44 (3)42 
Structured finance110 124 
Total$522 $11 $(16)$517 
____________________
(1)    Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded as reinsurance recoverable on paid losses in “other assets.”
(2)    Effect of changes in the risk-free rates included in economic loss development (benefit) was a benefit of $3 million in first quarter 2024 and a loss of $10 million in first quarter 2023.

First Quarter 2024Net Economic Loss Development

Public Finance: The economic benefit on U.S. public finance exposures in first quarter 2024 was $3 million, which was primarily attributable to the improved performance across various credits.

U.S. RMBS: The net benefit attributable to U.S. RMBS was $3 million and was mainly attributable to higher recoveries for secured second lien charged-off loans.
First Quarter 2023Net Economic Loss Development

Economic loss development of $11 million was primarily due to changes in discount rates of $10 million.

Insurance Segment Loss Expense

The primary differences between net economic loss development and lossthe amount reported as “loss and LAE are that the amount reported(benefit)” in the consolidated statements of operations:

operations are that loss and LAE (benefit): (i) considers deferred premium revenue in the calculation of loss reserves and loss and LAE for financial guaranty insurance contracts,

contracts; (ii) eliminates loss and LAE related to FG VIEsVIEs; and

(iii) does not include estimated losses on credit derivatives.


Loss    Insurance segment loss expense includes loss and LAE reported in operating income (non-GAAP) (i.e. operating loss and LAE) includes losses on financial guaranty insurance contracts (other than those eliminated dueand losses on credit derivatives, without giving effect to eliminations related to the consolidation of FG VIEs), and credit derivatives.VIEs.



For financial guaranty insurance contracts, theeach transaction’s expected loss and LAE reported into be expensed is compared with the consolidated statements of operations is generally recorded only when expected losses exceed deferred premium revenue.revenue of that transaction. Expected loss to be expensed represents past or expected future net claim payments that have not yet been expensed. Such amounts will be expensed in future periods as deferred premium revenue amortizes into income on financial guaranty insurance policies. Expected loss to be expensed is the Company’s projection of incurred losses that will be recognized in future periods, excluding accretion of discount. When the expected loss to be expensed exceeds the deferred premium revenue, a loss is recognized in income for the amount of such excess. Therefore, the timing of loss recognition in income does not necessarily coincide with the timing of the actual credit impairment or improvement reported in net economic loss development. Transactions (particularly BIG transactions) acquired in a business combinationcombinations or seasoned portfolios assumed from legacy financial guaranty insurers generally have the largest deferred premium revenue balances because of the purchase accounting fair value adjustments made at acquisition.balances. Therefore, the largest differences between net economic loss development and loss and LAE on financial guaranty insurance contracts generally relate to thesethose policies. See "Loss and LAE (Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts)" below.

Net Expected Loss to be Paid

 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 (in millions)
Public finance$1,093
 $904
Structured finance   
U.S. RMBS176
 206
Other structured finance23
 88
Structured finance199
 294
Total$1,292
 $1,198


Economic Loss Development (Benefit) (1)

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Public finance$229
 $8
 $427
 $216
Structured finance:       
U.S. RMBS(19) (27) (70) (139)
Other structured finance(6) (25) (59) (40)
Structured finance(25) (52) (129) (179)
Total$204
 $(44) $298
 $37
____________________
(1)Economic loss development includes the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts.
Third Quarter 2017 Net Economic Loss Development

The total economic loss development of $204 million in Third Quarter 2017 was primarily related to the public finance sector, offset in part by improvements in the structured finance sector. The risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations used to discount expected losses ranged from 0.0% to 2.94% with a weighted average of 2.27% as of September 30, 2017 and 0.0% to 2.83% with a weighted average of 2.32% as of June 30, 2017. The effect of changes in the risk-free rates used to discount expected losses was a benefit of $6 million in Third Quarter 2017.

U.S. Public Finance Economic Loss Development: The net par outstanding for U.S. public finance obligations rated BIG by the Company was $7.3 billion as of September 30, 2017 compared with $7.1 billion as of June 30, 2017. The Company projects that its total net expected loss across its troubled U.S. public finance credits as of September 30, 2017 will be $1,046 million, compared with $1,044 million as of June 30, 2017. Economic loss development in Third Quarter 2017 was $229 million, which was primarily attributable to Puerto Rico. See "Insured Portfolio-Exposure to Puerto Rico" below for details about significant developments that have taken place in Puerto Rico.

U.S. RMBS Economic Loss Development: The net benefit attributable to U.S. RMBS was $19 million and was mainly related to improvement in the underlying collateral performance of home equity lines of credit mortgages and improvements in

observed liquidation rates. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid for additional information.

Other Structured Finance Economic Loss Development: The net benefit attributable to structured finance (excluding U.S. RMBS) was $6 million, due primarily to decreased future loss expectations on certain transactions reinsured by the Company. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid for additional information.

Third Quarter 2016 Net Economic Loss Development

Total economic loss of $44 million in Third Quarter 2016 was generated mainly by the structured finance sector. The risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations used to discount expected losses ranged from 0.0% to 2.42% with a weighted average of 1.80% as of September 30, 2016 and 0.0% to 2.46% with a weighted average of 1.59% as of June 30, 2016. The effect of the change in the risk-free rates used to discount expected losses was a benefit of $29 million in Third Quarter 2016.

U.S. Public Finance Economic Loss Development: The net par outstanding for U.S. public finance obligations rated BIG by the Company was $7.6 billion as of September 30, 2016 compared with $8.3 billion as of June 30, 2016. The Company projected that its total net expected loss across its troubled U.S. public finance credits as of September 30, 2016 would be $816 million, compared with $963 million as of June 30, 2016. Economic loss development in Third Quarter 2016 was $9 million, which was primarily attributable to Puerto Rico exposures.

U.S. RMBS Economic Loss Development: The net benefit attributable to U.S. RMBS was $27 million due mainly to underlying collateral improvement on certain subprime transactions and an increase in the expected recovery rate on certain second lien transactions.

Other Structured Finance Economic Loss Development: The net benefit attributable to structured finance (excluding U.S. RMBS) was $25 million, due primarily to a benefit from the purchase of a portion of an insured obligation as part of a loss mitigation strategy.
Nine Months 2017 Net Economic Loss Development

Total economic loss development of $298 million in Nine Months 2017 was generated mainly by the U.S. public finance sector, partially offset by a net benefit in the structured finance sector. Economic loss development in the public finance sector in Nine Months 2017 was $427 million, which was primarily attributable to exposures to Puerto Rico. This was partially offset by $129 million benefit in structured finance due to lower re-default assumptions on first and second lien modified loans, and a benefit from a litigation settlement related to two triple-X transactions. The effect of the change in the risk-free rates used to discount expected losses was a loss of $28 million in Nine Months 2017.

Nine Months 2016 Net Economic Loss Development

Total economic loss development of $37 million in Nine Months 2016 was generated mainly by the U.S. public finance sector on Puerto Rico exposures, partially offset by a net benefit in the structured finance sector. Economic loss development in the public finance sector in Nine Months 2016 was $216 million, which was primarily attributable to Puerto Rico exposures. This was partially offset by a $179 million benefit due to: the acceleration of claim payments as a means of mitigating future losses on certain Alt-A transactions and transaction performance improvement in U.S. RMBS, improved performance of various other structured finance credits and changes in interest rates. The effect of the change in the risk-free rates used to discount expected losses was a loss of $79 million in Nine Months 2016.

Loss and LAE (Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts)
The amount of loss and LAE recognized in the consolidated statements of operations for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as insurance is dependent on the amount of economic loss development discussed above and the deferred premium revenue amortization in a given period, on a contract-by-contract basis. For these transactions, each transaction’s expected loss to be expensed, net of estimated recoveries, is compared with the deferred premium revenue of that transaction. Generally, when the expected loss to be expensed exceeds the deferred premium revenue, a loss is recognized in the consolidated statements of operations for the amount of such excess.


While expected loss to be paid (recovered) is an important liquidity measure that provides the present value of amounts that the Company expects to pay or recover in future periods on all contracts, expected loss to be expensed is important because it

81

presents the Company’s projection of loss and LAEnet expected losses that will be recognized in the consolidated statement of operations in future periods as deferred premium revenue amortizes into income in the consolidated statements of operations for financial guaranty insurance policies. Expected

The amount of Insurance segment loss to be paid for FG VIEs pursuant to AGC’sexpense, which includes all policies regardless of form, is a function of the amount of economic loss development discussed above and AGM’s financial guaranty policies is calculatedthe deferred premium revenue amortization in a manner consistent with financial guaranty insurance contracts, but eliminated in consolidation under GAAP.

given period, on a contract-by-contract basis. The following table presents the Insurance segment loss and LAE recorded in the consolidated statements of operations. Amounts presented are net of reinsurance.expense (benefit).


Insurance Segment
Loss Expense (Benefit)
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
U.S. public finance$$
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS
Other structured finance
Structured finance
Total Insurance segment loss expense (benefit)$$

Employee Compensation and LAE Reported
on the Consolidated Statements of Operations

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Public finance$233
 $20
 $421
 $232
Structured finance:       
U.S. RMBS(4) (2) (14) (3)
Other structured finance(5) (27) (48) (42)
Structured finance(9) (29) (62) (45)
Total insurance contracts before FG VIE consolidation224
 (9) 359
 187
Elimination of losses attributable to FG VIEs(1) 0
 (5) (4)
Total loss and LAE (1)$223
 $(9) $354
 $183
____________________
(1)Excludes credit derivative loss of $1 million and benefit $8 million for Third Quarter 2017 and Third Quarter 2016 and credit derivative benefit of $25 million and $25 million for Nine Months 2017 and Nine Months 2016.

Benefit Expenses and Other Operating Expenses
 
Loss and LAEThe increase in Third Quarter 2017first quarter 2024 compared with first quarter 2023 was mainly driven byprimarily attributable to an increase in headcount and employee time allocations to the insurance segment.

Asset Management Segment Results

Asset Management Segment Results
First Quarter
 20242023
(in millions)
Segment revenues$$41 
Segment expenses— 42 
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees— 
Segment adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes(1)
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes— 
Segment adjusted operating income (loss)$$(1)

Results in the table above represent (i) asset management and performance fees, amortization of intangible assets and compensation and other operating expenses of AssuredIM in first quarter 2023, (ii) equity in earnings of Sound Point of $4 million in first quarter 2024 (Sound Point results are reported on a one quarter lag), net of the amortization of finite-lived intangible assets associated with the basis difference in Sound Point, (iii) an impairment loss reservesof $3 million of a smaller financial services advisory firm with a carrying value of $4 million and (iv) other asset management related income.

82

Corporate Division Results

Corporate Division Results
First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Revenues$$
Expenses
Interest expense25 23 
Employee compensation and benefit expenses10 
Other operating expenses12 16 
Total expenses47 48 
Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes(42)(46)
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes(5)(2)
Adjusted operating income (loss)$(37)$(44)
Corporate division interest expense primarily relates to debt issued by the U.S. Holding Companies, and also includes intersegment interest expense. See “— Liquidity and Capital Resources — AGL and its U.S. Holding Companies, Intercompany Loans Payable,” for additional information.

Corporate division employee compensation and benefits expenses are an allocation of expenses based on certain Puerto Rico exposures. Losstime studies and LAE benefit in Third Quarter 2016 was mainly driven by arepresent the costs incurred and time spent on holding company activities, capital management, corporate oversight and governance including Board of Director expenses, legal fees and other direct or allocated expenses. The decrease in loss reservesoperating expenses in first quarter 2024 was primarily due to expenses related to the structured finance sector. The non-U.S. RMBS structured finance sector benefited from the purchase of a portion of an insured obligation as part of a loss mitigation strategy.

LossSound Point Transaction and LAEhigher charge for value added taxes in Nine Months 2017 was mainly driven by higher loss reserves on certain Puerto Rico exposures,first quarter 2023, partially offset by a benefit from a litigation settlementincreases in premises related to two triple-X transactions. Lossexpenses.

Other (Effect of Consolidating FG VIEs and LAE in Nine Months 2016 was mainly driven by higher loss reserves on certain Puerto Rico exposures partially offset by a benefit from the non-U.S. RMBS structured finance transaction loss mitigation strategy described above, and commutations of certain assumed student loan exposures.CIVs)

For financial guaranty contracts accounted for as insurance, the amounts reported in the GAAP financial statements may only reflect a portion of the current period’s economic loss development and may also include a portion of prior-period economic loss development.    The difference between economic loss development on financial guaranty insurance contracts and loss and LAE recognized in the consolidated statements of operations relates to the effect of taking deferred premiumconsolidating FG VIEs and CIVs, intersegment eliminations and reclassifications of reimbursable fund expenses to revenue into account for loss and LAE, which is not consideredare presented in economic loss development.

For additional information on schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed please refer to Part I,“other.” See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 6, Contracts Accounted2, Segment Information.

The types of entities the Company consolidates when it is deemed to be the primary beneficiary primarily include: (i) entities whose debt obligations the insurance subsidiaries insure; (ii) Puerto Rico Trusts; and (iii) investment vehicles such as (a) Sound Point funds and (b) prior to July 1, 2023, AHP funds, collateralized financing entities and CLO warehouses. The Company eliminates the effects of intercompany transactions between its FG VIEs and CIVs and its insurance and asset management subsidiaries, as well as intercompany transactions between CIVs.

    Consolidating FG VIEs (as opposed to accounting for the related insurance contracts in the Insurance segment) has a significant gross-up effect on the consolidated financial statements, and includes: (i) the establishment of the FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities and related changes in fair value on the condensed consolidated financial statements; (ii) eliminating the premiums and losses/recoveries associated with the financial guaranty insurance contracts between the insurance subsidiaries and the FG VIEs; and (iii) eliminating the investment balances associated with the insurance subsidiaries’ purchases of the debt obligations of the FG VIEs.

Consolidating CIVs (as opposed to accounting for them as equity method investments) has a significant effect on assets, liabilities and cash flows, and includes: (i) the establishment of the assets and liabilities of the CIVs, and related changes in fair value; (ii) eliminating the asset management fees earned by AssuredIM from the CIVs (prior to July 1, 2023); (iii) eliminating the equity method investments of the insurance subsidiaries and related equity in earnings (losses) of investees; and (iv) establishing noncontrolling interest for amounts not owned by the Company. The economic effect of the U.S Insurance Financial GuarantySubsidiaries’ ownership interests in CIVs is presented in the Insurance Losses.segment as equity in earnings (losses) of investees, while the effect of CIVs is presented as separate line items (“fair value gains (losses) on consolidated investment vehicles” and “noncontrolling interest) on a consolidated basis.


The table below reflects the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs on the condensed consolidated statements of operations. The amounts represent: (i) the revenues and expenses of the FG VIEs and the CIVs and (ii) the consolidation adjustments and eliminations between consolidated FG VIEs or CIVs and the operating and investment subsidiaries.
83


Effect of Consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs on the Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
Increase (Decrease)
 First Quarter
 20242023
Effect on Financial Statement Line Item(in millions)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs (1)$(3)$(5)
Fair value gains (losses) on CIVs22 58 
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees (2)(17)(28)
Other (3)(14)
Effect on income before tax11 
Less: Tax provision (benefit)— (1)
Effect on net income (loss)12 
Less: Effect on noncontrolling interests (4)16 
Effect on net income (loss) attributable to AGL$— $(4)
By Type of VIE
FG VIEs$(1)$(2)
CIVs(2)
Effect on net income (loss) attributable to AGL$— $(4)
____________________
(1)    Changes in fair value of the FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities that are attributable to factors other than (i) changes in the Company’s own credit risk on FG VIE liabilities with recourse and (ii) unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale fixed maturity securities.
(2)    Represents the elimination of the equity in earnings (losses) of investees of AGAS and the other subsidiaries’ investments in certain alternative investments, primarily Sound Point and AHP funds (and prior to July 1, 2023, AssuredIM managed funds).
(3)    Includes net earned premiums, net investment income, asset management fees for first quarter 2023, foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement, other income (loss), loss and LAE (benefit) and other operating expenses.
(4)     Represents the proportion of consolidated funds managed by Sound Point and prior to July 1, 2023, AssuredIM funds’ income that is not attributable to AGAS’ or any other subsidiaries’ ownership interest.

Reconciliation to GAAP

Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL
to Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL$109 $81 
Less pre-tax adjustments:
Realized gains (losses) on investments(2)
Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives10 13 
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS(10)(16)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves(12)20 
Total pre-tax adjustments(4)15 
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments— (2)
Adjusted operating income (loss)$113 $68 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation (net of tax provision (benefit) of $0 and $(1)) included in adjusted operating income$— $(4)
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Net Change inRealized Investment Gains (Losses)

The table below presents the components of net realized investment gains (losses).

Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses)
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Gross realized gains on sales of available-for-sale securities$$12 
Gross realized losses on sales of available-for-sale securities(3)(9)
Change in allowance for credit losses and intent to sell10 (5)
Net realized investment gains (losses)$$(2)

Non-Credit Impairment-Related Unrealized Fair Value ofGains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
 
Changes in the fair value of credit derivatives occur primarily because of changes in interest rates,the Company’s own credit rating and credit spreads, collateral credit spreads, notional amounts, credit ratings of the referenced entities, expected terms, realized gains (losses) and other settlements, and the issuing company's own credit rating and credit spreads,interest rates and other market factors. With volatility continuingThe components of changes in the market, unrealized gains (losses) onfair value of credit derivatives may fluctuate significantlyrelated to credit derivative revenues and changes in future periods.


Except for net estimated credit impairments (i.e., net expected payments), thelosses are included in Insurance segment results. Non-credit impairment-related changes in unrealized fair value gains and losses on credit derivatives are not included in the Insurance segment measure of adjusted operating income because they do not represent actual claims or losses and are expected to reducereverse to zero as the exposure approaches its maturity date. Changes in the fair value of the Company’s credit derivatives that do not reflect actual or expected claims or credit losses have no impact on the Company’s statutory claims-paying resources, rating agency capital or regulatory capital positions. Changes in expected losses in respect of contracts accounted for asUnrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives are includedmay fluctuate significantly in future periods. Except for underlying credit impairment, which is recognized as loss expense in the discussion of “Economic Loss Development” above.
The impact of changes in credit spreads will vary based upon the volume, tenor, interest rates, and other market conditions at the time these fair values are determined. In addition, since each transaction has unique collateral and structural terms, the underlying change in fair value of each transaction may vary considerably. The fair value of credit derivative contracts also reflects the change in the Company’s own credit cost based on the price to purchase credit protection on AGC and AGM. The Company determines its own credit risk based on quoted CDS prices traded on the Company at each balance sheet date. Generally, a widening of credit spreads of the underlying obligations results in unrealized losses and the tightening of credit spreads of the underlying obligations results in unrealized gains. A widening of the CDS prices traded on AGC and AGM has an effect of offsetting unrealized losses that result from widening general market credit spreads, while a narrowing of the CDS prices traded on AGC and AGM has an effect of offsetting unrealized gains that result from narrowing general market credit spreads.

The valuation of the Company’s credit derivative contracts requires the use of models that contain significant, unobservable inputs, and are classified as Level 3 inInsurance segment, the fair value hierarchy. The models used to determine fair value are primarily developed internally basedadjustments on market conventions for similar transactions that the Company observedcredit derivatives in the past. There has been very limited new issuance activity in this marketinsured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero over the past several years and asremaining term of September 30, 2017, market prices for the Company’s credit derivative contracts were generally not available. Inputs to the estimate of fair value include various market indices, credit spreads, the Company’s own credit spread, and estimated contractual payments. Please refer to Part I,that portfolio. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 7,9, Fair Value Measurement, for additional information.


Net Change in Fair Value of Credit Derivative Gain (Loss)

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Realized gains on credit derivatives$4
 $11
 $15
 $39
Net credit derivative losses (paid and payable) recovered and recoverable and other settlements(5) 4
 4
 8
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements(1)(1) 15
 19
 47
Net unrealized gains (losses):       
Pooled corporate obligations35
 3
 41
 (37)
U.S. RMBS11
 (12) 24
 0
Pooled infrastructure(1) 4
 4
 10
Infrastructure finance0
 1
 2
 0
Other14
 10
 16
 4
Net unrealized gains (losses)59
 6
 87
 (23)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives$58
 $21
 $106
 $24
____________________
(1)Includes realized gains and losses due to terminations and settlements of CDS contracts.



Terminations and Settlements
of Direct Credit Derivative Contracts

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Net par of terminated credit derivative contracts$40
 $1,071
 $273
 $3,507
Realized gains on credit derivatives0
 3
 0
 11
Net credit derivative losses (paid and payable) recovered and recoverable and other settlements(3) 
 (15) 
Net unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives8
 11
 24
 81

During Third Quarter 2017,first quarter 2024 non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains were generated primarily as a result of CDS terminations in the Other sector, run-offtermination of net par outstanding, and tighter implied net spreads. The tighter implied net spreads were primarily a result of price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company’s CDS and the increased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection increased during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM, which management refers to as the CDS spread on AGC and AGM, increased, the implied net spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions decreased.    

certain structured finance policies. During Nine Months 2017,first quarter 2023, non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains were generated primarily as a result of CDS terminations, run-off of net par outstanding, and tighter implied net spreads. The tighter implied spreads were primarily a result of price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company’s CDS and the increased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection increased during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM increased, the implied net spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions decreased.AGC.

During Third Quarter 2016, unrealized fair value gains were generated primarily as a result of CDS terminations in the pooled corporate and other sectors and price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company’s CDS. This was the primary driver of the unrealized fair value gains in the pooled corporate CLO, and other sectors. The unrealized fair value gains were partially offset by unrealized losses resulting from wider implied net spreads across all sectors. The wider implied net spreads were primarily a result of the decreased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name, particularly for the one year CDS spread, as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection decreased significantly during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM decreased, the implied spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions increased.

During Nine Months 2016, unrealized fair value losses were generated primarily in the trust preferred sector, due to wider implied net spreads. The wider implied net spreads were primarily a result of the decreased cost to buy protection in AGC’s and AGM’s name, particularly for the one year and five year CDS spread, as the market cost of AGC’s and AGM’s credit protection decreased during the period. For those CDS transactions that were pricing at or above their floor levels, when the cost of purchasing CDS protection on AGC and AGM decreased, the implied spreads that the Company would expect to receive on these transactions increased. The unrealized fair value losses were partially offset by unrealized fair value gains which resulted from the terminations of several CDS transactions during the period. The majority of the CDS transactions were terminated as a result of settlement agreements with the relevant CDS counterparties.


CDS Spread on AGC and AGM
Quoted price of CDS contract (in basis points)
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of June 30, 2017 As of
December 31, 2016
 As of September 30, 2016 As of
June 30, 2016
 As of
December 31, 2015
Five-year CDS spread:           
AGC190
 136
 158
 170
 265
 376
AGM190
 140
 158
 170
 265
 366
One-year CDS spread           
AGC81
 15
 35
 31
 45
 139
AGM81
 15
 29
 31
 47
 131

Effect of Changes in the Company’s Credit Spread on
Net Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Change in unrealized gains (losses) of credit derivatives:       
Before considering implication of the Company’s credit spreads$38
 $44
 $75
 $85
Resulting from change in the Company’s credit spreads21
 (38) 12
 (108)
After considering implication of the Company’s credit spreads$59
 $6
 $87
 $(23)


Management believes that the trading level of AGC’s and AGM’s credit spreads over the past several years has been due to the correlation between AGC’s and AGM’s risk profile and the current risk profile of the broader financial markets. Offsetting the benefit attributable to AGC’s and AGM’s credit spread were higher credit spreads in the fixed income security markets relative to pre-financial crisis levels. The higher credit spreads in the fixed income security market are due to the lack of liquidity in the high-yield collateralized debt obligations (CDO), trust preferred securities CDOs, and collateralized loan obligation (CLO) markets as well as continuing market concerns over the 2005-2007 vintages of RMBS.

Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities
As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, the Company consolidated 31 and 32 VIEs, respectively. The table below presents the effects on reported GAAP income resulting from consolidating these FG VIEs and eliminating their related insurance and investment amounts. The consolidation of FG VIEs has an effect on net income and shareholders' equity due to:

changes in fair value gains (losses) on FG VIE assets and liabilities,

the eliminations of premiums and losses related to the AGC and AGM FG VIE liabilities with recourse, and

the elimination of investment balances related to the Company’s purchase of AGC and AGM insured FG VIE debt.

Upon consolidation of a FG VIE, the related insurance and, if applicable, the related investment balances, are considered intercompany transactions and therefore eliminated. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 9, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities, for additional information.

Effect of Consolidating FG VIEs on Net Income (Loss)

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs$3
 $(11) $25
 $11
Elimination of insurance and investment balances(4) (6) (10) (16)
Effect on income before tax(1) (17) 15
 (5)
Less: tax provision (benefit)0
 (6) 5
 (2)
Effect on net income (loss)$(1) $(11) $10
 $(3)


Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs represent the net change in fair value on the consolidated FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities. During Third Quarter 2017 and Nine Months 2017, the Company recorded a pre-tax net fair value gain on consolidated FG VIEs of $3 million and $25 million, respectively. During Third Quarter 2017, the primary driver of the gain was price depreciation on the FG VIE recourse liabilities during the quarter resulting from the Company's credit risk. During the Nine Months 2017, the primary driver of the gain is price appreciation on the FG VIE assets resulting from improvements in the underlying collateral.
During Third Quarter 2016, the Company recorded a pre-tax net fair value loss on consolidated FG VIEs of $11 million and during Nine Months 2016, the Company recorded a gain of $11 million. The primary drivers of the loss during Third Quarter 2016 were the net mark-to-market losses due to price depreciation on the FG VIE assets, resulting from declines in value in the underlying collateral, and the price appreciation on the FG VIE recourse liabilities during the quarter, resulting from the Company's credit risk. The primary driver of the Nine Months 2016 gain in fair value of FG VIEs assets and liabilities was net mark-to-market gains due to price appreciation on the FG VIE assets during the nine months period resulting from improvements in the underlying collateral.

Fair Value Gains (Losses) on CCS


The decrease fair    Fair value losses on CCS in first quarter 2024 and first quarter 2023 were primarily due to a tightening in market spreads. Fair value gains (losses) of CCS are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market spreads and interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

Foreign Exchange Gain (Loss) on Remeasurement

    Foreign exchange gains and losses in all periods primarily relate to remeasurement of long-dated premiums receivable, for which the Company's CCS for Third Quarter 2017Company records the present value of future installment premiums, and Nine Months 2017 comparedare mainly due to changes in the exchange rate of the pound sterling and, to a lesser extent, the euro relative to the prior year comparable periods was a resultU.S. dollar. Approximately 68% and 70% of improvementsgross premiums receivable, net of commissions payable as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, are denominated in observed market pricescurrencies other than the U.S. dollar, primarily the pound sterling and euro. Premiums on securities referencingEuropean infrastructure and structured finance transactions typically are paid, in whole or in part, on an installment basis, whereas premiums on U.S. public finance transactions are often paid upfront.

The following table presents the Company. 

Other Operating Expenses
Other operating expenses in Third Quarter 2017 decreased by $7 million due primarily to lower acquisition related expenses and higher rent expense and accelerated amortization of leasehold improvements in 2016foreign exchange rates as a result of the Company's movebalance sheet dates.

Foreign Exchange Rates
U.S. Dollar Per Foreign Currency
As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023As of March 31, 2023As of December 31, 2022
Pound sterling$1.262$1.273$1.234$1.208
Euro$1.079$1.104$1.084$1.071
85

Table of its New York offices. Other operating expenses in Nine Months 2017 decreased by $5 million compared to Nine Months 2016 due primarily to lower rent and depreciation expense, offset in part by higher compensation expense.Contents

Provision for Income Tax
Provision for Income Taxes and Effective Tax Rates

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (dollars in millions)
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes$105
 $1
 $157
 $62
Effective tax rate33.6% 0.3% 18.8% 8.3%



The Company’s effective tax rate reflects the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with U.S. subsidiaries taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 35%, U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. blended marginal corporate tax rate of 19.25% unless taxed as a U.S. controlled foreign corporation, and no taxes for the Company’s Bermuda subsidiaries, which consist of Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re), Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. (AGRO), and Cedar Personnel Ltd., unless subject to U.S tax by election or as a U.S. controlled foreign corporation. AGE the

Company’s U.K. subsidiary, had previously elected under U.S. Internal Revenue Code Section 953(d) to be taxed as a U.S. company. In January 2017, AGE filed a request with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to revoke the election, which was approved in May 2017. As a result of the revocation of the Section 953(d) election, AGE will no longer be liable to pay future U.S. taxes beginning in 2017.

In April 2017, the Company received a final letter from the IRS to close the audit for the period of 2009 - 2012, with no additional findings or changes, and as a result the Company released previously recorded uncertain tax position reserves and accrued interest of approximately $37 million in the second quarter of 2017. The Company’s overall corporate effective tax rate fluctuates based on the distribution of taxable income across these jurisdictions. In each of the periods presented, the portion of taxable income from each jurisdiction varied. For Third Quarter 2017 and Nine Months 2017, the non-taxable book to tax differences were mostly consistent compared with the prior period, with the exception of the benefit on bargain purchase gains from the MBIA UK Acquisition and the CIFG Acquisition in January 2017 and July 2016, respectively.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures
 
To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, theThe Company discloses bothboth: (i) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAPGAAP; and (ii) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of Assured Guaranty.the Company.


By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, theThe Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. Assured Guaranty believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures along with the effect on those measures of consolidating FG VIEs (FG VIE consolidation), provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.


GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain variable interest entities (VIEs) that have issued debt obligations insured bywhere it is deemed to be the Company. However,primary beneficiary which include:
FG VIEs, which the Company does not own such VIEs and where its exposure is limited to its obligation under itsthe financial guaranty insurance contract. Therefore, thecontract, and
CIVs in which certain subsidiaries invest.

The Company had previously removeddiscloses the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation that is embedded in its calculation of itseach non-GAAP financial measures. However, since fourth quarter 2016, basedmeasure, as applicable. The Company believes this information may also be useful to analysts and investors evaluating Assured Guaranty’s financial results. In the case of both the consolidated FG VIEs and the CIVs, the economic effect on the SEC's May 2016 complianceCompany of each of the consolidated FG VIEs and disclosure interpretations,CIVs is reflected primarily in the results of the Insurance segment.

Management of the Company no longer removes the effect of FG VIE consolidation from its publicly disclosed non-GAAP financial measures. This change affects the Company's calculation of operating income (non-GAAP), operating ROE, non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity and non-GAAP adjusted book value. Wherever possible, the Company has separately disclosed the effect of FG VIE consolidation. The prior-year quarterly non-GAAP financial measures have been updated to reflect the revised calculation.
Management and theAGL’s Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses these core financial measures in its decision makingdecision-making process for and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation.

Many investors, analysts and The financial news reporters use non-GAAPmeasures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) adjusted operating shareholders’ equity,income, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation; (2) adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation; (3) adjusted book value per share, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation; and (4) PVP.
    Management believes that many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and/or adjusted book value, each further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation, as the principal financial measuremeasures for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. ManyManagement also believes that many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use non-GAAP adjusted book value,operating shareholders’ equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. OperatingCompany’s capital adequacy.

    Adjusted operating income, further adjusted for the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation, enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.

The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) non-GAAP operating income, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (2) non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity, adjusted to

remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (3) growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.
 
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. ATo the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.
 
Adjusted Operating Income (non-GAAP)


Management believes that adjusted operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwritingoperating results and financial condition of the Company and presents the results of operations of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, as well as other adjustments described below. Management adjustsCompany. Adjusted operating income further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating income measure. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
 
1)
1)    Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

86

2)    Elimination of non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2)
Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
3)
Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
4)
Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
5)Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.


Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss)
to Operating Income (non-GAAP)

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Net income (loss)$208
 $479
 $678
 $684
Less pre-tax adjustments:       
Realized gains (losses) on investments7
 (2) 54
 (6)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives55
 (4) 60
 (32)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS(4) (23) (4) (50)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves18
 (2) 49
 (21)
Total pre-tax adjustments76
 (31) 159
 (109)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments(24) 13
 (51) 37
Operating income (non-GAAP)$156
 $497
 $570
 $756
        
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation (net of tax provision (benefit) of $(1), $(6), $5 and $(2)) included in operating income$(1) $(11) $9
 $(4)


Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value
     Management believes that non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS, that are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss, along with other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating shareholders' equity and core adjusted book value.

Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of non-GAAP adjusted book value (see below). Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:loss.
 
1)
Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments
3)    Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS that are recognized in net income. Such amounts are heavily affected by and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company’s credit spreads, price indications on the Company’s publicly traded debt and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
2)
Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
3)
Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

4)    Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves that are recognized in net income. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
5)    The tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.



See “— Results of Operations — Reconciliation to GAAP” for a reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value
     Management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss.

    Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
1)    Elimination of non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
2)    Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company’s credit spreads, price indications on the Company’s publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

3)    Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore would not recognize an economic gain or loss.

4)     The tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Management uses non-GAAP adjusted book value, further adjusted forto remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in non-GAAP adjustedAdjusted book value per share, further adjusted for FG VIE and CIV consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that non-GAAP adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Non-GAAP adjustedAdjusted book value is non-GAAPadjusted operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:
 
1)
Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.
2)
Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue on non-financial guaranty contracts. See below.
3)
Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4)    Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.
87

2)    Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue. See below.

3)    Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the present value of the expected future net earned premiums, net of the present value of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4)     The tax asset or liabilityeffects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.


The unearned premiums and revenues included in non-GAAP adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current non-GAAP adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.



Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL
to Non-GAAPAdjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value
 As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
 TotalPer ShareTotalPer Share
 (dollars in millions, except share amounts)
Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL$5,629 $102.19 $5,713 $101.63 
Less pre-tax adjustments:
Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives44 0.79 34 0.61 
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS0.05 13 0.22 
Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio(393)(7.13)(361)(6.40)
Less taxes43 0.79 37 0.66 
Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity5,932 107.69 5,990 106.54 
Pre-tax adjustments:
Less: Deferred acquisition costs164 2.99 161 2.87 
Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue191 3.47 199 3.54 
Plus: Net deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed3,393 61.61 3,436 61.12 
Plus taxes(687)(12.47)(699)(12.41)
Adjusted book value$8,665 $157.31 8,765 155.92 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in:
Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity (net of tax provision (benefit) of $1 and $1)$$0.06 $$0.07 
Adjusted book value (net of tax provision (benefit) of $(1) and $0)(3)(0.05)— — 
 As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
 After-Tax Per Share After-Tax Per Share
 (dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
Shareholders’ equity$6,878
 $58.32
 $6,504
 $50.82
Less pre-tax adjustments:       
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives(129) (1.09) (189) (1.48)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS58
 0.49
 62
 0.48
Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect506
 4.29
 316
 2.47
Less taxes(147) (1.24) (71) (0.54)
Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity6,590
 55.87
 6,386
 49.89
Pre-tax adjustments:     
  
Less: Deferred acquisition costs106
 0.89
 106
 0.83
Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue144
 1.22
 136
 1.07
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed3,091
 26.21
 2,922
 22.83
Plus taxes(899) (7.63) (832) (6.50)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value$8,820
 $74.78
 $8,506
 $66.46
        
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(1) and $4)$3
 $0.01
 (7) (0.06)
        
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value (net of tax benefit of $7 and $12)$(13) $(0.11) (24) (0.18)


Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue
 
Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the present value of estimated net future estimated revenue for non-financial guaranty insurance contracts. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the net present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s non-financial guarantythese contracts (other than credit derivatives with net expected losses), net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and istaxes.

    Future installment premiums are discounted at 6%. Estimated netthe approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than Loss Mitigation Securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Net present value of estimated future revenue for an obligation may change from period to period due to a change in the discount rate or due to a change in estimated net future revenue for the obligation, which may change due to
88

changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure.


PVP or Present Value of New Business Production


Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production forin the CompanyInsurance segment by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premiumpremiums and fees on existing contracts as to which(which may result from supplements or fees or from the issuer has the right to call thenot calling an insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contractthe Company projected would be called), regardless of form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and the netchanges in fair value of credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses)) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums. 

    Future installment premiums are discounted in each case, at 6%.the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than certain fixed-maturity securities such as Loss Mitigation Securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk freerisk-free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of

the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction.

    Actual future earned or writteninstallment premiums and Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses) may differ from those estimated in the Company’s PVP calculation due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. 


Reconciliation of GWP to PVP


 Third Quarter 2017 Third Quarter 2016
 Public Finance Structured Finance   Public Finance Structured Finance  
 U.S. Non - U.S. U.S. Non - U.S. Total U.S. Non - U.S. U.S. Non - U.S. Total
 (in millions)
GWP$37
 $8
 $1
 $(1) $45
 $24
 $(9) $1
 $0
 $16
Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)2
 8
 1
 (1) 10
 (1) (9) 1
 0
 (9)
Upfront GWP35
 
 
 
 35
 25
 
 
 
 25
Plus: Installment premium PVP4
 4
 0
 
 8
 0
 2
 23
 
 25
PVP$39
 $4
 $0
 $
 $43
 $25
 $2
 $23
 $
 $50

Nine Months 2017 Nine Months 2016
Public Finance Structured Finance   Public Finance Structured Finance  
U.S. Non - U.S. U.S. Non - U.S. Total U.S. Non - U.S. U.S. Non - U.S. Total
(in millions)
First Quarter 2024First Quarter 2024First Quarter 2023
Public Finance
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.Non - U.S.U.S.Non - U.S.TotalU.S.Non - U.S.U.S.Non - U.S.Total
(in millions)(in millions)
GWP$132
 $92
 $3
 $8
 $235
 $72
 $6
 $(5) $(2) $71
Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)(1) 90
 3
 (2) 90
 (17) 6
 (5) (2) (18)
Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments (1)
Upfront GWP133
 2
 
 10
 145
 89
 
 0
 
 89
Plus: Installment premium PVP4
 56
 5
 2
 67
 0
 16
 24
 
 40
Plus: Installment premiums and other (2)
PVP$137
 $58
 $5
 $12
 $212
 $89
 $16
 $24
 $
 $129
___________________
(1)
(1)    Includes the present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.


(2)    Includes the present value of future premiums and fees on new business paid in installments, discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than certain fixed-maturity securities such as Loss Mitigation Securities. First quarter 2023 also includes the present value of future premiums and fees associated with other guaranties written by the Company that, under GAAP, are accounted for under Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees.

Insured Portfolio
Financial Guaranty Exposure


The following tables present information in respect of the financial guaranty insured portfolio to supplement the disclosures and discussion provided in Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 3, Outstanding Exposure.

The following table presents the financial guaranty portfolio by asset classsector, net of cessions to reinsurers. It includes all financial guaranty contracts outstanding as of the dates presented, regardless of the form written (i.e., credit derivative form or traditional financial guaranty insurance form) or the applicable accounting model (i.e., insurance, derivative or FG VIE consolidation). The Company excludes amounts attributable to loss mitigation securities (unless otherwise indicated) from par and principal or interest (debt service) outstanding, which amounts are included in the investment portfolio, because it manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As
89



Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Net Par Outstanding and Average Internal Rating by Sector

 As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
Sector(dollars in millions)
Public finance: 
U.S. public finance: 
General obligation$74,884 $74,609 
Tax backed32,866 33,060 
Municipal utilities28,657 29,300 
Transportation22,393 22,052 
Healthcare12,532 12,604 
Infrastructure finance8,737 8,796 
Higher education7,225 7,250 
Housing revenue1,152 1,152 
Investor-owned utilities328 329 
Renewable energy167 167 
Other public finance954 970 
Total U.S. public finance189,895 190,289 
Non-U.S public finance: 
Regulated utilities20,427 20,545 
Infrastructure finance15,028 15,430 
Sovereign and sub-sovereign9,658 9,869 
Renewable energy2,005 2,030 
Pooled infrastructure1,119 1,133 
Total non-U.S. public finance48,237 49,007 
Total public finance238,132 239,296 
Structured finance: 
U.S. structured finance: 
Insurance securitizations4,557 4,379 
RMBS1,684 1,774 
Pooled corporate obligations565 631 
Financial products469 464 
Consumer receivables287 314 
Subscription finance facilities225 178 
Other structured finance856 892 
Total U.S. structured finance8,643 8,632 
Non-U.S. structured finance: 
Subscription finance facilities612 444 
Pooled corporate obligations412 425 
RMBS242 252 
Other structured finance103 104 
Total non-U.S. structured finance1,369 1,225 
Total structured finance10,012 9,857 
Total net par outstanding$248,144 $249,153 

  As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
Sector 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
Avg.
Rating
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
Avg.
Rating
  (dollars in millions)
Public finance:      
  
U.S.:      
  
General obligation $93,904
 A- $107,717
 A
Tax backed 45,795
 A- 49,931
 A-
Municipal utilities 33,883
 A- 37,603
 A
Transportation 17,876
 A- 19,403
 A-
Healthcare 9,856
 A 11,238
 A
Higher education 8,911
 A 10,085
 A
Infrastructure finance 4,185
 BBB+ 3,769
 BBB+
Housing 1,221
 A- 1,559
 A-
Investor-owned utilities 587
 BBB+ 697
 BBB+
Other public finance—U.S. 1,998
 A 2,796
 A
Total public finance—U.S. 218,216
 A- 244,798
 A
Non-U.S.:      
  
Infrastructure finance 18,803
 BBB 10,731
 BBB
Regulated utilities 15,847
 BBB+ 9,263
 BBB+
Pooled infrastructure 1,553
 AAA 1,513
 AAA
Other public finance 6,524
 A 4,874
 A
Total public finance—non-U.S. 42,727
 BBB+ 26,381
 BBB+
Total public finance 260,943
 A- 271,179
 A-
Structured finance:      
  
U.S.:      
  
RMBS 5,064
 BBB- 5,637
 BBB-
Insurance securitizations 2,308
 AA- 2,308
 A+
Pooled corporate obligations 2,042
 AA- 10,050
 AAA
Consumer receivables 1,630
 A- 1,652
 BBB+
Financial products 1,432
 AA- 1,540
 AA-
Commercial receivables 162
 BBB 230
 BBB-
Other structured finance—U.S. 504
 A+ 640
 AA-
Total structured finance—U.S. 13,142
 A- 22,057
 A+
Non-U.S.:      
  
RMBS 639
 A- 604
 A-
Pooled corporate obligations 371
 AA- 1,535
 AA
Commercial receivables 309
 A 356
 BBB+
Other structured finance 363
 A 587
 AA
Total structured finance—non-U.S. 1,682
 A 3,082
 AA-
Total structured finance 14,824
 A- 25,139
 AA-
Total net par outstanding $275,767
 A- $296,318
 A



The following tables set forthSecond-to-pay insured par outstanding represents transactions the Company has insured that are already insured by another financial guaranty insurer and where the Company’s netobligation to pay under its insurance of such transactions arises only if both the obligor on the underlying insured obligation and the primary financial guaranty portfolio by internal rating.
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
Asinsurer default. The Company underwrites such transactions based on the underlying insured obligation without regard to the primary financial guaranty insurer and internally rates the transaction the higher of September 30, 2017

the rating of the underlying obligation and the rating of the primary
90

  
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 %
  (dollars in millions)
AAA $915
 0.4% $2,523
 5.9% $2,333
 17.8% $419
 25.0% $6,190
 2.2%
AA 33,614
 15.4
 301
 0.7
 4,853
 36.9
 76
 4.5
 38,844
 14.1
A 124,332
 57.0
 13,657
 32.0
 1,778
 13.5
 268
 15.9
 140,035
 50.8
BBB 52,021
 23.8
 23,965
 56.1
 724
 5.5
 762
 45.3
 77,472
 28.1
BIG 7,334
 3.4
 2,281
 5.3
 3,454
 26.3
 157
 9.3
 13,226
 4.8
Total net par outstanding (1) $218,216
 100.0% $42,727
 100.0% $13,142
 100.0% $1,682
 100.0% $275,767
 100.0%
_____________________
(1)The September 30, 2017 amounts include $13.0 billion of net par from the MBIA UK Acquisition. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 13, Reinsurancefinancial guarantor. The second-to-pay insured par outstanding as of March 31, 2024 and Other Monoline Exposures, for the effect of commutations on net par outstanding.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2016 2023 was $4.2 billion and $4.3 billion, respectively.

  
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 % 
Net Par
Outstanding
 %
  (dollars in millions)
AAA $2,066
 0.8% $2,221
 8.4% $9,757
 44.2% $1,447
 47.0% $15,491
 5.2%
AA 46,420
 19.0
 170
 0.6
 5,773
 26.2
 127
 4.1
 52,490
 17.7
A 133,829
 54.7
 6,270
 23.8
 1,589
 7.2
 456
 14.8
 142,144
 48.0
BBB 55,103
 22.5
 16,378
 62.1
 879
 4.0
 759
 24.6
 73,119
 24.7
BIG 7,380
 3.0
 1,342
 5.1
 4,059
 18.4
 293
 9.5
 13,074
 4.4
Total net par outstanding $244,798
 100.0% $26,381
 100.0% $22,057
 100.0% $3,082
 100.0% $296,318
 100.0%









Exposure to Puerto Rico
         
The Company has insured exposure to general obligation bondsfollowing tables present information in respect of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico orexposures to supplement the Commonwealth)disclosures and various obligations of its related authoritiesdiscussions provided in “—Liquidity and public corporations aggregating $5.0 billion net par as of September 30, 2017, all of which are rated BIG. In recent years, Puerto Rico has experienced significant general fund budget deficitsCapital Resources—Insurance Subsidiaries, Financial Guaranty Policies” below and a challenging economic environment. More recently, Hurricane Maria created additional challenges for Puerto Rico. Beginning on January 1, 2016, a number of Puerto Rico credits have defaulted on bond payments, and the Company has now paid claims on most of its Puerto Rico credits as shown in the table "Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding" below. Additional information about recent developments in Puerto Rico and the individual credits insured by the Company may be found in Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 4,3, Outstanding Exposure.

The Company groups its Puerto Rico exposure into three categories:

Constitutionally Guaranteed. The Company includes in this category public debt benefiting from Article VI of the Constitution of the Commonwealth, which expressly provides that interest and principal payments on the public debt are to be paid before other disbursements are made.

Public Corporations – Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations for which applicable law permits the Commonwealth to claw back, subject to certain conditions and for the payment of public debt, at least a portion of the revenues supporting the bonds the Company insures. As a constitutional condition to clawback, available Commonwealth revenues for any fiscal year must be insufficient to pay Commonwealth debt service before the payment of any appropriations for that year. The Company believes that this condition has not been satisfied to date, and accordingly that the Commonwealth has not to date been entitled to claw back revenues supporting debt insured by the Company. Prior to the enactment of the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA), the Company sued various Puerto Rico governmental officials in the United States District Court, District of Puerto Rico asserting that Puerto Rico's attempt to “claw back” pledged taxes is unconstitutional, and demanding declaratory and injunctive relief.

Other Public Corporations. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations that are supported by revenues it does not believe are subject to clawback.



Exposure to Puerto Rico (1)by Company
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024

  Net Par Outstanding  
  AGM AGC 

AG Re
 Eliminations (2) 
Total
Net Par Outstanding (3)
 
Gross
Par Outstanding
  (in millions)
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed            
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (4) (5) $670
 $343
 $407
 $(1) $1,419
 $1,469
Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA) (4) 9
 141
 0
 (9) 141
 146
Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback            
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue) (4) (5) 252
 511
 204
 (85) 882
 913
PRHTA (Highway revenue) (4) (5) 358
 93
 44
 
 495
 556
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA) (4) 
 152
 
 
 152
 152
Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA) (4) 
 17
 1
 
 18
 18
Other Public Corporations            
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) (4) (5) 547
 73
 233
 
 853
 870
Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) 
 284
 89
 
 373
 373
Municipal Finance Agency (MFA) 221
 54
 85
 
 360
 416
Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA) (4) (5) 263
 
 9
 
 272
 272
University of Puerto Rico (U of PR) 
 1
 
 
 1
 1
Total exposure to Puerto Rico $2,320
 $1,669
 $1,072
 $(95) $4,966
 $5,186
Net Par Outstanding
 AGMAGCAG ReEliminations (1)Total
Net Par Outstanding
Gross
Par Outstanding
 (in millions)
Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures
PREPA$377 $67 $180 $— $624 $633 
Total Defaulted377 67 180  624 633 
Resolved Puerto Rico Exposures (2)
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue)12 130 74 (12)204 204 
PRHTA (Highway revenue)21 — 24 24 
Total Resolved33 132 75 (12)228 228 
Non-Defaulting Puerto Rico Exposures (3)
Municipal Finance Agency (MFA)84 18 — 108 114 
Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) and University of Puerto Rico (U of PR)— — — 
Total Non-Defaulting84 7 18  109 115 
Total exposure to Puerto Rico$494 $206 $273 $(12)$961 $976 
 ___________________
(1)The September 30, 2017 amounts include $389 million (which comprises $36 million of General Obligation Bonds, $134 million of PREPA, $144 million PRHTA (Highways revenue), and $75 million of MFA) related to 2017 commutations of previously ceded business. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for more information. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for more information.
(2)
(1)    Net par outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary.
(3)Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $25 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $56 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $19 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the COFINA, current net par of $4 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $4 million relate to the PRHTA, and current net par of $2 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $2 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.
(4)
As of the date of this filing, the Company has paid claims on these credits.
(5)As of the date of this filing, the seven-member federal financial oversight board established by PROMESA has certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for these credits.


(2)    Resolved pursuant to the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions. Consideration (e.g. Toll Bonds and CVIs) received under the HTA Plan related to the remaining insured exposure is reported in FG VIEs’ assets (see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles).

(3)    All debt service on these insured exposures have been paid to date without any insurance claim being made on the Company.

91

The following table showstables show the scheduled amortization of the general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its relatedPuerto Rico’s authorities and public corporations insured by the Company. The Company guarantees payments of interest and principaldebt service when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only pay the shortfall between the principal and interestdebt service due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors.     


Amortization Schedule
of Net Par Outstanding of Puerto Rico
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024

Scheduled Net Par Amortization
 2024 (2Q)2024 (3Q)2024 (4Q)20252026202720282029 - 20332034 - 20382039 - 2041Total
 (in millions)
Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures
PREPA$— $93 $— $68 $105 $105 $68 $176 $$— $624 
Total Defaulted 93  68 105 105 68 176 9  624 
Resolved Puerto Rico Exposures
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)— — — — — — — — 107 97 204 
PRHTA (Highway revenue)— — — — — — — 16 — 24 
Total Resolved       8 123 97 228 
Non-Defaulting Puerto Rico Exposures
MFA— 16 — 16 35 15 13 13 — — 108 
PRASA and U of PR— — — — — — — — — 
Total Non-Defaulting 17  16 35 15 13 13   109 
Total$ $110 $ $84 $140 $120 $81 $197 $132 $97 $961 
 Scheduled Net Par Amortization
 2017 (4Q)2018 (1Q)2018 (2Q)2018 (3Q)2018 (4Q)2019202020212022 - 20262027 - 20312032 - 20362037 - 20412042 - 2047Total
 (in millions)
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed              
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds$0
$0
$0
$78
$0
$87
$141
$15
$226
$278
$489
$105
$
$1,419
PBA




3
5
13
24
42
54


141
Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback    







 







 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)0
0
0
38

32
25
18
119
156
295
194
5
882
PRHTA (Highway revenue)


20

21
22
35
106
73
218


495
PRCCDA








19
133


152
PRIFA


2




2


14

18
Other Public Corporations    







 







 
PREPA


5

26
48
28
390
330
26
0

853
PRASA







53
57

2
261
373
MFA


57

55
45
40
130
33



360
COFINA0
0
0
0
0
(1)(1)(2)(5)(7)34
102
152
272
U of PR


0

0
0
0
0
0
1


1
Total$0
$0
$0
$200
$0
$223
$285
$147
$1,045
$981
$1,250
$417
$418
$4,966



Amortization Schedule
of Net Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico
As of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024

Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
 2024 (2Q)2024 (3Q)2024 (4Q)20252026202720282029 - 20332034 - 20382039 - 2041Total
 (in millions)
Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures
PREPA$$105 $$92 $126 $122 $80 $199 $$— $739 
Total Defaulted3 105 3 92 126 122 80 199 9  739 
Resolved Puerto Rico Exposures
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)— — 11 11 11 11 53 143 106 351 
PRHTA (Highway revenue)— — 15 18 — 38 
Total Resolved 6  12 12 12 12 68 161 106 389 
Non-Defaulting Puerto Rico Exposures
MFA— 19 — 20 39 17 14 14 — — 123 
PRASA and U of PR— — — — — — — — — 
Total Non-Defaulting 20  20 39 17 14 14   124 
Total$3 $131 $3 $124 $177 $151 $106 $281 $170 $106 $1,252 

 Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
 2017 (4Q)2018 (1Q)2018 (2Q)2018 (3Q)2018 (4Q)2019202020212022 - 20262027 - 20312032 - 20362037 - 20412042 - 2047Total
 (in millions)
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed              
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds$0
$37
$0
$114
$0
$156
$206
$74
$494
$475
$595
$111
$
$2,262
PBA
4

4

10
12
20
54
58
62


224
Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback    







 







 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)0
23
0
61

76
67
59
306
308
403
229
5
1,537
PRHTA (Highway revenue)
13

33

47
46
58
198
147
253


795
PRCCDA
3

3

7
7
7
35
50
152


264
PRIFA
0

2

1
1
1
6
4
4
16

35
Other Public Corporations    







 







 
PREPA3
18
3
22
3
65
87
63
528
380
29
0

1,201
PRASA
10

10

19
19
19
147
129
68
70
327
818
MFA
9

67

70
58
50
157
36



447
COFINA0
6
0
6
0
13
13
13
70
68
102
162
160
613
U of PR
0

0

0
0
0
0
0
1


1
Total$3
$123
$3
$322
$3
$464
$516
$364
$1,995
$1,655
$1,669
$588
$492
$8,197


Exposure to Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities
The tables below provide information onIn the risk ratings and certain other risk characteristicsfourth quarter of 2023, all of the Company’s financial guaranty insurance, FG VIE and credit derivative RMBS exposures. AsToll Bonds in the Puerto Rico Trusts were called, resulting in cash proceeds of September 30, 2017, U.S. RMBS exposures represent 2%$154 million. Such cash proceeds comprised the vast majority of the total net par outstanding, and BIG U.S. RMBS represent 22% of total BIG net par outstanding. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid, for a discussion of expected losses to be paid on U.S. RMBS exposures.
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2017
Ratings: 
Prime
First Lien
 
Alt-A
First Lien
 
Option
ARMs
 
Subprime
First Lien
 
Second
Lien
 
Total Net Par
Outstanding
  (in millions)
AAA $5
 $153
 $26
 $1,325
 $0
 $1,509
AA 17
 217
 32
 246
 
 512
A 10
 
 0
 82
 0
 92
BBB 11
 0
 
 69
 1
 81
BIG 115
 511
 63
 1,080
 1,100
 2,869
Total exposures $157
 $881
 $121
 $2,803
 $1,101
 $5,064


Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2017

Year
insured:
 
Prime
First Lien
 
Alt-A
First Lien
 
Option
ARMs
 
Subprime
First Lien
 
Second
Lien
 
Total Net Par
Outstanding
  (in millions)
2004 and prior $21
 $39
 $13
 $847
 $56
 $975
2005 78
 312
 27
 158
 229
 804
2006 59
 60
 21
 610
 318
 1,069
2007 
 471
 59
 1,116
 498
 2,144
2008 
 
 
 71
 
 71
Total exposures $157
 $881
 $121
 $2,803
 $1,101
 $5,064

Exposure to the U.S. Virgin Islands
The Company has $498 million insured net par outstanding to the U.S. Virgin Islands and its related authorities (USVI), of which it rates $224 million BIG. The $274 million USVI net par the Company rates investment grade is comprised primarily of bonds secured by a lien on matching fund revenues related to excise taxes on products producedassets in the USVI and exported to the U.S., primarily rum. The $224 million BIG USVI net par comprises (a) Public Finance Authority bonds secured by a gross receipts tax and the general obligation, full faith and credit pledge of the USVI and (b) bonds of the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority secured by a net revenue pledge of the electric system.
Hurricane Irma caused significant damage in St. John and St. Thomas, while Hurricane Maria made landfall on St. Croix as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing loss of life and substantial damage to St. Croix’s businesses and infrastructure, including the power grid. The USVI is benefiting from the federal response to this year’s hurricanes and has made its debt service payments to date.

Exposure to Selected European Countries

The European countries where the Company has exposure and believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Turkey (collectively, the Selected European Countries). The Company’s direct economic exposure to the Selected European Countries, based on par, is shown in the following tables, both gross and net of ceded reinsurance.

Gross Direct Economic Exposure
to Selected European Countries(1)
As of September 30, 2017
 Hungary Italy Portugal Spain Turkey Total
 (in millions)
Sub-sovereign exposure(2)$214
 $1,217
 $76
 $474
 $
 $1,981
Non-sovereign exposure(3)125
 465
 
 
 200
 790
Total$339
 $1,682
 $76
 $474
 $200
 $2,771
Total BIG$262
 $
 $76
 $474
 $
 $812


Net Direct Economic Exposure
to Selected European Countries(1)
As of September 30, 2017

 Hungary Italy Portugal Spain Turkey Total
 (in millions)
Sub-sovereign exposure(2)$214
 $1,034
 $75
 $456
 $
 $1,779
Non-sovereign exposure(3)125
 449
 
 
 200
 774
Total$339
 $1,483
 $75
 $456
 $200
 $2,553
Total BIG$262
 $
 $75
 $456
 $
 $793
____________________
(1)
While exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations are in various currencies, primarily euros.

(2)
Sub-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes transactions backed by receivables from, or supported by, sub-sovereigns, which are governmental or government-backed entities other than the ultimate governing body of the country.

(3)
Non-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes debt of regulated utilities, RMBS and diversified payment rights (DPR) securitizations.


The $200 million net insured par exposure in Turkey is to DPR securitizations sponsored by a major Turkish bank. These DPR securitizations were established outside of Turkey and involve payment orders in U.S. dollars, pounds sterling and euros from persons outside of Turkey to beneficiaries in Turkey who are customers of the sponsoring bank. The sponsoring bank's correspondent banks have agreed to remit all such payments to a trustee-controlled account outside Turkey, where debt service payments for the DPR securitization are given priority over payments to the sponsoring bank.

The Company has excluded from the exposure tables above its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through policies it provides on pooled corporate and commercial receivables transactions. The Company calculates indirect exposure to a country by multiplying the par amount of a transaction insured by the Company times the percent of the relevant collateral pool reported as having a nexus to the country. On that basis, the Company has calculated exposure of $46 million to Selected European Countries in transactions with $0.7 billion of net par outstanding.

Non-Financial Guaranty Insurance

The Company provided capital relief triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance on approximately $540 million of exposure as of September 30, 2017 and $390 millionPuerto Rico Trusts as of December 31, 2016. The triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance exposure is expected to increase to approximately $1.2 billion prior to September 30, 2036.

2023. In addition, the Company started providing reinsurance on aircraft RVI policies in the first quarter of 2017 and had net exposure of $116 million toJanuary 2024, such reinsurance as of September 30, 2017.

The capital relief triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance and aircraft residual value reinsurance are all rated investment grade internally. This non-financial guaranty exposure has a similar risk profile to the Company's other structured finance investment grade exposure written in financial guaranty form.

Monoline and Reinsurer Exposures
The Company has exposure to other monolines and reinsurers through reinsurance arrangements (both as a ceding company and as an assuming company) and in "second-to-pay" transactions. A number of the monolines and reinsurers to which the Company has exposure have experienced financial distress and, as a result, have been downgraded by the rating agencies. In addition, state insurance regulators have intervened with respect to some of these distressed insurers, in some instances limiting the amount of claim payments they are permittedproceeds were used to pay currently in cash.

Ceded par outstanding represents the portion of insured risk ceded to external reinsurers. Under these relationships, the Company cedes a portion of its insured risk in exchange for a premium paid to the reinsurer. The Company remains primarily

liable for all risks it directly underwrites and is required to pay all gross claims. It then seeks reimbursement from the reinsurer for its proportionate share of claims. The Company may be exposed to risk for this exposure if it were required to pay the gross claims and not be able to collect ceded claims from an assuming company experiencing financial distress. In accordance with U.S. statutory accounting requirements and U.S. insurance laws and regulations, in order for the Company to receive credit for liabilities ceded to reinsurers domiciled outside of the U.S., such reinsurers must secure their liabilities to the Company. All of the unauthorized reinsurers in the table below are required to post collateral for the benefit of the Company in an amount at least equal to the sum of their ceded unearned premium reserve, loss reserves and contingency reserves, all calculated on a statutory basis of accounting. In addition, certain authorized reinsurers in the table below post collateral on terms negotiated with the Company. Collateral may be in the form of letters of credit or trust accounts. The total collateral posted by all non-affiliated reinsurers as of September 30, 2017 was approximately $123 million.

Assumed par outstanding represents the amount of par assumed by the Company from third party insurers and reinsurers, including other monoline financial guaranty companies. Under these relationships, the Company assumesdown a portion of the ceding company’s insured risk in exchange for a premium.liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts. The Company mayremaining liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts will be exposed to risk in this portfolio in thatpaid by the Company may be required to pay losses without a corresponding premium in circumstances whereU.S. Insurance Subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the ceding company is experiencing financial distress and is unable to pay premiums.credit of PRHTA.

    
In "second-to-pay" transactions, the Company provides insurance on an obligation that is already insured by another financial guarantor. In that case, if the underlying obligor and the financial guarantor both fail to pay an amount scheduled to be paid, the Company would be obligated to pay. The Company underwrites these transactions based on the underlying obligation, without regard to the financial guarantor. Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for additional information.


Reinsurance and Other Exposures to Monolines


92
  Par Outstanding
  As of September 30, 2017
Reinsurer 
Ceded Par
Outstanding (1)
 
Assumed Par
Outstanding
 
Second-to-
Pay Insured
Par
Outstanding (2)
  (in millions)
Reinsurers rated investment grade:      
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation $
 $3,245
 $2,730
Subtotal 
 3,245
 2,730
Reinsurers rated BIG or not rated:      
American Overseas Reinsurance Company Limited (3) 2,445
 
 
Syncora Guarantee Inc. (3) 1,994
 674
 1,156
ACA Financial Guaranty Corp. 208
 
 10
Ambac Assurance Corporation and Ambac Assurance UK Limited 112
 4,902
 1,927
MBIA Insurance Corporation 
 137
 565
Financial Guaranty Insurance Company and FGIC UK Limited 
 275
 821
Ambac Assurance Corp. Segregated Account 
 567
 51
Subtotal 4,759
 6,555
 4,530
Other (3) 52
 111
 410
Total $4,811
 $9,911
 $7,670

Table of Contents
____________________
(1)Of the total ceded par to reinsurers rated BIG or not rated, $305 million is rated BIG.
(2)The par on second-to-pay exposure where the primary insurer and underlying transaction rating are both BIG, and/or not rated, is $774 million.

(3)The total collateral posted by all non-affiliated reinsurers required to post, or that had agreed to post, collateral as of September 30, 2017 was approximately $123 million.


Liquidity and Capital Resources

Liquidity Requirements and Sources
AGL and its U.S. Holding Company SubsidiariesCompanies
AGL directly owns (i) AG Re, an insurance company domiciled in Bermuda; and (ii) AGUS, a U.S. holding company with public debt outstanding. AGUS directly owns: (i) AGC, an insurance company domiciled in Maryland; and (ii) AGMH, a U.S. holding company with public debt outstanding. AGMH directly owns AGM, an insurance subsidiary domiciled in New York. AGUS and AGMH are collectively referred to as the U.S. Holding Companies.

Sources and Uses of Funds
 
The liquidity of AGL AGUS and AGMHits U.S. Holding Companies is largely dependent on dividends and other distributions from their operating subsidiaries (see “— Insurance Subsidiaries — Distributions from Insurance Subsidiaries” below for a description of dividend and other capital distribution restrictions) and their access to external financing. The operating liquidity requirements of these entities includeAGL and the payment of operating expenses,U.S. Holding Companies include:

principal and interest on debt issued by AGUS and AGMH, and AGMH;
dividends on AGL'sAGL’s common shares. shares; and
the payment of operating expenses.

AGL and its holding company subsidiariesU.S. Holding Companies may also require liquidity to to:

make periodic capital investments in their operating subsidiaries, subsidiaries;
fund acquisitions of new businesses;
purchase or redeem the Company’s outstanding Company debtdebt; or in the case of AGL, to
repurchase itsAGL’s common shares pursuant to itsAGL’s share repurchase authorization.

In the ordinary course of business, the Company evaluates its liquidity needs and capital resources in light of holding company expenses and dividend policy, as well as rating agency considerations. The Company also subjects its cash flow projections and its assets to a stress test, maintaining a liquid asset balance of one timeand a half times its stressed operating company net cash flows. Management believes that AGL will have sufficient liquidity to satisfy its needs over the next twelve months. See “—Dividends From Subsidiaries” below Overview— Key Business Strategies, Capital Management” above for a discussioninformation on common share repurchases.

Long-Term Debt Obligations
The Company has outstanding long-term debt issued by the U.S. Holding Companies. See Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities, of the dividend restrictionsCompany’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and — Guarantor and U.S. Holding Companies' Summarized Financial Information, below.    

93

U.S. Holding Companies
Long-Term Debt and Intercompany Loans
As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Effective Interest RateFinal MaturityPrincipal Amount
AGUS - long-term debt  
6.125% Senior Notes6.125%2028$350 $350 
3.15% Senior Notes3.15%2031500 500 
7% Senior Notes6.40%2034200 200 
3.6% Senior Notes3.60%2051400 400 
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures3 month CME Term SOFR +2.64%2066150 150 
AGUS long-term debt1,600 1,600 
AGUS - intercompany loans from:
AGC and AGM3.50%2029250 250 
AGRO5.00%202820 20 
AGUS intercompany loans270 270 
Total AGUS long-term debt and intercompany loans1,870 1,870 
AGMH 
Junior Subordinated Debentures (1)6.40%2066300 300 
Total AGMH long-term debt300 300 
AGMH’s long-term debt purchased by AGUS (2)(154)(154)
U.S. Holding Company long-term debt$2,016 $2,016 
____________________
(1)    If the AGMH Junior Subordinated Debentures are outstanding after December 15, 2036, then the principal amount of the outstanding debentures will bear interest at One-Month Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Term Secured Overnight Finance Rate (SOFR) plus 2.33%.
(3)     Represents principal amount of Junior Subordinated Debentures issued by AGMH that has been purchased by AGUS.

From time to time, AGL and its insurance companysubsidiaries have entered into intercompany loan facilities. For example, on October 25, 2013, AGL, as borrower, and AGUS, as lender, entered into a revolving credit facility pursuant to which AGL may, from time to time, borrow for general corporate purposes. Under the credit facility, AGUS committed to lend a principal amount not exceeding $225 million in the aggregate. The commitment under the revolving credit facility terminates on October 25, 2033 (the loan commitment termination date). The unpaid principal amount of each loan will bear semi-annual interest at a fixed rate equal to 100% of the then applicable interest rate as determined under Internal Revenue Code Section 1274(d). Accrued interest on all loans will be paid on the last day of each June and December and at maturity. AGL must repay unpaid principal amounts of the loans, if any, by the third anniversary of the loan commitment termination date. AGL has not drawn upon the credit facility.

For more information, see the Company’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Part II, Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities.
94

Guarantor and U.S. Holding Companies’ Summarized Financial Information

AGL fully and unconditionally guarantees the payment of the principal of, and interest on, the $1,450 million aggregate principal amount of notes issued by the U.S. Holding Companies, the $450 million aggregate principal amount of junior subordinated debentures issued by the U.S. Holding Companies, and the intercompany loans. The following tables include summarized financial information for AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies, excluding their investments in subsidiaries.



As of March 31, 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Assets
Fixed-maturity securities (1)$17 $
Investment in Sound Point— 417 
Short-term investments, other invested assets and cash55 239 
Receivables from affiliates (2)55 
Receivable from U.S. Holding Companies95 — 
Other assets47 
Liabilities
Long-term debt— 1,695 
Loans payable to affiliates— 270 
Payable to affiliates (2)26 22 
Payable to AGL— 95 
Other liabilities88 
____________________
(1)    As of March 31, 2024, weighted average durations of AGL’s and the U.S. Holding Companies’ fixed-maturity securities (excluding AGUS’s investment in AGMH’s debt) were 9.5 years and 4.1 years, respectively.
(2)    Represents receivable and payables with non-guarantor subsidiaries.

First Quarter 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Revenues$$
Expenses
Interest expense— 25 
Other expenses13 
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes and equity in earnings (losses) of investees(12)(27)
Net income (loss)(12)(22)

95

The following table presents significant cash flow items for AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies (other than investment income, operating expenses and taxes) related to distributions from subsidiaries and outflows for debt service, dividends and other capital management activities.

AGL and U.S. Holding Company SubsidiariesCompanies
SignificantSelected Cash Flow Items

First Quarter 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Dividends received from subsidiaries (1)$192 $83 
Distributions from equity method investees (2)— 10 
Interest paid— (22)
Investments in subsidiaries— (5)
Dividends paid to AGL— (145)
Dividends paid(19)— 
Repurchases of common shares (3)(129)— 
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Intercompany sources (uses):       
Distributions to AGL from:       
AG Re$45
 $35
 $125
 $85
AGUS70
 120
 390
 223
Distributions to AGUS from:       
AGC15
 15
 66
 38
AGMH55
 55
 128
 158
Distributions from AGUS to:       
AGMH
 
 (25) 
Distributions to AGMH from:       
AGM63
 65
 142
 192
External sources (uses):       
Dividends paid to AGL shareholders(17) (17) (53) (52)
Repurchases of common shares(1)(80) (55) (431) (190)
Interest paid by AGMH and AGUS(8) (7) (53) (55)
Purchase of AGMH's debt by AGUS(22) 
 (27) 
____________________
(1)Please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 17, Shareholders' Equity, for additional information about share repurchases and authorizations.
(1)    AGL’s dividends include dividends from AGUS.
Distributions From Subsidiaries(2)    Represents distributions from Sound Point.

The Company anticipates that for the next twelve months, amounts paid by AGL’s direct and indirect insurance company subsidiaries as dividends or other distributions will be a major source of its liquidity. The insurance company subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends depends upon their financial condition, results of operations, cash requirements, and compliance with rating agency requirements, and is also subject to restrictions contained in the insurance laws and related regulations of their states of domicile. Dividend restrictions applicable to AGC, AGM, MAC and to AG Re, are described in Part I,(3)    See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 11, Insurance Company Regulatory Requirements.12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about share repurchases and authorizations.

Dividend restrictions by insurance company subsidiary are as follows:

The maximum amount available during 2017 for AGM to distribute as dividends without regulatory approval is estimated to be approximately $196 million. Of such $196 million, $54 million is available for distribution in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The maximum amount available during 2017 for AGC to distribute as ordinary dividends is approximately $107 million. Of such $107 million, approximately $41 million is available for distribution in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Through August 25, 2017, MAC paid $36 million in dividends based on dividend capacity at that point. After the $250 million share repurchase on September 25, 2017, MAC has no additional dividend capacity for the remainder of 2017.

Based on the applicable law and regulations, in 2017 AG Re has the capacity to (i) make capital distributions in an aggregate amount up to $128 million without the prior approval of the Bermuda Monetary Authority and (ii) declare and pay dividends in an aggregate amount up to approximately $314 million as of September 30, 2017. Such dividend capacity is further limited by the actual amount of AG Re’s unencumbered assets, which amount changes from time to time due in part to collateral posting requirements. As of September 30, 2017, AG Re had unencumbered assets of approximately $572 million.


Generally, dividends paid by a U.S. company to a Bermuda holding company are subject to a 30% withholding tax. After AGL became tax resident in the U.K., it became subject to the tax rules applicable to companies resident in the U.K., including the benefits afforded by the U.K.’s tax treaties. The income tax treaty between the U.K. and the U.S. reduces or eliminates the U.S. withholding tax on certain U.S. sourced investment income (to 5% or 0%), including dividends from U.S. subsidiaries to U.K. resident persons entitled to the benefits of the treaty.
On June 30, 2016, MAC obtained approval from
For more information, see also Part II, Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities, of the NYDFS to repay its $300 million surplus note to MAC Holdings and its $100 million surplus note (plus accrued interest) to AGM. Accordingly,Company’s Annual Report on June 30, 2016, MAC transferred cash and/or marketable securities to (i) MAC Holdings in an aggregate amount equal to $300 million, and (ii) AGM in an aggregate amount of $102.5 million. MAC Holdings, upon receipt of such $300 million from MAC, distributed cash and/or marketable securities in an aggregate amount of $300 million to its shareholders, AGM and AGC, in proportion to their respective 61% and 39% ownership interests such that AGM received $182 million and AGC received $118 million.Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.
On November 25, 2016, the New York Superintendent approved AGM's request to repurchase 125 of its shares of common stock from its direct parent, AGMH, for approximately $300 million. AGM implemented the stock redemption plan in December 2016. Each share repurchased by AGM was retired and ceased to be an authorized share. Pursuant to AGM's Amended and Restated Charter, the par value of AGM's remaining shares of common stock issued and outstanding increased automatically in order to maintain AGM's total paid-in capital at $15 million and its authorized capital at $20 million.
On August 17, 2017, the New York Superintendent approved MAC's request to repurchase 64,322 of its shares of
common stock from its direct parent, MAC Holdings, for approximately $250 million. MAC implemented the stock
redemption plan on September 25, 2017, transferring approximately $104 million in cash and $146 million in marketable
securities to MAC Holdings, which then distributed such assets to its shareholders, AGM and AGC, in proportion to their
respective 61% and 39% ownership interests, such that AGM received approximately $152 million ($6 million in cash and
$146 million in securities) and AGC received approximately $98 million (all in cash). Each share repurchased by MAC was
retired and ceased to be an authorized share. Pursuant to MAC's Amended and Restated Charter, the par value of MAC's
remaining shares of common stock issued and outstanding increased automatically in order to maintain MAC's total paid-in
capital at $15 million.

External FinancingLong-Term Debt Obligations

From time to time, AGLThe Company has outstanding long-term debt issued by the U.S. Holding Companies. See Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and its subsidiaries have sought external debt or equity financing in order to meet their obligations. External sourcesSupplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities, of financing may or may not be available to the Company,Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and if available, the cost— Guarantor and U.S. Holding Companies' Summarized Financial Information, below.    

93


U.S. Holding Companies
Long-Term Debt and Intercompany Loans and Guarantees

As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Effective Interest RateFinal MaturityPrincipal Amount
AGUS - long-term debt  
6.125% Senior Notes6.125%2028$350 $350 
3.15% Senior Notes3.15%2031500 500 
7% Senior Notes6.40%2034200 200 
3.6% Senior Notes3.60%2051400 400 
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures3 month CME Term SOFR +2.64%2066150 150 
AGUS long-term debt1,600 1,600 
AGUS - intercompany loans from:
AGC and AGM3.50%2029250 250 
AGRO5.00%202820 20 
AGUS intercompany loans270 270 
Total AGUS long-term debt and intercompany loans1,870 1,870 
AGMH 
Junior Subordinated Debentures (1)6.40%2066300 300 
Total AGMH long-term debt300 300 
AGMH’s long-term debt purchased by AGUS (2)(154)(154)
U.S. Holding Company long-term debt$2,016 $2,016 
____________________
(1)    If the AGMH Junior Subordinated Debentures are outstanding after December 15, 2036, then the principal amount of the outstanding debentures will bear interest at One-Month Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Term Secured Overnight Finance Rate (SOFR) plus 2.33%.
(3)     Represents principal amount of Junior Subordinated Debentures issued by AGMH that has been purchased by AGUS.

From time to time, AGL and its subsidiaries have entered into intercompany loan facilities. For example, on October 25, 2013, AGL, as borrower, and AGUS, as lender, entered into a revolving credit facility pursuant to which AGL may, from time to time, borrow for general corporate purposes. Under the credit facility, AGUS committed to lend a principal amount not exceeding $225 million in the aggregate. SuchThe commitment under the revolving credit facility terminates on October 25, 20182033 (the loan commitment termination date). The unpaid principal amount of each loan will bear semi-annual interest at a fixed rate equal to 100% of the then applicable Federal short-term or mid-term interest rate as the case may be, as determined under Internal Revenue Code Section 1274(d). Accrued interest on all loans will be paid on the last day of each June and December and at maturity. AGL must repay the then unpaid principal amounts of the loans, if any, by the third anniversary of the loan commitment termination date. AGL has not drawn upon the credit facility.


In addition, in 2012 AGUS borrowed $90 million from its affiliate AGRO to fundFor more information, see the acquisitionCompany’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Part II, Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities.
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Guarantor and unpaid interest, and the parties agreed to extend the maturity date of the loan from May 2017 to November 2019. As of September 30, 2017, $70 million remained outstanding.U.S. Holding Companies’ Summarized Financial Information


Furthermore, AGL fully and unconditionally guarantees the payment of the principal of, and interest on, the $1,130$1,450 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes issued by AGUS and AGMH, andthe U.S. Holding Companies, the $450 million aggregate principal amount of junior subordinated debentures issued by AGUSthe U.S. Holding Companies, and AGMH,the intercompany loans. The following tables include summarized financial information for AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies, excluding their investments in each case, as describe under "Commitments and Contingencies -- Long-Term Debt Obligations" below.subsidiaries.


Cash and Investments
As of March 31, 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Assets
Fixed-maturity securities (1)$17 $
Investment in Sound Point— 417 
Short-term investments, other invested assets and cash55 239 
Receivables from affiliates (2)55 
Receivable from U.S. Holding Companies95 — 
Other assets47 
Liabilities
Long-term debt— 1,695 
Loans payable to affiliates— 270 
Payable to affiliates (2)26 22 
Payable to AGL— 95 
Other liabilities88 

____________________
(1)    As of September 30, 2017, AGL had $47 million in cashMarch 31, 2024, weighted average durations of AGL’s and short-term investments. AGUS and AGMH had a total of $59 million in cash and short-term investments. In addition, the Company's U.S. holding companies have $80 million inHolding Companies’ fixed-maturity securities (excluding AGUS'AGUS’s investment in AGMH'sAGMH’s debt) were 9.5 years and 4.1 years, respectively.
(2)    Represents receivable and payables with weighted average durationnon-guarantor subsidiaries.

First Quarter 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Revenues$$
Expenses
Interest expense— 25 
Other expenses13 
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes and equity in earnings (losses) of investees(12)(27)
Net income (loss)(12)(22)

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Insurance Company Subsidiaries

Liquidity of the insurance company subsidiaries is primarily used to pay for:
operating expenses,
claims on the insured portfolio,
posting of collateral in connection with credit derivatives and reinsurance transactions,
reinsurance premiums,
dividends to AGL, AGUS and/or AGMH, as applicable,
principal of and, where applicable, interest on surplus notes, and
capital investments in their own subsidiaries, where appropriate.

Management believes that its subsidiaries’ liquidity needs for the next twelve months can be met from current cash, short-term investments and operatingThe following table presents significant cash flow including premium collectionsitems for AGL and coupon payments as well as scheduled maturitiesthe U.S. Holding Companies (other than investment income, operating expenses and paydownstaxes) related to distributions from their respective investment portfolios. The Company targets a balance of its most liquid assets including cashsubsidiaries and short-term securities, Treasuries, agency RMBS and pre-refunded municipal bonds equal to 1.5 times its projected operating company cash flow needs over the next four quarters. The Company intends to hold and has the ability to hold temporarily impairedoutflows for debt securities until the date of anticipated recovery.
Beyond the next twelve months, the ability of the operating subsidiaries to declare and payservice, dividends may be influenced by a variety of factors, including market conditions, insurance regulations and rating agency capital requirements and general economic conditions.
Insurance policies issued provide, in general, that payments of principal, interest and other amounts insured may not be accelerated by the holder of the obligation. Amounts paid by the Company therefore are typically in accordance with the obligation’s original payment schedule, unless the Company accelerates such payment schedule, at its sole option.capital management activities.

 Payments made in settlement of the Company’s obligations arising from its insured portfolio may,AGL and often do, vary significantly from year-to-year, depending primarily on the frequency and severity of payment defaults and whether the Company chooses to accelerate its payment obligations in order to mitigate future losses.U.S. Holding Companies

Selected Cash Flow Items

Claims (Paid) Recovered

 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
Public finance$(222) $(196) $(251) $(213)
Structured finance:       
U.S. RMBS13
 5
 40
 (100)
Other structured finance0
 (23) (14) (47)
Structured finance13
 (18) 26
 (147)
Claims (paid) recovered, net of reinsurance(1)$(209) $(214) $(225) $(360)
First Quarter 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Dividends received from subsidiaries (1)$192 $83 
Distributions from equity method investees (2)— 10 
Interest paid— (22)
Investments in subsidiaries— (5)
Dividends paid to AGL— (145)
Dividends paid(19)— 
Repurchases of common shares (3)(129)— 
____________________
(1)Includes $3 million paid and $3 million paid for consolidated FG VIEs for Third Quarter 2017 and 2016, respectively, and $7 million paid and $9 million paid for consolidated FG VIEs for Nine Months 2017 and 2016, respectively.
(1)    AGL’s dividends include dividends from AGUS.
In addition, the Company has net par exposure to the general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.0 billion, all of which are BIG. Puerto Rico has experienced significant general fund budget deficits in recent years. Beginning in 2016, the Commonwealth and certain related authorities and public corporations have defaulted on obligations to make payments on its debt. In addition to high debt levels, Puerto Rico faces a challenging economic environment. Information regarding the Company's exposure to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and its related authorities and public corporations is set forth in Part I,(2)    Represents distributions from Sound Point.
(3)    See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 4, Outstanding Exposure.12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about share repurchases and authorizations.


As of September 30, 2017, the Company had exposure of approximately $574 millionGenerally, dividends paid by a U.S. company to a long-term infrastructure project that was financed by bonds that mature prior to the expiration of the project concession. The Company expects the cash flows from the project to be sufficient to repay all of the debt over the life of the project concession, and also expects the debt to be refinanced in the market at or prior to its maturity. If the issuer is unable to refinance the debt due to market conditions, the Company may have to pay claims when the debt matures from 2018 to 2022, and then recover from cash flows produced by the project in the future. The Company generally projects that in most scenarios it will be fully reimbursed for such claim payments. However, the recovery of such amounts is uncertain and may take from 10 to 35 years, depending on the performance of the underlying collateral.

In connection with the acquisition of AGMH, AGM agreed to retain the risks relating to the debt and strip policy portions of the leveraged lease business. In a leveraged lease transaction, a tax-exempt entity (such as a transit agency) transfers tax benefits to a tax-paying entity by transferring ownership of a depreciable asset, such as subway cars. The tax-exempt entity then leases the asset back from its new owner.
If the lease is terminated early, the tax-exempt entity must make an early termination payment to the lessor. A portion of this early termination payment is funded from amounts that were pre-funded and invested at the closing of the leveraged lease transaction (along with earnings on those invested funds). The tax-exempt entity is obligated to pay the remaining, unfunded portion of this early termination payment (known as the strip coverage) from its own sources. AGM issued financial guaranty insurance policies (known as strip policies) that guaranteed the payment of these unfunded strip coverage amounts to the lessor, in the event that a tax-exempt entity defaulted on its obligation to pay this portion of its early termination payment. Following such events, AGM can then seek reimbursement of its strip policy payments from the tax-exempt entity, and can also sell the transferred depreciable asset and reimburse itself from the sale proceeds.

Currently, all the leveraged lease transactions in which AGM acts as strip coverage provider are breaching a rating trigger related to AGM andBermuda holding company are subject to early termination. However, early termination of a lease does not result30% withholding tax. After AGL became tax resident in a draw on the AGM policy ifU.K., it became subject to the tax-exempt entity makestax rules applicable to companies resident in the required termination payment. If allU.K., including the leases were to terminate earlybenefits afforded by the U.K.’s tax treaties. The income tax treaty between the U.K. and the tax-exempt entities do not makeU.S. reduces or eliminates the required early termination payments, then AGM would be exposedU.S. withholding tax on certain U.S. sourced investment income (to 5% or 0%), including dividends from U.S. subsidiaries to possible liquidity claims on gross exposure of approximately $865 million as of September 30, 2017. To date, noneU.K. resident persons entitled to the benefits of the leveraged lease transactions that involve AGM has experienced an early termination due to a lease defaulttreaty.
For more information, see also Part II, Item 8. Financial Statements and a claim on the AGM policy. At September 30, 2017, approximately $1.6 billion of cumulative strip par exposure had been terminated since 2008 on a consensual basis. The consensual terminations have not resulted in any claims on AGM. 


The termsSupplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities, of the Company’s CDS contracts generally are modified from standard CDS contract forms approved by International Swaps and Derivative Association, Inc. (ISDA) in order to provideAnnual Report on Form 10-K for payments on a scheduled "pay-as-you-go" basis and to replicate the terms of a traditional financial guaranty insurance policy. Some contracts the Company entered into as the credit protection seller, however, utilize standard ISDA settlement mechanics of cash settlement (i.e., a process to value the loss of market value of a reference obligation) or physical settlement (i.e., delivery of the reference obligation against payment of principal by the protection seller) in the event of a “credit event,” as defined in the relevant contract. Cash settlement or physical settlement generally requires the payment of a larger amount, prior to the maturity of the reference obligation, than would settlement on a “pay-as-you-go” basis.

The transaction documentation for $502 million of the CDS insured by AGC requires AGC to post collateral, in some cases subject to a cap, to secure its obligation to make payments under such contracts. As of September 30, 2017, AGC was posting $18 million of collateral to satisfy these requirements.

Consolidated Cash Flows
Consolidated Cash Flow Summary
 Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017
2016
 (in millions)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities before effects of FG VIE consolidation$150
 $(153) $338
 $(205)
Effect of FG VIE consolidation6
 11
 16
 16
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities - reported156
 (142) 354
 (189)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities before effects of FG VIE consolidation(161) (320) 124
 382
Effect of FG VIE consolidation32
 25
 108
 551
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities - reported(129) (295) 232
 933
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities before effects of FG VIE consolidation(119) (68) (521) (240)
Effect of FG VIE consolidation(38) (36) (124) (567)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities - reported (1)(157) (104) (645) (807)
Effect of exchange rate changes1
 (1) 4
 (4)
Cash and restricted cash at beginning of period201
 641
 127
 166
Total cash and restricted cash at the end of the period$72
 $99
 $72
 $99
____________________
(1)Claims paid on consolidated FG VIEs are presented in the consolidated cash flow statements as a component of paydowns on FG VIE liabilities in financing activities as opposed to operating activities.


Excluding net cash flows from consolidated FG VIEs, cash inflows from operating activities increased in Nine Months 2017 compared with Nine Months 2016 due primarily to lower net claim payments, commutation premiums received and higher premium collections on new business in 2017.

Investing activities were primarily net sales (purchases) of fixed-maturity and short-term investment securities. Investing cash flows in Nine Months 2017 and Nine Months 2016 include inflows of $117 million and $590 million from paydowns on FG VIE assets, respectively. The decrease in inflows from FG VIEs was due to the proceeds from a paydown of a large transaction in Nine Months 2016. In Nine Months 2017, cash acquired in the MBIA UK Acquisition was $95 million. Consideration paid for MBIA UK was in the form of Zohar II Notes. In Third Quarter 2016 the Company paid $435 million, net of cash acquired, to acquire CIFGH.


Financing activities consisted primarily of paydowns of FG VIE liabilities and share repurchases. Financing cash flows in Nine Months 2017 and Nine Months 2016 include outflows of $124 million and $567 million for FG VIEs, respectively. The decrease in outflows from FG VIEs was due to the paydown of a large transaction in Nine Months 2016. The remaining cash flows from financing activities relate mainly to share repurchases, which were $431 million and $190 million in Nine Months 2017 and Nine Months 2016, respectively.

From October 1, 2017 through November 2, 2017, the Company repurchased an additional $20 million of common shares. The Board of Directors authorized, on November 1, 2017, an additional $300 million of share repurchases As of November 2, 2017, the Company had remaining authorization to purchase common shares of $398 million. For more information about the Company's share repurchases and authorizations, please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 17, Shareholders' Equity.

Commitments and Contingencies
Leases
AGL and its subsidiaries lease office space and certain other items. Future cash payments associated with contractual obligations pursuant to operating leases for office space have not materially changed sinceyear ended December 31, 2016.2023.


Long-Term Debt Obligations
 
The Company has outstanding principal and interest paid on long-term debt were as follows:

Principal Outstanding
issued by the U.S. Holding Companies. See Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Interest Paid onSupplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities, of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and — Guarantor and U.S. Holding Companies' Summarized Financial Information, below.    

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 Principal Amount Interest Paid
 As of September 30, As of December 31, Third Quarter Nine Months
 2017 2016 2017
2016 2017 2016
 (in millions)
AGUS$850
 $850
 $1
 $
 $23
 $25
AGMH730
 730
 7
 7
 30
 30
AGM8
 9
 0
 0
 0
 0
Purchased debt (1)(28) 
 0
 
 0
 
Total$1,560
 $1,589
 $8
 $7
 $53
 $55
U.S. Holding Companies
Long-Term Debt and Intercompany Loans
As of March 31, 2024As of December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Effective Interest RateFinal MaturityPrincipal Amount
AGUS - long-term debt  
6.125% Senior Notes6.125%2028$350 $350 
3.15% Senior Notes3.15%2031500 500 
7% Senior Notes6.40%2034200 200 
3.6% Senior Notes3.60%2051400 400 
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures3 month CME Term SOFR +2.64%2066150 150 
AGUS long-term debt1,600 1,600 
AGUS - intercompany loans from:
AGC and AGM3.50%2029250 250 
AGRO5.00%202820 20 
AGUS intercompany loans270 270 
Total AGUS long-term debt and intercompany loans1,870 1,870 
AGMH 
Junior Subordinated Debentures (1)6.40%2066300 300 
Total AGMH long-term debt300 300 
AGMH’s long-term debt purchased by AGUS (2)(154)(154)
U.S. Holding Company long-term debt$2,016 $2,016 
____________________
(1)    In 2017, AGUS purchased $28 million principal amount ofIf the AGMH Junior Subordinated Debentures issued by AGMH.

Issued by AGUS:

7% Senior Notes.  On May 18, 2004, AGUS issued $200 million of 7% Senior Notes due 2034 for net proceeds of $197 million. Although the coupon on the Senior Notes is 7%, the effective rate is approximately 6.4%, taking into account the effect of a cash flow hedge.
5% Senior Notes. On June 20, 2014, AGUS issued $500 million of 5% Senior Notes due 2024 for net proceeds of $495 million. The net proceeds from the sale of the notes were used for general corporate purposes, including the purchase of common shares of AGL.

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures.  On December 20, 2006, AGUS issued $150 million of Debentures due 2066. The Debentures paid a fixed 6.4% rate of interest until December 15, 2016, and thereafter pay a floating rate of interest, reset quarterly, at a rate equal to three month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus a margin equal to 2.38%. AGUS may select at one or more times to defer payment of interest for one or more consecutive periods for up to ten years. Any unpaid interest bears interest at the then applicable rate. AGUS may not defer interest past the maturity date.


Issued by AGMH:
6 7/8% QUIBS.  On December 19, 2001, AGMH issued $100 million face amount of 6 7/8% QUIBS due December 15, 2101, which are callable without premium or penalty in whole or in part.
6.25% Notes.  On November 26, 2002, AGMH issued $230 million face amount of 6.25% Notes due November 1, 2102, which are callable without premium or penalty in whole or in part.
5.6% Notes.  On July 31, 2003, AGMH issued $100 million face amount of 5.6% Notes due July 15, 2103, which are callable without premium or penalty in whole or in part.
Junior Subordinated Debentures.  On November 22, 2006, AGMH issued $300 million face amount of Junior Subordinated Debentures with a scheduled maturity date of December 15, 2036 and a final repayment date of December 15, 2066. The final repayment date of December 15, 2066 may be automatically extended up to four times in five-year increments provided certain conditions are met. The debentures are redeemable, in whole or in part, at any time prior to December 15, 2036 at their principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest to the date of redemption or, if greater, the make-whole redemption price. Interest on the debentures will accrue from November 22, 2006 to December 15, 2036 at the annual rate of 6.4%. If any amount of the debentures remains outstanding after December 15, 2036, then the principal amount of the outstanding debentures will bear interest at One-Month Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Term Secured Overnight Finance Rate (SOFR) plus 2.33%.
(3)     Represents principal amount of Junior Subordinated Debentures issued by AGMH that has been purchased by AGUS.

From time to time, AGL and its subsidiaries have entered into intercompany loan facilities. For example, on October 25, 2013, AGL, as borrower, and AGUS, as lender, entered into a floatingrevolving credit facility pursuant to which AGL may, from time to time, borrow for general corporate purposes. Under the credit facility, AGUS committed to lend a principal amount not exceeding $225 million in the aggregate. The commitment under the revolving credit facility terminates on October 25, 2033 (the loan commitment termination date). The unpaid principal amount of each loan will bear semi-annual interest at a fixed rate equal to one-month LIBOR plus 2.215% until repaid. AGMH may elect100% of the then applicable interest rate as determined under Internal Revenue Code Section 1274(d). Accrued interest on all loans will be paid on the last day of each June and December and at one ormaturity. AGL must repay unpaid principal amounts of the loans, if any, by the third anniversary of the loan commitment termination date. AGL has not drawn upon the credit facility.

For more times to deferinformation, see the Company’s 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Part II, Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities.
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Guarantor and U.S. Holding Companies’ Summarized Financial Information

AGL fully and unconditionally guarantees the payment of the principal of, and interest on, the $1,450 million aggregate principal amount of notes issued by the U.S. Holding Companies, the $450 million aggregate principal amount of junior subordinated debentures issued by the U.S. Holding Companies, and the intercompany loans. The following tables include summarized financial information for oneAGL and the U.S. Holding Companies, excluding their investments in subsidiaries.

As of March 31, 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Assets
Fixed-maturity securities (1)$17 $
Investment in Sound Point— 417 
Short-term investments, other invested assets and cash55 239 
Receivables from affiliates (2)55 
Receivable from U.S. Holding Companies95 — 
Other assets47 
Liabilities
Long-term debt— 1,695 
Loans payable to affiliates— 270 
Payable to affiliates (2)26 22 
Payable to AGL— 95 
Other liabilities88 
____________________
(1)    As of March 31, 2024, weighted average durations of AGL’s and the U.S. Holding Companies’ fixed-maturity securities (excluding AGUS’s investment in AGMH’s debt) were 9.5 years and 4.1 years, respectively.
(2)    Represents receivable and payables with non-guarantor subsidiaries.

First Quarter 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Revenues$$
Expenses
Interest expense— 25 
Other expenses13 
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes and equity in earnings (losses) of investees(12)(27)
Net income (loss)(12)(22)

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The following table presents significant cash flow items for AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies (other than investment income, operating expenses and taxes) related to distributions from subsidiaries and outflows for debt service, dividends and other capital management activities.

AGL and U.S. Holding Companies
Selected Cash Flow Items
First Quarter 2024
AGLU.S. Holding Companies
(in millions)
Dividends received from subsidiaries (1)$192 $83 
Distributions from equity method investees (2)— 10 
Interest paid— (22)
Investments in subsidiaries— (5)
Dividends paid to AGL— (145)
Dividends paid(19)— 
Repurchases of common shares (3)(129)— 
____________________
(1)    AGL’s dividends include dividends from AGUS.
(2)    Represents distributions from Sound Point.
(3)    See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about share repurchases and authorizations.

Generally, dividends paid by a U.S. company to a Bermuda holding company are subject to a 30% withholding tax. After AGL became tax resident in the U.K., it became subject to the tax rules applicable to companies resident in the U.K., including the benefits afforded by the U.K.’s tax treaties. The income tax treaty between the U.K. and the U.S. reduces or eliminates the U.S. withholding tax on certain U.S. sourced investment income (to 5% or 0%), including dividends from U.S. subsidiaries to U.K. resident persons entitled to the benefits of the treaty.
For more consecutiveinformation, see also Part II, Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 12, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities, of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.

External Financing

From time to time, AGL and its subsidiaries have sought external debt or equity financing in order to meet their obligations. External sources of financing may or may not be available to the Company and, if available, the cost of such financing may not be acceptable to the Company.

Insurance Subsidiaries

The Company has several insurance subsidiaries. The U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries consist of AGM and AGC. AGM owns: (i) AGUK, an insurance subsidiary domiciled in the U.K; and (ii) AGE, an insurance company domiciled in France. AGUK and AGE are collectively referred to as the European Insurance Subsidiaries. AG Re is an insurance company domiciled in Bermuda, which owns AGRO, an insurance subsidiary, also domiciled in Bermuda.

Sources and Uses of Funds

Liquidity of the insurance subsidiaries is primarily used to pay for:

operating expenses,
claims on the insured portfolio,
dividends or other distributions to parent,
reinsurance premiums,
principal of, and interest periodson, surplus notes, where applicable, and
capital investments in their own subsidiaries and in alternative investments, where appropriate.

96

    Management believes that the insurance subsidiaries’ liquidity needs for the next twelve months can be met from current cash, short-term investments and operating cash flow, including premium collections and coupon payments as well as scheduled maturities and paydowns from their respective investment portfolios. The Company generally targets a balance of its most liquid assets including cash and short-term securities, U.S. Treasuries, agency RMBS and pre-refunded municipal bonds equal to 1.5 times its projected operating company cash flow needs over the next four quarters. As of March 31, 2024, the Company intended to hold and had the ability to hold securities in an unrealized loss position until the date of anticipated recovery of amortized cost.

Beyond the next twelve months, the ability of the operating subsidiaries to declare and pay dividends may be influenced by a variety of factors, including market conditions, general economic conditions, and, in the case of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries, insurance regulations and rating agency capital requirements.

Financial Guaranty Policies

Insurance policies issued provide, in general, that payments of principal, interest and other amounts insured may not be accelerated by the holder of the obligation. Amounts paid by the Company therefore are typically in accordance with the obligation’s original payment schedule, unless the Company accelerates such payment schedule, at its sole option. Premiums received on financial guaranty contracts are paid either upfront or in installments over the life of the insured obligations.

Payments made in settlement of the Company’s obligations arising from its insured portfolio may, and often do, not exceed ten years. Invary significantly from year to year, depending primarily on the frequency and severity of payment defaults and whether the Company chooses to accelerate its payment obligations in order to mitigate future losses. For example, the Company made substantial claim payments in 2022 in connection with the completionresolution of this offering, AGMH entered into a replacement capital covenant forcertain Puerto Rico credits. The Company is continuing its efforts to resolve the benefitone remaining unresolved Puerto Rico insured exposure that is in payment default, PREPA. The Company had $624 million in insured net par outstanding of personsPREPA obligations as of March 31, 2024. For more information, see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.
The terms of the Company’s credit default swaps (CDS) contracts generally are modified from standard CDS contract forms approved by International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. such that buy, hold or sell a specified series of AGMH long-term indebtedness ranking seniorthe circumstances giving rise to the debentures. UnderCompany’s obligation to make loss payments are similar to those for its financial guaranty insurance contracts. The documentation for certain CDS were negotiated to require the covenant,Company to also pay if the debentures will not be repaid, redeemed, repurchasedobligor becomes bankrupt or defeased by AGMH or any of its subsidiaries on or beforeif the datereference obligation were restructured. Furthermore, some CDS documentation requires the Company to make a payment due to an event that is twenty yearsunrelated to the performance of the obligation referenced in the credit derivative. If events of default or termination events specified in the credit derivative documentation were to occur, the Company may be required to make a cash termination payment to its swap counterparty upon such termination. Any such payment would probably occur prior to the final repayment date, exceptmaturity of the reference obligation and be in an amount larger than the amount due for that period on a “pay-as-you-go” basis.

Distributions From Insurance Subsidiaries to Holding Companies

    The Company anticipates that, for the extent that AGMH has received proceeds fromnext twelve months, amounts paid by AGL’s direct and indirect insurance subsidiaries as dividends or other distributions will be a major source of the sale of replacement capital securities.holding companies’ liquidity. The proceeds from this offering were usedinsurance subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends depends upon their financial condition, results of operations, cash requirements, other potential uses for such funds and compliance with rating agency requirements, and is also subject to restrictions contained in the insurance laws and related regulations of their states of domicile. For more information, see Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 15, Insurance Company Regulatory Requirements, of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 for a complete discussion of the Company’s dividend restrictions applicable to the shareholders of AGMH.AGC, AGM, AG Re and AGRO.
    
    Dividend restrictions by insurance subsidiary are as follows:

The maximum amount available during 2024 for AGM (a subsidiary of AGMH) to distribute as dividends without regulatory approval is approximately $267 million of which approximately $2 million is available for distribution in the second quarter of 2024.

The maximum amount available during 2024 for AGC (a subsidiary of AGUS) to distribute as ordinary dividends is approximately $117 million of which approximately $24 million is available for distribution in the second quarter of 2024.

97

Based on the applicable law and regulations, in 2024 AG Re (a subsidiary of AGL) paid dividends of $47 million in the first three months of the year and has the capacity to (i) make capital distributions in an aggregate amount up to $129 million without the prior approval of the Bermuda Monetary Authority and (ii) declare and pay dividends in an aggregate amount up to approximately $226 million as of March 31, 2024. Such dividend capacity is further limited by (i) the actual amount of AG Re’s unencumbered assets, which amount changes from time to time due in part to collateral posting requirements and which was approximately $97 million as of March 31, 2024, and (ii) the amount of statutory surplus, which as of March 31, 2024 was $20 million.

Distributions From Insurance Company Subsidiaries
to Holding Companies
First Quarter
20242023
(in millions)
Dividends paid by AG Re to AGL$47 $— 
Dividends paid by AGC to AGUS35 20 
Dividends paid by AGM to AGMH47 40 

Committed Capital Securities


Each of AGC and AGM have entered into put agreements withis party to an arrangement that enables it to access, at its discretion, up to $200 million of capital, at any time, and has the right to use such capital for any purpose, including to pay claims.

The arrangement entails four separate custodial trusts allowing(Woodbourne Capital Trust I, II, III and IV) relating to AGC and four custodial trusts (Sutton Capital Trust I, II, III and IV) relating to AGM, each of which issued $50 million face amount of “committed capital securities” and invested the proceeds of that issuance in eligible assets that would enable the trust to have the cash necessary to respond to AGC’s or AGM’s exercise, respectively, of a put option.

The put option consists of a right that each of AGC and AGM respectively,has, pursuant to separate put agreements that AGC and AGM entered into with each of the trusts, to issue an aggregate of $200to each trust $50 million of non-cumulative redeemable perpetual preferred securities to the trustsstock, in exchange for cash. The custodial trusts were created for the primary purpose of issuing $50 million facean equivalent amount of CCS, investing the proceeds in high-quality assetscash (i.e., an aggregate of $200 million for each of AGC and entering into put options withAGM). When AGC or AGM as applicable. The Company does not consider itself to be the primary beneficiary of the trusts and the trusts are not consolidated in Assured Guaranty's financial statements.

The trusts provide AGC and AGM access to new equity capital at their respective sole discretion through the exercise of the put options. Upon AGC's or AGM's exercise ofexercises its put option, the relevant trust willtrust(s) must liquidate itsthe portfolio of eligiblehigh-quality, liquid assets that it currently maintains and use the liquidation proceeds to purchase the AGC or AGM preferred stock, as applicable. AGC or AGM may use the proceeds from its sale of preferred stock to the trusts for any purpose, including the payment of claims.

The put agreements have no scheduled termination date or maturity. However,maturity, but may be terminated upon the occurrence of certain specified events.

None of the events that would give rise to a termination of the put agreements have occurred. Accordingly, each put agreement will terminate if (subject to certain grace periods) specified events occur. Bothof AGC and AGM continue to havecurrently has the ability to exercise their respective put options and cause the related trusts to purchase their preferred stock.raise up to $200 million of capital at any time.


Prior to 2008 or 2007, the amounts paid on the CCS were established through an auction process. All of those auctions failed in 2008 or 2007, and the rates paid on the CCS increased to their respective maximums. The annualized rate on the AGC CCS is one-month LIBOR plus 250 basis points, and the annualized rate on the AGM Committed Preferred Trust Securities (CPS) is one-month LIBOR plus 200 basis points.

Investment Portfolio

The Company’s principal objectives in managing its investment portfolio are toto: support the highest possible ratings for each operating company, to manage investment risk within the context of the underlying portfolio of insurance risk, to maintain sufficient liquidity to cover unexpected stress in the insurance portfolio, and to maximize after-tax net investment income.
The Company’s fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments had a duration Approximately 61% of 5.4 years as of September 30, 2017 and 5.3 years as of December 31, 2016. Generally,the total investment portfolio is managed by external parties. In accordance with the Company’s fixed-maturity securities are designated as available-for-sale. For more information about the Investment Portfolio and a detailed descriptioninvestment guidelines, each of the three external investment managers is required to maintain the Company’s valuation of investments please refer to Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 10, Investments and Cash.

Fixed-Maturity Securities and Short-Term Investments
by Security Type

 As of September 30, 2017 As of December 31, 2016
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Estimated
Fair Value
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Fixed-maturity securities: 
  
  
  
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$5,445
 $5,705
 $5,269
 $5,432
U.S. government and agencies256
 270
 424
 440
Corporate securities1,932
 1,976
 1,612
 1,613
Mortgage-backed securities(1):       
RMBS866
 881
 998
 987
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)551
 562
 575
 583
Asset-backed securities682
 852
 835
 945
Foreign government securities313
 300
 261
 233
Total fixed-maturity securities10,045
 10,546
 9,974
 10,233
Short-term investments948
 949
 590
 590
Total fixed-maturity and short-term investments$10,993
 $11,495
 $10,564
 $10,823
 ____________________
(1)Government-agency obligations were approximately 39% of mortgage backed securities as of September 30, 2017 and 42% as of December 31, 2016, based on fair value.
The following tables summarize, for all fixed-maturity securities in an unrealized loss position as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, the aggregate fair value and gross unrealized loss by length of time the amounts have continuously been in an unrealized loss position.

Fixed-Maturity Securities
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
As of September 30, 2017

 Less than 12 months 12 months or more Total
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$445
 $(10) $253
 $(7) $698
 $(17)
U.S. government and agencies114
 0
 4
 0
 118
 0
Corporate securities136
 (1) 252
 (17) 388
 (18)
Mortgage-backed securities:       
    
RMBS107
 (1) 170
 (11) 277
 (12)
CMBS50
 0
 76
 (4) 126
 (4)
Asset-backed securities66
 0
 3
 0
 69
 0
Foreign government securities35
 (1) 147
 (18) 182
 (19)
Total$953
 $(13) $905
 $(57) $1,858
 $(70)
Number of securities (1) 
 292
  
 230
  
 513
Number of securities with other-than-temporary impairment 
 9
  
 14
  
 23

Fixed-Maturity Securities
Gross Unrealized Loss by Length of Time
As of December 31, 2016

 Less than 12 months 12 months or more Total
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Unrealized
Loss
 (dollars in millions)
Obligations of state and political subdivisions$1,110
 $(38) $6
 $(1) $1,116
 $(39)
U.S. government and agencies87
 (1) 
 
 87
 (1)
Corporate securities492
 (11) 118
 (20) 610
 (31)
Mortgage-backed securities: 
  
  
  
 

 

RMBS391
 (23) 94
 (15) 485
 (38)
CMBS165
 (5) 
 
 165
 (5)
Asset-backed securities36
 0
 0
 0
 36
 0
Foreign government securities44
 (5) 114
 (27) 158
 (32)
Total$2,325
 $(83) $332
 $(63) $2,657
 $(146)
Number of securities(1) 
 622
  
 60
  
 676
Number of securities with other-than-temporary impairment 
 8
  
 9
  
 17
___________________
(1)
The number of securities does not add across because lots consisting of the same securities have been purchased at different times and appear in both categories above (i.e., less than 12 months and 12 months or more). If a security appears in both categories, it is counted only once in the total column.

Of the securities in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more as of September 30, 2017, 28 securities had unrealized losses greater than 10% of book value. The total unrealized loss for these securities as of September 30, 2017 was $26 million. As of December 31, 2016, of the securities in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more, 41 securities had unrealized losses greater than 10% of book valueinvestment portfolio with an unrealized lossoverall credit quality rated at a minimum of $59 million. The Company has determined that the unrealized losses recorded as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016 were yield related and not the result of other-than-temporary-impairment.A+/A1/A+ by S&P/Moody’s/Fitch Inc., respectively.

Changes in interest rates affect the value of the Company’s fixed-maturity portfolio.securities. As interest rates fall, the fair value of fixed-maturity securities generally increases and, as interest rates rise, the fair value of fixed-maturity securities generally decreases. The Company’s portfolio of fixed-maturity securities primarily consists primarily of high-quality,investment-grade, liquid instruments. Other invested assets include other alternative investments, which are generally less liquid. For more information about the Investment Portfolio and a detailed description of the Company’s valuation of investments, see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 7, Investments, and Note 9, Fair Value Measurement.

98

Investment Portfolio
Carrying Value
As of
 March 31, 2024December 31, 2023
 (in millions)
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale$6,091 $6,307 
Fixed-maturity securities, trading (1)272 318 
Short-term investments1,649 1,661 
Other invested assets (2)875 829 
Total$8,887 $9,115 
____________________
(1)    Represents CVIs received under the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions, which are not rated.
(2)    Excludes investments in three Sound Point funds that are consolidated. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

The amortized cost and estimated fair value of the Company’s available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities by contractual maturity, are shown below. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.had a duration of 4.0 years and 3.9 years as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.



Distribution ofAvailable-for-Sale and Trading Fixed-Maturity Securities By Rating
by Contractual Maturity
As of September 30, 2017
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Estimated
Fair Value
 (in millions)
Due within one year$249
 $250
Due after one year through five years1,518
 1,552
Due after five years through 10 years2,280
 2,365
Due after 10 years4,581
 4,936
Mortgage-backed securities: 
  
RMBS866
 881
CMBS551
 562
Total$10,045
 $10,546


The following table summarizes the ratings distributions of the Company’s investment portfolioavailable-for-sale fixed-maturity securities as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016.2023. Ratings generally reflect the lower of the Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (Moody’s) and S&P classifications, except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation or other risk management strategies,(i) Loss Mitigation Securities, which use Assured Guaranty’s internal ratings classifications.classifications or (ii) Puerto Rico securities received under the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions, which are not rated.

Distribution of
Available-for-Sale Fixed-Maturity Securities by Rating
As ofAs of
Rating As of
September 30, 2017
 As of
December 31, 2016
RatingMarch 31, 2024December 31, 2023
AAA 14.4% 11.6%AAA13.9 %13.3 %
AA 52.0
 54.8
A 19.6
 17.9
BBB 3.0
 1.9
BIG(1) 10.5
 13.5
BIG (1)
Not rated 0.5
 0.3
Total 100.0% 100.0%Total100.0 %100.0 %
____________________
(1)Comprised primarily of loss mitigation and other risk management assets. Please refer to Part I, Item I, Financial Statements, Note 10, Investments and Cash, for additional information.
(1)Includes primarily Loss Mitigation Securities. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 7, Investments, for additional information.

Other Investments

Other invested assets, which are generally less liquid than fixed-maturity securities primarily consist of the investment in Sound Point and alternative investments across a variety of strategies.

The Insurance segment reports the Company’s percentage ownership of Sound Point funds and AHP funds as equity method investments with changes in net asset value (NAV) included in the Insurance segment adjusted operating income. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, three of the funds in which the Company invests are consolidated and the remaining are accounted as equity method investments in the Company’s consolidated financial statements. See “— Commitments” below.

99

Investment in Assets Managers and Alternative Investments by Strategy
As of March 31, 2024
InvestmentsConsolidation Adjustments (1)Consolidated
 (in millions)
Sound Point (1)$417 $— $417 
Alternative investments:
CLOs (2)329 (233)96 
Healthcare137 — 137 
Asset-based/specialty finance175 (80)95 
Middle market direct lending28 — 28 
Other134 — 134 
Total (3)$1,220 $(313)$907 
____________________
(1)    Certain CLO and asset-based funds are CIVs. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.
(2)     Represents primarily investments in the equity of U.S. and European CLOs.
(3)    Includes $32 million in alternative investments reported in fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale, on the condensed consolidated balance sheets.

Investment in Assets Managers and Alternative Investments by Strategy
As of December 31, 2023
InvestmentsConsolidation Adjustments (1)Consolidated
 (in millions)
Sound Point (1)$429 $— $429 
Alternative investments:
CLOs (2)315 (223)92 
Healthcare102 — 102 
Asset-based/specialty finance166 (82)84 
Middle market direct lending26 — 26 
Other130 — 130 
Total (3)$1,168 $(305)$863 
____________________
(1)    Certain CLO and asset-based funds are CIVs. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.
(2)     Represents primarily investments in the equity of U.S. and European CLOs.
(3)    Includes $34 million in alternative investments reported in fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale, on the condensed consolidated balance sheets.

100

Change in Fair Value of Alternative Investments by Strategy
First Quarter 2024
InvestmentsConsolidation Adjustments (1)Consolidated
 (in millions)
Sound Point$$— $
CLOs21 (15)
Healthcare— 
Asset-based/specialty finance(2)
Middle market direct lending— 
Other— 
Total$43 $(17)$26 
____________________
(1)    Certain CLO and asset-based funds are CIVs. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Change in Fair Value of Alternative Investments by Strategy
First Quarter 2023
InvestmentsConsolidation Adjustments (1)Consolidated
 (in millions)
CLOs$19 $(19)$— 
Healthcare(8)— 
Asset-based(1)— 
Other— 
Total$30 $(28)$
____________________
(1)    Certain CLO and asset-based funds are CIVs. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Beginning in third quarter 2023, the Company records an equity method investment in Sound Point pursuant to the Sound Point Transaction described in Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation.

Commitments

Upon closing of the Sound Point Transaction and the AHP Transaction in July, the Company has agreed to invest $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including the $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval, which includes $803 million of invested capital (at fair value) and $743 million in unfunded commitments. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation, for a description of the Sound Point Transaction.

Of the $1.5 billion mentioned above, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment subsidiary, AGAS, are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $162 million for a total of $912 million as of March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to Sound Point and AHP funds were $772 million (of which $574 million was funded with a NAV of $632 million). This capital was committed to several funds, each dedicated to a single strategy, including CLOs, asset-based/special finance and healthcare structured capital. As of March 31, 2024, three of the eight funds in which AGAS invests are accounted for as CIVs.

Restricted Assets

    
Based on fair value, fixed-maturity securities, short-term investments and restricted cash that are either held in trust for the benefit of third partythird-party ceding insurers in accordance with statutory requirements, placed on deposit to fulfill state licensing requirements, or otherwise pledged or restricted, total $286 million and $285totaled $143 million as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and $234 million December 31, 2016, respectively.2023. The investment portfolio also contains securities that are held in trust by certain AGL subsidiaries or are otherwise restricted for the benefit of other AGL subsidiaries in accordance with statutory and regulatory requirements in the amountwith a fair value of $1,676$1,144 million and $1,420$1,154 million based on fair value, as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2016,2023, respectively.

101

Lease Obligations

The fair valueCompany has entered into several lease agreements for office space in Bermuda; New York; San Francisco; Asheville, North Carolina; London; Paris; and other locations with various lease terms. See Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 17, Leases, of the Company’s pledged securities to secure its obligations under its CDS exposure totaled $18 million and $116 million as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively. In February 2017, the Company terminated all of its remaining CDS contracts with one of its counterparties as to which it had collateral posting obligations and all of the collateral that the Company had been posting to that counterparty was returned to the Company. Please refer to Part I, Item I, Financial Statements, Note 8, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for additional information.

Liquidity Arrangements with respect to AGMH’s former Financial Products Business

AGMH’s former financial products segment had been in the business of borrowing funds through the issuance of guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) and medium term notes and reinvesting the proceeds in investments that met AGMH’s investment criteria. The financial products business also included the equity payment undertaking agreement portion of the leveraged lease business, described under "--Insurance Company Subsidiaries" above.
The GIC Business
Until November 2008, AGMH, through its financial products business, offered GICs to municipalities and other market participants. The GICs were issued through certain non-insurance subsidiaries of AGMH. In return for an initial payment, each GIC entitles its holder to receive the return of the holder’s invested principal plus interest at a specified rate, and to withdraw principal from the GIC as permitted by its terms. AGM insures the payment obligations on all these GICs.
The proceeds of GICs were loaned to AGMH’s former subsidiary FSA Asset Management LLC (FSAM). FSAM in turn invested these funds in fixed-income obligations (the FSAM assets).
As of September 30, 2017, approximately 32.5% of the FSAM assets (measured by aggregate principal balance) were in cash or were obligations backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Although AGMH no longer holds any ownership interest in FSAM or the GIC issuers, AGM’s insurance policies on the GICs remain in place, and must remain in place until each GIC is terminated.
In June 2009, in connection with the Company's acquisition of AGMH from Dexia Holdings Inc., Dexia SA, the ultimate parent of Dexia Holdings Inc., and certain of its affiliates, entered into a number of agreements intended to mitigate the credit, interest rate and liquidity risks associated with the GIC business and the related AGM insurance policies. Some of those agreements have since terminated or expired, or been modified.
To support the primary payment obligations under the GICs, each of Dexia SA and Dexia Crédit Local S.A. are party to a put contract. Pursuant to the put contract, FSAM may put an amount of its FSAM assets to Dexia SA and Dexia Crédit Local S.A. in exchange for funds that FSAM would in turn make available to meet demands for payment under the GICs. To secure their obligations under this put contract, Dexia SA and Dexia Crédit Local S.A. are required to post eligible highly liquid collateral having an aggregate value (subject to agreed reductions and advance rates) equal to at least the excess of (i) the aggregate principal amount of all outstanding GICs over (ii) the aggregate mark-to-market value of FSAM’s assets.

As of September 30, 2017, the aggregate accreted GIC balance was approximately $1.4 billion, compared with approximately $10.2 billion as of December 31, 2009. As of September 30, 2017, the aggregate fair market value of the assets supporting the GIC business (disregarding the agreed upon reductions) plus cash and positive derivative value exceeded by nearly $0.7 billion the aggregate principal amount of all outstanding GICs and certain other business and hedging costs of the GIC business. Even after applying the agreed upon reductions to the fair market value of the assets, the aggregate value of the assets supporting the GIC business plus cash and positive derivative value exceeded the aggregate principal amount of all outstanding GICs and certain other business and hedging costs of the GIC business. Accordingly, no posting of collateral was required under the primary put contract.

To provide additional support, Dexia Crédit Local S.A. provides a liquidity commitment to FSAM to lend against FSAM assets under a revolving credit agreement. As of September 30, 2017 the commitment totaled $1.5 billion, of which approximately $0.8 billion was drawn. The agreement requires the commitment remain in place, generally until the GICs have been paid in full.

Despite the put contract and revolving credit agreement, and the significant portion of FSAM assets comprised of highly liquid securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S., AGM remains subject to the risk that Dexia SA and its affiliates may not fulfill their contractual obligations. In that case, the GIC issuers may not have the financial ability to pay upon the withdrawal of GIC funds or post collateral or make other payments in respect of the GICs, thereby resulting in claims upon the AGM financial guaranty insurance policies.
A downgrade of the financial strength rating of AGM could trigger a payment obligation of AGM in respect to AGMH's former GIC business. Most GICs insured by AGM allow for the termination of the GIC contract and a withdrawal of GIC funds at the option of the GIC holder in the event of a downgrade of AGM below a specified threshold, generally below A- by S&P or A3 by Moody's. FSAM is expected to have sufficient eligible and liquid assets to satisfy any expected withdrawal and collateral posting obligations resulting from future rating actions affecting AGM.


The Medium Term Notes Business
In connection with the acquisition of AGMH, Dexia Crédit Local S.A. agreed to fund, on behalf of AGM, 100% of all policy claims made under financial guaranty insurance policies issued by AGM in relation to the medium term notes issuance program of FSA Global Funding Limited. As of September 30, 2017, FSA Global Funding Limited had approximately $294.9 million of medium term notes outstanding.
ITEM 3.QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” for an updated sensitivity analysis for credit derivatives and expected losses on contracts accounted for as insurance. For other quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk, see Item 7A, "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk", of our Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016. 2023, for a table of minimum lease obligations and other lease commitments.

FG VIEs and CIVs

    The Company manages its liquidity needs by evaluating cash flows without the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs; however, the Company’s condensed consolidated financial statements include the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs. The primary sources and uses of cash at Assured Guaranty’s FG VIEs and CIVs are as follows:

FG VIEs. The primary sources of cash in FG VIEs are the collection of principal and interest on the collateral supporting the debt obligations, and the primary uses of cash are the payment of principal and interest due on the debt obligations. The insurance subsidiaries are not primarily liable for the debt obligations issued by the VIEs they insure and would only be required to make payments on those insured debt obligations in the event that the issuer of such debt obligations defaults on any principal or interest due and only for the amount of the shortfall. AGL’s and its insurance subsidiaries’ creditors do not have any rights with regard to the collateral supporting the debt issued by the FG VIEs. In the fourth quarter of 2023, all of the Toll Bonds in the Puerto Rico Trusts were called, resulting in cash proceeds of $154 million. Such cash proceeds comprise the vast majority of the assets in the Puerto Rico Trusts as of December 31, 2023. In January 2024, such proceeds were used to pay down a portion of the liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts. The remaining liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts are payable by the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the credit of PRHTA.

CIVs. The primary sources and uses of cash in the CIVs are using capital to make investments, generating cash income from investments, paying expenses, distributing cash flow to investors and borrowing funds to finance investments. The assets and liabilities of the Company’s CIVs are held within separate legal entities. The assets of the CIVs are not available to creditors of the Company, other than creditors of the applicable CIVs. In addition, creditors of the CIVs have no recourse against the assets of the Company, other than the assets of such applicable CIVs. Liquidity available at the Company’s CIVs is not available for corporate liquidity needs, except to the extent of the Company’s investment in the funds, subject to redemption provisions.

See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for additional information.

Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows
    The summarized condensed consolidated statements of cash flows in the table below present the cash flow effect for the aggregate of the Insurance and Asset Management businesses and holding companies, separately from the aggregate effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs. In the third quarter of 2023, as a result of the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, the Company deconsolidated all CLOs and CLO warehouses and certain funds. As a result, beginning July 1, 2023, the Company’s cash flow statements will no longer include all the operating, investing and financing cash flow activity of the deconsolidated CIVs. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation, and Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for additional information.    

102

Summarized Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows
 First Quarter
 20242023
 (in millions)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities, excluding FG VIEs and CIVs operating cash flows$(62)$(34)
FG VIEs and CIVs operating cash flows(12)346 
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities(74)312 
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities, excluding FG VIEs and CIVs investing cash flows257 102 
FG VIEs and CIVs investing cash flows(4)(196)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities253 (94)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities, excluding FG VIEs and CIVs financing cash flows
Dividends paid(19)(18)
Repurchases of common shares(129)(2)
Other(28)(15)
FG VIEs and CIVs financing cash flows(151)(261)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities (1)(327)(296)
Effect of exchange rate changes(1)
Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash(149)(77)
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at beginning of period286 207 
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at the end of the period$137 $130 
____________________
(1)     Claims paid on consolidated FG VIEs are presented in the condensed consolidated statements of cash flows as a component of paydowns on FG VIEs’ liabilities in financing activities as opposed to operating activities.

    Cash flows from operations, excluding FG VIEs and CIVs, were an outflow of $62 million in first quarter 2024 and an outflow of $34 million in first quarter 2023. The increase in cash outflows, other than those of the FG VIEs and CIVs, during first quarter 2024 was primarily due to a $48 million increase in net claim payments. Cash flows from operations attributable to FG VIEs and CIVs were outflows in first quarter 2024 and inflows in first quarter 2023. Cash flow form operations in first quarter 2023 included the operating activities of the CLOs and CLO warehouses in the first half of 2023 prior to the Sound Point Transaction. The condensed consolidated statements of cash flows present the investing activities of the consolidated Sound Point funds, which were formerly known as AssuredIM funds, and CLOs as cash flows from operations.

Investing activities primarily consisted of net sales (purchases) of fixed-maturity and short-term investments and paydowns on and sales of FG VIEs’ assets. The increase in investing cash inflows in first quarter 2024 compared with the first quarter 2023 was mainly attributable to net purchases of short-term and fixed-maturity securities in the first quarter 2023 and lower net sales of fixed-maturity securities in first quarter 2024, partially offset by higher sales of trading securities in first quarter 2024. In the first quarter 2024, investing inflows were used to fund claim payments and share repurchases. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, and Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, for additional information.

Financing activities primarily consist of (i) AGL share repurchases and dividends, (ii) paydowns of FG VIEs’ liabilities, and (iii) until July 1, 2023, CLO issuances and CLO warehouse financing activities. The CIVs’ financing cash flows mainly included repayments of CLO warehouse financing debt and distributions from noncontrolling interests to CIVs. First quarter 2024 FG VIE financing cash flows included the par paydown of Puerto Rico Trust liabilities of $144 million. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

From April 1, 2024 through May 7, 2024, the Company repurchased an additional 750,280 of common shares. As of May 7, 2024, the Company was authorized to purchase $414 million of its common shares. For more information about the Company’s share repurchases and authorizations, see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 12, Shareholders’ Equity.
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ITEM 3.    QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

There were no material changes into the market risks thatto which the Company is exposed to since December 31, 2016.2023.


ITEM 4.CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES

ITEM 4.    CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES

Assured Guaranty’s management, with the participation of AGL’s President and Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, is responsible for establishing and maintaining disclosure controls and procedures (as such term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Exchange Act) that are effective in recording, processing, summarizing and reporting, within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules and forms, information required to be disclosed by AGL in the reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act and ensuring that such information is accumulated and communicated to management, including the President and Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosures.
 
Management of the Company, with the participation of its President and Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, evaluated the effectiveness of the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures as of September 30, 2017.March 31, 2024. Based on their evaluation as of September 30, 2017March 31, 2024 covered by this Form 10-Q, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer have concluded that the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures were effective.



    There were no changes in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting during first quarter 2024 which were identified in connection with the evaluation required pursuant to Rules 13a-15 or 15d-15 under the Exchange Act, that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the Company’s internal control over financial reporting.

PART II.OTHER INFORMATION





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Table of Contents
ITEM 1.LEGAL PROCEEDINGS

PART II.OTHER INFORMATION

ITEM 1.LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
 
The Company is subject to legal proceedings and claims, as described in Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 11, Commitments and Contingencies – Legal Proceedings, the Company's“PREPA” and “Puerto Rico Litigation” sections of Note 3, Outstanding Exposure,and the “Recovery Litigation and Dispute Resolution” section of Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), each contained in this Form 10-Q and incorporated by reference herein. For additional information see the “Legal Proceedings” and “Litigation” sections of Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 18, Commitments and Contingencies, the “Recovery Litigation” section of Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), and the “Puerto Rico Litigation” section of Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, in the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2017, and June 30, 2017, and in Part I, Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 14, Commitments and Contingencies – Legal Proceedings contained in this Form 10-Q. There were no material developments to such proceedings during the three months ended September 30, 2017.2023.

ITEM 1A.RISK FACTORS

    
ITEM 1A.RISK FACTORS

Please refer toSee the risk factors set forth in Part I, "Item“Item 1A. Risk Factors"Factors” of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016.2023. There have been no material changes to the risk factors disclosed in such Annual Report on Form 10-K during the nine months ended September 30, 2017.10-K.


ITEM 2.UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES AND USE OF PROCEEDS
ITEM 2.    UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES AND USE OF PROCEEDS
 
Issuer’s Purchases of Equity Securities
 
The following table reflects purchases of AGL common shares made by the Company during Third Quarter 2017.first quarter 2024.
 
Period 
Total
Number of
Shares
Purchased
 
Average
Price Paid
Per Share
 
Total Number of
Shares Purchased as
Part of Publicly
Announced Program (1)
 
Maximum Number
(or Approximate Dollar Value) of Shares that May Yet Be
Purchased
Under the Program (2)
July 1 - July 31 688,432
 $43.78
 685,243
 $167,872,823
August 1 - August 31 679,770
 $44.17
 679,165
 $137,872,863
September 1 - September 30 483,493
 $41.37
 483,493
 $117,872,889
Total 1,851,695
 $43.29
 1,847,901
  
PeriodTotal
Number of
Shares
Purchased (1)
Average
Price Paid
Per Share
Total Number of
Shares Purchased as
Part of Publicly
Announced Program (2)
Maximum Number
(or Approximate Dollar Value) of Shares that May Yet Be
Purchased
Under the Program (3)
January 1 - January 31502,141 $77.30 502,141 $265,274,588 
February 1 - February 29834,355 $84.01 499,010 $223,738,173 
March 1 - March 31538,464 $91.15 538,127 $174,686,778 
Total1,874,960 $84.26 1,539,278  
____________________
(1)
After giving effect to repurchases since the beginning of 2013 through November 2, 2017, the Company has repurchased a total of 79.9 million common shares for approximately $2,166 million, excluding commissions, at an average price of $27.11 per share. The Board of Directors authorized, on November 1, 2017, an additional $300 million of share repurchases. As of November 2, 2017, $398 million of total capacity remained from the existing Board of Directors share repurchase authorizations, on a settlement basis.

(2)Excludes commissions.


ITEM 5.OTHER INFORMATION

On November 1, 2017, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) mutually agreed with James M. Michener, the Company’s General Counsel and Secretary, that Mr. Michener would resign as General Counsel and Secretary and as an executive officer(1)    The total number of the Company, effective December 31, 2017, in accordance with the terms of a separation agreement (the “Separation Agreement”) which he and the Company entered into on such date. Pursuant to the Separation Agreement, Mr. Michener will remain employed by the Company in a non-executive officer position, serving as Senior Advisor to the Chief Executive Officer, for a transition period (the “Transition Period”) beginning on January 1, 2018 and ending upon his retirement on December 31, 2018 (the “Retirement Date”). Ling Chow, the Company’s U.S. General Counsel, will succeed Mr. Michener as the Company’s new General Counsel, beginning on January 1, 2018. The Company entered into the Separation Agreement in recognition of Mr. Michener’s successful years of service with the Company and to encourage him to work through the Retirement Date in order to facilitate the transition of his duties to his successor, to advise the Company regarding ongoing litigation, and so he would remain available to consult on matters related to his experience with the Company.

The Separation Agreement provides that if Mr. Michener remains employed though the Retirement Date, his base salary and cash and equity incentive opportunities during the Transition Period will be equal to his current base salary and cash and equity incentive opportunities. The Compensation Committee will determine the exact amount of Mr. Michener’s

incentive awards for the 2017 fiscal year after the 2017 financial results are available. If the Compensation Committee awards Mr. Michener equity awards for the 2017 fiscal year, such awards will be granted as restricted stock units pursuant to a grant agreement substantially in the form attached as an exhibit to the Separation Agreement with 50% of such units settling on the one-year anniversary of the date of grant and 50% settling on the two-year anniversary of the date of grant. In addition, the Compensation Committee will determine the exact amount of Mr. Michener’s incentive awards for the 2018 fiscal year after the 2018 financial results are available. Mr. Michener’s 2018 incentive award amounts, if any, will be paid in cash rather than any equity grant because he will no longer be eligible for a grant pursuant to the Company’s 2004 Long-Term Incentive Plan once he is no longer employed by the Company. The portion of the 2018 incentive award amount, if any, attributable to an equity grant will be paid 50% in December 2019 and the remaining 50% in December 2020. The Separation Agreement specifies that during the Transition Period, Mr. Michener will be required to own AGL shares having a value equal to two times his base salary, which is the level applicable to managing directors, group heads and equivalent positions under the under the Company’s stock ownership guidelines.

Pursuant to the Separation Agreement, if Mr. Michener remains employed though the Retirement Date, any unvested equity awards that he holds on the Retirement Date will vest in accordance with the terms that the applicable award agreement provides upon retirement. However, any previously granted cash and equity awards, including the performance share units granted to Mr. Michener in 2017, that include Company or individual performance-based vesting conditions (e.g., the achievement of certain pre-established share price targets) remain subject to satisfaction of such applicable performance conditions following the Retirement Date. The Separation Agreement addresses the timing of payments and distributions to Mr. Michener so that they remain exempt from or comply with the provisions of Sections 409A and 457A of the Internal Revenue Code.

In the event that Mr. Michener’s employment is terminated before the Retirement Datepurchased also includes shares purchased as a result of death or permanent disability,employees surrendering shares as payment for withholding taxes upon vesting of share awards.
(2)    After giving effect to repurchases since the Compensation Committee’s evaluationBoard first authorized the repurchase program on January 18, 2013, through May 7, 2024, the Company has repurchased a total of his performance146 million common shares for approximately $5.1 billion, excluding commissions, at an average price of $34.50 per share. On May 2, 2024, the relevant year, the Compensation Committee would have the discretion to award him a cash payment in lieu of an equity incentive and/or a cash incentive for the year during which such termination occurs. In the event of a termination prior to the Retirement Date for any other reason, any unvested equity awards that he holds on the date of such termination will vest in accordance with the termsCompany announced that the applicable award agreement provides asBoard of Directors had authorized an additional $300 million of share repurchases. As of May 7, 2024, the remaining authorization the Company was authorized to purchase was $414 million of its common shares, on a resultsettlement basis. The repurchase program has no expiration date and the Board has previously increased the authorization periodically.
(3)     Excludes commissions and excise taxes.

ITEM 5.    OTHER MATTERS

10b5-1 Trading Plans

During first quarter 2024, none of such other termination, as applicable.

Mr. Michener will remain eligible for the Company’s severance policy, which is describeddirectors or officers (as defined in its 2017 proxy statement, for any termination prior toRule 16a-1(f) of the Retirement Date subject toExchange Act) adopted, terminated or modified a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement (as such terms are defined in Item 408 of Regulation S-K of the termsSecurities Act).

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ITEM 6.EXHIBITS
The Separation Agreement contains covenants by Mr. Michener relating to protection of the Company's confidential information, cooperation, non-competition, non-solicitation and non-disparagement and other standard provisions. Payments pursuant to the Separation Agreementfollowing exhibits are subject to forfeiture and/or clawback in the event of violation of such covenants. Mr. Michener executed a release of claims as part of the Separation Agreement. The Separation Agreement provides that Mr. Michener will execute another release of claims within 45 days after his retirement.


ITEM 6.EXHIBITS.
See Exhibit Index for a list of exhibits filed with this report.report:


Exhibit
Number
Description of Document
10.1 
10.2 
10.3 
10.4 
10.5 
10.6 
10.7 
22.0 
31.1 
31.2 
32.1 
32.2 
101.1 The following financial information from Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 formatted in Inline XBRL: (i) Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023; (ii) Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023; (iii) Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023; (iv) Condensed Consolidated Statements of Shareholders’ Equity for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023; (v) Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023; and (vi) Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.
104.1 The Cover Page Interactive Data File from Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 formatted, in Inline XBRL (the cover page XBRL tags are embedded in the Inline XBRL document and included in Exhibit 101).

* Management contract or compensatory plan
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SIGNATURES
 
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.
 
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

(Registrant)
Dated November 3, 2017May 8, 2024By:
/s/ ROBERT A. BAILENSON


BENJAMIN G. ROSENBLUM
Robert A. BailensonBenjamin G. Rosenblum
Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial and
Accounting Officer and Duly Authorized Officer)


EXHIBIT INDEX

107
Exhibit
Number
Description of Document
31.1
31.2
32.1
32.2
101.1
The following financial information from Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2017 formatted in XBRL: (i) Consolidated Balance Sheets at September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016; (ii) Consolidated Statements of Operations for the Three and Nine Months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016; (iii) Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income for the Three and Nine Months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 (iv) Consolidated Statement of Shareholders’ Equity for the Nine Months ended September 30, 2017 (v) Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows for the Nine Months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016; and (vi) Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.




151