Auburn’s market area encompasses Androscoggin County in Maine. The Bank’s two offices are in Androscoggin County with one in the city of Auburn and one in the city of Lewiston.
Exhibit 25 provides a summary of key demographic data and trends for the cities of Auburn and Lewiston, Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States. From 1990 to 2000, population decreased in both Auburn and Lewiston as well as in Androscoggin County, while population increased in Maine and the United States. The population decreased by 4.5 percent in Auburn, by 10.2 percent in Lewiston and by 1.4 percent in Androscoggin County, while increasing by 3.8 percent in Maine and by 13.2 percent in the United States. The population reversed to growth in Auburn and Lewiston from 2000 to 2007. Compared to 2000, the population in 2007 indicated increases of 4.1 percent in both Auburn and Lewiston, an increase of 5.9 percent in Androscoggin County, while Maine indicated growth of 6.1 percent and the United States indicated growth of 8.9 percent. Projections indicate that population will continue to increase in all areas through 2012. The population in both Auburn and Lewiston is projected to increase by 3.6 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, with a projected 4.2 percent increase in population in Androscoggin County. Maine and the United States are projected to have population growth of 3.8 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively.
Lewiston experienced a decrease in households of 3.4 percent from 1990 to 2000; but during those ten years, the number of households increased in Auburn by 2.3 percent, in Androscoggin County by 5.0 percent, in Maine by 11.4 percent and in the United States by 14.7 percent. The trend in household growth from 2000 to 2007 indicates an increase in Auburn of 6.0 percent and in Lewiston of 1.3 percent, in Androscoggin County by 7.6 percent, in Maine by 8.5 percent, and in the United States by 9.3 percent. From 2007 through the year 2012, households are projected to increase by 4.6 percent, 8.3 percent, 5.3 percent, 5.0 percent and 6.5 percent in Auburn, Lewiston, Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States, respectively.
Description of Primary Market Area (cont.)
In 1990, Auburn had a per capita income of $13,511 with lower per capita income of $12,277 in Lewiston. Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States, had per capita income of $12,397, $12,957 and $14,420, respectively. From 1990 to 2000, per capita income increased in all areas. Auburn’s per capita income increased from 1990 to 2000 by 47.6 percent to $19,942. Per capita income increased by 45.8 percent in Lewiston to $17,905, by 51.1 percent to $18,734 in Androscoggin County, by 50.8 percent to $19,533 in Maine and by 49.7 percent to $21,587 in the United States. From 2000 to 2007, per capita income continued to increase by 27.6 percent, 18.0 percent, 20.5 percent, 26.1 percent and 29.3 percent to $25,452, $21,132, $22,583, $24,625 and $27,916 in Auburn, Lewiston, Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States, respectively.
The 1990 median household income of $27,493 in Auburn was higher than the median household income in Lewiston and Androscoggin County at $24,051 and $26,979, respectively. Maine’s 1990 median household income was $27,854, slightly higher than Auburn’s and the median household income of $30,056 in the United States was the highest of all areas. From 1990 to 2000, median household income increased in all areas, with Auburn indicating a 29.7 percent increase to $35,652, compared to a 21.4 percent increase to $29,191 in Lewiston, an increase of 32.7 percent to $35,793 in Androscoggin County, a 33.7 percent increase to $37,240 in Maine and a 39.7 percent increase to $41,994 in the United States. From 2000 to 2007, median household income in Auburn was estimated to have increased 22.8 percent to $43,793, while median household income in Lewiston and Androscoggin County increased by 18.8 percent and 19.8 percent to $34,668 and $42,866, respectively. Maine’s median household income grew 22.1 percent to $45,463, and the United States’ increase was 26.6 percent to $53,154 from 2000 to 2007. From 2007 to 2012, median household income is projected to increase by 13.4 percent in Auburn to $49,678, by 12.5 percent to $39,014 in Lewiston, by 14.7 percent to $49,152 in Androscoggin County, by 14.7 percent in Maine to $52,125, and by 17.6 percent in the United States to $62,503.
27
Description of Primary Market Area (cont.)
Exhibit 26 provides a summary of key housing data for Auburn, Lewiston, Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States. In 1990, Auburn had a rate of owner-occupancy of 57.0 percent, higher than Lewiston at 47.0 percent, with Androscoggin County at a higher 62.2 percent owner-occupancy rate. Maine and the United States had owner-occupancy rates of 70.5 percent and 64.2 percent, respectively. As a result, Auburn supported a higher rate of renter-occupied housing of 43.0 percent, compared to 53.0 percent in Lewiston, a lower 37.8 percent in Androscoggin County, 29.5 percent in Maine and 35.8 percent in the United States. In 2000, owner-occupied housing increased slightly in Auburn to 57.2 percent, and also increased slightly in Lewiston to 47.2 percent. Owner-occupied housing was 63.4 percent in Androscoggin County, 71.6 percent in Maine and 66.2 percent in the United States, respectively. Conversely, the renter-occupied rates decreased in Auburn to 42.8 percent, in Lewiston to 52.8 percent, in Androscoggin County to 36.6 percent and decreased in Maine and the United States to 28.4 percent and 33.8 percent, respectively.
Auburn’s1990 median housing value was $86,800 with Lewiston having an $87,200 median housing value, and Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States at $86,400, $87,300 and $78,500, respectively. The 1990 median rent in Auburn was $396 compared to Lewiston at $361, Androscoggin County at $374, Maine at $419 and the United States at $374. In 2000, median housing values had decreased slightly in Auburn to $86,700 but had remained the same in Lewiston at $87,200. Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States all had increases in housing values to $89,900, $98,700 and $119,600, respectively. The 2000 median rents were $446 in Auburn, $408 in Lewiston, $433 in Androscoggin County, and $497 and $602 in Maine and the United States, respectively.
In 1990, the major source of employment in all areas, by industry sector, based on share of employment, was the services sector with 35.3 percent, 33.3 percent, 32.3 percent, 36.8 percent and 34.0 percent of the majority of employment in Auburn, Lewiston, Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States, respectively (reference Exhibit 27). The manufacturing sector was the second major employment source in the Auburn, Lewiston and Androscoggin
28
Description of Primary Market Area (cont.)
County at 22.5 percent, 26.0 percent and 25.4 percent, respectively, but accounted for a lower 19.7 percent in Maine and 19.2 percent in the United States. The wholesale/retail sector was the third largest major employer in Auburn, Lewiston and Androscoggin County at 22.4 percent, 22.9 percent and 22.5 percent, respectively, but second highest in Maine and in the United States at 22.1 percent and 27.5 percent. The construction sector, finance, insurance and real estate sector, transportation/utilities sector, and the agriculture/mining sector combined to provide 19.8 percent of employment in Auburn, 17.8 percent of employment in Lewiston, 19.8 percent of employment in Androscoggin County, 21.4 percent in Maine and 19.3 percent in the United States.
In 2000, the services industry, wholesale/retail trade and manufacturing industry provided the first, second and third highest sources of employment, respectively, for Auburn, Lewiston, Maine and the United States. The services industry accounted for 45.0 percent, 44.8 percent, 46.4 percent and 46.7 percent in Auburn, Lewiston, Maine and the United States, respectively. Wholesale/retail trade provided for 18.5 percent, 20.1 percent, 16.9 percent and 15.3 percent in Auburn, Lewiston, Maine and the United States, respectively. The manufacturing sector provided 17.5 percent, 17.4 percent, 14.2 percent and 14.1 percent of employment in Auburn, Lewiston, Maine and the United States, respectively. Androscoggin County’s three highest employment sectors were only slightly different in 2000, with services at 42.7 percent, manufacturing at 19.3 percent and wholesale/retail at 18.7 percent providing the largest numbers. The remaining employment sectors of agriculture/mining, construction, transportation/utilities, information, and finance, insurance and real estate provided the remaining 19.0 percent, 17.7 percent, 19.3 percent, 22.5 percent, and 23.9 percent of employment in Auburn, Lewiston, Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States, respectively.
29
Description of Primary Market Area (cont.)
Some of the largest employers in the area are listed below.
| | |
Employer | | Business |
| |
|
|
1,000 to 1,700 employees: | | |
Central Main Medical Center | | Health and management services |
St. Mary’s Health Systems | | Health and management services |
| |
500 to 999 employees: | | |
L.L. Bean | | Retail, telemarketing |
Wal-Mart | | General merchandise stores |
Banknorth Group-L-A, MSA | | Banking |
Lewiston School Dept. | | Educational services, local gov’t. |
Bates College | | Educational services, private |
Auburn School Dept. | | Educational services, local gov’t. |
Tambrands, Inc. | | Paper manufacturer |
Panolam (Pioneer Plastics) | | Plastics manufacturer |
| |
300 to 499 employees: | | |
City of Lewiston | | Local government |
LiveBridge | | Business services |
Formed Tiber Technologies | | Textile manufacturer |
Tri-County Mental Health | | Health services |
County Kitchen (LePage Bakery) | | Food manufacturer |
Liberty Mutual | | Insurance |
Androscoggin Home Care & Hospice | | Health services |
Unemployment rates are another key economic indicator. Exhibit 28 shows the unemployment rates in Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States in 2003 through October of 2007. Androscoggin County has been generally characterized by similar unemployment rates compared to both Maine and the United States with both the county and state having lower rates than the United States. In 2003, Androscoggin County had an unemployment rate of 5.0 percent, compared to rates of 5.0 percent in Maine and 6.0 percent in the United States. Unemployment rates decreased in 2004, to 4.5 percent in Androscoggin County, to 4.6 percent in Maine and to 5.5 percent in the United States. In 2005, the county and state had increases in unemployment rates to 4.9 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively, with the United States having a decrease in its unemployment rate to 5.1 percent. In 2006, unemployment rates decreased to 4.2 percent, 4.6 percent, and 4.6 percent in Androscoggin County, Maine, and
30
Description of Primary Market Area (cont.)
the United States, respectively. Through October of 2007, the unemployment rates in Androscoggin County, Maine and the United States were all at 4.4 percent.
Exhibit 29 provides deposit data for banks and thrifts in Androscoggin County. At June 30, 2007, Auburn’s deposits represented 8.5 percent of the thrift deposits in Androscoggin County but a smaller 3.9 percent of the total deposits in Androscoggin County. It is evident from the size of the thrift and bank deposits that the market area has a moderate deposit base at $1.14 billion.
Exhibit 30 provides interest rate data for each quarter for the years 2003 through 2007. The interest rates tracked are the Prime Rate, as well as 90-Day, One-Year and Thirty-Year Treasury Bills. Short term interest rates experienced a declining trend in 2002 and then a basically flat trend in 2003. This trend indicates some increase in One-Year Treasury Bills and 30-Year Treasury Notes. Then rates have indicated constant increases in each quarter in 2005 and continuing at a strong pace in the first quarter of 2006 followed by decreases in longer term Treasury rates in the second quarter of 2006 and then stabilizing for the remainder of 2006. In 2007, rates on thirty-year Treasuries increased, while 90-day and one-year Treasury bills decreased significantly, resulting in a reversal of the inverted yield curve.
SUMMARY
Auburn and Lewiston experienced decreases in population from 1990 through 2000 as did Androscoggin County. All areas are projected to increase in population from 2007 through 2012. Auburn, Lewiston, Auburn County and Maine indicated lower per capita income and median household income than the United States. In 1990, the median housing values in Auburn, Lewiston and Auburn County were similar to Maine’s but higher than the national average, while the median rent in all areas except Lewiston was higher than the national median.
31
Description of Primary Market Area (cont.)
In 2000, market area, county and state median housing values and median rent were below the national medians.
Androscoggin County has had similar unemployment rates compared to Maine with both the county and state having lower rates than that of the United States. Finally, the market area is a competitive financial institution market dominated by banks with a total market area deposit base for banks and thrifts of $1.1 billion.
32
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III. | COMPARABLE GROUP SELECTION |
Introduction
Integral to the valuation of Auburn is the selection of an appropriate group of publicly-traded thrift institutions, hereinafter referred to as the “comparable group”. This section identifies the comparable group and describes various methodologies and parameters used in the selection of the group. The selection of the comparable group was based on the establishment of both general and specific parameters using financial condition, operating and asset quality characteristics of the Bank to indicate the overall appropriateness of each of the comparable group institutions and the full comparable group in aggregate. The parameters established and defined are considered to be both reasonable and reflective of the Bank’s basic operations.
The various characteristics of the selected comparable group provide the primary basis for applying the necessary adjustments to the Bank’s pro forma value relative to the comparable group. There is also a general recognition and consideration of financial comparisons with all publicly-traded, FDIC-insured thrifts in the United States and all publicly-traded, FDIC-insured thrifts in the New England region.
Exhibits 32 and 33 present Thrift Stock Prices and Pricing Ratios and Key Financial Data and Ratios, respectively, for the universe of 204 publicly-traded, FDIC-insured, fully converted thrifts in the United States (“all thrifts”), also subclassifying those thrifts by region, including the 19 publicly-traded New England thrifts (“New England thrifts”), and by trading exchange. At February 15, 2008, there were no publicly-traded thrift institutions in Maine. Exhibits 34 and 35 present Thrift Stock Prices and Pricing Ratios and Key Financial Data and Ratios, respectively, for the 74 publicly-traded, FDIC-insured mutual holding companies in the United States.
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SELECTION PARAMETERS
Mutual Holding Companies
The percentage of public ownership of individual mutual holding companies indicates a wide range from minimal to just under 50 percent, since public ownership must be in the minority, causing them to demonstrate certain characteristic differences not only from fully converted, publicly-traded companies, but also among themselves. Mutual holding companies typically demonstrate higher pricing ratios that relate to their minority ownership structure and, in most cases, a lower book value per share. Mutual holding company trading volume in the aftermarket is often lower than fully converted companies, with the fewer public shares affording less liquidity to the issue. Additionally, there is a measure of speculation attached to mutual holding company pricing, in that mutual holding companies have more potential for remutualization than fully converted companies; and many mutual holding companies subsequently elect to offer to the public the majority of shares owned by the MHC in what is known as a second stage conversion. In a second stage conversion, the original minority public shareholders receive additional shares, known as exchange shares, in the fully converted company in order to maintain the same collective percentage ownership they held in the MHC. Such additional shares might increase the value of the minority shares, although recent short term price appreciation following second stage conversions has been generally modest.
The Corporation will be conducting a first stage mutual holding company minority offering and will be majority owned by a federally chartered mutual holding company, Auburn Bancorp, MHC. Inasmuch as, following the completion of its minority offering, the Bank will demonstrate the same structural characteristics and will be subject to similar market influences as other publicly-traded mutual holding companies, it is our opinion that an appropriate comparable group be comprised wholly of mutual holding companies. In order, however, to moderate the differences in ownership, pricing and trading characteristics among the comparable group companies and to recognize their differences from the larger universe of publicly-traded companies, we will derive their pricing ratios on a fully converted basis by applying pro forma
34
Mutual Holding Companies (cont.)
second stage conversion parameters to their current financial structure. This process will discussed in greater detail in Section VI of this Appraisal.
Exhibit 36 presents prices and price trends for all FDIC-insured first step mutual holding company minority offerings completed since January 1, 2007.
Trading Exchange
It is necessary that each institution in the comparable group be listed on one of the three major stock exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange, or the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System (NASDAQ). Such a listing indicates that an institution’s stock has demonstrated trading activity and is responsive to normal market conditions, which are requirements for continued listing.
Of the 74 publicly-traded, FDIC-insured mutual holding companies, savings institutions, none is traded on the New York Stock Exchange, 1 is traded on the American Stock Exchange, 39 are traded on NASDAQ, 31 are traded on the OTC Bulletin Board and 3 are listed in the Pink Sheets. Comparable group institutions will be limited to the 40 companies traded on the American Stock Exchange and NASDAQ.
Asset Size
Asset size was another parameter used in the selection of the comparable group. The maximum total assets for any potential comparable group institution was $450 million, due to the general similarity of asset mix and operating strategies of institutions within this asset range. Auburn had assets of approximately $63.5 million at December 31, 2007.
35
Asset Size (cont.)
In connection with asset size, we did not consider the number of offices or branches in selecting or eliminating candidates, since that characteristic is directly related to operating expenses, which are recognized as an operating performance parameter.
Merger/Acquisition
The comparable group will not include any institution that is in the process of a merger or acquisition due to the price impact of such a pending transaction.
There are no other pending merger/acquisition transaction involving thrift institutions in the city, county or market area of Auburn, as indicated in Exhibit 37.
Second Stage Conversion/Secondary Offering
The comparable group will not include any mutual holding company that has announced or is in the process of a second stage conversion, or that has announced or has recently completed a secondary stock offering, due to the price impact of such a transaction.
IPO Date
Another general parameter for the selection of the comparable group is the initial public offering (“IPO”) date, which must be at least four quarterly periods prior to the trading date of February 15, 2008, used in this Appraisal, in order to insure at least four consecutive quarters of reported data as a publicly-traded institution. The resulting parameter is a required IPO date prior to January 1, 2007.
36
Geographic Location
The geographic location of an institution is a pertinent parameter due to the impact of various regional economic and thrift industry conditions on the performance and trading prices of thrift institution stocks. The geographic location parameter has, therefore, eliminated regions of the United States distant to or incompatible with the Bank, including the western, northwestern and southwestern states. The geographic location parameter consists of the New England, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states.
Core Return on Average Assets (Core ROAA)
The comparable group will not include any institutions with negative core earnings during their most recent four quarters, since negative core earnings result in a negative price to core earnings multiple. Such a negative multiple is infinite and not meaningful and, in our opinion, would unreasonably and unacceptably skew and distort the comparable group’s average and median price to core earnings multiples, which are factors in the determination of value.
THE COMPARABLE GROUP
The comparable group was selected after the application of the foregoing parameters, as follows, with the outlined rows in Exhibit 38 indicating the institutions ultimately selected for the comparable group using the selection parameters established in this section.
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1. | Exhibit 38 in its entirety shows the 40 mutual holding companies remaining as comparable group candidates after applying the trading exchange parameter, thereby eliminating the 34 mutual holding companies listed on the OTC bulletin board or in the Pink Sheets. |
37
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The Comparable Group (cont.) |
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2. | Of the 40 institutions within the trading exchange parameter, 26 institutions with total assets greater than $450 million were eliminated. |
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3. | None of the 14 remaining institutions was eliminated due to involvement in a merger/acquisition transaction. |
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4. | None of the remaining 14 institutions was eliminated due to an announced or ongoing second stage conversion. |
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5. | None of the remaining 14 institutions was eliminated due to a geographic location out of the New England, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions. |
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6. | Two of the remaining 14 institutions, LaPorte Bancorp, Inc. and MSB Financial Corp. were eliminated due to their IPO dates subsequent to January 1, 2007. |
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7. | Two of the remaining 12 institutions were eliminated due to negative earnings for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007. |
As outlined in Exhibit 38 and presented in Exhibit 39, the comparable group is comprised of the ten publicly-traded mutual holding companies not eliminated above, with average assets of $323.6 million, from a low of $132.2 million to a high of $424.5 million. The comparable group has an average of 6.7 offices, compared to Auburn with 2 banking offices. Nine of the comparable group companies are traded on NASDAQ and one is traded on the American Stock Exchange. Five of the comparable institutions are in New York, with one each in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Three of the comparable group institutions completed their MHC reorganizations in 1995, one in 1998, one in 1999, one in 2004, two in 2005 and two in 2006.
38
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IV. | ANALYSIS, COMPARISON AND VALIDATION OF THE COMPARABLE GROUP |
BALANCE SHEET PARAMETERS
The following five balance sheet characteristics of the comparable group will examined as they relate and compare to Auburn:
| | |
| 1. | Cash and investments to assets |
| | |
| 2. | Mortgage-backed securities to assets |
| | |
| 3. | Total net loans to assets |
| | |
| 4. | Borrowed funds to assets |
| | |
| 5. | Equity to assets |
The ratio of deposits to assets was not used as a parameter as it is directly related to and affected by an institution’s equity and borrowed funds ratios, which are separate characteristics. Exhibits 40 and 41 include the above parameters as well as other pertinent comparative metrics.
Cash and Investments to Assets
Auburn’s ratio of cash and investments to assets, excluding mortgage-backed securities, was 7.88 percent at December 31, 2007, considerably lower than national and regional averages. The comparable group’s ratio of cash and investments to assets was 16.70 percent, higher than the Bank, higher than the national average of 13.85 percent and similar to the regional average of 17.93 percent. At December 31, 2006 and 2005, the comparable group’s ratio of cash and investments to assets was 12.64 percent and 10.03 percent, respectively.
In our opinion, this characteristic of the comparable group, in the additional context of investment in mortgage-backed securities as discussed in the following section, is compatible with the Bank.
39
Mortgage-Backed Securities to Assets
At December 31, 2007, Auburn had mortgage-backed securities of representing a modest 0.83 percent of total assets. For the five calendar years ended December 31, 2007, the Bank’s average ratio of mortgage-backed securities to total assets was 2.00 percent. The comparable group had a larger 8.95 percent share of mortgage-backed securities at December 31, 2007. The regional average was 11.82 percent and the national average was 8.53 percent for publicly-traded thrifts at December 31, 2007.
Many institutions purchase mortgage-backed securities as an alternative to both lending, relative to cyclical loan demand and prevailing interest rates, and other investment vehicles. As indicated above, the Bank’s and the comparable group’s combined shares of cash and investments and mortgage-backed securities have been only modestly disparate with fluctuating and intersecting trends. In our opinion, the Bank and the comparable group indicate general and adequate compatibility as to cash, investments and mortgage-backed securities.
Total Net Loans to Assets
At December 31, 2007, Auburn Savings had an 85.84 percent ratio of total net loans to assets, which was higher than both the national average of 72.15 percent and the regional average of 66.59 percent for publicly-traded thrifts. During the past five calendar years, the Bank’s ratio of total net loans to assets increased modestly from 79.66 percent in 2003 to 84.32 percent in 2006 to 85.84 percent in 2007, averaging 83.51 percent for those five years. At December 31, 2007, the comparable group had a moderately lower 68.97 percent ratio of loans to assets, which correlates closely to its similar 94.62 percent combined shares of cash and investments and mortgage-backed securities relative to Auburn at 94.55 percent. The comparable group’s five year average ratio was 72.24 percent, indicating a consistent relative trend, indicating no apparent disparate or changing lending strategy compared to the Bank.
40
Borrowed Funds to Assets
The Bank had borrowed funds equal to 21.51 percent of assets at December 31, 2007, compared to a lower 10.45 percent for the comparable group and a considerably higher 35.26 percent ratio for all thrifts. The three most recent calendar year average is 21.40 percent for the Bank, 9.53 percent for the comparable group and 35.24 percent for all thrifts. It is evident, therefore, that although the comparable group has a lower average ratio than Auburn, the Bank and the comparable group are both below the thrift population with smaller than average shares of borrowed funds. In our opinion, considering liability trends and relative liability mixes in the thrift industry, the Bank and the comparable group are within reasonable limits of compatibility.
Equity to Assets
Auburn Savings’ total equity to assets ratio was 7.06 percent at December 31, 2007, with the comparable group at a higher 14.86 percent. At December 31, 2007, the Bank had Tier 1 capital equal to 7.09 percent of total assets, compared to the comparable group at a 14.22 percent. All thrifts indicated an average total equity ratio of 11.01 percent and an average Tier 1 equity ratio of 9.94 percent.
It should be noted that as a result of their capital and share structure, all publicly-traded mutual holding companies had a higher 14.21 percent total equity ratio at December 31, 2007, compared to fully converted companies at 11.01 percent as indicated above.
PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS
Introduction
Exhibits 42, 43 and 44 present three performance parameters identified as key comparative metrics to determine the comparability of the Bank and the comparable group. The
41
Introduction (cont.)
primary performance indicator is the return on average assets (ROAA). The second performance indicator is net interest margin, which measures an institution’s ability to generate net interest income. An institution’s net noninterest margin comprises noninterest income and operating expenses or noninterest expenses as a combined net ratio to average assets. Net noninterest margin is a factor in distinguishing different types of operations, particularly institutions that are aggressive in secondary market activities, which often results in much higher operating costs and overhead ratios; and also provides for the netting of specific and incremental revenues and expenses associated with an institution’s ancillary services and consolidated subsidiary activities such as insurance and securities.
Return on Average Assets
The key performance parameter is the ROAA. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, Auburn’s core ROAA was 0.20 percent based on core earnings after taxes of $127,000, as detailed in Item I and Exhibit 7 of this Appraisal. Since 2004, the Bank has experienced a very slightly decreasing trend in its core ROAA, which was 0.26 percent in 2004, 0.25 percent in 2005, 0.23 percent in 2006 and 0.20 in 2007, averaging 0.23 for the four years. The comparable group reported a core ROAA of 0.42 percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, ranging from a high of 0.69 percent to a low of 0.42 percent; and indicated core ROAA of 0.69 percent in calendar 2004, 0.66 percent in calendar 2005, 0.58 percent in calendar 2006 and 0.42 in 2007, with a four year average of 0.59 percent. The national average core ROAA for publicly-traded thrifts was a similar 0.35 percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, which was also similar to the regional average of 0.42 percent.
42
Net Interest Margin
Auburn Savings had a net interest margin of 2.65 percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, representing net interest income as a percentage of average interest-earning assets. The Bank’s interest margin has been generally constant in recent years, indicating 2.32 percent, 2.60 percent, 2.65 percent, 2.69 percent and 2.65 percent in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The comparable group experienced a slightly declining five year trend in net interest margin, which was 3.36 percent in 2003, 3.41 percent in 2004, 3.37 percent in 2005, 3.22 percent in 2006 and 3.01 percent in 2007, with a three year average of 3.27 percent. Like Auburn, the comparable group indicated a moderate decrease for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, compared to calendar 2006. Industry and regional averages were 2.98 percent and 3.01 percent, respectively, for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007. Compared to the comparable group, the basis for the Bank’s lower net interest margin was its higher yield on interest earning assets, partially offset by its higher cost of interest-bearing liabilities, resulting in a net interest spread very similar to the comparable group, but a moderately lower net interest margin due to Auburn’s smaller asset base and larger share of interest-earning assets.
Net Noninterest Margin
Net noninterest margin represents the ratio of an institution’s noninterest income less its noninterest expenses, net of provision for loan losses, to average total assets.
Compared to publicly-traded thrifts, the Bank has historically realized lower than average noninterest income. Auburn had a 0.45 percent ratio of noninterest income to average assets for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, while the comparable group reported a higher ratio of 0.58 percent for the same period. All thrifts had a significantly higher 1.45 percent ratio of noninterest income to average assets for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, with New England thrifts at 0.91 percent.
43
Net Noninterest Margin (cont.)
Compared to the national and regional averages of 2.89 percent and 2.72 percent, respectively, for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, the Bank had a moderately lower 2.41 percent ratio of operating expense to average assets. The comparable group had a 2.73 percent ratio of noninterest expense to average assets for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007.
Based on total noninterest income of 0.45 percent of average assets and total noninterest expense of 2.41 percent of average assets, the Bank’s net noninterest margin was (2.19) percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, relative to the comparable group at (2.15) percent. In our opinion, such a variation of 4 basis points is well within a range of compatibility between the Bank and the comparable group, particularly considering the number and diversity of the components of noninterest income and expense.
ASSET QUALITY PARAMETERS
Introduction
The final set of financial parameters used to confirm the validity of the comparable group are asset quality parameters, presented in Exhibit 39 and 44. The three defined asset quality parameters are the ratios of nonperforming assets to total assets, repossessed assets to total assets and loan loss reserves to total assets at the end of the most recent period.
Nonperforming Assets to Total Assets
For the purposes of this analysis, nonperforming assets are defined as the sum of repossessed assets, loans delinquent ninety days or more but still accruing, and nonaccruing loans.
44
Nonperforming Assets to Total Assets (cont.)
Comprised wholly of repossessed assets, Auburn’s ratio of nonperforming assets to assets was 0.20 percent at December 31, 2007, compared to the national average of 1.28 percent for publicly-traded thrifts and the much lower average of 0.37 percent for New England thrifts. The ratio of the comparable group was a higher 0.67 percent at December 31, 2007. The Bank’s ratio of nonperforming assets to total assets was also significantly lower than industry and regional averages during the previous four years, indicating zero at December 31, 2004 and 2006, and 0.12 percent and 0.24 percent at December 31, 2004 and 2006, respectively. Auburn’s five year average ratio of nonperforming assets to total assets is a modest 0.11 percent.
Repossessed Assets to Total Assets
As stated above, Auburn had repossessed assets equal to 0.20 percent of total assets at December 31, 2007, and was absent repossessed assets at the end of its four previous calendar years. The comparable group had repossessed assets equal to a lower 0.04 percent of total assets at December 31, 2007, and had ratios of 0.03 percent, 0.11 percent, 0.21 percent and 0.17 percent at December 31, 2006, 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. Although repossessed assets are a component of nonperforming assets, as evaluated above, the primary perspective of this analysis is to ensure that the interest-earning asset base of the comparable group has not been impaired by a greater presence of repossessed assets, which can affect certain operating ratios including net interest margin. The national and regional ratios of repossessed assets to total assets were 0.20 percent and 0.03 percent, respectively, at December 31, 2007.
Allowance for Loan Losses
The Bank had an allowance for loan losses of $309,000, representing ratios to total assets and total loans of 0.49 percent and 0.56 percent, respectively at December 31, 2007. The national average ratios were 0.70 percent of assets and 0.97 percent of loans, at December 31,
45
Allowance for Loan Losses (cont.)
2007, and the regional averages were 0.62 percent and 0.94 percent, respectively. The comparable group’s ratio of allowance for loan losses to assets was similar to Auburn at 0.53 percent, but its ratio to loans was a higher 0.76 percent due to the comparable group’s lower ratio of loans to assets.
CONCLUSION
Although no single institution or group of institutions can be precisely the same as any other, due to the abundance of variables related to the characteristics of an institution’s condition, operations and environment, based on the foregoing parameters, as well as the detailed comparative metrics presented in Exhibits 39 through 44, it is our conclusion that the selected comparable is reasonable and valid, subject to the adjustments applied in the following section.
46
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V. | MARKET VALUE ADJUSTMENTS |
This is a conclusive section where adjustments are made to determine the pro forma market value or appraised value of the Corporation based on a comparison of Auburn with the comparable group. These adjustments will take into consideration such key items as earnings performance, primary market area, financial condition, asset and deposit growth, dividend payments, subscription interest, liquidity of the stock to be issued, management, and market conditions or marketing of the issue. It must be noted that all of the institutions in the comparable group have their differences among themselves and relative to the Bank, and, as a result, such adjustments become necessary.
EARNINGS PERFORMANCE
In analyzing earnings performance, consideration was given to net interest income, the amount and volatility of interest income and interest expense relative to changes in market area conditions and to changes in overall interest rates, the quality of assets as it relates to the presence of problem assets which may result in adjustments to earnings, due to charge-offs, the balance of current and historical classified assets and real estate owned, the balance of valuation allowances to support any problem assets or nonperforming assets, the amount and volatility of noninterest income, and the amount and ratio of noninterest expenses.
As discussed earlier, the Bank’s historical business model has focused on increasing its net interest income and net income; controlling its ratio of nonperforming assets; monitoring and maintaining its ratio of interest sensitive assets relative to interest sensitive liabilities, thereby controlling its sensitivity measure and its overall interest rate risk; and maintaining adequate allowances for loan losses to reduce the impact of any unforeseen charge-offs. The Bank has also closely monitored its overhead expenses. Auburn’s ratio of noninterest expense to average assets has indicated a constant and stable trend during the past five years, and that ratio remains moderately lower than comparable group, regional and industry averages, which is additionally significant considering the Bank’s smaller asset base. In the future, the Bank will focus on
47
Earnings Performance (cont.)
strengthening its net interest spread and net interest margin; increasing its noninterest income; increasing the amount and consistency of its net income; strengthening its recently lower return on assets; maintaining its lower balance of nonperforming assets; closely monitoring its ratio of interest sensitive assets relative to interest sensitive liabilities, and continuing to control its overhead expenses.
Earnings are often related to an institution’s ability to generate loans. The Bank was an active originator of both mortgage and nonmortgage loans in fiscal years 2006 and 2007 and during the six months ended December 31, 2007. Auburn’s highest volume of originations occurred in fiscal year 2006, when total originations of $22.0 million resulted in a net $4.6 million increase in loans. The Bank’s largest origination category in fiscal year 2006 was $9.5 million of permanent 1-4 family residential mortgage loans, of which 86 percent were fixed-rate and 14 percent were adjustable-rate. The predominant component of those 1-4 family residential mortgage loan originations was the refinancing of existing loans and its balance of such loans indicated an increase of approximately $2.3 million or 6.2 percent in fiscal year 2006. Originations of equity lines of credit and construction loans were $4.9 million and $4.4 million, respectively, in fiscal year 2006. Auburn experienced shrinkage in loans of $1.1 million or 1.9 percent in fiscal year 2007, with total originations of $15.0 million offset by reductions of $16.1 million. Permanent 1-4 family residential mortgage loan originations of $5.1 million decreased by $4.3 million or 45.8 percent compared to fiscal year 2006 and continued to be predominantly refinancing of existing loans. Construction loan originations decreased significantly to $1.4 million in fiscal year 2007, while equity lines of credit decreased only modestly to $4.0 million. During the six months ended December 31, 2007, originations were only modestly lower on an annualized basis than in fiscal year 2007, with permanent 1-4 family residential mortgage loan originations of $2.2 million, construction loan originations of $1.9 million and equity line of credit originations of $1.5 million. Total loan growth during the six months ended December 31, 2007, was $1.7 million or 3.2 percent, annualized at $3.4 million or 6.4 percent.
48
Earnings Performance (cont.)
Overall, from July 1, 2005, to December 31, 2007, Auburn originated $16.8 million of 1-4 family residential mortgage loans, $6.7 million of commercial mortgage loans, $7.6 million of construction loans, $10.4 million of equity lines of credit, $2.0 million of commercial loans and $1.2 million of consumer loans, for total originations of $44.0 million. Net of reductions, those originations generated an increase in loans of $5.2 million during that period.
The impact of Auburn’s primary lending efforts has been to generate a yield on average interest-earning assets of 6.70 percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, compared to a lower 6.13 percent for the comparable group, 6.58 percent for all thrifts and 6.08 percent for New England thrifts. The Bank’s ratio of interest income to average assets was 6.34 percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, higher than the comparable group at 5.73 percent, and higher than all thrifts at 6.08 percent and New England thrifts at 5.68 percent, reflecting the Bank’s lower shares of lower yielding cash and investments and mortgage-backed securities.
Auburn’s 4.14 percent cost of interest-bearing liabilities for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, was higher than the comparable group at 3.59 percent, all thrifts at 3.94 percent and New England thrifts at 3.56 percent. The Bank’s resulting net interest spread of 2.56 percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, was similar to the comparable group at 2.54 percent and New England thrifts at 2.52 percent, but modestly lower than all thrifts at 2.64 percent. The Bank’s net interest margin of 2.65 percent, based on average interest-earning assets for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, was lower than the comparable group at 3.01 percent, all thrifts at 2.98 percent and New England thrifts at 3.01 percent. Even with the impact of the conversion proceeds and the resultant increase in net interest margin of approximately 12 basis points as shown in the Business Plan pro formas, Auburn will still be characterized with a lower net interest margin than the comparable group.
The Bank’s ratio of noninterest income to assets was 0.22 percent, including gains, for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, substantially lower than the comparable group at 0.58
49
Earnings Performance (cont.)
percent, and more notably lower than all thrifts at 1.45 percent and New England thrifts at 0.91 percent. A moderate 10.9 percent of the Bank’s noninterest income was comprised of gains on the sale of loans and other assets.
The Bank’s operating expenses were modestly lower than the comparable group, all thrifts and New England thrifts. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, Auburn had an operating expenses to assets ratio of 2.41 percent compared to 2.73 percent for the comparable group, 2.89 percent for all thrifts and 2.72 percent for New England thrifts. Such lower operating expenses relate to the Bank’s historical trend of closely monitoring operating expenses. With the conversion and the resultant formation of the ESOP and the RRP, the Bank’s projected noninterest expenses as shown in the Business Plan pro formas will increase 13 basis points in 2009 from the current level.
For the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, Auburn generated a lower ratio of noninterest income, a lower ratio of noninterest expenses and a lower net interest margin relative to its comparable group. The Bank’s provision for loan losses was 0.01 percent of average assets, compared to 0.09 percent for the comparable group, 0.76 percent for all thrifts and 0.09 percent for New England thrifts. The Bank’s lower provision for loan losses during the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, is in line with its historical provisions. As a result, the Bank’s net income and core income were lower than the comparable group for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007. Based on net earnings, the Bank had a return on average assets of 0.33 percent, 0.26 percent, 0.12 percent, 0.23 percent and 0.21 percent in calendar years 2003 through 2007, respectively. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, the comparable group had a higher net ROAA of 0.45 percent, while all thrifts indicated an ROAA of 0.35 percent. The Bank’s core or normalized earnings, as shown in Exhibit 7, were modestly lower than its net earnings and resulted in a 0.20 percent core return on assets for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007. That core ROAA was also lower than the comparable group at 0.42 percent, all thrifts at 0.35 percent and New England thrifts at 0.42 percent. Despite these higher expenses, the efficiency ratio for Auburn is still similar to the comparable group.
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Earnings Performance (cont.)
Auburn’s earnings stream will continue to be dependent on a combination of the overall trends in interest rates, the consistency, reliability and variation of its noninterest income and overhead expenses, its provisions for loan losses and any charge-offs that may be required. The Bank’s noninterest income has remained generally stable from 2003, through 2007, while overhead expenses indicate a modest increase during that period, remaining lower than industry averages. The Bank’s net interest margin, lower than the comparable group, has been the primary result of its higher cost of interest-bearing liabilities and its larger ratio of interest bearing liabilities to assets, partially offset by its higher yield on interest-earning assets.
The Bank’s balance of nonperforming assets indicates a low five year 0.11 percent average ratio to assets and net charge-offs (recoveries) of $41,000 in 2003, - -0- in 2003, -0- in 2004, $(10,000) in 2005, and -0- in 2006 and -0- in 2007.
In recognition of the foregoing earnings related factors, with consideration of Auburn’s current performance measures, recognizing the upward impact of conversion proceeds on net interest margin offset by the cost impact of the ESOP and RRP expenses, a minimal downward adjustment has been made to the Corporation’s pro forma market value for earnings performance.
MARKET AREA
Auburn’s primary market area for both retail deposits and lending consists of Androscoggin County, Maine, the location of both its offices in the cities of Auburn and Lewiston. As discussed in Section II, from 1990 to 2000, this primary market area experienced a slight decrease in population and a modest increase in households. The market area had a similar per capita income and household income to Maine and the United States. From 2000 to 2007, the population of Androscoggin County increased by 5.9 percent and the county’s households increased by a greater 7.6 percent, both growth rates being similar to Maine but
51
Market Area (cont.)
modestly lower than the United States. Between 2007 and 2012, the population and households in Androscoggin County are projected to increase at somewhat slower rates of 4.2 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. In both 1990 and 2000, the median housing values and median rents in the Bank’s market area were lower than in both Maine and the United States. The average unemployment rate in Androscoggin County was 5.0 percent in 2003, compared to an identical 5.0 percent in Maine and 6.0 percent in the United States. By December of 2007, the county’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.6 percent, which is the same as both Maine and the United States.
Approximately 82 percent of the Bank’s deposits are in its Auburn office, with the remaining 18 percent in its Lewiston office. Although Lewiston has a larger population and number of households, Auburn indicates a higher per capita income and median household income than Lewiston. In the Bank’s primary market area, the services sector represented the primary source of employment in 2000, followed by the wholesale/retail and manufacturing sectors, consistent with both state and national proportions.
The financial competition in Androscoggin County, based on total deposits, is fairly strong in the context of the county’s population, demographics and economic base, with thrifts and commercial banks holding similar deposit balances. With deposits of $45.0 million at December 31, 2007, Auburn held modest market shares of thrift and total financial institution deposits.
In recognition of the foregoing factors, we believe that no adjustment is warranted for the Bank’s primary market area relative to the comparable group.
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FINANCIAL CONDITION
The financial condition of Auburn is discussed in Section I and shown in Exhibits 1, 2, 5, and 12 through 23, and is compared to the comparable group in Exhibits 41, 42 and 43. The Corporation’s ratio of total equity to total assets was 7.06 percent at December 31, 2007, which was significantly lower than the comparable group at 14.88 percent, all thrifts at 11.01 percent and New England thrifts at 15.03 percent. With the minority offering completed at the midpoint of the valuation range, the Corporation’s pro forma equity to assets ratio will increase to approximately 9.5 percent, and the Bank’s pro forma equity to assets ratio will increase to approximately 8.3 percent.
The Bank’s mix of assets and liabilities indicates both similarities to and variations from its comparable group. Auburn had a higher 85.8 percent ratio of net loans to total assets at December 31, 2007, compared to the comparable group at 69.0 percent. All thrifts indicated a lower 72.2 percent, as did New England thrifts at 66.6 percent. The Bank’s 7.9 percent share of cash and investments was lower than the comparable group at 16.7 percent, while all thrifts were at 13.9 percent and New England thrifts were at 17.9 percent. Auburn’s 0.83 percent ratio of mortgage-backed securities to total assets was much lower than the comparable group at 9.0 percent and all thrifts at 8.5 percent. The Bank’s 70.9 percent ratio of deposits to total assets was very modestly lower than the comparable group at 73.1 percent, but higher than all thrifts at 51.5 percent and New England thrifts at 63.0 percent. Auburn’s 21.5 percent ratio of borrowed funds to assets was higher than the comparable group at 10.5 percent, much lower than all thrifts at 35.3 percent and higher than New England thrifts at 13.5 percent.
Auburn had intangible assets of 0.11 percent of assets, consisting of mortgage servicing rights, and had repossessed real estate equal to 0.20 percent of assets, compared to ratios of 0.78 percent and 0.04 percent of intangible assets and real estate owned, respectively, for the comparable group. All thrifts had intangible assets of 0.73 percent and real estate owned of 0.20 percent. Apart from its 0.20 ratio to assets of repossessed real estate, the Bank had no additional nonperforming assets at December 31, 2007. The comparable group had a higher 0.78 percent ratio of nonperforming assets to total assets, as did all thrifts at 1.28 percent and New England
53
Financial Condition (cont.)
thrifts at 0.37 percent. Historically, the Bank’s ratio of nonperforming assets to total assets has been generally modest and lower than industry averages. The Bank’s ratio of nonperforming assets to total assets was 0.12 percent, zero, 0.24 percent, zero, and 0.20 percent at December 31, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively, averaging 0.11 percent for the five years.
The Bank had a modestly higher 14.0 percent share of high risk real estate loans, compared to 12.1 percent for the comparable group and 10.3 percent for all thrifts. The regulatory definition of high risk real estate loans is all mortgage loans other than those secured by one- to four-family residential properties.
At December 31, 2007, Auburn had $309,000 of allowances for loan losses, which represented 0.49 percent of assets and 0.56 percent of total loans. The comparable group indicated allowances equal to a similar 0.53 percent of assets and a larger 0.762 percent of total loans. More significant, however, is an institution’s ratio of allowances for loan losses to nonperforming assets, since a portion of nonperforming assets might eventually be charged off. Auburn’s $309,000 of allowances for loan losses, represented a strong and favorable 249.19 percent of nonperforming assets at December 31, 2007, compared to the comparable group’s much lower 83.73 percent, with all thrifts at a lower 146.89 percent and New England thrifts at a higher 326.24 percent. Auburn’s higher ratio of allowance for losses to nonperforming assets was due to the Bank’s much lower nonperforming assets. Auburn’s ratio of net charge-offs to average total loans was less than 0.01 percent, compared to 0.12 percent for the comparable group, 0.15 percent for all thrifts and 0.08 percent for New England thrifts. This ratio reflects the Bank’s maintenance of a modestly lower average ratio of reserves to loans, and a higher ratio of reserves to nonperforming assets, combined with the Bank’s larger share of higher risk loans and much lower nonperforming assets.
Auburn has a moderate level of interest rate risk, evidenced by the decrease in its net portfolio value to assets ratio under conditions of rising interest rates. As discussed previously, the Bank’s post shock NPV ratio based on a 200 basis point rise in interest rates is 6.45 percent
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Financial Condition (cont.)
and indicates a 218 basis point decrease from its 8.63 percent based on no change in interest rates. In order to moderate its interest rate risk, the Bank’s strategy has been to originate and retain adjustable-rate mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securities and commercial loans. At the close of fiscal year 2007, approximately 25 percent of the Bank’s mortgage loans and 80 percent of its commercial loans carried adjustable rates. The Bank also recognizes that the planned minority stock offering will immediately strengthen the Bank’s post shock NPV ratio.
Compared to the comparable group, we believe that no adjustment is warranted for Auburn’s current financial condition.
BALANCE SHEET AND EARNINGS GROWTH
During its most recent five calendar years, Auburn has been characterized by lower average rates of growth in assets, loans and deposits relative to its comparable group. The Bank’s average annual asset growth rate from 2003 to 2007 was 2.2 percent, compared to a higher 8.0 percent for the comparable group, 9.2 percent for all thrifts, and 10.9 percent for New England thrifts. The Bank’s lower asset growth rate is reflective primarily of its lower loan and deposit growth and lower than average earnings during that five year period. The Bank’s loan portfolio indicates an average annual increase of 7.3 percent from 2003 to 2007, compared to average growth rates of 14.4 percent for the comparable group, 10.9 percent for all thrifts and 13.2 percent for New England thrifts.
Auburn’s deposits indicate an average annual increase of 4.6 percent from 2003 to 2007. Annual deposit growth was from negative growth of 0.7 percent in 2007 to a high of 14.6 percent in 2005, compared to average five year growth rates of 5.9 percent for the comparable group, 8.3 percent for all thrifts and 7.7 percent for New England thrifts. In addition to its lower rate of deposit growth, the Bank had a higher 23.4 percent five average ratio of borrowed funds to assets, compared to the comparable group at 8.9 percent.
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Balance Sheet and Earnings Growth (cont.)
The Bank’s ability to maintain its asset base and deposits in the future is, to a great extent, dependent on its being able to competitively price its loan and deposit products, to maintain a high quality of service to its customers, to increase its market share and to continue its loan origination activity. Androscoggin County experienced a small decrease in population and a modest increase in households between 1990 and 2000, followed by modest increases in both population and households from 2000 to 2007. Those modest increases are projected to continue through 2012. The Bank’s primary market area indicates 2000 and 2007 per capita income and median household income modestly lower than Maine and the United States. In 2000, the median housing value and median rent in Androscoggin County were also lower than Maine and the United States.
The Bank’s historical dependence on its current primary market area could result in lower asset growth in the future as a result of its competitive operating environment in a market area with modest growth in population and households, as well as per capita and median household income lower than state and national levels. Auburn’s internal projections indicate modest 2.8 percent deposit growth in 2008, partially reflecting the outflow of deposits to purchase stock, followed by continuing modest growth of 4.3 percent and 4.0 percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Total portfolio loans are projected to experience moderate growth in each of the next three years, as conversion proceeds are deployed, with cash and investments also rising modestly. Auburn’s competitive operating environment, together with its projected deposit growth during the next few years, combined with moderate loan growth, should result in the continuation of lower asset, loan and deposit growth for the Bank relative to the comparable group.
As previously discussed, Auburn’s historical net interest margin and net earnings have been lower than the comparable group, as well as regional and national averages. Based on the deployment of offering proceeds, the Bank’s internal projections indicate that its volume of interest income and its yield on interest-earning assets will increase very modestly in 2008, 2009 and 2010, resulting in a very mildly increasing trend in ROAA and ROAE. It is anticipated,
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Balance Sheet and Earnings Growth (cont.)
nevertheless, that Auburn’s net interest margin and ROAA will not equal or exceed those of the comparable group within that three year horizon. Additionally, although the Bank’s ratio of equity to assets will increase by between 100 basis points and 200 basis points following the completion of its minority offering, that ratio is projected to decrease modestly from 2008 to 2010 as a result of leveraging strategies and will remain significantly lower that the comparable group average.
Based on the foregoing factors, we have concluded that a downward adjustment to the pro forma value is warranted for the Bank’s potential for balance sheet and earnings growth relative to the comparable group.
DIVIDEND PAYMENTS
The Corporation has not committed to pay an initial cash dividend on its common stock. The future payment of cash dividends will depend upon such factors as earnings performance, financial condition, capital position, growth, asset quality and regulatory limitations.
All ten of the comparable group institutions paid cash dividends during the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, for an average dividend yield of 3.08 percent and an average payout ratio of 160.25 percent. The average dividend yield is 1.97 percent for New England thrifts and 2.62 percent for all thrifts and the average payout ratio is 71.91 percent for New England thrifts and 69.84 percent for all thrifts. Such a higher payout ratio for the comparable group relates to the structure of mutual holding companies and the waiver of dividends on the majority shares owned by the mutual holding company.
In our opinion, no adjustment to the pro forma market value of the Bank is warranted at this time related to the dividend payment.
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SUBSCRIPTION INTEREST
In 2007, investors’ interest in new issues declined significantly compared to 2006 and subscription levels have been consistently lower. Overall, the reaction of IPO investors appears generally to be related to a number of factors, including the financial performance and condition of the converting thrift institution, the strength of the local economy, general market conditions, the anticipation of continuing merger/acquisition activity in the thrift industry, current aftermarket pricing activity and the indirect impact of the subprime market concerns and actual losses by many subprime lenders in bank stock prices. It has also been observed that in general, first and second stage mutual holding company offerings generate lower subscription levels than full conversions.
Auburn will direct its offering primarily to depositors and residents in its market area. The board of directors and officers anticipate purchasing approximately $150,000 or 5.6 percent of the stock offered to the public based on the appraised midpoint valuation. The Bank will form an ESOP, which plans to purchase 3.43 percent of the total shares issued in the offering, including the shares issued to Auburn Bancorp, MHC, the mutual holding company. Additionally, the Prospectus restricts to 10,000 shares, based on the $10.00 per share purchase price, the total number of shares in the conversion that may be purchased by a single person, and to 15,000 shares by persons and associates acting in concert.
The Bank has secured the services of Keefe Bruyette & Woods, Inc., to assist in the marketing and sale of the conversion stock.
Based on the size of the offering, recent market movement and current market conditions, local market interest, price activity in the aftermarket, the terms of the offering and recent subscription levels for initial mutual holding company offerings, we believe that a downward adjustment is warranted for the Corporation’s anticipated subscription interest.
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LIQUIDITY OF THE STOCK
The Corporation will offer its shares through a subscription offering and, if required, a subsequent community offering with the assistance of Keefe Bruyette & Woods, Inc. The stock of the Corporation will be quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board.
The Bank’s total public offering is modestly smaller in size to the average market value of the comparable group. The comparable group has an average market value of $69.1 million for the stock outstanding compared to a midpoint public offering of $2.7 million for the Corporation, less the ESOP and the estimated 15,000 shares to be purchased by officers and directors, which will reduce the Corporation’s public market capitalization to approximately $2.3 million. Of the ten institutions in the comparable group, nine trade on NASDAQ and one trades on the American Stock Exchange.
In further examining and analyzing the market for publicly-traded thrift stocks, we compared various characteristics of the 74 mutual holding companies with the 204 fully converted stock companies. Our findings indicate that the fully converted companies have an average market capitalization of $355.8 million, while the mutual holding companies’ average market capitalization is $242.6 or 32 percent smaller; and that mutual holding companies average 17.0 million shares, with fully converted stock companies averaging 25.4 million shares. We find it significant, therefore, that the average daily trading volume of mutual holding companies was 16,982 shares during the past twelve months, while fully converted stock companies indicated an average daily volume of 433,004 shares, 25.5 times higher than the mutual holding companies. The market capitalization of the mutual holding companies was only 32 percent smaller than the fully converted companies and their average number of shares outstanding was only 33.1 percent smaller than the fully converted companies, while their trading volume was 96.1 percent lower.
Based on the average market capitalization, shares outstanding and daily trading volume of the comparable group, as well as the relative trading volume of publicly-traded mutual holding
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Liquidity of the Stock (cont.)
companies, we have concluded that a downward adjustment to the Corporation’s pro forma market value is warranted relative to the anticipated liquidity of its stock.
MANAGEMENT
The president and chief executive officer of Auburn is Allen T. Sterling, who has served the Bank in that capacity since 1996 and will become a director of the Bank, the Corporation and the mutual holding company following the MHC reorganization. Mr. Sterling has been in bank management since 1973. Rachel A. Haines is currently senior vice president and treasurer of Auburn and has served as treasurer since 2005, joining the Bank in 1986. Bruce M. Ray has served as senior vice president and senior loan officer of Auburn since 1997 and was a loan officer at two other Maine savings institutions from 1972 to 1997.
During the past five years, Auburn has been able to increase its deposit base, total assets and total equity, maintain a stable equity to asset ratio, control nonperforming assets, classified loans and charge-offs, maintain a reasonable overhead expense position, particularly for a smaller institution, and slightly increase its market share in spite of strong competition. Although the Bank’s earnings and return on assets are below comparable group and industry averages, its operating expenses have been similar or below to such averages and management is confident that its offices are well positioned for reasonable growth and higher profitability.
Overall, we believe the Bank to be professionally and knowledgeably managed, as are the comparable group institutions. It is our opinion that no adjustment to the pro forma market value of the Corporation is warranted for management.
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MARKETING OF THE ISSUE
The necessity to build a new issue discount into the stock price of a converting thrift institution continues to be a closely examined issue in recognition of uncertainty among investors as a result of the thrift industry’s dependence on interest rate trends, recent volatility in the stock market and pending federal legislation related to the regulation of financial institutions. Increased merger/acquisition activity, as well as the presence of new competitors in the financial institution industry, such as de novo institutions, investment firms, insurance companies and mortgage companies, have resulted in increased pressure on an individual institution’s ability to attract retail deposits at normal rates rather than premium rates and to deploy new funds in a timely and profitable manner.
Based on prevailing market conditions, which have pressured the banking industry, particularly considering weaknesses in the aftermarket for initial financial institution offerings, we believe that a new issue discount applied to the price to book valuation approach is appropriate and necessary in current offerings and, in our opinion, applicable to this particular offering. Consequently, at this time we have made a downward adjustment to the Corporation’s pro forma market value related to a new issue discount.
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VI. | VALUATION APPROACH, METHODS AND CONCLUSION |
Valuation Approach
As indicated in Section 3 of this Appraisal, in order to moderate the differences among the twelve comparable group companies, all of which are mutual holding companies, we will derive their pricing ratios on a fully converted basis by applying pro forma second stage conversion assumptions to their current financial structure. Our application to the Corporation of the market value adjustments relative to the comparable group determined in Section 4 will be the basis for the pro forma market value of the Corporation on a fully converted basis, pursuant to regulatory guidelines.
Exhibit 45 presents the Comparable Group Financial and Per Share Data and Exhibit 46 presents the Comparable Group Share and Market Data reflecting the comparable group’s current mutual holding company structure.
Exhibit 47 presents the adjusted Comparable Group Share and Market Data subsequent to our application of pro forma second stage conversion assumptions to the comparable group’s current mutual holding company structure. Those assumptions include the sale of all MHC shares at their current trading price on February 15, 2008; the reduction of the gross proceeds to recognize the impact of exemplary and customary offering expenses and benefit plans; and the reinvestment of the net proceeds at reasonable and current market rates, tax effected, to determine the pro forma earnings impact of the net proceeds.
Valuation Methods
Historically, the method most frequently used by this firm to determine the pro forma market value of common stock for thrift institutions has been the price to book value ratio method, due to the volatility of earnings in the thrift industry in the early to mid-1990s. As earnings in the thrift industry stabilized and improved in the late 1990s, additional attention has
62
Valuation Methods (cont.)
been given to the price to core earnings method, particularly considering increases in stock prices during those years. During the past few years, however, as fluctuating interest rates have had varying effects on the earnings of individual institutions, depending on the nature of their operations, the price to book value method has again become pertinent and meaningful to the objective of discerning commonality and comparability among institutions. In our opinion, the price to book value method is the appropriate method upon which to place primary emphasis in determining the pro forma market value of the Corporation. Additional analytical and correlative attention will be given to the price to core earnings method and the price to assets method.
In applying each of the valuation methods, consideration was given to the adjustments to the Corporation’s pro forma market value discussed in Section V. Downward adjustments were made for the Bank’s earnings performance, balance sheet and earnings growth, stock liquidity, subscription interest and for the marketing of the issue. No adjustments were made for financial condition, market area, dividend payments and management.
Valuation Range
In addition to the pro forma market value, we have defined a valuation range recognizing the 45 percent public offering and the 55 percent interest in the Corporation to be retained by Auburn Bancorp, MHC the Maine chartered mutual holding company parent of the Corporation. The pro forma market value or appraised value will also be referred to as the “midpoint value”, with the remaining points in the valuation range based on the number of shares offered to the public. The number of public shares at the minimum will be 15 percent less than at the midpoint; increasing at the maximum to 15 percent over the midpoint; and further increasing at the maximum, as adjusted, commonly referred to as the supermaximum, to 15 percent over the maximum.
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Price to Book Value Method
In the valuation of thrift institutions, the price to book value method focuses on an institution’s financial condition. Exhibit 48 shows the fully converted average and median price to book value ratios for the comparable group, which were 79.02 percent and 78.45 percent, respectively. The full comparable group indicated a moderately narrow range, from a low of 68.08 percent to a high of 93.13 percent. The comparable group had slightly higher average and median price to tangible book value ratios of 81.87 percent and 82.10 percent, respectively, with the same range of 68.08 percent to 93.13 percent. Excluding the low and the high in the group, the comparable group’s price to book value range narrowed modestly from a low of 69.51 percent to a high of 85.69; and the comparable group’s price to tangible book value range narrowed modestly from a low of 75.91 percent to a high of 89.49 percent.
The Corporation’s book value was $4,481,000 and its tangible book value was $4,499,000 at December 31, 2007. Considering the foregoing factors, in conjunction with the adjustments made in Section V, we have determined a fully converted pro forma price to book value ratio of 64.69 percent and a corresponding fully converted price to tangible book value ratio of 64.57 percent at the midpoint. The fully converted price to book value ratio increases from 60.25 percent at the minimum to 72.03 percent at the maximum, as adjusted, while the fully converted price to tangible book value ratio increases from 60.12 percent at the minimum to 71.91 percent at the maximum, as adjusted.
The Corporation’s fully converted pro forma price to book value ratio of 64.59 percent at the midpoint, as calculated using the prescribed formulary computation indicated in Exhibit 49, is influenced by the Bank’s capitalization and local markets, subscription interest in thrift stocks and overall market and economic conditions. Further, the Corporation’s ratio of equity to assets after the completion of the public offering at the midpoint of the valuation range will be approximately 13.4 percent compared to 14.9 percent for the comparable group.
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Price to Core Earnings Method
The foundation of the price to core earnings method is the determination of the core earnings base to be used, followed by the calculation of an appropriate price to core earnings multiple. The Corporation’s after tax core earnings for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, were $127,000 (reference Exhibit 7) and its net earnings were a higher $132,000 for that period. To opine the pro forma market value of the Corporation using the price to core earnings method, we applied the core earnings base of $127,000.
In determining the fully converted price to core earnings multiple, we reviewed the ranges of fully converted price to core earnings and price to net earnings multiples for the comparable group and all publicly-traded thrifts. As indicated in Exhibit 48, the average fully converted price to core earnings multiple for the comparable group was 35.51 while the median was a lower 30.74. The average price to net earnings multiple was a similar 33.57 and the median multiple was 29.27. The comparable group’s fully converted price to core earnings multiple was moderately higher than the 30.42 average multiple for all publicly-traded, FDIC-insured thrifts and higher than their median of 19.66. The range of the fully converted price to core earnings multiple for the comparable group was from a low of 16.32 to a high of 68.35. The range in the fully converted price to core earnings multiple for the comparable group, excluding the high and low ranges, was from a low multiple of 22.05 to a high of 51.27 times earnings for eight of the ten institutions in the group, indicating a modest narrowing of the range.
Consideration was given to the adjustments to the Corporation’s pro forma market value discussed in Section V. In recognition of those adjustments, we have determined a fully converted price to core earnings multiple of 44.33 at the midpoint, based on the Corporation’s core earnings of $127,000 for twelve months ended December 31, 2007. The Corporation’s fully converted core earnings multiple of 44.33 is modestly higher than its net earnings multiple of 42.62 as a result of the earnings adjustments previously noted and detailed in Exhibit 7.
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Price to Assets Method
The final valuation method is the price to assets method. This method is not frequently used, since the calculation incorporates neither an institution’s equity position nor its earnings performance. Additionally, the prescribed formulary computation of value using the pro forma price to net assets method does not recognize the runoff of deposits concurrently allocated to the purchase of conversion stock or incorporate any adjustment for intangible assets, returning a pro forma price to assets ratio below its true ratio following conversion.
Exhibit 48 indicates that the average fully converted price to assets ratio of the comparable group was 18.24 percent and the median was 15.81 percent. The range in the price to assets ratios for the comparable group varied from a low of 7.63 percent to a high of 35.43 percent. The range narrows modestly with the elimination of the two extremes in the group to a low of 8.49 percent and a high of 25.49 percent.
Consistent with the previously noted adjustments, it is our opinion that an appropriate price to assets ratio for the Corporation is 8.66 percent at the midpoint, which ranges from a low of 7.45 percent at the minimum to 11.18 percent at the maximum, as adjusted.
Valuation Analysis and Summary
Exhibits 49 through 53 present the pro forma valuation analysis and conclusions, pricing ratios, use of offering proceeds and a summary of the valuation premiums or discounts relative to the three valuation approaches based on the Corporation and the comparable group as fully converted.
Exhibit 54 presents the discounts or premiums of the Corporation’s fully converted pricing ratios relative to those of the fully converted comparable group. Based on the Corporation’s fully converted price to book value ratio and its equity of $4,481,000 at December 31, 2007, the Bank’s price to book value ratio of 64.69 percent represents a midpoint discount
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Valuation Analysis and Summary (cont.)
relative to the fully converted comparable group of 18.13 percent. The Corporation’s fully converted price to core earnings multiple of 44.33 and price to net earnings multiple of 42.62 times earnings represent midpoint premiums relative to the fully converted comparable group of 32.05 percent and 26.94 percent, respectively. Recognizing the Corporation’s December 31, 2007, asset base of $63,458,000, the Bank’s fully converted price to assets ratio of 8.66 percent represent a midpoint discount relative to the fully converted comparable group of 52.49 percent.
Exhibits 55 through 60 present the pro forma valuation analysis and conclusions, pricing ratios, use of offering proceeds and a summary of the valuation premiums or discounts relative to the three valuation approaches based on the Corporation’s minority offering and the reported pricing ratios of the comparable group in their current mutual holding company structure.
Exhibit 61 presents the discounts or premiums of the Corporation’s minority offering pricing ratios relative to those actually reported by comparable group. At the midpoint, the Corporation’s minority offering price to book value ratio of 95.92 percent represents a discount of 30.95 percent relative to the comparable group and decreases to 18.76 percent at the maximum, as adjusted. The price to core earnings multiple of 47.04 for the Corporation at the midpoint value indicates a discount of 25.60 percent, decreasing to a smaller discount of 3.36 percent at the maximum, as adjusted. The Corporation’s price to assets ratio of 9.06 percent at the midpoint represents a discount of 57.72 percent, decreasing to a discount of 44.73 percent at the maximum, as adjusted.
Valuation Conclusion
As presented in Exhibit 49, the fully converted pro forma valuation range of the Corporation is from a minimum of $5,015,000 or 501,500 shares at $10.00 per share to a maximum of $6,785,000 or 678,500 shares at $10.00 per share, with a maximum, as adjusted, of $7,802,750 or 780,275 shares at $10.00 per share. Exhibit 49 also presents in detail the total
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Valuation Conclusion (cont.)
number of shares to be issued at each valuation range and the respective number of shares issued to the mutual holding company, the public and the foundation.
It is our opinion that, as of February 15, 2008, the pro forma market value of the Corporation was $5,900,000 at the midpoint, representing a total of 590,000 shares at $10.00 per share, including 225,675 shares or 45 percent of the total shares offered to the public and 324,500 shares or 55.00 percent of the total shares issued to Auburn Bancorp, MHC, the mutual holding company.
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