Economic Developments1
The global economy was at a mature stage of the business cycle for most of 2019 and early 2020. Though the expansion was moderating, the major trade tensions that had dogged the global outlook for the past few years had eased. Many central banks had begun easing monetary policy gradually to try to maintain the expansion.
Real GDP in 2019 grew 1.7 per cent, after growth of 2.0 per cent in 2018. Throughout 2019, and into the early part of 2020, the labour market continued to be strong, adding about 25,000 jobs per month over this period. Commodity prices, responding to slowing global demand, saw modest declines; the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to US$57 per barrel from US$65 per barrel in 2018. Short-term interest rates remained around 1.7 per cent for most of 2019 as the Bank of Canada paused its monetary policy tightening cycle for the year. However, long-term interest rates continued to decline throughout the year, averaging 1.6 per cent, down from 2.3 per cent in 2018, as global monetary policy continued to gradually ease.
Canada’s nominal GDP, the broadest measure of the tax base, grew 3.6 per cent in 2019, down from 3.9 per cent in 2018, as real GDP growth moderated towards potential.
The global and Canadian economies, however, soon experienced an historic disruption in the final two weeks of the fiscal year. The COVID-19 pandemic became an unprecedented threat to our health, and a global economic challenge. With unprecedented speed and breadth, the COVID-19 pandemic affected nearly all aspects of life. Public health containment measures led to large segments of the economy coming to an abrupt stop, with activity in some industries driven to near zero. Workplaces and schools were closed, travel restricted, and public gatherings banned, resulting in drastic impacts on many aspects of Canadians’ lives. In March 2020 alone, more than 3 million people lost their jobs or saw their hours significantly scaled back.
The toll on the broader economy in 2020 is expected to be the largest and most sudden economic contraction since the Great Depression. By just the first quarter of 2020, Canada had already witnessed a large decline in real GDP, a drop in both short- and long-term interest rates to record lows, and a steep decline in commodity prices, including for oil. As the recovery has taken hold over the summer of 2020, many of these indicators have since bounced back; however, activity remains depressed in many sectors.
The Government of Canada’s rapid and substantial economic support measures have helped protect Canadians from a far worse economic outcome, prevented more layoffs, and have laid a foundation for a faster and stronger recovery.
Going forward, the threat of a resurgent wave of COVID-19 and uncertainty surrounding the durability of the economic recovery, and the transition to a post-pandemic world, are the key risks to the global and domestic economies. The fiscal results for 2019–20 only partially reflect the impact of COVID-19. In 2020–21, the severe deterioration in the economic outlook plus the temporary measures implemented through the government’s Economic Response Plan are expected to result in a projected deficit of $343.2 billion in 2020–21.2
1 | This section incorporates data available up to and including August 26, 2020. The annual results are on a calendar year basis, unless otherwise specified. |
2 | Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020. |