Reserves for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | 6. Reserves for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses: Activity in the consolidated reserves for unpaid losses and LAE is summarized as follows (in thousands): 2017 2016 2015 Balance at January 1 $ 481,567 $ 450,878 $ 415,135 Less reinsurance recoverable 123,237 102,791 91,943 Net balance at January 1 358,330 348,087 323,192 Incurred related to: Current year 248,203 246,080 237,102 Prior years 40,105 7,608 (6,953) Total incurred 288,308 253,688 230,149 Paid related to: Current year 92,873 93,067 83,132 Prior years 181,277 150,378 122,122 Total paid 274,150 243,445 205,254 Net balance at December 31 372,488 358,330 348,087 Plus reinsurance recoverable 154,612 123,237 102,791 Balance at December 31 $ 527,100 $ 481,567 $ 450,878 The $40.1 million unfavorable net development, $7.6 million un favorable net development and $7.0 million favorable net development in prior accident years recognized in 201 7 , 201 6 and 201 5 , respectively, represent changes in our loss reserve estimates. In 2017 and 2016 , the aggregate loss reserve estimates for prior years were increased to reflect unfavorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate losses would be more than the previous estimates. The unfavorable prior year reserve development during the twelve months ended December 31, 2017 was primarily driven by the continued emergence of increased frequency and severity trends in our primary commercial auto lines of business within our Contract Binding operating unit, which was representative of industry trends. In 2015, the aggregate loss reserve estimates for prior years were decreased to reflect favorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate losses would be less than the previous estimates. Generally, changes in reserves are caused by variations between actual experience and previous expectations and by reduced emphasis on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method due to the aging of the accident years. The impact from the unfavorable (favorable) net prior years’ loss development on each reporting segment is presented below: December 31, 2017 2016 Specialty Commercial Segment $ 40,477 $ 12,502 Standard Commercial Segment (970) (9,901) Personal Segment 598 5,007 Corporate - - Total unfavorable net prior year development $ 40,105 $ 7,608 The following describes the primary factors behind each segment’s prior accident year loss reserve development for the years ended December 31, 2017 and 2016: Year ended December 31, 2017 : · Specialty Commercial Segment. Our Contract Binding operating unit experienced net unfavorable development in the 201 6 and prior accident years primarily driven by the continued emergence of increased frequency and severity trends in the commercial auto lines of business. Our Specialty Commercial operating unit experienced net unfavorable development in general aviation primarily in the 2016, 201 3 and 2011 and prior accident year s , commercial excess liability primarily in the 2013 accident year and specialty risk programs primarily in the 2015 and prior accident years, partially offset by net favorable development in the medical professional liability and primary/excess commercial property lines of business primarily in the 2016 accident years. · Standard Commercial Segment . Our Standard Commercial P&C operating unit experienced net favorable development primarily in the general liability line of business in the 2016 and prior accident years, partially offset by unfavorable development in the 2016 and prior accident years in the occupational accident line of business. · Personal Segment . Net unfavorable development in our Specialty Personal Lines operating unit was mostly attributable to the 2016, 2014, 2013 and 2010 and prior accident years, partially offset by favorable development in the 2015 and 2011 accident year s . Year ended December 31, 2016: · Specialty Commercial Segment . Our Contract Binding operating unit experienced net unfavorable development primarily in commercial auto liability in the 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2009 and prior accident years. Our Specialty Commercial operating unit experienced net favorable development primarily in the general aviation and commercial excess liability, partially offset by net unfavorable development in our medical professional liability lines of business and specialty risk programs . · Standard Commercial Segment. Our Standard Commercial P&C operating unit experienced net favorable development primarily in the general liability line of business in the 2011-2015 accident years and the 2009 and prior accident years, partially offset by net unfavorable development in the occupational accident line of business in the 2014 and 2015 accident years. Our Workers Compensation operating unit experienced net favorable development in the 2015 and prior accident years. · Personal Segment . Our Specialty Personal Lines operating unit experienced net unfavorable development attributable to the 2015 and prior accident years in the private passenger auto liability line of business . In the opinion of management, our reserves represent the best estimate of our ultimate liabilities, based on currently known facts, current law, current technology and assumptions considered reasonable where facts are not known. Due to the significant uncertainties and related management judgments, there can be no assurance that future favorable or unfavorable loss development, which may be material, will not occur. Short-Duration Contract Disclosures ASU 2015-09, “Disclosures about Short-Duration Contracts” (Topic 944), requires insurers to make disclosures about their liability for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses for short-duration insurance contracts. These disclosures include tables showing incurred and paid claims development information (net of reinsurance and excluding unallocated loss adjustment expenses) which are disaggregated based on the characteristics of the insurance contracts that the insurer writes and other factors specific to the reporting entity. The information should be disclosed by accident year for the number of years claims typically remain outstanding, but need not be more than 10 years, including a reconciliation of the disaggregated information to the consolidated statement of financial position. We have evaluated the disaggregation criteria and concluded that the basis for our disaggregation of this information is by each of our three reportable segments. See Note 10, “Segment Information,” for additional information regarding our three reportable segments. Reserves for Incurred But Not Reported (“IBNR”) Claims Reserves for IBNR claims are based on the estimated ultimate cost of settling claims, including the effects of inflation and other social and economic factors, using past experience adjusted for current trends and any other factors that would modify past experience. We use a variety of statistical and actuarial techniques to analyze current claims costs, including frequency and severity data and prevailing economic, social and legal factors. Each such method has its own set of assumptions and outputs, and each has strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Since no single estimation method is superior to another method in all situations, the methods and assumptions used to project loss reserves will vary by coverage and product. We use what we believe to be the most appropriate set of actuarial methods and assumptions for each product line grouping and coverage. While the loss projection methods may vary by product line and coverage, the general approach for calculating IBNR remains the same: ultimate losses are forecasted first, and that amount is reduced by the amount of cumulative paid claims and case reserves. Reserves established in prior years are adjusted as loss experience develops and new information becomes available. Adjustments to previously estimated reserves are reflected in the results of operations in the year in which they are made. As described above, various actuarial methods are utilized to determine the reserves for losses and LAE recorded in our Consolidated Balance Sheets. Weightings of methods at a detailed level may change from evaluation to evaluation based on a number of observations, measures, and time elements. Methodology for Determining Cumulative Number of Reported Claims A claim file is created when the Company is notified of an actual demand for payment, notified of an event that may lead to a demand for payment or when it is determined that a demand for payment could possibly lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage on the same policy or on another policy. The cumulative number of reported claims is predominately measured at a coverage level by occurrence, with the exception of our Specialty Commercial operating unit which is predominately measured at the claim level. Reported occurrences that do not result in a liability are included in reported claims. The Company does not generate claim counts for ceded business. Incurred & Paid Claims Development Disclosures The following tables provide information about incurred and cumulative paid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (“ALAE”), net of reinsurance for our three reportable segments, our Specialty Commercial Segment, our Standard Commercial Segment and our Personal Segment. The incurred and paid losses by accident year information presented for all segments in the below tables for calendar years prior to 2016 is required supplementary information and is unaudited. The following tables also include IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims and the cumulative number of reported claims as of December 31, 2017 ($ in thousands): Specialty Commercial Segment Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, IBNR Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2017 2008 $ 55,617 $ 56,150 $ 58,143 $ 57,923 $ 56,579 $ 55,157 $ 55,425 $ 55,457 $ 55,864 $ 56,272 $ (534) 7,373 2009 60,950 62,679 61,196 59,471 59,831 59,635 59,988 61,361 61,761 60 5,459 2010 74,187 78,089 75,695 77,593 78,003 77,972 77,631 78,253 900 5,001 2011 88,679 87,558 91,059 90,713 89,737 87,793 87,833 1,102 5,790 2012 106,371 111,253 111,841 115,709 116,320 117,925 1,094 7,339 2013 140,546 135,114 137,230 143,983 150,177 1,742 9,210 2014 144,996 133,464 138,842 144,728 1,260 10,076 2015 147,304 146,610 162,616 8,213 10,826 2016 151,494 157,836 21,557 11,358 2017 170,622 64,261 10,227 Total $ 1,188,023 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 24,134 $ 37,803 $ 44,903 $ 51,280 $ 53,723 $ 53,577 $ 54,080 $ 54,909 $ 55,372 $ 56,094 2009 21,259 34,411 45,757 53,135 56,791 57,641 59,149 60,785 61,202 2010 24,818 45,234 58,139 68,625 73,398 74,513 75,787 76,906 2011 27,454 53,509 71,697 80,004 83,787 84,936 85,845 2012 37,655 60,923 82,066 97,680 109,060 113,909 2013 40,475 76,366 101,725 126,025 139,759 2014 42,097 73,631 99,521 123,649 2015 39,515 74,906 125,514 2016 41,397 84,616 2017 45,477 Total $ 912,971 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of reinsurance 384 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 275,436 (1 Standard Commercial Segment Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, IBNR Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2017 2008 $ 49,452 $ 47,557 $ 46,762 $ 45,556 $ 42,758 $ 41,597 $ 40,387 $ 40,001 $ 39,195 $ 38,294 $ 701 3,256 2009 44,719 45,674 46,772 46,778 45,970 44,159 43,851 43,107 42,168 1,082 2,635 2010 45,263 45,235 44,847 43,164 43,459 42,426 42,175 42,880 1,265 2,914 2011 60,236 56,489 55,156 49,268 47,266 47,423 46,841 2,038 4,370 2012 51,998 52,554 48,222 45,990 44,272 42,986 2,505 3,219 2013 55,482 57,528 56,703 53,174 52,076 4,317 3,920 2014 55,488 55,808 53,568 53,882 5,602 3,555 2015 49,571 49,857 50,053 8,768 3,165 2016 46,880 48,182 11,673 2,779 2017 41,393 18,099 2,330 Total $ 458,755 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 17,182 $ 25,624 $ 29,058 $ 32,523 $ 34,056 $ 34,762 $ 35,360 $ 36,276 $ 36,859 $ 37,002 2009 15,242 28,313 32,075 35,818 38,316 40,389 40,575 40,629 40,835 2010 21,302 28,342 30,957 33,428 37,166 39,115 39,706 40,937 2011 24,899 35,119 38,909 40,301 41,140 42,441 43,680 2012 23,445 32,203 34,789 37,191 38,526 40,408 2013 23,123 36,411 41,809 44,475 46,756 2014 24,255 37,122 41,514 45,779 2015 19,085 34,245 38,302 2016 21,508 32,006 2017 16,755 Total $ 382,460 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of reinsurance 1,824 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 78,119 Personal Segment Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, IBNR Cumulative Number of Reported Claims Unaudited 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2017 2008 $ 36,247 $ 36,976 $ 38,329 $ 39,412 $ 39,793 $ 40,170 $ 40,239 $ 40,324 $ 40,369 $ 40,401 $ - 17,354 2009 40,436 42,092 46,244 47,977 48,930 49,694 49,772 49,891 49,971 - 21,054 2010 63,862 78,294 80,765 84,724 83,903 84,252 84,591 84,808 - 30,180 2011 75,746 77,652 87,810 86,757 86,804 86,948 86,853 - 31,614 2012 58,604 73,795 70,552 71,513 72,042 72,037 - 23,938 2013 55,706 59,132 60,100 60,211 60,379 69 23,468 2014 5,452 5,340 6,243 6,699 239 19,297 2015 23,104 25,682 25,307 642 23,512 2016 32,260 32,893 1,309 24,988 2017 23,342 4,253 17,532 Total $ 482,690 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance Accident Year For the Years Ended December 31, Unaudited 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 $ 20,005 $ 32,555 $ 36,782 $ 38,925 $ 39,511 $ 40,210 $ 40,309 $ 40,323 $ 40,347 $ 40,404 2009 23,306 37,621 44,689 47,967 49,287 49,539 49,704 49,853 49,957 2010 38,643 67,755 75,199 82,624 83,511 84,111 84,556 84,717 2011 46,416 67,939 83,497 85,533 86,217 86,593 86,660 2012 37,860 64,278 68,849 70,807 71,995 72,055 2013 45,901 54,514 58,047 59,775 60,277 2014 2,515 4,418 5,631 6,428 2015 11,570 22,281 24,262 2016 21,669 30,646 2017 15,776 Total $ 471,182 All outstanding liabilities before 2008, net of reinsurance (3) Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 11,505 The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid development tables to the liability for unpaid losses and LAE in our Consolidated Balance Sheets is as follows (in thousands): 2017 2016 Net outstanding liabilities for losses and LAE Specialty Commercial Segment $ 275,436 $ 252,602 Standard Commercial Segment 78,119 82,222 Personal Segment 11,505 15,544 Liabilities for unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 365,060 350,368 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE Specialty Commercial Segment 137,975 102,597 Standard Commercial Segment 6,051 8,540 Personal Segment 10,586 12,100 Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE 154,612 123,237 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses Specialty Commercial Segment 3,377 3,831 Standard Commercial Segment 3,153 3,031 Personal Segment 898 1,100 Total unallocated loss adjustment expenses 7,428 7,962 Total reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 527,100 $ 481,567 C laims Duration The following table provides supplementary unaudited information about the annual percentage payout of incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance, as of December 31, 2017: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (1) Unaudited Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Specialty Commercial Segment 30.5% 23.9% 19.0% 13.1% 6.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1.3% Standard Commercial Segment 45.1% 23.7% 8.1% 6.5% 4.7% 3.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1.7% Personal Segment 52.0% 28.6% 10.8% 5.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% ( (1) The average annual percentage payout is calculated from a paid losses and ALAE development pattern based on an actuarial analysis of the paid losses and ALAE movements by accident year for each disaggregation category. The paid losses and AL A E development pattern provides the expected percentage of ultimate losses and ALAE to be paid in each year. The pattern considers all accident years included in the claims development tables . |