Reserves for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | 6. Reserves for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses: Activity in the consolidated reserves for unpaid losses and LAE is summarized as follows (in thousands): 2019 2018 Balance at January 1 $ 527,247 $ 527,100 Less reinsurance recoverable 221,716 154,612 Net balance at January 1 305,531 372,488 Incurred related to: Current year 301,265 250,075 Prior years 60,900 5,953 Total incurred 362,165 256,028 Paid related to: Current year 127,610 90,640 Prior years 192,335 232,345 Total paid 319,945 322,985 Net balance at December 31 347,751 305,531 Plus reinsurance recoverable 272,604 221,716 Balance at December 31 $ 620,355 $ 527,247 The $60.9 million unfavorable net development and $6.0 million unfavorable net development in prior accident years recognized in 2019 and 2018, respectively, represent changes in our loss reserve estimates. In 2019 and 2018, the aggregate loss reserve estimates for prior years were increased to reflect unfavorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate losses would be more than the previous estimates. The unfavorable prior year reserve development during the twelve months ended December 31, 2019 was primarily driven by the continued emergence of increased frequency and severity trends in our primary commercial auto lines of business within our Commercial Auto business unit, which was representative of industry trends and unfavorable development in our general liability lines with our E&S Casualty business unit. The unfavorable prior year reserve development during the twelve months ended December 31, 2018 was primarily driven by the continued emergence of increased frequency and severity trends in our primary commercial auto lines of business within our Commercial Auto business unit, which was representative of industry trends, partially offset by net favorable development in our general liability lines within our E&S Casualty and Commercial Accounts business units. Generally, changes in reserves are caused by variations between actual experience and previous expectations and by reduced emphasis on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method due to the aging of the accident years. The impact from the unfavorable (favorable) net prior years’ loss development on each reporting segment is presented below: December 31, 2019 2018 Specialty Commercial Segment $ 60,138 $ 16,457 Standard Commercial Segment 726 (8,993) Personal Segment 36 (1,511) Corporate — — Total unfavorable net prior year development $ 60,900 $ 5,953 The following describes the primary factors behind each segment’s prior accident year loss reserve development for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018: Year ended December 31, 2019 : · Specialty Commercial Segment. Our Commercial Auto business unit experienced net unfavorable development in the 2017 and prior accident years primarily in the commercial automobile liability line of business, partially offset by favorable development primarily in the commercial automobile line of business in the 2018 accident year. Our E&S Casualty business unit experienced net unfavorable development primarily in our E&S package insurance products in the 2018 and prior accident years. We experienced net favorable development in our E&S Property and Professional Liability business units, partially offset by net unfavorable development in our Aerospace & Programs business unit. · Standard Commercial Segment. Our Commercial Accounts business operating unit experienced net unfavorable development in the 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2013 and prior accident years primarily in the general liability line of business, partially offset by net favorable development primarily in the commercial property line of business in the 2018 and 2014 accident years and net favorable development primarily in the 2015 accident year in the occupational accident line of business. Our former Workers Compensation operating unit experienced net favorable development primarily in the 2015 accident year. · Personal Segment. Net unfavorable development in our Specialty Personal Lines business unit was mostly attributable to the 2018, 2016, 2014 and 2012 and prior accidents years, partially offset by favorable development in the 2017, 2015 and 2013 accident years. Year ended December 31, 2018 : · Specialty Commercial Segment. Our Commercial Auto business unit experienced net unfavorable development in the 2016 and prior accident years , partially offset by favorable development in the 2017 accident year. Our E&S Casualty business unit experienced net favorable development primarily in our E&S package insurance products. We experienced net unfavorable development in our E&S Property, Professional Liability and Aerospace & Programs business units, · Standard Commercial Segment. Our Commercial Accounts business unit experienced net favorable development in the 2016 and prior accident years primarily in the general liability line of business, partially offset by net unfavorable development primarily in the commercial property line of business in the 2017 accident year and net unfavorable development in the 2017 and prior accident years in the occupational accident line of business. Our former Workers Compensation operating unit experienced net favorable development in the 2016 and prior accident years. · Personal Segment. Net favorable development in our Specialty Personal Lines business unit was mostly attributable to the 2013 through 2017 accident years, partially offset by unfavorable development in the 2012 and prior accident years. In the opinion of management, our reserves represent the best estimate of our ultimate liabilities, based on currently known facts, current law, current technology and assumptions considered reasonable where facts are not known. Due to the significant uncertainties and related management judgments, there can be no assurance that future favorable or unfavorable loss development, which may be material, will not occur. Short-Duration Contract Disclosures ASU 2015‑09, “Disclosures about Short-Duration Contracts (Topic 944)", requires insurers to make disclosures about their liability for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses for short-duration insurance contracts. These disclosures include tables showing incurred and paid claims development information (net of reinsurance and excluding unallocated loss adjustment expenses) which are disaggregated based on the characteristics of the insurance contracts that the insurer writes and other factors specific to the reporting entity. The information should be disclosed by accident year for the number of years claims typically remain outstanding, but need not be more than 10 years, including a reconciliation of the disaggregated information to the consolidated statement of financial position. We have evaluated the disaggregation criteria and concluded that the basis for our disaggregation of this information is the similar claim duration period of our primary lines of business (certain lines of business have short settlement periods versus long settlement periods). Reserves for Incurred But Not Reported (“IBNR”) Claims Reserves for IBNR claims are based on the estimated ultimate cost of settling claims, including the effects of inflation and other social and economic factors, using past experience adjusted for current trends and any other factors that would modify past experience. We use a variety of statistical and actuarial techniques to analyze current claims costs, including frequency and severity data and prevailing economic, social and legal factors. Each such method has its own set of assumptions and outputs, and each has strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Since no single estimation method is superior to another method in all situations, the methods and assumptions used to project loss reserves will vary by coverage and product. We use what we believe to be the most appropriate set of actuarial methods and assumptions for each product line grouping and coverage. While the loss projection methods may vary by product line and coverage, the general approach for calculating IBNR remains the same: ultimate losses are forecasted first, and that amount is reduced by the amount of cumulative paid claims and case reserves. Reserves established in prior years are adjusted as loss experience develops and new information becomes available. Adjustments to previously estimated reserves are reflected in the results of operations in the year in which they are made. As described above, various actuarial methods are utilized to determine the reserves for losses and LAE recorded in our consolidated balance sheets. Weightings of methods at a detailed level may change from evaluation to evaluation based on a number of observations, measures, and time elements. Methodology for Determining Cumulative Number of Reported Claims A claim file is created when the Company is notified of an actual demand for payment, notified of an event that may lead to a demand for payment or it is determined that a demand for payment could possibly lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage on the same policy or on another policy.The cumulative number of reported claims is predominately measured at the claim level for our Commercial Accounts, Aviation, Personal, Primary Commercial Auto Liability, and certain Programs lines of business and at a coverage level by occurrence for our other lines of business. The Company does not generate claim counts for ceded business. Incurred & Paid Claims Development Disclosures The following tables provide information about incurred and cumulative paid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (“ALAE”), net of reinsurance for our primary lines of business with similar claims duration periods. The incurred and paid losses by accident year information presented for all lines of business with similar claim duration periods in the below tables for calendar years prior to 2017 is required supplementary information and is unaudited. The following tables also include IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims and the cumulative number of reported claims as of December 31, 2019 ($ in thousands): Commercial Auto Liability Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ 38,276 $ 44,052 $ 44,597 $ 46,338 $ 46,097 $ 46,557 $ 46,637 $ 46,805 $ 46,944 $ 44,402 $ — 2,656 2011 49,933 52,099 55,934 55,853 55,259 53,587 53,691 55,775 57,499 46 3,328 2012 60,844 69,628 68,225 71,515 73,153 75,464 75,657 76,333 45 4,932 2013 93,692 86,902 90,726 96,974 102,031 103,379 103,571 (417) 6,564 2014 102,053 93,187 99,280 106,138 113,357 116,373 (1,289) 7,308 2015 106,133 106,608 125,161 133,574 135,774 1,093 8,167 2016 111,913 115,044 121,714 137,690 2,352 8,771 2017 125,315 119,583 148,563 12,280 8,586 2018 119,070 118,334 34,175 7,605 2019 118,351 48,275 6,293 Total $ 1,056,890 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 7,476 $ 23,464 $ 32,807 $ 41,298 $ 44,818 $ 45,544 $ 46,487 $ 46,607 $ 46,604 $ 47,125 2011 8,288 27,773 44,227 49,793 52,261 52,928 53,203 53,276 53,275 2012 12,859 30,046 46,510 59,883 69,026 72,907 75,190 75,039 2013 13,333 40,670 63,255 83,184 93,554 101,146 106,894 2014 17,145 43,078 67,410 88,823 107,912 112,617 2015 18,108 48,239 95,056 123,668 141,678 2016 19,788 53,398 106,707 129,761 2017 22,578 77,884 133,880 2018 26,101 49,912 2019 16,812 Total $ 866,994 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 189,896 Casualty Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ 14,928 $ 13,241 $ 11,848 $ 12,413 $ 12,921 $ 12,329 $ 11,830 $ 11,928 $ 11,368 $ 9,600 $ 88 836 2011 14,331 11,675 12,942 12,529 11,855 11,510 11,407 11,265 11,660 144 714 2012 13,020 11,301 13,098 12,230 13,330 12,390 11,852 12,944 (318) 637 2013 13,379 12,002 12,384 12,792 12,874 12,205 13,330 (190) 618 2014 15,590 14,007 12,034 11,663 11,676 13,167 (49) 704 2015 17,362 16,746 15,046 15,266 15,945 247 726 2016 16,039 16,513 16,927 18,625 240 738 2017 17,845 15,751 20,360 2,900 1,123 2018 23,056 24,590 2,930 1,739 2019 34,610 26,946 2,277 Total $ 174,831 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 3,035 $ 5,096 $ 7,175 $ 8,817 $ 10,023 $ 10,407 $ 10,557 $ 10,991 $ 11,138 $ 9,345 2011 2,340 4,292 6,007 8,334 9,292 9,642 9,868 11,149 11,204 2012 1,337 2,666 6,096 8,037 10,255 10,938 11,357 12,572 2013 1,331 3,190 5,461 9,212 11,134 11,866 12,255 2014 1,829 4,196 5,499 8,075 11,327 12,365 2015 1,420 4,133 8,258 13,553 16,158 2016 1,753 5,672 11,269 16,442 2017 2,900 5,884 11,268 2018 2,708 8,027 2019 2,526 Total $ 112,163 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance 860 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 63,528 Commercial Accounts Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ 45,263 $ 45,235 $ 44,847 $ 43,164 $ 43,459 $ 42,426 $ 42,175 $ 42,880 $ 42,427 $ 40,337 $ 106 3,143 2011 49,375 46,540 45,723 41,721 41,081 40,745 40,100 38,585 38,585 199 2,911 2012 47,194 48,085 44,625 42,632 41,451 40,350 38,669 38,669 198 2,703 2013 46,413 47,385 46,990 43,917 42,822 39,567 40,211 423 2,800 2014 46,280 46,470 43,806 43,806 43,673 42,463 562 2,737 2015 40,966 42,580 41,429 38,385 39,287 1,440 2,568 2016 43,327 43,449 41,983 43,111 1,518 2,526 2017 40,943 42,704 43,579 2,793 2,709 2018 42,898 41,290 5,929 2,550 2019 37,984 13,663 2,459 Total $ 405,517 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 21,304 $ 28,342 $ 30,957 $ 33,428 $ 37,166 $ 39,115 $ 39,706 $ 40,937 $ 42,063 $ 40,040 2011 22,002 30,811 33,701 35,333 36,302 37,214 38,253 38,311 38,228 2012 22,264 30,096 32,378 34,597 35,943 37,808 38,044 38,211 2013 19,386 29,586 33,927 36,225 37,947 38,892 39,329 2014 21,322 31,150 33,544 36,775 39,185 41,162 2015 16,557 28,501 30,974 35,238 35,611 2016 19,776 29,456 35,035 39,417 2017 16,644 28,813 36,650 2018 19,233 29,381 2019 17,490 Total $ 355,519 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance 1,202 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 51,200 Aviation Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ 11,331 $ 10,960 $ 9,570 $ 9,186 $ 9,316 $ 9,432 $ 9,489 $ 9,820 $ 9,839 $ 9,839 $ — 269 2011 12,330 11,299 9,759 9,729 9,829 9,884 10,045 10,028 10,028 — 305 2012 10,988 10,738 10,353 10,336 10,024 10,021 9,941 9,941 — 229 2013 10,236 11,304 10,295 9,563 10,057 10,649 10,252 — 231 2014 3,179 3,654 3,627 3,558 3,566 3,567 — 201 2015 1,870 1,709 1,643 1,631 1,630 — 197 2016 2,330 2,241 2,119 2,219 33 292 2017 2,325 2,082 2,079 26 319 2018 2,382 1,990 143 332 2019 5,246 836 265 Total $ 56,791 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 5,613 $ 7,041 $ 8,635 $ 9,031 $ 9,083 $ 9,083 $ 9,245 $ 9,811 $ 9,836 $ 9,618 2011 6,313 8,894 8,924 9,311 9,546 9,628 10,028 10,028 10,028 2012 5,641 8,486 9,672 10,049 10,041 10,041 10,041 9,941 2013 6,537 9,493 9,584 9,356 9,944 10,456 10,242 2014 2,779 3,105 3,259 3,327 3,565 3,567 2015 958 1,405 1,520 1,601 1,630 2016 1,469 1,907 1,918 2,082 2017 1,260 1,837 2,021 2018 1,716 2,237 2019 2,911 Total $ 54,277 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 2,514 Runoff Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — — 2011 10,861 9,949 9,433 7,547 6,185 6,678 6,741 6,659 6,637 287 965 2012 4,804 4,469 3,597 3,358 2,821 2,636 2,752 2,752 70 661 2013 9,069 10,143 9,713 9,257 9,257 9,472 9,486 165 711 2014 9,208 9,338 9,762 10,076 10,452 10,463 460 1,130 2015 8,605 7,277 8,624 8,892 8,420 182 822 2016 3,553 4,733 4,365 4,416 29 599 2017 450 465 415 72 439 2018 — — — 66 2019 — — — Total $ 42,590 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — 2011 2,897 4,308 5,208 4,968 4,838 5,227 5,427 5,483 5,357 2012 1,181 2,107 2,411 2,594 2,583 2,600 2,602 2,675 2013 3,737 6,825 7,882 8,350 8,809 8,961 9,010 2014 2,933 5,972 7,970 9,004 9,210 9,323 2015 2,528 5,744 7,328 8,049 8,495 2016 1,732 2,550 3,743 4,418 2017 111 171 203 2018 — 2019 Total $ 39,481 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 3,109 Programs Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ - $ — — 2011 317 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 — — 2012 3,001 2,045 2,045 3,885 2,045 2,045 2,045 2,045 — 3 2013 1,595 2,543 1,561 2,076 2,302 2,302 2,302 — 2 2014 1,623 666 2,039 1,575 1,575 1,575 — 5 2015 1,683 1,629 752 752 752 — 2 2016 478 1,200 1,178 1,178 — 1 2017 955 1,775 1,801 55 23 2018 3,598 4,368 440 88 2019 5,407 1,481 56 Total $ 19,624 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — 2011 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 2012 2,045 2,045 2,045 2,045 2,045 2,045 2,045 2,045 2013 1,489 1,561 1,561 2,076 2,302 2,302 2,302 2014 758 1,502 1,575 1,575 1,575 1,575 2015 1,515 1,629 752 752 752 2016 1,139 1,139 1,178 1,178 2017 36 1,556 1,551 2018 911 1,290 2019 4,501 Total $ 15,390 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 4,234 Personal Segment Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ 63,862 $ 78,294 $ 80,765 $ 84,724 $ 83,903 $ 84,252 $ 84,591 $ 84,808 $ 84,867 $ 84,867 $ 32 30,180 2011 75,746 77,652 87,810 86,757 86,804 86,948 86,853 87,199 87,198 — 31,615 2012 58,604 73,795 70,552 71,513 72,042 72,037 72,076 72,100 — 23,940 2013 55,706 59,132 60,100 60,211 60,379 60,328 60,310 — 23,472 2014 5,452 5,340 6,243 6,699 6,504 6,518 — 19,293 2015 23,104 25,682 25,307 25,136 25,102 — 23,376 2016 32,260 32,893 32,728 32,803 27 23,752 2017 23,342 21,968 21,926 13 16,796 2018 18,334 18,353 (191) 15,268 2019 56,009 619 24,221 Total $ 465,186 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 38,643 $ 67,755 $ 75,199 $ 82,624 $ 83,511 $ 84,111 $ 84,556 $ 84,717 $ 84,768 $ 84,782 2011 46,416 67,939 83,497 85,533 86,217 86,593 86,660 86,989 87,045 2012 37,860 64,278 68,849 70,807 71,995 72,055 72,094 72,124 2013 45,901 54,514 58,047 59,775 60,277 60,297 60,279 2014 2,515 4,418 5,631 6,428 6,566 6,580 2015 11,570 22,281 24,262 25,243 25,098 2016 21,669 30,646 32,260 32,777 2017 15,776 21,061 21,972 2018 11,137 18,009 2019 41,524 Total $ 450,190 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance 31 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 15,027 Property Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Reported Accident Unaudited IBNR Claims Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 2010 $ 9,652 $ 9,836 $ 9,680 $ 9,656 $ 9,668 $ 9,654 $ 9,675 $ 9,700 $ 9,496 $ 9,501 $ — 1,316 2011 11,768 12,289 12,228 12,406 12,598 12,616 12,494 12,551 12,549 — 1,512 2012 18,518 17,541 18,119 17,743 17,768 18,005 17,974 17,963 — 1,629 2013 21,644 22,363 22,264 22,578 22,914 22,936 22,935 — 1,893 2014 22,551 21,950 21,862 21,793 21,852 21,876 (20) 2,037 2015 20,256 19,919 20,014 20,091 20,202 5 1,993 2016 20,734 22,838 22,632 22,789 (0) 2,029 2017 24,182 23,003 24,490 10 2,006 2018 22,822 18,694 (649) 1,052 2019 20,214 4,640 997 Total $ 191,214 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 $ 8,692 $ 9,632 $ 9,522 $ 9,479 $ 9,474 $ 9,479 $ 9,498 $ 9,496 $ 9,496 $ 9,501 2011 10,317 12,354 12,343 12,370 12,492 12,541 12,550 12,551 12,549 2012 15,773 17,679 17,743 17,666 17,693 17,978 17,974 17,963 2013 17,785 21,452 21,864 22,197 22,826 22,936 22,935 2014 19,586 21,749 21,778 21,849 21,911 21,955 2015 17,513 19,500 19,928 20,134 19,953 2016 17,248 22,500 22,613 22,789 2017 18,703 22,059 23,821 2018 10,923 16,914 2019 11,344 Total $ 179,725 All outstanding liabilities before 2010, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 11,489 The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid development tables to the liability for unpaid losses and LAE in our consolidated balance sheets is as follows (in thousands): 2019 2018 Net outstanding liabilities for losses and LAE Commercial Auto Liability $ 189,896 $ 150,288 Casualty 63,528 61,014 Commercial Accounts 51,200 56,865 Aviation 2,514 2,185 Runoff 3,109 5,070 Programs 4,234 2,164 Personal Segment 15,027 8,743 Property 11,489 12,739 Liabilities for unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 340,997 299,068 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE Commercial Auto Liability 112,931 23,262 Casualty 91,900 139,928 Commercial Accounts 13,671 8,255 Aviation 9,469 9,114 Runoff 1,326 1,528 Programs 3,618 421 Personal Segment 11,752 13,131 Property 27,937 26,077 Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE 272,604 221,716 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses Commercial Auto Liability 1,383 1,264 Casualty 760 707 Commercial Accounts 2,732 2,788 Aviation 85 383 Runoff 170 170 Programs 63 31 Personal Segment 1,250 955 Property 311 165 Total unallocated loss adjustment expenses 6,754 6,463 Total reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 620,355 $ 527,247 Claims Duration The following table provides supplementary unaudited information about the annual percentage payout of incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance, as of December 31, 2019: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (1) Unaudited Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Commercial Auto Liability 14.5 % 25.6 % 26.3 % 16.3 % 10.0 % 3.6 % 2.6 % 0.1 % — % 1.0 % Casualty 12.4 % 15.8 % 19.9 % 21.3 % 14.3 % 4.7 % 2.2 % 7.6 % 0.8 % 1.0 % Commercial Accounts 36.8 % 16.8 % 5.8 % 6.3 % 5.8 % 7.0 % 5.7 % 2.8 % 6.9 % 6.1 % Aviation 63.5 % 22.7 % 6.2 % 3.3 % 2.8 % 1.5 % 0.5 % 1.6 % 0.1 % (2.2) % Runoff 31.9 % 37.8 % 17.6 % 6.9 % 4.2 % 1.4 % 1.5 % (1.3) % — % — % Programs 73.2 % 20.3 % 6.5 % — % — % — % — % — % — % — % Personal Segment 56.0 % 28.8 % 8.9 % 4.7 % 0.9 % 0.3 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % — % Property 77.2 % 15.8 % 1.7 % 0.5 % 3.6 % 1.2 % — % — % — % — % (1) The average annual percentage payout is calculated from a paid losses and ALAE development pattern based on an actuarial analysis of the paid losses and ALAE movements by accident year for each disaggregation category. The paid losses and ALAE development pattern provides the expected percentage of ultimate losses and ALAE to be paid in each year. The pattern considers all accident years included in the claims development tables. |