Reserves for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses | 6. Reserves for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses: Activity in the consolidated reserves for unpaid losses and LAE is summarized as follows (in thousands): 2022 2021 Balance at January 1 $ 816,681 $ 789,768 Less reinsurance recoverable 387,915 357,200 Net balance at January 1 428,766 432,568 Incurred related to: Current year - continuing operations 117,644 151,603 Prior years - continuing operations 91,526 1,559 Continuing operations 209,170 153,162 Current year - discontinued operations 93,562 117,600 Prior years - discontinued operations 20,767 4,482 Discontinued operations 114,329 122,082 Total incurred from continuing and discontinued operations 323,499 275,244 Paid related to: Current year - continuing operations 63,119 77,916 Prior years - continuing operations 121,599 109,211 Continuing operations 184,718 187,127 Current year - discontinued operations 21,521 14,394 Prior years - discontinued operations 85,850 77,525 Discontinued operations 107,371 91,919 Total paid from continuing and discontinued operations 292,089 279,046 Net balance at December 31 460,176 428,766 Plus reinsurance recoverable 420,693 387,915 Balance at December 31 $ 880,869 $ 816,681 The $112.3 million and $6.0 million of unfavorable net development for both continuing and discontinued operations in prior accident years recognized in 2022 and 2021, respectively, represent changes in our loss reserve estimates. In 2022 and 2021, the aggregate loss reserve estimates for prior years were increased to reflect unfavorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate losses would be more than the previous estimates. The unfavorable prior year reserve development during the twelve months ended December 31, 2022 was primarily driven by our binding commercial automobile liability line of business reported in our continuing operations as part of our Runoff Segment, our E&S Casualty business unit now reported in our discontinued operations and our personal automobile liability line in our Specialty Personal Lines business unit reported in our continuing operations as part of our Personal Lines Segment. The unfavorable prior year reserve development during the twelve months ended December 31, 2021 was primarily driven by our general liability lines within our E&S Casualty business unit now reported in our discontinued operations and our Commercial Lines Segment reported as part of our continuing operations, as well as our personal automobile liability line in our Specialty Personal Lines business unit reported in our continuing operations. Generally, changes in reserves are caused by variations between actual experience and previous expectations and by reduced emphasis on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method due to the aging of the accident years. The impact from the unfavorable (favorable) net prior years’ loss development on each reporting segment is presented below: December 31, 2022 2021 Commercial Lines Segment $ (268) $ (1,459) Personal Lines Segment 6,559 4,891 Runoff Segment 85,235 (1,873) Corporate — — Total unfavorable net prior year development $ 91,526 $ 1,559 The following describes the primary factors behind each segment’s prior accident year loss reserve development for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021: Year ended December 31, 2022 : ● Commercial Lines Segment. Our Commercial Accounts business unit experienced net unfavorable development in the general liability line of business primarily in the 2021 and prior accident years and the commercial auto line of business in the 2020 and prior accident years, partially offset by net favorable development in the property line of business primarily in accident years 2021. Our Aviation business unit experienced net favorable development in the 2021 accident year, partially offset by net unfavorable development in the 2020 and 2019 accident years. The run-off from our former Workers Compensation operating unit experienced net unfavorable development in the 2015 and prior accident years . ● Personal Lines Segment. Net unfavorable development in our Specialty Personal Lines business unit was driven predominately by unfavorable development attributable to the 2021 and 2020 accident years due in part to rising inflationary trends, specifically loss costs, that the industry began experiencing in 2021. ● Runoff Segment. Our binding commercial automobile liability line of business experienced net unfavorable development in the 2020 and prior accident years due in part to exceeding the aggregate limit of the loss portfolio transfer agreement covering accident years 2019 and prior entered into during 2020. We experienced net unfavorable development in our senior care facilities and satellite launch business, as well a commercial automobile liability program. Year ended December 31, 2021 : ● Commercial Lines Segment. Our Commercial Accounts business unit experienced net favorable development for all lines of business in total, primarily due to net favorable development in our commercial auto liability and property lines of business in accident years 2020, 2016 and 2015, partially offset by net unfavorable development in the general liability lines of business in accident years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2014 and prior accident years. We experienced net unfavorable development in our Aviation business unit. The run-off from our former Workers Compensation operating unit experienced net favorable development in the 2015 and prior accident years . ● Personal Lines Segment. Net unfavorable development in our Specialty Personal Lines business unit was driven predominately by unfavorable development attributable to the 2020 and 2019 accident years. ● Runoff Segment. We experienced net favorable development in our binding commercial automobile line of business in the 2018 and prior accident years, as well as in our senior care facilities line of business. We experienced net unfavorable development in our satellite launch business and specialty programs. Reserves for unpaid losses and LAE represent management’s best estimate of our ultimate liabilities, based on currently known facts, current law, current technology and assumptions considered reasonable where facts are not known. Due to the significant uncertainties and related management judgments, there can be no assurance that future favorable or unfavorable loss development, which may be material, will not occur. Short-Duration Contract Disclosures ASU 2015-09, “Disclosures about Short-Duration Contracts (Topic 944)", requires insurers to make disclosures about their liability for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses for short-duration insurance contracts. These disclosures include tables showing incurred and paid claims development information (net of reinsurance and excluding unallocated loss adjustment expenses) which are disaggregated based on the characteristics of the insurance contracts that the insurer writes and other factors specific to the reporting entity. The information should be disclosed by accident year for the number of years claims typically remain outstanding, but need not be more than 10 years, including a reconciliation of the disaggregated information to the consolidated statement of financial position. We have evaluated the disaggregation criteria and concluded that the basis for our disaggregation of this information is the similar claim duration period of our primary lines of business (certain lines of business have short settlement periods versus long settlement periods). Reserves for Incurred But Not Reported (“IBNR”) Claims Reserves for IBNR claims are based on the estimated ultimate cost of settling claims, including the effects of inflation and other social and economic factors, using past experience adjusted for current trends and any other factors that would modify past experience. We use a variety of statistical and actuarial techniques to analyze current claims costs, including frequency and severity data and prevailing economic, social and legal factors. Each such method has its own set of assumptions and outputs, and each has strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Since no single estimation method is superior to another method in all situations, the methods and assumptions used to project loss reserves will vary by coverage and product. We use what we believe to be the most appropriate set of actuarial methods and assumptions for each product line grouping and coverage. While the loss projection methods may vary by product line and coverage, the general approach for calculating IBNR remains the same: ultimate losses are forecasted first, and that amount is reduced by the amount of cumulative paid claims and case reserves. Reserves established in prior years are adjusted as loss experience develops and new information becomes available. Adjustments to previously estimated reserves are reflected in the results of operations in the year in which they are made. As described above, various actuarial methods are utilized to determine the reserves for losses and LAE recorded in our consolidated balance sheets. Weightings of methods at a detailed level may change from evaluation to evaluation based on a number of observations, measures, and time elements. Methodology for Determining Cumulative Number of Reported Claims A claim file is created when the Company is notified of an actual demand for payment, notified of an event that may lead to a demand for payment or it is determined that a demand for payment could possibly lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage on the same policy or on another policy. The cumulative number of reported claims is predominately measured at the claim level for our Commercial Accounts, Aviation, Personal, Primary Commercial Auto Liability, and certain Programs lines of business and at a coverage level by occurrence for our other lines of business. The Company does not generate claim counts for ceded business. Incurred & Paid Claims Development Disclosures The following tables provide information about incurred and cumulative paid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (“ALAE”), net of reinsurance for our primary lines of business with similar claims duration periods. The incurred and paid losses by accident year information is presented for all lines of business with similar claim duration periods in the below tables. The following tables also include IBNR reserves plus expected development on reported claims and the cumulative number of reported claims as of December 31, 2022 ($ in thousands): Commercial Accounts Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Audited Reported Accident Unaudited Audited IBNR Claims Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2013 $ 47,194 $ 48,085 $ 44,625 $ 42,632 $ 41,451 $ 40,350 $ 40,211 $ 40,141 $ 40,562 $ 40,795 $ 307 2,812 2014 46,413 47,385 46,990 43,917 42,822 42,463 42,503 42,645 42,870 474 2,744 2015 46,280 46,470 43,806 43,806 39,287 39,206 38,677 39,417 962 2,582 2016 40,966 42,580 41,429 43,111 45,267 43,883 44,566 1,224 2,550 2017 43,327 43,449 43,579 44,732 45,815 46,617 2,147 2,751 2018 40,943 41,290 44,590 47,007 46,256 3,143 2,619 2019 37,984 34,616 36,044 39,298 2,517 2,778 2020 40,356 35,879 34,197 2,943 2,836 2021 46,529 43,347 9,266 2,862 2022 45,883 18,674 2,149 Total $ 423,246 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Audited Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 $ 22,264 $ 30,096 $ 32,378 $ 34,597 $ 35,943 $ 37,808 $ 39,329 $ 39,560 $ 40,210 $ 40,278 2014 19,386 29,586 33,927 36,225 37,947 41,162 41,658 41,863 42,030 2015 21,322 31,150 33,544 36,775 35,611 37,135 37,886 38,303 2016 16,557 28,501 30,974 39,417 40,828 42,819 43,101 2017 19,776 29,456 36,650 41,631 42,707 44,381 2018 16,664 29,381 33,546 40,163 42,794 2019 17,490 26,233 30,407 33,914 2020 13,942 23,914 26,881 2021 18,695 29,230 2022 17,072 Total $ 357,984 All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance 1,446 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 66,708 Aviation Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Audited Reported Accident Unaudited Audited IBNR Claims Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2013 $ 10,236 $ 11,304 $ 10,295 $ 9,563 $ 10,057 $ 10,649 $ 10,252 $ 10,507 $ 10,293 $ 10,278 $ — 231 2014 3,179 3,654 3,627 3,558 3,566 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,568 — 201 2015 1,870 1,709 1,643 1,631 1,630 1,635 1,639 1,638 — 200 2016 2,330 2,241 2,119 2,219 2,183 2,216 2,215 — 292 2017 2,325 2,082 2,079 2,117 2,183 2,182 — 320 2018 2,382 1,990 2,296 2,577 2,611 14 338 2019 5,246 2,206 4,592 4,806 29 312 2020 1,104 3,318 3,365 108 294 2021 3,562 2,690 302 211 2022 3,617 1,728 155 Total $ 36,970 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Audited Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 $ 6,537 $ 9,493 $ 9,584 $ 9,356 $ 9,944 $ 10,456 $ 10,242 $ 10,281 $ 10,278 $ 10,278 2014 2,779 3,105 3,259 3,327 3,565 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,568 2015 958 1,405 1,520 1,601 1,630 1,634 1,636 1,636 2016 1,469 1,907 1,918 2,082 2,216 2,216 2,215 2017 1,260 1,837 2,021 2,054 2,182 2,180 2018 1,716 2,237 2,368 2,412 2,548 2019 2,774 3,787 4,151 4,416 2020 2,120 2,813 2,943 2021 1,414 1,968 2022 1,302 Total $ 33,054 All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 3,916 Personal Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Audited Reported Accident Unaudited Audited IBNR Claims Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2013 $ 55,706 $ 59,132 $ 60,100 $ 60,211 $ 60,379 $ 60,328 $ 60,310 $ 60,286 $ 60,299 $ 60,305 $ — 23,472 2014 5,452 5,340 6,243 6,699 6,504 6,518 6,578 6,580 6,582 — 19,293 2015 23,104 25,682 25,307 25,136 25,102 25,185 25,194 25,210 — 23,376 2016 32,260 32,893 32,728 32,803 33,042 33,193 33,271 — 23,759 2017 23,342 21,968 21,926 22,547 22,768 22,770 — 16,820 2018 18,334 18,353 19,972 20,139 20,220 13 15,337 2019 56,009 63,722 64,677 65,494 (288) 25,751 2020 47,938 50,820 51,750 530 18,535 2021 45,295 49,851 540 15,795 2022 45,552 10,299 14,651 Total $ 381,005 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Audited Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 $ 45,901 $ 54,514 $ 58,047 $ 59,775 $ 60,277 $ 60,297 $ 60,279 $ 60,279 $ 60,291 $ 60,302 2014 2,515 4,418 5,631 6,428 6,566 6,580 6,583 6,585 6,585 2015 11,570 22,281 24,262 25,243 25,098 25,169 25,191 25,211 2016 21,669 30,646 32,260 32,777 32,991 33,141 33,231 2017 15,776 21,061 21,972 22,488 22,762 22,776 2018 11,137 18,009 19,628 19,983 20,133 2019 41,524 60,870 64,885 65,628 2020 32,746 48,281 50,841 2021 30,435 46,707 2022 27,743 Total $ 359,157 All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance — Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 21,848 Runoff and Discontinued Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance As of December 31, Cumulative Number of For the Years Ended December 31, Audited Reported Accident Unaudited Audited IBNR Claims Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2013 $ 133,308 $ 131,174 $ 133,845 $ 142,174 $ 144,604 $ 145,545 $ 150,927 $ 153,426 $ 153,479 $ 155,365 $ 337 10,457 2014 145,566 137,889 143,821 153,753 160,720 163,523 167,409 167,224 169,142 45 11,108 2015 151,185 145,913 164,093 173,980 181,088 187,498 188,674 191,804 1,359 11,752 2016 154,909 161,614 166,798 184,115 186,805 185,696 186,239 20 12,066 2017 179,495 159,000 178,850 199,567 228,885 245,127 1,031 12,091 2018 170,636 163,446 157,776 212,651 232,979 1,209 11,593 2019 176,760 178,072 189,509 226,125 12,028 12,204 2020 207,793 199,806 226,275 27,008 16,186 2021 130,322 132,133 28,476 13,686 2022 84,493 57,852 4,728 Total $ 1,849,682 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance For the Years Ended December 31, Accident Unaudited Audited Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 $ 36,791 $ 72,326 $ 98,497 $ 123,429 $ 133,999 $ 143,294 $ 149,477 $ 151,959 $ 152,471 $ 153,384 2014 42,031 76,202 103,962 131,463 154,686 165,114 166,772 167,298 167,691 2015 40,656 74,733 124,963 161,942 171,226 175,438 180,441 182,952 2016 42,653 86,836 138,231 167,310 179,266 180,605 181,150 2017 45,288 111,296 160,742 188,053 201,100 203,169 2018 95,327 132,424 174,348 189,161 214,460 2019 75,698 115,879 140,058 188,010 2020 39,844 91,963 144,064 2021 22,729 52,082 2022 10,582 Total $ 1,497,543 All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance 5,240 Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance $ 357,379 The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid development tables to the liability for unpaid losses and LAE in our consolidated balance sheets is as follows (in thousands): 2022 2021 Net outstanding liabilities for losses and LAE Commercial Accounts $ 66,708 $ 60,511 Aviation 3,916 3,276 Personal 21,848 17,393 Runoff and Discontinued 357,379 336,877 Liabilities for unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance 449,851 418,057 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE Commercial Accounts 35,585 27,464 Aviation 14,346 13,385 Personal 624 1,707 Runoff and Discontinued 370,139 345,359 Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses and LAE 420,694 387,915 Unallocated loss adjustment expenses Commercial Accounts 1,955 2,448 Aviation 27 99 Personal 1,885 1,625 Runoff and Discontinued 6,457 6,537 Total unallocated loss adjustment expenses 10,324 10,709 Total reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 880,869 $ 816,681 Claims Duration The following table provides supplementary unaudited information about the annual percentage payout of incurred losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance, as of December 31, 2022: Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (1) Unaudited Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Commercial Accounts 43.6 % 25.5 % 10.5 % 9.1 % 4.9 % 2.6 % 1.9 % 1.0 % 0.7 % 0.2 % Aviation 64.2 % 21.6 % 5.2 % 4.7 % 3.0 % 1.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % — % — % Personal 60.6 % 27.2 % 7.5 % 3.6 % 0.8 % 0.2 % 0.1 % — % — % — % Runoff and Discontinued 26.9 % 22.3 % 20.9 % 14.2 % 8.5 % 3.4 % 1.7 % 1.1 % 0.6 % 0.4 % (1) The average annual percentage payout is calculated from a paid losses and ALAE development pattern based on an actuarial analysis of the paid losses and ALAE movements by accident year for each disaggregation category. The paid losses and ALAE development pattern provides the expected percentage of ultimate losses and ALAE to be paid in each year. The pattern considers all accident years included in the claims development tables. |