Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Bank of Montreal’s public communications often include written or oral forward-looking statements. Statements of this type are included in this document, and may be included in other filings with Canadian securities regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or in other communications. All such statements are made pursuant to the “safe harbor” provisions of, and are intended to be forward-looking statements under, the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and any applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements in this document may include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to our objectives and priorities for fiscal 2019 and beyond, our strategies or future actions, our targets, expectations for our financial condition or share price, the regulatory environment in which we operate and the results of or outlook for our operations or for the Canadian, U.S. and international economies, and include statements of our management. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “will”, “would”, “should”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “intend”, “estimate”, “plan”, “goal”, “target”, “may” and “could”.
By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific in nature. There is significant risk that predictions, forecasts, conclusions or projections will not prove to be accurate, that our assumptions may not be correct, and that actual results may differ materially from such predictions, forecasts, conclusions or projections. We caution readers of this document not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, as a number of factors – many of which are beyond our control and the effects of which can be difficult to predict – could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed in the forward-looking statements.
The future outcomes that relate to forward-looking statements may be influenced by many factors, including but not limited to: general economic and market conditions in the countries in which we operate; the Canadian housing market; weak, volatile or illiquid capital and/or credit markets; interest rate and currency value fluctuations; changes in monetary, fiscal, or economic policy and tax legislation and interpretation; the level of competition in the geographic and business areas in which we operate; changes in laws or in supervisory expectations or requirements, including capital, interest rate and liquidity requirements and guidance, and the effect of such changes on funding costs; judicial or regulatory proceedings; the accuracy and completeness of the information we obtain with respect to our customers and counterparties; failure of third parties to comply with their obligations to us; our ability to execute our strategic plans and to complete and integrate acquisitions, including obtaining regulatory approvals; critical accounting estimates and the effect of changes to accounting standards, rules and interpretations on these estimates; operational and infrastructure risks, including with respect to reliance on third parties; changes to our credit ratings; political conditions, including changes relating to or affecting economic or trade matters; global capital markets activities; the possible effects on our business of war or terrorist activities; outbreaks of disease or illness that affect local, national or international economies; natural disasters and disruptions to public infrastructure, such as transportation, communications, power or water supply; technological changes; information and cyber security, including the threat of hacking, identity theft and corporate espionage, as well as the possibility of denial of service resulting from efforts targeted at causing system failure and service disruption; and our ability to anticipate and effectively manage risks arising from all of the foregoing factors.
We caution that the foregoing list is not exhaustive of all possible factors. Other factors and risks could adversely affect our results. For more information, please see the discussion in the Risks That May Affect Future Results section on page 79 of BMO’s 2018 Annual Report, and the sections related to credit and counterparty, market, insurance, liquidity and funding, operational, model, legal and regulatory, business, strategic, environmental and social, and reputation risk, in the Enterprise-Wide Risk Management section on page 78 of BMO’s 2018 Annual Report, and the Risk Management section on page 25 in this document, all of which outline certain key factors and risks that may affect our future results. Investors and others should carefully consider these factors and risks, as well as other uncertainties and potential events, and the inherent uncertainty of forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by the organization or on its behalf, except as required by law. The forward-looking information contained in this document is presented for the purpose of assisting our shareholders in understanding our financial position as at and for the periods ended on the dates presented, as well as our strategic priorities and objectives, and may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Material economic assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements contained in this document are set out in the 2018 Annual Report under the heading “Economic Developments and Outlook”, as updated by the Economic Review and Outlook section set forth in this document. Assumptions about the performance of the Canadian and U.S. economies, as well as overall market conditions and their combined effect on our business, are material factors we consider when determining our strategic priorities, objectives and expectations for our business. In determining our expectations for economic growth, both broadly and in the financial services sector, we primarily consider historical economic data provided by governments, historical relationships between economic and financial variables, and the risks to the domestic and global economy. See the following Economic Review and Outlook section.
Economic Review and Outlook
Canada’s economy has slowed in response to higher interest rates and stricter policy measures designed to restrain the housing market and household credit expansion. Real GDP is expected to increase 1.8% in 2019, down from an estimated 2.0% in 2018. This moderate pace will likely keep the unemployment rate close to four-decade lows averaging 5.7% in the year. The rate of personal consumption growth is projected to moderate to 1.6% in 2019 from an estimated 2.2% last year amid the slowest household credit growth since 1983. Industry-wide consumer credit is anticipated to increase 2.9% this year, while residential mortgage demand should expand 3.0%. The rate of business investment is projected to slow to around 2% in response to higher interest rates and the recent decline in oil prices, resulting in some moderation in industry-wide business loan growth to 5.6% from an estimated 6.3% last year. Despite support from a continuedlow-valued Canadian dollar, exports are likely to moderate in response to a slowing global economy. The Bank of Canada is expected to increase its main policy rate by 25 basis points in 2019, which could mark the end of the current tightening cycle. Restrained inflation should allow longer-term interest rates to remain relatively low. The economy faces risks related to oil prices and global trade policies. The possibility that the new North American trade deal (USMCA) will not be ratified by the legislatures of the three nations is a downside risk to the economic outlook.
The U.S. economy remains healthy, but is moderating in response to less supportive fiscal and monetary policies. Real GDP is expected to expand 2.4% in 2019, down from an estimated 2.9% in 2018. The earlier partial shutdown of the federal government will depress activity in the first quarter. Still, the labour market remains healthy and the unemployment rate should decline to 3.5% byyear-end, marking the second lowest level since 1953. Supported by higher incomes, consumer spending is expected to increase 2.7% in 2019, encouraging industry-wide consumer credit growth of 3.4%. In response to weaker housing market activity, residential mortgage demand will likely increase a moderate 3.8% in 2019. The rate of business investment should slow to around 3% in 2019 from more than 6% in 2018 due to diminished support from tax reforms, resulting in more moderate industry-wide business credit growth of 5.9%. Exports are likely to weaken in response to a strong U.S. dollar, slower global demand and retaliatory tariffs. The Federal Reserve is projected to raise its main policy rate by only 25 basis points this year. The main risks to the economic outlook relate to a possible increase in trade protectionism and U.S. political instability. While the imposed tariffs to date are estimated to slow the economy only modestly, further restrictive trade policies could lead to an increase in joblessness.
The rate of economic expansion in the U.S. Midwest region, which includes the six contiguous states within the BMO footprint, is expected to moderate to 1.9% in 2019 from an estimated 2.1% in 2018 in response to less supportive financial conditions, slower automotive production and weaker exports.
Uncertainty related to Brexit is unlikely to have a material adverse impact on the North American economy.
This Economic Review and Outlook section contains forward-looking statements. Please see the Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements.
6 BMO Financial Group First Quarter Report 2019