SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q Quarterly Report Under Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For Quarter Ended March 31, 1996 Commission File Number 0-16882 THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. 	 (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Massachusetts 04-2599931 		 (State or other (IRS Employer jurisdiction Identification of Incorporation) No.) 211 Main Street Webster, Massachusetts 01570 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code) Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (508) 943-9000 Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes X No___ As of May 1, 1996, the number of shares outstanding of the registrant's common stock (excluding Treasury Shares) was 36,356,252. Page 1 of 13 The Commerce Group, Inc. Table of Contents 											 			Page No. Part I - Financial Information Consolidated Balance Sheets at March 31, 1996 (Unaudited) and December 31, 1995 ..........................................................	 3 Consolidated Statements of Earnings for the Three Months Ended March 31, 1996 and 1995 (Unaudited)................................................	 4 Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows for the Three Months Ended March 31, 1996 and 1995(Unaudited).................................................	 5 Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements.............................................................	 6 Management's Discussion and Analysis..................................................................... ...............	 7 Part II - Other Information Item 6 Exhibits and Reports on Form 8- K............................................................................ ..........	13 Signature................................................................ ................................................................	13 - - 2 - THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (Thousands of Dollars) March 31, December 31, 1996 1995 (Unaudited) ASSETS Investments: Fixed maturities, at market (cost: $845,765 in 1996 and $801,308 in 1995)....................... $ 843,749 $ 815,277 Equity securities, at market (cost: $178,224 in 1996 and $140,157 in 1995)...................... 188,181 151,579 Mortgage loans on real estate (less allowance for possible loan losses of $2,524 in 1996 and $2,660 in 1995)................................................................................ 74,418 73,783 Collateral notes receivable (less allowance of $513 in 1996 and 1995)............................ 1,711 1,826 Investments in real estate....................................................................... - 348	 Total investments............................................................................ 1,108,059 1,042,813 Cash and cash equivalents.......................................................................... 27,803 75,906 Accrued investment income.......................................................................... 14,763 14,633 Premiums receivable (less allowance for doubtful receivables of $1,102 in 1996 and $1,103 in 1995). 187,648 127,243 Deferred policy acquisition costs.................................................................. 87,156 67,160 Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation............................................ 30,855 30,981 Residual market receivable......................................................................... 193,720 200,124 Due from reinsurers................................................................................ 20,221 21,897 Deferred income taxes.............................................................................. 10,272 1,415	 Goodwill........................................................................................... 1,338 1,374	 Total assets................................................................................. $1,681,835 $1,583,546	 LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY Liabilities Losses and loss adjustment expenses.............................................................. $ 633,494 $ 618,791 Unearned premiums................................................................................ 415,901 330,454 Current income taxes............................................................................. 5,369 1,180 Deferred income.................................................................................. 9,186 8,954 Contingent commissions accrued................................................................... 30,511 32,550 Other liabilities and accrued expenses........................................................... 44,162 41,903	 Total liabilities............................................................................ 1,138,623 1,033,832 Stockholders' equity Preferred stock, authorized 5,000,000 shares at $1.00 par value; none issued in 1996 and 1995.... - - Common stock, authorized 100,000,000 shares at $.50 par value; issued and outstanding 38,000,000 shares in 1996 and 1995...................................... 19,000 19,000 Paid-in capital.................................................................................. 29,621 29,621 Net unrealized gains on investments, net of income taxes of $2,779 in 1996 and $8,887 in 1995.... 5,162 16,504 Retained earnings................................................................................ 521,354 508,948	 												 575,137 574,073 Treasury stock 1,643,748 shares in 1996 and 1,263,433 shares in 1995 ........................... (31,925) (24,359) Total stockholders' equity................................................................... 543,212 549,714	 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity................................................... $1,681,835 $1,583,546	 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. 								- 3 - THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF EARNINGS Three Months Ended March 31, 1996 and 1995 (Thousands of Dollars Except Per Share Data) (Unaudited) 										 1996 		 1995 	 Revenues Earned premiums ............................................................. $ 151,736 $ 142,414 Net investment income........................................................ 18,958 17,405 Premium finance fees......................................................... 4,019 4,959 Net realized investment losses............................................... (911) (316) Total revenues...................................................... 173,802 164,462 Expenses Losses and loss adjustment expenses.......................................... 123,122 94,673 Policy acquisition costs..................................................... 33,316 40,274 Total expenses...................................................... 156,438 134,947 Earnings before income taxes........................................ 17,364 29,515 Income taxes................................................................... 2,771 7,244 NET EARNINGS........................................................ $ 14,593 $ 22,271 NET EARNINGS PER COMMON SHARE....................................... $ .40 $ .59 WEIGHTED AVERAGE NUMBER OF COMMON SHARES OUTSTANDING................ 36,556,902 38,000,000 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. - - 4 - THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS Three Months Ended March 31, 1996 and 1995 (Thousands of Dollars) (Unaudited) 												 1996		 1995 Cash flows from operating activities: Net earnings......................................................................		$ 14,593 	$ 22,271 Adjustments to reconcile net earnings to net cash provided by operating activities: Premiums receivable.............................................................		 (60,405)	 (38,310) Deferred policy acquisition costs...............................................		 (19,996)	 (13,603) Residual market receivable......................................................		 6,404 	 (10,274) Due to/from reinsurers..........................................................		 1,676 	 480 Losses and loss adjustment expenses.............................................		 14,703 	 9,492 Unearned premiums...............................................................		 85,447 	 61,660 Current income taxes............................................................		 4,189 	 641 Deferred income taxes...........................................................		 (2,750)	 (916) Deferred income.................................................................		 232 	 972 Other liabilities and accrued expenses..........................................		 256 	 5,683 Net realized investment losses..................................................		 911 	 316 Other - net.....................................................................		 1,592		 670 Net cash provided by operating activities................................		 46,852 	 39,082 Cash flows from investing activities: Proceeds from maturity of fixed maturities......................................		 10,723 	 4,388 Proceeds from sale of fixed maturities...........................................		 10,304 	 8,145 Purchase of fixed maturities.....................................................		 (66,838)	 (9,404) Purchase of equity securities.....................................................		 (40,090)	 - Proceeds from sale of equity securities...........................................		 2,028 	 59 Payments received on mortgage loans on real estate...............................		 1,909 	 1,111 Mortgage loans on real estate originated..........................................		 (2,799)	 (1,850) Payments received on collateral notes receivable..................................		 84 	 113 Collateral notes receivable originated............................................		 - 	 (240) Proceeds from sale of real estate acquired by foreclosures........................		 92 	 84 Purchase of property and equipment ...............................................		 (699)	 (1,722) Proceeds from sale of property and equipment......................................		 84 	 57 Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities......................		 (85,202)	 741	 Cash flows from financing activities: Dividends paid to stockholders....................................................		 (2,187)	 (1,900) Purchase of treasury stock........................................................		 (7,566)	 - 	 Net cash used in financing activities....................................		 (9,753)	 (1,900) Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents....................................		 (48,103)	 37,923 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period....................................		 75,906		 25,294 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period..........................................		$ 27,803		$ 63,217 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. - - 5 - The Commerce Group, Inc. NOTES TO UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 1.	The financial information has been prepared on a basis consistent with the accounting principles reflected in the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 1995. Certain information and footnote disclosures normally included in financial statements prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles have been omitted pursuant to the Securities and Exchange Commission rules and regulations, although the Company believes the disclosures which have been made are adequate to make the information presented not misleading. 2.	The information furnished includes all adjustments and accruals consisting only of normal recurring adjustments which are, in the opinion of management, necessary for a fair presentation of results for the interim periods. Certain 1995 account balances have been reclassified to conform to the current year's presentation. 3.	The consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 4.	Neither the results for the three months ended March 31, 1996 nor comparison with the corresponding three months ended March 31, 1995 should be considered indicative of the results which may be expected for the year ending December 31, 1996. 5.	In May 1995, the Board of Directors announced that it had approved a stock buyback program of up to 3 million shares. As of March 31, 1996, 1,643,748 shares of Treasury Stock were purchased under the program. 6.	Disclosure of supplemental cash flow information: 									Three Months Ended 									 March 31, 									 1996 1995 	Cash paid during the period for: 	 Federal and state income taxes					$ 1,367	 $ 7,527 	 State premium and related taxes 	 of insurance subsidiaries 				 6,352	 6,142 	Non-cash investing and financing activities: 	 Real estate acquired by foreclosure				 - 	 534 - - 6 - The Commerce Group, Inc. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS Three months ended March 31, 1996 compared to three months ended March 31, 1995 Direct premiums written during the first quarter of 1996, increased $33,664,000 or 16.2% to $241,520,000, as compared to the same period in 1995. The increase was primarily attributable to a $28,670,000 or 16.2% increase in direct premiums written for personal automobile insurance of which $7,479,000 was derived from the Company's California subsidiary, Western Pioneer Insurance Company. This increase in personal automobile direct premiums written resulted primarily from an increase of 30.6% in the number of Massachusetts personal automobile exposures written, offset by a 14.4% decrease in the average Massachusetts personal automobile premium per exposure (each vehicle insured). This was primarily the result of the Company's affinity group marketing programs, safe driver rate deviations and the 1996 state mandated rate decrease of 4.5%. In January 1996, the Company was granted approval to offer their customers safe driver deviations of 10%. For drivers who qualify, both group discount and safe driver deviations can be combined for up to a 19% reduction from state mandated rates. Direct premiums written for commercial automobile insurance decreased by $2,027,000, or 12.4%, due primarily to a 7.6% decrease in the number of policies written, as well as a 4.8% decrease in the average commercial automobile premium per policy. Direct premiums written for homeowners insurance (excluding Massachusetts Fair Plan) decreased by $70,000, or 0.7% due primarily to a 2.6% decrease in the number of policies written, offset by an increase in the average premium per policy of approximately 1.9%. Net premiums written during the first quarter of 1996 increased $32,353,000 or 15.9% as compared to 1995. The increase in net premiums written was primarily due to changes in direct premiums written as described above, offset by the effect of reinsurance. Additionally, written premiums assumed from the Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers ("C.A.R.") decreased $2,659,000 or 9.0% and written premiums ceded to C.A.R. decreased $320,000, or 1.2% as compared to the first quarter of 1995, as a result of changes in the industry's and the Company's utilization of C.A.R. reinsurance. Earned premiums increased $9,322,000 or 6.5% during the first quarter of 1996 as compared to the same period of 1995. Earned premiums assumed from C.A.R. decreased $3,048,000, or 13.5% during the first quarter of 1996 compared to the same period in 1995. This was offset by an increase of $12,370,000, or 10.3% in earned premiums on all other business of which $6,958,000 was attributable to Western Pioneer. Net investment income increased $1,553,000, or 8.9%, compared to the first quarter of 1995, principally as a result of an increase in average invested assets (at cost) of 7.9% as compared to the first quarter of 1995. Annualized net investment income as a percentage of total average investments was 7.3% during the three months ended March, 1996 as compared to 7.2% during the same period in 1995. - - 7 - The Commerce Group, Inc. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued) Premium finance fees decreased $940,000, or 19.0% during the first quarter of 1996 as compared to the same period in 1995. The decrease was primarily attributable to a change from interest based finance fees to a "late payment" fee based system for personal automobile policies with effective dates of January 1, 1996 and forward. The change was in response to competitive forces that occurred in the Massachusetts marketplace. Net realized investment losses totaled $911,000 during the first quarter of 1996 as compared to $316,000 for the same period in 1995. The realized losses in the first quarter of 1996 were primarily the result of sales of GNMA's and tax-exempt bonds. Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred as a percentage of insurance premiums earned ("loss ratio") increased to 81.5% for the first quarter of 1996 as compared to 66.4% for the same period in 1995. The ratio of net incurred losses, excluding LAE, to premiums earned ("pure loss ratio") on personal automobile increased to 67.2% compared to 60.7% in the first quarter of 1995. This increase was primarily due to the adverse impact of the severe winter weather conditions experienced in the northeast coupled with a decrease in the personal automobile average premium rate. The average rate decrease was due to the effects of affinity group marketing programs, safe driver rate deviations and the 1996 state mandated rate decrease of 4.5%. The commercial automobile pure loss ratio increased to 70.8% compared to 55.0% during the first quarter of 1995. This increase was primarily due to adverse loss experience in the liability component on the retained commercial automobile business, as well as adverse loss experience on commercial automobile business assumed from C.A.R. For homeowners, the pure loss ratio increased to 142.2% compared to 67.2% during the first quarter of 1995. This increase was due to severe weather during the first quarter of 1996 as compared to mild weather during the same period in 1995. Policy acquisition costs decreased by 17.3% during the first quarter of 1996 compared to the same period in 1995. The decrease in policy acquisition costs was primarily due to a decrease in agents profit sharing compensation resulting from the impact of adverse weather conditions on the Company's loss ratio, a decrease in the state mandated Massachusetts personal automobile commission rates and the impact of affinity group marketing service fee income. Agents' profit sharing compensation is based in part on the underwriting profits of agency business written with the Company. As a percentage of net premiums written, underwriting expenses (on a statutory basis) were 22.6% during the first quarter of 1996 as compared to 26.0% for the same period in 1995. This decrease was primarily attributable to the reasons as mentioned above. - - 8 - The Commerce Group, Inc. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued) The Company's effective tax rate was 16.0% for the first quarter of 1996 as compared to 24.5% for the same period in 1995. In both years the effective tax rate was lower than the statutory rate of 35% primarily due to tax-exempt interest income. The 1996 rate was further reduced by the effect of equivalent tax- exempt interest in the first quarter of 1996 as compared to the same period in 1995 coupled with reduced earnings in the first quarter of 1996 (taxed at the 35% rate) as compared to the same period in 1995. Net earnings decreased $7,678,000 during the first quarter of 1996 as compared to the same period in 1995, as a result of the factors mentioned above. Liquidity and Capital Resources The focus of the discussion of liquidity and capital resources is the Consolidated Balance Sheets on page 3 and the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows on page 5. Stockholders' equity decreased by $6,502,000, or 1.2%, during the first three months of 1996. This decrease was the result of net earnings of $14,593,000, offset by the decrease in net unrealized gains, net of income taxes, on fixed maturities and equity securities of $11,342,000, dividends paid to stockholders of $2,187,000, and treasury stock purchased of $7,566,000. Total assets at March 31, 1996 increased by $98,289,000, or 6.2%, to $1,681,835,000 as compared to total assets of $1,583,546,000 at December 31, 1995. The majority of this growth was reflected in an increase in invested assets of $65,246,000 or 6.3%, $60,405,000 or 47.5% in premiums receivable, $19,996,000, or 29.8% in deferred policy acquisition costs, offset by a decrease in all other assets of $47,358,000. As of March 31, 1996, the book value of the Company's fixed maturity portfolio exceeded its market value by $2,016,000 ($1,310,000 after taxes, or $.04 per share). At December 31, 1995 the market value of the Company's fixed maturity portfolio exceeded its book value by $13,969,000 ($9,080,000 after taxes, or $.24 per share). The Company's liabilities totalled $1,138,623,000 at March 31, 1996 as compared to $1,033,832,000 at December 31, 1995. The $104,791,000 or 10.1% increase was comprised of a $14,703,000 or 2.4% increase in losses and loss adjustment expenses, an increase of $85,447,000 or 25.9% in unearned premiums, and by a $4,641,000 or 5.5% increase in all other liabilities. These changes primarily resulted from the increase in personal automobile direct premiums written, as previously mentioned, coupled with the adverse impact of severe winter weather in the northeast. - - 9 - The Commerce Group, Inc. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued) The primary sources of the Company's liquidity are funds generated from insurance premiums, premium finance fees, net investment income and maturing investments as reflected in the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows on page 5. In response to the changing competitive forces in the marketplace, the Company has eliminated interest based premium finance fees for both new and renewal personal automobile insurance policies with effective dates on or after January 1, 1996 and replaced it with a "late payment" fee based system. The impact of this change through the first quarter of 1996 has resulted in a 19.0% decrease in premium finance fees as compared to the same period in 1995. The Company's operating activities provided net cash of $ 46,852,000 in the first three months of 1996 as compared to $39,082,000 in 1995. These cash flows were primarily impacted by the Company's premium writings attributable to the affinity group marketing programs mentioned previously. The net cash flows used in investing activities were primarily the result of purchases of fixed maturities and equity securities offset by proceeds from the sale and maturity of fixed maturities. Investing activities were funded by accumulated cash and cash provided by operating activities during 1996 and 1995. Cash flows used in financing activities totaled $9,753,000 during the first three months of 1996 compared to $1,900,000 during the same period in 1995. This is primarily due to the purchase of 380,315 shares of Treasury Stock under the Company's stock buyback program. The Company's funds are generally invested in securities with maturities intended to provide adequate funds to pay claims without the forced sale of investments. At March 31, 1996, the Company held cash and cash equivalents of approximately $27,803,000. These funds provide sufficient liquidity for the payment of claims and other short-term cash needs. The Company relies upon dividends from its subsidiaries for its cash requirements. Every domestic insurance company seeking to make any dividend or other distributions to its stockholders must file a report with the Commissioner. An extraordinary dividend is any dividend or other property, whose fair value together with other dividends or distributions made within the preceding twelve months exceeds the greater of ten percent of the insurer's surplus as regards policyholders as of the end of the preceding year, or the net income of a non-life insurance company for the preceding year. No pro-rata distribution of any class of the insurer's own securities is to be included. No domestic insurance company shall pay an extraordinary dividend or other extraordinary distribution until thirty days after the Commissioner has received notice of the intended distribution and has not objected. - - 10 - The Commerce Group, Inc. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued) Periodically, sales have been made from the Company's fixed maturity investment portfolio to actively manage portfolio risks, including credit-related concerns and matching of asset and liability cash flows, to optimize tax planning and to realize gains. This practice will continue in the future. Industry and regulatory guidelines suggest that the ratio of a property and casualty insurer's annual net written premiums to statutory policyholders' surplus should not exceed 3.00 to 1.00. The Company's statutory premiums to surplus ratio was 1.62 to 1.00 and 1.77 to 1.00 for the twelve months ended March 31, 1996 and 1995, respectively. Recent Significant Events The Company continues to monitor acquisition opportunities consistent with a long term growth strategy to expand outside Massachusetts through acquisitions of smaller automobile insurance companies that are in need of capital, have established management in place and present significant growth opportunities in their market areas. The Company continues its pursuit of licenses in the states of New Hampshire and Rhode Island. In March 1996, the Company was notified that its application for a license in the state of Connecticut was approved, effective May 1, 1996. The Company began a stock buyback program during the second quarter of 1995. The program, which was approved by the Board of Directors on May 19, 1995, authorizes the Company to purchase up to 3 million shares of Treasury Stock. Since the inception of the program through March 31, 1996, the Company has purchased 1,643,748 shares of Treasury Stock, of which, 380,315 shares were purchased during the first quarter of 1996. Additionally, the Company's Employee Stock Ownership Plan has purchased more than 225,000 shares in open market transactions since the buyback program was announced. Also in the first quarter, the Company began eliminating interest based premium finance fees on new and renewal personal automobile insurance policies with effective dates on or after January 1, 1996. As a result, premium finance fees as a source of the Company's liquidity has decreased $940,000 or 19.0%. Effects of Inflation and Recession The Company generally is unable to recover the costs of inflation in its personal automobile insurance line since the premiums it charges are subject to state regulation. The premium rates charged by the Company for personal automobile insurance are adjusted by the Commissioner only at annual intervals. Such annual adjustments in premium rates may lag behind related cost increases. Economic recessions will also have an impact upon the Company, primarily through the policyholder's election to decrease non-compulsory coverages afforded by the policy and decreased driving, each of which tends to decrease claims. - - 11 - The Commerce Group, Inc. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (Continued) To the extent inflation and economic recession influence yields on investments, the Company is also affected. As each of these environments affect current market rates of return, previously committed investments may rise or decline in value depending on the type and maturity of investment. Inflation and recession must also be considered by the Company in the creation and review of loss and LAE reserves since portions of these reserves are expected to be paid over extended periods of time. The anticipated effect of economic conditions is implicitly considered when estimating liabilities for losses and LAE. The importance of continually adjusting reserves is even more pronounced in periods of changing economic circumstances. - - 12 - The Commerce Group, Inc. PART II - OTHER INFORMATION ITEM 6. EXHIBITS AND REPORTS ON FORM 8-K (a) Form 8-K - none filed during the first quarter of 1996. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized. 							 THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. RANDALL V. BECKER __ Randall V. Becker Treasurer and Chief Accounting Officer - - 13 - The Commerce Group, Inc. PART II - OTHER INFORMATION ITEM 6. EXHIBITS AND REPORTS ON FORM 8-K (a) Form 8-K - none filed during the first quarter of 1996. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized. 							 THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC. __ Randall V. Becker Treasurer and Chief Accounting Officer - - 13 -