EXHIBIT 99
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
NEWS RELEASE
Triad Guaranty Inc.
NASDAQ Symbol: TGIC
www.triadguaranty.com
- ---------------------
Contact: Ken Jones
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
800-451-4872 ext.1105
kjones@tgic.com
---------------
TRIAD GUARANTY INC. REPORTS EARNINGS
OF $17.3 MILLION FOR THE FIRST QUARTER
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C., April 26, 2007-- Triad Guaranty Inc. (NASDAQ: TGIC) today
reported net income for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 of $17.3 million
compared with $18.6 million for the same quarter a year ago, a decrease of 7%.
Diluted earnings per share were $1.16 for the first quarter of 2007 compared
with $1.25 for the first quarter of 2006, a decrease of 7%. Realized investment
gains, net of taxes, increased diluted earnings per share by $0.03 in the first
quarter of 2007 and $0.04 the first quarter of 2006.
Mark K. Tonnesen, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, " The highlight
for the quarter was our continued success in new production which contributed to
the 34% top line growth in earned premiums. Strong Primary production during the
quarter coupled with improved persistency enabled our total insurance in force
to grow 28% compared to a year ago. Changes in the market place - including tax
deductibility for mortgage insurance, problems evidenced in sub prime, widening
credit spreads, a flat yield curve, and a concurrent movement toward more
traditional underwriting and products - have favored our business. We view this
as an opportunity for Triad."
Mr. Tonnesen continued, "That said, it remains difficult navigating through
these unsettled times in the housing and mortgage markets. Most challenging in
the short term is weakness in the housing market. Home prices are generally flat
to declining and housing inventories are growing steadily, placing continued
pressure on the amount of paid claims and our ability to effectively mitigate
potential losses. The result for the first quarter was continued building of
reserves and a quarterly loss ratio of 50.9%. Our strategy to limit our exposure
to the sub prime market has proven wise. However, we have changed our portfolio
profile over time to include more Alt A product and recently more potential
negative amortization mortgages. These products continue to perform as expected
but require our ongoing diligent review as they season further."
Total insurance in force reached $61.5 billion at March 31, 2007, compared with
$48.2 billion a year ago. Insurance in force included Primary of $38.0 billion
and Modified Pool of $23.5 billion at March 31, 2007, compared with $29.9
billion and $18.3 billion, respectively, a year earlier. New insurance written
during the first quarter of 2007 totaled $7.6 billion compared with $6.5 billion
in the first quarter of 2006. Primary new insurance written for the first
quarter of 2007 was $5.7 billion, up significantly from $1.9 billion in the
first quarter of 2006. New insurance written attributable to Modified Pool
transactions, which can vary substantially from quarter to quarter, totaled $1.9
billion in the first quarter of 2007, down from $4.6 billion for the same period
of 2006. In the supplemental data accompanying this release, we have included
expanded information regarding potential negative amortization mortgages, which
have grown to be a meaningful portion of our new insurance written and insurance
in force.
Earned premiums for the first quarter of 2007 were $63.9 million, an increase of
$16.1 million over the same period a year ago. The increase in earned premiums
was due almost equally to the growth in both Primary and Modified Pool insurance
in force over the past year. Persistency was 77.0% at March 31, 2007 compared
with 71.1% at March 31, 2006.
Incurred losses for the first quarter were $32.6 million, down from $41.3
million in the fourth quarter of 2006 and significantly up from $16.4 million in
the first quarter of 2006. Total paid claims for the first quarter of 2007 were
$17.7 million, up $1.1 million from the fourth quarter of 2006 and up $3.3
million from $14.4 million in the first quarter of 2006. Primary severity on
paid claims was $31,300 in the first quarter of 2007, up 11% from $28,100
experienced in the fourth quarter of 2006 and up from $26,300 in the first
quarter of 2006. The Primary delinquency rate declined to 2.35% at March 31,
2007 compared with 2.47% at December 31, 2006 and 2.46% at March 31, 2006. The
Modified Pool delinquency rate increased to 2.93% at March 31, 2007, compared
with 2.67% and 2.02% at December 31, 2006 and March 31, 2006, respectively,
reflecting the continued seasoning of insurance in force during the last twelve
months.
The Company's loss ratio was 50.9% for the first quarter of 2007 compared with
44.7% for the full year 2006. The Company's expense ratio was 22.8% for the
first quarter of 2007 compared to 24.6% for the full year 2006.
Triad Guaranty Inc.'s wholly owned subsidiary, Triad Guaranty Insurance
Corporation, is a nationwide mortgage insurer providing credit enhancement
solutions to its lender customers and the capital markets. This allows buyers to
achieve homeownership sooner, facilitates the sale of mortgage loans in the
secondary market and protects lenders from credit default-related expenses. For
more information, please visit the Company's web site at
http://www.triadguaranty.com
Diluted realized investment gains/(losses) per share, net of taxes is a non-GAAP
measure. We believe this is relevant and useful information to investors
because, except for losses on impaired securities, it shows the effect that the
Company's discretionary sale of investments had on earnings.
This document may contain forward-looking statements that involve various risks
and uncertainties. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the
forward-looking statements. Attention is directed to the discussion of risk and
uncertainties as part of the Safe Harbor statement under the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995 contained in the Company's most recent annual
report, Form 10-K and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
- ### -
(Relevant Triad Guaranty Inc. financial statistics follow this news release.)
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Consolidated Income Statement
(Unaudited)
Three Months Ended
March 31,
2007 2006
---- ----
(Dollars in thousands
except per share amounts)
Premiums written:
Direct $ 78,408 $ 59,312
Ceded (12,701) (10,970)
-------- --------
Net premiums written $ 65,707 $ 48,342
======== ========
Earned premiums $ 63,949 $ 47,890
Net investment income 7,349 6,222
Net realized investment gains (losses) 761 900
Other income (losses) 2 (2)
-------- --------
Total revenues 72,061 55,010
Net losses and loss adjustment expenses 32,581 16,351
Interest expense on debt 694 693
Amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs 4,624 3,862
Other operating expenses - net 10,330 8,513
-------- --------
Income before income taxes 23,832 25,591
Income taxes 6,510 7,038
-------- --------
Net income $ 17,322 $ 18,553
======== ========
Basic earnings per share $ 1.17 $ 1.26
Diluted earnings per share $ 1.16 $ 1.25
Weighted average common and common
stock equivalents outstanding (in thousands)
Basic 14,819 14,758
Diluted 14,946 14,862
NON-GAAP INFORMATION:
Diluted realized investment gains (losses)
per share, net of taxes $ 0.03 $ 0.04
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Consolidated Balance Sheet
(Unaudited) (Unaudited)
March 31, December 31, March 31,
2007 2006 2006
---- ---- ----
(Dollars in thousands except per share amounts)
Assets:
Invested assets:
Fixed maturities, available for sale, at market $ 608,945 $ 586,594 $ 541,393
Equity securities, available for sale, at market 9,921 10,417 9,987
Other Investments 5,000 5,000 -
Short-term investments 45,294 5,301 5,053
---------- ---------- ----------
669,160 607,312 556,433
Cash and cash equivalents 10,429 38,609 13,743
Deferred policy acquisition costs 35,035 35,143 33,904
Prepaid federal income tax 166,693 166,908 139,465
Other assets 50,198 47,659 42,433
---------- ---------- ----------
Total assets $ 931,515 $ 895,631 $ 785,978
========== ========== ==========
Liabilities:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 98,721 $ 84,352 $ 52,614
Unearned premiums 15,022 13,193 13,944
Deferred income tax 180,232 176,483 159,180
Long-term debt 34,512 34,510 34,503
Other liabilities 15,876 16,869 10,530
---------- ---------- ----------
Total liabilities 344,363 325,407 270,771
Stockholders' equity:
Retained earnings 470,398 453,076 405,995
Accumulated other comprehensive income 10,157 12,018 7,211
Other equity accounts 106,597 105,130 102,001
---------- ---------- ----------
Total stockholders' equity 587,152 570,224 515,207
---------- ---------- ----------
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $ 931,515 $ 895,631 $ 785,978
========== ========== ==========
Stockholders' equity per share:
Including unrealized investment gains $ 39.38 $ 38.38 $ 34.74
Excluding unrealized investment gains $ 38.70 $ 37.57 $ 34.25
Common shares outstanding 14,908,523 14,856,401 14,831,560
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Sequential Quarterly Statistical Information
(Unaudited)
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
INSURANCE IN FORCE
- ------------------
Primary insurance in force:
- Flow business $ 35,366 $ 32,779 $ 31,012 $ 30,064 $ 29,510 $ 29,364 $ 29,327 $ 28,904 $ 28,314
- Structured bulk transactions 2,616 1,330 1,094 719 381 428 492 585 687
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total Primary insurance in force 37,982 34,109 32,106 30,783 29,891 29,792 29,820 29,489 29,001
Modified Pool insurance in force 23,507 22,719 21,779 20,022 18,309 14,615 13,406 10,018 9,217
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total insurance in force $ 61,489 $ 56,828 $ 53,885 $ 50,804 $ 48,200 $ 44,407 $ 43,225 $ 39,507 $ 38,218
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
Number of insured loans:
- Primary 239,326 225,531 219,287 216,458 215,736 217,397 219,159 219,256 217,657
- Modified Pool 114,711 112,555 110,650 107,653 101,934 85,091 78,241 59,581 55,182
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total number of insured loans 354,037 338,086 329,937 324,111 317,670 302,488 297,400 278,837 272,839
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
Average loan size:
- Primary $ 158.7 $ 151.2 $ 146.4 $ 142.2 $ 138.6 $ 137.0 $ 136.1 $ 134.5 $ 133.2
- Modified Pool $ 204.9 $ 201.9 $ 196.8 $ 186.0 $ 179.6 $ 171.8 $ 171.3 $ 168.1 $ 167.0
Credit quality of primary insurance
in force(1)
Prime 77.1% 80.4% 81.5% 82.9% 84.6% 84.9% 85.5% 86.2% 87.2%
Alt-A 19.1% 15.4% 14.1% 12.3% 10.4% 9.9% 9.2% 8.4% 7.6%
A Minus 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3%
Sub Prime 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Primary Alt A insurance in force by
credit score:
FICO between 620 and 659 8.9% 10.1% 11.6% 14.4% 17.9% 19.2% 20.0% 21.6% 22.7%
FICO between 660 and 699 30.9% 32.5% 33.9% 34.4% 34.0% 33.9% 34.4% 36.6% 38.0%
FICO between 700 and 739 33.7% 31.9% 30.3% 28.2% 27.1% 26.4% 26.0% 23.8% 22.7%
FICO greater than 739 26.5% 25.5% 24.2% 22.9% 21.0% 20.5% 19.6% 18.0% 16.5%
Potential Negative Amortization
Mortgages (PNAM)
% of Primary Insurance in Force 14.3% 11.7%
% of Modified Pool Insurance in Force 19.9% 21.2%
Credit quality of Primary PNAM
Prime 30.8% 35.1%
Alt-A 69.1% 64.7%
A Minus 0.1% 0.2%
Sub Prime 0.0% 0.0%
Primary flow insurance in force subject to
captive reinsurance arrangements 57.9% 61.0% 62.9% 62.7% 59.7% 59.0% 58.3% 57.2% 56.7%
Primary annual persistency rate 77.0% 76.6% 75.3% 72.7% 71.1% 70.0% 69.7% 70.9% 69.0%
<FN>
(1) The Credit Quality of loans notated above are defined as followed: Prime -All business that is not Alt A, A-, or subprime;
Alt A - Loans with credit scores >= 620 and that were underwritten with low or no documentation; A minus -Loans with credit
scores >= 575 and <= 619; Subprime - Loans with credit scores less than 575
</FN>
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Sequential Quarterly Statistical Information (con't.)
(Unaudited)
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
RISK IN FORCE - PRIMARY
- -----------------------
Primary net risk in force:
- Flow business $ 8,094 $ 7,447 $ 7,016 $ 6,781 $ 6,652 $ 6,624 $ 6,647 $ 6,509 $ 6,351
- Structured bulk business 843 377 305 185 127 143 159 191 223
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total Primary net risk in force $ 8,937 $ 7,824 $ 7,321 $ 6,966 $ 6,779 $ 6,767 $ 6,806 $ 6,700 $ 6,574
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
Primary risk in force by credit score
FICO less than 575 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
FICO between 575 and 619 3.2% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%
FICO between 620 and 659 15.9% 16.4% 16.7% 17.3% 17.8% 17.9% 18.2% 18.3% 18.1%
FICO between 660 and 699 24.7% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.4% 24.4% 24.6% 24.7%
FICO between 700 and 739 25.9% 25.2% 24.7% 24.2% 23.9% 23.9% 23.8% 23.7% 23.8%
FICO greater than 739 29.8% 29.7% 29.8% 29.3% 28.9% 28.7% 28.3% 27.9% 27.8%
Primary risk in force by policy year
2001 and prior 3.7% 4.4% 5.0% 5.7% 6.4% 6.9% 7.6% 8.6% 9.7%
2002 4.6% 5.5% 6.3% 7.1% 8.0% 8.6% 9.5% 11.1% 12.6%
2003 14.3% 17.1% 19.4% 22.0% 24.6% 26.6% 29.3% 33.4% 37.3%
2004 13.9% 16.8% 19.3% 21.9% 24.4% 26.1% 28.2% 31.4% 34.2%
2005 19.6% 23.4% 26.3% 29.1% 31.3% 31.8% 25.4% 15.5% 6.2%
2006 30.5% 32.8% 23.7% 14.2% 5.3% - - - -
2007 13.5% - - - - - - - -
Primary risk in force by loan type:
- Fixed 66.2% 70.1% 71.0% 72.6% 73.8% 73.7% 73.6% 74.1% 75.6%
- ARM (positive amortization) 19.9% 18.3% 19.4% 19.8% 21.3% 22.2% 23.1% 23.9% 23.7%
- ARM (potential negative amortization) 13.9% 11.6% 9.6% 7.6% 4.9% 4.1% 3.3% 2.0% 0.7%
Primary risk in force by property type:
- Condominium 10.1% 9.6% 9.2% 8.7% 8.3% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2% 7.1%
- Other (principally single-
family detached) 89.9% 90.4% 90.8% 91.3% 91.7% 92.2% 92.5% 92.8% 92.9%
Primary risk in force by occupancy status:
- Primary residence 88.1% 89.4% 89.7% 90.3% 91.3% 91.9% 92.7% 92.9% 93.3%
- Second home 7.7% 7.4% 7.0% 6.2% 5.3% 4.6% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4%
- Non-owner occupied 4.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3%
Primary risk in force by mortgage amount:
- $200,000 or less 53.9% 58.4% 61.3% 64.3% 66.7% 67.7% 68.5% 69.9% 70.9%
- Greater than $200,000 46.1% 41.6% 38.7% 35.7% 33.3% 32.3% 31.5% 30.1% 29.1%
Potential Negative Amortization
Mortgages (PNAM)
% of total Primary risk in force-
Flow business 13.7% 10.7%
% of total Primary risk in force-
Bulk business 16.1% 30.9%
% of total Primary risk in force-Total 13.9% 11.6%
Primary PNAM risk in force by credit score
FICO less than 575 0.0% 0.0%
FICO between 575 and 619 0.1% 0.2%
FICO between 620 and 659 9.0% 7.9%
FICO between 660 and 699 28.8% 29.7%
FICO between 700 and 739 33.7% 33.6%
FICO greater than 739 28.4% 28.6%
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Sequential Quarterly Statistical Information (con't.)
(Unaudited)
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
RISK IN FORCE - MODIFIED POOL
- -----------------------------
Modified Pool gross risk in force $ 933 $ 890 $ 837 $ 764 $ 751 $ 616 $ 579 $ 489 $ 462
Deductibles on gross risk $ 114 $ 101 $ 94 $ 90 $ 83 $ 71 $ 68 $ 59 $ 53
Modified Pool risk in force by credit
score(2):
FICO less than 575 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
FICO between 575 and 619 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.8%
FICO between 620 and 659 10.9% 11.3% 11.6% 12.0% 12.2% 14.2% 14.8% 17.4% 18.3%
FICO between 660 and 699 31.3% 31.0% 30.6% 30.2% 29.9% 31.1% 31.5% 33.2% 33.1%
FICO between 700 and 739 29.8% 29.4% 29.4% 29.5% 29.7% 28.4% 28.1% 27.2% 26.7%
FICO greater than 739 27.2% 27.3% 27.3% 27.1% 27.1% 25.0% 24.1% 20.2% 19.7%
Modified Pool risk in force by policy year
2001 and prior 2.8% 3.1% 3.7% 4.3% 4.7% 6.3% 8.0% 10.1% 11.9%
2002 3.4% 3.7% 4.3% 5.2% 5.8% 7.9% 10.1% 13.3% 16.3%
2003 14.7% 15.4% 16.4% 18.1% 18.4% 22.6% 24.2% 28.8% 30.7%
2004 16.0% 16.6% 17.6% 19.5% 19.6% 24.1% 26.0% 31.0% 32.9%
2005 29.2% 30.4% 32.3% 35.6% 35.9% 39.2% 31.7% 16.8% 8.2%
2006 29.9% 30.8% 25.7% 17.3% 15.4% - - - -
2007 4.0% - - - - - - - -
Modified Pool risk in force by loan type(2):
- Fixed 28.2% 31.0% 32.1% 35.5% 32.5% 41.3% 43.2% 47.9% 49.9%
- ARM (positive amortization) 59.4% 55.6% 56.1% 58.7% 65.8% 58.7% 56.8% 52.1% 50.1%
- ARM (potential negative amortization) 12.4% 13.4% 11.8% 5.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Modified Pool risk in force by
property type(2):
- Condominium 8.9% 8.0% 7.3% 7.2% 6.7% 5.9% 4.8% 2.2% 1.4%
- Other (principally single-
family detached) 91.1% 92.0% 92.7% 92.8% 93.3% 94.1% 95.2% 97.8% 98.6%
Modified Pool risk in force by
occupancy status(2):
- Primary residence 73.8% 73.7% 73.7% 73.9% 74.2% 74.2% 74.7% 74.9% 75.0%
- Second home 6.1% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.3%
- Non-owner occupied 20.1% 20.1% 20.3% 20.2% 19.9% 20.1% 19.6% 19.4% 19.7%
Modified Pool risk in force by
mortgage amount(2):
- $200,000 or less 37.1% 38.4% 39.6% 41.9% 42.9% 46.4% 46.3% 47.1% 47.5%
- Greater than $200,000 62.9% 61.6% 60.4% 58.1% 57.1% 53.6% 53.7% 52.9% 52.5%
Potential Negative Amortization
Mortgages (PNAM)(2)
%of total Modified Pool risk in force 12.4% 13.4%
Modified Pool PNAM risk in force by
credit score(2)
FICO less than 575 0.0% 0.0%
FICO between 575 and 619 0.1% 0.1%
FICO between 620 and 659 8.6% 8.5%
FICO between 660 and 699 32.5% 32.2%
FICO between 700 and 739 29.3% 29.3%
FICO greater than 739 29.5% 29.9%
<FN>
2) Percentages represent distribution of direct risk in force (RIF) on a per policy basis and do not account for applicable stop
loss amounts.
</FN>
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Sequential Quarterly Statistical Information (con't.)
(Unaudited)
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
PRODUCTION
- ----------
New insurance written (NIW):
- Primary flow business $ 4,372 $ 3,612 $ 2,844 $ 2,559 $ 1,947 $ 2,263 $ 3,091 $ 2,941 $ 2,161
- Primary structured bulk business 1,327 304 436 385 1 - 2 - 30
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total Primary 5,699 3,916 3,280 2,944 1,948 2,263 3,093 2,941 2,191
- Modified Pool 1,925 2,130 2,956 2,980 4,606 2,255 4,526 1,798 2,103
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total NIW $ 7,624 $ 6,046 $ 6,236 $ 5,924 $ 6,553 $ 4,518 $ 7,619 $ 4,739 $ 4,294
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
New risk written:
- Primary (gross) $ 1,576 $ 991 $ 865 $ 730 $ 490 $ 583 $ 822 $ 723 $ 540
- Modified Pool 69 78 106 92 142 55 97 46 62
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total new risk written $ 1,645 $ 1,069 $ 971 $ 822 $ 633 $ 638 $ 919 $ 769 $ 602
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
Primary NIW by loan-to-value ratio (LTV):
- Greater than 95% 26.2% 16.2% 20.7% 12.2% 10.1% 11.0% 14.1% 11.6% 13.2%
- 90.01% to 95.00% 23.8% 25.3% 23.3% 22.0% 25.0% 35.9% 43.0% 30.7% 30.1%
- 90.00% and below 50.0% 58.5% 56.0% 65.8% 64.9% 53.1% 42.9% 57.7% 56.7%
Potential Negative Amortization
Mortgages (PNAM)
% of total Primary NIW 29.2% 28.6%
% of total Modified Pool NIW 3.0% 40.3%
Primary PNAM NIW by loan-to-value
ratio (LTV):
- Greater than 95% 1.7% 5.3%
- 90.01% to 95.00% 25.4% 17.3%
- 90.00% and below 72.9% 77.5%
Modified Pool PNAM NIW by loan-to-value
ratio (LTV):
- 80.00% and below 100.0% 100.0%
Percent of Primary NIW from refinancings 44.1% 41.5% 28.9% 32.5% 33.5% 28.6% 26.5% 33.6% 34.9%
Percent of Primary flow NIW subject to
captive reinsurance arrangements 28.1% 31.9% 61.5% 61.2% 55.1% 55.1% 58.1% 54.6% 47.4%
<FN>
Note: The Company periodically enters into structured transactions involving loans that have insurance effective dates within
the current reporting period but for which detailed loan information regarding the insured loans is not provided until
later. When this occurs, the Company accrues due premium in the reporting period based on each loan's insurance effective date;
however, the loans are not reflected in the Company's in force and related data totals until the loan level detail is reported to
the Company. At March 31, 2007, the Company had approximately $1.899 billion of structured transactions with effective dates within
the first quarter for which loan level detail had not been received.
</FN>
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Sequential Quarterly Statistical Information (con't.)
(Unaudited)
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
DELINQUENCIES AND CLAIM INFORMATION
- -----------------------------------
Total primary delinquent loans 5,632 5,565 5,201 5,001 5,302 5,617 4,537 4,189 4,319
- Flow business 5,335 5,265 4,892 4,666 4,908 5,147 4,097 3,752 3,872
- Bulk business 297 300 309 335 394 470 440 437 447
Total Modified Pool delinquent loans 3,366 3,001 2,387 1,944 2,055 2,136 1,565 1,549 1,553
- Structured with deductibles 2,176 1,897 1,578 1,330 1,383 1,388 920 829 748
- Structured without deductibles 1,190 1,104 809 614 672 748 645 720 805
Total primary delinquency rate 2.35% 2.47% 2.37% 2.31% 2.46% 2.58% 2.07% 1.91% 1.98%
Modified Pool delinquency rate 2.93% 2.67% 2.16% 1.81% 2.02% 2.51% 2.00% 2.60% 2.81%
Potential Negative Amortization
Mortgages (PNAM)
Primary PNAM delinquent loans 227 142
Primary PNAM delinquency rate
(of total Primary PNAM loans) 1.37% 1.12%
Modified Pool PNAM delinquent loans 64 37
Modified Pool PNAM delinquency rate
(of total Modified Pool PNAM loans) 0.51% 0.28%
Primary average severity ($ thousands) $ 31.3 $ 28.1 $ 25.7 $ 25.8 $ 26.2 $ 26.2 $ 26.2 $ 28.9 $ 24.7
- Flow business $ 31.1 $ 27.9 $ 25.0 $ 25.0 $ 26.0 $ 24.9 $ 26.1 $ 29.0 $ 24.9
- Bulk business $ 34.0 $ 29.8 $ 37.6 $ 32.5 $ 27.4 $ 40.5 $ 27.4 $ 27.6 $ 21.0
Primary net paid claims ($ thousands) $ 16,447 $ 15,100 $ 13,016 $ 13,501 $ 13,305 $ 11,562 $ 11,982 $ 12,147 $ 8,681
- Flow business $ 15,122 $ 13,880 $ 11,887 $ 11,614 $ 11,444 $ 10,021 $ 10,555 $ 10,931 $ 8,283
- Bulk business $ 1,325 $ 1,220 $ 1,129 $ 1,887 $ 1,861 $ 1,540 $ 1,427 $ 1,216 $ 398
Modified Pool average
severity ($ thousands) $ 23.7 $ 26.2 $ 18.8 $ 19.4 $ 16.4 $ 18.0 $ 22.0 $ 24.5 $ 17.6
Modified Pool net paid claims($ thousands) $ 1,281 $ 1,493 $ 603 $ 930 $ 1,100 $ 862 $ 1,475 $ 1,150 $ 970
Risk in Default (without deductibles)
($ thousands) $292,434 $265,415 $220,204 $197,014 $204,934 $220,030 $180,154 $168,368 $179,605
Reserves as Percent of Risk at Default 33.8% 31.8% 27.3% 27.9% 25.7% 23.2% 23.2% 22.9% 19.4%
FINANCIAL INFORMATION
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Loss ratio - GAAP 50.9% 70.9% 35.7% 34.1% 34.1% 48.9% 38.4% 42.0% 27.4%
Expense ratio - GAAP 22.8% 22.8% 24.8% 25.6% 25.6% 26.4% 26.1% 26.4% 28.1%
Combined ratio - GAAP 73.7% 93.7% 60.5% 59.7% 59.7% 75.3% 64.5% 68.4% 55.5%
Risk-to-capital ratio 13.8:1 12.5:1 12.0:1 11.8:1 12.3:1 12.6:1 13.0:1 13.1:1 13.7:1