Exhibit 99(c)(ii)
JANUARY 19, 2000 CONFIDENTIAL
MATERIALS PREPARED FOR DISCUSSION
PROJECT TRUST
HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 1
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PROJECT TRUST
APPROACH TO THE ASSIGNMENT
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METHODOLOGY KEY ISSUES
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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis o Financial projections/sensitivities
o Discount rate
o Terminal value
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Comparable Acquisition Analysis o Appropriate comparables
o Undisclosed information
(eg: contract terms)
o Historical perspective
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Comparable Company Analysis o Trust equity market valuation
o Appropriate comparables:
o Size and market position
o Projected financial performance
o Geographic location
o Liquidity and capital structure
o Business profile
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HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 2
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PROJECT TRUST
TRANSACTION STATISTICS
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(US$ IN MILLIONS, EXCEPT PER SHARE ITEMS)
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OFFER PRICE $23.50
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Transaction Premiums:
As of 01/18/00 $17.00 38.2%
Average 11/17/99 - 1/14/00 17.42 34.9%
Prior to Offer on 09/20/99:
One Day $19.25 22.1%
One Month 18.14 29.5%
Six Months 17.05 37.8%
One Year 15.17 54.9%
Company Equity Value $310
Company Enterprise Value $763
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CREDIT | FIRST
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HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 3
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PROJECT TRUST
FORECAST OVERVIEW
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THREE CASES WERE ANALYZED:
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I. ADJUSTED CASE: Management's projection of cash flows for the
signed development projects with revised probability
weights assigned to the portfolio of unsigned
contracts. Also includes potential cash flows from
the limited merchant electric power plant development
at existing Trigen facilities.
II. MANAGEMENT CASE: Management's projection of current
operational contracts and signed development
contracts. No unsigned contracts are included.
III. LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT
CASE: Management's projection of current operational
contracts under a limited probability case for
cash flows of signed backlogs.
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NOTE: All cases based on Trigen management forecasts.
CREDIT | FIRST
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HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 4
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PROJECT TRUST
DCF ANALYSIS
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(US$ IN MILLIONS)
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VALUATION METHODOLOGY ENTERPRISE AMV/1999E
VALUE -------------------- AMV/2000E
REFERENCE RANGE EBITDA EBIT EBITDA
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ENTERPRISE VALUE REFERENCE
RANGE
Adjusted Case $742 - $843 11.3x - 12.9x 18.6x - 21.2x 7.1x - 8.1x
Management $716 - $798 10.8x - 12.0x 17.7x - 19.7x 7.2x - 8.1x
Limited Development $630 - $703 9.5x - 10.6x 15.6x - 17.4x 6.0x - 6.6x
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NOTE: All cases based on Trigen management forecasts. Multiples relative to
Adjusted Case financial projections based on discount rates of 8.5% -
9.0% and terminal value EBITDA multiples of 8.0x - 9.0x. Adjusted Case
includes Merchant Power project with applied equity discount rates of
14.0% - 15.0% and terminal value EBITDA multiples of 6.5x - 7.0x.
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HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 5
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PROJECT TRUST
COMPARABLE ACQUISITIONS ANALYSIS
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(US$ IN MILLIONS)
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ENTERPRISE VALUE
AS A MULTIPLE
OF EBITDA
EV VALUE CAPACITY ----------------
DATE TARGET ACQUIROR % BOUGHT (US$MM) (MW) LTM FORWARD
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8/27/99 Cogen Corp. of America Calpine 80% $383 463 13.0x 8.3x
2/23/99 CE Generation Electric El Paso Natural Gas 50% 861 410 4.7 6.8
10/30/98 Cogen Technologies Enron 100% 1,450 1,020 12.0 -
3/18/98 Bechtel/US Gen Cogentrix 15% 190 365 7.9 7.7
2/18/97 Destec Energy NGC Corp./AES 100% 1,207 2,970 16.5 12.2
7/8/96 Falcon Seaboard CalEnergy 88% 226 456 10.8 8.1
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CREDIT | FIRST
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HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 6
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PROJECT TRUST
COMPARABLE ACQUISITIONS ENTERPRISE VALUE REFERENCE RANGE
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(US$ IN MILLIONS, EXCEPT PER SHARE ITEMS)
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MULTIPLE RANGE IMPLIED ENTERPRISE VALUE
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LTM EBITDA $65.6 10.0x - 12.0x $656 - $787
2000 FORWARD EBITDA 105.4 7.0x - 9.0x 738 - 949
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ENTERPRISE VALUE REFERENCE RANGE $650 - $780
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NOTE: All cases based on Trigen management forecasts. Based on Adjusted Case.
LTM as of September 30, 1999.
CREDIT | FIRST
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CONFIDENTIAL 7
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PROJECT TRUST
COMPARABLE COMPANIES TRADING ANALYSIS
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ENTERPRISE VALUE AS A MULTIPLE OF
--------------------------------------------------- SHARE
LTM 1999E 2000E PRICE/EPS LT EPS
ENTERPRISE -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- GROWTH
COMPANY VALUE EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT 1999E 2000E RATE (E)
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TRIGEN $ 629 9.6X 15.3 8.4X 12.9 8.4X 12.4 21.4 14.4X 13.0%
Cogen Corp. of America(1) 415 11.3 17.1 7.2 9.5 6.5 8.2 10.8 7.4 NM
AES Corp. 18,686 24.4 31.5 20.5 24.6 13.2 16.3 28.2 23.2 26.0%
Calpine Corp. 5,816 26.3 36.9 27.4 35.8 20.5 26.7 53.5 42.3 27.1%
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Note: As of January 14, 2000. All cases based on Trigen management forecasts.
Trigen estimates per the Adjusted Case. Other estimates from First Call
and selected equity analyst reports. LTM as of September 30, 1999.
(1) Cogen Corp. of America was acquired by Calpine Corp. on August 27,
1999; trading statistics as of August 26, 1999.
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HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 8
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PROJECT TRUST
COMPARABLE COMPANIES TRADING ENTERPRISE VALUE REFERENCE RANGE
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(US$ IN MILLIONS, EXCEPT PER SHARE ITEMS)
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AMV/EV MULTIPLE IMPLIED ENTERPRISE
RANGE VALUE
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EBITDA
1999E 66.4 10.0 -12.0 663 - 796
2000E 105.4 8.0 -10.0 843 -1,054
EBIT
1999E 40.4 16.0 -18.0 646 - 727
2000E 71.7 11.0 -12.0 788 - 860
NET INCOME
1999E 11.7 21.0 -24.0 699 - 734
2000E 17.0 17.0 -20.0 742 - 793
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ENTERPRISE VALUE REFERENCE RANGE $670 -$770
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Note: All cases based on Trigen management forecasts. Based on Adjusted Case.
LTM as of September 30,1999.
CREDIT | FIRST
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HIGHLY
CONFIDENTIAL 9
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PROJECT TRUST
VALUATION SUMMARY
(US$ in Millions)
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VALUATION METHODOLOGY ENTERPRISE AMV/1999E
VALUE ------------------------- AMV/2000E
REFERENCE RANGE EBITDA EBIT EBITDA
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DCF Analysis(1)
Adjusted Case $742 -$843 11.3x-12.9x 18.6x-21.2x 7.1x- 8.1x
Management Case $716 -$798 10.8x-12.0x 17.7x-19.7x 7.2x- 8.1x
Limited Development $630 -$703 9.5x-10.6x 15.6x-17.4x 6.0x- 6.6x
Comparable Acquisitions $650 -$780 9.8x-11.7x 16.0x-19.3x 6.1x- 7.4x
Comparable Companies $670 -$770 10.1x-11.6x 16.5x-19.0x 6.3x- 7.3x
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PROPOSED PURCHASE PRICE $763 11.5X 18.9X 7.2X
AT $23.50 PER SHARE
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(1) All cases based on Trigen management forecasts.
CREDIT | FIRST
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