Exhibit 99.1
In its first quarter 2004 Earnings Conference Call to be held at 4:00P.M. (EST)
on February 26, 2004, Toll Brothers, Inc. (the "Company") will provide the
following guidance regarding its expected results of operations for its fiscal
year ending October 31, 2004. These forecasts are subject to many risks,
uncertainties and assumptions and may vary significantly from the actual
results, as further noted below. Information with respect to quarterly data is
subject to even greater fluctuation and risk. We undertake no obligation to
publicly update the information provided due to changes in economic conditions,
future events or otherwise. However, any further disclosures made on related
subjects in our subsequent filings, releases or presentations should be
consulted. We suggest that you listen to the conference call in its entirety.
The conference call in its entirety can be heard via the Investor Relations
portion of our website, www.tollbrothers.com, until April 30, 2004.
The guidance given represents a range of deliveries for each of the future
quarters and for the full fiscal year. The columns designated as "Low"
represents the low end of the range while the columns designated "High"
represent the upper end of the range. We expect that the actual results of
operations will be somewhere in between the low end and the high end of the
range provided.
The expected range of unit deliveries and delivered price in fiscal 2004 is:
Unit Deliveries Price (000's)
--------------------------------- ------------------------------
Low High Low High
--------------------------------- ------------------------------
Year 5,900 6,200 $550,000 $560,000
Quarter ending January 31, 2004 (Act) 1,085 1,085 543,000 543,000
Quarter ending April 31, 2004 (Est) 1,325 1,425 545,000 555,000
Quarter ending July 31, 2004 (Est) 1,475 1,575 550,000 560,000
Quarter ending October 31, 2004 (Est) 1,950 2,150 565,000 575,000
Home building gross margins as a percentage of homebuilding revenues in fiscal 2004 are expected to be:
Low High
---------------------------------
Year 27.90% 28.10%
Quarter ending January 31, 2004 (Act) 28.35% 28.35%
Quarter ending April 31, 2004 (Est) 27.65% 28.00%
Quarter ending July 31, 2004 (Est) 27.65% 27.85%
Quarter ending October 31, 2004 (Est) 27.90% 28.10%
Land sales revenues and gross margin for fiscal 2004 are expected to be approximately:
Revenues
(000's) Margin
---------------------------------
Year $17,000 25%
Quarter ending January 31, 2004 (Act) 5,987 11%
Quarter ending April 31, 2004 (Est) 500 30%
Quarter ending July 31, 2004 (Est) 5,000 30%
Quarter ending October 31, 2004 (Est) 6,000 30%
Other income for fiscal 2004 is expected to be approximately (amounts in thousands):
Amount
-----------------
Year $15,000
Quarter ending January 31, 2004 (Act) 1,683
Quarter ending April 31, 2004 (Est) 2,500
Quarter ending July 31, 2004 (Est) 4,000
Quarter ending October 31, 2004 (Est) 6,500
Income from unconsolidated entities for fiscal 2004 is expected to be approximately (amounts in thousands):
Amount
-----------------
Year $6,500
Quarter ending January 31, 2004 (Act) 665
Quarter ending April 31, 2004 (Est) 500
Quarter ending July 31, 2004 (Est) 2,500
Quarter ending October 31, 2004 (Est) 3,000
Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of total revenues in fiscal 2004 is expected to be:
Low High
---------------------------------
Year 10.90% 10.70%
Quarter ending January 31, 2004 (Act) 12.87% 12.82%
Quarter ending April 31, 2004 (Est) 11.75% 11.55%
Quarter ending July 31, 2004 (Est) 11.10% 10.90%
Quarter ending October 31, 2004 (Est) 9.20% 9.10%
Interest expense as a percentage of home sales and land sales revenues for the
three months ended January 31, 2004 was 2.44 %. Interest expense as a percentage
of home sales and land sales is expected to be approximately 2.6% for the second
quarter and 2.5% for the third and fourth quarters. For the full year, interest
expense will be approximately 2.5% of home sales and land sales revenues.
Income taxes for the three months ended January 31, 2004 was 36.6 % of income
before income taxes. Income taxes for the year and for each of the next three
quarters is expected to be approximately 37% of income before income taxes.
The share count to determine diluted earnings per share is based upon what we
believe will be an increasing share price during the year. We estimate that the
share count for determining diluted earnings per share will average 81.7 million
shares for the full fiscal year, starting at 80.8 million shares in the first
fiscal quarter and increasing to 82.2 million shares for the fourth fiscal
quarter.
Certain information included herein and in other Company reports, SEC filings,
statements and presentations is forward-looking within the meaning of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, but not limited to,
statements concerning anticipated operating results, financial resources,
changes in revenues, changes in profitability, interest expense, growth and
expansion, anticipated income from joint ventures and the Toll Brothers Realty
Trusts Group, the ability to acquire land, the ability to secure governmental
approvals and the ability to open new communities, the ability to sell homes and
properties, the ability to deliver homes from backlog, the average delivered
price of homes, the ability to secure materials and subcontractors, the ability
to maintain the liquidity and capital necessary to expand and take advantage of
future opportunities, and stock market valuations. Such forward-looking
information involves important risks and uncertainties that could significantly
affect actual results and cause them to differ materially from expectations
expressed herein and in other Company reports, SEC filings, statements and
presentations. These risks and uncertainties include local, regional and
national economic conditions, the demand for homes, domestic and international
political events, uncertainties created by terrorist attacks, the effects of
governmental regulation, the competitive environment in which the Company
operates, fluctuations in interest rates, changes in home prices, the
availability and cost of land for future growth, the availability of capital,
uncertainties and fluctuations in capital and securities markets, changes in tax
laws and their interpretation, legal proceedings, the availability of adequate
insurance at reasonable cost, the ability of customers to finance the purchase
of homes, the availability and cost of labor and materials, and weather
conditions.