EXHIBIT 99.4
TRW'S COMMENTS
EARNINGS RELEASE CONFERENCE CALL
THURSDAY, MAY 8, 2003
Good morning:
Our 1st quarter results were very close to what we expected. Our leasing
company's earnings continued to be our strongest performance.
During the 1st quarter, the winter weather came on stronger and lasted longer
than last year. As a result, we had a difference in our year-over-year
performance in our construction products business. Our highway safety products
businesses were affected the most by winter weather conditions because we ship
products into several key Northern states. During the past 30 days, as the
winter weather has become less of an issue, we are seeing a significant
improvement in demand in the majority of our construction products businesses.
Our backlogs have improved significantly.
Our industrial products group operated at a breakeven level during the 1st
quarter. The U.S. LP gas industry in the northeast was consumed by the winter
weather challenges. In March and April, we started to see some signs of
improvement. As I mentioned in our last conference call, we have consolidated
our executive oversight of our industrial group into our construction products
group and we are very pleased with the early results.
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During the first quarter, our barge group felt the effects of an industry wide
reduction in the demand for hopper barges. Our hopper barge business hit bottom
in February. Recently, we've been fortunate to book some additional hopper
barges which provide a base load for our business into the fall. The orders we
received have options for additional barges and if our customers exercise their
options, we will have our base load covered through the end of the year. We have
also booked some tank barge business recently and our existing production
extends for a year. I'm very pleased with the way the barge business has
rebounded as quickly as it has.
Discovery and pre-trial proceedings continue in our barge lawsuits. We have
begun to explore the possibility of settling with certain of the parties, but
there is no assurance that any agreement will be reached with any party. At this
time, it is too premature for me to make any additional comments.
Now I'll provide some comments pertaining to our railcar businesses. During the
1st quarter, the North American railcar industry continued to improve. The
industry order levels were slightly over 11,700 units. The majority of the
orders placed during the first quarter were for railcars used to transport coal
and intermodal container equipment. These two categories account for almost 60%
of the entire 1st quarter industry orders. As I've stated before, we are not
pursuing orders based on market share percentage goals. During the 1st quarter,
in the coal and intermodal markets, we booked enough orders to keep our existing
production lines running through the end of the year. We did not see value in
investing in additional production capacity on these product lines until there
is a
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sustainable order level. Sustainability is a key word for us as we assess the
railcar industry order levels. At the end of the 1st quarter our backlog of
orders for railcars in North America improved about 11% over the 4th quarter to
approximately 8200 units. Plus, we have the additional 4000 units with our
multi-year agreement with GATX which have not been included in our backlog.
In North America, we shipped approximately 1700 railcars during the first
quarter. Our shipments increased 18% from the 4th quarter. This sounds like a
significant increase in shipments from a percentage point of view, but it's
still a very reduced rate. Let me remind you that during 2000, Trinity and
Thrall shipped an average of 6700 railcars per quarter and in 2001, we shipped
an average of 4000 railcars per quarter. During 2002 our shipments averaged
1200 units per quarter. Until we reach the 3000 - 3500 units per quarter range,
our objectives and priorities in our rail-related businesses remain focused on
obtaining a base load of business. When our shipments are at such a reduced
level, our product mix significantly impacts our financial performance. Our
financial results will fluctuate as our product mix changes. Also, at a low rate
of production, when we deliver a large portion of railcars to our lease fleet,
it has an effect on our consolidated earnings because we defer profits on cars
delivered to our leasing company.
In the 1st quarter 68% of our shipments were delivered to lease fleet customers.
During the 2nd quarter, we expect to ship a comparable amount of cars as we did
in the first quarter with approximately half of our production going to lease
fleet customers.
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In the 2nd quarter, from an earnings point of view, we are expecting our rail
group's operating performance to improve around a million dollars. In the 3rd
quarter, we are expecting to increase our railcar production in North America to
a level between 2500 to 2700. At that point, we plan to be profitable. The
primary issue we see which could affect our ability to increase our production
is related to the current casting shortage. The North American railcar
manufacturing industry is currently constrained by the casting industry's
ability to produce under frame castings. Recently, our production has been
affected by this shortage and we are hopeful we will be able to obtain a
sufficient supply as we increase our production.
In our European rail group, the demand for rail wagons in Europe remains
relatively steady. We have recently announced we are closing our Czech Republic
facility and consolidating our manufacturing into our Romanian operation. This
move will improve our absorption of costs in Romania. Our backlog for orders
extends into 2004 and we have booked some nice orders recently. We expect to be
profitable in Europe by the 4th quarter.
From an overall earnings point of view, our first quarter should be our worst
quarter. We expect our 2nd quarter to be break even to a loss of 20 cents per
share. We expect to return to profitability during the 3rd quarter. There is
still too much uncertainty with the general economy for us to project a precise
figure for the year.
At this point, I'll turn it back over to Neil for questions.
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