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Exhibit 99.1
San Francisco Bay Area
Rental Analysis
PRESENTED TO
Bay Apartment Communities
PREPARED BY
Ann Roulac and Company
98 Main Street, Suite 439
Tiburon, CA 94920
415-435-2825
February 1997
2
Bay Apartment Communities, Inc.
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Table of Contents
Definition of Terms........................................................2
Market Overview............................................................3
Effective Rents............................................................5
Historical Rent Increases..................................................8
Historical Vacancy Rates..................................................10
Index of Exhibits
Exhibit I .........................................County and City Summaries
Exhibit II .............................List of Apartment Properties Surveyed
Exhibit III .................Rental Surveys of Institutional Grade Properties
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DEFINITION OF TERMS
Effective Rent: The average asking street rent less the value of all
concessions, including without limitation, moving allowances
or discounts. Note: Due to extremely tight market conditions
in the Bay Area, as of the writing of this report, we found
rental concessions to be negligible at this time.
Percent Change: The percent increase or decrease in the rental rate between
the applicable reporting periods.
Vacant Units: The total number of physically unoccupied units in completed
buildings throughout the applicable apartment complex or Bay
Area region.
Vacancy Rate: The percent of physically unoccupied units in completed
buildings throughout the applicable apartment complex or Bay
Area region, calculated by dividing the vacant units by the
total number of units in the applicable apartment complex or
Bay Area region.
Institutional
Quality/Grade: Professionally managed apartment properties of 100 units or
more that are generally newer. However, older apartment
properties that are structurally sound and well positioned
in the applicable Bay Area region are included as well.
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MARKET OVERVIEW
The following are highlights from our research of the four Bay Area counties as
of January 1997.
ALAMEDA COUNTY OVERVIEW
- Average rental rates from the survey were $1,060 or $1.28/square foot.
- The highest average rents were in Fremont with an average rent of
$1,141 or $1.45/square foot.
- Rent increases for 1996 were 8.87% and were up significantly during
the first half of 1996 increasing 5.93%.
- Union City experienced the largest rent increases in Alameda County ,
which increased 13.13% during 1996.
- Vacancy rates increased from 1.44% at year end 1995 to 1.50% at year
end 1996
SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY OVERVIEW
- Average rental rates from the survey were $1,456 or $2.03/square foot.
- Rental increases for 1996 were 17.14% while rents in San Francisco
increased by 11.18% during the first half of 1996.
- Vacancy rates decreased from 2.30% at year end 1995 to 0.23% at year
end, 1996.
SAN MATEO COUNTY OVERVIEW
- Average rental rates from the survey were $1,345 or $1.68/square foot.
- The highest average rents were in Redwood Shores with an average rent
of $1,672 or $1.92/square foot.
- Rent increases in San Mateo were the largest of the four counties
surveyed at 12.88% for the first half of 1996, and 21.06% at year end
1996.
- Vacancy rates as of year end 1995 were 1.04% and had increased to
1.43% by year end 1996.
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SANTA CLARA COUNTY OVERVIEW
- Average rental rates from the survey were $1,366 or $1.59/square foot.
- The highest average rents were reported in Mountain View with an
average rent of $1,491 or $1.73/square foot.
- Of the four counties surveyed, Santa Clara reported the largest rent
increases at 16.46% for 1995. Rental increases through the first half
of 1996 were up 12.04% yet by year end the rent increase was 15.87%.
- Vacancy rates as of year end 1995 were 0.36% and have increased
slightly to 0.82%.
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EFFECTIVE RENTS
STATUS OF EFFECTIVE RENTS
The following table reflects the weighted average effective rents for
institutional grade apartment properties for the four counties surveyed by Ann
Roulac and Company and outlined below. The weighted averages were calculated
based on the total number of units in each county.
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RENTAL RATES AS OF JANUARY 1997
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RENT RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
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COUNTY MIN MAX WEIGHTED MIN MAX WEIGHTED
AVG AVG
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Alameda $1,032 $1,088 $1,060 $1.24 $1.31 $1.28
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San Francisco $1,252 $1,660 $1,456 $1.74 $2.31 $2.03
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San Mateo $1,295 $1,396 $1,345 $1.61 $1.74 $1.68
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Santa Clara $1,307 $1,425 $1,366 $1.52 $1.66 $1.59
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WEIGHTED AVERAGE $1,222 $1,392 $1,307 $1.53 $1.75 $1.65
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The following table reflects the rental range of the weighted average effective
rents for institutional grade apartment properties for the cities within the
four counties surveyed and outlined below:
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EFFECTIVE RENTS AS OF JANUARY 1997
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RENT RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
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COUNTY / CITY / # UNITS MIN MAX WEIGHTED MIN MAX WEIGHTED
AVG AVG
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ALAMEDA COUNTY (7,940) $1,032 $1,088 $1,060 $1.24 $1.31 $1.28
Dublin (1,421) 1,038 1,090 1,064 1.18 1.24 1.21
Fremont (2,140) 1,103 1,178 1,141 1.40 1.49 1.45
Hayward (2,023) 916 985 951 1.08 1.16 1.12
Pleasanton (1,804) 1,073 1,095 1,084 1.25 1.28 1.27
Union City (282) 970 995 982 1.38 1.41 1.40
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SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY (6,563) $1,252 $1,660 $1,456 $1.74 $2.31 $2.03
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San Francisco (6,563) 1,152 1,660 1,456 1.74 2.31 2.03
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SAN MATEO COUNTY (5,199) $1,295 $1,396 $1,345 $1.61 $1.74 $1.68
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Daly City (396) 1,149 1,149 1,149 1.60 1.60 1.60
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Foster City (2,480) 1,370 1,478 1,424 1.63 1.76 1.70
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Pacifica (580) 1,028 1,172 1,100 1.40 1.60 1.50
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Redwood City (452) 1,507 1,620 1,564 1.95 2.10 2.03
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Redwood Shores (185) 1,574 1,770 1,672 1.81 2.03 1.92
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San Bruno (606) 1,080 1,105 1,093 1.39 1.42 1.41
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San Mateo (500) 1,310 1,460 1,385 1.64 1.83 1.74
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SANTA CLARA COUNTY(12,189) $1,307 $1,425 $1,366 $1.52 $1.66 $1.59
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Campbell (608) 1,307 1,390 1,349 1.47 1.56 1.52
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Mountain View (1,190) 1,455 1,526 1,491 1.69 1.77 1.73
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San Jose (4,252) 1,210 1,433 1,322 1.37 1.62 1.50
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Santa Clara( 3,097) 1,345 1,416 1,381 1.62 1.70 1.66
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Sunnyvale (3,042) 1,346 1,393 1,370 1.61 1.67 1.64
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TOTAL 31,891
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RENTAL RATES
The following table reflects the weighted average effective rents for
institutional grade apartment properties for the cities within the four counties
surveyed and outlined below:
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AVERAGE EFFECTIVE RENTS
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COUNTY / CITY 1/1/95 1/1/96 1/1/97
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ALAMEDA COUNTY $913 $962 $1,060
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Dublin 925 969 1,064
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Fremont 976 1,048 1,141
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Hayward 855 868 951
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Pleasanton 909 974 1,084
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Union City 829 868 982
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SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY $1,149 $1,243 $1,456
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San Francisco 1,149 1,243 1,456
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SAN MATEO COUNTY $1,047 $1,111 $1,345
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Daly City 905 968 1,149
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Foster City 1,057 1,175 1,424
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Pacifica 868 879 1,100
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Redwood City 1,079 1,180 1,564
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Redwood Shores 1,306 1,363 1,672
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San Bruno 889 953 1,093
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San Mateo 978 1,108 1,385
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SANTA CLARA COUNTY $1,006 $1,179 $1,366
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Campbell 869 1,191 1,349
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Mountain View 1,083 1,259 1,491
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San Jose 989 1,156 1,322
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Santa Clara 1,014 1,189 1,416
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Sunnyvale 988 1,168 1,393
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NOTE: Data through 6/30/95 for Pacifica and San Bruno were not used in
calculating the San Mateo County average due to incomplete information.
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HISTORICAL RENT INCREASES
RENT INCREASES FOR INSTITUTIONAL APARTMENT PROPERTIES
The following table reflects the rent increases for the 100 institutional grade
apartment properties for the four counties surveyed by Ann Roulac and Company on
both a periodic and annualized basis:
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RENT INCREASES FOR INSTITUTIONAL PROPERTIES
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ANNUALIZED PERCENT
INCREASE INCREASE CHANGE INCREASE
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COUNTY / CITY 1/1/96
1994 1995 TO 6/30/96 1996
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Alameda 2.00 5.26 5.93 10.19
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San Francisco 8.72 8.12 11.18 17.14
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San Mateo 3.90 5.97 12.88 21.06
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Santa Clara 4.00 16.46 12.04 15.87
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WEIGHTED AVERAGE 3.62 10.99 10.49 16.07
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Source: Ann Roulac and Company, January 1997
The annualized rental increases were calculated by multiplying the monthly
increase by twelve. The largest average increase occurred during the January
1996 to June 1996 time frame. The rental rate gains through 1996 were most
substantial in the county of San Mateo, with an increase of 21.06%, followed by
San Francisco with an increase of 17.14%, Santa Clara with an increase of
15.87%, and Alameda with an increase of 10.19%.
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Ann Roulac and Company
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The following table summarizes the rent increases for the institutional grade
apartment properties surveyed by Ann Roulac and Company for the counties and
cities outlined below:
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RENT INCREASES FOR INSTITUTIONAL PROPERTIES
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ANNUALIZED
INCREASE INCREASE INCREASE
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COUNTY / CITY
1994 1995 1996
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ALAMEDA COUNTY 2.00 5.26 10.19
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Dublin 1.08 4.71 9.80
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Fremont -1.22 7.23 8.87
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Hayward 5.78 1.45 9.56
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Pleasanton 3.36 7.10 11.29
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Union City 4.70 4.67 13.13
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SAN FRANCISCO
COUNTY 8.72 8.12 17.14
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San Francisco 8.72 8.12 17.14
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SAN MATEO COUNTY 3.90 5.97 21.06
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Daly City 0.22 7.06 18.70
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Foster City 4.44 10.92 21.19
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Pacifica n/a n/a 13.64
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Redwood City 1.88 9.11 32.54
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Redwood Shores 8.12 4.36 22.67
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San Bruno --- 7.11 14.69
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San Mateo 3.76 12.98 25.00
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SANTA CLARA COUNTY 4.00 16.46 15.87
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Campbell 4.00 13.46 13.27
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Mountain View 0.02 15.59 18.43
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San Jose 0.00 16.14 14.36
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Santa Clara 5.40 16.65 19.09
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Sunnyvale 5.60 16.33 19.26
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Source: Ann Roulac and Company, January 1997
NOTE: The annualized rental increases were calculated by multiplying the
monthly increase by twelve.
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HISTORICAL VACANCY RATES
The following table outlines the annual average vacancy rates for eight Bay Area
counties from the database of 1,280 apartment properties of 40 units or more in
size in the San Francisco Bay Area reported by RealFacts in their December 1996
report. The apartment properties surveyed are representative of the market as a
whole, and include both older and newer properties.
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HISTORICAL VACANCY RATES FROM REALFACTS
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BAY AREA 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
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Alameda 4.57 4.65 4.70 3.54 3.00
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Contra Costa 4.48 5.69 5.24 5.09 4.30
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Marin 3.04 3.79 2.53 2.56 4.50
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San Francisco 5.50 4.55 4.00 2.35 2.40
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San Mateo 3.13 3.48 3.17 1.94 2.10
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Santa Clara 3.66 3.82 3.48 1.47 2.30
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Solano 4.13 5.18 5.71 5.02 6.20
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Sonoma 3.29 4.33 4.93 3.09 3.00
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Weighted Average 3.98 4.43 4.16 2.87 3.00
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Source: RealFacts, December 1996
In order to compare the performance of institutional quality apartment
properties to the market as a whole, we have analyzed the vacancy rates for
institutional grade apartment properties in the four surveyed counties. The
results indicate that the vacancy rates for institutional properties have
decreased by approximately 0.15% in the last year from 1.14% in January 1996 to
0.99% in January 1997, and are lower than the apartment database surveyed by
RealFacts.
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The following table reflects the vacancy rates for institutional grade apartment
properties for the four counties surveyed by Ann Roulac and Company:
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VACANCY RATES FOR INSTITUTIONAL PROPERTIES
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COUNTY 1/1/95 1/1/96 1/1/97
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Alameda 3.34 1.44 1.50
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San Francisco 4.13 2.30 0.23
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San Mateo 3.67 1.04 1.43
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Santa Clara 3.80 0.36 0.82
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AVERAGE 3.66 1.14 0.99
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Source: Ann Roulac and Company, January 1997
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VACANCY RATES
Apartment vacancy rates for the institutional grade apartment properties
surveyed by Ann Roulac and Company in the cities within the four surveyed
Counties are reflected in the following table:
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VACANCY RATES FOR INSTITUTIONAL PROPERTIES
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COUNTY / CITY 1/1/95 1/1/96 1/1/97
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ALAMEDA COUNTY 3.34% 1.44% 1.50%
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Dublin 1.34% 0.35% 0.91%
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Fremont 5.53% 1.98% 1.62%
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Hayward 3.51% 2.13% 1.48%
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Pleasanton 2.44% 1.05% 1.44%
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Union City 1.42% 0.35% 3.90%
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SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY 4.13% 2.30% 0.23%
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San Francisco 4.13% 2.30% 0.23%
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SAN MATEO COUNTY 3.67% 1.04% 1.43%
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Daly City 8.84% 0.00% 0.25%
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Foster City 2.57% 1.49% 1.85%
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Pacifica 1.11% 0.00% 0.15%
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Redwood City 3.98% 0.44% 3.32%
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Redwood Shores 2.70% 0.00% 2.70%
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San Bruno 4.29% 0.96% 0.00%
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San Mateo 5.73% 1.40% 0.80%
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SANTA CLARA COUNTY 3.80% 0.36% 0.82%
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Campbell 5.00% 0.49% 1.48%
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Mountain View 3.44% 0.00% 0.59%
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San Jose 4.93% 0.56% 0.45%
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Santa Clara 3.91% 0.36% 1.20%
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Sunnyvale 2.89% 0.20% 0.92%
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Exhibit I
County and City Summaries
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Ann Roulac and Company
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Bay Apartment Communities, Inc.
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Exhibit II
List of Apartment Properties Surveyed
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Exhibit II
ALAMEDA COUNTY
DUBLIN Amador Lake
Amador Oaks
Cotton Wood
Dublin Meadows
Parkwood
FREMONT Alicante
Creekside Village
Hampton Place
Mission Wells
Red Hawk
Sun Pointe Village
Pathfinder Village
Sun Pointe Village
Watermark Place
Willow Creek
HAYWARD Barrington Hills
Clarendon Hills
Hillcrest
Mission Heights
Summerwood
Waterford
Wimbledon Woods
PLEASANTON Civic Square
Hacienda Commons
Hacienda Gardens
Springhouse
Stoneridge
UNION CITY Veranda
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SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY
2000 Post
Bayside Village
City Heights
Filmore Center
Fox Plaza
Golden Gateway Center
Oakwood
Post Street Towers
Portrero Court
RinconTowers
South Beach Marina
St. Francis Place
South Beach Marina
Village Square
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SAN MATEO COUNTY
DALY CITY Seramonte Ridge
FOSTER CITY Beach Cove
Foster's Landing
Franciscan, The
Harbor Cove
Lantern Cove
Sand Cove
Schooner Bay
Shadow Cove
PACIFICA Fairmont, The
Lands End
Sea Ridge
REDWOOD CITY Harborside
Redwood Shores
REDWOOD SHORES Indian Creek
SAN BRUNO Evergreen Ridge
Skycrest
Treetops
SAN MATEO Creekside
Lakeshore Landing
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SANTA CLARA COUNTY
CAMPBELL Canyon Creek
Cedar Glen
MOUNTAIN VIEW Brookside Park
Greendale
Heatherstone
Park Place
South Park
Villa Mariposa
SAN JOSE Bramblewood
Carriage Square
Colonnade
Countrybrook
E'lan at River Oaks
Ellmar Oaks
Fairway Glen
Fountains at River Oaks
Foxchase
Greentree
Kimberly Woods
The Redwoods
San Marino
Willow Lake
SANTA CLARA Alderwood
Bella Vista
Boardwalk Lakeside
Los Padres Village
Mansion Grove
Marina Cove
Marina Playa
Park Central
Timberleaf
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SUNNYVALE Briarwood
Bristol Commons
The Cascades
The Grove
Kensington Place
Lincoln Green
Macara Gardents
The Meadows
Mission Pointe
Parkside Commons
Shadowbrook
Summerhill Park
Trellis Square
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Exhibit III
Rental Surveys
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Exhibit III
Alameda County
Rental Surveys
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Exhibit III
San Francisco County
Rental Surveys
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Exhibit III
San Mateo County
Rental Surveys
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Exhibit III
Santa Clara County
Rental Surveys
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Ann Roulac and Company