Reference is made to Outlook under Part I, Item 2, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in the Quarterly Report on Form10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2019, and to Rates and Regulation under Part I, Item 1, Business; Overview and Outlook under Part II, Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations; and Note 2 – Rate and Regulatory Matters to our financial statements under Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, each in the Annual Report on Form10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018 (“2018 Form10-K”) of registrants Ameren Corporation (“Ameren”) and Union Electric Company, doing business as Ameren Missouri (“Ameren Missouri”), for a discussion of the rate orders issued by the Missouri Public Service Commission (“MoPSC”) in March 2017 and July 2018, as well as Ameren Missouri’s intention to file a request for an electric service regulatory rate review with the MoPSC in 2019.
On July 3, 2019, Ameren Missouri filed a request with the MoPSC seeking approval to decrease its annual revenues for electric service by $1 million. Ameren Missouri’s base rates for electric service, which were last reset on April 1, 2017, and adjusted by the July 2018 MoPSC order, are required to be reset at least every four years to allow for continued use of the fuel adjustment clause (“FAC”). This filing, which includes a request for continued use of the FAC, allows Ameren Missouri to meet that requirement while also providing flexibility to time its next regulatory rate review to include wind generation investments expected to be made in late 2020.
The rate request is based on a 9.95% return on common equity, an estimated capital structure composed of 51.9% common equity, an estimated electric rate base of $8.0 billion, and a test year ended December 31, 2018, with certainpro-forma adjustments expected through an anticipatedtrue-up date of December 31, 2019.Pro-forma adjustments are also expected for fuel, transportation, Midwest Independent System Operator, Inc. (“MISO”) multi-value transmission project expenses, and payroll costs through an anticipatedtrue-up date of January 1, 2020.
The electric rate decrease request reflects:
| • | | decreased net energy costs of approximately $100 million otherwise subject to FAC recovery; |
| • | | higher weather-normalized customer sales volumes, which reduced the rate request by approximately $55 million; |
| • | | decreased expenses, other than net energy costs, of approximately $20 million, which includes a decrease to those expenses subject to regulatory recovery mechanisms of approximately $80 million; |
| • | | increased depreciation and amortization expense of $115 million for new electric infrastructure investments, of which approximately $35 million reflects higher depreciation rates and of which approximately $35 million would otherwise be deferred under plant-in-service accounting (“PISA”); and |
| • | | an increase of approximately $60 million of pre-tax return on rate base, which includes both the debt and equity components, of which approximately $30 million would otherwise be deferred under PISA. |
Ameren Missouri also requested continued use of the regulatory recovery mechanisms for pension and postretirement benefits, uncertain income tax positions and certain excess deferred taxes that the MoPSC previously authorized in earlier electric rate orders.
The MoPSC proceeding relating to the proposed electric service rate changes will take place over a period of up to 11 months, with a decision by the MoPSC in such proceeding expected by late April 2020 and new rates effective in late May 2020. Ameren Missouri cannot predict the level of any electric service rate change the MoPSC may approve, when any rate change may go into effect, whether the requested regulatory recovery mechanisms will be approved, or whether any rate change that may eventually be approved will be sufficient for Ameren Missouri to recover its costs and earn a reasonable return on its investments when the rate change goes into effect.
Forward-Looking Statements
Statements in this report not based on historical facts are considered “forward-looking” and, accordingly, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Although such forward-looking statements have been made in good faith and are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that the expected results will be achieved. These statements include (without limitation) statements as to future expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, events, conditions, and financial performance. In connection with the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, we are providing this cautionary statement to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. The following factors, in addition to those discussed under Risk Factors in the 2018 Form10-K, and elsewhere in this report and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, could cause actual results to differ materially from management expectations suggested in such forward-looking statements:
2