2019 Half Yearly Financial Report | Other information for US investors
Risk Factors
An investment in Santander UK plc (the Company) and its subsidiaries (us, we or Santander UK) involves a number of risks. A summary of the material risks are set out in the ‘Other information for US investors’ section of the 2018 Annual Report on Form20-F. The principal risks described in these risk factors remain unchanged, except for the risk factor entitled “Exposure to UK political developments, including the ongoing negotiations between the UK and EU, could have a material adverse effect on us”, which has been replaced as follows:
Exposure to UK political developments, including the ongoing negotiations between the UK and EU, could have a material adverse effect on us.
On 23 June 2016, the UK held a referendum (the UK EU Referendum) on its membership of the EU, in which a majority voted for the UK to leave the EU. There remains significant uncertainty relating to the timing of the UK’s exit from, and future relationship with, the EU and the basis of the UK’s future trading relationship with the rest of the world.
On 29 March 2017, the UK Prime Minister gave notice under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union of the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU. The delivery of the Article 50(2) notice triggered a two year period of negotiation to determine the terms on which the UK will exit the EU and the framework for the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
The Prime Minister presented to the UK Parliament the Withdrawal Agreement, which set out the basic terms of the UK’s departure, as agreed with the EU. However, it has thus far proved impossible for the Prime Minister to secure a majority in the House of Commons to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement and as a result, the PM agreed an extension to Article 50, meaning the UK is now scheduled to formally leave the European Union on 31 October 2019.
There is a possibility that the UK’s EU membership ends at such time without reaching any agreement on the terms of its relationship with the EU going forward, and currently the Withdrawal Agreement, which provides for a transitional period whilst the Future Relationship is negotiated, has not been ratified by the UK Parliament.
Following her repeated failure to gain the required support for the Withdrawal Agreement, Prime Minister May resigned both as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson was appointed as Prime Minister with effect from 24 July 2019. There is still the possibility that Prime Minister Johnson will be unable to secure support for his proposed approach within the Commons, which could lead to a General Election being called in order to secure a mandate from the electorate. This could cause significant market and economic disruption, which could have a material adverse effect on our operations, financial condition and prospects.
The continuing uncertainty surrounding the Brexit outcome has had an effect on the UK economy throughout 2019. The economy started to contract in 2019, with manufacturing in particular struggling. Consumer and Business confidence indicators have continued to fall, for example, the GfK consumer confidence index still remains negative at-13 in June 2019. This has had a significant impact on consumer spending and investment, both of which are vital components of economic growth.
The outcome of Brexit remains unclear; however, a UK exit from the EU with ano-deal continues to remain a possibility and the consensus view is that this would have a negative impact on the UK economy, affecting its growth prospects, based on scenarios put forward by such institutions as the Bank of England, HM Government and other economic forecasters.
While the longer term effects of the UK’s imminent departure from the EU are difficult to predict, there is short term political and economic uncertainty. The Governor of the Bank of England warned that the UK exiting the EU without a deal could lead to considerable financial instability, a very significant fall in property prices, rising unemployment, depressed economic growth, higher inflation and interest rates. The Governor also warned that the Bank would not be able to apply interest rate reductions. This could inevitably affect the UK’s attractiveness as a global investment centre and would likely have a detrimental impact on UK economic growth. The current Brexit Secretary of State also warned thatno-deal could lead to a recession.
If ano-deal Brexit did occur it would be likely that the UK’s economic growth would slow significantly, and it would be possible that there would be severely adverse economic effects.
The UK’s imminent departure from the EU has also given rise to further calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence and raised questions over the future status of Northern Ireland. These developments, or the perception that they could occur, could have a material adverse effect on economic conditions and the stability of financial markets, and could significantly reduce market liquidity and restrict the ability of key market participants to operate in certain financial markets (for more information, see the risk factor entitled ‘We are vulnerable to disruptions and volatility in the global financial markets’).
Asset valuations, currency exchange rates and credit ratings have been subject to increased market volatility as the negotiation of the UK’s exit from the EU continues as a result of Parliament’snon-ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement. The major credit rating agencies changed their outlook to negative on the UK’s sovereign credit rating following the UK EU Referendum, and that has not changed. In addition, we are subject to substantialEU-derived regulation and oversight. Although legislation has now been passed transferring the EU acquis into UK law, there remains significant uncertainty as to the respective legal and regulatory environments in which we and our subsidiaries will operate when the UK is no longer a member of the EU, and the basis on which cross-border financial business will take place after the UK leaves the EU.
Operationally, we and other financial institutions may no longer be able to rely on the European passporting framework for financial services, and it is unclear what alternative regime may be in place following the UK’s departure from the EU. This uncertainty, and any actions taken as a result of this uncertainty, as well as new or amended rules, may have a significant impact on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Ongoing uncertainty within the UK Government and Parliament, and the rejection of the Withdrawal Agreement by the House of Commons, and the risk that this results in the Government falling could cause significant market and economic disruption, which could have a material adverse effect on our operations, financial condition and prospects.
Continued ambiguity relating to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, along with any further changes in government structure and policies, may lead to further market volatility and changes to the fiscal, monetary and regulatory landscape in which we operate and could have a material adverse effect on us, including our ability to access capital and liquidity on financial terms acceptable to us and, more generally, on our operations, financial condition and prospects.