As of December 2024, national office vacancy rates remained stable at 13.9% compared to September 2024, while our market areas reflected the following vacancy levels: Springfield, Missouri at 4.2%, St. Louis at 9.7%, Kansas City at 11.2%, Minneapolis at 11.5%, Dallas-Fort Worth at 18%, Chicago at 16.7%, Atlanta at 16.7%, Denver at 17.2%, Phoenix at 16.7% and Charlotte, North Carolina at 14.5%.
As of December 31, 2024, the U.S. retail market was in one of its firmest fundamental positions on record thanks to steadily rising demand and limited new supply. However, there has been a sharp uptick in bankruptcies and store closures. At that date, there was just 501 million SF of space available for lease across the U.S., which was almost 125 million SF below the amount available for lease during the height of the pandemic.
As transaction volumes trended higher, the rise in cap rates was settling down. Higher exit caps have made it more challenging for developers to meet their proformas and an increasing number are choosing to hold instead of taking their assets to market. The shift in cap rates over the last two years was evident in the trend of single-tenant investment sales of net leased properties. Fewer buyers were in the market, and investment opportunities continued to expand. Unanchored and open-air shopping centers have seen cap rates above 7%, occasionally climbing into the 8% to 9% range, depending on market specifics and the quality of the asset. However, the limited new retail construction and historically low availability rates should limit any potential surge in vacancy rates in the event of a demand pullback.
During the fourth quarter of 2024, national retail vacancy rates remained steady at 4.1% while our market areas reflected the following vacancy levels: Springfield, Missouri at 2.0%, St. Louis at 4.2%, Kansas City at 3.8%, Minneapolis at 2.5%, Dallas-Fort Worth at 4.5%, Chicago at 4.6%, Atlanta at 3.8%, Phoenix at 4.9%, Denver at 3.8%, and Charlotte, North Carolina at 3.1%.
U.S. industrial market performance continued to downshift in the fourth quarter of 2024. While the national vacancy rate is not expected to rise above its 20-year average of 7.0%, forecasts for 2025 could still prove challenging for the market. Net absorption has remained positive but continued to lose steam, with early 2024 registering the lowest first quarter absorption tally since 2012. Net absorption for 2024 was 101 million SF compared to 133 million SF for 2023. This weakness tied partly to recent 12-year lows in home sales, which lowered sales of furniture, building materials, and appliances, leading to large distribution center closures by tenants including Big Lots, Ashley Furniture, and Home Depot.
The prospect of escalating tariffs at home and abroad could make retailers hesitant to expand distribution networks until the threat of additional trade barriers dissipates. Significant tariff increases would also force retailers to raise prices, decreasing the volume of goods consumers are able to purchase. During November 2024, the CFO of Walmart, the third largest user of U.S. industrial space, noted that tariffs “are inflationary for customers” and that “there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers.”
The U.S. industrial market is nearing the end of a record development surge. Higher interest rates have caused construction starts on new industrial projects to fall over the past two years. Quarterly net supply additions are on pace to fall below the pre-pandemic three-year average by mid-2025 and continue declining through at least 2026 when supply growth is set to hit an 11-year low. A gradual but persistent decline in speculative development completions has already begun. As of December 31, 2024, the amount of vacant space among existing Phoenix logistics properties 50,000 SF or larger has increased by 35 million SF, primarily due to speculative development since 2019 pushing the vacancy rate among these buildings over 19%, while another 11 million SF worth of unleased space remained under construction.
Nationally, year-over-year industrial rent growth decelerated over the past 12 months to 2.3%, a rate which was below the pre-pandemic five-year average. In the near term, it is expected that rent growth will slow further in both the small bay and big box logistics sectors. If net absorption can gradually increase, there is potential for rent growth to reaccelerate and return to the pre-pandemic three-year average of 5.5% by 2026, given the limited amount of new supply that will likely be on track to be completed during the year. However, big box logistics properties in markets most saturated with speculative development such as Austin, Indianapolis, Greenville/Spartanburg, Phoenix, and San Antonio are most at risk of lagging in any developing rent recovery, either due to slower asking rent increases or lingering, high levels of concessions.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, national industrial vacancy rates increased to 6.9%, from 6.8% for the third quarter of 2024. Our market areas reflected the following industrial vacancy levels for the fourth quarter of 2024: Springfield, Missouri at 1.6%, St. Louis at 4.0%, Kansas City at 5.2%, Minneapolis at 4.0%, Dallas-Fort Worth at 9.6%, Chicago at 5.5%, Atlanta at 8.1%, Phoenix at 12%, Denver at 7.9% and Charlotte, North Carolina at 9.2%.