Earnings call transcript Q4 2022

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Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Northern Oil Fourth Quarter and Year End 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Infurna, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Evelyn. ahead. go Please

Evelyn Infurna

and Good XXXX Paul. closed, welcome our fourth to released Thank conference morning call. quarter quarter the for earnings financial market XXXX. Yesterday fourth our you, results and fiscal after we the

presentation You Relations our will filed website release within SEC XX-K Investor with Form on the can our a earnings access be our and and few days.

Dirlam; EVP Chad morning by Evans. Nick Chief President, Adam Officer, Allen; Jim NOG's O'Grady; Officer, Financial our Executive this and Chief here Chief joined and I'm Engineer, and our our

through Our answer agenda overview will prepared our accomplishments, the any on for Chad financials to today's as executive our the an be follows: remarks, walk available our recent operations. of call questions. quarter XXXX will provide Nick is review guidance. then our discuss quarter will on After his will team And Adam remarks fourth and and

the be These may uncertainties be Before language. our cause SEC, these reports include, of our are contemplated remarks obligation forward-looking our we could me the forward-looking Act. and by any within Securities the different XX-Q. discussed from the Annual update expectations Safe our the including matters risks XX-K to statements. among Those Report subject to Form Form quarterly that our release including go statements. statements to our that actual further, our meaning any Private We materially as with in to filings risks Please Litigation earnings that advised others, forward-looking results cover on in have we on disclaim statements answers well Reform as your forward-looking Harbor let today, and include questions,

adjusted measures including and discuss financial be measures, net GAAP found cash measures our closest Reconciliations to we certain flow. can call, release. adjusted may today's these of income in earnings During the free non-GAAP EBITDA,

the to call I Nick. With over turn that, will

Nick O'Grady

Thank you, Evelyn.

tremendous NOG on Evelyn markets amounts and NOG excited to her take welcome Evelyn the relations to experience, to to like comes board. and I'd investor moments with team. we're of have a few to capital

down get weather, delivered points. I'll annual results severe quarter business the fourth within the prices commodity million key of and generated right, it $XX We lower fourth in approximately strong. and fundamentals and Despite the we to full five strong quarter, with still year. production cash one, All in guidance. Number are we're

back we is online driven and activity momentum strong December. As turn-in by QX, the entered building in line business

January, busy of closed Number incredibly than acquisitions in million for reduced and two, diluted three Midland XXX growth XXX we transaction. million closed over translate represented these In Petro share in closings XX% into total, should which more production year-over-year on fourth of We our on announced our growth. The and quarter in Permian in was over a account. XXXX, company. on first week the the acquisitions

roughly This all era XX% energy impressive a XXXX, public in is growth in companies. low growth the for following more are given we most

differentiated positioning and Gap] As to NOGs stage best the significant in record, to and insight sets an capitalized proud XXXX. track non-operator absolute the preferred we are the and private upstream [Audio public partner superior data outperformance be relative with unmatched the largest, community. for

our We enhancing our improving footprint, our of diversifying portfolio have company balance quality strength and and the transformed the the by meaningfully of growing sheet.

XXXX. pressures, flow cash strips, inflationary production generate commodity and Despite lower significant and to expect we current in growth

and and insights consistent driven multi-year efficient sophisticated capital formation have we and to data prudent underwriting superior expect equity drive will continue disciplined Our outperformance. transaction and

XXXX the three, outlook. Number

new stage cashflow for increase and of generate Petro expect year. reflects growth, enhance Midland will into delve elevated significant Chad to At we the significant in growth differentiated growth baseline conservative and level further XXXX, assumptions, Our sets in the mentioned cost later company's XXXX our which cash in the the capital I coming shareholder flow free project as enabling to completion, inflation cash and a and accelerate years, guidance, levels efficient the just volume us substantial production, as returns. free it of flow reaches throughout

advantage. XXXX. in our Number believe competitive advantage We has competitive four expanded

rebuilt analysis. last but augmented four we've also the the of positions data the in continuously and invested Over years, improve to improved not strength the our our only infrastructure, asset company financial have science technical

efficiency value powered tools. With of the the launch in our of enable to further proprietary in will accuracy expect decision-making. enhance our data, specifically, January, further enhance enhanced the analytics we More properties us power management efficiently risk believe find our and system differentiated purpose-built, of AI our and our we to

its team underwriting us rest and compete scale, advantages. can we non-operated in on largely to not for the properties few that We high-quality sphere target our allows field us scale the own. in unmatched Our with are our we daily on data believe that play analytics believe does and laurels we and our a given

competitive for our basis, has widened. both Basin a expanded us, As and the as breadth from of advantage only opportunities structural

returns. Number five shareholder

goal total is our the possible the provide Our shareholders with long-term. over to highest return

repurchase common a high-cost increasing including the debt, shareholders. and programs, implemented cash share have approach, We multi-pronged repurchasing dividends for

debt continued fourth stock beyond. repurchase we repurchases our throughout common we the allow, opportunities to and continue common will as market opportunistic tactically buybacks XXXX During senior quarter, notes and and

plan the XX% stock share introduced our for about share to announced in dividend first weeks and $X.XX the our accelerate a ahead increase common two ago, quarters of to per few $X.XX dividend A to a target quarter further per of schedule. quarterly we

valuable dividend and our and of yield investors. providing is consistency growing over We strongly have the more goal We our continue value the for long-term. shareholders equity a believe our that the an to quarterly to attractive of stable

should to also give current bolt-on shareholders growing allow retain opportunities. to to us our and ability cash pay healthy, income strategy our the acquisitions excess and provide Goldilocks added both value Our significant for for growth flow

leverage Going levels. news to overall shareholders, driving our The and return is highest and focusing forward, deliver we positioned management yield flexibility continued over business able for while the still the we to returns, our responsibly room on tax being the focused scale good with to on of the leaving ability for growth remain strength, total efficiency capital and time. to anticipate optimal business

XXXX evolutionary NOG and from accomplished. the to their NOG work was recognize leap they for another hard top and for always I bottom to dedication team forward want

to always time that, we want as I'll In company for you are you closing, the to all I listen do, run I'll thank a call I And the to that remind today. by us for investors taking investors. turn over Adam. With to

Adam Dirlam

Nick. Thanks,

development the off transformational On and both operational to trajectory 'XX. and into look we another fronts, growth year continue our finished business

net completions return quarter mix lines and the to forecasts fourth split. for internal the nearly relatively Williston balanced as XX:XX a our turn-in beat In XX Permian as accounted we and added wells a

approximately While results in XX,XXX initial internal December production barrels impacted weather a winter day. outperforming were by production estimates,

As we of quarter. much expect first return, of to normal benefit our fourth the the operations into quarter moving receive adds

ahead, loaded turn-in spuds back with front-end line the completions of anticipate half we further typical toward schedule, weighted a and the Looking year.

weighted expect for the with project net new in That added Given ducts. the of half back mascot equally accounting across XX.X Marcellus Williston wells pull the the year net in now And our Permian finished to completions WIPs, forward our roughly of for 'XX, wells, be process the of totaling XX% well process during we excluding in with our accordingly, drilling January. wells and said, activity in XXXX. levels X.X our the closing Williston we

as focus continue back Marcellus, higher acreage properties, oil to we to have ways activity the other deferred year. through trades, look In we on exposure of margin the and XXXX potentially half the to most add for but means in

XX%. XX continued healthy as of improve IRRs remained to core acreage the organic of increased focused consent our quarter, on saw wells. our over relative disciplined, net the our our proposals. our during as AFEs also of we to QX staying we for a Economics proposals on roughly well accounted operators QX and over basins led by XX% respective combination XXX The well rate received to acquisitions approximately estimated which

we service As that creep costs expect a with We conversations in Williston from which about in broadly has and operators encouraging with dated contracts going roll as some our think have aligns see lowest the had do long our inflation, we've some off. forward, seen deceleration to the of been it well cost operators.

Permian, an minimal at estimated AFE year-end increases results inflation steadier midpoint. in to those We the increase indicators edge XXXX, offset over carry an kept leading X.X% has the anticipate has from our at by modest. a overall This state which in been inflationary which into

impactful As The with acquisitions QX in work Nick in completed alluded as to approximately Permian. most top-tier history. for was some in extremely exposure to busy earlier, the quarter the acres and team the company fourth of the XXXX the deepened to QX of has of our inventory, M&A addition million XXX close net development business we

XXX XXX high barrels approximately of game Overall, increased proven XX% to future Petro reserves, closed the acquisitions ground low our our our recently exclude acquisition. and reserves million inventory, oil activity our the net that added an and to closed XXXX impact breakeven estimated year Note net end equivalent. to quality, Midland which of locations

strategy. provide Petro returns. capital showcased northern ability evolution and best-in-class M&A in Midland creative while operating our our The transaction important an for represents to scale solutions partners generating

operators we the co-bid approached acquire as On by assets. well development and assets to joint find have solutions development our as been trying and agreement, desired announced existing partnership multiple for operated opportunities of heels plans, to

acquisitions. to few a the non-operators Not help sheet and pursuing needle one scale the of only are we with scale, large move balance

the in partner at have us. These We underwrite advantages assets, also opportunity in alongside low insights time operators and competitive our the NOG partner. data set to as participate of established brought choice have available a and conviction to operated pursuing with same maintenance the as a

As XXXX are billion more packages, joint spooling $X operated opportunities. reviewing non-operated the development and and is packages we M&A we move than in into backlog

than consistent prospects and changed. remain our our to are ever on laser there approach have to not We ground focused our While available game. us, capital more colors allocation

XXXX closed wells, we transactions. X.X our net quarter, XXX efforts X.X net on fourth game acquiring the wells, net XXXX over finishing, across XX In acres ground net and acres and

of portfolio program respective capital across an basins. already and seeing will As we employed. on ahead on compelling maintain return our our superior in to the order look actively variety graded And we we build XXXX, opportunities are drilling high to a manage

that, I'll With Chad. turn to over it

Chad Allen

Thanks, Adam.

start the I'll of the impact across despite results, which the key reviewing winter recent solid board quarter by were storms. fourth

XXXX. average to daily of compared a QX production Our increase day, QX XX,XXX per BOE XX% was

after up were X% QX over storms. and sequentially normalized have winter volumes the Well

in Our for company. and adjusted EBITDA was top record for a million the our billion X QX, XXX.X year,

growing fourth has XXX flow XX robust year. quarter activity. cash free at which cash despite generated almost than prior XXXX, in more was we the doubled flow And Our of million free million

have and roughly and to QX came internally in barrels Our differentials towards in were again which strong typically in adjusted $X.XX in tighter. basin expected continued $X.XX XX% pricing barrel, are than year-over-year. priced Oil up share at more per due was QX, EPS per weighted Permian, the better

For were in year, but the were lower the by over record differentials prices expectations. low North company, fourth XX% our gas of and our than internal WTI, sequentially the diversification a Dakota improvements for business $X.XX differentials for benchmark several the our Natural years. quarter, better of last driven the off

Lower XXX% of NYMEX. prices NGL absorption function reduction the lower natural gathering the drove and uplift, a lower cost average and gas for NGL of yearly

XXX.X On CapEx invested we between has been evenly basins. million during split the Permian and the robust. the quarter Activity Williston front,

As lines quarter as momentum third Adam strong from enter turn we dramatically the provide XXXX. up before mentioned, were and

along forward resulted of of high investments. pull ground the of to inclusive mascot the XX.X game our and has contributed in of spending project has D&C a net List continued success capital our return the wells with This

We sheet quarter our offering in recent notes acquisitions. remains balance to fund closed The the convertible part, million fourth $XXX strong. the in

there to be may As the due will manage selected, zero this holders. dilution options is, to existing has And you that potentially time. extent to over to to features there recall, minimal our we company the the

expand X.X notes our our convertible In to facility capacity billion. from of borrowing the addition revolving base credit reflecting growth X.X billion able the the billion to to offering, $X XXX from on million, to we're

over will well our leverage we flexed fourth but comfort our sheet within announced As modestly the activity, transactions next higher the a in quarters couple the quarter. our And of zone. for be M&A our balance result

operations, leverage over unused billion revolver and by based the net capacity. should dry We powder borrowing normal of XXXX, delever. form able still Our in end as remains return our to strong. of have ratio organically and the acquisitions of to our $X to we're Liquidity levels contribute

form provide continue hedging will In participating ways XXXX, XXXX our report, million if to opportunity we retired XX.X of rally. we last and optionality of we that to market the of downside prices the reduce leverage the collars costs for since With added our in of look attractive notes, upside protection opportunistically respect arises. volumes in efficiently to with

strategy from our each to add basis. conservative XX-month to pending expected on XX% a acquisition production based XX% continue hedging of rolling closed and on volumes We of

run of approximately XXX million of in XXXX As and XXXX XXXX million service cost approximately pertains our guidance from million half a XX% inflation. to spend largely approximately CapEx to to range plans from million it perspective, of [indiscernible] This XXX for of to Capital guidance, from XXXX acquisitions year. over. to the of carrying translates rate we the with XXX XXX million a occur XX million layered XX our CapEx in will first total overhead annual expect

expect natural expected is is reduction stays to appears do trend decline in reoccur be XX that the associated the six of the count, a rig the savings place. is XX to We if see cost with in to nine specifically out to in inflation in could the XXXX. the in only point out in first of current want half down peak from United and in our million XX We to prices to XXXX. project that States lead build approximately of continued approximately months subsequently to mascot overall which beginnings But what gas the million

shoots tubulars, all in Additionally, costs or towards we've added year pumping reduction green as sand an capacity, and progresses. seen debottlenecking pressure the stabilization

quarter with per average we QX, for the rate XXXX day target at of quarter full of quarterly fourth start per day. of should in our production XXX,XXX year XX,XXX to XX,XXX a XX,XXX year. XX,XXX an BOE the expect range exit to Regarding XX,XXX a each and translate Overall, the production to to guidance, improving BOE day BOE per range

in the With the and conservative see to winter typically guide the end a first of quarterly Williston. respect quarter, given seasonal we organic declines

and exit. that in in a of pricing. natural expect throughout higher drive basin oil the we given strong typical we're activity Differentials, gas However, view, do year taking conservative to prices downtick recent the volatility

G&A that for believe and potentially the We and consistent LOE there's should operating year for company public room be and as costs. adjusted XXXX largely improvement inflation goes on. with

I'll turn the call for that, to Q&A. operator the With over

Operator

[Operator you. you. Instructions]. Thank Thank

your Neal is Dingmann with with Our first from Security. Truist question Please proceed question.

Neal Dingmann

additions and 'XX potential my your question, for sort modeling this should of CapEx spend there'll maybe how be minimum or in year? do asked Nick, another CapEx amount this of we the you specifically, about transactions least trying that first just all capital game should model on Chad, we're versus put assume is think pre production a your to ground really we at and post expectations to speak maybe way,

Chad Allen

room We always flex our guidance CapEx in or leave capital.

actively on Whether game year. in So we against wait the not, is that in, the we game it door, so so we of use to what that portfolio sales out, manage proposals they're And day [indiscernible] the in, returns day are there. depends meaning opportunities expected really can the it another. one ground times that's we're throughout spudder compare the that the in or ground come seeing

every opportunity we to say, and so able program we get ground on take if game, and reiterate, we'll any in they're our year, it, drilling year grade done. flex know, to other amount. do. the And base but have I opportunities budget hefty that And our if what as depend you high advantage like it'll may I'd pretty again, a amount definitely compelling we're the we through budgeted modify forward, to for

Neal Dingmann

you recently just second Adam, Bakken or I'd a call than I for [indiscernible] have then more add, ago, all I how and wondering, you proposals, no less a just basically because stable thought -- okay. is really all on the if haven't become volatile. Okay, plans that more asked activity. year becoming the because did, you I'm gas so receiving very upgraded And are of guys obviously, lot getting gas what have maybe --

and bit and recently. maybe And seeing become volatile. the you. more have some a more Permian just stability, wondering proposals Thank I'm are other just wondering you're if how Bakken versus plans

Adam Dirlam

Yes.

XXX I received think think those the fourth that. out I Williston. you plus were we about nailed XXX And quarter of AFEs, the in in

looking kind about so, And XX% process at right the kind of year, we're are the oily our of in of if at that's end the wells now. of basin, looking that makeup,

humming kind operator we the well. add and with so rigs along. And the makeup They see certainly Conoco. that to of likes compelling [indiscernible] as we're of partnering continue is and And

So we've the been activity encouraged phase. by

Nick O'Grady

are, say probably on forth stable. Neal, a big year. We're not have Williston in to based not, I measure just put the by Yes, would this remains today I we or that Basin pretty whole going it record as say would guidance Williston volumes grows a probably whether or the our

Adam Dirlam

And and significantly larger That's year. I beginning working working the think of the we've that we're it's of here operators, interests right. the stepping concentration with a function into the our got interests some at of

Operator

question Markets. Our with next RBC from is Scott Capital Hanold

Scott Hanold

at say, to I quality going where this activity, this your context have? upside, one, like, give Can and place? to advantages do maybe potential more factors bore that coming, I to you your versus sounds in system. the having all And pace? do, what sort Would think, full change now, have game like your made this a right new this see you know us what of you when acquisition what are maybe with you be it ground if, back on, of looks just it you did in does way AI but they strategic system underappreciated you is now? some you do to going don't And think on

Nick O'Grady

at that the basins all-time from out Yes. is volume multiple if of standpoint, strategic I especially a branched an coming opportunities at different us into mean, high. we

And with volatility needs operators, evaluations to socialized, truly appropriately. that got fact allocate a and capital and grade the quickly, you've in got prosecute to the ebb these the commodity north you and have standpoint, all that information plus able as And pressures and do high be conviction. XXX be it as we've well so got to from when order needs us inflationary that we've that flow, done for be -- it to of to

truly the that we're as and by information data public real-time do to take AI checks, the one revenue coming harness that truth. source so all program, have the the the through as and all that instituting [indiscernible] well with and we And data able of

so as the look as key to the be on taking backs that's transactions. well, you the to our know, And success, going various

I of recently, kind terms and think we X% about did to just of one acquisitions, were in we recent the major original X% of within underwriting.

Jim Evans

what color massive, only Williston bore through what now minutes but and The that gross take to of Being well I secret it's been the would XXXX got can you can in drilled And engineering wellbores you we add has of database success, point take business. the the every been past. at means would always access full in half have this to our speed team data the in right? harness that is, to come week a always knowledge, the it our Yes. of

Scott Hanold

Okay. to That's good hear.

where And pieces it. next went announced me prices are patient entrance and gas all I the And a back for about look stands into so, a I then if question out to natural about the to now couple XXX. today, Appalachia, if guys thing me just XXX. to But like, And you if that you is, there's because to when you with were can made back, acquisition, as be gas they obviously prices first that XXX. think my second

of kind make they're that acquisition. environment where this all ripe in look you it expected. Do the things in made for there two, at mean, But a when move? to think scale justified originally plays gas versus that Do A the from And you of did. think on do Two you it opportunities? in new acquisition. when to you number back step you I like an production do back a where it. the you sort definitely it competitive returns was make ability that returns Marcellus more down your was yearly, still So does you economics?

Nick O'Grady

Yes.

to of of even our got inventory Scott, hedging year, in we all meaning money one I has in the back it So one the mean, transaction, that owning year latter of paid we XX it, point, net all and on years did it. out

goes, it been than thought, slower better the at say, pace the we the what well but performance been slightly So XX% the cost time, I pace structure has at would which we same and underwrote. or than has XX%

done So a better. net-net, we've lot

to so, economic to I to it were this have is really not year think truly we're developing is We don't, us, we're our option. it properties thrilled I at important that that's And in it develop don't gas. $X call that also gas is development because while a And really XXXX. thrilled we really today, want

to back of there's M&A does returns but convexity we agnostic, more are going But I larger a and question. basin the said fuel matter.

pretty early For if example, buying adjusted there's you're $XXX a risk, a oil was last And that to go versus more go ultimately, back wrong return unattractive assets right. goes it properties can XXXX. hedging at on year than in bought because we that lot to risk buying when has more us lot a even buying And at gas the XX. it

pertains it on gas looking day at attractive. out. gas a gas, that current assets the so at us to that would And say as play actively is certainly would and day appears we're to it term And in role convexity very I longer properties

Operator

with Johnson next One. Capital is Philip Our from question

Philip Johnson

Chad. for Question

realizations the 'XX. You mentioned weak you're expecting for gas that

pretty from of That's one saw we operators. similar what to Williston yesterday your

lower to guys obviously weak pretty coming to prices. big obviously two-stream component guess XX% of report here. I of a there's And driver, relative prices. NGL the seems course, there's NYMEX into realize are that's NYMEX XX% But a But, play on fixed You low. the

year, give a what's as in is you wondering And lower what insight if NGO addition on little to the just there. maybe I'm to more us So versus about, year last prices? can different driver this

Chad Allen

Yes.

that currently down below I to in seeing even that we're we're now with at months of right pickups we or sit. seeing currently we're But currently from what us up some where below is guess, probably creeped in to think kind past we're those, XX%. that -- realizing I respect

think, kind more the I conservative, into, with obviously, think, of respect realizations we're the to struggles is being kind takeaway going I where some guess of And I XXXX. of also gas gas of to bit prices. creep in with Permian, a that's

Nick O'Grady

Yes. price I to goes kind down, have fixed extract like, then right? the mean, basket, move. so whether that there's the And economic of plants it's chess, where swings the your you cost, on gathering it have wellhead the yields larger You price plants the gas not which because But percentage. do, want actual ethane of from getting the or changes from the as wildly, NGL pipe four-dimensional doesn't to that of depending becomes it. is to what meaning, a

people anyway. some And do it

them but is nameless, whether people We do will some leave it it or not.

prices I You thing down first obviously. you're And gas the about, think think you're three-stream although to the in came losing but -- reporter, in quarter. get though, in money. more fourth really But is a NGL, quarter, prices came volumes, down if you then that the

example the from versus about And perspective, fourth was it's and actually, a in so the a quarter, over one gas one quarter is today. two ratio propane to an but it

actually that helps So the percentage.

record crystal it. as much because the taking a really, because conservative, by there's want -- particularly that the Chad NGL run really And as And by you -- past, But terms run don't there in conservative some tried I gas room so if update costs are we've mentioned you to is of benefit think comments, there conservative we're we we'll accordingly. versus in impacts historically tried the been really to throughout to year. gas But of have natural anything And us we for no it. I non-controllable bullish. the wouldn't this very the where so is that these look are going. be improvement that a at and we we're doing at don't say in do here we there his some prepared in absolute our ball internally price not track

Philip Johnson

Yes.

Okay. That's helpful.

just magnitude On maybe XX-month come years? approximate past wondering or And, down just if the are you relative reserve oil a to in and decline looking guess, little share us and I what is, next but changed for gas. the rate both PDP so. that's can your of I'm where couple how for you for assuming report, it's bit, the

Chad Allen

Yes.

to So year. Obviously, base sorts be these the the start will acquisitions, we as low some declining, increase throughout the XX%. XXs those on to PDP to is are go projects, decline our of in of going we bringing and things XX% MPDC right through year,

be out exit going we of XXs mid-XXs kind the as that's of probably So year, we're to but closer to where starting range, that to kind high and we're today.

Operator

Instructions]. [Operator

America. question John Bank of is with from next Our Abbott

John Abbott

of going question. think with First rate, for sort little you forward? came How do about DD&A inappropriate DD&A Cascading a high bit just the fourth quarter the mergers closing.

Chad Allen

were this around think, when roll PDC, And looking DD&A. that in morning. I think we're for and we at XX.XX kind of right we just exit John, Yes, I sitting

add MPDC or a two think buck will likely I it. to

would once XX.XX guess. are we XX.XX probably I get think So rolled I somewhere range, to in the that in,

John Abbott

And just you assumed? -- it. you Any got what that questions Appreciate you in on the activity them levels surprises? originally pleasant here. Any, just just you're the on second sort of Any the versus acquisitions door? changes then, in closed

Nick O'Grady

like, morning, aggregate, start few we assets like look are And actually this first, in and Yes. we this did small Midland anecdote I a well. are ahead we I to a back schedule performing acquisition maybe well. anecdotes just exceptionally and in October the that of first closed mean, really think our performing

say and will geology. we underwrite change But and to pivot, anything, non-operator, like conservatively just this the you depending on As environment. a have good on focus

they so should resilient. And be relatively

while any XXXX. around move ultimately, schedules we don't expect think there, major in so drilling and surprises I here And

Operator

Markets. Our from Donovan next with question is Northland Capital Schafer

Donovan Schafer

you given I way Is at any all to of you embedded but preceding you or cadence. Yes, ask in -- through high activity, we terms an that $XX of looking a activity early at that I you too definitely about XX? part? I'm if wondering see outlook know much you're get one assume on just of that acreage? just kind hold price, in that something XX XX growth the can to maybe you see of in is, want an XXXX. is and you Or all quarter need in specific level we Did at your four over if the constant? the talk would to expect something Obviously, acquisition additional it Do and higher proactive roughly, first XXXX on this broadly assume The moving would activity quarters? this growth that for I oil XX guidance some things rigs terms level, over did, translate of any into had guys' kind know, you've including kind that that there when incremental to in of M&A like of just growth in as type leading

Nick O'Grady

highlight year Yes. the to keeping from activity I hold a -- second that for [ph] you I XX,XXX a and of wells mean, if next MPDC that to Jim We need activity, off flat, wrote is you're costs about is as [XX] the year, earlier, XX,XXX your say way effective And at the rate some some time. a to year guidance a XX,XXX higher growth. highlight our in that is, that as as But of do we and we barrels point Donovan, this be the this over barrels that we see that to spent simplest this a you exceed of levels kind to zenith. we what we roll try think assuming, project out certainly to same would day obviously, day, constant for but going little earnings of obviously, that public a decline completes. and bit kind base pointed bit little obviously above of reach presentation, going

our And so this $XXX sort But underneath million of sustaining to obviously, those you're year. talking is capital about $XXX million guidance of like XXX-ish more levels. that

going year to carry too, to continue one those about you So So those the you grow, really spending you're to say, year. a because I that if at when year one forward into talk you're matters, barrels right? to will that cadence of going levels,

that dollars but all good some goalposts are you. be for not So should equal,

Donovan Schafer

that bit in when you I that's Yes, it of haven't I seem bit a wouldn't or then, shale And that knowledge -- fit conventional U.S. plays. in like these don't of second ever a question. or I things international. real to into There And And but know to gotten to this opportunities are a still building onshore taking little -- there. oddball if for then, get curious you core question, while, another Gulf build great. am positions or outside know very have Okay, base. of if moving would And yet helpful. somewhere Mexico some knowledge. somewhere a probably differentiated you certainly competency, of start an might could like know you non-op course, I you Canada have consider But

knowledge that you of stepping to dabbling base. And a into you these think of that. so some I'm just about degree to just other curious how know about little doing build just small think if curious areas, a I'm like out

Nick O'Grady

I think email an don't so. made will But agree, answer past and of the Well, it seen think they've I way, I we've on is, never question. Canadian mean, oddball is inbox. a I the opportunities that handful our

seriously the I over within think in you're just United you been those We States right? years team need we that, this to we we've elsewhere. And think, is before And take acres, focused pride, this XX do well, which if shopped bought technical are one, great we the do and seen Permian it technical having opportunities our about is and we've I to conventional simply, country. this take really something, two so spent going knowledge. in

good to we're what on so want we at. And focus

that's say outcome for relatively a probability us. I'd low So

Adam Dirlam

little Yes. guess a differently. it frame to I up bit

out we In terms basins we're that at look we've most of resources that's a compelling basins the the the not the to significant going into Haynesville, other look I not that in even need rate in that. us going M&A we're we're looked to landscape, XX. stepping in. to to at that basins, the at dedicate think I already think the opportunities say you're And within the canvassing currently we are have those Eagle Ford, we've lower in any Because regard, within to different to to order for that of DJ, seeing interesting that's hurdle basins looked but be have

take standpoint, basins keep the shale think continue to even other ear be and look then, to our I we'll but these And to have a at so a ground to from it's higher going a bar.

Donovan Schafer

you. helpful. Thank That's very Okay.

Good guys. me, for that's know. touch And point me. that of thank to Thanks, driving it good a home, Just for kind you. point so

Operator

Our from Brothers. with next is Parks Noel Tuohy question

Noel Parks

as attractive that outlook Start with see things, you was to hear of longer-term making is those at and certainly properties. pullback you assets gas say this very looking with couple interesting you're the

sort So that gassy concentrated saying versus do issue you I'm do your of the evaluation incrementally model? how just infrastructure you sort wondering, into do more you and fit How of uncertainty? assets process, weight getting of your as

Nick O'Grady

think we I we I all that underwrite some number price there. pick to, think to certainly goes it don't these I the it in one -- don't esoteric we mean, mean, things. gas should go

the to infrastructure on underwrite world that you're important. stress in say by them You further. living that really then now, I'd is based have and

the has not it's example that tight. underwrote an punitive through years, went I'd the Appalachian that just we as ran example, last in, as given We model were say in infrastructure use analysis, in using that. Just observed, we've pretty materially, growth, our then, the basins And where, gotten really infrastructure few that constraints certainly Haynesville we when grown the within base. we when differential never properties.

were when We the the looking Permian, same we the also did in same thing. thing recognizing

short-term actual operate long-term We've to impact what suffered is infrastructure value basin views we through so analysis on things. on And thing in meaningful and constraints the those the to key sometimes have the every what's And going what's and and a our understand in. differentiated properties. factor internal of

Noel Parks

more in weight Got other on little gets Appalachia a or going for touched wondering, this the enough. Are you bit just to you places you. refers before. path to what if non-consent --on of example, And Fair on maybe apologies you've gassier.

Chad Allen

Yes. more a completions that have we of it's I [indiscernible]. but the there mean, program environment, happenstance with in Appalachia, the And than year. function are multi-year good gas is a this no news

CapEx, may end of the drilling plan a XX some we year, we prepare expend CapEx the the be at ton. So as but minimal for there'll not

Nick O'Grady

term longer much it's Yes, planning.

day, lever non-consent on going I think a to but we're and not pricing, end or have obviously, how the not And shop, going stickies, be pulled may getting and commodity see pulled on that is right? getting really an and to interacts who stays going driven if at depend there's that, are, so may hurdle you our inflation to gap depending of inflation because things And the the meet we're the with down IRR, operators or commodity prices. then rate.

core. terms The is most relatively the think sticking that good news of in disciplined operators to

buffer And got so that of science versus cycles you've lot some the I past. regard, a think that in experiments we've in seen

Chad Allen

that, to Yes. the largely We on like, And into delineation came made. elaborate Permian as the later example. just where Noel, has been an

not my position, as And the areas so own see a ton to to of you [indiscernible]. we're don't have some have developed. subject large that we of a properties non-core And we a we to They're be to really things Williston because now. in of advice, well legacy being just lot non-core, acres going those are

for are the And us. operators some work the ways in so it allows doing

Operator

Ladies the sir. Over question-and-answer to I'd and now session. our to Nick call gentlemen, closing turn like for have remarks. back we of the you. Thank you reached to end O'Grady, CEO

Nick O'Grady

on We'll for next quarter. work XXXX we'll everyone, plan you see Thanks, the really and today. on us to joining the hard execute

Operator

digital Thank XXX-XXX-XXXX this XXXXXXXX. repeat conference. please the XXXXXXXX. and XXX-XXX-XXXX enter access replay, you. dial I today's concludes or Ladies code and access To gentlemen,

time You may for participation. you disconnect and lines thank this your at your

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) 24 Feb 232022 Q4 Earnings call transcript