MOS - Earnings call 3 2023 | The Mosaic Company

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Operator

Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, today's event is being recorded.

Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

Paul Massoud

to quarter welcome earnings and you, our XXXX third call. Thank James will chat Executive Q&A. be comments O'Rourke, and provided open fireside Opening a by Chief by Officer; then followed President. Bodine, Bruce Officer; Vice and President, Executive Strategic also questions. answer will available Marketing Wang, Freeland, Clint Global Chief Financial Senior and President Vice to your be Jenny

beliefs uncertainties. financial include, yesterday Actual not limited management's differ to, will that materially forward-looking materially in with during filed expectations statements based are and We our statements and results. this conference and projected are to about today's could but are in those future results. and in the of forward-looking our Commission. be reports results Factors may making call. operating Securities differ from They are These risks date the statements to subject as results published cause statements and Exchange on release actual and included from significant press

financial We will also be non-GAAP presenting measures. certain

and performance important press information Our measures. non-GAAP data release these on contain also

like I'd over to the to call JOC. turn Now

James O'Rourke

Good joining quarter call. earnings our morning. for XXXX third you Thank

get of moment but last pride years, we next this the focus lead most generation leaders. of We've discuss the to Before that announced our forward call, of identifying to X tremendous of I and over month, year. this at I incredibly the step has and talented on team. work the Last our organization we developing is outstanding at to accomplished for a the next in company. amount the honor It talent take one take to plan normal I'd like end an our retire to a part the been areas

on of of selected X, Bruce efforts, January those President starting XXXX. Mosaic's be Directors As and appointed next Board CEO result a him to Bodine Mosaic's

several President and most Bruce with America. Mosaic company of Senior recently as Vice is our led for XX who's including veteran, across North functions the a years been business,

board for exhaustive team been he's for makes the throughout role and leadership our selection a ideal senior major establishing candidates. Mosaic's strategic of succession the Please member external Bruce's lead person in experience, organization, my some played The future. leadership years, has the last congratulating mindset a into to time. evaluation As takes priorities. seriously internal me X for strategic retirement an and planning him and Bruce's join the Bruce. of both follows in broad Mosaic current

Bruce Bodine

January a the a industry. lay you, to Thank I'm the global as is excited like to JOC. next in future. in and Mosaic moment the leader to for vision my take I'd take fertilizer step CEO, out

Over the built last specialty few years, investments shares. being our most expanded efficient we of portfolio value-added outstanding our the and billion most long-term were we debt by while made footprint in reducing complexes. agricultural regions, repurchasing $X world's one were world's of have our potash and production grown of the These important fertilizers XX%

ahead, we value for shareholders. Looking our will creating continue

a purified phosphoric Board We're has battery investments further the and for With work expansion iron discussions Mosaic products. continuing of acid and engineering Riverview pushing with in at engaged commercial on market value-add Biosciences, manufacturers we're We're MicroEssentials battery to explore phosphate also ag we've the in into auto production. already the made and our plant. non-commodity capacity approved entering lithium

are Palm northern mills debottlenecking adding fast-growing Across business, Esterhazy a we're facility country's the our at expanding Meranti In and our the in region X Brazil, in In Brazil. low-cost by we're pursuing further supplier fertilizer, distribution the even tonnes facility Mosaic of very and is XXX,XXX million-ton already of optimizing results production. we with footprint high able potash, largest program means be our XXXX drive for to of at in which enterprise a are segment global are least million, and expect SG&A. improvements significant cost savings These reduction be modest which digital to returns, our investments $XXX Operational high watermark with very the our acceleration spending. throughout we capital you'll to expected see all in further initiatives.

be value. XXXX. continue by shares returning for to and CapEx present repurchases This down $XXX up for very his it dialogue broader markets forward us Next discussion cash through million to and with this from I'll compelling to you. We our allow I to year, look of believe final we JOC will hand now, all on shareholders total But to dividends. our expect continuing to all results. back share excess

James O'Rourke

around constrained. is is world, exacerbated Thank world, lows keep ratios but crop Australia. remains for Today, the agriculture an impaired market highlights the conditions security which in grain being with production. up across having demand. persistent Global fertilization. have markets, Today's around Southeast concern patterns by major developing El struggling are and and particularly The historic the you, is Nino Weather Food impact weather situation under supply Asia to stock-to-use Bruce. crop oilseeds tight. a is production is near

being X last consumption the yields. with growing significant relationship flare-ups we've the in war insufficient is nutrient years, see regions Over geopolitical disappointing by all-out case key the and to course, Ukraine. impacted are as begun between and of And a war,

the poor Over to down applications. grain the reduced other offset will weather to how and given be and last shortfall, fertilizer exports years, XX% difficult pre-invasion oilseed see from levels. able Ukrainian X are regions It's

demand order sales record world of a XX% remaining has beef levels, on and a soybeans, China's rice global supply. places strong. adequate which exports ensure rice duty around non-basmati for domestic remains India, of production of levels. reduced nearly limited ban in import to its are trade, Despite rice on wheat accounts white and the portion at

and through now walk Additionally, elevated X/X represent mean U.S., demand soybean to These aviation consumption. persist will diesel and yields. dynamics and seeing fuel. biofuels of sustainable prices maximize from renewable In crop could emerging beyond, we're growers the XXXX

other from from Soviet port potash, Belarus in continue to the of impacted former behavior. other market. and it disruptions remains disruptions us to its limit and producer potash Lithuania, is locked sanctions being exports weather access by brings Supply evolving Union. phosphates for This fertilizer forcing sanctions, find to and In outlets the shipments.

China, in well XX X.X of from ports below to Belarus tonnes. have X million or expect though exports range exports tonnes, to that and those in be million of into remain we rail Russia by range via the expect in increases This levels pre-sanctioned XXXX. million year, shipments of shipped limited total we Some

in further XX the disruptions. farming. supply In lost isn't In addition East, XX to simply and be to the is the in because expected Canada, strikes, to shipments in Middle million tonnes, More congestion made in of global the meet ability the the are recently, Ukraine, ongoing range FSU limited supply rail repairs total, West's labor terminal mitigate conflict risk potash have war to tonnes. where to of demand markets up there particularly subsistence in supply additional of primarily crop the million developing highlight

largest X fertilizers, XX In level. China's industrial to million grew This million million last finished significantly away X to exports. or be roughly million agriculture of the about phosphates, to could of the shift estimate months, from has X XXXX. and exporter phosphate of below tonnes a export in decade, markets, tonnes China to the XX% the supplying market over reduced restrictions last XX.X production tonnes. seaborne the over exports million of XXXX But fertilizer year, X be phosphate we

spring the slow strong market. out farmers in favorable seeing side, returning. On slow the depleted North the reserves this to brought economics to We start in play consumption back saw the After demand are America. a and season, we

X great fill Our Mosaic's X This last American through a months phosphate summer was and by application followed America last years. North for potash program highest were a very in fall a the potash North shipments shipments. strong were in record The October the season. and

That fertilizer ended very We strong. being similar up saw for play in dynamics out shipments season Brazil.

of full inventories expect to Brazil low will quite fertilizers tonnes, in to total in history. to second XXXX. total replenished the million With we For year, in the complete, Brazil be and for XX highest be are XX need shipments million fertilizer destocking

elevated straight we most ground. drive to of are the India, which near going price low to low very acceptance inventories forward. of are the indications range, suggests X-year higher that see shipments shipments Potash demand we're levels Phosphate In inventory driving seeing imports. going are and end continue the recent also strong could

quarters pricing begin to seeing and markets. once move, dynamics These available now, stabilized and the volumes in Mosaic's have prices We're highlight follow. has now volumes that of move value For will several portfolio. discussed many shown we seasonal strength

America to to and well was value meet business Esterhazy's Our the North the demand and is sales our plant positioned of beginning to reflect customer shareholders. Colonsay strong In that meet impact quarter at in turnaround, volumes restarted the quarter. results of the mitigate third needs deliver potash,

of range tonnes and expect fourth $XXX million quarter ton. to X.X per mine potash we $XXX prices sales in ahead, volumes at MOP the the netback million Looking to of X.X

American overseas Our North product winds application fall mix season pricing sales shift guidance down. a reflects towards as

and restart storm. disruption we Hurricane completed in quarter. we at Those In recovered of utility that third quarter. a the following phosphates, power Idalia, minimized through in X by the are repairs be approximately late Faustina we're the our the should local facility fourth of occurred quickly Louisiana able the from operations in impact working to which Separately, the days, really in impact repairs the

ton. the the We million X.X to of $XXX quarter plant X.X and at expect fourth range DAP gate be of per in prices $XXX sales volumes to tonnes, million to

Brazil. to Moving

Our Fertilizantes segment reported strong third quarter results.

And high-cost destock this the first was that completed the emphasize quarter. early of we me inventory second effort Let half XXXX. to in in pushed

Our you this the from distribution longer others pressures business our are, that can as quarter. is see experiencing same results no

and we margin expect committed range in XX% ton. For and to the our over already volume the quarter, fourth our of quarter position, book sales our inventory $XX per is With to priced. be fourth order $XX of distribution

in Our remain to sheet to a and approach not changed. maintaining our committed allocation returning business, capital We shareholders. has investing balance strong capital to

XXXX total spending for expect up to Bruce billion by we is to million. to earlier, $XXX billion. as reduce XXXX budget CapEx for mentioned Our And $X.X $X.X capital

shareholders is of $XXX have Year-to-date, shareholders nearly in quarter. million the sheet unchanged. be to remains commitment our returned to buybacks. excess strong, share and third dividends, capital to $XXX dividends will All cash balance repurchases and buybacks and million we through returned through Our return including

benefit look to seeing uncertain Before watching to fertilizers and while we to world positioned to maximize good and into let Mosaic while shareholders, yield supply want is we go and the Bruce with business. are channel without we're it the more questions, to Farmers summarize. economics continuing is supply good low. value crop future. to needs fertilization. significant lead deliver still in and inventories but Mosaic get investing returning The capital well won't forward are I me

let's move Paul, to over questions.

Paul Massoud

on Before live we to Q&A. move

some materials earnings last we our quarters, common night. questions we like in published As of after the most address we've done past to we'd received

question, recent For rulings JOC, our our first duty us asked discuss to many petitions. regarding countervailing have

James O'Rourke

of but Commerce are Department the their raised duties week, of a Department Commerce product, of Yes. duties The on on lowered based subsidies. Moroccan on and on yearly Last basis supply. foreign Russian it reviews assessment are done

to pricing use from result we While aggressive as market, to product. based due out compete years, and of a continue field. market, return needs. for harm consumers to that government supply, that we global flows their we subsidies highest And a ensure the unfair their global fair tight foreign to on these industry. unaffected. when seek particularly players trade and seek need But strong level welcome will saw Unfair may suppliers such, will to dynamic, remedies high shift last supply China. In the meet U.S. competition, over demand Pricing sufficient foreign is expect so X demand supply will subsidies for our cause to today's a as we decreased disturbed adjustments. marketing continues In on playing as

Paul Massoud

Mosaic of and in year your quarter. destocking but been Brazil, the have in the Mosaic's rest in for third Brazil with from And struggling quite outlook differentiates what XXXX? JOC, Fertilizantes business others others? in well performed What is the

James O'Rourke

year, on to XXXX, destock And Brazil, range increase further our who the like of back we're year. $XX $XX and and were When in with able half reliant quarter, in quarter, distributors deal the demand had Brazil expect with effectively prices had expected to per distribution the margins in stabilized XX% priced slowed in on inventory the demand. of and agricultural the others carrying left ability their of returned $XX third-party we, the others other we with In our third We, have destocking mentioned, the in the half to directly that unlike to expected second we're hand, of support industry, to the they inventory. But ton. we first inventory. product the as retailers, limited are to to $XX And ton. higher-priced fourth committed margins the I to per by

risk some business. is distribution there in always the Now positional

which we our input effectively believe have value integration us the of and as this really distribution as production volatile and market the However, businesses. ag possible, sets managed emphasizes apart through companies. other from I of

Paul Massoud

is Pricing over JOC, next the has How potash muted on the been you see our despite do uncertainty. market question the evolving next market. year? supply potash

James O'Rourke

Thank you.

from there and relationship you've we underapplication yields. As seen below-trend potash published between slides night, the and is phosphate clear a last of

and recognizing Now is farmers rebounding. retailers demand and are this

As we've demand volumes this this pattern past, and follow. move said in out prices returning. volumes saw the returns, global year play with We

Jenny, XXXX? volume volume we expect the rebounds a walk through potash in can us why you and higher

Jenny Wang

JOC. Sure,

by led X America strong tonnes broad-based in of are million XX recovery very We seeing market. recovery tonnes. are we which is forecasting to million demand North It XXXX,

and empty strong we seeing in-season to spring And a America. new we still We're field for again. ton price application. this application have for then tonnes Midwest And have the in application North summer for us buying for channel. full a We warehouses increases per realized application, very the these having customers $XX very had for replenish strong are tonnes,

the -- North to into farmers application. The seen a with start very for very come corn there strong opportunity application soybean fall more in strong for strong America, potash by about application the we put a market. similarly are window in which to recovery has that to delivery season, gives ] for And that Brazil, down sets is crop market a which soon. big for summer believe the buying the X [ Brazil have months safrinha we planned

a terms there's China. is security we concerns the probably the food commodity by potash world potash in record to are that of as in and China, of prices application imports this And has XX% the across strong And the China well. very seeing interests also And to consumption, the of there year. driven domestically,

in that So with to demand sits which continue this major XXXX XXXX, well into broad-based to going growth are see market demand recovery. we

been as of the last lastly, and farmers years. down And inventory farmer Malaysia a potash with price, has potash the very high-priced which come reengaging And program the have as drought see in in And affordability working And through price, which out EU our prices usage going in supportive range impact palm in now and for to across starting Southeast from prepare potash, they Indian to been well. are and for Asia, of there they are under subsidy Indonesia, the are applied constructive of low farmer seeing that broad of their over throughout recovery the demand stabilized should the we XXXX. customers and lower X potash rice the oil XXXX. put we With is channel. to inventory we market. see of the boost world part to improved of very XXXX

James O'Rourke

Jenny. Thanks,

modeling We're from growth prewar XX% a have to some VolgaKaliy. we about Laos, supply pre-sanctioned of So we're shipments. growth. side, XX% Jenny expecting side. has expect in to recovered view Uralkali to recovery modest to the demand modest levels EuroChem's a and a of From In given from see also Belarus

fall So any overall, will because shipments. not of of is if because a lower there but we enough short, see demand supply. Not problem, these

Paul Massoud

followup Operator, lines for please open JOC. Thanks, questions. the

Operator

[Operator Steve with Instructions] Today's Byrne comes from BOA. question first

Steve Byrne

Are from production what's JOC. but you, the distribute pleasure maybe for I the right you a in into or what from XX% than contribution ammonia bit are roughly wanted -- been right? TSP Fertilizantes switching working purchasing fertilizer with more down production it's we your drill a we either little in-country phosphate cost your that your XX%. and volumes And would of reducing own that here. country, come greater that that prospects to production there? EBITDA the expanding to that assume And much is Is that

James O'Rourke

Yes. Steve. Thanks,

we other So chunk it system. we in market product, And goes in move good That of we to to integration, distribution our our what the the not is a business of benefits Brazil, our at through is the as through system. transfer estimate one while of about BXB course, players a production bad own price. can market, of own sell of a number XX%

the production keep general expect clean between for be would So as base TSP at be better such as possible. conditions margins we now under market would business try that would or distribution DAP. your That we X to they said, the for products than or least as

SSP product profitable would reason. As down there probably we be you that good our the say, least for make

so And looking better, how mix constantly it make more profitable. we're we we how make at product that

which or our in of And we -- well products. so again, feed there, dicalcium as can't ignore is, one return phosphate highest animal

area strong but to reduce we're looking So plan mix to cost down also optimize a whole of rates. got at. that We've production there

that her that Bruce working all be hard of all something in is team So Karen and be with and works that of and will Swager to accomplish. will

Operator

comes Richard Fargo. next our And Wells today Garchitorena question with from

Richard Garchitorena

So tonnes. my on year, to It do into Obviously, think like year? million with around strong heading wondering of I XQ the you're outlook operations question, production. you X.X X going in X.X potash. come million was to next looks your growth the for first just how million tonnes next guidance, about

expect do to grow that? levels grow keep How those with the you year, So are market? production next thinking them you about to

James O'Rourke

with we look Yes. also Thanks, on a at me Richard. discussion And let of little Colonsay. a that follow bit how

depending been demand. on at of of of uptick that a year, say, part efficiently, while to and of tonnes I think few it sort because demand. level we've particular. couple higher plant. strategy maybe For range the over thousand increasing rates, in up down expect it, of the maybe yes, to Esterhazy Canpotex been to question, first lower-cost meet Belle our able same us flex the a giving And and would the we ramp like looking But terms of our being somewhere next hundred full to years, swing production, in has Plaine ability last for run slight I Colonsay But the production the at in same we're able

and next go which if is ability you as demand or the tonnes, million and this question. year, have up we really think that is be year, spend, So you look where to we forward approximately, like down as we to from to to going the X.X certainly look about K-Mag. include the we'll going say, is either What

focus So American lower we market, best and Esterhazy to that imports American demand. Esterhazy's and next Colonsay, And Plaine, North Belle to sales see granular on grade demand, turnaround with Canpotex. where coupled we prioritize that the and needed the of always our our strong international then program we both North is increased year, This meant netbacks. meeting we offset focus meet

In shipments through we're fourth as markets global rebound. strong to expecting international the Canpotex quarter, continue

and same So -- need in to XXXX move grade to will their there. North be our KX stage, we replenish for expect about fully the capacity that as put about at the beyond, up would spring and the season. American half Esterhazy demand meet granular our and level. into ramped this second the we then so And project But hydro that inventory flow Colonsay probably optimize of addition will of us preparation --

taking manner market for variability seasonality account longer-term And in so and And reassess that at our the we'll with in and role as the always, to the need we're for a our into business. flexibility deal focused value, Colonsay. assets running on this to maximizes stage, have

So but in your about X% market, the is original just even year, year range, maybe at we terms question, good growing that. sales And grow X% which we'll volumes, or to we'll growing with if we in next with of And value-adding hold that sort that need same that kind up. Colonsay probably -- in variability run today, run are expect find a volume to for or of we being don't, if we we if that will we of more. where summarize the

Operator

comes with today Jackson Joel from question next our Markets. BMO And Capital

Joel Jackson

question I follow that got answered I'm you last because on to confused. up

is XX saying you is to tonnes. million demand saying grow tonnes X to potash tonnes going million for today million global you next XX year were So Mosaic think that

partner million million X Canpotex Your million tonnes, tonnes, to XX said great X growth. tonnes tonnes, whatever, XX million that's

the produce next X%, but about in says same answer year, more. market, might going X% you're Mosaic or grows Your but potash, then you with grow the that you which it said, to grows actually

you're to X, to going if the So tied tonnes question, who's is X Nutrien and tonnes? with supply X, million Canpotex going tonnes, extra to Mosaic X me million X million explain tonnes, million next you supply can't market the X this and year under offshore grow more,

James O'Rourke

said by Yes. you, what Well, the you in questions, for questions, thank way, I think exactly Joel. the comments. prepared the that's for I the Thank and

see So if million tonnes. we you another Belarus about to at expect this, out look bring X

add another tonnes. X But We we million expect to tonnes, if bring been VolgaKaliy and and VolgaKaliy, Uralkali their is at pretty XXX,XXX million between to then And which Usolskiy recognize up ramp-up. now mine, out XX EuroChem, another XX you're got satisfied I there, X saying. X probably million a tonnes between I X.X ramping you're with Laos, difference million that that's million tonnes million gap. mean what those and you're -- now slow would maybe, up that If has million And players that at Canpotex, that, then pretty and tonnes to tonnes tonnes which and likely probably from tonnes. much maybe for say was and X.X that's

be a Canpotex of XXX,XXX wouldn't share XXX,XXX for of we XXXX. point our Colonsay at tonnes, needed. that tonnes Otherwise, or Colonsay would which So need be would

but are those tons. see if they We out. bring I we'll we out continue based Belarus it better that do again, up Will expectations did it that these plays better than other plays think that's If players they expected. how what But think ramp? last unlikely, year, on those different,

continue. think tonnes am had with We very America is year, XXX,XXX any similar it has will to we're XXX,XXX a I the year North looking being in of this don't what and I exception inconsistency sure how it. probably at tonnage tonnes, there's good Canpotex. So for see maybe And

Canpotex the done needed levels all those mines then the market not never -- the because say well, the supported on market and year it, Last I logistics the year fires. that we've strikes. strikes. port had before X had we at We've or million floods, failures had is just million This can't It is of going last, and of one tonnes, we we the thinking we're haven't to jump tonnage just it the thing it. rail more isn't or port up supply had year, but And logistics don't had I -- has problems, will X ports, by think realistic. hasn't tonnes

So your how that to you I but you're try. know don't put to in have model, going Joel,

Operator

our Barclays. from Theurer question And Ben next today comes with

Benjamin Theurer

As all well peace. JOC, enjoy best the from side, retirement, my for that

and Now solution that clearly projects wanted the to something electrification on to of up frequently back into to LFP a PPA light my those some come comments made question, some investments, of for the looking go you more phosphate and you're I as the vehicles.

this into think what And much we CapEx that profile be this perspective? think help needs, to you Just would out? us you if can what's appreciated. maybe might like put about expected that the cost and build return of business? So That how positioned you're you the

James O'Rourke

I stage, Yes, phase early Okay. this a say, call feasibility stage Ben. this. so get Thanks, to all to moving final, do it, design to feasibility into at bankable a at we're the the, let's would

precursor a to cathode. so What far, building iron and looked plant, phosphate are lithium be numbers been potentially the phosphoric purified has we've at which pretty preliminary. for the though, a would acid So powder

of probably facility at So XXX,XXX the of range and at Louisiana phosphoric probably in looking our billion at our tonnes acid this build purified $X.X of cost to that. we're is stage, expectation

a have far over the first risk, so phase what for But seen we then And of cost per higher the expect demand can decreases we phases, Now at and well obviously, et if than market to obviously, pricing. ton look et cetera, future profile is long-term what cetera. capital got we've has return. and go we capital strong

for not for a And strong there perspective is phosphate though, view lithium only stationary to for cobalt, et nickel, particularly, solar early to vehicles electric a due growth to both iron exactly trend They electric and towards up of term, what vehicles wind. from the batteries, but is come these that make tend the of demand. engine, time stationary power batteries qualitative is while need expense the we're and seeing, our will cetera, will also same long variability you be at as the don't

to have some So buffering. have of level you

Operator

John Roberts at next Mizuho. And our from comes question today

Unknown Analyst

Slide wishes are and versus under looking the those key Bruce. the at Best is deck in yield. congrats, any takeaways application the in hand the that line from world X slides? I'm But JOC most quadrant. other Obviously, bottom there on of left is

James O'Rourke

and from takeaway I there key for my thanks the question. think John, perspective, again, the

any think really I saying the what in this feed relationship I they clear in a you so past, don't a is show to -- intuitively, guess, I But organism, is way. fertilization do is we long that for if time able don't growth. mean we've grow. been plant the drives what haven't been

potash here and probably both what we're yields soil, between the and of and Now those, particularly a seeing under the relationship mining clear usage. is application with of seen we've even phosphate

particularly Now includes which likely of at yields see hurting overapplication phosphate which when is Asia, India, of isn't more yields. at nitrogen really used and you first, you you be whereas to the in and actually see look all, helping where the nitrogen, potash underapplication the is

account And yield if about you of the do application take then into to it's a price phosphate and and yield math you loss. on those fertilizer at X:X look if potash loss, you things, the

on saving yield. $XX losing fertilizer, So $XX on you're in words, other you're if

their are here cannot afford to incented point and fertilize is continue properly to to they So the farmers field, soil. mine the

Operator

with comes our Morgan from Stanley. Vincent And Andrews question next today

Vincent Andrews

JOC, on all these you years. congratulations comments, the and echo a working me retirement let with And pleasure

bit I And there. are there. pretty and you're some were other business I question, rates on sounds season, of you're my of getting in comments just of made out comments of about it the optimistic more and that from versus application ask safrinha some terms good market Fertilizantes In the wanted like terms to maybe the Brazilian the intelligence that a your

growers be down advising to ground the and season? that suggesting and of on us some to off go on for you demand But shipments and But are the you talking seeing crops there associations the and planted can the are to so that about Or on of confidence giving this? going or back maybe that data is what's is inputs. corn. grower quite commentary the is Maybe some some strong about cover ahead acreage forth their

James O'Rourke

Vincent. bit. that Yes. I'm Thanks, little unpack one try Yes. to a

when the not we're look at So concern you I idea the that safrinha, I'm basis country global been that if think the the the for we is corn there, out market, probably the not farmers. out as market challenging, hurt it's cetera, It's the starting see economics basis to saying And availability into -- will. it you has head it's the that's concern some the to in unfounded transport the basis, of of of and and the of it's et get in-country price. an

in-country shows to corn being That look the still a and down price the -- profitable price general and we corn Brazil, said, fairly on fertilizer if market. we at ratio barter the in yield of call sorry, what it

at earlier saw little and our that projections, XX probably overstated. is view probably at people we we So safrinha looking what -- tonnes. is stage were year in It's were looking season, million this where a like early

to which X% a million X% Historically, about closer Brazil, lot to has get tonnes peak the a Brazil starting to grown total looking we're back tonnes. year. million of or of XX Now XX at to fertilizer is

acreage continue yields. So grow Brazil expect, both to and we general, in to

follow has So demand fertilizer to that.

Operator

question from next Jacob our And CIBC. today you. Bout comes Thank with

Jacob Bout

of curious in And of your what impact and just retirement. industry, on the market Jansen also back the week, will on your getting Congratulations thoughts industry. the Last ramps? there to Maybe both changing announcement Jansen. allows on North phase the you strategy of was just America be potash the going second on do about think And potash these JOC globally? your

James O'Rourke

Yes. Thanks, Jacob.

of years. X-X of up by would phase tell ramp At Let be they first had they XXXX. would second start and million announcements, first on their they all, conversations will over while say, their me estimates XXXX, probably that won't me, end have tonnes to at until phase, and would that ramped up start X up that XXXX, their own own I similarly the

from little have in our we BHP. forecast, So significant or no X-year production

As XX at and maybe the million-plus if years, from we not from rate market to see a point we tonnes. growing tonnes I -- XX million is we out year, we're pre-war, what were look X% that here, the we million X market But from growing said the the which that's growing a if is about here the tonnes, XX-ish see Joel, talking year. the at as

where worry Bethune best the But on came came for the it could years, from So trade We will easily would seen. perspective and focused absolutely absorbed North there's to go a in K+S position a that work reasonably. could in absorbed export mine, reasonably. be all flow it the and in assume yet American where on the really XX slowly. How analogy is was They probably market. the you the that quite market, is about disruption, be it into they on be really

the could it who what that hold guess, time. people's I if for for will would and is So comes threat don't knows on see I do, course I But as now, it strategies. think a big it faster, say long change a I

Operator

And our Spector comes from UBS. Joshua question with next

Lucas Beaumont

for Josh. Lucas Beaumont is This

Just phosphates. switching to

X So year. tonnes for your an is X there shipment calling to million increase forecast of next million

us you how this to capture compared year's would So just how outlook of see much this kind your you base? uplift could through year? you expect shipment to from wondering, production that of And walk

James O'Rourke

you. Okay. Thank Yes.

to X range of in tonnes So next the million we are expecting X year. growth million

probably continues some increased there As have recover, will our be by the and competitor will market production. Moroccan us recovery to some

but this small again year they a exports, were year, to -- sorry. last they flat back China's increase about to were, or expect from where not where We

say, In a the they're up those. also of I then will met demand, and all ramp-up be that be cases, will I like ramping think, some small by all at. of the PhosAgro, East producers Middle looking has And

be maybe So tight it is bit a and even tightening market continues to probably But will see a met. be what there year. next that we phosphate

actually pretty good it future. from So of a looks our perspective

Operator

Andrew Capital Markets. from Wong question next our with And comes RBC

Andrew Wong

segment, basis? you in looks the through with on percentage normal different quarter-to-quarter we I talk of as phosphate kind years. issue a it's like just difficult So normal. more about just to and of the couple return of over of what recent past impacts kind mean, operations, work been this Can the

on to what production do a they kind of get kind What like what's historically? rate, normal a just good today relative costs? sense been are So of run normal look where we've

James O'Rourke

think Thanks, of here. question yes, be phosphate had And hurricanes, Karen a future will the I'm with mechanical her fair big a I and the going because pandemics of some Andrew. with have respect we for Yes. because to responsible, faults. issues hand to over Bruce this along and -- to team obviously lot Bruce

bit Bruce, detailed worth So you? give to answer. of I a it a can

Bruce Bodine

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. JOC, thanks, and

production we're question, tons with about historical through I out some the JOC's normal would of the Florida those million of proven history in quarter our back of think been sure. what once below a expect last levels to X with Just of for that historical But worth because kind we operation. X here kind I to get point, phosphate it's years we levels walking think start is -- we've it your to has

of a Florida. been mining in function has here rock some it the of we're that reserves of now Some new

and We we some should of the move with the the start familiar see forward. are impacts future in subside becoming those lot as chemistry of incremental kind a of more to rock

year. year. on X there kind But sulfuric our issues the with the operational We've work by really, the plants, be of chunk done unexpected issue this ultimately of remaining to been larger week. product this back was restricted production A experienced needs this that which Louisiana acid the then of the will finished of and One production half to is has just large And year. larger has maintenance end be returned two. completed of some service that

the So we and Florida than And going of that kind hurricanes would well. to only these into expected. last the XXXX, the alluded of us years those issues I think Louisiana. And both JOC industries otherwise should Louisiana uncommon, more few not then effects lingering is heard but difficult other the various be in have us pandemic proven for largely behind as that in past have I not and in we've think that's

some are as our internal significant investing the North an and we training about America. And to of to base through coming of of So historical acceleration aggressively we've maintenance capital some realignment some done, been as that turnaround of we talked other all to when and to that personnel, of disrupted from proven are have equipment proactive organization of part of some restore digital improved with addition that our key global assets see and replacing productivity. investments that in that, sustaining are the all And of these we of hurricanes. cycles bear a reliability leading that pandemic throughout that well technology better asset couple aging our onboarding should the better our of some even we've we managing and our

of So a get half in expect we from million to volumes year next historical close at significantly last return to the and point, levels quarter to run improve XXXX. to and back production X rate see $X your the that years

Operator

comes Thank you Goldman from -- question with and Adam next Sachs. today our Samuelson

Adam Samuelson

year, want has exceeded I -- own on especially to back of And be tonnes. just clear out the third come XXX,XXX sales own you've Mosaic's about taken kind potash and by production in company this the to have your quarter, want to -- I production your outlook.

healthy produced but inventories. down sold, of a you've Now amount worked you you more last than more sold year, than your pretty own -- you

sales a Esterhazy for really at a I on calling quarter, never would a hit know company the in expanded. which uplift quarterly has sequential the that basis, level but be in volumes been You're has really fourth

produce going real natural earlier questioning, Why Mosaic lines it's that to provide market. partner rates wouldn't and for I to cost infrastructure, port allow your at risk the from some couldn't alluded would investment because Colonsay capability winter for volumes. operate high the logistics But some -- mitigation higher West but rather the higher Canpotex back of Coast in reliably be not to context the a weather and could JOC, your you to the at kind alternative global we away to and cost challenge company might of consistently Canpotex maybe mine, of its as guess why logistics increase to -- that higher really than be constraints being more

James O'Rourke

Thanks, Adam.

great there. make You points

by Let improvements in saying, our rail their facility has greatly improved through me logistics in capabilities Vancouver, Canpotex Portland been infrastructure facility in our has start expanded.

the their their -- John's our and the, or I is it's We of there -- say Bay. use would Thunder have entity, optimized maximized I'd independent it of use use, use because an port say,

the that to XX the a only deal limit can how sending XX.X million is are with the there we to Coast, million volumes, over both Canpotex Canpotex tonnes move let's and and So East whatnot. My point tonnes. We've port like as to us XX and the and Coast to to can things fast what years grow. XX significant allows grown West you probably you say, from, million million, strikes

of that step respond of as how lot can't have It's grow market. to and then issues we say on strides at McKenzie, Gord limitations solidify of Pacific possibly perspective, changes been the real a who look haven't you disruptions not pretty their has their has improve a under as time relying well. point to Canpotex can fast on Ken to to or you finally, doing actually you're leadership markets, Canpotex the can done good you how National to those is job. that to capability. My end. taken under And and in it that if fast And that the can real leadership So some from we that darn logistic time ignore say Canadian tell I Seitz from Canadian and continued Railways, there you to course, international

Operator

Ceccarelli question with comes next Aron our And Berenberg. today from

Aron Ceccarelli

could Russia Canpotex ton? per potash. same at in back question said. $XXX China with with of be contract China time, us really year is My expiring contract below to and a year. the little anticipated. There's correct sales I'm would if to is with the originally muted, outlook coming the prevent Canpotex's a for possibly back China what to next than that see Canpotex as end outlook you between I Despite your for At like strong faster your flagged go QX, to volume is relatively a Nutriens pricing bit

James O'Rourke

Yes.

the The Russians across export thank continue million room to to continue by will is record into seaborne amounts expect The China. their years for buying need because Aron, this, the XX Look, if of you. will the tonnes, to potash Okay, growth back look the be which by markets. forward China we Belarus rail demand there they are to actually will we continue product we of for have at Russians. rail, will their export be, as on as

our and said and customers always Canpotex Canpotex Chinese even need I've Chinese needs customers. are the So Chinese fully that agree customers

to yes, Canpotex ground inventory they're as you informed end, final is what the matters it there's the to it So time. of possible and get at informed And is always very on moment. in the marketers tension there's sitting the always is you of a try very contract, China, the is demand holdout -- a to can their come to last contract, which situations -- market. with that's But build buyers a in marketers. up level where, and as those are one as the the our close we And what

a with balance. pretty good you So normally up come

for when is issue the whether And on the these into the really or XXXX. good their Qinghai $XXX contract look are again, Malaysia, things like as Russians' and there because chunk price new to It seaborne the was up make inventory the table. is to of can for their What is market I be the what's lower Indonesia, rail terms ready production, Brazil, of which it point repeat of and today how the The that. come look? you the But possibly? be production. the will Lake is anything of how of imports a trade comparators move because we on taking China relevance not depends position In they production before will global coming does than

dynamic. that have days, always but will So market early fairly it's a pretty complicated

Operator

with Thank comes Zekauskas you. And Jeff our next today from question JPMorgan.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

over per month, think little at tonnes. million now about than that at they're been XXX,XXX tonnes rate Belaruskali bit means an annualized months has I more of shipping the past which X shipping a XX

thought wondering was why year, next I below so million normal tonnes you their X be And output? they might

James O'Rourke

Yes. Thanks, Jeff.

where know product from. think is that port to simple I up out. go that's is Is been the that coming we there exactly at a waiting built thing don't

can't I whole X think look year. and months at to compare summer of you particularly X months,

issues that et have the et in unavailability, ports know with respect cetera. to We cetera, and those winter freezing

look So shipments. shipments as at summer we Belaruskali their whether whether producers, at or as we -- look their we seasonal Belarus, Russian the as look never at high are

not again, that expectation pretty by that's be And is shipping area. that challenging. they'll kind rail, Canada, And around darn unlike our So the in gets do. what it cold of pretty distance, winter it can

issues. all You're kinds get of going to

And our months. do but we that the is, summer, so winter adjust to for would that it yes, expectation be may able at risk in they the discount or least

Operator

like today's you. remarks. team over I'd conference for question-and-answer concludes back the closing Thank any to the management to turn This session.

James O'Rourke

Okay.

call, many on reiterate hoping now years. XX let to our before but say, has pleasure of our a little you'd you for with day, my It just weren't conclude I clearly to that. be was been going a dealt key on you me I've do So last I messages, easier me

honesty anyway. for you thank your So I

to just and for Farmers of maximize our continue for products really incentive supply turn, well demand be tight and oilseeds fundamentals just But I the at great do well And and as to let very to time forward. ag that I at believe are continue this market. it terms demand expect foreseeable fertilizer compelling. future. and and In goes Mosaic the of business think world great Bruce in leads And will conclude dynamics continue strong grains in a to we that, company the demand. the a for least quarter. The to forward, well-positioned going we bodes Growing production. a around future. for me both team have the

Now Mosaic to benefit in from as dynamics. a these excellent market position company is

we're shareholders. investing business strong, capital the Our is and returning balance in to sheet

future off, and the with wish much. all earnings the I'm pass to baton Thank Bruce them for their to you and very sign And calls. in going best that, the

Operator

conference call. concludes you, today's attending today's sir. presentation. for all This Thank We thank you

and may You lines, your disconnect a have day. wonderful now

The Mosaic Company (MOS) 8 Nov 232023 Q3 Earnings call transcript