CF Industries (CF) 3 Nov 222022 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Company Profile

Participants

Martin Jarosick	Head of IR
Tony Will	President and Chief Executive Officer
Bert Frost	Senior Vice President, Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain
Chris Bohn	Chief Financial Officer
Chris Parkinson	Mizuho
Adam Samuelson	Goldman Sachs
P.J. Juvekar	Citi
Vincent Andrews	Morgan Stanley
Lucas Beaumont	UBS
Joel Jackson	BMO
Andrew Wong	RBC
Edlain Rodriguez	Credit Suisse
Stephen Byrne	Bank of America Securities
Ben Theurer	Barclays

Call transcript

Due to licensing restrictions, you must log in to view earnings call transcripts.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CF Industries 2022 First 9 Months and Third Quarter Financial Results. All participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the presentation over to the host for today, Mr. Martin Jarosick with CF Investor Relations. Sir, please proceed.

Martin Jarosick

for CF thanks call. earnings and morning, joining Industries the conference Good Development me CEO; Vice Frost, Market Will, are President Supply Bohn, Sales, With Tony Bert Chris today CFO; and of and Chain. Senior months results its third first afternoon. reported Industries of for yesterday CF XXXX quarter the and X host On this then the session. our outlook results, call, question-and-answer discuss we'll and review a forward-looking made are not that on our on website this Statements facts call statements. are presentation and in the historical assumptions that These involve and statements are risks, future guarantees difficult and performance are not of predict. to uncertainties and actual what Therefore, statements. differ is expressed results outcomes may materially or any from implied in More that with may the information our affect filings be are which our available on detailed performance about factors SEC, website. our found in may release Also, website. on you'll find between and reconciliations press presentation and our GAAP non-GAAP the posted in measures

me our CEO. President Now Tony Will, and let introduce

Tony Will

Thanks, which our everyone. Martin, posted of respectively. our flow was XX-month basis, for the and afternoon, X billion. $X.X generated adjusted quarter billion was EBITDA a cash our trailing $X.X we XXXX, $X adjusted results $X. we months and X and of whopping and first billion, morning, third a free in On Yesterday good billion, EBITDA

to reflect Industries an efficiency flow cash XX%. These the incredible, results Our conversion team. EBITDA continued industry-leading by free execution outstanding is CF

end below Our and have labor hours, we done plants to logistics the continue changing per was industry XXX,XXX are distribution our environment. running safely. averages. X.XX quarter, incident Most importantly, rate all the well, leverage capabilities At rapidly our of and well XX-month we incidents this global to recordable navigate of

tight global against the place of nitrogen remarkable very performance a team's took Our supply-demand balance. backdrop

returning our development believe time remain demand reached carbon place growth Asia. ExxonMobil shareholders. complex. remain will Based the explain extended Donaldsonville, Most enable to growth the namely while we capacity. continue We for in environment capture clean underpinning high-return ammonia expect projects us in agricultural-led on free prices will significant prudently focused this to dynamics sequestration flow, of capital generating in on and blue at the As strong we cash our Louisiana Europe outlook, landmark this same for a substantial which and energy by an period, moment, high in and agreement with we Bert invest energy highlighted a recently, our to initiatives, will

for into also We study of joint phase. venture us forefront have focus moved believe global keep will market the disciplined ammonia the with that We Mitsui ammonia. blue investments and with at project low-carbon our on partnerships our leaders developing the FEED

to dividends. a on for below through capital committed also count of brought repurchases stock basis. our have share adjusted XXX split shareholders remain to share end outstanding and the first the million returning quarter, We At third the we time

to generation the free on continued yield more over we Given market cash Bert, our the our of discuss established fact level a global LTM have XX%, we With that, confidence over me turn shares existing billion new forward, on our detail. repurchase high let authorization. materials, who shown after follow nitrogen we along to program with X have cash Bert? complete of have flow of in it share Slide $X our as will the an that for going free

Bert Frost

largest need X the Trade Industries the during high, At curtailments of same ammonia and in CF months over be to unprecedented operating quarter. India have of two causing energy nitrogen of Thanks, rapidly those stocks. due into grain the third with replenish flows adjusted Europe rate of regions, last an Brazil. continues remains near robust Tony. the and The have Europe environment Europe remained imports level XXXX. to import end approaching the demand prices for time, in the Agricultural-led as the global Asia positive to

Asia and likely returned normal to Global those are from European prior Europe nitrogen be actions. in at upgrades trade government exports. also difficult. who have XXXX, products upgraded supply of producers that Russia and availability. remains challenge regions limited years. suggests very economics fertilizer able flows well last by XXXX. to of supply high urea lower adjusted has will will levels energy the over Ammonia winter have cannot, in ammonia been to those Chinese face materially as below contrast, But to exports Since producer run government continue near profitably. policy least from to In Producers quarters. in supply has is for Russia likely two into costs with option curve the October restricted import the global This energy Foreign Europe the also

season. we as on progress growing below where in grain the leading resilient to by XXXX ahead, heat nitrogen key focuses projected weather harvests U.S. of production drought expect poor increasing agriculture expected and not maximizing regions to security. affected from trend. meaningful in negatively to were remain yields the rebuilding the Global This stocks and this as summer, producing significantly crops sector demand be to food during Looking extended are make are includes face the global food for that towards suffered

incentivize As a fertilizer to XXXX. crop in which yields prices strong futures farmers remained to to relative apply the corn last maximize result, for should decade, nitrogen

application farm where XXXX. wheat high drive higher-than-usual impact we move build this the in demand to book in This far strong product CF is first book have corn Further seasonal as XXXX Low and economics. our export product to prices water we well. margin which we in line planted levels and North Typical between close receiving quarter rapidly opportunities have we continue strong has strong the export a and In an needed likely healthy from to Belt industry's enabled the acres we to River due on India crop shipments as for season shift enter ever, today's interest America XXXX. demand and and Corn regions in largest are with for and from out, to market. year this ammonia This the As futures outlook, manufactured most. importance is Europe has into the the have Brazil ability seen product year, to have Mississippi can and so and fall challenged northward order begun. increase value of late will expect

prices you wide steep can suggests our XXXX As beyond. network we in to let call me curve dynamics see continued on during a and we for even positioned nitrogen over Chris. supply are prices. XX, With volatility cost turn manufacturing demand in cost these global curve, firmly of a to support cost nitrogen well fluctuate. to and, range the that, rooted broad view, the The the estimated industry Slide well margin With opportunities as end our low expect at continue global strong

Chris Bohn

Bert. Thanks,

was the million, EBITDA quarter attributable EBITDA company and the net adjusted diluted was XXXX, of million. $XXX For per earnings common to third $X.XX $XXX reported million share, of $XXX stockholders or

the of For reported and $X.X $X.X EBITDA EBITDA or X months net billion company was billion. first diluted the $X.X year, $XX.XX to share. billion common of the stockholders per earnings attributable adjusted was

the business million. we for strategic As Based beginning are we related ammonia year. encompasses look XXXX plant proposed end we planned total ahead, land At provided Louisiana capital of initiatives. activities, remaining Mitsui. the at This of blue we around clean the to on expenditures expenditures our the in range well and $XXX positioned with to including across be low expect maintenance energy the the believe, our we for acquiring initiatives,

initiated with half the in a of study project expect have second we FEED the final XXXX. We for a and ThyssenKrupp investment decision

to the with benefit sequestered track our than expertise step partnering substantial forward also Once putting reduction X to intensity the carbon a be meet subsurface well their our on We of took unparalleled will annually complex us million Donaldsonville emissions from project dioxide and at Donaldsonville ExxonMobil up goal. carbon in gaining geology. tons and admitted, of capture XXXX rather operational, with transported

XXXX, expect anticipated in sequestration in early million carbon compression with and to the unit We constructing. are the $XXX line dioxide of we dehydration completion begin

installed earn our of Inflation for carbon Act, credit assets to believe in soon capital. industries be our the the in with and and well expect the above cost to the in tax ammonia XXQ years, critical place agreement This give interested progress for low-carbon volumes expect Given ammonia. of represents market over to We returns development enhanced the necessary ExxonMobil Reduction should we ammonia. produce clean will completed available. we blue blue low-carbon two In substantial a using little infrastructure dioxide that energy have certainty our greater

representing near Our the some is future. we shares million have to will a On we of ratable initiatives program. the begin Industries one to through energy repurchases. only With a return call with in share closing than On very the see and point, as billion capital Slide we Tony flow basis, to cash to XX% our before from compared of a will opportunities criteria as and outlook. authorization repurchase cash these investment our see for CF This free that billion undervalued our expenditures on the free repurchase XX and new meet projected outlay more remainder to remarks $X adjusted the shareholders. to provide growth modest well additional current can continue rate. our At share have pursue enable capital maintain of EBITDA almost attractive clean completing anticipate return that, us approximately generation opportunistic you conversion that as profile X, expect flow a This yield trailing ago. cash both free We metrics, program. repurchase repurchased open we'll XX-month year robust $X.X share count Based to to continue shares Q&A.

Tony Will

Thanks, Chris.

foundation to at Before on for want of to the CF we Their outstanding is thank in their safety expertise commitment everything I unwavering move and we work XXXX. Industries everyone your to do. questions,

impactful startups, plant year's development Wilson the our One put is excellence process honors which Yazoo for for complex this want I to innovation reducing City recognize of a on commitment the company. to conditions Annual award. unsafe our ammonia this of in They the for Award safety spotlight most winning we boiler potential the safety, the arise. ways improved within

outstanding want CF I Industries, our approach the end As in put context. an we to of performance for year

our Over generation last XX years, sheet our cash capacity have count. reducing balance the production the significantly grow share outstanding and to and strengthening we while invested

with execution amplified along operating environment, returns the unmatched ability, these positive from investments. Our have a

perspective has our of see of can this flow free than Slide X the from participation you more As shareholders, time materials period. tripled cash over on

outlook profile from Given we generate initiatives, to our capital disciplined return operational strong energy clean flows. expect superior cash stewardship, focus, strong favorable our and

will we result, questions. the that, believe, and operator, years the With positioned build substantial shareholder a your ahead. open As we record we on track create to our call proven well now value are in to

Operator

Mizuho. come question our Parkinson will ahead. Chris [Operator from first Instructions] And of Please go

Chris Parkinson

and America is North movement been a of is including of shortfalls lot the supply ammonia in a coming of to the lot Europe, that flows, heading which There's trade out region facing. easing

the season hear let's Just I'd to materializes on very say, Middle say, assumptions we spring? into the eventual on be disproportionate first whether there's begin or to demand of suppliers Northern curious be updated on any not the into, your let's you going springtime demand quarter and believe an be Hemisphere into supply, kind helpful. comments markets pull very that to dynamic this as Eastern would how Just the

Bert Frost

is And we these as need the trade side you distribution as changing sector that and that at production one in flows. important hit on this Chris, well of to is of Bert. look side subjects the the probably the

or X-plus be remaining say, ammonia at And top out needing above out let's what production of QX, gas Russia, to so lack coming million of tons on places the to with $XX. least of used Europe, of come in replaced different prices of is

more America the and and had American you've it's amount tons market and off as as and step and Eastern others North in But are North Middle well urea as to reflected in as a UAN South well tons Europe. those as Russian head tons have So supply tons. substantial CF heading had taken also African of replace towards to

logistics vessel of in of as as so products. those are trade reflected and additional the costs time And cost well the flows

assumptions through as that. outright and our continue when bids probably QX, I we're remarks, so requests we're and and expect said we be supplied the in we looking flows, to geared product in prepared XXXX, for up at to and are, my and XXXX receiving, for are this trade And dynamic

to and always to some customers American of our mindful, of accommodate We flows our supply though, that, North the that. ability have changed

take commit to And North so program fill be did their care or July why we that's then in the more American needs market. and meet our to they're in and export of early aggressive willing what the customers to

Operator

of ahead. Samuelson Please Adam from comes Goldman question go next The Sachs.

Adam Samuelson

line that moment. questioning. at on the Obviously, of kind of maybe forms guess dynamics between different a of I continuing lot nitrogen of different

with in quarter it's major the out considering spring? think are you we how and you that think at divergent now logistics think look going the North -- As urea. inventories impacting does that ammonia maybe of the about versus pre-notable turnaround the some you're you do how that the overseas, of impacts nitrates river, and and issues maybe the inland should And And shipments? into in how the U.S. how the bigger -- fourth America

Bert Frost

water and it's are issue Arkansas, with right, are the This the you're again. And the XX-year how are it's our And we are river North Mississippi, at due these American salient that difficulties. the is with Bert the Illinois do lows. that of shipments -- but meet the think limiting important we Ohio, levels the just to I is demand customers some discussing not today topics

not the those amount So time then taking on barges barges. they're loaded, and are double light merge only of to being

of a from, say, Midwest So barge $XX ton let's to from the by cost the $XX. moving went to

Inland So in we that's and and why to customers North Port we're going say America with the tons our those move be or tons speak. tons as our needed, like working of tons Neal valued we our to internal value or Canadian are when

Tony Will

you that, exacerbated a And railroad there. up do threatened I this is potentially with if strike, to Adam, gets add being would just only out which end

but in just of normal strike. spotlighted discontinuities, there's So of seeing river production, service the distribution both a our today, assets periods we're really value of if rates also terms rail even logistics, is that during not and in-market

which it Bert as and market. export options have the said, position, we in product we're with is, we've able the to very got So nitrogen. pleased short continue where certainly looks market, really access be to production with our where like European what Donaldsonville, And is to

in some to does so those margin maximize Bert job the we're of And just great a mix satisfy needs and be margin over would able in say, of to Relative differences opportunity. I happy there. to requirements to, product optimizing opportunities, order

the margins now, So the with he or ammonia year lot of UAN, and as opportunities where and toward dials and year up products of nitrogen. end year. that we better the per the right a then export And leads a in cases, for you value urea twist us unit moved look versus is to really good to set for at of next a great of

Bert Frost

comments. the Yes. additional vessels for of as Thanks our And some additional is, globally. that working out move as have well to we gone difficulties rivers just and railcars procured a with efficiently of as reflection products the

excited in QX QX. and we're what's about coming So

Adam Samuelson

you out one guess strike impacted? railroads. the storage before I weather a starting you clarification would without run production long user just of load out and How question on could that of on-site impact be

Tony Will

we Yes. a that export Bert's I we produce approached mean way Donaldsonville, I order book. there. And approach can got think everything that is, we really the or have good

of concerned plenty loadings. being demand. in Dville. not about vessel a we're we're And to situation have we outbound international run available where so And able There is

already require lot of in-market delivery and because truck they're significant a outbound plants access them loadings. in have to just Our rail market, do don't

event rail but levels of in a the combination strike. and with of by network the on in given so who's to that and of and distribution of trouble tons good for not of imported low product capturing rail the also is strike, that capacity, a our cost river And unaffected real Belt really storage Corn relative we're the in-market consequences bringing along the potential rest relatively in only but both into high logistics counting spread we're dire industry bringing anyone the position would imported because our have the

Bert Frost

said, these we're space, our would cognizant And inventory and we of as and terminals. have our issues Tony with network distribution

So we manage I can think that well.

Operator

P.J. from ahead. The comes next question Citi. go of Please Juvekar

P.J. Juvekar

I'm And you really make hope confused this this. nitrogen of I market. with sense can some

the season, marginal the are But X,XXX of customers. that close to domestic XXX. And cost maybe much U.S. If mid-XXs, north say, of you to you in have let's urea we have own U.S. take care guys prices, will exporting, European puts stop ammonia approach at today. lower spring of assume exporting, as and will is DDF prices your to

case, in some scenarios just for describe you us? So does market Can that how out? this play

Tony Will

is is it's what I Yes. energy we're level very and that greatly rates. I prominently BASF well reduced and clearly of And on seeing you've I facilities publicized where mean think right at some got there Europe, the side high demand others now industrial destruction. running are say, most would in costs

to you has have that so to nitrogen go in because happen don't this really around. and And enough -- environment

good So sits price and things arbiter the a tends what value don't be it. get of where to

necessary. rates curve the is that's and expect don't we as in forward least operating where you pricing Europe But at current so And where high out, product on gas based point is.

going to constrain of or food issues security world. potential really that vulnerable the and parts And and calls So the that's some most further into supply of highlights forward. question going

values a look costs that real we're strategic and given the rates. operating markets think the location to prices, aware challenge given us to operating of tons I where the that. relatively the why Donaldsonville trying we conscious that's are. fairly of as and is grain ought is, have of reasons still to They high a price options. navigate costs where to and The But But the best product are and of from bullish And stocks energy Europe we our So lower price use sell energy and attractive and other outlook And we're higher means grain Asia the it. of So at I look Europe rates. high forward. lower more that's as we we'll in need is And tons one think do domestically we're they then if those relative the the is of attractive who paying if exporting arbiter are most, it. option option for standpoint, of

So we why a tight and so the balance expect agricultural-led strong go bullish about and on that's we're very demand supply/demand nitrogen, forward.

Bert Frost

a in I cost action. curve And think this also is

You're seeing the high-cost ton cost curve in bid that globally.

So strange you never moving ammonia you economics moving again, Europe, direction. have that Australian ammonia and to happened. logistics, Chinese It's to have back

our have to also moving You Europe. ammonia

these so those dynamics bid you changes, tons. these have in And to are

can running, some And have for plants of earlier, intermediates DDF are. are chemical said who to reasons those that like produce those we but or import,

And of massive half million we to market that's of And going to when tons capacity and off, tight. and you in, XX will so think in you're stepped and keep continue step have the that will have dislocations. others we

Operator

Andrews next Morgan The from go of Stanley. ahead. question Vincent Please comes

Vincent Andrews

I in big particular, month thoughts up. ammonia the saw Chinese sulfate that in to step like would just on hear data we took your And exports exports. a last

basis? And perspective? you so do a what think I'm where just And And wondering be actually from CF matter going that's trend -- that on go-forward would wind up to it a markets you think influencing? a if does

Bert Frost

been XX to to of policies down few becoming over governmental inside to China the down ago from from and wrapped supplier, It's of their several watch now has million very various and tons urea, years a and an a going enigma. last been years ramping X enigma capacity domestic X.X. to Again, production interesting especially basic massive that expansions

surprise. good a come deficient ammonium multiple tightened millions sulfate because areas. out has to S&D. of sulfate a a the fertilizer sulfur is that combining global been in nitrogen you're and So ammonium tons. That's But dramatic up And change sulfur has

Europe. to and So and well have Europe nitrate moved the South of lot some urea those it's in to America replaced been tons as have as ammonium -- tons of a

that's of of the So control come haven't reflect reflection been by and that equipment make we production a that Other product. continue. to and -- have probably is some government caprolactam. of that a out to reflection expect Those is they pollution sanctioned

and And to surprise, continue. so we it's yes, it been a expect

Tony Will

of tons with is reasons historic producing about. and is desperately and as needs I of those say across world something those is the short the value But you the that see really of tons chronically up for bid all regions, Bert the now also world curtailments would talked outages and the has it short

So normal I think that's deficiency given on the supply the response the side.

Operator

go The comes next Spector ahead. from Joshua UBS. of Please question

Lucas Beaumont

Beaumont on is about just Lucas Russia, ask could. I I Josh. for you This guys if to wanted

really start and to compared But mean, sort haven't that problems there having expect exports production you'd that nitrogen on parts I there in expertise, been to probably nutrients. the over based see lack the popping availability So industries. thing some other impacted in up much of of of to them that's time, other of

how And -- and wondering, should through just like -- lower was side, kind listed of three of flow project next time? the your operating two operating a could to few give the I expansion yields also thoughts us you to just over years. we see like on rates rate that they So had production through there kind on then

done now kind same So they basically for of just get products and the not of availability basically? expertise lack of

Tony Will

Lucas, of right to via one expectation really because pipeline exports to Black on that to is Sea usually little lot a that the go out used Odessa come sort now. and and The not there variation. a So the route and then much available is down ammonia isn't that or remain that think ammonia probably lower side historic of is nitrogen our difference I levels, near

is is some to flat fairly are So And year-on-year. of operating other point going our is you reduction the least be in out, next But year there that the forms consistent. or nitrogen ammonia expectation at so rate exports. their for pretty as

maintenance not I of see ton think on moment, problems. upon we're on and in various the being a fall off how dependent there really you sanctions availability due At it's counting place. conflict long goes Russian to how big long the

is start of build, begun plant will be will once plants they've up, our a significant time. eventually likely they but new for amount the those On expectation delayed

years. deficit back on so to of that those push situation to online. nitrogen respect And But right if is in again, coming think our in XX least fair of the not the and production up expectation two plants normal also, they capacity lot And demand up. it's start I the now world a a really year-on-year amount at is months, growth with start

if So really fuel particularly show it's as or as does ultimately, seeing up, start need for to coal. electricity we see the start develop start with need co-combustion away generation And of have really things demand low-carbon ammonia, plants ammonia. those a those alternative and pulling ammonia, those we those Historically, marine areas to available world not uses up. plants required when we do new whether

is the So Russia most status part, quo new our expectation the is, on a with for that stuff. little bit delay of

Operator

The Please next ahead. question comes from Joel Jackson go of BMO.

Joel Jackson

I'm world? to few what ask tend together. would Togliatti like Maybe always be you weaker in industrial about if mix. comes QX Number would for the a to the two, netbacks going ammonia of but heavy do QX though, politely Martin online? to ammonia because pipeline think questions yell the back Bert, that What

you good a and $X there? how What You UAN And why got Can the urea buyback over about, three, export Tony, -- number. some number? years? to about commitments number dynamic billion prices weak over Board was it's so the had different the thinking all just was and three $X quite that you relative benchmarks. right you talk the talk three years, the about to for billion is that Can

Bert Frost

situation Will that additional it's take in through is an a intricate to need point. there up? with to war and one, pipeline, bringing And start tons you're together to middle at pipeline. different question. you back It's I'll long online railcars, of on, different will That been know the then go Togliatti efforts pipeline miles those facilities. to old Okay. come a first very zone. back very a an rail big It's the We difficult some have move northern additional of the some ports. had That's that two. components. a many come

to that's So to would to pretty all its operating a say up those enterprise positive difficult former bring rate. back be going factors

the We moved So tons? it consistently over pigging that just line? those be questioned. should million X a Is have it think have to pretty of And X quarter. wait million the -- take right. at I the years, ammonia, look just an tons of the X. QX and see. netbacks, when industrial look you When the you're is On at you let's it each Is

look so percentage users Mosaic at tons you're you gas to we you And is against number industrial price, well. that when the that because on QX when market at I other are $XXX volume many question the extraordinary QX. is and and And urea, at looking we have was the at based, think the very our had, averaged commitments cost is entering low plus next the of that the as for percentage urea of

tons asking on And to you as know, our urea, you're customers for months. sit so to up those for X

get And so there tons, expense they customers as the is and time. well. a with working that that's discounted get those our something buying to issue goes and through interior, do discounted capital issue And they over and just we work

level price, again, late was pricing in very probably you the our starting when at so a low of average and a peak, hitting look And peak at September.

will so in reflected be And QX. that

like I numbers. urea our So both and QX, ammonia

started at UAN $XXX effort we the had think numbers we was team has there. fantastic average $XXX and ammonia I good filled when at a there

Tony Will

just the would spot everything inventory. back Joel, I going that from an tag the to Martin's part point QX And on. for applying our with Northern most that demand and he's ag quarter into one. not is lowest Yes. Hemisphere on perspective is is because

quarter. points typically the as demand other that does, have, it's largest don't trade we it's really, industrial industrial proportionally we whether same particularly ag or contract the out, demand level he contracts also those our at in as Mosaic season. ag so And saw right, And

realization, those adjusted authorization billion. mean, got second into out part EBITDA is But third our we're is your with our of we that repo. factors I'm the Why you over we've $X I'm so -- quarter that to you And of would done And ever repurchase $X.X And billion I a by the is Bert, make into nearing us question, had And consideration. XX price billion the of months, sure really $X that quarter, when shot. the the about thinking third share with lead really say, number? right closing pleased long volume. you're I strongest last which existing have. we've just the take

And on So repeat, be place expect it, any period things develop develop, so so to make seeing of than then one back faster go here this well of stocks to the is got things and the didn't dead rinse that we differentials flow and and use we we of where the on another time the we'd requirements. we to But based have in and that that without for we're top we is authorization are, going on, news if to and period finish the want first based right? them end layer we very way those it's good easily a cash could three-year prolonged a of it's huge significant on And sure half on that business this in the is see how one horizon CapEx another energy there. it. generation not

shareholders. really it just and about excited in to we the means returning about so And I'm future. think that capital of flexibility capital for lot gives And how us terms a deploying what of

Bert Frost

team record price DEF maximum levels. our the when that record highlight issue But other fleet Joel, pricing from you're our not efficiently utilizing average at one products. a I category, do group you the basically levels. and DEF that few talking only at if But realization want but is other that's the look is at and to about operating capacity is

just a out shout them. So to

Operator

RBC. next go ahead. Wong from of question Please comes The Andrew

Andrew Wong

do be normally demand So think to acres on just And pretty ag We side, a going of ask of obviously, being want to -- planted. as there's actually. nondiscretionary. lot it we I the

and some on a just view that. I'm on there's I demand guess deferral We of bit a pullback profitability just on like just price kind of But in hesitancy metrics and all little really, curious things Like your or -- little those here. have strong. like demand really seems of seen bit nitrogen, elasticity look

think about So just how works. trying that to

Tony Will

there's view the Yes, need by that is they're still Andrew, at They is next to and to of looking despite going are nitrogen little may are. farm a a that nitrogen lot And wait. relatively is what's know want wait-and-see price economics taken fact high, I going right think now. bit They're a fall. being favorable, therefore, prices people I on very approach the

situation I think of or tough a world. that's potentially rest that what a the where energy prices in tough we're situation seeing given the is are

other world, next America there some in order parts the and The North in at position nitrogen a less for working is Europe, the commitment out build year. a there's so pricing but big in also of levels of issue to current capital

about on more grain So But to prices be plenty goes. a we people there's hand year. demand mouth head that. that we're say, as based little strong still are, think you tend to optimistic ag we next very live And going where to bit very demand, is of where on I into as think

Bert Frost

XXX million around Brazil you when And Argentina, agree. the move you markets, those is tons major those North very over just one, million the at -- XXX that look the America XXX China, end areas, world. I look coming of from million, and five at just When taking tons demand, total Europe. healthy, demand it's

short synthetic than though we're And from that nitric all for heading of products have for ethanol. in mining in explosives livestock but are the are grains and you stocks-to-use the ammonia, We acid very even into us, positive. a demanded oilseeds fibers ratio, the to or and are feather recession, terms

to I that regions for to There the And goes forward curve. look that are so the back at are constrained. cost cost end be going demand, and

this $XXX. $X,XXX still were in level in that's of at so And lay were for you year before demand $XXX. then pricing operating tight, that's why ago, that, years when keeps the And we market the of a two at and we that expected, ammonia we're

future. to healthy foreseeable the are We stay going for levels at

Operator

go Roberts question Please comes Suisse. Credit John from ahead. The of next

Edlain Rodriguez

mentioned Edlain Like is one quick Bert Rodriguez. what if Tony, And your expectation apologies And ago? so different months you think question. quarter what already. this out and you from the weaker have X, expected. X that than you would Actually, you Clearly, was did missed? turned

Tony Will

ground We've contracts we quarter the absolutely other ag we've billion trade from at billion it honestly, disappointed a therefore, the industrial going price of to There's cadence people I to And contract launched rate. talked third contemplate internationally. and not program of there's Actually, much launched I'd in lower And the $X having ratability at fairly that. in quarter absolutely at the and I'm for outside demand may and adjusted mix EBITDA them third ever nothing if demand the We is on third of you because $X higher above well of is industrial any because of that or highest tend fantastic. the all. others. in we is missed I EBITDA the product that don't business, business outstanding. apologetic think prices think which about fill and the is this and had normal about realized quarter, no the muted We it's view product Mosaic saw tell of the anything, really a

Bert Frost

Yes.

quickly and the in Let got export X my was we estimated, gas of than is moved the production great. vessels normal get lower pivoted which Other shift is and that, is up, at our was lined exports, volume to me the than opinion times than than where inventory own estimated, we we the line market have and higher was very the times pricing higher it manageable expected. had price is volume product

Tony Will

just have you tell other don't would internal park. say Ali, the And I'll knocked We Yes. I really of guidance, internally, give what thing. it out on it We we based was, one our right? thought and

this of So performance the I'm pleased organization. with really

Operator

Stephen from go comes question of Please next Bank America Securities. of The Byrne ahead.

Stephen Byrne

channels. your various hear view inventory to like nitrogen on I'd in levels

corn retail has urea. starting they There's out I'm into And U.S. to [Indiscernible] head So comment and view enough of to wholesale or inventory respect question? you that levels you that have comments there right into would that that's with normal? your U.S. you customers. now And the the be normal levels How belt. maybe visibility their versus sure inventory exported than assess So would this year. would have Clearly, I'm more with then Brazil, on some to full Europe but logical, do urea one? hear your sure not

Bert Frost

U. So kept inventories was demand know this were case, public, that didn't QX -- looking it's levels. followed S. not we as we into probably and how in that think but system, And high the we anticipation view show the we was trade at of had up. inventory I spring I the trending

long UAN. were So we

inventory. through so is we for fall good application ammonia, think to and Medicine something that customers' Hat, move them transitioning was to rail a meet But side And I or the level. that's river Neal did the of very impact QX, to where also as Europe additional by move why well and NOLA also expectations Europe taking maybe large Dville in think be into are ourselves there we're up. is that's the but to needed, export, that they're shipped I a importer. Alberta. up and And the And very on world, which acquiring the inventory we're tons as that's the railcars, we where areas now set we high to And if the Port place probably positioned down of Yes, But inability worked we the up Urea, December. high. are to rest is move an reason watching. We've prepared not tons that's to well UAN, cost so can of lighter issues of an very river our for interior. having

something And do. the to very so you're structurally trying that system was quickly to do not built

low inability plugged. they rail to don't system have a fully barges, issues move load They river ours little And are so facilities, set had to like up into they a bit import tons the but quickly interior. and those an also also

to So There issue the are for a moved And Europe. of movement lot structural an African into think were that limiting product. issues them. that's of going are be I North tons

Grande, a while. some Paranagua UAN Santos, some as States. set Brazil are been moving all inundated We're rail and that's there, strikes, So There they issues, different. fairly bit I would efficiently. trucker been grand actually Rio say as like there's United scale they moving and in up another imports, and over a well not were the on little UAN issue. for is trucker plugged we with for were and were is a some they're

money. that's I have vessels lining so record cost think and days, though. they'll going to been and make do waiting And it numbers up of

Brazil Jan requirements. in constantly those creative they to solve -- However, a is to and to month the But their their meet need very February XXX,XXX XXX,XXX working tons they issues into through and how issues. this

they'll do think that, but expensive. probably more it I will be

Operator

of Theurer Ben Please from comes question Barclays. ahead. next go The

Ben Theurer

what product in delays through. of the Actually, of around the your and some and was like reflecting I wanted expectation of just the maybe to up follow the pricing it's how into quarter terms

rivers, more little friction ago? up constraints, little the least if rail below a there's in around you current cetera, in be you levels potential some just think about actual NOLA versus commentary the bit you seems but much And explain a pricing So and plus the strike to the given terms So seems price. why it Russia, last logistical the talked the made year of think do versus the environment to how over like be the the time? on, it realized price, maybe the at you've do a of understand this price over going price to going the of is how so structure structure et everything what's about structure forward? be it also, bit year, year could system and And price align you

Bert Frost

Yes.

last the So with I'll or dependent Middle is are on business. traded. that a We're determined the why first different East in board commodity that's things. of it commodity a part pricing price not lower. different business, current be at Paranagua the NOLA, and points, In start is in whether That

are are the areas an just that to And that new with tons. are so world caller -- areas have talked of receive I the plugged and there high inability as demand last about

have a down to what And that because today. believe out system, them this a now wanted the to low. with happened, So saw a tons India of the week, level India because difficulties those $XX rebound artificially traders a did into to is surprise of lot happened guess river may their we tender going announcement we be what sold just has that they happened positions buyers NOLA. has get And and and of

the different beauty flexibility. the dynamic of a the market, our these this in quickly, and is this so have what markets of is and spread system CF pivot And distribution the the participate very to ability of terminals all

pipe, to to ship, different truck have You of rail, gives vessel. we X That and barge, remember, modes a lot have flexibility.

or structure why the that's consistently market. our at than we is better believe pricing So

So same. our the expectations are still

and You how a that And have the bit that and only the normalize. to happen world destruction, constrained question of that's will the being into and with will for a nitrogen readily cloth. when fertilizer little but heading available, market, need and fed is demand product be a demand deferral XXXX we're

higher where and probably to So next market positive year. price, and a going say today are we trending would be it's XXXX, into the we structured

Operator

the Ladies we I to would and is like all Jarosick call closing time Martin have gentlemen, that for back turn today. to remarks. for over questions the

Martin Jarosick

Thanks, at everyone, upcoming seeing you for the joining to forward We look conferences. us today.

Operator

conference now today's attending Thank for may disconnect. you concluded. The presentation, has and you now

We use cookies on this site to provide a more responsive and personalized service. Continuing to browse, clicking I Agree, or closing this banner indicates agreement. See our Cookie Policy for more information.