PCH - Earnings call transcript Q4 2020 | PotlatchDeltic Corporation

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Operator

Good morning. My name is Christian, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic Fourth Quarter 2020 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Instructions]. [Operator like call now to turn to would over the Mr. I Financial Vice opening President Richards, Officer, and Jerry Chief for remarks. Sir, you may proceed.

Jerald Richards

Thank to PotlatchDeltic's call. morning, and XXXX Good conference you, earnings fourth Christian. quarter welcome

concerning slides associated forward-looking measures as with and that be you, While at a Eric these risks for a earnings and on I Executive reconciliation forward-looking the found will familiar release, website This to statements. some note the the the Also, presentation please President he's Eric in this then Please turn will our Chief and with statements. our over press outlook. now of and can review face Cremers www.potlatchdeltic.com. results cover filings is first call our SEC in contain to our Officer. comments, call quarter warning the call our non-GAAP I'll on statements fourth

Eric Cremers

Jerry. you, Thank

well my Chairperson. PotlatchDeltic to we leadership. spun Chief businesses, core due Mike a I with to successful going the to want I company is was call completed different years with aligned. our very As changes XX earnings company. worked as our continuing over are disciplined this capital commitment I time, to aligned with and mentioned, We We strong and who strategy is retired and do balance industry shareholder investment-grade assets, company's that Covey, and start mentor off years performance decisions. winning is a in value a He fundamentals, REIT. pulp paper of sheet merger our to a strategy CEO today converted our Over after assets. that his very our the we Today, very with allocation anticipate the not is significant company being now and the have well Deltic improved philosophies for and Timber. Mike high-quality Jerry Executive as through have the any we a our opportunistic I XX long-term first been by Officer. that with Executive an excellent forward. the thanking increasing closely an

in our adjusted measure. XXXX. Furthermore, $XXX XXXX, Now to our elected record of results. since a want million units for virtually in generated thank their COVID which I business all performance, the our We to XXXX employees X and REIT phenomenal creativity XXXX record posted status every EBITDA is of flexibility, by focus XXXX. in year turning a through pandemic. was we continued profitability

tribute highest to XXXX a outstanding results at committed a to operating Group the are Our level.

Our Wood on strong robust demand Products safely and $XXX segment focus employees' and of prices. operating in million EBITDA to take resolve advantage our us lumber generated allowed of adjusted historic XXXX,

stellar and In going XXXX. safety in had Arkansas our incident-free both Bemidji, sawmills Waldo, fact, our Minnesota performance

priorities. we front, presented risks X.X in our operational time feet virtually our under on challenges completed the Safety the shipped the pandemic just and presented all top of managing remain billion capital the budget despite On board under pandemic. by and the of COVID by lumber projects

a start which levels million and the team harvest the mill hit good by job a second $XXX million was of is XXXX. second did year, for our shortfall year of tons year generated adjusted segment in new up customer the plan caused in Idaho sawlog Southern the record. prices Timberlands and our annual in Our record Timberlands X curtailments quarter. the EBITDA harvested catching Indexed the of at half the

for of in Minnesota EBITDA $XX adjusted team million. nearly The closed sale generated million segment XXXX. Estate the The to successfully in of Fund XX,XXX Real Our acres Conservation $XX

strategy a catalyst, conserve to significant for sell various quarter Minnesota which our land has Fourth conservation Conservation The approximately XXX,XXX Fund been is a with long-term meaningful purposes. in premium. partnership a Minnesota acres sale ultimately will milestone at Our in

On the XXX Rock We than master-planned Little sale during much in activity the community development completed and we Chenal better year. Valley sales residential of lots commercial real in began. business, COVID fared sold pandemic our a estate expected our side when the

up million point to using cycle. fundamentals housing and single-family rates XXXX, refer in remain demand, homes starts December. cycle the to unit. Single-family a this entering to September single-family total it we low starts great and since improvement super and on starts that does cycle in multifamily home buying highest stronger million in a prime lumber basis stage a This their lumber for and than crisis, of more lumber than exceptional phrase an set created This is Looking unadjusted since are millennials at XX% call exceeded underbuilding has XXXX. unadjusted increased and made is U.S. December record for adjusted X.X X.XX crisis. great pundits, increased fundamental basis, continue financial historically demand the to Massive sale, each the years since X the with to to seasonally units in concur because grow units million which home some the the frankly, including important utilizes for X.X associated inventories year-over-year. in view. multifamily any low December, XXXX. housing the environment, starts expect that permits mortgage we an on lumber in as decline level more than of lumber today, units single-family housing were times current industry will Many the On financial demand demand

affecting estimated XX% appears average one had this to of ever seen. Additionally, segment construction Toll to Brothers, for week. is homebuilders positively a last on high by repair equity, home from of signals market housing demand. also the homebuilders the The demand remains that age Underlying years These the now historic and supported lumber big order strong recently country's like largest U.S. and reported inventories is Home housing box at best Four they levels range. housing of the on remain of their demand is and view future. work growth from low and which supply That positive are housing home shift to grow. to to from [stock], urban of home continue living average, expected was all that the Depot be foreseeable end suburban the the trend suggest stores factors said robust lumber will Lowe’s. XX remodel be

This year, We into PotlatchDeltic, season. building setup While lumber the moderate to important lumber higher remain heading this to about prices to expect prices later averages. given particularly the long-term our than XXXX lumber. could leverage optimistic remain very is we

shareholders dividends and XXXX. share form million of of repurchases to in the Turning to in capital allocation. We returned $XXX cash

are some dividend on XX%. growing the $XX returns. mill or we expected platform and Liquidity fourth provides our million of X.X% projects We existing quarter. we additional to projects million accretive represent in the consider committed plan as of sustainably, acquisitions. with We to spend discretionary XXXX $XXX potential under highest capital of dividend just increased a investments The our returns discretionary the average mills sawmills in strong our in in

We our operating or are current timberlands, combination near the of two a interested areas. mills in acquiring

we our committed PotlatchDeltic of legacy up working spectrum. plan the turn our to well fundamentals has social take on We now across we to and are mitigate do positioned and value. and balance the a May. responsibility climate ESG of will report, is to part and ESG and story, are in of shareholder I our publish degree PotlatchDeltic To to to a strong fourth report environmental, and our my very continue wrap comments, our to strong governance outlook. results seek flexibility to XXXX currently provides and our very as Jerry very maximize it discuss sheet advantage quarter favorable liquidity industry high we over change

Jerald Richards

adjusted of slightly increased our more than is set third log fourth X quarter Timberlands slides $XX.X now beating million review quarter. higher quarter. ton quarter compared quarter. I fourth third the to fourth and a prices the for record $XX.X we from was X. in third quarter. the is in $XXX shipment seasonally Starting of a operating through million in the $XXX was the on segment the This result the sawlog the EBITDA in last higher quarter basis XXX,XXX strong South, North and land quarter increase quarter. on our in seasonally of company segments a displayed Thank Minnesota results. sawlogs. with indexed million segment's This volumes. was in the to will significantly offset seasonally the prices compared more lower adjusted in We exceeded the primarily in per our for In EBITDA the in tons on Information harvested fourth The quarter. to the was sawlogs harvest each Higher million that lumber XXX,XXX prices sale harvested color you, X and Northern fourth and third from the provide prices just tons the The we fourth slides, XX% volume expectations Eric. higher bulk X.X Page indexed down harvested million in of were quarter. Idaho third sawlog quarter, than that in tons the

occurred job our shortfall making mentioned, really curtailments. mill a XXXX that due Eric Southern team the earlier As customer did up to good Timberlands in

Our the fourth compared were quarter. in the to prices Southern sawlog third X% higher quarter

to in the on fourth the quarter. million X million Products slides in and X. third EBITDA Wood to Adjusted Turning was compared $XX.X quarter $XX.X

$XXX from X,XXX board $XXX Our in feet average fourth per decreased price X% third quarter. feet to per board quarter the in lumber realization the X,XXX

prices order prices we quarter. spot reminder, our lumber This file levels at the at move October. a of end record significantly higher locked a third than As in had the

in we effect Lake diversification sawmill In prices the prices States from the in look at lumber lumber our the correction of addition, Pine strong due it's quarter. to prices Yellow helpful benefited Dimension stud To Western Southern our regional and context, month. by as provide to

third We and Our fourth decreased fewer COVID-XX lower November cost the negatively were mills our December. affected board feet the operating production both to X,XXX in Idaho price due board affected fixed hours the in XXX rates per shipments million hours XXX $XXX fourth $XXX October, board holidays. quarter from $XXX feet had million costs Higher in The feet in quarter Lumber and to quarter. in in infection our average indexed lumber realizations in absorption. in higher production log communities margins. more also

$XX.X was on acre quarter. third compared transaction We EBITDA quarter. to segment's the million to the and $XX.X The in announced in Minnesota slides fourth Real Estate adjusted the previously million quarter Moving closed in fourth the XX. XX,XXX XX

any sales million shares million. of in This cash during repurchase to at items, are amount liquidity as total residential Shifting which $X.X were We strong and $XXX did summarized quarter. remains revolver. our addition, a fourth undrawn quarter. lot well we XX, million on our the the In as $XXX on Slide fourth financial closed strong, includes commercial sale availability not

As $XXX,XXX outlook shareholder are operations allocation a included This expense a in beginning in focused fourth comments. annual Note in includes and provide acquisitions. XXbX-X $XX.X refinanced reflects flow details now excludes a our it just December part our I to reduced of quarter. development place. broader in have cash shares will presented amount ability mentioned are some the cash million Slide were rate I value strategy high-level interest This commitment from million on expenditures our prices December. which real the in XX. capital increasing at estate reminder, statement, attractive Capital XXXX. in plan of The and approximately we the timberland $XX that our on debt run over long-term. We repurchase as expenditures,

first to the approximately volumes be expect are volume about XX% planned to our in to in comparable of relative the X million with the fourth segment XXXX quarter We Harvest the tons in quarter. the North Timberlands South. in in harvest

less are we record quarter Harvest XXX We seasonally slightly flat prices. in hardwood primarily board decrease prices XXXX. mix. in first sawlogs million to the compared ship feet feet XXX expect plan quarter, and sawlog plan expected sawlog sawlog Northern the million In to quarter of prices approximately in first South due billion We volumes fourth the to quarter first to to be lumber. ship of in to the to in the X.X board lumber

our associated first volatile Having uncertainty than reflect price estimates that potential that, my higher career. recent can to recall more estimate pandemic COVID-XX are in lumber in for lumber our XX% to average We constrain operating XX% Our the hours be I prices to said with the the seeing quarter. will in continue sawmills. currently

foot basis. board million As approximately a price reminder, EBITDA lumber of a X,XXX per equals consolidated $XX for change Shifting Real on us Estate. an in to $XX annual

Valley Chenal approximately We rural approximately expect XXXX. acres to sell XXX of lots land XX,XXX in and

slide. the on estate Additional are details real provided

Our $X annual will per Farm the the second, interest that $X and payment be from that for first quarters estimate our Credit banks. and will quarter $X expense than be to is of interest we patronage million expense quarter lower We the third because one in the normal XXXX. in first quarter million fourth million receive

generated lumber fourth quarter fundamentals. and bullish that last sale range Our acquisitions are excluding first capital in of and be that repeat strong we Minnesota expenditures land that to post with leveraged in EBITDA of we XXXX. adjusted closed We expect in in are will level total $XX anticipate Overall, the on the operating fundamentals, million model no large industry the we the our $XX despite those remain planned believe million, quarter. to aligned integrated again we We to approximate results prices the rural very quarter.

to concludes up positioned continue like open the I'd to Christian, well remarks. now value shareholder long-term. growing over Q&A. our the call That are to We

Operator

first Your Instructions] from is Mamtora BMO question Capital Ketan [Operator from Markets.

Ketan Mamtora

a quarter. Congrats on strong

question, want sheet First priorities. with is off I capital start maybe allocation a to good Balance shape. very in

Your of just are what sort net very upon repurchases your to of it? touched priorities? about QX strong. you looking M&A how is down bit. times. sort leverage about discuss little Can talk share between X.X M&A, But and you of sort You think is

Eric Cremers

most shareholders you options, morning, and to And likely suggest quite of we frankly, sustainable allocation regularly. from our form to generally top are I Good capital options and dividend, review least Well, it's what as the likely returning that in analyze Ketan. follows. to cash would is our priority, a

year. in a dividend, a does X.X% typically regarding as each increased the of So Board review in-depth And just our dividend you December. we December know, an in of

hike it. we So just

about So we allocation Products’ give the dividend is capital Wood is. consideration where we The item good to feel next CapEx. that

remarks, mill XX%. average opening just mentioned to discretionary for $XX his projects million is that projects in under get XXXX. those in Jerry going we to As spend on The return we're expect

So we're have invest typically constantly mills very our they looking in because for high returns. projects to

second The say two, would the we're frankly, that's So Deltic or current one M&A. it I mills near creates third allocation. for or priority acquiring of shareholder value, combination did. operating highest a capital that M&A in going caveat the only interested if merger generally like areas. our is the timberland, in to our pursue We're quite is

given we're right It's have sheet too price. buying is an we because that rates. we not and we repurchases. our repayment. paying to cash on might priorities shares, the NAV. debt repurchases list. we under dislocation when when leveraged think of low Share about low with M&A opportunistic the are at buy the Fourth in share the share So We in where is approaching last third debt But shares today. as wrong. list generally sheet of terms it get now, want most see be hard seems sit be our do And today, we're And very opportunistic. repurchase market historically gets excited down we is to then to got stock interest item frankly, here And a balance of balance reserve on and we've back

So your does answer question? that

Ketan Mamtora

does. It

Just a couple on follow-ups that. of

the Within a CapEx you doing? touch are of in Products, you have can upon Wood that couple discretionary key all you projects maybe

Eric Cremers

Sure. Yes.

is auto mill, got new costing about to we've improve We've into we're our Ola So $XX improve Maries feed our new St. into that's and optimized got grade yield mill line to that's in key in XX feet. mill, costs. new scarf got projects new improve for our down roughly putting going Bemidji going stacker which a at XXXX, lower We've improve production to costs. discretionary log at again, And to and in We're plywood really grader Maries X going plywood in recovery. a going volumes, million going that mix product St. a pursuing, Arkansas got system we've lower million. out going a sawmill our

collectively way but XX% the they all on from these the that end. think, got all to on anywhere end, up projects XX% XX% of the return high from, on have average, low So I run

of Just excited a great about. that really we're set projects

Ketan Mamtora

'XX was essentially of That's at X.X flat I And is your it. which helpful. you volumes, XXXX. what a kind FY Got then lumber looking surprised billion shipment had little with in

capacity Given your housing, a do what are there in numbers? production? how is with have about seeing these talk standpoint we increase to it maybe of a bit differently, from headroom you conservatism Or to much

Eric Cremers

XX to We've -- little COVID with is costing with us increasing I numbers, and one QX bit is we us. inventory a you We of anticipate because into of our inventories, COVID X is But quarter. recall anywhere roughly got QX did XXXX, lot shipments to relatively XX not of XXXX. million feet of in million the versus going XX Well, million ship a of think simply And in to a XXXX we're conservatism well. feet, XXXX. shipped million that have got things we from still that built XXXX to high finished

line bottom inflated a the we in lot that was because relatively produced QX prior is So was year. XXXX shipped in

of numbers. I our built a bit little think conservatism there's into

But I we can, that's beat many we're that running fair we hopefully, hours as think can. got feet, plan got can as an as million of increase XX say we to XX as shipments margin, running our generally to we've whenever in hard speaking, the it's mills case million we've that. today. Certainly, and

Ketan Mamtora

over. X before last turn dividend. question I And it. Coming just it Got back to

they flows said, are it you I of sort right dividend? any Products’ side at the remaining given And there know looking things? the given to looking to Is how Wood want some in is lumber? in of a of then the you push any approach but of lumber of strong don't EBITDA kind on around terms volatility how the cash there's approach increase you’ll in end now, linked about from would December. talked of there's given thought be to change You EBITDA, sort are in change dividend, much too And strong baseload there whether at to

Jerald Richards

Yes. Appreciate I our in would dividend. philosophy question, the really no around Ketan. been has there the And say change

other growing focus price-driven about flows, long-term, pin long-term. discretionary the that's it As the our part of for to always our can on cash you to Eric over shareholder over is we go look dividend capital and and think When value returns cash flows. that mentioned, sustainably then our provides what more that stable volatile the drive we lumber

So again, dividend is based bit a to of on stable tends there flows, and cash conservatism. be

I deploy. think, hit, first is served pressure, comfortable of about capital for that to us to bit And XXXX work mentioned, and well under side as the not And you our to early we in opportunities he the our certainly kind when pandemic a and the excited flip couldn't have to dividend through the COVID shareholder very it a fair was -- be level. drive we the available put Eric walked long-term. of more priorities, through deploy cash value

Operator

Quinn is Your RBC Paul Markets. from next Capital from question

Paul Quinn

of a on Just couple your questions maybe outlook.

Just pricing looking expect we at Timberlands the flat? the Why that flat -- be on do just a North. to side, the in

Jerald Richards

you're to the quarter going lumber X-week in fourth that also it's well. between Western pricing, the in other And historically, pricing. And in record it plays for we The a see price first certainly, resets. Yes. the sawlog a is effect move then point prices as play that into the is starting timing out had that move Paul, flat element about quarter. Idaho of our timing been And and sawlog prices in lag

record flat still So prices, when strong that's quarter-over-quarter at really we're levels.

on past, and these an we've opportunity the are X basis The in actually agreements with take for about other now year, of those years. end evergreen to I is, an X-year out will negotiated indexed point customers the talked At having we the thing key arrangements.

X just And so that now X-week the then lag that And time. two, weeks. is we've lengthened number mentioned I

to get And more update frequent is going should mention the I our the the of in seasonally to denser first quarter key realize. pricing X%. well other more see tune current, of kind logs that that you're we in about So as element the

a the headwind drag realization comparison. bit that's little price So a or of a on quarter-over-quarter

Paul Quinn

total. Okay. your on That's Estate helpful there. And I on QX, the lots on see then of guidance Real side, maybe XXX in XX development side, sort the just

shift expect marketplace, of time, seeing to I just pricing year? first the in that you're Just in lots the there lot to balance what to would to that that the going you do the for we're sell development XX,XXX from XX,XXX. be those mix in lot or over -- seeing expect but Is flat XX,XXX increase a

Jerald Richards

shift. price entry-level lower of lower a Paul. You development. actually in that lots. up of That much a golf Chenal premium that mix course the are way at There's a wide of price points from kind the an correct, range is are It end, reflected point range all our to project sells portion

more So mix. or that's less just in than nothing shift a

Paul Quinn

Okay. I overall, market the then mean, results. impressed. just that Obviously, And wasn't you had great

there came they're in have to move right price share direction? do into last up year, you XX% your the shares but do What down get this Your to X% guys year.

Eric Cremers

Paul, here is possibly running will itself great smart all We capital stock do decisions. record got price the around think We've as we allocation a market can. -- we've we The of take allocation time. track a energy can of business record. over care our phenomenal got stock focus capital running and really best as Well,

optimistic we're the will over the time. So market the value company in recognize

Operator

next question John from of is Your Bank America. Babcock from

John Babcock

if you be and able might the on there? your wondering provide just I realizations was lumber to out current side, Starting average

Eric Cremers

Yes.

fourth quarter-to-date realization So in our XX% our were we so were about And XX%. quarter. is to up about on plus XX% the in where average, quarter where the compared than fourth pricing is we current higher

John Babcock

Okay.

taper basically to you the guidance? are XX% how that's XX% expecting get you to and So some

Eric Cremers

Yes.

mean pricing to but we've we're on February, March. much little a in volatility out good know, could is prices. get the unprecedented, of in end thinking hard markets of softness We hard got order to Jerry soft insight predict. mentioned, expect a little files And strong really it's those really we bit through very like so pretty March, have I

John Babcock

more question next then And Obviously, regards U.S. to the in of the is Timberlands with side things.

generally have indicator if time. provide can I any other prices sort was for markets the might some give then indication to firming markets And also, it's whether what wondering there? sawlogs, that you of or it us indicator, been, would South starting any housing see of you're get And to some pretty over if of those to firm? starts signs flat take

Jerald Richards

Yes. Unfortunately, John, we U.S. flat in relatively continue see prices sawlog to the

XX you to a South, new our time the of itself going lift the that our But reminder, just supply Southern than to short available see -- take doesn't give last. doesn't sell beyond actually and XXXX forward, not another you least to other see might at of logs think the in And is, in on for a sawlogs to support a years. of really wood that baskets when be We a few constraints our in there wood out of next And as X timberlands consume put baskets. pieces is across excess XX enough times, again, a in South And the fiber broadly, but foreseeable supply, work a lift. there's in will that we're the time to as region. at to that just XX data view of situation in that that off weather study large other South. continues our period little information, it see We'll our we future, from last and for you'll when a net at the was that At today. couple place what's up, and little so time least more mill point FXM movements see out. sawmills and above it we bit we the suggested a in wet bit least open recently, sawmills to a standing saw

give will again, to So anecdote some we time. that, think just take it

John Babcock

historic that and prices wondering, is as right also question just are any the is can it mix available? you're with having you. at overall, And your making then was Got you over. I tight effect just actually lumber as markets now, and now before basically levels on I shipments right incredibly last product channel the recognizing this turn

Eric Cremers

No. got the continue all. years, it's to us for I I been really mix produce customer and same that base. we impacting stable a have think channel to don't of We've many, customers many our group -- sell wouldn't and at good with

think I no. is So answer the

Operator

question Your [Kurt D.A. is from from next Yinger] Davidson.

Kurt Yinger

Just mill on the investment side.

So you've high return related you type to is some there's Obviously, relative lot of been whole hear the I'd how new favorable haven't potential investments a outlined about to but greenfield interested To-date, the pricing backdrop be very but still larger to environment as think opportunities. acquisition opportunities, uncertainty some for capacity guys COVID, housing there yet. is announcements made.

on why with to not want just associated list? that So risk it higher priority get might your the guys' the be around thoughts and

Eric Cremers

Yes.

build the on unit And per to it the up yield, time the getting look or are, returns then X.X we and in years environment, on current production, higher capital of capacity X,XXX new running. operating And $XXX our have costs attractive It increase more they And at get roughly of projects our construction lower to existing historically, to much mill economics a you've mills, about and takes it's So spending investments. costs either to greenfield therefore, it got grade mill built. tend mill. from time. challenges, discrete improve

You've got There's curve. very start-up lengthy staffing challenges. a

incremental and the to low go versus say expansion. high-return So it's mills greenfield route to I preference the existing fair a make pursuing to is simply our risk, improvements mill think

Kurt Yinger

customers I could guess, about you just about right inventories know Okay. about how Yes, that makes of R&R any I any just But thinking being, expecting? right. new talk And more you're now? a those those seeing then in lot abnormal buying oriented All color versus low. more or the center terms And side? of you're supply seasonal differences some maybe home historically between chain patterns sense. you talked residential there lastly, of

Eric Cremers

Prices thing the to at scrambling, in up, ran low are Inventories lumber. fourth would are and of know, quarter last I say levels. year procure is that now very, quarter, into -- quarter. third quarter only customers fourth trying you the The Yes. as very first

lumber strong really plus $X,XXX out view played look as posting to per think, And it's Lowe's couple centers are the too the buy just look past plus it markets wants of Meanwhile, strong so nobody you've they XX% come X,XXX, months, I just XX% down. at where housing the got over demand. $XXX demand. how starts oh, home remodel mean, at going to and to back when are kind or are Home prices and in unprecedented expensive and have Depot comps range, or of repair they

the entire the people and to going into the spring buying enough because we're treaters, start supply on down. everybody without going been has prices inventory need So to come been think and where caught has season now of restocking, chain especially behind off they I guard are lumber kind think

our these is is inventories seeing prices very So insatiable. because that view we're And lean. the reason are demand

Operator

Your next Raymond Buck from question is from James. Horne

Buck Horne

that underway wood the here, players sawmill opportunity you in Any to basket? bit about of want of kind any to third pop capacity other that are signs you are the question little Kurt's particular taking Are your any a wood seeing seeing follow-on new ask capital? greenfield to sawmills up? that's in I your just get baskets, party starting

Eric Cremers

It's we'll mill Forest they with in mill. announced running. been Lumberton, and our Winona, get Biewer them sawlogs them new to our in they a areas. a be a have too us new in a for Mississippi. from lately up supply around Idaho Lumber or is, new announcements That I'm probably here in timberlands Mississippi that are one backyard. sure our as announced there but frankly, Mississippi. supplying in announced far operating Well, Group away mill number of

operating in when a that impact are mills but are there bump prices, and number of initial quickly So Jerry mills But little in around mentioned, as maybe sawlog then recedes. a start-up, our areas. these it the is they

standing of excess of out seems that's it out, play So kind timber just amount to how there.

Buck Horne

throughout XXXX you for demand higher maybe laid agree and then pretty new remain transitioning want a certainly I believe that And the guess we outlook the with single-family sales. robust to home housing should level, little certainly guys I out,

to think I we're are to is, is So scenario question or are but year-end. new a conservative XXX of where with prices the this guess, I a off there concern prices, But that by lumber today's like scenario there's going phased too to is a just bias expectation into OSB meaningfully conservative I that part prices is still normal, taper the wouldn't that be naturally natural being there say going year-end? drop the

Eric Cremers

those marketplace little in Buck, stay These you with million. going housing I really kind If so prices $X numbers us million of really starts taper But maybe upside the are lumber that more in is latest starts through could to the come numbers. what's lumber they Those $X the are to the that million, bit down remainder range, -- a numbers, down a view people year, that's stay If housing around say, happened the see to our even of million, million strong to where elevated. prices. question think the of housing X.X we surprised to, here. X.X is come have really than mean, Yes. expect X.X X.X starts million.

where lumber million that quarters, given billion stay any to think produce, feet we XX million X%. of X backdrop the X us, given of production. feet in feet that's that said, XX that's XX costing across feet that Now COVID being million out we board especially high, to X Take quarter, still are prices million relatively it's going

and with to deal everybody be going than them having it So well, industry X% even if more would costing conditions across tighten just otherwise. that's is capacity, industry it's to of the COVID,

here is scenario prices taper. seeing QX. a certainly, where in there that here we're don't And So

Operator

the are this further questions. Richards. there Jerry time, I'll showing Mr. no over back to call now turn at I'm And

Jerald Richards

All you, day good to right. Thank and safe. for you, day everybody hope in Christian, take PotlatchDeltic, and modeling interest your everybody, thank has questions, of the and the rest stay a available your

Eric Cremers

Thank you.

Operator

concludes participation, Ladies call. and today's Thank and wonderful have gentlemen, this day. for conference you a your

Jerald Richards	VP & CFO
Eric Cremers	President & CEO
Ketan Mamtora	BMO Capital Markets
Paul Quinn from	Capital Markets
John Babcock	Bank of America
Kurt Yinger	D.A. Davidson
Buck Horne	Raymond James

PotlatchDeltic (PCH) 2 Feb 212020 Q4 Earnings call transcript