Molly, you, call. and Thank good morning the to on everyone
Energy. in As Vistra always, interest appreciate we your
potential stretch. such happening and materials, to into as events and PJM, get the three PJM clearly the a exacerbated report would nuclear series has by I price CCGTs auction, our a seemingly subsidies, for prospect stock of not then and like on the been good CDR we capacity ERCOT Before started comment weather, new months, to what various by last
are we are It is reality curves and in grounded recognize to forward where note today. today's important that
beyond. certainly especially does not the XXXX and and price mean agree to levels current the have in that transact have to we However, we with do that not at forwards,
investors bad a some conditioned at than if operations and lower structure. sector retail lower potential It in a off is the Yet the IPPs the first vastly with company to past news. are were as brands strong sell with any power much debt, integrated the cost we of of competitive whisper different
continued lower We strengthen base asset retail diversify our to return substantially all sound to improved capital, make and have businesses, execute, our sheet costs, and from committed stream delivered. things investments, balance earnings and we expanded a and
have ourselves from the and We IPPs the we and staying past, differentiated have clearly strength of failed power.
pipeline and concrete yet approximately a curves in $X be expect believe streams on way future have $X We have our we anyway, flow cash value, EBITDA fallen have requiring minimal Sure, billion. we $X of excess equity billion with for be us inexplicably, the we over to lost of expected but revenue to billion XXXX XXXX free off, the will of investment.
in unequivocal the and the we value cash can environments view, year us, is invest sustained is, our in producing free put up our opportunity yes. question In flow price market business? to shareholders year answer numbers out while strong To the with return various to and/or an very strong in
for As to accordingly that cash executing with a strong tried are view are value to and flow play, our we is have we we show free emphasize, it.
earnings We numbers from hedging. up yet have the cleared volatility to seen given the and put auctions prices, continues commodity company capacity our in retail, of stability
the enhance forward if to no volatility growth. and valued into no believe Yet power to and/or forward hedge is being beyond ability EBITDA perpetuity now with of curves and competitive in XXXX efficiency to as be should these or led that further opportunity no exist will market apparently response, the curves we through off manage
from with cover and We have XXXX came we As XXXX grown off acquired will in EBITDA the only lower Dynegy, decline not also valued we market an steep expectation. when to of overall our company XXXX, pie. that the but expect resiliency, of decline evidence Dynegy expected the the
Our yield some Nevertheless, and does flow But EBITDA the low implies agree have flow free has to not. we that market certainly or stock a and mean cash free cash XX% extraordinarily price current spoken. assumption. over we do not
As you to current say, been and, repurchasing needless are have know, program. to we eager we buyback our stock our continue
strategic not direction As faith difficult to we value proposition, accept, environment to long-term commitment are is current our us. our shareholders committed to lost who and have as this our in our
our presentation term. Today's beginning to long company's of earnings is succeed the we in ability confident remain why framing
As get know have a a some today. power on shed not perspective. cases light complicated additional the and view in that denial, we business but where volatile of I company. help the earlier, markets We are and somewhat position mentioned our competitive is a It we it so can
have us view. We to a believe you expect
view to company. our We long-term expect lay of also our the quarter for continue call, on further prospects this out third when the we discussion
move X. the will beginning on management's Vistra I finally that operations expectations the for $XXX both from adjusted finished to of results XXXX million, in and its consensus are Slide of quarter. quarter second with ongoing Now the EBITDA presentation reporting line
to Compared gross $XX XXXX, the of quarter-over-quarter. reflecting Vistra's power the were quarter million retail driven results margin favorable, by cost of second approximately seasonality higher
was despite June the in approximately past temperatures been that recorded recent has the normal. deliver Texas with these headwinds, to has results strong years, some including mildest XX% XX able average below a Vistra
centered cash ability operations company its and continues stable energy and prove types Our and to diversified, low of integrated out cost relatively weather market-leading these externalities produce to free on flow. model EBITDA
and our achieving this to stable targets support commitment profile. operations performance our believe merger earnings relatively improvement also synergy we Importantly,
of realized remain run say leverage full to expected EBITDA value with on XXXX we to the am to in realizing of happy million in $XXX track $XXX I rate XXXX. million be
after-tax to transactions. derived cash be our million merger flow the free We are increasing following expected recent benefit also the from $XXX to financing
entity initiatives, synergy through opportunities, value drives line. the combined opportunities, total, its continues ultimately Our meaningfully identifying and reduced bottom OP team merger to our has from enhanced the Dynegy the losses October creation and to realize $X expect billion predecessor in which acquired In proficiency we in more with and to operating And Vistra value the of the cutting from adding nearly cost include in show of value value emerged operations, not savings net value the billion that does merger. of than since capturing cost bankruptcy $X.XX XXXX.
the from and the EBITDA EBITDA adjusted expectations is for in Vistra's pro adjusted higher right XXXX. months for forma estimated line the management merged Year-to-date, ongoing $XXX $X.XXX billion, operations approximately than of million company with X
the the of in half performance sets foundation a our believe year solid first for We XXXX.
to EBITDA guidance billion. to billion our our of before XXXX of adjusted cash year billion $X.XX today, $X.X flow reiterating growth guidance operations range full our reaffirming $X.X are We $X.XX and range free ongoing guidance billion adjusted
receiving approval, Trust acquisition the Crius closed After Energy July on FERC of we XX.
teams the Our of capture approximately $XX and actively from synergies working EBITDA free are Crius integrating transaction. annual anticipated million million to Crius the in additional synergies annual cash the Vistra portfolios $XX and and approximately flow
Crius We financial approximately $XX will the results. XXXX acquisition contribute expect Vistra's to million of
flow a business. Crius We to on not continue that Crius are X. key expect have we increasing reflect basis this for of to on acquisition ahead ranges months we the per-share to the and day cash be accretive our clear, To at XXXX be EBITDA free given time guidance addition
time. maintain the most this company, prudent the we overall believe XXXX it Given our overall is relative Crius to ranges to size at guidance of
have expect curves Beyond to and relatively be the ERCOT XXXX, adjusted flat of Clearly, able put in we pressure potential still outcomes. that to EBITDA decline within we forward XXXX PJM will on XXXX will XXXX recent results. deliver or be range the some
Dynegy us value position at and But the possibly lever holding EBITDA to a merger strong range reasonable with XXXX. seeming put would exceed have of on Crius a XXXX. realization, Including in in we MPS clarity the XXXX path
nearly volatility plenty Importantly, time have half year we before of the XXXX, still in start incremental forward of for a leaving prices.
curves was to the fall ERCOT started summer. XXXX XXXX more for retailers when power it In of the forward as XXXX up move aggressively procured meaningfully fact, in
anticipated an adjusted with able quarter we'll OP XXXX before as guidance to and plant update provide well growth. on as along retirement update call, cash be EBITDA flow free on third for the MISO expect adjusted the We an
in PJM which and it In of general, view, in are to as the been suffering from IPPs Unfortunately, past. overdone. our we response the be our direct seems pullback believe has though in the we curves, currently ERCOT over-levered the recent of to forward stock, appears sins
I So is earlier, we noted believe very Vistra as predecessors. these I different from
Vistra's in periods Turning retail of past X. has both now $XXX to power Slide declining rising adjusted years prices. of XX average wholesale for and an EBITDA million of segment the delivered
the flexibility to term month-to-month ability forward Vistra's volatility stable earnings maintain achievable and portfolio. pricing to a through in result this operations lower profile in as Importantly, combined is relatively consolidated purchases power with EBITDA margin generally of our proven contributes year-over-year lock our we for
EBITDA with expect to from to retail our the the Of course, we overall business Crius. addition contribution of increase
also weather retail our market sizable supports power portfolio power to market the in prices. in typically response competitive a as observe Our decline delayed we wholesale near-term ability wholesale volatility
decline, in result, near business can higher prices relatively the are power the on our retail a As when margins capture term.
a sustained as pressure that retail competition will put EBITDA the relatively margins long-term retail market business will are eventually Ultimately, on market price downward see however, experiencing stable. and well. prices competitive in This in wholesale in result you retail declines,
customers margins during declines, year-over-year hold a this and sustained can While approach increase as for plans. to is price priced competitively will naturally more look retail providers retail risky attempt revenues constant periods wholesale of electricity
of declines relatively are pricing automatic price the result, be price dynamics. impact wholesale long-term price commodity must any exposed competitive as in not on sustained expand environment integrated margins margins. by stable margin a As volatility driven even multiyear Typically, to or wholesale offset retail to an action for are companies retail
by also lock by in in more not the through retail to forward retail risky desire with always volatility. that position transaction balanced of trigger side the one side difficulty generation first to A margin as the through wholesale tandem hedging transaction, optimize the but balanced the more position take in player the will hedge, instance A hedging is short short more to the or longer-term of a player portfolio can or proposition. expanding is very only a margin curve have driven
short the volume a the by taking the On advantage capture wholesale to position A or wholesale is wholesale on net balanced more more hand, and the has exposed net other risk. long long margin opportunity corresponding significant piece generator volatility. retailer of to
Which brings Slide us to X.
and expect to supported businesses Our the volatility for approach in will continue our hedging net Vistra create commercial wholesale to advantage of taking by that value sophisticated enterprise a takes retail team market. and opportunistic by link. are an has we the
future, forward the are point curves fundamental when We forwards where from can are in of remain developed power the In periods prices low the or we of these and at link fundamentals, opportunity. earnings believe this settle disconnected of we point pricing, to will view. only at even our trough fundamental of future view believe a procure further where we prices above patient or we our optimize hedge
To we see volatility we record risk, as reiterate, have this of rather through creating approach. this And an value track a demonstrated opportunity. not but a
approach is that or the recognize to in-the-money of due fleet. important possible net is this generation It to only commercial to Vistra's link hedging nature
on largely assets newer, in highly assets well-positioned where stacks the supply markets are the generation Our efficient operate. that we are
As the these would price frequently would rate economic. forward meaningful are a assets older, a heat result, higher that than hedge more spikes require generation before money become more assets in
energy In margin. on the with no higher sit assets these very environments, price an to heat opportunity wholesale sidelines rate earn low
assets primarily diversified revenues following merger capacity efficiency Dynegy, to comprised and energy. and earning CCGTs approximately both Importantly, generation Vistra highly from the XX% with of increased gas-fueled,
Vistra's Nearly Vistra's our in diversification portfolio and one believe of in exposure from time our gross our regulatory weather and Vistra the more We stable generate and enables contribution commodity and relatively price auction to half is X changes. view impacts It earnings and to cash outcomes derived capacity mild this single-year capacity varying region, model from or integrated over forward political business from flows year that any environments. reduced a margin stable revenue is retail portfolio. revenues earnings
giving XXXX, forward And curves. as hundreds can days to in and and the change are trading A of time you plenty then. volatility between capitalize of Vistra lot on between future now know, there now
fundamentals, fully longer-term on move continue the key suggest will be our trade. commercial reflective in our curves is than forward to basis. should We and for curves forward we they backwardation analysis and there sustained gas volatility, The currently model of believe curve power expect volatility is not higher where a and
Turning to Slide X.
with fundamentals ERCOT. Let's start our discussion
summer. a ERCOT While recent relatively a a an start the resulted mild we in market summer dynamics. and forward on believe months decline to remains have in price these declines curves, XXXX spring overreaction tight wet a a to are very supply/demand
intervals in In the where the fact, several of real-time market per couple settled and dollars of saw XX-minute hour on hundreds a in megawatt prices XX-minute where ERCOT June, a on intervals the thousands in in the where settled market tight temperature hour. per DFW megawatt prices reflecting low a only high real-time XX conditions. and in was This day the degrees was Houston, Sunday
and approximately even were June $XX both hour, the $XXX where saw anywhere negatively pricing was low to from in July, peak Similarly, in averaged temperatures days approximately and hour though mid-XXs, per relatively megawatt megawatt peak mild, per we normal.
Real-time week, hit Tuesday at megawatt prices megawatt the per On first summer. or hour, this were approximately for included $XXX per which approximately on hour. DFW degrees $XXX time XXX this ORDC
higher. normal meaningfully outages, a weather These string real-time outcomes of in hot with could and low August prices do support we the be wind the days thesis that see if
relatively Texas, have temperatures are gone to rise. a in and period beginning we into Notably, dry
it the summer As have significant ERCOT a in week a reminder, in a only to impact. takes
In on our new next supply projects evaluate could is when certain high milestones. the to believe merely will does to for based the of in key report. X First, tight have CDR economics not It high X this factors: At relatively several as three development risk persist met years. view, pricing level, a for including reports have we the dynamic view that continue peak supply/demand ERCOT the a years
take as supply. response dynamics, the into in account retirements does new And CDR competitive not to such
not have the market, As of built. some gets skeptical, clarifies in level of reserved, regularly build the CDR. CDR the capacity experts planned the a ERCOT result, in regarding capacity that new many if consistently ERCOT itself been new the historically, overestimates CDR in only actually and represented the
remaining single be still results are digits a to XX.XX% tight. fundamental high margins very double low range through with digits in ERCOT of These the margins estimate the to reserve at below reserve levels Second, of view point XXXX. target projected least would
more in margins to consistent XX% XXXX and would range XX%, be in prices XXXX forward of Yet the respectively. with reserve
tall Our high the a order, especially margins this analytics achieving suggest reserve quite be given competitive response. will likely
end new and XX,XXX lower years megawatt capacity renewable and next over than supply ERCOT generation a enter as the calibration calibration forecast retirement the given there volatile believe we feature megawatts build market. act renewables come risk this market is To of and likely the long-term is and more as in thirdly, XX at the less demand to are to in via quicker development. with market in the reaction increments This
necessary said, of projected ERCOT That merely for being we also believe of incremental the are in in load growth year. megawatts per approximately or renewables market range X,XXX annual compensate X% to the
is fact, load X.XX% In estimating per ERCOT growth more than year.
should increase. demand, and efficient, meet begins volatility incremental the on the more more market such Any we to generation volatility expect As rely to market will renewable fleet. CCGT benefit in flexible our
real California out the follow in you time. playing see If market, this can you
the example, the small agreements the lack out-years. data In long a does power. is slice to driven by and fundamentals represent to the transaction in for is, extent, activity continue and a liquidity ERCOT not We of purchase market. power of few beyond, setting curves the XXXX believe are This currently forward of the backwardation of some the price current relatively in
on is the in Slide for phenomenon graph for market. the there as of It liquidity X saw right to the We power XXXX, depicts. ERCOT as typical is prices rise a side similar in more
reflect summer of rise participants supply dynamics volumes the locked and fall in steadily saw year, prices for the As forward the market. we prices and entered in XXXX tight we the and many market upcoming XXXX, to
to X tight once next time. are to would X fundamentals we reverse this to again remain the over expect the that years, relatively over forecast backwardation Given
the is the that remains Ironically, economics. underlying developers sidelines renewables. while ERCOT the front model on of new nature Unfortunately, keep fees extent, generation thermal project some forward to on backwardated the risks on curves could broken no it in some end large earning and, with the taking development the
should However, forefront with congestion puts capacity which market in significant the the and discuss shortly, markets absence renewables the in prospects ERCOT. looking ERCOT will caution the to from of in recent West, revenue players losses bring PJM, to invest for in capital a for I in financial
are with ERCOT continues are while credits, curve uneconomic Our to even tax with forward analysis CCGTs the especially suggest borderline peakers the steep that in renewables, backwardation. and economic
ESG new proper assuming. a waters marketing owners months, as in recent asset we the many our of are into large who view, wading purposes. green enter have not treacherous instances, risk to seen corporations new In want targets In entrants they're for they invest decided game, their the all in fulfill to, many understanding have these ill-equipped mainly of have and technologies
Over economics Or reluctance pricing we aligned of to should might part at the time, investments this play minimum, start a manner. in the out, with into step to merchant see corporations these space on large as better future project power we actual the more of economics. see terms
we bode achieve to these have time, to our complicated believe without their of large well many partner a expertise with them Over where expertise. objectives for us help corporations to no will they exposure business
term, incremental given near up the the has been have recent at in not ERCOT the tight, effective ORDC and the revenues yet the are summer. on Market shift we market. very In providing conditions in
we view curves We materialize. do power ready conditions long-term underlying will favorable that the fundamentals market be in in the remain reflect market, not steadfast forward when our do and ERCOT
on Slide to XX. Moving
PJM. Let's turn our to focus
table. started sell bearish beginning on in by market you the As slide, about desire decline and side overall generators driven on curves PJM certain graph the take their mid-May, an the to as own of to forward risk the less, view left see can of off the to began
in market as to earlier revenue finance in had sold puts help development prices by triggered region. who participants, I various mentioned new forward CCGT previously the decline This selling additional
and normally effectively dislocation. longer generation, sell mitigate on in market As a forcing risk to buying became fell, a into bearish the prices curves to when would these forward period them longer be their they participants
result, settled forward been and in the recently the As curves as what forwards has have have parties minor would've sentiment the to seemingly recover their revenue a started otherwise the positions. move was to transactions covered exacerbated. a relatively Only the put market
profile. think recent PJM XXXX per important the month approximately to the that earned to volatility, $X The relatively $XX to capacity CCGT energy and to will and vice earnings low is meaning high and both energy, stable KW a of respond remember I clears from competitive is this XXXX, and capacity representing market average Despite itself it generally near-term prices that a efficient, versa. combination from
a to market retirements of megawatts as we right the In over new of XXX,XXX with takes amount the move in in capacity, one the incremental installed a on the the market it show side of slide. or or direction chart supply other, meaningful
to still to also XXXX capacity stable has would From of most requires a X,XXX a while PJM a between cumulative revenue per has a month new the from that energy KW note month development It approximately a what profile earned year-over-year relative average seen XXXX, KW additions to return. net capacity of consider important and for CCGT $XX megawatts per nearly $X $XX is approximately CCGT very on basis. compensatory revenues,
auctions coal supply of in the are case in approximately coming we PJM. next the also generation has expect capacity in there but and we matter less-efficient, incremental gigawatts discussion gigs vulnerable is believe I been as lot development. will clear, know PJM on of the a PJM. XX the new of it other as in approximately likely Speaking XX,XXX retirements stack of We been there auction. be has move build will new towards this There
return of type, thermal earn it of owners resource. in asset wind, development the slow, asset compensatory a or it that as are to PJM any new believe view new should is from our be also in whether a unlikely development We pace solar PJM the a
with irradiance to It wind. is that the and and in wind is market access PJM note ideal important offshore to onshore sun limited for renewables, low least favorable intensity locations largely
especially floor to development, the more be with transactions on make with Even might market to do natural Moreover, which in forward curves. CCGTs inclined enter appear new now lower into the revenues less forward gas economic, difficult it prices, developers backwardation for a guaranteeing participants for not obtain could financing.
move address I FERC to ordering We August. as we PJM capacity recent action action PJM, the in want to view on conduct the XXXX do from auction this a XXXX, Before not its retirement, potential odd of positive an as able will have FERC for utmost have Commissioner deadlock it resolve apparent that Lafleur's now commissioners should respect. be following number the whom to we
expect of capacity we effects out-of-market revising order does Consistent issue and activity to market the not rules erode with state. auction practice, the further aggressive by FERC ensure given price-suppressive an past will the
PJM that and final FERC viability focused and maintaining with FERC's focus have competitive market, on Both been believe this continue we the on the will of order matter.
believe positive will neutral or to that worst. continue at modestly We the outcome be
FERC addition, reforms. issue order reserve In term the we in that the on near believe PJM pricing may an
meaningful view make sheer Let's to and size smaller, diversified factor any overall and not should diversified compared of less past. the one less on business of holistic the sight, the lose our however, IPPs much revenue the over-levered streams the that as more our sheet and the company impact strength balance to external of
power. all as Vistra's We spent earnings and lot considers for forward that talking front future about of auctions, capacity the of mind topics time market been investors have a curves
highlight the to in want will expect to and hand call EBITDA again I I off we beyond. David, to opportunities once XXXX be Before that additive existing
as know, this just Crius acquisition the of July on closed First you XX we year.
of contribution XXXX. from the year beginning Crius will As include a the in with a result, only XXXX year partial portfolio, our full results financial benefit
days. If amendment decision proposed required in we MISO be drafted, the would Vistra a retire Zone approved Administrative file to of Joint nameplate from will MISO as to amendment late we In gigawatts be is X XX Multi-Pollutant within with issued Standard, capacity which the the by MISO, are Illinois the on currently are Rules Commission summer. optimistic to X on awaiting
some million current are flow in $XXX cash market Our MISO EBITDA of environment. preliminary million the EBITDA analysis approximately suggest and our Vistra's assets free that retirements accretive these negative long-term to as existing to profile could $XX be
On side. the growth
completed year million Our of be fourth contribution by be project battery to XXXX. with XXXX the should beginning EBITDA storage Moss of full year the in quarter per adjusted projected realized Landing approximately $XX
In California we our storage that kick project at a site to a should build close very completing Oakland in, addition, XXXX. are to XX-megawatt deal battery in in
continue opportunities tuck-in attractive presence successful growth identifying exceed and in sites, in opportunities we core XXX substantial attractive are see basis investment the growth-related evaluate from XXXX given to that also above incremental threshold our projects our we XXX or scale markets. points and could of our beyond. in To to will We meet extent cost of equity, upside
expect we to know, significant growth you next the years. shareholders projects to allocate have or flow As cash several to to attractive over return
full And does of our OP last, year. run expect as of we'll call value our upsizing any at expect XXXX, potential million not of this could current this third and include as lever merger we our target, targets rate which later by quarter I $XXX be addressed be soon
per improvement sight new direction. of and have we EBITDA, $XXX million can $XXX commodity either impacts, independent year to price line upside move which EBITDA in million approximately OP without to to investments, Even of
all this items come in offsets to absorb the on the headwinds are future. listed Importantly, could could that however, our positive way that help any of slide
cash integrated combined flow in to focus will of through be of the to advancement continue and expect that free and a model, able ahead. on years our initiatives the execution EBITDA-enhancement generate business we relatively stable with We execution these EBITDA business relentless
will David I call over to Campbell. turn the now
the know, and This you I'll wish earnings David recently be our joined over we with of to it to of CFO. is company his call, turn you. And best that, the David luck. many As inaugural
