everyone morning you, Thank Molly, good on the to call. and
Vistra your in interest As appreciate Energy. always, we
than call this expect be lengthier usual. We to
and XX-year analysis. a glimpse detailed our XXXX results, including view performance with based a of initiative guidance lot on operations have We cover XXXX QX to XXXX, a an update fundamental guidance,
let's So started. get
summer management's Vistra XXXX. guidance relative am of wholesale and billion, the high of that's X, the in Slide for operations to ERCOT that EBITDA adjusted the reported XXXX see especially the to from pleased to power incorporated, line results results are with $X.XXX I its expectations again quarter of prices, ongoing quarter once strong third for already Turning finished
with mildest XX quarter mild unseasonably following July over in of the The years. began an one Junes
a very, our stock off. the bullish and quarter outlined and there call why had markets, sentiment very, out remain we our we fact, second our especially on In was On company. ERCOT sold there
Of course, different be in pricing. turned supply/demand dynamic as than ERCOT tight that know we resulted August out a to the story sustained in July, scarcity
ERCOT, of July average price more $XXX pricing of To some We the saw sell XX-minute and $XXXX at between X average during XX you the hour. cap XX higher the megawatt give at the difference x in August July intervals magnitude than the times hour, four of $XX month. clear approximately the a hour megawatt of was a price price August per than perspective megawatt
to period, summer point performed from fleet peak in bringing headwinds well the This Our ERCOT offsetting the favorability realized August key the a year. resulting want July importantly back expectations for is one the emphasize. in in prices segment for with and management line I quarter our during Generation and
per an pricing scarcity hour level to ERCOT, above well peak realized. In materialize. be curve for market some of to $XXX megawatt order is see that has forward The hour
are a to the going achieve for trade order certain curves curve projection forward into occur. on fact, these pricing need In financial we some see these to high assumed. to at based priced intervals In forward levels year, they of peak are intervals the number of scarcity as
August expected in Vistra's year did additive performed results interval not is in is priced model and materialize this pricing outcome. to September on required ERCOT basis short, volatility a necessarily each in well. high to of some standalone the integrated and In financial this achieve of Scarcity
the market we covering acquired in ERCOT in was load swings the length Crius our retail in Our XX. net while to July including load scarcity also pricing on able the incremental cap
under-hedged summer standalone us to other the for came ERCOT many and right thick like Crius retailers, of in it. the
the volatility XXXX have our would it a summer exposed in Crius was under been to more than As result, ownership. book
scenario why materialized the this that summer fact, ERCOT. long we In in net to prefer exactly is be
from ensure Our our incremental for asset to risk mitigation available the first length is amount forward and have available cover requirements. load of retail to the appropriate we generation generation sales our
to Incremental capture in then providing market any opportunity. available scarcity is generation pricing the upside
of lower market majority the a earnings the generation business, especially hedge like We to overwhelming and a the exhibits [ph] to energy stable way used course, such in ERCOT profile. right periods the is is believe prompt retail excess that much in position extreme arrive risk, before at our more of is run volatility Of hedged pricing. creating generation we this out
we even fact, In see market the more we relies in intermittent expect volatility as and in ERCOT summers the will renewable more assets. on coming heavily
have and are been expensive for historically more As retailers to of types that products find. difficult a available becoming result, the volatility
go length Given of the the historically, topic I a more likely expectation summers in have we detail as and for mix we want change ERCOT future will carrying the into in to volatility, least at generation increased composition in will momentarily. as discuss much
$X.XXX for X, operations guidance both nine of operations incorporated is first that the with performance year our the the addition XXXX of line Turning of for year which we closed to of full power range. ongoing Ambit combined year-to-date the which Vistra's the as with and strong year ERCOT XX, already and With I've prices in EBITDA now Crius the wholesale are nine results, midpoint Friday, the just summer adjusted narrowing billon, the our previously July is of discussed. in expectations business as ongoing robust management from we business months raising first months last November
EBITDA the upside tracking guidance projected Ambit We prior as to to billion in our half our finish in expect billion providing for effect, year base the business generally Crius guidance EBITDA is adjusted the with range. our of of range. we prior originally and range delivering will $X.XX the top $X.XX XXXX In year
of are adjusted prior our raising cash free narrowing $X.X We range to top similarly of guidance billion. the guidance before and growth $X.X end range our flow billion to
Our expected improved a the increase before flow year. for EBITDA the outlook cash adjusted in adjusted growth is free result for of
about to table a long-dated our we You higher the updated our the supplied will it illustrative for we native ERCOT's of impact realize guidance guidance column highlighting backwardation, by than contracts year. we retail retail million expect referring impact Slide When also to customers are guidance talk the XXXX. as backwardation generation. of near-term see the with in X executed retail range negative guidance $XX on in backs out This illustrative is XXXX
For new retail contract under is if a pricing we execute entire with can that the contract example, a three-year the term. three-year customer, for flat often
ERCOT contract, the in exists contract out transaction such the but market means of curves, in that that executing earlier is that backwardation favorable. period usually money meaningfully present compared the of the the is in the Given money market the the to current net the of thereafter, value
some have total retail backwardation minor. level we impact the historically has of While results, our in realized been typically
projecting both into the backwardation interest to However, a market for increased a XXXX coupled long-dated are into years enter and result XXXX, of much participants by larger with entering greater in curve as contracts impact ERCOT. we
negative impact to our a guidance for the exclude backwardation range adjusted to to ERCOT we end operations been guidance be financial high estimating that are $X.XX integrated exactly a the wanted have million. to at well increased billion $XX $X.XX were we reflecting our EBITDA are midpoint end our this illustrative approximately retail how year If range. would to would the of XXXX this sense range have billion of impact, in For We you executing XXXX. provide to give
and In results way as for look fact adjusted EBITDA the favorable we included XXXX impacts from our or impact moreover, in the of guidance these our XXXX future XXXX initial long-dated the excluding from we impact contracts prospective did adverse not will our believe, the at retail range. volume the is proper in be of to transactions backwardation plan guidance
business expecting results. of and with demonstrated our volatile a the upside we to base stability And market. in Our are incremental summer additions Ambit Crius core
we're to XXXX. Slide today also ranges announcing now guidance our X, Turning for
be the we We have past for after from one belief curves dislocated we and the remained witnessed XXXX have past results recent in year reiterating we flat part been confident forward could a relatively XXXX next XXXX that foreseeable and XXXX, for because were historical fundamentals to the got in the our would phenomenon continue slide summer, on expect the we years improve as depicted to future.
summer. the to scarcity in of ERCOT should March expected We a reserve further operating of load another pricing margin and the in year, probability by standard shifts the probability reserve during of Summer of remain is intervals demand increase XX.X%. forecast curve tight quarter which of have loss XXXX deviation, summer next
has forward and in increase expectation businesses, uplift EBITDA as the addition of of recent projected The year-over-year. the as a raised our XXXX well relatively of curve, Crius adjusted prior the flat to Ambit
XXXX for adjusted are billion. $X.XX we billion range before billion in cash projecting adjusted the and of billion free to EBITDA $X.XXX of $X.XXX growth to $X.XX Specifically flow
provided excluding our the impacts Summer of range slide of projected have we guidance an XXXX on this negative ERCOT illustrative backwardation. retail
than of Ambit, expect by we in be in the with expect For $XX due impacted these contracts addition million realize also ERCOT. higher to whose retail will we XXXX approximately what impacts backwardation partially XXXX to to be portfolio
our significant approximately results. Excluding midpoint expected will these $X.X increase impacts, be over our XXXX guidance a XXXX billion,
the would five-year financial connection and published quarter million time, be fact, levers merger projections Dynegy in In the announced of statement which evaluated value of will proxy first the transaction in our merger. with estimated adjusted XXXX Directors the the of XXXX. the in announcement we've an business merits with prospectus in $X.XX many combined recall, joint connection At the of assuming of that Dynegy EBITDA you Board our billion the of $XXX included
XX% than The midpoint that unaffected and guidance majority the being control of only improvement more estimate. we is commodity more In driven this years improved higher prices. XXXX our entirely by outlook have $XXX vast largely by XXXX financial million two with by within items our previous than of than that
improvement adjusted teams have value to EBITDA adding expected done work $XXX incremental the merger growth of investments. to million approximately the hard while Specifically, by is also attributable in nearly levers EBITDA our increase XX% the through
in Two are long-term model. XXXX. years of that the business a would this viability was the just Dynegy resiliency merger, one revenues concerned we capacity is materialized ago, in guidance pointing business, market $XXX providing decline of The of million about example we the today XXXX when the this to announced
operations Our free identifying efficiencies value maximize attractive teams and that opportunities free the and while pursue. requiring identify of our successful at flow very EBITDA both cash cash to been with accretive are our levels we've returns continue growth modest to of to flow tuck-in
I And model view, must say, this a create will for flow continue of will reflect that of not free resiliency, in business detail confident we to EBITDA value stakeholders, does and topic price are business. the shortly. this our discuss stock in stability level We this more cash our and
our ranges our this slightly might most our a ranges, range compared We of guidance of on plus minus based prior a that and note reflecting and of believe are notice line million. slide, X% on range final reasonable EBITDA A appropriate these prior a of you is wider peers. $XXX approximately guidance $XXX is percentage in as million guidance bands with bands than to or
the margins right a is our as if market reliance wider tight renewable volatility the reflects assets. of This intermittent to dynamic the on as with in reserve also its ERCOT increasing guidance ERCOT, increasing in properly better particularly, outcomes with managed well the believe capture business, potential value We range resources. range potential for and
the In market, more the the in have of load we that now reserve. size especially where when the length fact, ever is there it taking than days consideration important into volatility is on
As than a prudent into carry and find result, we we have years might XXXX past. more beyond length in to it December
cost in Given the for risk likely of has especially up ERCOT the influx intermittent this gone past resources, summer short more retailers. and managing of
are our asset range ERCOT, of for potential well and integrated long capabilities. the business of given high position, the to in volatility While may be advantage positioned us wider quality outcomes increased we commercial take
outlook, to in margins. recognized integrated occurring XX-year increase I ERCOT stakeholders. is our forecast Furthermore, understood reserve be cost yet run suits that renewable scarcity in events analysis changing. intermittent volatility a Increasing power The and quite ERCOT system connection market increased with discuss our inevitably future high of on significant and as years. capabilities the well. position fundamental level our probability to continues in appropriate resources with is the will to by business fully A This intermittent will
So we on the arise remain market to building are future. likely on bullish ERCOT in the and capitalize to opportunities
be could though actually thoughts now adjusted flat than relatively XXXX XXXX Turning believe XXXX. on we XXXX, our still and to to EBITDA higher or
curves, slightly solely If forward adjusted you compared take a would prior view EBITDA years. the to down look XXXX based on
year as we to and have as ERCOT tend that we likelihood more on curves in understate are tight forward discussed, the demand next However, dynamic supply and of depict volatility a and out in increase than slide particular. the
helpful market The graph XXXX approached. of a was conditions. significant forward reflecting XXXX, the a for is XXXX, and the prominent including expectations visual uplift X delivery Slide pricing XXXX pricing especially was this to year on where scarcity each as updated uplift appropriately phenomenon, ORDC and in the tight and in there XXXX, modifications This
As to point is materialize analysis fundamentals. on where based we own of believe we our pricing likely you develop market of know, view rigorous of forward
are point not view for likely XXXX, would our market outcomes. did of pricing that for XXXX As representative curves suggest it current
to of XXXX context XXXX, XXXX exceed EBITDA XXXX believe results. the looking we adjusted As in internal a forward view, our when and point of would result,
for are given analysis higher. we XXXX good EBITDA the of business a that remain of the relatively announced at potential believers reflect has flat we improvement outlook for XXXX, XXXX A would that merger Dynegy two being are improve fundamental for chance outcome time to and to our million very our in years ago. $XXX range there the adjusted we outcomes a if forecast Recognizing not model. business continues a our in relatively that nearly business the was flat comfortable The
ongoing $XX Operations we Slide the EBITDA under million I'm announce Burke. Turning our of opportunities leadership to have enhancement Jim Initiative now from X, today to Performance incremental of excited identified that
it to of results. this order teams in process in on we remain and at the evolves, viable prioritizing levels to Our success OP efficiency assets generation landscape ensure deliver our cost ground know as operating are critical that to the the regard safety. first continues The the lowest and must is at and while foremost our highest
forecast Incrementally, also retirements improved within downstate have our bucket with fleet process of the plants in we four coal financial of rationalization our OP Illinois. the
retired of this As required XX, MISO on Coffeen, Havana of the plant megawatts nameplate Creek, X. connection capacity it is of was Multi-Pollutant was Standard you plants, scheduled to Hennepin year. this know, which summer. year XXXX The the an retire November Three amendment this Duck December in IV in to to fourth with and were effective zone retire finalized
previously forecast $XXX result EBITDA is retirements, its Vistra net has sites. which at a opportunity improved As identified these adjusted of incremental XXXX by the OP these million of an
million Taken we with to million OP together, these up per updates $XXX improve merger. our the year, target the in connection a total of Dynegy announced $XXX from
the $XXX OP a level the which of has transaction Dynegy continued million $XXX EBITDA and and retirement the of $XXX It to XXXX of identified first identified, benefits financial target in the in announced net annually merger Dynegy million the to improve. plants. $XXX MISO million from OP synergies the been of of Including improvement increased years from since we we leverage four two acquisition from of merger have the EBITDA of million $XXX traditional million have value synergies, includes value
were Dynegy. Financial the we made synergies not a decision acquire sole reason however, to
the over was transition capacity. Another the which generation of natural from weighted to our discussion rate we generation to fundamental that low heat Vistra's important young, We XX-year is will was able to now fleet to stakeholders the coal one next factor heavily value for create by are that approximately me leads beyond and one toward outlook. fleet gas be believe XX% relatively decade our opportunity
where I operate. company view discussion, key a why I our of to for believe and explain longer-term us we the we get Before essential power the present like would is markets to into it
technological First, the frame change reductions recently our on prospects at that believe we important believe and to our the of it is we minimum, potential the on Furthermore, to announced business, greenhouse impact the on gas long-term perspective explain it our climate even we business. emissions company's for impacts a targets imperative valuation sector. the is
put, stands it change sector economy electrification over positioned. good power question is and are we Simply The is for to result we necessary response climate of value grow news believe the to head across address and energy as well is a sectors it all terminal time a on. of that the companies to there in
our summarizes view. XX XX-year Slide
you XX equivalent emission plans Vistra has announced coal retire and gas XXXX of our reduction greenhouse a to baseline. most compared already COX XX%. Vistra of emissions term gas long XXXX in last for announced emissions plants the X to reduction in of XXXX Notably, aware are than targets to As time plants or week resulting by include approximately since which a more a equivalent first reduction achieve XX% COX retired
result, actions coal marginal profitability our a expect units in retirement achieve reflecting target EBITDA. an emissions our X.X% to in projected we incremental of adjusted of at only reduction we representing our can As some XXXX particular, XXXX
While long any warranted our economics reductions progress toward on analysis suggest that will alone. this be fundamental such our retirements based will advance magnitude retirements term our of emissions future would target
estimate X% retirement X% at In particularly adjusted and renewable new infrastructure to in be build the risk fact, we representing generation our XXXX projected expenditures. next decade, assets and predominantly EBITDA [ph] could of approximately of expected from
EBITDA EBITDA less can gas we period. reduction reduction this the minor targeted Importantly, investment. At achieve growth return same target of projected to Vistra's percentage on million $XXX of time XXXX investments be our relatively over replaced could than small with our total replace levels greenhouse X.X%
to improvement OP. of the we as investment. such only more EBITDA our mention $X the To $XXX additional risk our million EBITDA replaced The this already incremental billion put not to and through than at recent side initiatives of perspective, investment battery require equivalent have risk EBITDA of would investment, incremental retail into
in flow of next represents business fuel XX to billion year its from about gas generate we X.X% only young, the low current bulk X.X% $X of EBITDA We Moss country of generation with over flexibility assets of is free resources, cash in relatively years anticipated reliance [ph] cost, each average. and plants free addition, the run intermittent two to In assuming flow cash operate. in flexible investment particular, markets our level the fleet on the regional The natural with this nuclear of markets and are derived which adjusted highly expect positioned of cost Landing. our remain will believe coal critical increasing well Comanche we on we lowest in success gas Peak reliability and assets power in more for the these
are phenomenon a of solar this seeing as increases. assets California in We play out now the percentage in state
For which ISO resource for California gas contracts adequacy auction. New KW to right $X in revenues are awarded now, double as of per reference in a assets latest capacity example, $X.XX a frame transacted the almost being England's is at month
We low the summer out this played ERCOT also in peaking during fuelled peak on assets wind key and our saw as a role days. play steamer gas
XX% the which as fleet, value Our by is U.S. capture natural positioned across well and approximately capacity renewables support built to is are out gas reliability market
business project growing we remain next we our a fundamentals in strong. over decade of remain and retail will and the and performance believe contributor Similarly, core PJM our our will stable both markets ERCOT
XX. Slide to Turning
remaining market that 'XXs punch the to Getting our megawatt or over this per start are likely scarcity in through to pricing events Let's hour time mid analysis fundamental consistent projects with fundamentals right period. line, ERCOT discussion our the with feature XXXX in remain higher ERCOT. prices the
there including constraints, annual storage X.X% XX sustained In do of team we loan growth price renewable zone. capacity the we XXXX, and included approximately of be gigawatts six of X% through addition scenarios to factored new although that reaching battery to an will with the estimated gigawatt this up assets differential transmission in evaluated expect no conclusion, our
the retirements based potential X.X in the factors of plant obsolescence modeled only gigawatt assuming or economic similarly on retirements next decade. over We market
at conservative which further than generation we it of mitigate supply believe be should of we proves downside bullish, scenarios. any too While if stack our gigawatts there risk analysis retirement are in more to potentially is ERCOT believe XX
and expected around on price assets. model and with to ERCOT's our bottoms observers market at explicit appreciate perhaps calibrated a to our market retired levels evolve the do by assumptions new relative volatility, simulation we conclusion of reliance arriving with build, percentage What rising The renewable hour we the model higher not outcomes, renewable history. hour up, the of In growth will low ran see. from greater increased we how markets the expect assets is in market, on the intermittency
assets, right. together. renewable has further This marginal fall as even to assets rise is generation market is expansion penetration a which with to reserve cost observed the true, renewable reserve effectively increasing zero the margins of if the lowers in margins a median as driven price year overall the stack Renewable to tend by shipped and
pricing the and relative important, percentage resulting events renewables higher However, price median the significantly the a average annual significantly of of most in to in volatility, the higher probability price. market increase will in scarcity
same will renewable you be generally area as If of lifetime geographic a it, a think the about assets in class. or offline available
the In not capture the of the scarcity the able be back correlated will will during large price their renewable part, to of cause they many event because to failure perform. nature instances in be assets
all example, For will offline area. and front all X:XX geographic at drops a stall wind over PM be solar when
by pay on more the by availability days demand primarily ISO ERCOT less depict a on next rather has highly extreme was future. strong, delivered to not is we are metric be events ultimately increasingly the were what in peaks that be on of to loan defined overall scarcity correlated as wind expected And load slide. peaks as the lower case to to load us manage in price than basis. driven renewable, when This in ERCOT as net generation with though demand August the with this attention will Net important
August prices ERCOT this spiked that per of cap market year, XX to shows $X,XXX XX in power hour. the on Slide of megawatt
to nameplate wind megawatts, cap, to output, less less price XXXX load megawatts driver was summer during capacity compared the of the approximately X,XXX for X,XXX per output ERCOT's than level was intervals of summer at The X% demand. However, of real average wind. approximately XX,XXX which peak lower XX% an or peak the peak X,XXX was than low megawatts hike than the
renewable are make to on reliance of have many. definition the and supply by as flexible should decade, with over well gas assets next sustained assets ERCOT greater we increased natural the base resources expect of forecast efficient percentage market volatility, Renewable participants as unpredictable, which up a
ERCOT depress in over market to not penetration rather should suggests meaningfully fundamental stable renewable pricing, our price remain next average the which Ensure decade. rising market analysis will
Our flexible nuclear ERCOT fleet steam which as solar the cost and of highly CCGTs low is market well of fuel assets, base heat comprised value rate low coal, and to units and capture and is positioned gas evolves. peaking
ERCOT and turn view we our to where further Before years representative ERCOT's prior order actuals we XXXX to on back let's leave PJM, is demonstrate normal. to that in move new Slide of XX XXXX to half
As on we top observed of Texas. September days an the despite of half in of this you chart in scarcity slide, outlier in pricing the temperature the XXXX August can and extreme was see the year, not
our we base expect driven was pricing comprised strong through by The point supply XXXX, a Slide scarcity see of result of assets. of the and low half renewable of next a percentage fundamental XXXX the based view shows XX recasting over a in greater more XXXX can the supply ERCOT of of combination the of the is decade, phenomenon bottom stack. as particularly on load discussed, just to more renewables, I As of
The of scarcity persistent going events expectation results reinforce our forward.
outcomes. per the This noticeable can a actually pricing have hour a expected hours renewable we see highlights that to of north have to XXXX XX to the small cast back $XXXX hours, in poor stack, compared in we in difference above assets of observe example, For the modeling megawatt supply year. incremental would number pricing stack in supply XXXX
next will that Last, long-term the forget in our even that not than let's scarcity fundamentals in power We remain it curves in the ERCOT in of the kick further outcomes. forward market. do increasing underlying the of not steadfast of XXXX, pricing reflect did earlier view, ORDC March beginning year, probability pricing
so a reflective discipline build. we discussed market, not thermal forward the the As new fundamentals to backwardation of of certain curves especially exert past, of were the related have level the merchant on in
renewable It a PPAs. development as will also future saturation point renewable reach for we impact
to out merchant secure Let's require to investments to years the not forget seven ability that capital. hedge five
market incremental that low clock the will justify some There addition, sufficient megawatt the pricing to around in to XXs In hour. adequate ERCOT investment, believe as per need to merchant must But are supports retirement this of decline a returns ignores revenues investments. as support the the lowest at pricing likely sustained have for merchant that the price levels renewables. those long-term cost likelihood well
fact, view price draconian this sustain any can analysis, run. by long reasonable In low the in the nor neither supported it market is
ERCOT current that the less they Our analysis predictable. will revenues, and market and indicates adequate in more rules volatile can be provide but will
our be the if We to see especially this will that assumed needed investment, support minimally margin will analysis. maintain market construct in of will fundamental level merchants a acceptable reserve as have we
that are cost stack, positioned and well existing remain with low critical ensuring to on and the generation risk. ERCOT supply cost, effective fleet, flexible, will assets our believe reliable valid We a
average and and delivered PJM PJM $X capacity Turning $XX energy. month Slide Unlike last CCGT XX. the from KW has now over per I From capacity to the several years. of to combination PJM, approximately relatively energy ERCOT, to on earned XXXX, am stable XXXX revenues the
moved In fact, and over has opposite capacity total, relatively profile a energy revenues and in directions, stable earnings historically in time. in resulting
demonstrate we phenomenon. graphs Slide depict The on this XX
half on see capacity that relatively were in XXXX, that spark low for you second of capacity year. four-year can high. when offset RTO example, by were at in the peak Similarly, the EMAAC spreads spark zone in in on spreads a at in were the gross peak zone prices were XXXX, prices peak For [ph] a
similar flat seen have to and this through in years dynamic capacity fashion, and in of XXXX. results overall over energy analysis a gradually out rising the We play PJM our pricing in fundamental expectations
the of older, analysis and prices, gas margins, driven expectation fundamental steam retirement of possibility slightly is the reserve gradually Our coal, rising were ongoing gas and natural prospects tightening units. by efficient of less oil
in from clears materially We expected that not highs lows. the with the capacity assume market change and recent also will results
stack intensity low supply low over While is irradiance. the the we renewables to with onshore largely expect for renewables wind will next favorable sun be least market and the PJM decade, added
we expect by standards a result, driven rather As than RPS economics. renewable will state be development [ph]
the the reflected in meaningfully it for and retirements supply band difficult the by capacity, to or is the new historical PJM other. As or market move returns incremental XXX,XXX megawatts either consistent with in one of direction over installed
we as remain levels expect consistent we have periods, will though year-to-year, it vary with to seen overall. revenues Just in recent historical total
and fleet as amount a to collect our believe markets. large EBITDA streams and units significant PJM both it for consolidated of Vistra continue generate As our of they significant efficient CCGT relates specifically, energy capacity revenue we will from to operations
could However, be decade. our retirement, over units gas PJM risk of units high at be coal, next as the costs oil other and will just coal
factored outlook. We risk takes retirements future to last on us which potential at our our our slide XX-year analysis, fundamental into any have EBITDA
generating analysis either stable relatively flow year to Slide generate EBITDA growth can return in of XX, to our invest before billion cash shareholders supports opportunities. view our a free to that adjusted in or $X including approximately growing wide to scenarios, Vistra range average of per growth on
achieve cash dollars could we quarter opportunities, million If deliver on our a of million incremental $XXX of average roughly to free we annual invest returns, $XX adjusted year our $XXX year an million on growth basis an flow and a projected on EBITDA. a targeted
acquisition of with and the return record project track plant regular CCGT basis. solar Crius that today tuck-in demonstrated on in Our of X in Upton a can of successful and we retail has West Texas, the the Odessa the on side high and growth opportunities be the the [indiscernible] Ambit battery finding development acquisition
of targeted retail, our likely or not In more small it renewables projects, return of of anticipated would is levels. cash the on opportunistic result to but expected would impact growth flows, growing this fact, portion in those exceeded in have projects over next overall storage, business a our only and plant decade. retirements require history battery only offset a expected that the executing exceed potential to Continuing than
to in capital available growth significant allocating after to have to annual could dividends, even fact, In cash still of amount a and district return shareholders. paying projects
achieve after XXXX long-term We meaningful to expect we'll target. our have beginning deploy cash leverage in we
growth, if attractive is we of not our discussion This we any to will test. always find litmus returns, return with to do capital mentioned always we opportunities shareholders. invest As at
In of that cost, confidence our and reinforces business leverage company as way resilient XX-year we is taking advantage of our have summary, model the our low a within business money assets compelling, and prospect positioned for integrated our the the low markets. assessment business attractive
a a for have you discussion and covered points. this We understanding a lot call better been worthwhile I hope you it I away from a has walk few of hope today. with key that
changes renewables importance is will market in penetration distribution threat an price to business, we and in on technological of many. but efficient peaking the a invest rather not the merely which insurmountable impacting during we disciplined unit And renewable of of to will the placing percentage higher reliance outcomes, CCGT more units high of the our intervals, change have assets the and increasing a First, business, manner. have our opportunity performance priced in
decade. risk at and MISO contributors Second, our well, could next of be EBITDA today. plants of meaningful PJM These our specifically are coal assets not certain of units over retirement the in
penetration Our a expenditures. exposed the to modeling supply through from assets, to on position are environmental will The higher X% And markets renewables XXXX at our achieve the given they of emissions where high lost heat be our our to XXXX few. most order of that assets that which X% target. stacks the in and estimated generation penetration rate older, favorable modest operate, be we very only of are a risk XXXX, the assets could greenhouse new gas EBITDA reduction own build in of X.X% adjusted suggests
And to significant a offset cash cash free to flow, retirement, can this growth we not percentage small our of an amount but only basis. Using investments only business. from on any a make annual expect asset grow attractive loss generate free third, of flow we to future EBITDA
returning our capital shareholders. cash leading makes markets to in With evolving in the it core market we also and markets in where electric sense, flow the U.S., participate position strong while free competitive the can power
We execution, shareholders business to we through financial believe our the is we not cube. efficiencies, melting discipline do ice value cost and can create a for continue management long-term. over and believe Rather, our
suggesting market tells this be undervalued, to believe evidence, discounting our the that continue period produce over ability long is and we basis we of future have compelling We and that piece a strong analysis value. stock to us of time, a We one must consistent our on our is believe math the can results execute. demonstrated
to the I Campbell. call turn now David over will
