everyone morning you, Thank Molly, good on the to call. and
times. Vistra, during extraordinary your in interest As appreciate especially always, we these
U.S. been been call on by adversely of many know and Vistra hardest prayers and We hit affected. heartfelt the those has our and Northeast virus. COVID-XX the thoughts have foremost, First the the may impacted family sends you to
convinced will better ever. that As hope, tough through I we and be it is get than we will this is, am as there as
And yet, hosting today. challenging dispersed which times be find has we the of that as call we of metroplex. disease, ourselves to harm unprecedented not I'd COVID-XX from team threatening well. is our management health population, economy as These an created across home society, already North with the but thought only face the our highly Texas where earnings and businesses never disruptive are I my the
proud more ever, such society, our they and every but company to have lead done work fulfill members it a than and Now our electricity day I lives. to question. an no am have pride is plant at Roughly to society, power that service to providing without X,XXX that powers the with to to Vistra essential team go obligation choice
operations. We to safe in would electricity. not U.S., sit Vistra of be Since without work a keep Vistra business we our from infrastructure and the today. has critical on equipment home, environment, for able healthy devices, and COVID-XX a keeping of essential prepare position COVID-XX medical actions here in relative onset as maintaining on running early focused to the our while the company been people power took and putting us strength
arrived. seeds we strength long ever fact, before sowed the financial COVID-XX In of
from intend the to A as we XXXX sheet is balance may like back our strong discussion very our IPPs levered of been important past, October and XXXX today. when to continue we've leverage different bankruptcy, And emerged the ever, as in a path on we having be we to target.
and our to nonspecific anticipated locations, excellence a Slide at stakeholders actions entry implement a and through cleaning to have of over of and high some well customers social on and level instituting testing because weekly U.S. for performing work commercial are on and and able emphasizing such expect the as: with COVID-XX, activities temperature the face provided coverings logged facilities these position our tracing; XXX executing daily We that of list remote moves, better been being X, and our a shifts employees questionnaires have between we basis have work first steps requirements; of transactions one all we new contact of distancing; level home maintain policy from capabilities thoroughly operational the deserve. market us work we Vistra for hygiene; requiring from and location and to generators
It note safety a be manner. these health is to must very important and in holistic that procedures implemented
we an necessary also We toward are health our three weeks started members. already with continuing This to About planning team coming location safety nonspecific guidelines team for work testing. to back ahead the developing plans. eye team evaluate has launched to and evolve our the work widespread ago,
end, of the afford that strong from the about And that work. return to be so it until will to feel been returning deliberate to has home productivity very we can working In our we our members safe frankly, not do team so. is we
of completed addition going to in side, perform team reliability On outages analyzed the ensure the each also in for of continue to work people their our sake maintenance midst or to XX complete schedule necessity scope and ahead. sacrificing on this months and the the are if summer outage, our We reliability. generation to for possible members locations without the of normal functions, spring pandemic rescheduling the plant critical scaling to to back
month have and X,XXX greater center contracted over outside the to XX And work. as of of states home. for our for of transition quarter COVID-XX the perhaps most I our maintained XX% with greater On Columbia, working in on and of am XX% while April, the call that contractors of cases these eliminating side, today, these sites first service than our from operations managing test at in important, the district and to both two of procedures positive most X,XXX approximately proud than only levels the population contributed to for employees a retail
by fees, for days those this provide by programs affected Fortunately, I have communities payment fully time implementing help payment individuals also waive and these that the plans am difficult we late to impacted been both recovered. customers and proud of COVID-XX. have to able our during extend
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reaffirming today. our In fact, financial guidance we are XXXX
to expectations a XXXX a in challenges few the meet imposed our forth in all by COVID-XX ability continue points, despite on confidence is X. critical to set Slide Our result of
XX% financial now is exposure the results. hedged price balance from direct business volatility for generation on commodity XXXX, limiting of our price risk near-term our First, of XXXX the approximately impact
XX% mitigating business Second, increase its impact from retail the residential expected the of we customer approximately derives residential business load our lower of in EBITDA will mass and business and negative XXXX, adjusted expect classes, volumes.
from U.S. it Vistra's around. operate. economic relatively to of Last, out of be approximately proving Historically, be other compared expect derived markets where XX% the and as downturns, EBITDA this outperformed Texas is we time ERCOT market, which other resilient has we the and to markets to during no adjusted coming is different
downturn and sheet strong in favorable our the COVID-XX-driven position is actions capital months in position. ahead. and preparedness confidence working gives operations implemented, And the economic power heading into liquidity to deliver through we our us and safe balance have fleet Our the ready reliable
estimate for critical the impossible of in estate, it virtually businesses their well-functioning as essential fortunately, making While pandemic Vistra negative COVID-XX is potential offers and society. is a impacts real retail, sectors hospitality, such which to and the electricity, to on various product, operations, airlines
operations balance for highly our supported produce stable to have impacts of price And hedge efficient have our results near-term wholesale range volatility. a strong opportunistically lean and Our sheet created of foundation a environments. in relatively wide to price power ability us minimizing financial fleet the generation integrated
come perplexing this why guidance the would to wouldn't our months. a yield such by conclusion at with relatively outlook. flow stock you cash me over several robust intact our and looking our to high to It be Unfortunately, free past remains stock a long-term at price able trade just XXXX
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we am of While September will allocation price approach our year, disappointing, long-term is markets year value our this this scheduled execute of as unlock a and we for target leverage deliver announce the capital to and continue in still of that plan, optimistic company. this our variety that stock I
X. Slide to now Turning
I and our this a important derived XXXX Vistra, our as seeing the an on community the have point This that, XXXX for financial observed relatively the proving we the slide, the on during by are impacts Similar my demand, approximately from markets with market. in mid consistent previously, to ERCOT of of ERCOT focus resilient. April. is is earlier comments, on XX% we mentioned of summarized each electricity we the recession to Given to be late what given impact to adjusted COVID-XX chart is as of EBITDA across
dramatic what substantial Moreover, could would be hedges will otherwise significant, portfolio we face, a appear residential from more expect declines to economic COVID-XX-led negative financial while the downturn. implications and their these demand mitigate Vistra's been have on retail
Turning to Slide X.
transactions Let's the Vistra's seeing first positive opportunistic executed Vistra commercial quarter. commercial volatility early in the a to team on first of in some market a benefit transactions in exceptional the we resulted segment. of read start in quarter, generation are These with anticipation and now our leaves materialize. the Early few tea
for dispatch guidance the on Slide local CTs a low variance These generation Vistra the XXXX our detail depict prices actions gas Basin for prices zone, quarter, capture first XX. teams congestion. high addition, range in walk our on West able to and In segments, original commercial to to forward and Permian in quarter financial plan ahead put our of more guidance contributing were commercial in we our to resulting the our from positive which our
some from to our generation balance we to a primary in retain price movements price of the where direct for volatile XX% exposure downside length on exposure, order day. limiting to the the Vistra's levels risk caught is being protect results. short summer, is the risk commodity to of summer from year, For of the impact financial typically of XXXX commodity balance ERCOT Vistra year the approximately in changes price hedged the
this to has forward and our as As be we at for guidance guidance particularly continue this manage price range, market always position planning case, able value will prices commodity been to purposes. expect well we we open risk the within below
biannual prices its supply Capacity, And while forecast, we and for we compared expected as report in do December CDR called this expect anticipated lower ERCOT's the demand or demand on in in Reserve lower in summer XXXX accounted estimate power reaffirmation. peak and impact demand guidance latest already today's to Demand XXXX, its have published
believe scarcity We this variable, will critical driving continue to be a pricing summer. the intervals incidence of weather
of wind Demand As temperatures drive low summer standard another or scarcity by and Reserve potential we XXXX this XXXX, has quarter deviation. of that the impact more to ORDC be in saw a high pronounced pricing, Operating during Curve even or shifted the have now the could
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And relatively coming we residential hot swings more air conditioning demand to both home. in in XXXX, residential peak expectations. demand decreased and Texas intervals. short, markets, increased all the In is than as scarcity could observing are brings to down result while demand weather-normalized is load day even demand higher in business a more across lower load, summer sensitive temperature in working due inelastic slightly residential higher on ERCOT from people especially pricing are still if Importantly,
degrees that summer it estimate the offset two impact increased we only to demand temperatures And the of could lower from COVID-XX. take
be summer driver As continue to year. financial Vistra's critical usual, the of ERCOT will a for results
from is in we risk lower guidance. or already financial conservative as have However, we mild embedded our believe weather demand our guidance
I'm segment. certain have expect Slide negative for demand Let's markets turn will XX. the that year. retail segment's We results retail do on across our on our attention now our to impacts our lower
a kilowatt expense bad of we ERCOT, primarily anticipating result that Texas, outside recognized Specifically, as customer are bad in This debt controls generally our of driven customers. of some portfolio markets financial distress risk higher and risk. the among debt COVID-XX local in resides higher XXXX electricity in In the our of assumes of ERCOT Utility electric supply bill cannot retail utility Commission due the as expense Public lower the to selection things, the Texas recover bills for pay to set other harmed a income these COVID-XX continuing power $X.XX nonpayment not includes, customers Electricity to hour their Program of enacted providers response. electric retail disconnecting by Relief providers This could program customers by be exchange a qualifying in and for who for to a mechanism in among unduly customers. unemployment or a
the will of higher go While what otherwise set have provide limited customers expense program to it only that debt bad applies to would number been to of through XXXX. a a expect qualify, mitigation even we steps meaningful in must
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existing our variances these customers. partially negative be residential expect offset We by among higher volumes to
levels during pandemic. focused service more on this We ever are maintaining superior customer than
lights depend our find the customers customers lives. distress payment fees, that some their programs and power result and financial daily instituted planned us on their themselves Our already have will as of to provide payment dates to COVID-XX, keep of we to late alternatives. extend Recognizing waive a in on
payment our Texans lights other TXU from families through which to help partner, around employees assistance Energy We uses XX,XXX to offer and continuing their year. donations are Aid, keep each on customers, bill
to a our safety people. the of customers commitment priority ensuring our as as of high Our is
As now we walk of we to can just XXXX table. in accounted forward you discussed for see our XX, the turn variables guidance Slide all
today, EBITDA some are before and first puts plan anticipated XXXX COVID-XX quarter ongoing above While us there, ranges flow that takes guidance adjusted growth get and offset we performance are cash there reaffirming our primarily, XXXX, free in adjusted our the operations impacts. by of
in approximately be for with some as Specifically, activities million driven hedging quarter, for initial by as as by result a dispatch generation potential forecast just we we to which partially opportunistic expense, compared expect lower up potential lower and first the segment prices the discussed, fuel to the of executed our guidance covenant. generation power $XX well offset I our as upside
variance our positive as forecast. our our to this in negative offset compared segment a expect retail initial by in million We guidance segment generation be $XX variance potentially to
expected and by as debt expected $XX of expected $XX well our This bad costs acquisitions, These reflect capture benefit estimated $XX million headwinds headwinds related our volumes an is forecasted synergies in an by our of COVID-XX. variance estimated increase from COVID-XX retail and comprised million million Ambit lower in to segments, from from residential as accelerated Crius an expense an of customers. offset offset for lower business driven million our XXXX, partially by higher volumes $XX retail
with the we expectation the the strong full of are XXXX be the which of model. within example total, we the a our ongoing well integrated is billion, first strong operations quarter, resiliency to tracking had EBITDA range adjusted In year the $X.XXX and another of $X.XXX billion yet for will that
growth billion to range billion. cash our guidance We adjusted of ongoing reaffirming $X.XX before flow free are also operations $X.XX
the toward its what on dynamics. COVID-XX COVID-XX market albeit could lower continue level, constructive have dampening impacts potential market economic have the we Despite environments. face, some is, that at future slowdown the lower have market demand XXXX, could are of that turn on a to into to that impacts a we expect Now let's from discussion ancillary XXXX, covered effect
tight this XXXX already financing. has secure COVID-XX-led were energy-only for relatively the fundamentals, slowing merchant The to challenge. is as evidence economic exacerbating supply-demand created a renewable was seeing development slated been recession uncertainty ERCOT, already to market beyond. in market, for that developers that difficult an project is with by Starting ERCOT, which online that is and with market we come are projects
of We fees their advance to environment. projects calls seeking a to to sell rights will number these have the a confidence developers projects for development very from of nominal in received given able today's lack be
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be As demand a when result, ERCOT growth reserve margins tight returns very could pre-COVID-XX to levels.
prices in markets the Similarly, the activity oil gas somewhat XXXX Higher we gas, natural reducing supply push could on making of drilling decreased operate. further power we in gas observing beyond. the are prices of up is natural the where price associated us bullish and
Texas like resiliency With ERCOT demand, relative these to we in we're in as the market. the combined backdrop, observing with factors position a our continue
Moving relates to equation, impact potential have markets, well New we it on an the both England on likelihood supply PJM thermal to for as of as similarly and the the to new ISO the expect retirements. incremental of side COVID-XX development as
side, the current development the economics is of declines, in On supportive our new did build. outlook not new support and the to demand forward view, prior development COVID-XX-related new even less market thermal
we PJM As development any or New ISO not this in result, new thermal either a England environment. would in expect
Further, present higher lower markets inefficient auction for assets as auction recent higher the helpful retirements England development challenged capacity to and are heat and we rate also generation. in PJM the clear the New in see demand existing energy expectations. could upcoming not incremental capacity ISO challenges uncertainty by or for The related are of cost
range shifting into of we we a the our financial account, Taking midpoint somewhat outcomes XXXX lower. could expect these in all factors see with of results
for outcome XX, describe the we of makes economic many COVID-XX-led challenging. severity uncertainties predicting duration the on which XXXX Slide even and likely including remain, As more a downturn,
track XXXX operations results. potentially with point fundamental suggested view our higher or XXXX expected COVID-XX, in adjusted line to could ongoing of EBITDA Prior than
in XX% XX, balance approximately see hedged to to range XX% and are the we to In hedged ERCOT we opportunistically outcomes, of to with in meaningful be now markets, of hedging order April albeit lower incremental which activity, helps risk hedge, distribution we we all expect next continuing guidance could this year. other outcomes the upside, to expect is XX% potential limit of however, midpoint. than that to XXXX flat potential guidance prices. expected power with are at chance XXXX there a Even previously given As still
impact, March around to forward X% or at our which operations ongoing looking be a than level of approximately XXXX million already would XX, reflected as $XXX curves of guidance COVID-XX to suggests $XXX million lower XXXX, Just XXXX a which adjusted EBITDA X% about uncertainty reduction. midpoint
As we have out shifted three forward back fall. there forward is this possibility begins see We the becomes once curves could years to have play this liquid. seen, in however, a past ERCOT curve of as upward each the the and of still reflect fundamentals again half for we believe curve more the XXXX
COVID-XX So related the likely lower probability uncertainty. the to is due
addition our scenarios looking in we drivers current also potential outcomes In results. on views of demand economic XXXX inform at a to curves, the in and supply to modeled order for range number financial better forward fundamental of downturn
trended months, has two the peak range past the ERCOT's in Over below load of X% expectations.
reopen, the start Texas narrow. to economy begins As this may see to gap we
of its downturn ERCOT's recovery, However, CDR given trends below review the in consecutive two years economic risk our scenarios peak of included forecast recent most report. slower demand of
downturn is met as the as be its from supply that not of in the come supply overstating when in scenarios, significantly despite the additions potential assume an risk pipeline CDR the of certain criteria. representation trend testing online of new results the has forecast the the to Nevertheless, to the that new investments. generation but for current a purpose a On the conservative tool, the additions majority our or clearly side, have supply XXXX development projected CDR as prospects new will effort generation environment impacted historical
holds we estimate our XXXX EBITDA X/X estimates of XXXX we of from growth pre-COVID-XX currently As the to of these still our different many XX% a is potential analysis pre-COVID fundamental that result there demand in levels from that most still can to of achieve the XXXX. outcomes, even a think our drivers, possibility and XXXX downside constant we results so guidance And XXXX variables case to flat XXXX, of punitive meaningful midpoint. within would range with be to influencing supply
before deliver even ongoing to that of expected means we punitive this flow ratio, by will in $X have XXXX. to we we to to XX% conversion in growth, strong liquidity. expect even operations created And probability translate repurchases. able most shareholders a we this XX% than our we in through more still adjusted Importantly, expect flow free to dividends billion of would approximately pandemic maintain flow adjusted free to an $X.X expect be more extremely and very return cash our that tail or free With case, EBITDA recession share an event, significant cash low billion modeled cash from will meaning
more businesses discounting and many have can yet is our In a these cash believe uncertain in our view, been investors we to with The not times, relative relative of a economically to suspect XX%. stock Vistra to say this. has before, appears to our market I continued XX% the be than yield Even flow unwarranted. in decline stock should free trade range today resilience. recent safety stock for our fled in the
We and advantage-generating comprised to volatility. is our fundamentals low-cost, retail of are say low-debt It the product risk of businesses supply strong. The our business and and essential to leading frustrating business mitigate designed an model assets is manage least. integrated
levels in robust while free to amount returning should flow both capital cash Our a to modest business reinvest of the enable at significant us investors.
the that we announce debt are our on keeping XXXX, be our will the to full reach we plans we fair our as in However, and value. allocation capital and path faith down pay
of prove execution now I this thesis. continue over call the will turn ball As David out to on always, our and we keep eye will the to Campbell.
