RISK FACTORS
The following risk factor supplements the information contained under “Risk Factors” in the accompanying prospectus. You should consult your financial and legal advisors about the risks of investing in the debt securities and the suitability of your investment in light of your particular situation. Mexico disclaims any responsibility for advising you on these matters.
There can be no assurances that Mexico’s credit ratings will improve or remain stable, or that they will not be downgraded, suspended or cancelled by the rating agencies.
Mexico’s long-term public external indebtedness was downgraded in the spring of 2020 by each of the three major credit rating agencies. On March 26, 2020, S&P cut Mexico’s rating from BBB+ to BBB, and on April 15, 2020, Fitch cut Mexico’s debt rating from BBB to BBB-, both downgrades due to expected economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and lower oil prices. On November 11, 2020, Fitch affirmed its BBB- rating with a stable outlook, and on December 2, 2020, S&P affirmed its BBB rating with a negative outlook. On April 17, 2020, Moody’s downgraded Mexico’s debt rating from A3 to Baa1 and maintained its negative outlook, citing a material decline in Mexico’s medium-term economic growth prospects and continued weakening of the financial and operational condition of Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX).
Ratings address the creditworthiness of Mexico and the likelihood of timely payment of Mexico’s long-term debt securities. Ratings are not a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell securities and may be changed, suspended or withdrawn at any time. Mexico’s current ratings and the rating outlooks currently assigned to it depend, in part, on economic conditions and other factors that affect credit risk and are outside the control of Mexico, as well as assessments of the creditworthiness of its productive state-owned enterprises. Certain ratings agencies may also downgrade PEMEX’s credit ratings, as they have in the past, and their assessment of PEMEX’s creditworthiness may affect Mexico’s credit ratings.
There can be no assurances that Mexico’s credit ratings will be maintained or that they will not be downgraded, suspended or cancelled. Any credit rating downgrade, suspension or cancellation may have an adverse effect on the market price and the trading of the notes.
Changes in the interest rate environment could adversely impact the trading price of the notes.
We expect that the trading price of the notes will depend on a variety of factors, including, without limitation, the interest rate environment.
If interest rates, or expected future interest rates, rise during the terms of the notes, the price of the notes will likely decrease. The condition of the financial markets and prevailing interest rates have fluctuated in the past and are likely to fluctuate in the future, which could have an adverse effect on the trading price of the notes. Because interest rates and interest rate expectations are influenced by a wide variety of factors, many of which are beyond our control, we cannot assure you that changes in interest rates or interest rate expectations will not adversely affect the trading price of the notes.
The COVID-19 outbreak is adversely affecting Mexico’s economy, and the impact is material.
The global outbreak of COVID-19, and public health measures to mitigate it, are having a material adverse impact on the economy in Mexico and around the world. The scope, magnitude and duration of the impact on Mexico cannot yet be determined.
Cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Mexico since February 2020, and the Mexican government has taken extensive steps designed to mitigate the spread of the disease and its impact on public health. See Mexico’s annual report on Form 18-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019, filed on September 10, 2020, as amended by the Form 18-K/A filed on November 16, 2020 and the Form 18-K/A filed on January 4, 2021. The efficacy of these steps cannot yet be evaluated, and it is highly uncertain how long and in what form they will remain in effect. The actual death count is likely to exceed official estimates.
These public-health measures, and the consequences of similar measures in other countries, have had material adverse effects on economic activity in Mexico. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis has contributed to sharply lower and more volatile world prices for oil and gas, which affect the Mexican economy and the financial condition of PEMEX. The Mexican government and Banco de México have announced steps designed to address these adverse economic impacts, and they may take additional steps in the future. See Mexico’s annual report on Form 18-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019, filed on September 10, 2020, as amended by the Form 18-K/A filed on November 16, 2020 and the Form 18-K/A filed on January 4, 2021.
The impact of these matters on key measures of economic performance remains highly uncertain. Recently, interest rates and inflation have been volatile and uncertain, and the value of the Mexican peso has declined. See Mexico’s annual report on Form 18-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019, filed on September 10, 2020, as amended by the Form 18-K/A filed on November 16, 2020 and the Form 18-K/A filed on January 4, 2021. There have been adverse impacts on economic activity (including a decrease in GDP), employment, foreign investment and international trade, among other areas. These adverse impacts are likely to continue, and they could adversely affect the balance of payments, international reserves and public finance. While the duration of these effects remains highly uncertain, their nature and magnitude are likely to be material and adverse.
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