But there’s a compelling alternative theory.
Poring through hundreds of pages of documents submitted to the government by the companies and transcripts of testimony in front of Congress makes it clear that going from four competitors to three — AT&T, Verizon and a combinedT-Mobile-Sprint — wouldn’t pose the problems that so many fear.
Every textbook would say that fewer competitors results in high prices. But if theSprint-T-Mobile deal was given the green light, it would almost empirically create, at least in the short term, more competition for AT&T and Verizon, not less.
The entire premise of the deal is that by merging, the two weakest companies in the sector would be able to build out a meaningful a 5G network, possibly even more quickly than AT&T and Verizon.
IfT-Mobile and Sprint built out that network, the only way to make the math of the deal work would be to steal customers from AT&T and Verizon. The combined company would need to take millions of customers away from the big players. The only way to do that: lower prices. That’s especially true now that companies like AT&T, thanks to its new Time Warner holdings, will be able to offer customers extra perks that customers ofT-Mobile and Sprint won’t be able to get.
John Legere,T-Mobile’s chief executive, was questioned about pricing during congressional testimony in late June. He explained that he would “have every incentive from an economic and business perspective to lower prices to attract new customers and drive customer usage to fill its greatly increased and less expensive capacity.”
Perhaps the more persuasive comment came from Sprint’s chief executive, Marcelo Claure, who pointed out that little had changed for the better since his predecessor, Dan Hesse, testified before Congress seven years ago and voiced concerns about the proposed merger ofT-Mobile and AT&T.
At the time, Mr. Claure told Congress, AT&T and Verizon controlledtwo-thirds of the market — the same share they control today.
“And they have increasingly found ways to use their scale to cement their advantages rather than to compete vigorously with others in the marketplace,” he said. He punctuated his point by saying the market caps of AT&T and Verizon are each twice the size of a combinedT-Mobile-Sprint.
In truth, today’s wireless market is bifurcated between the haves and the have-nots. It’s almost as if the telecommunication market were two markets. AT&T and Verizon serve the wealthier and business customers, andT-Mobile and Sprint serve more price-conscious consumers.
T-Mobile in particular has long been described as a “maverick” — that’s a classic antitrust term for companies that are viewed as holding down prices in an industry, the way Southwest Airlines has long done. The worry has long been that the combined company would raise prices. But as logical as that sounds, it’s likely to do the opposite.
Robert Bork, President Ronald Reagan’s Supreme Court nominee in 1987, wrote a seminal book, “The Antitrust Paradox,” which argued that it was possible for a market to go from four rivals to three and see economic competition go up.
Of course, it is possible that a price war could end with the three companies deciding to “rationalize” their pricing just the way the large airlines have. That is not a trivial issue. But many industries with three