Exhibit 99.E
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
The information included in this section supplements the information about Uruguay corresponding to the headings below that are contained in Exhibit D to the 2005 Annual Report, as amended. To the extent that the information included in this section differs from the information set forth in the 2005 Annual Report, you should rely on the information in this section.
THE ECONOMY
Principal Sectors of the Economy
The following table sets forth percentage changes from prior periods for gross domestic product by sector, based on 1983 prices to eliminate distortions introduced by changes in relative prices.
Change in Gross Domestic Product by Sector (% change from previous year, 1983 prices) |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
Agriculture, livestock and fishing | 5.1 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 8.3 |
Mining | (37.6) | 14.1 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 15.0 |
Manufacturing | (13.9) | 4.7 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 8.4 |
Electricity, gas and water | (0.6) | (7.4) | 1.8 | 5.8 | (1.5) |
Construction | (22.0) | (7.1) | 7.5 | 4.2 | 14.0 |
Commerce, restaurants and hotels | (24.5) | (1.0) | 21.3 | 10.1 | 8.5 |
Transportation, storage and communications | (9.1) | 3.1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 12.0 |
Real estate, business, financial and insurance services | (0.9) | (5.3) | (1.7) | (3.5) | 1.9 |
Other services (2)/(3) | (3.3) | 0.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Total GDP | (11.0) | 2.2 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
_____________
(1) | Preliminary data. | |
(2) | Includes public sector services and other services. | |
(3) | Includes mining, public sector services, real estate, business, financial, insurance and other services. |
| | | |
Source: Banco Central
Balance Of Payments And Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments
For the 12 months ended September 30, 2006, Uruguay’s balance of payments registered a surplus of US$645 million compared to a surplus of US$620 million in 2005.
Merchandise Trade
The following tables set forth information on exports and imports for the periods indicated.
Merchandise Trade (in millions of US$ and % of total exports/imports) |
| | | | |
Exports (FOB) | | | | |
Traditional | US$1,018 | 29.8 | US$1,270 | 32.1 |
Wool | 137 | 4.0 | 168 | 4.2 |
Meat | 799 | 23.4 | 1,005 | 25.4 |
Other | 82 | 2.4 | 97 | 2.5 |
Non-traditional | 2,399 | 70.2 | 2,682 | 67.9 |
Rice | 201 | 5.9 | 219 | 5.5 |
Textiles | 117 | 3.4 | 101 | 2.5 |
Chemicals | 152 | 4.4 | 180 | 4.6 |
Other | | | | |
Total exports | | | | |
| | | | |
Imports (CIF) | | | | |
Consumer goods | US$721 | 18.6 | US$876 | 18.4 |
Intermediate Goods | 2,644 | 68.2 | 3,277 | 68.6 |
Capital goods | | | | |
Total imports | | | | |
Trade balance | | | | |
_____________
Source: Banco Central.
Geographical Distribution of Merchandise Trade (millions of US$, unless otherwise indicated) |
| | |
Exports (FOB) | | | | |
Americas: | | | | |
Argentina | US$267 | 7.8% | US$302 | 7.6% |
Brazil | 460 | 13.5 | 583 | 14.7 |
United States | 763 | 22.3 | 520 | 13.2 |
Other | | | | |
Total Americas | | | | |
Europe: | | | | |
European Union | | | | |
France | 31 | 0.9 | 33 | 0.8 |
Germany | 145 | 4.2 | 165 | 4.2 |
Italy | 93 | 2.7 | 112 | 2.8 |
United Kingdom | 85 | 2.5 | 95 | 2.4 |
Other Europ. Union | 237 | 6.9 | 254 | 6.4 |
Total Europ. Union | 590 | 17.3 | 659 | 16.7 |
EFTA(2) and other | | | | |
Total Europe | | | | |
Africa | 105 | 3.1 | 175 | 4.4 |
Asia | 278 | 8.1 | 352 | 8.9 |
Middle East | 162 | 4.7 | 177 | 4.5 |
Other | | | | |
Total | | | | |
| | | | |
Imports(CIF) | | | | |
Americas: | | | | |
Argentina | 786 | 20.3% | 1,079 | 22.6% |
Brazil | 825 | 21.3 | 1,078 | 22.6 |
United States | 259 | 6.7 | 326 | 6.8 |
Other | | | | |
Total Americas | | | | |
Europe: | | | | |
European Union | | | | |
France | 68 | 1.7 | 82 | 1.7 |
Germany | 88 | 2.3 | 99 | 2.1 |
Italy | 76 | 2.0 | 82 | 1.7 |
United Kingdom | 34 | 0.9 | 46 | 1.0 |
Other Europ. Union | 142 | 3.7 | 160 | 3.3 |
Total Europ. Union | 407 | 10.5 | 469 | 9.8 |
EFTA(2) and other | | | | |
Total Europe | | | | |
Africa | 334 | 8.6 | 172 | 3.6 |
Asia | 471 | 12.1 | 603 | 12.6 |
Middle East | 13 | 0.3 | 142 | 3.0 |
Other | | | | |
Total | | | | |
_____________
(2) | European Free Trade Association. |
Source: Banco Central.
Services Trade
Gross tourism receipts, totaled US$456 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 compared to US$464 million for the same period in 2005. The number of tourist arrivals during the nine months ended September 30, 2006 totaled approximately 1,331,000, a decline of approximately 4% with respect to the same period in 2005. In terms of country of origin, the number of tourists from Argentina declined during the first nine months of 2006, evidencing the adverse impact of the interruption of international traffic caused by Argentine demonstrators opposing the construction of two pulp mills in the Fray Bentos region. The decline in Argentine tourists was partially offset by an increase in the number of tourists arriving from non-neighboring countries.
Capital Account
Capital inflows continued to increase in 2006 as foreign direct investment reached US$1,160 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2006, and the government took advantage of favorable international capital market conditions to borrow with a view to prepaying amounts outstanding with the IMF in full, funding in part its financing needs for 2007 and reprofiling its medium and long-term debt maturities. Uruguay’s capital account recorded a surplus of US$387 million as of September 30, 2006.
Banco Central’s international reserve assets increased slightly in 2006 totaling US$3,091 million at December 31, 2006 after giving effect to repayments of SDR 1,814 million (approximately US$2,694 million) to the IMF and the incurrence of US$2,700 million of debt through the issuance of long-term debt securities in the international capital markets, compared to US$3,078 million at December 31, 2005.
Monetary and Financial System
Liquidity and Credit Aggregates
The following table sets forth the composition of Uruguay’s monetary base (expressed in terms of Banco Central’s monetary liabilities) and international reserve assets as of the dates indicated.
Monetary Base and Banco Central's International Reserve Assets (1) (in millions of US$) |
| |
| | | | | |
Currency, including cash in vaults at banks | US$ 367 | US$ 418 | US$ 538 | US$ 717 | US$ 904 |
Others | | | | | |
Monetary Base | | | | | |
| | | | | |
Banco Central international reserve assets | | | | | |
| | | | | |
_____________
(1) | All figures are at market value as of the date indicated. |
(3) | This amount does not include US$507 million held by the FESB at December 31, 2002 and US$224 million at December 31, 2003. |
(4) | This amount includes US$1,044 million of reserves and voluntary deposits of the Uruguayan banking system, including US$495 million of Banco de la República, with Banco Central. |
(5) | This amount includes US$1,625 million of reserves and voluntary deposits of the Uruguayan banking system, including US$724 million of Banco de la República, with Banco Central. |
(6) | This amount includes US$1,649 million of reserves and voluntary deposits of the Uruguayan banking system, including US$752 million of Banco de la República, with Banco Central. |
(7) | This amount includes US$792 million of reserves and voluntary deposits of the Uruguayan banking system, including US$1,749 million of Banco de la República, with Banco Central. |
The following tables show selected monetary indicators and liquidity and credit aggregates for the periods indicated.
Selected Monetary Indicators
(percentage change based on peso-denominated data)
| | | | | |
M1 (% change) (2) | 0.6% | 34.4% | 14.2% | 34.0% | 24.0% |
M2 (% change) (3) | (7.9)% | 29.4% | 13.5% | 27.2% | 22.1% |
Credit from the financial system (% change) (4) | (54.9)% | (14.8)% | 6.7% | 15.0% | 23.6% |
Average annual peso deposit rate | 62.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
_____________
(2) | Currency in circulation plus peso-denominated demand deposits. |
(3) | M1 plus peso-denominated savings deposits. |
(4) | Peso-denominated bank credit to the non-financial sector. |
Source: Boletin Estadistico and Banco Central
Liquidity and Credit Aggregates (in millions of US$) |
| |
| | | | | |
Liquidity aggregates (at period end): | | | | | |
Currency, excluding cash in vaults at banks | US$282 | US$322 | US$410 | US$552 | US$661 |
M1(2) | 643 | 802 | 1019 | 1493 | 1829 |
M2(3) | 869 | 1043 | 1317 | 1831 | 2209 |
M3(4) | 7,645 | 8,114 | 8,782 | 9,481 | 10,351 |
| | | | | |
Credit aggregates (at period end) (6): | | | | | |
Resident private sector credit | 6,257 | 3,930 | 3,598 | 3,717 | 4,165 |
Public sector credit | | | | | |
Total sector credit | | | | | |
| | | | | |
Deposits (7): | | | | | |
Uruguayan pesos deposits | US$631 | US$756 | US$941 | US$1,304 | US$1,609 |
Foreign-currency deposits | | | | | |
Total deposits | | | | | |
Deposits of non-residents | | | | | |
_____________
(2) | Currency in circulation plus peso-denominated demand deposits. |
(3) | M1 plus peso-denominated savings deposits. |
(4) | M2 plus deposits of residents in foreign currency, principally U.S. dollars. |
(5) | Of which approximately US$1,678 million (based on November 30, 2003 information) comprise time deposits with Banco de la República with maturities rescheduled pursuant to Law 17,523 of August 4, 2002. |
(6) | Total gross bank credit to the non-financial sector. |
(7) | Total deposits of the non-financial sector in the banking system. |
Source: Banco Central
Inflation
The following table shows changes in the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index for the periods indicated.
Inflation |
| |
| Percent Change from Previous Year at Period End |
| | |
2002 | 25.9% | 64.6% |
2003 | 10.2 | 20.5 |
2004 | 7.6 | 5.1 |
2005 | 4.9 | (2.2) |
2006 | 6.4 | 8.2 |
Twelve months ended February 28, 2007 | 6.8 | 8.1 |
______________
Source: Banco Central and INE
| See "Main Macroeconomic Assumptions For 2007." |
Foreign Exchange and International Reserves
Foreign Exchange
The following table shows the high, low, average and period-end peso/U.S. dollar exchange rates for the dates and periods indicated.
Exchange Rates(1) (pesos per US$) |
| | | | |
2002 | 32.35 | 14.02 | 21.22 | 27.20 |
2003 | 29.55 | 26.15 | 28.17 | 29.30 |
2004 | 29.80 | 26.00 | 28.65 | 26.35 |
2005 | 26.25 | 23.15 | 24.42 | 24.10 |
2006 | 24.40 | 23.70 | 24.01 | 24.40 |
_________________
(1) | Daily interbank end-of-day bid rates |
Source: | Banco Central | |
International Reserves
The following table shows the composition of the international reserve assets of Uruguay’s banking system at each of the dates indicated.
International Reserve Assets of the Banking System (in millions of US$) |
| |
| | | | | |
Banco Central | US$772 | US$2,087(2) | US$2,512 | US$3,078 | US$3,091 |
Commercial Banks | 2,707 | 3,629 | 4,704 | 4,794 | 4,438 |
International reserve assets | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
_____________
(2) | This amount does not include US$507.5 million held by the Fondo de Estabilidad del Sistema Bancario or FESB at December 31, 2002 and US$224.1 million at December 31, 2003. |
Source: Banco Central
The Financial Sector
The Banking System in 2006
During 2006, the non-financial private sector’s deposits with the banking system grew and the share of non-performing loans (NPLs) on total loans decreased. Deposits with the domestic banking sector increased by US$797 million in 2006, to a total of US$9,751 million as of December 31. Credit extended to the non-financial sector increased by US$381 million in the same period, to a total of US$4,494 million at December 31, 2006. Solvency ratios of the banking system on average remained stable above the 8.0% total capital to risk-weighted asset ratio required by Banco Central. At December 31, 2006, the regulatory capital of private banks was 2.1 times above the minimum regulatory requirement, while the share of NPLs on total loans (based on client payment behavior) decreased from 6.5% at year-end 2005 to 3.6% in December 31, 2006.
Public Sector Finances
Public Sector Accounts
Preliminary figures of the government indicate that during 2006 the central government’s current expenditures totaled Ps.135 billion, an increase of 5.6% in real terms compared to 2005. Revenues for 2006 amounted to approximately Ps.102 billion in 2006, an increase of 14.9% in real terms as compared to 2005.
For 2006, the consolidated public sector had a deficit estimated by the government at Ps.2.9 billion, which represented 0.6% of GDP, as compared to a deficit of Ps.3.3 billion (0.8% of GDP) in 2005. The overall public sector primary balance for 2006 evidenced a surplus of 3.8% of GDP, as compared to a surplus of 3.9% of GDP in 2005. During 2006, non-financial public sector enterprises saw their surplus (and therefore their contribution to the overall public sector surplus) decrease, largely due to the adverse impact of the price of oil on ANCAP (the state-owned oil refining company) and UTE (the state-owned electric company), which increased oil imports to offset the adverse impact on hydroelectric power generation attributable to the drought that affected the level of Uruguay’s rivers in the first quarter of 2006.
The government approved legislation to reform the tax system on December 27, 2006 and will seek to complete the implementation of the reform by July 2007.
Main Macroeconomic Assumptions For 2007
The Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Central Bank of Uruguay have announced the following policy targets and macroeconomic assumptions for 2007:
| Real GDP | 5.3% |
| Current account deficit | (4.1)% of GDP |
| Average Real Wages | 6.1% |
| Overall Public Sector Primary Surplus | 4.0% |
| Increase in Central Bank International Reserves | US$200 million |
| CPI Inflation rate | 4.5%-6.5% |
Public Sector Debt
As of September 30, 2006, Uruguay’s total gross public sector debt totaled US$14,616 million, which represented 77% of GDP as of such date compared with 83% of GDP at December 2005. During the second half of 2006, Uruguay issued the following series of debt securities (in millions):
5.00% UI Bonds due 2018 | Ps.16,641(1) |
8.00% US$ Bonds due 2022 | US$1,105 |
7.625% US$ Bonds due 2036 | US$786 |
2.23% Japanese Yen Bonds due 2017 | ¥30,000 |
_____________
(1) Approximately US$700 million.
Uruguay formerly maintained a program with the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”), under which net disbursements totaling US$1.1 billion between June 2005 and May 2008 were anticipated. The program with the IMF included certain quantitative objectives as well as performance criteria that Uruguay had to meet. As part of its strategy to finance its external liabilities, in August and November 2006 Uruguay prepaid obligations to the IMF in amounts of SDR619.9 million (approximately US$916.4 million) and SDR726.7 million (approximately US$1.1 billion), respectively, thereby prepaying in full all of Uruguay’s outstanding obligations to the IMF. The prepayment was made with the proceeds of long-term debt securities offered in the international capital markets and reserves. Subsequent to the IMF’s completion of its final review under the stand-by facility on December 22, 2006, at the request of Uruguay, the 2005 Stand-By Facility was terminated.