RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
The information included in this section supplements the information about Uruguay corresponding to the headings below that are contained in Exhibit D to Uruguay’s annual report on Form 18-K, as amended, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2006. To the extent that the information included in this section differs from the information set forth in the annual report, you should rely on the information in this section.
THE ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product and Structure of the Economy
The following table sets forth information regarding GDP (in real terms) and expenditures for the periods indicated. The percentage figures included in this table are based on 1983 prices to eliminate distortions introduced by changes in relative prices.
Change in Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure
(% change from previous year except as otherwise indicated, 1983 prices)
| | | | | |
Government consumption | (4.8) | 2.5 | 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
Private consumption | 2.0 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 7.6 |
Gross fixed investment | (11.4) | 30.2 | 24.5 | 32.0 | 4.6 |
Exports of goods and services | 4.2 | 30.4 | 16.3 | 7.6 | 4.5 |
Imports of goods and services | 5.8 | 26.8 | 10.1 | 16.0 | 5.8 |
(2) | January 1-June 30, 2007 compared to January 1-June 30, 2006. |
Source: Banco Central
Principal Sectors of the Economy
The following table sets forth the components of Uruguay’s GDP and their respective growth rates for the periods indicated. The percentage figures included in this table are based on 1983 prices to eliminate distortions introduced by changes in relative prices.
Change in Gross Domestic Product by Sector (% change from previous year, 1983 prices) |
| | | | | |
Agriculture, livestock and fishing | 10.5 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 0.1 |
Manufacturing | 4.7 | 20.8 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
Electricity, gas and water | (7.4) | 1.9 | 5.9 | (1.5) | 8.6 |
Construction | (7.1) | 7.6 | 4.1 | 14.0 | 0.1 |
Commerce, restaurants and hotels | (1.0) | 21.4 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 7.8 |
Transportation, storage and communications | 3.1 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 10.6 |
Other services (2)/(3) | 1.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
Total GDP | 2.2 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 5.8 |
(1) | Preliminary data. |
(2) | Includes public sector services and other services. |
(3) | Includes mining, public sector services, real estate, business, financial, insurance and other services. |
(4) | January 1-June 30, 2007 compared to January 1-June 30, 2006. |
Source: Banco Central
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN TRADE
Balance of Payments
For the first six months of 2007, Uruguay’s balance of payments, after errors and omissions, registered a surplus of US$613 million, compared to a surplus of US$404 million for the same period in 2006.
Current Account
The current account displayed a surplus of US$34 million in the first semester of 2007, compared to a deficit of US$33 million for the same period in 2006.
Capital Account
Net capital inflows in the first six months of 2007 amounted to US$642 million, of which US$292 million corresponds to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In the same period of 2006, net capital inflows totaled US$366 million.
During the first sixth months of 2007, the Government accessed the international capital markets on three occasions, raising a total of approximately US$1,256 million in net proceeds. See “–Public Sector Debt”.
From December 31, 2006 to September 30, 2007, Banco Central's international reserve assets registered an increase of US$449 million, reaching a level of US$3,540 million, of which US$1,678 million represent foreign-currency deposits of the Uruguayan banking system with Banco Central.
Foreign Trade
Merchandise Trade
The following tables set forth information on exports and imports for the periods indicated.
Merchandise Trade
(in millions of US$ and % of total exports/imports)
| | | | |
Exports (FOB) | | | | |
Traditional | US$936 | 31.9 | US$899 | 27.5 |
Wool | 114 | 3.9 | 144 | 4.4 |
Meat | 763 | 26.0 | 680 | 20.8 |
Other | 59 | 2.0 | 75 | 2.3 |
Non-traditional | 1,995 | 68.1 | 2,369 | 72.5 |
Rice | 145 | 4.9 | 193 | 5.9 |
Textiles | 180 | 6.1 | 230 | 7.0 |
Chemicals | 122 | 4.2 | 171 | 5.2 |
Other | 1,548 | 52.8 | 1,775 | 54.3 |
Total exports | US$2,931 | 100.00 | US$3,268 | 100.00 |
| | | | |
Imports (CIF) | | | | |
Consumer goods | US$608 | 17.4 | US$767 | 19.2 |
Intermediate Goods | 2,450 | 69.9 | 2,698 | 67.5 |
Capital goods | 445 | 12.7 | 532 | 13.3 |
Total imports | US$3,503 | 100.00 | US$3,997 | 100.00 |
Trade balance | US$(572) | | US$(729) | |
| (1) | Preliminary data. |
| (2) | Period from January 1, 2006 through September 30, 2006. |
| (3) | Period from January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007. |
Source: Banco Central
Geographical Distribution of Merchandise Trade
(millions of US$, unless otherwise indicated)
| | | | | |
Exports (FOB) | | | | | |
Americas: | | | | | |
Argentina | US$225 | 7.7 | US$313 | 10.0 | |
Brazil | 398 | 13.6 | 492 | 15.1 | |
United States | 410 | 14.0 | 415 | 12.7 | |
Other | 490 | 16.7 | 536 | 16.4 | |
Total Americas | 1,523 | 52.0 | US$1,756 | 53.7 | |
Europe: | | | | | |
European Union | | | | | |
France | 24 | 0.8 | 26 | 0.8 | |
Germany | 119 | 4.1 | 158 | 4.8 | |
Italy | 87 | 3.0 | 79 | 2.4 | |
United Kingdom | 69 | 2.4 | 90 | 2.8 | |
Other European Union | 180 | 6.1 | 201 | 6.2 | |
Total European Union | 479 | 16.3 | 619 | 18.9 | |
EFTA(2) and other | 260 | 8.9 | 166 | 5.1 | |
Total Europe | 739 | 25.2 | 785 | 24.0 | |
Africa | 122 | 4.2 | 100 | 3.1 | |
Asia | 249 | 8.5 | 283 | 8.7 | |
Middle East | 141 | 4.8 | 120 | 3.7 | |
Other | 157 | 5.4 | 224 | 6.9 | |
Total | US$2,931 | 100.00 | US$3,268 | 100.00 | |
| | | | | |
Imports(CIF) | | | | | |
Americas: | | | | | |
Argentina | US$771 | 22.0 | 906 | 23.0 | |
Brazil | 778 | 22.2 | 960 | 24.0 | |
United States | 249 | 7.1 | 274 | 6.9 | |
Other | 632 | 18.0 | 642 | 16.1 | |
Total Americas | US$2,430 | 69.4 | US$2,782 | 69.6 | |
Europe: | | | | | |
European Union | | | | | |
France | 60 | 1.7 | 52 | 1.3 | |
Germany | 73 | 2.1 | 80 | 2.0 | |
Italy | 60 | 1.7 | 65 | 1.6 | |
United Kingdom | 25 | 0.7 | 31 | 0.8 | |
Other European Union | 117 | 3.3 | 145 | 3.6 | |
Total European Union | 335 | 9.6 | 373 | 9.3 | |
EFTA(2) and other | 71 | 2.0 | 216 | 5.4 | |
Total Europe | 406 | 11.6 | 589 | 14.7 | |
Africa | 168 | 4.8 | 30 | 0.8 | |
Asia | 409 | 11.7 | 566 | 14.2 | |
Middle East | 79 | 2.3 | 12 | 0.3 | |
Other | 12 | 0.3 | 18 | 0.5 | |
Total | US$3,503 | 100.00 | US$3,997 | 100.00 | |
| | | | | |
| (1) | Preliminary data. |
| (2) | Period from January 1, 2006 through September 30, 2006. |
| (3) | Period from January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007. |
Source: Banco Central
Services Trade
Gross tourism receipts totaled US$466 million for the six months ended June 30, 2007, compared to US$365 million for the same period in 2006, representing an increase of 27.7%. This increase in tourism revenues is attributable to an increase of 16% in the average daily per capita expenditure and of 19% in the average length of stay, which offset the decline in the number of tourist arrivals. Tourist arrivals during the first six months of 2007 totaled approximately 931,000, a decline of approximately 7% with respect to the same period in 2006.
MONETARY SYSTEM
Banco Central
Liquidity and Credit Aggregates
The following table sets forth the composition of Uruguay’s monetary base (expressed in terms of Banco Central’s monetary liabilities) and international reserve assets as of the dates indicated.
Monetary Base and Banco Central's International Reserve Assets (1) (in millions of US$) |
| | | |
| | | | | | |
Currency, including cash in vaults at banks | US$ 418 | US$ 538 | US$ 717 | US$ 904 | US$ 846 | |
Others | 70 | 63 | 303 | 206 | 385 | |
Monetary Base | US$ 488 | US$ 601 | US$ 1,020 | US$ 1,111 | US$ 1,231 | |
| | | | | | |
Banco Central international reserve assets | US$ 2,081(3) | US$ 2,512 | US$ 3,078 | US$ 3,091 | US$ 3,539 | |
| | | | | | |
Including: voluntary reserves of the Uruguayan banking system | US$ 1,044 | US$ 1,625 | US$ 1,649 | US$ 1,749 | US$ 1,641 | |
of which: deposits of Banco de la República | US$ 495 | US$ 724 | US$ 752 | US$ 792 | US$ 841 | |
| | | | | | |
(1) | All figures are at market value as of the date indicated. |
(3) | This amount does not include US$224 million held by the Fondo de Estabilidad del Sistema Bancario (FESB) at December 31, 2003. |
Source: Banco Central
The following tables show selected monetary indicators and liquidity and credit aggregates for the periods indicated.
Selected Monetary Indicators
(percentage change based on peso-denominated data)
| | | | | |
M1 (annual % change) (2) | 34.4 | 14.2 | 34.0 | 24.1 | 26.4 |
M2 (annual % change) (3) | 29.4 | 13.5 | 27.2 | 22.1 | 21.8 |
Credit from the financial system (annual % change) (4) | (13.3) | (4.7) | 9.8 | 30.1 | 24.2(6) |
Average peso deposit rate(6) | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 4.1(7) |
(1) | Preliminary data. |
(2) | Currency in circulation plus peso-denominated demand deposits. |
(3) | M1 plus peso-denominated savings deposits. |
(4) | Peso-denominated bank credit to the non-financial sector. |
(5) | As of September 30, 2007. |
(6) | As of August 31, 2007. |
(7) | For October, 2007. |
Source: Banco Central
Liquidity and Credit Aggregates (in millions of US$) |
| | |
| | | | | |
Liquidity aggregates (at period end): | | | | | |
Currency, excluding cash in vaults at banks | US$ 322 | US$ 410 | US$ 552 | US$ 661 | US$ 647 |
M1(2) | 802 | 1,019 | 1,493 | 1,829 | 2,033 |
M2(3) | 1,043 | 1,317 | 1,831 | 2,209 | 2,503 |
| | | | | |
Credit aggregates (at period end) (4): | | | | | |
Resident private sector credit | 3,930 | 3,598 | 3,717 | 4,165 | 4,750 |
Public sector credit | 455 | 424 | 396 | 329 | 244 |
Total sector credit | US$ 4,385 | US$ 4,022 | US$ 4,113 | US$ 4,494 | US$ 4,994 |
| | | | | |
Deposits (5) : | | | | | |
Uruguayan pesos deposits | US$ 756 | US$ 941 | US$ 1,304 | US$ 1,609 | US$ 2,163 |
Foreign-currency deposits | 7,071 | 7,465 | 7,650 | 8,142 | 8,535 |
Total deposits | 7,827 | 8,406 | 8,954 | 9,751 | 10,698 |
Deposits of non-residents | US$ 1,382 | US$ 1,527 | US$ 1,553 | US$ 1,607 | US$ 1,664 |
(1) | Preliminary data. |
(2) | Currency in circulation plus peso-denominated demand deposits. |
(3) | M1 plus peso-denominated savings deposits. |
(4) | Total gross bank credit to the non-financial sector. |
(5) | Total deposits of the non-financial sector in the banking system. |
(6) | For “Deposits”, as of October 31, 2007. |
Source: Banco Central
Inflation
The Consumer Price Index showed an increase of 8.4% in the first ten months of 2007, accumulating an 8.9% rise in the 12 months ended October 31, 2007, exceeding the upper limit of Banco Central’s target range of 6.5%. The Wholesale Price Index showed an increase of 16.65% in the first eleven months of 2007, accumulating a 17.5% rise in the 12 months ended November 30, 2007.
On March 29, 2007, the Monetary Policy Committee of Banco Central announced the adoption of measures intended to restrict the expansion of the monetary base. On September 4, 2007, Banco Central announced that it would complete the transition from using monetary aggregates to using interest rates as the primary instrument of monetary policy. The target interbank rate, which had been set at 5% on September 4, 2007, was raised on October 3, 2007 to 7%, with deposit and lending facilities from the Banco Central defining a range with lower and upper limits of 6% and 8%, respectively. On November 6, 2007 the Monetary Policy Committee of Banco Central once again raised the target interbank rate to 7.25%, with a range with lower and upper limits of 6.25% and 8.25%, respectively. On November 6, 2007 Banco Central also reaffirmed its commitment to an annual inflation target between 4.0% and 6.0% over an 18-month period.
In September 2007 the Government announced a series of measures intended to curb inflationary pressures, including a reduction of public utility rates (a 6.5% average reduction in the fixed charges of basic telephony and a 4.7% average reduction in electricity prices), a reduction of fuel prices (2%, based on a reduction in taxes), a 2.5% reduction in health care, the removal of a tax on foreign exchange purchases paid by government-owned companies, and the exoneration of VAT on poultry through December 31, 2007. Although the Government expects these anti-inflationary measures to have a negative impact on the contribution made by government-owned companies to public sector accounts, increases in tax collections attributable to continued economic growth are expected to offset the decrease in contributions by public sector companies to the treasury.
The following table shows changes in the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index for the periods indicated.
Inflation |
| Percent Change from Previous Year at Period End |
| | |
2002 | 25.9 | 64.6 |
2003 | 10.2 | 20.5 |
2004 | 7.6 | 5.1 |
2005 | 4.9 | (2.2) |
2006 | 6.4 | 8.2 |
Twelve months ended October 31, 2007(1) | 8.9 | 17.5 |
(1) For Wholesale Prices, twelve months ended November 30, 2007.
Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE)
Foreign Exchange and International Reserves
Foreign Exchange
The following table shows the high, low, average and period end peso/U.S. dollar exchange rates for the dates and periods indicated.
Exchange Rates(1) (pesos per US$) |
| | | | |
2003 | 29.55 | 26.15 | 28.17 | 29.30 |
2004 | 29.80 | 26.00 | 28.64 | 26.35 |
2005 | 26.25 | 23.15 | 24.41 | 24.10 |
2006 | 24.40 | 23.70 | 24.01 | 24.40 |
Nov. 1, 2006 – Oct.31, 2007 | 24.45 | 21.85 | 23.81 | 22.00 |
Nov. 14, 2006 – Nov. 15, 2007 | 24.45 | 21.85 | 23.73 | 22.00 |
(1) | Daily interbank end-of-day bid rates. |
Source: Banco Central
International Reserves
The following table shows the composition of the international reserve assets of Uruguay’s banking system at each of the dates indicated.
International Reserve Assets of the Banking System (in millions of US$) |
| | |
| | | | | |
Banco Central | US$2,087(2) | US$ 2,512 | US$ 3,078 | US$ 3,091 | US$ 3,539 |
Commercial Banks | 3,631 | 4,705 | 4,795 | 4,438 | 5,223 |
International reserve assets | US$ 5,718 | US$ 7,217 | US$ 7,873 | US$ 7,529 | US$ 8,762 |
(2) | This amount does not include US$224.1 million held by the FESB at December 31, 2003. |
Source: Banco Central
The Financial Sector
The Banking System in 2007
The non-financial private and public sector’s deposits with the domestic banking sector increased by US$642 million in first nine months of 2007, reaching a total of US$10,393 million as of
September 30, 2007, compared to US$9,545 million as of September 30, 2006. Credit extended to the non-financial sector increased by US$500 million in the same period, to a total of US$4,994 million at September 30, 2007, compared to US$ 4,387 million as of September 30, 2006. Solvency ratios of the banking system on average remained stable above the 8.0% total capital to risk-weighted asset ratio required by Banco Central. At June 30, 2007, the regulatory capital of private banks was 2.3 times above the minimum regulatory requirement, compared to 2.1 times at year-end 2006. The share of non-performing loans on total loans (based payment behavior of clients) decreased from 3.6% in December 31, 2006 to 3.2% in June 30, 2007.
PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES
In the first seven months of 2007, the consolidated public sector registered a surplus of US$128 million, compared to a deficit of US$42 million for the same period in 2006. This improvement is mainly attributable to the improved results of public sector companies. The Government expects the increase in the contributions to the treasury made by public sector companies to be partially offset by the measures adopted in September 2007 to reduce inflation.
On May 14, 2007 the Executive Power sent to the Congress the annual report on the execution of the National Budget, including certain revisions for the period 2007-2009. The budget amendments for the period 2007-2009 assume a primary surplus of 3.8% of GDP for the overall public sector in each of 2007 and 2008 and of 3.6% in 2009.
The tax reform approved by the Congress and promulgated by the Executive Power in December 2006, became effective in July 2007. The new tax system introduced a personal income tax on income from Uruguayan sources, with rates ranging from 3% to 25%. It also reduced VAT rates and eliminated or reduced a number of other indirect taxes, while at the same time broadening the tax base. Corporate tax rates were reduced from 30% to 25% .
PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
As of June 30, 2007, Uruguay’s gross public sector debt totaled US$15,605 million. The increase in gross public sector debt is attributable to the Government’s decision to take advantage of favorable market conditions to increase the international reserve assets of Banco Central, as evidenced by the following table:
Total Public Debt, Net of International Reserve Assets (in millions of US$) |
| As of December 31, | As of June 29, |
| | | | | |
Total Gross Debt | US$12,163 | US$13,322 | US$13,949 | US$13,717 | US$15,605 |
Less International Reserve Assets | 3,920 | 4,208 | 5,012 | 4,559 | 6,425 |
Total Net Public Debt | US$ 8,243 | US$ 9,114 | US$ 8,938 | US$ 9,157 | US$ 9,180 |
Source: Banco Central
The following table sets forth information regarding gross public domestic debt by debtor.
Gross Public Debt, By Debtor (in millions of US$) |
| As of December 31, | As of June 29, |
| | | | | |
Central Government | US$10,160 | US$10,739 | US$11,318 | US$11,299 | US$12,597 |
Public Enterprises | 445 | 399 | 379 | 518 | 662 |
Local Governments | 214 | 222 | 198 | 137 | 80 |
Others | (2) | (3) | (17) | (13) | (7) |
Total Non Financial Sector Debt | US$10,817 | US$11,357 | US$11,878 | US$11,941 | US$13,332 |
Central Bank | 1,346 | 1,965 | 2,071 | 1,776 | 2,273 |
Total Debt | US$12,163 | US$13,322 | US$13,949 | US$13,717 | US$15,605 |
Source: Banco Central
Uruguay’s public debt is held by a variety of multilateral, bilateral and private creditors. The following table sets forth information regarding gross public domestic debt by creditor.
Gross Public Debt, By Creditor (in millions of US$) |
| As of December 31, | As of June 29, |
| | | | | |
Multilateral organizations | US$ 5,419 | US$ 5,715 | US$ 5,396 | US$ 2,519 | US$ 2,549 |
Bilateral creditors | 204 | 162 | 127 | 163 | 163 |
Commercial banks | 657 | 790 | 618 | 838 | 886 |
Other financial institutions | 5,096 | 5,870 | 6,773 | 9,081 | 10,622 |
Suppliers | 153 | 162 | 224 | 304 | 502 |
Non financial private sector | 634 | 600 | 790 | 793 | 866 |
Others | 0 | 25 | 21 | 18 | 16 |
Total Debt | US$12,163 | US$13,322 | US$13,949 | US$13,717 | US$15,605 |
Source: Banco Central
The following table sets forth information regarding gross public domestic debt by instrument.
| Gross Public Debt, By Instrument (in millions of US$) | |
| | As of December 31, | As of June 29, | |
| | | | | | | |
| Treasury Bills and Bonds | US$6,204 | US$6,922 | US$8,229 | US$10,817 | US$12,560 | |
| Brady Bonds | 156 | 144 | 27 | 3 | 0 | |
| International lendings | 5,682 | 5,925 | 5,542 | 2,698 | 2,728 | |
| Suppliers | 153 | 162 | 224 | 304 | 502 | |
| Net Deposits | -96 | 144 | -94 | -123 | -201 | |
| Others | | | | | | |
| Total Debt | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
Source: Banco Central
During the first nine months of 2007, Uruguay issued the following series of debt securities in the international capital markets:
| Principal Amount (in millions) |
2.23% Japanese Yen Bonds due 2017 | ¥30,000(1) |
4.25% UI Bonds due 2027 | Ps.12,135(2) |
3.70% UI Bonds due 2037 | Ps.11,934(3) |
| (1) | Approximately US$256 million. |
| (2) | Approximately US$500 million. |
| (3) | Approximately US$500 million. |
Source: Banco Central