relationship between the UK and EU, which will continue to be developed and defined, and could negatively affect taxes and costs of business; cause volatility in currency exchange rates, interest rates, and EU, UK or worldwide political, regulatory, economic or market conditions; and contribute to instability in political institutions, regulatory agencies, and financial markets, which may in turn have a material adverse effect on Uruguay’s business, financial condition and results of operations. Global issues, such as the effects of Brexit, could lead to additional political, legal and economic instability in the EU and produce a negative impact on the commercial exchange of Uruguay with that region.
Uruguay’s economy may be affected by “contagion” effects, as international investors’ reactions to events occurring in one developing country sometimes appear to follow a cascading pattern, in which an entire region or investment class is disfavored by international investors.
Domestic factors could lead to a reduced growth and decrease of foreign investment in Uruguay.
Adverse domestic factors, such as domestic inflation, high domestic interest rates, exchange rate volatility and political uncertainty could lead to lower growth in Uruguay, declines in foreign direct and portfolio investment and potentially lower international reserves. In addition, any of these factors may adversely affect the liquidity of, and trading markets for, Uruguay’s bonds.
There can be no assurances that Uruguay’s credit ratings will improve or remain stable, or that they will not be downgraded, suspended or cancelled by the rating agencies.
Uruguay’s long-term foreign-currency debt is currently rated investment grade by the three leading rating agencies. Fitch has a negative outlook since October 2018, while Moody’s and S&P have a stable outlook.
Ratings address the creditworthiness of Uruguay and the likelihood of timely payment of Uruguay’s long-term bonds. Uruguay’s credit ratings may not improve and they may adversely affect the trading price of Uruguay’s debt securities (including the Bonds), which could potentially affect Uruguay’s cost of funds in the international capital markets and the liquidity of and demand for Uruguay’s debt securities.
The continuation of the pandemic caused by the coronavirus could prolong the adverse effect it has on our economy.
In December 2019, a novel form of pneumonia first noticed in Wuhan, Hubei province (COVID-19, caused by a novel coronavirus) was reported to the World Health Organization, with cases soon confirmed in multiple provinces in China. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization characterized the COVID-19 as a pandemic. Governments have undertaken several measures across the world to control the coronavirus, including mandatory quarantines and travel restrictions.
The measures initially adopted in Uruguay to contain the spread of the virus and protect public health, together with lower external demand and tighter international financial conditions, resulted in a slowdown in economic activity (real GDP contracted by 5.9% in 2020). Commencing November 2020, the spread of the virus in Uruguay accelerated considerably, leading the government to introduce new measures to contain it. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the government has deployed various initiatives to address public health as well as various aspects of the economy specifically affected by the pandemic. See “Covid 19 Pandemic—República Oriental del Uruguay” in the Amendment No. 3 to the Annual Report.
Restrictive measures put in place to control the outbreak of contagious disease in Uruguay have had, as in many other countries, unintended adverse effects on Uruguay’s economy—to a degree and for a duration that we cannot quantify as of the date of this prospectus supplement.
In the medium to long term, the spread of COVID-19, if prolonged, could have further adverse effects on Uruguay’s economy.
The government expects that the increases in public expenditures in 2021 due to COVID-19 will mostly come from discretionary measures aimed at providing income support and tax relief to vulnerable households and firms, as well as social security spending tied to unemployment and health insurance benefits. These COVID-19 related expenses will be earmarked for fiscal transparency and accountability.
As of the date of Amendment No.3 to the Annual Report, around 1.2 million people had been vaccinated with the first dose, which represents 41.1% of the population older than 18, and around 0.7 million people had been vaccinated with both doses, which represents 23.6% of the population older than 18. However, there can be no assurance regarding the pace of the vaccination process or the magnitude of any expected positive effects on the Uruguayan economy resulting from the immunization campaign.
For further information see “Recent Developments” in the Annual Report, as most recently amended.
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