Risk Factors and Investment Considerations Relating to Uruguay
Uruguay remains vulnerable to regional and global shocks, which could arise from significant economic difficulties in its major trading partners (particularly Argentina, Brazil and China) or by more general “contagion” effects, including those precipitated by geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or the Israel-Hamas conflict. Such trade and financial external shocks and “contagion” effects could have a material adverse effect on Uruguay’s economic growth and funding conditions faced by the government in international capital markets.
Weak, flat or negative economic growth of any of Uruguay’s major trading partners, such as Brazil, Argentina and China has in the past, and could in the future, materially affect Uruguay’s exports to those markets and, in turn, adversely affect economic growth.
Uruguay’s economy may also be affected by conditions (including trade and Central Bank policies) in developed economies, which are significant trading partners of Uruguay or have influence over world economic cycles. For example, if interest rates increase significantly in developed economies, including the United States and Europe, Uruguay and its developing economy trading partners, such as Brazil and Argentina, could find it more difficult and expensive to borrow capital and refinance existing debt, which could adversely affect economic growth in those countries. Additionally, decreased growth on the part of Uruguay’s trading partners could have a material adverse effect on the markets for Uruguay’s exports and, in turn, adversely affect economic growth.
Furthermore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has contributed to the upward pressure on global prices for certain commodities, including oil of which Uruguay is a net importer, and affected conditions in the international capital markets. While the full extent of the impact of the conflict remains to be seen as of the date of this prospectus supplement, the effects of the conflict could materially affect the performance of the Uruguayan economy, and, as a result, negatively affect Uruguay’s ability to raise funding in the external debt markets in the future and its ability to perform its obligations under the Bonds.
Uruguay’s economy may be affected by “contagion” effects, as international investors’ reactions to events occurring in one developing country sometimes appear to follow a cascading pattern, in which an entire region or investment class is disfavored by international investors.
Domestic factors could lead to a reduced growth and decrease of foreign investment in Uruguay.
Adverse domestic factors, such as domestic inflation, high domestic interest rates, exchange rate volatility and political uncertainty could lead to lower growth in Uruguay, declines in foreign direct and portfolio investment and potentially lower international reserves. In addition, any of these factors may adversely affect the liquidity of, and trading markets for, Uruguay’s bonds.
There can be no assurances that Uruguay’s credit ratings will improve or remain stable, or that they will not be downgraded, suspended or cancelled by the rating agencies.
Uruguay’s long-term foreign-currency debt is currently rated investment grade with a stable outlook by the three leading rating agencies, and it was recently upgraded by one of them.
Ratings address the creditworthiness of Uruguay and the likelihood of timely payment of Uruguay’s long-term bonds. Uruguay’s credit ratings may not improve and they may adversely affect the trading price of Uruguay’s debt securities (including the Bonds), which could potentially affect Uruguay’s cost of funds in the international capital markets and the liquidity of and demand for Uruguay’s debt securities.
The outbreak of pandemics, such as the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, could have an adverse effect on the Uruguayan economy.
The long-term effects on the global economy and the Uruguayan economy of pandemics and other public health crises, such as COVID-19, are difficult to assess or predict, and may include risks to citizens’ health and safety, as well as reduced economic activity. COVID-19 has had and may continue to have a significant adverse effect on the world economy, which could, in turn, negatively affect Uruguay’s economy.
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