On August 31, 2020, the Government announced that the Manila metropolitan area would continue to be under general community quarantine (“GCQ”) until September 30, 2020 and on October 26, 2020, the Government announced that the Manila metropolitan area, Batangas, Iloilo Province, Bacolod City, Tacloban City, Iligan City and Lanao del Sur would continue to be under GCQ until November 30, 2020.
On September 28, 2020, the Bangko Sentral issued Memorandum No. 2020-074, which details for Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas-supervised financial institutions the rules for implementing the mandatory one-time 60-day grace period for all loans that are existing, current, and outstanding falling due on or before December 31, 2020, as provided for under the “Bayanihan to Recover as One Act”. It states that Bangko Sentral-supervised financial institutions are prohibited from requiring their clients to waive the application of the mandatory one-time 60-day grace period. It also details the effect of the grace period on loan accounts covered by post-dated checks, auto debit, or auto deduct arrangements; the required treatment of principal and accrued interest; and the rule against the non-imposition of interest on interests, penalties, fees, and other charges.
On October 28, 2020, further guidelines on the implementation of the COVID-19 Adjustment Measures Program (“CAMP”) were released by the Department of Labor and Employment. The CAMP is a safety net program under the “Bayanihan to Recover as One Act” that offers financial support to affected workers in private establishments that have adopted flexible work arrangements or temporary closure during the COVID-19 pandemic. Under CAMP, affected workers will be given a one-time unconditional financial support of ₱5,000 regardless of their employment status and affected workers will be provided access to available job opportunities suitable to their qualifications through job matching, referral and placement services.
On November 10, 2020, the Financial Institutions Strategic Transfer Act (“FIST Act”) was approved by the Senate. It will next be taken up in the bicameral conference committee consisting members from both houses of Congress, for the committee to come up with a final version to be ratified by both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The FIST bill is certified as urgent by the President. The FIST Act would allow all financial institutions, including banks, to sell their non-performing assets and bad loans to asset management companies, referred to as FIST corporations. The FIST Act is intended to free up the banking industry’s capital, strengthen its risk-bearing capacity, and support investment and lending activities, and to ensure resources of financial institutions are not spent on management their non-performing assets; it is also intended to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the Philippine economy by freeing up banks from loans.
On November 10, 2020, the National Economic Development Authority reported that the Philippine economy had contracted 11.5% in the third quarter of 2020. In October 2020, the IMF world economic outlook projected that the Republic’s GDP would contract by 8.3% in 2020, which is a higher contraction than the previously estimated 3.6% contraction, as lower remittance flows weigh down domestic spending.
Recent Economic Indicators
The following table sets out the performance of certain of the Republic’s principal economic indicators for the specified periods.
Years 2015 – 2020
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 2015 | | | 2016 | | | 2017 | | | 2018 | | | 2019 | | | 2020(1) | |
GDP growth (%)(2) | | | 6.1 | | | | 6.9 | | | | 6.7 | | | | 6.2 | | | | 5.9 | | | | (10.0 | ) |
GNI growth (%) (at constant prices)(2) | | | 5.8 | | | | 6.7 | | | | 6.5 | | | | 5.9 | | | | 5.5 | | | | (10.8 | ) |
Inflation rate (2012 CPI basket)(%) | | | 0.7 | | | | 1.3 | | | | 2.9 | | | | 5.2 | | | | 2.5 | | | | 2.5 | |
Unemployment rate | | | 6.3 | | | | 5.5 | | | | 5.7 | | | | 5.3 | | | | 5.4 | | | | 10.0 | (3) |
91-day T-bill rate (%) | | | 1.8 | | | | 1.5 | | | | 2.1 | | | | 3.5 | | | | 4.7 | | | | 2.2 | (4) |
External position | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Balance of payments ($ million) | | | 2,616 | | | | (1,038 | ) | | | (863 | ) | | | (2,306 | ) | | | 7,843 | | | | 4,109 | (5) |
Export growth (%) | | | (5.3 | ) | | | (2.4 | ) | | | 19.7 | | | | 0.9 | | | | 4.9 | | | | (16.7 | )(5) |
Import growth (%) | | | 8.7 | | | | 18.3 | | | | 14.2 | | | | 17.4 | | | | 0.6 | | | | (26.3 | )(5) |
External debt ($ billion) | | | 77.5 | | | | 74.8 | | | | 73.1 | | | | 79.0 | | | | 83.6 | | | | 87.5 | (5) |
International reserves | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross ($ billion) | | | 80.7 | | | | 80.7 | | | | 81.6 | | | | 79.2 | | | | 87.8 | | | | 103.8 | (6) |
Net ($ billion) | | | 80.7 | | | | 81.0 | | | | 81.6 | | | | 79.2 | | | | 87.8 | | | | 103.8 | (6) |
Months of retained imports(7) | | | 9.9 | | | | 8.8 | | | | 7.8 | | | | 6.9 | | | | 7.6 | | | | 10.3 | (6) |
Domestic credit growth (%) | | | 11.5 | | | | 17.0 | | | | 13.9 | | | | 14.9 | | | | 8.7 | (8) | | | 10.7 | (9) |
Sources: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral.
Notes:
(1) | Preliminary data as of September 30, 2020 or for the nine months ended September 30, 2020, unless otherwise indicated. |
(2) | In April 2020, the PSNA further revised the PSNA standards, changing the constant base year for GDP and GNI calculations from 2000 to 2018. Therefore, GDP and GNI figures are calculated at constant 2000 market prices, except for 2020 figures, which are calculated at constant 2018 market prices. |
(3) | Based on preliminary estimates for July 2020. |
(4) | Based on data as of October 31, 2020. |
(5) | Preliminary data as of June 30, 2020 and for the six months ended June 30, 2020. |
(6) | Preliminary figure as of October 31, 2020. |
(7) | Number of months of average imports of goods and payments of services and primary income that can be financed by reserves. |
(8) | Figure represents the average of the growth rates for each quarter in 2019. |
(9) | Preliminary figure representing the average growth rate for the first three quarters of 2020. |
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