Fair Value Measurements | Fair Value Measurements Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows: Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities, highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities. Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include separate account assets, corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, asset-backed securities (“ABS”), mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), non-affiliated common stocks, equity index call options and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2. Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available at the valuation date. AFG’s Level 3 is comprised of financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information. As discussed in Note A — “ Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities ,” AFG has set the carrying value of its CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. As a result, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments. AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 25 analysts whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, the Company communicates directly with the pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities. Assets and liabilities measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total June 30, 2018 Assets: Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities: U.S. Government and government agencies $ 140 $ 92 $ 8 $ 240 States, municipalities and political subdivisions — 6,852 61 6,913 Foreign government — 129 — 129 Residential MBS — 2,739 147 2,886 Commercial MBS — 878 56 934 Asset-backed securities — 7,931 1,004 8,935 Corporate and other 29 18,174 1,408 19,611 Total AFS fixed maturities 169 36,795 2,684 39,648 Trading fixed maturities 38 99 — 137 Equity securities 1,471 76 230 1,777 Equity index call options — 615 — 615 Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”) 229 4,780 23 5,032 Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*) — 636 — 636 Total assets accounted for at fair value $ 1,907 $ 43,001 $ 2,937 $ 47,845 Liabilities: Liabilities of managed investment entities $ 220 $ 4,598 $ 22 $ 4,840 Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated — — 2,776 2,776 Other liabilities — derivatives — 72 — 72 Total liabilities accounted for at fair value $ 220 $ 4,670 $ 2,798 $ 7,688 December 31, 2017 Assets: Available for sale fixed maturities: U.S. Government and government agencies $ 122 $ 112 $ 8 $ 242 States, municipalities and political subdivisions — 6,975 148 7,123 Foreign government — 127 — 127 Residential MBS — 3,105 122 3,227 Commercial MBS — 926 36 962 Asset-backed securities — 7,218 744 7,962 Corporate and other 30 17,662 1,044 18,736 Total AFS fixed maturities 152 36,125 2,102 38,379 Trading fixed maturities 44 304 — 348 Equity securities 1,411 86 165 1,662 Equity index call options — 701 — 701 Assets of managed investment entities 307 4,572 23 4,902 Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*) — 644 — 644 Total assets accounted for at fair value $ 1,914 $ 42,432 $ 2,290 $ 46,636 Liabilities: Liabilities of managed investment entities $ 293 $ 4,372 $ 22 $ 4,687 Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated — — 2,542 2,542 Other liabilities — derivatives — 35 — 35 Total liabilities accounted for at fair value $ 293 $ 4,407 $ 2,564 $ 7,264 (*) Variable annuity liabilities equal the fair value of variable annuity assets. Transfers between Level 1 and Level 2 for all periods presented were a result of increases or decreases in observable trade activity. During the second quarter and first six months of 2018 , there were two preferred stocks with an aggregate fair value of $6 million that transferred from Level 1 to Level 2. During the second quarter and first six months of 2017 , there were two preferred stocks with an aggregate fair value of $16 million that transferred from Level 2 to Level 1. Approximately 6% of the total assets carried at fair value at June 30, 2018 , were Level 3 assets. Approximately 73% ( $2.14 billion ) of the Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG. Since internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent approximately 14% of AFG’s Shareholders’ Equity, any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine internally developed fair values would not have a material impact on AFG’s financial position. The only significant Level 3 assets or liabilities carried at fair value in the financial statements that were not measured using broker quotes are the derivatives embedded in AFG’s fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity liabilities, which are measured using a discounted cash flow approach and had a fair value of $2.78 billion at June 30, 2018 . The following table presents information about the unobservable inputs used by management in determining fair value of these embedded derivatives. See Note E — “ Derivatives .” Unobservable Input Range Adjustment for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk 0.4% – 1.7% over the risk free rate Risk margin for uncertainty in cash flows 0.70% reduction in the discount rate Surrenders 3% – 23% of indexed account value Partial surrenders 2% – 9% of indexed account value Annuitizations 0.1% – 1% of indexed account value Deaths 1.6% – 8.0% of indexed account value Budgeted option costs 2.5% – 3.5% of indexed account value The range of adjustments for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk reflects credit spread variations across the yield curve. The range of projected surrender rates reflects the specific surrender charges and other features of AFG’s individual fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity products with an expected range of 7% to 11% in the majority of future calendar years ( 3% to 23% over all periods). Increasing the budgeted option cost or risk margin for uncertainty in cash flow assumptions in the table above would increase the fair value of the fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity embedded derivatives, while increasing any of the other unobservable inputs in the table above would decrease the fair value of the embedded derivatives. Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the second quarter and first six months of 2018 and 2017 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs and $29 million of equity securities transferred into Level 3 in the first quarter of 2018 related to a small number of limited partnerships and similar investments carried at cost under the prior guidance that are carried at fair value through net earnings under new guidance adopted on January 1, 2018, as discussed in Note A — “ Accounting Policies — Investments .” All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period. Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in Balance at March 31, 2018 Net Other comprehensive income (loss) Purchases and issuances Sales and settlements Transfer into Level 3 Transfer out of Level 3 Balance at June 30, 2018 AFS fixed maturities: U.S. government agency $ 8 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 8 State and municipal 62 — (1 ) — — — — 61 Residential MBS 115 (3 ) — — (5 ) 50 (10 ) 147 Commercial MBS 47 — — 9 — — — 56 Asset-backed securities 912 — (6 ) 136 (20 ) — (18 ) 1,004 Corporate and other 1,238 1 (4 ) 234 (48 ) — (13 ) 1,408 Total AFS fixed maturities 2,382 (2 ) (11 ) 379 (73 ) 50 (41 ) 2,684 Equity securities 194 19 — 16 — 1 — 230 Assets of MIE 24 (3 ) — 2 — — — 23 Total Level 3 assets $ 2,600 $ 14 $ (11 ) $ 397 $ (73 ) $ 51 $ (41 ) $ 2,937 Embedded derivatives (a) $ (2,549 ) $ (126 ) $ — $ (141 ) $ 40 $ — $ — $ (2,776 ) Total Level 3 liabilities (b) $ (2,549 ) $ (126 ) $ — $ (141 ) $ 40 $ — $ — $ (2,776 ) Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in Balance at March 31, 2017 Net Other comprehensive income (loss) Purchases and issuances Sales and settlements Transfer into Level 3 Transfer out of Level 3 Balance at June 30, 2017 AFS fixed maturities: U.S. government agency $ 8 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 8 State and municipal 143 — 1 — (1 ) — — 143 Residential MBS 175 (3 ) 2 — (23 ) 13 (11 ) 153 Commercial MBS 29 1 — 15 — — — 45 Asset-backed securities 594 — 2 — (25 ) 19 (92 ) 498 Corporate and other 828 4 4 168 (27 ) — (24 ) 953 Total AFS fixed maturities 1,777 2 9 183 (76 ) 32 (127 ) 1,800 Equity securities 173 (10 ) 6 8 (3 ) — (6 ) 168 Assets of MIE 26 (5 ) — 2 — — — 23 Total Level 3 assets $ 1,976 $ (13 ) $ 15 $ 193 $ (79 ) $ 32 $ (133 ) $ 1,991 Embedded derivatives $ (1,963 ) $ (112 ) $ — $ (80 ) $ 26 $ — $ — $ (2,129 ) Total Level 3 liabilities (b) $ (1,963 ) $ (112 ) $ — $ (80 ) $ 26 $ — $ — $ (2,129 ) (a) Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in net earnings for the embedded derivatives reflects losses related to the unlocking of actuarial assumptions of $44 million in the second quarter of 2018 . (b) As previously discussed, these tables exclude the portion of MIE liabilities allocated to Level 3, which are derived from the fair value of the MIE assets. Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in Balance at December 31, 2017 Net Other comprehensive income (loss) Purchases and issuances Sales and settlements Transfer into Level 3 Transfer out of Level 3 Balance at June 30, 2018 AFS fixed maturities: U.S. government agency $ 8 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 8 State and municipal 148 — (2 ) — (1 ) — (84 ) 61 Residential MBS 122 (7 ) — — (11 ) 57 (14 ) 147 Commercial MBS 36 (1 ) — 21 — — — 56 Asset-backed securities 744 (2 ) (3 ) 340 (57 ) — (18 ) 1,004 Corporate and other 1,044 2 (18 ) 472 (79 ) — (13 ) 1,408 Total AFS fixed maturities 2,102 (8 ) (23 ) 833 (148 ) 57 (129 ) 2,684 Equity securities 165 14 — 25 (4 ) 30 — 230 Assets of MIE 23 (5 ) — 5 — — — 23 Total Level 3 assets $ 2,290 $ 1 $ (23 ) $ 863 $ (152 ) $ 87 $ (129 ) $ 2,937 Embedded derivatives (a) $ (2,542 ) $ (63 ) $ — $ (244 ) $ 73 $ — $ — $ (2,776 ) Total Level 3 liabilities (b) $ (2,542 ) $ (63 ) $ — $ (244 ) $ 73 $ — $ — $ (2,776 ) Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in Balance at December 31, 2016 Net Other comprehensive income (loss) Purchases and issuances Sales and settlements Transfer into Level 3 Transfer out of Level 3 Balance at June 30, 2017 AFS fixed maturities: U.S. government agency $ 8 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 8 State and municipal 140 — 4 — (1 ) — — 143 Residential MBS 190 (2 ) 2 1 (31 ) 20 (27 ) 153 Commercial MBS 25 1 — 15 — 4 — 45 Asset-backed securities 484 — 2 104 (36 ) 36 (92 ) 498 Corporate and other 712 5 8 288 (65 ) 29 (24 ) 953 Total AFS fixed maturities 1,559 4 16 408 (133 ) 89 (143 ) 1,800 Equity securities 174 (16 ) 13 20 (3 ) — (20 ) 168 Assets of MIE 29 (6 ) — 4 — — (4 ) 23 Total Level 3 assets $ 1,762 $ (18 ) $ 29 $ 432 $ (136 ) $ 89 $ (167 ) $ 1,991 Embedded derivatives $ (1,759 ) $ (259 ) $ — $ (159 ) $ 48 $ — $ — $ (2,129 ) Total Level 3 liabilities (b) $ (1,759 ) $ (259 ) $ — $ (159 ) $ 48 $ — $ — $ (2,129 ) (a) Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in net earnings for the embedded derivatives reflects losses related to the unlocking of actuarial assumptions of $44 million in the first six months of 2018 . (b) As previously discussed, these tables exclude the portion of MIE liabilities allocated to Level 3, which are derived from the fair value of the MIE assets. Fair Value of Financial Instruments The carrying value and fair value of financial instruments that are not carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): Carrying Fair Value Value Total Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 June 30, 2018 Financial assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 1,810 $ 1,810 $ 1,810 $ — $ — Mortgage loans 1,147 1,136 — — 1,136 Policy loans 179 179 — — 179 Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value $ 3,136 $ 3,125 $ 1,810 $ — $ 1,315 Financial liabilities: Annuity benefits accumulated (*) $ 34,673 $ 33,204 $ — $ — $ 33,204 Long-term debt 1,301 1,265 — 1,262 3 Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value $ 35,974 $ 34,469 $ — $ 1,262 $ 33,207 December 31, 2017 Financial assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 2,338 $ 2,338 $ 2,338 $ — $ — Mortgage loans 1,125 1,119 — — 1,119 Policy loans 184 184 — — 184 Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value $ 3,647 $ 3,641 $ 2,338 $ — $ 1,303 Financial liabilities: Annuity benefits accumulated (*) $ 33,110 $ 32,461 $ — $ — $ 32,461 Long-term debt 1,301 1,354 — 1,351 3 Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value $ 34,411 $ 33,815 $ — $ 1,351 $ 32,464 (*) Excludes $213 million and $206 million of life contingent annuities in the payout phase at June 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 , respectively. The carrying amount of cash and cash equivalents approximates fair value. Fair values for mortgage loans are estimated by discounting the future contractual cash flows using the current rates at which similar loans would be made to borrowers with similar credit ratings. The fair value of policy loans is estimated to approximate carrying value; policy loans have no defined maturity dates and are inseparable from insurance contracts. The fair value of annuity benefits was estimated based on expected cash flows discounted using forward interest rates adjusted for the Company’s credit risk and includes the impact of maintenance expenses and capital costs. Fair values of long-term debt are based primarily on quoted market prices. |