Fair Value Measurements | Fair Value Measurements Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows: Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities, highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities. Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include separate account assets, corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, asset-backed securities (“ABS”), mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), certain non-affiliated common stocks, equity index options and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2. Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available at the valuation date. Financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information are classified as Level 3. As discussed in Note A — “ Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities ,” AFG has set the carrying value of its CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. As a result, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments. AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 20 analysts whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, the Company communicates directly with the pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities. Assets and liabilities measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Total March 31, 2020 Assets: Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities: U.S. Government and government agencies $ 158 $ 32 $ 15 $ 205 States, municipalities and political subdivisions — 6,801 105 6,906 Foreign government — 170 — 170 Residential MBS — 2,968 163 3,131 Commercial MBS — 875 32 907 Collateralized loan obligations — 3,970 168 4,138 Other asset-backed securities — 5,728 1,030 6,758 Corporate and other 25 22,346 1,548 23,919 Total AFS fixed maturities 183 42,890 3,061 46,134 Trading fixed maturities 1 95 — 96 Equity securities 1,056 67 436 1,559 Equity index call options — 209 — 209 Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”) 169 3,841 16 4,026 Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*) — 497 — 497 Other assets — derivatives — 125 — 125 Total assets accounted for at fair value $ 1,409 $ 47,724 $ 3,513 $ 52,646 Liabilities: Liabilities of managed investment entities $ 162 $ 3,688 $ 15 $ 3,865 Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated — — 3,099 3,099 Other liabilities — derivatives — 10 — 10 Total liabilities accounted for at fair value $ 162 $ 3,698 $ 3,114 $ 6,974 December 31, 2019 Assets: Available for sale fixed maturities: U.S. Government and government agencies $ 151 $ 43 $ 15 $ 209 States, municipalities and political subdivisions — 6,858 105 6,963 Foreign government — 172 — 172 Residential MBS — 2,987 173 3,160 Commercial MBS — 892 35 927 Collateralized loan obligations — 4,265 15 4,280 Other asset-backed securities — 5,842 1,286 7,128 Corporate and other 29 21,879 1,758 23,666 Total AFS fixed maturities 180 42,938 3,387 46,505 Trading fixed maturities 2 111 — 113 Equity securities 1,433 67 437 1,937 Equity index call options — 924 — 924 Assets of managed investment entities 213 4,506 17 4,736 Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*) — 628 — 628 Other assets — derivatives — 50 — 50 Total assets accounted for at fair value $ 1,828 $ 49,224 $ 3,841 $ 54,893 Liabilities: Liabilities of managed investment entities $ 206 $ 4,349 $ 16 $ 4,571 Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated — — 3,730 3,730 Other liabilities — derivatives — 10 — 10 Total liabilities accounted for at fair value $ 206 $ 4,359 $ 3,746 $ 8,311 (*) Variable annuity liabilities equal the fair value of variable annuity assets. Approximately 7% of the total assets carried at fair value at March 31, 2020 , were Level 3 assets. Approximately 43% ( $1.52 billion ) of the Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG. Internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent approximately $1.63 billion at March 31, 2020 . Of this amount, approximately $727 million relates to fixed maturity securities that were priced using management’s best estimate of an appropriate credit spread over the treasury yield (of a similar duration) to discount future expected cash flows using a third-party model. The credit spread applied by management is the significant unobservable input. For this group of 37 securities, the average spread used was 414 basis points over the reference treasury yield and the spreads ranged from 53 basis points to 1,253 basis points (approximately 70% of the spreads were between 200 and 700 basis points). Had management used higher spreads, the fair value of this group of securities would have been lower. Conversely, if the spreads used were lower, the fair values would have been higher. For the remainder of the internally developed prices, any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine fair value would not have resulted in a material change in AFG’s financial position. The derivatives embedded in AFG’s fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity liabilities are measured using a discounted cash flow approach and had a fair value of $3.10 billion at March 31, 2020 . The following table presents information about the unobservable inputs used by management in determining fair value of these Level 3 liabilities. See Note F — “ Derivatives .” Unobservable Input Range Adjustment for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk 1.9% – 3.6% over the risk-free rate Risk margin for uncertainty in cash flows 0.80% reduction in the discount rate Surrenders 4% – 21% of indexed account value Partial surrenders 2% – 9% of indexed account value Annuitizations 0.1% – 1% of indexed account value Deaths 1.9% – 10.6% of indexed account value Budgeted option costs 2.5% – 3.3% of indexed account value The range of adjustments for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk is based on the Moody’s corporate A2 bond index and reflects credit spread variations across the yield curve. The range of projected surrender rates reflects the specific surrender charges and other features of AFG’s individual fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity products with an expected range of 7% to 10% in the majority of future calendar years ( 4% to 21% over all periods). Increasing the budgeted option cost or risk margin for uncertainty in cash flow assumptions in the table above would increase the fair value of the fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity embedded derivatives, while increasing any of the other unobservable inputs in the table above would decrease the fair value of the embedded derivatives. Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the first three months of 2020 and 2019 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs. All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period. Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in Balance at December 31, 2019 Net Other comprehensive income (loss) Purchases and issuances Sales and settlements Transfer into Level 3 Transfer out of Level 3 Balance at March 31, 2020 AFS fixed maturities: U.S. government agency $ 15 $ 1 $ (1 ) $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 15 State and municipal 105 — 1 — (1 ) — — 105 Residential MBS 173 5 (12 ) — (5 ) 2 — 163 Commercial MBS 35 — — — (3 ) — — 32 Collateralized loan obligations 15 (7 ) 2 — — 158 — 168 Other asset-backed securities 1,286 (14 ) (11 ) 77 (178 ) 13 (143 ) 1,030 Corporate and other 1,758 (3 ) (27 ) 119 (36 ) 5 (268 ) 1,548 Total AFS fixed maturities 3,387 (18 ) (48 ) 196 (223 ) 178 (411 ) 3,061 Equity securities 437 (24 ) — 6 — 17 — 436 Assets of MIE 17 (1 ) — — — — — 16 Total Level 3 assets $ 3,841 $ (43 ) $ (48 ) $ 202 $ (223 ) $ 195 $ (411 ) $ 3,513 Embedded derivatives $ (3,730 ) $ 647 $ — $ (78 ) $ 62 $ — $ — $ (3,099 ) Total Level 3 liabilities (*) $ (3,730 ) $ 647 $ — $ (78 ) $ 62 $ — $ — $ (3,099 ) Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in Balance at December 31, 2018 Net Other comprehensive income (loss) Purchases and issuances Sales and settlements Transfer into Level 3 Transfer out of Level 3 Balance at March 31, 2019 AFS fixed maturities: U.S. government agency $ 9 $ — $ — $ — $ (1 ) $ — $ — $ 8 State and municipal 59 — 5 — (1 ) — — 63 Residential MBS 197 5 (5 ) — (6 ) — (22 ) 169 Commercial MBS 56 — — — (1 ) — — 55 Collateralized loan obligations 116 — — — — — — 116 Other asset-backed securities 731 (3 ) 8 75 (114 ) — (143 ) 554 Corporate and other 1,996 2 31 432 (88 ) — (27 ) 2,346 Total AFS fixed maturities 3,164 4 39 507 (211 ) — (192 ) 3,311 Equity securities 336 1 — 1 — 16 — 354 Assets of MIE 21 (1 ) — — — — — 20 Total Level 3 assets $ 3,521 $ 4 $ 39 $ 508 $ (211 ) $ 16 $ (192 ) $ 3,685 Embedded derivatives $ (2,720 ) $ (462 ) $ — $ (112 ) $ 47 $ — $ — $ (3,247 ) Total Level 3 liabilities (*) $ (2,720 ) $ (462 ) $ — $ (112 ) $ 47 $ — $ — $ (3,247 ) (*) As previously discussed, these tables exclude the portion of MIE liabilities allocated to Level 3, which are derived from the fair value of the MIE assets. Fair Value of Financial Instruments The carrying value and fair value of financial instruments that are not carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): Carrying Fair Value Value Total Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 March 31, 2020 Financial assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 1,673 $ 1,673 $ 1,673 $ — $ — Mortgage loans 1,346 1,350 — — 1,350 Policy loans 161 161 — — 161 Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value $ 3,180 $ 3,184 $ 1,673 $ — $ 1,511 Financial liabilities: Annuity benefits accumulated (*) $ 40,218 $ 39,773 $ — $ — $ 39,773 Long-term debt 1,473 1,411 — 1,408 3 Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value $ 41,691 $ 41,184 $ — $ 1,408 $ 39,776 December 31, 2019 Financial assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 2,314 $ 2,314 $ 2,314 $ — $ — Mortgage loans 1,329 1,346 — — 1,346 Policy loans 164 164 — — 164 Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value $ 3,807 $ 3,824 $ 2,314 $ — $ 1,510 Financial liabilities: Annuity benefits accumulated (*) $ 40,159 $ 40,182 $ — $ — $ 40,182 Long-term debt 1,473 1,622 — 1,619 3 Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value $ 41,632 $ 41,804 $ — $ 1,619 $ 40,185 (*) Excludes $245 million and $247 million of life contingent annuities in the payout phase at March 31, 2020 and December 31, 2019 , respectively. |