The impact of fair value accounting for FIAs includes an ongoing expense for annuity interest accreted on the FIA embedded derivative reserve. The amount of interest accreted in any period is generally based on the size of the embedded derivative and current interest rates. We expect both the size of the embedded derivative and interest rates to rise, resulting in continued increases in interest on the embedded derivative liability.
In the second quarter of 2018, the stock market increased nearly 3% and interest rates rose 20 to 25 basis points; these increases exceeded our expectation of a 1% increase and a 5 basis point increase, respectively. The significant favorable impact from these two items more than offset continued higher FIA option costs.
For additional analysis of fair value accounting, see our Quarterly Investor Supplement, which is posted on AFG’s website.
Unlocking– AFG monitors the major actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations throughout the year and conducts detailed reviews (“unlocking”) of its assumptions in the fourth quarter of each year. If changes in the economic environment or actual experience would cause material revisions to future estimates, AFG will unlock assumptions in an interim quarter. Due to continued higher FIA option costs (resulting primarily from higher than expected risk-free interest rates), AFG unlocked its assumptions for option costs and interest rates in the second quarter of 2018, resulting in a net charge to earnings of $27 million, as shown in the table above. AFG will continue its practice of conducting detailed reviews of its assumptions (including option costs and interest rates) in the fourth quarter each year, including 2018.
Craig Lindner commented, “The unlocking charge reflects the higher FIA option costs that we mentioned last quarter. We now believe these higher costs are not temporary and believe it is appropriate to unlock our assumptions in the second quarter. The unlocking charge takes into account the negative impact of higher option costs, partially offset by higher reinvestment rates. In addition, we have started adjusting FIA renewal caps to help mitigate the higher option costs; these actual and expected cap decreases were used in calculating the unlocking charge.”
Annuity Premiums – AFG’s Annuity Segment reported statutory premiums of $1.4 billion in the second quarter of 2018, compared to $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2017. Significantly higher premiums in the Retail and Broker-Dealer channels were partially offset by lower premiums in the Financial Institutions channel.
Craig Lindner stated, “We are pleased with the $1.4 billion of premiums in the second quarter, which represents a quarterly record. We continue to earn our targeted returns despite volatile interest rates. Production in the Retail and Broker-Dealer markets was particularly strong due to the launch of several new products, in addition to an improving interest rate environment in the first half of 2018. Our indirect bank channel premiums have softened due to certain competitors offering significantly higher crediting rates.”
Craig Lindner added, “Based on our salesyear-to-date, we continue to expect that our 2018 full year annuity premiums will be up 10% to 15% over the $4.3 billion reported in 2017, reflecting expected continued year over year improvement in the Retail and Broker-Dealer channels, as well as the launch of new products in 2018.
“In addition, as a result of the stronger than expected earnings in the first half of 2018, we are raising our estimate for 2018 pretax Annuity earnings. We now expect those earnings (including Fair Value accounting and the second quarter unlocking charge) to be in the range of $395 to $430 million, up from our original guidance of $385 to $425 million.
“These estimates assume (i) stock market increases of 1% per quarter, (ii) an increase in interest rates of 5 to 10 basis points between now and year end, (iii) normalized income on the Annuity Segment’s investments, and (iv) FIA option costs remain in line with recent costs. Fluctuations in any of those items, as compared to our expectations, could lead to significant positive or negative impacts on the Annuity Segment’s results.”
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