Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | (16) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses Reconciliations of the changes in unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (“claim liabilities”), excluding liabilities under retroactive reinsurance contracts (see Note 17), for each of the three years ended December 31, 2024 follow (in millions). Net liabilities of acquired businesses in 2022 related to the acquisition of Alleghany’s insurance companies in October 2022. 2024 2023 2022 Balance at the beginning of the year: Gross liabilities $ 111,082 $ 107,472 $ 86,664 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses ( 4,893 ) ( 5,025 ) ( 2,960 ) Net liabilities 106,189 102,447 83,704 Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred: Current accident year 57,563 59,244 59,463 Prior accident years ( 2,322 ) ( 3,541 ) ( 2,672 ) Total 55,241 55,703 56,791 Losses and loss adjustment expenses paid: Current accident year ( 24,139 ) ( 25,184 ) ( 27,236 ) Prior accident years ( 26,436 ) ( 27,065 ) ( 23,083 ) Total ( 50,575 ) ( 52,249 ) ( 50,319 ) Foreign currency effect ( 297 ) 288 ( 508 ) Net liabilities of acquired businesses — — 12,779 Balance at December 31: Net liabilities 110,558 106,189 102,447 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 4,593 4,893 5,025 Gross liabilities $ 115,151 $ 111,082 $ 107,472 Our claim liabilities under property and casualty insurance and reinsurance contracts are based upon estimates of the ultimate claim costs associated with claim events that have occurred as of the balance sheet date and include estimates for incurred-but-not-reported (“IBNR”) claims. Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred shown in the preceding table related to events occurring in the current year (“current accident year”) and events occurring in all prior years (“prior accident years”). Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred and paid are net of reinsurance recoveries. Current accident year incurred losses included losses from significant catastrophe events (losses exceeding $ 150 million per event) of approximately $ 1.5 billion in 2024, $ 925 million in 2023 and $ 3.1 billion in 2022. Current accident year incurred losses for private passenger auto insurance declined in 2024 compared to 2023, reflecting lower claims frequencies and higher average claims severities. Current accident year incurred losses in 2023 also reflected a decline in private passenger auto insurance losses and the impact of the Alleghany acquisition compared to 2022. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (16) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses We recorded net reductions of estimated ultimate liabilities for prior accident years of $ 2.3 billion in 2024, $ 3.5 billion in 2023 and $ 2.7 billion in 2022, which produced corresponding reductions in losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred in those periods. These reductions, as percentages of the net liabilities at the beginning of each year, were 2.2 % in 2024, 3.5 % in 2023 and 3.2 % in 2022. Estimated ultimate liabilities for prior accident years of our primary insurance businesses declined $ 602 million in 2024, $ 2.1 billion in 2023 and $ 1.1 billion in 2022. The decline in estimated liabilities in 2024 reflected lower-than-expected private passenger auto, medical professional liability and property losses, partially offset by increased casualty losses. The estimated liability reductions in 2023 and 2022 were primarily from private passenger auto, medical professional liability and property coverages. Estimated ultimate liabilities for prior accident years of our reinsurance businesses were reduced $ 1.7 billion in 2024, $ 1.4 billion in 2023 and $ 1.6 billion in 2022. The reductions in 2024 and 2023 were primarily attributable to lower-than-expected property losses, while the reductions in 2022 were attributable to both property and casualty losses. Estimated net claim liabilities for environmental and asbestos exposures, excluding liabilities under retroactive reinsurance contracts, were approximately $ 1.9 billion at December 31, 2024 and $ 2.0 billion at December 31, 2023. These liabilities are subject to change due to changes in the legal and regulatory environment, among other factors. We are unable to reliably estimate additional losses or a range of losses that are reasonably possible to arise from these factors. Disaggregated information concerning our claim liabilities is provided below and in the pages that follow for GEICO, Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group (“BH Primary”) and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (“BHRG”). In this discussion, “claim-tail” refers to the period between the claim occurrence date and claim settlement or payment date. A reconciliation of the disaggregated net unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (the latter referred to as “ALAE”) to our consolidated claim liabilities as of December 31, 2024 follows (in millions). GEICO BH Primary BHRG Physical Auto Medical Workers’ Property Casualty Total Unpaid losses and ALAE, net $ 885 $ 20,818 $ 9,432 $ 24,335 $ 15,851 $ 33,350 $ 104,671 Reinsurance recoverable 3 884 29 1,473 634 1,369 4,392 Unallocated loss adjustment 2,414 Other losses and loss adjustment 3,674 Unpaid losses and loss adjustment $ 115,151 GEICO GEICO’s claim liabilities predominantly relate to various types of private passenger auto liability and physical damage claims. For such claims, we establish and evaluate unpaid claim liabilities using standard actuarial loss development methods and techniques. The actuarial methods utilize historical claims data, adjusted when deemed appropriate to reflect perceived changes in loss patterns. Claim liabilities include average, case, case development and IBNR estimates. Average liabilities are based on expected severities for newly reported physical damage and liability claims prior to establishing individual case reserves when insufficient time or information is available for specific claim estimates and for large volumes of minor physical damage claims that are quickly settled. Case loss estimates for liability claims, including estimates for loss adjustment expenses, are based on the facts and merits of the claim. Claim estimates for liability coverages normally reflect greater uncertainty than for physical damage coverages, primarily due to the longer claim-tails, the greater chance of litigation and the time needed to evaluate facts at the time the case estimate is first established. Consequently, additional case development liabilities are established, which are usually percentages of the case liabilities. For unreported claims, IBNR claim liabilities are estimated by projecting the ultimate number of claims expected (reported and unreported) for each significant coverage based on historical data, from which reported claims are deducted to produce the estimated number of unreported claims. The product of the average cost per unreported claim and the number of unreported claims produces the IBNR liability estimate. We may record supplemental IBNR liabilities in certain situations when actuarial techniques are difficult to apply. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (16) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses GEICO’s net auto physical damage and liability losses and ALAE incurred and paid are summarized by accident year below. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2024 and are net of estimated salvage and subrogation recoveries. Claim counts are established when accidents that could result in a liability are reported and are based on policy coverage. Each claim event may generate claims under multiple coverages and may result in multiple counts. The “Cumulative Number of Reported Claims” includes the combined number of reported claims for all auto policy coverages. Dollars are in millions. Physical Damage Losses and ALAE Incurred through December 31, Cumulative Accident 2023* 2024 IBNR and Case Reported 2023 $ 12,273 $ 11,900 $ 111 7,430 2024 11,095 ( 454 ) 6,380 Losses and ALAE incurred $ 22,995 Cumulative Losses and ALAE Paid through December 31, Accident 2023* 2024 2023 $ 11,567 $ 11,771 2024 10,495 Losses and ALAE paid 22,266 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2023 – 2024 accident years 729 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2023 156 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 885 Auto Liability Losses and ALAE Incurred through December 31, Cumulative Accident 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 IBNR and Case Reported 2020 $ 14,637 $ 14,024 $ 13,697 $ 13,593 $ 13,462 $ 382 2,127 2021 17,481 17,457 17,229 17,033 907 2,457 2022 19,645 18,903 18,818 2,065 2,387 2023 17,948 18,073 3,864 1,956 2024 17,081 4,730 1,694 Losses and ALAE incurred $ 84,467 Cumulative Losses and ALAE Paid through December 31, Accident 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2020 $ 5,395 $ 9,839 $ 11,794 $ 12,608 $ 12,946 2021 6,450 12,681 14,863 15,796 2022 7,614 13,838 16,031 2023 7,191 12,682 2024 7,084 Losses and ALAE paid 64,539 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2020 – 2024 accident years 19,928 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2020 890 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 20,818 * Unaudited required supplemental information Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (16) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses BH Primary BH Primary’s liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses primarily derive from medical professional liability and workers’ compensation and other casualty insurance, which includes commercial auto and general liability insurance. Net losses and ALAE incurred and paid are summarized by accident year in the following tables, disaggregated by medical professional liability and workers’ compensation and other casualty coverages. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2024. The cumulative number of reported claims reflects the number of individual claimants and includes claims that ultimately resulted in no liability or payment. Dollars are in millions. Medical Professional Liability Estimates of the ultimate expected losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred for medical professional claim liabilities are based on a variety of commonly accepted actuarial methodologies, such as the paid and incurred development method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson based methods, as well as other techniques that consider insured loss exposures and historical and expected loss trends, among other factors. These methodologies produce loss estimates from which we determine our best estimate. In addition, we study developments in older accident years and adjust initial loss estimates to reflect recent developments based upon claim age, coverage and litigation experience. Losses and ALAE Incurred through December 31, Cumulative Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 IBNR and Case Reported 2015 $ 1,374 $ 1,342 $ 1,269 $ 1,290 $ 1,218 $ 1,157 $ 1,093 $ 1,033 $ 1,016 $ 1,010 $ 37 12 2016 1,392 1,416 1,414 1,394 1,341 1,288 1,216 1,188 1,172 78 15 2017 1,466 1,499 1,495 1,474 1,382 1,349 1,315 1,310 89 21 2018 1,602 1,650 1,659 1,580 1,616 1,606 1,583 140 24 2019 1,670 1,691 1,663 1,614 1,534 1,579 180 22 2020 1,704 1,751 1,698 1,631 1,606 369 33 2021 1,852 1,855 1,787 1,714 718 27 2022 1,927 1,912 1,846 981 25 2023 1,964 1,918 1,428 27 2024 2,004 1,793 22 Losses and ALAE incurred $ 15,742 Cumulative Losses and ALAE Paid through December 31, Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2015 $ 23 $ 108 $ 218 $ 382 $ 543 $ 663 $ 719 $ 799 $ 843 $ 879 2016 22 115 274 461 620 712 822 908 957 2017 27 128 300 457 582 739 877 977 2018 35 166 367 543 728 949 1,080 2019 39 160 314 536 757 963 2020 34 148 321 531 767 2021 36 136 333 548 2022 38 182 441 2023 28 156 2024 34 Losses and ALAE paid 6,802 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2015 – 2024 accident years 8,940 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2015 492 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 9,432 * Unaudited required supplemental information Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (16) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses Workers’ Compensation and Other Casualty We evaluate ultimate loss and loss adjustment expense estimates for workers’ compensation and other casualty claims using a combination of commonly accepted actuarial methodologies such as the Bornhuetter-Ferguson and chain-ladder approaches using paid and incurred loss data. Paid and incurred loss data is segregated and analyzed by state due to the different state regulatory frameworks that may impact the duration and amount of loss payments. We also separately study the various components of liabilities, such as employee lost wages, medical expenses and the costs of claims investigations and administration. We establish case liabilities for reported claims based upon the facts and circumstances of the claim. The excess of the ultimate projected losses, including the case development estimates over the case-basis liabilities, is included in IBNR liabilities. Losses and ALAE Incurred through December 31, Cumulative Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 IBNR and Case Reported 2015 $ 2,580 $ 2,539 $ 2,455 $ 2,426 $ 2,428 $ 2,402 $ 2,408 $ 2,393 $ 2,358 $ 2,367 $ 178 120 2016 2,931 2,848 2,793 2,772 2,815 2,825 2,864 2,840 2,809 277 125 2017 3,473 3,337 3,299 3,310 3,322 3,320 3,321 3,357 395 143 2018 3,998 3,886 3,967 4,030 4,091 4,177 4,230 570 164 2019 4,584 4,623 4,692 4,763 4,847 4,919 691 185 2020 5,030 4,881 4,775 4,774 4,866 1,167 157 2021 5,899 5,856 5,882 5,983 1,923 318 2022 6,796 6,757 6,866 2,801 316 2023 7,299 7,363 3,887 187 2024 7,962 5,552 169 Losses and ALAE incurred $ 50,722 Cumulative Losses and ALAE Paid through December 31, Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2015 $ 329 $ 804 $ 1,187 $ 1,507 $ 1,766 $ 1,873 $ 1,966 $ 2,041 $ 2,070 $ 2,095 2016 373 908 1,359 1,765 1,998 2,140 2,303 2,377 2,420 2017 480 1,133 1,645 2,050 2,279 2,492 2,673 2,784 2018 583 1,340 1,902 2,324 2,746 3,120 3,396 2019 725 1,598 2,214 2,898 3,430 3,812 2020 736 1,498 2,066 2,598 3,138 2021 869 1,751 2,440 3,168 2022 962 2,012 2,905 2023 1,056 2,152 2024 1,245 Losses and ALAE paid 27,115 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2015 – 2024 accident years 23,607 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2015 728 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 24,335 * Unaudited required supplemental information BHRG We use a variety of methodologies to establish BHRG’s estimates for property and casualty claim liabilities. These methodologies include paid and incurred loss development techniques, incurred and paid loss Bornhuetter-Ferguson techniques and frequency and severity techniques, as well as ground-up techniques when appropriate. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (16) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses Our claim liabilities are principally a function of reported losses from ceding companies, case development and IBNR liability estimates. Case loss estimates are reported either individually or in bulk as provided under the terms of the contracts. We may independently evaluate case losses reported by the ceding company, and if deemed appropriate, establish additional case liabilities based on our estimates. Estimated IBNR liabilities are affected by expected case loss emergence patterns and expected loss ratios, which are evaluated as groups of contracts with similar exposures or on a contract-by-contract basis. Estimated case and IBNR liabilities for major catastrophe events are generally based on a per-contract assessment of the ultimate cost associated with the individual loss event. Claim count data is not provided consistently by ceding companies under our contracts or is otherwise considered unreliable. BHRG’s net losses and ALAE incurred and paid are disaggregated and summarized by accident year based on losses that are expected to have shorter claim-tails (property) and losses expected to have longer claim-tails (casualty). Under certain contracts, the coverage can apply to multiple lines of business written by the ceding company, whether property, casualty or combined, and the ceding company may not report loss data by such lines consistently, if at all. In those instances, we allocated losses to property and casualty coverages based on internal estimates. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2024. Dollars are in millions. Property Losses and ALAE Incurred through December 31, Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 IBNR and Case 2015 $ 3,587 $ 3,392 $ 2,827 $ 3,218 $ 3,214 $ 3,236 $ 3,238 $ 3,232 $ 3,255 $ 3,225 $ 94 2016 3,905 4,492 4,170 4,134 4,132 4,121 4,099 4,088 4,091 30 2017 6,374 6,071 5,893 5,767 5,689 5,608 5,590 5,577 51 2018 5,456 5,542 5,402 5,260 5,267 5,218 5,238 207 2019 4,951 5,064 4,838 4,537 4,488 4,447 112 2020 6,914 7,188 6,825 6,620 6,450 376 2021 8,063 7,919 7,585 7,289 450 2022 8,852 8,412 7,916 1,102 2023 7,953 7,379 1,632 2024 7,750 4,225 Losses and ALAE Incurred $ 59,362 Cumulative Losses and ALAE Paid through December 31, Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2015 $ 669 $ 1,793 $ 2,196 $ 2,414 $ 2,522 $ 2,705 $ 2,791 $ 2,843 $ 2,917 $ 2,966 2016 913 2,203 2,662 3,151 3,419 3,615 3,724 3,802 3,889 2017 1,346 3,494 4,564 4,915 5,150 5,343 5,432 5,456 2018 1,204 3,073 3,709 3,992 4,236 4,444 4,571 2019 1,009 2,826 3,532 3,856 4,018 4,082 2020 1,252 3,569 4,613 5,275 5,546 2021 1,621 4,070 5,377 6,073 2022 1,813 4,322 5,588 2023 1,771 4,107 2024 1,720 Losses and ALAE Paid 43,998 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2015 – 2024 accident years 15,364 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2015 487 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 15,851 * Unaudited required supplemental information Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (16) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses Casualty Losses and ALAE Incurred through December 31, Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 IBNR and Case 2015 $ 3,409 $ 3,615 $ 3,655 $ 3,568 $ 3,426 $ 3,388 $ 3,351 $ 3,298 $ 3,300 $ 3,276 $ 311 2016 3,777 3,987 3,891 3,859 3,808 3,765 3,735 3,763 3,793 370 2017 4,028 4,462 4,339 4,232 4,164 4,154 4,211 4,214 432 2018 4,875 5,523 5,476 5,345 5,273 5,359 5,429 647 2019 5,559 6,025 5,885 5,718 5,678 5,751 1,002 2020 6,203 6,215 6,033 6,079 6,053 1,371 2021 6,300 6,270 5,942 5,959 1,838 2022 6,047 6,092 6,045 2,829 2023 6,053 6,144 3,528 2024 6,093 4,660 Losses and ALAE incurred $ 52,757 Cumulative Losses and ALAE Paid through December 31, Accident 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2015 $ 445 $ 990 $ 1,425 $ 1,724 $ 1,996 $ 2,190 $ 2,338 $ 2,473 $ 2,582 $ 2,678 2016 653 1,355 1,795 2,143 2,414 2,607 2,782 2,957 3,095 2017 605 1,306 1,823 2,472 2,720 2,938 3,164 3,350 2018 693 1,737 2,786 3,252 3,631 3,948 4,224 2019 839 1,865 2,414 3,181 3,727 4,094 2020 866 1,900 2,709 3,373 3,967 2021 765 1,781 2,654 3,225 2022 620 1,333 1,963 2023 689 1,575 2024 678 Losses and ALAE paid 28,849 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2015 – 2024 accident years 23,908 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2015 9,442 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 33,350 * Unaudited required supplemental information Required supplemental unaudited average historical claims duration information based on the net losses and ALAE incurred and paid accident year data in the preceding tables follows. The percentages show the average portions of net losses and ALAE paid by each succeeding year, with year 1 representing the current accident year. Average Annual Percentage Payout of Losses Incurred by Age, Net of Reinsurance In Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GEICO Physical Damage 97 % 3 % GEICO Auto Liability 41 % 31 % 13 % 7 % 4 % BH Primary Medical Professional Liability 2 % 8 % 12 % 14 % 13 % 12 % 8 % 8 % 4 % 4 % BH Primary Workers’ Compensation and Other Casualty 14 % 17 % 14 % 12 % 10 % 7 % 5 % 3 % 1 % 1 % BHRG Property 22 % 35 % 15 % 8 % 4 % 4 % 2 % 1 % 2 % 2 % BHRG Casualty 13 % 17 % 13 % 11 % 8 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 4 % 3 % |