Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | (15) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses Our liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (also referred to as “claim liabilities”) under short duration property and casualty insurance and reinsurance contracts are based upon estimates of the ultimate claim costs associated with claim occurrences as of the balance sheet date and include estimates for incurred-but-not-reported 2018 2017 2016 Balances – beginning of year: Gross liabilities $ 61,122 $ 53,379 $ 50,519 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses (3,201 ) (3,338 ) (3,307 ) Net liabilities 57,921 50,041 47,212 Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses: Current accident year events 39,876 37,702 30,636 Prior accident years’ events (1,406 ) (544 ) (1,443 ) Total incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses 38,470 37,158 29,193 Paid losses and loss adjustment expenses: Current accident year events (18,391 ) (17,425 ) (14,898 ) Prior accident years’ events (15,452 ) (12,507 ) (10,929 ) Total payments (33,843 ) (29,932 ) (25,827 ) Foreign currency translation adjustment (331 ) 654 (537 ) Business acquisition 3,181 — — Balances – end of year: Net liabilities 65,398 57,921 50,041 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 3,060 3,201 3,338 Gross liabilities $ 68,458 $ 61,122 $ 53,379 Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses in the preceding table were recorded in earnings in each period and related to insured events occurring in the current year (“current accident year”) and events occurring in all prior years (“prior accident years”). Current accident year losses in 2018 included $1.6 billion from four significant catastrophe events, while current accident year losses in 2017 included approximately $3 billion from six significant catastrophe events during that year. As discussed in Note 2, NICO acquired MLMIC, a writer of medical professional liability insurance, on October 1, 2018. Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses from the net reductions of estimated ultimate liabilities for prior accident years were $1,406 million in 2018, $544 million in 2017 and $1,443 million in 2016. These reductions, as percentages of the net liabilities at the beginning of each year, were 2.4% in 2018, 1.1% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2016. Estimated ultimate liabilities for prior years’ loss events related to primary insurance were decreased $937 million in 2018, $249 million in 2017 and $569 million in 2016. These decreases were primarily attributable to lower than anticipated medical malpractice and workers’ compensation losses. Liabilities for prior years’ private passenger auto claims were also reduced in 2018 and 2016, but were increased in 2017. Estimated ultimate liabilities for prior years’ loss events related to property and casualty reinsurance were reduced $469 million in 2018, $295 million in 2017 and $874 million in 2016. The decrease in 2017 was net of increased losses from a United Kingdom government-mandated change to the computation of certain personal injury lump sum settlements and higher than expected property losses. Estimated claim liabilities for environmental, asbestos and other latent injury exposures, net of reinsurance recoverable, were approximately $1.7 billion at December 31, 2018 and $1.6 billion at December 31, 2017. These liabilities are subject to change due to changes in the legal and regulatory environment as described in Note 16. We are unable to reliably estimate additional losses or a range of losses that are reasonably possible for these claims. A reconciliation of the disaggregated net unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (the latter referred to as “ALAE”) of GEICO, Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (“BHRG”) and Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group (“BH Primary”) to our consolidated unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses as of December 31, 2018, follows (in millions). GEICO BHRG BHRG BH Primary BH Primary Total Unpaid losses and ALAE, net $ 17,318 $ 9,395 $ 19,966 $ 7,288 $ 8,694 $ 62,661 Reinsurance recoverable 896 312 850 53 940 3,051 Unpaid unallocated loss adjustment expenses 2,015 Other unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses 731 Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 68,458 GEICO GEICO’s claim liabilities predominantly relate to various types of private passenger auto liability and physical damage claims. For such claims, we establish and evaluate unpaid claim liabilities using standard actuarial loss development methods and techniques. The actuarial methods utilize historical claims data, adjusted when deemed appropriate to reflect perceived changes in loss patterns. Claim liabilities include average, case, case development and IBNR estimates. We establish average liabilities based on expected severities for newly reported physical damage and liability claims prior to establishing an individual case reserve when we have insufficient time or information to make specific claim estimates and for a large number of minor physical damage claims that once reported are quickly settled. We establish liability case loss estimates, which includes loss adjustment expenses, once the facts and merits of the claim are evaluated. Estimates for liability coverages are more uncertain primarily due to the longer claim-tails, the greater chance of protracted litigation and the incompleteness of facts at the time the case estimate is first established. The “claim-tail” is the time period between the claim occurrence date and settlement date. Consequently, we establish additional case development liabilities, which are usually percentages of the case liabilities. For unreported claims, IBNR liabilities are estimated by projecting the ultimate number of claims expected (reported and unreported) for each significant coverage and deducting reported claims to produce estimated unreported claims. The product of the average cost per unreported claim and the number of unreported claims produces the IBNR liability estimate. We may record supplemental IBNR liabilities in certain situations when actuarial techniques are difficult to apply. GEICO’s incurred and paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance, are summarized by accident year below. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2018. Claim counts are established when accidents that may result in a liability are reported and are based on policy coverage. Each claim event may generate claims under multiple coverages, and thus may result in multiple counts. The “Cumulative Number of Reported Claims” includes the combined number of reported claims for all policy coverages and excludes projected IBNR claims. Dollars are in millions. Accident Year Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, IBNR and Case Cumulative 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2014 $ 14,680 $ 14,572 $ 14,559 $ 14,589 $ 14,651 $ 148 7,976 2015 16,887 16,875 16,993 17,039 319 8,926 2016 19,106 19,390 19,364 823 9,633 2017 22,675 22,257 2,208 10,816 2018 24,120 4,659 10,968 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 97,431 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2014 $ 9,199 $ 12,036 $ 13,140 $ 13,850 $ 14,273 2015 10,606 13,858 15,285 16,186 2016 12,020 15,862 17,493 2017 13,878 18,249 2018 14,498 Paid losses and ALAE 80,699 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2014 – 2018 accident years 16,732 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2014 586 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 17,318 * Unaudited supplemental information BHRG We use a variety of actuarial methodologies to establish BHRG’s property and casualty claims liabilities. We use certain methodologies, such as paid and incurred loss development techniques, incurred and paid loss Bornhuetter-Ferguson techniques and frequency and severity techniques, as well as ground-up Our claims liabilities are principally a function of reported losses from ceding companies, case development and IBNR liability estimates. Case loss estimates are reported under our contracts either individually or in bulk as provided under the terms of the contracts. We may independently evaluate case losses reported by the ceding company, and if deemed appropriate, we may establish case liabilities based on our estimates. Estimated IBNR liabilities are driven by expected case loss emergence patterns and expected loss ratios, which may be evaluated as groups or portfolios of contracts with similar exposures, or on an individual contract-by-contract per-contract Incurred and paid losses and ALAE of BHRG are disaggregated based on losses that are expected to have shorter claim-tails (property) and losses expected to have longer claim-tails (casualty). Under certain contracts, the coverage can apply to multiple lines of business written by the ceding company, whether property, casualty or combined, and the ceding company may not report loss data by such lines consistently, if at all. In those instances, we allocated losses to property and casualty coverages based on internal estimates. BHRG’s disaggregated incurred and paid losses and ALAE are summarized by accident year, net of reinsurance. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2018. Dollars are in millions. BHRG Property Accident Year Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, IBNR and Case 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 2,366 $ 2,037 $ 2,232 $ 2,154 $ 2,058 $ 2,031 $ 1,990 $ 1,985 $1,984 $ 1,984 $ 7 2010 2,523 2,380 2,408 2,274 2,180 2,145 2,126 2,106 2,114 23 2011 4,300 4,084 3,810 3,720 3,719 3,689 3,666 3,652 52 2012 3,144 2,833 2,629 2,389 2,336 2,333 2,315 65 2013 3,196 3,039 2,695 2,604 2,584 2,524 105 2014 2,621 2,427 2,315 2,171 2,115 120 2015 3,244 3,088 2,531 2,938 136 2016 3,267 3,906 3,625 583 2017 5,248 4,958 600 2018 4,373 2,125 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 30,598 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 402 $ 1,110 $ 1,613 $ 1,777 $ 1,846 $ 1,916 $ 1,950 $ 1,959 $ 1,961 $ 1,963 2010 336 1,024 1,506 1,772 1,931 1,987 2,033 2,058 2,065 2011 701 2,282 2,931 3,200 3,310 3,398 3,440 3,485 2012 266 1,222 1,801 1,939 2,028 2,103 2,123 2013 516 1,427 1,866 2,063 2,184 2,264 2014 465 1,244 1,569 1,708 1,773 2015 569 1,590 1,940 2,135 2016 703 1,792 2,187 2017 1,026 2,713 2018 910 Paid losses and ALAE 21,618 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2009 – 2018 accident years 8,980 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2009 415 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 9,395 * Unaudited supplemental information BHRG Casualty Accident Year Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, IBNR and Case 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 2,375 $2,687 $ 2,546 $ 2,476 $ 2,414 $ 2,339 $ 2,292 $ 2,231 $2,192 $ 2,209 $ 213 2010 2,301 2,387 2,322 2,258 2,139 2,090 2,044 1,883 1,963 228 2011 2,609 2,696 2,567 2,508 2,418 2,327 2,320 2,282 363 2012 2,789 2,964 2,799 2,864 2,793 2,682 2,615 514 2013 2,130 2,259 2,290 2,134 2,082 2,028 544 2014 1,867 2,061 2,029 1,991 1,905 611 2015 1,875 2,072 2,099 2,000 647 2016 1,903 2,107 2,014 818 2017 2,189 2,676 1,141 2018 2,917 1,856 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 22,609 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 247 $ 852 $ 940 $ 1,211 $ 1,430 $ 1,586 $ 1,622 $ 1,658 $1,684 $ 1,716 2010 118 546 838 1,026 1,278 1,374 1,437 1,482 1,531 2011 292 817 1,160 1,400 1,489 1,581 1,659 1,698 2012 309 749 1,140 1,370 1,527 1,651 1,750 2013 291 521 807 935 1,039 1,140 2014 150 478 644 753 875 2015 196 491 714 834 2016 253 556 734 2017 231 568 2018 267 Paid losses and ALAE 11,113 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2009 – 2018 accident years 11,496 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2009 8,470 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 19,966 * Unaudited supplemental information BH Primary BH Primary’s liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses primarily derive from medical professional liability and workers’ compensation and other casualty insurance, including commercial auto and general liability insurance. Incurred and paid losses and ALAE are summarized by accident year in the following tables, disaggregated by medical professional liability and workers’ compensation and other casualty coverages. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2018. The cumulative number of reported claims reflects the number of individual claimants, and includes claims that ultimately result in no liability or payment. Dollars are in millions. BH Primary Medical Professional Liability We estimate the ultimate expected incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses for medical professional claim liabilities using commonly accepted actuarial methodologies such as the paid and incurred development method, Bornhuetter-Ferguson based methods, hindsight outstanding severity method, trended severity method and trended pure premium method. Using a combination of these methodologies produces a range of loss estimates from which we determine our best estimate. Periodically, we study developments in older accident years and adjust initial loss estimates to reflect recent development based upon claim age, coverage and litigation experience. As previously noted, MLMIC was acquired on October 1, 2018. MLMIC’s incurred and paid losses and ALAE are included for all years presented retrospectively. Accident Year Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, IBNR and Cumulative 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 1,423 $ 1,349 $ 1,294 $ 1,251 $ 1,153 $ 1,060 $ 988 $ 941 $ 922 $ 904 $ 22 13 2010 1,399 1,346 1,348 1,329 1,234 1,140 1,085 1,031 1,006 43 13 2011 1,346 1,334 1,321 1,262 1,173 1,115 1,050 1,004 71 13 2012 1,336 1,306 1,277 1,223 1,168 1,078 1,035 108 13 2013 1,328 1,296 1,261 1,195 1,127 1,086 160 12 2014 1,370 1,375 1,305 1,246 1,218 296 13 2015 1,374 1,342 1,269 1,290 450 14 2016 1,392 1,416 1,414 641 14 2017 1,466 1,499 1,011 18 2018 1,602 1,410 15 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 12,058 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 5 $ 90 $ 203 $ 350 $ 480 $ 619 $ 699 $ 753 $ 789 $ 810 2010 15 95 224 377 526 654 745 810 853 2011 16 82 200 356 517 632 711 767 2012 15 93 218 377 522 642 725 2013 15 90 219 368 518 635 2014 21 106 238 396 540 2015 23 108 218 382 2016 22 115 274 2017 27 128 2018 35 Paid losses and ALAE 5,149 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2009 – 2018 accident years 6,909 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2009 379 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 7,288 * Unaudited supplemental information BH Primary Workers’ Compensation and Other Casualty We periodically evaluate ultimate loss and loss adjustment expense estimates for the workers’ compensation and other casualty claims using a combination of commonly accepted actuarial methodologies such as the Bornhuetter-Ferguson and chain-ladder approaches using paid and incurred loss data. Paid and incurred loss data is segregated and analyzed by state due to the different state regulatory frameworks that may impact certain factors including the duration and amount of loss payments. We also separately study the various components of liabilities, such employee lost wages, medical expenses and the costs of claims investigations and administration. We establish case liabilities for reported claims based upon the facts and circumstances of the claim. The excess of the ultimate projected losses, including the expected development of case estimates, and the case-basis liabilities is included in IBNR liabilities. Accident Year Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, IBNR and Cumulative 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 732 $ 673 $ 676 $ 632 $ 609 $ 595 $ 589 $ 585 $ 576 $ 562 $ 40 46 2010 715 675 644 609 589 584 576 562 553 42 47 2011 786 706 709 657 653 647 632 622 72 51 2012 907 887 876 828 815 792 779 105 63 2013 1,339 1,310 1,257 1,210 1,173 1,148 188 83 2014 1,866 1,737 1,716 1,641 1,572 287 112 2015 2,314 2,244 2,156 2,124 445 133 2016 2,656 2,561 2,475 833 127 2017 3,262 3,122 1,395 143 2018 3,761 2,459 142 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 16,718 Accident Year Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018 2009 $ 99 $ 228 $ 328 $ 389 $ 434 $ 464 $ 488 $ 499 $ 503 $ 507 2010 106 250 327 393 437 465 479 484 491 2011 114 222 344 415 470 498 512 522 2012 101 301 422 515 576 607 627 2013 193 452 650 776 842 887 2014 247 581 837 1,046 1,155 2015 297 715 1,044 1,328 2016 332 792 1,181 2017 467 1,078 2018 570 Paid losses and ALAE 8,346 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2009 – 2018 accident years 8,372 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2009 322 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 8,694 * Unaudited supplemental information Supplemental unaudited average historical claims duration information based on the net losses and ALAE incurred and paid accident year data in the preceding tables follows. The percentages show the average portions of net losses and ALAE paid by each succeeding year, with year 1 representing the current accident year. Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance In Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GEICO 61.7% 19.6% 8.1% 4.9% 2.8% BHRG Property 19.0% 36.1% 18.3% 7.9% 4.3% 3.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% BHRG Casualty 10.4% 17.8% 11.5% 8.5% 7.4% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% BH Primary Medical Professional Liability 1.6% 7.3% 11.5% 14.5% 14.1% 12.4% 8.4% 6.0% 4.1% 2.3% BH Primary Workers’ Compensation and Other Casualty 15.8% 21.5% 16.5% 12.0% 7.6% 4.6% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.7% |