Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses Our liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (also referred to as “claim liabilities”) under property and casualty insurance and reinsurance contracts are based upon estimates of the ultimate claim costs associated with claim occurrences as of the balance sheet date and include estimates for incurred-but-not-reported (“IBNR”) claims. A reconciliation of the changes in claim liabilities, excluding liabilities under retroactive reinsurance contracts (see Note 16), for each of the three years ending December 31, 2020 is as follows (in millions). 2020 2019 2018 Balances at beginning of year: Gross liabilities $ 73,019 $ 68,458 $ 61,122 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses (2,855 ) (3,060 ) (3,201 ) Net liabilities 70,164 65,398 57,921 Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses: Current accident year events 43,400 43,335 39,876 Prior accident years’ events (356 ) (752 ) (1,406 ) Total 43,044 42,583 38,470 Paid losses and loss adjustment expenses: Current accident year events (17,884 ) (19,482 ) (18,391 ) Prior accident years’ events (18,862 ) (17,642 ) (15,452 ) Total (36,746 ) (37,124 ) (33,843 ) Foreign currency translation adjustment 480 (23 ) (331 ) Business acquisition (disposition) — (670 ) 3,181 Balances at December 31: Net liabilities 76,942 70,164 65,398 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 2,912 2,855 3,060 Gross liabilities $ 79,854 $ 73,019 $ 68,458 Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses shown in the preceding table were recorded in earnings and related to insured events occurring in the current year (“current accident year”) and events occurring in all prior years (“prior accident years”). Current accident year losses included approximately $950 million in 2020, $1.0 billion in 2019 and $1.6 billion in 2018 from significant catastrophe events occurring in each year. Current accident year losses in 2020 also reflected the effects of low private passenger automobile claims frequencies and increased loss commercial insurance and reinsurance business attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. We recorded net reductions of estimated ultimate liabilities for prior accident years of $356 million in 2020, $752 million in 2019 and $1,406 million in 2018, which produced corresponding reductions in incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses. These reductions, as percentages of the net liabilities at the beginning of each year, were 0.5% in 2020, 1.1% in 2019 and 2.4% in 2018. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (Continued) Estimated ultimate liabilities for prior years’ loss events related to primary insurance were reduced by $518 million in 2020, $457 million in 2019 and $937 million in 2018. The decrease in 2020 was primarily attributable to reductions for private passenger automobile, medical professional liability and workers’ compensation claims, partly offset by increases for other casualty claims. The decrease in 2019 reflected reductions in medical professional liability and workers’ compensation claims, partially offset by higher commercial auto and other liability claims. The decrease in 2018 was primarily due to reductions for workers’ compensation, medical professional liability and private passenger automobile claims. Estimated ultimate liabilities for prior years’ loss events related to property and casualty reinsurance increased $162 million in 2020 and were reduced $295 million in 2019 and $469 million in 2018. The increase in 2020 included increased claims estimates for legacy casualty exposures. Estimated claim liabilities included amounts for environmental, asbestos and other latent injury exposures, net of reinsurance recoverable, of approximately $2.1 billion at December 31, 2020 and $1.7 billion at December 31, 2019. These liabilities are subject to change due to changes in the legal and regulatory environment. We are unable to reliably estimate additional losses or a range of losses that are reasonably possible for these claims. Disaggregated information concerning our claims liabilities is provided below and in the pages that follow. The effects of businesses acquired or disposed during the period are reflected in the data presented on a retrospective basis. A reconciliation of the disaggregated net unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (the latter referred to as “ALAE”) of GEICO, Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group (“BH Primary”) and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (“BHRG”) to our consolidated unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses as of December 31, 2020 follows (in millions). GEICO Physical Damage GEICO Auto Liability BH Primary Medical Professional Liability BH Primary Workers’ Compensation and Other Casualty BHRG Property BHRG Casualty Total Unpaid losses and ALAE, net $ 524 $ 18,755 $ 7,897 $ 11,294 $ 11,280 $ 22,890 $ 72,640 Reinsurance recoverable — 1,109 49 621 181 864 2,824 Unpaid unallocated loss adjustment expenses 2,671 Other unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses 1,719 Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 79,854 GEICO GEICO’s claim liabilities predominantly relate to various types of private passenger auto liability and physical damage claims. For such claims, we establish and evaluate unpaid claim liabilities using standard actuarial loss development methods and techniques. The actuarial methods utilize historical claims data, adjusted when deemed appropriate to reflect perceived changes in loss patterns. Claim liabilities include average, case, case development and IBNR estimates. We establish average liabilities based on expected severities for newly reported physical damage and liability claims prior to establishing individual case reserves when insufficient time or information is available for specific claim estimates and for large volumes of minor physical damage claims that once reported are quickly settled. We establish case loss estimates for liability claims, including estimates for loss adjustment expenses, as the facts and merits of the claim are evaluated. Estimates for liability coverages are more uncertain than for physical damage coverages, primarily due to the longer claim-tails, the greater chance of protracted litigation and the incompleteness of facts at the time the case estimate is first established. The “claim-tail” is the time period between the claim occurrence date and settlement date. Consequently, we establish additional case development liabilities, which are usually percentages of the case liabilities. For unreported claims, IBNR liabilities are estimated by projecting the ultimate number of claims expected (reported and unreported) for each significant coverage and deducting reported claims to produce estimated unreported claims. The product of the average cost per unreported claim and the number of unreported claims produces the IBNR liability estimate. We may record supplemental IBNR liabilities in certain situations when actuarial techniques are difficult to apply. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (Continued) GEICO’s incurred and paid losses and ALAE, net of reinsurance, are summarized by accident year below for physical damage and auto liability claims. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2020. Claim counts are established when accidents that may result in a liability are reported and are based on policy coverage. Each claim event may generate claims under multiple coverages, and thus may result in multiple counts. The “Cumulative Number of Reported Claims” includes the combined number of reported claims for all policy coverages and excludes projected IBNR claims. Dollars are in millions. Physical Damage Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, Cumulative Number of Accident Year 2019* 2020 IBNR and Case Development Liabilities Reported Claims (in thousands) 2019 $ 9,020 $ 8,920 $ 69 8,929 2020 8,603 296 7,794 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 17,523 Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2019* 2020 2019 $ 8,678 $ 8,905 2020 8,118 Paid losses and ALAE 17,023 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2019 – 2020 accident years 500 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2019 24 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 524 Auto Liability Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, Cumulative Number of Accident Year 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 IBNR and Case Development Liabilities Reported Claims (in thousands) 2016 $ 11,800 $ 12,184 $ 12,149 $ 12,178 $ 12,198 $ 222 2,451 2017 14,095 13,864 13,888 13,824 502 2,639 2018 15,383 15,226 14,985 1,163 2,702 2019 16,901 16,678 2,905 2,749 2020 14,637 4,482 1,945 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 72,322 Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 2016 $ 5,069 $ 8,716 $ 10,330 $ 11,294 $ 11,718 2017 5,806 9,944 11,799 12,729 2018 6,218 10,772 12,658 2019 6,742 11,671 2020 5,395 Paid losses and ALAE 54,171 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2016 – 2020 accident years 18,151 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2016 604 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 18,755 * Unaudited required supplemental information Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (Continued) BH Primary BH Primary’s liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses primarily derive from medical professional liability and workers’ compensation and other casualty insurance, including commercial auto and general liability insurance. Incurred and paid losses and ALAE are summarized by accident year in the following tables, disaggregated by medical professional liability coverages and workers’ compensation and other casualty coverages. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2020. The cumulative number of reported claims reflects the number of individual claimants and includes claims that ultimately resulted in no liability or payment. Dollars are in millions. BH Primary Medical Professional Liability We estimate the ultimate expected incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses for medical professional claim liabilities using a variety of commonly accepted actuarial methodologies, such as the paid and incurred development method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson based methods, as well as other techniques that consider insured loss exposures and historical and expected loss trends, among other factors. These methodologies produce loss estimates from which we determine our best estimate. In addition, we study developments in older accident years and adjust initial loss estimates to reflect recent development based upon claim age, coverage and litigation experience. Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, Cumulative Number of Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 IBNR and Case Development Liabilities Reported Claims (in thousands) 2011 $ 1,346 $ 1,334 $ 1,321 $ 1,262 $ 1,173 $ 1,115 $ 1,050 $ 1,004 $ 968 $ 972 $ 39 11 2012 1,336 1,306 1,277 1,223 1,168 1,078 1,035 998 988 53 11 2013 1,328 1,296 1,261 1,195 1,127 1,086 1,019 985 65 11 2014 1,370 1,375 1,305 1,246 1,218 1,127 1,061 129 11 2015 1,374 1,342 1,269 1,290 1,218 1,157 202 12 2016 1,392 1,416 1,414 1,394 1,341 286 14 2017 1,466 1,499 1,495 1,474 494 20 2018 1,602 1,650 1,659 780 22 2019 1,670 1,691 1,204 17 2020 1,704 1,529 13 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 13,032 Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 2011 $ 16 $ 82 $ 200 $ 356 $ 517 $ 632 $ 711 $ 767 $ 822 $ 842 2012 15 93 218 377 522 642 725 789 830 2013 15 90 219 368 518 635 743 793 2014 21 106 238 396 540 671 752 2015 23 108 218 382 543 663 2016 22 115 274 461 620 2017 27 128 300 457 2018 35 166 367 2019 39 160 2020 34 Paid losses and ALAE 5,518 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2011– 2020 accident years 7,514 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2011 383 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 7,897 * Unaudited required supplemental information Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (Continued) BH Primary Workers’ Compensation and Other Casualty We periodically evaluate ultimate loss and loss adjustment expense estimates for the workers’ compensation and other casualty claims using a combination of commonly accepted actuarial methodologies such as the Bornhuetter-Ferguson and chain-ladder approaches using paid and incurred loss data. Paid and incurred loss data is segregated and analyzed by state due to the different state regulatory frameworks that may impact certain factors, including the duration and amount of loss payments. We also separately study the various components of liabilities, such as employee lost wages, medical expenses and the costs of claims investigations and administration. We establish case liabilities for reported claims based upon the facts and circumstances of the claim. The excess of the ultimate projected losses, including the expected development of case estimates, and the case-basis liabilities is included in IBNR liabilities. Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, Cumulative Number of Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 IBNR and Case Development Liabilities Reported Claims (in thousands) 2011 $ 738 $ 675 $ 675 $ 624 $ 621 $ 618 $ 607 $ 596 $ 591 $ 576 $ 39 46 2012 873 850 837 791 780 762 750 736 718 53 53 2013 1,258 1,228 1,178 1,127 1,096 1,072 1,050 1,028 120 67 2014 1,743 1,638 1,614 1,548 1,482 1,497 1,477 190 90 2015 2,169 2,127 2,042 2,014 2,025 1,997 267 111 2016 2,511 2,422 2,359 2,325 2,365 470 115 2017 3,044 2,907 2,842 2,843 691 138 2018 3,544 3,412 3,480 1,152 160 2019 4,074 4,102 1,788 170 2020 4,421 2,987 120 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 23,007 Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 2011 $ 109 $ 220 $ 333 $ 403 $ 453 $ 481 $ 496 $ 505 $ 512 $ 519 2012 116 299 414 501 560 592 611 626 634 2013 177 422 609 725 793 835 858 874 2014 239 557 800 1,007 1,111 1,176 1,214 2015 289 700 1,017 1,289 1,488 1,570 2016 329 775 1,148 1,461 1,661 2017 441 1,003 1,434 1,771 2018 538 1,198 1,683 2019 682 1,478 2020 695 Paid losses and ALAE 12,099 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2011 – 2020 accident years 10,908 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2011 386 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 11,294 * Unaudited required supplemental information BHRG We use a variety of methodologies to establish BHRG’s estimates for property and casualty claims liabilities. We use certain methodologies, such as paid and incurred loss development techniques, incurred and paid loss Bornhuetter-Ferguson techniques and frequency and severity techniques, as well as ground-up techniques when appropriate. Our claims liabilities are principally a function of reported losses from ceding companies, case development and IBNR liability estimates. Case loss estimates are reported under our contracts either individually or in bulk as provided under the terms of the contracts. We may independently evaluate case losses reported by the ceding company, and if deemed appropriate, we may establish case liabilities based on our estimates. Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (Continued) Estimated IBNR liabilities are affected by expected case loss emergence patterns and expected loss ratios, which are evaluated as groups of contracts with similar exposures or on a contract-by-contract basis. Estimated case and IBNR liabilities for major catastrophe events are generally based on a per-contract assessment of the ultimate cost associated with the individual loss event. Claim count data is not provided consistently by ceding companies under our contracts or is otherwise considered unreliable. Incurred and paid losses and ALAE of BHRG are disaggregated based on losses that are expected to have shorter claim-tails (property) and losses expected to have longer claim-tails (casualty). Under certain contracts, the coverage can apply to multiple lines of business written by the ceding company, whether property, casualty or combined, and the ceding company may not report loss data by such lines consistently, if at all. In those instances, we allocated losses to property and casualty coverages based on internal estimates. BHRG’s disaggregated incurred and paid losses and ALAE are summarized by accident year, net of reinsurance. IBNR and case development liabilities are as of December 31, 2020. Dollars are in millions. BHRG Property Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 IBNR and Case Development Liabilities 2011 $ 4,111 $ 4,095 $ 3,804 $ 3,711 $ 3,707 $ 3,672 $ 3,654 $ 3,638 $ 3,627 $ 3,616 $ 30 2012 3,153 2,846 2,644 2,403 2,351 2,348 2,329 2,315 2,305 35 2013 3,255 3,093 2,745 2,653 2,631 2,570 2,518 2,504 45 2014 2,648 2,436 2,322 2,178 2,123 2,050 2,021 48 2015 3,287 3,135 2,577 2,979 2,976 3,000 143 2016 3,293 3,923 3,646 3,614 3,616 218 2017 5,291 4,986 4,837 4,727 187 2018 4,426 4,524 4,397 678 2019 4,146 4,299 952 2020 5,858 3,129 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 36,343 Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 2011 $ 609 $ 2,259 $ 2,917 $ 3,188 $ 3,304 $ 3,387 $ 3,429 $ 3,474 $ 3,493 $ 3,507 2012 262 1,232 1,813 1,950 2,040 2,117 2,135 2,181 2,199 2013 526 1,459 1,906 2,105 2,226 2,307 2,347 2,376 2014 467 1,249 1,574 1,713 1,779 1,829 1,858 2015 581 1,614 1,969 2,166 2,271 2,453 2016 709 1,811 2,208 2,670 2,923 2017 1,028 2,734 3,660 3,972 2018 915 2,341 2,868 2019 751 2,282 2020 960 Paid losses and ALAE 25,398 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2011 – 2020 accident years 10,945 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2011 335 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 11,280 * Unaudited required supplemental information Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (Continued) BHRG Casualty Incurred Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 IBNR and Case Development Liabilities 2011 $ 2,635 $ 2,726 $ 2,595 $ 2,536 $ 2,447 $ 2,354 $ 2,346 $ 2,307 $ 2,272 $ 2,255 $ 279 2012 2,820 3,002 2,837 2,899 2,827 2,712 2,645 2,588 2,581 317 2013 2,160 2,298 2,328 2,170 2,114 2,060 1,964 1,892 387 2014 1,900 2,099 2,068 2,030 1,944 1,980 1,970 537 2015 1,902 2,109 2,137 2,035 1,908 1,870 455 2016 1,928 2,138 2,047 2,003 1,922 555 2017 2,216 2,711 2,588 2,494 762 2018 2,948 3,585 3,509 1,183 2019 3,455 3,931 1,924 2020 3,883 2,754 Incurred losses and ALAE $ 26,307 Cumulative Paid Losses and ALAE through December 31, Accident Year 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020 2011 $ 294 $ 824 $ 1,169 $ 1,412 $ 1,501 $ 1,595 $ 1,673 $ 1,713 $ 1,748 $ 1,776 2012 312 757 1,150 1,381 1,539 1,664 1,764 1,825 1,883 2013 294 530 818 947 1,052 1,155 1,215 1,273 2014 153 488 655 765 889 974 1,119 2015 199 500 725 846 938 1,029 2016 255 563 742 874 972 2017 233 574 830 1,282 2018 267 875 1,649 2019 356 906 2020 406 Paid losses and ALAE 12,295 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for 2011 – 2020 accident years 14,012 Net unpaid losses and ALAE for accident years before 2011 8,878 Net unpaid losses and ALAE $ 22,890 * Unaudited required supplemental information Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1 5 ) Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (Continued) Required supplemental unaudited average historical claims duration information based on the net losses and ALAE incurred and paid accident year data in the preceding tables follows. The percentages show the average portions of net losses and ALAE paid by each succeeding year, with year 1 representing the current accident year. Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses by Age, Net of Reinsurance In Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GEICO Physical Damage 97 % 2 % GEICO Auto Liability 42 % 29 % 13 % 7 % 4 % BH Primary Medical Professional Liability 2 % 7 % 12 % 14 % 14 % 12 % 9 % 6 % 5 % 2 % BH Primary Workers’ Compensation and Other Casualty 16 % 21 % 16 % 13 % 8 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 1 % BHRG Property 19 % 37 % 17 % 8 % 4 % 4 % 1 % 2 % 1 % 0 % BHRG Casualty 11 % 16 % 14 % 9 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 2 % 2 % 1 % |