We continue to receive and settle claims for decking products manufactured at our Trex Residential Nevada facility prior to 2007 that exhibit surface flaking and maintain a warranty reserve to provide for the settlement of these claims. We monitor surface flaking claims activity each quarter for indications that our estimates require revision. Typically, a majority of surface flaking claims received in a fiscal year are received during the summer outdoor season, which spans the second and third fiscal quarters.
It has been our practice to utilize actuarial techniques during the third quarter, after a significant portion of all claims has been received for the fiscal year and variances to annual claims expectations are more meaningful. Our actuarial analysis is based on currently known facts and a number of assumptions. Projecting future events such as the number of claims to be received, the number of claims that will require payment and the average cost of claims could cause the actual warranty liabilities to be higher or lower than those projected, which could materially affect our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.
The number of incoming claims received in the nine months ended September 30, 2021 was lower than the number of claims received in the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and lower than our expectations for 2021. Average cost per claim experienced in the nine months ended September 30, 2021 was higher than that experienced in the nine months ended September 30, 2020 but was consistent with expectations for the current year.
We believe the reserve at September 30, 2021 is sufficient to cover future surface flaking obligations. Refer to Note 18,
Commitments and Contingencies, Product Warranty
, in the Notes to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements in Part I. Item 1.
Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements
of this Quarterly Report on
Form 10-Q
for additional information.
We estimate that the annual number of claims received will decline over time and that the average cost per claim will continue to increase, primarily due to inflation. If the level of claims received or average cost per claim differs materially from expectations, it could result in additional increases or decreases to the warranty reserve and a decrease or increase in earnings and cash flows in future periods. We estimate that a 10% change in the expected number of remaining claims to be settled with payment or the expected cost to settle claims may result in approximately a $1.9 million change in the surface flaking warranty reserve.
The following table details surface flaking claims activity related to our warranty:
| | | | | | | | |
| | Nine Months Ended September 30, | |
| | | | | | |
Claims open, beginning of period | | | 1,799 | | | | 1,724 | |
| | | 788 | | | | 1,263 | |
| | | (785 | ) | | | (1,042 | ) |
| | | | | | | | |
Claims open, end of period | | | 1,802 | | | | 1,945 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Average cost per claim (3) | | $ | 3,492 | | | $ | 3,396 | |
(1) | Claims received include new claims received or identified during the period. |
(2) | Claims resolved include all claims settled with or without payment and closed during the period. |
(3) | Average cost per claim represents the average settlement cost of claims closed with payment during the period. |
Our results of operations are affected by economic conditions, including macroeconomic conditions and levels of business and consumer confidence. The
COVID-19
pandemic increased the level of volatility and uncertainty globally and created macroeconomic disruption. As of the date of this report, we have not experienced any material disruptions to our operations, production, or supply chain due to the
COVID-19
pandemic. The pandemic remains an evolving situation and while macro-economic recovery seems likely, the duration and extent of the recovery remains uncertain. We are managing our business to ensure the continuity of operations and the safety of employees. Trex Residential has not experienced any decline in demand for its outdoor living products. Trex Commercial has not experienced any material reduction to its net sales as it has continued to execute on
pre-pandemic
projects. However, measures taken to contain the spread of the virus have influenced new project commitments. We continue to assess if the impact on project commitments will adversely affect Trex Commercial’s financial condition and results of operations in future periods.
Fire at Virginia Facility
On March 13, 2021, an electrical fire occurred at one of our manufacturing buildings in its Virginia complex. No injuries occurred from the event. The building was temporarily
off-line
while damage to the building’s electrical systems was addressed. We have insurance coverage for repairs, incremental direct costs to serve its customers, and losses in operating income from the loss in net sales and are currently working through the claim process with our insurance company. During the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2021, we received partial settlements from our insurance company of $3.7 million and $4.7 million, respectively, resulting in gains on insurance proceeds. The gains on insurance proceeds are reported as a reduction to selling, general and administrative expenses in the Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income.