Exhibit 99(c)(4)
Preliminary Draft
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Project Ohio River
Special Committee Discussion Materials
June 20, 2005
Table of Contents
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[LOGO]
1
Overview
• Received presentation from Buyer Group (April 27, 2005)
• Reviewed preliminary due diligence findings and valuation perspectives with Special Committee (May 4, 2005)
• Presented views on Proposal to Buyer Group financial advisors (May 11, 2005)
• Larry Smith/Comcast public statement regarding triggering dissolution (May 11, 2005)
• S&P downgrades Insight Communications and Insight Midwest bonds (June 1, 2005)
• Received response from Buyer Group financial advisors (June 15, 2005)
• Updated and refreshed due diligence
• Per Management guidance,
• 2005 projections revised
• 2006-2010 projections are substantially unchanged
2
Observations on the Offer
Documentation |
| • No Purchase Agreement has been provided by Buyer Group to date |
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| • Controlling Shareholders stated that they will not agree to any other transaction involving their stake in the Company |
Process |
| • Carlyle is said to have prepared financial projections with little guidance from management |
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| • Controlling Shareholders informed the financial advisors that they have not seen the projections prepared by Carlyle |
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Controlling Shareholders |
| • Controlling Shareholders have 63% of vote and 15% of value ($104 mm as of 06/17/05) |
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Timing |
| • No timetable established |
3
2. Company Information & Performance
Insight Communications vs. Cable Peer Group
Cable Revenue Growth (%) |
| Cable EBITDA Growth (%) | ||||||||||||
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A bar chart showing cable revenue growth expressed in percentages by year.
The bar chart compared Insight cable revenue growth versus a cable peer group (which included Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, Mediacom and Time Warner Cable). |
| Year |
| Insight/Management |
| Peer median |
| A bar chart showing cable EBITDA growth expressed in percentages by year.
The bar chart compared Insight cable EBITDA growth versus a cable peer group (which included Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, Mediacom and Time Warner Cable). | Year |
| Insight/Management |
| Peer median |
|
| 2005 |
| 12.2% |
| 9.3% |
| 2005 |
| 3.8% |
| 10.5% |
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| 2006 |
| 8.6% |
| 8.3% |
| 2006 |
| 10.5% |
| 10.3% |
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| 2007 |
| 8.6% |
| 7.5% |
| 2007 |
| 8.8% |
| 8.4% |
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| 2008 |
| 7.3% |
| 6.4% |
| 2008 |
| 6.1% |
| 6.5% |
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| 2009 |
| 6.1% |
| 5.6% |
| 2009 |
| 4.3% |
| 5.2% |
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| 2010 |
| 4.9% |
| 4.7% |
| 2010 |
| 3.0% |
| 4.3% |
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Cable EBITDA Margin (%) |
| Cable EBITDA per Subscriber ($) | ||||||||||||
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A bar chart showing cable EBITDA margin expressed in percentages by year.
The bar chart compared Insight cable EBITDA margin versus a cable peer group (which included Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, Mediacom and Time Warner Cable). |
| Year |
| Insight/Management |
| Peer median |
| A bar chart showing cable EBITDA per subscriber expressed in dollars by year.
The bar chart compared Insight cable EBITDA per subscriber versus a cable peer group (which included Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, Mediacom and Time Warner Cable). | Year |
| Insight/Management |
| Peer median |
|
| 2005 |
| 39.9% |
| 38.7% |
| 2005 |
| $350 |
| $360 |
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| 2006 |
| 40.5% |
| 39.3% |
| 2006 |
| $391 |
| $402 |
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| 2007 |
| 40.6% |
| 39.6% |
| 2007 |
| $432 |
| $445 |
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| 2008 |
| 40.2% |
| 39.8% |
| 2008 |
| $459 |
| $483 |
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| 2009 |
| 39.5% |
| 39.7% |
| 2009 |
| $479 |
| $513 |
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| 2010 |
| 38.8% |
| 38.6% |
| 2010 |
| $493 |
| $524 |
|
Note: Peer group comprised of Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, Mediacom and Time Warner Cable.
Source: Wall Street Research and Insight Communications Management Projections dated 4/28/05.
4
Basic Penetration (% of Video Homes Passed) |
| Digital Penetration (% of Basic Subs) |
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[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
Data Penetration (% of Video Homes Passed) |
| Telephony Penetration (% of Video Homes Passed) |
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[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
Note: Peer group comprised of Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, Mediacom and Time Warner Cable.
Source: Wall Street Research and Insight Communications Management Projections dated 4/28/05.
5
Basic Subscriber Growth (%) |
| Data Subscriber Growth (%) |
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[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
Digital Subscriber Growth (%) |
| Telephony Subscriber Growth (%) |
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[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
Note: Peer group comprised of Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, Mediacom and Time Warner Cable.
Source: Wall Street Research and Insight Communications Management Projections dated 4/28/05.
6
Insight Communications Actual Performance vs. Budget
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| 2002 |
| 2003 |
| 2004 |
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| Budget |
| Actual |
| % Var. |
| Budget |
| Actual |
| % Var. |
| Budget |
| Actual |
| % Var. |
| ||||||
Basic Sub Revenue |
| $ | 509.7 |
| $ | 506.1 |
| (0.7 | )% | $ | 548.5 |
| $ | 537.0 |
| (2.1 | )% | $ | 581.5 |
| $ | 573.7 |
| (1.4 | )% |
Digital Revenue |
| 71.8 |
| 66.1 |
| (7.9 | ) | 95.0 |
| 83.5 |
| (12.2) |
| 101.1 |
| 98.8 |
| (2.3 | ) | ||||||
HSI Revenue |
| 56.0 |
| 59.0 |
| 5.2 |
| 89.4 |
| 93.9 |
| 5.1 |
| 133.3 |
| 132.0 |
| (0.9 | ) | ||||||
Other |
| 143.4 |
| 180.8 |
| 26.1 |
| 182.2 |
| 188.2 |
| 3.3 |
| 197.7 |
| 198.0 |
| 0.2 |
| ||||||
Total Revenue |
| $ | 780.9 |
| $ | 812.0 |
| 4.0 | % | $ | 915.1 |
| $ | 902.6 |
| (1.4 | )% | $ | 1,013.6 |
| $ | 1,002.5 |
| (1.1 | )% |
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EBITDA |
| $ | 362.2 |
| $ | 355.5 |
| (1.9 | )% | $ | 404.1 |
| $ | 387.1 |
| (4.2 | )% | $ | 430.6 |
| $ | 432.0 |
| 0.3 | % |
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Capex |
| $ | (327.1 | ) | $ | (283.0 | ) | (13.5 | )% | $ | (220.0 | ) | $ | (196.7 | ) | (10.6 | )% | $ | (188.3 | ) | $ | (174.1 | ) | (7.6 | )% |
Homes Passed (’000) |
| 2,241 |
| 2,263 |
| 1.0 | % | 2,310 |
| 2,326 |
| 0.7 | % | 2,343 |
| 2,375 |
| 1.4 | % | ||||||
Basic Cable Subs (’000) |
| 1,302 |
| 1,289 |
| (1.0 | ) | 1,322 |
| 1,294 |
| (2.2 | ) | 1,302 |
| 1,273 |
| (2.3 | ) | ||||||
Digital Subs (’000) |
| 351 |
| 335 |
| (4.6 | ) | 412 |
| 403 |
| (2.1 | ) | 470 |
| 451 |
| (4.0 | ) | ||||||
HSI Subs (’000) |
| 137 |
| 145 |
| 5.7 |
| 211 |
| 230 |
| 9.0 |
| 324 |
| 331 |
| 2.0 |
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Telephony Subs (’000) |
| 48 |
| 31 |
| (35.9 | ) | 80 |
| 55 |
| (30.8 | ) | 76 |
| 64 |
| (15.5 | ) |
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| 2005 Q1 |
| 2005 YTD (a) |
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| Budget |
| Actual |
| % Var. |
| Budget |
| Actual |
| % Var. |
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Basic Sub Revenue |
| $ | 147.5 |
| $ | 147.6 |
| 0.1 | % | $ | 249.7 |
| $ | 249.3 |
| (0.1 | )% |
Digital Revenue |
| 24.6 |
| 26.8 |
| 8.9 |
| 43.1 |
| 45.4 |
| 5.2 |
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HSI Revenue |
| 39.6 |
| 42.1 |
| 6.4 |
| 72.3 |
| 72.8 |
| 0.8 |
| ||||
Other |
| 53.0 |
| 52.8 |
| (0.5 | ) | 89.8 |
| 90.1 |
| 0.3 |
| ||||
Total Revenue |
| $ | 264.7 |
|
| 269.3 |
| 1.7 | % | $ | 454.8 |
| $ | 457.6 |
| 0.6 | % |
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EBITDA |
| $ | 100.1 |
| $ | 107.6 |
| 7.4 | % | $ | 174.8 |
| $ | 192.0 |
| 9.9 | % |
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Capex |
| NA |
| $ | (38.7 | ) | NM |
| NA |
| NA |
| NM |
| |||
Homes Passed (’000) |
| 2,335 |
| 2,384 |
| 2.1 | % | NA |
| 2,393 |
| NM |
| ||||
Basic Cable Subs (’000) |
| 1,267 |
| 1,271 |
| 0.4 |
| 1,273 |
| 1,264 |
| (0.7 | ) | ||||
Digital Subs (’000) |
| 460 |
| 459 |
| (0.2 | ) | 470 |
| 459 |
| (2.3 | ) | ||||
HSI Subs (’000) |
| 361 |
| 368 |
| 1.8 |
| 373 |
| 383 |
| 2.7 |
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Telephony Subs (’000) |
| 72 |
| 69 |
| (5.0 | ) | 77 |
| 72 |
| (7.4 | ) |
Source: Insight Communications budget materials as of 4/28/05 and 06/16/05, and Company filings.
(a) YTD through May 2005.
7
Insight Communications Management Projections – Key Drivers
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| Year Ending December 31, |
| ’05 - ’10 |
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| 2002A |
| 2003A |
| 2004A |
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| CAGR |
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Penetration (a) |
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Basic |
| 57.0 | % | 55.6 | % | 53.6 | % | 53.5 | % | 51.2 | % | 50.6 | % | 50.0 | % | 49.3 | % | 48.7 | % |
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Digital |
| 26.0 |
| 31.1 |
| 35.5 |
| 39.2 |
| 44.2 |
| 48.2 |
| 52.2 |
| 56.2 |
| 60.2 |
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HSI |
| 6.4 |
| 9.9 |
| 13.9 |
| 19.3 |
| 22.4 |
| 25.4 |
| 28.3 |
| 31.1 |
| 33.8 |
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Telephony |
| 1.4 |
| 2.4 |
| 2.7 |
| 4.5 |
| 8.8 |
| 12.7 |
| 16.6 |
| 19.4 |
| 22.0 |
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EOP Subscribers (000’s) |
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Basic |
| 1,289 |
| 1,294 |
| 1,273 |
| 1,287 |
| 1,247 |
| 1,247 |
| 1,247 |
| 1,247 |
| 1,247 |
| (0.6 | )% | |||||||||
Digital |
| 335 |
| 403 |
| 451 |
| 505 |
| 551 |
| 601 |
| 651 |
| 701 |
| 751 |
| 8.3 |
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HSI |
| 145 |
| 230 |
| 331 |
| 464 |
| 545 |
| 625 |
| 705 |
| 785 |
| 865 |
| 13.3 |
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Telephony |
| 31 |
| 55 |
| 64 |
| 107 |
| 214 |
| 314 |
| 414 |
| 489 |
| 564 |
| 39.4 |
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Subscriber Growth |
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Basic |
| 0.4 | % | 0.4 | % | (1.6 | )% | 1.2 | % | (3.1 | )% | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % |
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Digital |
| 29.9 |
| 20.4 |
| 12.0 |
| 11.9 |
| 9.2 |
| 9.1 |
| 8.3 |
| 7.7 |
| 7.1 |
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HSI |
| 64.4 |
| 58.8 |
| 43.7 |
| 40.4 |
| 17.5 |
| 14.7 |
| 12.8 |
| 11.3 |
| 10.2 |
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Telephony |
| 424.1 |
| 81.0 |
| 16.1 |
| 66.9 |
| 99.6 |
| 46.7 |
| 31.8 |
| 18.1 |
| 15.3 |
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Churn |
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Basic |
| 2.6 | % | 2.6 | % | 2.8 | % | 2.8 | % | 2.8 | % | 2.7 | % | 2.7 | % | 2.7 | % | 2.7 | % |
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Digital |
| 6.2 |
| 5.3 |
| 5.3 |
| 5.0 |
| 4.6 |
| 4.3 |
| 4.1 |
| 3.9 |
| 3.8 |
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HSI |
| 3.3 |
| 3.1 |
| 3.6 |
| 3.5 |
| 3.4 |
| 3.4 |
| 3.4 |
| 3.4 |
| 3.4 |
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Telephony |
| 3.9 |
| 4.0 |
| 4.2 |
| 3.4 |
| 3.8 |
| 3.5 |
| 3.7 |
| 3.8 |
| 3.6 |
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ARPU |
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Basic |
| $ | 32.79 |
| $ | 34.66 |
| $ | 37.26 |
| $ | 38.87 |
| $ | 40.48 |
| $ | 41.49 |
| $ | 42.53 |
| $ | 43.38 |
| $ | 44.03 |
| 2.5 | % |
Digital |
| 18.60 |
| 18.86 |
| 19.28 |
| 19.45 |
| 17.76 |
| 17.40 |
| 17.40 |
| 17.40 |
| 17.40 |
| (2.2 | ) | |||||||||
HSI |
| 42.20 |
| 41.77 |
| 39.25 |
| 36.89 |
| 36.81 |
| 34.97 |
| 33.22 |
| 31.56 |
| 29.98 |
| (4.1 | ) | |||||||||
Telephony |
| 28.70 |
| 23.90 |
| 21.24 |
| 34.78 |
| 33.67 |
| 32.83 |
| 32.01 |
| 31.21 |
| 30.43 |
| (2.6 | ) | |||||||||
ARPU Growth |
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Basic |
|
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| 5.7 | % | 7.5 | % | 4.3 | % | 4.1 | % | 2.5 | % | 2.5 | % | 2.0 | % | 1.5 | % |
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Digital |
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| 1.4 |
| 2.2 |
| 0.9 |
| (8.7 | ) | (2.0 | ) | 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
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HSI |
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| (1.0 | ) | (6.0 | ) | (6.0 | ) | (0.2 | ) | (5.0 | ) | (5.0 | ) | (5.0 | ) | (5.0 | ) |
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Telephony |
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| (16.7 | ) | (11.1 | ) | 63.8 |
| (3.2 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (2.5 | ) |
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Source: Insight Communications management projections dated 4/28/05 and 06/15/05 and Company filings.
(a) Penetration calculated as percent of video homes passed, except for digital, which is calculated as percent of EOP basic subscribers.
8
Insight Communications Management Projections – Consolidated
($ in millions)
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| ’05 - ’10 |
| ||||||
|
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| CAGR |
| ||||||
Revenue |
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| ||||||
Basic |
| 597 |
| 607 |
| 621 |
| 637 |
| 649 |
| 659 |
| 2.0 | % | ||||||
Digital |
| 112 |
| 112 |
| 120 |
| 131 |
| 141 |
| 152 |
| 6.3 | % | ||||||
HSI |
| 176 |
| 219 |
| 246 |
| 265 |
| 282 |
| 297 |
| 11.0 | % | ||||||
Commercial |
| 9 |
| 19 |
| 29 |
| 37 |
| 45 |
| 50 |
| 39.5 | % | ||||||
Telephone |
| 36 |
| 66 |
| 104 |
| 140 |
| 169 |
| 192 |
| 40.0 | % | ||||||
Premium |
| 56 |
| 55 |
| 57 |
| 57 |
| 57 |
| 57 |
| 0.1 | % | ||||||
Ad Sales |
| 81 |
| 91 |
| 99 |
| 109 |
| 118 |
| 128 |
| 9.6 | % | ||||||
Franchise Fee |
| 30 |
| 30 |
| 31 |
| 32 |
| 32 |
| 33 |
| 1.6 | % | ||||||
Other |
| 27 |
| 21 |
| 19 |
| 16 |
| 16 |
| 16 |
| (10.3 | )% | ||||||
Total Revenue |
| $ | 1,125 |
| $ | 1,221 |
| $ | 1,326 |
| $ | 1,423 |
| $ | 1,510 |
| $ | 1,584 |
| 7.1 | % |
% Growth |
| 12.2 | % | 8.6 | % | 8.6 | % | 7.3 | % | 6.1 | % | 4.9 | % |
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| ||||||
Less: Direct Costs |
| $ | (307 | ) | $ | (329 | ) | $ | (366 | ) | $ | (407 | ) | $ | (447 | ) | $ | (481 | ) | 9.4 | % |
Less: Operating Costs and SG&A |
| (369 | ) | (397 | ) | (421 | ) | (444 | ) | (466 | ) | (488 | ) | 5.8 | % | ||||||
Total Expenses |
| $ | (676 | ) | $ | (726 | ) | $ | (787 | ) | $ | (851 | ) | $ | (913 | ) | $ | (969 | ) | 7.5 | % |
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| ||||||
Operating Cash Flow (EBITDA) |
| $ | 448 |
| $ | 495 |
| $ | 539 |
| $ | 572 |
| $ | 597 |
| $ | 615 |
| 6.5 | % |
% Margin |
| 39.9 | % | 40.5 | % | 40.6 | % | 40.2 | % | 39.5 | % | 38.8 | % |
|
| ||||||
% Growth |
| 3.8 | % | 10.5 | % | 8.8 | % | 6.1 | % | 4.3 | % | 3.0 | % |
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| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Plus: Corporate Overhead |
| $ | 24 |
| $ | 24 |
| $ | 26 |
| $ | 27 |
| $ | 28 |
| $ | 30 |
| 4.4 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
System Cash Flow |
| $ | 472 |
| $ | 520 |
| $ | 565 |
| $ | 599 |
| $ | 625 |
| $ | 644 |
| 6.4 | % |
% Margin |
| 42.0 | % | 42.5 | % | 42.6 | % | 42.1 | % | 41.4 | % | 40.7 | % |
|
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Cash Flow Data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Capital Expenditures |
| $ | 213 |
| $ | 169 |
| $ | 164 |
| $ | 160 |
| $ | 153 |
| $ | 150 |
| (6.8 | )% |
% of Revenue |
| 18.9 | % | 13.8 | % | 12.3 | % | 11.2 | % | 10.1 | % | 9.5 | % |
|
|
Source: Insight Communications management projections dated 4/28/05 and 6/15/05, and Company filings.
9
Insight Communications Management Projections – Proportionate Summary
($ in millions)
|
| Year End December 31, |
| ’05 - ’10 |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| CAGR |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
50% of Insight Midwest EBITDA |
| $ | 219 |
| $ | 241 |
| $ | 262 |
| $ | 277 |
| $ | 289 |
| $ | 298 |
| 6.4 | % |
ICCI HoldCo EBITDA |
| 11 |
| 14 |
| 16 |
| 17 |
| 18 |
| 19 |
| 12.2 | % | ||||||
Proportionate EBITDA |
| $ | 230 |
| $ | 254 |
| $ | 277 |
| $ | 295 |
| $ | 308 |
| $ | 317 |
| 6.7 | % |
% Growth |
| 7.7 | % | 10.9 | % | 9.0 | % | 6.2 | % | 4.4 | % | 3.0 | % |
|
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Less: Depreciation & Amortization |
| (145 | ) | (152 | ) | (135 | ) | (129 | ) | (122 | ) | (120 | ) | (3.8 | )% | ||||||
Proportionate EBIT |
| $ | 84 |
| $ | 102 |
| $ | 142 |
| $ | 166 |
| $ | 186 |
| $ | 197 |
| 18.6 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Cash Flow Data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Proportionate EBITDA |
| $ | 230 |
| $ | 254 |
| $ | 277 |
| $ | 295 |
| $ | 308 |
| $ | 317 |
| 6.7 | % |
Less: Capital Expenditures |
| (107 | ) | (85 | ) | (82 | ) | (80 | ) | (77 | ) | (76 | ) | (6.7 | )% | ||||||
Plus: Decrease in Working Capital |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| (3.1 | )% | ||||||
Less: Cash Interest Expense |
| (93 | ) | (118 | ) | (136 | ) | (129 | ) | (128 | ) | (117 | ) | 4.7 | % | ||||||
Less: Cash Taxes |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| NM |
| ||||||
Proportionate Free Cash Flow |
| $ | 36 |
| $ | 54 |
| $ | 64 |
| $ | 91 |
| $ | 109 |
| $ | 130 |
| 29.1 | % |
% Growth |
|
|
| 48.9 | % | 19.2 | % | 42.3 | % | 19.2 | % | 19.4 | % |
|
|
Source: Insight Communications management projections dated 4/28/05 and 6/15/05.
Note: Represents proportionate income statement and cash flows (50% of Insight Midwest and 100% of ICCI HoldCo).
10
Dissolution Management Projections
• Assumptions in the event of a dissolution as provided by CompanyManagement
• Dissolution process assumed to be concluded on 12/31/06
• Insight Midwest assets and liabilities assumed to be split 50/50 (no assumption made regarding the asset split)
• Management fee, Interactive and 20% of corporate overhead are eliminated in dissolution
• Programming expenses increase by 300bp
($ in millions)
|
| Year Ending December 31, |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Status Quo |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Midwest Revenue |
| $ | 1,125 |
| $ | 1,221 |
| $ | 1,326 |
| $ | 1,423 |
| $ | 1,510 |
| $ | 1,584 |
|
Midwest EBITDA |
| $ | 438 |
| $ | 481 |
| $ | 523 |
| $ | 555 |
| $ | 578 |
| $ | 595 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
HoldCo EBITDA Adjustments: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Midwest EBITDA (50%) |
| 219 |
| 241 |
| 262 |
| 277 |
| 289 |
| 298 |
| ||||||
Plus: HoldCo Management Fee Income |
| 34 |
| 37 |
| 40 |
| 43 |
| 45 |
| 48 |
| ||||||
Less: HoldCo Corporate Overhead |
| (24 | ) | (24 | ) | (26 | ) | (27 | ) | (28 | ) | (30 | ) | ||||||
Plus: HoldCo Interactive EBITDA Contribution |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Status Quo Proportionate EBITDA |
| $ | 230 |
| $ | 254 |
| $ | 277 |
| $ | 295 |
| $ | 308 |
| $ | 317 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Pro Forma for Dissolution |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Pro Forma Midwest Revenue (50%) |
| $ | 562 |
| $ | 611 |
| $ | 663 |
| $ | 711 |
| $ | 755 |
| $ | 792 |
|
Midwest Level EBITDA Adjustments: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Status Quo Midwest EBITDA |
| 438 |
| 481 |
| 523 |
| 555 |
| 578 |
| 595 |
| ||||||
Add back: Midwest Management Fee Expense |
| 34 |
| 37 |
| 40 |
| 43 |
| 45 |
| 48 |
| ||||||
Add back: Interactive “Expense” to Midwest |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| ||||||
Deduct: Midwest Additional Programming Expense |
| (34 | ) | (37 | ) | (40 | ) | (43 | ) | (45 | ) | (48 | ) | ||||||
Adjusted Midwest EBITDA |
| 441 |
| 485 |
| 527 |
| 558 |
| 582 |
| 599 |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
HoldCo EBITDA Adjustments: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Post-Dissolution Share of Adjusted Midwest EBITDA (50%) |
| 220 |
| 242 |
| 263 |
| 279 |
| 291 |
| 299 |
| ||||||
Less: HoldCo Corporate Overhead (80% of status quo) |
| (19 | ) | (20 | ) | (21 | ) | (22 | ) | (23 | ) | (24 | ) | ||||||
Less: Interactive Costs |
| (2 | ) | (2 | ) | (2 | ) | (2 | ) | (2 | ) | (2 | ) | ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Pro Forma Proportionate EBITDA |
| $ | 199 |
| $ | 221 |
| $ | 241 |
| $ | 256 |
| $ | 266 |
| $ | 274 |
|
% Growth |
| 6.7 | % | 11.0 | % | 9.0 | % | 6.1 | % | 4.2 | % | 2.7 | % | ||||||
% Change vs. Status Quo |
| (13.3 | )% | (13.2 | )% | (13.1 | )% | (13.3 | )% | (13.5 | )% | (13.7 | )% |
Note: Potential tax liability to Comcast in the event of a dissolution prior to 1/1/08 could be as high as approximately $230 million.
11
3. Stock Price Performance & Shareholder Dynamics
ICCI Price Performance Since IPO
[CHART]
(a) One-year averages starting from IPO date (7/23/99).
12
Valuation & Trading Trends
Cable Has Trended up Since July 2004 |
|
[CHART] |
|
ICCI vs. Cable Sector Peers Since July 2004 through 3/4/05 |
|
[CHART] |
|
Still, Values Are Near Historical Lows |
|
[CHART] |
Note: Current bars reflect balance sheet financials as of 12/31/04 (with exception of Comcast and Insight Communications which are as of 3/31/05); share prices as of 6/17/05, and ending Subs as of 12/31/04.
13
Historical Cable Trading Ranges
Cable Sector (a) FV / EBITDA Multiple
[CHART]
Source: Wall Street research.
Note: LTM data based on actual quarterly data. Forward information based on projected quarterly data. FTM and LTM EBITDA for 6/17/2005 reflect financials as of 3/31/05.
(a) Universe comprised of Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox (through 2Q ’04), Insight and Mediacom .
14
Trading Trends Immediately Prior to Offer
Trading Volume Indexed as of December 07, 2004 (LTM Low)
A line graph showing trading volume indexed as of December 7, 2004 (LTM low) expressed as price as a percent of base period |
| As of March 4, 2005 |
|
| ||
|
|
|
| |||
| CVC |
| 34.8% |
|
| |
| ICCI |
| 17.8% |
|
| |
| CMCSA |
| 11.2% |
|
| |
| MCCC |
| 9.9% |
|
| |
| S&P 500 |
| 3.8% |
|
| |
| CH |
| 22.5% |
|
|
15
• Although ICCI was one of the biggest gainers from a share price point-of-view between 12/7/04 and 3/4/05, from a Firm Value perspective, Insight traded relatively close to its peers
ICCI’s Firm Value has traded in line with its peers
[CHART]
Date |
| 12/7/2004 |
| 1/5/2005 |
| 2/2/2005 |
| 3/4/2005 |
|
CVC |
| 9.2 | x | 7.5 | x | 8.2 | x | 8.3 | x |
CHTR (debt at face value) |
| 10.5 |
| 10.0 |
| 9.8 |
| 9.8 |
|
CHTR (debt at market) |
| 9.7 |
| 9.2 |
| 9.0 |
| 9.0 |
|
CMCSK |
| 9.0 |
| 9.2 |
| 9.1 |
| 9.3 |
|
ICCI |
| 8.4 |
| 8.7 |
| 9.0 |
| 8.8 |
|
MCCC |
| 8.5 |
| 8.8 |
| 8.8 |
| 8.6 |
|
Note: Monthly observation of Firm Value beginning on 12/7/04.
16
Stock Price / Volume Distributions
Insight Communications: 3/5/2003 through 3/4/2005 (Pre-announcement)
[CHART]
|
|
| Weighted |
| Volume Traded/ |
|
• | Last 3 Months |
| 9.44 |
| 36.69 | % |
• | Last 6 Months |
| 9.19 |
| 60.53 | % |
• | Last 12 Months |
| 9.22 |
| 140.2 | % |
• | Last 2 Years |
| 10.45 |
| 320.47 | % |
Source: Rover Market Data.
17
Top 25 Shareholders (12/31/04)
• Based on public disclosure, prior to the Offer, 86.7% of shares held by top 25 institutional investors appear to have an estimated average purchase price greater than the current offer price
• Collectively, the top 25 institutional investors account for 88.6% of total Class A shares outstanding (75.9% of total basic shares outstanding)
Top 25 Institutional Investors:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Last 6 Months |
| ||||
Rank |
| Institutional Investor |
| Position as of |
| % Total |
| % Change |
| Avg. Transaction |
| ||
1 |
| Wallace R. Weitz & Co. |
| 8,512 |
| 16.7 | % | (1.9 | )% | $ | 8.78 |
| |
2 |
| Eubel Brady & Suttman Asset Management, Inc. |
| 6,590 |
| 13.0 |
| 1.9 |
| 8.78 |
| ||
3 |
| Westport Asset Management, Inc. |
| 4,895 |
| 9.6 |
| (11.2 | ) | 8.79 |
| ||
4 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. |
| 3,466 |
| 6.8 |
| 32.9 |
| 8.77 |
| ||
5 |
| Barclays Global Investors, N.A. |
| 3,460 |
| 6.8 |
| 4.3 |
| 8.78 |
| ||
6 |
| Columbia Wanger Asset Management LP |
| 2,980 |
| 5.9 |
| 0.0 |
| NA |
| ||
7 |
| Royce & Associates LLC |
| 1,712 |
| 3.4 |
| 2.0 |
| 8.78 |
| ||
8 |
| Granahan Investment Management, Inc. |
| 1,256 |
| 2.5 |
| (28.4 | ) | 8.80 |
| ||
9 |
| Capital Guardian Trust Co. |
| 1,133 |
| 2.2 |
| (225.1 | ) | 8.78 |
| ||
10 |
| Jennison Associates LLC |
| 1,101 |
| 2.2 |
| 7.6 |
| 8.80 |
| ||
11 |
| Dalton, Greiner, Hartman, Maher & Co. |
| 991 |
| 1.9 |
| 20.4 |
| 8.77 |
| ||
12 |
| SSgA Funds Management |
| 882 |
| 1.7 |
| 15.8 |
| 8.80 |
| ||
13 |
| Loeb Partners Corp. |
| 825 |
| 1.6 |
| (32.1 | ) | 8.80 |
| ||
14 |
| F&C Asset Management |
| 792 |
| 1.6 |
| 0.0 |
| NA |
| ||
15 |
| Citadel Investment Group LLC |
| 747 |
| 1.5 |
| 19.6 |
| 8.79 |
| ||
16 |
| Vanguard Group, Inc. |
| 731 |
| 1.4 |
| (0.6 | ) | 8.78 |
| ||
17 |
| Skyline Asset Management LP |
| 698 |
| 1.4 |
| 0.0 |
| NA |
| ||
18 |
| State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio |
| 645 |
| 1.3 |
| 92.3 |
| 8.80 |
| ||
19 |
| Gannett, Welsh & Kotler, Inc. |
| 602 |
| 1.2 |
| 6.6 |
| 8.79 |
| ||
20 |
| Kirr, Marbach & Co. LLC |
| 601 |
| 1.2 |
| 26.6 |
| 8.80 |
| ||
21 |
| Steadfast Advisors LLC |
| 592 |
| 1.2 |
| 7.1 |
| 8.76 |
| ||
22 |
| New Jersey Division of Investment |
| 540 |
| 1.1 |
| 0.0 |
| NA |
| ||
23 |
| John A. Levin & Co., Inc. |
| 454 |
| 0.9 |
| (4.4 | ) | 8.76 |
| ||
24 |
| JPMorgan Investment Advisors, Inc. |
| 429 |
| 0.8 |
| (9.8 | ) | NA |
| ||
25 |
| Northern Trust Global Investments |
| 418 |
| 0.8 |
| (2.8 | ) | 8.76 |
| ||
Total |
|
|
| 45,050 |
| 88.6 | % |
|
| $ | 8.78 |
| |
|
|
|
| Last 12 Months |
| Est. Avg. Purchase |
| |||||
Rank |
| Institutional Investor |
| % Change in |
| Avg. Transaction |
| Price of |
| |||
1 |
| Wallace R. Weitz & Co. |
| 2.8 | % | $ | 9.14 |
| $ | 17.31 |
| |
2 |
| Eubel Brady & Suttman Asset Management, Inc. |
| 17.6 |
| 9.64 |
| 11.11 |
| |||
3 |
| Westport Asset Management, Inc. |
| (18.4 | ) | 9.01 |
| 18.04 |
| |||
4 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. |
| 52.5 |
| 9.08 |
| 10.73 |
| |||
5 |
| Barclays Global Investors, N.A. |
| 17.1 |
| 9.25 |
| 12.22 |
| |||
6 |
| Columbia Wanger Asset Management LP |
| 36.2 |
| 9.35 |
| 12.65 |
| |||
7 |
| Royce & Associates LLC |
| 17.2 |
| 9.38 |
| 10.43 |
| |||
8 |
| Granahan Investment Management, Inc. |
| 19.4 |
| 9.63 |
| 16.18 |
| |||
9 |
| Capital Guardian Trust Co. |
| (324.3 | ) | 9.05 |
| 19.06 |
| |||
10 |
| Jennison Associates LLC |
| 7.4 |
| 8.81 |
| 16.80 |
| |||
11 |
| Dalton, Greiner, Hartman, Maher & Co. |
| 5.5 |
| 9.00 |
| 12.33 |
| |||
12 |
| SSgA Funds Management |
| 15.7 |
| 9.06 |
| 13.34 |
| |||
13 |
| Loeb Partners Corp. |
| (27.5 | ) | 8.90 |
| 13.36 |
| |||
14 |
| F&C Asset Management |
| 25.3 |
| 10.14 |
| 9.88 |
| |||
15 |
| Citadel Investment Group LLC |
| 69.9 |
| 9.65 |
| 10.17 |
| |||
16 |
| Vanguard Group, Inc. |
| 3.6 |
| 9.42 |
| 14.12 |
| |||
17 |
| Skyline Asset Management LP |
| 2.6 |
| 9.28 |
| 18.86 |
| |||
18 |
| State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio |
| 91.7 |
| 8.80 |
| 9.03 |
| |||
19 |
| Gannett, Welsh & Kotler, Inc. |
| 11.5 |
| 9.25 |
| 18.67 |
| |||
20 |
| Kirr, Marbach & Co. LLC |
| 100.0 |
| 9.61 |
| 9.61 |
| |||
21 |
| Steadfast Advisors LLC |
| 100.0 |
| 9.99 |
| 9.99 |
| |||
22 |
| New Jersey Division of Investment |
| 5.6 |
| 9.85 |
| 20.87 |
| |||
23 |
| John A. Levin & Co., Inc. |
| (4.4 | ) | 8.76 |
| 9.80 |
| |||
24 |
| JPMorgan Investment Advisors, Inc. |
| 42.4 |
| 9.52 |
| 10.65 |
| |||
25 |
| Northern Trust Global Investments |
| (4.9 | ) | 9.55 |
| 13.40 |
| |||
Total |
|
|
|
|
| $ | 9.33 |
| $ | 13.54 |
| |
Denotes institutional investors with average purchase price greater than offer price.
(1) Based on total basic Class A shares outstanding as of 3/31/05 per company filings.
(2) Change expressed as percentage of current position.
(3) Estimates based on quarterly volume weighted average price with quarterly position changes.
(4) Estimates based on quarterly volume weighted average price with quarterly position changes since 9/30/1999, assuming average price of position at 9/30/1999 is $24.50 (IPO price on 7/20/99).
Source: FactSet. Data available as of 4/29/05.
18
Top 25 Shareholders (3/31/05)
• During the first quarter of 2005 certain of the large shareholders reduced their positions in ICCI
• Several hedge funds have taken positions in ICCI for the first time in Q1 2005, as highlighted below:
Top 25 Institutional Investors:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Last 3 Months |
| Est. Avg. Purchase |
| |||
Rank |
| Institutional Investor |
| Position as of |
| % Total Shares |
| Change |
| % Change in |
| Price of |
| |
1 |
| Wallace R. Weitz & Co. |
| 6,768 |
| 13.3 | % | (1,744 | ) | (25.8 | )% | $ | 17.31 |
|
2 |
| Eubel Brady & Suttman Asset Management, Inc. |
| 6,062 |
| 11.9 |
| (528 | ) | (8.7 | ) | 11.11 |
| |
3 |
| Westport Asset Management, Inc. |
| 4,590 |
| 9.0 |
| (305 | ) | (6.6 | ) | 18.04 |
| |
4 |
| Barclays Global Investors, N.A. |
| 4,105 |
| 8.1 |
| 645 |
| 15.7 |
| 12.04 |
| |
5 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. |
| 3,588 |
| 7.1 |
| 122 |
| 3.4 |
| 10.74 |
| |
6 |
| Columbia Wanger Asset Management LP |
| 2,980 |
| 5.9 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 12.65 |
| |
7 |
| Rockbay Capital Advisors, Inc. |
| 1,800 |
| 3.5 |
| 1,800 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
8 |
| Caxton Associates LLC |
| 1,056 |
| 2.1 |
| 1,056 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
9 |
| Eton Park Capital Management LP |
| 1,000 |
| 2.0 |
| 1,000 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
10 |
| Loeb Partners Corp. |
| 933 |
| 1.8 |
| 107 |
| 11.5 |
| 13.10 |
| |
11 |
| SSgA Funds Management |
| 929 |
| 1.8 |
| 48 |
| 5.1 |
| 13.23 |
| |
12 |
| Gruss Asset Management LP |
| 863 |
| 1.7 |
| 863 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
13 |
| Vanguard Group, Inc. |
| 741 |
| 1.5 |
| 10 |
| 1.4 |
| 14.07 |
| |
14 |
| Skyline Asset Management LP |
| 698 |
| 1.4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 18.86 |
| |
15 |
| S & E Partners LP |
| 575 |
| 1.1 |
| 575 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
16 |
| New Jersey Division of Investment |
| 540 |
| 1.1 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 20.87 |
| |
17 |
| Empyrean Capital Partners |
| 501 |
| 1.0 |
| 501 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
18 |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. |
| 425 |
| 0.8 |
| 425 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
19 |
| JPMorgan Investment Advisors, Inc. |
| 424 |
| 0.8 |
| (5 | ) | (1.2 | ) | 10.65 |
| |
20 |
| Northern Trust Global Investments |
| 417 |
| 0.8 |
| (1 | ) | (0.3 | ) | 13.40 |
| |
21 |
| Allen & Company, Inc. |
| 404 |
| 0.8 |
| 404 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
22 |
| Deephaven Capital Management LLC |
| 384 |
| 0.8 |
| 384 |
| 100.0 |
| 11.11 |
| |
23 |
| Goldentree Asset Management LP |
| 345 |
| 0.7 |
| 327 |
| 94.6 |
| 11.01 |
| |
24 |
| John A. Levin & Co., Inc. |
| 327 |
| 0.6 |
| (127 | ) | (38.9 | ) | 9.80 |
| |
25 |
| Schaper, Benz & Wise Investment Counsel, Inc. |
| 321 |
| 0.6 |
| 2 |
| 0.7 |
| 11.49 |
| |
Total |
|
|
| 40,776 |
| 80.2 | % | 5,558 |
|
|
| $ | 12.74 |
|
Denotes new shareholders.
(1) Based on total basic Class A shares outstanding as of 3/31/05 per company filings.
(2) Change expressed as percentage of current position.
(3) Estimates based on quarterly volume weighted average price with quarterly position changes.
(4) Estimates based on quarterly volume weighted average price with quarterly position changes since 9/30/1999, assuming average price of position at 9/30/1999 is $24.50 (IPO price on 7/20/99).
Source: FactSet. Data available as of 6/16/05.
19
Insight Q1 Shareholder Momentum
• The largest buyers in Q1 were hedge funds who likely bought their shares post Offer
• Several of the largest owners have partially or entirely reduced their ownership stake in ICCI, again likely after the share price appreciation post Offer
Largest Buyers: 12/31/04 – 3/31/05
Rank |
| Institutional Investor |
| Shares |
| Value ($MM) (1) |
| % Change in |
| |
1 |
| Rockbay Capital Advisors, Inc. |
| 1,800 |
| $ | 20.0 |
| 100.0 | % |
2 |
| Caxton Associates LLC |
| 1,056 |
| 11.7 |
| 100.0 |
| |
3 |
| Eton Park Capital Management LP |
| 1,000 |
| 11.1 |
| 100.0 |
| |
4 |
| Gruss Asset Management LP |
| 863 |
| 9.6 |
| 100.0 |
| |
5 |
| Barclays Global Investors, N.A. |
| 645 |
| 7.2 |
| 15.7 |
| |
6 |
| S & E Partners LP |
| 575 |
| 6.4 |
| 100.0 |
| |
7 |
| Empyrean Capital Partners |
| 501 |
| 5.6 |
| 100.0 |
| |
8 |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. |
| 425 |
| 4.7 |
| 100.0 |
| |
9 |
| Allen & Company, Inc. |
| 404 |
| 4.5 |
| 100.0 |
| |
10 |
| Deephaven Capital Management LLC |
| 384 |
| 4.3 |
| 100.0 |
| |
11 |
| Goldentree Asset Management LP |
| 327 |
| 3.6 |
| 94.6 |
| |
12 |
| Halcyon Asset Management Co. LLC |
| 301 |
| 3.3 |
| 100.0 |
| |
13 |
| Oak Hill Platinum Partners LLC |
| 270 |
| 3.0 |
| 100.0 |
| |
14 |
| York Capital Management LP |
| 264 |
| 2.9 |
| 100.0 |
| |
15 |
| Thales Fund Management LLC |
| 254 |
| 2.8 |
| 100.0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Total |
|
|
| 9,068 |
| $ | 100.8 |
| 94.0 | % |
Denotes top 25 Institutional investors at 3/31/05.
Largest Sellers: 12/31/04 – 3/31/05
Rank |
| Institutional Investor |
| Shares |
| Value ($MM) (1) |
| % of 12/31/04 |
| Rank |
| |
1 |
| Wallace R. Weitz & Co. |
| (1,744 | ) | (19.4 | ) | (20.5 | )% | 1 |
| |
2 |
| Royce & Associates LLC |
| (1,399 | ) | (15.5 | ) | (81.8 | ) | 7 |
| |
3 |
| Granahan Investment Management, Inc. |
| (1,256 | ) | (14.0 | ) | (100.0 | ) | 8 |
| |
4 |
| Capital Guardian Trust Co. |
| (1,133 | ) | (12.6 | ) | (100.0 | ) | 9 |
| |
5 |
| Jennison Associates LLC |
| (1,101 | ) | (12.2 | ) | (100.0 | ) | 10 |
| |
6 |
| Dalton, Greiner, Hartman, Maher & Co. |
| (991 | ) | (11.0 | ) | (100.0 | ) | 11 |
| |
7 |
| F&C Asset Management |
| (751 | ) | (8.3 | ) | (94.9 | ) | 14 |
| |
8 |
| Gannett, Welsh & Kotler, Inc. |
| (602 | ) | (6.7 | ) | (100.0 | ) | 19 |
| |
9 |
| Kirr, Marbach & Co. LLC |
| (601 | ) | (6.7 | ) | (100.0 | ) | 20 |
| |
10 |
| State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio |
| (593 | ) | (6.6 | ) | (92.0 | ) | 18 |
| |
11 |
| Steadfast Advisors LLC |
| (592 | ) | (6.6 | ) | (100.0 | ) | — |
| |
12 |
| Eubel Brady & Suttman Asset Management, Inc. |
| (528 | ) | (5.9 | ) | (8.0 | ) | 2 |
| |
13 |
| Citadel Investment Group LLC |
| (517 | ) | (5.7 | ) | (69.3 | ) | 15 |
| |
14 |
| Martingale Asset Management LP |
| (413 | ) | (4.6 | ) | (100.0 | ) | — |
| |
15 |
| Trinity Investment Management Corp. |
| (399 | ) | (4.4 | ) | (100.0 | ) | — |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Total |
|
|
| (12,621 | ) | $ | (140.2 | ) | (84.4 | )% |
|
|
Denotes top 25 Institutional investors at 12/31/04.
(1) Based on VWAP for the quarter of $11.11.
(2) Change expressed as percentage of current position.
Source: FactSet. Data available as of 6/16/05.
20
Q1 Stock Price / Trading Volume
• Trading volumes in Q1 2005 suggest that the selling from certain large shareholders, as well as the buying by several hedge funds both occurred post Offer at a price higher than the Offer Price
Insight Communications: First Quarter Trading Volume
[CHART]
69% of ICCI share volume in 1Q 2005 traded above the offer price of $10.70.
Source: Rover Market Data.
21
Wall Street Views on Insight
|
| Pre Announcement |
| Post Announcement |
| |||||||||||
Research Firm |
| Date |
| Target Price |
| PV (1) |
| Date |
| Recommendation |
| Target Price |
| |||
Banc of America |
| 02/24/05 |
| $ | 11.00 |
| $ | 9.86 |
| 06/14/05 |
| Neutral |
| $ | 12.00 |
|
Calyon Securities (USA) Inc |
| 02/25/05 |
| 9.50 |
| 8.51 |
| 03/07/05 |
| Neutral |
| 10.70 |
| |||
CIBC World Markets |
| 02/24/05 |
| 13.00 |
| 11.65 |
| 03/21/05 |
| Sector Perform |
| NA |
| |||
Citigroup |
| 02/22/05 |
| 10.00 |
| 8.96 |
| 04/19/05 |
| Hold |
| 12.00 |
| |||
Credit Suisse First Boston |
| 12/21/04 |
| 11.00 |
| 10.06 |
| 03/07/05 |
| Neutral |
| 11.00 |
| |||
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co |
| 02/25/05 |
| 10.00 |
| 8.93 |
| 04/29/05 |
| Market Perform |
| 10.00 |
| |||
Jefferies & Co |
| 02/25/05 |
| 12.00 |
| 10.75 |
| 04/28/05 |
| Hold |
| 12.00 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
RBC Capital Markets |
| 02/25/05 |
| 11.00 |
| 9.85 |
| 05/17/05 |
| Underperform |
| 12.00 |
| |||
Stifel Nicolaus |
| 02/25/05 |
| 16.00 |
| 14.33 |
| 05/03/05 |
| Market Perform |
| NA |
| |||
The Buckingham Research Group |
| 11/01/04 |
| 8.00 |
| 7.29 |
| 03/07/05 |
| Neutral |
| 11.00 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Tradition Asiel Securities Inc. |
| 02/25/05 |
| 13.00 |
| 11.64 |
| 03/07/05 |
| Buy |
| 13.00 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Wachovia Securities |
| 02/24/05 |
| 10.00 |
| 8.96 |
| 03/07/05 |
| Market Perform |
| 11.50 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
Mean |
|
|
| $ | 11.21 |
| $ | 10.07 |
|
|
|
|
| $ | 11.52 |
|
Median |
|
|
| 11.00 |
| 9.85 |
|
|
|
|
| 11.75 |
| |||
Maximum |
|
|
| 16.00 |
| 14.33 |
|
|
|
|
| 13.00 |
| |||
Minimum |
|
|
| 8.00 |
| 7.29 |
|
|
|
|
| 10.00 |
|
|
| Change in |
|
|
|
Research Firm |
| Target Price (2) |
| Transaction Commentary |
|
Banc of America |
| 21.8 | % | Precedents suggest the bidders may need to raise the offer |
|
Calyon Securities (USA) Inc |
| 25.8 | % | NA |
|
CIBC World Markets |
| NA |
|
|
|
Citigroup |
| 33.9 | % | Second bid is likely |
|
Credit Suisse First Boston |
| 9.4 | % | Bid likely to go higher |
|
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co |
| 12.0 | % | We expect the offer to be completed near current levels |
|
Jefferies & Co |
| 11.7 | % | We view the tender price as “a little light” |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RBC Capital Markets |
| 21.8 | % | NA |
|
Stifel Nicolaus |
| NA |
| Offer will likely be sweetened |
|
The Buckingham Research Group |
| 50.9 | % | Strong possibility board will ask for offer above $11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tradition Asiel Securities Inc. |
| 11.7 | % | Clear upside to the contemplated $10.70 offer |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wachovia Securities |
| 28.4 | % | Likely that the deal will close at a higher price than $10.70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mean |
| 22.7 | % |
|
|
Median |
| 21.8 | % |
|
|
Maximum |
| 50.9 | % |
|
|
Minimum |
| 9.4 | % |
|
|
Source: Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Nelson.
|
| Cost of Equity |
| ||||
Change in Target Price |
| 11.0% |
| 12.0% |
| 13.0% |
|
Mean |
| 21.7 | % | 22.7 | % | 23.7 | % |
Median |
| 20.7 |
| 21.8 |
| 22.8 |
|
Source: Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Nelson
(1) Present value of 12 month forward price target discounted to 03/07/05 at an illustrative 12.0% equity cost of capital, with the exception of Buckingham price target, which is discounted from 12/31/05 to 03/07/05.
(2) Calculated as Post Announcement Target Price over Pre Announcement Target Price PV.
22
4. Dissolution Leverage Analysis
Dissolution Leverage Statistics
• Dissolution assumed to occur on 12/31/06, pro forma EBITDA assumptions per Management guidance
• Dissolution Pro Forma leverage statistics assumes all debt at Insight Midwest is refinanced
• ICCI HoldCo 12 ¼% Senior Notes remain in place
|
| Year Ending December 31, |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Status Quo Proportionate Leverage Statistics |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net Debt |
| $ | 1,425 |
| $ | 1,372 |
| $ | 1,301 |
| $ | 1,203 |
| $ | 1,089 |
| $ | 954 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total Proportionate Debt / Proportionate LTM EBITDA |
| 7.0 | x | 6.1 | x | 5.3 | x | 4.6 | x | 4.0 | x | 3.4 | x | ||||||
Proportionate Net Debt / Proportionate LTM EBITDA |
| 6.2 | x | 5.4 | x | 4.7 | x | 4.1 | x | 3.5 | x | 3.0 | x | ||||||
Proportionate Net Debt / (Proportionate LTM EBITDA - CapEx) |
| 11.6 | x | 8.1 | x | 6.7 | x | 5.6 | x | 4.7 | x | 4.0 | x | ||||||
Proportionate LTM EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense |
| 2.5 | x | 2.2 | x | 2.0 | x | 2.3 | x | 2.4 | x | 2.7 | x | ||||||
(Proportionate LTM EBITDA - CapEx) / Cash Interest Expense |
| 1.3 | x | 1.4 | x | 1.4 | x | 1.7 | x | 1.8 | x | 2.1 | x | ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Dissolution Pro Forma Leverage Statistics |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Net Debt |
|
|
| $ | 1,411 |
| $ | 1,367 |
| $ | 1,301 |
| $ | 1,217 |
| $ | 1,120 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total Debt / LTM EBITDA |
|
|
| 6.7 | x | 5.8 | x | 5.2 | x | 4.6 | x | 4.2 | x | ||||||
Net Debt / LTM EBITDA |
|
|
| 6.4 | x | 5.7 | x | 5.1 | x | 4.6 | x | 4.1 | x | ||||||
Net Debt / (LTM EBITDA - CapEx) |
|
|
| 10.4 | x | 8.6 | x | 7.4 | x | 6.4 | x | 5.7 | x | ||||||
LTM EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense |
|
|
| 1.8 | x | 2.0 | x | 2.2 | x | 2.4 | x | 2.6 | x | ||||||
(LTM EBITDA - CapEx) / Cash Interest Expense |
|
|
| 1.1 | x | 1.3 | x | 1.5 | x | 1.7 | x | 1.9 | x | ||||||
|
| Year Ending December 31, |
| |||||||||||||||||||
|
| Status Quo |
| Dissolution Pro Forma |
| |||||||||||||||||
|
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| |||||||
Cash Flow Data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Proportionate EBITDA |
| $ | 230 |
| $ | 254 |
| $ | 221 |
| $ | 241 |
| $ | 256 |
| $ | 266 |
| $ | 274 |
|
Less: Proportionate Capital Expenditures |
| (107 | ) | (85 | ) | (85 | ) | (82 | ) | (80 | ) | (77 | ) | (76 | ) | |||||||
Plus: Proportionate Decrease in Working Capital |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| |||||||
Less: Proportionate Cash Interest Expense |
| (93 | ) | (118 | ) | (122 | ) | (120 | ) | (115 | ) | (111 | ) | (106 | ) | |||||||
Proportionate Free Cash Flow |
| $ | 36 |
| $ | 54 |
| $ | 16 |
| $ | 44 |
| $ | 66 |
| $ | 84 |
| $ | 98 |
|
Note: (1) Assuming an illustrative 8.5x forward EBITDA multiple and an illustrative 12.0% cost of equity, discounted to 3/31/05
Proportionate defined as 50% of Insight Midwest and 100% of Insight HoldCo
23
Dissolution EBITDA Sensitivity Analysis
|
| Year Ending December 31, |
| |||||||||||||
|
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| |||||
Dissolution Pro Forma Leverage Statistics |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
EBITDA |
| $ | 221 |
| $ | 241 |
| $ | 256 |
| $ | 266 |
| $ | 274 |
|
Free Cash Flow |
| 16 |
| 44 |
| 66 |
| 84 |
| 98 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Total Debt / LTM EBITDA |
| 6.7 | x | 5.8 | x | 5.2 | x | 4.6 | x | 4.2 | x | |||||
Net Debt / LTM EBITDA |
| 6.4 | x | 5.7 | x | 5.1 | x | 4.6 | x | 4.1 | x | |||||
Net Debt / (LTM EBITDA - CapEx) |
| 10.4 | x | 8.6 | x | 7.4 | x | 6.4 | x | 5.7 | x | |||||
LTM EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense |
| 1.8 | x | 2.0 | x | 2.2 | x | 2.4 | x | 2.6 | x | |||||
(LTM EBITDA - CapEx) / Cash Interest Expense |
| 1.1 | x | 1.3 | x | 1.5 | x | 1.7 | x | 1.9 | x | |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Dissolution Pro Forma Leverage Statistics w/ 5.0% EBITDA miss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
EBITDA |
| $ | 210 |
| $ | 229 |
| $ | 243 |
| $ | 253 |
| $ | 260 |
|
Free Cash Flow |
| 5 |
| 32 |
| 53 |
| 70 |
| 84 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Total Debt / LTM EBITDA |
| 7.1 | x | 6.1 | x | 5.4 | x | 4.9 | x | 4.4 | x | |||||
Net Debt / LTM EBITDA |
| 6.7 | x | 6.0 | x | 5.4 | x | 4.8 | x | 4.3 | x | |||||
Net Debt / (LTM EBITDA - CapEx) |
| 11.3 | x | 9.3 | x | 8.0 | x | 6.9 | x | 6.1 | x | |||||
LTM EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense |
| 1.7 | x | 1.9 | x | 2.1 | x | 2.3 | x | 2.5 | x | |||||
(LTM EBITDA - CapEx) / Cash Interest Expense |
| 1.0 | x | 1.2 | x | 1.4 | x | 1.6 | x | 1.7 | x | |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Dissolution Pro Forma Leverage Statistics w/ 10.0% EBITDA miss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
EBITDA |
| $ | 199 |
| $ | 217 |
| $ | 230 |
| $ | 240 |
| $ | 246 |
|
Free Cash Flow |
| (6 | ) | 20 |
| 40 |
| 57 |
| 70 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Total Debt / LTM EBITDA |
| 7.5 | x | 6.4 | x | 5.7 | x | 5.2 | x | 4.6 | x | |||||
Net Debt / LTM EBITDA |
| 7.1 | x | 6.3 | x | 5.7 | x | 5.1 | x | 4.5 | x | |||||
Net Debt / (LTM EBITDA - CapEx) |
| 12.4 | x | 10.2 | x | 8.7 | x | 7.5 | x | 6.6 | x | |||||
LTM EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense |
| 1.6 | x | 1.8 | x | 2.0 | x | 2.2 | x | 2.3 | x | |||||
(LTM EBITDA - CapEx) / Cash Interest Expense |
| 0.9 | x | 1.1 | x | 1.3 | x | 1.5 | x | 1.6 | x |
Note: (1) Assuming an illustrative 8.5x forward EBITDA multiple and an illustrative 12.0% cost of equity, discounted to 3/31/05
24
Present Value of Future Stock Prices
• The following prices assume valuations of 8x – 9x the respective years EBITDA discounted to 6/30/05 at a 12% cost of equity
Status Quo
[CHART]
Early Dissolution – 5% EBITDA Miss
[CHART]
Early Dissolution
[CHART]
Early Dissolution – 10% EBITDA Miss
[CHART]
25
Pro Forma Capitalization
• Pro Forma leverage statistics assume debt at Insight Midwest is refinanced
• ICCI is entitled to 50% of the cash at Insight Midwest ($12mm) and responsible for refinancing 50% of the debt
• $1,133 million of Insight Midwest debt refinanced through
• $663 million term loan @ 5.64%
• $470 million high yield notes @ 9.00%
• Total fees of $39 million for recalling and reissuing debt
• Assumes note from Insight Midwest to ICCI HoldCo is repaid, resulting in net $73 million proceeds to ICCI
|
| Year Ending December 31, |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| Status Quo |
| Pro Forma |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| 3/31/2005 |
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2006E (1) |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| ||||||||||
Detailed Balance Sheet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Midwest Level |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Credit Facility |
| $ | 1,467 |
| $ | 1,381 |
| $ | 1,256 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
9 3/4% Senior Notes due 10/09 |
| 379 |
| 385 |
| 385 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
10 1/2% Senior Notes due 11/10 |
| 635 |
| 630 |
| 630 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Note to ICCI HoldCo |
| 130 |
| 132 |
| 145 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Total Debt |
| $ | 2,611 |
| $ | 2,528 |
| $ | 2,417 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Cash & Investments |
| (90 | ) | (24 | ) | (24 | ) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Net Debt |
| $ | 2,521 |
| $ | 2,504 |
| $ | 2,393 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Insight HoldCo Level |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Revolver |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| $ | 0 |
|
| $ | 0 |
| $ | 0 |
| $ | 0 |
| $ | 0 |
| |
Term Loan |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 663 |
| 564 |
| 498 |
| 415 |
| 317 |
| ||||||||||
High Yield Notes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 473 |
| 473 |
| 473 |
| 473 |
| 473 |
| ||||||||||
12 1/4% Senior Notes |
| $ | 314 |
| $ | 343 |
| $ | 350 |
| 350 |
| 350 |
| 350 |
| 350 |
| 350 |
| |||||||
Total Debt |
| $ | 314 |
| $ | 343 |
| $ | 350 |
| $ | 1,486 |
| $ | 1,387 |
| $ | 1,321 |
| $ | 1,237 |
| $ | 1,140 |
| ||
Cash & Investments |
| (32 | ) | (38 | ) | (29 | ) | (75 | ) | (20 | ) | (20 | ) | (20 | ) | (20 | ) | ||||||||||
Note from Insight Midwest |
| (130 | ) | (132 | ) | (145 | ) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Net Debt |
| $ | 152 |
| $ | 172 |
| $ | 176 |
| $ | 1,411 |
| $ | 1,367 |
| $ | 1,301 |
| $ | 1,217 |
| $ | 1,120 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Proportionate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||
Proportionate Total Debt |
| $ | 1,620 |
| $ | 1,607 |
| $ | 1,558 |
| $ | 1,486 |
| $ | 1,387 |
| $ | 1,321 |
| $ | 1,237 |
| $ | 1,140 |
| ||
Proportionate Net Debt |
| 1,413 |
| 1,425 |
| 1,372 |
| 1,411 |
| 1,367 |
| 1,301 |
| 1,217 |
| 1,120 |
| ||||||||||
Note: (1) Pro Forma cash adjusted for $73 mm from paydown of Intercompany note and $12 of Insight Midwest cash, less $39 of refinancing fees Proportionate defined as 50% of Insight Midwest and 100% of Insight HoldCo
26
Midwest Refinancing Assumptions
2006 Status Quo EBITDA (50%) |
| 254 |
|
2006 Pro Forma EBITDA (50%) |
| 221 |
|
|
| Debt Outstanding |
| Current |
| Attributable |
|
|
|
|
| Refinance |
| Call |
| Call |
|
|
| ||
|
| at 3/31/2005 |
| at 12/31/2006 |
| Yield |
| to ICCI |
| Leverage |
| Refinance? |
| Amt |
| Premium |
| Date |
| Total Exp. |
|
Midwest Holdings Term Loan A |
| $356 |
| $165 |
| 4.94 | % | $83 |
| 0.3 | x | Yes |
| $83 |
| 0.00 | % | NA |
| 0.0 |
|
Midwest Holdings Term Loan B |
| 1,111 |
| 1,091 |
| 5.74 |
| 546 |
| 2.1 |
| Yes |
| 546 |
| 0.00 |
| NA |
| 0.0 |
|
Midwest 9.75% Notes |
| 385 |
| 385 |
| 6.82 |
| 193 |
| 0.8 |
| Yes |
| 193 |
| 1.63 |
| 10/1/2006 |
| 3.1 |
|
Midwest 10.5% Notes |
| 630 |
| 630 |
| 7.32 |
| 315 |
| 1.2 |
| Yes |
| 315 |
| 3.50 |
| 11/1/2006 |
| 11.0 |
|
ICCI HoldCo 12.25% Notes |
| 350 |
| 350 |
| 8.69 |
| 350 |
| 1.4 |
| No |
| 0 |
| 4.08 |
| 2/15/2006 |
| 0.0 |
|
Total |
| $2,832 |
| $2,621 |
|
|
| $1,486 |
| 5.8 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| $14.2 |
|
New Capital Structure |
| Leverage |
| Amount |
| Fee (%) |
| Fee ($) |
| Interest |
|
|
|
Revolver |
| 0.0 |
| x |
| $0 |
| 1.75 | % | $0 |
| 0.00 | % |
Term Loan B |
| 3.0 |
| 663 |
| 1.75 | % | 12 |
| 5.64 | % |
|
|
High Yield Notes |
| 2.1 |
| 473 |
| 2.75 | % | 13 |
| 9.00 | % |
|
|
ICCI HoldCo 12.25% Notes |
| 1.6 |
| 350 |
| 0.00 | % | 0 |
| 12.25 | % |
|
|
Total |
| 6.7 |
| x |
| $1,486 |
| $25 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sources and Uses |
|
|
| |
Sources: |
|
|
| |
Total Debt Raised in Refinancing |
| $ | 1,136 |
|
Cash from Intercompany Note |
| 73 |
| |
Cash & Investments from Midwest |
| 12 |
| |
Total Sources |
| $ | 1,220 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Uses: |
|
|
| |
Repayment of Existing Debt |
| $ | 1,136 |
|
Tender Premium / Fees |
| 14 |
| |
Fees from New Issuance |
| 25 |
| |
Cash to Balance Sheet |
| 46 |
| |
Total Uses |
| $ | 1,220 |
|
27
5. Preliminary Valuation Analyses
Transaction Metrics
|
| Insight Communications |
| Cox Communications (a) |
| Cablevision |
| ||||||||||||||||||
($ in millions, except per share data) |
| Day Prior |
| @ Offer |
| Current Price |
| Day Prior |
| Initial Offer |
| Final Offer |
| Day Prior |
| Initial Offer |
| ||||||||
Price |
| $ | 9.68 |
| $ | 10.70 |
| $ | 11.42 |
| $ | 27.58 |
| $ | 32.00 |
| $ | 34.75 |
| $ | 14.37 |
| $ | 21.00 |
|
% Premium to Day Prior |
| — |
| 10.5 | % | 18.0 | % | — |
| 16.0 | % | 26.0 | % | — |
| 46.1 | % | ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Equity Value (b) |
| $ | 582 |
| $ | 647 |
| $ | 693 |
| $ | 17,515 |
| $ | 20,327 |
| $ | 22,077 |
| $ | 4,239 |
| $ | 6,195 |
|
Net Debt & Minority Interest |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 6,670 |
| 6,670 |
| 6,670 |
| 7,371 |
| 7,371 |
| ||||||||
Other Investments (c) |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| (2,552 | ) | (2,552 | ) | (2,552 | ) | 0 |
| 0 |
| ||||||||
Cable Firm Value |
| $ | 1,995 |
| $ | 2,060 |
| $ | 2,106 |
| $ | 21,633 |
| $ | 24,445 |
| $ | 26,195 |
| $ | 11,610 |
| $ | 13,566 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Premium / (Discount) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
10 Trading Day Average |
| 0.7 | % | 11.3 | % | 18.8 | % | (1.4 | )% | 14.4 | % | 24.2 | % | (0.7 | )% | 45.1 | % | ||||||||
1 Month Average |
| (1.7 | ) | 8.7 |
| 16.0 |
| (1.5 | ) | 14.3 |
| 24.1 |
| 3.9 |
| 51.9 |
| ||||||||
3 Month Average |
| 2.4 |
| 13.2 |
| 20.8 |
| (7.2 | ) | 7.7 |
| 16.9 |
| (4.1 | ) | 40.1 |
| ||||||||
6 Month Average |
| 6.1 |
| 17.2 |
| 25.1 |
| (11.1 | ) | 3.1 |
| 12.0 |
| 13.2 |
| 65.5 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Cable FV / EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
2004 |
| 9.4 | x | 9.7 | x | 9.9 | x | 9.0 | x | 10.1 | x | 10.9 | x | 8.8 | x | 10.3 | x | ||||||||
2005 |
| 8.7 |
| 9.0 |
| 9.2 |
| 8.2 |
| 9.2 |
| 9.9 |
| 8.2 |
| 9.6 |
| ||||||||
2006 |
| 7.8 |
| 8.1 |
| 8.3 |
| 7.5 |
| 8.5 |
| 9.1 |
| 7.3 |
| 8.5 |
| ||||||||
LTM (d) |
| 9.2 |
| 9.5 |
| 9.7 |
| 9.2 |
| 10.4 |
| 11.1 |
| 9.1 | x | 10.6 | x | ||||||||
NTM (e) |
| 8.5 |
| 8.7 |
| 8.9 |
| 8.1 |
| 9.1 |
| 9.8 |
| 8.0 |
| 9.4 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
FV / Subscribers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
2004 |
| $ | 3,135 |
| $ | 3,237 |
| $ | 3,309 |
| $ | 3,400 |
| $ | 3,842 |
| $ | 4,117 |
| $ | 3,918 |
| $ | 4,578 |
|
2005 |
| 3,183 |
| 3,286 |
| 3,360 |
| 3,386 |
| 3,826 |
| 4,100 |
| 3,861 |
| 4,511 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Value of Shares to be Purchased (f) |
| $ | 499 |
| $ | 556 |
| $ | 595 |
| $ | 6,633 |
| $ | 7,696 |
| $ | 8,357 |
| $ | 3,391 |
| $ | 4,956 |
|
Note: Insight capitalization is on a proportionate basis that includes 50% of Insight Midwest’s net debt and earnings and 100% of ICCI HoldCo’s net debt and earnings.
Note: Cablevision transaction reflects proposed acquisition of cable and telecom business only. Value based on assumption of 80% of 295 mm fully diluted shares outstanding being sought, based on disclosure in 13-D filing
Note: and information found in latest 10-Q and 10-K. Leverage based on cable debt and EBITDA. Premia based on stock price net of estimated value of Rainbow at $12.50 a share, per 13-D filing.
(a) Cox Communciations shown for illustrative purposes because it was the most recent going-private transaction in the cable industry.
(b) Equity Value for Insight based on shares outstanding, plus restricted stock and in-the-money stock options, net of options proceeds.
(c) Cox includes Discovery value of $2,552 million pre-tax.
(d) LTM for Insight defined as Q2 ’04 to Q1 ’05. LTM for Cox defined as Q4 ’03 to Q3 ’04.
(e) NTM for Insight defined as Q2 ’05 to Q1 ’06. NTM for Cox defined as Q4 ’04 to Q3 ’05.
(f) Net of option proceeds. Assumes 63.8 mm shares outstanding after option exercise, of which 9.1 mm are owned by management and affiliates and 8.5 mm are to be rolled over.
28
Stock Price Premium Analysis
(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share Data and Multiples)
|
|
|
| Day Prior |
| Proposal |
| Market (a) |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Price |
|
|
| Premium / (Discount) to |
|
|
|
| ||||||
1 Day Prior |
| $ | 9.68 |
| 0.0 | % | 10.5 | % | 18.0 | % |
| |||
10 Trading Day Avg. |
| 9.61 |
| 0.7 |
| 11.3 |
| 18.8 |
|
| ||||
1 Month Average |
| 9.84 |
| (1.7 | ) | 8.7 |
| 16.0 |
|
| ||||
3 Month Average |
| 9.45 |
| 2.4 |
| 13.2 |
| 20.8 |
|
| ||||
6 Month Average |
| 9.13 |
| 6.1 |
| 17.2 |
| 25.1 |
|
| ||||
Equity Value (b) |
|
|
|
| $ | 582 |
| $ | 647 |
| $ | 693 |
|
|
of Shares to be Purchased (c) |
|
|
| 499 |
| 556 |
| 595 |
|
| ||||
Proportionate Net Debt |
|
|
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
|
| ||||
Firm Value |
|
|
| 1,995 |
| 2,060 |
| 2,106 |
|
| ||||
Basic Subscribers |
|
|
| Firm Value / |
|
|
|
| ||||||
2004A |
| 636 |
| $ | 3,135 |
| $ | 3,237 |
| $ | 3,309 |
|
| |
2005E |
| 627 |
| 3,183 |
| 3,286 |
| 3,360 |
|
| ||||
EBITDA |
|
|
| Firm Value / |
|
|
|
| ||||||
LTM |
| 217 |
| 9.2 | x | 9.5 | x | 9.7 | x |
| ||||
NTM (Q2 ’05 to Q1 ’06) |
| 236 |
| 8.5 | x | 8.7 | x | 8.9 | x |
| ||||
NTM (Q3 ’05 to Q2 ’06) |
| 242 |
| 8.2 | x | 8.5 | x | 8.7 | x |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
2005E |
| 230 |
| 8.7 | x | 9.0 | x | 9.2 | x |
| ||||
2006E |
| 254 |
| 7.8 |
| 8.1 |
| 8.3 |
|
| ||||
EBITDA - CapEx |
|
|
| Firm Value / |
|
|
|
| ||||||
2005E |
| 122 |
| 16.3 | x | 16.8 | x | 17.2 | x |
| ||||
2006E |
| 169 |
| 11.8 |
| 12.2 |
| 12.4 |
|
| ||||
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (d) |
|
|
| Equity Value / |
|
|
|
| ||||||
2005E |
| (2 | ) | NM |
| NM |
| NM |
|
| ||||
2006E |
| 37 |
| 15.5 | x | 17.3 | x | 18.5 | x |
|
|
| Assumed Purchase Price Per Share |
| |||||||||||||||||||
$11.00 |
| $11.50 |
| $12.00 |
| $12.50 |
| $13.00 |
| $13.50 |
| $14.00 |
| |||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
1 Day Prior |
| 13.6 | % | 18.8 | % | 24.0 | % | 29.1 | % | 34.3 | % | 39.5 | % | 44.6 | % | |||||||
10 Trading Day Avg. |
| 14.5 |
| 19.7 |
| 24.9 |
| 30.1 |
| 35.3 |
| 40.5 |
| 45.7 |
| |||||||
1 Month Average |
| 11.8 |
| 16.8 |
| 21.9 |
| 27.0 |
| 32.1 |
| 37.1 |
| 42.2 |
| |||||||
3 Month Average |
| 16.4 |
| 21.7 |
| 27.0 |
| 32.3 |
| 37.5 |
| 42.8 |
| 48.1 |
| |||||||
6 Month Average |
| 20.5 |
| 26.0 |
| 31.5 |
| 36.9 |
| 42.4 |
| 47.9 |
| 53.4 |
| |||||||
Equity Value (b) |
| $ | 666 |
| $ | 698 |
| $ | 730 |
| $ | 761 |
| $ | 793 |
| $ | 826 |
| $ | 858 |
|
of Shares to be Purchased (c) |
| 572 |
| 600 |
| 627 |
| 655 |
| 683 |
| 695 |
| 723 |
| |||||||
Proportionate Net Debt |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| 1,413 |
| |||||||
Firm Value |
| 2,079 |
| 2,111 |
| 2,143 |
| 2,174 |
| 2,206 |
| 2,239 |
| 2,271 |
| |||||||
Basic Subscribers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
2004A |
| $ | 3,267 |
| $ | 3,317 |
| $ | 3,368 |
| $ | 3,418 |
| $ | 3,468 |
| $ | 3,518 |
| $ | 3,569 |
|
2005E |
| 3,317 |
| 3,368 |
| 3,419 |
| 3,470 |
| 3,521 |
| 3,572 |
| 3,624 |
| |||||||
EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
LTM |
| 9.6 | x | 9.7 | x | 9.9 | x | 10.0 | x | 10.1 | x | 10.3 | x | 10.4 | x | |||||||
NTM (Q2 ’05 to Q1 ’06) |
| 8.8 | x | 9.0 | x | 9.1 | x | 9.2 | x | 9.4 | x | 9.5 | x | 9.6 | x | |||||||
NTM (Q3 ’05 to Q2 ’06) |
| 8.6 | x | 8.7 | x | 8.9 | x | 9.0 | x | 9.1 | x | 9.2 | x | 9.4 | x | |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
2005E |
| 9.1 | x | 9.2 | x | 9.3 | x | 9.5 | x | 9.6 | x | 9.8 | x | 9.9 | x | |||||||
2006E |
| 8.2 |
| 8.3 |
| 8.4 |
| 8.5 |
| 8.7 |
| 8.8 |
| 8.9 |
| |||||||
EBITDA - CapEx |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
2005E |
| 17.0 | x | 17.2 | x | 17.5 | x | 17.8 | x | 18.0 | x | 18.3 | x | 18.5 | x | |||||||
2006E |
| 12.3 |
| 12.5 |
| 12.6 |
| 12.8 |
| 13.0 |
| 13.2 |
| 13.4 |
| |||||||
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (d) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
2005E |
| NM |
| NM |
| NM |
| NM |
| NM |
| NM |
| NM |
| |||||||
2006E |
| 17.8 | x | 18.6 | x | 19.5 | x | 20.3 | x | 21.2 | x | 22.0 | x | 22.9 | x |
Note: Insight capitalization is on a proportionate basis that includes 50% of Insight Midwest’s net debt and earnings and 100% of ICCI HoldCo’s net debt and earnings.
(a) Market price as of June 17, 2005.
(b) Equity Value based on shares outstanding, plus restricted stock and in-the-money stock options, net of options proceeds.
(c) Net of option proceeds. Assumes 63.8 mm shares outstanding after option exercise, of which 9.1 mm are owned by management and affiliates and 8.5 mm are to be rolled over.
(d) Adjusted free cash flow defined as EBITDA less net interest expense, cash taxes and capex
29
Preliminary Valuation Range
[CHART]
Note: Underlying numbers are from Management Projections.
(a) Targeting an IRR of approximately 20%, assumes dissolution 12/31/06, and sale to strategic in 2009.
(b) Targeting an IRR of approximately 20%, assumes dissolution 12/31/06, and IPO in 2009.
30
DCF Valuation Approach
Current Structure
Co-Founders |
|
|
|
|
Sidney R. Knafel |
| Public |
| Carlyle |
Michael S. Willner |
|
|
|
|
ICCI (Public Co.) |
| Comcast |
|
|
|
50% |
| 50% |
|
|
|
Insight Midwest |
Valuation Steps
Discounted Cash Flows + Adj. Terminal Value (a) |
|
[GRAPHIC] |
|
Midwest Firm Value |
|
(-) Midwest Net Debt |
|
[GRAPHIC] |
|
Midwest Equity Value |
|
x 50% (ICCI Ownership) |
|
[GRAPHIC] |
|
ICCI Firm Value |
|
(-) ICCI HoldCo Net Debt (b) |
|
(+) NPV of NOLs |
|
(+) NPV of ICCI HoldCo Cash Flows |
|
[GRAPHIC] |
|
ICCI Equity Value |
(a) Assumes JV is not renewed upon its current contractual termination date of October 1, 2011.
(b) Including option proceeds.
31
DCF – Management Projections
(US $ in millions) |
| Fiscal Year Ended December 30, |
| Dissolution |
| ||||||||||||||
| 2005 |
| 2006 |
| 2007 |
| 2008 |
| 2009 |
|
| ||||||||
Revenue Growth |
| 12.3 | % | 8.6 | % | 8.6 | % | 7.3 | % | 6.1 | % | 4.9 | % | ||||||
EBITDA Growth |
| 5.5 |
| 10.0 |
| 8.7 |
| 6.0 |
| 4.3 |
| (5.4 | ) | ||||||
EBITDA Margin |
| 38.9 |
| 39.4 |
| 39.5 |
| 39.0 |
| 38.3 |
| 34.5 |
| ||||||
Capex / Revenue |
| 18.8 |
| 13.7 |
| 12.2 |
| 11.1 |
| 10.0 |
| 9.5 |
| ||||||
Unlevered FCF / EBITDA |
| 41.0 |
| 50.8 |
| 50.6 |
| 51.3 |
| 51.7 |
| 51.4 |
| ||||||
Revenue |
| $ | 1,125 |
| $ | 1,221 |
| $ | 1,326 |
| $ | 1,423 |
| $ | 1,510 |
| $ | 1,584 |
|
EBITDA |
| 438 |
| 481 |
| 523 |
| 555 |
| 578 |
| 547 |
| ||||||
EBIT |
| 150 |
| 179 |
| 256 |
| 300 |
| 337 |
| 307 |
| ||||||
Less: Taxes at 41% |
| (61 | ) | (74 | ) | (105 | ) | (123 | ) | (138 | ) | (126 | ) | ||||||
Plus: D&A |
| 288 |
| 302 |
| 267 |
| 255 |
| 241 |
| 240 |
| ||||||
Less: CapEx |
| (211 | ) | (168 | ) | (162 | ) | (158 | ) | (151 | ) | (151 | ) | ||||||
Plus: Change in Working Capital |
| 14 |
| 4 |
| 9 |
| 11 |
| 10 |
| 11 |
| ||||||
Unlevered FCF |
| $ | 180 |
| $ | 244 |
| $ | 265 |
| $ | 285 |
| $ | 299 |
| $ | 281 |
|
Terminal Adjusted FCF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| $ | 234 |
|
DCF Valuation (as of 03/31/05) (a) |
|
|
| |
NPV of Cash Flows at 9.0% WACC |
| $ | 991 |
|
Terminal EBITDA (b) |
| 547 |
| |
Terminal Multiple |
| 8.5 | x | |
NPV of Terminal Value at 9.0% WACC |
| $ | 3,086 |
|
Midwest Firm Value |
| $ | 4,077 |
|
Less: Net Debt at Midwest |
| (2,521 | ) | |
Midwest Equity Value |
| $ | 1,556 |
|
Value of ICCI Stake in Midwest (50%) |
| $ | 778 |
|
Less: Net Debt at ICCI HoldCo |
| (152 | ) | |
Plus: Value of NOL’s |
| 153 |
| |
Plus: NPV of Hold Co. Cash Flows |
| 39 |
| |
ICCI Equity Value |
| $ | 817 |
|
Plus: Options Proceeds |
| 51 |
| |
ICCI Fully Converted Equity Value |
| $ | 868 |
|
Implied Price Per ICCI Share |
| $ | 13.37 |
|
(a) DCF valuation shown for illustrative purposes only at 9.0% WACC and a 8.5x FY1 EBITDA exit multiple.
(b) Terminal value based on post-dissolution EBITDA.
32
ICCI Equity Value as of 3/31/05
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | $ | 708 |
| $ | 803 |
| $ | 897 |
| $ | 992 |
| $ | 1,087 |
|
8.5 | % | 671 |
| 764 |
| 857 |
| 950 |
| 1,042 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 636 |
| 726 |
| 817 |
| 908 |
| 999 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 601 |
| 690 |
| 778 |
| 867 |
| 956 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | 567 |
| 654 |
| 741 |
| 828 |
| 915 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Implied Value per Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | $ | 11.66 |
| $ | 13.14 |
| $ | 14.61 |
| $ | 16.07 |
| $ | 17.53 |
|
8.5 | % | 11.08 |
| 12.54 |
| 13.98 |
| 15.41 |
| 16.84 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 10.52 |
| 11.95 |
| 13.37 |
| 14.77 |
| 16.17 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 9.98 |
| 11.37 |
| 12.77 |
| 14.14 |
| 15.51 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | 9.45 |
| 10.81 |
| 12.17 |
| 13.53 |
| 14.87 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Implied FV Multiple of 2005E EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | 8.8 | x | 9.3 | x | 9.7 | x | 10.1 | x | 10.6 | x | |||||
8.5 | % | 8.7 |
| 9.1 |
| 9.5 |
| 9.9 |
| 10.3 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 8.5 |
| 8.9 |
| 9.3 |
| 9.7 |
| 10.1 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 8.3 |
| 8.7 |
| 9.1 |
| 9.5 |
| 10.0 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | 8.2 |
| 8.6 |
| 9.0 |
| 9.4 |
| 9.8 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | 2.1 | % | 2.5 | % | 2.8 | % | 3.1 | % | 3.3 | % | |||||
8.5 | % | 2.6 |
| 2.9 |
| 3.3 |
| 3.6 |
| 3.8 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 3.1 |
| 3.4 |
| 3.8 |
| 4.0 |
| 4.3 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 3.5 |
| 3.9 |
| 4.2 |
| 4.5 |
| 4.8 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | 4.0 |
| 4.4 |
| 4.7 |
| 5.0 |
| 5.3 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Corresponding Premium to Pre-Offer Price Per Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | 20.4 | % | 35.8 | % | 50.9 | % | 66.0 | % | 81.1 | % | |||||
8.5 | % | 14.5 |
| 29.5 |
| 44.4 |
| 59.2 |
| 74.0 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 8.7 |
| 23.4 |
| 38.1 |
| 52.6 |
| 67.0 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 3.1 |
| 17.5 |
| 31.9 |
| 46.1 |
| 60.2 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | (2.4 | ) | 11.7 |
| 25.8 |
| 39.8 |
| 53.6 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Implied FV Multiple of 2006E EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | 8.0 | x | 8.4 | x | 8.8 | x | 9.2 | x | 9.6 | x | |||||
8.5 | % | 7.9 |
| 8.2 |
| 8.6 |
| 9.0 |
| 9.4 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 7.7 |
| 8.1 |
| 8.5 |
| 8.8 |
| 9.2 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 7.6 |
| 7.9 |
| 8.3 |
| 8.7 |
| 9.0 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | 7.4 |
| 7.8 |
| 8.2 |
| 8.5 |
| 8.9 |
|
33
DCF Sensitivities
Pricing Sensitivity
• Penetration from Management Projections
• Telephony & HSI ARPU varied in each projected year and in terminal period
|
| Change in Telephony ARPU |
| |||||||||||||
|
| (10.0%) |
| (7.5%) |
| (5.0%) |
| (2.5%) |
| 0.0% |
| |||||
Change in HSI ARPU |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
(10.0 | )% | $ | 10.60 |
| $ | 10.85 |
| $ | 11.11 |
| $ | 11.37 |
| $ | 11.63 |
|
(7.5 | )% | 11.03 |
| 11.29 |
| 11.55 |
| 11.81 |
| 12.07 |
| |||||
(5.0 | )% | 11.47 |
| 11.72 |
| 11.98 |
| 12.24 |
| 12.50 |
| |||||
(2.5 | )% | 11.90 |
| 12.16 |
| 12.42 |
| 12.68 |
| 12.94 |
| |||||
0.0 | % | 12.34 |
| 12.60 |
| 12.85 |
| 13.11 |
| 13.37 |
| |||||
Penetration Sensitivity
• ARPU from Management Projections
• Penetration of HSI and Telephony varied through 2010
|
| Cumulative Change in Telephony Penetration by 2010 |
| |||||||||||||
|
| (10.0%) |
| (7.5%) |
| (5.0%) |
| (2.5%) |
| 0.0% |
| |||||
Cum. Change in HSI Penet by 2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
(10.0 | )% | $ | 6.63 |
| $ | 7.40 |
| $ | 8.16 |
| $ | 8.93 |
| $ | 9.66 |
|
(7.5 | )% | 7.62 |
| 8.39 |
| 9.15 |
| 9.87 |
| 10.59 |
| |||||
(5.0 | )% | 8.61 |
| 9.36 |
| 10.08 |
| 10.80 |
| 11.52 |
| |||||
(2.5 | )% | 9.57 |
| 10.29 |
| 11.01 |
| 11.73 |
| 12.44 |
| |||||
0.0 | % | 10.50 |
| 11.22 |
| 11.93 |
| 12.65 |
| 13.37 |
| |||||
34
DCF – Dissolution Management Projections
|
| Fiscal Year Ended December 30, |
| ||||||||||||||||||
($ in millions) |
| 2005 |
| 2006 |
| 2007 |
| 2008 |
| 2009 |
| 2010 |
| ||||||||
EBITDA |
| 230 |
| 254 |
| 241 |
| 256 |
| 266 |
| 274 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
EBIT |
| 84 |
| 102 |
| 106 |
| 127 |
| 144 |
| 154 |
| ||||||||
Less: Taxes |
| (34 | ) | (42 | ) | (43 | ) | (52 | ) | (59 | ) | (63 | ) | ||||||||
Plus: D&A |
| 145 |
| 152 |
| 135 |
| 129 |
| 122 |
| 120 |
| ||||||||
Less: CapEx |
| (107 | ) | (85 | ) | (82 | ) | (80 | ) | (77 | ) | (76 | ) | ||||||||
Plus: Change in Working Capital |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| ||||||||
Unlevered FCF |
| $ | 95 |
| $ | 130 |
| $ | 120 |
| $ | 129 |
| $ | 136 |
| $ | 141 |
| ||
Terminal Adjusted FCF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| $ | 117 |
| |||||||
DCF Valuation (as of 03/31/05) (a) |
|
|
| |
NPV of Cash Flows at 9.0% WACC |
| $ | 475 |
|
Terminal EBITDA (b) |
| 274 |
| |
Terminal Multiple |
| 8.5 | x | |
NPV of Terminal Value at 9.0% WACC |
| $ | 1,543 |
|
Midwest Firm Value |
| $ | 2,018 |
|
Less: Net Debt at Midwest |
| (1,261 | ) | |
Midwest Equity Value |
| $ | 758 |
|
Value of ICCI Stake in Midwest |
| $ | 758 |
|
Less: Net Debt at ICCI HoldCo |
| (152 | ) | |
Plus: Value of NOL’s |
| 131 |
| |
Plus: NPV of Hold Co. Cash Flows |
| NA |
| |
Less: PV of Refinance for Dissolution |
| (33 | ) | |
ICCI Equity Value |
| $ | 703 |
|
Plus: Options Proceeds |
| 36 |
| |
ICCI Fully Converted Equity Value |
| $ | 738 |
|
Implied Price Per ICCI Share |
| $ | 11.58 |
|
(a) DCF valuation shown for illustrative purposes only at 9.0% WACC and a 8.5x FY1 EBITDA exit multiple
(b) Terminal value based on post-dissolution EBITDA
35
ICCI Equity Value as of 3/31/05
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | $ | 592 |
| $ | 687 |
| $ | 782 |
| $ | 877 |
| $ | 971 |
|
8.5 | % | 556 |
| 649 |
| 742 |
| 835 |
| 927 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 521 |
| 612 |
| 703 |
| 794 |
| 884 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 487 |
| 576 |
| 665 |
| 754 |
| 842 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | 454 |
| 541 |
| 628 |
| 715 |
| 802 |
| |||||
Implied Value per Share
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| |||||||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| |||||
8.0 | % | $ | 9.84 |
| $ | 11.33 |
| $ | 12.82 |
| $ | 14.29 |
| $ | 15.75 |
|
8.5 | % | 9.28 |
| 10.74 |
| 12.19 |
| 13.64 |
| 15.07 |
| |||||
9.0 | % | 8.70 |
| 10.16 |
| 11.58 |
| 13.00 |
| 14.41 |
| |||||
9.5 | % | 8.14 |
| 9.59 |
| 10.98 |
| 12.38 |
| 13.76 |
| |||||
10.0 | % | 7.58 |
| 9.03 |
| 10.40 |
| 11.77 |
| 13.13 |
| |||||
Implied FV Multiple of 2005E EBITDA
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| ||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
|
8.0 | % | 8.3 | x | 8.7 | x | 9.1 | x | 9.6 | x | 10.0 | x |
8.5 | % | 8.2 |
| 8.6 |
| 9.0 |
| 9.4 |
| 9.8 |
|
9.0 | % | 8.0 |
| 8.4 |
| 8.8 |
| 9.2 |
| 9.6 |
|
9.5 | % | 7.9 |
| 8.2 |
| 8.6 |
| 9.0 |
| 9.4 |
|
10.0 | % | 7.7 |
| 8.1 |
| 8.5 |
| 8.8 |
| 9.2 |
|
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| ||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
|
8.0 | % | 2.1 | % | 2.5 | % | 2.8 | % | 3.1 | % | 3.3 | % |
8.5 | % | 2.6 |
| 2.9 |
| 3.3 |
| 3.6 |
| 3.8 |
|
9.0 | % | 3.1 |
| 3.4 |
| 3.8 |
| 4.0 |
| 4.3 |
|
9.5 | % | 3.5 |
| 3.9 |
| 4.2 |
| 4.5 |
| 4.8 |
|
10.0 | % | 4.0 |
| 4.4 |
| 4.7 |
| 5.0 |
| 5.3 |
|
Corresponding Premium to Pre-Offer Price Per Share
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| ||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
|
8.0 | % | 1.7 | % | 17.1 | % | 32.4 | % | 47.6 | % | 62.7 | % |
8.5 | % | (4.1 | ) | 10.9 |
| 25.9 |
| 40.9 |
| 55.7 |
|
9.0 | % | (10.1 | ) | 4.9 |
| 19.6 |
| 34.3 |
| 48.8 |
|
9.5 | % | (16.0 | ) | (0.9 | ) | 13.5 |
| 27.9 |
| 42.2 |
|
10.0 | % | (21.7 | ) | (6.7 | ) | 7.5 |
| 21.5 |
| 35.6 |
|
Implied FV Multiple of 2006E EBITDA
|
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| ||||||||
WACC |
| 7.5 x |
| 8.0 x |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
|
8.0 | % | 7.5 | x | 7.9 | x | 8.2 | x | 8.6 | x | 9.0 | x |
8.5 | % | 7.4 |
| 7.7 |
| 8.1 |
| 8.5 |
| 8.8 |
|
9.0 | % | 7.2 |
| 7.6 |
| 7.9 |
| 8.3 |
| 8.6 |
|
9.5 | % | 7.1 |
| 7.4 |
| 7.8 |
| 8.1 |
| 8.5 |
|
10.0 | % | 7.0 |
| 7.3 |
| 7.6 |
| 8.0 |
| 8.3 |
|
36
Peer Group Trading Analysis (5/10/05)
Cable Firm Value / 2005 EBITDA |
| Cable Firm Value / Latest Subs |
|
|
|
[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
|
|
|
Total Cable Debt / LTM Cable EBITDA |
| Firm Value / 2005 EBITDA - Capex |
|
|
|
[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
Source: Wall Street Research and Company Filings.
Note: Valuation statistics shown based on proportionate valuation methodology. Total Insight cable debt excludes HoldCo note. Current stock prices as of 5/10/05.
37
Peer Group Trading Analysis (6/17/05)
Cable Firm Value / 2005 EBITDA |
| Cable Firm Value / Latest Subs |
|
|
|
[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
|
|
|
Total Cable Debt / LTM Cable EBITDA |
| Firm Value / 2005 EBITDA - Capex |
|
|
|
[CHART] |
| [CHART] |
Source: Wall Street Research and Company Filings.
Note: Valuation statistics shown based on proportionate valuation methodology. Total Insight cable debt excludes HoldCo note. Current stock prices as of 6/17/05.
38
Multiples Analysis – Status Quo
Public Market Multiples
($ in millions, Except per Share Data)
|
|
|
| Multiple Range |
| Implied Firm Value |
| Implied Equity Value (a) |
| Implied Equity |
| |||||||||||||||||
Metric |
| Data |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| |||||||||
2004A EBITDA |
| $ | 213 |
| 9.0 | x | 10.0 | x | $ | 1,919 |
| $ | 2,132 |
| $ | 506 |
| $ | 719 |
| $ | 8.44 |
| $ | 11.83 |
| ||
2005E EBITDA |
| 230 |
| 8.5 |
| 9.5 |
| 1,951 |
| 2,181 |
| 538 |
| 768 |
| 8.99 |
| 12.60 |
| |||||||||
2006E EBITDA |
| 254 |
| 8.0 |
| 9.0 |
| 2,036 |
| 2,290 |
| 623 |
| 877 |
| 10.32 |
| 14.30 |
| |||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||
2004 Subscribers |
| 636 |
| $ | 3,000 |
| $ | 3,500 |
| $ | 1,909 |
| $ | 2,227 |
| $ | 496 |
| $ | 814 |
| $ | 8.28 |
| $ | 13.32 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Max |
| $ | 10.32 |
| $ | 14.30 |
| |||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| 9.01 |
| 13.01 |
| |||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median |
| 8.72 |
| 12.96 |
| |||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Low |
| 8.28 |
| 11.83 |
| |||||||||||
(a) Equity Value = Firm Value - Proportionate Net Debt
(b) Shares outstanding fluctuate based on fully converted share count for the implied equity value per share.
Precedent Transactions
($ in millions, Except per Share Data)
|
|
|
| Multiple Range |
| Implied Firm Value |
| Implied Equity Value (a) |
| Implied Equity |
| |||||||||||||||||
Metric |
| Data |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| |||||||||
2005E EBITDA |
| $ | 230 |
| 10.0 | x | 11.0 | x | $ | 2,295 |
| $ | 2,525 |
| $ | 882 |
| $ | 1,112 |
| $ | 14.38 |
| $ | 17.91 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||
2004 Subscribers |
| 636 |
| $ | 3,500 |
| $ | 4,000 |
| $ | 2,227 |
| $ | 2,545 |
| $ | 814 |
| $ | 1,132 |
| $ | 13.32 |
| $ | 18.22 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| $ | 13.85 |
| $ | 18.07 |
| |||||||||
(a) Equity Value = Firm Value - Proportionate Net Debt
(b) Shares outstanding fluctuate based on fully converted share count for the implied equity value per share.
39
Multiples Analysis - Dissolution
Public Market Multiples
($ in millions, Except per Share Data)
|
|
|
| Multiple Range |
| Implied Firm Value |
| Implied Equity Value (a) |
| Implied Equity |
| |||||||||||||||||
Metric |
| Data |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| |||||||||
2004A EBITDA |
| $ | 187 |
| 9.0 | x | 10.0 | x | $ | 1,679 |
| $ | 1,866 |
| $ | 266 |
| $ | 453 |
| $ | 4.44 |
| $ | 7.56 |
| ||
2005E EBITDA |
| 199 |
| 8.5 |
| 9.5 |
| 1,692 |
| 1,891 |
| 279 |
| 478 |
| 4.66 |
| 7.99 |
| |||||||||
2006E EBITDA |
| 221 |
| 8.0 |
| 9.0 |
| 1,768 |
| 1,989 |
| 355 |
| 576 |
| 5.92 |
| 9.59 |
| |||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||
2004 Subscribers |
| 636 |
| $ | 3,000 |
| $ | 3,500 |
| $ | 1,909 |
| $ | 2,227 |
| $ | 496 |
| $ | 814 |
| $ | 8.28 |
| $ | 13.32 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Max |
| $ | 8.28 |
| $ | 13.32 |
| |||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| 5.83 |
| 9.61 |
| |||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median |
| 5.29 |
| 8.79 |
| |||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Low |
| 4.44 |
| 7.56 |
| |||||||||||
(a) Equity Value = Firm Value - Proportionate Net Debt
(b) Shares outstanding fluctuate based on fully converted share count for the implied equity value per share.
Precedent Transactions
($ in millions, Except per Share Data)
|
|
|
| Multiple Range |
| Implied Firm Value |
| Implied Equity Value (a) |
| Implied Equity |
| |||||||||||||||||
Metric |
| Data |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| |||||||||
2005E EBITDA |
| $ | 199 |
| 10.0 | x | 11.0 | x | $ | 1,991 |
| $ | 2,190 |
| $ | 578 |
| $ | 777 |
| $ | 9.62 |
| $ | 12.74 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||||||
2004 Subscribers |
| 636 |
| $ | 3,500 |
| $ | 4,000 |
| $ | 2,227 |
| $ | 2,545 |
| $ | 814 |
| $ | 1,132 |
| $ | 13.32 |
| $ | 18.22 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| $ | 11.47 |
| $ | 15.48 |
| |||||||||
(a) Equity Value = Firm Value - Proportionate Net Debt
(b) Shares outstanding fluctuate based on fully converted share count for the implied equity value per share.
40
Premia Paid in Going Private Transactions
• Since 2000, all completed cash going private transactions received both initial offer premia and a subsequent increase (“the bump”)
Summary of Announced Going Private Transactions, 2000 -Present
|
| Average Cash |
| |
|
| Minority |
| |
Criteria |
| Squeeze-Outs |
| |
Transaction Value |
| $ | 918 |
|
Percent Acquired |
| 33.6 | % | |
Timing & Frequency |
|
|
| |
Frequency of a Bump (a) |
| 92.3 | % | |
Announcement - Bump |
| 75 Days |
| |
Bump - Close |
| 65 Days |
| |
Announcement - Close |
| 138 Days |
| |
Offer Premium |
|
|
| |
Ann. to 1 Day Pre-Annc. |
| 27.8 | % | |
Ann. to 30 Days Pre-Annc. |
| 29.5 |
| |
Ann. to Bump Prem. Change |
| 15.2 |
| |
Source: Citigroup Risk Arbitrage Strategy Group as of March 9, 2005.
(a) Includes announced deals that have not yet closed; all completed deals have received a “bump”.
41
Squeeze Outs Analysis – 100% Cash Transactions
• Data below is for 100% cash transactions in which acquirers sought 20% or greater of target equity
Precedent All Cash Transactions
Date |
| Date |
| Target |
| Acquiror |
| % Sought |
| Target’s |
| Transaction Value ($ mm) (b) |
| Price |
| Initial Premium (c) |
| Final Premium (c) |
| |||||||||||
at Announcement |
| at Execution |
| Initial |
| Final |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day | ||||||||||||||||
20-Jun-05 |
| Not Closed |
| Cablevision Systems |
| Dolan Family |
| 80.0 | % | 5.0 | x | $ | 4,956 |
| — |
| $ | 21.00 |
| — |
| 46.1 | % | 51.9 | % | — |
| — |
| |
21-Feb-05 |
| Not Closed |
| Eon Labs |
| Novartis |
| 34.6 |
| NM |
| 989 |
| — |
| 31.00 |
| — |
| 11.0 |
| 18.2 |
| — |
| — |
| |||
02-Aug-04 |
| 02-Dec-04 |
| Cox Communications |
| Cox Enterprises |
| 38.0 |
| 2.9 |
| 7,857 |
| 8,532 |
| 32.00 |
| $ | 34.75 |
| 16.0 |
| 13.6 |
| 26.0 | % | 23.4 | % | ||
22-Jul-04 |
| 23-Dec-04 |
| AMC Entertainment |
| Investor Group |
| 50.1 |
| 2.8 |
| N/A |
| 834 |
| N/A |
| 19.50 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 13.6 |
| 28.5 |
| |||
19-Feb-02 |
| 11-Apr-02 |
| Travelocity.com Inc |
| Sabre Holdings Corp. |
| 30.0 |
| 0.1 |
| 403 |
| 491 |
| 23.00 |
| 28.00 |
| 19.8 |
| 1.0 |
| 45.8 |
| 23.0 |
| |||
21-Sep-01 |
| 08-Nov-01 |
| Prodigy Communications Corp. |
| SBC Communications |
| 58.3 |
| 4.4 |
| 409 |
| 496 |
| 5.45 |
| 6.60 |
| 54.0 |
| 2.3 |
| 86.4 |
| 23.9 |
| |||
25-Jan-01 |
| 20-Jun-01 |
| Sodexho Marriott Services |
| Sodexho Alliance |
| 52.0 |
| 3.2 |
| 989 |
| 1,173 |
| 27.00 |
| 32.00 |
| 8.5 |
| 23.0 |
| 28.6 |
| 45.8 |
| |||
27-Oct-00 |
| 16-Mar-01 |
| Azurix Corp. |
| Enron Corp. |
| 33.0 |
| 6.8 |
| 276 |
| 330 |
| 7.00 |
| 8.38 |
| 96.5 |
| 73.5 |
| 135.1 |
| 107.6 |
| |||
15-Aug-00 |
| 01-Mar-01 |
| Avis Group Holdings |
| Cendant |
| 82.0 |
| 1.6 |
| 823 |
| 937 |
| 29.00 |
| 33.00 |
| 13.7 |
| 29.4 |
| 29.4 |
| 47.3 |
| |||
24-Jul-00 |
| 11-Jan-01 |
| Phoenix Investment Partners |
| Phoenix Home Life Mutual |
| 40.5 |
| 1.9 |
| 344 |
| 434 |
| 12.50 |
| 15.75 |
| 15.6 |
| 19.8 |
| 45.7 |
| 50.9 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean: |
| 31.3 | % | 25.9 | % | 51.3 | % | 43.8 | % | |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median: |
| 16.0 |
| 19.8 |
| 37.5 |
| 37.2 |
| |||
Note: Data is for 100% cash transactions in which acquirors sought 20% or greater of target equity, and where transaction value was greater than $200 mm.
Cablevision transaction reflects proposed acquisition of cable and telecom business only. Value based on assumption of 80% of 295 mm fully diluted shares outstanding being sought, based on disclosure in 13-D filing and information found in latest 10-Q and 10-K. Leverage based on cable debt and EBITDA. Premia based on stock price net of estimated value of Rainbow at $12.50 a share, per 13-D filing.
(a) Leverage defined as Total Debt & Preferred / LTM EBITDA.
(b) Represents equity value of the minority shareholders’ stake, which the acquiror proposed to acquire in the transaction.
(c) One-day premium measured relative to target’s closing stock price on last trading day prior to annoucement date; 30-day premium measured relative to target’s average closing stock price during the 30-day trading period prior to announcement date.
Implied ICCI Stock Prices
|
|
|
| Final Premium Paid (a) |
| Implied Stock Price |
| |||||||
|
| Stock Price |
| Low |
| High |
| Low |
| High |
| |||
One Day Prior |
| $ | 9.68 |
| 25.0 | % | 30.0 | % | $ | 12.10 |
| $ | 12.58 |
|
30 Day Average Prior (b) |
| 9.93 |
| 25.0 |
| 30.0 |
| 12.42 |
| 12.91 |
| |||
(a) Based on median data from precedent squeeze out analysis.
(b) Average of 30 trading days prior to announcement date.
42
“No Bump” Deals Highlighted by Morgan Stanley
• 5 deals were highlighted by Morgan Stanley as having no improvement in offer
Deals Highlighted by Morgan Stanley
|
|
|
|
|
| Per Morgan Stanley |
| |||||||||
Date |
| Target |
| Acquirer |
| Value |
| % |
| Cons. |
| Prem./ |
| Prem./ |
| |
02/15/01 |
| Westfield America Inc |
| Westfield America Trust |
| $ | 598 |
| 44 | % | Cash |
| 13.0 | % | (5.0 | )% |
08/14/00 |
| BHC Communications |
| News Corp |
| 888 |
| 24 | % | Mixed |
| 16.0 | % | (3.0 | )% | |
02/22/00 |
| Ixnet Inc |
| Global Crossing Ltd. |
| 877 |
| 28 | % | Stock |
| 18.0 | % | 18.0 | % | |
02/02/00 |
| Thermo Instrument Systems |
| Thermo Electron Corp |
| 832 |
| 11 | % | Stock |
| 27.0 | % | 27.0 | % | |
05/07/99 |
| J Ray McDermott SA |
| McDermott International |
| 515 |
| 37 | % | Cash |
| 17.0 | % | (24.0 | )% | |
Date |
| Special |
| Prenegotiated? |
| Comments |
| Source |
|
02/15/01 |
| Yes |
| Yes |
| - Initial offer proposed to Special Committee for a cash purchase price of $15.75 to $16.00 per Share. |
| Merger Proxy |
|
08/14/00 |
| Yes |
| Yes |
| - Initial offer from Viacom for $155 per share to Special Committee of BHC. |
| Merger Proxy |
|
02/22/00 |
| No Official Committee - Independent Directors approved merger separately |
| Yes |
| - On 1/11/2000, executives of IX Corp (IXNet’s majority holder), IXnet and Global Crossing discuss possible merger. |
| Merger Proxy |
|
02/02/00 |
| Yes |
| Yes |
| - Buyer announced plans to restructure its overall business structure and planned to take Thermo Electron private, as part of the Company’s continued evaluation over the previous few years. |
| Tender Offer Statement |
|
05/07/99 |
| Yes |
| Yes |
| - Buyer delivered its initial proposal to the Independent Committee at an exchange ratio of 1.15 shares of Parent Stock per share |
| Tender Offer Statement |
|
43
LBO Analysis –Sale to Strategic (post-Dissolution)
LBO Summary
(Dollars in Millions) |
|
|
| |
Purchase Price |
| $ | 10.70 |
|
|
|
|
| |
ICCI Equity Value |
| $ | 647 |
|
Plus: Proportionate Net Debt (3/31/05) |
| 1,413 |
| |
Enterprise Value |
| $ | 2,060 |
|
2005E Proportionate EBITDA Multiple |
| 9.0 | x | |
Proportionate Debt / 2005E Dissolution EBITDA |
| 7.1 | x | |
|
|
|
| |
Exit Multiple |
| 9.0 | x | |
2010E EBITDA (1) |
| $ | 317 |
|
Value of Midwest |
| $ | 2,851 |
|
Less: Proportionate Net Debt (12/31/09) |
| (1,217 | ) | |
Less: Promote Profits Interest |
| (52 | ) | |
Implied Equity Value (Midwest) |
| $ | 1,582 |
|
Implied Value per ICCI Share |
| $ | 25.37 |
|
IRR |
| 20.7 | % |
(1) Assumes sale to strategic post-dissolution on 12/31/09
IRR Sensitivity Analysis
At 7.1x Proportionate Debt / 2005E Dissolution EBITDA
|
| Share Price Paid |
| ||||||||||||
|
| $10.70 |
| $11.20 |
| $11.50 |
| $11.75 |
| $12.00 |
| $13.00 |
| $14.00 |
|
Exit Multiple |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.5 | x | 18.4 | % | 17.3 | % | 16.6 | % | 16.1 | % | 15.6 | % | 13.7 | % | 12.0 | % |
9.0 | x | 20.7 | % | 19.6 | % | 19.0 | % | 18.4 | % | 17.9 | % | 16.1 | % | 14.3 | % |
9.5 | x | 22.8 | % | 21.7 | % | 21.1 | % | 20.6 | % | 20.1 | % | 18.1 | % | 16.4 | % |
10.0 | x | 24.7 | % | 23.6 | % | 23.0 | % | 22.5 | % | 22.0 | % | 20.1 | % | 18.3 | % |
10.5 | x | 26.4 | % | 25.4 | % | 24.8 | % | 24.3 | % | 23.8 | % | 21.8 | % | 20.1 | % |
At 8.1x Proportionate Debt / 2005E Dissolution EBITDA
|
| Share Price Paid |
| ||||||||||||
|
| $10.70 |
| $11.20 |
| $11.50 |
| $11.75 |
| $12.00 |
| $13.00 |
| $14.00 |
|
Exit Multiple |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.5 | x | 21.3 | % | 19.8 | % | 18.9 | % | 18.1 | % | 17.4 | % | 14.9 | % | 12.6 | % |
9.0 | x | 24.2 | % | 22.6 | % | 21.8 | % | 21.0 | % | 20.4 | % | 17.8 | % | 15.5 | % |
9.5 | x | 26.7 | % | 25.2 | % | 24.4 | % | 23.6 | % | 22.9 | % | 20.4 | % | 18.0 | % |
10.0 | x | 28.9 | % | 27.4 | % | 26.6 | % | 25.9 | % | 25.3 | % | 22.7 | % | 20.4 | % |
10.5 | x | 31.0 | % | 29.4 | % | 28.6 | % | 27.9 | % | 27.2 | % | 24.8 | % | 22.4 | % |
44
LBO Analysis – IPO (post-Dissolution)
LBO Summary
(Dollars in Millions) |
|
|
| |
Purchase Price |
| $ | 10.70 |
|
|
|
|
| |
ICCI Equity Value |
| $ | 647 |
|
Plus: Proportionate Net Debt (3/31/05) |
| 1,413 |
| |
Enterprise Value |
| $ | 2,060 |
|
2005E Proportionate EBITDA Multiple |
| 9.0 | x | |
Proportionate Debt / 2005E Dissolution EBITDA |
| 7.1 | x | |
|
|
|
| |
Exit Multiple |
| 8.0 | x | |
2010E EBITDA (1) |
| $ | 274 |
|
Value of Midwest |
| $ | 2,188 |
|
Less: Proportionate Net Debt (12/31/09) |
| (1,217 | ) | |
Less: Promote Profits Interest |
| 0 |
| |
Implied Equity Value (Midwest) |
| $ | 971 |
|
Implied Value per ICCI Share |
| $ | 15.78 |
|
IRR |
| 8.9 | % |
(1) Assumes IPO on 12/31/09
IRR Sensitivity Analysis
|
| Share Price Paid |
| ||||||||||||
|
| $10.70 |
| $11.20 |
| $11.50 |
| $11.75 |
| $12.00 |
| $13.00 |
| $14.00 |
|
Exit Multiple |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.5 | x | 5.5 | % | 4.4 | % | 3.8 | % | 3.3 | % | 2.9 | % | 1.1 | % | (0.6 | )% |
8.0 | x | 8.9 | % | 7.8 | % | 7.2 | % | 6.7 | % | 6.2 | % | 4.3 | % | 2.7 | % |
8.5 | x | 11.9 | % | 10.8 | % | 10.2 | % | 9.7 | % | 9.2 | % | 7.3 | % | 5.5 | % |
9.0 | x | 14.5 | % | 13.4 | % | 12.8 | % | 12.3 | % | 11.8 | % | 9.9 | % | 8.2 | % |
9.5 | x | 16.9 | % | 15.8 | % | 15.2 | % | 14.7 | % | 14.2 | % | 12.2 | % | 10.5 | % |
At 8.1x Proportionate Debt / 2005E Dissolution EBITDA
|
| Share Price Paid |
| ||||||||||||
|
| $10.70 |
| $11.20 |
| $11.50 |
| $11.75 |
| $12.00 |
| $13.00 |
| $14.00 |
|
Exit Multiple |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.5 | x | 3.2 | % | 1.8 | % | 0.9 | % | 0.3 | % | (0.4 | )% | (2.7 | )% | (4.8 | )% |
8.0 | x | 8.4 | % | 6.9 | % | 6.0 | % | 5.3 | % | 4.6 | % | 2.2 | % | (0.0 | )% |
8.5 | x | 12.7 | % | 11.1 | % | 10.3 | % | 9.6 | % | 8.9 | % | 6.3 | % | 4.0 | % |
9.0 | x | 16.3 | % | 14.7 | % | 13.8 | % | 13.1 | % | 12.4 | % | 9.9 | % | 7.6 | % |
9.5 | x | 19.4 | % | 17.8 | % | 16.9 | % | 16.2 | % | 15.6 | % | 13.0 | % | 10.7 | % |
45
Present Value of Future Stock Prices – Public Market
• These cases represent mutually exclusive potential outcomes
• Due to the uncertainty surrounding these scenarios, we cannot assume a probability-weighted outcome
[CHART]
Note: Value as of 3/31/05. Assumes future stock prices discounted based on a 11-13% cost of equity. Dissolution valuations based on pro forma post-dissolution EBITDA, as per Insight Management guidance.
46
Theoretical Strategic Sale
• A multiple range of 9.0x-9.5x in a strategic sale appears conservative when assessing recent cable M&A precedent transactions (see p. 54)
($ in millions)
|
| Year Ending December 31, |
| ||||||||||
|
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Pro Forma Proportionate Revenue |
| $ | 663 |
| $ | 711 |
| $ | 755 |
| $ | 792 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Pro Forma Proportionate EBITDA |
| $ | 241 |
| $ | 256 |
| $ | 266 |
| $ | 274 |
|
Plus: Half of Proportionate Additional Programming Expense |
| 10 |
| 11 |
| 11 |
| 12 |
| ||||
Plus: Half of HoldCo Corporate Overhead |
| 10 |
| 11 |
| 11 |
| 12 |
| ||||
Plus: Other Operational Synergies |
| 4 |
| 8 |
| 13 |
| 19 |
| ||||
Pro Forma Proportionate EBITDA with 50% Synergies |
| $ | 265 |
| $ | 285 |
| $ | 302 |
| $ | 317 |
|
% Margin |
| 40.0 | % | 40.0 | % | 40.0 | % | 40.0 | % | ||||
% Change vs. Status Quo |
| (4.4 | )% | (3.4 | )% | (1.8 | )% | (0.0 | )% |
|
| Assumed Post Dissolution Exit Date |
| ||||||||||
|
| 12/31/2006 |
| 12/31/2007 |
| 12/31/2008 |
| 12/31/2009 |
| ||||
FY1 Exit Multiple |
| 9.5 | x | 9.5 | x | 9.5 | x | 9.5 | x | ||||
FY1 EBITDA |
| $ | 265 |
| $ | 285 |
| $ | 302 |
| $ | 317 |
|
Terminal Value |
| $ | 2,519 |
| $ | 2,703 |
| $ | 2,868 |
| $ | 3,009 |
|
Implied Non-Synergized Multiple |
| 10.5 | x | 10.6 | x | 10.8 | x | 11.0 | x | ||||
Implied TEV / Sub |
| $ | 4,040 |
| $ | 4,335 |
| $ | 4,600 |
| $ | 4,826 |
|
Less: Proportionate Net Debt |
| (1,411 | ) | (1,367 | ) | (1,301 | ) | (1,217 | ) | ||||
Less: Cost of Dissolution Refinance |
| (39 | ) | (37 | ) | (35 | ) | (29 | ) | ||||
Equity Value |
| $ | 1,070 |
| $ | 1,300 |
| $ | 1,533 |
| $ | 1,763 |
|
Plus: Cash from Option Exercise |
| 51 |
| 51 |
| 53 |
| 53 |
| ||||
Fully Converted Equity Value |
| $ | 1,121 |
| $ | 1,350 |
| $ | 1,586 |
| $ | 1,816 |
|
Fully Converted Shares |
| 64.9 |
| 64.9 |
| 65.0 |
| 65.0 |
| ||||
Implied Future Price Per ICCI Share |
| $ | 17.27 |
| $ | 20.80 |
| $ | 24.39 |
| $ | 27.94 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Present Value (at 12.0% cost of equity) (a) |
| $ | 14.16 |
| $ | 15.23 |
| $ | 15.94 |
| $ | 16.30 |
|
If miss EBITDA projections by 2.5% |
| 13.36 |
| 14.46 |
| 15.22 |
| 15.62 |
| ||||
If miss EBITDA projections by 5.0% |
| 12.56 |
| 13.70 |
| 14.49 |
| 14.95 |
| ||||
If miss EBITDA projections by 10.0% |
| 10.97 |
| 12.18 |
| 13.05 |
| 13.60 |
|
|
| Sensitivity of 12/31/06 Exit |
| ||||||||||
Cost of |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple |
| ||||||||||
Equity (a) |
| 8.5 x |
| 9.0 x |
| 9.5 x |
| 10.0 x |
| ||||
11.0 | % | $ | 10.98 |
| $ | 12.68 |
| $ | 14.38 |
| $ | 16.08 |
|
11.5 | % | 10.89 |
| 12.58 |
| 14.27 |
| 15.95 |
| ||||
12.0 | % | 10.80 |
| 12.48 |
| 14.16 |
| 15.83 |
| ||||
12.5 | % | 10.72 |
| 12.38 |
| 14.05 |
| 15.71 |
| ||||
13.0 | % | 10.64 |
| 12.29 |
| 13.94 |
| 15.59 |
| ||||
(a) Share price discounted to 03/31/05.
47
Insight Communications Management Projections – Midwest Only Summary
($ in millions)
|
| Year End December 31, |
| ’05 - ’10 |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| CAGR |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Revenue |
| $ | 1,125 |
| $ | 1,221 |
| $ | 1,326 |
| $ | 1,423 |
| $ | 1,510 |
| $ | 1,584 |
| 7.1 | % |
% Growth |
| 12.3 | % | 8.6 | % | 8.6 | % | 7.3 | % | 6.1 | % | 4.9 | % |
|
| ||||||
Direct Costs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Consolidated Direct Costs |
| $ | (307 | ) | $ | (329 | ) | $ | (366 | ) | $ | (407 | ) | $ | (447 | ) | $ | (481 | ) | 9.4 | % |
Include: Interactive Revenue |
| (3 | ) | (4 | ) | (4 | ) | (4 | ) | (4 | ) | (4 | ) | 3.1 | % | ||||||
Exclude: Interactive Direct Costs |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 4.4 | % | ||||||
Total Direct Costs |
| $ | (310 | ) | $ | (332 | ) | $ | (368 | ) | $ | (410 | ) | $ | (450 | ) | $ | (484 | ) | 9.3 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Costs and SG&A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Consolidated Operating Costs & SG&A |
| $ | (369 | ) | $ | (397 | ) | $ | (421 | ) | $ | (444 | ) | $ | (466 | ) | $ | (488 | ) | 5.8 | % |
Include: Management Fee |
| (34 | ) | (37 | ) | (40 | ) | (43 | ) | (45 | ) | (48 | ) | 7.1 | % | ||||||
Exclude: Corporate Overhead |
| 24 |
| 24 |
| 26 |
| 27 |
| 28 |
| 30 |
| 4.4 | % | ||||||
Exclude: Interactive Operating Costs |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 0.4 | % | ||||||
Total Operating Costs and SG&A |
| $ | (377 | ) | $ | (408 | ) | $ | (434 | ) | $ | (458 | ) | $ | (482 | ) | $ | (505 | ) | 6.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Expenses |
| $ | (687 | ) | $ | (740 | ) | $ | (803 | ) | $ | (868 | ) | $ | (931 | ) | $ | (988 | ) | 7.5 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA |
| $ | 438 |
| $ | 481 |
| $ | 523 |
| $ | 555 |
| $ | 578 |
| $ | 595 |
| 6.4 | % |
% Margin |
| 38.9 | % | 39.4 | % | 39.5 | % | 39.0 | % | 38.3 | % | 37.6 | % |
|
| ||||||
% Growth |
| 5.5 | % | 10.0 | % | 8.7 | % | 6.0 | % | 4.3 | % | 2.9 | % |
|
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Depreciation and Amortization |
| (288 | ) | (302 | ) | (267 | ) | (255 | ) | (241 | ) | (237 | ) | (3.8 | )% | ||||||
EBIT |
| $ | 150 |
| $ | 179 |
| $ | 256 |
| $ | 300 |
| $ | 337 |
| $ | 359 |
| 19.1 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Cash Flow Data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
EBITDA |
| $ | 438 |
| $ | 481 |
| $ | 523 |
| $ | 555 |
| $ | 578 |
| $ | 595 |
| 6.4 | % |
Less: Capital Expenditures |
| (211 | ) | (168 | ) | (162 | ) | (158 | ) | (151 | ) | (148 | ) | (6.8 | )% | ||||||
% of Revenue |
| 18.8 | % | 13.7 | % | 12.2 | % | 11.1 | % | 10.0 | % | 9.4 | % |
|
| ||||||
Less: Net Cash Interest Expense |
| (187 | ) | (193 | ) | (186 | ) | (172 | ) | (170 | ) | (149 | ) | (4.4 | )% | ||||||
Plus: Decrese in Working Capital |
| 14 |
| 4 |
| 9 |
| 11 |
| 10 |
| 11 |
| (5.9 | )% | ||||||
Free Cash Flow |
| $ | 54 |
| $ | 125 |
| $ | 184 |
| $ | 235 |
| $ | 268 |
| $ | 309 |
| 41.6 | % |
% Growth |
|
|
| 129.8 | % | 47.8 | % | 27.8 | % | 13.9 | % | 15.2 | % |
|
|
Source: Insight Communications management projections dated 4/28/05 and 6/15/05.
Note: Represents isolated income statement and cash flows of Insight Midwest joint venture.
48
Insight Communications Management Projections – HoldCo Summary
($ in millions)
|
| Year End December 31, |
| ’05 - ’10 |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| 2007E |
| 2008E |
| 2009E |
| 2010E |
| CAGR |
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Total Revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Management Fee |
| 34 |
| 37 |
| 40 |
| 43 |
| 45 |
| 48 |
| 7.1 | % | ||||||
Interactive Revenue |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 3.1 | % | ||||||
Total Revenue |
| $ | 37 |
| $ | 40 |
| $ | 43 |
| $ | 46 |
| $ | 49 |
| $ | 51 |
| 6.8 | % |
% Growth |
| 8.2 | % | 9.3 | % | 7.8 | % | 6.7 | % | 5.6 | % | 4.6 | % |
|
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Costs and Expenses |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Interactive Direct Costs |
| (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | 4.4 | % | ||||||
Interactive Operating Costs |
| (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | 0.4 | % | ||||||
Corporate Overhead |
| (24 | ) | (24 | ) | (26 | ) | (27 | ) | (28 | ) | (30 | ) | 4.4 | % | ||||||
Total Expenses |
| $ | (26 | ) | $ | (26 | ) | $ | (28 | ) | $ | (29 | ) | $ | (30 | ) | $ | (32 | ) | 4.2 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA |
| $ | 11 |
| $ | 14 |
| $ | 16 |
| $ | 17 |
| $ | 18 |
| $ | 19 |
| 12.2 | % |
% Margin |
| 29.3 | % | 34.2 | % | 36.0 | % | 37.2 | % | 37.6 | % | 37.5 | % |
|
| ||||||
% Growth |
| 85.6 | % | 27.7 | % | 13.6 | % | 10.0 | % | 7.0 | % | 4.1 | % |
|
| ||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Less: Depreciation & Amortization |
| (2 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) |
|
| ||||||
EBIT |
| $ | 9 |
| $ | 12 |
| $ | 14 |
| $ | 16 |
| $ | 17 |
| $ | 18 |
| 14.0 | % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
Cash Flow Data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||
EBITDA |
| $ | 11 |
| $ | 14 |
| $ | 16 |
| $ | 17 |
| $ | 18 |
| $ | 19 |
| 12.2 | % |
Less: Capital Expenditures |
| (2 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | NM |
| ||||||
Plus: Decrease in Working Capital |
| (1 | ) | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| (192.7 | )% | ||||||
Less: Cash Interest Expense |
| 0 |
| (21 | ) | (43 | ) | (43 | ) | (43 | ) | (43 | ) | NM |
| ||||||
Less: Cash Taxes |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| NM |
| ||||||
Free Cash Flow |
| $ | 9 |
| $ | (9 | ) | $ | (28 | ) | $ | (27 | ) | $ | (25 | ) | $ | (25 | ) | NM |
|
% Growth |
|
|
| (195.7 | )% | 226.8 | % | (5.2 | )% | (4.5 | )% | (2.9 | )% |
|
|
Source: Insight Communications management projections dated 4/28/05 and 6/15/05.
Note: Represents isolated income statement and cash flows of ICCI HoldCo.
49
DCF – Hold Co.
(US $ in millions)
|
| Fiscal Year Ending December 31, |
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| 2005 |
| 2006 |
| 2007 |
| 2008 |
| 2009 |
| 2010 |
| ||||||
EBIT |
| $ | 9.2 |
| $ | 12.5 |
| $ | 14.3 |
| $ | 15.9 |
| $ | 17.0 |
| $ | 17.7 |
|
Less: Taxes at 41% |
| (3.8 | ) | (5.1 | ) | (5.9 | ) | (6.5 | ) | (7.0 | ) | (7.3 | ) | ||||||
Plus: D&A |
| 1.6 |
| 1.3 |
| 1.3 |
| 1.3 |
| 1.3 |
| 1.4 |
| ||||||
Less: Capex |
| (1.6 | ) | (1.3 | ) | (1.3 | ) | (1.3 | ) | (1.3 | ) | (1.4 | ) | ||||||
Less: NWC Change |
| (0.6 | ) | 0.1 |
| 0.3 |
| 0.3 |
| 0.4 |
| 0.4 |
| ||||||
Unlevered Free Cash Flow |
| $ | 4.9 |
| $ | 7.4 |
| $ | 8.8 |
| $ | 9.7 |
| $ | 10.4 |
| $ | 10.9 |
|
Discount Rate |
| 9.0 | % | |
Discount to |
| 3/31/2005 |
| |
Terminal Value (a) |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
|
|
|
| |
NPV of Holdco Cash Flows |
| $ | 38.9 |
|
(a) Assumes dissolution of partnership in 2011, and consequently no terminal value.
50
NOL Valuation
ASSUMPTIONS:
Existing NOLs |
|
|
| |
Total Amount Outstanding (12/31/04) |
| $ | 651.3 |
|
Income Tax Rate |
| 41.0 | % | |
Assumed Discount Rate |
| 8.0 |
| |
Valuation Date |
| 3/31/2005 |
| |
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding (mm) |
| 63.8 |
| |
SEC 382 NOL Limitation
SEC 382 Limitation? (1=Yes; 0=No) |
| No |
| |
Assumed Purchase Price per Share |
| $ | 10.70 |
|
Market Value of Equity |
| $ | 682.3 |
|
Current Tax-Exempt Rate |
| 4.20 | % | |
Annual NOL Limitation |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
Taxable Income Calculation |
| 2004 |
| 2005 |
| 2006 |
| 2007 |
| 2008 |
| 2009 |
| 2010 |
| 2011 |
| |||||||
Insight Midwest EBT |
|
|
| $ | (48.6 | ) | $ | (26.7 | ) | $ | 56.8 |
| $ | 114.3 |
| $ | 155.9 |
| $ | 198.8 |
| $ | 204.7 |
|
% Growth |
|
|
|
|
| NM |
| NM |
| 101.1 | % | 36.4 | % | 27.5 | % | 3.0 | % | |||||||
ICCI EBT |
|
|
| $ | 21.2 |
| $ | 4.1 |
| $ | (14.9 | ) | $ | (13.9 | ) | $ | (13.9 | ) | $ | (14.5 | ) | $ | (14.5 | ) |
% Growth |
|
|
|
|
| NM |
| (460.7 | )% | (6.7 | )% | 0.5 | % | 4.0 | % | 0.0 | % | |||||||
Dissolution (Proportional) |
|
|
| $ | (3.2 | ) | $ | (9.2 | ) | $ | (13.5 | ) | $ | 11.4 |
| $ | 33.3 |
| $ | 47.8 |
| $ | 49.3 |
|
% Growth |
|
|
|
|
| NM |
| NM |
| (184.3 | )% | 192.8 | % | 43.4 | % | 3.0 | % | |||||||
Proportional EBT |
|
|
| $ | (3.2 | ) | $ | (9.2 | ) | $ | 13.6 |
| $ | 43.3 |
| $ | 64.0 |
| $ | 84.9 |
| $ | 87.9 |
|
|
| Partnership Dissolution |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
Taxable Income Calculation |
| 2012 |
| 2013 |
| 2014 |
| 2015 |
| 2016 |
| 2017 |
| 2018 |
| 2019 |
| ||||||||
Insight Midwest EBT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
% Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
ICCI EBT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
% Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Dissolution (Proportional) |
| $ | 50.7 |
| $ | 52.3 |
| $ | 53.8 |
| $ | 55.4 |
| $ | 57.1 |
| $ | 58.8 |
| $ | 60.6 |
| $ | 62.4 |
|
% Growth |
| 3.0 | % | 3.0 | % | 3.0 | % | 3.0 | % | 3.0 | % | 3.0 | % | 3.0 | % | 3.0 | % | ||||||||
Proportional EBT |
| $ | 50.7 |
| $ | 52.3 |
| $ | 53.8 |
| $ | 55.4 |
| $ | 57.1 |
| $ | 58.8 |
| $ | 60.6 |
| $ | 62.4 |
|
NOL USAGE |
| 2004 |
| 2005 |
| 2006 |
| 2007 |
| 2008 |
| 2009 |
| 2010 |
| 2011 |
| ||||||||
Existing NOLs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
NOL Beginnig Balance |
|
|
| $ | 651.3 |
| $ | 651.3 |
| $ | 651.3 |
| $ | 637.7 |
| $ | 594.5 |
| $ | 530.5 |
| $ | 445.6 |
| |
Addition / (Usage) |
|
|
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| (13.6 | ) | (43.3 | ) | (64.0 | ) | (84.9 | ) | (87.9 | ) | ||||||||
Unused Expired NOLs from Schedule |
|
|
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
NOL Ending Balance |
| $ | 651.3 |
| $ | 651.3 |
| $ | 651.3 |
| $ | 637.7 |
| $ | 594.5 |
| $ | 530.5 |
| $ | 445.6 |
| $ | 357.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
New NOLs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
NOL Beginnig Balance |
|
|
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 3.2 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| |
Addition |
|
|
| 3.2 |
| 9.2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
(Usage) |
|
|
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
Unused Expired NOLs from Schedule |
|
|
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
NOL Ending Balance |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 3.2 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Taxable Income & NOL Usage |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Taxable Income at ICCI |
|
|
| $ | (3.2 | ) | $ | (9.2 | ) | $ | 13.6 |
| $ | 43.3 |
| $ | 64.0 |
| $ | 84.9 |
| $ | 87.9 |
| |
SEC 382 Maximum NOL Usage |
|
|
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||||||||
“Practical” Maximum NOL Usage |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Existing NOLs |
|
|
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 13.6 |
| 43.3 |
| 64.0 |
| 84.9 |
| 87.9 |
| ||||||||
New NOLs |
|
|
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
Sub-Total |
|
|
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 13.6 |
| $ | 43.3 |
| $ | 64.0 |
| $ | 84.9 |
| $ | 87.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Tax Benefit of NOLs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
NOL Usage |
|
|
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 13.6 |
| $ | 43.3 |
| $ | 64.0 |
| $ | 84.9 |
| $ | 87.9 |
| |
Tax Rate |
|
|
| 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | ||||||||
Annual Tax Benefit of NOLs |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 5.6 |
| $ | 17.7 |
| $ | 26.2 |
| $ | 34.8 |
| $ | 36.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Discount Dates |
| 3/31/2005 |
| 8/15/2005 |
| 6/30/2006 |
| 6/30/2007 |
| 6/30/2008 |
| 6/30/2009 |
| 6/30/2010 |
| 6/30/2011 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NOL USAGE |
| 2012 |
| 2013 |
| 2014 |
| 2015 |
| 2016 |
| 2017 |
| 2018 |
| 2019 |
| ||||||||
Existing NOLs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
NOL Beginnig Balance |
| $ | 357.7 |
| $ | 307.0 |
| $ | 254.7 |
| $ | 200.9 |
| $ | 145.4 |
| $ | 88.3 |
| $ | 29.5 |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
Addition / (Usage) |
| (50.7 | ) | (52.3 | ) | (53.8 | ) | (55.4 | ) | (57.1 | ) | (58.8 | ) | (29.5 | ) | 0.0 |
| ||||||||
Unused Expired NOLs from Schedule |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
NOL Ending Balance |
| $ | 307.0 |
| $ | 254.7 |
| $ | 200.9 |
| $ | 145.4 |
| $ | 88.3 |
| $ | 29.5 |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
New NOLs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
NOL Beginnig Balance |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
Addition |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
(Usage) |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| (12.4 | ) | 0.0 |
| ||||||||
Unused Expired NOLs from Schedule |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
NOL Ending Balance |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 12.4 |
| $ | 0.0 |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Taxable Income & NOL Usage |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Taxable Income at ICCI |
| $ | 50.7 |
| $ | 52.3 |
| $ | 53.8 |
| $ | 55.4 |
| $ | 57.1 |
| $ | 58.8 |
| $ | 60.6 |
| $ | 62.4 |
|
SEC 382 Maximum NOL Usage |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| ||||||||
“Practical” Maximum NOL Usage |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Existing NOLs |
| 50.7 |
| 52.3 |
| 53.8 |
| 55.4 |
| 57.1 |
| 58.8 |
| 29.5 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
New NOLs |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0.0 |
| 12.4 |
| 0.0 |
| ||||||||
Sub-Total |
| $ | 50.7 |
| $ | 52.3 |
| $ | 53.8 |
| $ | 55.4 |
| $ | 57.1 |
| $ | 58.8 |
| $ | 41.9 |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Tax Benefit of NOLs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
NOL Usage |
| $ | 50.7 |
| $ | 52.3 |
| $ | 53.8 |
| $ | 55.4 |
| $ | 57.1 |
| $ | 58.8 |
| $ | 41.9 |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
Tax Rate |
| 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | 41.0 | % | ||||||||
Annual Tax Benefit of NOLs |
| $ | 20.8 |
| $ | 21.4 |
| $ | 22.1 |
| $ | 22.7 |
| $ | 23.4 |
| $ | 24.1 |
| $ | 17.2 |
| $ | 0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Discount Dates |
| 6/30/2012 |
| 6/30/2013 |
| 6/30/2014 |
| 6/30/2015 |
| 6/30/2016 |
| 6/30/2017 |
| 6/30/2018 |
| 6/30/2019 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
NPV of NOL Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
Value per Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NPV of NOL Tax Benefit |
| $ | 152.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value per Share |
| $ | 2.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
51
Peer Group Trading Analysis (5/10/05)
($ in millions, except per share and per sub data)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cable |
|
|
|
|
| EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
|
|
| Equity |
| Firm |
| Firm |
| Cable FV / EBITDA |
| Growth |
| Cable FV / |
| EV / FCF |
| |||||||||
|
| Stock Price |
| Value |
| Value |
| Value |
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| ’04-’07 |
| Latest Subs |
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| |||||
Cablevision Systems |
| $ | 27.05 |
| $ | 7,868 |
| $ | 16,485 |
| $ | 11,446 |
| 8.1 | x | 7.2 | x | 12.2 | % | $ | 3,835 |
| 45.5 | x | 16.1 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charter Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
with debt at face value |
| 1.14 |
| 739 |
| 19,535 |
| 19,471 |
| 9.7 |
| 9.3 |
| 5.1 |
| 3,253 |
| NM |
| NM |
| |||||
with debt at market price |
| 1.14 |
| 739 |
| 17,793 |
| 17,729 |
| 8.8 |
| 8.5 |
| 5.1 |
| 2,962 |
| NM |
| NM |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Comcast |
| 31.87 |
| 70,939 |
| 93,758 |
| 76,769 |
| 9.1 |
| 8.1 |
| 11.5 |
| 3,567 |
| 24.9 |
| 20.3 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Insight Communications (a) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
at current market price (5/10/05) |
| 11.18 |
| 677 |
| 2,090 |
| 2,090 |
| 9.0 |
| 8.2 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,288 |
| NM |
| 18.0 |
| |||||
at deal price |
| 10.70 |
| 647 |
| 2,060 |
| 2,060 |
| 8.8 |
| 8.1 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,240 |
| NM |
| 17.2 |
| |||||
at market prices prior to deal annoucement |
| 9.68 |
| 582 |
| 1,995 |
| 1,995 |
| 8.6 |
| 7.8 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,138 |
| NM |
| 15.5 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Mediacom Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
at current market price (5/10/05) |
| 5.96 |
| 702 |
| 3,722 |
| 3,722 |
| 8.8 |
| 8.3 |
| 5.2 |
| 2,547 |
| 41.1 |
| 11.3 |
| |||||
at market prices prior deal annoucement |
| 5.66 |
| 667 |
| 3,686 |
| 3,686 |
| 8.7 |
| 8.2 |
| 5.2 |
| 2,523 |
| 39.0 |
| 10.7 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Maximum |
| 9.1 | x | 8.5 | x | 12.2 | x | $ | 3,835 |
| 45.5 | x | 20.3 | x | ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| 8.8 |
| 8.1 |
| 8.6 |
| 3,240 |
| 37.2 |
| 16.4 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median |
| 8.8 |
| 8.2 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,288 |
| 41.1 |
| 17.1 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Minimum |
| 8.1 |
| 7.2 |
| 5.1 |
| 2,547 |
| 24.9 |
| 11.3 |
|
CREDIT STATISTICS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
| Net |
| Total |
| Cable |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Debt / |
| Debt / |
| Cable Debt / |
| Net Debt / |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| LTM EBITDA |
| LTM Cable EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Cablevision Systems |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6.7 | x | 6.1 | x | 5.0 | x | 4.4 | x |
|
|
|
|
Charter Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9.8 |
| 9.7 |
| 9.8 |
| 9.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Comcast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Insight Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Mediacom Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7.4 |
| 7.4 |
| 7.4 |
| 7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Maximum |
| 9.8 | x | 9.7 | x | 9.8 | x | 9.7 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| 6.8 |
| 6.5 |
| 6.4 |
| 6.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median |
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Minimum |
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Valuation statistics based on current market prices for ICCI and MCCC, and using debt at market prices for CHTR. Statistics exclude “NM” values. Credit statistics show CHTR debt at book value.
Total Insight cable debt excludes HoldCo note.
(a) Statistics shown based on proportional valuation methodology.
Current stock prices as of 5/10/05.
52
Peer Group Trading Analysis (6/17/05)
($ in millions, except per share and per sub data)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cable |
|
|
|
|
| EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
|
|
| Equity |
| Firm |
| Firm |
| Cable FV / EBITDA |
| Growth |
| Cable FV / |
| EV / FCF |
| |||||||||
|
| Stock Price |
| Value |
| Value |
| Value |
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| ’04-’07 |
| Latest Subs |
| 2005E |
| 2006E |
| |||||
Cablevision Systems |
| $ | 26.87 |
| $ | 7,815 |
| $ | 16,491 |
| $ | 11,452 |
| 8.1 | x | 7.2 | x | 12.2 | % | $ | 3,837 |
| 45.2 | x | 16.0 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charter Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
with debt at face value |
| 1.07 |
| 693 |
| 19,489 |
| 19,425 |
| 9.7 |
| 9.3 |
| 5.1 |
| 3,246 |
| NM |
| NM |
| |||||
with debt at market price |
| 1.07 |
| 693 |
| 17,189 |
| 17,125 |
| 8.5 |
| 8.2 |
| 5.1 |
| 2,861 |
| NM |
| NM |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Comcast |
| 31.22 |
| 69,455 |
| 92,274 |
| 75,203 |
| 8.9 |
| 8.0 |
| 11.5 |
| 3,494 |
| 24.4 |
| 19.8 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Insight Communications (a) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
at current market price (6/17/05) |
| 11.42 |
| 693 |
| 2,106 |
| 2,106 |
| 9.2 |
| 8.3 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,312 |
| NM |
| 18.5 |
| |||||
at deal price |
| 10.70 |
| 647 |
| 2,060 |
| 2,060 |
| 9.0 |
| 8.1 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,240 |
| NM |
| 17.3 |
| |||||
at market prices prior to deal annoucement |
| 9.68 |
| 582 |
| 1,995 |
| 1,995 |
| 8.7 |
| 7.8 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,138 |
| NM |
| 15.5 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Mediacom Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
at current market price (6/17/05) |
| 6.69 |
| 788 |
| 3,808 |
| 3,808 |
| 9.0 |
| 8.5 |
| 5.2 |
| 2,606 |
| 46.1 |
| 12.6 |
| |||||
at market prices prior deal annoucement |
| 5.66 |
| 667 |
| 3,686 |
| 3,686 |
| 8.7 |
| 8.2 |
| 5.2 |
| 2,523 |
| 39.0 |
| 10.7 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Maximum |
| 9.2 | x | 8.5 | x | 12.2 | x | $ | 3,837 |
| 46.1 | x | 19.8 | x | ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| 8.7 |
| 8.0 |
| 8.6 |
| 3,222 |
| 38.6 |
| 16.7 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median |
| 8.9 |
| 8.2 |
| 9.2 |
| 3,312 |
| 45.2 |
| 17.2 |
| |||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Minimum |
| 8.1 |
| 7.2 |
| 5.1 |
| 2,606 |
| 24.4 |
| 12.6 |
|
CREDIT STATISTICS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
| Net |
| Total |
| Cable |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Debt / |
| Debt / |
| Cable Debt / |
| Net Debt / |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| LTM EBITDA |
| LTM Cable EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
| ||||
Cablevision Systems |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6.6 | x | 6.1 | x | 5.0 | x | 4.4 | x |
|
|
|
|
Charter Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9.8 |
| 9.7 |
| 9.8 |
| 9.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Comcast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Insight Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Mediacom Communications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7.4 |
| 7.4 |
| 7.4 |
| 7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Maximum |
| 9.8 | x | 9.7 | x | 9.8 | x | 9.7 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
| 6.8 |
| 6.5 |
| 6.4 |
| 6.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median |
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
| 7.2 |
| 6.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Minimum |
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
| 2.8 |
| 2.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Valuation statistics based on current market prices for ICCI and MCCC, and using debt at market prices for CHTR. Statistics exclude “NM” values. Credit statistics show CHTR debt at book value.
Total Insight cable debt excludes HoldCo note.
(a) Statistics shown based on proportional valuation methodology.
Current stock prices as of 6/17/05.
53
Cable Precedent Transactions
(Dollars in Millions, Subscribers in Thousands)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Adjusted |
|
|
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Core Cable |
| Forward |
| ||
Date of |
| Acquiring |
| Seller/Acquired |
| Firm |
| Total |
| Consideration |
| EBITDA |
| ||
Announcement |
| Company |
| Company |
| Value |
| Subs |
| per Subscriber |
| Multiple |
| ||
Apr-05 |
| Time Warner and Comcast |
| Adelphia |
| $ | 18,100 |
| 5,300 |
| $ | 3,415 |
| 13.9 | x |
Oct-04 |
| Cox Enterprises |
| Cox Communications Inc |
| 26,195 |
| 6,263 |
| 4,183 |
| 9.9 |
| ||
Sep-03 |
| Atlantic Broadband LLC |
| Charter Communications |
| 765 |
| 235 |
| 3,255 |
| 10.6 |
| ||
Jul-03 |
| Susquehanna Communications |
| RCN Corp |
| 120 |
| 30 |
| 4,027 |
| 9.4 |
| ||
Feb-03 |
| Cequel III |
| Shaw Communications |
| 85 |
| 27 |
| 3,148 |
| 11.9 |
| ||
Feb-03 |
| Advance / Newhouse |
| Shaw Communications |
| 112 |
| 44 |
| 2,545 |
| 10.1 |
| ||
Dec-02 |
| G-Force LLC |
| Northland Cable |
| 46 |
| 17 |
| 2,756 |
| 11.6 |
| ||
Aug-02 |
| Patriot Media (Spectrum and Steve Simmons) |
| RCN Corp |
| 245 |
| 80 |
| 3,063 |
| 11.3 |
| ||
Apr-02 |
| Bresnan Communications |
| Comcast / AT&T Broadban |
| 675 |
| 317 |
| 2,129 |
| 10.1 |
| ||
Dec-01 |
| Comcast Corp |
| AT&T Broadband |
| 56,560 |
| 13,357 |
| 4,235 |
| 22.9 |
| ||
May-01 |
| Comcast |
| AT&T Baltimore Cable |
| 500 |
| 110 |
| 4,545 |
| NA |
| ||
Apr-01 |
| Comcast |
| AT&T |
| 2,696 |
| 595 |
| 4,531 |
| NA |
| ||
Apr-01 |
| Adelphia Communications |
| AT&T “PONY” |
| 300 |
| 115 |
| 2,609 |
| NA |
| ||
Feb-01 |
| Mediacom |
| AT&T Broadband |
| 2,215 |
| 840 |
| 2,637 |
| 11.8 |
| ||
Jun-00 |
| Adelphia Communications |
| GS Communications |
| 826 |
| 155 |
| 5,329 |
| 27.5 |
| ||
Apr-00 |
| Cablevision |
| AT&T Westchester Cable |
| 628 |
| 126 |
| 5,000 |
| NA |
| ||
Apr-00 |
| AT&T Broadband |
| Cablevision Boston Cable |
| 1,790 |
| 358 |
| 5,001 |
| NA |
| ||
Mar-00 |
| Sandler Capital |
| James Cable |
| 160 |
| 72 |
| 2,226 |
| 11.6 |
| ||
Mar-00 |
| Charter Communications |
| Cablevision of Michigan |
| 173 |
| 49 |
| 3,557 |
| 18.7 |
| ||
May-99 |
| Cox Communications Inc |
| TCA Cable TV Inc |
| 3,634 |
| 883 |
| 4,115 |
| 19.6 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| High |
|
|
| $ | 5,329 |
| 27.5 | x | |
|
|
|
|
|
| Median |
|
|
| 3,486 |
| 11.6 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean |
|
|
| 3,615 |
| 14.1 |
| ||
|
|
|
|
|
| Low |
|
|
| 2,129 |
| 9.4 |
| ||
54
Minority Squeeze Outs
• Summary of cash deals represents deals with transaction value at announcement above $250 mm since January 1, 2000
• Summaries of both pure stock and stock and cash deals represent deals with transaction value at announcement above $500 mm since January 1, 2000.
All Cash Deals
Date |
| Date |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Transaction Value ($ mm) (a) |
| Price |
| Initial Premium (b) |
| Final Premium (b) |
| |||||||||||
Announced |
| Completed |
| Target |
| Acquiror |
| % Sought |
| at Announcement |
| at Execution |
| Initial |
| Final |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day |
| |||
21-Feb-05 |
| Not Closed |
| Eon Labs |
| Novartis |
| 34.6 | % | $ | 989 |
| N/A |
| $ | 31.00 |
| — |
| 11.0 | % | 18.2 | % | — |
| — |
| |
02-Aug-04 |
| 02-Dec-04 |
| Cox Communications |
| Cox Enterprises |
| 38.0 |
| 7,857 |
| 8,532 |
| 32.00 |
| $ | 34.75 |
| 16.0 |
| 13.6 |
| 26.0 | % | 23.4 | % | ||
22-Jul-04 |
| 23-Dec-04 |
| AMC Entertainment |
| Investor Group |
| 50.1 |
| 834 |
| 834 |
| 19.50 |
| 19.50 |
| 13.6 |
| 28.5 |
| 13.6 |
| 28.5 |
| |||
19-Feb-02 |
| 11-Apr-02 |
| Travelocity.com Inc |
| Sabre Holdings Corp. |
| 30.0 |
| 403 |
| 491 |
| 23.00 |
| 28.00 |
| 19.8 |
| 1.0 |
| 45.8 |
| 23.0 |
| |||
21-Sep-01 |
| 08-Nov-01 |
| Prodigy Communications Corp. |
| SBC Communications |
| 58.3 |
| 409 |
| 496 |
| 5.45 |
| 6.60 |
| 54.0 |
| 2.3 |
| 86.4 |
| 23.9 |
| |||
04-Jun-01 |
| 12-Dec-01 |
| Liberty Financial Companies |
| Liberty Mutual Insurance Company |
| 29.5 |
| 483 |
| 487 |
| 33.44 |
| 33.70 |
| (1.1 | ) | (8.0 | ) | (0.3 | ) | (7.3 | ) | |||
25-Jan-01 |
| 20-Jun-01 |
| Sodexho Marriott Services |
| Sodexho Alliance |
| 52.0 |
| 989 |
| 1,173 |
| 27.00 |
| 32.00 |
| 8.5 |
| 23.0 |
| 28.6 |
| 45.8 |
| |||
27-Oct-00 |
| 16-Mar-01 |
| Azurix Corp. |
| Enron Corp. |
| 33.0 |
| 276 |
| 330 |
| 7.00 |
| 8.38 |
| 96.5 |
| 73.5 |
| 135.1 |
| 107.6 |
| |||
15-Aug-00 |
| 01-Mar-01 |
| Avis Group Holdings |
| Cendant |
| 82.0 |
| 823 |
| 937 |
| 29.00 |
| 33.00 |
| 13.7 |
| 29.4 |
| 29.4 |
| 47.3 |
| |||
24-Jul-00 |
| 11-Jan-01 |
| Phoenix Investment Partners |
| Phoenix Home Life Mutual |
| 40.5 |
| 344 |
| 434 |
| 12.50 |
| 15.75 |
| 15.6 |
| 19.8 |
| 45.7 |
| 50.9 |
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean: |
| 24.8 | % | 20.1 | % | 45.6 | % | 38.1 | % | |||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median: |
| 14.7 |
| 19.0 |
| 29.4 |
| 28.5 |
| |||
All Stock Deals
Date |
| Date |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Transaction Value ($ mm) (a) |
| Exchange Ratio |
| Initial Premium (d) |
| Final Premium (d) |
| ||||||||||||||||
Announced |
| Completed |
| Target |
| Acquiror |
| % Sought |
| at Announcement |
| at Execution (c) |
| Initial |
| Final |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day |
| ||||||||
10-Jan-05 |
| 21-Mar-05 |
| Fox Entertainment Group |
| News Corporation |
| 17.9 | % | $ | 6,055 |
| $ | 6,337 |
| 1.900 | x | 2.040 | x | 10.9 | % | 14.1 | % | 19.1 | % | 22.5 | % | ||||||
03-Jun-02 |
| 23-Jun-03 |
| Hotels.com |
| InterActiveCorp |
| 34.0 |
| 1,012 |
| 1,185 |
| 1.806 |
| 2.400 |
| 7.5 |
| (5.3 | ) | 42.8 |
| 25.8 |
| ||||||||
03-Jun-02 |
| 08-Aug-03 |
| Expedia Inc |
| InterActiveCorp |
| 46.0 |
| 2,642 |
| 3,531 |
| 1.348 |
| 1.939 |
| 7.5 |
| 1.3 |
| 54.6 |
| 45.7 |
| ||||||||
03-Jun-02 |
| 17-Jan-03 |
| Ticketmaster |
| USA Interactive |
| 34.0 |
| 1,116 |
| 736 |
| 0.807 |
| 0.935 |
| 7.5 |
| 3.6 |
| 24.6 |
| 20.1 |
| ||||||||
15-Feb-02 |
| 03-Jun-02 |
| NRG Energy |
| Xcel Energy |
| 25.7 |
| 587 |
| 657 |
| 0.485 |
| 0.500 |
| 15.0 |
| 0.9 |
| 18.7 |
| 4.1 |
| ||||||||
04-Feb-02 |
| 21-Mar-02 |
| Intimate Brands |
| The Limited |
| 16.3 |
| 1,657 |
| 1,760 |
| 1.046 |
| 1.100 |
| 6.1 |
| 5.8 |
| 11.6 |
| 11.3 |
| ||||||||
08-Oct-01 |
| 15-Feb-02 |
| Telecorp PCS |
| AT&T Wireless |
| 77.0 |
| 2,400 |
| 2,400 |
| 0.900 |
| 0.900 |
| 44.5 |
| 12.0 |
| 44.5 |
| 12.0 |
| ||||||||
04-Oct-01 |
| 18-Dec-01 |
| TyCom |
| Tyco International |
| 11.0 |
| 784 |
| 864 |
| 0.300 |
| 0.313 |
| 48.0 |
| 42.0 |
| 54.7 |
| 48.4 |
| ||||||||
07-Sep-00 |
| 25-Apr-01 |
| Delhaize America |
| Delhaize Group |
| 55.0 |
| 1,887 |
| 1,874 |
| 0.350 |
| 0.400 |
| 17.2 |
| 31.5 |
| 33.9 |
| 50.3 |
| ||||||||
15-Aug-00 |
| 21-Feb-01 |
| Infinity Broadcasting |
| Viacom |
| 35.7 |
| 15,927 |
| 13,083 |
| 0.564 |
| 0.592 |
| 13.6 |
| 10.1 |
| 19.2 |
| 15.5 |
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean: |
| 17.8 | % | 11.6 | % | 32.4 | % | 25.6 | % | ||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median: |
| 12.3 |
| 8.0 |
| 29.3 |
| 21.3 |
| ||||||||
Cash & Stock Deals
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Transaction Value ($mm) (a) |
|
|
| Initial Premium (c) |
| Final Premium (c) |
| ||||||||||||
Date Announced |
| Date Completed |
| Target |
| Acquiror |
| % Sought |
| at Announcement |
| at Execution |
| Initial Price Final Price |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day |
| 1 - Day |
| 30 - Day |
| ||||||
18-Jan-05 |
| Not Closed |
| UnitedGlobalCom (e) |
| Liberty Media International |
| 46.2 | % | $ | 4,061 |
| N/A |
| $ | 9.45 |
| — |
| (2.0 | )% | 2.5 | % | — |
| — |
| ||
30-Aug-00 |
| 02-Jan-01 |
| AXA Financial |
| AXA Group |
| 39.7 |
| 9,384 |
| $ | 9,580 |
| 53.51 |
| $ | 54.63 |
| 2.4 |
| 21.8 |
| 4.5 | % | 24.4 | % | ||
14-Aug-00 |
| 31-Jul-01 |
| BHC Communications (f) |
| News Corporation |
| 20.0 |
| 743 |
| 743 |
| 165.00 |
| 165.00 |
| 16.4 |
| 11.1 |
| 16.4 |
| 11.1 |
| ||||
14-Aug-00 |
| 31-Jul-01 |
| United Television (f) |
| News Corporation |
| 43.0 |
| 616 |
| 616 |
| 150.00 |
| 150.00 |
| 10.3 |
| 13.5 |
| 10.3 |
| 13.5 |
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mean: |
| 6.8 | % | 12.2 | % | 10.4 | % | 16.3 | % | ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Median: |
| 6.3 |
| 12.3 |
| 10.3 |
| 13.5 |
| ||||
(a) Represents equity value of the minority shareholders’ stake, which the acquiror proposed to acquire in the transaction.
(b) One-day premium measured relative to target’s closing stock price on last trading day prior to annoucement date; 30-day premium measured relative to target’s average closing stock price during the 30-day trading period prior to announcement date. (c) Based on shares held by minority stakeholders at offer price, calculated as product of final exchange ratio and acquiror’s stock price as of date of final bump or announcement date (if no bump took place).
(d) One-day premium measured relative to market exchange ratio on last trading day prior to annoucement date; 30-day premium measured relative to average market exchange ratio during the 30-day trading period prior to announcement date. (e) Under terms of the agreement, up to 20% of shareholders can opt for an all cash payment and remaining 80% will receive an all stock exchange.
(f) BHC and UTV transactions relate to News Corp’s acquisition of Chris Craft Industries. Chris Craft owned 80% of BHC’s common stock, and BHC owned 57% of United TV’s common stock.
55
Cable Sector Share Price Performance
• Since our last meeting with Morgan Stanley and Carlyle on May 11, stock prices for cable providers have fallen by an average of 1.6%
• Over the same time period, the S&P 500 has gained 4.3%
[CHART]
56
ICCI and Midwest Bond Trading Levels
• Bond levels have remained relatively stable since 05/11/05 with no noticeable reaction to the recent S&P downgrades to Insight Communications and Insight Midwest (06/01/05)
[CHART]
57
Research Analyst DCF valuation Versus Trading Value Prior to Offer
|
|
|
| Average |
| DCF Premium |
| ||
|
| Trading |
| Research Analyst |
| / (Discount) |
| ||
Company |
| Price (a) |
| DCF Price |
| to Trading Price |
| ||
Cablevision Systems |
| $ | 30.26 |
| $ | 34.39 |
| 13.7 | % |
Charter Communications |
| 1.85 |
| 2.85 |
| 54.0 | % | ||
Comcast |
| 32.07 |
| 33.20 |
| 3.5 | % | ||
Insight Communications |
| 9.60 |
| 10.08 |
| 5.0 | % | ||
Mediacom Communications |
| 5.50 |
| 6.08 |
| 10.5 | % | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
|
| Mean (with Charter) |
|
|
| 17.3 | % | ||
|
| Median (with Charter) |
|
|
| 10.5 | % | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ||
|
| Mean (without Charter) |
|
|
| 8.2 | % | ||
|
| Median (without Charter) |
|
|
| 7.7 | % | ||
Note: Assumes Comcast DCF price per share same for CMCSA and CMCSK.
(a) Represents average price as of report date.
58
Disclaimer
Any terms set forth herein are intended for discussion purposes only and are subject to the final terms as set forth in separate definitive written agreements.
Prior to entering into any transaction contemplated hereby (a “Transaction”) you should determine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks), as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such Transaction. In this regard, by accepting this presentation, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any Transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any Transaction) and our disclaimer as to these matters.
We are required to obtain, verify and record certain information that identifies each entity that enters into a formal business relationship with us. We will ask for your complete name, street address, and taxpayer ID number. We may also request corporate formation documents, or other forms of identification, to verify information provided.
Any prices or levels contained herein are preliminary and indicative only and do not represent bids or offers. These indications are provided solely for your information and consideration, are subject to change at any time without notice and are not intended as a solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any instrument. The information contained in this presentation may include results of analyses from a quantitative model which represent potential future events that may or may not be realized, and is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any product. Any estimates included herein constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without any notice. We and/or our affiliates may make a market in these instruments for our customers and for our own account. Accordingly, we may have a position in any such instrument at any time.
Although this material may contain publicly available information about Smith Barney equity research or Citigroup corporate bond research, Citigroup policies prohibit analysts from participating in any efforts to solicit investment banking business; accordingly, research analysts may not have any communications with companies for the purpose of soliciting investment banking business. Moreover, Citigroup policy (i) prohibits research analysts from participating in road show meetings; (ii) prohibits investment banking personnel from having any input into company-specific research coverage decisions and from directing research analysts to engage in marketing or selling efforts to investors with respect to an investment banking transaction; (iii) prohibits employees from offering, directly or indirectly, a favorable or negative research opinion or offering to change an opinion as consideration or inducement for the receipt of business or for compensation; and (iv) prohibits analysts from being compensated for specific recommendations or views contained in research reports. So as to reduce the potential for conflicts of interest, as well as to reduce any appearance of conflicts of interest, Citigroup has enacted policies and procedures designed to limit communications between its investment banking and research personnel to specifically prescribed circumstances.
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59