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Heightened Competition Increases Uncertainty of Illumina's Growth Prospects
Oxford Nanopore Life Technologies
[o] On February 17, 2012, Oxford Nanopore unveiled high performance electronic sequencing devices GridION and
MinION
[o] MinION System, a disposable DNA sequencing device the size of a USB memory stick, is expected to price at
less than $900 per unit and is capable of sequencing DNA directly from blood with throughput of 10's of
Gb per 24 hours
[o] Analysts believe Oxford Nanopore's new devices could have a disruptive effect on the DNA sequencing
market and may dampen future growth potential for Illumina
[o] On January 10, 2012, Life Technologies announced it had begun taking orders for its new $149,000 benchtop
Ion Proton Sequencer that is designed to sequence the entire human genome in a day for $1,000
[o] Analysts believe Ion Proton will make Life Technologies newly competitive in the highend sequencing
market (currently dominated by Illumina) and also may improve Life Technologies' offerings to small
research labs and clinical settings
"For both LIFE and ILMN this will lead to questions on the future growth potential (especially in 2013 and
beyond) for their sequencing franchises and we are seeing that in the pressure that both stocks are under
today. While the Roche takeout attempt has provided some support for ILMN shares, much of the multiple
expansion in LIFE shares in 2012 has been driven by excitement for their PGM/Ion Proton sequencing technology.
Today's presentation from ONT could dampen much of that enthusiasm for LIFE."
- Credit Suisse, February 17, 2012
"Oxford Nanopore Exceeds Expectations. In what has been an otherwise quiet AGBT, privately held Oxford
Nanopore presented additional details on the company's sequencing pipeline. While it is not a surprise that
the company is planning to launch a sequencer in 2H2012, we believe newly revealed plans for a "thumb-drive"
like sequencer, the initial pricing plans, and initial specs exceeded expectations. While we will present more
details in our wrap up note, some highlights include up to 40K bp reads, an error rate of only 4%, and pricing
that is well below the competition (including an option for virtually no capital cost)."
- Cowen, February 17, 2012
"The data was well above expectations in almost every way: throughput, read length, ease of use, level of
sample prep, accuracy, run time and costs... Although we need to see how the technology behaves in the hands
of scientists, if it works as promised and ONT can execute on its commercialization plan, then this could have
a disruptive effect on the DNA sequencing market and is a negative for sequencing companies like LIFE, ILMN
and PACB, as well as array providers like AFFX."
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch, February 17, 2012
"Today, Life Technologies announced the release of a new DNA sequencer, the Ion Proton. Priced at $149k, this
is a natural product line extension over the PGM (priced at $49,000) and shipments will begin in mid-2012,
with early access customers receiving the system in early 2Q12. The first chip (Proton 1 - for exome
sequencing, $699) will be available in mid-2012 and the second (Proton II - for whole human genome sequencing,
$1,000) will be available about 6 months later (YE2012)."
"The introduction of the Ion Proton will crowd the high-end of the DNA sequencing market with its unique
capabilities - namely speed. We also note the quality of early access customers referenced in the press
release (Nusbaum at Broad, Gibbs at Baylor, Lifton at Yale), all of whom are leading minds in the field and
whose opinions will carry weight among customers. We therefore view this news as a negative for competing
high-end platforms (Illumina HiSeq, Life Technologies SOLiD, Pacific Biosciences RS) given the constrained
funding environment."
- Goldman Sachs, January 10, 2012
"Ion Proton specs imply a game changer. In addition to per genome and system cost, the Ion Proton is purported
to bring industry leading speed without the need for an outsized IT investment. Even without details on
accuracy, systems specs imply serious competition for other NGS providers."
"Based on the technology underpinning the Ion Torrent, the Ion Proton will be able to sequence a genome in one
day for $1,000. Life will strategically target Illumina's core HiSeq markets: genomic centers, mid size labs,
cores and centralized testing labs."
- Oppenheimer, January 10, 2012
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