Exposures reported under Real Estate Activities NACE which are recourse CRE financing have an inherently lower risk profile as they typically benefit from recourse to creditworthy entities or individuals, in addition to mortgage collateral, with internal ratings based on the financial strength of the guaranteeing entities / individuals. Exposures range from secured recourse lending to property companies, secured recourse lending to Wealth Management clients, as well as private and corporate clients for business or commercial properties.
Non-recourse financings are subject to increased risk since sources of repayment are typically limited to the cash flows generated by the financed property and the ability to refinance may be constrained by the underlying property value and income stream generated by such property at the time of refinancing. Non-recourse exposures reported under Real Estate Activities (NACE) was € 25.8 billion and € 24.8 billion as of June 30, 2023, and December 31, 2022, respectively.
Based on Deutsche Bank’s definition of non-recourse CRE loans, the total non-recourse portfolio as of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively, amounted to € 40.1 billion and € 38.9 billion, respectively, which included exposures not reported under the Real Estate Activities (NACE). These non-recourse portfolios are primarily in the core CRE business units of the Investment Bank and Corporate Bank, with additional smaller portfolios added across other business units.
Amidst interest rate hikes commencing in 2022 and real estate market stresses increasing, the Group has been proactively working with borrowers to address upcoming maturities in the non-recourse portfolio. One of the key mitigants to refinancing risks remains that Deutsche Bank is primarily lending to strong institutional sponsors with significant equity invested in the financed properties.
For the three and six months ended June 30, 2023, and June 30, 2022, the total provision for credit losses for the total non-recourse CRE financing portfolio was € 109 million (2022: € 20 million) and € 143 million (2022: € 31 million), respectively. As of June 30, 2023, 17 % and 5 % of the exposure were in Stage 2 and Stage 3, and 14 %and 4 % as of December 31, 2022, respectively.
To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of potential downside risks, Deutsche Bank has run a severe stress test on a subset of the non-recourse financing portfolio deemed higher risk, which includes all non-recourse loans except for sub-portfolios subject to different risk drivers such as data centers and municipal social housing. As of June 30, 2023, the stress-tested non-recourse portfolio amounted to € 32.9 billion of the € 40.1 billion non-recourse portfolio, based on Deutsche Bank’s definition.
This portfolio is diversified by property type, with the largest concentration of 41 % in Office space, while Hospitality and Retail account for 11 % and 9 %, respectively as of June 30, 2023 and 41 %, 11 % and 9 % as of December 31, 2022. Weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) is around 63 % in the Investment Bank, 52 % in the Corporate Bank, and 58 % in other business units as of June 30, 2023 and 62 %, 53 % and 56 % as of December 31, 2022. From a regional perspective, 55 % of the portfolio is in the US, 37 % in Europe, and 8 % in the APAC region as of June 30, 2023 and 55 %, 39 % and 7 % as of December 31, 2022, respectively, with loan originations primarily focused on larger, institutional quality assets in more liquid primary markets.
As of June 30, 2023, the Group considered the impact of its severe stress scenario on higher-risk non-recourse CRE loans focused on property values. The stress scenario applied additional haircuts ranging from 10 %-25 % on top of the observed market index decline for each property type assuming a liquidation scenario. Based on these assumptions, such a severe stress could result in approximately € 800 million of additional credit losses spread over multiple years, which would equate to 16bps of the total loan book. The likelihood and magnitude of occurrence will depend on the developments of the CRE markets, particularly in the US, and depend on the exposure specific fundamentals which allow a borrower to refinance. It is important to emphasize that this stress scenario is only an estimation and does not assume additional sponsor support, which could significantly reduce the actual expected credit losses.
Residential Real Estate
The Group’s Residential Real Estate portfolio consists of mainly private client mortgage loans which are regularly repaid and fully recourse. The majority of these loans are in Germany where mortgage loans have a long-fixed period. Current unemployment rates in Germany, Italy and Spain are stable so there is no major increase in risk related to private clients.
In instances where Deutsche Bank has identified counterparties where credit quality has or is expected to deteriorate to the point where they present a heightened risk of default / loss, the respective counterparty is placed on the watchlist, and the counterparty is generally transferred to Stage 2. Deutsche Bank aims to identify those counterparties well in advance of payment issues materializing and continues to refine its early warning capabilities to support the identification of vulnerable clients or portfolios.