Lehman Brothers 2008 Energy/Power Conference New York, NY September 4, 2008 Matthew Hilzinger Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Exhibit 99.2 Sustainable Value |
2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements include those discussed herein as well as those discussed in (1) Exelon’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K in (a) ITEM 1A. Risk Factors, (b) ITEM 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and (c) ITEM 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data: Note 19; (2) Exelon’s Second Quarter 2008 Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q in (a) Part II, Other Information, ITEM 1A. Risk Factors and (b) Part I, Financial Information, ITEM 1. Financial Statements: Note 12; and (3) other factors discussed in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission by Exelon Corporation, Exelon Generation Company, LLC, Commonwealth Edison Company, and PECO Energy Company (Companies). Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this presentation. None of the Companies undertakes any obligation to publicly release any revision to its forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. This presentation includes references to adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings that exclude the impact of certain factors. We believe that these adjusted operating earnings are representative of the underlying operational results of the Companies. Please refer to the appendix to this presentation for a reconciliation of adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings to GAAP earnings. |
3 Key Messages • Tightening our 2008 operating earnings guidance range to $4.15 - $4.30/share – We expect third quarter 2008 results to be lower-middle to middle of the suggested contribution range (26-29%) • Announcing $1.5 billion share repurchase as part of 2008 Value Return Plan • Largely hedged against market volatility in the near-term – 2009 earnings flat to 2008 • Well positioned for these volatile markets and economic conditions • Outlook for 2011 remains strong • Pursuing Protect and Grow strategy |
4 Protect Today’s Value • Deliver superior operating performance • Advance competitive markets • Protect the value of our generation • Build healthy, self-sustaining delivery companies Grow Long-Term Value • Drive the organization to the next level of performance • Set the industry standard for low carbon energy generation and delivery through reductions, displacement and offsets • Rigorously evaluate and pursue new growth opportunities + Strategic Direction |
5 2008 Revised Guidance 2008 Revised EPS Guidance (1) Operating EPS: $4.15 - $4.30 (2) GAAP EPS: $3.90 - $4.30 (3) (1) See Appendix for reconciliation of adjusted (non-GAAP) operating EPS to GAAP EPS. (2) Operating EPS Guidance revised from previous range of $4.00 - $4.40 per share. (3) GAAP Guidance revised from previous range of $3.70 - $4.10 per share. Key Drivers 2008 vs. 2007 Market conditions Nuclear volume (refueling outages) Inflationary pressures PECO CTC amortization Weather Storms PECO bad debt expense ComEd transmission settlement ComEd distribution rate case We are revising FY08 operating earnings guidance to $4.15 to $4.30/share 2008 $4.15 - $4.30 |
6 Executing on Value Return Plan Recent Share Repurchases - $3.25 billion • 2008 Repurchases – $0.5 billion accelerated share repurchase in February 2008 – $1.5 billion share repurchase announced in September 2008 • 2007 Repurchases – $1.25 billion accelerated share repurchase in September 2007 Dividends • Annual base dividend rate reset at $2.00/share (up 14%) in December 2007 – Anticipated to grow modestly over time (1) – Higher base dividend reflected higher expected long-term earnings due to improved market fundamentals (1) Future dividends are subject to declaration by the Board of Directors. |
7 Value Return Framework Less Equals Maintenance Capital and Committed Dividends Free Cash Flow before Dividends and CapEx Strengthen Balance Sheet / Increase Financial Flexibility Invest in Growth Available Cash and Balance Sheet Capacity (1) Return Value via Share Repurchases, Increased Dividends Monetize We evaluate value return on an annual basis (1) Exelon targets a FFO/Debt Ratio of ~25%. |
8 Flexibility in our targeted financial hedge ranges allows us to be opportunistic while mitigating downside risk Hedging Targets (1) Percent financially hedged is our estimate of the gross margin that is hedged at a 95% confidence level given the current assessment of market volatility. The formula is the gross margin at the 5th percentile / expected gross margin. Power Team employs commodity hedging strategies to optimize Exelon Generation’s earnings: • Maintain length for opportunistic sales • Use cross commodity option strategies to enhance hedge activities • Time hedging around view of market fundamentals • Supplement portfolio with load following products • Use physical and financial fuel products to manage variability in fossil generation output Target Ranges 90% - 98% 70% - 90% 50% - 70% ~96% Current Position Top of range Above the range* Prompt Year (2008) Second Year (2009) Third Year (2010) Financial Hedging Range (1) * Due to ComEd financial swap |
9 2009-2011 Earnings Drivers 2008 Guidance 2011 2009 $4.15 - $4.30 40% EPS Growth (1) Exelon is focused on creating sustainable value (1) As presented at Exelon’s 12/19/07 Investor Conference. 2011 Earnings Drivers • Market Conditions • PECO PPA roll-off Managing our Base Case • Strong financial and operating performance • Executing regulatory recovery plan • Managing transition to competitive markets • Increasingly strong cash flows and balance sheet • Alignment of and consistency between value return, hedging, capital structure and capital investment policies |
10 Environmental / climate change concerns Slowing US economy and increasing inflationary cost pressures Energy dependence / geopolitical concerns Continued strong global growth in energy consumption Declining US reserve margins Massive capital investment Tightening regulatory environments Increasing cost of new build Technology improvements Increasing commodity prices Increasing capacity prices Macro Trends Market Response Well Positioned to Provide Sustainable Value Continued strong financial and operating performance, and long-term earnings growth driven by unregulated generation Largest, lowest-cost nuclear fleet in the US, all in competitive markets Executing regulatory recovery plan to put ComEd on a path toward appropriate returns and solid credit metrics Managing transition to competitive markets in Pennsylvania Increasingly strong cash flows and investment- grade balance sheet Alignment of and consistency between value return, hedging, capital structure and capital investment policies Well-positioned to capture growth opportunities consistent with low carbon energy strategy Exelon’s Position |
11 Appendix |
12 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 55 65 75 85 95 105 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 Forward NYMEX Natural Gas PJM-West and Ni-Hub On-Peak Forward Prices PJM-West and Ni-Hub Wrap Forward Prices 2010 Ni-Hub 2011 Ni-Hub 2011 PJM-West 2010 PJM-West 2010 2011 Market Price Snapshot Rolling 12 months, as of August 29, 2008. Source: OTC quotes and electronic trading system. Quotes are daily. 2010 Ni-Hub 2011 Ni-Hub 2011 PJM-West 2010 PJM-West 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 Forward NYMEX Coal 2010 2011 |
13 8 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 2011 2010 2010 2011 2010 2011 Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Forward Prices ERCOT North On-Peak Forward Prices ERCOT North On-Peak v. Houston Ship Channel Implied Heat Rate Market Price Snapshot Rolling 12 months, as of August 29, 2008. Source: OTC quotes and electronic trading system. Quotes are daily. 2010 2011 ERCOT On Peak Spark Spread Assumes a 7.2 Heat Rate, $1.50 O&M, and $.15 adder 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 4/08 5/08 6/08 7/08 8/08 |
14 YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation (0.02) - - (0.02) - 2007 Illinois Electric Rate Settlement $2.05 - $0.33 $0.05 $1.67 YTD 2007 GAAP Earnings Per Share $2.10 $(0.07) $0.33 $0.07 $1.77 2007 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share 0.01 - - - 0.01 Sale of Generation's investments in TEG and TEP $0.08 $0.07 - - 0.01 Investments in synthetic fuel-producing facilities (0.12) - - - (0.12) Mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging activities Exelon Other PECO ComEd ExGen Six Months Ended June 30, 2007 $2.01 $0.01 $0.23 $0.12 $1.65 YTD 2008 GAAP Earnings Per Share 2.06 $(0.03) $0.23 $0.12 $1.74 2008 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share (0.14) - - - (0.14) 2007 Illinois Electric Rate Settlement 0.17 0.04 - - 0.13 Mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging activities (0.08) - - - (0.08) Unrealized gains and losses related to nuclear decommissioning trust funds Exelon Other PECO ComEd ExGen Six Months Ended June 30, 2008 NOTE: All amounts shown are per Exelon share and represent contributions to Exelon's EPS. |
15 2008/2009 Earnings Outlook • Exelon’s outlook for 2008/2009 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings excludes the earnings impacts of the following: • Mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging activities • Unrealized gains and losses from nuclear decommissioning trust fund investments • Significant impairments of assets, including goodwill • Significant changes in decommissioning obligation estimates • Costs associated with the Illinois electric rate settlement agreement, including ComEd’s previously announced customer rate relief programs • Costs associated with ComEd’s settlement with the City of Chicago • Other unusual items • Significant future changes to GAAP • Both our operating earnings and GAAP earnings guidance are based on the assumption of normal weather |
16 Exelon Investor Relations Contacts Inquiries concerning this presentation should be directed to: Exelon Investor Relations 10 South Dearborn Street Chicago, Illinois 60603 312-394-2345 For copies of other presentations, annual/quarterly reports, or to be added to our email distribution list please contact: Felicia McGowan, Executive Admin Coordinator 312-394-4069 Felicia.McGowan@ExelonCorp.com Investor Relations Contacts: Chaka Patterson, Vice President 312-394-7234 Chaka.Patterson@ExelonCorp.com Karie Anderson, Director 312-394-4255 Karie.Anderson@ExelonCorp.com Marybeth Flater, Manager 312-394-8354 Marybeth.Flater@ExelonCorp.com |