Safety Insurance (SAFT) 10-Q 2021 Q1 Quarterly report

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2021

OR

☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the transition period from ______to ______                 

Commission File Number: 000-50070

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware	13-4181699
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)	(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

20 Custom House Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02110

(Address of principal executive offices including zip code)

(617) 951-0600

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Not Applicable

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class	Trading Symbol	Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share	SAFT	The Nasdaq Stock Market, LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.  Yes ⌧  No ◻

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files).  Yes ⌧  No ◻

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See the definition of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. (Check one):

Large accelerated filer	☒	Accelerated filer	☐
Non-accelerated filer	☐	Smaller reporting company	☐
		Emerging growth company	☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.    ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).   Yes ☐  No ⌧

As of May 6, 2021 there were 14,982,998 shares of common stock with a par value of $0.01 per share outstanding.

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

		Page No.
Part I. Financial Information
Item 1.	Consolidated Financial Statements
	Consolidated Balance Sheets	3
	Consolidated Statements of Operations	4
	Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss)	5
	Consolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity	6
	Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows	7
	Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements	8
Item 2.	Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations	24
Item 3.	Quantitative and Qualitative Information about Market Risk	43
Item 4.	Controls and Procedures	43
Part II. Other Information
Item 1	Legal Proceedings	45
Item 1A.	Risk Factors	45
Item 2.	Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds	45
Item 3.	Defaults upon Senior Securities	45
Item 4.	Mine Safety Disclosures	45
Item 5.	Other Information	45
Item 6.	Exhibits	45
EXHIBIT INDEX		46
SIGNATURE		47

2

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Balance Sheets

(Dollars in thousands, except share data)

	March 31,		December 31,
	2021		2020
	(Unaudited)
Assets
Investments:
Fixed maturities, available for sale, at fair value (amortized cost: $1,194,353 and $1,189,951, allowance for expected credit losses of $873 and $1,054)	$	1,237,181	$	1,256,653
Short term investments, at fair value (cost: $443 and $441)		447		441
Equity securities, at fair value (cost: $173,054 and $168,289)		216,226		205,254
Other invested assets		52,148		45,239
Total investments		1,506,002		1,507,587
Cash and cash equivalents		51,563		53,769
Accounts receivable, net of allowance for expected credit losses of $2,184 and $1,754		170,915		179,147
Receivable for securities sold		10,950		1,311
Accrued investment income		9,328		8,045
Taxes recoverable		—		279
Receivable from reinsurers related to paid loss and loss adjustment expenses		7,666		13,432
Receivable from reinsurers related to unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses		108,178		106,311
Ceded unearned premiums		21,524		22,406
Deferred policy acquisition costs		72,303		74,962
Equity and deposits in pools		29,875		30,429
Operating lease right-of-use-assets		29,801		31,000
Other assets		27,555		25,595
Total assets	$	2,045,660	$	2,054,273
Liabilities
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves	$	577,266	$	567,581
Unearned premium reserves		412,387		421,901
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities		44,944		79,486
Payable for securities purchased		28,487		7,144
Payable to reinsurers		525		8,236
Deferred income taxes		11,574		17,611
Taxes payable		6,055		—
Debt		30,000		30,000
Operating lease liabilities		29,801		31,000
Other liabilities		14,368		6,635
Total liabilities		1,155,407		1,169,594
Commitments and contingencies (Note 8)
Shareholders’ equity
Common stock: $0.01 par value; 30,000,000 shares authorized; 17,814,166 and 17,724,866 shares issued		178		178
Additional paid-in capital		211,638		209,779
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of taxes		34,527		53,527
Retained earnings		767,744		745,029
Treasury stock, at cost: 2,831,168 shares		(123,834)		(123,834)
Total shareholders’ equity		890,253		884,679
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$	2,045,660	$	2,054,273

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

3

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Operations

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Net earned premiums	$	192,850	$	197,895
Net investment income		11,532		10,710
Earnings from partnership investments		4,291		1,339
Net realized gains (losses) on investments		2,875		(631)
Change in net unrealized gains on equity investments		6,207		(29,988)
Credit loss benefit (expense)		181		(2,510)
Finance and other service income		3,972		4,229
Total revenue		221,908		181,044
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		111,495		120,746
Underwriting, operating and related expenses		65,024		63,082
Interest expense		129		47
Total expenses		176,648		183,875
Income (loss) before income taxes		45,260		(2,831)
Income tax expense (benefit)		9,086		(841)
Net income (loss)	$	36,174	$	(1,990)
Earnings (loss) per weighted average common share:
Basic	$	2.44	$	(0.13)
Diluted	$	2.42	$	(0.13)
Cash dividends paid per common share	$	0.90	$	0.90
Number of shares used in computing earnings per share:
Basic		14,790,125		15,230,784
Diluted		14,886,494		15,347,083

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

4

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss)

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands)

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Net income (loss)	$	36,174	$	(1,990)
Other comprehensive loss, net of tax:
Unrealized holding losses during the period, net of income tax benefit of ($4,447) and ($5,924).		(16,729)		(22,284)
Reclassification adjustment for net realized (gains) losses on investments included in net income (loss), net of income tax (expense) benefit of ($604) and $132.		(2,271)		498
Other comprehensive loss, net of tax:		(19,000)		(21,786)
Comprehensive income (loss)	$	17,174	$	(23,776)

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

5

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands)

					Accumulated
					Other
			Additional		Comprehensive						Total
	Common		Paid-in		Income,		Retained		Treasury		Shareholders’
	Stock		Capital		Net of Taxes		Earnings		Stock		Equity
Balance at December 31, 2019	$	177	$	202,321	$	28,190	$	661,553	$	(83,835)	$	808,406
Net loss, January 1 to March 31, 2020								(1,990)				(1,990)
Unrealized losses on securities available for sale, net of deferred federal income taxes						(21,786)						(21,786)
Restricted share awards issued				528								528
Recognition of employee share-based compensation, net of deferred federal income taxes				1,215								1,215
Dividends paid and accrued								(13,872)				(13,872)
Acquisition of treasury stock										(10,392)		(10,392)
Balance at March 31, 2020	$	177	$	204,064	$	6,404	$	645,691	$	(94,227)	$	762,109

					Accumulated
					Other
			Additional		Comprehensive						Total
	Common		Paid-in		Income,		Retained		Treasury		Shareholders’
	Stock		Capital		Net of Taxes		Earnings		Stock		Equity
Balance at December 31, 2020	$	178	$	209,779	$	53,527	$	745,029	$	(123,834)	$	884,679
Net income, January 1 to March 31, 2021								36,174				36,174
Unrealized losses on securities available for sale, net of deferred federal income taxes						(19,000)						(19,000)
Restricted share awards issued				475								475
Recognition of employee share-based compensation, net of deferred federal income taxes				1,384								1,384
Dividends paid and accrued								(13,459)				(13,459)
Balance at March 31, 2021	$	178	$	211,638	$	34,527	$	767,744	$	(123,834)	$	890,253

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

6

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands)

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net income (loss)	$	36,174	$	(1,990)
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
Investment amortization, net		733		1,774
Fixed Asset depreciation, net		1,883		1,606
Stock based compensation		1,860		1,744
Credit for deferred income taxes		(987)		(5,927)
Net realized (gains) losses on investments		(2,875)		631
Credit loss (benefit) expense		(181)		2,510
Earnings from partnership investments		(4,291)		(1,339)
Change in net unrealized gains on equity investments		(6,207)		29,988
Changes in assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable		8,232		3,698
Accrued investment income		(1,283)		(748)
Receivable from reinsurers		3,899		(1,685)
Ceded unearned premiums		882		4,991
Deferred policy acquisition costs		2,659		2,155
Taxes recoverable		279		1,003
Other assets		(416)		877
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves		9,685		(1,873)
Unearned premium reserves		(9,514)		(13,928)
Taxes payable		6,055		543
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities		(34,086)		(18,748)
Payable to reinsurers		(7,711)		(10,465)
Other liabilities		7,733		(23,332)
Net cash provided by (used for) operating activities		12,523		(28,515)
Cash flows from investing activities:
Fixed maturities purchased		(67,867)		(32,329)
Equity securities purchased		(9,810)		(12,095)
Other invested assets purchased		(2,762)		(3,389)
Proceeds from sales and paydowns of fixed maturities		31,573		33,433
Proceeds from maturities, redemptions, and calls of fixed maturities		43,821		28,909
Proceed from sales of equity securities		6,730		8,638
Proceeds from other invested assets redeemed		374		106
Fixed assets purchased		(2,873)		(2,977)
Net cash (used for) provided by investing activities		(814)		20,296
Cash flows from financing activities:
Proceeds from FHLB loan		—		30,000
Dividends paid to shareholders		(13,915)		(14,229)
Acquisition of treasury stock		—		(10,392)
Net cash (used for) provided by financing activities		(13,915)		5,379
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents		(2,206)		(2,840)
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year		53,769		44,407
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period	$	51,563	$	41,567

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

7

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

1. Basis of Presentation

The consolidated financial statements have been prepared on the basis of accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”). The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. Actual results could differ from these estimates.

The consolidated financial statements include Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries (the “Company”). The subsidiaries consist of Safety Insurance Company, Safety Indemnity Insurance Company, Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company, Safety Northeast Insurance Company, Safety Asset Management Corporation (“SAMC”), and Safety Management Corporation, which is SAMC’s holding company. All intercompany transactions have been eliminated.

The financial information for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020 is unaudited; however, in the opinion of the Company, the information includes all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring adjustments, necessary for a fair presentation of the financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows for the periods. The financial information as of December 31, 2020 is derived from the audited financial statements included in the Company's 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 26, 2021.

These unaudited interim consolidated financial statements may not be indicative of financial results for the full year and should be read in conjunction with the audited financial statements included in the Company’s 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 26, 2021.

The Company is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance focused primarily on the Massachusetts market. The Company’s principal product line is automobile insurance. The Company operates through its insurance company subsidiaries, Safety Insurance Company, Safety Indemnity Insurance Company and Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company (together referred to as the “Insurance Subsidiaries”).

The Insurance Subsidiaries began writing private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance in New Hampshire during 2008, personal umbrella insurance in New Hampshire during 2009, and commercial automobile insurance in New Hampshire during 2011. The Insurance Subsidiaries began writing all of these lines of business in Maine during 2016. In November 2020, Safety Northeast Insurance Company was formed as a fourth insurance subsidiary, which became licensed to write insurance products in Massachusetts in January of 2021.

Management has assessed and concluded that there were no conditions or events, considered in the aggregate, that raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date the financial statements were issued.

2. Recent Accounting Pronouncements

In December 2019, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) issued ASU 2019-12, ​Income Taxes (Topic 740): Simplifying the Accounting for Income Taxes, which removes certain exceptions to the general principles of ASC 740, including exceptions to intra-period tax allocation where there is a loss from continuing operations, foreign subsidiary treatment and for calculating interim income taxes when the year-to-date loss exceeds the anticipated loss. The update also clarifies and amends existing guidance related to changes in tax laws, business combinations, employee stock plans, among others. The Company adopted the ASU effective January 1, 2021. As a result of adoption, there was no impact on the Company’s financial position, results of operations, cash flows, or disclosures.

8

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

On March 20, 2019, the SEC adopted amendments to Regulation S-K and related rules and forms to modernize and simplify certain disclosure requirements for public companies. The amendments are intended to reduce the costs and burdens of the disclosure process while continuing to require disclosure of all material information. The amended rules generally were effective on May 2, 2019 and reduce disclosures but some provisions added new requirements. On August 26, 2020, the SEC adopted additional amendments to Regulation S-K to modernize certain disclosure requirements relating to the description of business, legal proceedings and risk factors which are required to be disclosed in the Form 10-K. The amended rules are effective for filings on or after November 9, 2020. The adoption of the new rules did not and will not have a material impact on the Company’s financial position, results of operations, cash flows, or disclosures.

3. Earnings per Weighted Average Common Share

Basic earnings per weighted average common share (“EPS”) are calculated by dividing net income by the weighted average number of basic common shares outstanding during the period. Diluted earnings per share amounts are based on the weighted average number of common shares including non-vested performance stock grants.

The following table sets forth the computation of basic and diluted EPS for the periods indicated.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Earnings (loss) attributable to common shareholders - basic and diluted:
Net income (loss) from continuing operations	$	36,174	$	(1,990)
Allocation of (income) loss for participating shares		(163)		10
Net income (loss) from continuing operations attributed to common shareholders	$	36,011	$	(1,980)
Earnings (loss) per share denominator - basic and diluted
Total weighted average common shares outstanding, including participating shares		14,856,760		15,304,758
Less: weighted average participating shares		(66,635)		(73,974)
Basic earnings (loss) per share denominator		14,790,125		15,230,784
Common equivalent shares- non-vested performance stock grants		96,369		116,299
Diluted earnings (loss) per share denominator		14,886,494		15,347,083
Basic earnings (loss) per share	$	2.44	$	(0.13)
Diluted earnings (loss) per share	$	2.42	$	(0.13)
Undistributed earnings (loss) attributable to common shareholders - basic and diluted:
Net income (loss) from continuing operations attributable to common shareholders -Basic	$	2.44	$	(0.13)
Dividends declared		(0.90)		(0.90)
Undistributed earnings (loss)	$	1.54	$	(1.03)
Net income (loss) from continuing operations attributable to common shareholders -Diluted	$	2.42	$	(0.13)
Dividends declared		(0.90)		(0.90)
Undistributed earnings (loss)	$	1.52	$	(1.03)

Diluted EPS excludes non-vested performance stock grants with exercise prices and exercise tax benefits greater than the average market price of the Company’s common stock during the period because their inclusion would be anti-dilutive. There were 769 anti-dilutive shares related to non-vested performance stock grants for the three months ended March 31, 2021. There were 0 anti-dilutive shares related to non-vested stock grants for the three months ended March 31, 2020.
​

9

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

4.  Share-Based Compensation

2018 Long Term Incentive Plan

On April 2, 2018, the Company’s Board of Directors adopted the Safety Insurance Group, Inc. 2018 Long-Term Incentive Plan (“the 2018 Plan”), which was subsequently approved by our shareholders at the 2018 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The 2018 Plan enables the grant of stock awards, performance shares, cash-based performance units, other stock-based awards, stock options, stock appreciation rights, and stock unit awards, each of which may be granted separately or in tandem with other awards. Eligibility to participate includes officers, directors, employees and other individuals who provide bona fide services to the Company. The 2018 Plan supersedes the Company’s 2002 Management Omnibus Incentive Plan (“the 2002 Incentive Plan”).

The 2018 Plan establishes an initial pool of 350,000 shares of common stock available for issuance to our employees and other eligible participants. The Board of Directors and the Compensation Committee intend to issue awards under the 2018 Plan in the future.

The maximum number of shares of common stock between both the 2018 Plan and 2002 Incentive Plan with respect to which awards may be granted is 2,850,000. NaN further grants will be allowed under the 2002 Incentive Plan. At March 31, 2021, there were 164,908 shares available for future grant.

Accounting and Reporting for Stock-Based Awards

Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”) 718, Compensation —Stock Compensation requires the Company to measure and recognize the cost of employee services received in exchange for an award of equity instruments. Under the provisions of ASC 718, share-based compensation cost is measured at the grant date, based on the fair value of the award, and is recognized as an expense over the requisite service period (generally the vesting period of the equity grant).

Restricted Stock

Service-based restricted stock awarded in the form of unvested shares is recorded at the market value of the Company’s common stock on the grant date and amortized ratably as compensation expense over the requisite service period. Service-based restricted stock awards generally vest over a three-year period and vest 30% on the first and second anniversaries of the grant date and 40% on the third anniversary of the grant date, except for non-executive employees’ restricted stock awards granted prior to 2018 which vest ratably over a five-year service period and independent directors’ stock awards which vest immediately. Our independent directors are subject to stock ownership guidelines, which require them to have a value four times their annual cash retainer.

In addition to service-based awards, the Company grants performance-based restricted shares to certain employees.  These performance shares cliff vest after a three-year performance period provided certain performance measures are attained.  A portion of these awards, which contain a market condition, vest according to the level of total shareholder return achieved by the Company compared to its property-casualty insurance peers over a three-year period. The remainder, which contain a performance condition, vest according to the level of Company’s combined ratio results compared to a target based on its property-casualty insurance peers.

Actual payouts can range from 0% to 200% of target shares awarded depending upon the level of achievement of the respective market and performance conditions during a three calendar-year performance period.  Compensation expense for share awards with a performance condition is based on the probable number of awards expected to vest using the performance level most likely to be achieved at the end of the performance period.

10

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

Performance-based awards with market conditions are accounted for and measured differently from awards that have a performance or service condition.  The effect of a market condition is reflected in the award’s fair value on the grant date.  That fair value is recognized as compensation cost over the requisite service period regardless of whether the market-based performance objective has been satisfied.

All of the Company’s restricted stock awards are issued as incentive compensation and are equity classified.

The following table summarizes restricted stock activity under the Incentive Plan during the three months ended March 31, 2021 assuming a target payout for the 2021 performance-based shares.

	Shares	Weighted		Performance-based		Weighted
	Under	Average		Shares Under		Average
	Restriction	Fair Value		Restriction		Fair Value
Outstanding at beginning of year	66,550	$	85.16	71,964		$	84.94
Granted	39,840		79.27	49,460	(1)		77.56
Vested and unrestricted	(39,983)		80.67	(48,666)			75.05
Forfeited	—		—	—			—
Outstanding at end of period	66,407	$	84.32	72,758		$	86.54

(1) Includes a true-up of previously awarded performance-based restricted share awards. The updated shares were calculated based on the attainment of pre-established performance objectives and granted under the 2002 Incentive Plan.

As of March 31, 2021, there was $10,283 of unrecognized compensation expense related to non-vested restricted stock awards that is expected to be recognized over a weighted average period of 1.6 years.  The total fair value of the shares that were vested and unrestricted during the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020 was $6,878 and $6,493, respectively.  For the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, the Company recorded compensation expense related to restricted stock of $1,469 and $1,378, net of income tax benefits of $391 and $366, respectively.

5.  Investments

The gross unrealized gains and losses on investments in fixed maturity securities, including redeemable preferred stocks that have characteristics of fixed maturities, and equity securities, including interests in mutual funds, and other invested assets were as follows for the periods indicated.

	As of March 31, 2021
	Cost or		Allowance for		Gross Unrealized				Estimated
	Amortized		Expected Credit						Fair
	Cost		Losses		Gains		Losses  (3)		Value
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,820	$	—	$	33	$	—	$	1,853
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		196,353		—		5,922		(257)		202,018
Residential mortgage-backed securities (1)		227,684		—		10,047		(329)		237,402
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		127,214		—		5,670		(360)		132,524
Other asset-backed securities		75,767		—		661		(13)		76,415
Corporate and other securities		565,515		(873)		25,159		(2,832)		586,969
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		1,194,353		(873)		47,492		(3,791)		1,237,181
Short term investments		443		—		4		—		447
Equity securities (2)		173,054		—		44,227		(1,055)		216,226
Other invested assets (4)		52,148		—		—		—		52,148
Totals	$	1,419,998	$	(873)	$	91,723	$	(4,846)	$	1,506,002

11

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

	As of December 31, 2020
	Cost or		Allowance for		Gross Unrealized				Estimated
	Amortized		Expected Credit						Fair
	Cost		Losses		Gains		Losses  (3)		Value
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,821	$	—	$	44	$	—	$	1,865
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		214,647		—		7,745		(3)		222,389
Residential mortgage-backed securities (1)		229,910		—		11,701		(14)		241,597
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		115,575		—		10,460		—		126,035
Other asset-backed securities		72,756		—		531		(163)		73,124
Corporate and other securities		555,242		(1,054)		38,415		(960)		591,643
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		1,189,951		(1,054)		68,896		(1,140)		1,256,653
Short term investments		441		—		0		—		441
Equity securities (2)		168,289		—		38,676		(1,711)		205,254
Other invested assets (4)		45,239		—		—		—		45,239
Totals	$	1,403,920	$	(1,054)	$	107,572	$	(2,851)	$	1,507,587

(1) Residential mortgage-backed securities consists primarily of obligations of U.S. Government agencies including collateralized mortgage obligations issued, guaranteed and/or insured by the following issuers: Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB).

(2) Equity securities include common stock, preferred stock, mutual funds and interests in mutual funds held to fund the Company’s executive deferred compensation plan.

(3) The Company’s investment portfolio included 379 and 270 securities in an unrealized loss position at March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively.

(4) Other invested assets are accounted for under the equity method which approximated fair value.

The amortized cost and the estimated fair value of fixed maturity securities, by maturity, are shown below for the period indicated. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.

	As of March 31, 2021
	Amortized		Estimated
	Cost		Fair Value
Due in one year or less	$	111,893	$	113,114
Due after one year through five years		248,007		258,428
Due after five years through ten years		343,784		356,572
Due after ten years through twenty years		57,503		59,820
Due after twenty years		1,527		1,930
Asset-backed securities		431,639		447,317
Totals	$	1,194,353	$	1,237,181

The gross realized losses and gains on sales of investments were as follows for the periods indicated.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Gross realized gains
Fixed maturity securities	$	1,246	$	889
Equity securities		1,773		1,576
Gross realized losses
Fixed maturity securities		(57)		(301)
Equity securities		(87)		(2,795)
Net realized gains (losses) on investments	$	2,875	$	(631)

In the normal course of business, the Company enters into transactions involving various types of financial instruments, including investments in fixed maturities and equity securities. Investment transactions have credit exposure to the extent that a counter party may default on an obligation to the Company. Credit risk is a consequence of carrying, trading and investing in securities. To manage credit risk, the Company focuses on higher quality fixed income

12

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

securities, reviews the credit strength of all companies in which it invests, limits its exposure in any one investment and monitors the portfolio quality, taking into account credit ratings assigned by recognized statistical rating organizations.

The following tables as of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020 present the gross unrealized losses included in the Company’s investment portfolio and the fair value of those securities aggregated by investment category. The tables also present the length of time that they have been in a continuous unrealized loss position.

	As of March 31, 2021
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized
	Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses
U.S. Treasury securities	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		10,512		257		—		—		10,512		257
Residential mortgage-backed securities		35,083		329		9		—		35,092		329
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		10,715		360		—		—		10,715		360
Other asset-backed securities		3,641		13		—		—		3,641		13
Corporate and other securities		127,923		2,700		11,083		132		139,006		2,832
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		187,874		3,659		11,092		132		198,966		3,791
Equity securities		7,856		374		3,990		681		11,846		1,055
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	195,730	$	4,033	$	15,082	$	813	$	210,812	$	4,846

	As of December 31, 2020
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized
	Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses
U.S. Treasury securities	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		1,047		3		—		—		1,047		3
Residential mortgage-backed securities		8,569		14		9		—		8,578		14
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		—		—		—		—		—		—
Other asset-backed securities		26,959		84		9,004		79		35,963		163
Corporate and other securities		62,882		863		6,774		97		69,656		960
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		99,457		964		15,787		176		115,244		1,140
Equity securities		10,708		986		2,293		725		13,001		1,711
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	110,165	$	1,950	$	18,080	$	901	$	128,245	$	2,851

At March 31, 2021, U.S. Government residential mortgage backed securities with a fair value of $34,684 are pledged as collateral for a borrowing with the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston (“FHLB-Boston”) as described in Note 9 – Debt. These securities are included in fixed maturity securities on the Company’s Consolidated Balance Sheets.

Impairments

For fixed maturities that the Company does not intend to sell or for which it is more likely than not that the Company would not be required to sell before an anticipated recovery in value, the Company separates the expected credit loss component of the impairment from the amount related to all other factors. The expected credit loss component is recognized as an allowance for expected credit losses. The allowance is adjusted for any additional credit losses and subsequent recoveries, which are booked in income as either credit loss expense or credit loss benefit, respectively. Upon recognizing a credit loss, the cost basis is not adjusted. The impairment related to all other factors (non-credit factors) is reported in other comprehensive income.

For fixed maturities where the Company records a credit loss, a determination is made as to the cause of the impairment and whether the Company expects a recovery in the value. For fixed maturities where the Company expects a recovery in value, the constant effective yield method is utilized, and the investment is amortized to par.

13

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

For fixed maturity investments the Company intends to sell or for which it is more likely than not that the Company will be required to sell before an anticipated recovery in value, the full amount of the impairment is included in credit loss expense. The new cost basis of the investment is the previous amortized cost basis less the impairment recognized in credit loss expense. The new cost basis is not adjusted for any subsequent recoveries in fair value.

The Company uses a systematic methodology to evaluate declines in fair values below cost or amortized cost of our investments. Some of the factors considered in assessing impairment of fixed maturities due to credit losses include the extent to which the fair value is less than amortized cost, the financial condition of and the near and long-term prospects of the issuer, whether the debtor is current on its contractually obligated interest and principal payments, changes to the rating of the security by a rating agency, the historical volatility of the fair value of the security and whether it is more like than not that the Company will be required to sell the investment prior to an anticipated recovery in value.

As of March 31, 2021, the Company concluded that $873 of unrealized losses were due to credit factors and were recorded as an allowance for expected credit losses expense as of March 31, 2021, compared to $1,054 for the as of December 31, 2020. The Company concluded that outside of the securities that were recognized as credit impaired, the unrealized losses recorded on the fixed maturity portfolio at March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020 resulted from fluctuations in market interest rates and other temporary market conditions as opposed to fundamental changes in the credit quality of the issuers of such securities. Based upon the analysis performed, the Company’s decision to hold these securities, the Company’s current level of liquidity and our history of positive operating cash flows, management believes it is more likely than not that it will not be required to sell any of its securities before the anticipated recovery in the fair value to its amortized cost basis.

The following table represents a reconciliation of the beginning and ending balances of the allowance for expected credit losses on fixed maturities classified as available for sale.  

	Three Months Ended March 31,
		2021		2020
Balance, beginning of period	$	1,054	$	—
Credit losses on securities with no previously recorded credit losses		9		2,510
Net increases (decreases) in allowance on previously impaired securities		(188)		—
Reduction due to sales		(2)		—
Writeoffs charged against allowance		—		—
Recoveries of amounts previously written off		—		—
Balance, end of period	$	873	$	2,510

The Company holds 0 subprime mortgage debt securities.  All of the Company’s holdings in mortgage-backed securities are either U.S. Government or Agency guaranteed or are rated investment grade by either Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s.

14

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

Net Investment Income

The components of net investment income were as follows:

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Interest on fixed maturity securities	$	9,682	$	9,759
Dividends on equity securities		1,239		1,206
Equity in earnings of other invested assets		1,422		516
Interest on other assets		6		7
Total investment income		12,349		11,488
Investment expenses		817		778
Net investment income	$	11,532	$	10,710

Fair Value of Financial Instruments

ASC 820, Fair Value Measurements and Disclosure provides a revised definition of fair value, establishes a framework for measuring fair value and expands financial statement disclosure requirements for fair value information.  Under ASC 820, fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants (an exit price).  ASC 820 establishes a fair value hierarchy that distinguishes between inputs based on market data from independent sources (“observable inputs”) and a reporting entity’s internal assumptions based upon the best information available when external market data is limited or unavailable (“unobservable inputs”).  The fair value hierarchy in ASC 820 prioritizes fair value measurements into three levels based on the nature of the inputs as follows:

Level 1 — Valuations based on quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities;

Level 2 — Valuations based on observable inputs that do not meet the criteria for Level 1, including quoted prices in inactive markets and quoted prices in active markets for similar, but not identical instruments; and

Level 3 — Valuations based on unobservable inputs.

Fair values for the Company’s fixed maturity securities are based on prices provided by its custodian bank and its investment managers.  Both the Company’s custodian bank and investment managers use a variety of independent, nationally recognized pricing services to determine market valuations.  If the pricing service cannot provide fair value determinations, the Company obtains non-binding price quotes from broker-dealers.  A minimum of two quoted prices is obtained for the majority of the Company’s available-for-sale fixed maturity securities in its investment portfolio.  The Company uses a third-party pricing service as its primary provider of quoted prices from third-party pricing services and broker-dealers.  To provide reasonable assurance of the validity of each price or quote, a secondary third-party pricing service or broker-dealer quote is obtained from the Company’s custodian or investment managers.  An examination of the pricing data is then performed for each security.  If the variance between the primary and secondary price quotes for a security is within an accepted tolerance level, the quoted price obtained from the Company’s primary source is used for the security.  If the variance between the primary and secondary price quotes exceeds an accepted tolerance level, the Company obtains a quote from an alternative source, if possible, and documents and resolves any differences between the pricing sources.  In addition, the Company may request that its investment managers and its traders provide input as to which vendor is providing prices that its traders believe are reflective of fair value for the security.  Following this process, the Company may decide to value the security in its financial statements using the secondary or alternative source if it believes that pricing is more reflective of the security’s value than the primary pricing provided by its custodian bank.  The Company analyzes market valuations received to verify reasonableness, to understand the key assumptions used and their sources, and to determine an appropriate ASC 820 fair value hierarchy level based upon trading activity and the observability of market inputs.  Based on this evaluation and investment class analysis, each price is classified into Level 1, 2 or 3.

15

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

Fair values of instruments are based on (i) quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1), (ii) quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active and model-derived valuations in which all significant inputs are observable in active markets (Level 2) or (iii) valuations derived from valuation techniques in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable in the marketplace (Level 3).

The Company’s Level 1 securities consist of equity securities whose values are based on quoted prices in active markets for identical assets.  The Company’s Level 2 securities are comprised of available-for-sale fixed maturity securities whose fair value was determined using observable market inputs.  The Company’s Level 3 security consists of an investment in the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston related to Safety Insurance Company’s membership stock, which is not redeemable in a short-term time frame.  Fair values for securities for which quoted market prices were unavailable were estimated based upon reference to observable inputs such as benchmark interest rates, market comparables, and other relevant inputs.  Investments valued using these inputs include U.S. Treasury securities, obligations of states and political subdivisions, corporate and other securities, commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities, and other asset-backed securities.  Inputs into the fair value application that are utilized by asset class include but are not limited to:

●Obligations of states and political subdivisions:  overall credit quality, including assessments of market sectors and the level and variability of sources of payment such as general obligation, revenue or lease; credit support such as insurance, state or local economic and political base, prefunded and escrowed to maturity covenants.

●Corporate and other securities: overall credit quality, the establishment of a risk adjusted credit spread over the applicable risk-free yield curve for discounted cash flow valuations; assessments of the level of industry economic sensitivity, company financial policies, indenture restrictive covenants, and/or security and collateral.

●Residential mortgage-backed securities, U.S. agency pass-throughs, collateralized mortgage obligations (“CMOs”), non U.S. agency CMOs:  estimates of prepayment speeds based upon historical prepayment rate trends, underlying collateral interest rates, original weighted average maturity, vintage year, borrower credit quality characteristics, interest rate and yield curve forecasts, U.S. government support programs, tax policies, and delinquency/default trends.

●Commercial mortgage-backed securities:  overall credit quality, including assessments of the level and variability of credit support and collateral type such as office, retail, or lodging, predictability of cash flows for the deal structure, prevailing economic market conditions.

●Other asset-backed securities:  overall credit quality, estimates of prepayment speeds based upon historical trends and characteristics of underlying loans, including assessments of the level and variability of collateral, revenue generating agreements, area licenses agreements, product sourcing agreements and equipment and property leases.

●Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston (“FHLB-Boston”): value is equal to the cost of the member stock purchased.

In order to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price (consistent with ASC 820), the Company’s procedures for validating quotes or prices obtained from third parties include, but are not limited to, obtaining a minimum of two price quotes for each fixed maturity security if possible, as discussed above, the periodic testing of sales activity to determine if there are any significant differences between the market price used to value the security as of the balance sheet date and the sales price of the security for sales that occurred around the balance sheet date, and the periodic review of reports provided by its external investment manager regarding those securities with

16

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

ratings changes and securities placed on its “Watch List.” In addition, valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by the Company’s external investment manager, whose investment professionals are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade, to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price (consistent with ASC 820).

All unadjusted estimates of fair value for our fixed maturities priced by the pricing services as described above are included in the amounts disclosed in Level 2. With the exception of the FHLB-Boston security, which is categorized as a Level 3 security, the Company’s entire portfolio was priced based upon quoted market prices or other observable inputs as of March 31, 2021. There were no significant changes to the valuation process during the three months ended March 31, 2021. As of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, no quotes or prices obtained were adjusted by management. All broker quotes obtained were non-binding.

At March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, investments in fixed maturities classified as available-for-sale had a fair value which equaled carrying value $1,237,181 and $1,256,653, respectively. At March 31, 2021, the Company held $447 of short-term investments and at December 31, 2020, the Company held $441 of short-term investments. The carrying values of cash and cash equivalents and investment income accrued approximated fair value.

The following tables summarize the Company’s total fair value measurements for investments for the periods indicated.

	As of March 31, 2021
	Total		Level 1 Inputs		Level 2 Inputs		Level 3 Inputs
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,853	$	—	$	1,853	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		202,018		—		202,018		—
Residential mortgage-backed securities		237,402		—		237,402		—
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		132,524		—		132,524		—
Other asset-backed securities		76,415		—		76,415		—
Corporate and other securities		586,969		—		586,969		—
Short term investments		447		—		447		—
Equity securities		183,731		182,033		—		1,698
Total investment securities	$	1,421,359	$	182,033	$	1,237,628	$	1,698

	As of December 31, 2020
	Total		Level 1 Inputs		Level 2 Inputs		Level 3 Inputs
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,865	$	—	$	1,865	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		222,389		—		222,389		—
Residential mortgage-backed securities		241,597		—		241,597		—
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		126,035		—		126,035		—
Other asset-backed securities		73,124		—		73,124		—
Corporate and other securities		591,643		—		591,643		—
Short term investments		441		-		441		-
Equity securities		173,096		171,398		—		1,698
Total investment securities	$	1,430,190	$	171,398	$	1,257,094	$	1,698

As of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, there were approximately $32,495 and $32,158, respectively, in a real estate investment trust (“REIT”). The REIT is excluded from the fair value hierarchy because the fair value is recorded using the net asset value per share practical expedient. The net asset value per share of this REIT is derived from member ownership in the capital venture to which a proportionate share of independently appraised net assets is attributed. The fair value was determined using the trust’s net asset value obtained from its financial statements. The Company is required to submit a request 45 days before a quarter end to dispose of the security.

There were 0 transfers between Level 1 and Level 2 during the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020.

17

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

The following table summarizes the changes in the Company’s Level 3 fair value securities for the periods indicated.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
	Level 3		Level 3
	Fair Value		Fair Value
	Securities		Securities
Balance at beginning of period	$	1,698	$	516
Net gains and losses included in earnings		—		—
Net gains included in other comprehensive income		—		—
Purchases		—		1,170
Sales		—		—
Transfers into Level 3		—		—
Transfers out of Level 3		—		—
Balance at end of period	$	1,698	$	1,686
Amount of total losses included in earnings attributable to the change in unrealized losses related to assets still held at end of period	$	—	$	—

Transfers in and out of Level 3 are attributable to changes in the ability to observe significant inputs in determining fair value exit pricing. As noted in the table above, 0 transfers were made in or out of Level 3 during the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020. The Company held 1 Level 3 security at March 31, 2021 and March 31, 2020.

6.  Allowance for Expected Credit Losses

The Company’s financial instruments measured at amortized cost include premiums and accounts receivable, and reinsurance recoverables.

Premiums and accounts receivable are reported net of an allowance for expected credit losses. The allowance is based upon the Company’s ongoing review of amounts outstanding, historical loss data, including delinquencies and write-offs, current and forecasted economic conditions and other relevant factors. Credit risk is partially mitigated by the Company’s ability to cancel the policy if the policyholder does not pay the premium and the Company writes off premiums receivable balances that are more than 90 days overdue.

The following table presents the balances of premiums receivable, net of the allowance for expected credit losses and changes in the allowance for expected credit losses for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020.

		At and For the
		Three Months Ended March 31, 2021
		Accounts Receivable Net of Allowance for Expected Credit Losses		Allowance for Expected Credit Losses
Balance, beginning of period	$	179,147	$	1,754
Current period change for expected credit losses				1,768
Writeoffs of uncollectable accounts receivable				(1,338)
Balance, end of period	$	170,915	$	2,184

18

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

		At and For the
		Three Months Ended March 31, 2020
		Accounts Receivable Net of Allowance for Expected Credit Losses		Allowance for Expected Credit Losses
Balance, beginning of period	$	193,369	$	578
Current period change for expected credit losses				1,576
Writeoffs of uncollectable accounts receivable				(1,820)
Balance, end of period	$	189,671	$	334

Reinsurance recoverables include amounts due from reinsurers for both paid and unpaid losses. The Company cedes insurance to Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers (“CAR”) and to other reinsurers. The Company has a property catastrophe excess of loss agreement and a casualty excess of loss agreement that qualify as reinsurance treaties and are designed to protect against large or unusual loss and LAE activity. Reinsurance contracts do not relieve the Company from its obligations to policyholders. Failure of reinsurers to honor their obligations could result in losses to the Company. The Company evaluates the financial condition of its reinsurers and monitors economic characteristics of the reinsurers to minimize its exposure to significant losses from reinsurer insolvencies. The Company reports its reinsurance recoverbales net of an allowance for estimated uncollectable reinsurance. A probability-of-default methodology which reflects current and forecasted economic conditions is used to estimate the amount of uncollectible reinsurance due to credit-related factors and the estimate is reported in an allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance. Amounts deemed to be uncollectible, including amounts due from known insolvent reinsurers, are written off against the allowance. Changes in the allowance, as well as any subsequent collections of amounts previously written off, are reported as part of claims and claim adjustment expenses.

The majority of the Company’s reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses is a result of our participation as a servicing carrier in the CAR Commercial Automobile Program and the Taxi/Limo Program, which represents 98% of the total reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses at March 31, 2021 and at December 31, 2020. The remaining 2% of amounts due from reinsurers are related to our other excess of loss and quota share contracts. For amounts due under these contracts, the Company utilizes updated A.M. Best credit ratings on a quarterly basis to determine the allowance for expected credit losses. As of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, all reinsurers under these programs are rated “A” or better by A.M. Best. Certain of the Company's reinsurance recoverables are collateralized by letters of credit, funds held or trust agreements. The Company’s analysis concludes that there are 0 expected credit losses at March 31, 2021 or December 31, 2020.

19

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

7.  Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

The following table sets forth a reconciliation of beginning and ending reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses (“LAE”), as shown in the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the periods indicated.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Reserves for losses and LAE at beginning of year	$	567,581	$	610,566
Less receivable from reinsurers related to unpaid losses and LAE		(106,311)		(122,372)
Net reserves for losses and LAE at beginning of year		461,270		488,194
Incurred losses and LAE, related to:
Current year		123,954		130,330
Prior years		(12,459)		(9,584)
Total incurred losses and LAE		111,495		120,746
Paid losses and LAE related to:
Current year		48,084		48,745
Prior years		55,593		72,839
Total paid losses and LAE		103,677		121,584
Net reserves for losses and LAE at end of period		469,088		487,356
Plus receivable from reinsurers related to unpaid losses and LAE		108,178		121,337
Reserves for losses and LAE at end of period	$	577,266	$	608,693

At the end of each period, the reserves were re-estimated for all prior accident years. The Company’s prior year reserves decreased by $12,459 and $9,584 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, and resulted from re-estimations of prior years ultimate loss and LAE liabilities. The decreases in prior years reserves during the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020 are primarily composed of reductions in our retained automobile and retained homeowners lines reserves.

The Company's automobile lines of business reserves decreased for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, primarily due to fewer incurred but not yet reported claims than previously estimated and better than previously estimated severity on the Company’s established bodily injury and property damage case reserves. Due to the nature of the risks that the Company underwrites and has historically underwritten, management does not believe that it has an exposure to asbestos or environmental pollution liabilities.

8.  Commitments and Contingencies

Various claims, generally incidental to the conduct of normal business, are pending or alleged against the Company from time to time. In the opinion of management, based in part on the advice of legal counsel, the ultimate resolution of such claims will not have a material adverse effect on the Company’s consolidated financial statements. However, if estimates of the ultimate resolutions of those proceedings are revised, liabilities related to those proceedings could be adjusted in the near term.

The Company has been named in a lawsuit alleging that the Company improperly denied coverage to commercial insureds for loss of business income resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Our business owner policies serve eligible small and medium sized commercial accounts including but not limited to apartments and condominiums; mercantile establishments; limited cooking restaurants; offices; and special trade contractors. The majority of these business owner policies do not contain a specific exclusion for viruses. However, as viruses do not produce direct physical damage or loss to property, our position is that no coverage exists for this peril. As a result, the Company accrued a reserve of $6,500 for legal defense costs during the year ended December 31, 2020.

Massachusetts law requires that insurers licensed to do business in Massachusetts participate in the Massachusetts Insurers Insolvency Fund (“Insolvency Fund”). Members of the Insolvency Fund are assessed a

20

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

proportionate share of the obligations and expenses of the Insolvency Fund in connection with an insolvent insurer. It is anticipated that there will be additional assessments from time to time relating to various insolvencies. Although the timing and amounts of any future assessments are not known, based upon existing knowledge, management’s opinion is that such future assessments are not expected to have a material effect upon the financial position of the Company.

9.  Debt

On the August 10, 2018, the Company extended its Revolving Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with Citizens Bank, N.A. (formerly known as RBS Citizens, N.A. (“Citizens Bank”)) to a maturity date of August 10, 2023. The Credit Agreement provides a $30,000 revolving credit facility with an accordion feature allowing for future expansion of the committed amount up to $50,000. Loans under the credit facility bear interest at the Company’s option at either (i) the LIBOR rate plus 1.25% per annum or (ii) the higher of Citizens Bank prime rate or 0.5% above the federal funds rate plus 1.25% per annum. Interest only is payable prior to maturity.

The Company’s obligations under the credit facility are secured by pledges of its assets and the capital stock of its operating subsidiaries. The credit facility is guaranteed by the Company’s non-insurance company subsidiaries. The credit facility contains covenants including requirements to maintain minimum risk-based capital ratios and statutory surplus of Safety Insurance Company as well as limitations or restrictions on indebtedness, liens, and other matters. As of March 31, 2021, the Company was in compliance with all covenants. In addition, the credit facility includes customary events of default, including a cross-default provision permitting the lenders to accelerate the facility if the Company (i) defaults in any payment obligation under debt having a principal amount in excess of $10,000 or (ii) fails to perform any other covenant permitting acceleration of all such debt.

The Company had 0 amounts outstanding on its credit facility at March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020. The credit facility commitment fee included in interest expense was computed at a rate of 0.25% per annum on the $30,000 commitment at March 31, 2021 and 2020.

The Company is a member of the FHLB-Boston. Membership in the FHLB-Boston allows the Company to borrow money at competitive interest rates provided the loan is collateralized by specific U.S. Government residential mortgage backed securities. At March 31, 2021, the Company has the ability to borrow $228,192 using eligible invested assets that would be used as collateral.

On March 17, 2020, the Company borrowed $30,000 from the FHLB-Boston for a term of five-years, bearing interest at a rate of 1.42%. Interest is payable monthly and the principal is due on the maturity date of March 17, 2025 but may be prepaid in whole or in part by the Company in advance with a minor penalty for prepayment. The loan is fully collateralized by specific U.S. Government residential mortgage backed securities with a fair value of $34,684. The borrowing is outstanding from the FHLB-Boston at both March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020.

Interest expense on the FHLB-Boston borrowing was $107 and $18 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.

10. Income Taxes

Federal income tax expense for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020 has been computed using estimated effective tax rates.  These rates are revised, if necessary, at the end of each successive interim period to reflect the current estimates of the annual effective tax rates. The effective rate in 2021 was lower than the statutory rate primarily due to effects of tax-exempt investment income and the impact of stock-based compensation.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

The Company believes that the positions taken on its income tax returns for open tax years will be sustained upon examination by the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”).  Therefore, the Company has not recorded any liability for uncertain tax positions under ASC 740, Income Taxes.

During the three months ended March 31, 2021, there were no material changes to the amount of the Company’s unrecognized tax benefits or to any assumptions regarding the amount of its ASC 740 liability.

All tax years prior to 2017 are closed. There are no current examinations ongoing.

In the Company’s opinion, adequate tax liabilities have been established for all open years. However, the amount of these tax liabilities could be revised in the near term if estimates of the Company’s ultimate liability are revised.

11. Share Repurchase Program

On August 3, 2007, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $30,000 of the Company’s outstanding common shares. The Board of Directors had cumulatively authorized increases to the existing share repurchase program of up to $150,000 of its outstanding common shares.  Under the program, the Company may repurchase shares of its common stock for cash in public or private transactions, in the open market or otherwise.  The timing of such repurchases and actual number of shares repurchased will depend on a variety of factors including price, market conditions and applicable regulatory and corporate requirements.  The program does not require the Company to repurchase any specific number of shares and it may be modified, suspended or terminated at any time without prior notice.

NaN share purchases were made by the Company under the program during the three months ended March 31, 2021. The Company purchased 143,292 shares at a cost of $10,392 during the three months ended March 31, 2020. As of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, the Company has purchased 2,831,168 shares at a cost of $123,834.

12. Leases

The Company has various non-cancelable, long-term operating leases, the largest of which are for office space including the corporate headquarters, VIP claims centers and law offices. Other operating leases consist of auto leases and various office equipment. The Company has no finance leases. Our leases have remaining lease terms of one year to eight years, some of which include options to extend the leases for up to five years.

In calculating lease liabilities the Company uses its incremental borrowing rate as of the application date based on original lease terms. The components of lease expense were as follows:

	Three Months Ended March 31,
		2021		2020
Operating lease cost	$	1,149	$	1,151

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

Other information related to leases was as follows:

	Three Months Ended March 31,
		2021		2020
Cash paid for amounts included in the measurement of lease liabilities:
Operating cash flows from operating leases	$	1,267	$	1,282
Weighted average remaining lease term
Operating leases		7.36 Years		8.23 Years
Weighted average discount rate
Operating leases		2.34%		2.39%

Maturities of lease liabilities were as follows:

	Operating Leases
2021	$	3,700
2022		4,416
2023		3,986
2024		3,901
2025		3,835
Thereafter		11,569
Total lease payments		31,407
Less imputed interest		(1,606)
Total	$	29,801

13. Subsequent Events

The Company has evaluated subsequent events for recognition or disclosure in the consolidated financial statements filed on Form 10-Q with the SEC and no events have occurred that require recognition or disclosure.

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Item 2.

MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our accompanying consolidated financial statements and notes thereto, which appear elsewhere in this document. In this discussion, all dollar amounts are presented in thousands, except share and per share data.

The following discussion contains forward-looking statements. We intend statements which are not historical in nature to be, and are hereby identified as “forward-looking statements” to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In addition, the Company’s senior management may make forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, the media and others. This safe harbor requires that we specify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of us. We cannot promise that our expectations in such forward-looking statements will turn out to be correct. Our actual results could be materially different from and worse than our expectations. See “Forward-Looking Statements” below for specific important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements.

Executive Summary and Overview

In this discussion, “Safety” refers to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and “our Company,” “we,” “us” and “our” refer to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Our subsidiaries consist of Safety Insurance Company (“Safety Insurance”), Safety Indemnity Insurance Company (“Safety Indemnity”), Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company (“Safety P&C”), Safety Northeast Insurance Company (“Safety Northeast”), Safety Asset Management Corporation (“SAMC”), and Safety Management Corporation, which is SAMC’s holding company.

We are a leading provider of private passenger automobile, commercial automobile, homeowners and commercial other-than-auto insurance in Massachusetts. In addition to private passenger automobile insurance (which represented 54.9% of our direct written premiums in 2020), we offer a portfolio of other insurance products, including commercial automobile (14.9% of 2020 direct written premiums), homeowners (25.0% of 2020 direct written premiums) and dwelling fire, umbrella and business owner policies (totaling 5.2% of 2020 direct written premiums).  Operating exclusively in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine through our insurance company subsidiaries, Safety Insurance, Safety Indemnity, and Safety P&C (together referred to as the “Insurance Subsidiaries”), we have established strong relationships with independent insurance agents, who numbered 871 in 1,095 locations throughout these three states during 2020. We have used these relationships and our extensive knowledge of the Massachusetts market to become the third largest private passenger automobile carrier and the second largest commercial automobile insurance carrier in Massachusetts, capturing an approximate 8.4% and 12.8% share, respectively, of the Massachusetts private passenger and commercial automobile markets in 2020 according to statistics compiled by the CAR. We are also the third largest homeowners insurance carrier in Massachusetts with a 7.0% share of the Massachusetts homeowners insurance market.

A.M. Best, which rates insurance companies based on factors of concern to policyholders, currently assigns Safety Insurance an "A (Excellent)" rating. Our "A" rating was reaffirmed by A.M. Best on May 5, 2020.

Our Insurance Subsidiaries began writing insurance in New Hampshire during 2008 and in Maine in 2016. In November 2020, we formed a fourth insurance subsidiary, Safety Northeast Insurance Company, which became licensed to write insurance products in Massachusetts in January of 2021. The table below shows the amount of direct written premiums written in each state during the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020.

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	Three Months Ended March 31,
Direct Written Premiums	2021		2020
Massachusetts	$	184,253	$	189,839
New Hampshire		7,383		7,149
Maine		601		358
Total	$	192,237	$	197,346

Recent Trends and Events

Beginning in March 2020, the global pandemic associated with the novel coronavirus COVID-19 (“COVID-19”) and related economic conditions caused significant economic effects including temporary closures of many businesses and reduced consumer activity due to shelter-in-place, stay-at-home and other governmental actions. The Company continues to take actions that address the health and well-being of our employees while still serving the needs of our agents and insureds.

The immediate and long-term impacts of potential regulatory action, including rate changes on our private passenger automobile product, could affect the property and casualty insurance industry, and our future financial results, specifically the potential for an adverse impact on our ability to grow our business or to maintain our underwriting profitability. For additional information, see Part I, Item 1A — Risk Factors of our 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 and our statement on Forward Looking Statements.

The pandemic has resulted in fewer cars on the road, resulting in a decrease in frequency of claims, primarily in our private passenger automobile line of business. As a result, for the three months ended March 31, 2021, loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred decreased by $9,251 or 7.7%, to $111,495 from $120,746 for the comparable 2020 period.

There are many uncertainties with respect to COVID-19. For further discussion regarding the potential impacts of COVID-19 and related economic conditions on the Company, see Part I, Item 1A — Risk Factors of our 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020. These risks include legal challenges or legislative actions that extend business interruption coverage outside of our policy terms for business owner policies, which require direct physical loss or damage to property. As discussed in Note 8 – Commitments and Contingencies, the Company has been named in a lawsuit alleging that the Company improperly denied coverage to commercial insureds for loss of business income resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Our business owner policies serve eligible small and medium sized commercial accounts including but not limited to apartments and condominiums; mercantile establishments; limited cooking restaurants; offices; and special trade contractors. The majority of these business owner policies do not contain a specific exclusion for viruses. However, as viruses do not produce direct physical damage or loss to property, our position is that no coverage exists for this peril. As a result, the Company accrued a reserve of $6,500 for legal defense costs at March 31, 2021. While we will evaluate each claim based on the specific facts and circumstances involved, our business owner policies do not provide coverage for business interruption claims unless there is direct physical damage or loss to property.

Non-generally accepted accounting principals (“non-GAAP”) operating income as defined below was $28,856 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to $24,182 for the comparable 2020 period. The increase in Non-GAAP operating income was primarily the result of a decrease in loss and loss adjustment expenses compared to the prior period. Non-GAAP operating income for the quarter ended March 31, 2021 was $1.93 per diluted share, compared to $1.57 per diluted share, for the comparable 2020 period.

The following rate changes have been filed and approved by the insurance regulators of Massachusetts and New Hampshire in 2021 and 2020. Our Massachusetts private passenger automobile rates include a 13% commission rate for agents.

Line of Business	Effective Date	Rate Change
New Hampshire Homeowner	May 1, 2021	2.9%
Massachusetts Private Passenger Automobile	May 1, 2020	-0.6%

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Insurance Ratios

The property and casualty insurance industry uses the combined ratio as a measure of underwriting profitability.  The combined ratio is the sum of the loss ratio (losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred as a percent of net earned premiums) plus the expense ratio (underwriting and other expenses as a percent of net earned premiums, calculated on a GAAP basis).  The combined ratio reflects only underwriting results and does not include income from investments or finance and other service income.  Underwriting profitability is subject to significant fluctuations due to competition, catastrophic events, weather, economic and social conditions, and other factors.

Our GAAP insurance ratios are outlined in the following table.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
GAAP ratios:
Loss ratio	57.8	%	61.0	%
Expense ratio	33.7		31.9
Combined ratio	91.5	%	92.9	%

Share-Based Compensation

On April 2, 2018, the Company’s Board of Directors adopted the Safety Insurance Group, Inc. 2018 Long-Term Incentive Plan (“the 2018 Plan”), which was subsequently approved by our shareholders at the 2018 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The 2018 Plan enables the grant of stock awards, performance shares, cash based performance units, other stock based awards, stock options, stock appreciation rights, and stock unit awards, each of which may be granted separately of in tandem with other awards. Eligibility to participate includes officers, directors, employees and other individuals who provide bona fide services to the Company. The 2018 Plan supersedes the Company’s 2002 Management Omnibus Incentive Plan (“the 2002 Incentive Plan”).

The 2018 Plan established an initial pool of 350,000 shares of common stock available for issuance to our employees and other eligible participants.

The maximum number of shares of common stock between both the 2018 Plan and 2002 Incentive Plan with respect to which awards may be granted is 2,850,000. No further grants will be allowed under the 2002 Incentive Plan. At March 31, 2021, there were 164,908 shares available for future grant.

A summary of share based awards granted under the Incentive Plan during the three months ended March 31, 2021 is as follows:

Type of		Number of		Fair
Equity		Awards		Value per
Awarded	Effective Date	Granted		Share (1)	Vesting Terms
RS - Service	February 24, 2021	33,840	$	79.27	3 years, 30%-30%-40%
RS - Performance	February 24, 2021	29,422	$	79.27	3 years, cliff vesting (3)
RS	February 24, 2021	6,000	$	79.27	No vesting period (2)
RS - Performance	February 24, 2021	20,038	$	79.27	No vesting period (4)

(1) The fair value per share of the restricted stock grant is equal to the closing price of our common stock on the grant date.

(2) Board of Director members must maintain stock ownership equal to at least four times their annual retainer. This requirement must be met within five years of becoming a director.

(3) The shares represent performance-based restricted shares award. Vesting of these shares is dependent upon the attainment of pre-established performance objectives, and any difference between shares granted and shares earned at the end of the performance period will be reported at the conclusion of the performance period.

(4) The shares represent a true-up of previously awarded performance-based restricted share awards. The updated shares were calculated based on the attainment of pre-established performance objectives and granted under the 2002 Incentive Plan.

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Reinsurance

We reinsure with other insurance companies a portion of our potential liability under the policies we have underwritten, thereby protecting us against an unexpectedly large loss or a catastrophic occurrence that could produce large losses, primarily in our homeowners line of business. We are selective in choosing our reinsurers, seeking only those companies that we consider to be financially stable and adequately capitalized. In an effort to minimize exposure to the insolvency of a reinsurer, we continually evaluate and review the financial condition of our reinsurers. Most of our other reinsurers have an A.M. Best rating of “A+” (Superior) or “A” (Excellent).

We maintain reinsurance coverage to help lessen the effect of losses from catastrophic events, maintaining coverage during 2021 that protects us in the event of a "135-year storm" (that is, a storm of a severity expected to occur once in a 135-year period). We use various software products to measure our exposure to catastrophe losses and the probable maximum loss to us for catastrophe losses such as hurricanes. The models include estimates for our share of the catastrophe losses generated in the residual market for property insurance by the Massachusetts Property Insurance Underwriting Association ("FAIR Plan").

For 2021, we have purchased four layers of excess catastrophe reinsurance providing $615,000 of coverage for property losses in excess of $50,000 up to a maximum of $665,000. Our reinsurers’ co-participation is 50.0% of $50,000 for the 1st layer, 80.0% of $50,000 for the 2nd layer, 80.0% of $250,000 for the 3rd layer and 80.0% of $265,000 for the 4th layer.

We also have casualty excess of loss reinsurance for large casualty losses occurring in our automobile, homeowners, dwelling fire, business owners, and commercial package lines of business in excess of $2,000 up to a maximum of $10,000. We have property excess of loss reinsurance coverage for large property losses, with coverage in excess of $2,000 up to a maximum of $20,760, for our homeowners, business owners, and commercial package policies. In addition, we have liability excess of loss reinsurance for umbrella large losses in excess of $1,000 up to a maximum of $10,000. We also have various reinsurance agreements with Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Company, of which the primary contract is a quota share agreement under which we cede 100% of the premiums and losses for the equipment breakdown coverage under our business owner policies and commercial package policies.

We are a participant in CAR, a state-established body that runs the residual market reinsurance programs for commercial automobile insurance in Massachusetts under which premiums, expenses, losses and loss adjustment expenses on ceded business are shared by all insurers writing automobile insurance in Massachusetts. We also participate in the FAIR Plan in which premiums, expenses, losses and loss adjustment expenses on homeowners business that cannot be placed in the voluntary market are shared by all insurers writing homeowners insurance in Massachusetts. As a response to the exposure to catastrophe losses, on July 1, 2020, the FAIR Plan purchased $1,800,000 of catastrophe reinsurance for property losses with retention of $100,000.

At March 31, 2021, we had $126,989 recoverable from CAR comprising of loss adjustment expense reserves, unearned premiums and reinsurance recoverable.

Effects of Inflation

We do not believe that inflation has had a material effect on our consolidated results of operations, except insofar as inflation may affect interest rates.

Non-GAAP Measures

Management has included certain non-GAAP financial measures in presenting the Company’s results. Management believes that these non-GAAP measures better explain the Company’s results of operations and allow for a

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more complete understanding of the underlying trends in the Company’s business. These measures should not be viewed as a substitute for those determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). In addition, our definitions of these items may not be comparable to the definitions used by other companies.

Non-GAAP operating income and non-GAAP operating income per diluted share consist of our GAAP net income adjusted by the net realized gains (losses) on investments, changes in net unrealized gains on equity investments, credit loss benefit (expense) and taxes related thereto. Net income (loss) and earnings (loss) per diluted share are the GAAP financial measures that are most directly comparable to non-GAAP operating income and non-GAAP operating income per diluted share, respectively. A reconciliation of the GAAP financial measures to these non-GAAP measures is included in the financial highlights below.

Results of Operations

Three Months Ended March 31, 2021 Compared to Three Months Ended March 31, 2020

The following table shows certain of our selected financial results.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Direct written premiums	$	192,237	$	197,346
Net written premiums	$	184,218	$	188,958
Net earned premiums	$	192,850	$	197,895
Net investment income		11,532		10,710
Earnings from partnership investments		4,291		1,339
Net realized gains (losses) on investments		2,875		(631)
Change in net unrealized gains on equity investments		6,207		(29,988)
Credit loss benefit (expense)		181		(2,510)
Finance and other service income		3,972		4,229
Total revenue		221,908		181,044
Loss and loss adjustment expenses		111,495		120,746
Underwriting, operating and related expenses		65,024		63,082
Interest expense		129		47
Total expenses		176,648		183,875
Income (loss) before income taxes		45,260		(2,831)
Income tax expense (benefit)		9,086		(841)
Net income (loss)	$	36,174	$	(1,990)
Earnings (loss) per weighted average common share:
Basic	$	2.44	$	(0.13)
Diluted	$	2.42	$	(0.13)
Cash dividends paid per common share	$	0.90	$	0.90
Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Non-GAAP Operating Income:
Net income (loss)	$	36,174	$	(1,990)
Exclusions from net income (loss):
Net realized (gains) losses on investments		(2,875)		631
Change in net unrealized gains on equity investments		(6,207)		29,988
Credit loss (benefit) expense		(181)		2,510
Income tax expense (benefit) on exclusions from net income (loss)		1,945		(6,957)
Non-GAAP Operating income	$	28,856	$	24,182
Net income (loss) per diluted share	$	2.42	$	(0.13)
Exclusions from net income (loss):
Net realized (gains) losses on investments		(0.19)		0.04
Change in net unrealized gains on equity investments		(0.42)		1.95
Credit loss (benefit) expense		(0.01)		0.16
Income tax expense (benefit) on exclusions from net income (loss)		0.13		(0.45)
Non-GAAP Operating income per diluted share	$	1.93	$	1.57

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Direct Written Premiums. Direct written premiums for the three months ended March 31, 2021 decreased by $5,109, or 2.6%, to $192,237 from $197,346 for the comparable 2020 period. The decrease is primarily in our private passenger automobile line of business and is a result of a decrease in policy counts.

Net Written Premiums. Net written premiums for the three months ended March 31, 2021 decreased by $4,740, or 2.5%, to $184,218 from $188,958 for the comparable 2020 period.

Net Earned Premiums.  Net earned premiums for the three months ended March 31, 2021 decreased by $5,045, or 2.5%, to $192,850 from $197,895 for the comparable 2020 period.

The effect of reinsurance on net written and net earned premiums is presented in the following table.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2021		2020
Written Premiums
Direct	$	192,237	$	197,346
Assumed		7,331		7,978
Ceded		(15,350)		(16,366)
Net written premiums	$	184,218	$	188,958
Earned Premiums
Direct	$	201,055	$	210,151
Assumed		8,027		9,102
Ceded		(16,232)		(21,358)
Net earned premiums	$	192,850	$	197,895

Net Investment Income.  Net investment income for the three months ended March 31, 2021 increased by $822, or 7.7%, to $11,532 from $10,710 for the comparable 2020 period. The increase is a result of an increase in net effective annualized yield on the investment portfolio which was 3.2% for the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to 3.1% for the three months ended March 31, 2020. The investment portfolio’s duration was 3.3 years at March 31, 2021 compared to 3.2 years at December 31, 2020.

Earnings from Partnership Investments. Earnings from partnership investments was $4,291 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to $1,339 for the comparable 2020 period. The three months ended March 31, 2021 earnings reflects an increase in investment appreciation compared to the 2020 period.

Net Realized gains (losses) on Investments.  Net realized gains on investments was $2,875 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to net realized losses of $631 for the comparable 2020 period.

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The gross unrealized gains and losses on investments in fixed maturity securities, including redeemable preferred stocks that have characteristics of fixed maturities, equity securities, including interests in mutual funds, and other invested assets were as follows for the periods indicated:

	As of March 31, 2021
	Cost or		Allowance for		Gross Unrealized				Estimated
	Amortized		Expected Credit						Fair
	Cost		Losses		Gains		Losses  (3)		Value
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,820	$	—	$	33	$	—	$	1,853
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		196,353		—		5,922		(257)		202,018
Residential mortgage-backed securities (1)		227,684		—		10,047		(329)		237,402
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		127,214		—		5,670		(360)		132,524
Other asset-backed securities		75,767		—		661		(13)		76,415
Corporate and other securities		565,515		(873)		25,159		(2,832)		586,969
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		1,194,353		(873)		47,492		(3,791)		1,237,181
Short term investments		443		—		4		—		447
Equity securities (2)		173,054		—		44,227		(1,055)		216,226
Other invested assets (4)		52,148		—		—		—		52,148
Totals	$	1,419,998	$	(873)	$	91,723	$	(4,846)	$	1,506,002

(1)Residential mortgage-backed securities consists primarily of obligations of U.S. Government agencies including collateralized mortgage obligations issued, guaranteed and/or insured by the following issuers: Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB).

(2)Equity securities include common stock, preferred stock, mutual funds and interests in mutual funds held to fund the Company’s executive deferred compensation plan.

(3)Our investment portfolio included 379 securities in an unrealized loss position at March 31, 2021.

(4)Other invested assets are accounted for under the equity method which approximated fair value.

The composition of our fixed income security portfolio by Moody’s rating was as follows:

	As of March 31, 2021
		Estimated
		Fair Value	Percent
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. Government agencies	$	246,886	20.0	%
Aaa/Aa		319,456	25.8
A		261,153	21.1
Baa		211,433	17.1
Ba		67,857	5.5
B		95,655	7.7
Caa/Ca		5,704	0.5
Not rated		29,037	2.3
Total	$	1,237,181	100.0	%

Ratings are generally assigned upon the issuance of the securities and are subject to revision on the basis of ongoing evaluations.  Ratings in the table are as of the date indicated.

As of March 31, 2021, our portfolio of fixed maturity investments was comprised principally of investment grade corporate fixed maturity securities, U.S. government and agency securities, and asset-backed securities. The portion of our non-investment grade portfolio of fixed maturity investments is primarily comprised of variable rate secured and senior bank loans and high yield bonds.

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The following table illustrates the gross unrealized losses included in our investment portfolio and the fair value of those securities, aggregated by investment category. The table also illustrates the length of time that they have been in a continuous unrealized loss position as of March 31, 2021.

	As of March 31, 2021
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized
	Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses
U.S. Treasury securities	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		10,512		257		—		—		10,512		257
Residential mortgage-backed securities		35,083		329		9		—		35,092		329
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		10,715		360		—		—		10,715		360
Other asset-backed securities		3,641		13		—		—		3,641		13
Corporate and other securities		127,923		2,700		11,083		132		139,006		2,832
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		187,874		3,659		11,092		132		198,966		3,791
Equity securities		7,856		374		3,990		681		11,846		1,055
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	195,730	$	4,033	$	15,082	$	813	$	210,812	$	4,846

The Company’s analysis of its fixed maturity portfolio at March 31, 2021 concluded that $873 of unrealized losses were due to credit factors and were recorded as an allowance for expected credit losses at March 31, 2021. The Company concluded that outside of the securities that were recognized as credit impaired, the unrealized losses recorded on the fixed maturity portfolio at March 31, 2021 resulted from fluctuations in market interest rates and other temporary market conditions as opposed to fundamental changes in the credit quality of the issuers of such securities. Based upon the analysis performed, the Company’s decision to hold these securities, the Company’s current level of liquidity and our history of positive operating cash flows, management believes it is more likely than not that it will not be required to sell any of its securities before the anticipated recovery in the fair value to its amortized cost basis.

Specific qualitative analysis was also performed for securities appearing on our “Watch List,” if any.  Qualitative analysis considered such factors as the financial condition and the near term prospects of the issuer, whether the debtor is current on its contractually obligated interest and principal payments, changes to the rating of the security by a rating agency and the historical volatility of the fair value of the security.

For information regarding fair value measurements of our investment portfolio, refer to Item 1-Financial Statements, Note 5, Investments, of this Form 10-Q.

Finance and Other Service Income. Finance and other service income includes revenues from premium installment charges, which we recognize when earned, and other miscellaneous income and fees. Finance and other service income for the three months ended March 31, 2021 decreased by $257, or 6.1%, to $3,972 from $4,229 for the comparable 2020 period.

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses.  Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred for the three months ended March 31, 2021 decreased by $9,251, or 7.7%, to $111,495 from $120,746 for the comparable 2020 period. The decrease is primarily due to a decrease in frequency of claims, primarily in our private passenger automobile line of business as discussed in the Recent Trends and Events section of Item 2 – Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

Our GAAP loss ratio for the three months ended March 31, 2021 decreased to 57.8% from 61.0% for the comparable 2020 period. Our GAAP loss ratio excluding loss adjustment expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2021 was 44.7% compared to 51.7% for the comparable 2020 period. Total prior year favorable development included in the pre-tax results for the three months ended March 31, 2021 was $12,459 compared to $9,584 for the comparable 2020 period.

Underwriting, Operating and Related Expenses.  Underwriting, operating and related expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2021 increased by $1,942, or 3.1%, to $65,024 from $63,082 for the comparable 2020 period. Our GAAP expense ratio for the three months ended March 31, 2021 increased to 33.7% from 31.9% for the comparable

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2020 period. The increase is driven by costs associated with various system modernization in our claims, billing and underwriting areas and an increase in contingent commission expenses.

Interest Expense.  Interest expense was $129 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to $47 for the comparable 2020 period. The credit facility commitment fee included in interest expense was $19 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020.

Income Tax Expense (Benefit).  Our effective tax rate was 20.1% and 29.7% for the quarters ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The effective tax rate for the quarter ended March 31, 2021 was lower than the statutory rate primarily due to the effects of tax-exempt investment income and the impact of stock-based compensation. The effective tax rate for the quarter ended March 31, 2020 is higher than the statutory rate due to the impact of the change in unrealized gains on equity securities.

Net Income (Loss).   Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2021 was $36,174 compared to a net loss of $1,990 for the comparable 2020 period. The three months ended March 31, 2020 was affected by the market volatility associated with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a significant decrease in the change in unrealized gains on equity investments.

Non-GAAP Operating Income. Non-GAAP operating income as defined above was $28,856 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to $24,182 for the comparable 2020 period. The increase in Non-GAAP operating income was primarily the result of a decrease in loss and loss adjustment expenses compared to the prior period.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

As a holding company, Safety’s assets consist primarily of the stock of our direct and indirect subsidiaries. Our principal source of funds to meet our obligations and pay dividends to shareholders, therefore, is dividends and other permitted payments from our subsidiaries, principally Safety Insurance. Safety is the borrower under our credit facility.

Safety Insurance’s sources of funds primarily include premiums received, investment income, and proceeds from sales and redemptions of investments. Safety Insurance’s principal uses of cash are the payment of claims, operating expenses and taxes, the purchase of investments, and the payment of dividends to Safety.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $12,523 during the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to net cash used for operating activities of $28,515 during the three months ended March 31, 2020. Our operations typically generate positive cash flows from operations as most premiums are received in advance of the time when claim and benefit payments are required. Net cash used for operating activities during the three months ended March 31, 2020 was the result of the timing of expense payments and changes in other liabilities which is driven by the reclassification of cash to offset outstanding claims checks. Positive operating cash flows are expected in the future to meet our liquidity requirements.

Net cash used for investing activities was $814 during the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to net cash provided by investing activities of $20,296 during the three months ended March 31, 2020. Fixed maturities, equity securities, and other invested assets purchased were $80,439 for the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to $47,813 for the comparable prior year period. Proceeds from maturities, redemptions, calls and sales, of securities were $82,498 during the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to $71,086 for the comparable prior year period.

Net cash used for financing activities was $13,915 during the three months ended March 31, 2021 compared to net cash provided by financing activities of $5,379 during the three months ended March 31, 2020. The net cash used for financing activities during the three months ended March 31, 2021 consisted of dividend payments to shareholders. The net cash provided by financing activities during the three months ended March 31, 2020 was primarily driven by proceeds from the FHLB-Boston loan. On March 17, 2020, the Company borrowed $30,000 from the FHLB-Boston for a term of five years, bearing interest at a rate of 1.42%. Interest is payable monthly and the principal is due on the

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maturity date of March 17, 2025 but may be prepaid in whole or in part by the Company in advance. The proceeds from this borrowing were partially offset by dividend payments to shareholders and share buybacks during the three months ended March 31, 2020.

The Insurance Subsidiaries maintain a high degree of liquidity within their respective investment portfolios in fixed maturity and equity securities. We do not anticipate the need to sell these securities to meet the Insurance Subsidiaries cash requirements. We expect the Insurance Subsidiaries to generate sufficient operating cash to meet all short-term and long-term cash requirements. However, there can be no assurance that unforeseen business needs or other items will not occur causing us to have to sell securities before their values fully recover; thereby causing us to recognize additional impairment charges in that time period.

Credit Facility

For information regarding our Credit Facility, please refer to Item 1- Financial Statements, Note 9, Debt, of this Form 10-Q.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

For information regarding Recent Accounting Pronouncements, please refer to Item 1- Financial Statements, Note 2, Recent Accounting Pronouncements, of this Form 10-Q.

Regulatory Matters

Our Insurance Subsidiaries are subject to various regulatory restrictions that limit the maximum amount of dividends available to be paid to their parent without prior approval of the Commissioner of the Division of Insurance of Massachusetts. The Massachusetts statute limits the dividends an insurer may pay in any twelve-month period, without the prior permission of the Commissioner, to the greater of (i) 10% of the insurer’s surplus as of the preceding December 31 or (ii) the insurer’s net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31, in each case determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices. Our insurance company subsidiaries may not declare an “extraordinary dividend” (defined as any dividend or distribution that, together with other distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the limits established by Massachusetts statute) until thirty days after the Commissioner has received notice of the intended dividend and has not objected. As historically administered by the Commissioner, this provision requires the Commissioner’s prior approval of an extraordinary dividend. Under Massachusetts law, an insurer may pay cash dividends only from its unassigned funds, also known as earned surplus, and the insurer’s remaining surplus must be both reasonable in relation to its outstanding liabilities and adequate to its financial needs. At December 31, 2020, the statutory surplus of Safety Insurance was $754,066, and its statutory net income for 2020 was $121,446. As a result, a maximum of $121,446 is available in 2021 for such dividends without prior approval of the Commissioner. As a result of this Massachusetts statute, the Insurance Subsidiaries had restricted net assets in the amount of $632,620 at December 31, 2020. During the three months ended March 31, 2021, Safety Insurance paid dividends to Safety of $12,408.

The maximum dividend permitted by law is not indicative of an insurer’s actual ability to pay dividends, which may be constrained by business and regulatory considerations, such as the impact of dividends on surplus, which could affect an insurer’s ratings or competitive position, the amount of premiums that can be written and the ability to pay future dividends.

Since the initial public offering of its common stock in November 2002, the Company has paid regular quarterly dividends to shareholders of its common stock. Quarterly dividends paid during 2021 were as follows:

					Total
Declaration	Record	Payment	Dividend per		Dividends Paid
Date	Date	Date	Common Share		and Accrued
February 16, 2021	March 5, 2021	March 15, 2021	$	0.90	$	13,459

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On May 5, 2021, our Board approved and declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.90 per share which will be paid on June 15, 2021 to shareholders of record on June 1, 2021. We plan to continue to declare and pay quarterly cash dividends in 2021, depending on our financial position and the regularity of our cash flows.

On August 3, 2007, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $30,000 of the Company’s outstanding common shares.  As of March 31, 2021, the Board of Directors had cumulatively authorized increases to the existing share repurchase program of up to $150,000 of its outstanding common shares.  Under the program, the Company may repurchase shares of its common stock for cash in public or private transactions, in the open market or otherwise.  The timing of such repurchases and actual number of shares repurchased will depend on a variety of factors including price, market conditions and applicable regulatory and corporate requirements.  The program does not require us to repurchase any specific number of shares and may be modified, suspended or terminated at any time without prior notice. As of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, the Company had purchased 2,831,168 shares of common stock at a cost of $123,834.

Management believes that the current level of cash flow from operations provides us with sufficient liquidity to meet our operating needs over the next 12 months. We expect to be able to continue to meet our operating needs after the next 12 months from internally generated funds. Since our ability to meet our obligations in the long term (beyond such twelve-month period) is dependent upon such factors as market changes, insurance regulatory changes and economic conditions, no assurance can be given that the available net cash flow will be sufficient to meet our operating needs. We expect that we would need to borrow or issue capital stock if we needed additional funds, for example, to pay for an acquisition or a significant expansion of our operations. There can be no assurance that sufficient funds for any of the foregoing purposes would be available to us at such time.

Risk-Based Capital Requirements

The NAIC has adopted a formula and model law to implement risk-based capital requirements for most property and casualty insurance companies, which are designed to determine minimum capital requirements and to raise the level of protection that statutory surplus provides for policyholder obligations. Under Massachusetts law, insurers having less total adjusted capital than that required by the risk-based capital calculation will be subject to varying degrees of regulatory action, depending on the level of capital inadequacy. The risk-based capital law provides for four levels of regulatory action. The extent of regulatory intervention and action increases as the level of total adjusted capital to risk-based capital falls. As of December 31, 2020, the Insurance Subsidiaries had total adjusted capital of $754,066, which is in excess of amounts requiring company or regulatory action at any prescribed risk-based capital action level. Minimum statutory capital and surplus, or company action level risk-based capital, was $197,193 at December 31, 2020.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

We have no material obligations under a guarantee contract meeting the characteristics identified in ASC 460, Guarantees.  We have no material retained or contingent interests in assets transferred to an unconsolidated entity. We have no material obligations, including contingent obligations, under contracts that would be accounted for as derivative instruments. We have no obligations, including contingent obligations, arising out of a variable interest in an unconsolidated entity held by, and material to, us, where such entity provides financing, liquidity, market risk or credit risk support to, or engages in leasing, hedging or research and development services with us. We have no direct investments in real estate and no holdings of mortgages secured by commercial real estate. Accordingly, we have no material off-balance sheet arrangements.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

Significant periods of time can elapse between the occurrence of an insured loss, the reporting to us of that loss and our final payment of that loss. To recognize liabilities for unpaid losses, we establish reserves as balance sheet liabilities. Our reserves represent estimates of amounts needed to pay reported and estimated losses incurred but not yet

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reported (“IBNR”) and the expenses of investigating and paying those losses, or loss adjustment expenses. Every quarter, we review our previously established reserves and adjust them, if necessary.

When a claim is reported, claims personnel establish a “case reserve” for the estimated amount of the ultimate payment. The amount of the reserve is primarily based upon an evaluation of the type of claim involved, the circumstances surrounding each claim and the policy provisions relating to the loss. The estimate reflects the informed judgment of such personnel based on general insurance reserving practices and on the experience and knowledge of the claims person. During the loss adjustment period, these estimates are revised as deemed necessary by our claims department based on subsequent developments and periodic reviews of the cases. When a claim is closed with or without a payment, the difference between the case reserve and the settlement amount creates a reserve deficiency if the payment exceeds the case reserve or a reserve redundancy if the payment is less than the case reserve.

In accordance with industry practice, we also maintain reserves for IBNR. IBNR reserves are determined in accordance with commonly accepted actuarial reserving techniques on the basis of our historical information and experience. We review and make adjustments to incurred but not yet reported reserves quarterly. In addition, IBNR reserves can also be expressed as the total loss reserves required less the case reserves on reported claims.

When reviewing reserves, we analyze historical data and estimate the impact of various loss development factors, such as our historical loss experience and that of the industry, trends in claims frequency and severity, our mix of business, our claims processing procedures, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, and changes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. A change in any of these factors from the assumption implicit in our estimate can cause our actual loss experience to be better or worse than our reserves, and the difference can be material. There is no precise method, however, for evaluating the impact of any specific factor on the adequacy of reserves, because the eventual development of reserves is affected by many factors.

In estimating all our loss reserves, we follow the guidance prescribed by Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”) 944, Financial Services – Insurance.

Management determines our loss and LAE reserves estimate based upon the analysis of our actuaries. A reasonable estimate is derived by selecting a point estimate within a range of indications as calculated by our actuaries using generally accepted actuarial techniques. The key assumption in most actuarial analysis is that past patterns of frequency and severity will repeat in the future, unless a significant change in the factors described above takes place. Our key factors and resulting assumptions are the ultimate frequency and severity of claims, based upon the most recent ten years of claims reported to the Company, and the data CAR reports to us to calculate our share of the residual market, as of the date of the applicable balance sheet. For each accident year and each coverage within a line of business our actuaries calculate the ultimate losses incurred. Our total reserves are the difference between the ultimate losses incurred and the cumulative loss and loss adjustment payments made to date. Our IBNR reserves are calculated as the difference between our total reserves and the outstanding case reserves at the end of the accounting period. To determine ultimate losses, our actuaries calculate a range of indications and select a point estimation using such actuarial techniques as:

● Paid Loss Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of historic paid loss trends. This method tends to be used on short tail lines such as automobile physical damage.

● Incurred Loss Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of historic incurred loss trends. This method tends to be used on long tail lines of business such as automobile liability and homeowner’s liability.

● Bornhuetter-Ferguson Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of an expected amount of IBNR, which is added to current incurred losses or paid losses.  This method tends to be used on small, immature, or volatile lines of business, such as our BOP and umbrella lines of business.

● Bodily Injury Code Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates for our private passenger and commercial automobile bodily injury coverage based upon extrapolations of the historic number of accidents and the historic number of bodily injury claims per accident. Projected ultimate bodily injury claims are then segregated into expected claims by type of injury (e.g. soft tissue injury vs. hard tissue injury) based on past

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experience.  An ultimate severity, or average paid loss amounts, is estimated based upon extrapolating historic trends. Projected ultimate loss estimates using this method are the aggregate of estimated losses by injury type.

Such techniques assume that past experience, adjusted for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, is an appropriate basis for predicting our ultimate losses, total reserves, and resulting IBNR reserves. It is possible that the final outcome may fall above or below these amounts as a result of a number of factors, including immature data, sparse data, or significant growth in a line of business. Using these methodologies our actuaries established a range of reasonably possible estimations for net reserves of approximately $438,017 to $488,601 as of March 31, 2021. In general, the low and high values of the ranges represent reasonable minimum and maximum values of the indications based on the techniques described above. Our selected point estimate of net loss and LAE reserves based upon the analysis of our actuaries was $469,088 as of March 31, 2021.

The following table presents the point estimation of the recorded reserves and the range of estimations by line of business for net loss and LAE reserves as of March 31, 2021.

		As of March 31, 2021
Line of Business	Low		Recorded		High
Private passenger automobile	$	167,590	$	179,598	$	181,798
Commercial automobile		97,954		104,356		106,663
Homeowners		98,183		101,741		104,667
All other		74,290		83,393		95,473
Total	$	438,017	$	469,088	$	488,601

The following table presents our total net reserves and the corresponding case reserves and IBNR reserves for each line of business as of March 31, 2021.

		As of March 31, 2021
Line of Business	Case		IBNR		Total
Private passenger automobile	$	208,938	$	(29,347)	$	179,591
CAR assumed private passenger auto		1		7		8
Commercial automobile		58,831		12,664		71,495
CAR assumed commercial automobile		18,670		14,190		32,860
Homeowners		85,881		5,654		91,535
FAIR Plan assumed homeowners		3,465		6,741		10,206
All other		43,973		39,420		83,393
Total net reserves for losses and LAE	$	419,759	$	49,329	$	469,088

At March 31, 2021, our total IBNR reserves for our private passenger automobile line of business was comprised of ($43,867) related to estimated ultimate decreases in the case reserves, including anticipated recoveries (i.e. salvage and subrogation), and $14,520 related to our estimation for not yet reported losses.

Our IBNR reserves consist of our estimate of the total loss reserves required less our case reserves.  The IBNR reserves for CAR assumed commercial automobile business are 43.2% of our total reserves for CAR assumed commercial automobile business as of March 31, 2021, due to the reporting delays in the information we receive from CAR, as described further in the section on Residual Market Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves.  Our IBNR reserves for FAIR Plan assumed homeowners are 66.0% of our total reserves for FAIR Plan assumed homeowners at March 31, 2021, due to similar reporting delays in the information we receive from FAIR Plan.

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The following table presents information by line of business for our total net reserves and the corresponding retained (i.e. direct less ceded) reserves and assumed reserves as of March 31, 2021.

		As of March 31, 2021
Line of Business		Retained		Assumed		Net
Private passenger automobile	$	179,591
CAR assumed private passenger automobile			$	8
Net private passenger automobile					$	179,599
Commercial automobile		71,495
CAR assumed commercial automobile				32,860
Net commercial automobile						104,355
Homeowners		91,535
FAIR Plan assumed homeowners				10,206
Net homeowners						101,741
All other		83,393		—		83,393
Total net reserves for losses and LAE	$	426,014	$	43,074	$	469,088

Residual Market Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

We are a participant in CAR, the FAIR Plan and other various residual markets and assume a portion of losses and LAE on business ceded by the industry participants to the residual markets.  We estimate reserves for assumed losses and LAE that have not yet been reported to us by the residual markets.  Our estimations are based upon the same factors we use for our own reserves, plus additional factors due to the nature of and the information we receive.

Residual market deficits, consists of premium ceded to the various residual markets less losses and LAE, and is allocated among insurance companies based on a various formulas (the “Participation Ratio”) that takes into consideration a company’s voluntary market share.

Because of the lag in the various residual market estimations, and in order to try to validate to the extent possible the information provided, we must try to estimate the effects of the actions of our competitors in order to establish our Participation Ratio.

Although we rely to a significant extent in setting our reserves on the information the various residual markets provide, we are cautious in our use of that information, because of the delays in receiving data from the various residual markets.  As a result, we have to estimate our Participation Ratio and these reserves are subject to significant judgments and estimates.

Sensitivity Analysis

Establishment of appropriate reserves is an inherently uncertain process. There can be no certainty that currently established reserves based on our key assumptions regarding frequency and severity in our lines of business, or our assumptions regarding our share of the CAR loss will prove adequate in light of subsequent actual experience. To the extent that reserves are inadequate and are strengthened, the amount of such increase is treated as a charge to earnings in the period that the deficiency is recognized. To the extent that reserves are redundant and are released, the amount of the release is a credit to earnings in the period the redundancy is recognized.  For the three months ended March 31, 2021, a 1 percentage-point change in the loss and LAE ratio would result in a change in reserves of $1,929. Each 1 percentage-point change in the loss and loss expense ratio would have had a $1,523 effect on net income, or $0.10 per diluted share.

Our assumptions consider that past experience, adjusted for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, are an appropriate basis for establishing our reserves. Our individual key assumptions could each have a reasonable possible range of plus or minus 5 percentage-points for each estimation, although there is no guarantee that our assumptions will not have more than a 5 percentage point variation.  The following sensitivity tables present information for each of our primary lines of business on the effect each 1 percentage-point change in each of our key assumptions on unpaid frequency and severity could have on our retained (i.e., direct minus ceded) loss and LAE reserves and net income for the three months ended March 31, 2021. In evaluating the information in the table, it should

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be noted that a 1 percentage-point change in a single assumption would change estimated reserves by 1 percentage-point. A 1 percentage-point change in both our key assumptions would change estimated reserves within a range of plus or minus 2 percentage-points.

	-1 Percent		No		+1 Percent
	Change in		Change in		Change in
	Frequency		Frequency		Frequency
Private passenger automobile retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves	$	(3,592)	$	(1,796)	$	—
Estimated increase in net income		2,838		1,419		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(1,796)		—		1,796
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		1,419		—		(1,419)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		1,796		3,592
Estimated decrease in net income		—		(1,419)		(2,838)
Commercial automobile retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves		(1,430)		(715)		—
Estimated increase in net income		1,130		565		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(715)		—		715
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		565		—		(565)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		715		1,430
Estimated decrease in net income		—		(565)		(1,130)
Homeowners retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves		(1,831)		(915)		—
Estimated increase in net income		1,446		723		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(915)		—		915
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		723		—		(723)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		915		1,831
Estimated decrease in net income		—		(723)		(1,446)
All other retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves		(1,668)		(834)		—
Estimated increase in net income		1,318		659		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(834)		—		834
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		659		—		(659)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		834		1,668
Estimated decrease in net income		—		(659)		(1,318)

Our estimated share of CAR loss and LAE reserves is based on assumptions about our Participation Ratio, the size of CAR, and the resulting deficit (similar assumptions apply with respect to the FAIR Plan).  Our assumptions consider that past experience, adjusted for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, is an appropriate basis for establishing our CAR reserves. Each of our assumptions could have a reasonably possible range of plus or minus 5 percentage-points for each estimation.

The following sensitivity table presents information of the effect each 1 percentage-point change in our assumptions on our share of reserves for CAR and other residual markets could have on our assumed loss and LAE reserves and net income for the three months ended March 31, 2021. In evaluating the information in the table, it should be noted that a 1 percentage-point change in our assumptions would change estimated reserves by 1 percentage-point.

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	-1 Percent		+1 Percent
	Change in		Change in
	Estimation		Estimation
CAR assumed private passenger automobile
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves	$	—	$	—
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		—		—
CAR assumed commercial automobile
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(329)		329
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		260		(260)
FAIR Plan assumed homeowners
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(102)		102
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		81		(81)

Reserve Development Summary

The changes we have recorded in our reserves in the past illustrate the uncertainty of estimating reserves. Our prior year reserves decreased by $12,459 and $9,584 during the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.

The following table presents a comparison of prior year development of our net reserves for losses and LAE for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020. Each accident year represents all claims for an annual accounting period in which loss events occurred, regardless of when the losses are actually reported, booked or paid.  Our financial statements reflect the aggregate results of the current and all prior accident years.

	Three Months Ended March 31,
Accident Year	2021		2020
2011 & prior	$	(61)	$	(225)
2012		(347)		(396)
2013		(134)		1
2014		(89)		(525)
2015		(490)		(875)
2016		70		(2,442)
2017		(1,732)		(1,949)
2018		(2,637)		(2,238)
2019		(4,353)		(935)
2020		(2,686)		—
All prior years	$	(12,459)	$	(9,584)

The decreases in prior years’ reserves during the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020 resulted from re-estimations of prior year ultimate loss and LAE liabilities. The 2021 decrease is composed of reductions of $3,872 in our retained private passenger automobile reserves, $723 in our retained commercial automobile reserves, $3,492 in our retained homeowners reserves and $2,404 our retained other lines reserves. The 2020 decrease is primarily composed of reductions of $3,950 in our retained private passenger automobile reserves, $755 in our retained commercial automobile reserves, $3,864 in our retained homeowners reserves and $675 in our retained other lines reserves.

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The following table presents information by line of business for prior year development of our net reserves for losses March 31, 2021.

	Private Passenger		Commercial
Accident Year	Automobile		Automobile		Homeowners		All Other		Total
2011 & prior	$	(15)	$	(2)	$	(1)	$	(43)	$	(61)
2012		(158)		—		—		(189)		(347)
2013		(1)		(1)		—		(132)		(134)
2014		11		124		(1)		(223)		(89)
2015		19		222		(352)		(379)		(490)
2016		11		(51)		(12)		122		70
2017		(38)		(616)		(659)		(419)		(1,732)
2018		(781)		(621)		(655)		(580)		(2,637)
2019		(1,546)		(488)		(1,855)		(464)		(4,353)
2020		(1,374)		(873)		(342)		(97)		(2,686)
All prior years	$	(3,872)	$	(2,306)	$	(3,877)	$	(2,404)	$	(12,459)

To further clarify the effects of changes in our reserve estimates for CAR and other residual markets, the next two tables break out the information in the table above by source of the business (i.e., non-residual market vs. residual market).

The following table presents information by line of business for prior year development of retained reserves for losses and LAE for the three months ended March 31, 2021 that is, all our reserves except for business ceded or assumed from CAR and other residual markets.

		Retained		Retained
		Private Passenger		Commercial		Retained		Retained
Accident Year		Automobile		Automobile		Homeowners		All Other		Total
2011 & prior	$	(15)	$	(2)	$	(1)	$	(43)	$	(61)
2012		(158)		—		—		(189)		(347)
2013		(1)		(1)		—		(132)		(134)
2014		11		124		(1)		(223)		(89)
2015		19		222		(352)		(379)		(490)
2016		11		(11)		9		122		131
2017		(38)		(421)		(616)		(419)		(1,494)
2018		(781)		(388)		(608)		(580)		(2,357)
2019		(1,546)		(34)		(1,695)		(464)		(3,739)
2020		(1,374)		(212)		(228)		(97)		(1,911)
All prior years	$	(3,872)	$	(723)	$	(3,492)	$	(2,404)	$	(10,491)

The following table presents information by line of business for prior year development of reserves assumed from residual markets for losses and LAE for the three months ended March 31, 2021.

		CAR Assumed		CAR Assumed
		Private Passenger		Commercial		FAIR Plan
Accident Year		Automobile		Automobile		Homeowners		Total
2011 & prior	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
2012		—		—		—		—
2013		—		—		—		—
2014		—		—		—		—
2015		—		—		—		—
2016		—		(40)		(21)		(61)
2017		—		(195)		(43)		(238)
2018		—		(233)		(47)		(280)
2019		—		(454)		(160)		(614)
2020		—		(661)		(114)		(775)
All prior years	$	—	$	(1,583)	$	(385)	$	(1,968)

The improved retained private passenger and commercial automobile results were primarily due to fewer IBNR claims than previously estimated and better than previously estimated severity on our established bodily injury and

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property damage case reserves. Our retained other than auto and homeowners line of business prior year reserves decreased, due primarily to fewer IBNR claims than previously estimated.

For further information, see “Results of Operations: Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses.”

Investment Impairments.

The Company uses a systematic methodology to evaluate declines in fair values below cost or amortized cost of our investments. Some of the factors considered in assessing impairment of fixed maturities due to credit losses include the extent to which the fair value is less than amortized cost, the financial condition of and the near and long-term prospects of the issuer, whether the debtor is current on its contractually obligated interest and principal payments, changes to the rating of the security by a rating agency, the historical volatility of the fair value of the security and whether it is more like than not that the Company will be required to sell the investment prior to an anticipated recovery in value.  This methodology ensures that we evaluate available evidence concerning any declines in a disciplined manner.

For fixed maturities that the Company does not intend to sell or for which it is more likely than not that the Company would not be required to sell before an anticipated recovery in value, the Company separates the expected credit loss component of the impairment from the amount related to all other factors. The expected credit loss component is recognized as an allowance for expected credit losses. The allowance is adjusted for any additional credit losses and subsequent recoveries, which are booked in income as either credit loss expense or credit loss benefit, respectively. Upon recognizing a credit loss, the cost basis is not adjusted. The impairment related to all other factors (non-credit factors) is reported in other comprehensive income.

For further information, see “Results of Operations: Net Impairment Losses on Investments.”

Forward-Looking Statements

Forward-looking statements might include one or more of the following, among others:

● Projections of revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure or other financial items;

● Descriptions of plans or objectives of management for future operations, products or services;

● Forecasts of future economic performance, liquidity, need for funding and income;

● The impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions, including the Company's assessment of the vulnerability of certain categories of investments due to the economic disruptions associated with COVID-19;

● Legal and regulatory commentary

● Descriptions of assumptions underlying or relating to any of the foregoing; and

● Future performance of credit markets.

Forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. They often include words such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “estimate,” “aim,” “projects,” or words of similar meaning and expressions that indicate future events and trends, or future or conditional verbs such as “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” or “may.” All statements that address expectations or projections about the future, including statements about the Company’s strategy for growth, product development, market position, expenditures and financial results, are forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. There are a number of factors, many of which are beyond our control, that could cause actual future conditions, events, results or trends to differ significantly and/or materially from historical results or those projected in the forward-looking statements. These factors include but are not limited to:

● The competitive nature of our industry and the possible adverse effects of such competition;

● Conditions for business operations and restrictive regulations in Massachusetts;

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● The possibility of losses due to claims resulting from severe weather;

● The possibility that the Commissioner may approve future Rule changes that change the operation of the residual market;

● The possibility that existing insurance-related laws and regulations will become further restrictive in the future;

● Our possible need for and availability of additional financing, and our dependence on strategic relationships, among others;

● The effects of emerging claim and coverage issues on the Company’s business are uncertain, and court decisions or legislative or regulatory changes that take place after the Company issues its policies, including those taken in response to COVID-19 (such as requiring insurers to cover business interruption claims irrespective of terms or other conditions included in the policies that would otherwise preclude coverage), can result in an unexpected increase in the number of claims and have a material adverse impact on the Company's results of operations;

● The possibility that civil litigation and/or state insurance regulators may require additional premium relief payouts related to COVID-19;

● The impact of COVID-19 and related risks, including on the Company's employees, agents or other key partners, could materially affect the Company's results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity; and

● Other risks and factors identified from time to time in our reports filed with the SEC.  Refer to Part I, Item 1A — Risk Factors of our 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020.

Some other factors, such as market, operational, liquidity, interest rate, equity and other risks, are described elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Factors relating to the regulation and supervision of our Company are also described or incorporated in this report. There are other factors besides those described or incorporated in this report that could cause actual conditions, events or results to differ from those in the forward-looking statements.

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. We do not undertake any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made.

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Item 3.     Quantitative and Qualitative Information about Market Risk (Dollars in thousands)

Market Risk. Market risk is the risk that we will incur losses due to adverse changes in market rates and prices. We have exposure to market risk through our investment activities and our financing activities. Our primary market risk exposure is to changes in interest rates. We use both fixed and variable rate debt as sources of financing. We have not entered, and do not plan to enter, into any derivative financial instruments for trading or speculative purposes.

Interest Rate Risk. Interest rate risk is the risk that we will incur economic losses due to adverse changes in interest rates. Our exposure to interest rate changes primarily results from our significant holdings of fixed rate investments and from our financing activities. Our fixed maturity investments include U.S. and foreign government bonds, securities issued by government agencies, obligations of state and local governments and governmental authorities, corporate bonds and asset-backed securities, most of which are exposed to changes in prevailing interest rates.

We manage our exposure to risks associated with interest rate fluctuations through active review of our investment portfolio by our management and Board and consultation with third-party financial advisors. As a general matter, we do not attempt to match the durations of our assets with the durations of our liabilities, and the majority of our liabilities are “short tail.”  Our goal is to maximize the total after-tax return on all of our investments. An important strategy that we employ to achieve this goal is to try to hold enough in cash and short-term investments in order to avoid liquidating longer-term investments to pay claims.

Based upon the results of interest rate sensitivity analysis, the following table shows the interest rate risk of our investments in fixed maturities, measured in terms of fair value (which is equal to the carrying value for all our fixed maturity securities).

		-100 Basis				+100 Basis
		Point Change		No Change		Point Change
As of March 31, 2021
Estimated fair value	$	1,275,685	$	1,237,181	$	1,198,229
Estimated increase (decrease) in fair value	$	38,504	$	—	$	(38,952)

With respect to floating rate debt, we are exposed to the effects of changes in prevailing interest rates. At March 31, 2021, we had no debt outstanding under our credit facility. Assuming the full utilization of our current available credit facility, a 2.0% increase in the prevailing interest rate on our variable rate debt would result in interest expense increasing approximately $600 for 2021, assuming that all of such debt is outstanding for the entire year.

In addition, in the current market environment, our investments can also contain liquidity risks.

Equity Risk. Equity risk is the risk that we will incur economic losses due to adverse changes in equity prices. Our exposure to changes in equity prices results from our holdings of common stock and mutual funds held to fund the executive deferred compensation plan. We continuously evaluate market conditions and we expect in the future to purchase additional equity securities. We principally manage equity price risk through industry and issuer diversification and asset allocation techniques.

Item 4.     Controls and Procedures

Conclusion Regarding the Effectiveness of Disclosure Controls and Procedures

Under the supervision and with the participation of our management, including our Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”), we evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of our disclosure controls and procedures [as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)] as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, our CEO and CFO have concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures are adequate and effective and ensure that all information required to be disclosed by us in the reports that we file or submit under the Exchange Act is recorded,

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processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the SEC’s rules and that information required to be disclosed in such reports is accumulated and communicated to management, including our CEO and CFO, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosures.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting

There have been no changes in our internal control over financial reporting that occurred during our last fiscal quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

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Part II. OTHER INFORMATION

Item 1.     Legal Proceedings - Please see “Item 1 — Financial Statements - Note 8, Commitments and Contingencies.”

Item 1A.  Risk Factors

There have been no subsequent material changes from the risk factors previously disclosed in the Company’s 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Item 2.   Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds (Dollars in thousands)

On August 3, 2007, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $30,000 of the Company’s outstanding common shares.  The Board of Directors had cumulatively authorized increases to the existing share repurchase program of up to $150,000 of its outstanding common shares.  Under the program, the Company may repurchase shares of its common stock for cash in public or private transactions, in the open market or otherwise.  The timing of such repurchases and actual number of shares repurchased will depend on a variety of factors including price, market conditions and applicable regulatory and corporate requirements.  The program does not require the Company to repurchase any specific number of shares and it may be modified, suspended or terminated at any time without prior notice. No share repurchases were made by the Company during the three months ended March 31, 2021.

Item 3.   Defaults upon Senior Securities - None.

Item 4.   Mine Safety Disclosures — None.

Item 5.  Other Information - None.

Item 6.  Exhibits - The exhibits are contained herein as listed in the Exhibit Index.

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SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit
Number	Description
11.0	Statement re: Computation of Per Share Earnings (1)
31.1	CEO Certification Pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a), as Adopted Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)
31.2	CFO Certification Pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a), as Adopted Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)
32.1	CEO Certification Pursuant to U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)
32.2	CFO Certification Pursuant to U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)
101.INS	Inline XBRL Instance Document(2)
101.SCH	Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema(2)
101.CAL	Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase(2)
101.DEF	Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase(2)
101.LAB	Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase(2)
101.PRE	Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase(2)
104	The cover page from this Current Report on form 10-Q, formatted in Inline XBRL(2)

(1) Not included herein as the information is included as part of this Form 10-Q, Item 1 - Financial Statements, Note 3, earnings per Weighted Average Common Share.

(2) Included herein.

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SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

May 7, 2021	SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC.  (Registrant)
	By:	/s/ CHRISTOPHER T. WHITFORD
		Christopher T. Whitford
		Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Secretary and Principal Accounting Officer

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