Based on a closing price of $19.93 on June 28th and assuming its current monthly distribution of $0.112 does not change, the annualized yield on market price of Fund shares is 6.7%. Of course, there can be no guarantee that the Fund’s dividend will not change based on market conditions.
U.S. Economic and Credit Outlook
The U.S. economy expanded rapidly in the first quarter of 2019. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) rose 3.1% in Q1, compared to a more-modest 2.2% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2018. The composition of growth was weaker than in recent quarters, however, as a narrower trade deficit and faster inventory accumulation accounted for just under half of Q1 growth. Economists expect 1.8% real GDP growth in Q2 and 2.5% in 2019 overall, slowing to 1.8% in 2020. Those forecasts are near the low end of our expectations for 2.5-3.0% growth (Q4/Q4) in 2019 and 2.0-2.5% in 2020, which assume the U.S. and China reach a trade agreement sometime this year.
While each of those forecasts implies some slowdown from 3.0% real GDP growth in 2018, we remain more optimistic than most for a few reasons. First, we think there is still some “gas in the tank” from tax reform that will drive business investment higher. That should support rising labor productivity and help offset a slower pace of hiring and higher wages as the labor market tightens. Second, higher wages should support continued strength in personal income, even with slower job growth. Third, the immigration situation has become so untenable that we may actually see some policy reform that helps alleviate some labor shortages and benefits economic growth. Finally, financial conditions are substantially easier than they were at the end of 2018.
So far in 2019 the labor market has posted solid, if uneven, growth. Payroll jobs rose by an average of 164,000 jobs per month through May 2019, and employment is up 1.6% from a year ago. Job gains continue to outpace population growth, and the labor market has tightened. Additionally, wage gains have accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising 3.1% year-over-year (YoY) in May compared to 2.9% at the same time last year. We expect wages will continue to accelerate gradually and support personal income even as employment growth slows.
Over the 12 months ending in May, nominal personal income and disposable income rose 4.1% and 3.9% YoY, respectively. Lower personal income tax rates in 2018 contributed to strong growth last year in disposable personal income, which is reported on an after-tax basis. Because tax rates did not fall again this year, we expect a slower pace of growth in disposable income, and we are seeing that. Nonetheless, solid job growth and rising wages have boosted wage and salary income, and overall income growth remains relatively strong. In turn, consumer spending should remain a bright spot, and residential investment may be bottoming out after contracting in 2018.
Despite mostly solid economic growth, inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. For 12 months ending in May, the consumer price index (CPI) was up 1.8% overall and 2.0% excluding food and energy. The PCE deflator was up 1.5% overall and 1.6% excluding food and energy over 12 months ending in May – 0.8% and 0.4% below year-ago levels, respectively. Tariffs should temporarily boost inflation, but lower energy prices push against that, and underlying inflation pressure (other than rising wages) is muted.