Exhibit 99.3
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Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited April 29, 2010 Q1 2010 Earnings Conference Call AHL: NYSE |
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Safe Harbor Disclosure This slide presentation is for information purposes only. It should be read in conjunction with our financial supplement posted on our website on the Investor Relations page and with other documents filed or to be filed shortly by Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (the "Company" or "Aspen") with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Non-GAAP Financial Measures In presenting Aspen's results, management has included and discussed certain "non-GAAP financial measures", as such term is defined in Regulation G. Management believes that these non-GAAP measures, which may be defined differently by other companies, better explain Aspen's results of operations in a manner that allows for a more complete understanding of the underlying trends in Aspen's business. However, these measures should not be viewed as a substitute for those determined in accordance with GAAP. The reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to their respective most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in accordance with Regulation G is included herein or in the financial supplement, as applicable, which can be obtained from the Investor Relations section of Aspen's website at www.aspen.bm. Application of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This presentation contains, and Aspen's earnings conference call will contain, written or oral "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. These statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts, and can be identified by the use of words such as "expect," "intend," "plan," "believe," "do not believe," "aim," "project," "anticipate," "seek," "will," "estimate," "may," "continue," "guidance," and similar expressions of a future or forward-looking nature. All forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Aspen believes these factors include, but are not limited to: the possibility of greater frequency or severity of claims and loss activity, including as a result of natural or man-made (including economic and political risks) catastrophic or material loss events, than our underwriting, reserving, reinsurance purchasing or investment practices have anticipated; the reliability of, and changes in assumptions to, natural and man-made catastrophe pricing, accumulation and estimated loss models; evolving issues with respect to interpretation of coverage after major loss events; the effectiveness of our loss limitation methods; changes in the total industry losses, or our share of total industry losses, resulting from past events such as Hurricanes Ike and Gustav and, with respect to such events, our reliance on loss reports received from cedants and loss adjustors, our reliance on industry loss estimates and those generated by modeling techniques, changes in rulings on flood damage or other exclusions as a result of prevailing lawsuits and case law; the impact of acts of terrorism and related legislation and acts of war; decreased demand for our insurance or reinsurance products and cyclical changes in the insurance and reinsurance sectors; any changes in our reinsurers' credit quality and the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables; changes in the availability, cost or quality of reinsurance or retrocessional coverage; the continuing and uncertain impact of the current depressed economic environment in many of the countries in which we operate; the level of inflation in repair costs due to limited availability of labor and materials after catastrophes; changes in insurance and reinsurance market conditions; increased competition on the basis of pricing, capacity, coverage terms or other factors and the related demand and supply dynamics as contracts come up for renewal; a decline in our operating subsidiaries' ratings with Standard & Poor's ("S&P"), A.M. Best or Moody's Investor Service ("Moody's"); our ability to execute our business plan to enter new markets, introduce new products and develop new distribution channels, including their integration into our existing operations; changes in general economic conditions, including inflation, foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and other factors that could affect our investment portfolio; the risk of a material decline in the value or liquidity of all or parts of our investment portfolio; changes in our ability to exercise capital management initiatives or to arrange banking facilities as a result of prevailing market changes or changes in our financial position; changes in government regulations or tax laws in jurisdictions where we conduct business; Aspen Holdings or Aspen Bermuda becoming subject to income taxes in the United States or the United Kingdom; loss of key personnel; and increased counterparty risk due to the credit impairment of financial institutions. For a more detailed description of these uncertainties and other factors, please see the "Risk Factors" section in Aspen's Annual Reports on Form 10-K as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on February 26, 2010. Aspen undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. In addition, any estimates relating to loss events involve the exercise of considerable judgment and reflect a combination of ground-up evaluations, information available to date from brokers and cedants, market intelligence, initial tentative loss reports and other sources. Due to the complexity of factors contributing to the losses and the preliminary nature of the information used to prepare these estimates, there can be no assurance that Aspen's ultimate losses will remain within the stated amount. |
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Financial Highlights: 1Q 2010 (US$ in millions, except per share data) (*) Note: See Aspen's quarterly financial supplement for a reconciliation of operating income to net income and average equity to closing shareholders' equity in the Investor Relations section of Aspen's website at www.aspen.bm † (†) Includes corporate expenses for Group reporting purposes. |
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Financial Highlights: Group Summary 1Q 2010 |
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Financial Highlights: Group Summary 1Q 2010 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 |
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Key Performance Metrics: Q1 2010 * |
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Results by Business Segment: Q1 2010 (*) Underwriting income is calculated as underwriting revenues, less underwriting expenses. n 2009 Q1 n 2010 Q1 |
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Key Performance Metrics: Q1 2010 * |
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Chilean Earthquake Market loss estimates between $5bn-$8bn All reinstatements are related to the property catastrophe business line |
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Financial Highlights: Total Investment Return - Q1 2010 Annualized investment return for the quarter of 5.8% |
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Growth in Book Value Per Share and ROE (*) Note: See Aspen's quarterly financial supplement for a reconciliation of diluted book value per share to basic book value per share, reconciliation of average equity to closing shareholders' equity in the Investor Relations section of Aspen's website at www.aspen.bm Diluted Book value per share up 19% since March 31, 2009 |
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Aspen's Modelled Worldwide Natural Catastrophe Exposures Source: Aspen analysis using RMS v9.0 occurrence exceedance probability as at March 1, 2010 and Shareholders' Equity of $3,140.2 million Major Peril Zones, 100 and 250 Year Return Periods as a Percentage Of Total Shareholders' Equity 1 in 100 Year Tolerance: 17.5% of Total Shareholders' Equity 1 in 250 Year Tolerance: 25% of Total Shareholders' Equity |
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Fixed Income Portfolio by Asset Type (US$ in millions) (US$ in millions) |
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2010 Guidance Actual 2009 Results Initial Guidance February 9, 2010 Revised Guidance April 28, 2010 Gross Written Premium $2.1 billion $2.2 billion +- 5% $2.2 billion +- 5% % Premium Ceded 11.3% of GEP 8% - 12% of GEP 8% - 12% of GEP Combined Ratio 84.1% 88% - 94% 92% - 98% Tax Rate 11.4% 10% to 14% 9% to 13% Cat-Load $12 million $170 million (assuming normal loss experience) $140 million (assuming normal loss experience) For the remainder of 2010 |
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Business Performance and Market Outlook 1Q 2010* Information reflecting Aspen's portfolios * As at March 31, 2010. Key located on final page of presentation. |
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Business Performance and Market Outlook: Key Key Performance Absolute Pricing Relative Price Movement Terms and Conditions Volume change Outlook Key 1 2 3 4 5 6 Excellent Excellent Significantly Up Excellent Significantly Up Excellent Good Good Up Good Up Good Satisfactory Satisfactory Flat Satisfactory Flat Satisfactory Of Concern Of Concern Down Of Concern Down Of Concern Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory Significantly Down Unsatisfactory Significantly Down Unsatisfactory |