Exhibit 99.1
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited
February 9, 2007
4Q06 Earnings Conference Call
AHL: NYSE
AHL:NYSE
Safe Harbor Disclosure
This presentation is given in the context of the quarterly earnings conference call and contains non-GAAP measures. This slide presentation is for information
purposes only. It should be read in conjunction with our financial supplement posted on our website on the Investor Relations page and with other documents filed
or to be filed shortly by Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (the “Company” or “Aspen”) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In presenting Aspen's results, management has included and discussed certain "non-GAAP financial measures", as such term is defined in Regulation G.
Management believes that these non-GAAP measures, which may be defined differently by other companies, better explain Aspen's results of operations in a
manner that allows for a more complete understanding of the underlying trends in Aspen's business. However, these measures should not be viewed as a
substitute for those determined in accordance with GAAP. The reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to their respective most directly comparable
GAAP financial measures in accordance with Regulation G is included herein or in the financial supplement, as applicable, which can be obtained from the Investor
Relations section of Aspen's website at www.aspen.bm.
Application of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:
This presentation contains, and Aspen's earnings conference call may contain, written or oral "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. federal
securities laws. These statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking
statements include all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts, and can be identified by the use of words such as "expect," "intend," "plan,"
"believe," "project," "anticipate," "seek," "will," "estimate," "may," "continue," and similar expressions of a future or forward-looking nature.
All forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual
results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Aspen believes these factors include, but are not limited to: the impact that our future operating
results, capital position and rating agency and other considerations have on the execution of any capital management initiatives; the impact of any capital
management activities on our financial condition; the impact of acts of terrorism and related legislation and acts of war; the possibility of greater frequency or
severity of claims and loss activity, including as a result of natural or man-made catastrophic events such as Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, than our
underwriting, reserving or investment practices have anticipated; evolving interpretive issues with respect to coverage as a result of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and
Wilma; the level of inflation in repair costs due to limited availability of labor and materials after catastrophes; the effectiveness of Aspen's loss limitation methods;
changes in the availability, cost or quality of reinsurance or retrocessional coverage, which may affect our decision to purchase such coverage; the reliability of, and
changes in assumptions to, catastrophe pricing, accumulation and estimated loss models; loss of key personnel; a decline in our operating subsidiaries' ratings with
Standard & Poor's, A.M. Best Company or Moody's Investors Service; changes in general economic conditions including inflation, foreign currency exchange rates,
interest rates and other factors that could affect our investment portfolio; the number and type of insurance and reinsurance contracts that we wrote at the January
1st and other renewal periods in 2007 and the premium rates available at the time of such renewals within our targeted business lines; increased competition on the
basis of pricing, capacity, coverage terms or other factors; decreased demand for Aspen’s insurance or reinsurance products and cyclical downturn of the industry;
changes in governmental regulations, interpretations or tax laws in jurisdictions where Aspen conducts business; proposed and future changes to insurance laws
and regulations, including with respect to U.S. state- and other government-sponsored reinsurance funds and primary insurers; Aspen or its Bermudian subsidiary
becoming subject to income taxes in the United States or the United Kingdom; the effect on insurance markets, business practices and relationships of ongoing
litigation, investigations and regulatory activity by the New York State Attorney General's office and other authorities concerning contingent commission
arrangements with brokers and bid solicitation activities; the total industry losses resulting from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma and the actual number of
Aspen's insureds incurring losses from these storms; and with respect to Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, Aspen’s continued reliance on loss reports received
from cedants and loss adjustors, Aspen's reliance on industry loss estimates and those generated by modeling techniques, the impact of these storms on Aspen's
reinsurers, any changes in Aspen's reinsurers' credit quality, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables and reimbursements actually received by Aspen
from its reinsurers and the overall level of competition and the related demand and supply dynamics as contracts come up for renewal. For a more detailed
description of these uncertainties and other factors, please see the "Risk Factors" section in Aspen's Annual Reports on Form 10-K as filed with the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission. Aspen undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information,
future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates
on which they are made.
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AHL:NYSE
Financial Highlights — Fourth Quarter
(US$ in millions, except per share data)
Quarter Ended December 31
2006
2005
Change
Gross Premiums Written
$286.9
$245.0
17%
Net Premiums Written
278.1
188.1
48%
Net Premiums Earned
415.3
355.3
17%
Underwriting Income
96.3
(17.0)
NM*
Net Investment Income
62.7
39.3
60%
Net Income after tax
119.5
30.3
294%
GAAP Ratios:
Loss Ratio
48.6%
76.6%
(28.0)% pts
Expense Ratio
28.2%
28.2%
0.0% pts
Combined Ratio
76.8%
104.8%
(28.0)% pts
4Q ROAE (annualized)
22.4%
6.8%
15.6% pts
Diluted 4Q Operating
Earnings Per Ordinary Share
$1.22
$0.46
165%
Diluted Book Value
Per Ordinary Share
$21.83
$18.73
17%
(*) = Percentage ratio not meaningful comparison
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AHL:NYSE
Financial Highlights — Full Year
(US$ in millions, except per share data)
Year Ended December 31
2006
2005
Change
Gross Premiums Written
$1,945.5
$2,092.5
(7.0%)
Net Premiums Written
1,663.6
1,651.6
0.7%
Net Premiums Earned
1,676.2
1,508.4
11.1%
Underwriting Income
295.6
(259.2)
NM*
Net Investment Income
204.4
121.3
68.5%
Net Income after tax
378.1
(177.8)
NM*
GAAP Ratios:
Loss Ratio
53.1%
90.1%
(37.0%) pts
Expense Ratio
29.3%
27.1%
2.2% pts
Combined Ratio
82.4%
117.2%
(34.8%) pts
Full Year ROAE
18.5%
(11.7%)
NM*
Diluted Operating
Earnings Per Ordinary Share
$3.72
($2.11)
NM*
(*) = Percentage ratio not meaningful comparison
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AHL:NYSE
Market Conditions 2007 Outlook —
Property and Specialty Lines
Property Reinsurance
Specialty lines
Insurance
Line
Outlook ’07
Trend
Line
Outlook ’07
Trend
Line
Outlook ’07
Trend
Catastrophe
Aviation
UK Property
Treaty
Pro Rata
Marine Hull
E&S Property
Risk Excess
Offshore Energy
International
Treaty
Physical Damage
Property Fac.
Marine & Energy
Liability
Specialty
Reinsurance
= Absolute rate levels attractive
= 12 month rate trend positive
= Absolute rate levels mixed
= 12 month rate trend neutral
= Absolute rate levels very challenging
= 12 month rate trend slightly downwards
= 12 month rate trend downwards
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AHL:NYSE
Market Conditions 2007 Outlook —
Casualty Lines
Casualty Reinsurance
Insurance
Line
Outlook ’07
Trend
Line
Outlook ’07
Trend
International Casualty
UK Liability
US Casualty
E&S Casualty
Casualty Facultative
= Absolute rate levels attractive
= 12 month rate trend positive
= Absolute rate levels mixed
= 12 month rate trend neutral
= Absolute rate levels very challenging
= 12 month rate trend downwards
Pricing Under Pressure but still Adequate
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AHL:NYSE
2007 Impact of Florida Legislation
$3 million estimated 2007 premium loss from
Aspen direct exposure
Florida domiciled clients (maximum)
to Florida
Aspen indirect exposure
$10 million estimated premium loss
to Florida
from non-Florida domiciled business
~2.5% reduction in worldwide property
Other indirect Impact
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reinsurance premium due to increased competition
AHL:NYSE
Investments by Sector (excluding cash)
At December 31
2006
2005
Short-term
investments
Short-term
14.9%
Corporate
investments
securities
Corporate
17.4%
23.0%
Securities
23.1%
Hedge funds
3.40%*
Mortgage -
Mortgage-
backed
backed
securities ,
Foreign
securities
14.4%
government
9.5%
Asset-
Asset-
Foreign
9.4%
backed
backed
Government
securities
securities
7.3%
5.5%
6.2%
Hedge funds
Municipals
0.0%
0.1%
* Hedge funds invested via funds of funds
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AHL:NYSE
Improvement in Investment Yield
Fixed income portfolio
Date
book yield
December 31, 2006
4.52%
September 30, 2006
4.44%
June 30, 2006
4.40%
March 31, 2006
4.19%
December 31, 2005
4.08%
September 30, 2005
3.84%
June 30, 2005
3.68%
March 31, 2005
3.49%
December 31, 2004
3.53%
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AHL:NYSE
Calculation of Pro Forma ROAE
2006
(US$ in millions)
FY
Average Equity reported in earnings release (1)
$1,955
Pro forma Average Equity (2)
$1,788
Net Income adjusted for preference share dividend
$363
Operating Income adjusted for preference share dividend (1)
$360
Pro forma net income adjusted for preference share dividend (3)
$351
Pro forma operating income adjusted for preference share dividend (3)
$349
ROAE: Net Income adjusted for preference share dividend
18.5%
ROAE: Operating Income adjusted for preference share dividend
18.4%
Pro forma ROAE: Net Income adjusted for preference share dividend
19.7%
Pro forma ROAE: Operating Income adjusted for preference share dividend
19.5%
(1)
Reconciliations of Average Equity to closing shareholders’ equity and operating income to net income are provided in our 4Q06
financial supplement available on the Aspen website at www.aspen.bm
(2)
Pro forma Average Equity is reduced by $167 million from average equity assuming that our $200 million share repurchase program
occurred on January 1, 2006.
(3) Pro forma net income and operating income reduces net income and operating income by the additional preference share dividends
payable assuming the $200 million share repurchase program occurred on January 1, 2006.
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AHL:NYSE
Decomposition of Historical ROAE*
2003
2004
25%
3%
-0.1%
25%
-5%
19%
5%
-1%
20%
-5%
20%
16%
15%
13%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
U/W Profit
Invest
Other
Tax
Total
U/W Profit
Invest
Other
Tax
Total
Income
Income
2005
2006
0%
30%
10%
-2%
-5%
-2%
25%
15%
-4%
18%
-6%
20%
-8%
15%
-10%
-12%
-2%
10%
-1%
-11%
-14%
5%
-16%
-18%
-16%
7%
0%
U/W Profit
Invest
Other
Tax
Total
U/W Profit
Invest
Other
Tax
Total
Income
Income
Increasing Contribution from Investment Income
* Reconciliation of Average Equity to closing shareholders’ equity is provided in our quarterly financial supplements available on the Aspen website at www.aspen.bm
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AHL:NYSE
2007 Guidance
At February 9, 2007
GWP
$1.9 billion + 5%
% Premium Ceded
6% – 8% of GWP
Combined Ratio
83% – 88%*
Investment Income
$230 – $250 million
Tax Rate
16% to 19%
Assumed Average Cat-Load
$135 million
Implied ROE of 16% - 20%
* Assumes no major losses or prior year reserve movements
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