Exhibit 99.2
Financial Supplement
Fourth Quarter 2004
December 31, 2004
Table of Contents
Assured Guaranty Ltd. | | | | Investor contact: |
30 Woodbourne Avenue | | | | Sabra Purtill |
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda | | | | (212) 408-6044 |
www.assuredguaranty.com | | | | spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our IPO prospectus dated April 22, 2004 and our 10-Q’s dated June 30, 2004 and September 30, 2004.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement, such as its statements regarding PVP, reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions except per share amounts)
| | Quarter Ended December 31, | | % Change versus 4Q-03 | | Year Ended December 31, | | % Change versus 2003 | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | 2003 | | |
Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a) | | $ | 82.2 | | $ | 57.1 | | 44 | % | $ | 289.6 | | $ | 265.9 | | 9 | % |
Less: Installment premium PVP | | 52.4 | | 28.9 | | 81 | % | 164.1 | | 153.4 | | 7 | % |
Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP | | 29.8 | | 28.2 | | 6 | % | 125.5 | | 112.5 | | 12 | % |
Plus: Installment GWP | | 32.2 | | 31.1 | | 4 | % | 140.0 | | 146.1 | | -4 | % |
Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP | | 62.0 | | 59.3 | | 5 | % | 265.5 | | 258.6 | | 3 | % |
Plus: Other segment GWP | | 3.8 | | (14.7 | ) | NM | | (74.6 | ) | 90.6 | | NM | |
Total GWP | | $ | 65.8 | | $ | 44.6 | | 48 | % | $ | 190.9 | | $ | 349.2 | | -45 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 48.3 | | $ | 97.2 | | -50 | % | $ | 182.8 | | $ | 214.5 | | -15 | % |
Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments | | 0.6 | | — | | NM | | 7.7 | | 3.8 | | 103 | % |
Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives | | 11.8 | | 63.3 | | -81 | % | 34.0 | | 83.4 | | -59 | % |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 35.9 | | $ | 33.9 | | 6 | % | $ | 141.1 | | $ | 127.3 | | 11 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 1,527.6 | | $ | 1,437.6 | | 6 | % | $ | 1,527.6 | | $ | 1,437.6 | | 6 | % |
Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1) | | 268.6 | | 223.4 | | 20 | % | 268.6 | | 223.4 | | 20 | % |
Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax | | 297.1 | | 266.8 | | 11 | % | 297.1 | | 266.8 | | 11 | % |
Adjusted book value (c) | | $ | 2,093.3 | | $ | 1,927.8 | | 9 | % | $ | 2,093.3 | | $ | 1,927.8 | | 9 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
ROE, excluding AOCI | | 13.5 | % | 29.7 | % | | | 13.0 | % | 17.0 | % | | |
Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments | | 0.2 | % | 0.0 | % | | | 0.6 | % | 0.3 | % | | |
Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives | | 3.3 | % | 19.4 | % | | | 2.4 | % | 6.6 | % | | |
Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b) | | 10.0 | % | 10.3 | % | | | 10.1 | % | 10.1 | % | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average basic shares outstanding in millions (2) | | 74.9 | | 75.0 | | 0 | % | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | 0 | % |
Average diluted shares outstanding in millions | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | 0 | % | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | 0 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Per diluted share: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 0.64 | | $ | 1.30 | | -51 | % | $ | 2.44 | | $ | 2.86 | | -15 | % |
Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments | | 0.01 | | — | | 100 | % | 0.10 | | 0.05 | | 100 | % |
Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives | | 0.16 | | 0.84 | | -81 | % | 0.45 | | 1.11 | | -59 | % |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 0.48 | | $ | 0.45 | | 7 | % | $ | 1.88 | | $ | 1.70 | | 11 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 20.19 | | $ | 19.17 | | 5 | % | $ | 20.19 | | $ | 19.17 | | 5 | % |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1) | | 3.55 | | 2.98 | | 19 | % | 3.55 | | 2.98 | | 19 | % |
Plus: Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax | | 3.93 | | 3.56 | | 10 | % | 3.93 | | 3.56 | | 10 | % |
Adjusted book value (c) | | $ | 27.67 | | $ | 25.71 | | 8 | % | $ | 27.67 | | $ | 25.71 | | 8 | % |
(1). Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax
(2). Historical amounts represent shares issued upon the IPO closing
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
3
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended December 31, | | % Change versus 4Q-03 | | Year Ended December 31, | | % Change versus 2003 | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | | 2004 | | 2003 | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 65.8 | | $ | 44.6 | | 48 | % | $ | 190.9 | | $ | 349.2 | | -45 | % |
Net written premiums | | 61.4 | | 158.4 | | -61 | % | 79.6 | | 491.5 | | -84 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 57.1 | | 87.0 | | -34 | % | 187.9 | | 310.9 | | -40 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 23.7 | | 24.4 | | -3 | % | 94.8 | | 96.3 | | -2 | % |
Other income | | 0.3 | | 0.2 | | 50 | % | 0.8 | | 1.2 | | -33 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 81.1 | | $ | 111.6 | | -27 | % | $ | 283.5 | | $ | 408.4 | | -31 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 0.2 | | 52.7 | | NM | | (32.0 | ) | 144.6 | | NM | |
Profit commission expenses | | 4.2 | | 2.4 | | 75 | % | 15.5 | | 9.8 | | 58 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 15.1 | | 15.8 | | -4 | % | 50.9 | | 64.9 | | -22 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 14.5 | | 9.6 | | 51 | % | 67.8 | | 41.0 | | 65 | % |
Goodwill impairment | | — | | — | | — | | 1.6 | | — | | NM | |
Interest expense | | 3.4 | | 1.4 | | 143 | % | 10.7 | | 5.7 | | 88 | % |
Total expenses | | $ | 37.4 | | $ | 81.9 | | -54 | % | $ | 114.6 | | $ | 266.1 | | -57 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 43.7 | | 29.7 | | 47 | % | 168.9 | | 142.3 | | 19 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 7.8 | | (4.2 | ) | NM | | 27.8 | | 15.0 | | 85 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 35.9 | | $ | 33.9 | | 6 | % | $ | 141.1 | | $ | 127.3 | | 11 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.6 | | — | | NM | | 7.7 | | 3.8 | | 103 | % |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 11.8 | | 63.3 | | -81 | % | 34.0 | | 83.4 | | -59 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 48.3 | | $ | 97.2 | | -50 | % | $ | 182.8 | | $ | 214.5 | | -15 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
4
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of : | |
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value | | $ | 1,965.1 | | $ | 2,052.2 | |
Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market | | 175.8 | | 137.5 | |
Total investments | | 2,140.9 | | 2,189.7 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 17.0 | | 32.4 | |
Accrued investment income | | 21.9 | | 23.8 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 186.4 | | 178.7 | |
Premiums receivable | | 40.8 | | 64.0 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 15.2 | | 11.0 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 120.2 | | 122.1 | |
Due from affiliate | | — | | 115.0 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 43.9 | | — | |
Value of reinsurance business assumed | | — | | 14.2 | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 87.1 | |
Other assets | | 22.3 | | 20.0 | |
Total assets | | $ | 2,694.0 | | $ | 2,857.9 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 521.3 | | $ | 625.4 | |
Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 226.5 | | 522.6 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 61.7 | | 71.2 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 25.1 | | 4.9 | |
Deferred income taxes | | 40.1 | | 55.6 | |
Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments | | — | | 8.6 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 50.8 | | 9.6 | |
Long-term debt | | 197.4 | | 75.0 | |
Other liabilities | | 43.7 | | 47.2 | |
Total liabilities | | 1,166.4 | | 1,420.3 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 0.8 | | 16.4 | |
Treasury stock | | (7.9 | ) | — | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 894.2 | | 955.5 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 79.0 | | 81.2 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (6.7 | ) | (5.5 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 568.3 | | 390.0 | |
Total shareholders’ equity | | 1,527.6 | | 1,437.6 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | $ | 2,694.0 | | $ | 2,857.9 | |
5
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended December 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 26.4 | | $ | — | | $ | 32.1 | | | | $ | 32.1 | |
Structured finance | | 33.9 | | 9.3 | | 6.9 | | 50.1 | | | | 50.1 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 39.6 | | $ | 35.7 | | $ | 6.9 | | $ | 82.2 | | | | $ | 82.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 62.0 | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | 65.8 | |
Net written premiums | | 20.9 | | 36.3 | | 4.2 | | 61.4 | | — | | 61.4 | |
Net earned premiums | | 15.5 | | 36.5 | | 5.2 | | 57.1 | | — | | 57.1 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 1.0 | | 1.6 | | (2.0 | ) | 0.6 | | (0.4 | ) | 0.2 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.9 | | 3.5 | | 4.2 | | — | | 4.2 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.6 | | 13.0 | | 0.6 | | 15.1 | | — | | 15.1 | |
Operating expenses | | 3.9 | | 9.1 | | 1.3 | | 14.5 | | — | | 14.5 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 6.5 | | $ | 24.6 | | $ | 3.4 | | $ | 34.4 | | $ | (0.4 | ) | $ | 34.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 9.0 | | $ | 11.9 | | $ | 1.8 | | $ | 22.7 | | $ | 0.4 | | $ | 23.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 6.5 | % | 4.4 | % | -37.8 | % | 1.1 | % | | | 0.4 | % |
Expense ratio | | 35.4 | % | 63.0 | % | 103.5 | % | 59.2 | % | | | 59.2 | % |
Combined ratio | | 41.9 | % | 67.4 | % | 65.7 | % | 60.3 | % | | | 59.5 | % |
| | Quarter Ended December 31, 2003 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | 31.3 | | $ | — | | $ | 31.3 | | | | $ | 31.3 | |
Structured finance | | 21.7 | | 4.0 | | — | | 25.7 | | | | 25.7 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 21.7 | | $ | 35.4 | | $ | — | | $ | 57.1 | | | | $ | 57.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 17.0 | | $ | 37.9 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 59.3 | | $ | (14.7 | ) | $ | 44.6 | |
Net written premiums | | 16.6 | | 37.9 | | 4.4 | | 58.9 | | 99.5 | | 158.4 | |
Net earned premiums | | 16.1 | | 24.5 | | 5.7 | | 46.3 | | 40.7 | | 87.0 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 3.2 | | 15.3 | | (1.7 | ) | 16.8 | | 35.9 | | 52.7 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.5 | | 1.1 | | 1.6 | | 0.8 | | 2.4 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.0 | | 8.1 | | 0.6 | | 9.7 | | 6.1 | | 15.8 | |
Operating expenses | | 1.8 | | 2.7 | | 0.6 | | 5.1 | | 4.5 | | 9.6 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 26.6 | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | 33.2 | | $ | 47.3 | | $ | 80.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | (2.1 | ) | $ | 5.1 | | $ | 13.1 | | $ | (6.6 | ) | $ | 6.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 19.9 | % | 62.4 | % | -29.8 | % | 36.3 | % | 88.2 | % | 60.6 | % |
Expense ratio | | 17.4 | % | 46.1 | % | 40.4 | % | 35.4 | % | 28.0 | % | 32.0 | % |
Combined ratio | | 37.3 | % | 108.6 | % | 10.5 | % | 71.7 | % | 116.2 | % | 92.5 | % |
(1). Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
6
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation
(dollars in millions)
| | Year Ended December 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Present value of financial guaranty GWP (PVP): (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 8.6 | | $ | 137.3 | | $ | — | | $ | 145.9 | | | | $ | 145.9 | |
Structured finance | | $ | 61.1 | | $ | 55.5 | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 143.8 | | | | $ | 143.8 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 69.7 | | $ | 192.8 | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 289.6 | | | | $ | 289.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 80.8 | | $ | 160.3 | | $ | 24.4 | | $ | 265.5 | | $ | (74.6 | ) | $ | 190.9 | |
Net written premiums | | 77.7 | | 160.1 | | 24.4 | | 262.2 | | (182.5 | ) | 79.6 | |
Net earned premiums | | 88.8 | | 114.4 | | 33.7 | | 236.8 | | (48.9 | ) | 187.9 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 14.8 | | 15.4 | | (11.9 | ) | 18.3 | | (50.3 | ) | (32.0 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 1.1 | | 14.1 | | 15.2 | | 0.3 | | 15.5 | |
Acquisition costs | | 4.5 | | 38.8 | | 3.7 | | 47.0 | | 3.9 | | 50.9 | |
Operating expenses (2) | | 15.8 | | 28.5 | | 8.3 | | 52.6 | | 3.9 | | 56.5 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 35.1 | | $ | 83.8 | | $ | 14.2 | | $ | 133.1 | | $ | (42.2 | ) | $ | 90.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 53.7 | | $ | 30.6 | | $ | 19.5 | | $ | 103.7 | | $ | (6.7 | ) | $ | 97.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 16.7 | % | 13.5 | % | -35.2 | % | 7.7 | % | 102.8 | % | -17.0 | % |
Expense ratio | | 22.8 | % | 59.8 | % | 77.4 | % | 48.5 | % | -16.6 | % | 65.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 39.5 | % | 73.2 | % | 42.2 | % | 56.2 | % | 86.2 | % | 48.4 | % |
| | Year Ended December 31, 2003 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | 131.4 | | $ | — | | $ | 132.9 | | | | $ | 132.9 | |
Structured finance | | 94.5 | | 37.9 | | 0.6 | | 133.0 | | | | 133.0 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 96.0 | | $ | 169.3 | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | 265.9 | | | | $ | 265.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 71.1 | | $ | 163.1 | | $ | 24.4 | | $ | 258.6 | | $ | 90.6 | | $ | 349.2 | |
Net written premiums | | 70.0 | | 162.1 | | 24.4 | | 256.5 | | 235.0 | | 491.5 | |
Net earned premiums | | 70.2 | | 92.9 | | 27.6 | | 190.7 | | 120.2 | | 310.9 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 16.3 | | 25.7 | | (0.7 | ) | 41.3 | | 103.3 | | 144.6 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 1.5 | | 7.3 | | 8.8 | | 1.0 | | 9.8 | |
Acquisition costs | | 2.2 | | 33.6 | | 4.1 | | 39.9 | | 25.0 | | 64.9 | |
Operating expenses | | 8.9 | | 12.0 | | 4.2 | | 25.1 | | 15.9 | | 41.0 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 27.4 | | $ | 72.8 | | $ | 14.9 | | $ | 115.1 | | $ | 145.2 | | $ | 260.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 42.8 | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | 12.7 | | $ | 75.6 | | $ | (25.0 | ) | $ | 50.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 23.2 | % | 27.7 | % | -2.5 | % | 21.7 | % | 85.9 | % | 46.5 | % |
Expense ratio | | 15.8 | % | 50.7 | % | 56.5 | % | 38.7 | % | 34.9 | % | 37.2 | % |
Combined ratio | | 39.0 | % | 78.4 | % | 54.0 | % | 60.4 | % | 120.8 | % | 83.7 | % |
(1). Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
(2). Full year 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
7
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Year Ended | |
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 2003 | | 2004 | |
PVP: (a) | | $ | 20.7 | | $ | 15.4 | | $ | 38.2 | | $ | 21.7 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 14.4 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 39.6 | | $ | 96.0 | | $ | 69.7 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums written in period | | (20.7 | ) | (15.4 | ) | (36.7 | ) | (21.7 | ) | (7.9 | ) | (14.4 | ) | (7.9 | ) | (33.9 | ) | (94.6 | ) | (64.0 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | — | | — | | 1.5 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 5.7 | | 1.5 | | 5.7 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums | | 14.0 | | 23.1 | | 15.5 | | 17.0 | | 25.6 | | 17.7 | | 16.2 | | 15.6 | | 69.6 | | 75.1 | |
Financial guaranty gross written premiums | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | 17.0 | | $ | 17.0 | | $ | 25.6 | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 71.1 | | $ | 80.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | 17.0 | | $ | 17.0 | | $ | 25.6 | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 71.1 | | $ | 80.8 | |
Net written premiums | | 15.8 | | 20.6 | | 17.0 | | 16.6 | | 25.3 | | 17.3 | | 14.2 | | 20.9 | | 70.0 | | 77.7 | |
Net earned premiums | | 16.9 | | 21.2 | | 16.0 | | 16.1 | | 40.7 | | 16.1 | | 16.5 | | 15.5 | | 70.2 | | 88.8 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 2.0 | | 6.4 | | 4.7 | | 3.2 | | 13.4 | | 1.6 | | (1.2 | ) | 1.0 | | 16.3 | | 14.8 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | — | | — | | 1.2 | | 1.0 | | 1.4 | | 0.1 | | 1.4 | | 1.6 | | 2.2 | | 4.5 | |
Operating expenses (1) | | 2.7 | | 1.9 | | 2.5 | | 1.8 | | 3.3 | | 4.3 | | 4.3 | | 3.9 | | 8.9 | | 15.8 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 4.7 | | $ | 8.3 | | $ | 8.4 | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 18.1 | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 4.5 | | $ | 6.5 | | $ | 27.4 | | $ | 35.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 12.2 | | $ | 12.9 | | $ | 7.6 | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | 22.6 | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | 12.0 | | $ | 9.0 | | $ | 42.8 | | $ | 53.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 11.8 | % | 30.2 | % | 29.4 | % | 19.9 | % | 32.9 | % | 9.9 | % | -7.3 | % | 6.5 | % | 23.2 | % | 16.7 | % |
Expense ratio | | 16.0 | % | 9.0 | % | 23.1 | % | 17.4 | % | 11.5 | % | 27.3 | % | 34.5 | % | 35.4 | % | 15.8 | % | 22.8 | % |
Combined ratio | | 27.8 | % | 39.2 | % | 52.5 | % | 37.3 | % | 44.5 | % | 37.3 | % | 27.3 | % | 41.9 | % | 39.0 | % | 39.5 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | 8.6 | |
Structured finance | | 20.7 | | 15.4 | | 36.7 | | 21.7 | | 7.9 | | 11.4 | | 7.9 | | 33.9 | | 94.5 | | 61.1 | |
Total | | $ | 20.7 | | $ | 15.4 | | $ | 38.2 | | $ | 21.7 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 14.4 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 39.6 | | $ | 96.0 | | $ | 69.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 48 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 246 | | $ | 508 | | $ | 194 | | $ | 48 | | $ | 948 | |
Structured finance | | 1,212 | | 1,163 | | 2,796 | | 1,810 | | 1,488 | | 2,444 | | 854 | | 7,263 | | 6,980 | | 12,049 | |
Total | | $ | 1,212 | | $ | 1,163 | | $ | 2,844 | | $ | 1,810 | | $ | 1,488 | | $ | 2,691 | | $ | 1,361 | | $ | 7,457 | | $ | 7,028 | | $ | 12,997 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 2,120 | | $ | 2,381 | | $ | 2,251 | | $ | 2,138 | | $ | 2,112 | | $ | 2,321 | | $ | 2,852 | | $ | 3,144 | | $ | 2,138 | | $ | 3,144 | |
Structured finance | | 17,709 | | 18,140 | | 20,509 | | 21,561 | | 21,737 | | 23,454 | | 23,605 | | 28,468 | | 21,561 | | 28,468 | |
Total | | $ | 19,829 | | $ | 20,521 | | $ | 22,760 | | $ | 23,698 | | $ | 23,849 | | $ | 25,775 | | $ | 26,457 | | $ | 31,612 | | $ | 23,698 | | $ | 31,612 | |
Present value of installment premiums in force: (a) | | $ | 194.6 | | $ | 205.4 | | $ | 221.9 | | $ | 228.1 | | $ | 220.6 | | $ | 219.7 | | $ | 218.9 | | $ | 231.0 | | $ | 228.1 | | $ | 231.0 | |
Unearned premium reserve, net | | $ | 29.0 | | $ | 28.2 | | $ | 29.1 | | $ | 31.2 | | $ | 16.0 | | $ | 17.1 | | $ | 14.7 | | $ | 20.3 | | $ | 31.2 | | $ | 20.3 | |
(1). 2Q-04 and full year 2004 exclude the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
8
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Year Ended | |
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 2003 | | 2004 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | 38.6 | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 68.3 | | $ | 35.4 | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 40.1 | | $ | 38.9 | | $ | 35.7 | | $ | 169.3 | | $ | 192.8 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | (15.7 | ) | (12.2 | ) | (23.2 | ) | (7.2 | ) | (40.0 | ) | (17.2 | ) | (14.5 | ) | (11.6 | ) | (58.3 | ) | (83.3 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | 22.9 | | 14.8 | | 45.2 | | 28.2 | | 38.1 | | 22.9 | | 24.5 | | 24.1 | | 111.0 | | 109.5 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums (2) | | 6.9 | | 19.2 | | 16.2 | | 9.7 | | 14.3 | | 12.9 | | 11.1 | | 12.4 | | 52.1 | | 50.8 | |
Financial guaranty gross written premiums | | $ | 29.8 | | $ | 34.0 | | $ | 61.4 | | $ | 37.9 | | $ | 52.4 | | $ | 35.8 | | $ | 35.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 163.1 | | $ | 160.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 29.8 | | $ | 34.0 | | $ | 61.4 | | $ | 37.9 | | $ | 52.4 | | $ | 35.8 | | $ | 35.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 163.1 | | $ | 160.3 | |
Net written premiums | | 29.1 | | 33.9 | | 61.2 | | 37.9 | | 52.4 | | 35.8 | | 35.6 | | 36.3 | | 162.1 | | 160.1 | |
Net earned premiums | | 16.9 | | 30.1 | | 21.4 | | 24.5 | | 20.4 | | 25.6 | | 31.9 | | 36.5 | | 92.9 | | 114.4 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 1.8 | | 0.9 | | 7.7 | | 15.3 | | 3.9 | | (0.9 | ) | 10.8 | | 1.6 | | 25.7 | | 15.4 | |
Profit commission expense | | 0.1 | | 0.9 | | — | | 0.5 | | 0.1 | | 0.3 | | (0.2 | ) | 0.9 | | 1.5 | | 1.1 | |
Acquisition costs | | 5.4 | | 11.9 | | 8.2 | | 8.1 | | 7.1 | | 6.6 | | 12.1 | | 13.0 | | 33.6 | | 38.8 | |
Operating expenses (3) | | 3.1 | | 2.8 | | 3.4 | | 2.7 | | 4.1 | | 6.9 | | 8.4 | | 9.1 | | 12.0 | | 28.5 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 10.4 | | $ | 16.5 | | $ | 19.3 | | $ | 26.6 | | $ | 15.2 | | $ | 12.9 | | $ | 31.1 | | $ | 24.6 | | $ | 72.8 | | $ | 83.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 6.5 | | $ | 13.6 | | $ | 2.1 | | $ | (2.1 | ) | $ | 5.2 | | $ | 12.7 | | $ | 0.8 | | $ | 11.9 | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | 30.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 10.7 | % | 3.0 | % | 36.0 | % | 62.4 | % | 19.1 | % | —3.5 | % | 33.9 | % | 4.4 | % | 27.7 | % | 13.5 | % |
Expense ratio | | 50.9 | % | 51.8 | % | 54.2 | % | 46.1 | % | 55.4 | % | 53.9 | % | 63.6 | % | 63.0 | % | 50.7 | % | 59.8 | % |
Combined ratio | | 61.5 | % | 54.8 | % | 90.2 | % | 108.6 | % | 74.5 | % | 50.4 | % | 97.5 | % | 67.4 | % | 78.4 | % | 73.2 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 26.8 | | $ | 15.8 | | $ | 57.5 | | $ | 31.3 | | $ | 45.8 | | $ | 31.2 | | $ | 33.9 | | $ | 26.4 | | $ | 131.4 | | $ | 137.3 | |
Structured finance | | 11.8 | | 11.3 | | 10.8 | | 4.0 | | 32.3 | | 8.9 | | 5.0 | | 9.3 | | 37.9 | | 55.5 | |
Total | | $ | 38.6 | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 68.3 | | $ | 35.4 | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 40.1 | | $ | 38.9 | | $ | 35.7 | | $ | 169.3 | | $ | 192.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1,279 | | $ | 914 | | $ | 2,621 | | $ | 1,906 | | $ | 1,932 | | $ | 1,590 | | $ | 2,262 | | $ | 1,443 | | $ | 6,720 | | $ | 7,227 | |
Structured finance | | 1,263 | | 737 | | 888 | | 406 | | 1,154 | | 629 | | 507 | | 861 | | 3,295 | | 3,151 | |
Total | | $ | 2,542 | | $ | 1,651 | | $ | 3,510 | | $ | 2,312 | | $ | 3,086 | | $ | 2,219 | | $ | 2,769 | | $ | 2,304 | | $ | 10,014 | | $ | 10,378 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 47,238 | | $ | 47,001 | | $ | 48,499 | | $ | 50,538 | | $ | 51,806 | | $ | 52,061 | | $ | 52,926 | | $ | 51,324 | | $ | 50,538 | | $ | 51,324 | |
Structured finance | | 13,089 | | 12,976 | | 13,083 | | 13,287 | | 13,935 | | 13,514 | | 13,084 | | 12,656 | | 13,287 | | 12,656 | |
Total | | $ | 60,327 | | $ | 59,977 | | $ | 61,582 | | $ | 63,825 | | $ | 65,741 | | $ | 65,575 | | $ | 66,010 | | $ | 63,980 | | $ | 63,825 | | $ | 63,980 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net premiums earned from refundings | | $ | 3.3 | | $ | 8.1 | | $ | 5.8 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 5.2 | | $ | 5.0 | | $ | 19.2 | | $ | 17.4 | |
Present value of installment premiums in force: (a) | | $ | 101.1 | | $ | 105.6 | | $ | 116.4 | | $ | 117.2 | | $ | 140.3 | | $ | 147.2 | | $ | 138.0 | | 138.9 | | $ | 117.2 | | $ | 138.9 | |
Unearned premium reserve, net | | $ | 341.0 | | $ | 343.0 | | $ | 382.9 | | $ | 398.7 | | $ | 436.4 | | $ | 441.0 | | $ | 444.2 | | 443.80 | | $ | 398.7 | | $ | 443.8 | |
(1). Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
(2). Installment gross written premiums includes the reclassification of certain deals originally recorded as installment that were discovered during 3Q-04 to be upfront premiums. As a result, prior period amounts have been restated. This reclass had an immaterial impact on our QTD and YTD results of operations and financial condition.
(3). 2Q-04 and full year 2004 exclude the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
9
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Mortgage Guaranty Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Year Ended | |
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 2003 | | 2004 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | — | | $ | 19.2 | | $ | — | | $ | 1.1 | | $ | 6.9 | | $ | 0.6 | | $ | 27.1 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | — | | — | | (0.6 | ) | — | | (8.9 | ) | — | | (1.1 | ) | (6.9 | ) | (0.6 | ) | (16.9 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 10.3 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 10.3 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums | | 5.8 | | 8.5 | | 5.7 | | 4.4 | | 3.7 | | 0.9 | | 5.3 | | 4.2 | | 24.4 | | 14.1 | |
Financial guaranty gross written premiums | | $ | 5.8 | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 24.4 | | $ | 24.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 5.8 | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 24.4 | | $ | 24.4 | |
Net written premiums | | 6.1 | | 8.2 | | 5.7 | | 4.4 | | 14.0 | | 0.9 | | 5.3 | | 4.2 | | 24.4 | | 24.4 | |
Net earned premiums | | 6.9 | | 9.4 | | 5.6 | | 5.7 | | 8.4 | | 15.0 | | 5.1 | | 5.2 | | 27.6 | | 33.7 | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 1.2 | | 3.7 | | (3.9 | ) | (1.7 | ) | (1.2 | ) | (3.3 | ) | (5.4 | ) | (2.0 | ) | (0.7 | ) | (11.9 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | 3.2 | | 1.4 | | 1.6 | | 1.1 | | 5.0 | | 4.3 | | 1.3 | | 3.5 | | 7.3 | | 14.1 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.0 | | 1.5 | | 1.0 | | 0.6 | | 0.9 | | 1.7 | | 0.5 | | 0.6 | | 4.1 | | 3.7 | |
Operating expenses (1) | | 1.8 | | 0.9 | | 0.9 | | 0.6 | | 1.7 | | 4.0 | | 1.3 | | 1.3 | | 4.2 | | 8.3 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 7.2 | | $ | 7.5 | | $ | (0.4 | ) | $ | 0.6 | | $ | 6.4 | | $ | 6.7 | | $ | (2.3 | ) | $ | 3.4 | | $ | 14.9 | | $ | 14.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | (0.3 | ) | $ | 1.9 | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 5.1 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 8.3 | | $ | 7.4 | | $ | 1.8 | | $ | 12.7 | | $ | 19.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 17.4 | % | 39.4 | % | -69.6 | % | -29.8 | % | -14.3 | % | -22.0 | % | -105.9 | % | -37.8 | % | -2.5 | % | -35.2 | % |
Expense ratio | | 87.0 | % | 40.4 | % | 62.5 | % | 40.4 | % | 90.5 | % | 66.7 | % | 60.8 | % | 103.5 | % | 56.5 | % | 77.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 104.3 | % | 79.8 | % | -7.1 | % | 10.5 | % | 76.2 | % | 44.7 | % | -45.1 | % | 65.7 | % | 54.0 | % | 42.2 | % |
(1). 2Q-04 and full year 2004 exclude the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
10
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Other Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Year Ended | |
| | 1Q-03 | | 2Q-03 | | 3Q-03 | | 4Q-03 | | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 2003 | | 2004 | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 60.9 | | $ | 18.3 | | $ | 26.0 | | $ | (14.7 | ) | $ | (93.6 | ) | $ | 10.0 | | $ | 5.2 | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | 90.6 | | $ | (74.6 | ) |
Net written premiums | | 53.1 | | 56.3 | | 26.0 | | 99.5 | | (98.5 | ) | (84.0 | ) | — | | — | | 235.0 | | (182.5 | ) |
Net earned premiums | | 22.9 | | 21.4 | | 35.2 | | 40.7 | | 17.1 | | (66.0 | ) | — | | — | | 120.2 | | (48.9 | ) |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 18.2 | | 24.8 | | 24.4 | | 35.9 | | 7.5 | | (57.4 | ) | — | | (0.4 | ) | 103.3 | | (50.3 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | (0.5 | ) | 0.4 | | 0.3 | | 0.8 | | 0.1 | | 0.2 | | — | | — | | 1.0 | | 0.3 | |
Acquisition costs | | 5.4 | | 6.0 | | 7.5 | | 6.1 | | 3.9 | | — | | — | | — | | 25.0 | | 3.9 | |
Operating expenses (1) | | 4.0 | | 1.9 | | 5.5 | | 4.5 | | 3.9 | | — | | — | | — | | 15.9 | | 3.9 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 33.1 | | $ | 37.7 | | $ | 47.3 | | $ | 15.4 | | $ | (57.2 | ) | $ | — | | $ | (0.4 | ) | $ | 145.2 | | $ | (42.2 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | (4.2 | ) | $ | (11.7 | ) | $ | (2.5 | ) | $ | (6.6 | ) | $ | 1.7 | | $ | (8.8 | ) | $ | — | | $ | 0.4 | | $ | (25.0 | ) | $ | (6.7 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 79.5 | % | 115.9 | % | 69.3 | % | 88.2 | % | 43.9 | % | 87.0 | % | — | | — | | 85.9 | % | 102.8 | % |
Expense ratio | | 38.9 | % | 38.8 | % | 37.8 | % | 28.0 | % | 46.2 | % | -0.3 | % | — | | — | | 34.9 | % | -16.6 | % |
Combined ratio | | 118.3 | % | 154.7 | % | 107.1 | % | 116.2 | % | 90.1 | % | 86.7 | % | — | | — | | 120.8 | % | 86.2 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Equity layer credit protection | | $ | 12.6 | | $ | 7.6 | | $ | 19.5 | | $ | 22.1 | | $ | 5.4 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 61.8 | | $ | 5.4 | |
Trade credit reinsurance | | 10.7 | | 14.3 | | 11.6 | | 14.6 | | 9.3 | | (34.6 | ) | | | — | | 51.2 | | (25.3 | ) |
Title reinsurance | | 1.2 | | 1.2 | | 4.6 | | 3.7 | | 2.4 | | 0.8 | | — | | — | | 10.7 | | 3.2 | |
Life accident and health reinsurance | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Auto residual value reinsurance | | 0.7 | | 0.7 | | 0.7 | | 2.1 | | — | | (32.2 | ) | — | | — | | 4.2 | | (32.2 | ) |
Affiliate reinsurance | | (2.3 | ) | (2.4 | ) | (1.2 | ) | (1.8 | ) | — | | — | | — | | — | | (7.7 | ) | — | |
Total net earned premiums | | $ | 22.9 | | $ | 21.4 | | $ | 35.2 | | $ | 40.7 | | $ | 17.1 | | $ | (66.0 | ) | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 120.2 | | $ | (48.9 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) (1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Equity layer credit protection | | $ | 1.1 | | $ | (5.7 | ) | $ | (15.2 | ) | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 2.2 | | $ | 0.5 | | $ | — | | $ | 0.4 | | $ | (1.0 | ) | $ | 3.1 | |
Trade credit reinsurance | | (1.4 | ) | (4.0 | ) | (0.1 | ) | 2.2 | | 1.3 | | (4.2 | ) | — | | — | | (3.3 | ) | (2.9 | ) |
Title reinsurance | | 1.0 | | 0.8 | | 2.9 | | 2.1 | | 0.7 | | 0.3 | | — | | — | | 6.8 | | 1.0 | |
Life accident and health reinsurance | | (0.5 | ) | — | | (0.1 | ) | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | (0.6 | ) | — | |
Auto residual value reinsurance | | (2.5 | ) | (1.9 | ) | 0.1 | | (30.8 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (5.4 | ) | — | | — | | (35.1 | ) | (7.9 | ) |
Affiliate reinsurance | | (1.9 | ) | (0.9 | ) | 9.9 | | 1.1 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 8.2 | | — | |
Total underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | (4.2 | ) | $ | (11.7 | ) | $ | (2.5 | ) | $ | (6.6 | ) | $ | 1.7 | | $ | (8.8 | ) | $ | — | | $ | 0.4 | | $ | (25.0 | ) | $ | (6.7 | ) |
1. 2Q-04 and full year 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
11
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve
(dollars in millions)
| | As of December 31, 2004 | | As of December 31, 2003 | |
Loss and LAE reserves by segment: | | | | | |
Financial guaranty direct | | $ | 19.9 | | $ | 29.9 | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance | | 78.8 | | 72.8 | |
Mortgage guaranty | | 11.2 | | 24.1 | |
Other | | 116.6 | | 395.8 | |
Total | | $ | 226.5 | | $ | 522.6 | |
| | As of December 31, 2004 | | As of December 31, 2003 | |
Loss and LAE reserves by type: | | | | | |
Case basis | | $ | 53.5 | | $ | 128.9 | |
IBNR | | 105.8 | | 319.0 | |
Portfolio | | 67.2 | | 74.7 | |
Total | | $ | 226.5 | | $ | 522.6 | |
| | As of December 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Total Financial Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case basis | | $ | 4.3 | | $ | 29.1 | | $ | 0.8 | | $ | 34.2 | | $ | 19.3 | | $ | 53.5 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 8.5 | | 8.5 | | 97.3 | | 105.8 | |
Portfolio | | 15.6 | | 49.7 | | 1.9 | | 67.2 | | — | | 67.2 | |
Total | | $ | 19.9 | | $ | 78.8 | | $ | 11.2 | | $ | 109.9 | | $ | 116.6 | | $ | 226.5 | |
| | As of December 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Total Financial Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case basis | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 35.3 | | $ | 1.8 | | $ | 39.1 | | $ | 89.8 | | $ | 128.9 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 13.1 | | 13.1 | | 305.9 | | 319.0 | |
Portfolio | | 27.9 | | 37.5 | | 9.2 | | 74.7 | | — | | 74.7 | |
Total | | $ | 29.9 | | $ | 72.8 | | $ | 24.1 | | $ | 126.9 | | $ | 395.8 | | $ | 522.6 | |
12
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Fixed Income Investment Portfolio
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
| | Amortized Cost | | Pre-Tax Book Yield | | Fair Value | | Duration | | Annualized Investment Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | $ | 47.5 | | 4.7 | % | $ | 50.3 | | 7.2 | | $ | 2.2 | |
Agency obligations | | 211.2 | | 5.2 | % | 219.8 | | 4.8 | | 10.9 | |
Foreign government securities | | 18.5 | | 4.9 | % | 18.8 | | 3.0 | | 0.9 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 326.3 | | 4.6 | % | 345.2 | | 7.3 | | 14.9 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 483.1 | | 4.9 | % | 522.9 | | 7.0 | | 23.9 | |
Corporate securities | | 160.6 | | 5.9 | % | 170.3 | | 5.4 | | 9.4 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 430.3 | | 5.1 | % | 440.1 | | 3.6 | | 22.1 | |
PACs | | 119.9 | | 4.6 | % | 120.4 | | 2.2 | | 5.5 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 76.2 | | 5.4 | % | 77.4 | | 2.2 | | 4.1 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | 1,873.4 | | 5.0 | % | 1,965.1 | | 5.4 | | 93.9 | |
Short-term investments | | 175.8 | | 1.9 | % | 175.8 | | — | | 3.3 | |
Total investments | | $ | 2,049.3 | | 4.8 | % | $ | 2,140.9 | | 5.0 | | $ | 97.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Fair Value | | % | |
Maturity schedule: | | | | | |
Due within one year | | $ | 15.0 | | 0.8 | % |
Due in one to five years | | 174.3 | | 8.9 | % |
Due in five to ten years | | 345.1 | | 17.6 | % |
Due in greater than ten years | | 870.1 | | 44.3 | % |
Mortgage-backed securities | | 560.5 | | 28.5 | % |
Total | | $ | 1,965.1 | | 100.0 | % |
| | Fair Value | | % | |
Quality distribution: | | | | | |
Treasury and Government Obligations | | $ | 50.3 | | 2.6 | % |
Agency Obligations | | 219.8 | | 11.1 | % |
AAA/Aaa | | 1,257.3 | | 64.0 | % |
AA/Aa | | 307.3 | | 15.6 | % |
A/A | | 129.0 | | 6.6 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 1.4 | | 0.1 | % |
Total | | $ | 1,965.1 | | 100.0 | % |
13
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | | As of December 31, 2004: | |
| | Gross Par Written | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
Sector | 4Q 2004 | | 4Q 2003 | |
Public finance | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation bonds | | $ | 192 | | $ | 431 | | $ | 12,698 | | 13.3 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 350 | | 447 | | 10,917 | | 11.4 | % | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 590 | | 565 | | 10,387 | | 10.9 | % | A+ | |
Transportation | | 98 | | 107 | | 6,886 | | 7.2 | % | A | |
Healthcare | | 247 | | 153 | | 6,598 | | 6.9 | % | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 44 | | 62 | | 2,244 | | 2.3 | % | A- | |
Structured municipal (1) | | — | | — | | 1,366 | | 1.4 | % | AAA | |
Housing | | 70 | | 50 | | 1,336 | | 1.4 | % | AA- | |
Other public finance (2) | | 35 | | 32 | | 1,064 | | 1.1 | % | A- | |
Higher education | | 11 | | 58 | | 972 | | 1.0 | % | A+ | |
Total public finance | | $ | 1,637 | | $ | 1,906 | | $ | 54,468 | | 57.0 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | |
CDO’s (3) | | $ | 1,823 | | $ | 344 | | $ | 17,256 | | 18.1 | % | AA+ | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 5,979 | | 970 | | 11,933 | | 12.5 | % | AA | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 173 | | 524 | | 4,824 | | 5.0 | % | AA- | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 16 | | 247 | | 3,451 | | 3.6 | % | A- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 134 | | 131 | | 2,035 | | 2.1 | % | A+ | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | — | | 1,624 | | 1.7 | % | A+ | |
Total structured finance | | $ | 8,125 | | $ | 2,216 | | $ | 41,124 | | 43.0 | % | AA | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Total exposure | | $ | 9,762 | | $ | 4,121 | | $ | 95,592 | | 100.0 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 271 | | $ | — | | $ | 2,325 | | NA | | NA | |
(1). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3). Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(5). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(6). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(7). Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(8). Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
14
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 29,696 | | 31.1 | % | $ | 26,374 | | 30.1 | % |
AA/Aa | | 19,856 | | 20.8 | % | 17,587 | | 20.1 | % |
A/A | | 31,393 | | 32.8 | % | 30,008 | | 34.3 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 13,137 | | 13.7 | % | 12,051 | | 13.8 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1,509 | | 1.6 | % | 1,505 | | 1.7 | % |
| | $ | 95,592 | | 100 | % | $ | 87,524 | | 100 | % |
Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of December 31, 2004
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 7,472 | | 7.8 | % |
New York | | 5,495 | | 5.7 | % |
Texas | | 3,201 | | 3.3 | % |
Illinois | | 2,876 | | 3.0 | % |
Florida | | 2,756 | | 2.9 | % |
New Jersey | | 2,441 | | 2.6 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 2,061 | | 2.2 | % |
Massachusetts | | 1,842 | | 1.9 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 1,775 | | 1.9 | % |
Washington | | 1,702 | | 1.8 | % |
Other - Muni | | 18,614 | | 19.5 | % |
Other - Non Muni | | 35,149 | | 36.8 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 85,386 | | 89.3 | % |
| | | | | | | |
International: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 5,263 | | 5.5 | % |
Germany | | 1,082 | | 1.1 | % |
Australia | | 537 | | 0.6 | % |
Brazil | | 362 | | 0.4 | % |
Italy | | 280 | | 0.3 | % |
Other | | 2,681 | | 2.8 | % |
Total International | | $ | 10,205 | | 10.7 | % |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
Total | | $ | 95,592 | | 100 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Distribution by ratings of CDO and credit derivative exposures
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 20,213 | | 73.2 | % | $ | 20,703 | | 76.1 | % |
AA/Aa | | 3,451 | | 12.5 | % | 2,534 | | 9.3 | % |
A/A | | 2,828 | | 10.2 | % | 2,575 | | 9.5 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 1,011 | | 3.7 | % | 1,216 | | 4.5 | % |
Below investment grade | | 128 | | 0.5 | % | 158 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 27,631 | | 100 | % | $ | 27,187 | | 100 | % |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
15
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposure
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type | | Weighted Average Remaining Life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (8) | |
| | | | | | | |
Public finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 19.3 | | $ | 374.1 | | BB | |
Healthcare | | 12.5 | | 94.0 | | BB | |
General obligation bonds | | 11.1 | | 69.0 | | BB+ | |
Other public finance (1) | | 26.1 | | 44.1 | | BB- | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 17.4 | | 16.9 | | BB- | |
Municipal utilities | | 10.9 | | 14.0 | | C | |
Tax backed | | 9.8 | | 8.3 | | BB- | |
Housing | | 8.1 | | 3.3 | | B | |
Higher education | | 11.3 | | 1.0 | | BB+ | |
Structured municipal (2) | | — | | — | | — | |
Total public finance | | 17.4 | | $ | 624.8 | | BB | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | |
Consumer receivables (3) | | 2.2 | | $ | 496.7 | | BB | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 6.7 | | 150.0 | | B- | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 6.7 | | 121.6 | | B | |
CDO’s (5) | | 3.0 | | 115.8 | | BB- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 4.1 | | 0.1 | | BB- | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | — | | — | |
Total structured finance | | 3.7 | | $ | 884.2 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total exposure | | 9.4 | | $ | 1,509.0 | | BB- | |
(1). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(2). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(3). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(4). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(5). Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(6). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(7). Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(8). Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
16
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Closely Monitored Credits
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category (1)
| | December 31, 2004 | | # of credits in category | | December 31, 2003 | | # of credits in category | |
Description | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | |
Fundamentally sound, normal risk | | $ | 93,855 | | 98.2 | % | | | | $ | 85,795 | | 98.0 | % | | |
Closely monitored: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Category 1 | | 1,490 | | 1.6 | % | 35 | | 1,310 | | 1.5 | % | 29 | |
Category 2 | | 165 | | 0.2 | % | 9 | | 252 | | 0.3 | % | 10 | |
Category 3 | | 70 | | 0.1 | % | 16 | | 131 | | 0.1 | % | 17 | |
Category 4 | | 12 | | — | | 8 | | 36 | | — | | 3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Subtotal | | 1,737 | | 1.8 | % | 68 | | 1,729 | | 2.0 | % | 59 | |
Total | | $ | 95,592 | | 100 | % | | | $ | 87,524 | | 100 | % | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
(1). Our risk management department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; losses likely, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid or incurred). Credits that are not included in the closely monitored credit list are categorized as fundamentally sound, normal risk.
17
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Public Finance Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 845 | | AA- | |
California State General Obligation & Leases | | 834 | | A- | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 711 | | A- | |
Denver Colorado Airport System | | 626 | | A | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | | 606 | | A | |
Chicago Illinois General Obligation | | 577 | | A+ | |
New York City General Obligation & Leases | | 553 | | A | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 544 | | A- | |
New York State Metro Trans Auth | | 535 | | A | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 522 | | AA+ | |
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System | | 504 | | A+ | |
Energy Northwest | | 481 | | AA- | |
San Francisco California Airport | | 477 | | A | |
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 463 | | A- | |
Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation | | 455 | | AA- | |
New York State General Obligation | | 427 | | AA | |
Mental Health Services Facilities - New York | | 371 | | AA- | |
Los Angeles County Metro Trans | | 356 | | AA | |
Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina | | 345 | | AA- | |
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System | | 324 | | A | |
Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education | | 307 | | A+ | |
Puerto Rico Government Development Bank | | 300 | | AAA/A+(2) | |
Illinois State General Obligation | | 295 | | AA | |
Los Angeles County California Pension Obligation | | 274 | | A | |
Chicago O’Hare International Airport | | 271 | | A+ | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 public finance exposures | | $ | 12,003 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
(2). $267 million of the net par for this credit is wrapped by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company
18
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
Park Place (Ameriquest) PPSI 2004-MHQ1 Class A-1 | | $ | 1,574 | | AAA | |
Ameriquest Mortgage Securities Inc. 2004-R10 A-1 | | 1,108 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2004-W11 Class A-1 | | 992 | | AAA | |
Structured Finance Corporate Pool | | 884 | | AAA | |
Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2004-FR3 2-A | | 747 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 740 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 619 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 606 | | A+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust | | 550 | | AAA | |
Field Point I & II, Limited Class A1 & A2 | | 540 | | AA- | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 | | 513 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 500 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 470 | | AA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 430 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 410 | | AAA | |
Synthetic Sub-Prime RMBS | | 406 | | AAA | |
Providian Gateway Master Trust | | 384 | | IG/NIG(2) | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 347 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 313 | | BBB+ | |
Private Sub-Prime RMBS | | 284 | | AAA | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 structured finance exposures | | $ | 14,610 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
(2). $305 million of the net par for this credit has investment grade rating ranging from BBB- to BBB+ and $79 million of the net par has non-investment grade rating of BB+
19
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Single Name Corporate CDS Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Obligor | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
General Electric Capital Corp. | | $ | 60 | | AAA | |
Allianz AG | | 53 | | AA- | |
American International Group | | 50 | | AAA | |
Fannie Mae | | 45 | | AAA | |
Oesterreichische Elektrizitaertswirtschafts AG | | 39 | | A | |
Citigroup Inc. | | 39 | | AA- | |
ABN Amro Bank NV | | 30 | | AA- | |
American Express Corp. | | 30 | | A+ | |
Bellsouth Corp. | | 30 | | A | |
Freddie Mac | | 30 | | AAA | |
Total top 10 single name CDS exposures | | $ | 405 | | | |
| | Gross Par Written | | Net Par Outstanding | |
Single name corporate CDS by rating | | 4Q-04 | | 4Q-03 | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | — | | $ | — | | 340 | |
AA/Aa | | — | | — | | 293 | |
A/A | | — | | — | | 811 | |
BBB/Baa | | — | | — | | 181 | |
Below investment grade | | — | | — | | — | |
Total | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 1,624 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | |
Single name corporate CDS run-off | | 2005(2) | | 2006 | | 2007 | | 2008 | | 2009 | |
Beginning par outstanding | | $ | 1,624 | | $ | 636 | | $ | 450 | | $ | 219 | | $ | 119 | |
Scheduled runoff amount | | 988 | | 186 | | 231 | | 100 | | 10 | |
Ending par outstanding | | $ | 636 | | $ | 450 | | $ | 219 | | $ | 119 | | $ | 109 | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
(2). Beginning balance as of January 1, 2005
20
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of December 31, 2004 | | As of December 31, 2003 | |
| | AGC | | AGR (1) | | Consolidated | | AGC | | AGR (1) | | Consolidated | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | $ | 406 | | $ | 186 | | $ | 592 | | $ | 467 | | $ | 233 | | $ | 700 | |
Contingency reserve | | 518 | | — | | 518 | | 400 | | — | | 400 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 237 | | 596 | | 833 | | 256 | | 560 | | 816 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 103 | | 135 | | 55 | | 390 | | 445 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 1,193 | | $ | 885 | | $ | 2,078 | | $ | 1,178 | | $ | 1,183 | | $ | 2,361 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 237 | | $ | 596 | | $ | 833 | | $ | 256 | | $ | 560 | | $ | 816 | |
Contingency reserve | | 518 | | — | | 518 | | 400 | | — | | 400 | |
Statutory capital | | 755 | | 596 | | 1,351 | | $ | 656 | | $ | 560 | | $ | 1,216 | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | 406 | | 186 | | 592 | | 467 | | 233 | | 700 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 103 | | 135 | | 55 | | 390 | | 445 | |
Total policyholders’ reserves | | 438 | | 289 | | 727 | | $ | 522 | | $ | 623 | | $ | 1,145 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 268 | | 132 | | 400 | | 293 | | 90 | | 383 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 255 | | — | | 255 | | 255 | | — | | 255 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,716 | | $ | 1,017 | | $ | 2,733 | | $ | 1,726 | | $ | 1,273 | | $ | 2,999 | |
(1). AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements
(2). Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums
21
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, expect per share amounts)
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
| | Year Ended December 31, | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | 2002 | | 2001 | | 2000 | |
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross premiums written | | $ | 190.9 | | $ | 349.2 | | $ | 417.2 | | $ | 442.9 | | $ | 206.0 | |
Net earned premiums | | 187.9 | | 310.9 | | 247.4 | | 293.5 | | 140.7 | |
Net investment income | | 94.8 | | 96.3 | | 97.2 | | 99.5 | | 98.1 | |
Total expenses | | 114.6 | | 266.1 | | 218.8 | | 282.8 | | 131.8 | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 233.3 | | 246.2 | | 83.2 | | 110.1 | | 118.1 | |
Net income | | 182.8 | | 214.5 | | 72.6 | | 63.8 | | 93.2 | |
Operating income | | 141.1 | | 127.3 | | 115.7 | | 96.1 | | 87.6 | |
Net income per diluted share | | $ | 2.44 | | $ | 2.86 | | $ | 0.97 | | $ | 0.85 | | $ | 1.24 | |
Operating income per diluted share | | $ | 1.88 | | $ | 1.70 | | $ | 1.54 | | $ | 1.28 | | $ | 1.17 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Ratios | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | -17.0 | % | 46.5 | % | 48.6 | % | 60.5 | % | 21.6 | % |
Expense ratio | | 65.4 | % | 37.2 | % | 35.5 | % | 30.6 | % | 61.2 | % |
Combined ratio | | 48.4 | % | 83.7 | % | 84.1 | % | 91.1 | % | 82.8 | % |
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period) | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total investments and cash | | $ | 2,157.9 | | $ | 2,222.1 | | $ | 2,061.9 | | $ | 1,710.8 | | $ | 1,549.6 | |
Total assets | | 2,694.0 | | 2,857.9 | | 2,719.9 | | 2,322.1 | | 1,913.7 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | 521.3 | | 625.4 | | 613.3 | | 500.3 | | 444.6 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 226.5 | | 522.6 | | 458.8 | | 401.1 | | 171.0 | |
Long-term debt | | 197.4 | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | 150.0 | | 150.0 | |
Shareholders’ equity | | 1,527.6 | | 1,437.6 | | 1,257.2 | | 1,061.6 | | 994.5 | |
Book value per share | | $ | 20.19 | | $ | 19.17 | | $ | 16.76 | | $ | 14.15 | | $ | 13.26 | |
Other Financial Information (end of period) | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service outstanding | | $ | 136,120 | | $ | 130,047 | | $ | 124,082 | | $ | 117,909 | | $ | 102,744 | |
Net par amount outstanding | | 95,592 | | 87,524 | | 80,394 | | 75,249 | | 65,756 | |
Assured Guaranty Corp.
| | Year Ended December 31, | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | 2002 | | 2001 | | 2000 | |
Statutory Data | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 103.2 | | $ | 66.6 | | $ | 46.2 | | $ | 44.9 | | $ | 60.5 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 236.7 | | $ | 255.6 | | $ | 287.0 | | $ | 334.0 | | $ | 323.4 | |
Contingency reserve | | 518.4 | | 400.0 | | 307.0 | | 223.1 | | 180.6 | |
Statutory capital | | 755.1 | | 655.6 | | 594.0 | | 557.2 | | 504.0 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | 405.8 | | 466.7 | | 369.9 | | 351.5 | �� | 330.2 | |
Present value of installment premiums | | 267.8 | | 293.3 | | 220.4 | | 149.2 | | 89.1 | |
Premium resources | | 673.6 | | 760.0 | | 590.3 | | 500.7 | | 419.3 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 31.8 | | 55.0 | | 40.8 | | 20.5 | | 15.0 | |
Standby line of credit / stop loss | | 255.0 | | 255.0 | | 415.0 | | 450.0 | | 250.0 | |
Total claims-paying resources | | $ | 1,715.5 | | $ | 1,725.6 | | $ | 1,640.1 | | $ | 1,528.4 | | $ | 1,188.3 | |
Statutory Financial Ratios | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | -8.4 | % | 25.9 | % | 35.4 | % | 18.3 | % | -0.7 | % |
Expense ratio | | 107.4 | % | 32.0 | % | 46.0 | % | 50.9 | % | 46.7 | % |
Combined ratio | | 99.0 | % | 57.9 | % | 81.4 | % | 69.2 | % | 46.0 | % |
Other Financial Information (end of period) | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service outstanding | | $ | 105,831 | | $ | 117,406 | | $ | 113,074 | | $ | 108,135 | | $ | 87,363 | |
Net par amount outstanding | | 74,001 | | 78,399 | | 72,259 | | 69,178 | | 56,557 | |
22
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended December 31, | | % Change versus | | Year Ended December 31 | | % Change versus | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | 4Q-03 | | 2004 | | 2003 | | 2003 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 36.8 | | $ | 49.1 | | -25 | % | $ | 168.7 | | $ | 219.9 | | -23 | % |
Net written premiums | | 16.9 | | 48.9 | | -65 | % | 59.9 | | 256.5 | | -77 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 38.2 | | 45.0 | | -15 | % | 122.0 | | 175.4 | | -30 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 13.1 | | 12.4 | | 6 | % | 52.1 | | 47.2 | | 10 | % |
Other income | | 0.2 | | 0.3 | | -33 | % | 0.2 | | 1.3 | | -85 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 51.5 | | $ | 57.7 | | -11 | % | $ | 174.3 | | $ | 223.9 | | -22 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 1.8 | | 17.9 | | -90 | % | 0.4 | | 55.1 | | -99 | % |
Profit commission expenses | | 0.8 | | 0.6 | | 33 | % | 1.0 | | 1.7 | | -41 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 9.0 | | 8.5 | | 6 | % | 34.3 | | 46.6 | | -26 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 11.5 | | 8.9 | | 29 | % | 41.3 | | 23.4 | | 76 | % |
Goodwill impairment | | — | | — | | — | | 1.6 | | — | | NM | |
Total expenses | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | 35.8 | | -35 | % | $ | 78.6 | | $ | 126.7 | | -38 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 28.4 | | 21.9 | | 30 | % | 95.7 | | 97.2 | | -2 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 9.8 | | 5.3 | | 85 | % | 26.3 | | 24.9 | | 6 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 18.6 | | $ | 16.6 | | 12 | % | $ | 69.4 | | $ | 72.3 | | -4 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.4 | | (0.1 | ) | NM | | 0.6 | | 1.4 | | -57 | % |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 9.1 | | 20.0 | | -55 | % | 31.2 | | 31.6 | | -1 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 28.0 | | $ | 36.5 | | -23 | % | $ | 101.2 | | $ | 105.2 | | -4 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
23
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | |
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value | | $ | 1,172.3 | | $ | 1,126.7 | |
Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market | | 66.1 | | 55.1 | |
Total investments | | 1,238.4 | | 1,181.8 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 2.8 | | 18.0 | |
Accrued investment income | | 14.5 | | 14.0 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 140.3 | | 146.9 | |
Premiums receivable | | 48.9 | | 31.5 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 49.7 | | 7.3 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 36.4 | | — | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 29.4 | | — | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 87.1 | |
Current income taxes receivable | | — | | — | |
Other assets | | 10.7 | | 15.0 | |
Total assets | | $ | 1,656.5 | | $ | 1,501.6 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 369.3 | | $ | 389.0 | |
Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 118.4 | | 106.3 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 4.2 | | 4.0 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 64.9 | | 5.2 | |
Deferred income taxes | | 58.3 | | 77.9 | |
Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments | | — | | 6.4 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | — | | 18.5 | |
Other liabilities | | 33.9 | | 17.5 | |
Total liabilities | | 649.0 | | 624.8 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 15.0 | | 15.0 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 386.4 | | 351.2 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 42.7 | | 45.3 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (5.8 | ) | (2.8 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 569.2 | | 468.1 | |
Total shareholder’s equity | | 1,007.5 | | 876.7 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | $ | 1,656.5 | | $ | 1,501.6 | |
24
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Fixed Income Investment Portfolio
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
| | Amortized Cost | | Pre-Tax Book Yield | | Fair Value | | Duration | | Annualized Investment Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | $ | 9.6 | | 3.9 | % | $ | 9.7 | | 1.6 | | $ | 0.4 | |
Agency obligations | | 33.5 | | 4.3 | % | 34.5 | | 3.5 | | 1.5 | |
Foreign government securities | | 18.3 | | 4.9 | % | 18.6 | | 2.9 | | 0.9 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 315.3 | | 4.6 | % | 333.5 | | 7.1 | | 14.4 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 450.2 | | 5.0 | % | 489.0 | | 7.1 | | 22.5 | |
Corporate securities | | 70.9 | | 5.2 | % | 73.9 | | 4.7 | | 3.7 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 187.2 | | 4.9 | % | 189.7 | | 2.8 | | 9.1 | |
PACs | | 10.4 | | 3.8 | % | 10.3 | | 3.1 | | 0.4 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 12.7 | | 4.3 | % | 13.1 | | 2.3 | | 0.5 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | $ | 1,108.1 | | 4.8 | % | $ | 1,172.3 | | 5.9 | | $ | 53.2 | |
Short-term investments | | 66.1 | | 1.8 | % | 66.1 | | — | | 1.2 | |
Total investments | | $ | 1,174.2 | | 4.6 | % | $ | 1,238.4 | | 5.6 | | $ | 54.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | | | |
Maturity schedule: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Due within one year | | $ | 5.8 | | 0.5 | % | | | | | | |
Due in one to five years | | 119.2 | | 10.2 | % | | | | | | |
Due in five to ten years | | 205.6 | | 17.5 | % | | | | | | |
Due in greater than ten years | | 641.7 | | 54.7 | % | | | | | | |
Mortgage-backed securities | | 200.0 | | 17.1 | % | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 1,172.3 | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | | | |
Quality distribution: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treasury and Government Obligations | | $ | 9.7 | | 0.8 | % | | | | | | |
Agency Obligations | | 34.5 | | 2.9 | % | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | 844.4 | | 72.0 | % | | | | | | |
AA/Aa | | 202.8 | | 17.3 | % | | | | | | |
A/A | | 80.9 | | 6.9 | % | | | | | | |
BBB/Baa | | — | | 0.0 | % | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 1,172.3 | | 100.0 | % | | | | | | |
25
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | As of December 31, 2004: | |
Sector | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
Public finance | | | | | | | |
General obligation bonds | | $ | 9,741 | | 13.2 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 8,515 | | 11.5 | % | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 8,396 | | 11.3 | % | A+ | |
Transportation | | 5,793 | | 7.8 | % | A | |
Healthcare | | 3,886 | | 5.3 | % | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 1,766 | | 2.4 | % | A- | |
Housing | | 1,135 | | 1.5 | % | AA- | |
Structured municipal (1) | | 1,041 | | 1.4 | % | AAA | |
Other public finance (2) | | 835 | | 1.1 | % | A- | |
Higher education | | 823 | | 1.1 | % | A+ | |
Total public finance | | $ | 41,931 | | 56.7 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | |
CDO’s (3) | | $ | 14,425 | | 19.5 | % | AA+ | |
Mortgage-backed & home equity | | 8,775 | | 11.9 | % | AA | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 4,240 | | 5.7 | % | AA- | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 3,051 | | 4.1 | % | A- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 1,580 | | 2.1 | % | A+ | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | 0.0 | % | — | |
Total structured finance | | $ | 32,071 | | 43.3 | % | AA | |
| | | | | | | |
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 74,001 | | 100.0 | % | AA- | |
(1). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3). Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(5). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(6). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(7). Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(8). Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
26
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 22,726 | | 30.7 | % | $ | 22,268 | | 28.4 | % |
AA/Aa | | 15,969 | | 21.6 | % | 16,211 | | 20.7 | % |
A/A | | 23,741 | | 32.1 | % | 27,208 | | 34.7 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 10,122 | | 13.7 | % | 11,258 | | 14.4 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1,443 | | 2.0 | % | 1,454 | | 1.9 | % |
| | $ | 74,001 | | 100 | % | $ | 78,399 | | 100 | % |
Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of December 31, 2004
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 5,658 | | 7.6 | % |
New York | | 4,256 | | 5.8 | % |
Texas | | 2,470 | | 3.3 | % |
Illinois | | 2,401 | | 3.2 | % |
Florida | | 2,225 | | 3.0 | % |
New Jersey | | 1,933 | | 2.6 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 1,700 | | 2.3 | % |
Massachusetts | | 1,557 | | 2.1 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 1,416 | | 1.9 | % |
Washington | | 1,212 | | 1.6 | % |
Other - Muni | | 11,383 | | 15.4 | % |
Other - Non Muni | | 30,252 | | 40.9 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 66,464 | | 89.8 | % |
International: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 4,011 | | 5.4 | % |
Germany | | 754 | | 1.0 | % |
Australia | | 428 | | 0.6 | % |
Brazil | | 328 | | 0.4 | % |
Italy | | 220 | | 0.3 | % |
Other | | 1,796 | | 2.4 | % |
Total International | | $ | 7,537 | | 10.2 | % |
| | | | | |
Total | | $ | 74,001 | | 100 | % |
Distribution by ratings of CDO and credit derivative exposures
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 15,325 | | 75.5 | % | $ | 17,584 | | 74.9 | % |
AA/Aa | | 2,807 | | 13.8 | % | 2,342 | | 10.0 | % |
A/A | | 1,494 | | 7.4 | % | 2,420 | | 10.3 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 574 | | 2.8 | % | 1,011 | | 4.3 | % |
Below investment grade | | 99 | | 0.5 | % | 135 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 20,299 | | 100 | % | $ | 23,491 | | 100 | % |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
27
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Non-Investment Grade Exposure
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type | | Weighted Average Remaining Life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating(8) | |
| | | | | | | |
Public Finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 19.3 | | $ | 374.1 | | BB | |
Healthcare | | 12.2 | | 80.4 | | BB | |
General obligation bonds | | 11.2 | | 47.3 | | BB+ | |
Other public finance (1) | | 26.1 | | 44.1 | | BB- | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 17.4 | | 16.9 | | BB- | |
Municipal utilities | | 10.9 | | 14.0 | | C | |
Tax backed | | 9.8 | | 8.3 | | BB- | |
Housing | | 8.1 | | 3.3 | | B | |
Higher education | | 11.3 | | 1.0 | | BB+ | |
Structured municipal (2) | | — | | — | | — | |
Total Public finance | | 17.7 | | $ | 589.6 | | BB | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured Finance | | | | | | | |
Consumer receivables (3) | | 2.2 | | $ | 496.2 | | BB | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 6.3 | | 136.4 | | B- | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 6.7 | | 121.6 | | B | |
CDO’s (5) | | 3.3 | | 99.3 | | B+ | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 4.1 | | 0.1 | | BB- | |
Single name corporate CDS (7) | | — | | — | | — | |
Total structured finance | | 3.6 | | $ | 853.5 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total exposure | | 9.4 | | $ | 1,443.1 | | BB- | |
(1). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(2). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(3). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(4). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(5). Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(6). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(7). Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.
(8). Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
28
Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Public Finance Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 756 | | AA- | |
California State General Obligation & Leases | | 578 | | A- | |
New York State Metro Trans Auth | | 476 | | A | |
Denver Colorado Airport System | | 466 | | A | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 464 | | A- | |
Chicago Illinois General Obligation | | 463 | | A+ | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 457 | | A- | |
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 451 | | A- | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | | 448 | | A | |
San Francisco California Airport | | 422 | | A | |
Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation | | 420 | | AA- | |
New York State General Obligation | | 392 | | AA | |
Energy Northwest | | 390 | | AA- | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 386 | | AA+ | |
New York City General Obligation | | 347 | | A | |
Los Angeles County Metro Trans | | 314 | | AA | |
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System | | 293 | | A+ | |
Illinois State General Obligation & Leases | | 288 | | AA | |
Massachusetts State Turnpike Authority Metro | | 267 | | A- | |
Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina | | 261 | | AA- | |
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System | | 261 | | A | |
Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education | | 248 | | A+ | |
Intermountain Power Agency | | 243 | | A+ | |
Los Angeles California Unified School District | | 236 | | AA- | |
Pennsylvania State General Obligation | | 232 | | AA | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 public finance exposures | | $ | 9,558 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
29
Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
Park Place (Ameriquest) PPSI 2004-MHQ1 Class A-1 | | $ | 1,181 | | AAA | |
Ameriquest Mortgage Securities Inc. 2004-R10 A-1 | | 831 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2004-W11 Class A-1 | | 744 | | AAA | |
Structured Finance Corporate Pool | | 663 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 619 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 606 | | A+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2004-FR3 2-A | | 561 | | AAA | |
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust | | 550 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 540 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 | | 513 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 500 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 470 | | AA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 430 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 417 | | AAA | |
Field Point I & II, Limited | | 371 | | AA- | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 350 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 347 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 344 | | AAA | |
Providian Gateway Master Trust | | 327 | | IG/NIG(2) | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 313 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic Sub-Prime RMBS | | 305 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 281 | | AAA | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 structured finance exposures | | $ | 12,657 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
(2). $248 million of the net par for this credit has investment grade rating ranging from BBB- to BBB+ and $79 million of the net par has non-investment grade rating of BB+
30
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Statutory Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of: | |
| | December 31, | | December 31, | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 406 | | $ | 467 | |
Contingency reserve | | 518 | | 400 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 237 | | 256 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 55 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 1,193 | | $ | 1,178 | |
| | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 237 | | $ | 256 | |
Contingency reserve | | 518 | | 400 | |
Statutory capital | | 755 | | 656 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | 406 | | 467 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 32 | | 55 | |
Total policyholders’ reserves | | 438 | | 522 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 268 | | 293 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 255 | | 255 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,716 | | $ | 1,726 | |
31
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended | | % Change | | Year Ended | | % Change | |
| | December 31 | | versus | | December 31 | | versus | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | | 4Q-03 | | 2004 | | 2003 | | 2003 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 47.4 | | $ | (2.3 | ) | NM | | $ | 82.9 | | $ | 139.5 | | -41 | % |
Net written premiums | | 44.1 | | 109.0 | | -60 | % | 17.8 | | 232.9 | | -92 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 18.5 | | 41.5 | | -55 | % | 64.0 | | 133.5 | | -52 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 10.5 | | 12.0 | | -13 | % | 42.4 | | 49.0 | | -13 | % |
Other income | | — | | 1.4 | | NM | | 0.6 | | 1.7 | | -65 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 29.0 | | $ | 54.9 | | -47 | % | $ | 107.0 | | $ | 184.2 | | -42 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.6 | ) | 34.8 | | NM | | (32.4 | ) | 89.6 | | NM | |
Profit commission expenses | | 3.3 | | 1.8 | | 83 | % | 14.6 | | 8.2 | | 78 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 2.6 | | (1.2 | ) | NM | | 13.1 | | 7.7 | | 70 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 1.2 | | 14.0 | | -91 | % | 12.5 | | 29.4 | | -57 | % |
Total expenses | | $ | 5.6 | | $ | 49.4 | | -89 | % | $ | 7.8 | | $ | 134.8 | | -94 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 23.4 | | 5.5 | | 325 | % | 99.2 | | 49.4 | | 101 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 1.1 | | (13.9 | ) | NM | | 7.5 | | (12.0 | ) | NM | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 22.3 | | $ | 19.4 | | 15 | % | $ | 91.7 | | $ | 61.4 | | 49 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.3 | | 0.1 | | 200 | % | 7.1 | | 2.4 | | 196 | % |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 2.7 | | 43.3 | | -94 | % | 2.8 | | 51.9 | | -95 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 25.2 | | $ | 62.8 | | -60 | % | $ | 101.6 | | $ | 115.7 | | -12 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
32
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | |
| | December 31, | | December 31, | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value | | $ | 785.7 | | $ | 925.5 | |
Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market | | 103.3 | | 80.8 | |
Total investments | | 889.0 | | 1,006.3 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 3.4 | | 9.6 | |
Accrued investment income | | 7.4 | | 9.7 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 46.0 | | 28.3 | |
Premiums receivable | | 56.9 | | 128.6 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 9.1 | | 7.7 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 88.4 | | 122.5 | |
Deferred tax asset | | 17.9 | | 22.8 | |
Current income tax receivable | | 4.9 | | 4.0 | |
Value of reinsurance business assumed | | — | | 14.2 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 14.3 | | 12.1 | |
Funds held under reinsurance contracts | | 5.7 | | 6.5 | |
Other assets | | 4.2 | | 3.7 | |
Total assets | | $ | 1,147.3 | | $ | 1,376.1 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 195.5 | | $ | 240.4 | |
Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 112.3 | | 416.3 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 57.5 | | 67.2 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 13.1 | | 1.3 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 50.0 | | 9.6 | |
Other liabilities | | 25.9 | | 8.9 | |
Total liabilities | | 454.3 | | 743.8 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 1.4 | | 1.4 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 388.0 | | 386.2 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 23.8 | | 35.8 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (1.1 | ) | (2.6 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 280.9 | | 211.5 | |
Total shareholder’s equity | | 693.0 | | 632.3 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | $ | 1,147.3 | | $ | 1,376.1 | |
33
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | As of December 31, 2004: | |
Sector | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
Public finance | | | | | | | |
General obligation bonds | | $ | 2,957 | | 13.7 | % | A+ | |
Healthcare | | 2,713 | | 12.6 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 2,402 | | 11.1 | % | AA- | |
Tax backed | | 1,991 | | 9.2 | % | AA- | |
Transportation | | 1,094 | | 5.1 | % | A+ | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 478 | | 2.2 | % | BBB+ | |
Structured municipal (1) | | 325 | | 1.5 | % | AAA | |
Other public finance (2) | | 229 | | 1.1 | % | BBB+ | |
Housing | | 201 | | 0.9 | % | A+ | |
Higher education | | 148 | | 0.7 | % | AA- | |
Total public finance | | $ | 12,538 | | 58.1 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | |
Mortgage-backed & home equity | | $ | 3,158 | | 14.6 | % | AA | |
CDO’s (3) | | 2,831 | | 13.1 | % | AAA | |
Single name corporate CDS (4) | | 1,624 | | 7.5 | % | A+ | |
Commercial receivables (5) | | 584 | | 2.7 | % | A | |
Consumer receivables (6) | | 400 | | 1.9 | % | BBB | |
Other structured finance (7) | | 455 | | 2.1 | % | A | |
Total structured finance | | $ | 9,053 | | 41.9 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 21,590 | | 100.0 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 2,325 | | NA | | NA | |
(1). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3). Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4). Single name corporate credit default swaps (“CDS”) includes CDS of Investor-owned utilities.
(5). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(6). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(7). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(8). Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.
34
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 6,971 | | 32.3 | % | $ | 4,106 | | 45.0 | % |
AA/Aa | | 3,887 | | 18.0 | % | 1,375 | | 15.1 | % |
A/A | | 7,652 | | 35.4 | % | 2,800 | | 30.7 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 3,015 | | 14.0 | % | 793 | | 8.7 | % |
Below investment grade | | 66 | | 0.3 | % | 50 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 21,590 | | 100 | % | $ | 9,125 | | 100 | % |
Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of December 31, 2004
| | Net Par | | | |
U.S.: | | Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 1,814 | | 8.4 | % |
New York | | 1,239 | | 5.7 | % |
Texas | | 731 | | 3.4 | % |
Ohio | | 586 | | 2.7 | % |
Florida | | 531 | | 2.5 | % |
New Jersey | | 508 | | 2.4 | % |
Washington | | 490 | | 2.3 | % |
Illinois | | 475 | | 2.2 | % |
Wisconsin | | 404 | | 1.9 | % |
South Carolina | | 390 | | 1.8 | % |
Other - Muni | | 6,856 | | 31.8 | % |
Other - Non Muni | | 4,897 | | 22.7 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 18,922 | | 87.6 | % |
| | Net Par | | | |
International: | | Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 1,253 | | 5.8 | % |
Germany | | 327 | | 1.5 | % |
France | | 134 | | 0.6 | % |
Japan | | 110 | | 0.5 | % |
Netherlands | | 109 | | 0.5 | % |
Other | | 736 | | 3.4 | % |
Total International | | $ | 2,668 | | 12.4 | % |
| | | | | |
Total | | $ | 21,590 | | 100 | % |
Distribution by ratings of CDO and credit derivative exposures
| | December 31, 2004 | | December 31, 2003 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 4,888 | | 66.7 | % | $ | 3,119 | | 84.4 | % |
AA/Aa | | 644 | | 8.8 | % | 192 | | 5.2 | % |
A/A | | 1,334 | | 18.2 | % | 155 | | 4.2 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 437 | | 6.0 | % | 206 | | 5.6 | % |
Below investment grade | | 29 | | 0.4 | % | 24 | | 0.6 | % |
| | $ | 7,332 | | 100 | % | $ | 3,695 | | 100 | % |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating
35
Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.
Capital and Claims Paying Resources (1)
(dollars in millions)
| | As of: | |
| | December 31, | �� | December 31, | |
| | 2004 | | 2003 | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | $ | 186 | | $ | 233 | |
Contingency reserve | | — | | — | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 596 | | 560 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 103 | | 390 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 885 | | $ | 1,183 | |
| | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 596 | | $ | 560 | |
Contingency reserve | | — | | — | |
Statutory capital | | 596 | | 560 | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | 186 | | 233 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 103 | | 390 | |
Total policyholders’ reserves | | 289 | | 623 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 132 | | 90 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | — | | — | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,017 | | $ | 1,273 | |
(1). AGR numbers are our estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements
(2). Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums
36
Endnotes related to non-GAAP measures discussed in the operating supplement:
(a) PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in the current period, including upfront and installment premiums received on contracts written in the current period and the present value of estimated future installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year. We use 6% as the present value discount because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented. Present value of installment premiums in-force, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents our future premiums on our in-force book of installment premium business in our financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments. It is calculated net of reinsurance ceded and using a discount rate of 6%. We believe PVP and Present value of installment premiums in-force are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because they permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which the GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.
(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder’s equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder’s equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of: the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%). The adjustments described above will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value. Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company’s in-force premium and capital base.
| | Investor contacts: |
| | Sabra Purtill |
| | (212) 408-6044 |
| | spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
Assured Guaranty Ltd. | | |
30 Woodbourne Avenue | | Chris McNamee |
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda | | (212) 261-5509 |
www.assuredguaranty.com | | cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com |