Exhibit 99.2

Financial Supplement
First Quarter 2005
March 31, 2005
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our IPO prospectus dated April 22, 2004, our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2004, June 30, 2004 and September 30, 2004 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements, such as its statements regarding PVP, could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions except per share amounts)
| | Quarter Ended March 31, | | % Change versus | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | 1Q-04 | |
| | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis: | | | | | | | |
Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a) | | $ | 88.3 | | $ | 105.1 | | -16 | % |
Less: Installment premium PVP | | 53.5 | | 56.8 | | -6 | % |
Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP | | 34.7 | | 48.3 | | -28 | % |
Plus: Installment GWP | | 42.5 | | 43.7 | | -3 | % |
Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP | | 77.2 | | 92.0 | | -16 | % |
Plus: Other segment GWP | | 0.9 | | (93.6 | ) | NMF | |
Total GWP | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | (1.5 | ) | NMF | |
| | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 44.3 | | $ | 46.9 | | -6 | % |
Less: After-tax realized gains on investments | | 1.5 | | — | | NMF | |
Less: After-tax unrealized gains on derivatives | | 1.5 | | 3.1 | | -52 | % |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 41.3 | | $ | 43.7 | | -5 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 1,537.7 | | $ | 1,510.1 | | 2 | % |
Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1) | | 277.0 | | 247.5 | | 12 | % |
Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax | | 300.3 | | 282.0 | | 6 | % |
Adjusted book value (c) | | $ | 2,115.0 | | $ | 2,039.6 | | 4 | % |
| | | | | | | |
ROE, excluding AOCI | | 12.1 | % | 13.6 | % | | |
Less: After-tax realized gains on investments | | 0.4 | % | 0.0 | % | | |
Less: After-tax unrealized gains on derivatives | | 0.4 | % | 0.9 | % | | |
Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b) | | 11.3 | % | 12.6 | % | | |
| | | | | | | |
Shares outstanding at the end of period (in millions) | | 75.2 | | 75.0 | | — | |
| | | | | | | |
Weighted average shares outstanding (in millions): | | | | | | | |
Basic (2) | | 74.5 | | 75.0 | | -1 | % |
Diluted | | 74.9 | | 75.0 | | — | |
| | | | | | | |
Per diluted share: | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 0.59 | | $ | 0.63 | | -6 | % |
Less: After-tax realized gains on investments | | 0.02 | | — | | NMF | |
Less: After-tax unrealized gains on derivatives | | 0.02 | | 0.04 | | -50 | % |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 0.55 | | $ | 0.58 | | -5 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 20.45 | | $ | 20.13 | | 2 | % |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1) | | 3.68 | | 3.30 | | 12 | % |
Plus: Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax | | 3.99 | | 3.76 | | 6 | % |
Adjusted book value (c) | | $ | 28.12 | | $ | 27.19 | | 3 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
(1). Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax
(2). Historical amounts represent shares issued upon the IPO closing
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
1
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended March 31, | | % Change versus | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | 1Q-04 | |
| | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | (1.5 | ) | NMF | |
Net written premiums | | 76.5 | | (6.9 | ) | NMF | |
| | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 48.1 | | 86.7 | | -45 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 23.1 | | 24.4 | | -5 | % |
Other income | | 0.3 | | 0.5 | | -40 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 71.5 | | $ | 111.6 | | -36 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (9.4 | ) | 23.7 | | NMF | |
Profit commission expense | | 1.0 | | 5.5 | | -82 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 10.2 | | 13.1 | | -22 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 14.5 | | 12.6 | | 15 | % |
Goodwill impairment | | — | | 1.6 | | NMF | |
Interest expense | | 3.3 | | 1.4 | | 136 | % |
Total expenses | | $ | 19.6 | | $ | 58.0 | | -66 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 51.9 | | 53.6 | | -3 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 10.6 | | 9.9 | | 7 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 41.3 | | $ | 43.7 | | -5 | % |
| | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 1.5 | | — | | NMF | |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 1.5 | | 3.1 | | -52 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 44.3 | | $ | 46.9 | | -6 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Per diluted share | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 0.55 | | $ | 0.58 | | -5 | % |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.02 | | — | | NMF | |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 0.02 | | 0.04 | | -50 | % |
Net income | | $ | 0.59 | | $ | 0.63 | | -6 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Weighted average shares outstanding (in thousands) | | | | | | | |
Basic shares outstanding | | 74,458 | | 75,000 | | -1 | % |
Plus: effect of options | | 57 | | — | | — | |
Plus: effect of restricted stock | | 388 | | — | | — | |
Diluted shares outstanding | | 74,903 | | 75,000 | | — | |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
2
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of : | |
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | | $ | 2,083.4 | | $ | 1,965.1 | |
Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value | | 63.5 | | 175.8 | |
Total investments | | 2,146.9 | | 2,140.9 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 21.7 | | 17.0 | |
Accrued investment income | | 23.1 | | 21.9 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 192.2 | | 186.4 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 14.3 | | 15.2 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 118.3 | | 120.2 | |
Premiums receivable | | 42.7 | | 40.8 | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 85.4 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 47.0 | | 43.9 | |
Other assets | | 18.0 | | 22.3 | |
Total assets | | $ | 2,709.7 | | $ | 2,694.0 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserves | | $ | 548.7 | | $ | 521.3 | |
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 218.4 | | 226.5 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 43.9 | | 61.7 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 29.0 | | 25.1 | |
Deferred income taxes | | 39.8 | | 40.1 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 52.4 | | 50.8 | |
Long-term debt | | 197.3 | | 197.4 | |
Other liabilities | | 42.4 | | 43.7 | |
Total liabilities | | 1,172.0 | | 1,166.4 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 0.8 | | 0.8 | |
Treasury stock | | (7.9 | ) | (7.9 | ) |
Additional paid-in capital | | 889.0 | | 894.2 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (11.2 | ) | (6.7 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 610.3 | | 568.3 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 56.7 | | 79.0 | |
Total shareholders’ equity | | 1,537.7 | | 1,527.6 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | $ | 2,709.7 | | $ | 2,694.0 | |
3
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended March 31, 2005 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1) | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Total Financial Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1.6 | | $ | 34.7 | | $ | — | | $ | 36.3 | | | | $ | 36.3 | |
Structured finance | | 35.9 | | 3.1 | | 13.1 | | 52.0 | | | | 52.0 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 37.5 | | $ | 37.7 | | $ | 13.1 | | $ | 88.3 | | | | $ | 88.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 23.8 | | $ | 34.0 | | $ | 19.4 | | $ | 77.2 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 78.1 | |
Net written premiums | | 23.1 | | 34.0 | | 19.4 | | 76.5 | | — | | 76.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 20.4 | | 23.0 | | 4.6 | | 48.1 | | — | | 48.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.5 | ) | (7.1 | ) | 0.2 | | (8.4 | ) | (1.1 | ) | (9.4 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | — | | 1.0 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.5 | | 8.1 | | 0.5 | | 10.2 | | — | | 10.2 | |
Operating expenses | | 9.4 | | 4.4 | | 0.7 | | 14.5 | | — | | 14.5 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 9.4 | | $ | 5.4 | | $ | 2.4 | | $ | 17.3 | | $ | (1.1 | ) | $ | 16.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 11.0 | | $ | 17.6 | | $ | 2.2 | | $ | 30.9 | | $ | 1.1 | | $ | 31.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | -7.1 | % | -30.9 | % | 4.3 | % | -17.4 | % | | | -19.6 | % |
Expense ratio | | 53.1 | % | 54.3 | % | 47.4 | % | 53.3 | % | | | 53.3 | % |
Combined ratio | | 46.0 | % | 23.4 | % | 51.7 | % | 35.9 | % | | | 33.7 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Quarter Ended March 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1) | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Total Financial Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | 45.8 | | $ | — | | $ | 45.8 | | | | $ | 45.8 | |
Structured finance | | 7.9 | | 32.3 | | 19.2 | | 59.3 | | | | 59.3 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 19.2 | | $ | 105.1 | | | | $ | 105.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 25.6 | | $ | 52.4 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 92.0 | | $ | (93.6 | ) | $ | (1.5 | ) |
Net written premiums | | 25.3 | | 52.4 | | 14.0 | | 91.7 | | (98.5 | ) | (6.9 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 40.7 | | 20.4 | | 8.4 | | 69.5 | | 17.2 | | 86.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 13.4 | | 3.9 | | (1.2 | ) | 16.1 | | 7.5 | | 23.7 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.1 | | 5.0 | | 5.1 | | 0.4 | | 5.5 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.4 | | 7.1 | | 0.9 | | 9.4 | | 3.6 | | 13.1 | |
Operating expenses | | 5.5 | | 3.0 | | 0.6 | | 9.1 | | 3.5 | | 12.6 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 20.3 | | $ | 14.1 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 39.7 | | $ | 15.1 | | $ | 54.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 20.4 | | $ | 6.3 | | $ | 3.1 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 2.1 | | $ | 31.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 32.9 | % | 19.1 | % | -14.3 | % | 23.2 | % | 43.6 | % | 27.3 | % |
Expense ratio | | 17.0 | % | 50.0 | % | 77.6 | % | 34.0 | % | 44.0 | % | 36.0 | % |
Combined ratio | | 49.9 | % | 69.1 | % | 63.3 | % | 57.2 | % | 87.6 | % | 63.3 | % |
(1). Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
4
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 1Q-05 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 14.4 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 39.6 | | $ | 37.5 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | (7.9 | ) | (14.4 | ) | (7.9 | ) | (33.9 | ) | (35.8 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | — | | — | | — | | 5.7 | | 1.7 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums | | 25.6 | | 17.7 | | 16.2 | | 15.6 | | 22.1 | |
Financial guaranty direct gross written premiums | | $ | 25.6 | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 23.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 25.6 | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 23.8 | |
Net written premiums | | 25.3 | | 17.3 | | 14.2 | | 20.9 | | 23.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 40.7 | | 16.1 | | 16.5 | | 15.5 | | 20.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 13.4 | | 1.6 | | (1.2 | ) | 1.0 | | (1.5 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.4 | | 0.1 | | 1.4 | | 1.6 | | 1.5 | |
Operating expenses (1) | | 5.5 | | 9.1 | | 8.5 | | 8.6 | | 9.4 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 20.3 | | $ | 10.8 | | $ | 8.7 | | $ | 11.3 | | $ | 9.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 20.4 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 7.8 | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 11.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 32.9 | % | 9.9 | % | -7.3 | % | 6.5 | % | -7.1 | % |
Expense ratio | | 17.0 | % | 57.1 | % | 59.8 | % | 66.3 | % | 53.1 | % |
Combined ratio | | 49.9 | % | 67.0 | % | 52.5 | % | 72.8 | % | 46.0 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | — | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 1.6 | |
Structured finance | | 7.9 | | 11.4 | | 7.9 | | 33.9 | | 35.9 | |
Total | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 14.4 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 39.6 | | $ | 37.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 11.1 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 34.6 | | $ | 32.5 | |
Non-U.S. | | 3.7 | | 3.2 | | — | | 5.0 | | 4.9 | |
Total | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 14.4 | | $ | 7.9 | | $ | 39.6 | | $ | 37.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Par written: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | — | | $ | 246 | | $ | 508 | | $ | 194 | | $ | 77 | |
Structured finance | | 1,488 | | 2,444 | | 854 | | 7,263 | | 1,438 | |
Total | | $ | 1,488 | | $ | 2,691 | | $ | 1,361 | | $ | 7,457 | | $ | 1,515 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 1,435 | | $ | 2,345 | | $ | 508 | | $ | 6,504 | | $ | 1,250 | |
Non-U.S. | | 53 | | 346 | | 853 | | 953 | | 265 | |
Total | | $ | 1,488 | | $ | 2,691 | | $ | 1,361 | | $ | 7,457 | | $ | 1,515 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 2,112 | | $ | 2,321 | | $ | 2,852 | | $ | 3,144 | | $ | 3,146 | |
Structured finance | | 21,737 | | 23,454 | | 23,605 | | 28,468 | | 27,444 | |
Total | | $ | 23,849 | | $ | 25,775 | | $ | 26,457 | | $ | 31,612 | | $ | 30,590 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of installment premiums in force: (a) | | $ | 220.6 | | $ | 219.7 | | $ | 218.9 | | $ | 231.0 | | $ | 238.3 | |
Net unearned premium reserve (2) | | 16.0 | | 17.1 | | 14.7 | | 20.3 | | 23.0 | |
(1). 2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
(2). Unearned premium reserve net of reinsurance
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
5
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 1Q-05 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 40.1 | | $ | 38.9 | | $ | 35.7 | | $ | 37.7 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | (40.0 | ) | (17.2 | ) | (14.5 | ) | (11.6 | ) | (17.8 | ) |
Upfront gross written premiums | | 38.1 | | 22.9 | | 24.5 | | 24.1 | | 20.0 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums (2) | | 14.3 | | 12.9 | | 11.1 | | 12.4 | | 14.0 | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance gross written premiums | | $ | 52.4 | | $ | 35.8 | | $ | 35.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 34.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 52.4 | | $ | 35.8 | | $ | 35.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 34.0 | |
Net written premiums | | 52.4 | | 35.8 | | 35.6 | | 36.3 | | 34.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 20.4 | | 25.6 | | 31.9 | | 36.5 | | 23.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 3.9 | | (0.9 | ) | 10.8 | | 1.6 | | (7.1 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | 0.1 | | 0.3 | | (0.2 | ) | 0.9 | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | 7.1 | | 6.6 | | 12.1 | | 13.0 | | 8.1 | |
Operating expenses (3) | | 3.0 | | 5.0 | | 4.7 | | 4.8 | | 4.4 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 14.1 | | $ | 11.0 | | $ | 27.4 | | $ | 20.2 | | $ | 5.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 6.3 | | $ | 14.6 | | $ | 4.5 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | 17.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 19.1 | % | -3.5 | % | 33.9 | % | 4.4 | % | -30.9 | % |
Expense ratio | | 50.0 | % | 46.5 | % | 51.9 | % | 51.1 | % | 54.3 | % |
Combined ratio | | 69.1 | % | 43.0 | % | 85.8 | % | 55.5 | % | 23.4 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 45.8 | | $ | 31.2 | | $ | 33.9 | | $ | 26.4 | | $ | 34.7 | |
Structured finance | | 32.3 | | 8.9 | | 5.0 | | 9.3 | | 3.1 | |
Total | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 40.1 | | $ | 38.9 | | $ | 35.7 | | $ | 37.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Par written: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1,932 | | $ | 1,590 | | $ | 2,262 | | $ | 1,443 | | $ | 2,206 | |
Structured finance | | 1,154 | | 629 | | 507 | | 861 | | 1,718 | |
Total | | $ | 3,086 | | $ | 2,219 | | $ | 2,769 | | $ | 2,304 | | $ | 3,924 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 51,806 | | $ | 52,061 | | $ | 52,926 | | $ | 51,324 | | $ | 52,579 | |
Structured finance | | 13,935 | | 13,514 | | 13,084 | | 12,656 | | 13,225 | |
Total | | $ | 65,741 | | $ | 65,575 | | $ | 66,010 | | $ | 63,980 | | $ | 65,804 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net premiums earned from refundings | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 5.2 | | $ | 5.0 | | $ | 1.4 | |
Present value of installment premiums in force: (a) | | 140.3 | | 147.2 | | 138.0 | | 138.9 | | 146.9 | |
Net unearned premium reserve (4) | | 436.4 | | 441.0 | | 444.2 | | 443.8 | | 454.8 | |
(1). Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
(2). Installment gross written premiums includes the reclassification of certain deals originally recorded as installment that were discovered during 3Q-04 to be upfront premiums. As a result, prior period amounts have been restated. This reclass had an immaterial impact on our QTD and YTD results of operations and financial condition.
(3). 2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
(4). Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
6
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Mortgage Guaranty Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 1Q-05 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | 19.2 | | $ | — | | $ | 1.1 | | $ | 6.9 | | $ | 13.1 | |
less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | (8.9 | ) | — | | (1.1 | ) | (6.9 | ) | — | |
Upfront gross written premiums | | 10.3 | | — | | — | | — | | 13.1 | |
plus: Installment gross written premiums | | 3.7 | | 0.9 | | 5.3 | | 4.2 | | 6.3 | |
Mortgage guaranty gross written premiums | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 19.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 19.4 | |
Net written premiums | | 14.0 | | 0.9 | | 5.3 | | 4.2 | | 19.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 8.4 | | 15.0 | | 5.1 | | 5.2 | | 4.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.2 | ) | (3.3 | ) | (5.4 | ) | (2.0 | ) | 0.2 | |
Profit commission expense | | 5.0 | | 4.3 | | 1.3 | | 3.5 | | 1.0 | |
Acquisition costs | | 0.9 | | 1.7 | | 0.5 | | 0.6 | | 0.5 | |
Operating expenses (1) | | 0.6 | | 1.1 | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | 0.7 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 5.3 | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | (2.6 | ) | $ | 3.2 | | $ | 2.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 3.1 | | $ | 11.2 | | $ | 7.7 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 2.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | -14.3 | % | -22.0 | % | -105.9 | % | -37.8 | % | 4.3 | % |
Expense ratio | | 77.6 | % | 47.5 | % | 55.5 | % | 98.5 | % | 47.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 63.3 | % | 25.5 | % | -50.4 | % | 60.7 | % | 51.7 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Risk in force | | $ | 2,201 | | $ | 2,394 | | $ | 2,437 | | $ | 2,325 | | $ | 2,582 | |
Risk written | | 237 | | — | | 136 | | 271 | | 419 | |
Net unearned premium reserve (2) | | 57.6 | | 43.5 | | 43.7 | | 42.7 | | 57.5 | |
(1). 2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
(2). Unearned premium reserve net of pre-paid reinsurance
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
7
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Other Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-04 | | 2Q-04 | | 3Q-04 | | 4Q-04 | | 1Q-05 | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | (93.6 | ) | $ | 10.0 | | $ | 5.2 | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | 0.9 | |
Net written premiums | | (98.5 | ) | (84.0 | ) | — | | — | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 17.2 | | (66.0 | ) | — | | — | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 7.5 | | (57.4 | ) | — | | (0.4 | ) | (1.1 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | 0.4 | | 0.2 | | — | | — | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | 3.6 | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Operating expenses (1) | | 3.5 | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Total expenses | | $ | 15.1 | | $ | (57.2 | ) | $ | — | | $ | (0.4 | ) | $ | (1.1 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 2.1 | | $ | (8.8 | ) | $ | — | | $ | 0.4 | | $ | 1.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 43.6 | % | 87.0 | % | — | | — | | — | |
Expense ratio | | 44.0 | % | -0.3 | % | — | | — | | — | |
Combined ratio | | 87.6 | % | 86.7 | % | — | | — | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Equity layer credit protection | | $ | 5.4 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | |
Trade credit reinsurance | | 9.3 | | (34.6 | ) | — | | — | | — | |
Title reinsurance | | 2.5 | | 0.8 | | — | | — | | — | |
Auto residual value reinsurance | | — | | (32.2 | ) | — | | — | | — | |
Total net earned premiums | | $ | 17.2 | | $ | (66.0 | ) | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain (loss): (1) | | | | | | | | | | | |
Equity layer credit protection | | $ | 2.5 | | $ | 0.5 | | $ | — | | $ | 0.4 | | $ | 1.1 | |
Trade credit reinsurance | | 1.4 | | (4.2 | ) | — | | — | | — | |
Title reinsurance | | 0.7 | | 0.3 | | — | | — | | — | |
Auto residual value reinsurance | | (2.5 | ) | (5.4 | ) | — | | — | | — | |
Total underwriting gain (loss) | | $ | 2.1 | | $ | (8.8 | ) | $ | — | | $ | 0.4 | | $ | 1.1 | |
(1). 2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.
8
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve
(dollars in millions)
| | As of March 31, 2005 | | As of December 31, 2004 | |
Loss and LAE reserves by segment: | | | | | |
Financial guaranty direct | | $ | 18.4 | | $ | 19.9 | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance | | 76.1 | | 78.8 | |
Mortgage guaranty | | 11.2 | | 11.2 | |
Other | | 112.7 | | 116.6 | |
Total | | $ | 218.4 | | $ | 226.5 | |
| | As of March 31, 2005 | | As of December 31, 2004 | |
Loss and LAE reserves by type: | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 52.2 | | $ | 53.5 | |
IBNR | | 100.0 | | 105.8 | |
Portfolio | | 66.2 | | 67.2 | |
Total | | $ | 218.4 | | $ | 226.5 | |
| | As of March 31, 2005 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Total Financial Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 4.3 | | $ | 26.0 | | $ | 0.7 | | $ | 31.0 | | $ | 21.2 | | $ | 52.2 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 8.5 | | 8.5 | | 91.5 | | 100.0 | |
Portfolio | | 14.1 | | 50.1 | | 2.0 | | 66.2 | | — | | 66.2 | |
Total | | $ | 18.4 | | $ | 76.1 | | $ | 11.2 | | $ | 105.7 | | $ | 112.7 | | $ | 218.4 | |
| | As of December 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Mortgage Guaranty | | Total Financial Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 4.3 | | $ | 29.1 | | $ | 0.8 | | $ | 34.2 | | $ | 19.3 | | $ | 53.5 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 8.5 | | 8.5 | | 97.3 | | 105.8 | |
Portfolio | | 15.6 | | 49.7 | | 1.9 | | 67.2 | | — | | 67.2 | |
Total | | $ | 19.9 | | $ | 78.8 | | $ | 11.2 | | $ | 109.9 | | $ | 116.6 | | $ | 226.5 | |
9
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
| | Amortized Cost | | Pre-Tax Book Yield | | Fair Value | | Annualized Investment Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | $ | 176.2 | | 3.9 | % | $ | 178.3 | | $ | 6.9 | |
Agency obligations | | 206.4 | | 5.2 | % | 212.3 | | 10.7 | |
Foreign government securities | | 18.3 | | 4.9 | % | 18.4 | | 0.9 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 319.4 | | 4.6 | % | 333.7 | | 14.8 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 498.1 | | 4.9 | % | 530.1 | | 24.5 | |
Corporate securities | | 180.3 | | 5.6 | % | 186.7 | | 10.1 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 469.0 | | 4.9 | % | 470.7 | | 23.0 | |
PACs | | 76.7 | | 4.6 | % | 76.1 | | 3.6 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 76.9 | | 3.5 | % | 77.1 | | 2.7 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | 2,021.3 | | 4.8 | % | 2,083.4 | | 97.0 | |
Short-term investments | | 63.5 | | 2.4 | % | 63.5 | | 1.5 | |
Total investments | | $ | 2,084.8 | | 4.7 | % | $ | 2,146.9 | | $ | 98.5 | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | |
Ratings distribution(1): | | | | | | | | | |
Treasury and U.S. government obligations | | $ | 178.3 | | 8.6 | % | | | | |
Agency obligations | | 212.3 | | 10.2 | % | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | 1,315.4 | | 63.1 | % | | | | |
AA/Aa | | 261.5 | | 12.6 | % | | | | |
A/A | | 115.0 | | 5.5 | % | | | | |
BBB/Baa | | 0.9 | | — | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 2,083.4 | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
(1). Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s and S&P classifications.
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | |
Maturity schedule: | | | | | | | | | |
Due within one year | | $ | 16.8 | | 0.8 | % | | | | |
Due after one year through five years | | 381.3 | | 18.3 | % | | | | |
Due after five years through ten years | | 352.7 | | 16.9 | % | | | | |
Due after ten years | | 785.8 | | 37.7 | % | | | | |
Mortgage-backed securities | | 546.8 | | 26.3 | % | | | | |
Total | | $ | 2,083.4 | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Duration of investment portfolio: | | | | 4.6 | | | | | |
10
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
| | | | | | As of March 31, 2005: | |
| | Gross Par Written | | Net Par | | | | | |
Sector | | 1Q 2005 | | 1Q 2004 | | Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (7) | |
Public finance | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 592 | | $ | 415 | | $ | 13,090 | | 13.6 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 345 | | 161 | | 11,206 | | 11.6 | % | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 676 | | 407 | | 10,878 | | 11.3 | % | A+ | |
Transportation | | 185 | | 46 | | 6,946 | | 7.2 | % | A | |
Healthcare | | 186 | | 507 | | 6,732 | | 7.0 | % | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 31 | | 214 | | 2,210 | | 2.3 | % | A- | |
Housing | | 69 | | 76 | | 1,383 | | 1.4 | % | AA- | |
Other public finance (1) | | 138 | | 22 | | 1,217 | | 1.3 | % | A- | |
Structured municipal (2) | | — | | — | | 1,050 | | 1.1 | % | AAA | |
Higher education | | 61 | | 84 | | 1,014 | | 1.1 | % | A+ | |
Total public finance | | 2,283 | | 1,933 | | 55,726 | | 57.8 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | |
CDOs (3) | | 745 | | 67 | | 17,989 | | 18.7 | % | AA+ | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 1,593 | | 1,830 | | 12,150 | | 12.6 | % | AA | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 210 | | 292 | | 4,834 | | 5.0 | % | AA- | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 79 | | 207 | | 3,007 | | 3.1 | % | A- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 528 | | 246 | | 2,657 | | 2.8 | % | A+ | |
Single name corporate CDS | | — | | — | | 31 | | 0.0 | % | A+ | |
Total structured finance | | 3,156 | | 2,641 | | 40,668 | | 42.2 | % | AA | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 5,438 | | $ | 4,574 | | $ | 96,394 | | 100.0 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 419 | | $ | 237 | | $ | 2,582 | | NA | | NA | |
(1). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(2). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(3). Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(5). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(6). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(7). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
11
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 29,652 | | 30.8 | % | $ | 29,696 | | 31.1 | % |
AA/Aa | | 19,557 | | 20.3 | % | 19,856 | | 20.8 | % |
A/A | | 32,471 | | 33.7 | % | 31,393 | | 32.8 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 13,372 | | 13.9 | % | 13,137 | | 13.7 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1,342 | | 1.4 | % | 1,509 | | 1.6 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 96,394 | | 100 | % | $ | 95,592 | | 100 | % |
Distribution by ratings of CDO exposure
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Ratings 1 | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 13,515 | | 75.1 | % | $ | 12,975 | | 75.2 | % |
AA/Aa | | 3,022 | | 16.8 | % | 2,784 | | 16.1 | % |
A/A | | 1,136 | | 6.3 | % | 1,155 | | 6.7 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 200 | | 1.1 | % | 216 | | 1.3 | % |
Below investment grade | | 117 | | 0.6 | % | 116 | | 0.7 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 17,989 | | 100 | % | $ | 17,246 | | 100 | % |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
12
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of March 31, 2005
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 7,737 | | 8.0 | % |
New York | | 5,803 | | 6.0 | % |
Texas | | 3,225 | | 3.3 | % |
Illinois | | 2,801 | | 2.9 | % |
Florida | | 2,748 | | 2.9 | % |
New Jersey | | 2,459 | | 2.6 | % |
Massachusetts | | 2,242 | | 2.3 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 2,196 | | 2.3 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 1,800 | | 1.9 | % |
Washington | | 1,708 | | 1.8 | % |
Other states | | 18,838 | | 19.5 | % |
Mortgage and structured (multiple states) | | 34,992 | | 36.3 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 86,549 | | 89.8 | % |
International: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 5,321 | | 5.5 | % |
Germany | | 913 | | 0.9 | % |
Australia | | 568 | | 0.6 | % |
Brazil | | 352 | | 0.4 | % |
Italy | | 269 | | 0.3 | % |
Other | | 2,422 | | 2.5 | % |
Total International | | $ | 9,845 | | 10.2 | % |
| | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 96,394 | | 100 | % |
| | 1Q 2005 | | 1Q 2004 | |
Gross par written: | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 4,933 | | $ | 3,730 | |
International | | 506 | | 844 | |
Total | | $ | 5,438 | | $ | 4,574 | |
| | | | | |
Gross premium written: | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 54.2 | | $ | (26.6 | ) |
International | | 23.9 | | 25.1 | |
Total | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | (1.5 | ) |
13
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type | | Weighted Average Remaining Life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (6) | |
| | | | | | | |
Public finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 19.7 | | $ | 365.4 | | BB | |
Healthcare | | 12.8 | | 89.4 | | BB | |
General obligation | | 11.4 | | 66.2 | | BB+ | |
Other public finance (1) | | 26.4 | | 15.7 | | B+ | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 16.2 | | 15.2 | | BB- | |
Municipal utilities | | 11.2 | | 13.6 | | C | |
Tax backed | | 9.7 | | 9.5 | | BB | |
Housing | | 8.3 | | 3.3 | | B | |
Higher education | | 11.7 | | 1.0 | | BB+ | |
Total public finance | | 17.4 | | $ | 579.3 | | BB | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | |
Consumer receivables (2) | | 2.9 | | $ | 375.3 | | BB | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 6.4 | | 139.6 | | B- | |
Commercial receivables (3) | | 7.0 | | 124.4 | | B | |
CDOs (4) | | 3.0 | | 116.7 | | B+ | |
Other structured finance (5) | | 4.9 | | 6.7 | | BB- | |
Total structured finance | | 4.2 | | $ | 762.8 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total exposures | | 9.9 | | $ | 1,342.1 | | BB- | |
(1). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(2). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(3). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(4). Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(5). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(6). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
14
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Closely Monitored Credits
(dollars in millions)
Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category (1)
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Description | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of credits in category | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of credits in category | |
Fundamentally sound, normal risk | | $ | 94,840 | | 98.4 | % | | | $ | 93,855 | | 98.2 | % | | |
Closely monitored: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Category 1 | | 1,159 | | 1.2 | % | 29 | | 1,490 | | 1.6 | % | 35 | |
Category 2 | | 316 | | 0.3 | % | 9 | | 165 | | 0.2 | % | 9 | |
Category 3 | | 67 | | 0.1 | % | 16 | | 70 | | 0.1 | % | 16 | |
Category 4 | | 12 | | — | | 8 | | 12 | | — | | 8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Subtotal | | 1,554 | | 1.6 | % | 62 | | 1,737 | | 1.8 | % | 68 | |
Total | | $ | 96,394 | | 100 | % | | | $ | 95,592 | | 100 | % | | |
(1). Our risk management department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). Credits that are not included in the closely monitored credit list are categorized as fundamentally sound, normal risk.
15
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Public Finance Exposures
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 845 | | AA- | |
California State General Obligation & Leases | | 834 | | A- | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 711 | | A- | |
New York City General Obligation & Leases | | 693 | | A | |
Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay | | 691 | | AA- | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | | 660 | | A | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 640 | | AA+ | |
Denver Colorado Airport System | | 626 | | A | |
Chicago Illinois General Obligation | | 569 | | A+ | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 544 | | A- | |
New York State Metro Trans Auth - Transportation Revenue | | 535 | | A | |
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System | | 504 | | A+ | |
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 487 | | A- | |
Energy Northwest | | 481 | | AA- | |
San Francisco California Airport | | 477 | | A | |
New York State General Obligation | | 423 | | AA | |
Los Angeles County Metro Trans - Sales Tax | | 356 | | AA | |
Mental Health Services Facilities - New York | | 355 | | A | |
Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina | | 341 | | AA- | |
Port Authority of New York & New Jersey | | 337 | | AA- | |
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System | | 324 | | A | |
Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education | | 307 | | A+ | |
Pennsylvania State General Obligation | | 303 | | AA | |
Illinois State General Obligation | | 288 | | AA | |
District of Columbia General Obligation | | 278 | | A | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 public finance exposures | | $ | 12,606 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
16
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating (1) | |
Park Place (Ameriquest) PPSI 2004-MHQ1 Class A-1 | | $ | 1,466 | | AAA | |
Ameriquest Mortgage Securities Inc. 2004-R10 A-1 | | 1,016 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2004-W11 Class A-1 | | 920 | | AAA | |
Structured Finance Corporate Pool | | 884 | | AAA | |
Field Point I & II, Limited Class A1 & A2 | | 780 | | AA- | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 740 | | AAA | |
Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2004-FR3 2-A | | 664 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 616 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 603 | | A+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust | | 550 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 500 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 470 | | AA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 | | 435 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 430 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 410 | | AAA | |
Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 | | 400 | | AAA | |
Synthetic Sub-Prime RMBS | | 391 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Providian Gateway Master Trust | | 359 | | IG/NIG(2) | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 347 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 311 | | BBB+ | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 structured finance exposures | | $ | 14,485 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(2). $280 million of the net par for this credit has investment grade rating ranging from BBB- to BBB+ and $79 million of the net par has non-investment grade rating of BB+.
17
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of March 31, 2005 | | As of December 31, 2004 | |
| | AGC | | AGR (1) | | Consolidated | | AGC | | AGR (1) | | Consolidated | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | $ | 404 | | $ | 220 | | $ | 624 | | $ | 406 | | $ | 186 | | $ | 592 | |
Contingency reserve | | 531 | | — | | 531 | | 518 | | — | | 518 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 244 | | 615 | | 859 | | 237 | | 596 | | 833 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 30 | | 219 | | 249 | | 32 | | 103 | | 135 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 1,209 | | $ | 1,054 | | $ | 2,263 | | $ | 1,193 | | $ | 885 | | $ | 2,078 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 244 | | $ | 615 | | $ | 859 | | $ | 237 | | $ | 596 | | $ | 833 | |
Contingency reserve | | 531 | | — | | 531 | | 518 | | — | | 518 | |
Statutory capital | | 775 | | 615 | �� | 1,390 | | 755 | | 596 | | 1,351 | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | 404 | | 220 | | 624 | | 406 | | 186 | | 592 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 30 | | 219 | | 249 | | 32 | | 103 | | 135 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | 1,209 | | 1,054 | | 2,263 | | 1,193 | | 885 | | 2,078 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 278 | | 134 | | 412 | | 268 | | 132 | | 400 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 255 | | — | | 255 | | 255 | | — | | 255 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,742 | | $ | 1,188 | | $ | 2,930 | | $ | 1,716 | | $ | 1,017 | | $ | 2,733 | |
(1). AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.
(2). Unearned premium reserve for AGR is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.
18
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, expect per share amounts)
| | 1Q-05 | | 2004 | | 2003 | | 2002 | | 2001 | | 2000 | |
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross premiums written | | $ | 78.1 | | $ | 190.9 | | $ | 349.2 | | $ | 417.2 | | $ | 442.9 | | $ | 206.0 | |
Net earned premiums | | 48.1 | | 187.9 | | 310.9 | | 247.4 | | 293.5 | | 140.7 | |
Net investment income | | 23.1 | | 94.8 | | 96.3 | | 97.2 | | 99.5 | | 98.1 | |
Total expenses | | 19.6 | | 114.6 | | 266.1 | | 218.8 | | 282.8 | | 131.8 | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 56.8 | | 233.3 | | 246.2 | | 83.2 | | 110.1 | | 118.1 | |
Net income | | 44.3 | | 182.8 | | 214.5 | | 72.6 | | 63.8 | | 93.2 | |
Operating income | | 41.3 | | 141.1 | | 127.3 | | 115.7 | | 96.1 | | 87.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income per diluted share | | $ | 0.59 | | $ | 2.44 | | $ | 2.86 | | $ | 0.97 | | $ | 0.85 | | $ | 1.24 | |
Operating income per diluted share | | $ | 0.55 | | $ | 1.88 | | $ | 1.70 | | $ | 1.54 | | $ | 1.28 | | $ | 1.17 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Ratios | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | -19.6 | % | -17.0 | % | 46.5 | % | 48.6 | % | 60.5 | % | 21.6 | % |
Expense ratio | | 53.3 | % | 65.4 | % | 37.2 | % | 35.5 | % | 30.6 | % | 61.2 | % |
Combined ratio | | 33.7 | % | 48.4 | % | 83.7 | % | 84.1 | % | 91.1 | % | 82.8 | % |
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total investments and cash | | $ | 2,168.6 | | $ | 2,157.9 | | $ | 2,222.1 | | $ | 2,061.9 | | $ | 1,710.8 | | $ | 1,549.6 | |
Total assets | | 2,709.7 | | 2,694.0 | | 2,857.9 | | 2,719.9 | | 2,322.1 | | 1,913.7 | |
Unearned premium reserves | | 548.7 | | 521.3 | | 625.4 | | 613.3 | | 500.3 | | 444.6 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 218.4 | | 226.5 | | 522.6 | | 458.8 | | 401.1 | | 171.0 | |
Long-term debt | | 197.3 | | 197.4 | | 75.0 | | 75.0 | | 150.0 | | 150.0 | |
Shareholders’ equity | | 1,537.7 | | 1,527.6 | | 1,437.6 | | 1,257.2 | | 1,061.6 | | 994.5 | |
Book value per share | | $ | 20.45 | | $ | 20.19 | | $ | 19.17 | | $ | 16.76 | | $ | 14.15 | | $ | 13.26 | |
Other Financial Information | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | | $ | 138,160 | | $ | 136,120 | | $ | 130,047 | | $ | 124,082 | | $ | 117,909 | | $ | 102,744 | |
Net par amount outstanding (end of period) | | 96,394 | | 95,592 | | 87,524 | | 80,394 | | 75,249 | | 65,756 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Debt service written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 4,134 | | $ | 14,493 | | $ | 12,130 | | $ | 14,312 | | $ | 8,694 | | $ | 7,385 | |
Structured Finance | | 3,383 | | 16,477 | | 11,038 | | 13,210 | | 12,627 | | 9,054 | |
Total debt service written | | $ | 7,517 | | $ | 30,970 | | $ | 23,168 | | $ | 27,522 | | $ | 21,321 | | $ | 16,439 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 6,740 | | $ | 27,073 | | $ | 19,346 | | $ | 25,453 | | $ | 19,196 | | $ | 15,451 | |
International | | 777 | | 3,897 | | 3,822 | | 2,069 | | 2,125 | | 988 | |
Total debt service written | | $ | 7,517 | | $ | 30,970 | | $ | 23,168 | | $ | 27,522 | | $ | 21,321 | | $ | 16,439 | |
19
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended | | % Change | |
| | March 31, | | versus | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | 1Q-04 | |
| | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 32.4 | | $ | 47.5 | | -32 | % |
Net written premiums | | 25.5 | | 47.1 | | -46 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 30.6 | | 37.5 | | -18 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 13.3 | | 12.6 | | 6 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 43.9 | | $ | 50.1 | | -12 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.8 | ) | 8.7 | | NMF | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.3 | | NMF | |
Acquisition costs | | 8.1 | | 9.2 | | -12 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 7.9 | | 10.8 | | -27 | % |
Goodwill impairment | | — | | 1.6 | | NMF | |
Total expenses | | $ | 14.1 | | $ | 30.6 | | -54 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 29.8 | | 19.5 | | 53 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 7.7 | | 4.7 | | 64 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 22.1 | | $ | 14.8 | | 49 | % |
| | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 0.1 | | — | | NMF | |
After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments | | 3.2 | | 6.5 | | -51 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 25.4 | | $ | 21.3 | | 19 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
20
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | | $ | 1,171.8 | | $ | 1,172.3 | |
Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value | | 30.7 | | 66.1 | |
Total investments | | 1,202.5 | | 1,238.4 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 11.1 | | 2.8 | |
Accrued investment income | | 15.2 | | 14.5 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 140.0 | | 140.3 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 49.0 | | 49.7 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 33.4 | | 36.4 | |
Premiums receivable | | 33.8 | | 48.9 | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 85.4 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 34.4 | | 29.4 | |
Other assets | | 10.7 | | 10.7 | |
Total assets | | $ | 1,615.2 | | $ | 1,656.5 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserves | | $ | 363.5 | | $ | 369.3 | |
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 109.9 | | 118.4 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 4.2 | | 4.2 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 27.6 | | 64.9 | |
Deferred income taxes | | 57.4 | | 58.3 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 5.9 | | 5.8 | |
Other liabilities | | 23.1 | | 28.1 | |
Total liabilities | | 591.5 | | 649.0 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 15.0 | | 15.0 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 390.5 | | 386.4 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (7.9 | ) | (5.8 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 594.7 | | 569.2 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 31.5 | | 42.7 | |
Total shareholder’s equity | | 1,023.7 | | 1,007.5 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | $ | 1,615.2 | | $ | 1,656.5 | |
21
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | | As of | | | | | | | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | | | | | | | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE reserves by segment: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Financial guaranty direct | | $ | 17.8 | | $ | 19.0 | | | | | | | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance | | 72.2 | | 75.6 | | | | | | | |
Other | | 19.9 | | 23.8 | | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 109.9 | | $ | 118.4 | | | | | | | |
| | As of | | As of | | | | | | | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | | | | | | | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE reserves by type: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 34.5 | | $ | 38.6 | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 14.9 | | 17.0 | | | | | | | |
Portfolio | | 60.5 | | 62.8 | | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 109.9 | | $ | 118.4 | | | | | | | |
| | As of March 31, 2005 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 4.3 | | $ | 25.2 | | $ | 29.5 | | $ | 5.0 | | $ | 34.5 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | — | | 14.9 | | 14.9 | |
Portfolio | | 13.5 | | 47.0 | | 60.5 | | — | | 60.5 | |
Total | | $ | 17.8 | | $ | 72.2 | | $ | 90.0 | | $ | 19.9 | | $ | 109.9 | |
| | As of December 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 4.3 | | $ | 27.5 | | $ | 31.8 | | $ | 6.8 | | $ | 38.6 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | — | | 17.0 | | 17.0 | |
Portfolio | | 14.7 | | 48.1 | | 62.8 | | — | | 62.8 | |
Total | | $ | 19.0 | | $ | 75.6 | | $ | 94.6 | | $ | 23.8 | | $ | 118.4 | |
22
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Investment Portfolio
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
| | Amortized Cost | | Pre-Tax Book Yield | | Fair Value | | Annualized Investment Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | $ | 31.3 | | 3.8 | % | $ | 31.3 | | $ | 1.2 | |
Agency obligations | | 28.6 | | 4.3 | % | 29.1 | | 1.2 | |
Foreign government securities | | 18.1 | | 4.9 | % | 18.3 | | 0.9 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 308.8 | | 4.6 | % | 322.5 | | 14.2 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 465.5 | | 5.0 | % | 497.0 | | 23.1 | |
Corporate securities | | 65.5 | | 5.1 | % | 67.1 | | 3.4 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 180.3 | | 4.9 | % | 180.0 | | 8.8 | |
PACs | | 6.0 | | 3.9 | % | 5.9 | | 0.2 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 20.5 | | 3.1 | % | 20.6 | | 0.6 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | $ | 1,124.6 | | 4.8 | % | $ | 1,171.8 | | $ | 53.6 | |
Short-term investments | | 30.7 | | 2.4 | % | 30.7 | | 0.7 | |
Total investments | | $ | 1,155.3 | | 4.7 | % | $ | 1,202.5 | | $ | 54.3 | |
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | |
Ratings distribution(1): | | | | | | | | | |
Treasury and government obligations | | $ | 31.3 | | 2.7 | % | | | | |
Agency obligations | | 29.1 | | 2.5 | % | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | 838.3 | | 71.5 | % | | | | |
AA/Aa | | 199.3 | | 17.0 | % | | | | |
A/A | | 73.8 | | 6.3 | % | | | | |
BBB/Baa | | — | | — | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 1,171.8 | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
(1). Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s and S&P classifications.
| | Fair Value | | % | | | | | |
Maturity schedule: | | | | | | | | | | |
Due within one year | | $ | 7.8 | | 0.7 | % | | | | |
Due after one year through five years | | 143.8 | | 12.3 | % | | | | |
Due after five years through ten years | | 204.4 | | 17.4 | % | | | | |
Due after ten years | | 629.9 | | 53.7 | % | | | | |
Mortgage-backed securities | | 185.9 | | 15.9 | % | | | | |
Total | | $ | 1,171.8 | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Duration of investment portfolio: | | | | 5.1 | | | | | |
23
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
| | As of March 31, 2005: | |
Sector | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (7) | |
Public finance | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 9,588 | | 13.1 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 8,487 | | 11.6 | % | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 8,442 | | 11.5 | % | A+ | |
Transportation | | 5,700 | | 7.8 | % | A | |
Healthcare | | 3,926 | | 5.3 | % | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 1,669 | | 2.3 | % | BBB+ | |
Housing | | 1,154 | | 1.6 | % | AA- | |
Other public finance (1) | | 894 | | 1.2 | % | A | |
Higher education | | 847 | | 1.2 | % | A+ | |
Structured municipal (2) | | 783 | | 1.1 | % | AAA | |
Total public finance | | 41,492 | | 56.5 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | |
CDOs (3) | | 14,988 | | 20.4 | % | AA+ | |
Mortgage-backed & home equity | | 8,276 | | 11.3 | % | AA | |
Commercial receivables (4) | | 4,169 | | 5.7 | % | AA- | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 2,635 | | 3.6 | % | A- | |
Other structured finance (6) | | 1,875 | | 2.6 | % | A+ | |
Total structured finance | | 31,943 | | 43.5 | % | AA | |
| | | | | | | |
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 73,435 | | 100.0 | % | AA- | |
(1). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(2). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(3). Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(5). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(6). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(7). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
24
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 22,509 | | 30.7 | % | $ | 22,726 | | 30.7 | % |
AA/Aa | | 15,209 | | 20.7 | % | 15,969 | | 21.6 | % |
A/A | | 24,679 | | 33.6 | % | 23,741 | | 32.1 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 9,763 | | 13.3 | % | 10,122 | | 13.7 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1,275 | | 1.7 | % | 1,443 | | 2.0 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 73,435 | | 100 | % | $ | 74,001 | | 100 | % |
Distribution by ratings of CDO exposure
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 10,864 | | 72.5 | % | $ | 10,469 | | 72.6 | % |
AA/Aa | | 2,756 | | 18.4 | % | 2,543 | | 17.6 | % |
A/A | | 1,117 | | 7.5 | % | 1,136 | | 7.9 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 151 | | 1.0 | % | 167 | | 1.2 | % |
Below investment grade | | 100 | | 0.7 | % | 99 | | 0.7 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 14,988 | | 100 | % | $ | 14,415 | | 100 | % |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
25
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of March 31, 2005
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 5,899 | | 8.0 | % |
New York | | 4,175 | | 5.7 | % |
Texas | | 2,485 | | 3.4 | % |
Illinois | | 2,291 | | 3.1 | % |
Florida | | 2,215 | | 3.0 | % |
New Jersey | | 1,920 | | 2.6 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 1,704 | | 2.3 | % |
Massachusetts | | 1,577 | | 2.1 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 1,416 | | 1.9 | % |
Washington | | 1,208 | | 1.6 | % |
Other states | | 13,614 | | 18.5 | % |
Mortgage and structured (multiple states) | | 27,228 | | 37.1 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 65,732 | | 89.5 | % |
International: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 4,034 | | 5.5 | % |
Germany | | 742 | | 1.0 | % |
Australia | | 459 | | 0.6 | % |
Brazil | | 318 | | 0.4 | % |
Italy | | 219 | | 0.3 | % |
Other | | 1,931 | | 2.6 | % |
Total International | | $ | 7,702 | | 10.5 | % |
| | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 73,435 | | 100 | % |
| | 1Q 2005 | | 1Q 2004 | |
Gross par written: | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 2,093 | | $ | 2,536 | |
International | | 375 | | 477 | |
Total | | $ | 2,468 | | $ | 3,013 | |
| | | | | |
Gross premium written: | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 29.9 | | $ | 43.1 | |
International | | 2.5 | | 4.4 | |
Total | | $ | 32.4 | | $ | 47.5 | |
26
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
Asset Type | | Weighted Average Remaining Life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (6) | |
| | | | | | | |
Public Finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 19.7 | | $ | 365.4 | | BB | |
Healthcare | | 12.5 | | 76.2 | | BB | |
General obligation | | 11.7 | | 44.6 | | BB+ | |
Other public finance (1) | | 26.4 | | 15.7 | | B+ | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 16.2 | | 15.2 | | BB- | |
Municipal utilities | | 11.2 | | 13.6 | | C | |
Tax backed | | 9.9 | | 7.6 | | BB- | |
Housing | | 8.3 | | 3.3 | | B | |
Higher education | | 11.7 | | 1.0 | | BB+ | |
Total public finance | | 17.7 | | $ | 542.5 | | BB | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured Finance | | | | | | | |
Consumer receivables (2) | | 2.9 | | $ | 375.3 | | BB | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 6.0 | | 125.5 | | CCC+ | |
Commercial receivables (3) | | 7.0 | | 124.4 | | B | |
CDOs (4) | | 3.3 | | 100.3 | | B+ | |
Other structured finance (5) | | 4.9 | | 6.7 | | BB- | |
Total structured finance | | 4.2 | | $ | 732.2 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total exposures | | 10.0 | | $ | 1,274.7 | | BB- | |
(1). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(2). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(3). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(4). Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(5). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(6). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
27
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Closely Monitored Credits
(dollars in millions)
Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category (1)
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Description | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of credits in category | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of credits in category | |
Fundamentally sound, normal risk | | $ | 71,918 | | 97.9 | % | | | $ | 72,289 | | 97.7 | % | | |
Closely monitored: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Category 1 | | 1,122 | | 1.5 | % | 27 | | 1,465 | | 2.0 | % | 35 | |
Category 2 | | 316 | | 0.4 | % | 9 | | 165 | | 0.2 | % | 9 | |
Category 3 | | 67 | | 0.1 | % | 16 | | 70 | | 0.1 | % | 16 | |
Category 4 | | 12 | | 0.1 | % | 8 | | 12 | | — | | 8 | |
Subtotal | | 1,517 | | 2.1 | % | 60 | | 1,712 | | 2.3 | % | 68 | |
Total | | $ | 73,435 | | 100 | % | | | $ | 74,001 | | 100 | % | | |
(1). Our risk management department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). Credits that are not included in the closely monitored credit list are categorized as fundamentally sound, normal risk.
28
Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Public Finance Exposures
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 755 | | AA- | |
California State General Obligation & Leases | | 578 | | A- | |
New York State Metro Trans Auth - Transportation Revenue | | 476 | | A | |
Denver Colorado Airport System | | 466 | | A | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 464 | | A- | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 457 | | A- | |
Chicago Illinois General Obligation | | 456 | | A+ | |
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 451 | | A- | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | | 439 | | A | |
San Francisco California Airport | | 422 | | A | |
Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation | | 409 | | AA- | |
Energy Northwest | | 390 | | AA- | |
New York State General Obligation | | 390 | | AA | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 383 | | AA+ | |
New York City General Obligation | | 341 | | A | |
Los Angeles County Metro Trans - Sales Tax | | 314 | | AA | |
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System | | 293 | | A+ | |
Illinois State General Obligation & Leases | | 282 | | AA | |
Massachusetts State Turnpike Authority Metro | | 266 | | A- | |
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System | | 261 | | A | |
Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina | | 257 | | AA- | |
Intermountain Power Agency | | 243 | | A+ | |
Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education | | 237 | | A+ | |
Los Angeles California Unified School District | | 235 | | AA | |
Pennsylvania State General Obligation | | 229 | | AA | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 public finance exposures | | $ | 9,494 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
29
Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of March 31, 2005
(dollars in millions)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding | | Rating(1) | |
Park Place (Ameriquest) PPSI 2004-MHQ1 Class A-1 | | $ | 1,100 | | AAA | |
Ameriquest Mortgage Securities Inc. 2004-R10 A-1 | | 762 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2004-W11 Class A-1 | | 690 | | AAA | |
Structured Finance Corporate Pool | | 663 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 616 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 603 | | A+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Field Point I & II, Limited | | 585 | | AA- | |
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust | | 550 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 540 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 500 | | AAA | |
Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2004-FR3 2-A | | 498 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 470 | | AA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 440 | | AAA | |
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 | | 435 | | BBB+ | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 430 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 417 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 360 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 350 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 347 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 344 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 311 | | BBB+ | |
Providian Gateway Master Trust | | 302 | | IG/NIG(2) | |
Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 | | 300 | | AAA | |
Synthetic Sub-Prime RMBS | | 293 | | AAA | |
| | | | | |
Total top 25 structured finance exposures | | $ | 12,499 | | | |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(2). $224 million of the net par for this credit has investment grade rating ranging from BBB- to BBB+ and $79 million of the net par has non-investment grade rating of BB+.
30
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of: | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve | | $ | 404 | | $ | 406 | |
Contingency reserve | | 531 | | 518 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 244 | | 237 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 30 | | 32 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 1,209 | | $ | 1,193 | |
| | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 244 | | $ | 237 | |
Contingency reserve | | 531 | | 518 | |
Statutory capital | | 775 | | 755 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | 404 | | 406 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 30 | | 32 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | 1,209 | | 1,193 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 278 | | 268 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 255 | | 255 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,742 | | $ | 1,716 | |
31
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-05 | | 2004 | | 2003 | | 2002 | | 2001 | | 2000 | |
Statutory Data | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 103.2 | | $ | 66.6 | | $ | 46.2 | | $ | 44.9 | | $ | 60.5 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 244.4 | | 236.7 | | 255.6 | | 287.0 | | 334.0 | | 323.4 | |
Contingency reserve | | 530.9 | | 518.4 | | 400.0 | | 307.0 | | 223.1 | | 180.6 | |
Statutory capital | | 775.3 | | 755.1 | | 655.6 | | 594.0 | | 557.2 | | 504.0 | |
Unearned premium reserve | | 403.8 | | 405.8 | | 466.7 | | 369.9 | | 351.5 | | 330.2 | |
Present value of installment premiums | | 277.8 | | 267.8 | | 293.3 | | 220.4 | | 149.2 | | 89.1 | |
Premium resources | | 681.6 | | 673.6 | | 760.0 | | 590.3 | | 500.7 | | 419.3 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 29.5 | | 31.8 | | 55.0 | | 40.8 | | 20.5 | | 15.0 | |
Standby line of credit / stop loss | | 255.0 | | 255.0 | | 255.0 | | 415.0 | | 450.0 | | 250.0 | |
Total claims-paying resources | | $ | 1,741.5 | | $ | 1,715.5 | | $ | 1,725.6 | | $ | 1,640.1 | | $ | 1,528.4 | | $ | 1,188.3 | |
Statutory Financial Ratios | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | -1.3 | % | -8.4 | % | 25.9 | % | 35.4 | % | 18.3 | % | -0.7 | % |
Expense ratio | | 59.1 | % | 107.4 | % | 32.0 | % | 46.0 | % | 50.9 | % | 46.7 | % |
Combined ratio | | 57.8 | % | 99.0 | % | 57.9 | % | 81.4 | % | 69.2 | % | 46.0 | % |
Other Financial Information (end of period) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service outstanding | | $ | 105,117 | | $ | 105,831 | | $ | 117,406 | | $ | 113,074 | | $ | 108,135 | | $ | 87,363 | |
Net par amount outstanding | | 73,435 | | 74,001 | | 78,399 | | 72,259 | | 69,178 | | 56,557 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Debt service written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Public finance | | $ | 1,032 | | $ | 7,210 | | $ | 9,428 | | $ | 14,282 | | $ | 8,694 | | $ | 7,363 | |
Structured Finance | | 2,072 | | 13,520 | | 10,013 | | 12,151 | | 11,688 | | 8,789 | |
Total debt service written | | $ | 3,104 | | $ | 20,730 | | $ | 19,441 | | $ | 26,433 | | $ | 20,382 | | $ | 16,153 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 2,600 | | $ | 18,218 | | $ | 16,378 | | $ | 24,516 | | $ | 18,551 | | $ | 15,429 | |
International | | 504 | | 2,512 | | 3,063 | | 1,917 | | 1,831 | | 724 | |
Total debt service written | | $ | 3,104 | | $ | 20,730 | | $ | 19,441 | | $ | 26,433 | | $ | 20,382 | | $ | 16,153 | |
32
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended March 31 | | % Change versus | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | 1Q-04 | |
| | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 52.8 | | $ | (47.4 | ) | NMF | |
Net written premiums | | 50.5 | | (54.4 | ) | NMF | |
| | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 17.0 | | 48.7 | | -65 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net investment income | | 9.8 | | 11.6 | | -16 | % |
Other income | | 0.3 | | 0.6 | | -50 | % |
Total revenues | | $ | 27.1 | | $ | 60.9 | | -56 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (7.6 | ) | 15.0 | | NMF | |
Profit commission expense | | 1.0 | | 5.2 | | -81 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 2.2 | | 3.9 | | -44 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 2.1 | | 1.8 | | 17 | % |
Total expenses | | $ | (2.3 | ) | $ | 25.8 | | NMF | |
| | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 29.4 | | 35.1 | | -16 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 4.2 | | 5.4 | | -22 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 25.2 | | $ | 29.7 | | -15 | % |
| | | | | | | |
After-tax net realized gains on investments | | 1.4 | | — | | NMF | |
After-tax unrealized losses on derivative instruments | | (1.7 | ) | (3.4 | ) | 50 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 24.9 | | $ | 26.4 | | -6 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
33
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | |
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | | $ | 904.6 | | $ | 785.7 | |
Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value | | 23.4 | | 103.3 | |
Total investments | | 928.0 | | 889.0 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 4.8 | | 3.4 | |
Accrued investment income | | 7.8 | | 7.4 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 52.4 | | 46.0 | |
Premiums receivable | | 27.7 | | 56.9 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 8.3 | | 9.1 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 88.7 | | 88.4 | |
Deferred tax asset | | 17.3 | | 17.9 | |
Current income tax receivable | | 2.8 | | 4.9 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 12.4 | | 14.3 | |
Funds held under reinsurance contracts | | 5.7 | | 5.7 | |
Other assets | | 1.9 | | 4.2 | |
Total assets | | $ | 1,157.9 | | $ | 1,147.3 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserves | | $ | 228.2 | | $ | 195.5 | |
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 111.9 | | 112.3 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 39.7 | | 57.5 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 10.5 | | 13.1 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 51.6 | | 50.0 | |
Other liabilities | | 13.4 | | 25.9 | |
Total liabilities | | 455.3 | | 454.3 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholder’s equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 1.4 | | 1.4 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 388.0 | | 388.0 | |
Unearned stock grant compensation | | (1.6 | ) | (1.1 | ) |
Retained earnings | | 301.9 | | 280.9 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 12.9 | | 23.8 | |
Total shareholder’s equity | | 702.6 | | 693.0 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity | | $ | 1,157.9 | | $ | 1,147.3 | |
34
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve
(dollars in millions)
| | As of | | As of | | | | | | | | | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | | | | | | | | | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE reserves by segment: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Financial guaranty direct | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 4.2 | | | | | | | | | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance | | 5.0 | | 4.1 | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty | | 11.2 | | 11.2 | | | | | | | | | |
Other | | 92.8 | | 92.8 | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 111.9 | | $ | 112.3 | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | As of | | As of | | | | | | | | | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | | | | | | | | | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE reserves by type: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 17.7 | | $ | 14.9 | | | | | | | | | |
IBNR | | 85.1 | | 88.8 | | | | | | | | | |
Portfolio | | 9.1 | | 8.6 | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | $ | 111.9 | | $ | 112.3 | | | | | | | | | |
| | As of March 31, 2005 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | — | | $ | 0.8 | | $ | 0.7 | | $ | 1.5 | | $ | 16.2 | | $ | 17.7 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 8.5 | | 8.5 | | 76.6 | | 85.1 | |
Portfolio | | 2.9 | | 4.2 | | 2.0 | | 9.1 | | — | | 9.1 | |
Total | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 5.0 | | $ | 11.2 | | $ | 19.1 | | $ | 92.8 | | $ | 111.9 | |
| | As of December 31, 2004 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | — | | $ | 1.6 | | $ | 0.8 | | $ | 2.4 | | $ | 12.5 | | $ | 14.9 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | 8.5 | | 8.5 | | 80.3 | | 88.8 | |
Portfolio | | 4.2 | | 2.5 | | 1.9 | | 8.6 | | — | | 8.6 | |
Total | | $ | 4.2 | | $ | 4.1 | | $ | 11.2 | | $ | 19.5 | | $ | 92.8 | | $ | 112.3 | |
35
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3 )
(dollars in millions)
| | As of March 31, 2005: | |
Sector | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Avg. Rating (7) | |
Public finance | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 3,502 | | 15.3 | % | A+ | |
Healthcare | | 2,806 | | 12.2 | % | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 2,719 | | 11.8 | % | AA- | |
Tax backed | | 2,436 | | 10.6 | % | AA- | |
Transportation | | 1,245 | | 5.4 | % | A+ | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 540 | | 2.4 | % | A- | |
Other public finance (1) | | 323 | | 1.4 | % | A- | |
Structured municipal (2) | | 267 | | 1.2 | % | AAA | |
Housing | | 229 | | 1.0 | % | A+ | |
Higher education | | 167 | | 0.7 | % | AA- | |
Total public finance | | 14,234 | | 62.0 | % | A+ | |
| | | | | | | |
Structured finance | | | | | | | |
Mortgage-backed & home equity | | 3,874 | | 16.9 | % | AA- | |
CDOs (3) | | 3,001 | | 13.1 | % | AAA | |
Other structured finance (4) | | 782 | | 3.4 | % | A+ | |
Commercial receivables (5) | | 664 | | 2.9 | % | A- | |
Consumer receivables (6) | | 372 | | 1.6 | % | BBB | |
Single name corporate CDS | | 31 | | 0.1 | % | A+ | |
Total structured finance | | 8,725 | | 38.0 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 22,959 | | 100.0 | % | AA- | |
| | | | | | | |
Total debt service outstanding | | $ | 33,042 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 2,582 | | NA | | NA | |
(1). Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(2). Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in
excess of the AAA rating level.
(3). Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings
are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on
defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4). Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.
(5). Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(6). Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(7). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
36
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3 )
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 7,143 | | 31.1 | % | $ | 6,971 | | 32.3 | % |
AA/Aa | | 4,349 | | 18.9 | % | 3,887 | | 18.0 | % |
A/A | | 7,792 | | 33.9 | % | 7,652 | | 35.4 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 3,609 | | 15.7 | % | 3,015 | | 14.0 | % |
Below investment grade | | 67 | | 0.3 | % | 66 | | 0.3 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 22,959 | | 100 | % | $ | 21,590 | | 100 | % |
Distribution by ratings of CDO exposure
| | March 31, 2005 | | December 31, 2004 | |
Ratings (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 2,651 | | 88.3 | % | $ | 2,506 | | 88.5 | % |
AA/Aa | | 267 | | 8.9 | % | 241 | | 8.5 | % |
A/A | | 19 | | 0.6 | % | 19 | | 0.7 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 48 | | 1.6 | % | 49 | | 1.7 | % |
Below investment grade | | 16 | | 0.5 | % | 16 | | 0.6 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 3,001 | | 100 | % | $ | 2,831 | | 100 | % |
(1). Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to the nationally recognized rating agencies.
37
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3 )
(dollars in millions)
Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of March 31, 2005
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 1,838 | | 8.0 | % |
New York | | 1,628 | | 7.1 | % |
Texas | | 741 | | 3.2 | % |
Massachusetts | | 665 | | 2.9 | % |
Ohio | | 564 | | 2.5 | % |
New Jersey | | 538 | | 2.3 | % |
Florida | | 533 | | 2.3 | % |
Illinois | | 510 | | 2.2 | % |
Washington | | 500 | | 2.2 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 492 | | 2.1 | % |
Other states | | 5,044 | | 22.0 | % |
Mortgage and structured (multiple states) | | 7,763 | | 33.8 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 20,817 | | 90.7 | % |
| | | | | |
| | Net Par | | | |
International: | | Outstanding | | % | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 1,287 | | 5.6 | % |
Germany | | 171 | | 0.7 | % |
Australia | | 109 | | 0.5 | % |
Switzerland | | 64 | | 0.3 | % |
Turkey | | 52 | | 0.2 | % |
Other | | 459 | | 2.0 | % |
Total International | | $ | 2,142 | | 9.3 | % |
| | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 22,959 | | 100 | % |
| | | | | |
| | 1Q 2005 | | 1Q 2004 | |
Gross par written: | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 3,341 | | $ | 1,194 | |
International | | 221 | | 367 | |
Total | | $ | 3,562 | | $ | 1,561 | |
| | | | | |
Gross premium written: | | | | | |
U.S. | | $ | 33.0 | | $ | (66.4 | ) |
International | | 19.8 | | 19.0 | |
Total | | $ | 52.8 | | $ | (47.4 | ) |
38
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Capital and Claims Paying Resources (1)
(dollars in millions)
| | As of: | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | |
| | 2005 | | 2004 | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | |
| | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | $ | 220 | | $ | 186 | |
Contingency reserve | | — | | — | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 615 | | 596 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 219 | | 103 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 1,054 | | $ | 885 | |
| | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 615 | | $ | 596 | |
Contingency reserve | | — | | — | |
Statutory capital | | 615 | | 596 | |
Unearned premium reserve(2) | | 220 | | 186 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves | | 219 | | 103 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | 1,054 | | 885 | |
Present value of installment premium | | 134 | | 132 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | — | | — | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,188 | | $ | 1,017 | |
(1). AGR numbers are our estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.
(2). Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.
39
Endnotes related to non-GAAP measures discussed in the operating supplement:
(a) PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, represents gross premiums and fees related to financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in the current period, including upfront and installment premiums received on contracts written in the current period and the present value of estimated future installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year. We use 6% as the present value discount because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented. Present value of installment premiums in-force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, represents our future premiums on our in-force book of installment premium business in our financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments. It is calculated net of reinsurance ceded and using a discount rate of 6%. We believe PVP and Present value of installment premiums in-force are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because they permit the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which the GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.
(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder’s equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with GAAP.
(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder’s equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of: the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%). The adjustments described above will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value. Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company’s in-force premium and capital base.
40

| | Contacts: |
| | |
| | Equity investors and media |
| | Sabra Purtill |
| | Managing Director, Investor Relations |
| | (212) 408-6044 |
| | spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
| | |
| | Chris McNamee |
| | Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations |
| | (212) 261-5509 |
| | cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com |
| | |
| | Fixed income investors |
Assured Guaranty Ltd. | | Patrick Early |
30 Woodbourne Avenue | | Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations |
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda | | (212) 408 6043 |
www.assuredguaranty.com | | pearly@assuredguaranty.com |