Exhibit 99.2
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Supplement
First Quarter 2007
March 31, 2007
| | Table of Contents | | | | Page | | |
| | Assured Guaranty Ltd. | | | | | | |
| | Selected Financial Highlights | | | | 1 | | |
| | Consolidated GAAP Income Statements | | | | 2 | | |
| | Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets | | | | 3 | | |
| | Segment Consolidation | | | | 4 | | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct Segment | | | | 5-6 | | |
| | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment | | | | 7-8 | | |
| | Mortgage Guaranty Segment | | | | 9 | | |
| | Other Segment | | | | 10 | | |
| | Loss and LAE Reserves and Analysis of Net Claims Paid | | | | 11 | | |
| | Investment Portfolio | | | | 12 | | |
| | Estimated Net Exposure Amortization | | | | 13 | | |
| | Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums | | | | 14 | | |
| | Financial Guaranty Profile | | | | 15-21 | | |
| | Non-Investment Grade Exposures | | | | 22 | | |
| | Closely Monitored Credits | | | | 23 | | |
| | Largest Exposures by Sector | | | | 24-27 | | |
| | Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources | | | | 28 | | |
| | Summary Financial and Statistical Data | | | | 29 | | |
| | | | | | | | |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2006, June 30, 2006, September 30, 2006 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding ratings improvement and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events. These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars and shares in millions except per share amounts)
| | Quarter Ended | | % Change | |
| | March 31, | | versus | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | | 1Q-06 | |
Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis: | | | | | | | |
Present value of GWP (PVP)(a) | | $ | 106.7 | | $ | 61.8 | | 73 | % |
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP | | 77.2 | | 44.2 | | 75 | % |
Upfront financial guaranty GWP | | 29.5 | | 17.6 | | 68 | % |
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP | | 38.7 | | 31.4 | | 23 | % |
Financial guaranty GWP | | 68.2 | | 49.0 | | 39 | % |
Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP | | 1.0 | | 2.6 | | (62 | )% |
Plus: Other segment GWP | | 3.3 | | 3.8 | | (13 | )% |
Total GWP | | $ | 72.5 | | $ | 55.4 | | 31 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 39.0 | | $ | 34.9 | | 12 | % |
Less: After-tax realized losses on investments | | (0.2 | ) | (0.6 | ) | (67 | )% |
Less: After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives | | (6.9 | ) | (0.1 | ) | NM | |
Operating income(b) | | $ | 46.1 | | $ | 35.6 | | 29 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 1,694.3 | | $ | 1,673.4 | | 1 | % |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax(1) | | 570.7 | | 452.1 | | 26 | % |
Plus: Net present value of estimate future installment premiums in-force, after tax(d) | | 456.6 | | 340.6 | | 34 | % |
Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax | | 194.6 | | 167.2 | | 16 | % |
Adjusted book value(c) | | $ | 2,527.0 | | $ | 2,298.9 | | 10 | % |
| | | | | | | |
ROE, excluding AOCI | | 9.6 | % | 8.5 | % | | |
Less: After-tax realized losses on investments | | (0.1 | )% | (0.2 | )% | | |
Less: After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives | | (1.7 | )% | — | | | |
Operating ROE, excluding AOCI(b) | | 11.3 | % | 8.7 | % | | |
| | | | | | | |
Per diluted share: | | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 0.57 | | $ | 0.47 | | 21 | % |
Less: After-tax realized losses on investments | | — | | (0.01 | ) | — | |
Less: After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives | | (0.10 | ) | — | | — | |
Operating income(b) | | $ | 0.67 | | $ | 0.48 | | 40 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 25.04 | | $ | 22.67 | | 10 | % |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (1) | | 8.43 | | 6.13 | | 38 | % |
Plus: Net present value of estimate future installment premiums in-force, after tax(d) | | 6.75 | | 4.62 | | 46 | % |
Less: DAC, after tax | | 2.88 | | 2.27 | | 27 | % |
Adjusted book value(c) | | $ | 37.34 | | $ | 31.15 | | 20 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Additional information: | | | | | | | |
Shares outstanding at the end of period(2) | | 67.7 | | 73.8 | | (8 | )% |
Weighted average basic shares outstanding | | 67.6 | | 73.8 | | (8 | )% |
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding | | 68.8 | | 74.9 | | (8 | )% |
| | | | | | | |
Consolidated net debt service outstanding | | $ | 186,852 | | $ | 150,631 | | 24 | % |
Consolidated net par outstanding | | 138,853 | | 106,917 | | 30 | % |
Consolidated claims-paying resources | | 3,466 | | 3,125 | | 11 | % |
Gross par written | | 10,362 | | 8,129 | | 27 | % |
1. Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.
2. 3/31/07 shares outstanding excludes 1.4 million of nonvested restricted stock and 3/31/06 shares outstanding excludes 1.4 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
NM = Not meaningful
1
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Quarter Ended | | % Change | |
| | March 31, | | versus | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | | 1Q-06 | |
| | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 72.5 | | $ | 55.4 | | 31 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net written premiums | | 68.4 | | 50.8 | | 35 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 53.9 | | 48.1 | | 12 | % |
Net investment income | | 31.5 | | 26.2 | | 20 | % |
Total revenues | | 85.4 | | 74.3 | | 15 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (4.7 | ) | (0.4 | ) | NM | |
Profit commission expense | | 1.6 | | 1.3 | | 23 | % |
Acquisition costs | | 10.8 | | 10.8 | | 0 | % |
Other operating expenses | | 20.7 | | 17.2 | | 20 | % |
Interest and related expenses | | 6.6 | | 4.0 | | 65 | % |
Total expenses | | 35.0 | | 32.9 | | 6 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 50.4 | | 41.4 | | 22 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Total provision for income taxes | | 4.3 | | 5.8 | | (26 | )% |
| | | | | | | |
Operating income(b) | | 46.1 | | 35.6 | | 29 | % |
| | | | | | | |
After-tax realized losses on investments | | (0.2 | ) | (0.6 | ) | (67 | )% |
After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives | | (6.9 | ) | (0.1 | ) | NM | |
| | | | | | | |
Net income | | $ | 39.0 | | $ | 34.9 | | 12 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Per diluted share | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 0.67 | | $ | 0.48 | | 40 | % |
After-tax realized losses on investments | | — | | (0.01 | ) | — | |
After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives | | (0.10 | ) | — | | — | |
Net income | | $ | 0.57 | | $ | 0.47 | | 21 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Effect of refundings | | | | | | | |
Earned premiums from refundings | | $ | 4.9 | | $ | 3.6 | | 36 | % |
Net income effect | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 1.6 | | 25 | % |
Net income per diluted share effect | | $ | 0.03 | | $ | 0.02 | | 50 | % |
| | | | | | | |
Weighted average shares outstanding | | | | | | | |
Basic shares outstanding | | 67.6 | | 73.8 | | (8 | )% |
Plus: effect of options | | 0.6 | | 0.6 | | 0 | % |
Plus: effect of restricted stock | | 0.6 | | 0.5 | | 20 | % |
Diluted shares outstanding | | 68.8 | | 74.9 | | (8 | )% |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
NM = Not meaningful
2
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of : | |
| | March 31, | | December 31, | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | | $ | 2,391.7 | | $ | 2,331.1 | |
Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value | | 96.7 | | 134.1 | |
Total investments | | 2,488.4 | | 2,465.1 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 5.7 | | 4.8 | |
Accrued investment income | | 23.6 | | 24.2 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 220.4 | | 217.0 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 9.5 | | 7.5 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 10.6 | | 10.9 | |
Premiums receivable | | 36.2 | | 41.6 | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 85.4 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 45.6 | | 52.6 | |
Other assets | | 27.6 | | 26.2 | |
Total assets | | $ | 2,953.1 | | $ | 2,935.3 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserves | | $ | 661.0 | | $ | 644.5 | |
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 121.0 | | 120.6 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 16.8 | | 36.0 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 2.7 | | 7.2 | |
Current income taxes payable | | 6.5 | | 7.2 | |
Deferred income taxes | | 21.1 | | 39.9 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 24.7 | | 21.4 | |
Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments | | 9.4 | | 6.7 | |
Senior Notes | | 197.4 | | 197.4 | |
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures | | 149.7 | | 149.7 | |
Liability for tax basis step-up adjustment | | 10.5 | | 15.0 | |
Other liabilities | | 38.0 | | 39.0 | |
Total liabilities | | 1,258.8 | | 1,284.6 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 0.7 | | 0.7 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 716.6 | | 711.3 | |
Retained earnings | | 935.7 | | 896.9 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 41.3 | | 41.9 | |
Total shareholders’ equity | | 1,694.3 | | 1,650.8 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | $ | 2,953.1 | | $ | 2,935.3 | |
3
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended March 31, 2007 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP):(a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 8.8 | | $ | 4.7 | | $ | — | | $ | 13.6 | | | | $ | 13.6 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 44.9 | | 3.9 | | — | | 48.9 | | | | 48.9 | |
International | | 29.9 | | 14.4 | | — | | 44.3 | | | | 44.3 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 83.7 | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | — | | $ | 106.7 | | | | $ | 106.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 49.5 | | $ | 18.7 | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 69.2 | | $ | 3.3 | | $ | 72.5 | |
Net written premiums | | 48.9 | | 18.5 | | 1.0 | | 68.4 | | — | | 68.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 28.9 | | 21.9 | | 3.1 | | 53.9 | | — | | 53.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 1.2 | | (4.8 | ) | 0.1 | | (3.5 | ) | (1.3 | ) | (4.7 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.9 | | 0.7 | | 1.6 | | — | | 1.6 | |
Acquisition costs | | 3.0 | | 7.7 | | 0.2 | | 10.8 | | — | | 10.8 | |
Operating expenses | | 15.9 | | 4.4 | | 0.3 | | 20.7 | | — | | 20.7 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | 8.3 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | (1.3 | ) | $ | 28.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 8.8 | | $ | 13.6 | | $ | 1.8 | | $ | 24.2 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 25.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 4.2 | % | (21.9 | )% | 3.3 | % | (6.5 | )% | | | (8.8 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 65.4 | % | 59.6 | % | 37.8 | % | 61.5 | % | | | 61.5 | % |
Combined ratio | | 69.6 | % | 37.7 | % | 41.1 | % | 55.0 | % | | | 52.7 | % |
| | Quarter Ended March 31, 2006 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | — | | $ | 16.9 | | | | $ | 16.9 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 27.6 | | 3.4 | | — | | 30.9 | | | | 30.9 | |
International | | 5.6 | | 8.3 | | — | | 13.9 | | | | 13.9 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 41.6 | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | — | | $ | 61.8 | | | | $ | 61.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 30.2 | | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 2.6 | | $ | 51.6 | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | 55.4 | |
Net written premiums | | 29.7 | | 18.5 | | 2.6 | | 50.8 | | — | | 50.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 20.7 | | 23.3 | | 4.2 | | 48.1 | | — | | 48.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.8 | ) | 2.8 | | (0.2 | ) | 0.8 | | (1.2 | ) | (0.4 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.4 | | 0.9 | | 1.3 | | — | | 1.3 | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.8 | | 8.7 | | 0.3 | | 10.8 | | — | | 10.8 | |
Operating expenses | | 13.4 | | 3.4 | | 0.3 | | 17.2 | | — | | 17.2 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 13.5 | | $ | 15.3 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 30.2 | | $ | (1.2 | ) | $ | 29.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 7.2 | | $ | 8.0 | | $ | 2.8 | | $ | 18.0 | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 19.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | (8.7 | )% | 12.0 | % | (3.7 | )% | 1.8 | % | | | (0.7 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 73.8 | % | 53.6 | % | 36.1 | % | 61.1 | % | | | 61.1 | % |
Combined ratio | | 65.1 | % | 65.6 | % | 32.4 | % | 62.9 | % | | | 60.4 | % |
1. Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
4
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a) | | $ | 41.6 | | $ | 98.8 | | $ | 90.9 | | $ | 70.8 | | $ | 83.7 | |
Less: Present value of installment premiums(a) | | 33.2 | | 53.1 | | 69.4 | | 48.6 | | 63.0 | |
Upfront gross written premiums (GWP) | | 8.5 | | 45.7 | | 21.5 | | 22.2 | | 20.7 | |
Plus: Installment GWP | | 21.8 | | 22.7 | | 20.4 | | 26.5 | | 28.8 | |
Financial guaranty direct GWP | | $ | 30.2 | | $ | 68.4 | | $ | 41.9 | | $ | 48.7 | | $ | 49.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 30.2 | | $ | 68.4 | | $ | 41.9 | | $ | 48.7 | | $ | 49.5 | |
Net written premiums | | 29.7 | | 67.8 | | 41.5 | | 48.0 | | 48.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Scheduled net earned premiums | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | 0.9 | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | 1.3 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 18.6 | | 18.8 | | 18.1 | | 19.8 | | 21.3 | |
International | | 1.2 | | 1.4 | | 2.7 | | 5.3 | | 4.6 | |
Total scheduled net earned premiums | | 20.7 | | 21.2 | | 21.8 | | 26.0 | | 27.2 | |
Net earned premiums from refundings | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 1.7 | |
Total net earned premiums | | 20.7 | | 21.2 | | 21.8 | | 26.0 | | 28.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | (2.0 | ) | (0.4 | ) | (0.3 | ) | 0.9 | | 0.2 | |
Portfolio | | 0.2 | | (2.1 | ) | — | | 1.7 | | 1.0 | |
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.8 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (0.3 | ) | 2.6 | | 1.2 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.8 | | 2.3 | | 2.1 | �� | 2.2 | | 3.0 | |
Operating expenses | | 13.4 | | 12.0 | | 12.2 | | 14.7 | | 15.9 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 13.5 | | $ | 11.8 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 19.5 | | $ | 20.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 7.2 | | $ | 9.4 | | $ | 7.7 | | $ | 6.5 | | $ | 8.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | (8.7 | )% | (11.7 | )% | (1.3 | )% | 10.0 | % | 4.2 | % |
Expense ratio | | 73.8 | % | 67.4 | % | 65.7 | % | 65.1 | % | 65.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 65.1 | % | 55.7 | % | 64.4 | % | 75.1 | % | 69.6 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
5
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | |
PVP (a): | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 8.2 | | $ | 13.0 | | $ | 8.8 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 27.6 | | 41.0 | | 45.7 | | 32.5 | | 44.9 | |
International | | 5.6 | | 51.8 | | 36.9 | | 25.3 | | 29.9 | |
Total | | $ | 41.6 | | $ | 98.8 | | $ | 90.9 | | $ | 70.8 | | $ | 83.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross par written: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 283 | | $ | 326 | | $ | 423 | | $ | 628 | | $ | 609 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 4,446 | | 10,943 | | 4,968 | | 6,486 | | 5,776 | |
International | | 648 | | 2,210 | | 5,375 | | 5,007 | | 2,190 | |
Total | | $ | 5,377 | | $ | 13,479 | | $ | 10,766 | | $ | 12,121 | | $ | 8,575 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 3,250 | | $ | 2,471 | | $ | 2,878 | | $ | 3,499 | | $ | 3,989 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 31,559 | | 38,847 | | 39,191 | | 44,467 | | 48,430 | |
International | | 7,215 | | 9,806 | | 14,865 | | 19,868 | | 21,319 | |
Total | | $ | 42,024 | | $ | 51,124 | | $ | 56,935 | | $ | 67,834 | | $ | 73,738 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net present value of installment premiums in force:(d) | | $ | 265.7 | | $ | 300.5 | | $ | 358.4 | | $ | 408.2 | | $ | 425.3 | |
Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance | | 48.6 | | 95.2 | | 114.9 | | 136.8 | | 156.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
6
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment 1 (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a) | | $ | 20.1 | �� | $ | 49.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 45.2 | | $ | 23.1 | |
Less: Present value of installment premiums(a) | | 11.0 | | 17.7 | | 16.8 | | 20.8 | | 14.2 | |
Upfront gross written premiums (GWP) | | 9.1 | | 31.9 | | 19.8 | | 24.4 | | 8.9 | |
Plus: Installment GWP | | 9.7 | | 9.8 | | 9.9 | | 9.3 | | 9.8 | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP | | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 41.7 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 33.7 | | $ | 18.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treaty | | $ | 12.0 | | $ | 29.1 | | $ | 22.4 | | $ | 19.0 | | $ | 14.2 | |
Facultative | | 6.8 | | 12.6 | | 7.3 | | 14.7 | | 4.5 | |
Total gross written premiums | | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 41.7 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 33.7 | | $ | 18.7 | |
Net written premiums | | 18.5 | | 41.3 | | 29.7 | | 33.7 | | 18.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Scheduled net earned premiums | | 19.7 | | 21.4 | | 21.3 | | 20.8 | | 18.7 | |
Net earned premiums from refundings | | 3.6 | | 1.7 | | 4.1 | | 1.8 | | 3.2 | |
Total net earned premiums | | 23.3 | | 23.1 | | 25.4 | | 22.6 | | 21.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | 2.3 | | 1.8 | | (1.2 | ) | 2.4 | | (7.3 | ) |
Portfolio | | 0.5 | | 3.9 | | 3.0 | | 0.4 | | 2.5 | |
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 2.8 | | 5.7 | | 1.8 | | 2.8 | | (4.8 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | 0.4 | | 1.0 | | 0.7 | | 0.6 | | 0.9 | |
Acquisition costs | | 8.7 | | 8.5 | | 8.9 | | 7.9 | | 7.7 | |
Operating expenses | | 3.4 | | 3.4 | | 3.9 | | 3.8 | | 4.4 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 15.3 | | $ | 18.5 | | $ | 15.3 | | $ | 15.2 | | $ | 8.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 8.0 | | $ | 4.6 | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | 7.4 | | $ | 13.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 12.0 | % | 24.6 | % | 7.1 | % | 12.6 | % | (21.9 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 53.6 | % | 55.4 | % | 53.3 | % | 54.7 | % | 59.6 | % |
Combined ratio | | 65.6 | % | 80.0 | % | 60.4 | % | 67.3 | % | 37.7 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
1. Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
7
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment 1 (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | |
PVP (a): | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 11.4 | | $ | 30.4 | | $ | 4.7 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 3.4 | | 2.0 | | 3.8 | | 4.5 | | 3.9 | |
International | | 8.3 | | 17.9 | | 21.4 | | 10.4 | | 14.4 | |
Total | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | 49.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 45.2 | | $ | 23.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross par written: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 1,631 | | $ | 718 | | $ | 1,475 | | $ | 1,367 | | $ | 754 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 444 | | 311 | | 453 | | 127 | | 496 | |
International | | 677 | | 775 | | 800 | | 371 | | 537 | |
Total | | $ | 2,752 | | $ | 1,804 | | $ | 2,727 | | $ | 1,865 | | $ | 1,787 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 48,309 | | $ | 48,316 | | $ | 48,335 | | $ | 48,836 | | $ | 48,929 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 9,387 | | 8,314 | | 8,046 | | 7,116 | | 6,945 | |
International | | 7,196 | | 7,857 | | 8,263 | | 8,510 | | 9,240 | |
Total | | $ | 64,893 | | $ | 64,487 | | $ | 64,644 | | $ | 64,462 | | $ | 65,115 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net present value of installment premiums in force(d) | | $ | 153.8 | | $ | 158.9 | | $ | 164.5 | | $ | 164.9 | | $ | 160.2 | |
Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance | | 431.2 | | 449.4 | | 453.8 | | 464.8 | | 460.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
1. Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
8
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Mortgage Guaranty Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 2.6 | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 1.9 | | $ | 2.7 | | $ | 1.0 | |
Net written premiums | | 2.6 | | 1.2 | | 1.9 | | 2.7 | | 1.0 | |
Net earned premiums | | 4.2 | | 3.7 | | 4.9 | | 9.9 | | 3.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | — | | 0.1 | | 0.1 | | (0.1 | ) | — | |
Portfolio and IBNR | | (0.2 | ) | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | (4.9 | ) | 0.1 | |
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (0.2 | ) | 0.4 | | 0.4 | | (5.0 | ) | 0.1 | |
Profit commission expense | | 0.9 | | 0.7 | | 0.9 | | 4.3 | | 0.7 | |
Acquisition costs | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | 1.3 | | 0.2 | |
Operating expenses | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | 0.4 | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 1.7 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 1.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 2.8 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 8.9 | | $ | 1.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | (3.7 | )% | 9.4 | % | 8.2 | % | (50.7 | )% | 3.3 | % |
Expense ratio | | 36.1 | % | 36.4 | % | 31.9 | % | 60.2 | % | 37.8 | % |
Combined ratio | | 32.4 | % | 45.8 | % | 40.1 | % | 9.5 | % | 41.1 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Risk in force | | $ | 1,970 | | $ | 1,960 | | $ | 2,003 | | $ | 1,822 | | $ | 1,374 | |
Risk written | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance | | 48.1 | | 45.6 | | 42.6 | | 35.4 | | 33.5 | |
9
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Other Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 3.3 | |
Net written premiums | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.2 | ) | (10.1 | ) | (1.0 | ) | (1.2 | ) | (1.3 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Operating expenses | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Total expenses | | $ | (1.2 | ) | $ | (10.1 | ) | $ | (1.0 | ) | $ | (1.2 | ) | $ | (1.3 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 1.3 | |
10
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type and Analysis of Net Claims Paid
(dollars in millions)
| | As of March 31, 2007 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
Reserves by segment and type: | | | | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Case | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 32.9 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 34.2 | | $ | 6.6 | | $ | 40.8 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 7.4 | | 7.4 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits | | 6.2 | | 28.6 | | 2.3 | | 37.1 | | — | | 37.1 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits | | 3.1 | | 32.6 | | — | | 35.7 | | — | | 35.7 | |
Total | | $ | 10.5 | | $ | 94.1 | | $ | 2.4 | | $ | 107.0 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 121.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | As of December 31, 2006 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
Reserves by segment and type: | | | | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Case | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 36.1 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 37.2 | | $ | 6.8 | | $ | 44.0 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 7.4 | | 7.4 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits | | 6.1 | | 29.1 | | 2.2 | | 37.4 | | — | | 37.4 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits | | 2.2 | | 29.6 | | — | | 31.8 | | — | | 31.8 | |
Total | | $ | 9.3 | | $ | 94.8 | | $ | 2.3 | | $ | 106.4 | | $ | 14.2 | | $ | 120.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Analysis of net claims paid
| | | | | | Full Year | | Full Year | |
| | 1Q-07 | | 1Q-06 | | 2006 | | 2005 | |
Net claims paid by segment: | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | $ | (1.3 | ) | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 1.7 | | $ | 4.7 | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | (4.2 | ) | 1.4 | | 11.7 | | (66.6 | ) |
Mortgage Guaranty | | — | | 0.1 | | 0.3 | | 0.5 | |
Total Financial Guaranty | | $ | (5.5 | ) | $ | 3.5 | | $ | 13.7 | | $ | (61.4 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums by segment: | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | $ | 28.9 | | $ | 20.7 | | $ | 89.7 | | $ | 74.5 | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | 21.9 | | 23.3 | | 94.4 | | 105.6 | |
Mortgage Guaranty | | 3.1 | | 4.2 | | 22.7 | | 18.6 | |
Total Financial Guaranty | | $ | 53.9 | | $ | 48.1 | | $ | 206.7 | | $ | 198.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Ratio of net claims paid by segment: | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | (4.5 | )% | 9.7 | % | 1.9 | % | 6.3 | % |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | (19.2 | )% | 6.0 | % | 12.4 | % | (63.1 | )% |
Mortgage Guaranty | | 0.0 | % | 2.4 | % | 1.3 | % | 2.7 | % |
Total Financial Guaranty | | (10.2 | )% | 7.3 | % | 6.6 | % | (30.9 | )% |
11
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)
| | | | Pre-Tax | | After-Tax | | | | Annualized | |
| | Amortized | | Book | | Book | | | | Investment | |
| | Cost | | Yield | | Yield | | Fair Value | | Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | $ | 144.5 | | 4.9% | | 4.2% | | $ | 146.7 | | $ | 7.0 | |
Agency obligations | | 133.1 | | 5.5% | | 5.1% | | 136.5 | | 7.3 | |
Foreign government securities | | 47.9 | | 4.9% | | 3.2% | | 47.4 | | 2.3 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 379.2 | | 4.7% | | 4.4% | | 391.9 | | 17.7 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 511.5 | | 4.9% | | 4.6% | | 538.1 | | 25.1 | |
Corporate securities | | 136.9 | | 5.6% | | 4.7% | | 139.6 | | 7.7 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 742.1 | | 5.4% | | 4.6% | | 739.5 | | 39.9 | |
PACs | | 76.6 | | 4.8% | | 4.5% | | 75.6 | | 3.7 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 176.5 | | 5.0% | | 4.6% | | 176.4 | | 8.9 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | 2,348.3 | | 5.1% | | 4.6% | | 2,391.7 | | 119.6 | |
Short-term investments | | 96.7 | | 4.5% | | 3.4% | | 96.7 | | 4.4 | |
Total investments | | $ | 2,445.0 | | 5.1% | | 4.5% | | $ | 2,488.4 | | $ | 124.0 | |
Ratings distribution(1): | | Fair Value | | % | |
Treasury and U.S. government obligations | | $146.7 | | 6.1% | |
Agency obligations | | 136.5 | | 5.7% | |
AAA/Aaa | | 1,695.3 | | 70.9% | |
AA/Aa | | 300.4 | | 12.6% | |
A/A | | 112.8 | | 4.7% | |
Total | | $2,391.7 | | 100.0% | |
| | | | | |
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): | | | | 4.1 | |
(1) Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.
12
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1)
(dollars in millions)
| | Estimated Net | | Estimated Ending Net | |
| | Debt Service | | Debt Service | |
| | Amortization | | Outstanding | |
| | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | | | | |
2007 (as of March 31) | | | | $ | 78,555 | |
2007 (April — December) | | $ | 5,377 | | 73,178 | |
2008 | | 5,495 | | 67,683 | |
2009 | | 4,073 | | 63,610 | |
2010 | | 5,989 | | 57,621 | |
2011 | | 5,686 | | 51,935 | |
| | | | | |
2007—2011 | | 26,620 | | 51,935 | |
2012—2016 | | 33,486 | | 18,449 | |
2017—2021 | | 6,725 | | 11,724 | |
2022—2026 | | 2,242 | | 9,482 | |
After 2026 | | 9,482 | | — | |
Total | | $ | 78,555 | | | |
| | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | | | | |
2007 (as of March 31) | | | | $ | 108,297 | |
2007 (April — December) | | $ | 4,757 | | 103,540 | |
2008 | | 5,544 | | 97,996 | |
2009 | | 5,792 | | 92,204 | |
2010 | | 5,319 | | 86,885 | |
2011 | | 5,209 | | 81,676 | |
| | | | | |
2007—2011 | | 26,621 | | 81,676 | |
2012—2016 | | 23,931 | | 57,745 | |
2017—2021 | | 19,924 | | 37,821 | |
2022—2026 | | 16,039 | | 21,782 | |
After 2026 | | 21,782 | | — | |
Total | | $ | 108,297 | | | |
| | | | | |
Total Financial Guaranty | | | | | |
2007 (as of March 31) | | | | $ | 186,852 | |
2007 (April — December) | | $ | 10,134 | | 176,718 | |
2008 | | 11,039 | | 165,679 | |
2009 | | 9,865 | | 155,814 | |
2010 | | 11,308 | | 144,506 | |
2011 | | 10,895 | | 133,611 | |
| | | | | |
2007—2011 | | 53,241 | | 133,611 | |
2012—2016 | | 57,418 | | 76,194 | |
2017—2021 | | 26,649 | | 49,545 | |
2022—2026 | | 18,281 | | 31,264 | |
After 2026 | | 31,264 | | — | |
Total | | $ | 186,852 | | | |
(1) Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of March 31, 2007. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
13
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums
(dollars in millions)
| | | | Estimated Net Unearned | | Estimated | | Total Estimated Net Future | |
| | Net Unearned | | Premium | | Net Future | | Premium | |
| | Premiums(1) | | Amortization | | Installments | | Earnings | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 (as of March 31) | | $ | 156.8 | | | | | | | |
2007 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs) | | 136.5 | | $ | 20.3 | | $ | 59.5 | | $ | 79.8 | |
2008 | | 129.4 | | 7.1 | | 79.9 | | 87.0 | |
2009 | | 123.1 | | 6.3 | | 72.3 | | 78.5 | |
2010 | | 117.1 | | 6.0 | | 61.5 | | 67.5 | |
2011 | | 111.5 | | 5.7 | | 56.0 | | 61.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007—2011 | | 111.5 | | 45.3 | | 329.2 | | 374.5 | |
2012—2016 | | 86.3 | | 25.2 | | 150.7 | | 175.8 | |
2017—2021 | | 66.0 | | 20.3 | | 42.9 | | 63.3 | |
2022—2026 | | 49.2 | | 16.8 | | 21.3 | | 38.1 | |
After 2026 | | — | | 49.2 | | 30.0 | | 79.2 | |
Total | | | | $ | 156.8 | | $ | 574.1 | | $ | 730.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 (as of March 31) | | $ | 460.9 | | | | | | | |
2007 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs) | | 427.0 | | $ | 33.9 | | $ | 17.3 | | $ | 51.2 | |
2008 | | 392.8 | | 34.2 | | 27.2 | | 61.3 | |
2009 | | 360.3 | | 32.5 | | 26.5 | | 59.0 | |
2010 | | 329.7 | | 30.6 | | 24.4 | | 55.0 | |
2011 | | 300.9 | | 28.8 | | 23.1 | | 51.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007—2011 | | 300.9 | | 160.0 | | 118.5 | | 278.5 | |
2012—2016 | | 184.5 | | 116.5 | | 92.8 | | 209.3 | |
2017—2021 | | 107.2 | | 77.2 | | 65.3 | | 142.6 | |
2022—2026 | | 57.2 | | 50.0 | | 50.1 | | 100.1 | |
After 2026 | | — | | 57.2 | | 68.4 | | 125.5 | |
Total | | | | $ | 460.9 | | $ | 395.1 | | $ | 856.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Total Financial Guaranty | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 (as of March 31) | | $ | 617.7 | | | | | | | |
2007 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs) | | 563.5 | | $ | 54.2 | | $ | 76.8 | | $ | 131.0 | |
2008 | | 522.2 | | 41.3 | | 107.0 | | 148.3 | |
2009 | | 483.4 | | 38.8 | | 98.8 | | 137.6 | |
2010 | | 446.9 | | 36.5 | | 86.0 | | 122.5 | |
2011 | | 412.4 | | 34.5 | | 79.2 | | 113.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007—2011 | | 412.4 | | 205.3 | | 447.8 | | 653.0 | |
2012—2016 | | 270.8 | | 141.6 | | 243.5 | | 385.1 | |
2017—2021 | | 173.2 | | 97.6 | | 108.2 | | 205.8 | |
2022—2026 | | 106.4 | | 66.8 | | 71.4 | | 138.2 | |
After 2026 | | — | | 106.4 | | 98.4 | | 204.7 | |
Total | | | | $ | 617.7 | | $ | 969.2 | | $ | 1,586.9 | |
(1) Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.
14
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 7)
As of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
Sector | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating(7) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating(7) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating(7) | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 983 | | A+ | | $ | 11,632 | | A+ | | $ | 12,615 | | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 1,316 | | BBB+ | | 10,717 | | A+ | | 12,032 | | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 126 | | BBB+ | | 9,490 | | A+ | | 9,616 | | A+ | |
Transportation | | 42 | | AAA | | 6,661 | | A | | 6,703 | | A | |
Healthcare | | 1,098 | | A- | | 5,561 | | A | | 6,659 | | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 39 | | AAA | | 1,617 | | BBB+ | | 1,656 | | A- | |
Higher education | | 373 | | BBB | | 918 | | A+ | | 1,292 | | A | |
Housing | | — | | — | | 1,030 | | AA- | | 1,030 | | AA- | |
Structured municipal(1) | | — | | — | | 570 | | AAA | | 570 | | AAA | |
Other public finance(2) | | 12 | | BBB | | 732 | | A | | 744 | | A | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 3,989 | | A- | | $ | 48,929 | | A+ | | $ | 52,918 | | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations(3) | | $ | 27,144 | | AAA | | $ | 1,602 | | AA+ | | $ | 28,746 | | AAA | |
Commercial receivables(4) | | 6,029 | | AAA | | 1,958 | | A- | | 7,987 | | AA | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 6,616 | | AAA | | 384 | | AA- | | 6,999 | | AA+ | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 3,562 | | A | | 1,592 | | A- | | 5,154 | | A | |
Consumer receivables(5) | | 2,359 | | AA+ | | 670 | | BBB | | 3,029 | | AA | |
Other structured finance(6) | | 2,720 | | AA+ | | 739 | | A+ | | 3,459 | | AA+ | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 48,430 | | AA+ | | $ | 6,945 | | A | | $ | 55,375 | | AA+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Regulated Utilities | | $ | 2,883 | | A+ | | $ | 2,738 | | BBB+ | | $ | 5,621 | | A- | |
Pooled corporate obligations(3) | | 4,025 | | AAA | | 1,108 | | AAA | | 5,133 | | AAA | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 4,518 | | AAA | | 294 | | AA | | 4,811 | | AAA | |
Pooled infrastructure | | 4,449 | | AAA | | — | | — | | 4,449 | | AAA | |
Infrastructure | | 885 | | AA | | 3,002 | | BBB | | 3,887 | | BBB+ | |
Other structured finance | | 2,279 | | AA | | 1,185 | | A | | 3,464 | | AA- | |
Public finance | | 834 | | A+ | | 486 | | A | | 1,320 | | A+ | |
Future flow | | 658 | | BBB | | 297 | | BBB | | 955 | | BBB | |
Insurance securitizations | | 789 | | A- | | 131 | | A | | 920 | | A- | |
Total international | | $ | 21,319 | | AA | | $ | 9,240 | | A- | | $ | 30,559 | | AA- | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 73,738 | | AA+ | | $ | 65,115 | | A | | $ | 138,853 | | AA- | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | | | | | | | | | $ | 1,374 | | N/A | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(5) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(6) Other structured finance: includes trade receivable securitizations, secured structured lending and manufactured housing.
(7) Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
15
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 7)
(dollars in millions)
Gross Par Written by Asset Type
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
Sector | | 1Q-07 | | 1Q-07 | | 1Q-07 | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | |
Tax backed | | $ | 558 | | $ | 374 | | $ | 932 | |
General obligation | | 28 | | 173 | | 201 | |
Healthcare | | — | | 109 | | 109 | |
Municipal utilities | | 6 | | 45 | | 52 | |
Investor-owned utilities | | — | | 50 | | 50 | |
Higher education | | 18 | | 1 | | 18 | |
Housing | | — | | — | | — | |
Transportation | | — | | — | | — | |
Structured municipal(1) | | — | | — | | — | |
Other public finance(2) | | — | | 1 | | 1 | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 609 | | $ | 754 | | $ | 1,363 | |
| | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations(3) | | $ | 3,833 | | $ | 290 | | $ | 4,123 | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 1,000 | | 4 | | 1,004 | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 416 | | 192 | | 609 | |
Consumer receivables(5) | | 500 | | 3 | | 503 | |
Commercial receivables(4) | | — | | 7 | | 7 | |
Other structured finance(6) | | 28 | | — | | 28 | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 5,776 | | $ | 496 | | $ | 6,273 | |
| | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations(3) | | $ | 1,504 | | $ | 89 | | $ | 1,593 | |
Regulated utilities | | 686 | | 156 | | 842 | |
Infrastructure | | — | | 205 | | 205 | |
Other structured finance | | — | | 53 | | 53 | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | — | | 18 | | 18 | |
Public finance | | — | | 16 | | 16 | |
Pooled infrastructure | | — | | — | | — | |
Future flow | | — | | — | | — | |
Insurance securitizations | | — | | — | | — | |
Total international | | $ | 2,190 | | $ | 537 | | $ | 2,726 | |
| | | | | | | |
Total gross par written | | $ | 8,575 | | $ | 1,787 | | $ | 10,362 | |
1. Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
2. Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
3. Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
4. Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
5. Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
6. Other structured finance: includes trade receivable securitizations, secured structured lending and manufactured housing.
16
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 7)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | As of March 31, 2007 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
Ratings(1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 59,021 | | 80.0% | | $ | 4,799 | | 7.4% | | $ | 63,821 | | 46.0% | |
AA/Aa | | 2,732 | | 3.7% | | 19,340 | | 29.7% | | 22,072 | | 15.9% | |
A/A | | 5,764 | | 7.8% | | 26,621 | | 40.9% | | 32,385 | | 23.2% | |
BBB/Baa | | 6,113 | | 8.3% | | 13,279 | | 20.4% | | 19,392 | | 14.0% | |
Below investment grade | | 107 | | 0.1% | | 1,076 | | 1.7% | | 1,183 | | 0.9% | |
Total exposures | | $ | 73,738 | | 100.0% | | $ | 65,115 | | 100.0% | | $ | 138,853 | | 100.0% | |
| | As of December 31, 2006 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
Ratings(1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 52,606 | | 77.6% | | $ | 4,448 | | 6.9% | | $ | 57,054 | | 43.1% | |
AA/Aa | | 4,028 | | 5.9% | | 18,955 | | 29.4% | | 22,983 | | 17.4% | |
A/A | | 5,757 | | 8.5% | | 27,065 | | 42.0% | | 32,822 | | 24.9% | |
BBB/Baa | | 5,351 | | 7.9% | | 12,831 | | 19.9% | | 18,182 | | 13.7% | |
Below investment grade | | 92 | | 0.1% | | 1,163 | | 1.8% | | 1,255 | | 0.9% | |
Total exposures | | $ | 67,834 | | 100.0% | | $ | 64,462 | | 100.0% | | $ | 132,296 | | 100.0% | |
1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
17
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 7)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of March 31, 2007
U.S.: | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
California | | $ | 7,771 | | 5.6% | |
New York | | 5,874 | | 4.2% | |
Texas | | 3,306 | | 2.4% | |
Illinois | | 2,997 | | 2.2% | |
Florida | | 2,796 | | 2.0% | |
Massachusetts | | 2,625 | | 1.9% | |
Pennsylvania | | 2,341 | | 1.7% | |
New Jersey | | 2,032 | | 1.5% | |
Puerto Rico | | 1,954 | | 1.4% | |
Washington | | 1,906 | | 1.4% | |
Other states | | 19,316 | | 13.9% | |
Mortgage and structured (multiple states) | | 55,375 | | 39.9% | |
Total U.S. | | $ | 108,293 | | 78.0% | |
| | | | | |
International: | | | | | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 19,617 | | 14.1% | |
Germany | | 2,813 | | 2.0% | |
Australia | | 1,302 | | 0.9% | |
Turkey | | 623 | | 0.4% | |
Italy | | 466 | | 0.3% | |
Other | | 5,739 | | 4.1% | |
Total International | | $ | 30,559 | | 22.0% | |
| | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 138,853 | | 100.0% | |
18
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 7)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of pooled corporate obligations
| | March 31, 2007 | | December 31, 2006 | |
| | Net Par | | | | Net Par | | | |
Ratings(1) | | Outstanding | | % | | Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 31,553 | | 93.1% | | $ | 25,565 | | 87.6% | |
AA/Aa | | 2,202 | | 6.5% | | 3,473 | | 11.9% | |
A/A | | 74 | | 0.2% | | 75 | | 0.3% | |
BBB/Baa | | 17 | | 0.1% | | 17 | | 0.1% | |
Below investment grade | | 33 | | 0.1% | | 37 | | 0.1% | |
Total exposures | | $ | 33,879 | | 100.0% | | $ | 29,167 | | 100.0% | |
Distribution of pooled corporate obligations by year of issue as of March 31, 2007
| | Net Par | | | |
| | Outstanding | | % | |
2000 and prior | | $ | 264 | | 0.8% | |
2001 | | 562 | | 1.7% | |
2002 | | 3,036 | | 9.0% | |
2003 | | 2,256 | | 6.7% | |
2004 | | 1,589 | | 4.7% | |
2005 | | 7,384 | | 21.8% | |
2006 | | 13,598 | | 40.1% | |
2007 year to date | | 5,190 | | 15.3% | |
| | $ | 33,879 | | 100.0% | |
1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
19
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 7)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by ratings of residential mortgage-backed securities
| | March 31, 2007 | | December 31, 2006 | |
| | | | | | | | Total Net Par | | | | Net Par | | | |
Ratings(1) | | U.S. Prime | | U.S. Subprime | | International | | Outstanding | | % | | Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 1,422 | | $ | 6,519 | | $ | 4,311 | | $ | 12,253 | | 72.2% | | $ | 11,714 | | 72.2% | |
AA/Aa | | 121 | | 2 | | 207 | | 329 | | 1.9% | | 253 | | 1.6% | |
A/A | | 703 | | 174 | | 190 | | 1,067 | | 6.3% | | 1,241 | | 7.7% | |
BBB/Baa | | 2,908 | | 194 | | 103 | | 3,205 | | 18.9% | | 2,916 | | 18.0% | |
Below investment grade | | — | | 111 | | — | | 111 | | 0.7% | | 97 | | 0.6% | |
Total exposures | | $ | 5,154 | | $ | 6,999 | | $ | 4,811 | | $ | 16,965 | | 100.0% | | $ | 16,221 | | 100.0% | |
Distribution of U.S. subprime residential mortgage-backed securities by rating as of March 31, 2007
| | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Total | |
| | Net Par | | Net Par | | Net Par | |
Ratings(1) | | Outstanding | | Outstanding | | Outstanding | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 6,233 | | $ | 286 | | $ | 6,519 | |
AA/Aa | | — | | 2 | | 2 | |
A/A | | 154 | | 20 | | 174 | |
BBB/Baa | | 162 | | 31 | | 194 | |
Below investment grade | | 66 | | 45 | | 111 | |
| | $ | 6,616 | | $ | 384 | | $ | 6,999 | |
Distribution of residential mortgage-backed securities by year of issue as of March 31, 2007
| | | | | | | | Total Net Par | | | | |
| | U.S. Prime | | U.S. Subprime | | International | | Outstanding | | % | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | 105 | | $ | 65 | | $ | 67 | | $ | 237 | | 1.4% | | |
2001 | | 19 | | 28 | | 205 | | 252 | | 1.5% | | |
2002 | | 56 | | 23 | | 270 | | 349 | | 2.1% | | |
2003 | | 130 | | 482 | | 170 | | 782 | | 4.6% | | |
2004 | | 818 | | 665 | | 71 | | 1,555 | | 9.2% | | |
2005 | | 2,176 | | 111 | | 1,248 | | 3,536 | | 20.8% | | |
2006 | | 1,437 | | 4,625 | | 2,781 | | 8,843 | | 52.1% | | |
2007 year to date | | 412 | | 1,000 | | — | | 1,412 | | 8.3% | | |
| | $ | 5,154 | | $ | 6,999 | | $ | 4,811 | | $ | 16,965 | | 100.0% | | |
1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
20
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (7 of 7)
(dollars in millions)
Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| | As of March 31, | | As of December 31, | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | | 2005 | |
Sector | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating(7) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating(7) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating(7) | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 12,615 | | A+ | | $ | 12,700 | | A+ | | $ | 11,965 | | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 12,032 | | A+ | | 11,812 | | A+ | | 10,671 | | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 9,616 | | A+ | | 9,673 | | A+ | | 10,378 | | A+ | |
Transportation | | 6,703 | | A | | 6,302 | | A | | 6,407 | | A | |
Healthcare | | 6,659 | | A | | 6,580 | | A | | 6,003 | | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 1,656 | | A- | | 1,580 | | BBB+ | | 1,431 | | A- | |
Higher education | | 1,292 | | A | | 1,282 | | A | | 1,177 | | A | |
Housing | | 1,030 | | AA- | | 1,083 | | AA- | | 1,148 | | AA- | |
Structured municipal(1) | | 570 | | AAA | | 578 | | AAA | | 829 | | AAA | |
Other public finance(2) | | 744 | | A | | 745 | | A | | 760 | | A | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 52,918 | | A+ | | $ | 52,335 | | A+ | | $ | 50,769 | | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations(3) | | $ | 28,746 | | AAA | | $ | 25,604 | | AAA | | $ | 19,177 | | AAA | |
Commercial receivables(4) | | 7,987 | | AA | | 7,879 | | AA | | 4,358 | | AA- | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 6,999 | | AA+ | | 6,390 | | AA+ | | 4,221 | | AA+ | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 5,154 | | A | | 4,849 | | A | | 5,451 | | A | |
Consumer receivables(5) | | 3,029 | | AA | | 2,663 | | AA- | | 2,413 | | A | |
Other structured finance(6) | | 3,459 | | AA+ | | 4,199 | | AA | | 2,958 | | AA | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 55,375 | | AA+ | | $ | 51,583 | | AA+ | | $ | 38,578 | | AA | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Regulated utilities | | $ | 5,621 | | A- | | $ | 4,780 | | A- | | $ | — | | — | |
Pooled corporate obligations(3) | | 5,133 | | AAA | | 3,563 | | AAA | | 2,111 | | AAA | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 4,811 | | AAA | | 4,982 | | AAA | | 2,139 | | AA+ | |
Pooled infrastructure | | 4,449 | | AAA | | 4,616 | | AAA | | — | | — | |
Infrastructure | | 3,887 | | BBB+ | | 3,640 | | BBB+ | | 3,461 | | A- | |
Other structured finance | | 3,464 | | AA- | | 3,664 | | AA- | | 3,020 | | A | |
Public finance | | 1,320 | | A+ | | 1,202 | | A+ | | 1,456 | | A | |
Future flow | | 955 | | BBB | | 1,008 | | BBB | | 931 | | BBB | |
Insurance securitizations | | 920 | | A- | | 923 | | A- | | — | | — | |
Total international | | $ | 30,559 | | AA- | | $ | 28,378 | | AA- | | $ | 13,118 | | A+ | |
Total exposures | | $ | 138,853 | | AA- | | $ | 132,296 | | AA- | | $ | 102,465 | | AA- | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 1,374 | | N/A | | $ | 1,822 | | N/A | | $ | 2,332 | | N/A | |
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | March 31, 2007 | | December 31, 2006 | | December 31, 2005 | |
Ratings(7) | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 63,821 | | 46.0% | | $ | 57,054 | | 43.1% | | $ | 34,492 | | 33.7% | |
AA/Aa | | 22,072 | | 15.9% | | 22,983 | | 17.4% | | 19,978 | | 19.5% | |
A/A | | 32,385 | | 23.2% | | 32,822 | | 24.9% | | 30,258 | | 29.5% | |
BBB/Baa | | 19,392 | | 14.0% | | 18,182 | | 13.7% | | 16,404 | | 16.0% | |
Below investment grade | | 1,183 | | 0.9% | | 1,255 | | 0.9% | | 1,333 | | 1.3% | |
Total exposures | | $ | 138,853 | | 100.0% | | $ | 132,296 | | 100.0% | | $ | 102,465 | | 100.0% | |
1. Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
2 Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
3. Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
4 Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
5. Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
6. Other structured finance: includes trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending and manufactured housing.
7. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
21
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)
Non-Investment Grade Exposures by: Asset Type | | Weighted Average Remaining Life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating 1 | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 19.4 | | $ | 217 | | B+ | |
General obligation | | 14.5 | | 79 | | BB+ | |
Tax backed | | 16.5 | | 73 | | BB | |
Healthcare | | 10.8 | | 59 | | B+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 10.5 | | 13 | | C | |
Housing | | 13.3 | | 4 | | B- | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 10.8 | | 2 | | BB | |
Higher education | | 13.4 | | 1 | | BB+ | |
Structured municipal | | — | | — | | — | |
Other public finance | | 15.3 | | 4 | | D | |
Total U.S. public finance | | 16.6 | | $ | 451 | | BB- | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | |
Commercial Receivables | | 5.5 | | $ | 171 | | B+ | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 6.8 | | 111 | | B- | |
Pooled corporate obligations | | 4.5 | | 33 | | B | |
Consumer receivables | | 1.6 | | 2 | | BB | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 5.9 | | — | | D | |
Other structured finance | | 8.0 | | 134 | | BB- | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | 6.5 | | $ | 451 | | B+ | |
International | | | | | | | |
Infrastructure | | 19.0 | | $ | 256 | | C | |
Other structured finance | | 9.0 | | 25 | | B- | |
Pooled infrastructure | | — | | — | | — | |
Pooled corporate obligations | | — | | — | | — | |
Public finance | | — | | — | | — | |
Total international | | 18.1 | | $ | 281 | | CC | |
Total non-investment grade exposures | | 13.1 | | $ | 1,183 | | B | |
Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of March 31, 2007
Name or Description | | Weighted Average Remaining Life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating(1) | |
Eurotunnel—Fixed-Link Finance & Fixed-Link Finance(2) | | 20.7 | | $ | 222 | | D | |
Public Finance Infrastructure Transaction | | 21.1 | | 165 | | BB- | |
Structured Finance Domestic Manufactured Housing Transactions(3) | | 6.4 | | 122 | | BB+ | |
Structured Finance Domestic Auto Fleet Financing Transaction | | 2.5 | | 108 | | BB+ | |
Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation | | 15.4 | | 70 | | BB+ | |
Northwest Airlines EETC Transactions | | 8.3 | | 33 | | D | |
International Airport Facility | | 7.1 | | 33 | | BB | |
Structured Finance Domestic Franchise Loan Receivable Transactions(4) | | 13.5 | | 29 | | B | |
Louisiana State Stadium & Exposition District | | 20.3 | | 29 | | BB | |
New Orleans Louisiana Exhibit Hall—Morial | | 16.2 | | 29 | | BB | |
Total | | 14.5 | | $ | 840 | | B | |
1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
2. Exposure comprised of four series: $149.7 million, $38.3 million, $27.2 million, and $7.2 million - all rated ‘D’.
3. Exposure comprised of twelve series: 10 series totaling $119.5 million - rated ‘BB+’, $1.4 million rated ‘BB’, and $1.5 million rated ‘B’.
4. Exposure comprised of two series: one in the amount of $15.4 million and the other for $14.1 million both rated ‘B’.
22
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)
(dollars in millions)
Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category(1)
| | March 31, 2007 | |
Description | | | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of Credits in Category | |
Fundamentally sound risk | | $ | 137,623 | | 99.1% | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Closely monitored credits: | | | | | | | |
Category 1 | | 749 | | 0.5% | | 30 | |
Category 2 | | 321 | | 0.2% | | 18 | |
Category 3 | | 109 | | 0.1% | | 18 | |
Category 4 | | 22 | | — | | 13 | |
CMC Total | | 1,201 | | 0.9% | | 79 | |
Other below investment grade risk | | 29 | | — | | 58 | |
Total | | $ | 138,853 | | 100.0% | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | December 31, 2006 | |
Description | | | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of Credits in Category | |
Fundamentally sound risk | | $ | 130,944 | | 99.0% | | | |
| | | | | | | |
Closely monitored credits: | | | | | | | |
Category 1 | | 855 | | 0.6% | | 43 | |
Category 2 | | 318 | | 0.2% | | 13 | |
Category 3 | | 123 | | 0.1% | | 18 | |
Category 4 | | 22 | | — | | 13 | |
CMC Total | | 1,318 | | 1.0% | | 87 | |
Other below investment grade risk | | 34 | | — | | 68 | |
Total | | $ | 132,296 | | 100.0% | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
1. Our surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.
23
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 4)
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)
25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures
| | Net Par | | | |
Revenue Source | | | | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | |
California State General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 838 | | A+ | |
New York City General Obligation & Leases | | 687 | | A+ | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 665 | | A- | |
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases | | 658 | | AA- | |
Chicago Illinois General Obligation & Leases | | 624 | | AA- | |
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 619 | | BBB- | |
Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation | | 596 | | AA- | |
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer | | 578 | | A | |
Washington State General Obligation | | 563 | | AA | |
New York State MTA—Transportation Revenue | | 541 | | A | |
Los Angeles California Unified School District | | 521 | | AA- | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 520 | | AA | |
Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority | | 494 | | BBB | |
New York State General Obligation & Leases | | 464 | | AA | |
Energy Northwest | | 439 | | AA | |
Denver Colorado Airport System | | 428 | | A | |
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System | | 421 | | A+ | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 408 | | BBB+ | |
San Francisco California Airport | | 403 | | A | |
New Jersey State Turnpike Authority | | 350 | | A | |
Port Authority of New York & New Jersey | | 329 | | AA- | |
Massachusetts School Building Authority | | 327 | | AA | |
Chicago Illinois Public Building—Board Of Education | | 286 | | A | |
Los Angeles County Metro Trans—Sales Tax | | 285 | | AA- | |
Wisconsin State General Obligation | | 282 | | AA- | |
Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures | | $ | 12,326 | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
2. Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
24
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 4)
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)
25 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
| | Net Par | | | |
Revenue Source | | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | |
Structured Finance Corporate Pool | | $ | 914 | | AAA | |
Field Point III & IV, Limited | | 887 | | AA- | |
Private — CDO | | 760 | | AAA | |
Field Point I & II, Limited | | 742 | | AA- | |
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate | | 740 | | AAA | |
Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited | | 672 | | AA | |
Private — CDO | | 670 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO — IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Private — CDO | | 540 | | AAA | |
Private — Mortgage Backed Securities | | 500 | | A | |
Private — Consumer ABS | | 500 | | AAA | |
Private — Consumer ABS | | 500 | | AAA | |
Private — CDO | | 489 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate | | 438 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate | | 438 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate | | 438 | | AAA | |
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Cl 1-A | | 436 | | BBB- | |
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Cl 2-A | | 435 | | BBB- | |
Private — Consumer ABS | | 420 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate | | 410 | | AAA | |
Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 Class A1G | | 380 | | AAA | |
Private — CDO | | 373 | | AAA | |
Private — Mortgage Backed Securities | | 371 | | BBB- | |
Private — Consumer ABS | | 356 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO — HY Corporate | | 328 | | AAA | |
Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures | | $ | 13,331 | | | |
1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
2. Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 3 of 4)
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Healthcare Exposures
| | Net Par | | | | | |
Revenue Source | | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | | State | |
Covenant Health | | $ | 177 | | A- | | TN | |
Texas Health Resources | | 153 | | A+ | | TX | |
Ascension Health Credit Group | | 144 | | AA | | MO | |
Catholic Healthcare Partners | | 137 | | AA- | | OH | |
Catholic Healthcare West | | 132 | | A- | | CA | |
W.A. Foote Memorial Hospital | | 125 | | A | | MI | |
Sutter Health Obligated Group | | 117 | | AA- | | CA | |
Medstar Health Inc. | | 109 | | BBB | | MD | |
St. Barnabas Health Care System | | 106 | | BBB | | NJ | |
Methodist Hospital | | 102 | | A+ | | TX | |
Total top 10 healthcare exposures | | $ | 1,302 | | | | | |
10 Largest International Exposures
| | Net Par | | | |
Revenue Source | | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | |
Private — Mortgage Backed Securities | | $ | 1,477 | | AAA | |
Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC | | 1,284 | | AAA | |
Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2 | | 1,225 | | AAA | |
International Infrastructure Pool | | 972 | | AAA | |
International Infrastructure Pool | | 972 | | AAA | |
International Infrastructure Pool | | 972 | | AAA | |
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II | | 863 | | AAA | |
Nemus Funding No.1 PLC | | 694 | | AAA | |
Stichting Profile Securitisation I | | 669 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO — IG ABS | | 632 | | AAA | |
Total top 10 international exposures | | $ | 9,760 | | | |
1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
2. Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 4 of 4)
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Mortgage Servicers (Prime and Subprime)
Revenue Source | | Net Par Outstanding(1) | | |
Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. | | $ | 2,334 | | |
European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction) | | 1,477 | | |
Residential Funding Corporation | | 1,465 | | |
Paragon Finance PLC | | 1,284 | | |
Northern Rock | | 1,225 | | |
AMC Mortgage Services | | 1,033 | | |
Wells Fargo | | 888 | | |
East West Bank | | 839 | | |
Chevy Chase Bank, F.S.B. | | 550 | | |
Aurora Loan Services LLC | | 462 | | |
Total top 10 mortgage servicers (prime and subprime) exposures | | $ | 11,557 | | |
1. Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of March 31, 2007 | | As of December 31, 2006 | |
| | AGC | | AG Re(1) | | Consolidated | | AGC | | AG Re(1) | | Consolidated | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve(2) | | $ | 240 | | $ | 454 | | $ | 694 | | $ | 239 | | $ | 444 | | $ | 683 | |
Contingency reserve | | 663 | | — | | 663 | | 631 | | — | | 631 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 272 | | 758 | | 1,030 | | 286 | | 741 | | 1,027 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3) | | 13 | | 18 | | 31 | | 15 | | 18 | | 33 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 1,188 | | $ | 1,230 | | $ | 2,418 | | $ | 1,171 | | $ | 1,203 | | $ | 2,374 | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 272 | | $ | 758 | | $ | 1,030 | | $ | 286 | | $ | 741 | | $ | 1,027 | |
Contingency reserve | | 663 | | — | | 663 | | 631 | | — | | 631 | |
Qualified statutory capital | | 935 | | 758 | | 1,693 | | 917 | | 741 | | | |
Unearned premium reserve(2) | | 240 | | 454 | | 694 | | 239 | | 444 | | 683 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3) | | 13 | | 18 | | 31 | | 15 | | 18 | | 33 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | 1,188 | | 1,230 | | 2,418 | | 1,171 | | 1,203 | | 2,374 | |
Present value of installment premium (d) | | 365 | | 228 | | 593 | | 356 | | 230 | | 586 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 455 | | — | | 455 | | 455 | | — | | 455 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 2,008 | | $ | 1,458 | | $ | 3,466 | | $ | 1,982 | | $ | 1,433 | | $ | 3,415 | |
Net par insured outstanding | | $ | 72,902 | | $ | 66,037 | | $ | 138,853 | | $ | 68,370 | | $ | 63,927 | | $ | 132,296 | |
Net debt service outstanding | | $ | 89,938 | | $ | 97,050 | | $ | 186,852 | | $ | 85,522 | | $ | 94,652 | | $ | 180,174 | |
Ratios: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net par insured to statutory capital | | 78:1 | | 87:1 | | 82:1 | | 75:1 | | 86:1 | | 80:1 | |
Capital ratio(4) | | 96:1 | | 128:1 | | 110:1 | | 93:1 | | 128:1 | | 109:1 | |
Financial resources ratio(5) | | 45:1 | | 67:1 | | 54:1 | | 43:1 | | 66:1 | | 53:1 | |
1. AG Re numbers are our estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.
2. Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.
3. Loss & loss adjustment reserves for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.
4. Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.
5. Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
| | | | Year Ended December 31, | |
| | YTD 1Q-2007 | | 2006 | | 2005 | | 2004 | |
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Gross premiums written | | $ | 72.5 | | $ | 325.7 | | $ | 252.1 | | $ | 190.9 | |
Net earned premiums | | 53.9 | | 206.7 | | 198.7 | | 187.9 | |
Net investment income | | 31.5 | | 111.5 | | 96.8 | | 94.8 | |
Total expenses | | 35.0 | | 132.1 | | 64.9 | | 114.6 | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 40.3 | | 190.0 | | 229.6 | | 233.3 | |
Net income | | 39.0 | | 159.7 | | 188.4 | | 182.8 | |
Operating income | | 46.1 | | 157.2 | | 190.0 | | 141.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net income per diluted share | | $ | 0.57 | | $ | 2.15 | | $ | 2.53 | | $ | 2.44 | |
Operating income per diluted share | | $ | 0.67 | | $ | 2.12 | | $ | 2.55 | | $ | 1.88 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Financial Ratios | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | (8.8 | )% | (3.3 | )% | (35.0 | )% | (17.0 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 61.5 | % | 59.2 | % | 58.9 | % | 65.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 52.7 | % | 55.9 | % | 23.9 | % | 48.4 | % |
| | | | | | | | | |
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period) | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Total investments and cash | | $ | 2,494.1 | | $ | 2,469.9 | | $ | 2,256.0 | | $ | 2,157.9 | |
Total assets | | 2,953.1 | | 2,935.3 | | 2,696.3 | | 2,703.7 | |
Unearned premium reserves | | 661.0 | | 644.5 | | 537.1 | | 521.3 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 121.0 | | 120.6 | | 128.4 | | 236.2 | |
Senior Notes | | 197.4 | | 197.4 | | 197.3 | | 197.4 | |
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures | | 149.7 | | 149.7 | | — | | — | |
Shareholders’ equity | | 1,694.3 | | 1,650.8 | | 1,661.5 | | 1,527.6 | |
Book value per share | | $ | 25.04 | | $ | 24.44 | | $ | 22.22 | | $ | 20.19 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Other Financial Information | | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | | $ | 186,852 | | $ | 180,174 | | $ | 145,694 | | $ | 136,120 | |
Net par outstanding (end of period) | | 138,853 | | 132,296 | | 102,465 | | 95,592 | |
Gross par outstanding (end of period) | | 139,801 | | 133,303 | | 105,258 | | 98,221 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated qualified statutory capital | | 1,693 | | 1,658 | | 1,545 | | 1,351 | |
Consolidated policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | 2,418 | | 2,374 | | 2,182 | | 1,990 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Ratios: | | | | | | | | | |
Par insured to statutory capital | | 82:1 | | 80:1 | | 66:1 | | 71:1 | |
Capital ratio(1) | | 110:1 | | 109:1 | | 94:1 | | 101:1 | |
Financial resources ratio(2) | | 54:1 | | 53:1 | | 48:1 | | 51:1 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Debt service written: | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 2,698 | | $ | 13,261 | | $ | 13,335 | | $ | 11,943 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 6,348 | | 28,902 | | 16,724 | | 15,131 | |
International | | 3,821 | | 17,154 | | 5,729 | | 3,897 | |
Total debt service written | | $ | 12,867 | | $ | 59,317 | | $ | 35,788 | | $ | 30,970 | |
1. Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.
2. Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
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Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
(a) Present value of gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. We believe PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.
(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income. We believe that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.
(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, plus the net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, after tax discounted at 6%, less deferred acquisition costs, after tax. We believe adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and capital base. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.
(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our in-force book of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. We believe net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.
For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and present value of gross written premiums or PVP, we use 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented.
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| | Contacts: |
| | |
| | Equity investors and media |
| | Sabra Purtill |
| | Managing Director, Investor Relations and Strategic Planning |
| | (212) 408-6044 |
| | spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
| | |
| | Chris McNamee |
| | Vice President, Investor Relations |
| | (212) 261-5509 |
| | cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com |
| | |
| | Fixed income investors |
| | Patrick Early |
| | Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations |
| | (212) 408 6043 |
| | pearly@assuredguaranty.com |
Assured Guaranty Ltd. | | |
30 Woodbourne Avenue | | Michael Walker |
Hamilton HM 08 | | Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations |
Bermuda | | (212) 261-5575 |
www.assuredguaranty.com | | mwalker@assuredguaranty.com |
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