Exhibit 99.2
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Supplement
Third Quarter 2007
September 30, 2007
Table of Contents | | Page |
Assured Guaranty Ltd. | |
| Selected Financial Highlights | 1 |
| Consolidated GAAP Income Statements | 2 |
| Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets | 3 |
| Segment Consolidation | 4-5 |
| Financial Guaranty Direct Segment | 6-7 |
| Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment | 8-9 |
| Mortgage Guaranty Segment | 10 |
| Other Segment | 11 |
| Loss and LAE Reserves and Analysis of Net Claims Paid | 12 |
| Investment Portfolio | 13 |
| Estimated Net Exposure Amortization | 14 |
| Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums | 15 |
| Financial Guaranty Profile | 16-31 |
| Non-Investment Grade Exposures | 32 |
| Closely Monitored Credits | 33 |
| Largest Exposures by Sector | 34-37 |
| Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources | 38 |
| Summary Financial and Statistical Data | 39 |
| | | |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“Assured” or “the Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2006, June 30, 2006, September 30, 2006, March 31, 2007 and June 30, 2007 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding losses, pricing, ratings, capital adequacy and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events. These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments or volatility in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Quarter Ended | | % Change | | Nine Months Ended | | % Change | |
| | September 30, | | versus | | September 30, | | versus | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | | 3Q-06 | | 2007 | | 2006 | | YTD 2006 | |
Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Present value of GWP (PVP) (a) | | $ | 165.5 | | $ | 127.4 | | 30 | % | $ | 397.5 | | $ | 337.6 | | 18 | % |
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP | | 118.0 | | 86.1 | | 37 | % | 268.1 | | 201.1 | | 33 | % |
Upfront financial guaranty GWP | | 47.5 | | 41.3 | | 15 | % | 129.4 | | 136.5 | | (5 | )% |
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP | | 40.3 | | 30.3 | | 33 | % | 114.8 | | 94.2 | | 22 | % |
Financial guaranty GWP | | 87.8 | | 71.6 | | 23 | % | 244.2 | | 230.7 | | 6 | % |
Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP | | 1.4 | | 1.9 | | (26 | )% | 2.9 | | 5.7 | | (49 | )% |
Plus: Other segment GWP | | 0.1 | | 0.1 | | 0 | % | 3.5 | | 4.0 | | (13 | )% |
Total GWP | | $ | 89.3 | | $ | 73.6 | | 21 | % | $ | 250.7 | | $ | 240.5 | | 4 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net (loss) income | | $ | (115.0 | ) | $ | 37.9 | | NM | | $ | (43.2 | ) | $ | 117.3 | | NM | |
Less: After-tax realized losses on investments | | (0.2 | ) | — | | NM | | (1.7 | ) | (1.4 | ) | 21 | % |
Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives | | (162.9 | ) | (1.1 | ) | NM | | (182.5 | ) | 3.0 | | NM | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 48.2 | | $ | 39.0 | | 24 | % | $ | 141.0 | | $ | 115.7 | | 22 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 1,604.4 | | $ | 1,756.9 | | (9 | )% | | | | | | |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (1) | | 614.2 | | 527.9 | | 16 | % | | | | | | |
Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d) | | 525.8 | | 416.6 | | 26 | % | | | | | | |
Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax | | 200.3 | | 182.9 | | 10 | % | | | | | | |
Adjusted book value (c) | | $ | 2,544.1 | | $ | 2,518.4 | | 1 | % | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
ROE, excluding AOCI | | (28.2 | )% | 8.9 | % | | | (3.6 | )% | 9.4 | % | | |
Operating ROE, excluding AOCI and after-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives (b) | | 11.4 | % | 9.4 | % | | | 11.4 | % | 9.4 | % | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Per diluted share: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net (loss) income | | $ | (1.70 | ) | $ | 0.51 | | NM | | $ | (0.64 | ) | $ | 1.57 | | NM | |
Less: After-tax realized losses on investments | | — | | — | | NM | | (0.03 | ) | (0.02 | ) | 50 | % |
Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives | | (2.40 | ) | (0.02 | ) | NM | | (2.69 | ) | 0.04 | | NM | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 0.70 | | $ | 0.53 | | 32 | % | $ | 2.04 | | $ | 1.55 | | 32 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Book value | | $ | 23.69 | | $ | 24.02 | | (1 | )% | | | | | | |
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (1) | | 9.07 | | 7.22 | | 26 | % | | | | | | |
Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d) | | 7.76 | | 5.69 | | 36 | % | | | | | | |
Less: DAC, after tax | | 2.96 | | 2.50 | | 18 | % | | | | | | |
Adjusted book value (c) | | $ | 37.57 | | $ | 34.43 | | 9 | % | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Additional information: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Shares outstanding at the end of period (2) | | 67.7 | | 73.1 | | (7 | )% | | | | | | |
Weighted average basic shares outstanding - GAAP (3) | | 67.8 | | 73.2 | | (7 | )% | 67.7 | | 73.5 | | (8 | )% |
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding - GAAP (3) | | 67.8 | | 74.2 | | (9 | )% | 67.7 | | 74.5 | | (9 | )% |
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP (3) | | 68.9 | | 74.2 | | (7 | )% | 69.0 | | 74.5 | | (7 | )% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated net debt service outstanding | | $ | 226,258 | | $ | 167,382 | | 35 | % | | | | | | |
Consolidated net par outstanding | | 153,695 | | 121,579 | | 26 | % | | | | | | |
Consolidated claims-paying resources | | 3,705 | | 3,337 | | 11 | % | | | | | | |
Gross par written | | 15,320 | | 13,493 | | 14 | % | 38,992 | | 36,906 | | 6 | % |
(1) Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.
(2) 9/30/07 shares outstanding excludes 1.2 million of nonvested restricted stock and 9/30/06 shares outstanding excludes 1.1 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R.
(3) The calculations for weighted average diluted shares outstanding and weighted average basic shares outstanding for GAAP are the same due to the antidilutive effect of options and restricted stock as a result of the net loss for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2007. However, operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the calculation of weighted diluted shares outstanding for operating income includes the dilutive effect of options and restricted stock.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
NM = Not meaningful
1
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Quarter Ended | | % Change | | Nine Months Ended | | % Change | |
| | September 30, | | versus | | September 30, | | versus | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | | 3Q-06 | | 2007 | | 2006 | | YTD 2006 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Revenues | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 89.3 | | $ | 73.6 | | 21 | % | $ | 250.7 | | $ | 240.5 | | 4 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net written premiums | | 80.3 | | 73.1 | | 10 | % | 233.6 | | 234.2 | | (0 | )% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 56.2 | | 51.9 | | 8 | % | 164.3 | | 148.2 | | 11 | % |
Net investment income | | 31.8 | | 28.5 | | 12 | % | 94.2 | | 82.0 | | 15 | % |
Other income | | 0.4 | | — | | NM | | 0.4 | | — | | NM | |
Total revenues | | 88.4 | | 80.4 | | 10 | % | 258.9 | | 230.2 | | 12 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Expenses | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 3.7 | | 0.9 | | 311 | % | (10.1 | ) | (6.0 | ) | 68 | % |
Profit commission expense | | 1.1 | | 1.6 | | (31 | )% | 3.6 | | 4.7 | | (23 | )% |
Acquisition costs | | 10.3 | | 11.3 | | (9 | )% | 32.0 | | 33.4 | | (4 | )% |
Other operating expenses | | 19.9 | | 16.5 | | 21 | % | 59.4 | | 49.3 | | 20 | % |
Interest and related expenses | | 6.5 | | 4.0 | | 63 | % | 19.6 | | 12.0 | | 63 | % |
Total expenses | | 41.5 | | 34.4 | | 21 | % | 104.5 | | 93.4 | | 12 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income before provision for income taxes | | 46.9 | | 46.0 | | 2 | % | 154.4 | | 136.8 | | 13 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total (benefit) provision for income taxes | | (1.3 | ) | 7.0 | | NM | | 13.4 | | 21.1 | | (36 | )% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | 48.2 | | 39.0 | | 24 | % | 141.0 | | 115.7 | | 22 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
After-tax realized losses on investments | | (0.2 | ) | — | | NM | | (1.7 | ) | (1.4 | ) | 21 | % |
After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives | | (162.9 | ) | (1.1 | ) | NM | | (182.5 | ) | 3.0 | | NM | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net (loss) income | | $ | (115.0 | ) | $ | 37.9 | | NM | | $ | (43.2 | ) | $ | 117.3 | | NM | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Per diluted share | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Operating income (b) | | $ | 0.70 | | $ | 0.53 | | 32 | % | $ | 2.04 | | $ | 1.55 | | 32 | % |
After-tax realized losses on investments | | — | | — | | NM | | (0.03 | ) | (0.02 | ) | 50 | % |
After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives | | (2.40 | ) | (0.02 | ) | NM | | (2.69 | ) | 0.04 | | NM | |
Net (loss) income | | $ | (1.70 | ) | $ | 0.51 | | NM | | $ | (0.64 | ) | $ | 1.57 | | NM | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Effect of refundings | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Earned premiums from refundings | | $ | 4.6 | | $ | 4.1 | | 12 | % | $ | 15.9 | | $ | 9.4 | | 69 | % |
Operating income effect | | $ | 2.2 | | $ | 2.1 | | 5 | % | $ | 7.8 | | $ | 4.4 | | 77 | % |
Operating income per diluted share effect | | $ | 0.03 | | $ | 0.03 | | 0 | % | $ | 0.11 | | $ | 0.06 | | 83 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Weighted average shares outstanding | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Basic shares outstanding | | 67.8 | | 73.2 | | (7 | )% | 67.7 | | 73.5 | | (8 | )% |
Plus: effect of options | | — | | 0.6 | | NM | | — | | 0.6 | | NM | |
Plus: effect of restricted stock | | — | | 0.4 | | NM | | — | | 0.4 | | NM | |
Diluted shares outstanding - GAAP * | | 67.8 | | 74.2 | | (9 | )% | 67.7 | | 74.5 | | (9 | )% |
Plus: effect of options | | 0.6 | | — | | NM | | 0.7 | | — | | NM | |
Plus: effect of restricted stock | | 0.6 | | — | | NM | | 0.6 | | — | | NM | |
Diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP * | | 68.9 | | 74.2 | | (7 | )% | 69.0 | | 74.5 | | (7 | )% |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
NM = Not meaningful
* The calculations for weighted average diluted shares outstanding and weighted average basic shares outstanding for GAAP are the same due to the antidilutive effect of options and restricted stock as a result of the net loss for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2007. However, operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the calculation of weighted diluted shares outstanding for operating income includes the dilutive effect of options and restricted stock.
2
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)
| | As of : | |
| | September 30, | | December 31, | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | |
| | | | | |
Assets | | | | | |
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value | | $ | 2,461.8 | | $ | 2,331.1 | |
Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value | | 152.2 | | 134.1 | |
Total investments | | 2,614.0 | | 2,465.1 | |
| | | | | |
Cash and cash equivalents | | 25.2 | | 4.8 | |
Accrued investment income | | 25.7 | | 24.2 | |
Deferred acquisition costs | | 227.5 | | 217.0 | |
Prepaid reinsurance premiums | | 17.4 | | 7.5 | |
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses | | 9.0 | | 10.9 | |
Premiums receivable | | 41.1 | | 41.6 | |
Goodwill | | 85.4 | | 85.4 | |
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments | | 21.3 | | 52.6 | |
Deferred tax asset | | 39.7 | | — | |
Receivables for securities sold | | 5.4 | | 0.6 | |
Other assets | | 25.9 | | 25.6 | |
Total assets | | $ | 3,137.6 | | $ | 2,935.3 | |
| | | | | |
Liabilities and shareholders' equity | | | | | |
Liabilities | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserves | | $ | 724.0 | | $ | 644.5 | |
Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses | | 113.9 | | 120.6 | |
Profit commissions payable | | 19.2 | | 36.0 | |
Reinsurance balances payable | | 8.2 | | 7.2 | |
Current income taxes payable | | 4.4 | | 7.2 | |
Deferred income taxes | | — | | 39.9 | |
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts | | 25.0 | | 21.4 | |
Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments | | 223.3 | | 6.7 | |
Senior notes | | 197.4 | | 197.4 | |
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures | | 149.7 | | 149.7 | |
Liability for tax basis step-up adjustment | | 10.1 | | 15.0 | |
Payables for securities purchased | | 14.7 | | — | |
Other liabilities | | 43.4 | | 39.0 | |
Total liabilities | | 1,533.3 | | 1,284.6 | |
| | | | | |
Shareholders’ equity | | | | | |
Common stock | | 0.7 | | 0.7 | |
Additional paid-in capital | | 721.0 | | 711.3 | |
Retained earnings | | 848.1 | | 896.9 | |
Accumulated other comprehensive income | | 34.6 | | 41.9 | |
Total shareholders’ equity | | 1,604.4 | | 1,650.8 | |
| | | | | |
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity | | $ | 3,137.6 | | $ | 2,935.3 | |
3
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | Quarter Ended September 30, 2007 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 10.3 | | $ | 10.0 | | $ | — | | $ | 20.3 | | | | $ | 20.3 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 77.0 | | 3.0 | | — | | 80.0 | | | | 80.0 | |
International | | 45.4 | | 19.8 | | — | | 65.2 | | | | 65.2 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 132.7 | | $ | 32.8 | | $ | — | | $ | 165.5 | | | | $ | 165.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 64.0 | | $ | 23.8 | | $ | 1.4 | | $ | 89.2 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 89.3 | |
Net written premiums | | 55.0 | | 23.8 | | 1.4 | | 80.3 | | — | | 80.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 31.7 | | 21.6 | | 2.9 | | 56.2 | | — | | 56.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 6.4 | | (3.4 | ) | 0.8 | | 3.7 | | — | | 3.7 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.8 | | 0.4 | | 1.1 | | — | | 1.1 | |
Acquisition costs | | 2.4 | | 7.7 | | 0.2 | | 10.3 | | — | | 10.3 | |
Operating expenses | | 15.1 | | 4.5 | | 0.3 | | 19.9 | | — | | 19.9 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 23.9 | | $ | 9.6 | | $ | 1.6 | | $ | 35.0 | | $ | — | | $ | 35.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 7.8 | | $ | 12.1 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 21.2 | | $ | — | | $ | 21.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 20.2 | % | (15.9 | )% | 26.5 | % | 6.7 | % | | | 6.7 | % |
Expense ratio | | 55.2 | % | 60.1 | % | 27.5 | % | 55.7 | % | | | 55.7 | % |
Combined ratio | | 75.4 | % | 44.2 | % | 54.0 | % | 62.4 | % | | | 62.4 | % |
| | Quarter Ended September 30, 2006 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 8.2 | | $ | 11.4 | | $ | — | | $ | 19.6 | | | | $ | 19.6 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 45.7 | | 3.8 | | — | | 49.5 | | | | 49.5 | |
International | | 36.9 | | 21.4 | | — | | 58.3 | | | | 58.3 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 90.9 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | — | | $ | 127.4 | | | | $ | 127.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 41.9 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 1.9 | | $ | 73.5 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 73.6 | |
Net written premiums | | 41.5 | | 29.7 | | 1.9 | | 73.1 | | — | | 73.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 21.8 | | 25.4 | | 4.9 | | 51.9 | | — | | 51.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (0.3 | ) | 1.8 | | 0.4 | | 1.9 | | (1.0 | ) | 0.9 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 0.7 | | 0.9 | | 1.6 | | — | | 1.6 | |
Acquisition costs | | 2.1 | | 8.9 | | 0.3 | | 11.3 | | — | | 11.3 | |
Operating expenses | | 12.2 | | 3.9 | | 0.4 | | 16.5 | | — | | 16.5 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 15.3 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 31.3 | | $ | (1.0 | ) | $ | 30.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 7.7 | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 20.6 | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 21.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | (1.3 | )% | 7.1 | % | 8.2 | % | 3.7 | % | | | 1.8 | % |
Expense ratio | | 65.7 | % | 53.3 | % | 31.9 | % | 56.6 | % | | | 56.6 | % |
Combined ratio | | 64.4 | % | 60.4 | % | 40.1 | % | 60.3 | % | | | 58.4 | % |
(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
4
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2007 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 34.5 | | $ | 28.8 | | $ | — | | $ | 63.4 | | | | $ | 63.4 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 171.8 | | 9.5 | | — | | 181.2 | | | | 181.2 | |
International | | 114.1 | | 38.9 | | — | | 153.0 | | | | 153.0 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 320.4 | | $ | 77.1 | | $ | — | | $ | 397.5 | | | | $ | 397.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 176.2 | | $ | 68.0 | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 247.2 | | $ | 3.5 | | $ | 250.7 | |
Net written premiums | | 162.9 | | 67.8 | | 2.9 | | 233.6 | | — | | 233.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 88.8 | | 67.2 | | 8.3 | | 164.3 | | — | | 164.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 9.3 | | (19.2 | ) | 1.0 | | (8.9 | ) | (1.3 | ) | (10.1 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 2.2 | | 1.5 | | 3.6 | | — | | 3.6 | |
Acquisition costs | | 7.7 | | 24.0 | | 0.4 | | 32.0 | | — | | 32.0 | |
Operating expenses | | 45.5 | | 12.8 | | 1.0 | | 59.4 | | — | | 59.4 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 62.5 | | $ | 19.8 | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | 86.1 | | $ | (1.3 | ) | $ | 84.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 26.3 | | $ | 47.4 | | $ | 4.4 | | $ | 78.2 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 79.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 10.5 | % | (28.6 | )% | 11.7 | % | (5.4 | )% | | | (6.2 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 59.9 | % | 58.1 | % | 34.5 | % | 57.8 | % | | | 57.8 | % |
Combined ratio | | 70.4 | % | 29.5 | % | 46.2 | % | 52.4 | % | | | 51.6 | % |
| | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2006 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance(1) | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
PVP: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 22.7 | | $ | 49.6 | | $ | — | | $ | 72.3 | | | | $ | 72.3 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 114.3 | | 9.1 | | — | | 123.4 | | | | 123.4 | |
International | | 94.4 | | 47.6 | | — | | 141.9 | | | | 141.9 | |
Total PVP | | $ | 231.4 | | $ | 106.2 | | $ | — | | $ | 337.6 | | | | $ | 337.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 140.5 | | $ | 90.2 | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 236.5 | | $ | 4.0 | | $ | 240.5 | |
Net written premiums | | 139.0 | | 89.5 | | 5.7 | | 234.2 | | — | | 234.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | 63.7 | | 71.8 | | 12.7 | | 148.2 | | — | | 148.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (4.6 | ) | 10.3 | | 0.6 | | 6.3 | | (12.3 | ) | (6.0 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | 2.2 | | 2.5 | | 4.7 | | — | | 4.7 | |
Acquisition costs | | 6.4 | | 26.1 | | 0.9 | | 33.4 | | — | | 33.4 | |
Operating expenses | | 37.6 | | 10.7 | | 1.0 | | 49.3 | | — | | 49.3 | |
Total underwriting expenses | | $ | 39.4 | | $ | 49.2 | | $ | 5.0 | | $ | 93.7 | | $ | (12.3 | ) | $ | 81.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 24.3 | | $ | 22.6 | | $ | 7.7 | | $ | 54.5 | | $ | 12.3 | | $ | 66.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | (7.2 | )% | 14.3 | % | 4.7 | % | 4.3 | % | | | (4.0 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 69.1 | % | 54.2 | % | 34.8 | % | 58.9 | % | | | 58.9 | % |
Combined ratio | | 61.9 | % | 68.5 | % | 39.5 | % | 63.2 | % | | | 54.9 | % |
(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
5
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | | 2Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | Nine Months 2006 | | Nine Months 2007 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | 41.6 | | $ | 98.8 | | $ | 90.9 | | $ | 70.8 | | $ | 83.7 | | $ | 104.0 | | $ | 132.7 | | $ | 231.4 | | $ | 320.4 | |
Less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | 33.2 | | 53.1 | | 69.4 | | 48.6 | | 63.0 | | 68.7 | | 99.7 | | 155.7 | | 231.5 | |
Upfront gross written premiums (GWP) | | 8.5 | | 45.7 | | 21.5 | | 22.2 | | 20.7 | | 35.3 | | 33.0 | | 75.7 | | 88.9 | |
Plus: Installment GWP | | 21.8 | | 22.7 | | 20.4 | | 26.5 | | 28.8 | | 27.4 | | 31.0 | | 64.8 | | 87.3 | |
Financial guaranty direct GWP | | $ | 30.2 | | $ | 68.4 | | $ | 41.9 | | $ | 48.7 | | $ | 49.5 | | $ | 62.7 | | $ | 64.0 | | $ | 140.5 | | $ | 176.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 30.2 | | $ | 68.4 | | $ | 41.9 | | $ | 48.7 | | $ | 49.5 | | $ | 62.7 | | $ | 64.0 | | $ | 140.5 | | $ | 176.2 | |
Net written premiums | | 29.7 | | 67.8 | | 41.5 | | 48.0 | | 48.9 | | 59.0 | | 55.0 | | 139.0 | | 162.9 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Scheduled net earned premiums | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | 0.9 | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | | 1.3 | | 1.5 | | 1.7 | | 2.9 | | 4.5 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 18.6 | | 18.8 | | 18.1 | | 19.8 | | 21.3 | | 21.6 | | 23.5 | | 55.6 | | 66.4 | |
International | | 1.2 | | 1.4 | | 2.7 | | 5.3 | | 4.6 | | 5.2 | | 5.3 | | 5.3 | | 15.2 | |
Total scheduled net earned premiums | | 20.7 | | 21.2 | | 21.8 | | 26.0 | | 27.2 | | 28.3 | | 30.6 | | 63.7 | | 86.0 | |
Net earned premiums from refundings | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 1.7 | | — | | 1.1 | | — | | 2.8 | |
Total net earned premiums | | 20.7 | | 21.2 | | 21.8 | | 26.0 | | 28.9 | | 28.3 | | 31.7 | | 63.7 | | 88.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | (2.0 | ) | (0.4 | ) | (0.3 | ) | 0.9 | | 0.2 | | 1.7 | | 0.3 | | (2.7 | ) | 2.2 | |
Portfolio | | 0.2 | | (2.1 | ) | — | | 1.7 | | 1.0 | | — | | 6.1 | | (1.9 | ) | 7.1 | |
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.8 | ) | (2.5 | ) | (0.3 | ) | 2.6 | | 1.2 | | 1.7 | | 6.4 | | (4.6 | ) | 9.3 | |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | | |
Acquisition costs | | 1.8 | | 2.3 | | 2.1 | | 2.2 | | 3.0 | | 2.3 | | 2.4 | | 6.4 | | 7.7 | |
Operating expenses | | 13.4 | | 12.0 | | 12.2 | | 14.7 | | 15.9 | | 14.5 | | 15.1 | | 37.6 | | 45.5 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 13.5 | | $ | 11.8 | | $ | 14.0 | | $ | 19.5 | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | 18.5 | | $ | 23.9 | | $ | 39.4 | | $ | 62.5 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 7.2 | | $ | 9.4 | | $ | 7.7 | | $ | 6.5 | | $ | 8.8 | | $ | 9.8 | | $ | 7.8 | | $ | 24.3 | | $ | 26.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | (8.7 | )% | (11.7 | )% | (1.3 | )% | 10.0 | % | 4.2 | % | 6.0 | % | 20.2 | % | (7.2 | )% | 10.5 | % |
Expense ratio | | 73.8 | % | 67.4 | % | 65.7 | % | 65.1 | % | 65.4 | % | 59.4 | % | 55.2 | % | 69.1 | % | 59.9 | % |
Combined ratio | | 65.1 | % | 55.7 | % | 64.4 | % | 75.1 | % | 69.6 | % | 65.4 | % | 75.4 | % | 61.9 | % | 70.4 | % |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
6
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | | 2Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | Nine Months 2006 | | Nine Months 2007 | |
PVP (a): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 6.0 | | $ | 8.2 | | $ | 13.0 | | $ | 8.8 | | $ | 15.4 | | $ | 10.3 | | $ | 22.7 | | $ | 34.5 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 27.6 | | 41.0 | | 45.7 | | 32.5 | | 44.9 | | 49.9 | | 77.0 | | 114.3 | | 171.8 | |
International | | 5.6 | | 51.8 | | 36.9 | | 25.3 | | 29.9 | | 38.8 | | 45.4 | | 94.4 | | 114.1 | |
Total | | $ | 41.6 | | $ | 98.8 | | $ | 90.9 | | $ | 70.8 | | $ | 83.7 | | $ | 104.0 | | $ | 132.7 | | $ | 231.4 | | $ | 320.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross par written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 283 | | $ | 326 | | $ | 423 | | $ | 628 | | $ | 609 | | $ | 705 | | $ | 695 | | $ | 1,032 | | $ | 2,010 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 4,446 | | 10,943 | | 4,968 | | 6,486 | | 5,776 | | 7,723 | | 9,264 | | 20,357 | | 22,763 | |
International | | 648 | | 2,210 | | 5,375 | | 5,007 | | 2,190 | | 2,393 | | 2,995 | | 8,233 | | 7,578 | |
Total | | $ | 5,377 | | $ | 13,479 | | $ | 10,766 | | $ | 12,121 | | $ | 8,575 | | $ | 10,822 | | $ | 12,954 | | $ | 29,622 | | $ | 32,351 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 3,250 | | $ | 2,471 | | $ | 2,878 | | $ | 3,499 | | $ | 3,989 | | $ | 4,686 | | $ | 5,313 | | $ | 2,878 | | $ | 5,313 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 31,559 | | 38,847 | | 39,191 | | 44,467 | | 48,430 | | 50,562 | | 57,497 | | 39,191 | | 57,497 | |
International | | 7,215 | | 9,806 | | 14,865 | | 19,868 | | 21,319 | | 22,979 | | 25,896 | | 14,865 | | 25,896 | |
Total | | $ | 42,024 | | $ | 51,124 | | $ | 56,935 | | $ | 67,834 | | $ | 73,738 | | $ | 78,227 | | $ | 88,705 | | $ | 56,935 | | $ | 88,705 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net present value of installment premiums in force: (d) | | $ | 265.7 | | $ | 300.5 | | $ | 358.4 | | $ | 408.2 | | $ | 425.3 | | $ | 459.1 | | $ | 533.8 | | $ | 358.4 | | $ | 533.8 | |
Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance | | 48.6 | | 95.2 | | 114.9 | | 136.8 | | 156.8 | | 187.9 | | 210.9 | | 114.9 | | 210.9 | |
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
7
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | | 2Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | Nine Months 2006 | | Nine Months 2007 | |
Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a) | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | 49.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 45.2 | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 32.8 | | $ | 106.2 | | $ | 77.1 | |
Less: Present value of installment premiums (a) | | 11.0 | | 17.7 | | 16.8 | | 20.8 | | 14.2 | | 4.2 | | 18.3 | | 45.5 | | 36.7 | |
Upfront gross written premiums (GWP) | | 9.1 | | 31.9 | | 19.8 | | 24.4 | | 8.9 | | 17.1 | | 14.5 | | 60.8 | | 40.5 | |
Plus: Installment GWP | | 9.7 | | 9.8 | | 9.9 | | 9.3 | | 9.8 | | 8.4 | | 9.3 | | 29.4 | | 27.5 | |
Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP | | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 41.7 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 33.7 | | $ | 18.7 | | $ | 25.5 | | $ | 23.8 | | $ | 90.2 | | $ | 68.0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Treaty | | $ | 12.0 | | $ | 29.1 | | $ | 22.4 | | $ | 19.0 | | $ | 14.2 | | $ | 16.9 | | $ | 15.8 | | $ | 63.4 | | $ | 46.9 | |
Facultative | | 6.8 | | 12.6 | | 7.3 | | 14.7 | | 4.5 | | 8.6 | | 8.0 | | 26.7 | | 21.1 | |
Total gross written premiums | | $ | 18.8 | | $ | 41.7 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 33.7 | | $ | 18.7 | | $ | 25.5 | | $ | 23.8 | | $ | 90.2 | | $ | 68.0 | |
Net written premiums | | 18.5 | | 41.3 | | 29.7 | | 33.7 | | 18.5 | | 25.5 | | 23.8 | | 89.5 | | 67.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Scheduled net earned premiums | | 19.7 | | 21.4 | | 21.3 | | 20.8 | | 18.7 | | 17.3 | | 18.1 | | 62.4 | | 54.1 | |
Net earned premiums from refundings | | 3.6 | | 1.7 | | 4.1 | | 1.8 | | 3.2 | | 6.4 | | 3.5 | | 9.4 | | 13.1 | |
Total net earned premiums | | 23.3 | | 23.1 | | 25.4 | | 22.6 | | 21.9 | | 23.7 | | 21.6 | | 71.8 | | 67.2 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | 2.3 | | 1.8 | | (1.2 | ) | 2.4 | | (7.3 | ) | (2.4 | ) | 2.8 | | 2.9 | | (6.9 | ) |
Portfolio | | 0.5 | | 3.9 | | 3.0 | | 0.4 | | 2.5 | | (8.6 | ) | (6.2 | ) | 7.4 | | (12.3 | ) |
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses | | 2.8 | | 5.7 | | 1.8 | | 2.8 | | (4.8 | ) | (11.0 | ) | (3.4 | ) | 10.3 | | (19.2 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | 0.4 | | 1.0 | | 0.7 | | 0.6 | | 0.9 | | 0.5 | | 0.8 | | 2.2 | | 2.2 | |
Acquisition costs | | 8.7 | | 8.5 | | 8.9 | | 7.9 | | 7.7 | | 8.6 | | 7.7 | | 26.1 | | 24.0 | |
Operating expenses | | 3.4 | | 3.4 | | 3.9 | | 3.8 | | 4.4 | | 3.9 | | 4.5 | | 10.7 | | 12.8 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 15.3 | | $ | 18.5 | | $ | 15.3 | | $ | 15.2 | | $ | 8.3 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 9.6 | | 49.2 | | $ | 19.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 8.0 | | $ | 4.6 | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | 7.4 | | $ | 13.6 | | $ | 21.7 | | $ | 12.1 | | $ | 22.6 | | $ | 47.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | 12.0 | % | 24.6 | % | 7.1 | % | 12.6 | % | (21.9 | )% | (46.4 | )% | (15.9 | )% | 14.3 | % | (28.6 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 53.6 | % | 55.4 | % | 53.3 | % | 54.7 | % | 59.6 | % | 54.9 | % | 60.1 | % | 54.2 | % | 58.1 | % |
Combined ratio | | 65.6 | % | 80.0 | % | 60.4 | % | 67.3 | % | 37.7 | % | 8.5 | % | 44.2 | % | 68.5 | % | 29.5 | % |
(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].
8
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | | 2Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | Nine Months 2006 | | Nine Months 2007 | |
PVP (a): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 8.5 | | $ | 29.7 | | $ | 11.4 | | $ | 30.4 | | $ | 4.7 | | $ | 14.1 | | $ | 10.0 | | $ | 49.6 | | $ | 28.8 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 3.4 | | 2.0 | | 3.8 | | 4.5 | | 3.9 | | 2.5 | | 3.0 | | 9.1 | | 9.5 | |
International | | 8.3 | | 17.9 | | 21.4 | | 10.4 | | 14.4 | | 4.7 | | 19.8 | | 47.6 | | 38.9 | |
Total | | $ | 20.1 | | $ | 49.6 | | $ | 36.5 | | $ | 45.2 | | $ | 23.1 | | $ | 21.3 | | $ | 32.8 | | $ | 106.2 | | $ | 77.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross par written: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 1,631 | | $ | 718 | | $ | 1,475 | | $ | 1,367 | | $ | 754 | | $ | 1,845 | | $ | 1,344 | | $ | 3,825 | | $ | 3,943 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 444 | | 311 | | 453 | | 127 | | 496 | | 491 | | 472 | | 1,208 | | 1,460 | |
International | | 677 | | 775 | | 800 | | 371 | | 537 | | 152 | | 550 | | 2,251 | | 1,238 | |
Total | | $ | 2,752 | | $ | 1,804 | | $ | 2,727 | | $ | 1,865 | | $ | 1,787 | | $ | 2,488 | | $ | 2,366 | | $ | 7,284 | | $ | 6,641 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net par outstanding: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 48,309 | | $ | 48,316 | | $ | 48,335 | | $ | 48,836 | | $ | 48,929 | | $ | 48,801 | | $ | 48,832 | | $ | 48,335 | | $ | 48,832 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 9,387 | | 8,314 | | 8,046 | | 7,116 | | 6,945 | | 6,809 | | 6,155 | | 8,046 | | 6,155 | |
International | | 7,196 | | 7,857 | | 8,263 | | 8,510 | | 9,240 | | 9,318 | | 10,002 | | 8,263 | | 10,002 | |
Total | | $ | 64,893 | | $ | 64,487 | | $ | 64,644 | | $ | 64,462 | | $ | 65,115 | | $ | 64,928 | | $ | 64,989 | | $ | 64,644 | | $ | 64,989 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net present value of installment premiums in force (d) | | $ | 153.8 | | $ | 158.9 | | $ | 164.5 | | $ | 164.9 | | $ | 160.2 | | $ | 155.1 | | $ | 151.4 | | $ | 164.5 | | $ | 151.4 | |
Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance | | 431.2 | | 449.4 | | 453.8 | | 464.8 | | 460.9 | | 462.9 | | 465.0 | | 453.8 | | 465.0 | |
(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
9
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Mortgage Guaranty Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | | 2Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | Nine Months 2006 | | Nine Months 2007 | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 2.6 | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 1.9 | | $ | 2.7 | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 0.5 | | $ | 1.4 | | $ | 5.7 | | $ | 2.9 | |
Net written premiums | | 2.6 | | 1.2 | | 1.9 | | 2.7 | | 1.0 | | 0.5 | | 1.4 | | 5.7 | | 2.9 | |
Net earned premiums | | 4.2 | | 3.7 | | 4.9 | | 9.9 | | 3.1 | | 2.3 | | 2.9 | | 12.7 | | 8.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | — | | 0.1 | | 0.1 | | (0.1 | ) | — | | — | | — | | 0.2 | | — | |
Portfolio and IBNR | | (0.2 | ) | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | (4.9 | ) | 0.1 | | 0.1 | | 0.8 | | 0.4 | | 1.0 | |
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (0.2 | ) | 0.4 | | 0.4 | | (5.0 | ) | 0.1 | | 0.1 | | 0.8 | | 0.6 | | 1.0 | |
Profit commission expense | | 0.9 | | 0.7 | | 0.9 | | 4.3 | | 0.7 | | 0.4 | | 0.4 | | 2.5 | | 1.5 | |
Acquisition costs | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | 1.3 | | 0.2 | | — | | 0.2 | | 0.9 | | 0.4 | |
Operating expenses | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | 0.4 | | 0.3 | | 0.3 | | 0.5 | | 0.3 | | 1.0 | | 1.0 | |
Total expenses | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 1.7 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 0.9 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 1.6 | | $ | 5.0 | | $ | 3.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 2.8 | | $ | 2.0 | | $ | 2.9 | | $ | 8.9 | | $ | 1.8 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | 7.7 | | $ | 4.4 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio | | (3.7 | )% | 9.4 | % | 8.2 | % | (50.7 | )% | 3.3 | % | 4.3 | % | 26.5 | % | 4.7 | % | 11.7 | % |
Expense ratio | | 36.1 | % | 36.4 | % | 31.9 | % | 60.2 | % | 37.8 | % | 39.1 | % | 27.5 | % | 34.8 | % | 34.5 | % |
Combined ratio | | 32.4 | % | 45.8 | % | 40.1 | % | 9.5 | % | 41.1 | % | 43.4 | % | 54.0 | % | 39.5 | % | 46.2 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Risk in force | | $ | 1,970 | | $ | 1,960 | | $ | 2,003 | | $ | 1,822 | | $ | 1,374 | | $ | 1,398 | | $ | 1,374 | | $ | 2,003 | | $ | 1,374 | |
Risk written | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance | | 48.1 | | 45.6 | | 42.6 | | 35.4 | | 33.5 | | 31.6 | | 30.1 | | 42.6 | | 30.1 | |
10
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Other Segment
(dollars in millions)
| | 1Q-06 | | 2Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 4Q-06 | | 1Q-07 | | 2Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | Nine Months 2006 | | Nine Months 2007 | |
Income statement: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Gross written premiums | | $ | 3.8 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 3.3 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 4.0 | | $ | 3.5 | |
Net written premiums | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and loss adjustment expenses | | (1.2 | ) | (10.1 | ) | (1.0 | ) | (1.2 | ) | (1.3 | ) | — | | — | | (12.3 | ) | (1.3 | ) |
Profit commission expense | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Acquisition costs | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Operating expenses | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Total expenses | | $ | (1.2 | ) | $ | (10.1 | ) | $ | (1.0 | ) | $ | (1.2 | ) | $ | (1.3 | ) | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | (12.3 | ) | $ | (1.3 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Underwriting gain | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 10.1 | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 1.2 | | $ | 1.3 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 12.3 | | $ | 1.3 | |
11
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type and Analysis of Net Claims Paid
(dollars in millions)
| | As of September 30, 2007 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Reserves by segment and type: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 3.2 | | $ | 36.9 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 40.2 | | $ | 2.5 | | $ | 42.7 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 6.5 | | 6.5 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits | | 13.9 | | 31.6 | | 3.2 | | 48.7 | | — | | 48.7 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits | | 1.6 | | 14.4 | | — | | 16.0 | | — | | 16.0 | |
Total | | $ | 18.7 | | $ | 82.9 | | $ | 3.3 | | $ | 104.9 | | $ | 9.0 | | $ | 113.9 | |
| | As of December 31, 2006 | |
| | Financial | | Financial | | | | Total | | | | | |
| | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Mortgage | | Financial | | | | | |
| | Direct | | Reinsurance | | Guaranty | | Guaranty | | Other | | Total | |
Reserves by segment and type: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Case | | $ | 1.0 | | $ | 36.1 | | $ | 0.1 | | $ | 37.2 | | $ | 6.8 | | $ | 44.0 | |
IBNR | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 7.4 | | 7.4 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits | | 6.1 | | 29.1 | | 2.2 | | 37.4 | | — | | 37.4 | |
Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits | | 2.2 | | 29.6 | | — | | 31.8 | | — | | 31.8 | |
Total | | $ | 9.3 | | $ | 94.8 | | $ | 2.3 | | $ | 106.4 | | $ | 14.2 | | $ | 120.6 | |
Analysis of Net Claims Paid
| | | | | | Full Year | | Full Year | |
| | 3Q-07 | | 3Q-06 | | 2006 | | 2005 | |
Net claims paid by segment: | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | $ | — | | $ | (1.2 | ) | $ | 1.7 | | $ | 4.7 | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | (5.2 | ) | (0.8 | ) | 11.7 | | (66.6 | ) |
Mortgage Guaranty | | — | | 0.1 | | 0.3 | | 0.5 | |
Total Financial Guaranty | | $ | (5.2 | ) | $ | (1.9 | ) | $ | 13.7 | | $ | (61.4 | ) |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net earned premiums by segment: | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | $ | 31.7 | | $ | 21.8 | | $ | 89.7 | | $ | 74.5 | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | 21.6 | | 25.4 | | 94.4 | | 105.6 | |
Mortgage Guaranty | | 2.9 | | 4.9 | | 22.7 | | 18.6 | |
Total Financial Guaranty | | $ | 56.2 | | $ | 51.9 | | $ | 206.7 | | $ | 198.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Ratio of net claims paid by segment: | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct | | 0.0 | % | (5.5 | )% | 1.9 | % | 6.3 | % |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | (24.1 | )% | (3.2 | )% | 12.4 | % | (63.1 | )% |
Mortgage Guaranty | | 0.0 | % | 2.0 | % | 1.3 | % | 2.7 | % |
Total Financial Guaranty | | (9.3 | )% | (3.7 | )% | 6.6 | % | (30.9 | )% |
12
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio
as of September 30, 2007
(dollars in millions)
| | | | Pre-Tax | | After-Tax | | | | Annualized | |
| | Amortized | | Book | | Book | | | | Investment | |
| | Cost | | Yield | | Yield | | Fair Value | | Income | |
Fixed maturity securities available for sale: | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies | | $ | 106.9 | | 5.0 | % | 4.1 | % | $ | 109.9 | | $ | 5.3 | |
Agency obligations | | 137.6 | | 5.6 | % | 5.1 | % | 141.6 | | 7.7 | |
Foreign government securities | | 65.8 | | 5.2 | % | 3.6 | % | 65.9 | | 3.4 | |
Obligations of states and political subdivisions | | 419.5 | | 4.7 | % | 4.4 | % | 429.4 | | 19.5 | |
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions | | 549.2 | | 4.8 | % | 4.6 | % | 570.9 | | 26.6 | |
Corporate securities | | 145.9 | | 5.8 | % | 4.9 | % | 147.2 | | 8.4 | |
Mortgage-backed securities: | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pass-thrus | | 833.8 | | 5.5 | % | 4.8 | % | 827.7 | | 45.7 | |
PACs | | 72.7 | | 4.9 | % | 4.6 | % | 71.8 | | 3.6 | |
Asset-backed securities | | 97.3 | | 5.2 | % | 4.5 | % | 97.4 | | 5.0 | |
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale | | 2,428.7 | | 5.2 | % | 4.6 | % | 2,461.8 | | 125.3 | |
Short-term investments | | 152.2 | | 5.2 | % | 4.4 | % | 152.2 | | 7.9 | |
Total investments | | $ | 2,580.9 | | 5.2 | % | 4.6 | % | $ | 2,614.0 | | $ | 133.2 | |
Ratings (1): | | Fair Value | | % | |
Treasury and U.S. government obligations | | $ | 109.9 | | 4.5 | % |
Agency obligations | | 141.6 | | 5.8 | % |
AAA/Aaa | | 1,773.7 | | 72.0 | % |
AA/Aa | | 350.8 | | 14.2 | % |
A/A | | 85.8 | | 3.5 | % |
Total | | $ | 2,461.8 | | 100.0 | % |
| | | | | |
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): | | | | 4.4 | |
(1) Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.
13
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization (1)
(dollars in millions)
| | | | Estimated | |
| | Estimated Net | | Ending Net | |
| | Debt Service | | Debt Service | |
| | Amortization | | Outstanding | |
| | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct: | | | | | |
| | | | | |
2007 (as of September 30) | | | | $ | 117,145 | |
2007 (October - December) | | $ | 2,062 | | 115,083 | |
2008 | | 10,399 | | 104,684 | |
2009 | | 8,555 | | 96,129 | |
2010 | | 9,367 | | 86,763 | |
2011 | | 9,326 | | 77,437 | |
| | | | | |
2007-2011 | | 39,708 | | 77,437 | |
2012-2016 | | 48,433 | | 29,004 | |
2017-2021 | | 10,561 | | 18,443 | |
2022-2026 | | 4,357 | | 14,086 | |
After 2026 | | 14,086 | | — | |
Total | | $ | 117,145 | | | |
| | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance: | | | | | |
| | | | | |
2007 (as of September 30) | | | | $ | 109,113 | |
2007 (October - December) | | $ | 1,485 | | 107,628 | |
2008 | | 5,733 | | 101,895 | |
2009 | | 5,989 | | 95,906 | |
2010 | | 5,455 | | 90,451 | |
2011 | | 5,318 | | 85,133 | |
| | | | | |
2007-2011 | | 23,980 | | 85,133 | |
2012-2016 | | 24,616 | | 60,517 | |
2017-2021 | | 20,250 | | 40,267 | |
2022-2026 | | 16,510 | | 23,756 | |
After 2026 | | 23,756 | | — | |
Total | | $ | 109,113 | | | |
| | | | | |
Total Financial Guaranty: | | | | | |
| | | | | |
2007 (as of September 30) | | | | $ | 226,258 | |
2007 (October - December) | | $ | 3,548 | | 222,711 | |
2008 | | 16,132 | | 206,579 | |
2009 | | 14,544 | | 192,035 | |
2010 | | 14,821 | | 177,214 | |
2011 | | 14,644 | | 162,570 | |
| | | | | |
2007-2011 | | 63,688 | | 162,570 | |
2012-2016 | | 73,049 | | 89,521 | |
2017-2021 | | 30,811 | | 58,710 | |
2022-2026 | | 20,867 | | 37,843 | |
After 2026 | | 37,843 | | — | |
Total | | $ | 226,258 | | | |
(1) Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of September 30, 2007. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
14
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums
(dollars in millions)
| | | | Estimated | | | | Total Estimated | |
| | | | Net Unearned | | Estimated | | Net Future | |
| | Net Unearned | | Premium | | Net Future | | Premium | |
| | Premiums (1) | | Amortization | | Installments | | Earnings | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct: | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 (as of September 30) | | $ | 210.9 | | | | | | | |
2007 (4th Qtr) | | 195.2 | | $ | 15.6 | | $ | 17.4 | | $ | 33.0 | |
2008 | | 184.9 | | 10.3 | | 106.2 | | 116.5 | |
2009 | | 176.4 | | 8.5 | | 98.4 | | 106.9 | |
2010 | | 168.2 | | 8.1 | | 87.1 | | 95.2 | |
2011 | | 160.5 | | 7.8 | | 80.1 | | 87.8 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007-2011 | | 160.5 | | 50.4 | | 389.1 | | 439.5 | |
2012-2016 | | 126.0 | | 34.4 | | 208.1 | | 242.5 | |
2017-2021 | | 98.0 | | 28.1 | | 47.2 | | 75.3 | |
2022-2026 | | 74.7 | | 23.3 | | 23.3 | | 46.6 | |
After 2026 | | — | | 74.7 | | 30.5 | | 105.1 | |
Total | | | | $ | 210.9 | | $ | 698.2 | | $ | 909.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance: | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 (as of September 30) | | $ | 465.0 | | | | | | | |
2007 (4th Qtr) | | 452.5 | | $ | 12.4 | | $ | 3.4 | | $ | 15.8 | |
2008 | | 413.6 | | 38.9 | | 27.5 | | 66.5 | |
2009 | | 380.0 | | 33.5 | | 25.5 | | 59.0 | |
2010 | | 348.8 | | 31.2 | | 24.3 | | 55.5 | |
2011 | | 319.5 | | 29.3 | | 22.0 | | 51.3 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007-2011 | | 319.5 | | 145.4 | | 102.7 | | 248.2 | |
2012-2016 | | 199.4 | | 120.1 | | 89.7 | | 209.8 | |
2017-2021 | | 118.8 | | 80.6 | | 61.7 | | 142.2 | |
2022-2026 | | 65.2 | | 53.7 | | 46.5 | | 100.1 | |
After 2026 | | — | | 65.2 | | 73.0 | | 138.3 | |
Total | | | | $ | 465.0 | | $ | 373.6 | | $ | 838.6 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Total Financial Guaranty: | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 (as of September 30) | | $ | 675.8 | | | | | | | |
2007 (4th Qtr) | | 647.7 | | $ | 28.1 | | $ | 20.8 | | $ | 48.9 | |
2008 | | 598.5 | | 49.3 | | 133.7 | | 183.0 | |
2009 | | 556.4 | | 42.1 | | 123.9 | | 166.0 | |
2010 | | 517.0 | | 39.4 | | 111.4 | | 150.7 | |
2011 | | 480.0 | | 37.0 | | 102.1 | | 139.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007-2011 | | 480.0 | | 195.8 | | 491.8 | | 687.6 | |
2012-2016 | | 325.4 | | 154.6 | | 297.8 | | 452.3 | |
2017-2021 | | 216.8 | | 108.6 | | 108.9 | | 217.6 | |
2022-2026 | | 139.8 | | 77.0 | | 69.8 | | 146.8 | |
After 2026 | | — | | 139.8 | | 103.5 | | 243.3 | |
Total | | | | $ | 675.8 | | $ | 1,071.8 | | $ | 1,747.6 | |
(1) Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.
15
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 16)
As of September 30, 2007
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating (8) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating (8) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
Sector: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 1,234 | | A+ | | $ | 12,043 | | A+ | | $ | 13,277 | | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 1,627 | | BBB+ | | 10,254 | | A+ | | 11,881 | | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 183 | | A- | | 9,111 | | A+ | | 9,294 | | A+ | |
Healthcare | | 1,698 | | A- | | 5,546 | | A | | 7,244 | | A | |
Transportation | | 42 | | AAA | | 6,936 | | A | | 6,978 | | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 39 | | AAA | | 1,646 | | BBB+ | | 1,684 | | A- | |
Higher education | | 480 | | BBB | | 968 | | AA- | | 1,447 | | A | |
Housing | | — | | — | | 988 | | AA- | | 988 | | AA- | |
Structured municipal (1) | | — | | — | | 597 | | AAA | | 597 | | AAA | |
Other public finance (2) | | 11 | | BBB | | 744 | | A | | 755 | | A | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 5,313 | | A- | | $ | 48,832 | | A+ | | $ | 54,145 | | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 31,440 | | AAA | | $ | 1,035 | | AA+ | | $ | 32,475 | | AAA | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 7,784 | | AA- | | 1,422 | | A- | | 9,206 | | A+ | |
Commercial receivables (5) | | 6,004 | | AAA | | 2,145 | | A- | | 8,149 | | AA | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 6,880 | | AAA | | 280 | | A+ | | 7,161 | | AAA | |
Consumer receivables (6) | | 3,563 | | AAA | | 589 | | BBB | | 4,152 | | AA+ | |
Other structured finance (7) | | 1,825 | | AA+ | | 683 | | A+ | | 2,509 | | AA | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 57,497 | | AA+ | | $ | 6,155 | | A | | $ | 63,652 | | AA+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 6,947 | | AAA | | $ | 825 | | AAA | | $ | 7,772 | | AAA | |
Regulated utilities | | 3,858 | | A+ | | 3,475 | | BBB+ | | 7,333 | | A- | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 4,962 | | AAA | | 201 | | AA- | | 5,162 | | AAA | |
Infrastructure | | 1,095 | | AA+ | | 3,423 | | BBB+ | | 4,517 | | A- | |
Pooled infrastructure | | 4,294 | | AAA | | — | | — | | 4,294 | | AAA | |
Other international structured finance | | 2,562 | | AA | | 1,153 | | A | | 3,715 | | AA- | |
Public finance | | 863 | | AA | | 552 | | A | | 1,415 | | AA- | |
Future flow | | 638 | | BBB | | 225 | | BBB+ | | 862 | | BBB | |
Insurance securitizations | | 678 | | BBB+ | | 150 | | A | | 828 | | BBB+ | |
Total international | | $ | 25,896 | | AA | | $ | 10,002 | | A- | | $ | 35,898 | | AA- | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total net par outstanding | | $ | 88,705 | | AA+ | | $ | 64,989 | | A | | $ | 153,695 | | AA- | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | | | | | | | | | 1,374 | | N/A | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.
(5) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(6) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(7) Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.
(8) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
16
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Gross Par Written by Asset Type
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
| | 3Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | 3Q-07 | | 3Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | | 3Q-06 | |
Sector: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 249 | | $ | 395 | | $ | 644 | | $ | 116 | | $ | 572 | | $ | 687 | |
Healthcare | | 178 | | 206 | | 384 | | 159 | | 267 | | 426 | |
Tax backed | | 134 | | 228 | | 362 | | 149 | | 318 | | 466 | |
Transportation | | — | | 337 | | 337 | | — | | — | | — | |
Municipal utilities | | 53 | | 143 | | 197 | | — | | 231 | | 231 | |
Higher education | | 81 | | 14 | | 94 | | — | | 11 | | 11 | |
Investor-owned utilities | | — | | 19 | | 19 | | — | | 38 | | 38 | |
Housing | | — | | 1 | | 1 | | — | | 25 | | 25 | |
Structured municipal (1) | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Other public finance (2) | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 13 | | 13 | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 695 | | $ | 1,344 | | $ | 2,039 | | $ | 423 | | $ | 1,475 | | $ | 1,898 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 4,568 | | $ | 105 | | $ | 4,672 | | $ | 2,870 | | $ | 65 | | $ | 2,935 | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 3,388 | | 46 | | 3,433 | | — | | 153 | | 153 | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 700 | | 29 | | 729 | | 503 | | 28 | | 531 | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 609 | | 77 | | 685 | | — | | 10 | | 10 | |
Commercial receivables (6) | | — | | 210 | | 210 | | 1,045 | | 184 | | 1,229 | |
Other structured finance (7) | | — | | 7 | | 7 | | 550 | | 13 | | 563 | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 9,264 | | $ | 472 | | $ | 9,737 | | $ | 4,968 | | $ | 453 | | $ | 5,421 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 1,896 | | $ | 54 | | $ | 1,950 | | $ | 1,137 | | $ | 127 | | $ | 1,264 | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 696 | | 2 | | 698 | | 1,454 | | 2 | | 1,456 | |
Regulated utilities | | 402 | | 271 | | 673 | | 374 | | 83 | | 457 | |
Infrastructure | | — | | 108 | | 108 | | 1,402 | | 550 | | 1,952 | |
Public finance | | — | | 85 | | 85 | | — | | — | | — | |
Other international structured finance | | — | | 29 | | 29 | | 1,007 | | 37 | | 1,045 | |
Future flow | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Insurance securitizations | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Pooled infrastructure | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Total international | | $ | 2,995 | | $ | 550 | | $ | 3,545 | | $ | 5,375 | | $ | 800 | | $ | 6,174 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total gross par written | | $ | 12,954 | | $ | 2,366 | | $ | 15,320 | | $ | 10,766 | | $ | 2,727 | | $ | 13,493 | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.
(5) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(6) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(7) Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.
17
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Gross Par Written by Asset Type
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
| | 9 Months 2007 | | 9 Months 2007 | | 9 Months 2007 | | 9 Months 2006 | | 9 Months 2006 | | 9 Months 2006 | |
Sector: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Tax backed | | $ | 862 | | $ | 1,044 | | $ | 1,905 | | $ | 301 | | $ | 1,083 | | $ | 1,384 | |
General obligation | | 343 | | 1,157 | | 1,500 | | 183 | | 1,219 | | 1,402 | |
Healthcare | | 613 | | 435 | | 1,048 | | 381 | | 566 | | 947 | |
Municipal utilities | | 63 | | 481 | | 544 | | 27 | | 600 | | 628 | |
Transportation | | — | | 516 | | 516 | | — | | 73 | | 73 | |
Higher education | | 129 | | 179 | | 308 | | 139 | | 57 | | 196 | |
Investor-owned utilities | | — | | 129 | | 129 | | — | | 170 | | 170 | |
Housing | | — | | 2 | | 2 | | — | | 29 | | 29 | |
Structured municipal (1) | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Other public finance (2) | | — | | 1 | | 1 | | — | | 28 | | 28 | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 2,010 | | $ | 3,943 | | $ | 5,952 | | $ | 1,032 | | $ | 3,825 | | $ | 4,856 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 12,838 | | $ | 288 | | $ | 13,126 | | $ | 11,558 | | $ | 229 | | $ | 11,787 | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 5,640 | | 369 | | 6,009 | | 321 | | 462 | | 783 | |
Consumer receivables (5) | | 1,900 | | 124 | | 2,024 | | 1,424 | | 167 | | 1,591 | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 1,653 | | 125 | | 1,778 | | 3,500 | | 15 | | 3,515 | |
Commercial receivables (6) | | 155 | | 537 | | 692 | | 3,004 | | 253 | | 3,256 | |
Other structured finance (7) | | 578 | | 17 | | 595 | | 550 | | 82 | | 632 | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 22,763 | | $ | 1,460 | | $ | 24,223 | | $ | 20,357 | | $ | 1,208 | | $ | 21,565 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 4,634 | | $ | 146 | | $ | 4,780 | | $ | 1,958 | | $ | 356 | | $ | 2,315 | |
Regulated utilities | | 1,673 | | 525 | | 2,198 | | 1,365 | | 345 | | 1,710 | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 696 | | 20 | | 716 | | 1,454 | | 2 | | 1,456 | |
Infrastructure | | 157 | | 366 | | 523 | | 1,574 | | 951 | | 2,525 | |
Public finance | | — | | 101 | | 101 | | 374 | | 410 | | 784 | |
Other international structured finance | | 418 | | 82 | | 499 | | 1,007 | | 103 | | 1,110 | |
Future flow | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 84 | | 84 | |
Insurance securitizations | | — | | — | | — | | 500 | | — | | 500 | |
Pooled infrastructure | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Total international | | $ | 7,578 | | $ | 1,238 | | $ | 8,816 | | $ | 8,233 | | $ | 2,251 | | $ | 10,484 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total gross par written | | $ | 32,351 | | $ | 6,641 | | $ | 38,992 | | $ | 29,622 | | $ | 7,284 | | $ | 36,906 | |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.
(5) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(6) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(7) Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.
18
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
| | As of September 30, 2007 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 69,237 | | 78.1 | % | $ | 4,004 | | 6.2 | % | $ | 73,241 | | 47.7 | % |
AA/Aa | | 4,938 | | 5.6 | % | 20,163 | | 31.0 | % | 25,101 | | 16.3 | % |
A/A | | 6,711 | | 7.6 | % | 26,431 | | 40.7 | % | 33,143 | | 21.6 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 7,767 | | 8.8 | % | 13,657 | | 21.0 | % | 21,424 | | 13.9 | % |
Below investment grade | | 52 | | 0.1 | % | 734 | | 1.1 | % | 786 | | 0.5 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 88,705 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 64,989 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 153,695 | | 100.0 | % |
| | As of December 31, 2006 | |
| | Financial Guaranty Direct | | Financial Guaranty Reinsurance | | Consolidated | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 52,606 | | 77.6 | % | $ | 4,448 | | 6.9 | % | $ | 57,054 | | 43.1 | % |
AA/Aa | | 4,028 | | 5.9 | % | 18,955 | | 29.4 | % | 22,983 | | 17.4 | % |
A/A | | 5,757 | | 8.5 | % | 27,065 | | 42.0 | % | 32,822 | | 24.9 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 5,351 | | 7.9 | % | 12,831 | | 19.9 | % | 18,182 | | 13.7 | % |
Below investment grade | | 92 | | 0.1 | % | 1,163 | | 1.8 | % | 1,255 | | 0.9 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 67,834 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 64,462 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 132,296 | | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
19
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of September 30, 2007
| | Net Par | | | |
| | Outstanding | | % | |
U.S.: | | | | | |
California | | $ | 8,161 | | 5.3 | % |
New York | | 5,771 | | 3.8 | % |
Florida | | 3,447 | | 2.2 | % |
Illinois | | 3,182 | | 2.1 | % |
Texas | | 3,150 | | 2.0 | % |
Massachusetts | | 2,810 | | 1.8 | % |
Pennsylvania | | 2,219 | | 1.4 | % |
New Jersey | | 1,992 | | 1.3 | % |
Washington | | 1,932 | | 1.3 | % |
Puerto Rico | | 1,891 | | 1.2 | % |
Other states | | 19,589 | | 12.7 | % |
Mortgage and structured (multiple states) | | 63,652 | | 41.4 | % |
Total U.S. | | $ | 117,796 | | 76.6 | % |
| | | | | |
International: | | | | | |
United Kingdom | | $ | 21,689 | | 14.1 | % |
Germany | | 2,989 | | 1.9 | % |
Australia | | 1,866 | | 1.2 | % |
Ireland | | 680 | | 0.4 | % |
Turkey | | 620 | | 0.4 | % |
Other | | 8,053 | | 5.2 | % |
Total International | | $ | 35,898 | | 23.4 | % |
| | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 153,695 | | 100.0 | % |
20
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Pooled Corporate Obligations
| | September 30, 2007 | | December 31, 2006 | |
| | Net Par | | | | Net Par | | | |
| | Outstanding | | % | | Outstanding | | % | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 37,115 | | 92.2 | % | $ | 25,565 | | 87.6 | % |
AA/Aa | | 3,082 | | 7.7 | % | 3,473 | | 11.9 | % |
A/A | | 6 | | — | | 75 | | 0.3 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 17 | | — | | 17 | | 0.1 | % |
Below investment grade | | 27 | | 0.1 | % | 37 | | 0.1 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 40,247 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 29,167 | | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of September 30, 2007
| | Net Par | | | | | | | |
| | Outstanding | | % | | | | | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | 66 | | 0.2 | % | | | | |
2001 | | 362 | | 0.9 | % | | | | |
2002 | | 699 | | 1.7 | % | | | | |
2003 | | 1,724 | | 4.3 | % | | | | |
2004 | | 1,399 | | 3.5 | % | | | | |
2005 | | 7,511 | | 18.7 | % | | | | |
2006 | | 13,699 | | 34.0 | % | | | | |
2007 year to date | | 14,786 | | 36.7 | % | | | | |
| | $ | 40,247 | | 100.0 | % | | | | |
Distribution of Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of September 30, 2007
| | Net Par | | | | Average | | | |
| | Outstanding | | % | | Rating (1) | | | |
Asset class: | | | | | | | | | | |
CDO of CDOs | | $ | 407 | | 1.0 | % | AAA | | | |
Investment grade corporates | | 4,484 | | 11.1 | % | AAA | | | |
Market value | | 3,782 | | 9.4 | % | AAA | | | |
Commercial real estate | | 739 | | 1.8 | % | AAA | | | |
High yield corporates | | 23,274 | | 57.8 | % | AAA | | | |
Trust preferred | | 7,560 | | 18.8 | % | AAA | | | |
| | $ | 40,247 | | 100.0 | % | AAA | | | |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
21
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (7 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings(1) of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category as of September 30, 2007
| | September 30, 2007 | |
| | US | | International | | Total Net Par | | | |
| | Prime | | Subprime | | Prime | | Subprime | | Outstanding | | % of Total | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 4,201 | | $ | 6,808 | | $ | 4,647 | | $ | 23 | | $ | 15,679 | | 72.8 | % |
AA/Aa | | 510 | | 15 | | 177 | | 17 | | 719 | | 3.3 | % |
A/A | | 1,194 | | 17 | | 198 | | — | | 1,410 | | 6.5 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 3,300 | | 230 | | 99 | | — | | 3,629 | | 16.9 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1 | | 91 | | — | | — | | 92 | | 0.4 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 9,206 | | $ | 7,161 | | $ | 5,122 | | $ | 40 | | $ | 21,529 | | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category and by Year Insured as of September 30, 2007
| | US | | International | | Total Net Par | | | |
| | Prime | | Subprime(2) | | Prime | | Subprime | | Outstanding | | % of Total | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | 100 | | $ | 51 | | $ | 76 | | $ | — | | $ | 227 | | 1.1 | % |
2001 | | 15 | | 18 | | 214 | | — | | 248 | | 1.2 | % |
2002 | | 34 | | 19 | | 213 | | — | | 265 | | 1.2 | % |
2003 | | 94 | | 340 | | 82 | | 38 | | 554 | | 2.6 | % |
2004 | | 595 | | 255 | (2) | 52 | | — | | 902 | | 4.2 | % |
2005 | | 1,837 | | 108 | (2) | 1,296 | | — | | 3,241 | | 15.1 | % |
2006 | | 1,326 | | 4,620 | (2) | 2,562 | | — | | 8,508 | | 39.5 | % |
2007 year to date | | 5,206 | | 1,749 | (2) | 627 | | 2 | | 7,584 | | 35.2 | % |
| | $ | 9,206 | | $ | 7,161 | | $ | 5,122 | | $ | 40 | | $ | 21,529 | | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) and by Financial Guaranty Segment as of September 30, 2007
| | Direct | | | | Reinsurance | | | | Total | | | |
| | Net Par | | % of Direct | | Net Par | | % of Reins. | | Net Par | | | |
| | Outstanding | | Subprime | | Outstanding | | Segment | | Outstanding | | % of Total | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 6,614 | | 96.1 | % | $ | 194 | | 69.3 | % | $ | 6,808 | | 95.1 | % |
AA/Aa | | — | | — | | 15 | | 5.3 | % | 15 | | 0.2 | % |
A/A | | 6 | | 0.1 | % | 11 | | 3.9 | % | 17 | | 0.2 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 209 | | 3.0 | % | 21 | | 7.5 | % | 230 | | 3.2 | % |
Below investment grade | | 52 | | 0.8 | % | 39 | | 14.0 | % | 91 | | 1.3 | % |
| | $ | 6,880 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 280 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 7,161 | | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(2) 100% of the $6.5 billion in U.S. subprime RMBS exposure insured by Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Financial Guaranty Direct segment in 2004, 2005, 2006, and YTD 2007 is rated AAA/Aaa.
22
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (8 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2007
Consolidated Assured Guaranty Ltd.
| | Super | | AAA | | AA | | A | | BBB | | BIG | | | |
| | Senior | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Total | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | — | | $ | 2 | | $ | 1 | | $ | 6 | | $ | 10 | | $ | 33 | | $ | 51 | |
2001 | | — | | 1 | | 0 | | 0 | | 2 | | 15 | | 18 | |
2002 | | — | | 8 | | — | | 0 | | 8 | | 3 | | 19 | |
2003 | | — | | 84 | | — | | 8 | | 209 | | 40 | | 340 | |
2004 | | — | | 252 | | 1 | | 3 | | — | | — | | 255 | |
2005 | | — | | 108 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | — | | 108 | |
2006 | | 3,000 | | 1,619 | | — | | 0 | | 0 | | — | | 4,620 | |
2007 YTD | | 609 | | 1,126 | | 13 | | — | | 1 | | — | | 1,749 | |
| | $ | 3,609 | | $ | 3,199 | | $ | 15 | | $ | 17 | | $ | 230 | | $ | 91 | | $ | 7,161 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% of total | | 50.4 | % | 44.7 | % | 0.2 | % | 0.2 | % | 3.2 | % | 1.3 | % | 100.0 | % |
Financial Guaranty Direct
| | Super | | AAA | | AA | | A | | BBB | | BIG | | | |
| | Senior | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Total | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | |
2001 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 9 | | 9 | |
2002 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 3 | | 3 | |
2003 | | — | | 79 | | — | | 6 | | 209 | | 40 | | 334 | |
2004 | | — | | 193 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 193 | |
2005 | | — | | 88 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 88 | |
2006 | | 3,000 | | 1,600 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 4,600 | |
2007 YTD | | 609 | | 1,044 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 1,653 | |
| | $ | 3,609 | | $ | 3,005 | | $ | — | | $ | 6 | | $ | 209 | | $ | 52 | | $ | 6,880 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% of total | | 52.5 | % | 43.7 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.1 | % | 3.0 | % | 0.8 | % | 100.0 | % |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance
| | Super | | AAA | | AA | | A | | BBB | | BIG | | | |
| | Senior | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Total | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | — | | $ | 2 | | $ | 1 | | $ | 6 | | $ | 10 | | $ | 33 | | $ | 51 | |
2001 | | — | | 1 | | 0 | | 0 | | 2 | | 6 | | 9 | |
2002 | | — | | 8 | | — | | 0 | | 8 | | — | | 16 | |
2003 | | — | | 5 | | — | | 2 | | — | | 0 | | 7 | |
2004 | | — | | 58 | | 1 | | 3 | | — | | — | | 62 | |
2005 | | — | | 20 | | 0 | | 0 | | 0 | | — | | 20 | |
2006 | | — | | 19 | | — | | 0 | | 0 | | — | | 20 | |
2007 YTD | | — | | 82 | | 13 | | — | | 1 | | — | | 96 | |
| | $ | — | | $ | 194 | | $ | 15 | | $ | 11 | | $ | 21 | | $ | 39 | | $ | 280 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% of total | | 0.0 | % | 69.3 | % | 5.3 | % | 3.9 | % | 7.5 | % | 14.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
23
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (9 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings(1) of Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities
| | September 30, 2007 | | | | | |
| | US | | | | Total Net Par | | | |
| | Prime | | HELOC | | Alt-A | | International | | Outstanding | | % | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 541 | | $ | 45 | | $ | 3,615 | | $ | 4,647 | | $ | 8,848 | | 61.8 | % |
AA/Aa | | 498 | | 12 | | — | | 177 | | 687 | | 4.8 | % |
A/A | | 653 | | 12 | | 529 | | 198 | | 1,393 | | 9.7 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 845 | | 2,454 | | — | | 99 | | 3,399 | | 23.7 | % |
Below investment grade | | 1 | | — | | — | | — | | 1 | | — | |
Total exposures | | $ | 2,539 | | $ | 2,523 | | $ | 4,144 | | $ | 5,122 | | $ | 14,328 | | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of September 30, 2007
| | Direct | | | | Reinsurance | | | | Total | | | |
| | Net Par | | | | Net Par | | | | Net Par | | | |
| | Outstanding | | % | | Outstanding | | % | | Outstanding | | % | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 4,002 | | 51.4 | % | $ | 199 | | 14.0 | % | $ | 4,201 | | 45.6 | % |
AA/Aa | | 398 | | 5.1 | % | 112 | | 7.9 | % | 510 | | 5.5 | % |
A/A | | 1,029 | | 13.2 | % | 165 | | 11.6 | % | 1,194 | | 13.0 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 2,355 | | 30.3 | % | 945 | | 66.4 | % | 3,300 | | 35.8 | % |
Below investment grade | | — | | — | | 1 | | 0.1 | % | 1 | | — | |
| | $ | 7,784 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 1,422 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 9,206 | | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Insured as of September 30, 2007
| | US | | | | Total Net Par | | | |
| | Prime | | HELOC | | Alt-A | | International | | Outstanding | | % | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | 98 | | $ | 2 | | $ | — | | $ | 76 | | $ | 176 | | 1.2 | % |
2001 | | 15 | | 0 | | — | | 214 | | 230 | | 1.6 | % |
2002 | | 15 | | 18 | | — | | 213 | | 246 | | 1.7 | % |
2003 | | 73 | | 5 | | 15 | | 82 | | 176 | | 1.2 | % |
2004 | | 145 | | 267 | | 183 | | 52 | | 647 | | 4.5 | % |
2005 | | 263 | | 1,094 | | 480 | | 1,296 | | 3,133 | | 21.9 | % |
2006 | | 1,012 | | 240 | | 73 | | 2,562 | | 3,888 | | 27.1 | % |
2007 year to date | | 916 | | 897 | | 3,392 | | 627 | | 5,833 | | 40.7 | % |
| | $ | 2,539 | | $ | 2,523 | | $ | 4,144 | | $ | 5,122 | | $ | 14,328 | | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
24
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (10 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating (1), Exposure Type and Year Insured as of September 30, 2007
Prime RMBS Exposure
| | Super | | AAA | | AA | | A | | BBB | | BIG | | | |
| | Senior | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Total | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | — | | $ | 1 | | $ | 72 | | $ | 3 | | $ | 22 | | $ | 0 | | $ | 98 | |
2001 | | — | | 11 | | — | | 2 | | 3 | | 0 | | 15 | |
2002 | | — | | 0 | | — | | 12 | | 3 | | — | | 15 | |
2003 | | — | | 4 | | — | | 70 | | — | | — | | 73 | |
2004 | | — | | 33 | | 6 | | 66 | | 40 | | — | | 145 | |
2005 | | — | | 242 | | 12 | | — | | 9 | | — | | 263 | |
2006 | | — | | 99 | | — | | 500 | | 413 | | 1 | | 1,012 | |
2007 YTD | | — | | 153 | | 407 | | — | | 356 | | — | | 916 | |
| | $ | — | | $ | 541 | | $ | 498 | | $ | 653 | | $ | 845 | | $ | 1 | | $ | 2,539 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% of total | | 0.0 | % | 21.3 | % | 19.6 | % | 25.7 | % | 33.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
Home Equity Line of Credit Exposure
| | Super | | AAA | | AA | | A | | BBB | | BIG | | | |
| | Senior | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Total | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 1 | | $ | 1 | | $ | 0 | | $ | — | | $ | 2 | |
2001 | | — | | 0 | | 0 | | — | | — | | — | | 0 | |
2002 | | — | | 1 | | 8 | | 1 | | 8 | | — | | 18 | |
2003 | | — | | — | | 3 | | 1 | | 2 | | — | | 5 | |
2004 | | — | | 44 | | — | | — | | 223 | | — | | 267 | |
2005 | | — | | — | | — | | 9 | | 1,085 | | — | | 1,094 | |
2006 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 240 | | — | | 240 | |
2007 YTD | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 897 | | — | | 897 | |
| | $ | — | | $ | 45 | | $ | 12 | | $ | 12 | | $ | 2,454 | | $ | — | | $ | 2,523 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% of total | | 0.0 | % | 1.8 | % | 0.5 | % | 0.5 | % | 97.3 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
Alt-A Exposure
| | Super | | AAA | | AA | | A | | BBB | | BIG | | | |
| | Senior | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Total | |
Year insured: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2000 and prior | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | |
2001 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
2002 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
2003 | | — | | 15 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 15 | |
2004 | | — | | 183 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 183 | |
2005 | | — | | 480 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 480 | |
2006 | | — | | 73 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 73 | |
2007 YTD | | 113 | | 2,750 | | — | | 529 | | — | | — | | 3,392 | |
| | $ | 113 | | $ | 3,502 | | $ | — | | $ | 529 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 4,144 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% of total | | 2.7 | % | 84.5 | % | 0.0 | % | 12.8 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
25
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (11 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating
| | September 30, 2007 | | December 31, 2006 | |
| | Net Par | | | | Net Par | | | |
| | Outstanding | | % | | Outstanding | | % | |
Ratings (1): | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 59,158 | | 97.0 | % | $ | 45,901 | | 94.4 | % |
AA/Aa | | 1,334 | | 2.2 | % | 1,863 | | 3.8 | % |
A/A | | 102 | | 0.2 | % | 432 | | 0.9 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 391 | | 0.6 | % | 394 | | 0.8 | % |
Below investment grade | | 29 | | — | | 51 | | 0.1 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 61,015 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 48,641 | | 100.0 | % |
Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating
| | September 30, 2007 | | December 31, 2006 | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (1) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (1) | |
Sector: | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 432 | | AAA | | $ | 454 | | AAA | |
Tax backed | | 70 | | AAA | | 112 | | AAA | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 39 | | AAA | | 39 | | AAA | |
Municipal utilities | | 26 | | AAA | | 26 | | AAA | |
Healthcare | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Higher education | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Housing | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Other public finance | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Structured municipal | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Transportation | | — | | — | | — | | — | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 567 | | AAA | | $ | 630 | | AAA | |
| | | | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations | | $ | 27,379 | | AAA | | $ | 21,099 | | AAA | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 5,861 | | AAA | | 5,023 | | AAA | |
Commercial receivables | | 5,703 | | AAA | | 5,999 | | AA | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 2,777 | | AAA | | 589 | | AAA | |
Other structured finance | | 1,087 | | AAA | | 2,315 | | AAA | |
Consumer receivables | | 313 | | AA | | 310 | | AAA | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 43,120 | | AAA | | $ | 35,335 | | AAA | |
| | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations | | $ | 6,422 | | AAA | | $ | 2,126 | | AAA | |
Pooled infrastructure | | 4,294 | | AAA | | 4,616 | | AAA | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity | | 3,932 | | AAA | | 3,351 | | AA+ | |
Other international structured finance | | 1,594 | | AAA | | 1,767 | | AAA | |
Infrastructure | | 490 | | AAA | | 311 | | AAA | |
Regulated utilities | | 450 | | AAA | | 259 | | AAA | |
Future flow | | 98 | | BBB+ | | 158 | | A- | |
Insurance securitizations | | 41 | | BBB | | 41 | | A- | |
Public finance | | 9 | | AAA | | 49 | | A | |
Total international | | $ | 17,328 | | AAA | | $ | 12,676 | | AAA | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 61,015 | | AAA | | $ | 48,641 | | AAA | |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
26
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (12 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
| | As of September 30, | | As of December 31, | |
| | 2007 | | 2006 | | 2005 | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating (8) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating (8) | | Net Par Outstanding | | Avg. Rating (8) | |
Sector: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
General obligation | | $ | 13,277 | | A+ | | $ | 12,700 | | A+ | | $ | 11,965 | | A+ | |
Tax backed | | 11,881 | | A+ | | 11,812 | | A+ | | 10,671 | | A+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 9,294 | | A+ | | 9,673 | | A+ | | 10,378 | | A+ | |
Healthcare | | 7,244 | | A | | 6,580 | | A | | 6,003 | | A | |
Transportation | | 6,978 | | A | | 6,302 | | A | | 6,407 | | A | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 1,684 | | A- | | 1,580 | | BBB+ | | 1,431 | | A- | |
Higher education | | 1,447 | | A | | 1,282 | | A | | 1,177 | | A | |
Housing | | 988 | | AA- | | 1,083 | | AA- | | 1,148 | | AA- | |
Structured municipal (1) | | 597 | | AAA | | 578 | | AAA | | 829 | | AAA | |
Other public finance (2) | | 755 | | A | | 745 | | A | | 760 | | A | |
Total U.S. public finance | | $ | 54,145 | | A+ | | $ | 52,335 | | A+ | | $ | 50,769 | | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 32,475 | | AAA | | $ | 25,604 | | AAA | | $ | 19,177 | | AAA | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 9,206 | | A+ | | 4,849 | | A | | 5,451 | | A | |
Commercial receivables (5) | | 8,149 | | AA | | 7,879 | | AA | | 4,358 | | AA- | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 7,161 | | AAA | | 6,390 | | AA+ | | 4,221 | | AA+ | |
Consumer receivables (6) | | 4,152 | | AA+ | | 2,663 | | AA- | | 2,413 | | A | |
Other structured finance (7) | | 2,509 | | AA | | 4,199 | | AA | | 2,958 | | AA | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | $ | 63,652 | | AA+ | | $ | 51,583 | | AA+ | | $ | 38,578 | | AA | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Pooled corporate obligations (3) | | $ | 7,772 | | AAA | | $ | 3,563 | | AAA | | $ | 2,111 | | AAA | |
Regulated utilities | | 7,333 | | A- | | 4,780 | | A- | | — | | — | |
Mortgage-backed and home equity (4) | | 5,162 | | AAA | | 4,982 | | AAA | | 2,139 | | AA+ | |
Infrastructure | | 4,517 | | A- | | 3,640 | | BBB+ | | 3,461 | | A- | |
Pooled infrastructure | | 4,294 | | AAA | | 4,616 | | AAA | | — | | — | |
Other international structured finance | | 3,715 | | AA- | | 3,664 | | AA- | | 3,020 | | A | |
Public finance | | 1,415 | | AA- | | 1,202 | | A+ | | 1,456 | | A | |
Future flow | | 862 | | BBB | | 1,008 | | BBB | | 931 | | BBB | |
Insurance securitizations | | 828 | | BBB+ | | 923 | | A- | | — | | — | |
Total international | | $ | 35,898 | | AA- | | $ | 28,378 | | AA- | | $ | 13,118 | | A+ | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total exposures | | $ | 153,695 | | AA- | | $ | 132,296 | | AA- | | $ | 102,465 | | AA- | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Mortgage guaranty risk in force | | $ | 1,374 | | N/A | | $ | 1,822 | | N/A | | $ | 2,332 | | N/A | |
Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio
| | September 30, 2007 | | December 31, 2006 | | December 31, 2005 | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Net Par Outstanding | | % | |
Ratings (8): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
AAA/Aaa | | $ | 73,241 | | 47.7 | % | $ | 57,054 | | 43.1 | % | $ | 34,492 | | 33.7 | % |
AA/Aa | | 25,101 | | 16.3 | % | 22,983 | | 17.4 | % | 19,978 | | 19.5 | % |
A/A | | 33,143 | | 21.6 | % | 32,822 | | 24.9 | % | 30,258 | | 29.5 | % |
BBB/Baa | | 21,424 | | 13.9 | % | 18,182 | | 13.7 | % | 16,404 | | 16.0 | % |
Below investment grade | | 786 | | 0.5 | % | 1,255 | | 0.9 | % | 1,333 | | 1.3 | % |
Total exposures | | $ | 153,695 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 132,296 | | 100.0 | % | $ | 102,465 | | 100.0 | % |
(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.
(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.
(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.
(4) Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.
(5) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
(6) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.
(7) Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.
(8) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
27
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (13 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Direct Collateralized Debt Obligations of Asset-Backed Securities (CDOs of ABS)(1) Net Par Outstanding by Type of CDO, by Year Insured and by Collateral:
| | | | | | Type of Collateral as a Percent of Total Pool | | Ratings as of Sept 30, 2007 | | | | | | | |
Year Insured | | Legal Final Maturity(2) | | Net Par Outstanding | | ABS | | RMBS (Includes Subprime) | | Comm. MBS (CMBS) | | CDOs of Investment Grade Corporate | | CDOs of ABS | | Total Collateral Pool | | U.S. Subprime RMBS | | S&P | | Moody’s | | Original AAA Sub- ordination | | Original Sub- ordination Below Assured | | Current Sub- ordination Below Assured | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CDOs of Mezzanine ABS(3): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2001 | | 2017 | | $ | 120.6 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.1 | % | 25.1 | % | 29.5 | % |
2001 | | 2016 | | 64.0 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 28.1 | % | 28.1 | % | 37.9 | % |
2002 | | 2017 | | 153.3 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 24.6 | % | 24.6 | % | 29.9 | % |
2002 | | 2017 | | 121.6 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.1 | % | 22.1 | % | 25.9 | % |
2002 | | 2017 | | 100.2 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 35.0 | % | 35.0 | % | 44.6 | % |
2002 | | 2017 | | 74.2 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 24.0 | % | 24.0 | % | 30.2 | % |
2003 | | 2018 | | 130.7 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.0 | % | 20.0 | % | 23.8 | % |
2003 | | 2038 | | 88.3 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.0 | % | 38.0 | % | 46.3 | % |
2003 | | 2018 | | 52.4 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 63.0 | % | 63.0 | % | 66.1 | % |
2004 | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2005 | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2007 YTD | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Subtotal: | | $ | 905.4 | | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 27.1 | % | 28.5 | % | 34.3 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CDOs of High Grade ABS(4): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS(5): | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2003 | | 2010 | | 661.0 | | 35 | % | 34 | % | 26 | % | 5 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 0 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 0.0 | % | 12.5 | % | 12.5 | % |
2003 | | 2008 | | 594.0 | | 37 | % | 57 | % | 6 | % | 0 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 32 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 0.0 | % | 10.0 | % | 10.0 | % |
2004 | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2005 | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2007 YTD | | No CDO of ABS business written | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Subtotal: | | $ | 1,255.0 | | 36 | % | 45 | % | 17 | % | 3 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 15 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 0.0 | % | 11.3 | % | 11.3 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total: | | | | $ | 2,160.4 | | 21 | % | 26 | % | 52 | % | 2 | % | 0 | % | 100 | % | 9 | % | AAA | | Aaa | | 11.4 | % | 18.5 | % | 21.0 | % |
(1) A “CDO of ABS” is a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) transaction whose collateral pool consists primarily of asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). ABS transactions securities generally represent an ownership interest in a trust that contains collateral supporting the notes. Those interests are divided into several tranches that can have varying levels of subordination, credit protection triggers and credit ratings.
(2) “Legal Final Maturity” represents the final date for payment specified in the transaction documents and does not take into account prepayments that shorten the expected maturity and weighted average life.
(3) “CDOs of Mezzanine ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of mezzanine tranches rated BBB or lower. The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS had weighted average ratings, based on rating information as of September 30, 2007, as follows: 18% AAA, 6% AA, 12% A, 46% BBB and 18% below investment grade (BIG).
(4) “CDOs of High Grade ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of mezzanine tranches rated single A or higher.
(5) “CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of the senior-most AAA rated securities. Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS was rated, based on rating information as of September 30, 2007: 100% AAA/Aaa.
28
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (14 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment Originated U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding by Year Insured from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007:
| | | | Net Par | | Ratings as of September 30, 2007 | | Subordination(1) | |
Year Insured | | Year Issued | | Outstanding, as of September 30, 2007 | | S&P | | Moody’s | | Original AAA Sub- ordination | | Original Sub- ordination Below Assured | | Current Sub- ordination Below Assured | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2004 | | 2004 | | $ | 17.2 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.3 | % | 23.3 | % | 96.0 | % |
2004 | | 2004 | | 89.8 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.5 | % | 21.5 | % | 81.3 | % |
2004 | | 2004 | | 86.4 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 17.1 | % | 17.1 | % | 76.5 | % |
2004 par insured: | | | | $ | 193.4 | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2005 | | 2005 | | 88.1 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.0 | % | 23.0 | % | 50.8 | % |
2005 par insured: | | | | $ | 88.1 | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | 2005 | | $ | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 24.2 | % | 34.2 | % | 50.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 19.0 | % | 29.0 | % | 44.2 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.5 | % | 32.5 | % | 49.1 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.1 | % | 30.1 | % | 49.3 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.5 | % | 35.5 | % | 56.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.7 | % | 30.7 | % | 53.5 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.1 | % | 32.1 | % | 41.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 24.6 | % | 34.6 | % | 67.9 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 26.5 | % | 36.5 | % | 55.6 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.2 | % | 31.2 | % | 49.4 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.4 | % | 31.4 | % | 40.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.9 | % | 31.9 | % | 76.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.6 | % | 32.6 | % | 65.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.1 | % | 30.1 | % | 41.6 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.8 | % | 31.8 | % | 67.7 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 26.0 | % | 36.0 | % | 49.5 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.7 | % | 31.7 | % | 61.2 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.9 | % | 32.9 | % | 58.2 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.6 | % | 30.6 | % | 39.7 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.6 | % | 32.6 | % | 38.9 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.6 | % | 33.6 | % | 53.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.6 | % | 30.6 | % | 43.7 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.7 | % | 31.7 | % | 42.7 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.6 | % | 33.6 | % | 56.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 18.2 | % | 28.2 | % | 52.1 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 16.4 | % | 26.4 | % | 35.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 17.6 | % | 27.6 | % | 45.3 | % |
2006 | | 2006 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.7 | % | 35.7 | % | 47.5 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.7 | % | 35.7 | % | 56.1 | % |
(1) Subordination refers to the level of credit protection provided by subordinate tranches within the deal structure. Total credit enhancement includes both subordination and the benefit from excess spread.
29
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (15 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment Originated U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding by Year Insured from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 (continued):
| | | | | | Ratings as of September 30, 2007 | | Subordination(1) | |
Year Insured | | Year Issued | | Net Par Outstanding | | S&P | | Moody’s | | Original AAA Sub- ordination | | Original Sub- ordination Below Assured | | Current Sub- ordination Below Assured | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | 2006 | | $ | 100.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.0 | % | 31.0 | % | 43.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 24.2 | % | 24.2 | % | 40.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 19.0 | % | 19.0 | % | 34.2 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.1 | % | 20.1 | % | 39.3 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.5 | % | 25.5 | % | 46.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.7 | % | 20.7 | % | 43.5 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.1 | % | 22.1 | % | 31.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 24.6 | % | 24.6 | % | 57.9 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.2 | % | 21.2 | % | 39.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.9 | % | 21.9 | % | 66.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.6 | % | 22.6 | % | 55.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.1 | % | 20.1 | % | 31.6 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.8 | % | 21.8 | % | 57.7 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.7 | % | 21.7 | % | 51.2 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.9 | % | 22.9 | % | 48.2 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.6 | % | 23.6 | % | 43.4 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.6 | % | 20.6 | % | 33.7 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.6 | % | 23.6 | % | 46.8 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.7 | % | 25.7 | % | 46.1 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 18.2 | % | 18.2 | % | 42.1 | % |
2006 | | 2005 | | 80.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 17.6 | % | 17.6 | % | 35.3 | % |
2006 par insured: | | | | $ | 4,600.2 | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | | 2006 | | $ | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.5 | % | 21.5 | % | 34.6 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.7 | % | 22.7 | % | 35.8 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.3 | % | 25.3 | % | 40.0 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.5 | % | 23.5 | % | 35.2 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 19.8 | % | 19.8 | % | 25.7 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.2 | % | 20.2 | % | 28.6 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 24.9 | % | 24.9 | % | 35.1 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 19.7 | % | 19.7 | % | 29.7 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 25.2 | % | 25.2 | % | 41.8 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.7 | % | 20.7 | % | 31.4 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.0 | % | 21.0 | % | 33.3 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 26.0 | % | 26.0 | % | 39.5 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.5 | % | 20.5 | % | 28.9 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 18.7 | % | 18.7 | % | 23.5 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.3 | % | 22.3 | % | 33.3 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 19.5 | % | 19.5 | % | 30.3 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 17.4 | % | 17.4 | % | 37.9 | % |
(1) Subordination refers to the level of credit protection provided by subordinate tranches within the deal structure. Total credit enhancement includes both subordination and the benefit from excess spread.
30
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (16 of 16)
(dollars in millions)
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment Originated U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding by Year Insured from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 (continued):
| | | | | | Ratings as of September 30, 2007 | | Subordination(1) | |
Year Insured | | Year Issued | | Net Par Outstanding | | S&P | | Moody’s | | Original AAA Sub- ordination | | Original Sub- ordination Below Assured | | Current Sub- ordination Below Assured | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | | 2006 | | $ | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 17.4 | % | 17.4 | % | 24.1 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.1 | % | 22.1 | % | 32.5 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.1 | % | 22.1 | % | 31.5 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.2 | % | 21.2 | % | 27.2 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 18.6 | % | 18.6 | % | 22.1 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.9 | % | 23.9 | % | 27.2 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 26.0 | % | 26.0 | % | 31.7 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.5 | % | 21.5 | % | 28.5 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.7 | % | 21.7 | % | 27.0 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.2 | % | 20.2 | % | 24.5 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 19.2 | % | 19.2 | % | 22.2 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.8 | % | 21.8 | % | 28.5 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.4 | % | 23.4 | % | 30.4 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.2 | % | 20.2 | % | 24.4 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 17.6 | % | 17.6 | % | 20.8 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.4 | % | 21.4 | % | 26.3 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 23.2 | % | 23.2 | % | 26.7 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.1 | % | 22.1 | % | 26.6 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.7 | % | 21.7 | % | 26.0 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 21.6 | % | 21.6 | % | 24.6 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.0 | % | 22.0 | % | 28.8 | % |
2007 | | 2005 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 18.7 | % | 18.7 | % | 22.2 | % |
2007 | | 2006 | | 25.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 22.5 | % | 22.5 | % | 27.9 | % |
2007 | | 2007 | | 44.0 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 20.3 | % | 20.3 | % | 23.3 | %(3) |
2007 | | 2006 | | 608.9 | | AAA | | Aaa | | 29.9 | % | 39.9 | % | 39.9 | % |
YTD 2007 par insured: | | $ | 1,652.9 | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Total | | | | $ | 6,534.7 | | | | | | | | | | | |
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding Underwritten Since January 1, 2004 by Rating(2) and Year of Issue as of September 30, 2007
Year | | Super | | AAA | | AA | | A | | BBB | | BIG | | | |
Issued | | Senior | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Rated | | Total | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2004 | | $ | — | | $ | 193.4 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 193.4 | |
2005 | | 2,100.2 | | 1,713.1 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 3,813.3 | |
2006 | | 1,509.0 | | 975.0 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 2,484.0 | |
2007 | | — | | 44.0 | | — | | — | | — | | — | | 44.0 | |
| | $ | 3,609.2 | | $ | 2,925.5 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | 6,534.7 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
% of total | | 55.2 | % | 44.8 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
(1) Subordination refers to the level of credit protection provided by subordinate tranches within the deal structure. Total credit enhancement includes both subordination and the benefit from excess spread.
(2) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(3) This transaction is a secondary market execution on a deal that is wrapped by another AAA-rated financial guarantor. The underlying security is also rated AAA/Aaa.
31
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures
as of September 30, 2007
(dollars in millions)
| | Weighted Average | | Net Par | | Average | |
Non-Investment Grade Exposures by Asset Type: | | Remaining Life | | Outstanding | | Rating (1) | |
| | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | | | | | | |
Transportation | | 20.5 | | $ | 190 | | B+ | |
Tax backed | | 16.5 | | 73 | | BB | |
Healthcare | | 11.6 | | 56 | | B+ | |
General obligation | | 9.2 | | 35 | | BB+ | |
Municipal utilities | | 10.5 | | 13 | | C | |
Housing | | 13.5 | | 4 | | B- | |
Higher education | | 13.4 | | 1 | | BB+ | |
Investor-owned utilities | | 10.0 | | — | | BB | |
Structured municipal | | — | | — | | — | |
Other public finance | | — | | — | | — | |
Total U.S. public finance | | 16.9 | | $ | 371 | | B+ | |
| | | | | | | |
U.S. structured finance | | | | | | | |
Commercial receivables | | 4.8 | | $ | 124 | | BB | |
Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 7.9 | | 91 | | CCC+ | |
Pooled corporate obligations | | 4.1 | | 27 | | B | |
Consumer receivables | | — | | — | | — | |
Prime mortgage-backed and home equity | | 30.0 | | 1 | | BB | |
Other structured finance | | 8.2 | | 124 | | BB+ | |
Total U.S. structured finance | | 6.7 | | $ | 367 | | BB- | |
| | | | | | | |
International | | | | | | | |
Infrastructure | | 11.8 | | $ | 47 | | BB | |
Other international structured finance | | — | | — | | — | |
Pooled infrastructure | | — | | — | | — | |
Pooled corporate obligations | | — | | — | | — | |
Public finance | | — | | — | | — | |
Total international | | 11.8 | | $ | 47 | | BB | |
| | | | | | | |
Total non-investment grade exposures | | 11.8 | | $ | 786 | | BB- | |
Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of September 30, 2007
Name or Description | | Weighted Average Remaining Life | | Net Par Outstanding | | Average Rating (1) | |
Public Finance Infrastructure Transaction | | 21.1 | | $ | 165 | | BB- | |
Structured Finance Domestic Manufactured Housing Transactions(2) | | 6.9 | | 114 | | BB+ | |
Structured Finance Domestic Auto Fleet Financing Transaction | | 2.7 | | 100 | | BB+ | |
International Airport Facility | | 7.3 | | 31 | | BB | |
Louisiana State Stadium & Exposition District | | 20.4 | | 29 | | BB | |
New Orleans Louisiana Exhibit Hall - Morial | | 16.3 | | 29 | | BB | |
Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation | | 9.6 | | 27 | | BB+ | |
Structured Finance Domestic Franchise Loan Receivable Transactions(3) | | 13.5 | | 24 | | B | |
Structured Finance Domestic Subprime Mortgage-backed Transaction | | 4.3 | | 23 | | BB | |
Public Finance Domestic Transportation Transaction | | 17.2 | | 22 | | D | |
Total | | 12.2 | | $ | 565 | | BB- | |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(2) Exposure comprised of twelve series: 10 series totaling $111.6 million - rated ‘BB+’, $1.3 million rated ‘BB’, and $1.4 million rated ‘B’.
(3) Exposure comprised of two series: one in the amount of $12.6 million and the other for $11.5 million both rated ‘B’.
32
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)
(dollars in millions)
Net Par Outstanding by Credit Monitoring Category (1)
| | September 30, 2007 | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of Credits in Category | |
Description: | | | | | | | | |
Fundamentally sound risk | | $ | 152,877 | | 99.5 | % | | |
| | | | | | | | |
Closely monitored credits: | | | | | | | |
Category 1 | | 628 | | 0.4 | % | 26 | |
Category 2 | | 68 | | — | | 15 | |
Category 3 | | 79 | | 0.1 | % | 17 | |
Category 4 | | 22 | | — | | 16 | |
CMC Total | | 797 | | 0.5 | % | 74 | |
| | | | | | | |
Other below investment grade risk | | 21 | | — | | 49 | |
Total | | $ | 153,695 | | 100.0 | % | | |
| | December 31, 2006 | |
| | Net Par Outstanding | | % | | Number of Credits in Category | |
Description: | | | | | | | | |
Fundamentally sound risk | | $ | 130,944 | | 99.0 | % | | |
| | | | | | | | |
Closely monitored credits: | | | | | | | |
Category 1 | | 855 | | 0.6 | % | 43 | |
Category 2 | | 318 | | 0.2 | % | 13 | |
Category 3 | | 123 | | 0.1 | % | 18 | |
Category 4 | | 22 | | — | | 13 | |
CMC Total | | 1,318 | | 1.0 | % | 87 | |
| | | | | | | |
Other below investment grade risk | | 34 | | — | | 68 | |
Total | | $ | 132,296 | | 100.0 | % | | |
(1) Assured’s surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company’s portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.
33
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 4)
as of September 30, 2007
(dollars in millions)
25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures
| | Net Par | | | |
Revenue Source: | | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | |
State of California General Obligation & Leases | | $ | 1,170 | | A+ | |
City of Chicago General Obligation & Leases | | 723 | | AA- | |
New York City General Obligation & Leases | | 694 | | A+ | |
Commonwealth of Massachusetts General Obligation & Bay Transportation | | 648 | | AA- | |
State of New Jersey General Obligation & Leases | | 637 | | AA- | |
Jefferson County, Alabama Sewer Enterprise | | 578 | | A | |
State of Washington General Obligation | | 562 | | AA | |
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases | | 557 | | BBB- | |
State of New York General Obligation & Leases | | 556 | | AA | |
Metropolitan Transportation Authority (New York) - Transportation Revenue | | 541 | | A | |
Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority | | 541 | | BBB | |
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority | | 491 | | AA | |
Long Island Power Authority | | 437 | | A- | |
Denver International Airport System | | 428 | | A | |
Los Angeles Unified School District | | 426 | | AA | |
City of Houston Water & Sewer System | | 421 | | A+ | |
Port Authority of New York & New Jersey | | 420 | | AA- | |
Energy Northwest | | 413 | | AA | |
Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation | | 392 | | A- | |
San Francisco Airport Commission | | 377 | | A | |
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority | | 372 | | BBB+ | |
District of Columbia General Obligation | | 350 | | A | |
New Jersey Turnpike Authority | | 350 | | A | |
Massachusetts School Building Authority | | 327 | | AA | |
State of Florida General Obligation & Leases | | 318 | | AA | |
Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures | | $ | 12,730 | | | |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(2) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
34
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 4)
as of September 30, 2007
(dollars in millions)
25 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
| | Net Par | | | |
| | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | |
Revenue Source: | | | | | |
Private - Consumer ABS | | $ | 1,200 | | AAA | |
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | | 1,153 | | AAA | |
Field Point III & IV, Limited | | 1,093 | | AA- | |
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D | | 748 | | BBB | |
MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 | | 734 | | AAA | |
Private - CDO | | 709 | | AAA | |
Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited | | 663 | | AA | |
Private - CDO | | 660 | | AAA | |
McDonnell Loan Opportunity Fund | | 646 | | AAA | |
Private - RMBS | | 609 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG ABS | | 594 | | AAA | |
Field Point I & II, Limited | | 583 | | AA- | |
Private - Consumer ABS | | 550 | | AAA | |
Private - CDO | | 530 | | AAA | |
Impac CMB Trust Series 2007-A | | 529 | | A+ | |
Private - Mortgage Backed Securities | | 500 | | A | |
Private - CDO | | 486 | | AAA | |
Private - CDO | | 468 | | AAA | |
Private - Consumer ABS | | 450 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 438 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 438 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 438 | | AAA | |
Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund | | 437 | | AAA | |
Private - Consumer ABS | | 420 | | AAA | |
Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate | | 410 | | AAA | |
Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures | | $ | 15,485 | | | |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(2) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
35
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 3 of 4)
as of September 30, 2007
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Healthcare Exposures
| | Net Par | | | | | |
| | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | | State | |
Revenue Source: | | | | | | | |
Catholic Healthcare West | | $ | 208 | | A | | CA | |
Adventist / Sunbelt Health System | | 179 | | A+ | | FL | |
Covenant Health | | 177 | | A- | | TN | |
Ascension Health Credit Group | | 144 | | AA | | MO | |
Catholic Healthcare Partners | | 132 | | AA- | | OH | |
W.A. Foote Memorial Hospital | | 125 | | A- | | MI | |
Benefis Healthcare Foundation | | 125 | | A- | | MT | |
Adventist Healthcare System West | | 119 | | A | | CA | |
Sutter Health Obligated Group | | 115 | | AA- | | CA | |
Medstar Health Inc. | | 109 | | BBB | | MD | |
Total top 10 healthcare exposures | | $ | 1,434 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
10 Largest International Exposures | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | Net Par | | | | | |
| | Outstanding(2) | | Rating(1) | | | |
Revenue Source: | | | | | | | |
Private - Mortgage Backed Securities | | $ | 1,512 | | AAA | | | |
Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2 | | 1,271 | | AAA | | | |
Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II | | 1,053 | | AAA | | | |
Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC | | 1,029 | | AAA | | | |
International Infrastructure Pool | | 869 | | AAA | | | |
International Infrastructure Pool | | 869 | | AAA | | | |
International Infrastructure Pool | | 809 | | AAA | | | |
Nemus Funding No.1 PLC | | 719 | | AAA | | | |
Taberna Europe CDO II PLC | | 716 | | AAA | | | |
Stichting Profile Securitisation I | | 694 | | AAA | | | |
Total top 10 international exposures | | $ | 9,542 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.
(2) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
36
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 4 of 4)
as of September 30, 2007
(dollars in millions)
10 Largest Mortgage Servicers (Prime and Subprime) Exposures
| | Net Par | |
| | Outstanding(1) | |
Revenue Source: | | | |
Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. | | $ | 3,624 | |
Residential Funding Corporation | | 2,086 | |
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Inc. | | 1,799 | |
European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction) | | 1,512 | |
Northern Rock Plc | | 1,487 | |
Paragon Finance Plc | | 1,029 | |
AMC Mortgage Services | | 776 | |
East West Bancorp. Inc. | | 741 | |
Impac Funding Corporation | | 585 | |
Aurora Loan Services, Inc. | | 490 | |
Total top 10 mortgage servicers exposures | | $ | 14,129 | |
(1) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.
37
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
| | As of September 30, 2007 | | As of December 31, 2006 | |
| | Assured Guaranty Corp. | | Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (1) | | Consolidated | | Assured Guaranty Corp. | | Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (1) | | Consolidated | |
Statutory surplus and reserves | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | $ | 276 | | $ | 473 | | $ | 749 | | $ | 239 | | $ | 444 | | $ | 683 | |
Contingency reserve | | 700 | | — | | 700 | | 631 | | — | | 631 | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | 251 | | 796 | | 1,047 | | 286 | | 741 | | 1,027 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves (3) | | 16 | | 21 | | 37 | | 15 | | 18 | | 33 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | $ | 1,243 | | $ | 1,290 | | $ | 2,533 | | $ | 1,171 | | $ | 1,203 | | $ | 2,374 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Claims paying resources | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Policyholders’ surplus | | $ | 251 | | $ | 796 | | $ | 1,047 | | $ | 286 | | $ | 741 | | $ | 1,027 | |
Contingency reserve | | 700 | | — | | 700 | | 631 | | — | | 631 | |
Qualified statutory capital | | 951 | | 796 | | 1,747 | | 917 | | 741 | | 1,658 | |
Unearned premium reserve (2) | | 276 | | 473 | | 749 | | 239 | | 444 | | 683 | |
Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves (3) | | 16 | | 21 | | 37 | | 15 | | 18 | | 33 | |
Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | 1,243 | | 1,290 | | 2,533 | | 1,171 | | 1,203 | | 2,374 | |
Present value of installment premium (d) | | 459 | | 234 | | 692 | | 356 | | 230 | | 586 | |
Standby line of credit/stop loss | | 280 | | 200 | | 480 | | 455 | | — | | 455 | |
Total claims paying resources | | $ | 1,982 | | $ | 1,724 | | $ | 3,705 | | $ | 1,982 | | $ | 1,433 | | $ | 3,415 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net par insured outstanding | | $ | 82,873 | | $ | 70,922 | | $ | 153,695 | | $ | 68,370 | | $ | 63,927 | | $ | 132,296 | |
Net debt service outstanding | | $ | 116,007 | | $ | 110,408 | | $ | 226,258 | | $ | 85,522 | | $ | 94,652 | | $ | 180,174 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ratios: | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Net par insured to statutory capital | | 87:1 | | 89:1 | | 88:1 | | 75:1 | | 86:1 | | 80:1 | |
Capital ratio (4) | | 122:1 | | 139:1 | | 130:1 | | 93:1 | | 128:1 | | 109:1 | |
Financial resources ratio (5) | | 59:1 | | 64:1 | | 61:1 | | 43:1 | | 66:1 | | 53:1 | |
(1) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers are the Company’s estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.
(2) Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.
(3) Loss and loss adjustment reserves for AG Re are U.S. GAAP based and net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.
(4) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.
(5) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].
38
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
| | Year Ended December 31, | |
| | YTD 2007 | | 2006 | | 2005 | | 2004 | |
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data | | | | | | | | | |
Gross premiums written | | $ | 250.7 | | $ | 325.7 | | $ | 252.1 | | $ | 190.9 | |
Net earned premiums | | 164.3 | | 206.7 | | 198.7 | | 187.9 | |
Net investment income | | 94.2 | | 111.5 | | 96.8 | | 94.8 | |
Total expenses | | 104.5 | | 132.1 | | 64.9 | | 114.6 | |
(Loss) income before provision for income taxes | | (95.5 | ) | 190.0 | | 229.6 | | 233.3 | |
Net (loss) income | | (43.2 | ) | 159.7 | | 188.4 | | 182.8 | |
Operating income | | 141.0 | | 157.2 | | 190.0 | | 141.1 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net (loss) income per diluted share | | $ | (0.64 | ) | $ | 2.15 | | $ | 2.53 | | $ | 2.44 | |
Operating income per diluted share | | $ | 2.04 | | $ | 2.12 | | $ | 2.55 | | $ | 1.88 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Financial Ratios: | | | | | | | | | |
Loss and LAE ratio | | (6.2 | )% | (3.3 | )% | (35.0 | )% | (17.0 | )% |
Expense ratio | | 57.8 | % | 59.2 | % | 58.9 | % | 65.4 | % |
Combined ratio | | 51.6 | % | 55.9 | % | 23.9 | % | 48.4 | % |
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (End of Period) | | | | | | | | | |
Total investments and cash | | $ | 2,639.2 | | $ | 2,469.9 | | $ | 2,256.0 | | $ | 2,157.9 | |
Total assets | | 3,137.6 | | 2,935.3 | | 2,696.3 | | 2,703.7 | |
Unearned premium reserves | | 724.0 | | 644.5 | | 537.1 | | 521.3 | |
Loss and LAE reserves | | 113.9 | | 120.6 | | 128.4 | | 236.2 | |
Senior notes | | 197.4 | | 197.4 | | 197.3 | | 197.4 | |
Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures | | 149.7 | | 149.7 | | — | | — | |
Shareholders’ equity | | 1,604.4 | | 1,650.8 | | 1,661.5 | | 1,527.6 | |
Book value per share | | $ | 23.69 | | $ | 24.44 | | $ | 22.22 | | $ | 20.19 | |
Other Financial Information: | | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service outstanding (end of period) | | $ | 226,258 | | $ | 180,174 | | $ | 145,694 | | $ | 136,120 | |
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) | | 230,588 | | $ | 181,503 | | $ | 148,836 | | $ | 139,129 | |
Net par outstanding (end of period) | | 153,695 | | 132,296 | | 102,465 | | 95,592 | |
Gross par outstanding (end of period) | | 157,476 | | 133,303 | | 105,258 | | 98,221 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Consolidated qualified statutory capital | | 1,747 | | 1,658 | | 1,545 | | 1,351 | |
Consolidated policyholders’ surplus & reserves | | 2,533 | | 2,374 | | 2,182 | | 1,990 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Ratios: | | | | | | | | | |
Par insured to statutory capital | | 88:1 | | 80:1 | | 66:1 | | 71:1 | |
Capital ratio(1) | | 130:1 | | 109:1 | | 94:1 | | 101:1 | |
Financial resources ratio(2) | | 61:1 | | 53:1 | | 48:1 | | 51:1 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Gross debt service written: | | | | | | | | | |
U.S. public finance | | $ | 11,564 | | $ | 13,261 | | $ | 13,335 | | $ | 11,943 | |
U.S. structured finance | | 29,061 | | 28,902 | | 16,724 | | 15,131 | |
International | | 12,313 | | 17,979 | | 5,729 | | 3,897 | |
Total gross debt service written | | $ | 52,938 | | $ | 60,142 | | $ | 35,788 | | $ | 30,970 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
Net debt service written | | 50,001 | | 59,775 | | 35,440 | | 30,680 | |
Net par written | | 36,279 | | 50,541 | | 26,020 | | 23,125 | |
Gross par written | | 38,992 | | 50,892 | | 26,320 | | 23,375 | |
(1) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.
(2) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.
39
Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:
(a) Present value of gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.
(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income (loss) excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income and the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Management believes that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of Assured’s results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of Assured’s insurance business. Net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments are excluded because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income (loss) or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.
(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, plus the net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, after tax discounted at 6%, less deferred acquisition costs, after tax. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and capital base. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.
(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our in-force book of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.
For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and PVP, Assured uses 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on Assured’s investment portfolio for the periods presented.
| | Contacts: |
| | |
| | Equity Investors and Media |
| | Sabra Purtill |
| | Managing Director, Investor Relations |
| | and Strategic Planning |
| | (212) 408-6044 |
| | spurtill@assuredguaranty.com |
| | |
| | Chris McNamee |
| | Vice President, Investor Relations |
| | (212) 261-5509 |
| | cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com |
| | |
Assured Guaranty Ltd. | | Fixed Income Investors |
30 Woodbourne Avenue | | Michael Walker |
Hamilton HM 08 | | Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations |
Bermuda | | (212) 261-5575 |
www.assuredguaranty.com | | mwalker@assuredguaranty.com |